game preview: North Carolina

Date/Time: Saturday, October 25; 12:30

TV: ESPN3, ACC Net.

Record against the Heels: 54-60-4

Last meeting: UNC 45, UVA 14; 11/9/13, Chapel Hill

Last weekend: Duke 20, UVA 13; UNC 48, GT 43

Line: UVA by 7

Injury report:

Virginia:

OUT: C Jackson Matteo, CB Demetrious Nicholson, OG Eric Tetlow, OT Jay Whitmire
DOUBTFUL: None
QUESTIONABLE: OG Ryan Doull
PROBABLE: None

North Carolina:

OUT: RB Conner Gonet
DOUBTFUL: RB Elijah Hood
QUESTIONABLE: OT R.J. Prince
PROBABLE: OT Kiaro Holts, WR Kendrick Singleton, DT Tyler Powell

This hasn't been a real competitive rivalry lately.  UNC's margins of victory the past four years: 34, 11, 24, 31.  It put an abrupt end to the long winning streak the Hoos had over the Heels in Scott Stadium.  UNC is reeling a bit at the moment, though.  Nobody's too sure what's a bigger scandal: the fact that an office staffer artificially pumped up the grades of thousands of UNC students over 18 years, or the Carolina defense.  One is a horrible affront to everything people expect out of an elite university, and the other made Debby Crowder a household name.

-- UVA run offense vs. UNC run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 120 carries, 502 yards, 4.2 avg., 3 TDs
Khalek Shepherd: 46 carries, 212 yards, 4.6 avg., 1 TD

UVA offense:
171.7 yards/game, 4.26 yards/attempt
69th of 128 (national), 8th of 14 (ACC)

UNC defense:
218.0 yards/game, 4.81 yards/attempt
99th of 128 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)

Stop me if you've heard this story before: Bad teams able to run on supposedly ACC-level defense.  This is not quite as much so as Duke; for one thing, UNC has played teams with a pulse, and not everyone has run buck-wild, either.  On the other hand, UNC can't be said to have shut anyone down, either, not even Liberty.  Only Clemson really had trouble running the ball, but Clemson doesn't actually have a good run game.

Neither does VT - as has been on display the past couple Thursdays - but they were at least functional against UNC.  East Carolina, of course, went apeshit.  And the Carolina defense has been rather prone to allowing long rushing plays by wide receivers; Cam Phillips of VT had a 30-yarder and GT's DeAndre Smelter went for 75.  At some point UVA will probably try an end-around with Darius Jennings.  If it's run to the wide side of the field and not stupidly at the near sideline, it has a chance of going for big yards.

If Ryan Doull is able to return, it should also provide a boost.  Doull isn't amazing, but he's an improvement over Cody Wallace.  And of course, the other big If is whether or not Steve Fairchild actually has the guts to stick with the running game.  UNC's problem here is that they run a nickel defense without an especially stout front six.  The front four is pretty average, and the two starting linebackers - Jeff Schoettmer and Travis Hughes - aren't very productive.  Hughes, who you'll remember as a guy hotly pursued by UVA out of the 757, is only on pace for 65 tackles, a low number for a starting linebacker.

As with Duke, attacking the middle ought to provide more dividends than trying to tiptoe around the edges; un-enamored as I am of our ability to move a line, you'd rather not give a nickel defense time to pursue to the play.  UNC's safeties aren't as strong as Duke's - there's no Jeremy Cash running around - but this still really is one of those games where coachspeak about committing to the run should actually pay off.

-- UVA pass offense vs. UNC pass defense

Quarterbacks:
Matt Johns: 82/147, 55.8%; 1,012 yards, 8 TDs, 5 INTs; 6.88 avg.
Greyson Lambert: 63/97, 64.9%; 564 yards, 2 TDs, 4 INTs; 5.81 avg.

Top receivers:
Taquan Mizzell: 24 rec., 118 yards, 0 TDs
Miles Gooch: 23 rec., 349 yards, 1 TD
Canaan Severin: 23 rec., 266 yards, 2 TDs

UVA offense:
235.6 yards/game, 6.54 yards/attempt
90th of 128 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

UNC defense:
304.7 yards/game, 8.71 yards/attempt
121st of 128 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

Last week was a mixed-messages party.  Mike London declared that "nobody loses their starting job because they're injured," didn't put Greyson Lambert on the injury list, and didn't start him - and then didn't even play him, despite assurances to the contrary, because a quarterback who completed less than half his passes was in too much of a rhythm.

So I really hope it's just that London thinks he's being clever by continuing to refuse to name an actual starter, but I have my doubts.  Matt Johns didn't play horribly last week, but that impression comes about only because the passes he did complete went for big yardage.  (And because it was still better than almost every David Watford performance.)

This area is where UNC diverges heavily from Duke, however.  Duke had a respectable pass defense.  UNC hasn't been able to stop anyone.  OK, Clemson's Deshaun Watson has turned out to be a pretty good quarterback.  But Quinn Kaehler?  San Diego State is just slightly inside the top-100 in passing efficiency and the Aztec QB Kaehler threw for 341 yards.  Carolina doesn't bring an aggressive pass rush, and probably has only one player who elicits much concern in offensive coordinators: cornerback Brian Walker, who's picked off three passes and returned them all a long way.

Given a choice, I'd prefer to see Lambert play most, if not all, of the game.  Against a pass defense like this one, incomplete passes are a waste of time, and you'd rather not give UNC's offense much of a chance to get on the field.  The worst thing you can do is a three-and-out drive that takes a minute off the clock.  If Michael Brewer can complete two-thirds of his passes and lead VT to 34 points, surely the Hoos can figure this out too.

-- UNC run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Marquise Williams: 91 carries, 448 yards, 4.9 avg, 4 TDs
T.J. Logan: 47 carries, 213 yards, 4.5 avg., 1 TD

UNC offense:
152.3 yards/game, 4.07 yards/attempt
80th of 128 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
100.6 yards/game, 3.03 yards/attempt
11th of 128 (national), 2nd of 14 (ACC)

It looks like UNC won't have running back Elijah Hood for Saturday; Hood leads Carolina's RBs in carries, but Romar Morris has been just as productive, and T.J. Logan's been better.  News has been better for UNC on the offensive line, though; the right side consists of Landon Turner and Jon Heck, both of whom missed time with injuries earlier in the year, and both of whom got back on the field in the past couple weeks.  Not coincidentally, UNC ran for about 190 yards in both the ND and GT games.

The primary ballcarrier, though, is quarterback Marquise Williams, because UNC runs a great deal of read-option.  In the basic-est of read-option plays, a right-handed quarterback like Williams runs to the left while the RB heads right, so strong days from Logan and Morris with a fully healthy right side of the line were no surprise.

Williams is a strong runner; he's a fairly big guy, linebacker-sized but elusive.  Quin Blanding learned a lesson about college quarterbacks when UCLA's Brett Hundley ran him over in front of the goal line; this is the time to apply it.  Blanding's got a tough job in the read-option.  He has to watch the handoff and head where the ball is, while ensuring that there isn't a receiver streaking downfield.  The read-option creates a numerical mismatch in favor of the offense, so quality safety play - i.e., bringing reinforcements - is one way to nullify that.  Traditionally the read-option is defended with a "scrape exchange" which lures the QB into keeping and then running smack into a linebacker.  In this case that will be Daquan Romero, another very important player for this matchup.

The third way to beat the read-option?  Simply blow it up at the line.  One of its goals is to get multiple blockers onto the second level, which is hard to do if Jon Tenuta has dialed up the right blitz.  Anyway, the run game in Fedora's offense is a clear second fiddle.  UVA is strong against the run for a reason, and should have success regardless, but this isn't the main matchup.

-- UNC pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Marquise Williams: 156/242, 64.5%; 1,776 yards, 15 TDs, 6 INTs; 7.34 avg.

Top receivers:
Ryan Switzer: 34 rec., 429 yards, 3 TDs
Mack Hollins: 24 rec., 435 yards, 5 TDs
Bug Howard: 23 rec., 197 yards, 2 TDs

UNC offense:
300.0 yards/game, 7.14 yards/attempt
62nd of 128, 5th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
230.7 yards/game, 6.48 yards/attempt
35th of 128 (national), 7th of 14 (ACC)

This didn't go well last week.  Zero sacks, zero turnovers.  Under those circumstances, holding Duke to 20 points is pretty decent, but it's four scoring drives.  UNC has only allowed 11 sacks in 7 games thanks to a solid O-line in protection and quick-hitting passes, and Williams has only thrown six picks as well.  And with a faster-paced offense, four scoring drives could turn into six.

Coverage will simply have to be excellent, and a little more pressure on Williams would help.  He's elusive, has a strong arm, and can extend a play with his feet and then fit the ball into a small spot.  And the Heels spread it around a lot.  Quite a few plays go to the running backs, but four different receivers all have 20+ catches this year.  Ryan Switzer in particular is speedy and dangerous in the open field, and the Heels like to set him up in the slot with blockers and space.

UNC also likes to be tricky; receivers Switzer and Quinshad Davis have each thrown a touchdown (one of which was to Williams) as well as punter Tommy Hibbard.  When you run as many plays as UNC does (they're one of the fastest teams in the country at just under 80 plays a game) the bag of tricks has to be large.

UVA needs to score points, yes, but the game is likely to be won or lost here.  Pretty much nobody's been able to stop the UNC passing attack, except for VT.  UVA can't likely win a shootout, so the Hoos need to drag the point total down to a more workable level.  Cut down on UNC's big plays and limit their passing attack, and it's possible; if UNC is able to put up 40-plus points again, UVA probably won't be able to overcome that.

-- Favorability ratings

UVA run offense: 5.5
UVA pass offense: 6.5
UVA run defense: 6
UVA pass defense: 2.5

Average: 5.125

-- Outlook

This is a very, very big game.  I don't usually go in for speculation about "is this Mike London's most important game???" but this is about that important.  With Miami and FSU both yet to be played (and let's face it, Miami is a good team and the likely favorite for the division title) 4-4 is no place to be if you want to get bowl eligible.  That most likely requires beating both Georgia Tech and VT to get there.

