game preview: Miami

Date/Time: Saturday, November 7; 3:00

TV: RSN/ESPN3

Record against the Canes: 6-6

Last meeting: UVA 30, Miami 13; 11/22/14, Charlottesville

Last weekend: UVA 27, GT 21; Miami 30, Duke 27

Line: Miami by 7

Last week I realized: I was only 6/7ths right on what this football season feels like.  Sunday through Friday, I'm pining for basketball season.  I want it now.  Saturdays....well, UVA botched yet another onside kick last week and the stream of four-letter words that involuntarily exited my mouth were all the proof I needed that on game day, it still matters.

UVA catches a second straight team coming off an emotional win, and one even more in the spotlight than the last one.  If you believe in football psychology, and yeah, it's not foolproof but there's something to it, then another favorable matchup awaits.  Interestingly, disaster though Mike London's tenure has been, the dude owns Miami, with a 4-1 record against the Canes.

-- UVA run offense vs. Miami run defense

Top backs:
Taquan Mizzell: 104 carries, 446 yards, 4.3 ypc, 2 TDs
Daniel Hamm: 46 carries, 211 yards, 4.6 ypc, 1 TD

UVA offense:
138.88 yards/game, 3.94 yards/attempt
92nd of 128 (national); 9th of 14 (ACC)

Miami defense:
200.25 yards/game, 5.22 yards/attempt
113th of 128 (national); 14th of 14 (ACC)

Fun fact: Six of the top seven run defenses in the ACC are Atlantic teams.  The other Atlantic team is 8th.  In other words, the bottom six run defenses all reside in the Coastal.  UVA is 11th, and this week ends a three-game stretch against the only worse teams in the rankings.  It so happens Miami is the worst of the worst.

This isn't from a suspect game here and there.  The Canes are legitimately horrible at stopping the run.  The Clemson game - the last straw for Al Golden - was a total bloodbath.  Clemson ran the ball 63 times and piled up 416 yards.  Gaudy numbers like that abound.  FSU's Dalvin Cook by himself racked up 222 yards.  It doesn't matter whether Miami won the game or lost it; FBS opponents have moved the ball on the ground, and the good ones have done whatever they want.

Up front, Miami has some occasional playmakers in DEs Trent Harris and Al-Quadin Muhammad, and DT Ufomba Kamalu is a solid space-eater as well.  But the back end of the defense is porous and often out of position.  And worse yet for Miami was the loss of LB Raphael Kirby to a knee injury.  Kirby is the Canes' second-leading tackler even after missing the Duke game, and might still be after this weekend, too, unless Harris has a really big day.

With improved play from a more cohesive offensive line, this is a matchup that actually swings in the Hoos' favor.  Amazing, but true.  Taquan Mizzell has shown he can hit a hole pretty darn quickly when the hole is there, and Daniel Hamm has carried the ball enough now to show that the vision he displayed in his VMI debut last year wasn't just because VMI.  These are backs that can't do much without help, but a little space goes a long way with them.  They should have more than a little space against Miami.

-- UVA pass offense vs. Miami pass defense

Quarterback:
Matt Johns: 151/249, 60.6%; 1,755 yards, 13 TDs, 13 INTs; 7.05 ypa, 126.6 rating

Top receivers:
Taquan Mizzell: 46 rec., 499 yards, 3 TDs
Canaan Severin: 37 rec., 513 yards, 4 TDs
T.J. Thorpe: 12 rec., 207 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
223.6 yards/game, 6.9 yards/attempt
79th of 128 (national); 10th of 14 (ACC)

Miami defense:
210.1 yards/game, 6.5 yards/attempt
41st of 128 (national); 7th of 14 (ACC)

Miami lacks a true terrorizing playmaker defensive end - or tackle, for that matter - in the pass rush.  Al-Quadin Muhammad has 3 sacks, just a little more than what you'd expect just by sending any old body out there, and that leads the team.  What they do have is 12 guys with at least half a sack.  So while Matt Johns won't have to devote time always knowing where so-and-so is, he will have to keep his head on a swivel.

Where Miami is dangerous is the secondary.  Artie Burns has five picks, Rayshawn Jenkins has three, and Corn Elder, the lucky guy with the ball at the end of the Duke game, has broken up nine passes.  Johns is kind of gunslingery when given the chance, but his skills in that regard are inconsistent.  An interception or two in this game is almost guaranteed.

So I hate to say it, but the short passing game adored by Steve Fairchild is the way to go here.  Miami won't get any pressure at all if the drops are short and the ball is out quick, and since our passing game is sort of a quasi-run game anyway, you might as well attack the opponent where they're weakest.  For UVA to get the ball rolling and sustain some drives, Mizzell will have to get half a zillion touches, and the WRs targeted with great care.

-- Miami run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Joseph Yearby: 126 carries, 641 yards, 5.1 ypc, 5 TDs
Mark Walton: 74 carries, 284 yards, 3.8 ypc, 5 TDs

Miami offense:
123.75 yards/game, 3.79 yards/attempt
103rd of 128 (national); 11th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
163.13 yards/game, 4.55 yards/attempt
81st of 128 (national); 11th of 14 (ACC)

Miami's running back situation is pretty simple: Joseph Yearby is the unquestioned starter, Mark Walton gives him regular breaks.  Trayone Gray comes in at the end of blowouts, and that's about the extent of it.  Miami has tried one tricky thing all year - Stacy Coley on an end-around against VT.

Yearby is easily the better back, but, fact is, most of his best work was done early this year.  Two-thirds of his yards came in the first four games of the year; the latter four, with no decrease in workload, he's averaged less than 3.2 yards a carry.  Walton is sputtering, too; his workload has markedly decreased, and most of his game-high carries are for single-digit yardage.

Neither Yearby nor Walton is really a home-run hitter, in fact.  Miami's run offense the last four games is basically the same minimally-functional assault UVA has featured most of the year.  It's a pretty vanilla attack, too, after last week's yearly dose of head games.  Last week offered some hope; UVA has done a respectable job holding down the middle against opposing run games, because Micah Kiser has been very much up to the task.  Last week was all about the edges, and UVA decisively won the battle there.  In retrospect, Trent Corney was a how-did-I-not-realize-this star of the game.  GT doesn't block, they just try to chop you down - which is one thing Corney is perfectly built to defeat.  If Corney could translate that to fighting off regular blocks, Miami would be in for a long day.  As it is, they'll probably have some stretches of success and some 3rd-and-9s.

-- Miami pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Brad Kaaya: 140/229, 61.1%; 1,846 yards, 10 TDs, 2 INTs; 8.06 ypa, 141.5 rating

Top receivers:
Rashawn Scott: 37 rec., 502 yards, 4 TDs
Herb Waters: 27 rec., 473 yards, 1 TD
Stacy Coley: 26 rec., 354 yards, 2 TDs

Miami offense:
276.3 yards/game, 7.7 yards/attempt
45th of 128 (national); 5th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
248.8 yards/game, 8.1 yards/attempt
109th of 128 (national); 13th of 14 (ACC)

It's still a mystery whether Brad Kaaya will return from a concussion he suffered against Clemson.  (Though, it's looking more likely that he will.)  His replacement, Malik Rosier, played horribly in relief in that game, but with a week of prep, Rosier was worlds more effective against Duke.  Still, Miami is better off with Kaaya under center.  Kaaya has only thrown two picks all year and was on pace to threaten the 4,000-yard mark for the season, an excellent build on his terrific debut season last year.

