tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-71930071375514391912024-03-05T15:27:36.558-05:00From Old VirginiaBrendanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10506945153264825303noreply@blogger.comBlogger1826125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7193007137551439191.post-10953954183218596972016-04-21T19:35:00.001-04:002016-04-21T19:35:06.250-04:00bronco's beginningsA couple years ago, after Tony Bennett's rebuilding plan earned its first ACC banners, I wrote a column on how coaches earn the trust of their teams. <a href="http://fromoldvirginia.blogspot.com/2014/03/building-program.html" target="_blank">If you do X, then Y will happen</a>. If you set this screen, we'll score an easy basket; if you skip class, you'll sit on the bench; if you work hard and follow my lead long enough, you'll win championships. Coaches demand X every day; the more Y happens, the more trust they'll earn with their team, and in Tony's case, Y happened every time. It turned out to be a popular post, by the way. Possibly the most well-received I've ever written out of 1800+.<br />
<br />
So I was especially, irrationally happy to see this quote from Bronco Mendenhall in <a href="http://www.virginiasports.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/032216aab.html" target="_blank">a Jeff White article</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"I've asked them to do some things that are pretty extreme, with not wearing Virginia gear and no numbers for practice. But it's interesting, because our team simply seems to want to know what standard it will take for us to have success, and they're trusting me that I'm setting that standard for them, and because of that initial level of trust, they're working really hard <b><i>and matter of factly believing that <u>if they do this, we'll have success</u>.</i></b>"
</blockquote>
(Emphasis mine.)<br />
<br />
There it is. If X, then Y. I could not be a happier camper.<br />
<br />
Such is the subtle, ground-up and ground-out way in which a Program is built. Bronco has been speaking ever since his initial press conference about building an earn-it culture, where everything from the logo to the right to practice is earned via a series of hurdles....which is another way of saying if X then Y. What is Bronco doing? He's accelerating the trust-me process. The bigger the X's and Y's, the more trust. Bronco isn't waiting for the little ones, like "block this way and we'll get a first down" - he's putting as many big ones in play as he can, as fast as he can. Better yet, ones he can exercise absolute control over. All that stuff about earning the right to practice and doing drills over and over til they're done right and starting the up-downs over if they're not in sync - the discipline aspect is easy to see, but it's not just that. It's planting the seeds of trust, and of a culture.<br />
<br />
Culture will happen whether or not you put any effort into building it, of course. Which makes it all the more imperative that you work on building it. Quote number two that has me especially and irrationally excited comes from an <a href="http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/91889/new-staffs-at-virginia-virginia-tech-approach-their-missions-a-little-differently" target="_blank">Andrea Adelson article on ESPN</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"The locker room is spotless. 'If you would have walked into our locker room before, it might look like a little kids’ room, stuff everywhere,' running back Taquan Mizzell said.
Smith chimes in: 'We had a pet mouse. Stuart Little was walking around.'"</blockquote>
Does an immaculate locker room have any outward bearing on whether you score enough touchdowns? No, and it never will unless you had players literally breaking their ankle on things. But there's obviously a disciplinary sea change in the works. Is anyone surprised that Mike London had no problem with his players making a trash pile out of their living space?<br />
<br />
Indeed, London was the master of failing to deliver Y. Like when he promised increased focus on special teams discipline yet allowed a player to keep playing right after directly costing his team three points with a boneheaded play. Yes, that was in large part a failure of the special teams coach - but do you think Bronco Mendenhall's staff would make that oversight? We haven't seen them in game action yet, but I'm very confident the answer is no.<br />
<br />
That Mizzell quote is telling in <i>how</i> it's said as well as <i>what's</i> said. The teamwide acceptance of Bronco's methods is actually rather astonishing in its extent. You have to assume some of the usual attrition is in the cards, but there's a general recognition that Bronco's ways are going to pay dividends. That's not a complaint about how he makes them pick up after themselves, it's a tacit acceptance that the new is better than the old. And it's almost like now that there's a little momentum and some visible progress (most notably on the scale) nobody wants to be the first to tap out.<br />
<br />
Much of that is Bronco's approach - he's a hard-ass, yes, but more than that he's a velvet hammer. He is many of the things that Mike London is, and much more that London never was. The head coach at UVA is still a genuine and likable person who insists that his charges go to class, only now he also prioritizes discipline and recruits linemen. (Counting transfer Jared Cohen and the likely transfer from Arizona State, five of Bronco's first six commitments play positions neglected by London.)<br />
<br />
Almost everything we've seen out of Bronco so far is a vast and screamingly obvious contrast to the things London did poorly, and a huge improvement on all of it. Talent is not lacking on this football team - it won three ACC games even with zero discipline and coaching that in several aspects was stunningly inept. Now we have a coach that fills those gaps, gushes about the team's willingness to be coached, and furthermore, perfectly understands what (from this armchair) is the foundation of coaching. X's and O's are vital, but X's and Y's even more so. This is the start of something good.Brendanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10506945153264825303noreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7193007137551439191.post-7411746006178851972016-04-04T21:02:00.002-04:002016-04-04T21:02:47.987-04:00lacrosse bracketologyIt's baaaaack. Even though our lacrosse team isn't. Well, they sort of are, with some much better output of late. They've dug themselves deep, though. More later.<br />
<br />
A re-primer on this exercise. I've done this since 2010, which makes this the seventh year running, and I enjoy it quite a bit. There's some methodology to it, which is mostly proprietary, but it works. The NCAA's factors are awfully simplistic: RPI, SOS, top-X RPI wins (top 5, 10, etc.), average RPI of your wins, average RPI of your losses. Right now, ten conferences get autobids; the ACC is in its last grace period year and will lose its short-lived autobid next year, which is the third season after losing Maryland. I make some assumptions about those, namely, the team with the best record in each conference. 2-0 is better than 1-0. Ties are broken using the Laxpower computer rankings, although those don't factor into the seedings.<br />
<br />
Here's the initial look for 2016:<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVuabNYp6oBRgrhHy3AYtHh6yZdv5fjTN51UeNMZFLWA34TAWjMkS0YBRWF3nFUyywj2MezbPL7Za17ZmwFcLXBV_8Hrn9N9aIosFOloZdHxEjBsED4Mt_Kl76-uZNbTz4fVM8iLMdkmNV/s1600/lax+bracket+9.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="203" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVuabNYp6oBRgrhHy3AYtHh6yZdv5fjTN51UeNMZFLWA34TAWjMkS0YBRWF3nFUyywj2MezbPL7Za17ZmwFcLXBV_8Hrn9N9aIosFOloZdHxEjBsED4Mt_Kl76-uZNbTz4fVM8iLMdkmNV/s320/lax+bracket+9.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
This is going to be difficult this year. Feathers will be ruffled. Whatever your strongly-held opinion of how a bracket should look, it's almost impossible not to offend it. Earlier I said that UVA's struggles were reflective of UVA alone, not those of blue-bloods in general. I'm no longer real convinced of that, not when the Ivy League is dominating the top of the seeding and none of those top teams are Cornell or Princeton. Or when the A-East has as many teams as the ACC.<br />
<br />
On the flip side, you've still got Maryland, Hopkins, and Syracuse, albeit the latter two on the road. Denver is basically a disguised blue-blood, given who coaches them. Notre Dame was always kind of a sleeping giant and they're sort of an honorary blue-blood. But there's plenty of parity this year, and UVA can't get into the tournament just by losing its way through most of an ACC schedule.<br />
<br />
Speaking of which, with wins over Hopkins and Penn they're in no way dead meat yet. But High Point?? That one's going to anchor them down pretty solidly. Loyola, too. And RPI doesn't care whether you lose close or big, so narrow losses to Cuse and ND don't help. The committee may cast a favorable eye on those last two losses, but only as a tiebreaker - it's not going to get them into the conversation if their resume doesn't do it.<br />
<br />
From here, I'd say that UVA needs to beat both Carolina and Duke. Neither are in great shape themselves. The Hoos could, I suppose, lose them both, then beat Georgetown and pull a Brown miracle out of their ass, but Brown ass miracles are difficult to pull off. Duke's name doesn't even appear on that whole page, though. (They're neck and neck with Rutgers, actually.)<br />
<br />
Some bullets on the bracket:<br />
<br />
-- Right now, a bracketologist has to make some choices between teams with lots of losses but at least one solid win (e.g., Penn) and teams with lots of mostly uninspiring wins (e.g. Stony Brook.) The committee has made it very clear in the past they prefer the former.<br />
<br />
-- Penn is an especially shaky case and I'm not happy about putting them 8th. But who should I put there instead? Penn State would be there, but the head-to-head result there is impossible to ignore. Hopkins? Stony Brook? Syracuse? Maybe Syracuse, but, meh. This bracket features a lot of similar reactions. <br />
<br />
-- The fight for the last spot between Harvard and Hopkins is incredibly close. No doubt that will shake out later. But right now, you've got two teams that have piled up losses (mostly to good teams) and also some quality wins. Both are better resumes than, say, Rutgers, which has piled up wins against awful teams and wouldn't even be on the screen without that Hopkins win.<br />
<br />
-- There's good news for teams like UVA and Carolina, though: the likelihood of a bid thief this year is very, very slim. The Patriot, CAA, MAAC, SoCon, and NEC are all 100% one-bid leagues, no matter who wins them. (The lack of any threat from the Patriot League is part of the reason why we can say it's too soon to write any requiems for the blue-bloods. That's normally the league that brings the surprises.) Navy, Air Force, and Towson are by far the best-positioned teams in their leagues, but if they lose the autobid, they're not getting it back at-large. Stony Brook is a bit precarious, but they and Albany are light-years ahead of the rest of their league and if one of them were to drop out of the field, they'd be replaced most likely by an ACC team, or Harvard.<br />
<br />
Upcoming games that matter:<br />
<br />
<i>-- Brown at Penn</i>: Most likely result is to knock Penn out of hosting duties, but not out of the bracket. I hope Brown really sticks around, though, because there's a lot more bad Brown jokes I haven't written yet.<br />
<br />
<i>-- Denver at Villanova</i>: Denver looked invulnerable for a while there, but the Tobacco Road sweep hasn't boosted their resume like it should, and losing to Penn State is a dud. They need another notch or two, to get their seeding to where it feels like it should be.<br />
<br />
<i>-- Ohio State at Johns Hopkins</i>: OSU isn't that scary, but then I wouldn't have said Rutgers is either. And the Buckeyes did beat Marquette. Hopkins can't afford another slip-up.<br />
<br />
<i>-- Harvard at Cornell</i>: This isn't an elimination game, but the loser - especially if it's Cornell - will be in a very deep hole.<br />
<br />
<i>-- Duke at Notre Dame</i>: ACC games always matter.<br />
<br />
<i>-- Virginia at North Carolina</i>: Need this one, bad.<br />
<br />
<i>-- Maryland at Penn State</i>: This one's for control of the B1G - the winner will have only Hopkins to tangle with.Brendanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10506945153264825303noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7193007137551439191.post-33375273098451086842016-03-31T21:25:00.002-04:002016-03-31T21:25:15.531-04:00i wasn't done readingI didn't want to have to revisit this, and we're not going to for very long, but I can't really call myself a writer (even an occasional one which is how things are these days) without some kind of reaction to UVA's tourney exit. It'd be nice if I could just write the other stuff I wanna write and ignore That, but that'd be weird.<br />
<br />
We were <i>this damn close</i> to a miniature form of basketball immortality, until the gut punch that looked at first like pure desperation. There are some armchair coaches floating around on the netz that suggest UVA should've done this or that against the zone, which is stupid because UVA was crushing the zone like a bug. It doesn't take a genius to see that the press is what won Syracuse the game, and for about five minutes of basketball it threw the Hoos for a totally uncharacteristic loop.<br />
<br />
That's what the real nut-kick is: that was a tactic that should never have worked and wouldn't again. UVA is the team with Cali-cool at point guard and the most deliberate coach in the game and veterans everywhere within dead-cat-swinging range. With a big honking lead and less than a quarter to go to the Final Four, this is the team that you'd expect to dribble back around in circles unless a wide-open dunk presented itself without even trying. Time would roll off the clock and Syracuse would be forced to play the defense they'd been playing all game that wasn't working.<br />
<br />
Perhaps Tony expected it, too, placing maybe a bit more trust in his players than was warranted - and this is a team that warrants a metric dumptruck of trust. Many coaches would've called timeout and settled their charges down a bit. Refocused the defense - and reminded them that no Cuse basket = no Cuse press. Tony elected to let them play, let them run, and one imagines he wishes he'd pulled the trigger on a timeout somewhere around the lead dwindling to about seven.<br />
<br />
Nut-kick number two is that the First Book of Tony just slammed shut. I told you it was going to regardless of tourney outcome, I just wish it would've waited another week. This feels like losing the '14 CWS Final to Vanderbilt. You're welcome to take that as a mega-positive sign given what happened the following year, but one part of the reason that was so damn cool is that it was so damn unlikely.<br />
<br />
Also, because it still featured a lot of players who deserved to hoist <i>something</i> just based on longevity alone. Many of the best stories - think Nathan Kirby, Kenny Towns - were still there. Of course, everyone wearing a UVA uniform deserves championships for multitudes of reasons, but the core seniors of this basketball team - Brogdon, Gill, Tobey, Nolte - also own like 75% of the deserving-ness, and that was their last chance. Such are the incredible cruelties of the tournament - if this was football, they'd at least have like a Sugar Bowl championship or something.<br />
<br />
Bowl games are cool that way. You can have your cake and eat it too. That one time we crushed West Virginia, or held Larry Fitzgerald to like a catch or two, they'll always provide nice fuzzy memories. Blowing the BlueTurf Bowl to Fresno State elicits a "whatever." Winning is great. Losing is not that bad, it's just an exhibition anyway. Tournaments are different, especially this one. That Final Four would've lasted forever, but since we got so close and didn't grab it, so will not getting there. The Second Book of Tony will start in the fall, and the ceiling on it is unlimited, but the last chance to write the First Book is over.Brendanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10506945153264825303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7193007137551439191.post-32368370799559553942016-03-26T18:33:00.003-04:002016-03-26T18:33:43.533-04:00game preview: Syracuse<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYWbyA-EEzGAQ_yWyDz3MySKZ8avFTY1-q_7jcYiLC8CLYD2GRxYeEiuMxJ9v6l5Z7XrL92eIRR7a120qiH_pszu25CkBwk2Pvgu21zHy_fBKuFaGCWn7niU8xARYRBKv4bCRY23EDz_87/s1600/2016+Syracuse.bmp" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="198" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYWbyA-EEzGAQ_yWyDz3MySKZ8avFTY1-q_7jcYiLC8CLYD2GRxYeEiuMxJ9v6l5Z7XrL92eIRR7a120qiH_pszu25CkBwk2Pvgu21zHy_fBKuFaGCWn7niU8xARYRBKv4bCRY23EDz_87/s320/2016+Syracuse.bmp" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<i>Date/Time</i>: Sunday, March 27; 6:09<br />
<br />
<i>TV</i>: TBS<br />
<br />
<i>Record against the Orange</i>: 4-3<br />
<br />
<i>Last meeting</i>: UVA 73, SU 65; 1/24/16, Charlottesville<br />
<br />
<i>Last game</i>: UVA 84, ISU 71 (3/25); SU 63, GU 60 (3/25)<br />
<br />
<i>KenPom</i>:<br />
<br />
<i>Tempo</i>:<br />
UVA: 61.6 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#351)</span><br />
SU: 65.3 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#324)</span><br />
<br />
<i>Offense</i>:<br />
UVA: 119.2 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#8)</span><br />
SU: 110.7 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#53)</span><br />
<br />
<i>Defense</i>:<br />
UVA: 91.5 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#4)</span><br />
SU: 94.8 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#19)</span><br />
<br />
<i>Pythag</i>:<br />
UVA: .9544 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#1)</span><br />
SU: .8560 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#28)</span><br />
<i><br /></i>
<i>Projected lineups</i>:<br />
<br />
<i>Virginia</i>:<br />
<br />PG: London Perrantes (10.8 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 4.5 apg)<br />
SG: Malcolm Brogdon (18.4 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 3.0 apg)<br />
SG: Devon Hall (4.4 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 1.9 apg)<br />
SF: Isaiah Wilkins (4.8 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.4 apg)<br />
PF: Anthony Gill (13.9 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 0.8 apg)<br />
<br />
<i>Syracuse</i>:<br />
<br />
PG: Trevor Cooney (12.8 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 2.3 apg)<br />
SG: Malachi Richardson (13.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.2 apg)<br />
SF: Michael Gbinije (17.8 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 4.3 apg)<br />
SF: Tyler Lydon (10.2 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 1.2 apg)<br />
PF: Tyler Roberson (9.0 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 1.4 apg)<br />
<br />
The first five S16 games went by with minimum suspense. That included UVA, which toyed with the idea of blowing the Iowa State game on a couple occasions but dismissed the idea each time. UNC was always going to roll Indiana, so that left ND-Wiscy and SU-GU to try and inject a little drama into the proceedings. They didn't disappoint. Syracuse spent most of their game looking destined to fall a little short, until the fact that Gonzaga only played six guys caught up to them, and the Cuse snatched up the trip to the E8. ND did the same thing to Wisconsin, and now the ACC is guaranteed two slots in the Final Four - no more, and no fewer.<br />
<br />
For UVA, it means a familiar opponent in a game for the right to put up a banner. Syracuse's inclusion in the tournament elicited a "WUT" from a CBS talkinghead during the Selection Show upon announcement, and now they're halfway to the big prize. They've taken a slightly nontraditional route. Having been the direct beneficiary of possibly the biggest upset in tourney history is lucky but irrelevant - it still means they took care of business when other teams didn't.<br />
<br />
The last time these two teams played, it was a closer UVA win than the score indicated, but UVA was scratching its way out of an early-season hole and the chemistry experiment was only just falling into place. Syracuse ended the year on a 1-5 low note, but three straight wins have erased those memories. This time of year, everyone who's left is riding high.<br />
<br />
<b><i>-- UVA on offense</i></b><br />
<br />
All about that 2-3 zone. Probably no defensive scheme is so well-associated with one team as the Syracuse 2-3 zone. It can be tough to attack because it's so packed-in, but UVA's familiarity with it can only help.<br />
<br />
Like Iowa State, Syracuse is a thin team. Five starters who play 30+ minutes, and two bench guys, and that's it. And like Iowa State, this necessitates a minimum of fouling, though the zone and a slow tempo help in that regard. Syracuse is good at keeping out of foul trouble, with heavy assistance of the above two factors. They're also "good at free throw defense" - because it's so hard to drive against the zone, most of their fouls are committed on big men.<br />
<br />
There are two primary ways to attack the zone: Shoot over top of it, or try to catch them over-rotating and get to the middle near the free-throw line. UVA used both to good effect in their last win, with 44.4% three-point shooting and 7-for-11 shooting from Anthony Gill. Gill is a tremendous weapon against the 2-3 because he's at his best when he can face the bucket with a little room, and bull-rush the hoop. When he gets the ball just under the free-throw line, he's one dribble from the bucket and almost unstoppable. This is easy to do against the 2-3 because of where the defenders are positioned, especially if the center has been caught on one side of the lane.<br />
<br />
Another defining characteristic of the zone is its propensity to give up offensive rebounds. Players in a zone aren't tracking a particular player, so boxing out is complicated. Getting in position to do so usually means abandoning your zone. Over the years, Syracuse's defensive rebounding has ranged from kind of bad to completely horrible. It's at the latter end of the spectrum this year. UVA only got four offensive boards in the regular-season game against Cuse, but Mike Tobey has been on a mission lately and recently destroyed ISU, Butler, and Miami on the offensive glass.<br />
<br />
And there will be a role for Tobey. A very big one. Neither Tyler Roberson or DaJuan Coleman range far from the rim, so Tony will feel free to use Tobey without a concern for matchup problems. Syracuse doesn't fast-break much and they need to collapse hard on the glass to rebound, so the new Rampage version of Mike Tobey we've seen in postseason play could be in for yet another big game, mucking it up on the offensive glass. Even in the loss, Gonzaga's Domantas Sabonis was a complete wrecking ball, with 19 points and 17 boards. Using Tobey to bludgeon Cuse into submission will go a long way.<br />
<br />
<b><i>-- UVA on defense</i></b><br />
<br />
Last time we met, on the JPJ hardwood, Cuse kept things close because Michael Gbinije and Malachi Richardson went absolutely nuts from three, combining to shoot 11-for-19 from deep. It's really been only since then that Malcolm Brogdon went ham on the defensive end, and his work on Gbinije this time around will be critical.<br />
<br />
I think it's safe to guess that'll be the matchup. Trevor Cooney is nominally the point guard, but Gbinije has taken over the primary ballhandling role as more of a point forward. He'll take any shot on the court, and is a tremendously adept passer. He'll also play almost every minute and make his defender work hard for all of them, so it won't be 100% Malcolm, but still.<br />
<br />
Syracuse has a bit of a love affair with shooting the three - 42.5% of their shots are from deep. That said, only four of their seven guys will ever shoot one. Gbinije and Tyler Lydon are reasonably dangerous 40% shooters; Cooney and Richardson can get hot but are about average overall. (Cooney in particular has never been the least bit shy to let them fly, and can look alternately like J.J. Redick or a no-thought brickheaver at any given moment.)<br />
<br />
Inside the arc, though, Syracuse is a below-average team. Cooney and Richardson are both sub-40% shooters from two, and Cuse doesn't have anyone above 60%. The last time UVA faced a team without a guy shooting 60% from two was the NC State game. They shot more threes than twos in our last game and kept it close only because of those threes from Richardson and Gbinije.<br />
<br />
There's plenty of talent on this team, and they go six deep with high-quality basketball players. (Franklin Howard is the seventh rotation guy, and he scares nobody.) And Cuse put up a hell of a fight against Gonzaga and saw their efforts pay off. They scrapped impressively hard. But - and you knew this paragraph would have a But - neither do they have anyone who UVA hasn't already figured out how to stop. There's no Georges Niang running around. There might not even be an Andrew Chrabascz. Syracuse's game plan will be to fling away from three and hope they go down. They might, and that would be a fairly big problem. But there isn't much other alternative.<br />