Well, GT is basically Carolina with a funkier offense.  No defense at all, but capable of winning a shootout.  Can't beat UNC?  Then probably would have trouble with GT.  And VT, despite the fact that their 24/7 board boasts no fewer than 22 different "fire the coaches" threads from just the Miami game alone, undoubtedly has something up their sleeve the same way they surprised Ohio State.

So this is the crossroads.  Win this one, and finding one more - just one more, even two - should be doable, and confidence will be renewed.  Lose and....well, we don't even know if 6-6 would save London's job, let alone something worse.

-- Predictions

- Greyson Lambert starts.

- The UVA passing game generates over 300 yards.

- UVA passes more than they run.

- UNC also passes for more than 300 yards.

- Zero sacks again for UVA, but not zero turnovers.

- UNC averages fewer than 4 yards a carry.

Final score: UVA 31, UNC 28

-- Rest of the ACC

Byes: Duke, Florida State, Louisville, NC State

-- Miami 30, Virginia Tech 6 - Thu. - Overheard from the broadcasters:

"Can you imagine [the VT] offense against [the UVA] defense??"
"..."
"........."
"I don't think I want to."

"The Coastal is so wide-open; you can't count out any team in the race."
"Well, except for Virginia Tech."

-- Boston College @ Wake Forest - 3:30 - It's rare that a team is as much of a running powerhouse as BC without employing some Paul Johnsonish throwback kind of offense, but BC pulls it off.

-- Georgia Tech @ Pittsburgh - 3:30 - Five teams in the Coastal are either 2-1 or 2-2, including these two.  This week should help clarify things a little.  For GT's side of things, they started hot but it's not inconceivable (though also not real likely) that they could finish outside the bowl picture, even though they only need one more win.

-- Syracuse @ Clemson - 7:00 - Clemson should add themselves to the ACC's bowl rolls this week.

game preview: Brigham Young

Date/Time: Saturday, September 20; 3:30

TV: ESPN

Record against the Cougars: 3-1

Last meeting: UVA 19, BYU 16; 8/31/13, Charlottesville

Last weekend: UVA 23, UL 21; BYU 33, UH 25

Line: BYU by 15

Injury report: N/A

Last year's win set a great tone for the season: very solid defense and enough capitalizing on opponent mistakes to come away with a win.  Afterwards, of course: thbpt.  Winning that game led our thoughts completely astray, and it was two more months before the ugly truth truly sank in.  This year, the positive feelings from a win are a lot less likely to be phony; it's the last win that left a nagging doubt, but that can be washed away by doing it again.

-- UVA run offense vs. BYU run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 52 carries, 173 yards, 3.7 ypc, 1 TD
Taquan Mizzell: 22 carries, 87 yards, 4.0 ypc, 1 TD

UVA offense:
130.33 yards/game, 3.29 yards/attempt
108th of 128 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)

BYU defense:
54.33 yards/game, 2.06 yards/attempt
5th of 128 (national)

At this point it's getting hard to hope that the run game will be anything more than what it is: a marginally competent attack that has moments every now and then, but won't work with the consistency a good offense demands.  Counter plays are unusually effective, which I think is because the defense gets more penetration than it should and finds itself hard-pressed to catch up to the running back going the other way.  Otherwise, most of the yards seem to come from Kevin Parks's churning thunder-thighs, which are effective at clearing out a 3-yard gain after initial contact at the line of scrimmage.

The Louisville game didn't inspire in me a lot of confidence that the performance was repeatable, and the run game is why.  UVA failed to take advantage of a number of tremendous opportunities.  In order to take advantage of really good field position you have to run the ball, because the defense has less pass-game area to cover.  Misdirection works on your own 30, much less so on the other guy's 10.  UVA was only about 50% effective in the red zone.  (Don't buy it when they count a field goal like they always do.  Getting a field goal in one try isn't 100% effectiveness, it's 42.9%.)  That's got to improve.

This is a really hard game to make that happen.  BYU started their game last week with a safety on a Houston run play and crushed the UH run game all day; they ended up allowing 10 yards on 13 tries.  Neither UConn nor Texas fared very well either.  The efforts on defense are led by linebacker Zac Stout and safety Craig Bills.  The funny thing is that the Cougars aren't doing it by repeatedly slicing into the backfield; they're just very stout at the line and they specialize in the 1-yard gain.

This section of the matchup is our worst against their best, and it's a significant disadvantage for the Hoos.  I don't see Taquan Mizzell being a factor at all; any yards UVA can scrape out will mostly be after contact, which means Parks falling forward is most of the running game.

-- UVA pass offense vs. BYU pass defense

Quarterback:
Greyson Lambert: 42/62, 67.7%; 376 yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs; 6.07 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Taquan Mizzell: 14 rec., 52 yards, 0 TDs
Canaan Severin: 11 rec., 107 yards, 2 TDs
Darius Jennings: 8 rec., 149 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
203.3 yards/game, 6.22 yards/attempt
92nd of 128 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

BYU defense:
258.3 yards/game, 5.87 yards/attempt
25th of 128 (national)

The likely anemia produced by the running game means Greyson Lambert will have to be really sharp, and bolder than he has been so far.  I say Lambert even though there's the ubiquitous OR sitting on the depth chart still; I've decided I think that's either London's idea of a smokescreen for the BYU DC, or him being unwilling to send the message to Matt Johns that he's fallen back to second string officially.  Either way, I think Lambert is the man; Johns may get a series or two, but no more.

The biggest threat on BYU's defense is, again, the experienced free safety Craig Bills.  Linebackers Alani Fua and Bronson Kaufusi are the pass-rushing threats; no lineman in BYU's 3-4 defense has a sack, but Kaufusi is a converted DE and the weakside linebacker, so he's a pass-rushing type even with the position switch.  BYU's corners aren't overly aggressive, which provides a possible opportunity for the short passing game that Steve Fairchild seems to favor.

The guess here is that UVA gets the vast majority of its yards through the air.  BYU's pass defense isn't bad, but the offenses that they've stopped aren't particularly competent.  Eyebrow-raising as it sounds, UVA will have the best pass offense the Cougars have faced, which is mainly a stinging indictment of said previous opponents.  (They aren't much good at the run either, but they're at least better.)  BYU's run defense is legit, but the pass defense needs more of a test before anyone can make that declaration, so in that regard, there's an opening for Lambert.

-- BYU run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Taysom Hill: 62 carries, 356 yards, 5.7 ypc, 6 TDs
Jamaal Williams: 47 carries, 228 yards, 4.9 ypc, 2 TDs

BYU offense:
258.67 yards/game, 4.88 yards/attempt
48th of 128 (national)

UVA defense:
84.67 yards/game, 2.62 yards/attempt
16th of 128 (national), 4th of 14 (ACC)

Last year I wrote that Jamaal Williams was the focus of the run game, but that their new quarterback Taysom Hill would be asked to carry the ball a lot.  That wasn't wrong, but since then, the roles have flipped; Hill blossomed as a runner last year, piling up over 1,300 yards on the ground.  Hill is the primary ballcarrier; Williams, the change of pace.  There are spot carries available for a few other players, but Hill and Williams are basically it.

Hill is right back at it this year, with no fewer than 97 yards in each of his first three games, and 160 against Houston.  Williams didn't play against UConn, but ran for 139 yards of his own in the UH game.  These are not bad run defenses that BYU has played, either; they've all allowed about 3.5 yards a carry this year, but more to BYU.

So this is the most interesting matchup of the game.  Even if they haven't played schmos so far, UVA is a clear step up from anything BYU has seen.  Eli Harold is one defensive end who can consistently chase down Hill, and of course I'm not missing any chances this year to talk up the linebackers.  Daquan Romero should play a big role in this one, as UVA's primary outside 'backer.  I won't go so far as to say this is the matchup that decides the game, because actually it'll probably be more of a stalemate.  The respective air games will decide.  But it's UVA's tremendous run defense that gives us the chance to let that happen.

-- BYU pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Taysom Hill: 67/98, 68.4%; 689 yards, 4 TDs, 3 INTs; 7.03 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Jordan Leslie: 15 rec., 186 yards, 0 TDs
Mitch Mathews: 13 rec., 108 yards, 2 TDs
Algernon Brown: 8 rec., 84 yards, 0 TDs

BYU offense:
229.7 yards/game, 7.03 yards/game
75th of 128 (national)

UVA defense:
269.3 yards/game, 6.52 yards/attempt
50th of 108 (national), 8th of 14 (ACC)

Hill, last year, was what you expect from a new dual-threat starter: pretty inaccurate.  He's fixed up that aspect of his game pretty nicely, with a completion rate over 2/3; it's partly due to maturity and partly due to a lot of turnover among the receiving corps, which in turn has led to shorter, safer passes.  BYU won't be looking to bomb it downfield, and their receivers look a lot like ours, which is to say, big.

The top receivers, Jordan Leslie and Mitch Mathews, stand 6'3 and 6'6", respectively.  Terenn Houk is 6'5"; he's got six catches this year.  With size like that, the tight ends aren't a big part of the BYU's passing game.  The guys who are, though, are the backup running backs.  Jamaal Williams only does a minimal amount of pass-catching; spotting another running back in the game is a little bit of a tip that a pass to them is coming.

UVA's pass defense is pretty average - if the receivers get the ball.  Hill will do a lot of passing outside the pocket, but he's only 6'2" - when he does stand in the pocket, expect UVA's linemen to start thinking bat-down.  And obviously, UVA has to be aware of the scramble.  The Hoos have plenty of sacks, but they've also been maddeningly proficient at letting QBs slip away.  Hill is one of the slitheriest quarterbacks UVA will see all season, and simply grabbing at him won't bring him down.

It could be a little dangerous for UVA for that reason; the Hoos thrive on pressure, but Hill is hard to pin down that way.  It won't always be the first wave that gets him.  UVA needs to bring a second wave and be sticky in coverage - both much easier said than done for an offense that wants to get rid of the ball quick.  Secondary play will be huge, to keep BYU from succeeding with quick hitters, and to try and nullify the height their receivers bring.

