self-accountability

In just a couple short weeks, it'll be time for another round of football season previews. Hard to believe. As with last year, I'll go around the ACC, throw in a preview for each of our non-conference opponents (William & Mary, TCU, Southern Miss, and Indiana, in case you forgot, which you probably didn't but anyway) and wrap up with one post each for our own offense and defense. This starts either during my upcoming vacation at the end of July (during which posting will be sporadic, obviously) or afterwards, depending on whether I feel like bothering while on vacation.

To lead into this, some self-accountability is in order. Last year I made some vaguish predictions in lieu of the specific and usually wrong ones made by preseason magazines, writers, hacks, and everyone else. I thought today I'd do a little self-critiquing. One by one, here's what I said about the teams previewed last year, and how they did, and whether I'm a genius or a dope.

Boston College

What I said:

The front seven alone should make BC a bowl team; the light and frosty nonconference schedule (Notre Dame notwithstanding) should put them halfway there. Three or four wins in eight ACC games is doable, but more than that may be asking a bit much unless Jags is as good a coach or better as 11 wins say he is.

How they did:

9-5, 5-3, lost to Vanderbilt in Music City Bowl

How I did:

BC did indeed blow through the nonconference portion of their schedule; in four games, UCF was the only team to score on them - one measly touchdown. Slightly underrated their ACC prowess - BC won a tiebreaker with TFSU for a trip to the ACC CG.

Grade:

I give myself a B. They did go to the ACC CG, but five wins doesn't exactly blow the prediction away.

Clemson

What I said:

It’s all very simple: If the offensive line can gel as a unit, open up holes for Davis and Spiller, and keep Harper’s nice orange uniform clean, Clemson will go to the Orange Bowl....If not? Then Clemson will go bowling in Florida, oh yes, but to Orlando instead of Miami, to play in the Rodney Dangerfield Bowl against the Big Ten; two conferences that don’t get no respect. Rejoicing will be replaced by wailing and gnashing of teeth. And it might be Tommy’s turn to swing from a tree in effigy.

How they did:

7-6, 4-4: lost to Nebraska in Gator Bowl

How I did:

Not to be a boast, but, uh.....nailed it. Clemson's offensive line was a complete and total disaster. They had the 10th best rushing attack in the ACC, better only than the two teams that didn't go bowling, and allowed more than two sacks a game, second-worst in the conference. Clemson went to the Gator Bowl and not the C****s S****s as I predicted, but TFSU, the team that did go to Orlando, probably belonged in the Gator. And Tommy Bowden was let go mid-season.

Grade:

A, thank you very much. It's not my fault the Gator Bowl makes its selection based not on the actual third-best team in the conference, but on the one they think will bring the most fans.

Duke

What I said:

Duke cannot possibly be as bad as they were the last three seasons – period. Win two games, and they’ll match the win total over that time frame. They could very well start the season right off with those two wins – perhaps even three.... Potentially riding a three-game winning streak and a wave of newfound confidence could make them quite a dangerous opponent by the time the ‘Hoos roll into Durham for both teams’ first ACC clash. Duke has been an automatic ACC win these three years.... Nobody will mistake Duke for a bowl team this year, but that winless streak in the conference should end this year; most likely against either UVA, UNC, or NC State.

How they did:

4-8, 1-7; no bowl

How I did:

Unfortunately way more right than I wanted to be.

Grade:

A-. Duke, as I figured, didn't go to a bowl, but I really would have liked to have been wrong about when they might win their first ACC game.

Florida State

What I said:

After the scandal, pile on the other various departures (some scandal-linked) and injuries, and you have a Florida State season teetering on the brink....Florida State should be a bowl team this year, but not to a really good bowl. And if the O-line can’t hold up, watch out.

How they did:

9-4, 5-3; beat Wisconsin in C****s S****s Bowl

How I did:

The Seminoles teetered, but didn't fall. They looked as if they might after an ugly early-season loss to Wake Forest, but recovered to go 5-3 in the conference. The C****s S****s Bowl is a better one than I thought they'd end up in, and they were close to a shot at the ACC championship.

Grade:

C+. I didn't completely whiff, but points taken off for too much vagueness on the prediction and more taken for a general tone of pessimism that undersold their eventual achievements.

Georgia Tech

What I said:

Johnson will be running his offense against much more talented competition, but for the most part will also have more talented players. And he’s already had a measure of success against the ACC. Defenses will need time to adapt and probably will need more than a year. You don’t just stop the offense by shoving 9 men in the box; Johnson’s too smart for that. There will be growing pains with this offense, but more of them will be with defensive coordinators trying to figure this one out. Georgia Tech will outpace the media predictions and should end up in a pretty good bowl. It’s not yet their year to break UGA’s streak in the rivalry, but even the Gator Bowl is not out of reach for the Yellow Jackets.

How they did:

9-4, 5-3; lost to LSU in the ex-Peach Bowl

How I did:

Frankly, uh, nailed it again. At least in comparison to many of the national publications, most of which figured GT would have a hard time getting to a bowl, and most early bowl projections left them out. Paul Johnson's offense did indeed give ACC defensive coordinators conniptions; GT finished with the best total yards-per-game in the conference.

Grade:

B+. I'm taking credit for giving GT more credit than most pundits; the problem is even I wasn't enthusiastic enough. The Jackets went to an even better bowl than the Gator, and even beat Georgia.

Maryland

What I said:

The pieces are there for Friedgen to bring this team to a bowl, but the schedule is very unforgiving and it’s not hard to envision the Terps winning just one of their eight conference matchups. Worse, the large number of fifth-year seniors means Friedgen will have to scramble to replace them next year. The writing may not be on the wall, yet, but somebody’s picking up the pen.

