game preview: Boston College

Date/Time: Thursday, January 26; 9:00

TV: ESPNUVA

Record against the Eagles: 7-6

Last matchup: BC 63, UVA 44; 2/26/11; Charlottesville

Last game: VT 47, UVA 45 (1/22); Wake 71, BC 56 (1/21)

Opposing blogs: BC Interruption

KenPom breakdown:

Tempo:
UVA: 60.2 (#339)
BC: 66.3 (#199)

Offense:
UVA: 104.8 (#95)
BC: 91.8 (#292)

Defense:
UVA: 84.1 (#4)
BC: 101.4 (#185)

Pythagorean win%:
UVA: .9046 (#16)
BC: .2655 (#262)

Common opponents:

Virginia Tech: UVA lost, 47-45; BC won, 61-59

Projected starting lineups:

Virginia:

PG: Jontel Evans (5.9 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 3.5 apg)
SG: Sammy Zeglinski (9.0 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 2.6 apg)
SF: Joe Harris (12.5 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.6 apg)
PF: Mike Scott (16.6 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 1.6 apg)
F: Akil Mitchell (3.4 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 0.7 apg)

Boston College:

PG: Jordan Daniels (5.8 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 2.3 apg)
SG: Matt Humphrey (9.6 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.3 apg)
G: Lonnie Jackson (7.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1.6 apg)
F: Ryan Anderson (9.6 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 1.0 apg)
C: Dennis Clifford (9.8 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 1.1 apg)

Another stretch begins today of many games in little time, and this one's an even crunchier stretch with a game tonight, Saturday evening, and then Tuesday evening.  Three in six days.  A fine time to be missing our center with a broken foot, and, potentially, our #2 scorer with the flu.

Hopefully, BC is the cure to what ails ya.  One of the worst BCS-conference basketball teams in the whole country visits the JPJA tonight, so despite the depth issues and the injuries and all, UVA has to get a win - an easy one - or else face a bottomless well of doubts about the season's direction.  Right now the Hoos are getting a favorable narrative from the media - despite an ugly loss on Sunday, the line about UVA in Yahoo's bracketology is one about how our losses are only by a combined eight points.  UVA might not be in any bracket projections if they can't shake the shooting problems from Sunday and dispatch a terrible team with prejudice.

-- UVA on offense

Usually when I'm trying to find out how to beat a team, one thing I typically do is check out their losses and see if there's a pattern in how other teams did it.  With BC it's the other way around: how on earth did anyone lose to them?  The answer generally lies in their defense.  BC's offense would be below-average in at least 30 of 34 conferences, but their defense - while not ACC-level - has its moments.

BC will have the luxury, at least at first, of attempting to guard Mike Scott with one guy, because Assane Sene's absence means 7-footer Dennis Clifford can shadow Scott.  Scott's favorite move, the Sheed Wallace turnaround jumped, probably won't make it to the basket against a seven-foot defender, so we'll have to hope Scott can bang him around in the post.

On the perimeter, however, BC can be worked on.  Actually, their three-point defense is just to the good side of average, but it's the steals - or complete lack thereof - that I like.  They hardly get any.  Georgia Tech was another team I pointed this out about, and it played into our hands nicely as the Hoos only had eight turnovers.  BC is even worse, ranking 324th in the country at steals percentage.  Point guard Jordan Daniels is a midget at 5'8", 153, a good sign as our point guards typically are bothered more by size than by quickness.  This'd be a good game to give Malcolm Brogdon minutes at the point and force one of BC's bigger guards to defend him out there; in fact if I were Bennett I'd start the game that way just to mess with Steve Donahue and see what he does to counter.

Big-picture-wise, BC's defense has actually been improving (somewhat), so it'd be a mistake to judge it by the early-season games.  In ACC play they've allowed just fewer than a point a possession, which is actually better than their performance early on against the likes of Holy Cross and Rhode Island.  (Of course, the Hokies didn't have Erick Green when they played BC.)  Donahue likes to mix a little zone defense in now and again, even including a 1-3-1 sometimes.  Given the way UVA has been shooting threes of late, I wouldn't be surprised to see an early dose of the 2-3, to force the Hoos to find their range.

-- UVA on defense

Freshmen are stuffed into every nook and corner of the BC basketball program, and Donahue needed years at Cornell before his offense caught on and started really producing, so it's little wonder that the Eagles are so bad at it.  Not one player has a double-digit scoring average; not one player has an O-rating of over 100.  (Though the former is slightly unfair, as there are four players less than half a point away from 10.)

The most dangerous player will probably be Dennis Clifford.  I would say Lonnie Jackson, because he's got the team's best O-rating at 98.2 and is the only consistent three-point shooter, but Clifford presents a matchup problem because he's seven feet and heavily involved in the offense, and of course, no Sene.

Still, this end of the floor is major strength against major weakness.  Whether by design, incompetence, or both, BC is a terrible offensive rebounding team, and you know by now that the Hoos are an elite one on the defensive glass.  BC's offensive rebounding is just 23%, which ranks 342nd of 345 D-I teams.  (Even Tony Bennett's get-the-hell-away-from-the-rebound-and-play-some-damn-defense style has resulted in a slightly better than average rebounding percentage on offense.)  Not only that, but I look forward to unleashing Jontel Evans.  The Eagles have two options at point guard: the aforementioned midget, or Gabe Moton and his astronomical 30% turnover rate.  Evans is bigger than Daniels (who is a freshman besides) and probably just as quick, and he should be able to harass either one of these guys til they hop the train to Turnover City.

BC's well-roundedness is a strength, but if everything is playing out as it should, UVA has a comfort level and plenty of experience in playing a truly nasty, odious defense to try and score on.  That bodes very ill for an extremely green, freshman-laden team trying to run a complex offense on the road.  The 1-2 record in the last three games might be worrisome, but keep in mind the defense hasn't been the issue at all.

-- Outlook

One slot behind Boston College in KenPom's rankings, you'll find High Point.  One slot above: Pepperdine.  I would tell you who's just below BC in the Sagarin list, but you'll start having bad flashbacks and I don't want you to get your heart rate up.  (Hint: they're on the West Coast.)  In other words, theoretically this game should be easier than a lot of our nonconference ones.

It's a bad state of affairs in the ACC when that's true, but then again, funny things happen in the ACC.  But then, remember what I wrote earlier about defense: it's much less susceptible to inconsistency than offense.  This should be a good back-on-track kind of game, and hopefully after one win streak failed to launch, the second try will be a go.

-- Final score: UVA 63, BC 43

the home court rims are supposed to be bigger

I would like to begin this week's posting efforts by pointing out that when I write game predictions, I don't take into account the possibility of the rim actively working to block our shots.  I'm sure I've never seen a game in which so many layups, free throws, and jump shots rimmed in and out of the basket.  Layups!  All Akil Mitchell had to do was drop the ball in the rim!

The too-obvious assertion was that we missed Assane Sene's defense, sitting out the first of six weeks' worth of games with a broken ankle.  I can think of a time or two when VT scorers took the ball unabated to the rack, and Sene might've had a thing or two to say about that, sure, but the fact is: 47 points!  Tech was held to about .85 points per possession, which is right in line with the season average.  We might've missed Sene's offense. 

Despite having too many turnovers, including one by Joe Harris that looked like something out of a certain Miami game last year, I can't be too upset with the execution.  It's just frustrating as hell to watch layups circle around the inside of the rim and circle right back out.  12 turnovers are too many, but even a below-average shooting night would've offered a comfortable win.

I'm often critical of Seth Greenberg's coaching, but you have to give Fester credit for a few things last night.  Once he figured out he could take away Mike Scott because he didn't care if Jontel Evans was shooting, that's exactly what he did.  VT normally plays a more aggressive defense on the perimeter, because they think they have better athletes than you and they want to force you into turnovers and turn them into transition buckets.  Instead it looked like playing basketball in the mirror, with the interior denied.  Shit, if you're gonna shoot 1-for-14 from three-point range, teams will be happy to watch you do it.

That was so bad I don't even wanna talk about the GT game any more.  It's like that happened in October.  That's how quickly you go from "on a roll" to "oh man, I know Boston College is terrible and we really should win, but actually we have to otherwise everyone will be legitimately questioning this team's ability to do anything right."  In other words, don't lose to Boston College.

Unfortunately, thanks to the two Christmastime transfer, this is the team we got and there's no other options.  If Sammy Zeglinski happens to be struggling with his shot, which wouldn't you know it he is, the number of people we can turn to are awfully limited.  With Sene hurt and the bottom of the net suddenly requiring a treasure map to find, we sure could use another big man and another shooter, the latter if for no other reason than to see if he's got a shot on a night when nobody else seems to.  Big man and a shooter, where can we find.... oh dammit, they left.

At any rate, no need to panic.  Vent, yes, don't panic.  I mean, how many other teams can play offense like that, shoot 1-for-14 from three and 32% overall, and lose by two?  Only if you play nice defense.  As big of a pisser as that game was, it teaches this lesson: that's why Tony Bennett emphasizes defense the way he does.  Because you can go into shooting slumps, but there's essentially no such thing as a defensive slump.  On defense, you are what you are and it's unlikely you'll see any inconsistency from game to game.  Which means you can always fall back on that while you work on that offense.  Which combined with the fact that Selection Sunday is seven weeks away, is encouraging.