-- Favorability ratings

- UVA run offense: 1.5
- UVA pass offense: 4.5
- UVA run defense: 6.5
- UVA pass defense: 5

Average: 4.38

-- Outlook

One of the tougher games UVA will play the rest of the way.  I'm not going to freak out about the altitude - it's about 4,500 feet, which isn't high enough to have our guys sucking wind in the second quarter.  What worries me is style.  Yes, the Hoos shut down running QB Brett Hundley of UCLA, but Hundley isn't very fast; Hill is faster, and BYU is a less conventional offense overall.  Don't get me wrong - our defense is also unlike anything BYU has seen.

But if winning means just barely converting on all sorts of golden chances the way Louisville served them up, I don't like our odds on the road against a team at least as good as the Cardinals are.  UVA won't be able to run, which means if we're going to see a win, Lambert must have the best game of his career.

-- Predictions

- At least 75% of UVA's offensive yardage is through the air.

- Greyson Lambert has a season (and career) high in pass attempts.

- Kevin Parks has at least 75% of UVA's rushing yards.

- Both Hill and Williams get at least half a yard less per carry than their season average.

- Hill doesn't complete 60% of his passes.

Final score: BYU 23, UVA 16

-- Rest of the ACC

Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech, 12:00 - If GT is as bad as I think they are, and VT is as pissed off as they should be, then you can take VT giving eight points as the lock of the week.

Pittsburgh vs. Iowa, 12:00 - Steel meets corn.  The unfortunate thing for Pitt, though, is that Iowa - whose uniforms were purposely modeled after the Steelers - will look right at home in Heinz Field.

Syracuse vs. Maryland, 12:30 - Another chance to serenade the Terps with a nice little ACC chant.  But win the game first.

Duke vs. Tulane, 12:30 - Two of the South's best schools.

Boston College vs. Maine, 1:00 - Maine's two games this year: a 10-6 win and a 13-10 loss.  Woo offense.

Louisville @ Florida Int'l, 3:30 - Our new ACC members (looking at Pitt, too) have got to learn about life in the penthouse: you can make FIU visit you now.

Wake Forest vs. Army, 3:30 - Wake's last real chance at a win this year.

North Carolina @ East Carolina, 3:30 - ECU has a chance to really be a UVA fan's second-favorite team.

NC State vs. Presbyterian, 6:00 - NC State finishes off one of the weeniest OOC schedules in recent memory.

Miami @ Nebraska, 8:00 - Remember when this game would've been positively titanic?  Also remember when it would've been called Canevicts vs. Cornvicts?

Clemson @ Florida State, 8:00 - The FHRITP that changed the world - or at least, the ACC race.

the recruit: Tanner Cowley

Name: Tanner Cowley
Position: TE
Hometown: Manasquan, NJ
School: Manasquan
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 210

24/7: 84, three stars; #59 WDE, NJ #30
ESPN: 73, three stars; #105 OLB, NJ #38, East #187
Rivals: 5.4, two stars; NJ #35
Scout: three stars; #123 DE

Other offers: Rutgers, UConn, Buffalo

A bit of a big deal was made last year over UVA whiffing so badly in the so-named DMV area in 2014, and rightfully so as it's essentially our front yard.  But did you also know, the last prospects we pulled from New Jersey signed in 2012?  It'll be three years, which is also quite a long time for a state that by my unofficial guess sends the most out-of-staters to UVA other than Maryland.

Here's the streak-breaker.  Tanner Cowley is a somewhat lightly-recruited prospect from the Jersey Shore, who fits the mold of the type of player Mike London often aims for - that is, he doesn't fit any mold especially, being more of a generic athlete with ability on either side of the ball and a frame you can shape to your needs.  The recruiting services can't seem to agree whether he's a linebacker or defensive end (IMO he plays too much pass coverage to be a DE) and he's apparently going to be neither at UVA.  He's been slotted intially at tight end instead.

The problem is, I think - based of course on nothing more than any regular schmo has access to - he'd be a better linebacker than tight end, but UVA's linebacker class is beastly good.  Cowley's highlights don't show him doing great deeds at receiver, except for when he uses his size to outmuscle a defender for a jump ball.**  Certainly a useful thing as a tight end, although it's all muscle and not much jump.  His routes are extremely basic, even when he's split out wide as a true receiver.  I like him better as a linebacker because he hits people with a pretty fair amount of power (both on offense and defense) and because of this line from ESPN's evaluation: "This is an instinctive player with quick key and diagnosis reaction skills; isn't fooled by play action or misdirection run plays."

Coaches spend years trying to teach that.  It's difficult to replicate.  It's exactly what you want out of a linebacker.  It's what I like so much about Daquan Romero - the guy sniffs out screen plays like a bloodhound.  Cowley wouldn't need to spend a lot of time bulking up, either.  I think he'd make a very nice weak-side linebacker, given time to adjust to the speed of the college game and to learn the schemes and what all.

But with Cowley at linebacker we'd have 13 of them next year, which is too many - it's more than four deep and that's even assuming you run three most of the time, which we don't - a great deal of our time is spent in sort of a 4-2-5 setup.  So instead, they'll try and put 30-40 pounds on him and have him be a tight end, which makes a ton more sense from a depth chart perspective, considering the extremely uncertain availability of Mario Nixon (who will probably never play a down.)  The list of returning tight ends entirely consists of Rob Burns and Evan Butts, so the depth chart is very inviting in that regard, where Cowley will compete only with Richard Burney in his class.

Burns is a bit of a cautionary tale for Cowley, who will need to seize on the opportunity.  Burns, you'll recall, began as a DE but didn't stick, and has taken a while to get up to speed at TE.  Cowley needs to stake a claim to a position early, or we won't really ever see him until 2017 or 2018.  His blocking looks as though it'll be ahead of his pass-catching, so once he arrives, not noticing him shouldn't be confused with him not playing; still, he's not getting on the field as a 210- or 220-pound tight end, so the faster he adds good weight, the better his career will be for it.

**The Rivals highlight is hilariously worth watching just for the second play.  Cowley is split wide with a cornerback about ten yards off the line; the CB takes two steps back and then abandons his post with gusto, preferring instead to be the (completely unnecessary) third guy covering the slot receiver drifting toward the sideline.  Where the safety is, I dunno, but Cowley gets acres of open space all to his lonesome, and nobody else is seen on the screen until he's about at the goal line already.  It's How Not To Play Zone 101.

********************************************

I just remembered something about Tony Bennett's 2016 commitment, Ty Jerome - it's not that I forgot to write a profile, it's that I forgot to tell you why I'm not (yet).  We're going to wait til he plays his junior season, that's why.  Tony has the ability to get a nice early start on that class, so it wouldn't surprise me if I had two or even three of them sitting in the hopper waiting for a little more exposure before I commit myself to evaluating anything.

game preview: Richmond

Date/Time: Saturday, September 6; 3:30

TV: ESPN3

Record against the Spiders: 27-2-2

Last meeting: UVA 43, UR 19; 9/1/12, Charlottesville

Last weekend: UCLA 28, UVA 20; UR 55, Morehead St. 10

Line: none

Injury report: N/A

It's hard to find a matchup of I-A and I-AA teams that's full of storylines, but this one always seems to qualify.  A couple years ago it was all about the UVA connection on the UR coaching staff - which is still true, by the way, with Byron Thweatt and Fontel Mines represented, along with a couple former UVA assistant coaches - and now it's the quarterbacks, too.  Michael Strauss and Mike Rocco aren't the first UVA quarterbacks to end up in Richmond, but then, Bryson Spinner never played against UVA after doing so.  So there'll be quite a few Spiders who really want to take the Hoos down a peg.

-- UVA run offense vs. UR run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 17 carries, 55 yards, 3.2 ypc, 0 TDs
Taquan Mizzell: 10 carries, 31 yards, 3.1 ypc, 0 TDs

UVA offense:
120 yards/game, 3.08 yards/attempt
94th of 122 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)

UR defense:
100 yards/game, 3.57 yards/attempt
36th of 103 (national), 5th of 12 (CAA)

The running game was only marginally effective - at best - against UCLA.  It didn't offer much hope for the O-line this year.  This week, though, a respite seems in order.  Richmond's stats against Morehead State aren't that bad, but worse than you'd maybe expect to see from a game like that.  Morehead State is one of the weaker teams in one of I-AA's weakest leagues: the Pioneer League, a conclave of teams that don't offer football scholarships at all.  Morehead State is about to take on Pikeville this week - an NAIA team that they lost to last year.  So any failure to completely dominate Morehead State in any aspect of the game is an exploitable weakness.  Richmond's defensive playmaking was almost exclusively in the defensive backfield, the one notable exception being linebacker Aaron Roane.  The D-line was of little use, so this matchup should be a pretty slanted one.

-- UVA pass offense vs. UR pass defense

Quarterbacks:
Greyson Lambert: 16/23, 69.6%; 112 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs; 4.87 yards/attempt
Matt Johns: 13/22, 59.1%; 154 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs; 7.00 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Taquan Mizzell: 6 rec., 15 yards, 0 TDs
Canaan Severin: 5 rec., 55 yards, 0 TDs
Doni Dowling: 5 rec., 25 yards, 0 TDs

UVA offense:
266 yards/game, 5.9 yards/attempt
89th of 122 (national); 11th of 14 (ACC)

UR defense:
209 yards/game, 4.35 yards/attempt
19th of 103 (national); 2nd of 12 (CAA)

Richmond looked better here, playing pretty effectively against Morehead State's passing game, but again - they didn't dominate.  The Spiders picked up no sacks and no interceptions, and Morehead's Austin Gahafer was able to complete 62% - though much like Greyson Lambert against UCLA, he was dink-dunking, which contributes some to the lack of big plays on defense for Richmond.

Mike London is about to coach in his 51st game at UVA, and in more than 30 of them, he's used two quarterbacks.  This will just increase that already insanely high percentage, although at least this time, I agree with the need to do so.  If he's smart, he'll alternate possessions rather than giving one half to one quarterback - that way, he's evaluating their play against the same defensive personnel.