<br />
<b><i>-- Outlook</i></b><br />
<br />
I hate what I'm about to do. Getting too cocky at this time of year has a way of making you look like an ass, and yes I know I'm not the one on the court but that makes it worse because all I can do is flap my gums and hope someone else makes me look smart.<br />
<br />
But here's the deal. Syracuse is a razor-thin team, and laid it all on the court just to beat an even thinner team that used exactly one sub. I was nervous to potentially face Gonzaga, because of Wiltjer and Sabonis, but even had they gotten through, Syracuse made them look pretty average. But they looked pretty average in doing so themselves.<br />
<br />
Meanwhile, UVA is locked in, and completely in tune with Tony Bennett. Tony told them, "Don't tiptoe through this game" before they faced Iowa State, and before the Cyclones could get their wits about them they were down 17-3.<br />
<br />
If Syracuse wins, the story will inevitably be about what an incredibly scrappy bunch the Orange are, playing with a chip on their shoulder after being told they didn't belong, and taking it out on the Big Bad in the bracket. And that could happen. It's happened before. But Syracuse feels much more like a team with the needle on E.<br />
<br />
Final score: <span style="font-size: large;">UVA 72, SU 54</span>Brendanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10506945153264825303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7193007137551439191.post-8188978213861026472016-03-25T15:24:00.002-04:002016-03-25T15:24:59.397-04:00game preview: Iowa State<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />
<i>Date/Time</i>: Friday, March 25; 7:10<br />
<br />
<i>TV</i>: CBS<br />
<br />
<i>Record against the Cyclones</i>: 1-2<br />
<br />
<i>Last meeting</i>: ISU 60, UVA 47; 12/30/10, Charlottesville<br />
<br />
<i>Last game</i>: UVA 77, Butler 69 (3/19); ISU 78, UALR 61 (3/19)<br />
<br />
<i>KenPom</i>:<br />
<br />
<i>Tempo</i>:<br />
UVA: 61.3 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#351)</span><br />
ISU: 71.7 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#55)</span><br />
<br />
<i>Offense</i>:<br />
UVA: 119.2 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#6)</span><br />
ISU: 120.7 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#2)</span><br />
<br />
<i>Defense</i>:<br />
UVA: 91.8 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#4)</span><br />
ISU: 100.2 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#94)</span><br />
<br />
<i>Pythag</i>:<br />
UVA: .9529 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#1)</span><br />
ISU: .8944 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#16)</span><br />
<br />
<i>Projected lineups</i>:<br />
<br />
<i>Virginia</i>:<br />
<br />
PG: London Perrantes (10.9 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 4.3 apg)<br />
SG: Malcolm Brogdon (18.6 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 2.9 apg)<br />
SG: Devon Hall (4.4 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 1.8 apg)<br />
SF: Isaiah Wilkins (4.6 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.4 apg)<br />
PF: Anthony Gill (13.6 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 0.7 apg)<br />
<br />
<i>Iowa State</i>:<br />
<br />
PG: Monte Morris (13.9 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 6.9 apg)<br />
SG: Matt Thomas (10.9 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1.7 apg)<br />
SF: Abdel Nader (13.2 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 1.6 apg)<br />
SF: Georges Niang (20.2 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 3.3 apg)<br />
PF: Jameel McKay (11.3 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 0.9 apg)<br />
<br />
This year's Sweet 16 has a lot of compelling matchups. You have UNC-IU, two of the most old-money programs in the nation. Regional games in ND-Wiscy and A&M-OU, the latter of course being a former conference rivalry of sorts. Virginia and Iowa State wouldn't seem to have much in common. <a href="https://apps-housing.sws.iastate.edu/images/halls/6/Roberts-sidebar.jpg" target="_blank">A few architectural similarities, maybe</a>.<br />
<br />
These two programs are both in a very similar place, though. Fairly or not, these are two teams with a bit of a reputation for underperforming seed expectations. ISU still can't escape the shadow of their loss to 15-seeded Hampton, and last year was a victim of 14-seeded UAB, both in the first round. UVA lost to a lower-seeded MSU twice in a row. Nothing less than the Final Four will match seed expectations for UVA, so there's more pressure on the guys in blue and orange from that perspective.<br />
<br />
Both teams can do wonders for their reputations by winning. ISU has been to the Final Four once - in 1944, with an eight-team field, so, effectively never. UVA hasn't been in over 30 years. Neither has been since the expansion to 64 teams. Both schools are fighting to carve themselves a place in a very difficult conference populated by teams with much more pedigree. As usual, more is at stake than simply the right to play again later.<br />
<br />
<b><i>-- UVA on offense</i></b><br />
<br />
The biggest weakness the Cyclones have is lack of depth. Their five starters are going to be on the court easily over 30 minutes, with only the possible exception of Jameel McKay - and then usually only if he gets into foul trouble. Losing Naz Mitrou-Long early in the season was a huge blow to their backcout depth, and in the frontcourt they never had any to begin with.<br />
<br />
This means they put an emphasis on staying out of foul trouble. There is no backup point guard, for example. There just isn't. Monte Morris gets like two or three minutes' rest at the most. Probably none at all against UVA. He's one of the least fouley players in the country out of sheer necessity. The Cyclones can't be highly aggressive in defending drives to the lane because they can't afford to have starters out for long stretches.<br />
<br />
The result is predictable: not a lot of turnovers, and not great two-point defense. ISU hardly ever sends opponents to the free throw line - only Hofstra's opponents get less of their scoring from free throws. But the catch to that is if you aggressively drive the rim, they might well let you have it. At 6'9, 225, McKay is the biggest guy they have, but he's also the first one off the court and there's no way they'll let Georges Niang (the second-biggest guy) pile up fouls by aggressively contesting every drive attempt.<br />
<br />
Obviously, that means points in the paint can win us the game. Put Malcolm Brogdon into Eff-It Mode and let him go to work. Gill and Tobey, too. I don't think Tobey will play much because ISU uses a small lineup quite a bit, but he might easily have a game like he did against Butler where it only takes him nine minutes to put ten points on the board.<br />
<br />
<b><i>-- UVA on defense</i></b><br />
<br />
Of course we have the metaphorical 800-pound gorilla: Georges Niang. Niang is 6'8" but in practice he's a very big shooting guard. It's exceedingly rare in college hoops to find a guy that big and as comfortable as he is on the dribble. Almost everyone chooses to guard him with someone smaller because big guys don't have a prayer of keeping up with him, which means he needs no space at all to get off a shot. One-handed floaters are a specialty of his. Tony almost has no choice but to use Malcolm Brogdon on him, just about all day long. If Brogdon can hound Niang into a bad shooting day, his star will shoot to the top of the sky.<br />
<br />
Just as ISU doesn't foul much, they get fouled even less. Nobody gets a lower percentage of points from the stripe than the Cyclones. They love the mid-range two - getting all the way to the rim isn't a top priority - and it's not just Niang who's good at hitting them. ISU's two-point shooting percentage is 4th in the country, and even though the rotation is short, only Jameel McKay is not a threat from deep. Everyone else on the floor must be paid some attention behind the arc.<br />
<br />
Rotation-wise, beefy guard Deonte Burton is first off the bench, but he almost always replaces McKay to create what might as well be a five-guard lineup. For this reason, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see Mike Tobey get the start, while McKay is in, and then pull him when ISU goes small. Monte Morris, as mentioned, probably never comes out, and is one of the best point guards in the tourney. Matt Thomas is showing why Tony recruited him so hard (and almost succeeded) - he's a top-notch shooter. Abdel Nader could take better care of the ball than he does, but he does a good job burning teams who pay too much attention to the stars.<br />
<br />
Iowa State games are high-scoring affairs. They combine efficiency with a high tempo and they're unaccustomed to scoring below 80. UVA will have a tough time matching their usual defensive brilliance, but anything under 75 points would put them in terrific position.<br />
<br />
<b><i>-- Outlook</i></b><br />
<br />
Last time the Hoos played Iowa State, it wasn't that long ago. The First Book of Tony was just beginning and the team wasn't very good yet. It was a Cyclone blowout. UVA's leading scorer: K.T. Harrell, with nine. That wasn't even a good ISU team. They were 12-2 after that win, and finished 16-16, sinking like a rock in Big 12 play.<br />
<br />
Everyone's calling it a clash of styles, and it is. Iowa State is one of the quickest teams to shoot in the country. But UVA is stubbornly impossible to speed up. Even with the new shot clock, UVA hasn't played a 70-possession game since 2012, a 40-point blowout of Seattle. This is the kind of team the pack-line was designed to keep from running away with the game.<br />
<br />
And there's one basic deal here. One team plays great on one end of the court; the other team plays great on both of them. UVA can easily lose, if the shooting goes cold or if ISU proves too hard to stop on offense, either of which is very possible. But the prediction has to stick with the more complete and deeper team.<br />
<br />
Final score: <span style="font-size: large;">UVA 83, ISU 73</span>Brendanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10506945153264825303noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7193007137551439191.post-38211202157018941912016-03-22T22:19:00.001-04:002016-03-22T22:19:29.617-04:00sweet ain't easyThe Sweet 16 is so easy and so hard at the same time. All you have to do is win two games in one weekend. How hard can that be? Hard enough that 48 teams can't do it, though; following the play-in games, the cruelties of the tournament eliminate three-quarters of the participants in four days. You get a lot of unhappy press conferences.<br />
<br />
Sweet 16s are interesting partly for who's not in them. The 1 and 2 seeds are viewed as these bracket titans, nigh-impossible to stop on the first weekend. And why not? These are teams that lost, like, twice a month at most. And yet, since the expansion of the tournament to 64 teams, only three tourney fields have failed to knock out at least one 1 or 2 seed in the first weekend. Those would be 1989, 1995, and 2009. (And '09 was a really chalky tournament, notable for featuring all four 1, 2, <i>and</i> 3 seeds in the Sweet 16, but the 1/2 seed carnage in 1989's S16 was something to behold.) This year didn't disappoint in the surprises department, punching out half of its 3 seeds, keeping the 12/5 faith alive, and delivering the 8th-ever 15/2 upset. The list of teams-not-here is long and distinguished, even if you don't count the names that didn't even make the tourney (UCLA, Georgetown, Marquette). Kentucky, Michigan State, Arizona - there's a lot of Final Fours represented there. (30, if you were wondering.)<br />
<br />
This is to say that even though UVA was "supposed" to make the Sweet 16, nothing is actually supposed to happen. Ten of last year's 16 aren't here this year. And so on and so forth. It's minor compared to what <i>could</i> still happen, but the last senior class of the First Book of Tony does have something to hang its hat on.<br />
<br />
-- Voters for the Wooden Award may or may not have turned in their ballots before the Butler game. If they waited, what Malcolm Brogdon did to that game might just sway them. Buddy Hield is a better scorer than Brogdon, so he's the front-runner, but goodness, how many teams in the nation possess a defensive weapon like what UVA unleashed on an unsuspecting Andrew Chrabascz? 24 points for Chrabascz before Brogdon started sitting on him, and zero field goals after.<br />
<br />
-- Which itself is only half of the Malcolm Brogdon story. Last year, right around this time, I was positing that Brogdon could take over games if he wanted to, but didn't because he didn't know he could. I quote from my own season review: "He has it in him to be that clutch scorer who's there when you absolutely, positively need a bucket, and he's flashed that ability. If he figures that out, UVA might not lose a close game all year." Well, UVA did lose close games - all of their losses are close - but the contrast between then and now couldn't be plainer. UVA lost last year in this very same round because 1) they couldn't buy a three and 2) they didn't have anyone to say "eff it I'm goin' deep." Brogdon has discovered his Eff-It Mode. This is a guy who plays 39 out of 40 minutes, rarely fouls, destroys your best scorer, and can't be fouled, left any room to shoot a jumper, or successfully guarded by anyone either smaller or bigger than him.<br />
<br />
-- This comes to attention partly because the sideline reporter for the Butler game actually asked Tony an intelligent question that elicited an insightful answer (about the Brogdon-on-Chrabascz matchup), which is a huge step up from the usual "tell me how you feel" nonsense. Combined with the fact that Mike Kryz-that-guy actually gave his own sideline interview, I suspect something in the Official Powerade.<br />
<br />
-- Putting Louisville in the bracket would've shuffled the whole thing, changed all the matchups, etc., so it'd be wrong to say, "just think how well the ACC would be doing if Louisville were here too." But it <i>is</i> legitimate to be impressed that the ACC is 6 of 16 without even giving a chance to one of the top ten KenPom teams in the country.<br />
<br />
-- I got my first look at the disappointing lacrosse team this past weekend. It was not the disaster I expected, obviously, and two incredibly close losses to the top two teams in the ACC are a bummer, but also a clue that there's still a flicker of brilliance, somewhere. One thing I didn't see was the goaltending that has been the #1 gripe on the boardz. Matt Barrett was excellent, which you don't even need to have watched any lacrosse to know is a 180 from his previous outings. It offered slight hope that a tourney berth can be salvaged, but UVA would have to win - oh, probably every game from here on out to make that happen.Brendanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10506945153264825303noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7193007137551439191.post-38709951238582263952016-03-18T22:41:00.000-04:002016-03-18T22:41:47.373-04:00game preview: Butler<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifk2DtBGTlxPVEF3C0ksmZvdjVxqNDpPOEKhyphenhyphenkox906RZNeANhkQw5TQKuZXLa4PvE68kitqxJC4ja1Q7zKnvh9r5pfBul8cesQVEYRoatoHrTOeysM40CIx7ycUQEIEGKgemO9S8_Tjvo/s1600/2016+Butler.bmp" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="198" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifk2DtBGTlxPVEF3C0ksmZvdjVxqNDpPOEKhyphenhyphenkox906RZNeANhkQw5TQKuZXLa4PvE68kitqxJC4ja1Q7zKnvh9r5pfBul8cesQVEYRoatoHrTOeysM40CIx7ycUQEIEGKgemO9S8_Tjvo/s320/2016+Butler.bmp" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<i>Date/Time</i>: Saturday, March 19; 7:10<br />
<br />
<i>TV</i>: TBS<br />
<br />
<i>Record against the Bulldogs</i>: 0-0<br />
<br />
<i>Last meeting</i>: Never<br />
<br />
<i>Last game</i>: UVA 81, HU 45 (3/17); Butler 71, TT 61 (3/17)<br />
<br />
<i>KenPom</i>:<br />
<br />
<i>Tempo</i>:<br />
UVA: 61.2 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#351)</span><br />
Butler: 68.9 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#169)</span><br />
<br />
<i>Offense</i>:<br />
UVA: 118.6 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#9)</span><br />
Butler: 115.5 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#19)</span><br />
<br />
<i>Defense</i>:<br />
UVA: 91.7 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#4)</span><br />
Butler: 101.1 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#116)</span><br />
<br />
<i>Pythag</i>:<br />
UVA: .9505 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#1)</span><br />
Butler: .8233 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#37)</span><br />
<br />
<i>Projected lineups</i>:<br />
<br />
<i>Virginia</i>:<br />
<br />
PG: London Perrantes (11.0 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 4.4 apg)<br />
SG: Malcolm Brogdon (18.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 2.9 apg)<br />
SG: Devon Hall (4.4 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 1.8 apg)<br />
SF: Isaiah Wilkins (4.6 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.4 apg)<br />
PF: Anthony Gill (13.4 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 0.7 apg)<br />
<br />
<i>Butler</i>:<br />
<br />
PG: Roosevelt Jones (13.7 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 4.8 apg)<br />
SG: Kellen Dunham (16.5 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 1.5 apg)<br />
SF: Kelan Martin (16.0 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.1 apg)<br />
PF: Andrew Chrabascz (10.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.0 apg)<br />
PF: Tyler Wideman (7.9 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 0.8 apg)<br />
<br />
"Survive and advance" doesn't seem like the right phrase for a 31-point stompening, when a 1 seed treats a 16 seed like they're expected to. But then you look at what happened to Sparty - which you can <i>just bet</i> that I'm <i>completely sick</i> about. Torn up inside.** Nothing is granted you at the Dance macabre.<br />
<br />
To drive that point home, this reminder: It's nothing but good teams from here on out. Even if UVA wins and draws Arkansas-Little Rock in the next round, those Trojans will have beaten both the 4 and 5 seeds.<br />
<br />
UVA has never played Butler. Playing them right after Hampton sounds like the most 1% path through the tournament ever; it's too bad there aren't certain other teams in the tourney we could play next. We could drive our La Salle to our Citadel in the Hamptons and have the Butler waiting for us.<br />
<br />
Matchups matter, team attributes matter, and these preview posts exist to discuss them, but the tao of the tournament is always this: the last game never matters. Two years ago UVA made it to the Sweet 16 by curb-stomping Memphis, which ran counter to all the expectations after they had big trouble with 15-seed Coastal Carolina. To get back to those heights this year, UVA has to play a whole new game.<br />
<br />
<b><i>-- UVA on offense</i></b><br />
<br />
The interesting thing about Butler's defense is that there's absolutely nothing interesting about it. Most of the time, you have some thing or another that the opponent is good at or bad at. Butler is slightly good at rebounding and slightly good at getting steals, but there's no crazy good rebounder or ball thief driving those numbers. Kelan Martin is the top board guy, and he's good, not great - and his likely defensive assignment will be Ike Wilkins, so UVA gets a small advantage by pulling him away from the rim a little on that end. (It should also be noted that point guard Roosevelt Jones crashes the board much harder than any point guard we've seen, which throws off your blocking-out calculus quite a bit because your own point guard isn't going to do that on the offensive end.)<br />
<br />
Butler is much bigger than Hampton, which you'd expect from a comparison between Big East and MEAC teams. They have good size in the backcourt that can match UVA's; where Malcolm Brogdon went down in the post quite a bit on Thursday and even went back-to-the-basket, he probably won't do that Saturday. They have enough size in the frontcourt, but not a lot of depth; Andrew Chrabascz and Tyler Wideman are the only players over 6'6". Neither are great rebounders (Wideman is decent, but not great) and a lineup of Gill and Tobey at the same time will likely dominate the boards and get plenty of second chances.<br />
<br />
We go back to those interestingly uninteresting stats, though. The Bulldogs are the biggest "is what they is" team in college basketball. They were rarely upset (one very tight loss to Marquette on the road) and rarely upset anyone (beat Seton Hall on the road and Purdue at a "neutral site" a few miles from their home court.) Both those teams are already out of the tournament, and neither of those wins, nor that loss, really made anyone bat more than one eyelash. Not only that, but Butler rarely allowed more than a point per possession to worse teams, or fewer than a point per to better teams. It's hard to figure that UVA won't get its share of points as well.<br />
<br />
<b><i>-- UVA on defense</i></b><br />
<br />
This side of the ball, Butler has a few things to talk about. Starting with their 3-point shooting, which is just a shade under 40% as a team. We all know that's the approved way to beat UVA, although it's also worth pointing out that shooting well from three doesn't guarantee you the win; ask Syracuse.<br />
<br />
Kellen Dunham and Jordan Gathers are the top distance shooters by percentage, and Butler has one or the other on the floor at all times - though, rarely both. (If the name Gathers rings an old bell, it should. Jordan Gathers is the nephew of Loyola Marymount legend Hank Gathers.) Almost everyone Butler trots out will attempt a three at some point, except for Tyler Wideman and, oddly, point guard Roosevelt Jones. The only one who's something less than a threat to hit is Tyler Lewis (and if <i>that</i> name rings an old bell, it should too; Lewis is an NC State transfer, playing tournament games in his old home arena.)<br />
<br />
Just because Jones doesn't shoot threes doesn't mean he's a pass-first (or pass-only) point guard; he loves to work off the dribble and has shot more twos than anyone on the team by far, including bigs Wideman and Chrabascz - combined. (Well, almost - they've taken 342 two-pointers, Jones, 338.) This is where the game will be won or lost. Everyone knows you beat the pack-line by collapsing it into its natural tendency to try and cut off drives, then kicking to an open three shooter and knocking it down. But if the pack-line is at its best, you won't even start that drive. That's what UVA needs to do, because if Jones isn't driving, the threes dry up quite a bit. I would guess that the game willl start with Brogdon on Dunham, but Tony will put him on Jones to break up Butler's rhythm on offense.<br />
<br />
<b><i>-- Outlook</i></b><br />
<br />
Butler is solid. They were 3-1 against OOC tournament teams, but 2-7 against Big East tourney teams. They take care of the ball, don't foul much, take good shots, etc. - all the hallmarks of a tough out in the tournament - but also don't play great defense, which sooner or later is going to mean their elimination. Sooner, it says here. They didn't succeed in beating anyone you'd consider a national title contender, even an outside one. What they can do well, UVA can do better. Never say never to an upset, but now isn't the time to call for one.<br />
<br />
Final score: <span style="font-size: large;">UVA 75, Butler 66</span><br />
<br />
**I am not.Brendanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10506945153264825303noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7193007137551439191.post-76256845615623306542016-03-16T21:40:00.000-04:002016-03-16T21:40:06.625-04:00game preview: Hampton<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />
<i>Date/Time</i>: Thursday, March 17; 3:10<br />
<br />
<i>TV</i>: truTV<br />
<br />
<i>Record against the Pirates</i>: 7-0<br />
<br />
<i>Last meeting</i>: UVA 69, HU 40; 11/26/13, Charlottesville<br />
<br />
<i>Last game</i>: UNC 61, UVA 57 (3/12); HU 81, SC St. 69 (3/12)<br />
<br />
<i>KenPom</i>:<br />
<br />
<i>Tempo</i>:<br />
UVA: 61.4 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#351)</span><br />
HU: 72.2 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#44)</span><br />
<br />
<i>Offense</i>:<br />
UVA: 118.4 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#9)</span><br />
HU: 100.0 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#244)</span><br />
<br />
<i>Defense</i>:<br />
UVA: 91.9 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#4)</span><br />
HU: 104.8 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#192)</span><br />
<br />
<i>Pythag</i>:<br />
UVA: .9483 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#2)</span><br />
HU: .3663 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#220)</span><br />
<br />
<i>Projected lineups</i>:<br />
<br />
<i>Virginia</i>:<br />
<br />
PG: London Perrantes (11.0 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 4.4 apg)<br />
SG: Malcolm Brogdon (18.7 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 2.8 apg)<br />
SG: Devon Hall (4.5 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1.8 apg)<br />