*************************************

I went back and forth and back and forth again on whether or not to make any mention at all of Joe Paterno's untimely passing.  I don't really dig on politicking and philosophizing here on what should be a sports-only escape.  Obviously I have decided to do so this time.  If the death of any 85-year-old can be considered untimely, that would be it.  Not even half a year ago (not even a third of a year ago) they were interviewing him weekly wondering when he'd be back on the field and not in the coaching box, as if that was the most important question that could possibly answered in all of football.  His health went downhill like that, and it's not surprising - even Paterno himself was afraid that he'd be one of those guys who immersed himself in his job and literally couldn't survive without it.  His fears came true.  Yes, he was getting treatment, but I don't think he actually fought his lung cancer one iota.

Thanks to a certain former defensive coordinator of his, we are not having the lionization ceremonies we expected we would on this occasion.  Opinions range from "Paterno was still a great man" to "Paterno enabled and permitted children to raped, fuck him."  As best I can tell, the general narrative and opinion lands about three-quarters of the way to the "great man" side; this is healthy.  There are two things that can be said about Paterno's life right now, both of which are true:

- He affected more people in a positive way than almost anybody in this country.
- He did less than he could've and (in hindsight) should've to stop a serial child rapist.

It is not right to forget either.  It is especially wrong to forget the former.  In fact, it is dangerous to do so.

If you remove the good from Paterno's life and call him evil because he allowed the perpetuation of evil, then the lesson is this: evil things are done by evil people.  But people aren't black and white like that.  And to make things more complicated, nobody (except people with warped minds) sees themselves as evil.  Good Lord, even Jerry Sandusky doesn't.  And because we think we are generally good people, we associate ourselves with others who we think are good people.

So if you remove the good from Paterno's life, because a thing that bad be can't be done or tolerated by someone good, then he's an evil person.  But if you do that, you cloud your eyes - just like Joe Paterno clouded his.  Jerry Sandusky, why, he's this good guy I've known all my life who works his tail off and does all these charitable things and is loyally devoted to his wife and family.  To forcibly ignore all the good things Paterno did - well, in a way, that's how Sandusky was let off the hook time and again.  Because in the end Paterno couldn't see, even through Coke-bottle glasses, how good and evil could exist in one person simultaneously.  Because he believed that evil things are done by evil people - not the good ones that he knows. 

Human nature doesn't want to let us believe otherwise; that's why it's considered strong and courageous to blow the whistle.  We get a nasty case of cognitive dissonance, which makes it easier to allow ourselves to let JoePa's legacy be one or the other.  But his legacy is most valuable to us as an unadulterated whole.  "It can't happen to me, because I would or wouldn't do X" is a dangerous thought; if it can happen to Joe Paterno, who can't it happen to?

game preview: Virginia Tech

Date/Time: Sunday, January 22; 6:00

TV: ESPNUVA

Record against the Hokies: 81-52

Last matchup: UVA 61, VT 54; 2/19/11; Charlottesville

Last game: UVA 70, GT 38 (1/19); UNC 82, VT 68 (1/19)

Opposing blogs: Gobbler Country, The Key Play

KenPom breakdown:

Tempo:
UVA: 60.4 (#338)
VT: 64.3 (#280)

Offense:
UVA: 106.7 (#77)
VT: 107.6 (#62)

Defense:
UVA: 84.1 (#4)
VT: 94.0 (#62)

Pythagorean win%:
UVA: .9198 (#13)
VT: .8004 (#56)

Common opponents: none

Projected starting lineups:

Virginia:

PG: Jontel Evans (5.6 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 3.7 apg)
SG: Sammy Zeglinski (9.3 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 2.7 apg)
SF: Joe Harris (12.6 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 1.6 apg)
PF: Mike Scott (16.9 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 1.6 apg)
C: Assane Sene (4.9 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 0.4 apg)

Virginia Tech:

PG: Erick Green (16.1 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 3.3 apg)
SG: Dorenzo Hudson (11.7 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 1.7 apg)
SF: Jarell Eddie (9.8 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 1.1 apg)
F: Dorian Finney-Smith (6.5 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 2.3 apg)
PF: Victor Davila (6.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 0.5 apg)

That was fun.  I don't really enjoy beating up on Georgia Tech specifically, but any time you get an ACC game that looks like Somalia State, you have to enjoy it.  I can't remember UVA beating an ACC team like that, ever.  Some old-timer who used to be a brontosaurus hunter back in the day can probably tell us a story about the time Ralph Sampson did something or other, but semi-recent history has nothing quite like that.

So UVA is now "on a roll" and hoping to keep it that way on Sunday when the other Tech shows up.  The only negative from the GT game was Assane Sene rolling his ankle and spending the second half in warmups.  Whether he'll play on Sunday probably won't be known til someone strolls out to take the opening tip, but if he's going to miss time, this is the place to do it - VT doesn't use a center and the next opponent, Boston College, is Boston College.

-- UVA on offense

The 38 points scored by GT got all the attention, but what shouldn't be overlooked is that UVA scored almost 1.2 points per possession - on the road.  It was the fourth-best performance of the year in that regard, and far and away the best opponent we've inflicted it on - the only three games that topped it were Winthrop, Seattle, and Longwood.

If Sene plays, he could be a weapon in this game, as Tech's starting lineup features nobody over 6'8".  They simply do not have a center.  If Victor Davila, the largest man in the Tech starting lineup, is assigned to Sene, then that probably leaves Jarell Eddie or Dorian Finney-Smith - both athletic but kind of skinny - to try their hand at guarding Mike Scott.  Or does Davila, a better defender in general, take Scott?  Either way, UVA will have a very exploitable matchup advantage in the frontcourt.  Tech may try out 6'9" Cadarian Raines in the starting lineup instead.  IF Sene is healthy enough to play.

If not, you'll probably see Akil Mitchell take his place in the starting lineup, and UVA will still be bigger than Tech, but otherwise rather similarly put-together.  It doesn't negate the problem of trying to decide whether to defend Scott with someone who's either slower or much less powerful.

This is a matchup of two teams that defend the three-pointer at a nationally awesome level.  Specifically, UVA is 2nd and VT is 4th in the country at defending threes.  And we haven't been shooting them too well lately, so long-distance opportunities will be tough to come by.  Tech is simply athletic enough at all positions to consistently shut down opponent three-pointers, and Finney-Smith is long-armed dude.  It's likely that Joe Harris will be his assignment, and that's a tough deal for Joey Hoops, because his game is based on being just quick enough to get past bigger players guarding him and tall enough to hit threes over guards.  Finney-Smith out-athletes Harris by a ton and presents a tough barrier to try and shoot over.

No, the way to attack the Hokies is inside-out.  Mike Scott is a guy that few teams in the ACC are prepared to deal with, VT among the least of all.  And you know they'll foul.  Tech is undisciplined and it shows in their foul totals, as by the end of the game, at least one of their bigs is always in foul trouble.  Against Wake, it was Eddie; Raines fouled out of the FSU game, and Finney-Smith from the UNC game.  Against BC, guard Marquis Rankin fouled out, and no fewer than three other players finished with four.  This despite the relatively slow pace that VT employs.  Not only do they foul, they might be the one team against whom we look to crash the offensive boards.  Tony Bennett emphasizes getting back on defense over the offensive glass, of course, but Tech is so bad at defensive rebounding we might end up with a bunch of boards on this end just by accident.  UNC actually outrebounded them in this area, with more offensive boards than Tech had defensive.  That is hard to do.  Against ACC competition, VT has been allowing opponents 40% of their offensive boards.  By working the ball inside and letting Mike Scott be Mike Scott, putback opportunities should be there for the taking. UVA should look to pound, pound, pound inside, take advantage of the inevitable fouls, and get our threes, to employ a galactically overused phrase, the old-fashioned way.

EDIT - so much for the seven-foot mismatch, as Sene will be out six weeks (GGGGGRRRHHHGGGRHRHRHR) with a broken ankle.  "Virginia" is ancient Latin for "we can't ever have nice things around here."

-- UVA on defense

Let me go off-topic for a second.  Here is a short list of teams for you to peruse:

Holy Cross
Massachusetts
Boston University

What do these teams have in common, besides being bad at basketball?  They all beat Boston College by at least 14 points.  In the case of Holy Cross, which plays in the Patriot League, it was a 22-point beatdown.  You don't want to know the UMass score if you like the ACC.  And this is to say nothing of the double-OT loss to 3-16 Rhode Island.

And to illustrate just how important Erick Green is to the VT offense, the Hokies lost to BC without him.

Green is simply an excellent, highly efficient player.  KenPom gives him an offensive rating of 120.9.  He's got a shooting percentage of .484, 40% from three-land, a solid A/T ratio, and a FT% of .885.  He can hurt you a lot of ways.  Jarell Eddie is even better from downtown; this season, he's over 50% in that regard.  Those two, plus Dorenzo Hudson, are guys you just don't want to send to the line, either, because they're nigh-automatic.