UVA will likely have a lot of trouble with Miami's deep stable of receivers.  Both quarterbacks know how to spread the ball around, and the Miami receivers are capable of stretching out the field and going for big chunk plays.  Miami leads the conference in long passing plays of >10 and >20 yards.  They don't go for the whole field at once off of a touchback, but they don't need to because they can get there in a handful of plays anyway, if your coverage is less than effective.

Combine that with excellent quarterback protection, and this is a very dangerous aspect of the game for UVA, which hasn't shown the ability to deal with too much at one time in the passing game.  Even GT burned them for 251 yards and two touchdowns, and that's a simple passing game to defend if you don't get sucked too close to the line of scrimmage.  Miami will make things very difficult, and probably pick up 300+ yards through the air.

-- Favorability ratings

Run offense: 6.5
Pass offense: 4
Run defense: 4
Pass defense: 2

Average: 4.13

-- Outlook

Lot of competing trends here to make this one a difficult game to call.  On the one hand, Mike London has typically had Miami's number - the one team he's consistently beaten.  In fact, until last week, Miami was the only FBS team he'd beaten more than once.  (He's now 2-4 against Georgia Tech, with the other win coming in 2011.)  And Miami is coming off a crazy-ass, emotional win, just as with GT, and this is the least intimidating road environment in all of Power 5 football.

On the other hand, UVA carries a 13-game losing streak to Florida with them, and it's entirely possible Larry Scott has lit a fire under Miami's asses that lasts longer than one week.  Miami's run defense is horrible, but UVA isn't going to Clemson up the score on them regardless, and there's a semi-decent chance the Canes could pile up 400 passing yards.

So which is it - loss or win?  Because UVA football is obnoxious like this, I choose the option that causes the most chaos, consternation, and general uproar among the fanbase: a win.  Put this team at 4-5, and some people will wonder if this team can keep the comeback trail going all the way to a bowl.  Some will declare it's just the usual Charlie Brown and Lucy routine.  Some will chew their fingernails down to the knuckle in fear that too much winning will inspire the front office to extend the coach.  All are legitimate takes.  A loss is simpler - you just remind yourself that the next basketball game is sooner than the next football game.  A win makes a mess, and we still can't have nice things, so a mess it is.

Final score: UVA 28, Miami 21

-- Rest of the ACC

Byes: Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Duke @ North Carolina - 12:00 - We're used to it being for basketball supremacy, but now it has the Coastal Conference riding on it too.

Pittsburgh vs. Notre Dame - 12:00 - Possibly the best unranked team in the country, Pitt will likely shed that label one way or the other here.

Syracuse @ Louisville - 12:30 - This week we're chock full of games that would be better hoops contests.

NC State @ Boston College - 12:30 - The Pack are looking to get bowl eligible - and if they don't do it here, it's not a stretch to say they might never get there.

Florida State @ Clemson - 3:30 - I've been bitching about this for years and FINALLY they schedule this game for November.  This is Clemson's last legitimate regular season hurdle between them and an undefeated season.

game preview: Georgia Tech

Date/Time: Saturday, October 31; 3:00

TV: RSN/ESPN3

Record against the Jackets: 17-19-1

Last meeting: GT 35, UVA 10; 11/1/14, Atlanta

Last weekend: UNC 26, UVA 13; GT 22, FSU 16

Line: GT by 6

Part of the reason I was bitching about following this football team, is that it's really stinkin' hard to come up with a narrative for anything.  This is the spot where I like to talk about What This Game Means, but what it means is the same thing every week anymore: either one more loss closer to the end of the season or a week-long reprieve.

This one means quite a bit to Georgia Tech - a team that was supposed to contend, now facing down the barrel of no-bowl-dom, but staving off execution by upsetting Florida State last week.  With their most loseable remaining game turned into a win, GT now cannot afford to completely reverse that equation, so while coming off an emotional big win is usually a good time to catch a team, that's less likely to be the case Saturday.

-- UVA run offense vs. GT run defense

Top backs:
Taquan Mizzell: 90 carries, 371 yards, 4.1 ypc, 2 TDs
Albert Reid: 37 carries, 163 yards, 4.4 ypc, 1 TD

UVA offense:
125.43 yards/game, 3.66 yards/attempt
111th of 128 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)

GT defense:
164.88 yards/game, 4.73 yards/attempt
94th of 128 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)

Could it be that UVA's running game is on a genuine upward trend?  The ground game surpassed 200 yards against UNC for the first time this season, and Smoke Mizzell picked up 117 yards; his previous career best was 66.  Daniel Hamm added 70 - mostly on one carry, but that makes two very long pickups in three games for the run game, and it gets harder to ignore them the more they're produced.

UNC had a pretty forgiving defense, but so does Georgia Tech.  Four of their opponents - all good ones - have reached that 200-yard threshold.  Alcorn State had 166.  Truth is, very few running backs have had unproductive days.  Adam Gotsis is a legitimate playmaking DT, but like David Dean, he's usually double-teamed and can't get the help he needs.  GT is most vulnerable on the outside, where the DEs are undersized and there's no playmaking linebacker to clean up.  (There's also no real nose tackle to be found; the defensive tackles are all better suited to the three-tech, but someone has to hold down the fort at the nose, usually Jabari Hunt, and he's not really up to the task.)  The team tackle leader is MLB P.J. Davis with just 54, and the next-most is 36, owned by strong safety Jamal Golden.

No doubt this team is setting me up for disappointment again, but there's reason to be more optimistic about the run game right now than at any previous point this season - including the very beginning.  Continuity along the O-line is certainly helping.  I think Jay Whitmire is finally rounding back into form.  Maybe the best sign is that I went "aw shit" when Jackson Matteo briefly went down during the UNC game - instead of just rolling my eyes at once again having to shuffle the O-line.  You can move the ball on Georgia Tech - and if the past two games can be an indicator, UVA just might do it.

-- UVA pass offense vs. GT pass defense

Quarterback:
Matt Johns: 134/221, 60.6%; 1,580 yards, 12 TDs, 12 INTs; 7.15 ypa, 127.7 rating

Top receivers:
Taquan Mizzell: 41 rec., 466 yards, 3 TDs
Canaan Severin: 33 rec., 458 yards, 3 TDs
T.J. Thorpe: 10 rec., 187 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
230.6 yards/game, 7.0 yards/attempt
79th of 128, 11th of 14 (ACC)

GT defense:
194.8 yards/game, 6.8 yards/attempt
55th of 128, 9th of 14 (ACC)

On the flip side, the passing game has chosen this moment to hit a downslide.  While the running game hit 200 yards last week, Matt Johns missed that mark for the first time this year, and by a lot, too.  A lot of that's on him.  Not every INT was his fault last week - but the one he lofted ten feet over Canaan Severin's head sure was.  It goes without saying he needs to erase those turnovers.