Problem is, quarterback competitions being what they are, I don't expect a lot of separation.  Richmond isn't likely to be good enough to provide many decision points.  Both of them should fare well here.  What we're more likely to see is some clarification at receiver.  Somebody will have an eight-catch game, somewhere.  The UCLA game saw a lot of different players step up, and we didn't even get to see much of Keeon Johnson or any of Jamil Kamara, so the game will start with a really muddy picture at receiver; I think it'll clear up some by the end, though.

-- UR run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Jacobi Green: 9 carries, 42 yards, 4.7 ypc, 0 TDs
Seth Fisher: 8 carries, 48 yards, 6.0 ypc, 0 TDs

UR offense:
235.0 yards/game, 5.22 yards/attempt
25th of 103 (national); 2nd of 12 (CAA)

UVA defense:
116.0 yards/game, 2.97 yards/attempt
45th of 122 (national); 5th of 14 (ACC)

The strictures of my own format forbid listing them all, but Richmond was able to really spread the carries around against Morehead, with the main ballcarriers being the ones listed above: Seth Fisher and Jacobi Green.  That was Richmond's two-headed attack last year, the two combining for a shade over 1,000 yards on the season.  They're both big, rumbly backs, especially Fisher, and Richmond brought out another bowling ball in the fourth quarter last week, in the form of true freshman Jeremiah Hamlin.  Hamlin ended up as the game's leading rusher, with 80 yards in just a quarter of work - though, again, it was the fourth.

Richmond's O-line is pretty good for I-AA, especially at center where Austin Gund piles up all-conference honors pretty quickly.  The line is big, as big as you'd find on the I-A level.  Still, it's a matchup of strength on strength.  What I like here is UVA's linebackers; Richmond's backs are big, but they aren't speed merchants in the least degree; Coley and Romero are physically fairly quick but mentally much quicker, and should be able to stuff the run game pretty consistently.

-- UR pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterbacks:
Michael Strauss: 17/23, 73.9%; 259 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs; 11.3 yards/attempt
Mike Rocco: 9/13, 69.2%; 117 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; 9.0 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Stephen Barnette: 6 rec., 76 yards, 1 TD
Brian Brown: 5 rec., 110 yards, 0 TDs
Rashad Ponder: 4 rec., 33 yards, 0 TDs

UR offense:
408.0 yards/game, 9.95 yards/attempt
11th of 103 (national); 1st of 12 (CAA)

UVA defense:
242.0 yards/game, 7.1 yards/attempt
77th of 122 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)

Those numbers for the UVA defense don't seem quite fair, given the harassment laid on Brett Hundley all day long last week.  The secondary was a little disappointing, though; Tim Harris appeared to have a rough day in coverage.  Richmond could present another challenge at times.  To start off with, Michael Strauss had a terrific year for the Spiders last year.  Against Morehead he was still the undisputed starter, despite speculation that Mike Rocco would give him a challenge.  After all, Rocco did beat Strauss out once already.

I think we'll see less of Rocco than people think, though.  Strauss picked up against Morehead where he left off last year, and Rocco threw the game's lone interception.  Richmond has a really dangerous go-to weapon in Stephen Barnette, a tall and lanky receiver who averaged nearly 100 yards a game last year.  Brian Brown could be emerging as a danger spot as well; he's a sophomore who had a big game last week and nearly eclipsed his freshman-year stats in just that one game.

Obviously, keeping up the pressure has to be a bread-and-butter thing for UVA this year if the defense is to keep the Hoos in games.  It was a lot of fun last week, watching Hundley scramble for his life and never even sure which side the heat would come from.  The Richmond QBs left UVA before Jon Tenuta got here, so they haven't seen his mad-hatter blitzing in practice at all.

-- Favorability ratings

A feature that returns from last year.  Still early in the season to be nailing these down with tons of accuracy, but it doesn't stop me from trying.

UVA run offense: 8.5
UVA pass offense: 8.5
UVA run defense: 9
UVA pass defense: 7.5

Average: 8.375

-- Outlook

As justifiably skeptical as anyone might be about Mike London's abilities, there's this going for him: UVA has never had any trouble with I-AA teams under his tenure.  I figure that's got a lot to do with the high level of talent London's brought in.  At some point, superior athleticism just becomes too much.  Richmond has a passing game that's often the envy of the CAA, but they don't have a way to stop Eli Harold from screwing with it.  UVA should be able to grind out a fairly easy and somewhat anticlimactic win.

-- Predictions

-- Both Johns and Lambert throw for over 150 yards, and their final stats are not very distinguishable from each other.

-- A UVA receiver grabs at least 8 receptions.

-- Taquan Mizzell finally breaks the long gain we've been waiting to see - 50 yards or more.

-- Rocco's presence is basically a non-issue, with Strauss throwing at least 2.5 times more passes than him.

-- UVA picks up at least four more sacks.

-- Richmond's offense is held scoreless in the first half, but not the whole game.

Final score: UVA 38, UR 14

-- Rest of the ACC

Pittsburgh @ Boston College - Fri. - Is anyone else still having trouble getting used to this matchup of northern urban schools as an ACC game?

Clemson vs. South Carolina State - 12:30 - Clemson was no help whatsoever for the ACC's rep last week.  Not that they were the only ones, though.

Georgia Tech @ Tulane - 4:00 - I'm not convinced that GT is all that big a favorite here.  I mean, they should win.  But.

NC State vs. Old Dominion - 6:00 - See Georgia Tech blurb.

Wake Forest vs. Gardner-Webb - 6:30 - Uh, maybe ditto.  Wake is every ounce as bad as I thought they were.  This could be their only win all year.

Louisville vs. Murray State - 7:00 - Yes, this is Boring Week in the ACC, in case you had been wondering.

Miami vs. Florida A&M - 7:00 - I mean, only four games are on national TV, which doesn't count ESPN3 but does count ESPNews.

Duke @ Troy - 7:00 - There are some that say Duke is smart to "schedule for success."  You know how I feel about that, but here's one more point: when you're scheduling home-and-homes with Troy, it's likely you're scheduling that way because you can't do any better if you tried.

Florida State vs. The Citadel - 7:30 - Jameis Winston will play this game under the spectre of a Title IX sexual assault investigation, which I'm sure will result in a sternly worded note in his student file.

North Carolina vs. San Diego State - 8:00 - UNC will get a few suspended players back for this one, because their hazing investigation found there wasn't any room left underneath the rug.

Virginia Tech @ Ohio State - 8:00 - I love games like this, where someone has to lose.

full-fledged 2014 ACC preview

Whew.  All 13 opposing-team previews are out - finally - after busting my butt all weekend on that stuff.  Because of that I'm letting myself brag again: if you can find a more in-depth free preview, lemme know so I can beat it next year.  I mean, sure, Phil Steele kicks my ass, but you gotta pay him for the privilege.

We're not all the way done, though, because it's time to put the whole thing together.  I liked how this worked last year so I'm only making a few tweaks.  Your table of contents is:

-- Positional rankings
-- Cumulative rankings
-- Schedule rankings
-- Hot-seat coaches
-- Bowl predictions

For reference, here are the links to the individual previews:

Boston College
Clemson
Duke
Florida State
Georgia Tech
Louisville
Miami
North Carolina
NC State
Pittsburgh
Syracuse
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest

Time to get crackin'.

Positional rankings

-- Quarterback:

1. Florida State - Jameis Winston
2. Duke - Anthony Boone
3. North Carolina - Marquise Williams
4. Clemson - Cole Stoudt
5. Syracuse - Terrel Hunt
6. NC State - Jacoby Brissett
7. Pittsburgh - Chad Voytik
8. Boston College - Tyler Murphy
9. Miami - Brad Kaaya
10. Virginia - Greyson Lambert
11. Louisville - Will Gardner
12. Georgia Tech - Justin Thomas
13. Virginia Tech - Michael Brewer
14. Wake Forest - John Wolford

Yeesh.  Do you realize that 10 of 14 ACC teams will be breaking in a new starting quarterback this year?  And that doesn't even count UNC, which still has an OR on the QB depth chart and apparently plans to either platoon Marquise Williams and Mitch Trubisky, or hide their intentions as long as they can.  If Trubisky starts for UNC this weekend, there'll be three freshman starters in the ACC, to go with five redshirt sophomores.

This is a long way of saying that half of this ranking is voodoo magic.  OK, Jameis Winston goes up top.  A little bonus for returning starters, and then a huge helping of my own opinion.  Chad Voytik?  Brad Kaaya?  Greyson Lambert?  Who knows, man.  With all but the very top and the very bottom, almost just pull 'em out of a hat.

-- Pass catchers (WR/TE)

1. Pittsburgh - Tyler Boyd, Manasseh Garner
2. Duke - Jamison Crowder, Max McCaffrey
3. Louisville - DeVante Parker, Eli Rogers
4. Florida State - Rashad Greene, Nick O'Leary
5. North Carolina - Quinshad Davis, Ryan Switzer
6. Miami - Phillip Dorsett, Stacy Coley
7. Clemson - Charone Peake, Mike Williams
8. Syracuse - Ashton Broyld, Jarrod West
9. Virginia Tech - Joshua Stanford, Willie Byrn
10. NC State - Bryan Underwood, Jumichael Ramos
11. Georgia Tech - DeAndre Smelter, Micheal Summers
12. Virginia - Darius Jennings, Keeon Johnson
13. Boston College - Bobby Swigert, Shakim Phillips
14. Wake Forest - Matt James, E.J. Scott

Another tough ranking, and here it's a matter of philosophy.  Do you like a team with a proven big-time star but little depth, or do you prefer a team with a couple of decent players but some five-star freshmen waiting in the wings?  To make things worse, there aren't many impact tight ends in the conference, a situation only exacerbated when Duke lost Braxton Deaver for the season.

We'll go with the big-timers on top, since Tyler Boyd and Jamison Crowder are clearly the top two receivers in the conference, and they have at least one dependable secondary target to take some of the defensive edge off the coverage.  I'll just have to accept the possibility that teams like Clemson and FSU will use their freshman talent to make me look silly by November.