Unfortunately for Tech, a lot of their offensive efficiency gets eaten up by Hudson, a brute-force volume-scorer who shoots a ton of threes and hits only 27% of them.  Hudson actually came off the bench for the first time this season against Carolina, in favor of freshman Robert Brown, but Brown isn't much of an improvement.  He and fellow freshman Finney-Smith are combining to make only 35% of their shots.

Part of the reason Tech is so maddeningly (to their fans - or enjoyably to us) streaky is that they like to bomb from three; any one of five players is liable to give it a try.  Only Eddie and Green are much good at it.  Outside of transition, their other preferred scoring method is to slash at the hoop and either beat you with athleticism, or draw a foul, or both.  The top four scorers are all guard-types (with Eddie being listed as "G/F"); the bigs like Raines and Davila are well down the list.

Not to be forgotten is Finney-Smith - he "looks lost" on offense, to quote Gobbler Country, and appears to be hitting a freshman wall of sorts, but what he can definitely do is crash the offensive boards.  Nobody else is really noteworthy in this regard one way or the other, but Finney-Smith's nose for the ball is an asset.  He has pulled in 11.2% of available boards on offense alone, and is by far VT's leading rebounder overall.  UVA, of course, is one of the best rebounding teams in the nation - third-best at defensive rebounding after the GT game, in fact - but Finney-Smith will be a challenge.

-- Outlook

On paper, VT looks like a team that can really hurt you.  Despite losses to two horrible ACC teams and an 0-4 start in the conference, their KenPom numbers still look decent.  They have viable scorers and play perfectly acceptable defense.  On paper.

But they play the games on a court made of hardwood, and Tech's season is on the brink at the moment.  No tournament bid is likely coming, and they're teetering on the edge of blowing even any shot at the NIT.  They were looking good against UNC, taking a 44-36 lead, and then UNC remembered how to play basketball and blew them out.  Tech plays an undisciplined, freelancing style, good at out-athleting inferior teams but generally unable to break down a determined, patient effort or a really well-executed system.  And what looked like a challenger for non-Tobacco Road supremacy in the ACC is now staring over a ledge and wondering where the bottom is; Tech fans are wondering about an 0-7 start, and even 0-9 is not implausible.  The arena will be sold out and loud, and UVA is a confident bunch.  This is no time to slow our roll, and I don't think the Hokies will be able to.

-- Final score: UVA 68, VT 56

game preview: Georgia Tech

Date/Time: Thursday, January 19; 8:00

TV: ACC Network, ESPN3

History against the Jackets: 33-38

Last matchup: UVA 62, GT 56; 2/23/11; Atlanta

Last game: Duke 61, UVA 58 (1/12); Md. 61, GT 50 (1/15)

Opposing blogs: From The Rumble Seat

KenPom breakdown:

Tempo:
UVA: 60.5 (#338)
GT: 66.2 (#211)

Offense:
UVA: 105.0 (#99)
GT: 100.3 (#178)

Defense:
UVA: 85.9 (#6)
GT: 94.0 (#65)

Pythagorean win%:
UVA: .8875 (#25)
GT: .6618 (#113)

(Explanation of KenPom stats: "Tempo" number is number of offensive possessions per game. "Offense" and "Defense" numbers are points scored/allowed per 100 possessions. All numbers are adjusted, using the magic KenPom formula; therefore they are not actual, but projections of predicted results against an average team on a neutral court.)

Common opponents:

LSU - UVA won 57-52 (A); GT lost 59-50 (N)
Duke - UVA lost 61-58 (A); GT lost 81-74 (H)
Projected starting lineups:

Virginia:

PG: Jontel Evans (5.6 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 3.6 apg)
SG: Sammy Zeglinski (9.2 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.9 apg)
SF: Joe Harris (12.4 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.6 apg)
PF: Mike Scott (16.9 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 1.6 apg)
C: Assane Sene (5.1 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 0.4 apg)

Georgia Tech:

PG: Mfon Udofia (10.8 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.5 apg)
SG: Brandon Reed (7.8 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 1.2 apg)
SF: Glen Rice, Jr. (13.8 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 2.4 apg)
PF: Kammeon Holsey (9.1 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 0.8 apg)
C: Daniel Miller (8.3 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 1.8 apg)

We're finally at the end of a maddening stretch of going two weeks with only two games to show for it.  This is annoying because 1) we don't get to watch any damn hoops and 2) you know it's gonna catch up to us at some point.  This week is when it catches up, as UVA has three games in eight days.  The highly anticipated, sold-out matchup with VT is on Sunday (which means you get the rare sighting of back-to-back game previews out of me) and then next Thursday is Boston College.  It'll be nice to finally catch up to the rest of the ACC, as we're the only team who has yet to play three games, while some have four.

Georgia Tech is very literally in a rebuilding year; this game will be played at the downtown home of the Atlanta Hawks instead of on campus, as the Alexander Memorial Coliseum has been razed for a total renovation.  Since we don't visit the sleepy Conte Forum in Boston this year, it might be the easiest road game of the season in terms of atmosphere.

-- UVA on offense

Georgia Tech hasn't played to the level expected of an ACC team this year, but their defense mostly isn't to blame.  Thanks to a team blocked-shot percentage of 16.2 (that is, they block 16 percent of opponents' shots), which is 9th in the country, they're allowing opponents a shooting percentage of just 41.8% from two-point range.  This is mostly the result of the presence of block machine Daniel Miller, who gets almost three per game.  Miller is 6'11" and a stocky 258 pounds, making him very likely to shut down Assane Sene if that is his assignment.  If guarding Mike Scott, it could be an awfully fun battle.  Scott's Sheed Wallace fadeaways will be the key to winning that one, as even Mike Scott will have a tough time backing down a guy as big as Miller.

However, GT does not do well in the causing-turnovers department.  Combined with their propensity to turn the ball over themselves, that should set up a decent advantage for UVA, which does a solid job of taking care of the ball.  Point guards, if they're pretty good at defense, should get their share of steals, but Mfon Udofia has only nine - just three more than Assane Sene.  Expect UVA's veteran guards to be able to keep the turnovers to a minimum here.

GT's size at guard may give UVA some trouble.  They don't have any short guys.  Udofia is the smallest at 6'2", and Rice and Jason Morris both stand 6'5", meaning there won't be size mismatches to exploit in the backcourt.  A big lineup that includes Scott, Sene, and Akil Mitchell might be fun, as GT doesn't have a deep frontcourt, but I suspect that would be getting too cute.  The way to beat Tech will simply be patience and taking advantage of the fastbreak opportunities that will appear when they turn it over.

-- UVA on defense

Here's where UVA has a sizable advantage, as Tech's offense leaves something to be desired.  FTRS suggested in the Q&A session that if you shut down Udofia at point, you've shut down Rice as well.  That's good news for UVA fans; Udofia's A/T ratio is a lousy .89/1.  Combine that with Jontel Evans's on-ball skills, and Udofia could be in for a long night.  Four of Tech's players, in fact, average over two turnovers a game, and the team averages 11 assists to 15 TOs.

GT gets their scoring primarily from six rotation guys; the rest of the team just eats up minutes.  Those are the five starters plus Jason Morris, who starts his share of games himself and is more like a fifth-and-a-half man than a true sixth.  When I wrote the season preview, the seventh-best scorer was Nick Foreman; now he's down to 1.5 ppg and the next-highest (after sixth-place Brandon Reed) is Julian Royal with 3.7 ppg.  Reed has 7.8, so the gap is quite large.  The truth is that any time one of the six scorers are off the floor, GT is playing four-on-five on offense.

And nobody but Rice and Miller are very efficient.  Rice is a legitimate star, who'd probably have better numbers if he had better teammates, although even he has trouble from three-point range.  Miller can be a bit rough; his FG% is low for a center, but he shoots free throws quite well.  On the flip side, power forward Holsey has a tremendous shooting percentage of .639, but his offensive efficiency is being dragged down by his anchoresque free-throw shooting.  It's worse than Mason Plumlee's - Holsey shoots just .415 from the charity stripe, so when I say anchoresque I mean it's like he's tossing anchors at the backboard.  Teams are figuring this out, too, which is hurting his shooting percentage.  In the last four games, he's taken 25% of his shot attempts on the season (about right, since that's four of GT's 17 games) but 40% of his season's free-throw attempts.

The other thing GT does poorly is shoot threes.  This was a theme from last year, and it's not changed.  The guy with the most attempts (Reed) is also the team's worst shot at .279 from behind the arc.  Rice has the most makes (20 for 60) which is still only 1 make per game.

These kind of tendencies mean that the way to play GT is to take the pack-line principles to extremes.  Pack it in tight, take away any chance of dribble-driving and dare them to shoot threes, and play the ball aggressively.  Holsey can be safely fouled if he gets the ball in the paint with a lane to the hoop.  Miller will be a load, but I would have no problems with overrotating to double him if it means leaving a guard open for a three; I'll take my chances.