Gotsis remains the primary threat in this area, as he's a solid up-the-middle pass rusher.  Otherwise, GT finds it tough to generate a pass rush without blitzing, and that's not something they do often.  DC Ted Roof prefers a zone scheme and has been known to throw six defensive backs out there more often than a lot of coordinators.  The top pass defender in the secondary is D.J. White, with two picks and five break-ups.

You often see it said about quarterbacks, "we just have to get some pressure on him."  This of course is a close cousin to "we need to not turn the ball over," but with Johns, he does seem like one of those quarterbacks whose performance suffers more than usual from being pressured too much.  And unfortunately the offensive line lets that happen more than it should.  But a bend-don't-break scheme is exactly the kind of thing Steve Fairchild game-plans against.  If the opposition wants to play zone and let you amass six-yard completions all day, Fairchild will greedily slop that up.  I could see that working out.

-- GT run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Justin Thomas: 107 carries, 400 yards, 3.7 ypc, 6 TDs
Patrick Skov: 81 carries, 331 yards, 4.1 ypc, 6 TDs
Marcus Marshall: 57 carries, 508 yards, 8.9 ypc, 4 TDs

GT offense:
283.38 yards/game, 5.60 yards/attempt
16th of 128, 2nd of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
165.86 yards/game, 4.57 yards/attempt
87th of 128, 9th of 14 (ACC)

No need to overdo this.  By now you know what GT does.  You also know how to stop it: rigidly disciplined assignment football and stepping on, over, or around players who cut-block you.  Disciplined assignment football left this team a long time ago and never bothered with a forwarding address.  You can't stop this run consistently with half the team getting so easily redirected.  UVA hasn't successfully stopped the GT attack for a long time, and this team looks especially susceptible.

-- GT pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Justin Thomas: 52/118, 44.1%; 915 yards, 10 TDs, 6 INTs; 7.75 ypa, 127.0 rating

Top receivers:
Ricky Jeune: 15 rec., 319 yards, 3 TDs
Micheal Summers: 8 rec., 120 yards, 2 TDs
Mikell Lands-Davis: 7 rec., 169 yards, 1 TD

GT offense:
120.9 yards/game, 8.0 yards/attempt
38th of 128, 4th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
248.4 yards/game, 8.1 yards/attempt
109th of 128, 14th of 14 (ACC)

The Hoos will be without Tim Harris for this game, which is probably OK given Harris's propensity to give up the big play and GT's propensity to look for it.

For GT, Ricky Jeune is nicely filling the big-and-tall receiver role that they like to feature prominently in what little passing game they have.  Everything's pretty much as usual here too, except that Justin Thomas has been less accurate than most GT triple-option QBs, especially last year's version of Justin Thomas.  Defend the GT pass game by not getting suckered in by what looks like the 17th run in a row.  Also been difficult for our defenders.

-- Favorability ratings

Run offense: 4.5
Pass offense: 4
Run defense: 1.5
Pass defense: 3

Average: 3.25

-- Outlook

Can UVA stop the triple option?  No.  And that's basically what it boils down to.

I do expect an improved offensive performance, at least on the ground.  Or at least, for last week's success to continue.  But as with last week, the run game can be good but very unlikely enough to carry the team.  The run game almost certainly limited the UNC scoring opportunities in the very cliche way of controlling the clock and giving the defense rest etc. etc., but you can't hold that particular horde off forever.  Sooner or later you have to try and stop what you can't stop.  And GT is probably the best losing-record team in the country.  They're not as bad as their wins and losses show.  That'll out, too, and GT will be on the path to reviving their bowl hopes while UVA gets put in the position of having to win out to make it.

Final score: GT 35, UVA 17

-- Rest of the ACC

Byes: none

North Carolina 26, Pittsburgh 19 - Thu. - First game among the three heavyweights of the Coastal.

Louisville @ Wake Forest - Fri. 7:00 - Wake's last game against an unranked team.

Syracuse @ Florida State - 12:00 - Always bet on a team at home that just lost a really tough one - especially if their opponent lost to UVA.

Virginia Tech @ Boston College - 12:30 - Excellent chance - believe it or not - for BC to pick up their first ACC win.

Clemson @ NC State - 3:30 - Next two games mean the season for Clemson.  It's playoffs or bust this year.

Miami @ Duke - 7:00 - The Canes were embarrassed last week and Duke struggled to get past VT; watch for Miami to pull off the upset in this one.  Also, three decades of football just went "WTF" at that characterization of a Miami win over Duke.

trudge

What a drag this football team has become.  It's a drag to watch.  It's a drag to write about.  It's a drag knowing we lost last week, we lost this week, and we'll lose again next week.  And yes, I know that we didn't actually lose last week, but at 2-5, trudging our way through an unremarkable loss to yet another better-coached team, it sure has a way of feeling like that.

There are 128 teams in I-A football; 25 of them are currently out of legitimate bowl contention, which I define right now as being 2-5 or worse.**  Exactly one of those 25 is in the ACC.  That means more than 80% of the teams in the country remain interested in the proceedings.  And with 80 slots, most of those fans will take home some kind of prize.

This should be a terrific time of year.  These games only happen once a week - they should matter.  Well, they do for most people.  Most people are eagerly devouring details of Saturday's opponent, and when that day comes, well, it's one of only 12 all year so it's a big swing between winning and losing and your fortunes are either wonderfully uplifted or woefully downtrodden.  Until the next week when you get to do it all over again.

That hasn't been the case around here for four years.  Occasional smatterings of meaning have been tossed onto the canvas here and there like Jackson Pollock scooping from the bottom of the can, but in the end it's all come down to the same thing.  Lose, complain about coaching, repeat.  Saturday, I'll turn on the TV again, and I'll hope for a miracle, for some entertainment, for something good to happen, but certainly not expect it.  Nobody's hanging on every play wondering whether it's the difference between Good Times and Bad Times, because we already know which way we're headed.  We've already read the spoilers.

This is not interesting.  This is utterly, incomprehensibly, lame.  Football season has become a long slow walk to basketball season.  If ESPN were smart they'd have ponied up for the rights to UVA vs. Morgan State on November 13; a whole legion of UVA fans are going to be so desperate for a rescue from the grind of watching this football team that they'll paste themselves to the screen for hoops.

The whole rest of the ACC is still shooting for something.  Craig Littlepage, Jon Oliver, and Mike London have ensured that's not the case in Charlottesville.

**For the sake of expediency.  I'm sure there are some three-win teams whose fans are already telling the in-laws, yes, we can visit for Christmas, we're not taking that trip to Florida after all.

-- I didn't hate the offensive gameplan this week.  The run game worked - really, honest-to-God, properly worked.  Give the O-line a pat on the back.  Taquan Mizzell has never had a 100-yard game in college before; his next-best performance is barely half his new career high.

And I tipped my hat at those TE drag routes with the QB rollout.  You don't want to get too reliant on plays where you have to eat it if the one option doesn't pan out, but regardless.  (Tangent: that needs to be a goal-line play.  Rollouts away from the blocking, with a following receiver like that, are close to foolproof inside the 2.  Receiver open, throw it.  Receiver covered, sprint for the pylon and dive.  Even if your QB is fast and agile like Jared Lorenzen, he's still two yards tall.)