PF: Isaiah Wilkins (4.6 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.4 apg)<br />
PF: Anthony Gill (13.3 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 0.6 apg)<br />
<br />
<i>Hampton</i>:<br />
<br />
PG: Reginald Johnson (18.3 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 4.1 apg)<br />
SG: Lawrence Cooks (8.0 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 1.5 apg)<br />
SG: Brian Darden (13.2 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 1.9 apg)<br />
SF: Quinton Chievous (17.0 ppg, 11.0 rpg, 2.1 apg)<br />
PF: Dionte Adams (5.2 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 0.6 apg)<br />
<br />
Last chance. This is the best senior class for UVA hoops in quite a while. Three different players in it have won ACC honors of some kind - Player of the Year, DPOY, 6th Man, you name it. The cruel reality of the NCAA tournament is that hundreds of seniors will end their college careers with a loss, and only a tiny handful can say otherwise. Whether Brogdon, Gill, Tobey, Nolte, and Kirven can avoid the usual fate of seniors remains to be seen, but they're writing the last piece of their legacy regardless.<br />
<br />
It's not just the careers of five seniors, though, that are wrapping up. This is also the last page of the First Book of Tony in the UVA basketball bible. These guys - Brogdon in particular, way back in August of 2010 - made their commitment very early in the Tony Bennett era. We're still carrying over from the initial rise to the top. (And yes, with ACC banners in the ceiling and being ranked at times #1 in the AP poll and in KenPom, it's fair to say UVA has been at the very top of the basketball world.) This is the final chapter. When this tourney is over, whether after one, two, or three weeks, the next time the sun rises on UVA basketball it'll be the same author, but a new book. Hopefully it's more "Harry saves the day and gets rid of Voldemort for now" and less "holy shit, they killed Ned."<br />
<br />
<b><i>-- UVA on offense</i></b><br />
<br />
Hampton, on the surface, is a respectable defensive team - the stat that really drags down their defensive efficiency is "free throw defense." I maintain that's not <i>entirely</i> out of one's control - fouling other team's guards will generally result in higher free throw percentages than fouling their bigs - but Hampton's guards aren't very foul-prone. Their bigs are; maybe they foul lane drivers a lot. Regardless, Hampton has played solid defense all year long, to just go by the efficiency stats.<br />
<br />
Against MEAC competition, that is. Against bigger fish, their tempo has worked against them and they've been flattened. Colorado scored 95 in 75 possessions. SMU rolled up 105 points in just 69 possessions, which is more than 1.5 points per.<br />
<br />
Hampton's lineup being essentially a four-guard setup just about all the time, opposing big men tend to have a field day on them, even in losses. The best comparison is probably Colorado's Josh Scott, one of the Pac-12's best centers and scorer of 21 points and 8 rebounds against Hampton. UVA has made no secret of their intent to feed the post early and often, and Anthony Gill should be about that productive.<br />
<br />
Surprisingly for an up-tempo team, Hampton doesn't pressure a lot on defense, so UVA will have room to work. Malcolm Brogdon and Devon Hall will both tower over whoever guards them, and outweigh them by 20-30 pounds, too. Hampton does good work on the boards at both ends, but with the height advantage UVA has at any position you like, there'll be second-chance points, too. Execute as per usual and the scoreboard will light up.<br />
<br />
<b><i>-- UVA on defense</i></b><br />
<br />
The Pirates want to push on offense, so one thing that will limit those second chances for UVA is a likely extra emphasis on getting back - more so than usual even for Tony Bennett. Some teams - like, some we know real well - will pass on a good shot in order to look for a great one. Hampton just takes what's there and then crashes the offensive glass, hard. They have three players in the top 300 in offensive rebounding, per KenPom's figuring.<br />
<br />
For the most part, Hampton's starting guards are volume scorers. Brian Darden is a low-percentage, high-volume shooter whose efficiency numbers are saved mainly by his almost impeccable free-throw shooting. Reginald Johnson can get to the rim fairly well and gets fouled all the time, but he's a senior whose career three-point shooting is under 30%. Doesn't stop him from shooting - he's launched 173 of them this year.<br />
<br />
Hampton's biggest offensive threat - besides their propensity to try and beat you down the court - is the interior games of their biggishes, Quinton Chievous and Dionte Adams. Chievous gets some putbacks, shoots 63% from two, and mainly eschews the jumpers - though he will at times shoot a three and very, very occasionally make one. He's much more of a threat down low - but you can save a lot of points by fouling him, because he misses more free throws than he makes. Hampton's biggest guy is 6'8", 250 Jervon Pressley, who's a shot-blocker but a liability on offense.<br />
<br />
Conventional wisdom says you beat UVA by shooting threes, as aptly demonstrated by UVA's 1-3 stretch in January where the winning opponents (VT, GT, FSU) combined to make more than they missed, and UVA's only win (Miami) couldn't buy one. Hampton cannot shoot threes.<br />
<br />
<b><i>-- Outlook</i></b><br />
<br />
After the last couple years, in which both Coastal Carolina and Belmont put a scare on the Hoos and threatened to list them among the all-time tournament upsets, I ought to be highly cautious. It's hard, though, when the opposing offense is so badly geared to succeed against one of the nation's best defenses. One day, somewhere, a 16 seed will beat a 1, but there's no point ever trying to predict it.<br />
<br />
Final score: <span style="font-size: large;">UVA 82, HU 63</span>Brendanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10506945153264825303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7193007137551439191.post-8492900002519984722016-03-15T21:56:00.002-04:002016-03-15T21:56:27.234-04:00green and white elephant in the roomThe #1 thing that makes sports interesting is the suspense. That's kind of what makes anything interesting, really, but sports are better than movies or books at producing it. Suspense, not action, is what keeps us interested, otherwise hockey would be a fifty billion dollar business and baseball would've never left the semi-pro ranks.** ESPN finally realized this by no longer showing you which draft prospect was on the phone during a particular pick and everybody said <i>thank you</i>, why did you even start that in the first place? (Because as a media entity, their first instinct is to scoop rather than entertain.)<br />
<br />
So I should be all kinds of pissed off at the narcissistic attention whore who decided to leak the bracket early. But I'm not. Because, facing the prospect of a bloated two-hour selection show "featuring more analysis and interviews" (and as a totally unintentional consequence, more ads) I just decided to extend my Tivo-enabled middle finger to CBS. I taped the thing, stayed off the internets, started watching an hour late, and zipped through everything that looked unrelated to an actual bracket or a few discussion bones about my teams. It took 45 minutes. It was wonderful. CBS can lard up the show all it likes with inane blabber and money grabs, but I'm not going to look at any of it unless they put it back to an hour, tops. Just the matchups, ma'am. Don't care what some guy in a suit thinks about them. <br />
<br />
And as a bonus, the bracket leak embarrassed CBS and called attention to the fact that people don't actually want to put up with their shit.<br />
<br />
Now for the bracket itself. It sucks. Mainly because of Chicago. And who UVA will play in Chicago, if they earn their way there. Chicago attracts Purdue and MSU grads like you wouldn't believe. The committee handed the #1 seed two road games blocking the way to the Final Four. It's no wonder the whole world is picking MSU to get there instead. Well, that and they've beaten us the last two years and Tom Izzo is postseason gold. The pundits love this, though - it's the really easy way out from picking all #1 seeds to make the FF.<br />
<br />
Of course, UVA-MSU requires each team to win three games - but MSU is a near-lock to hold up its end of the bargain. Conventional wisdom is that Seton Hall has the best chance to knock them off before then, but Seton Hall has to get past Gonzaga and most likely 3-seed Utah - though Utah isn't much of a 3-seed. And besides the fact that MSU won the last two games, now they come into the tournament as the top three-point shooting team in the country.<br />
<br />
It sets up perfectly for them, really - Chicago, a fairly easy path to at least the E8, and the lifeblood of every Sparty in existence: DIZREZPEKT. Putting UVA #1 over them is actually a fairly easy decision for two reasons: the ACC is by every metric a tougher conference than the B1G, and MSU's strength of schedule is middling while UVA's is elite. The main argument against it is "well UVA isn't a conference champion," which given that both teams were 13-5 in the regular season and made the conference championship game, basically boils down to "we beat the #4 team in the conference but you lost to #1." It would've been maybe a good idea for them not to put four sub-300 teams in KenPom's rankings on their OOC. But despite the logic, you'll never get a Sparty to believe their 2 seed is anything but ACC bias (even though their AD is like the #2 guy on the committee) and disrespect on a galactic scale, which is exactly how they like it.<br />
<br />
All we can do is hope UVA gets to that E8 game in Chicago and then brings the single best game they've ever played in the Tony Bennett era.<br />
<br />
**I'm not trashing baseball. I love baseball. It's like 250 little mini-dramas - at least one every pitch - rolled into one beautiful sunny afternoon.Brendanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10506945153264825303noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7193007137551439191.post-46062287187080826082016-03-09T20:54:00.000-05:002016-03-09T20:54:29.638-05:00a look aroundWe have a slight pause between the regular season and postseason, so it's time to take stock of how things are going in UVA's major sports.<br />
<br />
Basketball, obviously, is pretty much the way it's been since Joe Harris knocked on Tony Bennett's front door a couple years ago. The team could literally take a collective dump at center court on Thursday and then stagger off the court smashed on Wild Turkey, and they'd still be a three seed at the barest of minimums. Since theydo actually plan on trying to win a basketball game (against either Clemson or Georgia Tech), the only drama left when it comes to tournament seeding is: 1 or 2?<br />
<br />
Right now they're Joe Lunardi's third #1. (And in a bracket that sets them up on a potential crash course with Buddy Hield, which would be excellent theater.) That said, Michigan State and Xavier are strong candidates to take that 1 seed with strong tourney runs - and let's face it, MSU has to be considered the massive favorite in the B1G tourney just because of Izzo and their evil vampire nature. (Come to think of it, I would consider them the massive favorite in the NCAA, too, without a powerhouse team in the bracket to apply the stake to the heart.) UVA would be at risk of dropping to a 2 seed if they didn't make it to the ACC championship game on Saturday - but would be close to a lock for a 1 if they did.<br />
<br />
Attention must be paid to Malcolm Brogdon, opening up a new door in ACC history with the never-before-seen feat of winning ACC POY and DPOY in the same year. The two awards are clearly linked to each other, though, because the conference's two leading scorers are Tobacco Roadies. In other words, Brogdon isn't POY without being DPOY. The interesting thing is that the POY vote wasn't all that close, and his defensive stats don't really stand out. He's not a machine for either blocks or steals, which is usually how you win DPOY. You have to actually pay attention to UVA games to know Brogdon's value on defense - which is to say, UVA has become must-see TV for ACC journalists. Quite likely, they noticed how Brandon Ingram stopped lighting up the scoreboard when Brogdon was assigned to him.<br />
<br />
The ACC tournament sets up well for UVA. The other side of the bracket has the conference's top three offenses (UNC, Duke, Notre Dame); the only top team in the conference that UVA didn't beat (Duke) didn't earn a double bye and needs to take their thin lineup through a gauntlet. That said, it's a shame Louisville isn't involved - it'd be tougher to get through, but man, six teams like the ACC has at the top, plus some danger mice like Clemson and VT, would make for an ACC tourney for the ages. Or really, just the way things should be every year.<br />
<br />
Speaking of Louisville, though - are we liking this new tradition of going out on Senior Day and bombing some highly-ranked but temporarily hapless opponent back to the Stone Age with Dick Vitale in attendance?** And capping it with a three-pointer from a senior walk-on causing the roof to blow off the place? Senior Days don't get better than that. And I've been sticking up for Mike Tobey all year - I think he gets slapped with expectations and standards that are different from everyone else's, and unfairly criticized as a result - and it was therefore doubly awesome to see him own every square inch of the interior. And since Thomas Rogers's cherry-on-top three against Syracuse two years ago is still my favorite UVA basketball moment of all time, watching the rerun starring Caid Kirven was like hearing a favorite song on the radio that the DJ never plays. I could watch that show over and over.<br />
<br />
**Don't underestimate the presence of Vitale. First of all, I don't give a shit what anyone says, I like the guy, a lot. And second, on the same day that Duke and Carolina were playing at Cameron, ESPN put UVA in the prime-time slot and sent Dickie V to Charlottesville. UVA-Louisville trumped Duke-UNC. How about that?<br />
<br />
*************************************************<br />
<br />
March 10 is approaching quickly enough that you might read this afterwards. It's significant in this context for one thing: six years ago, it was the day that Mike London picked up his first two commitments of his first full recruiting class. That would be David Dean and Clifton Richardson. Bronco Mendenhall is unlikely to beat that pace, which, of course, is fine. Mendenhall has really cranked up the offer cannon, and hardly a day goes by without a new one going out. He's already held two junior days, both of which were highly attended.<br />
<br />
I don't think that all these offers are actually, like, <i>offers</i>. Bronco's not going to be one to tell you you have an offer when really you don't, but he's got to get out front of the relevance train, and there are ways to let a guy claim an offer while making sure he knows he's got to continue to earn it. There's a feeling-out process going on. An offer that goes out might be to see if the interest is mutual, or to keep UVA in the game while Bronco continues to evaluate. Or a combination of the two.<br />
<br />
Meanwhile, the feeling-out process is both ways. There's clearly interest in what Bronco is putting together, but no prospect could ever be faulted for doing his homework. Mike London was more familiar to everyone locally. Nearly all his 2011 class was from Virginia or Maryland, and he was already a somewhat known quantity to the recruits he was talking to. Now we have guys who either were not hearing from UVA before, or had been but under a totally different regime. It's encouraging that the combined junior day attendance (between the two that've been held so far) was around 50. Should we be surprised that the process is taking a little bit of time to ramp up? Not remotely.<br />
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And finally, our beloved spring sports....are showing the rust something fierce. The baseball team is already loaded down with long-term injuries just a couple weeks into the season, and the bullpen has blown a few leads. And the lacrosse team....pfff.</div>
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It's interesting, actually, that a lot of the reaction to the loss to High Point was not "Virginia is really losing their dominance" but "The blue bloods are really losing their dominance." I think that's a little bit of a confirmation bias thing. Most people want there to be more parity in lacrosse, and many are rooting for the "blue-bloods" to lose their hegemony even if they're a fan of a blue-blood. They just don't want it to be <i>their</i> blue-blood. And parity in the game <i>is</i> slowly increasing.</div>
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But it's really coming more at the expense of the middle tier than the top. ACC teams are having a fairly tough time this year, and Hopkins has been vexing their fans for a while now, same way UVA has. But that's nothing compared to how the older middle-tier teams are looking. Teams like Georgetown, Delaware, St. John's, UMass - formerly tough wins under any circumstance, and now complete pushovers. Sure, it's not a good sign for lacrosse royalty that teams like Cornell and UVA are no longer powerhouses, but the real brunt of the power shift has been felt further down.</div>
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Which means that UVA's struggles - some bad losses and some ugly wins - are more about UVA than the tide of change. Because let's face it: If Dom Starsia is gently steered toward retirement, which he probably should be if the season continues the way it started, you're nuts if you think the job would have any trouble attracting qualified candidates.</div>
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And if you think a 9-4 baseball team is any reason for panic, you learned nothing last year.</div>
Brendanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10506945153264825303noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7193007137551439191.post-1523293798924229612016-02-27T13:05:00.002-05:002016-02-27T13:05:34.303-05:00game preview: North Carolina<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioopJaQSlGCQdAI7kPcD-Cc-vSdZ3h900oM6n2WPgsYiVWng0jN5rRJG35kaUvn3ZuUZILtXRpxPF3IeiSeGVBz5dtsRhlIteCcBJAczAY9P3U25PdbUsXdAGGancWBTXTAwy0o7G02-7n/s1600/2016+North+Carolina.bmp" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="198" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioopJaQSlGCQdAI7kPcD-Cc-vSdZ3h900oM6n2WPgsYiVWng0jN5rRJG35kaUvn3ZuUZILtXRpxPF3IeiSeGVBz5dtsRhlIteCcBJAczAY9P3U25PdbUsXdAGGancWBTXTAwy0o7G02-7n/s320/2016+North+Carolina.bmp" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<i>Date/Time</i>: Saturday, February 27; 6:30<br />
<br />
<i>TV</i>: ESPN<br />
<br />
<i>Record against the Heels</i>: 52-129<br />
<br />
<i>Last meeting</i>: UNC 71, UVA 67; 3/13/15; Greensboro, NC (ACC tournament)<br />
<br />
<i>Last game</i>: Miami 64, UVA 61 (2/22); UNC 80, NCSt. 68 (2/24)<br />
<br />
<i>KenPom</i>:<br />
<br />
<i>Tempo</i>:<br />
UVA: 61.5 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#351)</span><br />
UNC: 72.3 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#47)</span><br />
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<i>Offense</i>:<br />
UVA: 117.7 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#11)</span><br />
UNC: 119.8 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#5)</span><br />
<br />
<i>Defense</i>:<br />
UVA: 92.7 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#9)</span><br />
UNC: 95.7 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#32)</span><br />
<br />
<i>Pythag</i>:<br />
UVA: .9397 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#3)</span><br />
UNC: .9298 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#6)</span><br />
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<i>Projected lineups</i>:<br />
<br />
<i>Virginia</i>:<br />
<br />
PG: London Perrantes (11.2 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 4.4 apg)<br />
SG: Devon Hall (4.2 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 1.9 apg)<br />
SG: Malcolm Brogdon (18.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.8 apg)<br />
PF: Anthony Gill (13.6 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 0.6 apg)<br />
C: Mike Tobey (7.0 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 0.4 apg)<br />
<br />
<i>North Carolina</i>:<br />
<br />
PG: Joel Berry (11.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 3.9 apg)<br />
SG: Marcus Paige (12.3 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 3.5 apg)<br />
SF: Justin Jackson (12.4 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 3.3 apg)<br />
PF: Brice Johnson (17.0 ppg, 10.6 rpg, 1.3 apg)<br />
C: Kennedy Meeks (10.0 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 1.2 apg)<br />
<br />
I brought it to my own attention that I haven't done a single preview of an ACC game all year. So why not start with the biggest regular season game we've got?<br />
<br />
There's a lot at stake here, in terms of ACC seeding. A top four slot, of course, is the goal, in the hopes that a few of the teams 5-9 or so get taken out early. The conference is so damn wrapped up on itself, though, that it's going to be all but impossible to avoid tiebreaker entanglements. There's a fair chance that teams 3-6 are in a four-way tie at 11-5 after this weekend - in fact, that happenstance mainly hinges on UVA beating Carolina. And if that happens, then 1-2 will also be tied at 12-4. UVA has collected wins over every team in the top six except Duke and UNC; one of those can still be rectified. If they get it, they'll be close to bulletproof in any tiebreaker scenario you can concoct.<br />
<br />
If not, they'll have to scratch and claw and hope for a few things to shake out correctly. Even at 12-6, the chances of the coveted double bye would be slim. With GameDay in town and Bronco Mendenhall hosting a very big junior day, it'll be a big-time atmosphere in Charlottesville; that'll help, and a potentially shorthanded UVA team will need every bit of help it can get.<br />
<br />
<b><i>-- UVA on offense</i></b><br />
<br />
Lately I've been trying to decide the answer to a chicken-egg question: Is Malcolm Brogdon dominating games because his teammates are suddenly not much help, or are they not much help because they're getting out of the way of a completely en fuego Brogdon? One clue might be those elbow step-back jumpers he was beating Miami over the head with. Darius Thompson had the opportunity to try the same thing on more than one occasion and passed on it. Then Brogdon would go out and do it again. It was almost as if he was trying to convince Thompson it was possible.<br />
<br />
Anthony Gill's one-handers haven't been falling lately, which isn't helping. I've always thought those are really tough shots - you have to be a smashmouth post presence and then immediately switch to a soft touch. I'm hoping to see Kennedy Meeks guarding him Saturday, because Meeks isn't quick enough to regularly stop Gill. I don't think Roy Williams has checked out <i>that</i> much, though. The much more likely scenario is to see Brice Johnson on Gill and Meeks on Tobey; Meeks's bulk will give Tobey trouble, and Johnson has two inches on Gill. Both would be forced further from the basket than they'd like to be. They can hit the jumper (I'm not sure Tobey takes jumpers, though - he's more or less decided to resurrect the set shot) but obviously that's too low-percentage to rely on.<br />
<br />
I'm also sure we'll see Justin Jackson on Brogdon, which is interesting. Jackson has three inches on Brogdon, and step-back mid-range jumpers would be hard to pull off. Brogdon's much beefier and stronger, though. I'm always wishing Brogdon would go harder at his defenders and just knock them around a bit - probably no more so than in this game.<br />
<br />
Thing is, though, UNC should be better on defense than it is. They're not <i>bad</i>, but they're not really as good as they should be given their frontcourth depth and overall athleticism. Johnson is a helluva rebounder on defense, but nobody else really is. Jackson in particular is pretty much indifferent to the glass. The Hoos should have plenty of second chances on offense, especially if they shoot enough threes. Shooting threes is always a good way to increase your offensive rebounds anyway, but UNC's guards basically only take whatever comes to them.<br />
<br />
Essentially, though, this will have to be more than the Malcolm Brogdon Show. I'm very happy to see him take over like this, because I've been asking for it. But UVA won't win too many games, and zero against Carolina, if he's the only one scoring in double digits.<br />
<br />
<b><i>-- UVA on defense</i></b><br />
<br />
This Carolina team is no different than any Carolina team under Roy Williams. Simple formula: Recruit a bunch of horses and let them run. There isn't a lot of definition to a player's role. Wing Justin Jackson handles the ball so much that KenPom's normally reliable algorithm pegs him as the point guard.<br />
<br />