-- Outlook

There's a reason I always caveat my final-score predictions in the Q&A sessions.  I have something more of a respect for the GT defense than I did before.  But my thoughts on their anemic offense haven't changed a bit.  It does have the capability of exploding, as NC State found out; then again, NC State's defense is kind of poor.  Certainly among the poorer ones in the ACC.  The last time GT faced a defense as tough as UVA's, they were scoring 48 points against Alabama.

So I expect UVA to handle the Jackets, in one of those games that make ACC purists claw their faces and go "oh god what did you do to my beloved conference."  UVA is favored by 3.5 in Vegas and by four by KenPom, but this one ought to be easier than that.

-- Final score: UVA 58, GT 49

game preview: Duke

Date/Time: Thursday, January 12, 9:00

TV: ESPN

History against the Blue Devils: 48-114

Last matchup: Duke 56, UVA 41; 2/16/11; Charlottesville

Last game: UVA 52, Miami 51 (1/7); Duke 81, GT 74 (1/7)

Opposing blogs: Duke Hoop Blog

KenPom breakdown:

Tempo:
UVA: 60.7 (#339)
Duke: 69.9 (#45)

Offense:
UVA: 104.4 (#104)
Duke: 119.8 (#4)

Defense:
UVA: 86.6 (#9)
Duke: 92.3 (#50)

(Explanation of KenPom stats: "Tempo" number is number of offensive possessions per game. "Offense" and "Defense" numbers are points scored/allowed per 100 possessions. All numbers are adjusted, using the magic KenPom formula; therefore they are not actual, but projections of predicted results against an average team on a neutral court.)
Projected starting lineups:

Virginia:

PG: Jontel Evans (6.0 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 3.5 apg)
SG: Sammy Zeglinski (9.9 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.7 apg)
SF: Joe Harris (12.3 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 1.5 apg)
PF: Mike Scott (16.5 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 1.7 apg)
C: Assane Sene (5.1 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 0.4 apg)

Duke:

PG: Quinn Cook (5.5 ppg, 1.1 rpg, 2.4 apg)
SG: Seth Curry (12.9 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 2.9 apg)
G: Austin Rivers (14.7 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 2.1 apg)
PF: Mason Plumlee (11.7 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 2.1 apg)
C: Miles Plumlee (7.3 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 0.5 apg)

Go time.  UVA fans are amped up for a game that has the attention of pundits and talkyheads all over the country.  Hell, UVA fans have the attention of pundits and talkyheads all over the country.  Dick Vitale is coming, and in between effusive praises of the building, the fans, everyone in white, Coach K, and whichever Dukie just scored a bucket, he might even have something nice to say about Mike Scott.  This is the big chance to make Tony Bennett a coaching superstar, because if we win, the entire storyline will be about how Bennett's picture-perfect fundamental defense shut down the mighty Blue Devils in their own barn.  And for once, the storyline will be right.

-- UVA on offense

Duke has more tall people than we do.  They don't have Mike Scott.  Scott is quicker than the powerful but ponderous Plumlees and stronger than Ryan Kelly, and it will take a concerted, all-out effort by Duke to stop him.  Scott can score one-on-one against anyone in this league, and if Duke doubles him, then he's smart enough and skilled enough to pass the ball back out (if he has to) and see if someone can't bomb from deep.  This is one of the Hoos' top two hopes for winning: having the best player on the court.

Sammy Zeglinski has been a potent weapon at times for UVA, and I expect that Duke will deploy Seth Curry, an excellent defender, to stop him.  (If they tried putting Curry on Brogdon or Harris, they'd just post his ass up.)  UVA will need to do good work on the screen game in order to get Sammy any open looks against Curry, otherwise Z will have a quiet game.

This is where Joe Harris comes in.  If he stays poised, he could potentially have a big game being guarded by one of Duke's freshman guards, almost certainly Austin Rivers, who is a jawjacker and a half and a terrific talent, but prone to going on tilt at times.  Again, making Rivers work through a thousand screens could frustrate him.  Another potential hole to poke is the other freshman guard, point guard Quinn Cook.  Jontel Evans is generally unflappable and has the persona and the patience to break Cook down.  It'll be a good matchup because both are quick players.  Because of Duke's height, though, potentially being able to put three 6'10" or higher players on the court (they can do this if they like because of Ryan Kelly's peculiar skill set, but it's not exactly common) Evans probably won't get many chances to drive the lane, which will nullify his veteran advantage a little.

The X-factor (oh, I really hate using that word, but it seems apropos here) is Malcolm Brogdon.  He's a freshman in his first time at Cameron.  But he's also a big, scoring guard.  Rivers is the only Duke starting guard with the size to guard Brogdon, and if Brogdon's really on, he's got a good chance to abuse Rivers on the defensive end.  If he can do that, Duke would probably be forced to use Andre Dawkins, taking their best scorer out of the game.  If Brogdon gets heated up, and Bennett deploys a big-guard combo of Brogdon and Harris, things could get interesting.

Overall, Duke is a good, solid defensive team - but not unbeatable at this end.  If your shots are falling, you have a chance.  Georgia Tech shot 49%, and Temple, 56%.  Washington, 48%.  If you only look at the crappy teams on Duke's schedule, even those teams have averaged better than 9 points every 10 possessions, which isn't exactly good, but we're talking about Western Michigan and UNC-Greensboro here.  If UVA brings good execution to the table, and the threes don't brick out too much, we will be able to keep the pace on the scoreboard.

-- UVA on defense

This is the part that everyone's looking forward to.  UVA has an elite defense that allows barely 8 points per ten possessions.  Duke has an elite offense that scores 11.5 per 10.  UVA likes to make you use all 35 seconds on both ends.  Duke prefers to get up and down.  Something's gotta give.

Duke never puts anyone on the floor that isn't a threat to score, forcing you to win the one-on-one battles.  Teams rarely do.  Duke will have a decided advantage in the post, as I think the Plumlees, particularly Mason, are too much for Assane Sene.  UVA must deny the entry pass, which fortunately the pack-line is designed in part to do, because Duke's shots are likely to fall if taken from the interior.

Another big question is: can the pack-line keep Austin Rivers out of the lane?  Rivers is their leading scorer, and Seth Curry happens to really like the two-point jumper as well.  Jontel Evans may be forced to guard the bigger Rivers, because I'm not sure who else on our team can really do it.  And then there's Ryan Kelly, the kind of player who just when you think you've got the game under some semblance of control, or are at least within striking distance, hits a damn three-pointer.  Kelly has been coming off the bench lately, which is probably just as well because I don't know who besides Akil Mitchell can guard him.

Frankly, though, let's hope this side of the ball doesn't come down to those individual matchups.  If it does, we lose.  Period.  This needs to be about Bennett's scheme and perfect execution thereof, and then Mike Scotting the rebounds.  All of the rebounds.  Rebound or die.

-- Outlook

I sort of gave it away just now.  Play great team defense in the context of the pack-line, and we can win.  Play perfect team defense in the context of the pack-line, and we should win.  Even against Duke.  Duke is talented enough to conquer the mighty Tony Bennett style, however, and perfect team defense is probably too high a peak.  UVA must find and exploit Duke's weaknesses on offense to make up for the inevitable cracks in our own defense, and play offense so patient and slow-paced that the Crazies get tired of bouncing on the balls of their feet.  Oh hell, let's just be honest: we need to play the kind of basketball that makes Tobacco Road declare us a stain on the holy purity of the game.  Embrace the snail as the symbol of our style, limit Duke's chances, and then stick the dagger when it counts.

Duke is so talented that common sense says I ought to be picking them to win, like always.  After all, practically every one of their players is an ugly matchup problem for our defense, one-on-one.  It's even more frightening that we were twice labeled an upset pick by ESPN writers, one even going so far as to say that it's a shame we only play Duke once.  But a couple months ago I wrote that I couldn't wait to see Mike Scott unleashed on an unsuspecting ACC.  If that doesn't apply to now, when does it?  This is a night for Mike Scott to be unleashed on an unsuspecting nation.  I will embrace the snail and my undying fanboi-ism and declare tonight's game an upset in the making.

-- Final score: UVA 66, Duke 62

game preview: TCU

Date/Time: Friday, November 19; 6:00

TV: Nyet

History against the Frogs: 0-0

Last matchup: N/A

Last game: UVA 69, Winthrop 48 (11/15); TCU 103, Austin College 45 (11/14)

Opposing blogs: none that care about hoops

KenPom breakdown:

Tempo:
UVA: 61.1 (#341)
TCU: 67.6 (#169)

Offense:
UVA: 103.7 (#105)
TCU: 100.5 (#169)

Defense:
UVA: 92.7 (#31)
TCU: 102.3 (#214)

(Explanation of KenPom stats: "Tempo" number is number of offensive possessions per game.  "Offense" and "Defense" numbers are points scored/allowed per 100 possessions.  All numbers are adjusted, using the magic KenPom formula; therefore they are not actual, but projections of predicted results against an average team on a neutral court.)