So yeah - whatever reason we lost the game, and it might've been the four interceptions, just guessing here - it mostly wasn't Steve Fairchild's fault.  That said, I still hate that his go-to third-and-long play is a screen pass.  That works never.

-- I also applaud the reasoning behind the attempted trick of waving off the "extra" player, because I'm just going to assume the coaches are self-aware of UVA's reputation for screwing up substitutions and figured if anyone could pull off a trick like that it would be UVA.  Then again, if anyone could forget that the 12-men rule takes effect when you break the huddle and line up, rather than at the snap, it would also be UVA.  The refs were nice and fooled, even if the UNC defenders can count to 11.

-- Nicholas Conte has a 46-yard punting average?  I did not realize that.  At least one of our players is earning an A+ for on-field play.

game preview: North Carolina

Date/Time: Saturday, October 24; 3:30

TV: RSN/ESPN3

Record against the Heels: 54-61-4

Last meeting: UNC 28, UVA 27; 10/25/14, Charlottesville

Last weekend: UVA 44, SU 38; UNC 50, WF 14

Line: UNC by 17.5

One of college sports' greatest advantage over the pros is the total lack of tangible benefit to losing.  (No, the potential firing of a fireable coach doesn't count; it's all hypothetical ether til that day actually arrives.)  In that sense, despite the complete debauchery that is the recruiting process (especially at oh say Louisville) and the golden handshakes we all pretend don't exist, and all the tattoo scandals and fake degrees and free shoes and everything, despite all that, there's still at least one absolutely pure aspect to the college level of football: it ain't for nuthin' but braggin' rights.  Nobody's lamenting the loss of draft pick status when you win, nobody's encouraging the team to lose, there's no such thing as tanking.  That's why the Syracuse game was great stuff.  Come what may in the end, there's at least one school in the ACC who can't lord it over us for a year.

Which brings us to the South's Oldest Rivalry - and the five game losing streak in this particular game that we currently wear.  Prior to that, UVA had won four straight, seven of eight, and ten of twelve, and in fact was very close to completely leveling the all-time series.  Plus we had that fun little streak where we hadn't lost to them at home since 1981.  Nice.  Bragging rights.

The Hoos are very unlikely to go bowling this year and very unlikely to save their coach's job, but losing accomplishes nothing and is always worse than winning - particularly in a rivalry with a name.  UNC is on a completely opposite trajectory from UVA, proving there is no such thing as sports-god justice given the two schools' vastly differing attitudes on classroom work, so bragging rights here are likely to continue to slip further away, but at least a win would be an unadulterated joy.

-- UVA run offense vs. UNC run defense

Top backs:
Taquan Mizzell: 66 carries, 254 yards, 3.8 ypc, 2 TDs
Albert Reid: 37 carries, 163 yards, 4.4 ypc, 1 TD

UVA offense:
112.17 yards/game, 3.35 yards/attempt
119th of 128 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)

UNC defense:
213.83 yards/game, 4.52 yards/attempt
82nd of 128 (national), 11th of 14 (ACC)

It's amazing what a functional running game can do.  Matt Johns played well against Syracuse, but I don't think the passing game was all it could've been given the shitshow that is Syracuse's pass defense.  With our usual running game, that would've been another loss.  Instead the ball actually moved on the ground.  UVA managed about four-and-a-quarter yards per carry without sacks, which is basically mediocre.  I'll take it, after what we've seen so far.  It moved them off the bottom of the conference, at least.

Of course, that's half because UNC shut down Wake Forest last week.  Kind of.  This was in large part because 1) UNC kept the pressure on Wake's non-scrambly quarterback, John Wolford, and 2) Wake's punter felt it necessary to receive a snap with his knee on the ground.  Slick.  Anyway, UNC.  Normally, midseason analyses of opposing run defenses begin with "have they played Georgia Tech yet?" and if they have, take any poor standing in the rankings with a grain of salt, and the earlier the game, the bigger the grain.

But UNC actually stopped GT pretty effectively.  Then again, Delaware, a team even more run-wacky than GT, racked up almost 300 yards.  Illinois, outside the top 100 in rushing effectiveness, also had their way.  Even North Carolina A&T had some success on the ground.

With a little consistency on the O-line, something that's been entirely lacking this year, the Hoos might actually find some room to run. (?)  UNC has an inexperienced defensive line and has found it tough to get any disruption from the front.  Linebackers Jeff Schoettmer and Shakeel Rashad do pretty good work, but they also have to do most of it.  UVA will never run roughshod over anyone, but I'm comfortable saying this matchup won't be a disaster, either.

-- UVA pass offense vs. UNC pass defense

Quarterback:
Matt Johns: 117/191, 61.3%; 1,432 yards, 11 TDs, 8 INTs; 7.5 ypa, 134.9 rating

Top receivers:
Taquan Mizzell: 35 rec., 409 yards, 3 TDs
Canaan Severin: 30 rec., 418 yards, 3 TDs
Olamide Zacchaeus: 9 rec., 48 yards, 0 TDs

UVA offense:
244.3 yards/game, 7.3 yards/attempt
62nd of 128 (national), 8th of 14 (ACC)

UNC defense:
135.5 yards/game, 5.5 yards/attempt
10th of 128 (national), 2nd of 14 (ACC)

You hear a lot about UNC's improved defense, and this is what they mean.  UNC was a wreck last year in pass defense, allowing 8.5 yards per attempt.  They've slashed three yards off of that, which is impressive.  Opposing quarterbacks are barely above 50/50 in completing their passes.

The linebackers are solid in pass coverage, and they pair up with a very solid secondary.  Carolina does a good job of limiting the YAC because their back seven or eight are sure tacklers.  Gene Chizik has taught them how to keep plays in front of them; UNC is tied for first in the country for fewest allowed pass plays above 20 yards with just 10.  That's a skewed stat when you've got two run-heavy teams on the schedule, but those teams also tend to produce big pass plays when they do bother trying.

The plus side is, Matt Johns should hopefully stay clean.  Junior Gnonkonde leads UNC's pass rush with two sacks - which is half the team total.  They both came against Wake Forest.  Even with a constantly shifting lineup, UVA has been respectable in pass protection, and Johns is good about not rooting himself to one spot.

Still, time to throw is one thing, but you have to find someone, and there's extra pressure on the playmakers this week - Mizzell and Severin, principally - to be the ones to create extra space and move the ball.  Johns is still being leashed to the pass-game-as-run-proxy strategy a little too much for my liking, and I expect guys like safety Donnie Miles to be in too many places at once, being as the pass game isn't big on subtle mental games.  I don't expect Johns to have a great day; the average per attempt could be as low as in the 4s.