The offense is predicated on driving at the rim. The Heels want to try and finish there, which they do well, or pull up for a jumper. When they shoot threes, which isn't often because they don't have a sharpshooter, it's almost always a drive and kick. Practically every single one of their made threes is assisted. But they're one of the most skewed teams in the country toward two-pointers - only ODU and Navy are more so. They're simply more athletic than just about everyone they play, so they use it.<br />
<br />
This is where Isaiah Wilkins and Evan Nolte would come in handy. Wilkins provides the athleticism needed to keep up on the interior. Nolte is a plodder, but he makes up for it with almost picture-perfect positioning and excellent rotating.<br />
<br />
Still, the pack-line is designed to stop precisely this kind of matchup. ESPN put out a laughable preview of the game online, with keys to the game like "play good defense." One of them was on the money, though: UNC needs to hit the threes they get from kicking the ball back out. If the pack-line is on point, there'll be a lot of opportunities like that. Guys like Joel Berry and Marcus Paige are OK, but far from automatic.<br />
<br />
An all-in rebounding effort is crucial, too. Yes, that's barely a step above "score more points," but Carolina has their bigs crash the offensive boards hard and depends on the athleticism of their backcourt (which doesn't crash) to stop transition chances. When one of the guards drives the lane, the bigs follow and try to clean up putbacks.<br />
<br />
This is the kind of matchup that makes college ball so much fun. Given a nice oval track, the UNC race cars would love to do laps at 200 mph all day. UVA prefers offroading it. It's the race track vs. the mud pit. Everything is based on whether the Hoos can bog down the Carolina offense, or if UNC can just run past the sand traps.<br />
<br />
<b><i>-- Outlook</i></b><br />
<br />
The Hoos will need more than to make a mess of the UNC offense, though; they'll have to score some of their own, too. Hard to do against the size and quickness advantages UNC will have, but the Heels are held back by a bit of an indifference on defense and a massive indifference to rebounding. Boston College is in the bottom ten offenses in the whole country and still scored just shy of a point per possession.<br />
<br />
It helps a bit too that Roy Williams is kinda checking out, as the Duke game so amply demonstrated. His in-game coaching skills have always been, eh, a bit north of mediocre at best, but his give-a-shit levels are in rapid decline. A close game gives a major advantage to Tony and Sons.<br />
<br />
And close is what it's almost dead certain to be. Against the ACC's six-team top tier, Carolina is 1-3. That makes this a huge game for them as much as UVA - they'll still be tied for the ACC lead if they lose, but they would have zero margin for error because the tiebreakers would be hell on them. And they're 5-4 on the road, having been incapable of putting close road games away against good teams - Northern Iowa and Texas both came up big too.<br />
<br />
The tangibles, then, are close, with strengths and weaknesses for both teams, and a few more of the latter for the Hoos if they have to play without Wilkins or Nolte. The intangibles all swing to the right side. In the Dean Dome, even though that's not one of the ACC's tougher buildings, I'd have a very hard time giving UVA the edge. At home, with a crowd that started the day fired up and will have all day to get nice and lubricated.... well, a loss isn't inconceivable, but too many of the intangible percentages are on our side to predict one.<br />
<br />
Final score: <span style="font-size: large;">UVA 68, UNC 64</span>Brendanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10506945153264825303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7193007137551439191.post-31067107264153504012016-02-18T21:45:00.001-05:002016-02-18T21:45:58.583-05:00up and down and back upFor a long time it's been my biggest bone of complaint about basketball, that there's no such thing as traveling if you're driving at the rim. Want to take three, four steps, and stick the ball on your hip or cradle it in your elbow? These may have been literally the precise behaviors that James Naismith intended to leave out of his new indoor game, but in the name of Excitement it makes no difference. Take what you need. Any defender attempting to stop you from doing the single most illegal thing in all of basketball will be called for a foul, so run all you like.<br />
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(If you're diving for a loose ball, however, make sure to keep your feet up in the air, opponents' jawbones be damned, lest the prize for winning the loose ball scramble be a traveling violation.)</div>
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In this context it's not at all surprising the refs, inside Cameron Indoor Home Cookin' Stadium, allowed Grayson Allen to take three or four steps, hop up and down, throw a shoulder into his defender for good measure, and only then heave up a shot that somehow found the bottom. Forget the idea that refs swallow their whistles on the final play of a game - this is something they let go <i>all the time</i>.</div>
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There's no defense against this. Conceding the shot isn't an option for a competitor, obviously. Stand your ground and try to defend it, and they'll whistle the foul, because when bodies collide the defender is considered to be at fault 90% of the time. It's the whole reason Duke mastered the flop in the first place - doing your most spectacular Jenga tower impression is the only way to gain any sympathy from the refs. I really wish Marial Shayok had flailed his way to the floor on that play - the reaction from the Cameron crowd to an offensive foul call would've been the single most precious thing in basketball history.</div>
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Therefore don't be so surprised when every pundit who throws in a comment about the play qualifies it with "might" and "maybe." It <i>was</i> traveling, just as most drives to the rim are traveling; what they mean is it "might" have actually been egregious enough to call. Sort of like how whether or not you get pulled over for driving 79 in a 70 depends on what kind of mood the cop was in when he left the house this morning. Such is the state of basketball, when even the rare and always-called form of traveling - that is, up-and-down - is ignored.<br />
<br />
Thanks to the fact that Roy Williams just isn't even trying anymore, the ACC race is tight like drum, and UVA could realistically win the whole thing or fall out of the top four. Most of the top six has three games left against someone else in the top six. Again - this is how the ACC looks when the basketball world is right and good. And I'll say it right now, before it sounds like sour grapes: the regular season title is nice, and you can put it on a banner, but it's not the ACC championship. It's something you can point to if you don't win the tournament, but if you do come out with that tourney title, you'll just about forget whether or not you won the regular season - especially if you didn't.<br />
<br />
And right now, UVA is one of about ten teams that has as good a chance as any other to win the national title. Can't ask for more than that.</div>
Brendanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10506945153264825303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7193007137551439191.post-28915460124683375802016-02-08T23:03:00.000-05:002016-02-08T23:03:07.301-05:00road sweet roadThis was a rotten weekend to be a Panther. The Super Bowl did not go their way, the NHL's Florida Panthers lost on Saturday, and so, believe it or not, did most D-I basketball teams of that nickname.<br />
<br />
In the case of the Pittsburgh variety, it was cruelly done. Malcolm Brogdon returned to the building where two years ago he shanked the hopes and dreams of a raucous crowd with a buzzer-beating three, and this time gave them no reason to stay excited for that long. Brogdon put 21 points on the board and extended his team's winning streak to six.<br />
<br />
This is what a top-ten team is supposed to do, repeatedly. I also did say, a little while ago, that the ACC is supposed to be this minefield of obstacles, and those two statements don't seem to jibe at first glance. But you're not one of the top teams in the conference if you keep stepping on the mines. And if and when you do rise to the top, as UVA has been doing the last couple weeks, you become that top-ten team. I recall, in the days B.T. (Before Tony), even when UVA had a good team, the elite teams (mainly the Tobacco Road ones) would still come in, generate a lot of buzz around Grounds, and then generally bomb us back to the stone age.<br />
<br />
Life on the other side of those trenches is pretty good. For two successive weekends now, an opponent of perfectly good standing in the conference has welcomed UVA to their gym, packed the house and legitimately fired up the crowd, and then skulked out with welts on their backside. UVA hadn't held an ACC opponent under a point-per-possession all year, until they did so at Louisville, and now rides a three-game streak of doing so. That's twice, in case you lost count, in someone else's full and very loud gymnasium. Should they shut up three road crowds in a row, it would be the most satisfying road win of all time.<br />
<br />
Actually, this is just the right week to really get the chemistry perfected. VT visits on Tuesday and then the Hoos are in Durham on Saturday. Getting it right against Clemson is fine, but not every win is created equal. A couple months ago I prematurely declared the chemistry experiment finished, and UVA ready to open up with both guns. They were not. This time around, with the defense much more locked in, they just might be.<br />
<br />
***********************************************<br />
<br />
-- One reason I have legitimate hope for the chemistry this time around is the play of the bench in the second half. During a roughly five minute run with all of UVA's stars on the bench (Brogdon, Gill, Perrantes) UVA stretched the lead against most of Pitt's starters. I was even leery of seeing them subbed back out - sometimes you just roll with what's working - but the starters came back in nice and fresh and picked up right where the subs left off.<br />
<br />
-- I don't think I've ever seen UVA be the beneficiary of such a clearly bullshit call as the offensive goaltending the refs (with Jamie Luckie in charge, natch) slapped on Pitt. Not only was the ball four inches off the rim, it was part way below it.<br />
<br />
-- The Louisville game was even worse in the refs department. The crowd was clearly pissed, and they mostly had a right to be, except that they were getting their fair share of nonsense calls too.<br />
<br />
-- I still can't decide whether Ike Wilkins should develop his big-man game or small-man game. Is he a really big frontcourt player who can post up and guard down low, or is he a smallish stretch power forward? Where he plays on defense strongly suggests the latter - but then, look at all the jump shots he makes, or that pass to Gill for the dunk on a fast break. Evan Nolte has at times been used on both sides of that equation, and Wilkins probably will over the next couple years, too.<br />
<br />
-- I'm not very wild about the three-game football series with ODU that UVA just announced. You can put me in the camp that says we have very little to gain and a great deal to lose. Lose just one of those games and you hand ODU a great reason to keep all those Tidewater players right where they are. It's not like we should need to play a game in Norfolk to establish a recruiting presence there. That series doesn't start til Bronco's third season, though, so hopefully the team has a culture change well on the way by then. And if I still lived five minutes from the ODU campus, which I did, ten years ago, I'd be all about the idea. As I'm sure 757 Hoos are right now. It's not all bad, but I think there are better scheduling ideas out there.Brendanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10506945153264825303noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7193007137551439191.post-35963447504061267422016-01-25T22:41:00.001-05:002016-01-25T22:41:16.370-05:00it's supposed to be this wayYeah, I know, I get it: losing at basketball to VT is crap, and will always be crap regardless of any extenuating circumstance at all. Also, there were higher expectations for this season than to start it off 2-3 in the ACC with losses in what should've been the easier road games on the slate. Also also, despite the Tony = Defense label they've earned over the past few years, this team has yet to hold an ACC opponent under 1 point per possession.<br />
<br />
I could go on. Rocky start to January, is the point. I mean, we're a <i>bit</i> spoiled here. 4-3 in the ACC is not the worst thing that can happen to your basketball team. Dave Leitao won four ACC games in all of 2009. Last year UVA won as many ACC games as Leitao won in '06, '08, and '09 combined, so falling short of that standard is something you should kinda expect every so often.<br />
<br />
Still, by the standards set the past two years, it's a rocky start, and there are more than a few reasons for it. And yet I can't help but enjoy it. Why? Cause this is the ACC's rightful way of life.<br />
<br />
Dean Smith (I think) is credited with saying that every road win in the ACC is an upset. He wasn't aw-shucksing his team. He was talking about the ACC as he knew it - and how it should be. Certain teams in the ACC's history have had less trouble than others in winning on the road, of course, and Smith coached one of them. But the NFL and its "any given Sunday" mantra have had nothing on ACC basketball.<br />
<br />
At least for the longest time. The early part of this decade was rough on the conference and its reputation for being a powerhouse and an impossible gauntlet of competition. In 1998, Florida State went 6-10 in the conference, lost in the first round, and made the NCAA tournament anyway - and promptly justified the committee's faith by upsetting #5 TCU (27-5, by the way) in the first round. That's conference respect. Fast forward to 2013, when UVA can go 11-7 in the conference, beat eventual 5-seed Wisconsin on the road, and hit the bricks for the NIT. That's, just, ouch.<br />
<br />
A winning record used to be a punched ticket. A losing record could still get you in. Maryland went 7-9 in conference play in 2004 and wound up a <b><i>four seed</i></b>. Back when ships were wood and men were iron, the conference schedule was a minefield and conference tournament seeding was completely wide open.<br />
<br />
That sort of abruptly stopped in 2011; since that season, six teams with winning ACC records have been left out of the tourney. '11 BC and VT; '12 Miami; '13 UVA; '14 Clemson; '15 Miami. I don't mind saying that UVA's meteoric rise has coincided with an ACC that provided a path to do so. Simply put, some games were gimmes if you were good enough, which would've been unthinkable in the past.<br />
<br />
Now take a look at the state of the league this year. Boston College is pathetic and will stay that way all year, but they're one of only three teams under a KenPom pythag rating of 0.7. The last time that count was so small was 2010, when it was zero. And keep in mind, the league didn't expand to 15 until 2014, meaning that for three years the league had <i>fewer</i> teams than it does now, and yet <i>more</i> bad teams. In 2013, six teams (half the league!) were under 0.7, which surely didn't help UVA's cause any on Selection Sunday. And four, including 9-9 FSU (ranked just below Wright State in the national ranks), were under 0.6. Just last year, you still had seven teams (again, almost half the league) under that 0.7 mark.<br />
<br />
In an environment like that, is it any wonder UVA kept blowing fools out? Oh, sure, the occasional good team got drop-kicked into tomorrow as well, just ask Syracuse on senior night, but for the most part, UVA blew out the bad teams and played the good ones pretty close.<br />
<br />
Now, suddenly, the ACC is back to being a deathtrap on any particular night. UVA's record is frankly bizarre. Four wins against teams with a combined 18-11 conference record - including three who sit at 5-2. Three losses, against teams with a combined 7-13 conference record. All road losses and home wins. You can find examples of this all over the place, like NC State's blowout of Pitt despite the former being 1-6 and the latter being 5-2.<br />
<br />
It's tough to have top-to-bottom excellence in a league with 15 teams, but the ACC is close - only two teams you could call gimme games, and I'd better be careful about saying that too strongly because UVA plays one of them on the road Tuesday. Joey Brackets has eight ACC teams in the field and two more on the cusp. ACC basketball is good again, in all the right ways.<br />
<br />
Me, I love it. It assuredly means more losses for UVA, but the wins are a bit more meaningful. And the race will be the best it's been in a long time. I'd sure like to see the Hoos tighten up on defense and stop throwing silly skip passes that don't have a snowball's chance of reaching their target, but I'm also planning on enjoying the tightened-up competition. It's the ACC as God intended.Brendanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10506945153264825303noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7193007137551439191.post-20782841605774753332016-01-18T21:44:00.002-05:002016-01-18T21:44:21.637-05:00bronco's defenseGreetings and happy new year and happy unbirthday and all that. It's been a while since I punched anything into this box, but I needed a bit of time to work on the analysis I have today. If I'd known the basketball team was going to go to hell in a handbasket I might've saved the analysis for later.<br />
<br />
What I've been wanting to do is quantify BYU's performance on offense and defense during the Bronco Mendenhall years there and compare that to UVA's performance at the same time. National rankings are nice, but they don't really satisfy. We need to have a way to take strength of schedule out of the equation. So I got to thinking about how to do that.<br />
<br />
A simple way for defense would be to take a particular game and see if BYU held that team to fewer yards than they typically muster, and on offense, the opposite. If BYU were to hold a team to 200 passing yards, when that team averages 250, that's a good performance, right? We could take each opponents averages and then how they performed against BYU, and produce an answer both on a single-game basis and all season as well.<br />
<br />
The one problem with that is: maybe that team beat the shit out of BYU and spent the second half running the ball to bleed clock. In other words, you still need to bring number of attempts into the equation. This is why it's so maddening when announcers lazily focus on per-game numbers. You didn't "hold" them to 200 yards if they passed the ball ten times.<br />
<br />
So, to get a number that reflects the quality of a team's performance in a game, say for the run game, we take an opponent and divide (game yards / average yards) as well as (game attempts / average attempts). For the former, a number below 1 is good, and for the latter, a number above 1 is good. So we take (1 - first number) and (second number - 1) and add those two together, then multiply by 100 just for readability. The result is that any number above 0 is an indicator of a good game - you held the opponent to a worse day on the ground than they normally have. Any number below 0, and you let them have a better day than normal. This is great because it works equally well for evaluating how you did against Kansas or Alabama.<br />
<br />
I went back to 2008, which is only as far back as the eminently excellent cfbstats.com site goes. (Because I used data from that site, I excluded I-AA teams; they don't appear and anyway it's not that useful of a data point.) I wanted all of Bronco's tenure, but we can't have everything. Eight years of data points is pretty good. I also did the same for UVA. A positive score in this metric is good, but we don't really know how good because I don't have all 128 teams' worth of data. But we do have a comparison to UVA, which is a start.<br />
<br />
An example of how this works: In 2015, both BYU and UVA played UCLA. (We don't have to limit ourselves to common opponents, but it's just handy for an example.) UCLA averaged 177.6 yards on 35.3 carries in the run game, 288.3 yards on 39.2 attempts in the passing game, and 465.9 yards on 74.5 plays overall. All numbers are per game. <br />
<br />
Against BYU they ran the ball 38 times for 296 yards. About average on the carries, way too many yards - that's a terrible effort for BYU, and a score of -59.0. Against UVA, 152 yards on 34 attempts for a moderately positive score of 10.7 for UVA's defense.<br />
<br />
However, BYU held them to 106 yards on 23 attempts - both well below average - for a score of 21.9. UVA scored -27.4 in the pass game by allowing 351 yards on 37 attempts.<br />
<br />
In total, BYU allowed 402 yards. Great, it's less than their 465.9 average - but on 61 plays vs. their 74.5 average. That means a negative score of -4.4 overall. For one game, that's close enough to zero to be a pretty neutral number. UVA allowed 503 yards on 71 plays, for -12.7 overall. Unsurprisingly, not only did UCLA beat both teams, but the UVA game was 34-16 and the BYU game was close at 24-23.<br />
<br />
Got all that? Let's present the numbers. A couple notes: "Total" means the total for the season when you add everything up and treat the season as one game; "average" means each game averaged, so that each game weights the number the same. Positive and negative games should be self-evident.<br />
<br />
<h3>
Run Defense</h3>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHXbLMhSCEsGv-miwKmfBivovrr4qM_JcZ3XAnMEc3Mvm7XIIIVxWqSDT2hGwsO0nKjSpJh_YcClmltb6ClywaSMHIBv3lpowngbwSlrPHlxFPGkZlL1lkyAumkiVKdCl-7lHak4pAzvrd/s1600/defense+run.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="194" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHXbLMhSCEsGv-miwKmfBivovrr4qM_JcZ3XAnMEc3Mvm7XIIIVxWqSDT2hGwsO0nKjSpJh_YcClmltb6ClywaSMHIBv3lpowngbwSlrPHlxFPGkZlL1lkyAumkiVKdCl-7lHak4pAzvrd/s320/defense+run.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h3>
Pass defense</h3>
<div>
<br /></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIsEte50dyMI1D0kqq9dKwVX59zg2NqW3uo70X7y7psdnu2jKGW1Yz9FyJYm-r0c7tH7nOnCNhpyfUabPe7yMKIz8FvgoaM0SJ_891RFDuAAZv2SFRDEuVy3T4X8GeqFL57-a8pfzhaHdL/s1600/defense+pass.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="202" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIsEte50dyMI1D0kqq9dKwVX59zg2NqW3uo70X7y7psdnu2jKGW1Yz9FyJYm-r0c7tH7nOnCNhpyfUabPe7yMKIz8FvgoaM0SJ_891RFDuAAZv2SFRDEuVy3T4X8GeqFL57-a8pfzhaHdL/s320/defense+pass.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h3>
Total defense</h3>
<div>
<br /></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglD1h-ZCtd8uhyPfyHgxsWJLZu9TgO_MS9a5HxE6tv1Z96_MNMi-F2Uu9_Fu6OMrw7w68H_OOVqgo5NMITfDlJJwsF0QGdK0AazJhh4nCWgBsgDEXEODWppNTNepTiYJw5v071ymSsxs1V/s1600/defense+total.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="195" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglD1h-ZCtd8uhyPfyHgxsWJLZu9TgO_MS9a5HxE6tv1Z96_MNMi-F2Uu9_Fu6OMrw7w68H_OOVqgo5NMITfDlJJwsF0QGdK0AazJhh4nCWgBsgDEXEODWppNTNepTiYJw5v071ymSsxs1V/s320/defense+total.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Takeaways from this:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<i>-- UVA's defense hasn't been bad, mostly</i>. Most years, UVA has positive scores. More positive games than negative.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<i>-- But it hasn't been exceptional</i>. UVA racks up 46 positive games and 42 negative ones, in terms of total defense. The positive numbers are mostly small ones.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<i>-- There's not a lot of separation between defensive coordinators</i>. Al Groh was in charge the first two years of this analysis. Jim Reid was 2010-2012, and Jon Tenuta 2013-2015. Reid had one really awful year in 2010 and Tenuta one really good one in 2014, and other than that the two DCs are hard to distinguish. Tenuta was an upgrade over Reid, I think that's fair to conclude, but his 2015 pass defense stunk. Not as bad as Reid's 2010 run defense. We don't have a lot of reference points, but the ones we do have say 2010 was just unbelievable in its suckitude.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<i>-- Even so, BYU has been much better</i>. 2008 and 2014 are the only years where UVA had a better defense. And even then, BYU's pass defense was better than ours in 2014, because it's not like BYU had a bad defense. Consistently, they've been the better team on defense without a doubt. They rack up 63 positive games against 35 negative ones - fewer negative games than UVA despite playing 10 more games that counted in this analysis. (They went to a hell of a lot more bowl games and don't make as much of a habit of playing FCS teams.)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