-- Running backs

1. Miami - Duke Johnson, Gus Edwards
2. Pittsburgh - James Conner, Isaac Bennett
3. Florida State - Karlos Williams, Dalvin Cook
4. Louisville - Dominique Brown, Michael Dyer
5. Virginia - Kevin Parks, Taquan Mizzell
6. North Carolina - T.J. Logan, Elijah Hood
7. Duke - Shaq Powell, Josh Snead
8. Syracuse - Prince-Tyson Gulley, George Morris
9. Virginia Tech - Trey Edmunds, J.C. Coleman
10. Georgia Tech - Zach Laskey, Tony Zenon
11. NC State - Shadrach Thornton, Tony Creecy
12. Clemson - D.J. Howard, C.J. Davidson
13. Boston College - Myles Willis, Tyler Rouse
14. Wake Forest - Orville Reynolds, Dominique Gibson

This might the skill position where the ACC is deepest.  A couple star receivers, but not too many - maybe wait til November to see who else emerges.  But at running back, Duke Johnson is a superstar if healthy and Karlos Williams might turn out to be one too.  Pitt boasts two quality, proven backs, one of whom is completely huge.  Michael Dyer is a former MVP of the BCS CG and he's not even the best on his team right now.  Kevin Parks ground out 1,000 yards last year, and the possibilities for Elijah Hood are through the roof.  I enjoy this state of affairs, because a dominant running back is my favorite thing in football.  Last year I underestimated things, for example by putting eventual 2,000-yard rusher Andre Williams of BC 10th.  Nice work.  This year I'm sippin' on the Kool-Aid.

-- Offensive line

1. Florida State - LT Cameron Erving
2. Boston College - C Andy Gallik
3. Louisville - LG John Miller
4. Duke - RG Laken Tomlinson
5. Syracuse - LT Sean Hickey
6. Clemson - C Ryan Norton
7. Miami - LG Jon Feliciano
8. Virginia Tech - LG David Wang
9. NC State - RT Tyson Chandler
10. North Carolina - RG Landon Turner
11. Pittsburgh - LG Matt Rotheram
12. Georgia Tech - RG Shaquille Mason
13. Virginia - RG Conner Davis
14. Wake Forest - RT Dylan Intemann

What struck me in going through the O-line rankings was how many of the ACC's lines have guards as their experienced anchors.  Not too many big-time left tackles.  That's nice for the running games, I suppose - it's probably also nice for the ACC's defensive ends.

Also: thank heavens for Wake Forest, because I look at some of these lines in this league and then I look at ours and I go: well crap.  BC and FSU don't start a single player who isn't a senior.  Isn't that kind of the goal?  Our injury-riddled mess is saved from the cellar by the fact that Wake is starting a true freshman at center.  That was the tiebreaker right there.  But anyone consumed with optimism over our O-line, well, should probably take a look at the upper echelons of those rankings to see what things look like if you've been doing it right.

-- Defensive line

1. Clemson - Vic Beasley
2. Virginia Tech - Luther Maddy
3. NC State - Thomas Teal
4. Virginia - Eli Harold
5. Florida State - Mario Edwards
6. Boston College - Connor Wujciak
7. Miami - Anthony Chickillo
8. Syracuse - Robert Welsh
9. North Carolina - Norkeithus Otis
10. Louisville - B.J. Dubose
11. Pittsburgh - Shakir Soto
12. Georgia Tech - Adam Gotsis
13. Duke - Jamal Bruce
14. Wake Forest - Zachary Allen

If there's a saving grace for UVA's offensive line, it's the state of defensive lines in the conference.  Lots of graduation means lots of inexperience up and down the coast, and frankly, just some plain bad defensive lines here.  Again, Wake is stinking up the joint.  Duke is full of career backups.  GT would be worse than both of those two if not for the star power of Adam Gotsis, who will probably be quadruple-teamed on every play.  It gives the Hoos, with Eli Harold and David Dean, and major potential in Andrew Brown, a chance to shine.

Up top, Clemson gets the nod not only because Vic Beasley is disgustingly good, but the line is completely loaded down with seniors, and Grady Jarrett is almost as good as Beasley.  The Clemson-Wake Forest game - oh dear God.

-- Linebackers

1. Virginia - Henry Coley
2. Clemson - Stephone Anthony
3. Syracuse - Cameron Lynch
4. Louisville - Lorenzo Mauldin
5. North Carolina - Travis Hughes
6. Georgia Tech - Quayshawn Nealy
7. Pittsburgh - Anthony Gonzalez
8. Boston College - Steven Daniels
9. Florida State - Terrance Smith
10. Duke - David Helton
11. Wake Forest - Brandon Chubb
12. Miami - Denzel Perryman
13. NC State - Brandon Pittman
14. Virginia Tech - Deon Clarke

Well, well.  This is not the orange glasses talking here; I legitimately think UVA has the best linebackers in the conference.  Only a small handful of teams can claim they return two top-producing LBs the way UVA does, and when they do they're not the tackle monsters Coley and Romero are; those two got into way too many backfields to ignore what they do.  Clemson's Stephone Anthony is probably the best individual 'backer in the ACC, and there are some solid players up and down the list.  Even Wake gets in on the act, finally getting out of the cellar and leaving that to VT(!), where inexperience abounds.

The sudden proliferation of 4-2-5 nickel defenses in the ACC admittedly clouds up the evaluation a little bit here.  Something like five or six teams are headed that way, and that's just who's announced it; there's probably more coaches figuring they'll be in a nickel at least two-thirds of the time.  Why cover a tight end or a slot receiver with a linebacker when you can use an extra safety?  Sometimes it's as simple as renaming the Sam the Rover or something like that, but that also tends to make a smaller player out of that position, too.  At any rate, teams are not developing the linebacker depth that they used to.

Duke, by the way, lost something like six spots in this ranking when Kelby Brown was lost for the season.  David Helton is a solid player but that's a huge loss regardless.

-- Secondaries

1. Virginia Tech - Kendall Fuller
2. Wake Forest - Ryan Janvion
3. Florida State - Nate Andrews
4. Boston College - Sean Sylvia
5. Duke - Jeremy Cash
6. North Carolina - Tim Scott
7. Louisville - Terrell Floyd
8. Virginia - Anthony Harris
9. Miami - Tracy Howard
10. Syracuse - Durell Eskridge
11. NC State - Jarvis Byrd
12. Georgia Tech - Isaiah Johnson
13. Clemson - Robert Smith
14. Pittsburgh - Ray Vinopal

Finally, Wake gets their day in the sun.  That is a very impressive secondary they run, and most years it'd be the best in the conference without any doubt.  Unfortunately, VT's is even better.  You have two extremely experienced safeties and two ballhawking cornerbacks, with depth behind them to boot.  It's probably the best unit of any kind in the conference, and makes a strong case for the same on a national level.

As for UVA's ranking, Demetrious Nicholson's complete absence from the depth chart - which may or may not stretch into December - is worth a bump downwards.  More production in the form of INTs from someone like Maurice Canady would've helped.  There's depth, and a hell of a lot of intrigue with Quin Blanding lining up as a starter, but athletic abilities aside, freshman safeties have a tendency to run really fast in the wrong direction.  The conference is hardly bereft of quality defensive backs, so it's hard to justify moving us any higher for now.

Cumulative rankings

-- Atlantic offense

1. Florida State
2. Louisville
3. Syracuse
4. Clemson
5. Boston College
6. NC State
7. Wake Forest

-- Coastal offense

1. Duke
2. Pittsburgh
3. Miami
4. North Carolina
5. Virginia Tech
6. Virginia
7. Georgia Tech

-- Conference offense

1. Florida State
2. Duke
3. Louisville
4. Pittsburgh
5. Miami
6. North Carolina
7. Syracuse
8. Clemson
9. Boston College
10. NC State
11. Virginia Tech
12. Virginia
13. Georgia Tech
14. Wake Forest

I think it's a little odd that Pitt ended up with the Coastal's 2nd best offense, ranking above Miami, UNC, Clemson, etc.  You can move them down a few spots if, for example, you like Brad Kaaya better than Chad Voytik.  I'm not offended if you do, but do keep in mind Tyler Boyd as well.  Clemson is down that far primarily because there's so little proven talent at WR and RB, particularly the latter.  I already did mention that their WRs could make me look dumb, but the RBs look rather less dynamic.

-- Atlantic defense

1. Clemson
2. Florida State
3. Boston College
4. Louisville
5. Syracuse
6. NC State
7. Wake Forest

-- Coastal defense

1. Virginia
2. Virginia Tech
3. North Carolina
4. Duke
5. Miami
6. Georgia Tech
7. Pittsburgh

-- Conference defense

1. Virginia
2. Clemson
3. Florida State
4. Virginia Tech
5. Boston College
6. North Carolina
7. Louisville
8. Syracuse
9. NC State
10. Wake Forest
11. Duke
12. Miami
13. Georgia Tech
14. Pittsburgh

Call me a homer, call me what you will.  I admit that the flaw in the methodology here is that if you have one really good unit or one really bad one, you're probably gonna look better or worse than you should.  Hence Wake, whose massive defensive flaws up front won't be entirely covered up by their secondary, and VT, who can probably cover up their linebackers (and Bud Foster will probably have them crapping thunder by October anyway but whatever.)  And none of this takes into account coaching.

Still, it's UVA with the top linebackers, last year's national INT leader, depth in the secondary, a solid and improving defensive line, and two elite recruits jumping right in.  There's very little separation in the top five anyway.  Also, it's interesting that the four worst defenses are all Coastal teams - now you know why nobody can figure out who's supposed to win the damn thing.

-- Atlantic overall

1. Florida State
2. Louisville
3. Clemson
4. Syracuse
5. Boston College
6. NC State
7. Wake Forest

-- Coastal overall

1. Duke
2. North Carolina
3. Miami
4. Virginia
5. Pittsburgh
6. Virginia Tech
7. Georgia Tech

-- Conference overall

1. Florida State
2. Louisville
3. Duke
4. North Carolina
5. Clemson
6. Syracuse
7. Miami
8. Virginia
9. Pittsburgh
10. Boston College
11. Virginia Tech
12. NC State
13. Georgia Tech
14. Wake Forest

Yes, VT looks awfully odd down there on the bottom, below that crappy 2-10 team from last year.  I can't help that Texas Tech's 3rd-string QB is now their starter.  Just know that coaching matters, this doesn't take into account coaching, and if they had even middling linebackers (they probably will by October; that's where that coaching stuff comes in) they'd jump to 3rd in the division.