-- UNC run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Elijah Hood: 79 carries, 545 yards, 6.9 ypc, 6 TDs
Marquise Williams: 56 carries, 405 yards, 7.2 ypc, 5 TDs

UNC offense:
218.5 yards/game, 6.15 yards/attempt
5th of 128 (national), 1st of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
160.83 yards/game, 4.47 yards/attempt
79th of 128 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)

Here's where it gets scary.  OK, let's be honest, here's why UVA is going to lose this game.  The Hoos could move the ball.  The run game has a chance to be respectable and the quarterback play is still solid.  That seems good until you see how an offense really operates.  There's a lot of experience everywhere on this side of the ball and Larry Fedora is a quality offensive mind.

Elijah Hood is in his sophomore season and now living up to the hype.  He's just shy of seven yards a carry, and capable of running people right over.  He gets a lot of running room from an incredibly experienced interior line; right guard Landon Turner in particular is a pro prospect, and all five starting linemen were also starters last year.  On negative plays, which are few and far between, Hood has only lost six yards all year.  By comparison, Taquan Mizzell lost seven on negative plays just against Syracuse.

Then you add Marquise Williams's legs, which not only have plays run specifically for them but can also carry him right out of trouble.  The UVA defensive line really stinks at maintaining containment in the pocket and this tendency is going to burn them like eight or ten times.  Not even a little bit optimistic about this.

-- UNC pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Marquise Williams: 84/131, 64.1%; 1,127 yards, 9 TDs, 6 INTs; 8.6 ypa, 149.9 rating

Top receivers:
Quinshad Davis: 24 rec., 288 yards, 1 TD
Ryan Switzer: 19 rec., 265 yards, 2 TDs
Bug Howard: 17 rec., 281 yards, 2 TDs

UNC offense:
263.7 yards/game, 9.4 yards/attempt
12th of 128 (national), 1st of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
252.2 yards/game, 8.0 yards/attempt
109th of 128 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

And this is worse.  Williams has been awfully efficient, and not only that, but he spreads the ball around exceptionally well.  Four different receivers - the players above plus Mack Hollins - have a minimum of 265 yards.  Three of them are 6'4" or taller (Switzer is the only exception.)

There is no need to overanalyze this.  UVA's secondary has been horrendous this year at reading routes and communication and important stuff like making sure all the receivers are covered and not triple-covering some decoy route.  UNC has tall, fast receivers, running a system basically guaranteed to confound a very confundable secondary, and a quarterback that, should you succeed in getting pressure on him, will destroy you for losing contain, which this D-line does all the time.  UVA's best chance may be to run a 2-3-6 defense, put two defensive ends on one side, at least try to force Williams to operate in just half the field, and flood the secondary with defenders.

-- Favorability ratings

Run offense: 4
Pass offense: 3
Run defense: 1
Pass defense: 0

I considered a negative number for the pass defense.

Average: 1.5

That's not really the average, but we're tacking on a half-point penalty for special teams, because Fedora loves to mess with London, who has yet to figure out how to defend a fake punt.

-- Outlook

If only the ability to sometimes make chicken salad out of the run game could sustain a game.  At best I think UVA can use it to artificially pump up the time of possession and limit UNC's chances with the ball.  They have such an explosive offense it might not matter, and even when the Hoos do get a stop, who knows what might happen.  A popular sentiment on the boards this week, what with Syracuse running yet another successful fake punt on UVA's special teams, is that UNC will do the same thing when they get a chance.  That seems likely, unless Fedora is just holding things close to the vest.

Which he might do, considering the strong likelihood that his offense will make mincemeat out of this defense.  UVA under London has shown no propensity whatsoever to stopping a Fedora offense, or Marquise Williams in particular.  Except for most of the second half last year until they ruined it by giving up the game winning drive, allowing recovery of an onside kick, and then handing UNC a first down on 4th-and-1 by putting 12 men on the field.  Truly a Mike London Special.  This one's not ending well, either.

Final score: UNC 45, UVA 13

-- Rest of the ACC

Byes: none

Clemson @ Miami - 12:00 - This one might put a few more Fire Golden planes in the sky.

NC State @ Wake Forest - 12:00 - The Pack losing this one would make a mockery of the scheduling-for-success concept after their hideous OOC slate.

Pittsburgh @ Syracuse - 12:00 - Pitt can be the third ACC team to earn bowl eligibility; quite a first season for Pat Narduzzi.

Boston College @ Louisville - 12:30 - Battle of the Birdies.

Duke @ Virginia Tech - 3:30 - Michael Brewer returns to QB for the Hokies, but it's their once-vaunted defense that's bringing them down this year.

Florida State @ Georgia Tech - 7:00 - Raise your hand if you thought GT would start the ACC season 0-5.  Yup, that's nobody.

game preview: Syracuse

Date/Time: Saturday, October 17; 3:30

TV: RSN, ESPN3

Line: UVA by 7

Record against the Orange: 2-2

Last meeting: UVA 27, Cuse 24; 9/17/05, Syracuse

Last weekend: Pitt 26, UVA 19; USF 45, Cuse 24

Ten years ago was the last time we played Syracuse - not even a thought of them ever being in the ACC - and I guess that's appropriate because this week (Thursday, in fact) was also the ten-year anniversary of what ESPN called "the wildest day in college football this century."  You'd almost never be off base in accusing ESPN of hyperbole, but in this case you might just have to admit they're right.

This is all apropos of nothing, of course, except that UVA got to take part in it so that was pretty sweet.  But that was then, when we were good.  This is now, when......(sigh).  UVA is actually favored in this one, which is certainly the last time they'll be favored in any game this season.  Which means that if you're some kind of whackjob who thinks we could get to watch a bowl game this year, this one is a must-must-must win.

-- UVA run offense vs. Cuse run defense

Top backs:
Taquan Mizzell: 53 carries, 196 yards, 3.7 ypc, 0 TDs
Albert Reid: 31 carries, 152 yards, 4.9 ypc, 1 TD

UVA offense:
102.8 yards/game, 3.27 yards/attempt
121st of 128 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

Cuse defense:
137.8 yards/game, 3.81 yards/attempt
50th of 128 (national), 8th of 14 (ACC)

Syracuse's defense is basically crap.  The pass defense is mega-crap and the run defense is just your basic average crap, but it's an overall crapshow.  Against even crappier offenses, though, Cuse has managed at least to keep teams from running the ball.

The Orange started the season 3-0 in large part because they kept lousy opponents from moving the ball on the ground.  Rhode Island netted four yards.  But Rhode Island is a 1-5 I-AA team.  Wake and CMU had slightly better luck - slightly.  Those teams are 119th and 126th in rushing offense this year, so stopping them isn't a major accomplishment.  On the other hand, Cuse got steamrolled by LSU and USF, allowing 268 and 281 yards on the ground, respectively.

All well and good, but you know as well as I do where UVA stands.  The Hoos would be worse than CMU if not for Reid's 71-yarder against Pitt.  That run added almost half a yard to the team's season average.  Cuse's defenders don't look that scary on the stat sheet.  The front seven doesn't have any big-time run stuffers.  Safety Antwan Cordy is the only player with any significant number of run-game TFLs.  But Syracuse can stop crappy run offenses, and UVA's is just about as crappy as it gets.