Friday, we have a game that nobody can watch, against a mediocre opponent against whom we have no history whatsoever.  Why, then, a game preview?  It's not like I did one for SC State.  Well, because I've called this one of the most important games of the year - if not the most - and that deserves a preview.  Life on the bubble means having your fate controlled by the RPI, and that means playing good competition.  And this is our preseason tournament, so a win garners the reward of playing that competition.  Win this game, and the likely reward is a game against RPI-boosting Drexel.  Lose, and the likely punishment is a game against RPI-killing Norfolk State.  The ultimate goal of this tournament is to get Big Easter Marquette onto the schedule, and hopefully beat them, too.

About the opponent:

TCU is a football school, OK.  Similar to Boise State, they've hung their hat on football in order to try and raise the school's profile; in this, they've succeeded with a Big 12 invite.  However, that prioritization is reflected in their basketball results; they basically end up playing out the string to .500 records and no postseason most years.

-- When UVA has the ball

I can't believe I'm saying this, but: Assane Sene can be used as - an offensive weapon.  Troof.  In fact, this will be the case any time we face an opponent like TCU, which has nobody taller than 6'9" in their rotation.  Two games now, we have seen Sene assert himself on the offensive end with left-handed lay-ins, baby hooks, and general abuse of those shorter than him.  Sene actually got into double figures against Winthrop.

The team is going to have to get used to the idea of pounding it inside.  I don't think that's wired into their consciousness yet, which is understandable - that hasn't been a great strategy in the past.  This is the kind of game, though, where they can take advantage of a size advantage and get Sene and the other post players the ball.

TCU has historically been a team that allows a very high shooting percentage.  And under current coach Jim Christian, TCU has never finished in the top 300 nationally in blocked shot percentage - that is, the KenPom metric that gives you the percentage of defensive possessions that end in blocked shots.  This looks like it's going to continue; Florida-Gulf Coast, which is TCU's only D-I opponent so far this year (and has been D-I for all of like five years) shot over 61% against TCU, and over 42% from beyond three.  This is not a very good defensive team we're talking about.

Maybe I'm a little jaded from the Winthrop game, where shots were just not falling, but I'd like to see UVA start banging it inside and see how that works.  I bet it works pretty good.  TCU's tallest rotation player, Amric Fields, weighs in at 210 pounds.  He won't be able to guard either Mike Scott or Assane Sene.

The other interesting matchup that UVA may be able to exploit is at point guard, where TCU has a pair of smallish players.  I don't have any idea if Sammy Zeglinski will be available on Friday; if not, Malcolm Brogdon will once again be the backup point guard, and he'll have a huge size advantage on whoever guards him; TCU has VT transfer Hank Thorns, who checks in at 5'9, 165, and one-time UVA recruit Kyan Anderson, who isn't much bigger.  TCU has better size at the 2 and 3, but they give up inches and pounds at the 1.  Brogdon in particular may look to post up a defender, or draw a double team coming to help and hopefully find the resulting open man.

On the boards, UVA's attention should focus on forwardish-guard J.R. Cadot, TCU's ballhawk rebounder.  Garlon Green is a starting forward, but he's not a rebounder - he mainly gets only what his height hands him.  Like Fields, he's rather skinny and is more of a guard in a forward's body.

The final word, I think, is that UVA's point total depends on UVA.  There isn't much that TCU brings that's different from what we've seen or what we'll see in the future.  The UVA offense still has work to do to find its rhythm, and I think we can expect to see more of that herky-jerkiness until they really gel into a cohesive unit.

-- When TCU has the ball

TCU brings back two of its best players from last year in forward Garlon Green and point guard Hank Thorns.  Green is the leading returning scorer, and will probably lead the team this year.  TCU brought in a large infusion of transfer talent that shows up eligible this year, and Thorns may look to defer the scoring a little bit in favor of being a distributor.  Last year he averaged 7 assists per game (which was fourth-best in the country) against just 2.6 turnovers, so he is a threat.

However, when Thorns is not in the game, UVA should look to take advantage of Kyan Anderson, who has been turnover-prone in TCU's first two games.  TCU has thrown him into the fire as the backup point guard, and his numbers just scream "freshman."  His small-sample-size turnover ratio is barely above 1-to-1, and UVA should look to take advantage and create some fast break opportunities when Thorns is out of the game.

TCU's lopsided win against Division III Austin College skews their stats pretty heftily, but it's clear that the dangermen here are Thorns, Green, and Cadot.  Thorns rescued the FGCU game by hitting a layup in the closing seconds and played all but five minutes of the game.  Jontel Evans defending Thorns - that should be fun.  Our first string is probably better than theirs, but our second string is definitely better, and it's when the bench enters the game that UVA should look to go on its big runs.

-- Outlook

TCU has some players - Hank Thorns and Garlon Green are likely to be the best players we've seen so far.  J.R Cadot - not bad.  But UVA's defensive effort so far has been unimpeachable, and that's likely to continue.  When we find our offense, look out.  Full disclosure - this post has been brought to you by Sailor Jerry's, and not a small amount of it either.  (I got out early from class and decided to celebrate.)  However, the rum cannot obscure this fact: TCU is not good.  Not really "bad", but not good.  A loss here would be disappointing to say the least.  This game will have its competitive moments, but if we've got the tournament team that I think we do, it should be at least a 15-point win.

-- Final score: UVA 70, TCU 53

basketball preview part 1

It's weird approaching basketball season this year: I'm more excited for it than I have been in a while, and yet it's not a relief any more that it's here, because football is still doing work.

To commemorate the upcoming season, it's time for the preview as always.  In the past this has taken the form of a best-case and worst-case scenario for each player.  I'm still going to mini-capsule all the players, but I'm tweaking the formula just a little.  Splitting it up into two, though, which is normal.  Half the players today, half on Friday. Yes, special day on Friday. Normally I don't post anything Fridays during the football season unless something big comes up - this is because I do the game preview late on Thursday and I want that to be the top post on Saturday so it's right there - but it's basketball season and you should be hyped for this.  So we get all special up in here.

#0 - Doug Browman
#30 - Thomas Rogers

What they bring: We're combining the walk-ons into one category here.  Are either of them the next Will Sherrill?  Probably not.  Not that they can't play, but Sherrill's PT was the result of a rare combination: One, Sherrill was exceptionally smart.  Like, 99th percentile smart.  It made up for the fact that he was strong like flea.  Two, Tony Bennett was installing a new system, players were getting hurt a little bit, and Sherrill was the quickest on the team to pick up on it.  Bennett is a true-to-his-word kind of guy, and played the people who played like he wanted, and that was Will Sherrill, even if it meant leaving a lot of talent on the bench.  Now that the talent has caught up to the execution, the walk-ons are back to racking up memberships in Club Trillion.

What we need: For them to run the starters ragged in practice so that games are easy.

#1 - Jontel Evans

What he brings: First off, a lot more hair.  Plus, Bub's reputation as an excellent on-ball defender is not without reason.  He had 40 steals last year; only three UVA players in the last decade - Sean Singletary, Travis Watson, and Chris Williams - have reached that number.  So, the 2nd or 3rd best UVA hoopster of all time, and then back to the Gillen era.  Evans's ability to run the offense as the point guard improved in fits and starts last year.  His best was better than as a freshman, but he had his "moments" too.  His off-ball defense cost him some minutes in favor of Sammy Zeglinski.

Evans will probably never be a scoring point guard, but in general the offense runs well with him at the point.  His shot is decent, but not to be relied on.

What we need: If I could pick one thing to see Evans improve on, it'd be free-throw shooting.  Sub-.600 just isn't good enough for a guard, and if Evans is a spotty free-throw shooter then he can't have the ball in his hands at the end of a game.  He's the point guard, so that's not ideal.  He must continue to steadily improve his command of the offense, and a little more confidence in his shot wouldn't hurt.  His three-point shooting isn't going to scare anyone, but he can hit it enough to keep them honest.  But he passed up a ton of open ones last season.  Overall, Evans is plenty good enough to play the point in the ACC; the next step is doing it confidently and consistently.

#2 - Paul Jesperson

What he brings: Jesperson is a freshman who may redshirt; he's 6'6" and under 200 pounds (that is, scrawny.)  If he doesn't redshirt, what he'll be expected to do is shoot.  As of now, he's the kind of player you bring in off the bench and hope that he can loosen up the defense a little, maybe hit a few shots to swing some momentum.  Probably not much else will be expected.  Jesperson's size might create a mismatch if he's defended with a regular-sized guard, which he can shoot over top of.  But Bennett is all about defense first, and Jesperson - as with most any freshman - is an unknown in that regard.

What we need: For him to pack on a couple pounds, for one.  Let's start with hitting the shots he'll be brought in to hit, and see how it goes from there.  Like I said - he may sit the year, he's got to add some muscle in order to be ready for the ACC grind.

#5 - Assane Sene

What he brings: A ton of height and some quality shot-blocking chops.  There was hardly a facet of Sene's game that didn't improve last year, from his foul rate to his hands to his defensive positioning to his scoring touch.  Instead of being a presence on defense and a liability on offense, Sene can now keep defenses honest.  He's not the focus of the offense, but he no longer looks lost with the ball in his hands (or with it heading towards his hands.)  Sene will block shots, about one and a half a game, and somewhat neutralize opposing centers and slashing guards.  And he'll rebound without even having to think about it much, of course.