However, I am willing to draw the following conclusions from this:

- Louisville could unseat Clemson as FSU's primary challenger, more easily than people might think.  It's close, though.
- Duke is still pretty good, and won't be a flash in the pan.  But defense wins championships, so I've got UNC as the actual favorite in the Coastal.
- GT is primed for a huge fall.  It won't be purty.
- If Wake so much as wins four games, Dave Clawson should be COY.
- Miami is probably not as good as people think.  Not bad, but not ready for the ACC CG.

Schedule rankings

For these, I'll simply build on the above, and use the point totals - not the rankings, but the point totals, which is to say, FSU's rankings add up to 26 - to divine the toughest and easiest conference schedules.  A multiplier of 0.75 is applied to road games and 1.25 to home games.  This is just simple math.  Easiest schedules listed first.

1. Florida State
2. Duke
3. Virginia Tech
4. North Carolina
5. NC State
6. Louisville
7. Pittsburgh
8. Clemson
9. Boston College
10. Georgia Tech
11. Syracuse
12. Virginia
13. Wake Forest
14. Miami

- All the more reason not to like Miami as a contender - crossovers against Louisville and FSU.
- And all the more reason not to see Duke as a flash in the pan.
- I swear VT has incriminating pictures of people in the ACC scheduling department - look who got Wake Forest this year.
- FSU gets the easiest schedule simply because they're the only Atlantic team not to have to play FSU.

Hot seat coaches

Broken down into three groups: safe, safe-ish, and look out below.  First, the guys with job security:

Steve Addazio - BC
Frank Beamer - VT
Paul Chryst - Pitt
Dave Clawson - Wake
David Cutcliffe - Duke
Dave Doeren - NC State
Larry Fedora - UNC
Jimbo Fisher - FSU
Al Golden - Miami
Bobby Petrino - Louisville
Scott Shafer - Syracuse
Dabo Swinney - Clemson

OK, so, that's most of the conference.  Many of them (Addazio, Chryst, Clawson, Doeren, Fedora, Petrino, Shafer) are too new to be in much danger no matter what happens.  Beamer's got a few years of mediocrity cushion before the natives get too restless.  Golden steered the program through scandal and has improved every year.  Addazio got a team to a bowl game that didn't think they could buy tickets to one.  Fisher won a trophy of some kind, which should buy him a few years; ordinarily, the FSU coach just sort of occupies a perpetually warm seat just because.  Of these, Swinney is probably the closest to anything like a hot seat, but he's had plenty of success lately.

One coach resides in the land where he's probably not out the door after this year, but can't afford a bad season or the headhunters will start gearing up: Paul Johnson.  A really bad season could see him canned; he's burned through a couple DCs now, and the program has trended pretty flat, if not a bit downward.

So I think you can figure out the rest on your own.  The Syracuse newspaper wasn't wrong when they wrote that there was only one real hot-seat coach in the ACC this year.

Bowl predictions

That brings us to brass tacks.  Real reputation-on-the-line stuff.  First, the actual predicted order of finish, or, how I'd vote in a preseason media poll:

-- Atlantic

1. Florida State
2. Clemson
3. Louisville
4. Syracuse
5. Boston College
6. NC State
7. Wake Forest

-- Coastal

1. North Carolina
2. Duke
3. Virginia Tech
4. Miami
5. Pittsburgh
6. Virginia
7. Georgia Tech

Most of the deviation from the rankings above has to do with 1. schedule strength and 2. coaching.

And finally, the bowls - not forgetting that Notre Dame gets to piggyback:

Sugar Bowl: Florida State (playoff)
Orange Bowl: Clemson
ex-Citrus: Louisville
ex-Tangerine (RA): Notre Dame
ex-Tire: North Carolina
Pinstripe: Syracuse
Sun: Miami
Military: Virginia Tech
QL: NC State**
Independence: Boston College
St. Petersburg: Pittsburgh

No bowl: Virginia, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech

**This is the bowl game in Detroit.  I believe it's actually supposed to be announced Tuesday (today, that is, when you're most likely to be reading this) but the bowl has a name which I'd probably irritate my employer by saying out loud before that happens.

Coming this week: actual UVA previews!

what went right

In a 2-10 season, very little.  But we're going to try and put on a smiley face and see if there weren't a few nuggets of goodness here and there.  It's kind of a fake smiley face, mind you.

Also, as good as Brent Urban was this year, we're going to limit it to things that can be applied to next year.  That way there's no false hope.  Nope, nothing but real optimism in this post.

Kevin Parks

Parks recorded the first 1,000-yard season by a UVA back since Alvin Pearman in 2004.  This is a pretty nice individual achievement.  I'm going to break my optimism rule, though, by pointing out that it was largely due to not having to extensively share carries.  Several seasons since then, there would've been a 1,000-yard rusher if the carries had not been split, and that 2004 season almost had two such accomplishments, with Wali Lundy falling 100-and-some short.  Even the much-maligned Michael Johnson looked awfully good that year.  UVA had a powerful rushing attack in 2004.

Still.  The more-overarching point to this is that Steve Fairchild deserves a pretty good deal of credit for this.  Parks is a solid back with good vision and balance and he hits a hole pretty quick.  And, obviously, highly durable.  But he's also thoroughly unexplosive; he had just one run all season over 50 yards, and in seven of twelve games, didn't pass 20 on any one run.  This means he can't pad out his stats by being bottled up all game and then bursting through for one huge run to make the whole day look good.  In order for Parks to rack up yards, he has to do it on a lot of different plays, and he needs good blocking to do it.

And this was an offensive line that lost most of its physical battles.  So how to get an unexplosive back running behind an unproductive line to the 1,000-yard marker?  Schemes.  Fairchild's playbook deserves much of the credit for the accomplishment.  It's why when the whole fanbase is giving him an F-minus, I give Fairchild a C.  I had as much hate and discontent as anyone over things like short-side sweeps on 4th-and-2, but we have to apply Sherlock Holmes's maxim here.  When you've eliminated all else, whatever remains, however improbable must be the truth.  Parks didn't get to 1,000 yard by racing away from defenders and he didn't get there because the offensive line blew open holes for him.  What remains is Fairchild, however, unpopular a conclusion that may be.

Anthony Harris

Actually this sort of breaks another rule, the one about being able to apply this stuff to next year, because seasons like Harris's regress to the mean most of the time.  Still, you just can't knock the nation's interceptions leader.  The problem with a safety, unfortunately, is that a good one cannot make a bad defense good, but a bad one can make a good defense bad.

So the defense as a whole didn't really follow suit.  But a guy with instincts like Harris's, but with 12 extra games under his belt, ought to be a force on the field next year.

Eric Smith

Smith was a true freshman on the offensive line, which at times went about how you'd expect.  Georgia Tech was a particular case, in which Smith had to go up against Jeremiah Attaochu all day and spent the whole day eating Attaochu's cleats.  Sometimes he was just freshman-y.

Sometimes, though, he was fantastic.  Clemson's Vic Beasley finished the season with 12 sacks, but never recorded one against Smith and UVA.  Smith had a good game against VT as well, and over the course of the season, the good outweighed the bad.  UVA has a good one in Smith, who could be the left tackle for the next three years.

Linebackers

I asserted early in the season, here and on TheSabre too, that I thought Daquan Romero should be the top candidate to lead the team in tackles.  I ended up being off by two; Henry Coley nudged him out 91-89.  Both Coley and Romero showed impressive instincts this year; Romero was particularly excellent at sniffing out and blowing up screen plays.

Combined with Harris, these two will give UVA more quarterbacks on defense next year than it knows what to do with.  Their ranginess gave Jon Tenuta confidence enough to use his third linebacker spot on Max Valles, who couldn't do much more than pass rush.

Eli Harold

Not only did he pile up eight sacks, he averaged 10 yards on them.

******************************************

There are a few honorable mention names that don't really qualify as full bright spots.  David Dean piled up very nice numbers for a DT but generally needed Brent Urban next to him.  Without Urban, teams tended to smother Dean.  Hopefully next year as he becomes an upperclassman he'll be the guy opening up a lane for his neighbor.  Daniel Hamm had that one really nice game; pity he got relegated to the back of the bench anyway.  Khalek Shepherd, when healthy, was a nice change of pace back.  Urban, of course, was outstanding, and his loss probably cost UVA a win somewhere along the line.

Everything else that happened pretty much earns a D at best.  And if there's a grade lower than F-minus-minus-minus, I'll hand it out to the quarterbacks and receivers.  Can you get a Z-minus?  At least, though, a few players kept us interested.  Bravo to that.  I have every confidence this team can show the progress it needs to double its win total next year.

game preview: Clemson

Date/Time: Saturday, November 2; 3:30

TV: ESPN

Record against the Tigers: 8-37-1

Last meeting: Clem. 34, UVA 21; 11/21/09, Clemson

Last weekend: GT 35, UVA 25; Clem. 40, Md. 27

Line: Clemson by 18

Injury report:

Virginia:

OUT - OL George Adeosun, CB Maurice Canady, CB Demetrious Nicholson, TE Mario Nixon, DT Brent Urban, S Wil Wahee

DOUBTFUL - none

QUESTIONABLE - none

PROBABLE - OG Conner Davis, K Ian Frye

Clemson:

OUT - DB MacKensie Alexander, OL Patrick DeStefano, DT Kevin Dodd, RB Tyshon Dye,  LB Kellen Jones, WR Charone Peake, CB Garry Peters, DT Carlos Watkins

DOUBTFUL -

QUESTIONABLE -

PROBABLE - RB Zac Brooks

What were you doing in 1999?  I'd guess your life was a lot different back then.  Three presidential terms have come and gone since then, and then some.  According to my high school yearbook, the Sega Dreamcast came out then.  This was 14 years ago.  I bring this up because the next time Clemson visits Charlottesville will be 14 years from now: 2027.  That's when V for Vendetta takes place FFS.  This is the brave new, stupid ACC.