How they did:

8-5, 4-4; beat Nevada in Humanitarian Bowl

How I did:

This was intended to be a pretty pessimistic review. One win in eight conference games? Actually, Maryland sometimes looked like the untalented bunch of hacks I described (against us and MTSU, say) and at other times, dominated. Which is weird for a team I also described as experienced - you would think "experienced" meant "consistent," which Maryland clearly was anything but.

Grade:

C-. I was not pegging Maryland for a bowl. They didn't go to a good one, but their season was successful enough to make this prediction look kinda goofy.

Miami

What I said:

The large number of Hurricanes haters may want to enjoy this season. Miami has had some down years, culminating in an actual losing season last year – their second since 1980. That’s going to change. This year, there’ll be growing pains as Canes fans watch a freshman quarterback get all excited and overthrow a few receivers, and Miami may even have to settle for their second trip to Boise in three years.

How they did:

7-6, 4-4: lost E*****d Bowl to California

How I did:

Well, they did have to watch Robert Marve overthrow a bunch of receivers in Miami, but once they figured out that Jacory Harris was the better thrower, the Canes rescued their season and as late as November, were 7-3 until a couple losses finished it off. San Francisco isn't exactly much more of a prestigious bowl destination than Boise, though.

Grade:

B+. Points again taken for vagueness, but the end result is more or less what I was getting at in the first place.

North Carolina

What I said:

This could be scary. ACC fans have gotten used to Tobacco Road being the football doormat. Duke is not ready to leave the ACC basement, but UNC is going to make waves. The Orange Bowl is not at all out of the question, and most of Carolina’s best players aren’t even seniors. Some aren’t even juniors. Butch Davis has put the ACC on notice in just one short season – look for 2008 to be the Heels’ coming-out party. UNC hasn’t gone bowling since 2004 and hasn’t left the state for a bowl game since 2001. That streak ends this year.

How they did:

8-5, 4-4; lost to West Virginia in M*****e C** C*** Bowl

How I did:

I called their bowl game, although they still didn't leave the state. But overall, I got a little overenthusiastic. They actually made me look pretty smart early on, finishing up the first half with a win over Notre Dame to go 5-1, but playmaker Brandon Tate suffered a season-ending injury in that game and they struggled in the second half.

Grade:

B-. I really thought they could contend for the ACC title; they were never really in it, though they did break out of the funk their program had been in during most of the decade. I give myself a little bit of a break for the Tate injury; with him, they might have been closer to fulfilling my effusive prediction.

North Carolina State

What I said:

The Wolfpack aren’t quite sure who will be under center when they roadtrip to South Carolina to start the season, let alone at the end of it. The wide receivers are a mostly inexperienced bunch. There isn’t much depth on the offensive line and hardly any starting experience on most of the defense. Some help could be coming with the freshman class, but that doesn’t fix the experience issues. The ‘Pack are not going bowling this season, and the November 8 clash against Duke looks like the Pillow Fight of the Year in the ACC. Though both have enough talent to avoid this fate, it’s possible the loser of that game finds themselves winless in conference play.

How they did:

6-7, 4-4; lost to Rutgers in the p*******.com Bowl

How I did:

Oops. Very oops. I had NC State pegged as one of the absolute worst in the conference and a clearcut bowl non-participant; that, obviously, was not the case. NC State started off with a horrible, ugly loss to South Carolina and continued on to a 2-6 record, but recovered very nicely at the end to squeeze into a bowl. They weren't exactly great, but this is still a big fat swing and a miss.

Grade:

D+. An A, if they'd continued like they had in the first eight games, but even those were close losses. They fixed it, and made me look a fool in the process.

Virginia Tech

What I said:

This is supposed to be Tech’s down year, but their defense and O-line are too good to let that happen. Watch for trouble if they slip up against UNC and Nebraska, but if not, don’t expect them to easily relinquish their hold on the Coastal Division.

How they did:

10-4, 5-3; beat Cincinnati in Orange Bowl

How I did:

Well, they didn't give up their hold on the Coastal, did they? No, dammit, and their defense was just as good as advertised.

Grade:

B+. I figured they'd be the favorites in the division; I didn't figure 5-3 would be enough to do it. Points added for more or less calling them as the division winners, points taken away for overrating their actual wins total, because when you peg someone as the champions, you figure they won't lose that many games. It was a weird ACC.

Wake Forest

What I said:

Clemson is the anointed this-is-their-year team in the ACC, but Wake will be feeling like that title ought to belong to them, and the October 9 game between the two teams looks right now like the deciding factor in the Atlantic Division race. Both teams will almost certainly be undefeated going in, and Wake gets to play the game at home in Winston-Salem. Regardless of whether or not they upset Clemson and make it to the Orange Bowl, Wake is well-positioned to improve on their 9-4 record of last year, and end up in a better bowl than the MCC Bowl in Charlotte.

How they did:

8-5, 4-4; beat Navy in E*******k Bowl

How I did:

Overrated them pretty heftily, bottom line. Wake had a disappointing season given the expectations; I wasn't the only one thinking they'd have a shot at the Orange Bowl. Improve on 9-4? Apparently not.

Grade: C-. Going to a bowl game in DC is a far cry from contending for the ACC championship.

I didn't make any such predictions for our season, though I'd probably end up with a lousy grade for doing so if I had, because I thought we'd at least make a damn bowl. Obviously we didn't. Here's what I had to say about our offense and our defense if you like. I was more on point about the defense, I think, but not especially so.

Two final things: I have another Examiner article up, and also, for heaven's sake go vote for Mark Reynolds, you have until 4 PM tomorrow (Thursday, that is) and he's in third place.