-- <i>BYU tends to win its best defensive performances; UVA tends to waste them</i>. As you'll see below, the single best defensive game UVA has played in the past eight years was also notorious for some of Mike London's absolute stupidest decisions.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Ergo I think we can safely conclude what we already figured: Bronco Mendenhall is a definite upgrade. We'll see about offense later - and it should be less time now that I have the technique refined a bit.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Just for fun (and some reference points), here are the five worst and best performances by each team:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><i>Run defense (worst)</i></b>:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
BYU:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
-71.1 (2011 vs. Utah - L, 54-10)</div>
<div>
-67.4 (2011 vs. Idaho - W, 42-7)**</div>
<div>
-59.0 (2015 vs. UCLA - L, 24-23)</div>
<div>
-58.5 (2009 vs. Florida State - L, 54-28)</div>
<div>
-45.7 (2008 vs. San Diego State - W, 41-12)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
UVA:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
-71.0 (2010 vs. Eastern Michigan - W, 48-21)</div>
<div>
-68.1 (2010 vs. Duke - L, 55-48)</div>
<div>
-67.7 (2011 vs. Florida State - W, 14-13)</div>
<div>
-61.5 (2012 vs. Georgia Tech - L, 56-20)</div>
<div>
-57.6 (2015 vs. Louisville - L, 38-31)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><i>Pass defense (worst)</i></b>:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
BYU:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
-71.6 (2014 vs. Utah State - L, 35-20)</div>
<div>
-59.3 (2010 vs. Utah State - L, 31-16)</div>
<div>
-57.3 (2015 vs. Missouri - L, 20-16)</div>
<div>
-49.9 (2014 vs. Boise State - L, 55-30)</div>
<div>
-37.0 (2013 vs. Houston - W, 47-46)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
UVA:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
-58.1 (2010 vs. North Carolina - L, 44-10)</div>
<div>
-41.0 (2010 vs. Maryland - L, 42-23)</div>
<div>
-36.4 (2011 vs. Miami - W, 28-21)</div>
<div>
-29.5 (2008 vs. Connecticut - L, 45-10)</div>
<div>
-29.0 (2013 vs. Georgia Tech - L, 35-25)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><i>Total defense (worst)</i></b>:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
BYU:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
-43.4 (2011 vs. Texas - L, 17-16)</div>
<div>
-25.6 (2008 vs. Washington - W, 28-27)</div>
<div>
-25.2 (2015 vs. Missouri - L, 20-16)</div>
<div>
-24.5 (2014 vs. Boise State - L, 55-30)</div>
<div>
-23.7 (2015 vs. East Carolina - W, 45-38)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
UVA:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
-48.0 (2012 vs. Georgia Tech - L, 56-20)</div>
<div>
-42.2 (2008 vs. Connecticut - L, 45-10)</div>
<div>
-35.7 (2010 vs. North Carolina - L, 44-10)</div>
<div>
-31.4 (2013 vs. Georgia Tech - L, 35-25)</div>
<div>
-29.2 (2011 vs. Auburn - L, 43-24)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><i>Run defense (best)</i></b>:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
BYU:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
93.4 (2012 vs. Washington State - W, 30-6)</div>
<div>
59.0 (2010 vs. UNLV - W, 55-7)</div>
<div>
57.5 (2012 vs. Utah - L, 24-21)</div>
<div>
53.6 (2012 vs. New Mexico State - W, 50-14)</div>
<div>
52.1 (2013 vs. Houston - W, 47-46)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
UVA:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
94.3 (2013 vs. Pittsburgh - L, 14-3)</div>
<div>
89.5 (2014 vs. Kent State - W, 45-13)</div>
<div>
75.7 (2012 vs. Maryland - L, 27-20)</div>
<div>
67.4 (2008 vs. Clemson - L, 13-3)</div>
<div>
59.2 (2011 vs. Duke - W, 31-21)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><i>Pass defense (best)</i></b>:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
BYU:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
86.9 (2009 vs. Air Force - W, 38-21)</div>
<div>
69.5 (2008 vs. Air Force - W, 38-24)</div>
<div>
59.6 (2013 vs. Middle Tennessee - W, 37-10)</div>
<div>
58.4 (2013 vs. Utah State - W, 31-14)</div>
<div>
57.2 (2014 vs. Middle Tennessee - W, 27-7)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
UVA:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
57.2 (2012 vs. Virginia Tech - L, 17-14)</div>
<div>
50.1 (2014 vs. Louisville - W, 23-21)</div>
<div>
50.0 (2009 vs. North Carolina - W, 16-3)</div>
<div>
45.6 (2011 vs. Georgia Tech - W, 24-21)</div>
<div>
41.5 (2012 vs. NC State - W, 33-6)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><i>Total defense (best)</i></b>:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
BYU:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
52.8 (2013 vs. Middle Tennessee - W, 37-10)</div>
<div>
42.0 (2014 vs. Middle Tennessee - W, 27-7)</div>
<div>
40.4 (2011 vs. New Mexico State - W, 42-7)</div>
<div>
39.9 (2012 vs. Utah State - W, 6-3)</div>
<div>
39.5 (2010 vs. UNLV - W, 55-7)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
UVA:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
50.4 (2012 vs. Virginia Tech - L, 17-14)***</div>
<div>
48.1 (2008 vs. Clemson - L, 13-3)</div>
<div>
45.6 (2013 vs. Pittsburgh - L, 14-3)</div>
<div>
36.2 (2012 vs. NC State - W, 33-6)</div>
<div>
35.5 (2013 vs. BYU - W, 19-16)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
**Sometimes these scores ain't the best for predicting actual outcomes. UVA played Idaho that same year and, you'll recall, escaped by the skin of their teeth, 21-20. This despite having all positive numbers in this scoring metric for that game. BYU did play excellent pass defense that game, and we haven't looked at the offense yet, but the real explanation, of course, is the special teams and turnovers - you might recall that game as being a particularly nasty example.</div>
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*** This was the game where Mike London wisely chose to use his two timeouts to freeze the wheelin' dealin, weed-stealin' Cody Journell instead of to save time for his offense, which was smart because it deflected the criticism from his idiotic decision to try and drive 90 yards for the game-winning score against a howling wind instead of playing for overtime where both teams would've had the same wind conditions. I mean, it didn't work in that we lost the game, but nobody remembers Mike Rocco trying to throw a 5-yard out pattern across the field which of course got picked off because hurricane. Brilliant decision-making from start to finish. One imagines Bronco Mendenhall has more coaching acumen than to do <i>any</i> of that stuff.</div>
Brendanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10506945153264825303noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7193007137551439191.post-63093232629800090382015-12-22T21:09:00.000-05:002015-12-22T21:09:45.184-05:00terra novaIn calling the Villanova game a potential rock fight, I didn't mean throwing pebbles into the ocean, but that's what you'd guess was happening the way the Hoos and Cats rolled the scoreboard up. The main surprising thing isn't scoring 86 points. The main surprising thing is doing it in only 60 possessions, the second-slowest game all year.<div>
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<div>
When you score 86 points against Morgan State, everyone eyes glaze over and they find a more interesting game to write about. When you do it against Villanova, <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/ncaab-the-dagger/lethal-offense-has-been-virginia-s-calling-card-so-far-this-season-200946378.html" target="_blank">people notice</a> - and now Tony Bennett is an offensive mastermind. These are largely the same players that beat Rutgers 45-26, by the way.</div>
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<div>
It's all part of a program's metamorphosis into something special. Mike Krzyzewski isn't known as a great offensive or defensive coach. He's just known as a great coach. Even before the Tennessee turnaround, Tony Bennett was getting accolades for his defense, and attention of all varieties for his desire to beat shot clocks into mewling submission. That's great. It's an identity, and one I truly enjoy. I love that the arena gets its loudest for something as mundane as a shot clock violation. I embrace the pace, and I know for sure Tony won't stop recruiting and selling his defense.</div>
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Still, it's one thing to get to the top. UVA's climbed one Everest already by scrawling its name in the annals of the ACC championship. Staying there is harder. Old cliche, but so true. You have to find and eliminate your weaknesses before the competition does.</div>
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That's why that Villanova game was a thing. If the West Virginia game was proof of the season's chemistry experiment coming together, Villanova is proof the mortar has dried on the program foundations and the walls are ready to go up. Take one of the really good defensive teams in the country and ruthlessly exploit <i>their</i> weaknesses instead of letting them jump on yours - that's how to keep on winning basketball games. Not just this year, but in the long term.</div>
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************************************************</div>
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<div>
-- The flip side to the offensive volcano is that Nova scored 75 points on those 60 possessions. That's a lot for a Tony Bennett defense - but then, in the play-by-play I counted 11 points off of quick-change turnovers that the defense had nothing to do with. Without those..... well, that's <i>still</i> kind of a lot for a Tony Bennett defense, but well within acceptable parameters for a top-20 opponent. The halfcourt, set-it-up defense looked as good as ever.</div>
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-- Nervous nellies will rightly point out that UVA isn't going to shoot 8-for-12 from three very often. No, they won't, but they will if they create as many open looks as they did. This wasn't luck, it was the product of really crisp and beautiful ball rotation that resulted in probably half those attempts coming completely uncontested.</div>
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<br /></div>
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-- One of them was kinda contested, but it was my favorite of the day. Malcolm Brogdon walked upcourt, dribbled the shot clock down to five just because Nova was letting him, then took two steps at the basket, pulled up, and nailed it. That was pages one through seventeen of the Kobe playbook. Normally that kind of play why I think the NBA game is much less interesting than college, but we already know Brogdon's character and there isn't a me-me-me strand anywhere in his DNA. But I've already gone on record saying he can and must be the alpha wolf this year, and a little selfishness on his part will go a long way for his teammates when they start finding themselves unguarded. Jay Wright's a damn good coach and he was basically throwing up his hands in surrender with his postgame quotes, asking what do you do with a problem like Malcolm?</div>
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-- A particular pet peeve of mine is the contingent of Mike Tobey haters the fanbase has. They have a certain expectation of what Tobey should be, which he isn't, and fail to appreciate what he actually is. This is a problem nobody else on the team has. Tobey's lone bucket of the Villanova game, though, came from being what they wish he was. It won't shut them up, because it's all about consistency and why doesn't he tear someone's head off every possession, you see, but still.</div>
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(His first foul was the same. I don't know how everyone in the arena sees a jump ball and the refs see a foul. A <i>shooting</i> foul! That was completely bizarre.)</div>
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-- The last time more than one UVA player scored 20 points in a game was three years ago against UWGB, when Akil Mitchell and Joe Harris had 20 apiece. I bet it happens again this season.</div>
Brendanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10506945153264825303noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7193007137551439191.post-43931520770637049452015-12-17T21:48:00.001-05:002015-12-17T21:48:19.685-05:00game preview: Villanova<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGaws977Evwj8O1G2Es70oXCaEk7VLp9oW44uLZqW24qUuci9N8hJuAiCNZGH_QvWcLyumwIQhgluTTqVNf2wp2aL8j57ZnEsKBewSjUPsjfjPeGuWsKcRi5qoXu5oxUQDA4piVXngU8iP/s1600/2015+Villanova.bmp" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="198" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGaws977Evwj8O1G2Es70oXCaEk7VLp9oW44uLZqW24qUuci9N8hJuAiCNZGH_QvWcLyumwIQhgluTTqVNf2wp2aL8j57ZnEsKBewSjUPsjfjPeGuWsKcRi5qoXu5oxUQDA4piVXngU8iP/s320/2015+Villanova.bmp" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<i>Date/Time</i>: Saturday, December 19; 12:00<br />
<br />
<i>TV</i>: ESPN2<br />
<i><br /></i>
<i>Record against the Wildcats</i>: 4-2<br />
<br />
<i>Last meeting</i>: Nova 73, UVA 63; 3/20/04, Philadelphia<br />
<br />
<i>Last game</i>: UVA 70, WVU 54 (12/8); Nova 76, La Salle 47 (12/13)<br />
<br />
<i>KenPom</i>:<br />
<br />
<i>Tempo</i>:<br />
UVA: 63.5 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#348)</span><br />
Nova: 67.4 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#299)</span><br />
<br />
<i>Offense</i>:<br />
UVA: 115.9 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#7)</span><br />
Nova: 113.2 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#17)</span><br />
<br />
<i>Defense</i>:<br />
UVA: 90.4 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#5)</span><br />
Nova: 90.0 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#4)</span><br />
<br />
<i>Pythag</i>:<br />
UVA: .9455 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#1)</span><br />
Nova: .9333 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#4)</span><br />
<br />
<i>Projected lineups</i>:<br />
<br />
<i>Virginia</i>:<br />
<br />
PG: London Perrantes (10.4 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 5.1 apg)<br />
SG: Malcolm Brogdon (16.9 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 2.7 apg)<br />
SF: Darius Thompson (8.4 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.2 apg)<br />
PF: Anthony Gill (13.4 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 0.4 apg)<br />
C: Jack Salt (3.1 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 0.0 apg)<br />
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<i>Villanova</i>:<br />
<br />
PG: Ryan Arcidiacono (12.3 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 4.1 apg)<br />
SG: Jalen Brunson (10.8 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 3.4 apg)<br />
SF: Josh Hart (15.0 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 1.8 apg)<br />
PF: Kris Jenkins (10.6 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.6 apg)<br />
C: Daniel Ochefu (8.9 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 1.1 apg)<br />
<br />
I've said this about a couple different schools, like Georgetown, but I don't know why UVA and Villanova don't play each other more. The last time was over ten years ago and it was the NIT committee who arranged the matchup. The time before that was also in the NIT. The last time these two schools played each other on purpose was 1989, which seems silly. They're a four-and-a-half hour bus ride apart and right next to each other alphabetically. There's plenty of tradition on both sides. It makes sense, dammit.<br />
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The Hoos jump straight from finals break to one of the most challenging games they'll have all year. Villanova went 33-3 last season, lost three of their top players, and apparently didn't miss a beat. Every single one of their games has been a blowout - although one of them wasn't exactly in their favor. The flip side of that is that they haven't been tested, save for a trip to Hawaii to play a neutral-site game against Oklahoma, which got them killed. They've played one road game - against St. Joseph's, which isn't so much a bus ride away as it is a carpool. Nevertheless, they haven't allowed themselves to fall victim to any tripwires, as they've played a few teams that are at least capable. They'll give UVA a handful in a game with an ACC-like feel to it.<br />
<b><i><br /></i></b>
<b><i>-- UVA on offense</i></b><br />
<br />
Villanova took Kris Jenkins out of the starting lineup after the Oklahoma disaster, and replaced him with the much smaller Phil Booth, but it's a good bet Jenkins will be back against UVA. Nova would be laughably undermanned against Anthony Gill otherwise. Jenkins is a little on the short side at 6'6", but he's beefy and against a lineup with Gill and a true center, he's Villanova's only hope.<br />
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Nova is, on the whole, an excellent defensive team. Even the OU loss was more on the offense than the defense. They stay in front of their man very well and have center Daniel Ochefu to wipe out a lot of mistakes. He's a terrific shot-blocker, and lanky Mikal Bridges, playing forward off the bench, creates a lot of havoc on the defensive end too. Villanova plays smart and fouls very little, and the result of all this is that teams typically have to shoot well from three to have a chance.<br />
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The hole, of course, is that they don't have much of a frontcourt outside of Ochefu. Jenkins, really, plays a small forward's game. Bridges and Darryl Reynolds play significant rotation minutes off the bench, but Reynolds leaves a hole on offense when he's in. Nova has good backcourt size, but that doesn't help in scrambles underneath the basket, and second-chance points will be a concern for them all year - especially going up against a good offensive rebounding team on Saturday. Ochefu does really excellent work on the boards, but he plays only half the time.<br />
<br />
UVA probably won't get a lot of opportunities to drive at the rim, as the Wildcats do a good job at preventing it. But they should be able to pound the ball inside, substituting to try and force mismatches with Gill and Isaiah Wilkins. Mike Tobey probably won't light up the stat sheet, because Ochefu is a major handful - but simply by existing and occupying Ochefu, he'll force Nova to guard UVA's power forwards with someone who isn't well suited for it.<br />
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<b><i>-- UVA on defense</i></b><br />
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This could be an exciting matchup for the pack-line. Nova is a perplexing team on offense. They finish really, really damn well at the rim. Kris Jenkins and Josh Hart are both shooting 80% at the rim, and this is not on putbacks because this team, outside of Ochefu, simply doesn't do that. When they get offensive rebounds - which isn't often - they reset, rather than going back up. Not surprising for a team of mostly guards. I digress. This team does very well driving to the bucket.<br />
<br />
Fortunately for their opponents - especially, say, an opponent whose defensive system is designed to slam the door on any attempts to drive the lane - Villanova is 1) in love with the three-ball and 2) not that good at it. The reason they lost so badly to Oklahoma is they shot more threes than twos and hit on four of them - out of 32.<br />
<br />
They were much better at it last year, and shooters gotta keep shooting, so eventually they might snap out of it. Maybe on Saturday. But so far this year, only Ryan Arcidiacono has been a threat as a distance shooter. Jenkins, Bridges, and Jalen Brunson are all in the 20% range so far. They've rolled their opponents anyway because they're so damn good inside the arc (against Georgia Tech, for example, 19-of-24 for two) and other than Ochefu, mostly automatic free-throw shooters, but they settle for threes a heck of a lot. They could win a lot of games from the stripe, but they're near the bottom of D-I in free throw attempts. They have this very peculiar statistical arrangement:<br />
<br />
- #4 in the country in 2pt %<br />
- #277 in the country in 3pt %<br />
- #254 in the country in percentage of points coming from two<br />
- #36 in the country in percentage of points coming from three<br />
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That is the fingerprint of a team that shoots way too damn many threes. So pack-line 'em up. This Villanova team is designed to be stopped by it. When Nova throws it inside to Ochefu, they'll be dangerous, because dude's a hoss. When they get past the gate sentries, they'll be dangerous, because they finish so well. If they're content to settle for threes, and they have been all year, UVA will take it. I suppose Nova could be an unstoppable force if they ever actually start hitting those threes, and we can't have nice things so they'll probably choose Saturday to start. But UVA rebounds really well even against teams with actual power forwards, and it adds up to a very bad matchup for Nova's offense.<br />
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<b><i>-- Outlook</i></b><br />
<br />
This game stands a good chance of being a rock fight. UVA's tempo is certainly up thanks to the shot clock - they're five possessions faster than they were last year and the highest they've been in the Tony Bennett era. But still they're one of the slowest teams in the country. Offensive average possession length is clearly faster. Defensive possession length - hardly any change at all. Villanova is not a run and gun team either; they're nearly as deliberate and force long possessions as well. Add in that both teams play excellent defense and one team is a nightmarish matchup for the other's offense, and this game will likely struggle to hit the 70s, if not the 60s.<br />
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I said the other day that it looks to me like UVA's chemistry experiment is finally producing a reaction. West Virginia was held to 54 points in 65 possessions, and just 18 in the second half. If I'm right, UVA, playing at home and against an opponent that likes to do things that play into the hands of the pack-line, should win this one. If I'm wrong, Villanova will find defensive breakdowns and derail the good vibes from the WVU win. I might as well stop writing if I'm to call myself wrong a day after writing it.<br />
<br />
Final score: <span style="font-size: large;">UVA 63, Nova 54</span>Brendanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10506945153264825303noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7193007137551439191.post-69062055050761026752015-12-16T22:29:00.002-05:002015-12-16T22:29:44.875-05:00shots in the armIt's sort of a miniature holy grail of sportswriting to be able to call a turning point in a season right as it happens. Sportswriters give it a shot all the time. Cover a 162-game MLB season and you'll probably call eight different turning points as the season wears on. It's easy to do after the fact, but not so easy in the moment; you'd have looked like a lunatic if you'd woken up on New Year's Day 2014 and made UVA a 1-seed in your bracketology.<br />
<br />
I'm willing to give it a shot right now, though: beating West Virginia in Madison Square Garden sure as hell looks like a launchpad for the season. To be honest, so far this hoops team has looked like they've had trouble getting out of third gear. Putting a nasty ol' hurt on Lehigh doesn't do it for anyone. Two struggles in two road games (and one loss) against decent but bubbly opponents doesn't scream Final Four - it says "seven seed."<br />
<br />
MSG isn't a road venue, but it's a tournament-style venue. And West Virginia is more than a tournament-style team. They have really eye-popping efficiency numbers on both offense and defense. There are things they do better than everyone in the country. They play in what is probably the toughest top-to-bottom conference in the country (Boston College is doing the ACC no favors in this regard.) At worst, beating them by 16 in a neutral venue is going to be worth one full seed in the selection committee room.<br />
<br />
I think it did more than just move UVA from a 3 seed to a 2, though. UVA took WVU's best shot, and it was a good one. The Hoos were reeling, thanks to the Mountaineers' pressure, unable to pass the ball or rebound on defense - two of the most fundamentally simple things in basketball. Then suddenly they punched back.<br />
<br />
Tony told reporters that his halftime message wasn't elaborate: either you'll respond, or you won't. Is that trust or what? Up to you, guys. Whatever you want to do. Before halftime, it was a legitimate question to wonder if UVA's UVA-ness was taking a vacation this year. After halftime, the mojo returned from the beach and went back to work, and like most teams before them, WVU found the bucket a mile away and ten inches wide.<br />
<br />
******************************************************<br />
<br />
UVA doesn't just have a football coach, it now has a whole staff. Most of that staff is still in Provo, but Bronco Mendenhall wisely brought on (or kept) a few East Coast connections. Marques Hagans (WRs) is the lone holdover. Shaun Nua (DL) actually comes from both worlds, having worked with Bronco at BYU in the past but coming more directly from Annapolis where he was on Ken Niumatalolo's staff. And best of all, UVA snapped up Ruffin McNeill, idiotically fired from East Carolina where his 5-7 record this year was used by their AD (which is no longer Terry Holland, in case you were wondering) as an excuse to win a political power struggle.<br />
<br />