-- UVA pass offense vs. Cuse pass defense

Quarterback:
Matt Johns: 93/154, 60.4%; 1,198 yards, 9 TDs, 7 INTs; 7.8 ypa, 135.9 rating

Top receivers:
Canaan Severin: 26 rec., 348 yards, 2 TDs
Taquan Mizzell: 25 rec., 340 yards, 3 TDs
T.J. Thorpe: 6 rec., 145 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
246.4 yards/game, 7.6 yards/attempt
53rd of 128 (national), 7th of 14 (ACC)

Cuse defense:
255.8 yards/game, 8.3 yards/attempt
114th of 128 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

On the other hand, this has possibilities.  Anyone who's bothered to try passing the ball on Cuse has found success.  (Except Rhode Island, which doesn't count.)  Good, bad, or indifferent, the four I-A teams the Orange has faced have all torched them through the air.  Wake rolled up 373 yards; Central followed that with 430.

It's not the pass rush.  Defensive ends Ron Thompson and Luke Arciniega have five and four sacks, respectively.  Bad news for UVA, because Michael Mooney is sidelined and Jack English is going to have to deal with Thompson all day long.  Mooney isn't all that great of shakes and is probably out of place at LT, but English is probably gonna be toast on a stick.

Still, the Syracuse secondary is just bad.  Cordy is a run defender, period.  The cornerbacks can barely cover; opposing wide receivers are constantly having big days and spitting out huge gains.  Even when the line gets pressure, QBs are completing 56.7% of their passes, not far off the 64.9% they give up overall.

I'm always saying that if UVA is ever going to be successful, Matt Johns has to do it.  Here's his chance.  As long as he's not getting blindsided, he should be able to have a big game.  With the state of the run game, there's basically no excuse for not throwing the ball 50 times.

-- Cuse run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Jordan Fredericks: 42 carries, 236 yards, 5.6 ypc, 2 TDs
Eric Dungey: 41 carries, 137 yards, 3.3 ypc, 2 TDs

Cuse offense:
165.2 yards/game, 4.35 yards/attempt
64th of 128 (national), 8th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
156.2 yards/game, 4.51 yards/attempt
84th of 128 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)

The Syracuse running game is very multifaceted, so the Hoo defenders will get a lot of practice at staying on their toes.  They don't do the full Paul Johnson, but there's a healthy dose of triple-option game involved.  Rather than run it from under center, they'll go from the shotgun, so it's more like the Rich Rodriguez read-option combined with the old-fashioned Nebraska option pitch if the QB keeps on the first handoff.

But that's a play in the playbook rather than the whole run offense.  An often-used play, but a play nonetheless.  The Orange are also known to line up in the pistol, for example.  Or just hand the ball off regular.  They do a bunch of different stuff.

It doesn't work all the time.  In non-URI games, the Cuse is averaging about 3.9 yards a carry; not pitiful like some run games I know, but not too amazing.  Jordan Fredericks and George Morris split most of the time at running back and they've both been inconsistent this year.  Fredericks is a freshman and can be tough to bring down when he has some room, but almost all of his yards were against URI and CMU.  Morris, on the other hand, ran for a whopping -1 yards against Central and 7 yards on 5 carries against USF, but had a productive if lightly-used day against LSU.  The most consistent producer is actually the quarterback, Dungey, whose non-sack running stats are pretty OK.

It sets up to be a tricky day for UVA's defense, which already has been publicly scaled back on the assignment complexity.  Defending the option is all about complex assignments, hard enough when you know it's coming.  From a personnel standpoint, Syracuse doesn't scare, and they're not going to run completely amok on the defense, holey though it's been.  It's just a question of whether these still-raw linebackers and frankly rather undisciplined defensive ends can execute against the surprises.

-- Cuse pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Eric Dungey: 42/70, 60.0%; 660 yards, 7 TDs, 1 INT; 9.4 ypa, 169.3 rating

Top receivers:
Steve Ishmael: 14 rec., 218 yards, 2 TDs
Ben Lewis: 10 rec., 89 yards, 1 TD
Brisly Estime: 8 rec., 197 yards, 2 TDs

Cuse offense:
176.4 yards/game, 7.2 yards/attempt
65th of 128 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
272.6 yards/game, 8.2 yards/attempt
111th of 128 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)

For the second year in a row, Syracuse's quarterback Terrel Hunt went down with an early season-ending injury, this time an Achilles.  Tough news for him; for Syracuse, it helped them find their QB of both the present and future in Eric Dungey.  Dungey's a freshman, so just put him under pressure, you think, and maybe you're right but he's been basically a revelation for Cuse all the same.  He was injured and missed the LSU game; had he played, it might've meant an upset because third-stringer Zack Mahoney wasn't real good.

Dungey has some very respectable weapons around him.  Slot receiver Brisly Estime is a YAC machine and has an 89-yard touchdown this year, that against Wake Forest.  Steve Ishmael had a very good season as a freshman last year and is on his way to a better one yet.  The passing game focuses on them and H-backs Ben Lewis and Ervin Phillips, plus tight end Josh Parris.  Lewis and Parris are the center of the short passing game (there's barely any usage of the running backs) and Phillips can make some stretch plays out of the backfield.

As UVA's incredibly disappointing pass defense has yet to show it can stop anyone consistently, the best defense here is Syracuse's run game.  They lean heavily toward the ground attack, with less than 40% of their plays being pass attempts.  That's good for UVA; Dungey hasn't turned the ball over but once, so heavy use of the pass game would make things that much harder.

-- Favorability ratings

UVA run offense: 2.5
UVA pass offense: 7.5
UVA run defense: 4
UVA pass defense: 2.5

Average: 4.13

-- Outlook

Both these teams need this one badly, because both these teams are facing the worst team left on their schedule.  Syracuse's bowl aspirations would be a lot easier if they can win this one; UVA's, too, which is to say that a sliver of hope exists with a win and zero with a loss.

I'm about to do something crazy here and I don't know why; probably, it's because I think Syracuse's pass defense is so bad it overshadows everything else.  And because the game is at home.  Syracuse fans think the short-pass defense is of particular badness, which probably has Steve Fairchild rubbing his hands with glee.  If that's really true, Taquan Mizzell could have a monster day.  I think Canaan Severin will have a good one.

And I think we might actually be in better shape if we're losing after three quarters.  You'd like to see Syracuse shut down their pass game and UVA open up theirs, and the best way to get the coaches into that mode is to be losing.  So let's just say that's what happens, and Mike London gets another chance to praise his team's resilience and stick-to-it-iveness.

If we lose this one I'm never again predicting another Mike London team to win so much as a game of Candy Land.

Final score: UVA 37, Cuse 34

-- Rest of the ACC

Byes: Duke, NC State

Louisville @ Florida State - 12:00 - I'd be willing to call this a dangerous trap sort of game for FSU if it wasn't in Tallahassee.

Pittsburgh @ Georgia Tech - 12:30 - With FSU coming to town next week, GT is at risk of carrying a six-game losing streak into the UVA game.

Virginia Tech @ Miami - 3:30 - Battle to shake out some pecking order in the middle of the Coastal.