What we need: Such was the nature of Sene's metamorphosis last year that if he doesn't improve even a stitch on last season's numbers, I think we'd still take it.  Just keep shooting over .500 and blocking shots and be someone that defenses have to account for a couple times, and it'll bring a much-needed dimension to our game.  Some tremendously useful inside-out balance.  It may be that with Mike Scott's reappearance, Sene's impact will be the same but his numbers suffer a bit, and that's OK too.  I'll tell you what, though: give us exactly the same production as last year and I'll consider anything beyond that a pleasant bonus.

#12 - Joe Harris

What he brings: A hell of a lot more than we thought he did at this point last year.  Before the season, my take was, "just shoot good and everything else is gravy."  It turned out that Harris had a way-better-than-expected handle and a knack for finding the rim that you wouldn't have expected a skinnyish white freshman to have.  Oh, plus he can shoot.  He hit on 41.7% of three-bombs, which was the best mark for an ACC freshman since 1999-2000.

So now, he brings some expectations.  Harris was easily the top freshman of last year, and will be counted on to bring a high-level scoring punch to the court.  He was one of only five players to play all 31 games last year and he'll be in the starting lineup this year.

What we need: Other than Mike Scott, we basically are looking for Harris to become the team's top all-around player.  Harris can rebound and score from a lot of different places.  He'll be one of the most important players on the team, so no sophomore slumps, please.  Harris is the top returning scorer besides Scott, and he'll be looked at to improve upon those numbers and generally take a big step toward becoming one of this team's stars.

#13 - Sammy Zeglinski

What he brings: A ton of experience; it feels like Sammy Z. has been around forever.  Zeglinski will probably once again split the point guard minutes pretty evenly with Jontel Evans, and the two have been doing this for a while now so some consistency will be expected.  Sammy is a little bit limited in what he can do - for example, he can only hit three pointers at the very tail end of the shot clock from horrible places on the court.  (I'm exaggerating.  A little.  It's a little maddening that he can drop nothing but net and can't see it go in because he shot the ball in the process of falling behind the bench, and then goes 0 for the next 5.)

OK, he can be a little bit inconsistent there.  But actually, consistency is something he does reasonably well.  Even in three-point land.  By now, you know what you're going to get.  He's a veteran in running the offense, not especially athletic, but smart.  Decent defense, and a surprisingly good rebounder.  And he's cut down his turnover rate every year.

What we need: For there not to be a lot of difference between the offense as run by Sammy and the offense as run by Jontel.  That's a little more on Evans's shoulders, actually, but as I said, the minutes are split, so it's up to both.  They have to be excellent facilitators, and Zeglinski needs to keep on being a three-point threat and not go occasionally cold.  Other than that, I don't think we can ask much more; truth is, Sammy's evolved into a solid, steady veteran.

#22 - Malcolm Brogdon

What he brings: Tony Bennett's reports from practice have been glowing, and Tony's a low-key guy not given to hyperbole.  Brogdon sounds ready to step into the rotation right away, likely as a backup to Harris and/or KT Harrell, for starters.  I think we'll see a guy like Harris, with basketball savvy, scoring chops, maybe less of a sharpshooter and more of a handler.  Brogdon is being asked to develop his point-guard skills, and is said to be a solid defender as well.

What we need: If the starting lineup is as advertised, we probably don't "need" anything spectacular from Brogdon.  Just some bench scoring, maybe come in and abuse somebody else's second string.  That's for this year.  Not that anything we get is a bonus, but that nobody's asking him to be the star.  Yet.  I believe the thought within the program, though, is that Brogdon is being groomed to play that starring role in the future.  He's a versatile player, and with development could eventually be plugged in at the 1, 2, or 3.  For this year, expect a solid but modest contribution, with a couple of games thrown in here and there that'll make you go starry-eyed.  But as time passes, look for Brogdon to be a foundation player.

*********************************************

OK, that's the first half.  I cliffhangered you there, and you didn't even know it, because on Friday we pick this back up starting with my favorite player on this team.  Half the reason I'm all excited for this season is because I'm giggling like a schoolgirl over the prospect of unleashing a motivated Mike Scott on the ACC.  They're not gonna know what hit 'em.

I have one more thing before I go, which I stupidly forgot earlier.  If you're a UVA baseball fan you'll like this report on Danny Hultzen from the Arizona Fall League.  #2-pick Hultzen matched up against #1-pick Gerrit Cole in the Rising Stars Game and outpitched the shit out of him.  Good times.  Best line: "Hultzen is probably the fourth-best starter in the [Mariners] organization for 2012 after Felix Hernandez, Michael Pineda and Jason Vargas."  That's the whole organization, not just the minors.  Good stuff.

game preview: Miami

Date/Time: Thu., March 10; 12:00

TV: Raycom, ESPN3

History against the Canes: 4-8

Last matchup: Miami 70, UVA 68; 2/5/11; Coral Gables

Last game: UVA 74, Md. 60 (3/5); GT 66, Miami 57 (3/6)

Opposing blogs: seriously, you wouldn't even know there's an ACC Tournament if all you read was Miami blogs.

KenPom:

National: UVA #94; Miami #64
Offense: UVA #126; Miami #36
Defense: UVA #74; Miami #106

Tournament time, and raise your hand if you thought UVA would be the 8th seed with a 7-9 record before the season. Those of you in the media, put your hands down, I see you there. No, my hand's not up either. After three straight (competitive) losses, this team finished the season legitimately on fire - 4-1 in the last five - leaving a trail of bad-loss marks in their wake. Ha. No tournament for you, Maryland.

HOW WE CAN WIN

- No big games for anyone. Miami gets very balanced scoring- sort of. It's more like, on any given night just about anyone on their roster is capable of going off. Reggie Johnson, Malcolm Grant, Rion Brown - they've all had their turn playing the star. Against UVA in February it was Adrian Thomas. Miami's losses - even those where they top 70 points - usually occur when nobody steps up to have a big night. The key number seems to be 18 points; keep everyone under 18 points and that's likely to end in a UVA win. It requires very disciplined defense, of course, and double-teams in the post to nullify the size advantage Miami has with Johnson.

- Get ahead early. A repeat from last time. Yeah, "get ahead early" is exactly what happened, not to mention "get ahead late," and it technically didn't work. Well, it damn well should've. It will this time. Once again, Miami might not be in the best frame of mind, coming off a loss to a team that shouldn't have beaten them. But this one's really not about Miami, it's about UVA, which is riding a wave of confidence right now. They've forgotten they're supposed to be this lousy bottom-feeder. Keep the confidence going and it'll just build on itself.

HOW WE CAN LOSE

- Foul. Lost in the disappointment over the 9-for-22 free throw shooting was Miami's excellent performance on their end at 17/22. This is a solid free throw team, and the free throws resulting from fouling three-point shooters were the stake through the heart. Miami can score many different ways, and giving them and-1 chances or getting them into the bonus only exacerbates the problem. Don't foul on defense.

- Poor guard play. It took one of Mu Farrakhan's best nights to get as close as we did to winning last time, as well as en fuego three-point shooting from Joe Harris and Sammy Zeglinski. I think UVA can survive a mediocre night from outside, but not a bad one. We ain't getting no 15 points from Assane Sene against this team.

HOW THE GAME WILL GO

I wanted this one, because I wanted another shot at Miami. So you can blame me if it doesn't go well. I don't think that'll be the case. UVA is playing with confidence and maybe even a mission; Miami is just sort of playing. The crowd should be in our favor; there'll certainly be a larger contingent of UVA fans than Miami fans, and Miami never wins the hearts of neutral observers. With a friendly crowd and the confidence gained from beating Maryland at Maryland, I'll offer up a little confidence of my own. I never do this unless asked, but here goes anyway: 70-62, UVA.

you guys don't know what you're missing

You'd think having two college teams to root for would be the shit, with no qualms, no reservations. It is the shit, but it's trying sometimes; like when the scheduling wizards put their football games on at the same time. Having them battle for recruits actually isn't the can't-lose proposition that it sounds like. And I find myself constantly defending the one to the other's fans; it's amazing to listen to ACC fans thinking Big Ten football should be relegated to mid-major status and vice versa. Worst of all, neither one of my football teams has won their season-ending rivalry game since 2003. That's not just fucked up, it's fucked up twice.

Whatever; two teams is still twice the fun. Those of you without a second team will never know what Saturday was like. While Maryland was busy losing to Virginia after their football coach informed the crowd that Maryland does not lose to Virginia, Michigan dispatched Michigan State with rather more ease than I expected (though it wasn't exactly easy.) This is like winning a million bucks and then winning a million more and then not having to pay taxes on it. It's better than twice the fun. It's twice the fun and then a whole fun factory. And then - with Virginia Tech losing to Clemson and creating a popping sound you could hear in Katmandu - the competing factory across town burning to the ground. It's that damn fun. I may never experience such basketball nirvana again on a day that doesn't involve a bracket. Maryland and Michigan State - there are zero other teams I'd rather beat on a basketball court. That's as good as it gets.