McNeill isn't likely to stay long. Two, three years is the most likely cap. Sooner or later, some AAC or CUSA team will find itself looking for a head coach. McNeill will be on short lists maybe even as soon as next year; he was absolutely a success at ECU and other southeastern schools would be stupid to keep him off their short lists. Western Kentucky isn't going to hang on to Jeff Brohm forever, FAU hasn't gained much traction, Charlotte just went 0-12....McNeill is going to look awfully good to some AD somewhere. He's 57, so the window is just beginning to close, but it's best to assume he's a short-term staffer.<br />
<br />
Nevertheless, ECU's loss is UVA's gain. McNeill is said to be one of the most top-notch people in the industry, and, y'know, just look what he did at ECU. Four bowl seasons out of six, and a ten-win season. He can do some of his most important work right this week while the rest of the staff is preparing for the Las Vegas Bowl. He and Hagans can give the BYU boys the East Coast high school grand tour. And whatever he did to beat VT twice, maybe he can transfer some of that mojo too.<br />
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Speaking of which. I sort of hate to begin comparing Mendenhall to Justin Fuente and the Blacksburg crew, but it's inevitable - hired in the same year, the competition and measuring-up is impossible to avoid. Fuente retained a lot of Frank Beamer's staff and filled out the rest with Memphis coaches. Both schools are taking a prudent approach. UVA effected a near-complete overhaul, while VT held on to successful coaches (ol' Bud, Torrian Gray) and jettisoned ineffective ones - that is, most of the offensive side of the ball (li'l Shaney in particular), keeping only Zohn Burden, who produced some pretty good WRs this year. Fuente brings a badly needed fresh start on offense for VT; Mendenhall brings an even more badly-needed discipline hand to Charlottesville and a large cadre of unified, trusted staff to reinforce the message.<br />
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From here in December, though, not even a month from the introductions, I'm willing to predict Bronco outlasts Fuente. It's largely a question of expectations. VT fans were mad because Beamer kept going to crappy bowls and almost losing to UVA. If both programs go 8-5 for the next three years, just take a guess which fanbase will be happier about that. Fuente needs to put VT in the ACC CG repeatedly or it won't be enough - and if he does produce multiple ten-plus win seasons, rumors will swirl once jobs like Arkansas or Texas A&M open up. And he'd better not lose to UVA more than once in the next four years. I think VT fans could handle a loss (as long as it's not in 2016) but if he allows Bronco to put UVA on equal footing with the Hokies in the state, it won't sit well.<br />
<br />
But forget the next couple years, just the next couple months will be interesting to watch. UVA football offseasons are fun again. I hardly paid attention to recruiting efforts this year, for example - why bother, when there's so little guarantee that a commitment in May will sign in February? As usual, finals break sucks for sports fans, but Saturday marks the end of boring times - UVA fans can watch one of the marquee basketball games of the year and then root for their coaching staff in a bowl game (which is liable to be a three-hour advertisement for UVA football) and then let the fun begin Sunday when Bronco and co. become full-time Hoos.Brendanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10506945153264825303noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7193007137551439191.post-76259972714214853072015-12-07T23:40:00.000-05:002015-12-07T23:40:43.273-05:00bronc and roll<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJDzJ3RGu9Yt75kopmXj1C70-KbrDigcvNhtDHS08WnmpA0Y-gyNUsU4GH4ZyoHjs9aSBomj_5ZvVtYgMge4ngyxnVfXKrFpZuAzSvhsY0XiqyS4CvZx1UJMEnIXriWXsW7V5NsAkT_OKn/s1600/alice.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="247" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJDzJ3RGu9Yt75kopmXj1C70-KbrDigcvNhtDHS08WnmpA0Y-gyNUsU4GH4ZyoHjs9aSBomj_5ZvVtYgMge4ngyxnVfXKrFpZuAzSvhsY0XiqyS4CvZx1UJMEnIXriWXsW7V5NsAkT_OKn/s320/alice.gif" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">UVA fans watch the Bronco Mendenhall press conference</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
It's been a little over six years and seven months since Craig Littlepage dropped a bomb by hiring someone other than Rick Barnes or Tubby Smith to coach the basketball team. That was surprising, and I reacted by going "who the <i>hell</i> is <i>that</i>?" and being incredibly put out for about 10 seconds - the amount of time it took me to look up where he was coming from. Oh. Washington State. I know two things about them. They've been in the Sweet 16 lately, and they have the basketball tradition of a potato. They're really good, it's really hard for them to be good, this might work.<br />
<br />
But an ACC team trying to find a basketball coach can pick from a large set of possibilities, including other Power 5 conferences and the NBA, so dropping a surprise is not too tough. An ACC team trying to find a football coach has a much smaller group of candidates. Football is a smaller pool of teams and the ACC doesn't rank so high on the pecking order. The media is usually pretty good at identifying the list of available coaches, and surprises are usually unpleasant. Like when South Carolina turns to Will Muschamp and says, gee, you did such a bang-up job coaching in the SEC East with more resources than any other school in the division, why not take a crack at it with the degree of difficulty cranked way up? Surprises are bad.<br />
<br />
Except, apparently, when pulled off by Craig Littlepage and whatever search firm dug this up. Littlepage saved me 10 seconds this time around - I knew exactly where Bronco Mendenhall coached. I got to skip the "who?" stage and go right to "this might work." The surprise lingered all weekend and into Monday and probably for quite a while.<br />
<br />
The pessimistic view on UVA's head-coach gig has been that it's not very attractive because losing record. I've always called that nonsense. There's too much going for it for it not to be attractive, and coaches always think they can turn it around - I sure wouldn't want one who didn't. Mendenhall just vindicated the hell out of that position and took it just one step further: UVA's record was a <i>reason</i> he came. He had a great thing going at BYU, and there wouldn't have been any point to leaving it for a light maintenance job. It's clear from everything that's come out since Friday - up to and including Monday's press conference - that he's looking forward to seeing his approach can make a difference. A really big difference.<br />
<br />
Mendenhall said all the right things at the presser about how UVA is a special place with high standards, which is what coaches always say when they're being introduced. A certain part of fanhood of losing teams involves wanting to be told that things will be all better soon, and the place for that is the introductory press conference, but that's not why Mendenhall blew that press conference away. He blew it away because he was very blunt and very uncompromising on certain things. Yes, it would have been a deal-breaker to not be able to coach BYU's bowl game. No, I'm not gonna sleep at the office. Yes, I'm going to pay attention to things other than my job, starting with my family. These are things usually used to demonstrate your all-in-by-golly commitment to your new job, and Mendenhall flat-out told everyone that's not what his commitment entailed. And it made everything else ring loud, clear, and true. Because of that, it's easy to believe that the buzzwords like accountability and standards aren't just buzzwords.<br />
<br />
Mendenhall, in short, is Mike London with a plan. It's funny - going back, the things London talked about in his press conference, he did just that. He talked about being energetic, recruiting the 757, the character he wanted his players to exhibit. The word "discipline" was not spoken once. He never talked about the systems he planned on installing, other than a passing mention of a 4-3 defense. He was asked about his offensive philosophy and gave a generic answer about scoring a lot, and then said, "I think there are several positions that are key" and then proceeded to list all the offensive positions on the field except offensive line.<br />
<br />
Eerie, then, how it turned out. Ironically, that too is reason for optimism. If London's presser turned out so prophetic, why shouldn't Mendenhall's? There was a lot of overlap. Both coaches said, more or less exactly, "you're not just getting me, you're getting my family." Both talked about academics and character and UVA being the kind of place where it matters, and that being why they wanted to be here. The difference is that London stopped there. Mendenhall laid out a plan, a system, and the results it's achieved so far.<br />
<br />
And those results are impressive. BYU has an impressive football history, which belies how tough it is to win there. You have to convince players to go to a place with behavior restrictions topped only by military academies. Many of them leave for two years and don't do anything more physically strenuous than ride a bike. And Mendenhall further limited himself by being Tony Bennett-esque in demanding his recruits fit the requirements, even believing that <i>they</i> should have to sell themselves to <i>him</i> as much as the other way around. On the one hand, right now, I could probably do a better job than Mendenhall of knowing, say, which are the pipeline schools in Hampton Roads. (Not for long, but, y'know, this minute at least.) On the other hand, UVA is supposed to be this hard place to recruit to, and Mendenhall is coming from one of the few places where it's tougher.<br />
<br />
It's the splash of the year, at just the right time. The ACC Coastal won the coaching carousel this year. The SEC hired two coordinators with no head coaching experience and one retread in all the worst senses of the word. Maryland and Rutgers did that too and those were the two better hires in the Big Ten, because Illinois hired a guy who was <i>fired</i> from Western Michigan. USC went full inbred, making it 2-for-2 in laughable hires by schools initialized USC. VT, on the other hand, made the best Conventional Hire in the country, and Miami took the best coach actually known to be available. Duke still has the guy that made Duke into a good football team. Pitt went the coordinator route last year but at least it was with the reigning Broyles winner. None of these are the guy who actually went undefeated in conference play, which would be Larry Fedora. UVA needed to find some way to keep up. Consider it done and then some. Bronco Mendenhall is both a damn good coach and the right coach. UVA needed both.Brendanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10506945153264825303noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7193007137551439191.post-29617174712277942052015-12-02T21:57:00.003-05:002015-12-02T21:57:48.146-05:00not with a bangFrank Beamer played it how Frank Beamer always plays it. One of his players <i>hit a referee</i> - short of committing an actual prosecutable crime, basically the single most felonious thing you can do on a football field - and that player was suspended for a half. Because it was "unintentional." This is sort of like when your kicker breaks into someone's house to steal back his weed and that becomes "trespassing."<br />
<br />
And Mike London played it how Mike London always plays it. Two timeouts burned during his final game because his team couldn't figure out how to substitute. Three false start penalties and one dingus lined up on offense straddling the neutral zone, which latter penalty you could see coming a mile away. And a quarterback who's been so well developed and coached that his first choice in the two-minute drill (one minute, actually) is to chuck the ball deep down the middle to a quadruple-covered tight end. Great play design, incidentally.<br />
<br />
Thus did the head coaching careers of two coaches end - the only way either coach knew how. Mike London's last game could only have been more of a microcosm of his career if he had taken his last timeout to ice Joey Slye on his game-winning kick. That would've been absolutely precious. Otherwise it checks all the boxes. Red zone ineptitude, poor discipline, getting outcoached at halftime, headscratchingly bad QB decisions, and just because Steve Fairchild absolutely had to get in on the be-who-you-are action, lots of third-and-long screen passes. One of them finally worked, and I imagine that was the instant Fairchild at long last felt at peace with his not-too-illustrious tenure in Charlottesville.<br />
<br />
Any further flowery eulogizing of the Mike London era would be literary onanism. It's not an era much worth remembering. It wasn't just losing football, it was <i>bad</i> football. It was aimless, unplanned, unencumbered by identity. Everything good that can be said about it, is said about the off-field aspects of running a program. This is like house-hunting and being shown a dilapidated terrible old house with a palatial, immaculate basement. The other way round isn't desirable either, and at least you've got a nice foundation, and foundation matters, but the world remembers the face you show it.<br />
<br />
******************************************************<br />
<br />
I'm not going to exhaustively cover the coaching search, but how about a quick tiny blurb on some of the possible candidates? First impressions, call them, and almost nothing at all to do with probability of landing them.<br />
<br />
<i>Mike Bloomgren</i>: One of several under-experienced offensive coordinators on the list, and the least connected in this area of the country.<br />
<br />
<i>Jeff Brohm</i>: Impressive offense at WKU, which won their bowl game last year by coming back from a 49-14 deficit. Experience playing and teaching quarterback a plus. Would need a very strong DC hire. Risk to jump ship to Louisville should anything happen to Bobby Petrino, but one of the top fallback options.<br />
<br />
<i>Mack Brown</i>: The fanbase is harshly divided on whether this would be a good idea or not; count me in the Yes camp. A Hall of Fame coach with a national championship ring and extensive coaching tree is not a guy you turn your nose up at. His age isn't a major issue; if successful here, he could coach 6-8 years and put the program on the right track. This is an attractive enough job to draw Brown's eye as well as other high-profile names like Mark Richt and Dan Mullen - imagine what it could do with a winning record and full stadium? Brown would likely provide that.<br />
<br />
<i>Troy Calhoun</i>: In the past he's had the reputation of being tough to pry out of the AFA. His record at a very tough place to win is impressive, as is the accountability he demands - a very welcome departure from London for sure. And he's got a very good mind for offense. On the down side, there are very real reasons to be wary of Ken Niumatalolo, and Calhoun has had a tough time beating him. Calhoun's offense, while more multi-dimensional than Navy's, only relies slightly less exclusively on the run.<br />
<br />
<i>Al Golden</i>: Similar to London in that his Miami teams lacked identity. Far more talented of a coach, obviously. High-floor, low-ceiling hire.<br />
<br />
<i>Pep Hamilton</i>: Star fell a bit after being fired as Colts OC, but was a hot wish-list name for a lot of vacancies for a while. Seems to prefer the NFL, however, and has never been a head coach.<br />
<br />
<i>Dan Mullen</i>: Was winning at Mississippi State before Dak Prescott, so concerns that he's a one-trick pony are unfounded. Mullen was the favorite choice of the knowledgeable wing of the Michigan fanbase before it was clear Jim Harbaugh was a real thing, and a concerted effort could reel him in. The top home-run choice now that Mark Richt is more or less off the board.<br />
<br />
<i>Ken Niumatalolo</i>: Has done well at Navy, but Paul Johnson is already in the division; trying to beat the master with the student isn't a very likely proposition. Army has been trying to beat Navy at their own game for a while now and it's not working.<br />
<br />
<i>Matt Rhule</i>: Interesting career path; while at Temple, he switched from being DL coach to QB coach, then became OC a year later. He's certainly taken a difficult situation to tremendous heights this year, but I think, more than any other current HC we could look at (even Brohm), we'd be taking a risk that he's not a flash in the pan. Temple's defense, not their offense, is leading them to the top.<br />
<br />
<i>Mark Richt</i>: The very best choice for the job, tempered only by the fact that he's pretty much turned it down.<br />
<br />
<i>Lincoln Riley</i>: Has exactly one year of experience at a Power 5 school; Oklahoma's offense has improved between last year and this year, but it's too soon to tell how much of that is Riley's doing. And ECU's offense was decent but far from explosive during his time there. Too thin of a resume to be anything but a colossal leap of faith.<br />
<br />
<i>Mike Sanford</i>: See Riley, Lincoln.<br />
<br />
<i>Greg Schiano</i>: Reputation as an asshole will precede him wherever he goes. A Sports Illustrated article painted the picture of a reformed coach hoping for a second chance, and he'll need a fresh start somewhere in order to lose said reputation. In Schiano you'd certainly see the discipline lacking under London; if the reform job works, Schiano has potential to be the architect of a major turnaround, but you're taking a risk that leopards do change spots.<br />
<br />
<i>Matt Wells</i>: Solid record at Utah State for two years - not so much this year. Raises questions about whether he's been riding coattails. Also has zilch connections on the East Coast.Brendanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10506945153264825303noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7193007137551439191.post-61444137093860485442015-11-30T23:20:00.000-05:002015-11-30T23:20:02.865-05:00game preview: Ohio State<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoYGqnMX_froQugMWcYf93dfq_Az-t7oxiMasirPV0Xw2FEBlMXeJcvo9HM7jt_Wo_F4cLe-bIWzpAXw-IvIl-gT1qxom1JrKaUepBSTzpgjF_KDttE0DABHiMBx8FiYbuoA2WEBb3VA3-/s1600/2015+Ohio+State.bmp" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="198" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoYGqnMX_froQugMWcYf93dfq_Az-t7oxiMasirPV0Xw2FEBlMXeJcvo9HM7jt_Wo_F4cLe-bIWzpAXw-IvIl-gT1qxom1JrKaUepBSTzpgjF_KDttE0DABHiMBx8FiYbuoA2WEBb3VA3-/s320/2015+Ohio+State.bmp" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<i>Date/Time</i>: Tuesday, December 1; 7:30<br />
<br />
<i>TV</i>: ESPN<br />
<br />
<i>Record against the Buckeyes</i>: 1-3<br />
<br />
<i>Last meeting</i>: UVA 89, OSU 73; 1/25/81, Charlottesville<br />
<br />
<i>Last game</i>: UVA 80, Leh. 54 (11/25); Mem. 81, OSU 76 (11/27)<br />
<br />
<i>KenPom</i>:<br />
<br />
<i>Tempo</i>:<br />
UVA: 64.4 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#347)</span><br />
OSU: 68.3 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#283)</span><br />
<br />
<i>Offense</i>:<br />
UVA: 115.2 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#5)</span><br />
OSU: 106.6 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#80)</span><br />
<br />
<i>Defense</i>:<br />
UVA: 92.0 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#10)</span><br />
OSU: 98.9 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#92)</span><br />
<br />
<i>Pythag</i>:<br />
UVA: .9299 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#3)</span><br />
OSU: .7030 <span style="font-size: x-small;">(#73)</span><br />
<br />
<i>Projected lineups</i>:<br />
<br /><i>Virginia</i>:<br />
<br />
PG: London Perrantes (10.0 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 5.3 apg)<br />
SG: Malcolm Brogdon (16.7 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 3.2 apg)<br />
SF: Marial Shayok (7.3 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1.8 apg)<br />
PF: Anthony Gill (12.5 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 0.3 apg)<br />
C: Jack Salt (3.5 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 0.0 apg)<br />
<br />
<i>Ohio State</i>:<br />
<br />
PG: JaQuan Lyle (11.4 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 6.2 apg)<br />
SG: Jae'Sean Tate (10.2 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 1.4 apg)<br />
SF: Keita Bates-Diop (12.4 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 1.6 apg)<br />
PF: Marc Loving (16.6 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 1.2 apg)<br />
C: Daniel Giddens (6.2 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 0.4 apg)<br />
<br />
Yes, yes, yes, I'll get to the elephant in the room. How could I not? But that can percolate a little, and there's a big basketball game tomorrow, so this post has a closer expiration date.<br />
<br />
The basketball powers that be seem to enjoy having UVA play teams I hate for non-UVA reasons, so here we go into Columbus for our portion of the ACC-B1G Challenge. Ohio State has had a very nice last decade or so in basketball, with two Final Fours and numerous Sweet Sixteen appearances, but their seven-year tournament streak is already in jeopardy, five games into the season. Losses to Texas-Arlington and Louisiana Tech do not bolster a tournament resume.<br />
<br />
Still, though UVA still shows up well in the early-season KenPom rankings, that's mostly from crushing lousy teams and some preseason carryover. UVA will have to go back on the road into a difficult environment after playing the last four games in some very friendly confines (the arena in Charleston was decidedly pro-UVA throughout the tournament.) Aaron Craft and Jared Sullinger aren't walking through that door for OSU, but they're not all of a sudden a MEAC team.<br />
<br />
<i><b>-- UVA on offense</b></i><br />
<br />
The 30-second shot clock has affected the UVA offense in one appreciable way: it's rare now to see London Perrantes walking the ball up the court like he's on a Sunday stroll to nowhere in particular. UVA now pushes the ball up past halfcourt usually within a couple seconds and <i>then</i> stalls the game to a pokey crawl. They still rank outside the top 300 in offensive possession length (the shorter, the "better".)<br />
<br />
Perrantes has so far been a bit more aggressive in looking for his shot, both at the rim and the arc - not like he considers himself the first option or anything, but he's been getting after it a bit more. That'll be much harder against OSU, because point guard JaQuan Lyle is not only 6'5", but comes in with a five-star pedigree, too. Lyle has been anything but aggressive on defense, with only two steals on the season, but he's an obstacle all the same.<br />
<br />
OSU is a team with good playable size, and it's shown so far in their interior defense; they've been difficult to score on down low and are one of the top shot-blocking teams in the country in the early going. Center Daniel Giddens has 16 blocks already - more swats than he has field goals - which is a primary reason for his entry into the starting lineup over Trevor Thompson. Thompson is no slouch himself - you'll recognize the name, he was last seen as a 210-pound beanpole trying to form some semblance of a backcourt with Joey van Zegeren in Blacksburg. He transferred to OSU and has re-emerged 40 pounds heavier and a viable rotation member, though he's actually only played about a quarter of the available minutes.<br />
<br />
UVA's offense was simply abusive against the last four cream puffs, with the result that almost everyone is shooting over .500 from two and a lot of guys are over .400 from three. During those four games, UVA scored one-and-one-third points per possession, and even in the loss to GW they scored 68 in 68 possessions. OSU is certain to slow that pace somewhat, and UVA needs to drop a few more threes in than they did against GW (the Hoos started that game 2-for-14 and found themselves in a hole partly because of it) to keep the large and shotblocky OSU defenders from clogging up the lane.<br />
<br />
<b><i>-- UVA on defense</i></b><br />
<br />
It's early, so these trends will get tamped down a bit - but OSU's offense is similar to its defense. Their size means they don't get their shots blocked much, and they shoot well inside. (The caveat to both this and their defense is that cream puffs, even ones you lose to, are generally undersized.) OSU also has a few guys who've started the season off hot from behind the arc.<br />
<br />
Marc Loving is a tough player to guard, shooting well from both two and three. The same goes for Keita Bates-Diop, who's only 5-for-18 from three so far, which is a sample size problem more than anything as he shot just fine last year and is OSU's top free-throw shooter too. Austin Grandstaff - a one-time UVA target on the recruiting circuit - comes off the bench for the specific purpose of three-point shooting and is 8-for-19.<br />
<br />
There are a couple glaring red spots, though. OSU turns the ball over too much, and these are generally unforced errors. A couple bench players - most prominently Trevor Thompson and backup SG A.J. Harris - are particular culprits. Worse yet is their free-throw shooting, which doomed them against UTA and wasn't any help in their other losses. Loving and Bates-Diop - no problem. Everyone else....whoof. Giddens and JaeSean Tate are brick factories; both are in the .300s. JaQuan Lyle has been rotten too. Those three have combined to shoot more than half of OSU's free throws.<br />