Of course, Clemson might be a poor example of a team we should play more often, given the sound thrashing they're about to lay on our football team.  This week will put a merciful end to the season, afte which point the team will perhaps be playing for nothing more than to save their coach's job.

-- UVA run offense vs. Clemson run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 144 carries, 614 yards, 4.3 ypc, 9 TDs
Khalek Shepherd: 38 carries, 248 yards, 6.5 ypc, 1 TD

UVA offense:
162.63 yards/game, 3.86 yards/attempt
92nd of 125 (national), 11th of 14 (ACC)

Clemson defense:
144.13 yards/game, 3.79 yards/attempt
41st of 125 (national), 7th of 14 (ACC)

The likely return of Conner Davis is a small piece of good news for a running game that proved mostly impotent against Georgia Tech.  UVA has tried a lot of combinations, but this one, with Davis at LG and Whitmire at RG, has proven to be, on balance, the best of an unpalatable array of choices.

The drawback is that Luke Bowanko's snap issues are returning.  Part of the reason he makes a better guard than center is because of his erratic shotgun snaps, which tend to be high and throw off the timing of the read-option as well as just plain regular runs out of the pistol.  When your main back is Kevin Parks, whose acceleration isn't top-level stuff, it makes everything run a tick slow, and that in turn just piles up the issues on an offensive line that has a tough time as it is with holding blocks for long enough.

Adding to the difficulties is that bane of the UVA offense, a quality defensive tackle.  For Clemson it's Grady Jarrett.  They also have a pair of excellent linebackers in Spencer Shuey and Stephone Anthony, the two leading tacklers.  Two-thirds of the way through the season and they already have 78 and 80 tackles, respectively.  I'm less impressed by SLB Quandon Christian, and I think UVA would have more success running to that side than the other.  But Clemson's defensive line is more than good enough to cover any weaknesses among the linebackers - not that there are many.

Other than an inexplicable meltdown against Syracuse and the opening game against Georgia, teams haven't been real successful running the ball against Clemson.  It's unlikely ours is the team to break that trend.  I don't think Parks will manage more than 60 yards, and the rest of the running attack will fall in place behind.

-- UVA pass offense vs. Clemson pass defense

Quarterback:
David Watford: 191/314, 60.8%; 1,715 yards, 7 TDs, 9 INTs; 5.46 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Jake McGee: 31 rec., 265 yards, 2 TDs
Kevin Parks: 29 rec., 285 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
219.9 yards/game, 5.3 yards/attempt
124th of 125 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

Clemson defense:
230.6 yards/game, 7.4 yards/attempt
81st of 125 (national), 11th of 14 (ACC)

Why is Clemson looking upwards in the Atlantic Conference race?  Because of the 444 yards they gave up to Jameis Winston.  David Watford isn't Winston and has nothing close to the surrounding talent, but this remains the weaker point of Clemson's defense.

Actually, it doesn't mean they're not dangerous, though.  Clemson's 29 sacks are tops in the country, and their 13 picks are tied for 8th.  Cornerbacks Bashaud Breeland and Darius Robinson have three picks apiece, and speed-rushing DE Vic Beasley has ten sacks.  GT's Jeremiah Attaochu abused right tackle Eric Smith, sometimes simply by juking him without ever being engaged in a block, and Smith will have his hands full again; no doubt Clemson paid attention to the film and won't bother lining up Beasley across from Morgan Moses.

Clemson, though, is also prone to allowing the big play.  They sit near the bottom of the national rankings in this regard.  That means if UVA is even going to keep this thing close(ish), Tim Smith needs to repeat his performance of last week.  Having Jake McGee back will be a big plus, but Watford needs multiple options to stretch the field or there just won't be any point to this at all.  It's Smith who has emerged as a downfield threat - not in terms of the one big lightning strike, but he can create 20, 25-yard plays.  Consistency is a problem, of course, as he's yet to really do anything two games in a row this year.

Watford is likely to have a tough time with this pass rush.  Consider it experience for the VT game.  Clemson averages more than 3.5 sacks a game, so predicting three, as I was planning on doing, starts to look pretty weak; let's say four.  I think Watford can continue to top 200 yards and the Hoos should be able to move the ball in fits and starts, but expecting a repeat of last week would be too much.

-- Clemson run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Roderick McDowell: 119 carries, 607 yards, 5.1 ypc, 2 TDs
Zac Brooks: 47 carries, 234 yards, 5.0 ypc, 2 TDs

Clemson offense:
175.88 yards/game, 3.94 yards/attempt
87th of 125 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
182.0 yards/game, 4.56 yards/attempt
84th of 125 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)

Tailback Roderick McDowell is a decent back, but let's face it, even as the starter he's essentially Tajh Boyd's change of pace.   A great deal of the Clemson run game is the read-option run between Boyd and McDowell, and Boyd has 72 carries for 334 yards once you take away sacks.

In that sense it's a good deal for us that the defense has been seeing the read-option in practice.  The basics of defending it are to do one of two things: have your defensive tackle kick some ass while the DE pops out to take the QB (but there's no Urban) or crash the DE to take the RB and "scrape" the linebacker outside.  I have, however, no idea what Jon Tenuta is doing with linebackers these days, given the strange appearance of this week's depth chart.

One thing seems sure: Max Valles as anything other than a situational pass-rusher seems like a bad idea.  Valles is inexperienced and it showed badly against GT; against the read-option I'd rather stick with the experienced and trustworthy Romero and Coley.  And if Tenuta blitzes up the middle, that's great except that Boyd will probably just keep and head outside for a big gain.

Clemson will get their yards here; they've been pretty successful all season without being spectacular.  Steady is the word, as the run game gets its share of room just from teams hanging back, understandably scared of the pass.  I'm not too worried about there being a big play here, but there's no reason the Tigers shouldn't just continue to be able to do what they do, which is pick up five yards whenever they want to.

-- Clemson pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Tajh Boyd: 168/263, 63.9%; 2,243 yards, 17 TDs, 5 INTs; 8.53 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Sammy Watkins: 58 rec., 813 yards, 5 TDs
Adam Humphries: 30 rec., 368 yards, 2 TDs

Clemson offense:
319.6 yards/game, 8.1 yards/attempt
36th of 125 (national), 7th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
211.8 yards/game, 6.6 yards/attempt
39th of 125 (national), 7th of 14 (ACC)

No Nicholson, no Canady, going against Sammy Watkins and Tajh Boyd.  There's no need to overthink this.

-- Favorability ratings

UVA run offense: 2.5
UVA pass offense: 3.5
UVA run defense: 3.5
UVA pass defense: 1

Average: 2.63

-- Outlook

For the cliff notes, just reread the pass defense segment.  I cannot think of a single reason this should go well.  It's possible to look at UVA and see a team scrapping for a win and continuing to improve but tragically coming up short each time.  It's also possible to see a reeling, injury-riddled, often undisciplined team with unsolvable weaknesses, going up against a legitimate top-ten team in the country.  The improvement might just result in one win, maybe against Carolina or VT's putrid offense.  For now, Tivo will come in handy should I want to see any play in particular; I'll be watching Michigan-MSU.

-- Prediction summary

-- Kevin Parks fails to reach 60 yards on the ground.

-- David Watford passes for over 200 yards.

-- Watford is sacked at least four times.

-- Sammy Watkins needs 187 yards to reach 1,000 for the season.  He'll get them all Saturday.

Final score: Clemson 51, UVA 17

-- Rest of the ACC

Virginia Tech @ Boston College - 12:00 - Any team that plays a decently disciplined defense against VT is an upset risk - and BC does.

North Carolina @ NC State - 12:30 - UNC is 2-5, and could easily finish the regular season 7-5.

Wake Forest @ Syracuse - 12:30 - A likely Bowl Eligibility Bowl in the Atlantic.

Pittsburgh @ Georgia Tech - 7:00 - GT can clinch a postseason trip.

Miami @ Florida State - 8:00 - Possible preview of the ACCCG.

Byes: Maryland, Duke

game preview: Pittsburgh

Date/Time: Saturday, September 28; 12:30

TV: RSN, ESPN3

Record against the Panthers: 2-3

Last meeting: UVA 44, Pitt 14; 9/29/07, Charlottesville

Last weekend: UVA 49, VMI 0; Pitt 58, Duke 55

Line: Pitt by 5

Injury report:

Virginia

OUT - G George Adeosun, G Conner Davis, G Jack McDonald, TE Mario Nixon, TE Zach Swanson, SS Wilfred Wahee

DOUBTFUL - None

QUESTIONABLE - RB Taquan Mizzell

PROBABLE - WR Miles Gooch, RB Khalek Shepherd

Pittsburgh
OUT - DB Cullen Christian, DE Devin Cook, OL Gabe Roberts

DOUBTFUL - DE Bryan Murphy

QUESTIONABLE - LB Shane Gordon

PROBABLE - None

Time to get the ACC schedule underway.  It's Pitt's first season in the conference, but the opponent isn't totally unfamiliar; these teams have met three times in the past decade or so.  Matt Schaub led the Hoos to a win in what remains the only UVA bowl game I've seen in person, and UVA and Pitt played a home-and-home a few years later in which the teams traded crowd-pleasing blowouts.  This promises to be an interesting series in years to come, since both teams would love to establish a strong presence on each others' home recruiting turf.  For this season, though, it's two teams that could make a bowl game but face an uphill battle to do so - the winner will be halfway to their goal.

-- UVA run offense vs. Pitt run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 56 carries, 260 yards, 4.6 ypc, 3 TD
Daniel Hamm: 21 carries, 136 yards, 6.5 ypc, 2 TD

UVA offense:
196.67 yards/game, 4.10 yards/attempt
82nd of 125 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)

Pitt defense:
194 yards/game, 4.77 yards/attempt
94th of 125 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)

One thing I totally failed to notice from last week's game is that Cody Wallace made the start at RG in place of Conner Davis, who is - we learn this week - injured.  Other than explaining why Eric Tetlow got in the game, it might also be among the reasons why the line struggled early to push VMI off the line.