So it's pretty sweet. So, do you remember the goal I set for this team way back when, and abandoned in the aftermath of an ugly loss to the worst team in the conference? Here they are: a winning record. 7-9 in the ACC - even in one of the worst ACCs in recent and not-recent history - is a frickin' hell of a thing to do when the best player on the team is unavailable for the whole thing. And it was sealed against a team I thought we matched up against badly. Badly, because they have a zillion really frontcourt options and we have Assane Sene and Will Sherrill. And then Maryland had to bring in dudes from places that can't even win the Eurovision contest in however many decades of trying let alone an Olympic bronze in basketball because what was a matchup nightmare in game one turned into domination in College Park. "Assane Sene, 15 points 5 rebounds" is something I can get used to. The guy is officially no longer someone that other coaches actively hope gets the ball in his hands. He is a Matchup Problem, one that requires Iceland to fix. If they can.

This team is rolling, and Miami awaits on Thursday. You may remember Miami from Why Can't We Hit A Damn Free Throw and That Was Only A Foul In Your Stupid Imagination. Fix these two eminently fixable problems, and UNC will be the Friday opponent. That's the near future. The distant-ish future is a sky's-the-limit proposition, on account of the rather large number of woulda-coulda-shoulda games (Miami, UNC, Duke, etc.) plastered all over the schedule. You are not only authorized but strongly encouraged to act during the offseason as if Seattle and Norfolk State never happened.

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Other stuff:

- I guess I can live with the complete lack of UVA representation on the all-ACC teams. Joe Harris seems like the most obvious snub, if any, and that'd be for the all-freshman team, but pretty much everyone there is statistically better than Harris. Kendall Marshall of UNC would be the only one who isn't, but I actually appreciate his presence there because it shows the media did more than look at the stats when they voted for the team. Of course, they would only watch North Carolina games - and Duke ones - but people who did watch Carolina couldn't help but notice the improvement in that team with Marshall on the floor. Larry Drew's huffy departure was the best thing that happened to UNC because it saved Roy Williams the dilemma of how much to get Drew on the floor when he was being so obviously outplayed.

- So they highlighted the venerable Maryland tradition of actively ignoring the visitor's lineup being announced. You know it's Maryland when their traditions involve making a big in-your-face deal of showing as much disrespect as possible to the opposition.

- Maybe the best thing about the Maryland game, besides having more points than them, was that unlike most of our wins this season, this one didn't involve grinding the game into an ugly brickfest. No, I'm not complaining about Tony Bennett's style. Winning is fun no matter how it happens. It's just nice to know that we can also win games by simply matching them basket for basket and then some. That's a preview of the offense with a post game. Clemson was your example of offense minus a post game.

- I was hoping for a path to sneak into the NIT if we ended up with a winning record, but the RPI is just too sucky. Blame Seattle. And Wake Forest. I've said it before, but I really do hope the administration uses some of that profit on the CBI, which is still a money-loser. Partly it's because this team really can use all the games they can play against decent competition, but partly it's because ending the regular season 4-1 has a way of making me crave more basketball.

- I haven't said the name "Sammy Zeglinski" yet in this post, which is a shame because he only scored 25 damn points. Yikes. Sometimes you just have one of those days where you're feeling it and can't miss if you try. I know the feeling and I'm five-foot-seven, so, far be it for it to be a totally foreign thing to a guy like Sammy. Nice frickin' game.

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I was going to involve the lacrosse game against Syracuse in this post, but it's getting long and that was a loss and why adulterate happy time with a loss? I'll have some kind of comprehensive-ish lacrosse thing later this week.

game preview: NC State

Date/Time: Tue., March 1; 7:00

TV: RSN

History against the Pack: 55-79

Last matchup: UVA 59, NCSt. 47; 2/3/10; Charlottesville

Last game: BC 63, UVA 44 (2/26); NCSt. 79, GT 74 (2/26)

Opposing blogs: Riddick & Reynolds

KenPom:

National: UVA #120; NC State #78
Offense: UVA #175; NC State #52
Defense: UVA #88; NC State #147

Senior Night! And maybe the last realistic chance for a win this season. NC State is a watered-down version of Boston College - offense is a little worse, defense is a little better, but they're still skewed toward offense and their defense on the road has been abysmal. Because Maryland is such a likely loss (again, UVA matches up so badly against Maryland that I'm just calling that a loss right now), losing this game basically cements us into the ACC tourney's 10th seed. The likely 7 seed? Boston College. Win, and three teams - NC State, GT, and Wake - will be permanently stuck below us, meaning the 8 or 9 seed is our fate. In that case we'd probably play Miami and the only difference between 8 and 9 is the color of the uniforms. That's what's at stake. Neither is preferable to the other - BC is better than Miami but Duke awaits the winner of the 8/9 game.

HOW WE CAN WIN

- Shadow Scott Wood. Part of the problem with NC State's game is that without Wood there's no three-point shooting. They'll get more than their fair share of two-point shots because NC State is a tall team. Wood is a big guy, listed as a forward but truthfully a big guard. It probably won't be enough to sit behind the pack-line and defend him when he gets the ball; it's best if he doesn't get the ball at all.

- Shoot the lights out. This is the only way this is gonna happen. The three-point shooting can't just be decent, it has to be great. NC State has too many ways to clog the paint with 6'8" types that'll cause major issues for our donut team trying to score inside. Offensive rebounds won't happen, because you know Tony Bennett sends his guys backpedaling the moment the shot goes up and there're too many forwards on NC State to make it work anyway. The first shot has to go in.

HOW WE CAN LOSE

- Troubles on the defensive boards. This is what worries me. UVA is still the best defensive rebounding team in the conference, but NC State is a very good offensive-rebounding team and they enjoy that height advantage. The Pack rarely use their seven-footer, Jordan Vandenberg, and they rely very heavily on two-point shots, so Assane Sene will be absolutely vital. He must be in position to get defensive rebounds and limit NC State's tip-in chances.

- That damn press. By now everyone's seen the film. Getting beat by UVA? Easy three-step process. 1) Press. 2) Get turnovers. 3) Profit!! Fortunately, Sidney Lowe isn't one of the more observant coaches in the league, but even so, a blind man knows to press UVA. You don't even have to do a lot of work on the press or have superior athletes running it. You just have to be in the right place and let UVA make horrible decisions.

HOW THE GAME WILL GO

Here's what worries me: NC State is a bad defensive team, and the reason for that has largely been their inability to get turnovers and inability to rebound on the defensive end. UVA will purposely give up the offensive rebound and a poodle could create turnovers against us if it simply employed a three-quarters press. So we don't have much ability to attack their defensive weaknesses.

But NC State's reliance on two-pointers means that even with a size advantage, the pack-line defense should be able to frustrate them at times. I don't think either team will shoot real well tonight. We might very well see a repeat of the Clemson game. In any case, this one should be close. Home court advantage is the best shot we have to see this one through. Call it a tossup.

game preview: Boston College

Date/Time: Sat., February 26; 12:00

TV: RSN

History against the Eagles: 7-5

Last matchup: BC 70, UVA 67; 1/18/11; Boston

Last game: UVA 62, GT 56 (2/23); Miami 74, BC 63 (2/23)

Opposing blogs: BC Interruption, Eagle in Atlanta

KenPom:

National: UVA #108; BC #70
Offense: UVA #140; BC #14
Defense: UVA #83; BC #225

If you want to see what might have been, if any of the woulda-coulda-shouldas had come through (not collapsing against Miami, beating Wake Forest like we were supposed to, etc.) look no further than Boston College. One game separates these teams in the ACC standings, and Boston College is praying for an NCAA tournament bid while UVA's best shot is probably a low seed in the NIT. Yes, there's Seattle. BC has Yale. We are on the brink, folks. Next year. Just wait.

Meantime, there's Boston College, and the shoestring tournament bids riding on this one qualify it for EPIC SHOWDOWN status. So I turned to BC Interruption to learn more about the Eagles. Standard Q&A wizardry. The other half is there at BCI, as usual you are compelled to click over to find out more about my own take on things. Including that which I almost never do unless asked: a prediction and score.

1. How are BC's tournament hopes?

Hanging on by a thread.

BC's 16-11 (6-7 ACC) record isn't much to look at, but the Eagles' benefit from strong resume numbers, including an RPI of 50 and a conference-best SOS of 16. Now, about that 3-7 record in their last 10 ...

Given BC's strong resume numbers, all they have to do is start winning again. Three wins to end the regular season, plus a decent-to-above average showing in the ACC Tournament probably gets BC in. If the season ended today, the Eagles' would probably find themselves playing in Dayton on a Tuesday. Next week's mid-week game against the Hokies is probably an NCAA Tournament eliminator. Cage match style.

2. BC graduates something like eight seniors, and Steve Donahue inherited a program with literally zero scholarship underclassmen for 2010-11 and had to scramble to put together a recruiting class. What's the outlook for next year?

Pain.

BC graduates Trapani, Raji, Paris, Southern and Dunn next season, and will be left with these players who have gotten significant minutes this year: Reggie Jackson (34.0 minutes), Danny Rubin (18.5), Dallas Elmore (16.3) and Gabe Moton (13.8).