<br />
<b><i>-- Outlook</i></b><br />
<br />
OSU has good size, and their top two scorers are matchup problems who can score from a lot of different places, inside and outside the arc. And Daniel Giddens is a legitimately tough center, while JaQuan Lyle has looked so far like a pretty good facilitator of the offense.<br />
<br />
That said, OSU has yet to play against anything resembling a decent big man. They've all been either stiffs or nonexistent. The one exception is Memphis's Shaq Goodwin, who went completely off on the OSU defense with 23 points on 7-for-9 shooting and nine points from the stripe. This is a losable game if the defense is still a little too loose for Tony's liking, but OSU's flaws should hold them back enough, and the UVA offense has been clicking - even coming down off the mountain would still put them high above the trees.<br />
<br />
Final score: <span style="font-size: large;">UVA 74, OSU 68</span>Brendanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10506945153264825303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7193007137551439191.post-58484115810410473262015-11-27T02:34:00.000-05:002015-11-27T02:34:06.285-05:00game preview: Virginia Tech<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiczuorzXQjpHPteYq0pe2cAf8N5FQj1MyXsPx1Anj2Hy8KesySLR1q79MYDpqQ6IBKflN72fxA0zrGb1j0kHicBPWNTidBZXxJ_YoN8XjIlkd0FUg_Mq4wcTFELjwDTqEWG_FRK1EVKr7k/s1600/2015+VT.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="187" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiczuorzXQjpHPteYq0pe2cAf8N5FQj1MyXsPx1Anj2Hy8KesySLR1q79MYDpqQ6IBKflN72fxA0zrGb1j0kHicBPWNTidBZXxJ_YoN8XjIlkd0FUg_Mq4wcTFELjwDTqEWG_FRK1EVKr7k/s320/2015+VT.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<i>Date/Time</i>: Saturday, November 28; 12:00<br />
<br />
<i>TV</i>: ESPNUVA<br />
<br />
<i>Record against the Hokies</i>: 37-54-5<br />
<br />
<i>Last meeting</i>: VT 24, UVA 20; 11/28/14, Blacksburg<br />
<br />
<i>Last weekend</i>: UVA 42, Duke 34; UNC 30, VT 27<br />
<br />
<i>Line</i>: VT by 3.5<br />
<br />
As you might have guessed by the utter lack of football content lately, it's been hard to form any emotions or strong opinions about football these days. Impressively, the players keep plugging. There's nothing tangible at stake and hasn't been for a while, but they're getting after it. That whole losing-to-Duke thing was getting really old, so it's nice at least to have that on the resume this year.<br />
<br />
It's rivalry week though. I don't care what anyone says, this is the right week to play this game. Are the students gone? Yeah, but most of them can make a day trip anyway. I made it back from 750 miles away, so the Fairfax mafia can too. Are people busy with friends and family? Yeah, but surely a reasonably successful program can scrape up enough fans to fill a stadium. All we need to do is find a reasonably successful program.<br />
<br />
This is the right time for this game because no matter what happens in the season, you still have one last thing to look forward to. Play this game in October and then what? Hit the seven-loss mark and look forward to that epic end-of-season clash with Pittsburgh? No offense to Pitt, but I'm gonna say nah. Rivalry games are storyline games.<br />
<br />
And this one has more than enough to go around. Frank Beamer is definitely coaching his last ACC game and maybe (if things go just right) his last game ever. Mike London is almost definitely coaching his last at UVA as well. These two schools meet for a basketball game on January 4 and both may well have introduced new football coaches by then. Change is in the air. Both teams are trying to extend their coach's career - one by going bowling and one by hoping they can stave off a firing.<br />
<br />
This latter doesn't seem likely, by the way, even with a win. Just as the economics made it difficult to fire London last year, they make it even harder to keep him this year. UVA will have to swallow about a $3.5 million pill, but refusing to do would be the very definition of penny-wise and pound-foolish. Only two coaches are owed any money after this season: London and Jon Tenuta. No college football coach ever coaches the last year of his contract - the optics of doing so are prohibitive - so keeping London means extending him, and extending him means doing so for like four years. Or, I suppose, he could coach the last year of his contract, and UVA can figure out how to convince a whole staff worth of assistant coaches to coach on a one-year contract. There are those who'll say that the huge number of vacancies this year means that the competition for the right coach is bloody and fierce, and they're not wrong, but the size of the coaching carousel also means lots and lots and lots of assistant-coach vacancies. Any assistant who chooses a one-year contract working for an obvious lame duck over a longer-term contract on a new staff is too stupid to be placed in charge of mentoring young adults.<br />
<br />
For this weekend, that means I can stand on very solid ground in predicting that London's days as UVA's head coach are numbered in the single digits. I'm not going to spend my time chasing rumors about his replacement - and depending on how various teams' postseasons go, that could take a while - but the spectrum of readings about London's impending release are advanced enough to be somewhere between rumor and confirmed fact. The program and the rivalry will shortly enter a new era. Given how both have proceeded recently, it's a welcome sight.<br />
<br />
<i><b>-- UVA run offense vs. VT run defense</b></i><br />
<br />
<i>Top backs</i>:<br />
Taquan Mizzell: 153 carries, 638 yards, 4.2 ypc, 4 TDs<br />
Albert Reid: 57 carries, 257 yards, 4.5 ypc, 2 TDs<br />
<br />
<i>UVA offense</i>:<br />
134.09 yards/game, 3.84 yards/attempt<br />
101st of 128 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)<br />
<br />
<i>VT defense</i>:<br />
172.55 yards/game, 4.36 yards/attempt<br />
72nd of 128 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)<br />
<br />
So last week, ACC ref Ron Cherry called an offside penalty on Tech DE Dadi Nicolas, and Nicolas did what anyone would do in that situation: hit Cherry in the arm. And by "anyone" I really mean no one at all because hitting a referee is as big a taboo as there is in all of sports. Nicolas wasn't just randomly flailing his arms and didn't realize who was behind him; he actually walked up behind Cherry and angrily whacked him in the outstretched arm (Cherry was signaling "on the defense").<br />
<br />
Because Frank Beamer is either an idiot, or thinks we're all idiots, he claimed it was unintentional and suspended Nicolas for 30 minutes. And because the ACC is full of gutless wonders, they let the suspension stand instead of immediately stepping in and telling Beamer "nuh-uh." So VT will be missing one of their better run-stoppers for a half - but not the important half. Great precedent. Hit a referee, be suspended for basically no time at all.<br />
<br />
UVA's running game has settled into an area a notch or two above what it was to start the season. Back then it was minimally functional - now it's sort of just plain functional. It strikes fear in the heart of nobody, but at least it moves the ball. But fortunately, Tech's defense is a tiny shadow of its past self. The VT D-line has held up well. Nicolas was much more terrifying last year, but he and Ken Ekanem do a more than passable job of keeping the edges clean. VT is undersized at tackle, but it doesn't matter too much; Luther Maddy, Corey Marshall, and Woody Baron make for a pretty good rotation in the middle.<br />
<br />
The difference is at linebacker, where VT is accustomed to getting good if not great play, and they're not getting it this year. Hokie fans complain incessantly about Andrew Motuapuaka's play in the middle. Deon Clarke has done alright, but it's clear the linebacking isn't up to the usual standards.<br />
<br />
Still, VT will have the advantage in the trenches and a fresh Nicolas to start the second half, so running the ball will be difficult. VT can only be said to have truly shut down one team this year (the totally impotent Boston College offense) so there'll be yardage at the end of the day. It's not likely to move the needle much, though.<br />
<br />
<i><b>-- UVA pass offense vs. VT pass defense</b></i><br />
<br />
<i>Quarterback</i>:<br />
Matt Johns: 229/365, 62.7%; 2,639 yards, 19 TDs, 15 INTs; 7.23 ypa, 132.4 rating<br />
<br />
<i>Top receivers</i>:<br />
Taquan Mizzell: 68 rec., 671 yards, 4 TDs<br />
Canaan Severin: 51 rec., 713 yards, 7 TDs<br />
T.J. Thorpe: 20 rec., 295 yards, 1 TD<br />
<br />
<i>UVA offense</i>:<br />
244.4 yards/game, 7.2 yards/attempt<br />
68th of 128 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)<br />
<br />
<i>VT defense</i>:<br />
174.0 yards/game, 7.1 yards/attempt<br />
67th of 128 (national), 8th of 14 (ACC)<br />
<br />
The yards-per-attempt numbers that I like so much don't tell the story here. VT is missing Kendall Fuller, who's been out since September. Without him, opponents have generally avoided Brandon Facyson (who has 10 PBUs and 26 tackles) and gone after Chuck Clark instead. Clark's not the worst, but he leads the team in tackles, which is partly a function of run support and partly a function of getting thrown at. A lot.<br />
<br />
The real story, though, is still in the numbers. Tech has only allowed three opponents to complete more than 50% of their passes. Good for them. When opponents do complete passes, they average over 14.7 yards per completion. Bad for them. To put that in perspective, UNC is the fourth-best passing offense in the country and the second-best non-wacky passing offense in the country (Army and Air Force run goofball offenses where passing is used as a trick play) and they average about 14.5 yards per completion.<br />
<br />
In other words, welcome to the wild funland of inconsistent safety play, where VT trusts their free safeties so much they only ever start strong safeties. (Or rovers, in VT terminology.) Adonis Alexander is the team leader in picks and he lost his starting job a few weeks ago because he's a wide receiver adventure waiting to happen.<br />
<br />
Because of UVA's use-the-pass-game-as-the-run-game approach to offense, that 14.7 is coming down, and Matt Johns probably will complete more than 50% of his passes. Bypassing the defensive line in this way is probably smart. Facyson will probably draw Canaan Severin, so with adventureland safety play and the potential for some big gains, T.J. Thorpe could be the game's X-factor.<br />
<br />
<i><b>-- VT run offense vs. UVA run defense</b></i><br />
<br />
<i>Top backs</i>:<br />
Travon McMillian: 166 carries, 880 yards, 5.3 ypc, 5 TDs<br />
Brenden Motley: 88 carries, 224 yards, 2.5 ypc, 3 TDs<br />
<br />
<i>VT offense</i>:<br />
159.09 yards/game, 3.71 yards/attempt<br />
109th of 128 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)<br />
<br />
<i>UVA defense</i>:<br />
164.91 yards/game, 4.68 yards/attempt<br />
96th of 128 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)<br />
<br />
The numbers are a little misleading here, too. VT looks like one of the worst run offenses in the country at first glance. When they're handing off to Travon McMillian, though, they get a lot more effective all of a sudden. McMillian started the season at the end of the depth chart, but by the beginning of November he'd shunted aside both Trey Edmunds and J.C. Coleman and has become the official workhorse back. With fullback Sam Rogers getting a steady diet of change-of-pace carries, Edmunds and Coleman have all but disappeared.<br />
<br />
The stats are also skewed by Brenden Motley, a mobile-ish quarterback who doesn't actually run all that well. Motley was standing in for Michael Brewer, who returned to the lineup four games ago from a broken collarbone and who never runs anywhere if he can help it.<br />
<br />
Neither UVA's D-line nor VT's O-line has been anything like you'd call impressive this year; the thing that matters here is McMillian vs. the linebackers. McMillian has been very good. Micah Kiser's 107 tackles say he probably knows what he's doing too. If the linebackers are on point, McMillian will be bottled up, but that's something most teams have had trouble doing consistently.<br />
<br />
<i><b>-- VT pass offense vs. UVA pass defense</b></i><br />
<br />
<i>Quarterback</i>:<br />
Michael Brewer: 88/150, 58.7%; 1,122 yards, 10 TDs, 5 INTs; 7.48 ypa, 136.8 rating<br />
<br />
<i>Top receivers</i>:<br />
Isaiah Ford: 57 rec., 816 yards, 9 TDs<br />
Cam Phillips: 43 rec., 536 yards, 2 TDs<br />
Bucky Hodges: 33 rec., 458 yards, 6 TD<br />
<br />
<i>VT offense</i>:<br />
214.1 yards/game, 7.2 yards/attempt<br />
66th of 128 (national), 8th of 14 (ACC)<br />
<br />
<i>UVA defense</i>:<br />
256.4 yards/games, 8.2 yards/attempt<br />
110th of 128 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)<br />
<br />
Some teams spread the ball around, getting passes to a lot of different receivers. Then there's Virginia Tech. The backs are a small, barely significant part of the passing game. Backup tight end Ryan Malleck gets a token catch or so each game. Three guys have 72% of VT's completions.<br />
<br />
Those would be receivers Isaiah Ford and Cam Phillips, and tight end Bucky Hodges. To be sure, these are three legitimate players. Particularly Ford, the ACC's receiving yards leader. Hodges is a difficult mismatch; he's huge, standing 6'7", 241, and your prototypical tough cover as a tight end that nickel corners can barely tackle let alone reach balls thrown high in the air, and who linebackers have a tough time chasing down.<br />
<br />
At quarterback, Brewer is....fine. He doesn't light up the stadium, but he doesn't lose the game by himself, either. He lets his three main receivers do most of the work and then finds the one that's most open. If they're open, he can usually find them; if not, he can't throw them open. He won't make any plays with his feet, either; Brewer is one of the least mobile quarterbacks around. VT doesn't protect him real well, so Tenuta should be able to pressure him.<br />
<br />
<b><i>-- Favorability ratings</i></b><br />
<br />
Run offense: 4<br />
Pass offense: 5<br />
Run defense: 4<br />
Pass defense: 4<br />
<br />
Average: 4.25<br />
<br />
<b><i>-- Outlook</i></b><br />
<br />
Stat sheets and past impressions, yes, all well and good; this one's still coming down to intangibles. These teams are about evenly matched; the difference between them is basically one extra OOC challenge game. Both have solid quarterbacks, large positional weaknesses that prevent them from contending for anything, and coaches on the way out.<br />
<br />
So, cliche as it sounds, it comes down to things like turnovers, wanting it more, making a clutch play, all those things that announcers think every game is about. VT carried Beamer off the field despite the loss last week; no doubt they'll be motivated to win the last one for him. UVA, likewise. VT is pretty good at coming up with wrinkles for the UVA game that surprise the Hoos; UVA, not so much likewise.<br />
<br />
Still, UVA is at home, where it so happens they're 4-2, and 3-0 in ACC play. Tech has a slight edge on paper and a big edge on the sidelines, but....if not now, when? Mike London shrugged off one demon last week and beat David Cutcliffe. Why not another one? Let's go ahead and say the extra motivation is on the good guys' side for once.<br />
<br />Final score: <span style="font-size: large;">UVA 24, VT 21</span><br />
<br />
<b><i>-- Rest of the ACC</i></b><br />
<br />
<i>Miami @ Pittsburgh</i> - <b>Fri. 12:00</b> - Nothing at stake here anymore except trying to look good for bowl suitors.<br />
<br />
<i>Georgia Tech vs. Georgia</i> - <b>12:00</b> - 8-3 vs. 3-8 would seem like a pretty lopsided matchup, but GT did beat FSU at home.<br />
<br />
<i>Louisville @ Kentucky</i> - <b>12:00</b> - UL tries to keep one SEC team out of bowl contention.<br />
<br />
<i>Clemson @ South Carolina</i> - <b>12:00 </b>- The third-best football team in the state of South Carolina stands between Clemson and an undefeated regular season.<br />
<br />
<i>Boston College @ Syracuse</i> - <b>12:30</b> - Battle for Atlantic un-supremacy.<br />
<br />
<i>Duke @ Wake Forest</i> - <b>12:30</b> - Wake me when it's over.<br />
<br />
<i>North Carolina @ NC State</i> - <b>3:30</b> - UNC could set up an ACC CG between 8-0 teams.<br />
<br />
<i>Florida State @ Florida</i> - <b>7:30</b> - FSU isn't going to the CFP, but they can throw a wrench in the works.Brendanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10506945153264825303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7193007137551439191.post-58731429300219559782015-11-17T19:50:00.001-05:002015-11-17T19:50:28.890-05:00do not panicOK, so I think most people reading this probably take a pretty even-keeled approach to UVA sports. Either because I've trained you to do so or because you decide to read this stuff because my mindset is similar to yours. (Most assuredly it's the latter, but I like to pretend it's the former and that when I ring a bell, someone somewhere gets glassy-eyed and says "We Can't Have Nice Things," eliciting a dirty look from their spouse.)<br />
<br />
So you already know not to panic just because UVA lost to George Washington, but I'm gonna take it a step further and say, don't even fret a little. Feel free to be annoyed, of course, and to grumble that it puts a ding in the ol' tournament resume, but here's what you shouldn't do under any circumstances: listen to anyone who takes two games of evidence and declares "we don't have this" or " X can't do that" or "Y needs to Z or else" or just about anything that draws a conclusion about how this team will look in March based on two games in November. One of which was against a horrendous team missing two of its better players.<br />
<br />
For one thing, even if there's nobody on the team with a shooter's rep, the vast majority of basketball games will not start off at a 2-for-14 clip from three point range. Making three of those 12 misses would be highly mediocre and have made the game very different. Second, the number of times GW got a bucket from a ball bouncing on the rim - sometimes multiple bounces - was obscene. I can't count the number of flailing prayer-drives the GW players tried that resulted, somehow, in a bucket, and sometimes in a foul too.<br />
<br />
Yeah, there's a few things to fix. Tony won't be so phlegmatic about the result, and he'll have some ideas for his team in practice. The positioning was a little sloppy, probably a little too far from the rim. The offense took maybe a couple too many contested early jump shots. (I'd guess the acceptable number of those is zero.) It's possible, even likely, the 30-second shot clock is in the players' heads a little.<br />
<br />
Tony's kind of a good coach, though, so everyone obviously should believe he can fix things. And it's that last point that leads me to the main deal here. Just about every year, I point out that a basketball team is a chemistry experiment, one which has to be rebalanced and retried every season. You can't ever say exactly what you'll get from your players, not even your seniors and juniors. Mike Tobey has been a work in progress his whole UVA career, because that's the nature of a skilled big man. Anthony Gill has to learn to play defense without having a spring-loaded 6'9" spiderman next to him on the block. Perrantes and Brogdon have to relearn how the offense is going to work without a lion-maned maniac on the floor. Lots of other guys have to learn what their new, expanded role is. And this year there's rule changes up the gazoo, and the team has to learn what they can and can't do and how to deal with a faster-paced clock.<br />
<br />
This is a veteran team, of course - one with a very high basketball IQ and coached by a damn genius. A lot of instinct has to be relearned, but that relearning process is partly automatic. They'll get it without trying to get it. They're about to embark on a full weekend of basketball - they'll be playing Thursday, Friday, and Sunday. That's how you get into the comfort zone again. They did look a little uncomfortable and out of sorts, and I'm sure the incredibly brah-riffic crowd at GW likes to think they had something to do with that, but these players have been to ACC road games before, so, nah. I think it's much more to do with the new rules environment, and the fact that the chemistry experiment is still percolating.<br />
<br />
******************************************<br />
<br />
-- I wish I could get mad at the refereeing, but the simple truth is it's impossible to know right now whether they were following the directives from the NCAA to the letter or whether they were just being ticky-tack. There weren't a lot of replays of the fouls they called. I do know that Jim Calhoun expressed his pleasure that they were "letting the teams play" and that was the clear winner for dumb announcer statement of the night.<br />
<br />
-- I liked the look of Jack Salt. If he continues to play that way he should be a regular. He had a blocked shot and it made an audible slap-thud even in the noisy court. By the way, students, if one of you doesn't bring a huge cardboard cutout of a salt shaker this year to a game, you're wasting your whole educational experience.<br />
<br />
-- I think Malcolm Brogdon started to take seriously the idea of being the takeover guy. He forced a few drives, and it was honest-to-God working. But then he sort of stopped. I still want to see a little more selfishness at the end of tight games, especially when the refs are calling fouls for breathing.<br />
<br />
-- Mike Tobey would've been more successful on the block if he didn't start his moves with the idea of a fadeaway hook already in his head. But I love that he dropped in a three-pointer. Smoke 'em if you got 'em.<br />
<br />
-- The hair this year is something else. Gill has Jheri curls now. Darius Thompson has a skunk stripe. Mike Tobey is trying to look like a trucker instead of a huge 15-year-old, but all he's managed to do is look like a huge 15-year-old trucker.Brendanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10506945153264825303noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7193007137551439191.post-7553111953486787122015-11-13T00:00:00.000-05:002015-11-13T00:00:27.739-05:00basketball season preview, part 4: nonconference<span style="font-size: small;">No football preview this week. OK, maybe a little one: Gonna lose. Instead, on the eve of Basketball Season, which is a long, long time coming, it's time for the yearly look at UVA's OOC slate - which this year is undoubtedly the toughest in a long time.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Morgan State</span><br />
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgh5627EQOApDtOwh6FJwlY_0NzSkPBwdTo5hCIrHr5_9o2SBoV2gLzf8pSjTn9xyWkHNntD3ij2dMGc0A71q2d-yBTu1BJBqFuEycmX5FaM3AfU2jVfcSt5w26zT7we5fOc3ZWAYwJqcuy/s1600/preview+Morgan+State.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgh5627EQOApDtOwh6FJwlY_0NzSkPBwdTo5hCIrHr5_9o2SBoV2gLzf8pSjTn9xyWkHNntD3ij2dMGc0A71q2d-yBTu1BJBqFuEycmX5FaM3AfU2jVfcSt5w26zT7we5fOc3ZWAYwJqcuy/s1600/preview+Morgan+State.jpg" /></a></div>
<br />
<i>'14-'15 record</i>: 7-24 (5-11)<br />
<i>'14-'15 postseason</i>: none<br />
<i>'14-'15 KenPom</i>: .1097 (337th)<br />
<br />
<i>Conference projections (out of 13)</i>:<br />
<br />
<i>Media poll</i>: 7th<br />
<i>KenPom</i>: 8th<br />
<i>SI</i>: 7th<br />
<br />
<i>National ratings (out of 351)</i>:<br />
<br />
<i>KenPom</i>: 93.1 / 105.3 / .1964 / 311th<br />
<i>SI (Hanner)</i>: 95.2 / 108.9 / .2013 / 321st<br />
<br />
<b>Chances of winning: 100%</b><br />
<br />
As if Morgan State weren't a bad enough basketball team, they'll be without two of their top players (Cedric Blossom and Rasean Simpson) on Friday, lost to an academic penalty for the first few games of the season. Blossom was Morgan State's only legit offensive threat, other than maybe shooting specialist Andrew Hampton.<br />
<br />
No other returning player for the Bears had an O-rating higher than 91.2 last year, and that's really stretching the limits. Starting point guard Donte Pretlow is a special kind of lousy, with an astonishing O-rating of 70.9 thanks to his comically poor shooting. Nobody on this team can shoot free throws let alone contested shots, and they leaned so hard on Blossom last year that nobody else is used to the leadership role on offense. This is a foregone conclusion.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">George Washington</span><br />
Atlantic-10 Conference<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFc830En7MCykkm2m6kh0i8jtF0WqR17eSLgcLNOZ5acpsrYaRxxwRzIzUK-OE2DO0WXbNPYAVkDB6xOjDmvqxk5px9lj6PvYHfLjz7gsWPkNVNR6RbnOIysZoBk6VM4EptSH2gHq6D-sp/s1600/George+Washington.bmp" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="138" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFc830En7MCykkm2m6kh0i8jtF0WqR17eSLgcLNOZ5acpsrYaRxxwRzIzUK-OE2DO0WXbNPYAVkDB6xOjDmvqxk5px9lj6PvYHfLjz7gsWPkNVNR6RbnOIysZoBk6VM4EptSH2gHq6D-sp/s200/George+Washington.bmp" width="200" /></a></div>
<br />
<i>'14-'15 record</i>: 22-13 (10-8)<br />
<i>'14-'15 postseason</i>: NIT second round (5 seed)<br />
<i>'14-'15 KenPom</i>: .7072 (74th)<br />
<br />
<i>Conference projections (out of 14)</i>:<br />
<br />
<i>Media poll</i>: 4th<br />
<i>KenPom</i>: 4th<br />
<i>SI</i>: 6th<br />
<br />
<i>National ratings (out of 351)</i>:<br />