UVA can afford no such problems in the interior this week, and Wallace is going to have to play the game of his life.  With the twin terrors that Pitt has at defensive tackle - Aaron Donald already has seven TFL in just three games, and Tyrone Ezell is a beast of a nose tackle - it's likely UVA will struggle in the middle all day long.

Despite that, Pitt has struggled to defend the run.  Even against New Mexico they had problems; UNM's top two running backs, Crusoe Gongbay and Cole Gautsch, combined for 20 carries and 145 yards.  A pretty good day on the ground for a team that lost by three touchdowns.  Duke's Brandon Connette and Josh Snead carried 29 times for 160 yards.  Pitt has simply been unsuccessful stopping the run this year.

It won't help if they don't have their defensive ends.  Two of their better ones - Bryan Murphy and Devin Cook - look as though they'll miss the game, and linebacker Shane Gordon, leading his unit in tackles, is also questionable (and judging from posts on the Pitt boards, probably less than questionable).  It's obvious that the place to attack the Pitt defense will be on the edges.  Follow Morgan Moses; he ought to be able to easily handle the Pitt defensive ends.  If Zach Swanson wasn't missing the game I'd feel even more confident about the edges; Swanson is probably the best blocking tight end we have right now.

The question is going to be: who carries the ball?  Parks, of course, will be asked to carry the load, but will the coaches turn back to Hamm?  I'd like to see what happens - Hamm's very aggressive style could pay off in a matchup like this.  If Pitt had really good, heady linebackers it'd be different, because there's no deception in his game and a guy like Steve Greer would find it easy to diagnose.  But linebacking is the weak point in the Pitt defense, and Hamm's desire to get upfield quickly on a run to the edges would help neutralize the Pitt defensive tackles, giving them less time to disengage and chase him down.  Tippytoe runs while the back waits for a hole he likes will get our guys run down from behind.  Not that Shepherd is especially prone to that - but more so than Hamm, yes.

I think if the right game is called, UVA will succeed in the run game.  They'll have a really hard time punching it up the gut, but should find room on the edges.  The depth chart has Hamm fourth, but I do think the coaches plan to use him again.  And I think he'll outgain Shepherd.  Hopefully that's not a case of me predicting what I want to happen, because I'd love to see Hamm be the pleasant surprise of the season, not just the VMI game.

-- UVA pass offense vs. Pitt pass defense

Quarterback:
David Watford: 65/98, 66.3%; 481 yards, 3 TDs, 6 INTs; 4.91 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Jake McGee: 14 rec., 81 yards, 1 TD
Darius Jennings: 12 rec., 77 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
170.3 yards/game, 4.7 yards/attempt
123rd of 125 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

Pitt defense:
251 yards/game, 9.5 yards/attempt
119th of 125 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

Pillow fight!  The ACC's worst pass offense goes against its worst pass defense.  Or so it looks.  Actually I think the Panthers' pass defense will look better as the season goes on; it so happens that Duke and Florida State have passing games that will test any defense, and Pitt does have the ability to shut down lousy passing offenses, as they did to New Mexico.

A game against VMI doesn't tell you much, but it does give you this: there are certain things that if you don't see them against VMI, you never will.  An explosive passing offense is one of them.  David Watford simply needs experience before the passing game can consistently diversify its efforts.  Til then, this element of the game will be one where we just hope for good enough.

As for the opponent, the main concerns are Pitt's two defensive stars, Aaron Donald and Jason Hendricks.  Donald has four sacks this season and is basically Pitt's only pass rush - he'll be double- and maybe triple-teamed all day, and is the guy who our running backs (Parks, mainly, as the only experienced one) will need to keep their eye on in blocking.  Hendricks is a safety and a good one.

Otherwise, Pitt isn't too scary.  I don't think Watford will face much of a rush except up the middle, and Jameis Winston of FSU was able to have some scrambling success so hopefully Watford can do the same.  Pitt's corners got torched by Duke's receivers so ours should be able to find some room too..  Watford should be able to further improve his yards-per-attempt, but don't expect anything spectacular.  Because of the pressure up the middle but the likely lack thereof on the edges, I also think he'll find a way to scramble and maybe contribute three yards a carry to the run game.  If Fairchild calls some rollouts and bootlegs (which he hasn't yet, but hey) that could play right toward our possible strengths.

-- Pitt run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
James Conner: 47 carries, 326 yards, 6.9 ypc, 3 TDs
Isaac Bennett: 35 carries, 174 yards, 5.0 ypc, 2 TDs

Pitt offense:
184.33 yards/game, 5.17 yards/attempt
36th of 125 (national), 4th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
192.67 yards/game, 4.90 yards/attempt
103rd of 125 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

Still too early in the season for you to let these numbers cause you any panic.  New Mexico is awful, for one, and Duke sucks on defense too; Oregon is still messing up our own stats.  Nevertheless, Pitt's running game has shown some signs of life that folks didn't expect when Rushel Shell left the team.

Freshman RB James Conner has been the star for the Panthers, having big games against both UNM and Duke but being largely bottled up by FSU.  Isaac Bennett, other than a pretty good UNM game, doesn't really look like a tremendously improved back over last year.  Conner is the guy the Panthers are going to lean on; he's a big, powerful back at 6'2", 230 and will be a load to bring down.

The Pitt O-line took a hit in losing center Gabe Roberts for the game, though its a depth thing rather than losing a starter, as Artie Rowell had beaten him out for the starting job.  Pitt's interior line is respectable but not overpowering; it's a fairly even matchup in the trenches.

That the Hoos have placed Max Valles atop the depth chart at linebacker, though, is a vote of confidence in the front seven, or really, front six in the run game since Valles is there to rush the passer.  Daquan Romero and Henry Coley have done nice work, and I think you have to be impressed by the tackle totals along the defensive line (although admittedly somewhat inflated by VMI's horrible O-line.)  I think UVA will likely be able to make Bennett a non-factor, and Conner should find much less running room than he's been used to the past two games.

-- Pitt pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Tom Savage: 51/78, 65.4%; 861 yards, 9 TDs, 4 INTs; 11.04 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Devin Street: 17 rec., 387 yards, 2 TDs
Tyler Boyd: 16 rec., 314 yards, 4 TDs

Pitt offense:
289.7 yards/game, 11.0 yards/attempt
7th of 125 (national), 2nd of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
140.0 yards/game, 4.2 yards/attempt
2nd of 125 (national), 1st of 14 (ACC)

The contrast between this and the passing matchup on the other side of the field is almost comical.  Pitt's Tom Savage absolutely bombed Duke, racking up 424 passing yards and six TDs in just that one game.  I said before the season Pitt could be dangerous if they found a complement to Devin Street, and freshman Tyler Boyd is it.  Both of them have big-play ability and will be one of the season's biggest tests for our secondary, high praise considering we have to face Stefon Diggs and Sammy Watkins later on.

That said, Savage has a few obstacles of his own.  UVA has a whopping 23 pass breakups, a number that is not terribly inflated by the VMI game.  The Hoos have allowed 37 completions, so an enemy pass is almost as likely to be ruthlessly swatted to the ground as to be completed.  Brent Urban leads the team - and defensive linemen nationwide - with five breakups, and Demetrious Nicholson and Maurice Canady each have four.

The pass rush is still a question mark, though; most of our sacks came against VMI, so Eli Harold and the rest of the pass-rushing gang still has something to prove.  Jon Tenuta will use Max Valles as a pass-rusher to try and boost the pressure on Savage, who is the pocket-statue sort of quarterback, and an NFL-friendly 6'5", which could help to nullify the D-line's pass-swatting talents.

The entire game, in the end, may swing on how well the defense is able to slow down Street and Boyd.  I would say that if neither reaches 100 yards receiving, UVA has won the game.  UVA doesn't need to sack Savage for the pressure to work; Pitt is not a quick-hit offense so if they can simply keep Savage uncomfortable, they can disrupt the show.

-- Favorability ratings

UVA run offense: 4.5
UVA pass offense: 4
UVA run defense: 6
UVA pass defense: 5.5

Average: 5

-- Outlook

Simply put, this is one of the most intriguing matchups of the year.  Both teams have some pretty deep flaws.  We have a questionable offensive line going up against a wrecking ball of a defensive tackle and a quarterback whose decision-making has been questionable.  Pitt's defensive end lineup is a nuclear disaster, and their defense overall is a problem.  Both teams have their strengths: Pitt's DTs and pass offense, our pass defense.  I can't see Pitt winning this game if UVA is able to bottle up the Pitt receiving tandem, and UVA is dead in the water if they can't run the ball and loosen up Pitt's already-shaky pass defense.  This game just comes down to who can cover up their flaws the best.

-- Predictions

-- Daniel Hamm outgains Khalek Shepherd.

-- Watford manages about six yards per pass.

-- Watford also contributes at least 30 yards on the ground.

-- Aaron Donald and Eli Harold are the only players on either team to register a sack.

-- UVA is able to keep Pitt's running game in check, with no more than four yards a carry.

-- If both Tyler Boyd and Devin Street have fewer than 100 receiving yards apiece, UVA wins.

Final score: UVA 27, Pitt 23

Rest of the ACC:

Virginia Tech 17, Georgia Tech 10 - Thu. - Despite crushing adversity brought on by unconscionable and totally indefensible scheduling screwjobs, the Hokies overcame the terrible obstacles and stood tall in victory with a heroic, stirring, against-all-odds victory.

Miami @ South Florida - 12:00 - USF's giant-killing days are dead, so the Canes won't have much trouble here.  Back to the big three in Florida.

North Carolina vs. East Carolina - 12:30 - Sadly, the Heels don't play Western Carolina to complete the trifecta.

Duke vs. Troy - 3:00 - Really stupid fun fact: There are lots of teams whose common name is only four letters long (Utah, Iowa, Navy, etc.) but these are two of the only three whose names are just one syllable.  Guess the other one and win no prize at all.

Florida State @ Boston College - 3:30 - Truthfully, the schedule-makers were worse to BC than to VT this week, making them play FSU the week after playing USC.

NC State vs. Central Michigan - 3:30 - MAC snack.

Wake Forest @ Clemson - 3:30 - Wake cake.

Bye - Maryland

(Answer: Rice.)