Next year, Donahue will have Matt Humphrey, a transfer from Oregon, and six incoming recruits. Four of the six hail from Southern California -- PG Jordan Daniels, SG Lonnie Jackson, PF Ryan Anderson and C Kyle Caudill. Donahue is also bringing in SF Eddie Odio (Miami, FL) and PF Dennis Clifford (Milton, MA). So while Donahue is doing a good job reloading and bringing in players to fit his system, it will likely be a slow process ... and a LONG season next year.

3. How about further down the line? Is Donahue the right guy for BC basketball?

I think so. Far soon to tell, though. Donahue is playing with house money this year, and the fact that we are even talking about the NCAA Tournament as the calendar hits March is a good sign for his long-term prospects. Donahue took a less-talented roster of players that don't fit his system and has already won more games than last year's team ... against a much more difficult schedule. Opposing team writers and fans seem to come away from watching BC games stating that the Eagles are a very well-coached team.

Only two knocks so far on Donahue: home attendance and defense. I think the former will improve over time as Donahue builds a winner at BC. The latter ... well ...

4. Why does BC have a really good, efficient offense - rated 2nd-best in the ACC by KenPom - but they can't stop anyone on defense?

Over the last few years, BC has had a higher offensive efficiency than defensive efficiency. Defense was one of the team's flaws under Skinner that led to a change at the top. But this year, the offensive-defensive bipolarity is off the charts. I can't put my finger on the root cause. Sure, BC gets killed in the paint without a true big man on the floor, and this team gives significant minutes to three walk-ons, but even still, the defense shouldn't be that bad.

Donahue's teams at Cornell followed the same pattern -- highly-efficient offenses and porous defenses. Hopefully this problem gets better as he brings in guys to fit his system. The defense has to improve though, because there's nowhere to go but up.

5. Eight seconds left, BC is down by 2, with the ball, and Reggie Jackson just fouled out. Who's taking the shot?

Joe Trapani.

Trapani has been a workhorse for the Eagles over the last 10 games, averaging 16.5 points a game and 4 double-doubles over that span. A transfer from Vermont, Trap doesn't have the raw talent and athleticism that Reggie Jackson has, but he makes up for it with effort. Trapani can beat you on the dribble or drain the three ball. A lot of fans have a love-hate relationship with Trapani, but he's really come on strong down the stretch this season, and he'll certainly be missed next year.

6. Prediction?

A big, big test for Steve Donahue and the Eagles. Win, stop the bleeding, and keep your NCAA Tournament hopes alive. Lose and BC probably ends up hosting an NIT game in front of 5,000 fans. Being the homer that I am, I think Donahue gets this team to respond on the road, and we live to see another day. Then again, in typical BC fashion, it will be far too close for our liking ... 68-66 Eagles.

Beaucoup gracias to BCI. And best of luck in the cage match.

HOW WE CAN WIN

- Patience. Shots will come. BC's defense has gotten even worse since we played them. They can't force turnovers, and teams always find good shots. There are a multitude of ways to score on the Eagles. Patience, fortunately, is a strong suit of ours.

- Defend the paint better. Last time did not go well for the Hoos down low. BC, normally a good three-shooting team, shot very poorly from long range, but made up for it with stellar work in the paint. Center Josh Southern had four assists and no turnovers. That can't happen; for a big, Southern's a good passer, but not that good. Joe Trapani was 7-for-10 inside the arc. Southern, 3-for-4. And BC had 25 free throw attempts. Hopefully Will Sherrill can play more than just five minutes. Assane Sene will need to be a major presence and must stay out of foul trouble. BC's offense is one of the country's most efficient and very difficult to stop, and UVA has to at least make them work for their points.

HOW WE CAN LOSE

- BC shoots like BC. They were an uncharacteristic 6-for-21 from long range in the last meeting, which helped keep the game close. They're much better than that.

- Let Joe Trapani get going. Trapani is a UVA-killer. As nasty-good as Reggie Jackson is, Trapani's the real matchup nightmare in my book. When UVA beats BC, Trapani is invisible, but otherwise he's all over the floor. Joe Harris and Akil Mitchell will probably be assigned to guard him, and they've got to find a way to make him one-dimensional, preferably by keeping him out of the paint as much as possible.

HOW THE GAME WILL GO

BC is so damn bipolar it's ridiculous. I don't think you'll find another team in the country with such a huge spread between their offensive and defensive effectiveness, the latter of which has gotten even worse since last time. Of course, I don't buy into the idea that they're struggling, either - sure, they're 2-6 since our last meeting, but UNC and Duke account for half those losses, and FSU a fourth. It's been a tough schedule since January 19, and they've swept Maryland this year. The only actual bad loss was the latest, against Miami, which is only going to serve to piss them off.

And yet, I like what I see. UVA is 3-3 in the last six and frankly, none of the losses were uncompetitive, despite what the Duke score said. This team has had the willpower to beat back adversity in the last two games. They're playing like they're on a mission, even if nobody's real sure what the mission is. The BC offense is highly efficient, but not unstoppable, and the UVA defense has been getting much better, game by game. And of course, BC can be scored on. As long as shots are falling at the rate they should, the chances look good for a third straight win.

the kings of unlikely

The lacrosse team is 2-0, the baseball team is 4-0, both are headed for a big weekend of games, and the basketball team is barely over .500 on the season, playing out the string en route to another likely quarterfinals exit (at best) from the ACC tournament, which they do every year. They ain't exactly making history. If they're lucky they'll get a CBI invite, which isn't even the junior NIT - it's more like the NIT's janitor. No offense to janitors. If they're really lucky they'll get a low seed in the NIT. How does a basketball team get anyone to care about the longshot chase for a 7-seed in the NIT?

By caring very, very hard themselves. You might ask, if you were a national observer: how can you keep devoting so much attention to a mediocre bunch that missed the tournament bubble about two months ago? Then again, how can you not? This is the raggediest, misfittiest UVA basketball team in recent memory. It's held together - as an on-court product, not in the intangible locker room - with baling wire, Elmer's, rainbows, and the wishes of orphans. No duct tape. Duct tape hurt his ankle in December. There's an adolescent giraffe playing center, a shooting guard playing power forward, and another shooting guard that's sort of a point guard and can only hit three-pointers when flying backwards into the Gatorade jug with the shot clock expiring. And now they're winning basketball games. In the ACC.

Consider this: This team lost Sylven Landesberg, Mike Scott, Jeff Jones, and Jerome Meyinsse, replaced them with four freshmen, and that change resulted in a likely increase in wins - assuming they can win just one of the next three. That's how you know you have the right coach.

Now we have the kings of unlikely, trying to do the unlikely. Make the postseason and the NIT. Sure, it's a longshot. North Carolina did it at 16-16, 5-11, just last season, but of course they have something we don't: the name "North Carolina." And Assane Sene is gangly and awkward, and if you look up "assane sene" on YouTube half the results are "Travis McKie posterizes Assane Sene". He is the least likely person to create his own Sportscenter highlight and he just created his own Sportscenter highlight by MANBLOCKING two Georgia Tech shots. Somehow this guy who can't catch a bounce pass ripped someone's weak stuff right out of the air not two feet away from the hand that fired the shot. In the second half, he encored by belting a Daniel Miller dunk attempt into Mongolia. If you'd asked me two years ago or last year how I felt about a team led by Mustapha Farrakhan - who had made a career of shooting 4-for-15 - I'd have seriously considered demoting the basketball team to club level. Today I exchanged Q&A with BC Interruption and they asked me how to go about stopping Mustapha Farrakhan. An unlikely team leader, an even more unlikely clutch player - and yet without a trace of irony yesterday I exhorted the inbounder to find Mu and get him the ball.

Slowly but surely, and painfully, the kings of unlikely are coming up with unlikely wins. It is nothing to anyone whether they finish with 14 or 15 or 16 of them, but the journey, to recycle a hackneyed phrase, is more important than the destination. The process is one of learning how to win - another hackneyed, overused phrase, but never more apt than when describing a team that blows lead after lead after lead and then finds itself not blowing the lead any more. ESPN's announcers may condescend to marvel at the effort given by a team headed - from their lofty perspective - nowhere, and you might be crazy to keep letting your sanity hinge on every Sammy Zeglinski desperation heave. But as long as there's effort like that coming from this team, it's not only your right, it's a sworn duty. Lacrosse and baseball will still be there when they're done.

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Other things you should know:

- No, seriously, Assane Sene. He's playing like a man possessed and is Exhibit A in the case for Tony Bennett's player development skills. Easily the team's most improved player.

- Or not so easily, given Farrakhan's progression.

- The NCAA is not happening, obviously, barring ACC Tournament insanity. The NIT is also unlikely. But you know what I've been saying about unlikely. NIT bracketology is a bizarre thing to do and I'm not gonna bother, but if you're holding onto that hope, the best bet is to root for the chalk in the small-major conference tournaments so they don't take up space in the NIT. Fairfield, Oakland, Vermont. Teams like that. Winning, at a bare minimum, two more games, is also obvious. Probably at least three would be needed, including a tournament game.