<br />
<i>KenPom</i>: 104.2 / 94.6 / .7512 / 57th<br />
<i>SI (Hanner)</i>: 108.2 / 98.1 / .7319 / 70th<br />
<br />
<b>Chances of winning: High</b><br />
<br />
A much more interesting test awaits, as UVA goes on the road for the second half of a home-and-home. In last year's edition, GW led at halftime before the Hoos clamped down and allowed just 16 points in the second half.<br />
<br />
GW lost the top scorer from that game; Kethan Savage has transferred to Butler. But they had only one senior last year and return a lot of dangerous three-point shooters - point guards Joe McDonald and Paul Jorgensen; stretchy mismatch forward Yuta Watanabe; instant heat Nick Griffin, whose job it is to come off the bench and hit threes. Small forward Patricio Garino isn't a great three-point shooter, but is very, very efficient inside the arc.<br />
<br />
The Colonial's weakness is inside, where only Kevin Larsen is a dangerous player. Other than him, this is a small team, as the 6'8" Watanabe is too skinny at 197 pounds to bang around inside, and freshman Collin Goss is just as much a beanpole. UVA will have to contend with an array of scorers, but should be able to use a large frontcourt advantage to good effect.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Bradley</span><br />
Missouri Valley Conference<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiw4AXVRwDadZ45WC9m0ILcf0JNNOOPhN69g-LzN18d1_D8CofTThvZDi6NPu1cDSUGwbpQUSmADjNSip4qzUZpOmf6j5g0RgrgSgDblWatwT9QURxZSfv56pjs7rEcN3HHcFoD9gnPvMyS/s1600/preview+Bradley.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiw4AXVRwDadZ45WC9m0ILcf0JNNOOPhN69g-LzN18d1_D8CofTThvZDi6NPu1cDSUGwbpQUSmADjNSip4qzUZpOmf6j5g0RgrgSgDblWatwT9QURxZSfv56pjs7rEcN3HHcFoD9gnPvMyS/s1600/preview+Bradley.jpg" /></a></div>
<br />
<i>'14-'15 record</i>: 9-24 (3-15)<br />
<i>'14-'15 postseason</i>: none<br />
<i>'14-'15 KenPom</i>: .2787 (270th)<br />
<br />
<i>Conference projections (out of 10)</i>:<br />
<br />
<i>Media poll</i>: 10th<br />
<i>SI</i>: 10th<br />
<i>KenPom</i>: 10th<br />
<br />
<i>National ratings (out of 351)</i>:<br />
<br />
<i>KenPom</i>: 92.7 / 99.7 / .3026 / 275th<br />
<i>SI (Hanner)</i>: 92.6 / 101.6 / .2787 / 292nd<br />
<br />
<b>Chances of winning: Near-lock</b><br />
<br />
Bradley fired coach Geno Ward after last season, and the result was the usual amount of turnover times ten. The Braves had one senior and a whole bunch of juniors last year, and now they have four players on the roster who aren't freshmen - one of whom is a transfer and has to sit.<br />
<br />
That leaves them with their backup shooting guard, two end-of-the-rotation forwards, and ten freshmen who've never set foot on a college court before. Yikes. This was a horrendous offensive team last year (and the holdovers were among the worst) and while a new coach and basically new team could change that..... there really isn't much hope of that kind of makeup being able to defeat a veteran Tony Bennett-coached team.<br />
<br />
This game is UVA's opener in the Charleston Classic; after a very likely ruthless dispatching of Bradley, UVA would play the winner of Seton Hall and Long Beach State. Probably Seton Hall, as Long Beach has a lot of minutes to replace from last year and Seton Hall has some dangerous players, like former UVA recruit Sterling Gibbs as well as quality forwards in Angel Delgado and Desi Rodriguez. The favorite to come out of the other end of the bracket and hopefully be UVA's opponent in the championship game is Oklahoma State. UVA is the marquee team in the tournament, though, and the heavy favorite to win it.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Lehigh</span><br />
Patriot League<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6dztMdWNS-yJW2qfOVFCF6J3VVgWW20RQBMMMS9AnYYIFYni1-9S3pcucd2UEWVTEwGnVIx22sxDcYAuLmBxNuQYkVuDJBF75m4QJiqdMFRwl2SnyhcYYa6CimQRl7ruII3mBhxbdoEUN/s1600/preview+Lehigh.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6dztMdWNS-yJW2qfOVFCF6J3VVgWW20RQBMMMS9AnYYIFYni1-9S3pcucd2UEWVTEwGnVIx22sxDcYAuLmBxNuQYkVuDJBF75m4QJiqdMFRwl2SnyhcYYa6CimQRl7ruII3mBhxbdoEUN/s1600/preview+Lehigh.jpg" /></a></div>
<br />
<i>'14-'15 record</i>: 16-14 (10-8)<br />
<i>'14-'15 postseason</i>: none<br />
<i>'14-'15 KenPom</i>: .4201 (196th)<br />
<br />
<i>Conference projections (out of 10)</i>:<br />
<br />
<i>Media poll</i>: 1st<br />
<i>KenPom</i>: 1st<br />
<i>SI</i>: 2nd<br />
<br />
<i>National ratings (out of 351)</i>:<br />
<br />
<i>KenPom</i>: 101.8 / 99.0 / .5801 / 119th<br />
<i>SI (Hanner)</i>: 100.6 / 100.0 / .5153 / 166th<br />
<br />
<b>Chances of winning: Really, really high</b><br />
<br />
If you're gonna play low-major teams, and you pretty much will have a few on your schedule, this is the way to go - pick one that's the favorite in their conference so they go out and boost your RPI once you've finished beating them. Like Lehigh. They've got the build of a giant-killer, with some solid shooters like the teensy Kahron Ross, who had an impressive debut season last year. But the offense goes first and foremost through center Tim Kempton, the reigning Patriot League POY. It's hard for low-major teams to find good, skilled centers. Still, he gives up 35 pounds to Mike Tobey.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Ohio State</span><br />
Big Ten Conference<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiy_qIGOaTFfSn7PPv1uo1DlSGiDXdDytBxcIxJQx7Oxr1Tq2IWl-EJRWTzEeuXIfQ-JLBeWl8CMNSYoEv3M65RugfSdr404fTZCJFgVB5C4pB_JDZr4NuDU5rpTJwZW5ESg6lOtLfR4Gfl/s1600/preview+OSU.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiy_qIGOaTFfSn7PPv1uo1DlSGiDXdDytBxcIxJQx7Oxr1Tq2IWl-EJRWTzEeuXIfQ-JLBeWl8CMNSYoEv3M65RugfSdr404fTZCJFgVB5C4pB_JDZr4NuDU5rpTJwZW5ESg6lOtLfR4Gfl/s1600/preview+OSU.jpg" /></a></div>
<br />
<i>'14-'15 record</i>: 24-11 (10-7)<br />
<i>'14-'15 postseason</i>: NCAA 2nd round (10 seed)<br />
<i>'14-'15 KenPom</i>: .8640 (21st)<br />
<br />
<i>Conference projections (out of 14)</i>:<br />
<br />
<i>Media poll</i>: 8th*<br />
<i>KenPom</i>: 8th<br />
<i>SI</i>: 6th<br />
<br />
<i>National ratings (out of 351)</i>:<br />
<br />
<i>KenPom</i>: 106.4 / 93.9 / .8077 / 42nd<br />
<i>SI (Hanner)</i>: 112.6 / 95.4 / .8454 / 28th<br />
<br />
<b>Chances of winning: Decent</b><br />
<br />
*The Big Ten likes to make sure nobody gets their participation ribbons all in a bunch by getting voted last, and refuses to release anything past a top 3. In past years the Columbus Dispatch has orchestrated an unofficial poll, which I couldn't find this year and so threw up my hands in failure and just used the Dispatch's own predicted order of finish.<br />
<br />
UVA's assigned opponent in the ACC-B1G Challenge is a bit of an unknown quantity. OSU lost four starters to graduation and the draft, but hopes to soften the blow with a top recruiting class. That class is led by Jaquan Lyle, trying to fill the scoring shoes of one-and-done guard D'Angelo Russell. Top holdovers include Jae'Sean Tate, who shot .631 inside the arc last year, and Marc Loving, who shot .461 outside it. Of the main contributors, however, only Loving will be an upperclassman. This is a talented but inexperienced team. Probably one that's more athletic than UVA, and the game is on the road in what's likely to be a full building. We'll be hoping age and guile beats youth and foolishness.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">William & Mary</span><br />
Colonial Athletic Association<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEju9kIknlmL_GDur-iWlhz6JH4Ybwug8zziuOukv9g2hZ-MUheNV0z2_i_1cGecF6fk6_8NEiGwoWkucNxqSfWRm5r3tqyw6Nd2aVBtmKZ0z9iLWGWlY2cEaw2p-1Vq6OFzs9DEYJZGbOY7/s1600/preview+W%2526M.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEju9kIknlmL_GDur-iWlhz6JH4Ybwug8zziuOukv9g2hZ-MUheNV0z2_i_1cGecF6fk6_8NEiGwoWkucNxqSfWRm5r3tqyw6Nd2aVBtmKZ0z9iLWGWlY2cEaw2p-1Vq6OFzs9DEYJZGbOY7/s1600/preview+W%2526M.jpg" /></a></div>
<br />
<i>'14-'15 record</i>: 20-13 (12-6)<br />
<i>'14-'15 postseason</i>: NIT 1st round (7 seed)<br />
<i>'14-'15 KenPom</i>: .5688 (130th)<br />
<br />
<i>Conference projections (out of 10)</i>:<br />
<br />
<i>Media poll</i>: 4th<br />
<i>KenPom</i>: 4th<br />
<i>SI</i>: 5th<br />
<br />
<i>National ratings (out of 351)</i>:<br />
<br />
<i>KenPom</i>: 104.3 / 101.4 / .5794 / 121st<br />
<i>SI (Hanner)</i>: 108.7 / 108.0 / .5165 / 167th<br />
<br />
<b>Chances of winning: Very good, but watch out</b><br />
<br />
Gotta have an instate team somewhere on the OOC schedule, and William & Mary draws the honor this year. This was an interesting team in the KenPom stats last year, with the 27th-best offense in the country and a defense outside the top 300. They lose point guard Marcus Thornton, 8th in the country in minutes percentage last year, but return a lot of players who stood out on the stat sheet.<br />
<br />
Thornton took a whopping 242 three-point shots last year, amounting to more than seven per game, but the Tribe return their actual best shooter in Daniel Dixon. Forwards Omar Prewitt and Terry Tarpey can find the bucket with relative ease as well, and Tarpey is also a standout defender and free-throw shooter. Sean Sheldon is also very, very tough to defend, shooting .641 for the 19th-best two-point percentage in the country. <br />
<br />
These guys will definitely be upset-minded, and it's definitely one of the more dangerous games on the schedule....but fortunately, of course, at home.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">West Virginia</span><br />
Big 12 Conference<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisTv5zC1Tf3zonYoPt4SVfrhyYrW0yt3FOxzCenHlPCGg81tVyVWE6axUEwdB4zmfCZ8rPtLLLxyX9AVjhOT8GrfO87ast6qOJY5bnh_TkdJuLBfOMpkGpMrvtc1l7Uy63SJwQ6VstNyY6/s1600/preview+WVU.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisTv5zC1Tf3zonYoPt4SVfrhyYrW0yt3FOxzCenHlPCGg81tVyVWE6axUEwdB4zmfCZ8rPtLLLxyX9AVjhOT8GrfO87ast6qOJY5bnh_TkdJuLBfOMpkGpMrvtc1l7Uy63SJwQ6VstNyY6/s1600/preview+WVU.jpg" /></a></div>
<br />
<i>'14-'15 record</i>: 25-10 (11-7)<br />
<i>'14-'15 postseason</i>: NCAA Sweet 16 (5 seed)<br />
<i>'14-'15 KenPom</i>: .8346 (26th)<br />
<br />
<i>Conference projections (out of 10)</i>:<br />
<br />
<i>Media poll</i>: 6th<br />
<i>KenPom</i>: 5th<br />
<i>SI</i>: 5th<br />
<br />
<i>National ratings (out of 351)</i>:<br />
<br />
<i>KenPom</i>: 107.5 / 93.1 / .8399 / 28th<br />
<i>SI (Hanner)</i>: 110.8 / 94.4 / .8378 / 32nd<br />
<br />
<b>Chances of winning: Respectable</b><br />
<br />
Sandwiched around finals break is probably the toughest three-game stretch any major team will play outside its own conference. West Virginia was a tournament team last year and looks headed right back there this year. They have to replace Juwan Staten - tough to do, but WVU ran pretty deep last year and didn't rely too heavily on anyone, so they're equipped to do so.<br />
<br />
The Mountaineers play a decidedly different brand of hoops that should make for a fun contrast with UVA. They're one of the more up-tempo teams in the country - but not necessarily on offense. They like to get a lot of steals. Point guard Jevon Carter is very, very dangerous in this regard. West Virginia also likes to hack, hack, hack. This might actually get worse than last year because Staten and fellow departed senior Gary Browne were two of the more restrained player. There is a stat called FTA/FGA, which simply tracks free throws divided by field goal attempts; WVU's defense was dead last in the country at 55.5% percent. In other word, opponents took well over one free throw for every two field goals they tried.<br />
<br />
But they were also #1 in steals percentage, which is attributable only partly to Carter. It's a team effort. They gamble, and it can cost them in giving up easy buckets, but their opponents also turned the ball over 28% of the time last year. UVA's methodical offense will be tested.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Villanova</span><br />
Big East Conference<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibzO7S_B55kHHGKl7jueHpUvJT-5C1ddxz7_zZw6kquwgdc5hpvjs3zrTkOwRU3NKhjLZElNDc4ql95tj9g_D0LHOYf6_afH2_wt6VXQX_2EM0A8NQ1wus8QnMtZ0fy7grKWHVzKMjAQZ1/s1600/preview+Villanova.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibzO7S_B55kHHGKl7jueHpUvJT-5C1ddxz7_zZw6kquwgdc5hpvjs3zrTkOwRU3NKhjLZElNDc4ql95tj9g_D0LHOYf6_afH2_wt6VXQX_2EM0A8NQ1wus8QnMtZ0fy7grKWHVzKMjAQZ1/s1600/preview+Villanova.jpg" /></a></div>
<br />
<i>'14-'15 record</i>: 33-3 (16-2)<br />
<i>'14-'15 postseason</i>: NCAA 2nd round (1 seed)<br />
<i>'14-'15 KenPom</i>: .9504 (6th)<br />
<br />
<i>Conference projections (out of 10)</i>:<br />
<br />
<i>Media poll</i>: 1st<br />
<i>KenPom</i>: 1st<br />
<i>SI</i>: 1st<br />
<br />
<i>National ratings (out of 351)</i>:<br />
<br />
<i>KenPom</i>: 112.3 / 90.5 / .9233 / 5th<br />
<i>SI (Hanner)</i>: 116.9 / 94.6 / .8975 / 8th<br />
<br />
<b>Chances of winning: 50/50 at best</b><br />
<br />
The Big East is anything but a chump league, and Villanova ran away with it last year. The Wildcats - before flaming out in the second round - entered the NCAA tournament as Big East champs with a 32-2 record.<br />
<br />
The bad news for them is that their frontcourt will feel the loss of JayVaughn Pinkston, as it leaves them with really only two big men in Daniel Ochefu and Kris Jenkins. These are some pretty darn good players, though. But it's Nova's incredibly deep backcourt is what gives everyone the idea they might be pretty good.<br />
<br />
Even losing Dylan Ennis to transfer, Nova probably won't miss a beat. Ryan Arcidiacono is back, as are Josh Hart and promising sophomore Phil Booth, both of whom were top-notch shooters last year. Nova also adds five-star recruit Jalen Brunson to the backcourt. This is a team with few, if any, question marks, and as difficult a test as you could ask for coming out of the final exam break.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">California</span><br />
Pacific-12 Conference<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhySDzlmQj6OnoDpaAaBX_Chp1BIHmDFpRXGpqIkkOrqVPUY41DA1Nql3qCxq_MtlPgkZLurhznC0kBQ1QXAOTIxl4_2Oh1YsIi3fcafhUEyvhsAMq7myTBw81VYWbI8YrE_Syh_6Agmct6/s1600/preview+Cal.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhySDzlmQj6OnoDpaAaBX_Chp1BIHmDFpRXGpqIkkOrqVPUY41DA1Nql3qCxq_MtlPgkZLurhznC0kBQ1QXAOTIxl4_2Oh1YsIi3fcafhUEyvhsAMq7myTBw81VYWbI8YrE_Syh_6Agmct6/s1600/preview+Cal.jpg" /></a></div>
<br />
<i>'14-'15 record</i>: 18-15 (7-11)<br />
<i>'14-'15 postseason</i>: none<br />
<i>'14-'15 KenPom</i>: .6047 (113th)<br />
<br />
<i>Conference projections (out of 12)</i>:<br />
<br />
<i>Media poll</i>: 2nd<br />
<i>KenPom</i>: 6th<br />
<i>SI</i>: 2nd<br />
<br />
<i>National ratings (out of 351)</i>:<br />
<br />
<i>KenPom</i>: 106.1 / 94.8 / .7846 / 47th<br />
<i>SI (Hanner)</i>: 113.7 / 94.3 / .8719 / 13th<br />
<br />
<b>Chances of winning: Pretty decent</b><br />
<br />
Cal is a trendy pick as a breakout team this year. It's not so much their performance last year and all the great players they return, although Jordan Mathews is a heck of a shooter and this was a tremendous defensive rebounding team last year. It's more about their recruiting class, with two five-stars in Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb, both of whom should jump immediately into the starting lineup.<br />
<br />
Thus the wild difference between KenPom and the other projections, because KenPom doesn't try to project the effect of incoming freshmen too heavily. And the media might get a little overexcited about them. Pundits are looking at Cal to be a tournament team in 2016, but they definitely have to show it - and the UVA game is their big chance to.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Oakland</span><br />
Horizon League<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDOhnpC-eDaj5Nxqu2_JLDAMu0ESNONg01CcnT4MuPd-fFl0mmmTg-GueHWkoFTxQ4MBnOv4QCsvc31FiuOcKC6VYJybSWc5FyxRkkRhbk3i9_56RnT9_z8ewlygLs3MO2Qu7owU1yStN9/s1600/preview+Oakland.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDOhnpC-eDaj5Nxqu2_JLDAMu0ESNONg01CcnT4MuPd-fFl0mmmTg-GueHWkoFTxQ4MBnOv4QCsvc31FiuOcKC6VYJybSWc5FyxRkkRhbk3i9_56RnT9_z8ewlygLs3MO2Qu7owU1yStN9/s1600/preview+Oakland.jpg" /></a></div>
<br />
<i>'14-'15 record</i>: 16-17 (11-5)<br />
<i>'14-'15 postseason</i>: CIT 1st round<br />
<i>'14-'15 KenPom</i>: .4848 (164th)<br />
<br />
<i>Conference projections (out of 10)</i>:<br />
<br />
<i>Media poll</i>: 2nd<br />
<i>KenPom</i>: 4th<br />
<i>SI</i>: 2nd<br />
<br />
<i>National ratings (out of 351)</i>:<br />
<br />
<i>KenPom</i>: 104.3 / 104.2 / .5032 / 160th<br />
<i>SI (Hanner)</i>: 111.3 / 108.4 / .5672 / 139th<br />
<br />
<b>Chances of winning: Very high</b><br />
<br />
Oakland is confidently predicted to be one of the Horizon's better teams this year, but that seems like going out on a limb a bit. Few teams relied so heavily on so few players last year. Oakland had three different players getting more than 85% of available minutes, two of which are gone. They do return point guard Kahlil Felder, which is good because they literally don't let anyone else run the point. Felder was the nation's minutes leader, playing 95.7% of available minutes. During 12 of Oakland's games he literally never got to sit the bench, and that includes one OT game and one <i>double</i> OT game. It doesn't include three other OT games where he played over 40 minutes.<br />
<br />
He's also a hell of an assist man with an ARate of 39.6%, so there's a good reason Greg Kampe doesn't turn the keys over to anyone else. Felder has a few good players to find with the ball, including SG/SF Max Hooper and promising rising sophomores Jalen Hayes and Nick Daniels. Oakland's offense is respectable. Their defense, however, stinks in all regards, and UVA shouldn't have much trouble scoring in their final reprieve between the three games of doom and the ACC schedule.Brendanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10506945153264825303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7193007137551439191.post-34872493655356081462015-11-11T21:09:00.001-05:002015-11-11T21:09:56.519-05:00basketball season preview, part 3Time to round out the players portion of the season preview. Tomorrow, we move into the very interesting nonconference schedule, and then finally, next week, the ACC itself. 48 hours, man. 48 hours.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">#32 - London Perrantes - Jr. PG</span><br />
<br />
Now entering his third year as the unquestioned starter at point guard, Perrantes's sophomore year efficiency stats are a bit interesting. Compare:<br />
<br />
Perrantes:<br />
<br />
3pt%: .316<br />
2pt%: .394<br />
FT%: .778<br />
ARate: 26.5<br />
TORate: 20.3<br />
<br />
Olivier Hanlan:<br />
<br />
3pt%: .353<br />
2pt%: .513<br />
FT%: .759<br />
ARate: 29.1<br />
TORate: 15.0<br />
<br />
Hanlan was Boston College's do-it-all star, the league's top point guard last year and a draft pick of the Utah Jazz after his junior year. There's no doubt who was the better player. But Perrantes finished with an O-rating of 105.0; Hanlan, 107.4. Very little difference.<br />
<br />
It goes to show two things: one, I don't know anything about what goes into a player's O-rating, though I'm rashly assuming that crazy things like shooting and assists and turnovers are involved. And two, whatever is in the secret sauce, it rates Perrantes's contributions to the offense pretty highly.<br />
<br />
Perrantes has a quality to his play that you can spot even if you don't know you're spotting it. That's what helped drive a narrative last year that was barely borne out on the stat sheet - that Perrantes asserted himself more, shot more, and picked up the scoring pace to help UVA's offense cope with the loss of Justin Anderson. He didn't do much of that, actually, not so's you'd notice if all you did was peruse stat sheets. But it looked like he did, and perception is reality.<br />
<br />
So far, the Cali-cool image he projects has been a perfect fit with Tony's methodical approach to offense. There's an ever-so-slight backwards lean that he sometimes projects in pictures of him making the opening pass of the play setup. Tony hasn't minded him setting an offensive pace that uses all 35 seconds of the shot clock. But he will now, because that 31st second is a doozy. With a tad bit more urgency required on the offensive end, Perrantes will have to adjust. Move a little quicker. Maybe save some time on the front end by not always walking the ball up the court like a stroll through the gardens. The adaptability of Perrantes's game will be challenged this year, and because of the way he can project on the flow of the offense, how he responds will set the tone.<br />
<br />
Oh, and it'd be cool if he could improve his shooting a little this year, too. /every critique of every point guard ever.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">#33 - Jack Salt - rFr. C</span><br />
<br />
UVa's New Zealand import will get to take the court this year after a redshirt year spent bulking up and getting used to the pace of American basketball. Salt added 15 pounds, which is bad news for opponents because every report we've ever seen says he likes cracking skulls.<br />
<br />
Also, literally every story I've read about him this year - and there are a lot because a yet-to-be-unwrapped 6'11 Kiwi is a curiosity worth finding out about - mentions that he sets brutal screens. It seems random. I don't know what to make of this. It could be bad news in disguise - if he were playing Bad Boys defense with eight nasty streaks or was a sudden scoring revelation, they'd write about that instead. But it could be secretly really good news - because part of the reason Will Sherrill became a regular player was his diligence in setting screens.<br />
<br />
The safest bet is that Mike Tobey is still a very skilled player, much more experienced, and going to take up 95% of the minutes that call for a true center. It might seem that Salt and Jarred Reuter are competing for the last of the big-man minutes, but I doubt that because Reuter could easily be on the court at the same time as Tobey; Salt never will. I think whatever meaningful minutes Salt gets will be in cases where Tobey's in foul trouble and the opponent has trotted out a true center of their own.<br />
<br />
I also think that even though he won't be seen much, there's major cult-hero potential here. If he's as powerfully physical as all the reports say, somebody is either going to get whacked on a perfectly legal screen, or have a shot ruthlessly rejected after Salt roots himself into place in the post, and people will notice. What I'm hoping for is a future where Salt and Reuter are both patrolling the middle like a couple of roughneck bastards and everyone just hates them. For this year, it'd be cool if we got a few glimpses of that.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">#51 - Darius Thompson - rSo. SG</span><br />
<br />
Here's redshirt number two from last year, another Christmas present to open on November 13. With Malcolm Brogdon in charge, the chances that Thompson breaks into the starting lineup are zilch. But like Anthony Gill before him, Thompson is a potential really big deal.<br />
<br />
Possibly the most athletic player on the team, Thompson brings a slashing, driving threat that's been a little lacking in Tony's tenure. Truth is, in his year at Tennessee he was a lousy shooter. Two or three, it didn't matter, he couldn't hit it if it was a jump shot. But he also took 71% of his shots at the rim....where he also was a lousy shooter at just .369. And all that was two years ago. If those numbers improve, and you ought to believe they will to at least some extent, Thompson has the chance to be a tremendous bench scorer and a Sixth Man of the Year candidate.<br />
<br />
Thompson will probably be asked to play the point some, where he'd give opponents a completely different look from Perrantes. Perrantes is smallish, conservative on defense, and more likely to shoot a jumper than drive. Thompson will try to use his excellent length and athleticism to jump passing lanes, and look to drive on offense. Justin Anderson was a tremendously important player because his athleticism scared opponents and forced them to give the rest of the team room to operate. Thompson can look to partly fill those shoes this year.<br />
<br />
#1 - Austin Nichols - Jr. PF<br />
#2 - Justice Bartley - Fr. SG<br />
#24 - Caid Kirven - Sr. PF<br />
#25 - Mamadi Diakite - Fr. SF<br />
#34 - Jeff Jones - Jr. SF<br />
<br />
Here's the end of the bench - the walk-ons and redshirts. UVA will have the most talented non-playing players in the country. Kirven and Jones are familiar sights at the end of blowouts and do an admirable job of keeping comical scores comical. Bartley brings a fair amount of talent; he turned down a scholarship at UNLV (that due to his late appearance on the recruiting scene would've had to wait til his sophomore year) in order to study business at UVA.<br />
<br />
And of course, the redshirts. Nichols is coming off a season where he was one of the top ten shot blockers in the country (efficiency stats) and a starter at Memphis - possibly the top prize of the transfer circuit this summer. Diakite was planning on playing a prep year, but UVA convinced him to essentially prep under Tony Bennett instead. By some accounts he's the second-best athlete on the team and UVA is redshirting him <i>just because they can</i>. They'll stay in the shadows for a year and then help cushion the blow of losing four rotation seniors after this season.Brendanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10506945153264825303noreply@blogger.com1