Boston College @ Clemson - 7:00 - BC has a great defense and nothing to show for it because the offense might actually be worse than UVA's.

Wake Forest @ North Carolina - 7:00 - Wake Forest is weirdly good sometimes and awful some others, and probably not enough of the former to win this one.

game preview: Pittsburgh

Date/Time: Saturday, October 10; 12:30

TV: ACC Network, ESPN3

Record against the Panthers: 3-4

Last meeting: UVA 24, Pitt 19; 10/4/14, Charlottesville

Last week: UVA bye; Pitt 17, VT 13

Injury report: (italics - out for season)

Virginia:

OUT: LB Malcolm Cook, OG Sean Karl, OT Sadiq Olanrewaju, OG Ryan Doull, OT Jake Fieler, WR Andre Levrone, LB Jahvoni Simmons, OG Eric Tetlow

DOUBTFUL: CB Divante Walker

QUESTIONABLE: none

PROBABLE: none

Pittsburgh:

OUT: WR Tre Tipton, WR Chris Wuestner, RB James Conner, RB Rachid Ibrahim, OL Jaryd Jones-Smith, OL Alex Paulina

DOUBTFUL: none

QUESTIONABLE: none

PROBABLE: RB Darrin Hall, FB Colton Lively

The UVA game notes point out that this is UVA's latest conference opener since 1968.  So on the plus side of that, we got to keep a zero in one of our loss columns for quite a while.  This is the third year of ACC expansion as a result of the recent conference merry-go-round, and in each of them UVA has opened with an expansion team; 2013 and 2015 with Pitt and last year with Louisville.  Most of Mike London's teams have opened the ACC season 0-1 - last year being the only exception - and it'll be tough to start a streak in that regard as Pitt has a new growly defense run by defensive wizard Pat Narduzzi.  The Panthers held VT to 100 yards last week, the second-worst performance of the entire Frank Beamer era.

Last year, after beating Pitt, UVA was 4-2, 2-0.  The game column was about the fact that fanhood is perpetually about the good feelings that come from potential, and that team, at the time, still had a lot of potential.  They won, of course, one more game the rest of the year.  This team could conceivably - not likely, but conceivably - start 2-0 again.  If they're going to pile up wins, these next two games are their best chance.

-- UVA run offense vs. Pitt run defense

Top backs:
Taquan Mizzell: 46 carries, 157 yards, 3.4 ypc, 0 TDs
Albert Reid: 27 carries, 78 yards, 2.9 ypc, 1 TD

UVA offense:
93.75 yards/game, 2.98 yards/attempt
124th of 128 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

Pitt defense:
71.25 yards/game, 2.46 yards/attempt
8th of 128 (national), 2nd of 14 (ACC)

That looks like a really nasty matchup.  Oh, don't get me wrong - it is, because UVA's "power run game" is like repeatedly throwing yourself at locked doors up and down the neighborhood.  You might break through one or two of them, but mostly you'll just bash yourself around and people who watch you think you should be locked in a nuthouse for trying.

Point is, Pitt's stats look really, really good, but the secret to them is that most of that success is the result of putting nuclear pressure on opposing quarterbacks.  No, that's not good either, but if you take out all the QB rushing stats from Pitt's first four games, you get about 4.25 yards a carry.  Weirdly, the quality of competition has gone up from game to game (except that Iowa would almost definitely beat VT) but the run defense has gotten stingier and stingier.  Youngstown State's Jody Webb gashed the Panthers for 127 yards on 17 carries - that's 7.5 yards each time.

Fast forward to the VT game, where Pitt gave up a total of nine yards on the ground.  Tech barely tried to run the ball.  Brenden Motley had more carries than all of Tech's backs combined, some of which he even intended to do when he broke the huddle.  Motley had a carry of 22 yards and netted -14, so... damn.

With five linemen out for this game, three of them for the season, the cavalry isn't coming.  Mike London announced that Jay Whitmire would start, which is all you get for a ray of hope.  The season trend so far suggests that Pitt's defenders are getting more comfortable with what Narduzzi is asking of them.  Linebackers Nicholas Grigsby and Matt Galambos are racking up tackles, and Pitt has a weapon in 335-pound nose tackle Tyrique Jarrett.  Between Jarrett and Galambos the middle will be closed to UVA all day long.  UVA has to hope to break a few on the edge, or not at all.

-- UVA pass offense vs. Pitt pass defense

Quarterback:
Matt Johns: 76/121, 62.8%; 989 yards, 8 TDs, 6 INTs; 8.17 ypa, 143.4 rating

Top receivers:
Canaan Severin: 23 rec., 298 yards, 1 TD
Taquan Mizzell: 22 rec., 292 yards, 3 TDs
Evan Butts: 6 rec., 63 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
255.8 yards/game, 7.9 yards/attempt
36th of 128 (national), 2nd of 14 (ACC)

Pitt defense:
172.5 yards/game, 5.7 yards/attempt
21st of 128 (national), 5th of 14 (ACC)

Matt Johns had kind of a crap day against Boise State, but he's still among the ACC's stat leaders.  And even that lousy game gave him a single-game passer rating higher than Greyson Lambert's full season rating last year and David Watford's in 2013.  That connection with Canaan Severin is turning out really well.

But the laundry guys had better get the grass-stain bleach out.  Pitt has averaged more than four sacks a game, including seven against VT, and quarterbacks have had it miserable against them even when not getting dragged down with the ball in their hand.  Only Iowa's C.J. Beathard did not go backwards on the ground, and only Beathard completed more than half his passes.  Motley got picked off three times.

VT's O-line is horrible, and UVA is at least acceptable in pass protection.  Seven sacks allowed in four games - not bad.  Not wonderful, but it at least puts you in the top half of the country.  Narduzzi is expert at bringing pressure, though, so this is a big test to see if the line can at least hold their own long enough to let Johns make some plays.  As with every single game this year, it's UVA's only chance at victory.

-- Pitt run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Qadree Ollison: 60 carries, 427 yards, 7.1 ypc, 3 TDs
Darrin Hall: 29 carries, 90 yards, 3.1 ypc, 1 TD

Pitt offense:
168.25 yards/game, 4.15 yards/attempt
78th of 128 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
160.0 yards/game, 4.64 yards/attempt
94th of 128 (national), 11th of 14 (ACC)

I, you, and everybody thought that when James Conner went down for the season, Pitt lost most of what made them any good.  Qadree Ollison says otherwise with his 427 yards through the first four games of the season.

True, most of them came against Youngstown State.  And outside of him and Conner's YSU output, Pitt's run offense hasn't been much.  Darrin Hall has piled up his 90 yards in completely boring fashion, no more than nine at a time.  Nathan Peterman is even less of a running QB than the usurped Chad Voytik, which is saying a lot.  Pitt's running game is 100% bread and butter.

Still, it works - because like Conner, Ollison is a massive load to take down.  Weighing in at 230 pounds, he gives linebackers a very hard time because he's as big as they are.  He's been a workhorse, save for the Iowa game when he had only four carries - and that's probably as big a reason as any why they lost because he was still more effective than Hall.

Pitt isn't real tricky, which works in UVA's favor as one of the problems so far this year has been communication breakdowns.  That's been more of a pass-defense issue, but UVA's chances improve when they can just try and win some one-on-one battles.  Ollison will be trying to plunge straight ahead, so this is a really good benchmark kind of game for UVA.  If they can stop the Pitt attack, great - they can stop something.  If not, and if Ollison is allowed to gain momentum before crashing into the second level, it'll be hard to see what the Hoos can stop if the opponent brings any kind of O-line.

-- Pitt pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Nathan Peterman: 43/66, 65.2%; 538 yards, 4 TDs, 3 INTs; 8.15 ypa, 144.5 rating

Top receivers:
Tyler Boyd: 26 rec., 274 yards, 1 TD
J.P. Holtz: 7 rec., 102 yards, 2 TDs
Darrin Hall: 5 rec., 30 yards, 0 TDs

Pitt offense:
162.5 yards/game, 7.3 yards/game
T-58th of 128 (national), T-8th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
285.3 yards/game, 8.0 yards/game
108th of 128 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

Pittsburgh started the season with a bit of a quarterback competition between incumbent Chad Voytik and Tennessee transfer Nathan Peterman.  The last two games have made it abundantly clear: Peterman it is.  Voytik has been dumping it off too much and his numbers don't look horrendous, but the team doesn't move down the field.

Tyler Boyd has dominated the receiving stats for Pitt, as he's done the last two seasons.  Still one of the ACC's best.  Boyd isn't a huge big-play threat and hasn't scored yet this year, but he's open all the time and easily one of the toughest covers in the league.  Nobody else has double-digit receptions for Pitt, and the only one even close is tight end J.P. Holtz, a solid blocker with a bit of a receiving streak.  He's got seven catches, Darrin Hall has five, a few guys have four.  As with UVA's Severin, Boyd is the guy.

Peterman isn't very mobile, and UVA should be able to get to him a few times, but really they'll need to do more than they have been.  Coverage breakdowns (which have been frequent) will be deadly if they involve Boyd, because Peterman will always be looking in that direction.  This secondary is too talented to give UVA the worst pass defense in the league, and they've got to figure out their problems fast.

-- Favorability ratings

Run offense: 2.5
Pass offense: 4.5
Run defense: 3.5
Pass defense: 3

Average: 3.38

-- Outlook

On the one hand, the natural thing to ask here is: if the coaching staff is so lousy, what good is an extra week of practice?  The answer is that UVA is 4-2 after bye weeks in the London era (there were two last year.)  Pitt is not a bad opponent to start with, too.  The coaches are talking about simplifying things up and getting less scheme-y and more react-y.  That's a little annoying considering the defense is loaded with veterans who should've had plenty of time to learn the schemes, but Pitt brings kind of a Big Ten approach in stark contrast to Boise State.  That could help the defense get its footing back.

Another plus: likely low-scoring game combined with a UVA quarterback that can strike big at times.  It's the most natural thing in the world to be down on the Hoos' chances because of the last two games, because those games sucked donkey dong.  Rationally speaking, though, UVA has a shot in this one.

Rationally speaking, though, Pitt is also the better team, playing at home, and a Pat Narduzzi defense against a Steve Fairchild offense is what we're staring at here.

Final score: Pitt 20, UVA 10

-- Rest of the ACC

Byes: Louisville, North Carolina

NC State @ Virginia Tech - Fri. 8:00 - The Pack started 4-0 with four games against Fluffycakes the Kittycat and need to prove they can beat a legit team.  Problem is, that actual test might have to wait a week.

Duke @ Army - 12:00 - Good news for Army: their four losses are by a combined 16 points.  Bad news: one of them was to Fordham.

Wake Forest @ Boston College - 3:00 - The 8-point loss to FSU might've been Wake's high-water mark this season.

Georgia Tech @ Clemson - 3:30 - Once hailed as an outside playoff contender, GT is still very talented but at serious risk of not going bowling this season.

Syracuse @ South Florida - 3:30 - On the other hand, Syracuse could very well get there, which would be very weird.

Miami @ Florida State - 8:00 - Miami hasn't won this game since 2009, which is one of Al Golden's greatest sins, but FSU has been unconvincing in victory these past couple weeks.

the wrong lesson

Occasionally, an argument you hear in favor of "scheduling for success" is that a losing team needs to "learn how to win."  That is, if you find yourself in a dogfight, it's better that said dogfight be against a little puppy instead of an ugly junkyard dog, to increase the odds of winning.   Then, when you fight the junkyard dog you'll have winning experience and you'll know what it takes to win.  "Walk before you run" is another way of putting it.

If that game was a lesson in how to win, it should get the teacher fired.  It's like if your driver's ed teacher just put on an hour's worth of clips of Ronin and The Bourne Identity and then tossed you the keys.

Frankly, I'd rather the team learned nothing at all from beating William & Mary than any "how to win" lesson.  If that game drove home "how to win," they'll go 1-11 this year, because the lesson is: You can get outmuscled, outsmarted, outcoached, and badly outdisciplined, and still win as long as the opponent lets you break open a whole bunch of big plays.

Two weeks ago, post-UCLA, I wrote about how nothing had changed, and we just keep going back to that.  Mike London has succeeded in stamping an identity onto the team just as well as Tony Bennett has.  Those identities are 180 degrees from each other on the discipline spectrum, but there it is all the same.  You can count on Tony's teams to come up with a big stop when they need one, and you can count on one of London's seniors to take an incredibly stupid penalty at a crucial moment.  (Kwontie Moore, step on forward.**)

Worse yet is that for an entire half and a good portion of the second, UVA was dominated in the trenches.  By William & Mary.  Dominated.  The Tribe ran all over them.  They double-teamed David Dean and nobody else could shed a block.  The UVA offensive line and that wonderful power rushing game which was never going to happen, was putrid.  Lemme state this once more for effect: William & Mary dominated UVA in the trenches.

That's how you almost lose to them.  UVA was rescued by its athletes, which is basically London's recruiting gameplan.  Unfortunately, the other ACC teams have good athletes too.

**Mike Moore was hit with the penalty, and he's kind of culpable, but the reason it looked like he ran over the quarterback on that roughing-the-passer call was because Kwontie Moore gave him a totally unnecessary shove, into Mike's path.  Totally asinine.

-- First bullet point has to be this: Why in the blazing blue fuck can't this coaching staff figure out how to substitute????  How basic is this?  How did any of them get an actual coaching job not being able to do this?  Why is the whole lower deck screaming at them to put an 11th man on the field?  Normal teams have to burn a timeout, I dunno, maybe once every other game or so, over a little substitution confusion.  Even most lousy staffs can handle this.  This staff burns all three timeouts of the half with that problem.  Un-flippin'-believable.  If the complete unpreparedness for onside kicks and total lack of discipline by seniors didn't clue you in on the attention to detail paid by this staff, the chronic inability to execute a fundamental aspect of football should help you figure it out.  "Uncompromised Excellence" has devolved into "Uncompromised Incompetence."

-- I'd feel a lot more confidence in the offense if they put together more drives like the first drive of the day. Big plays are neato, but if you can consistently march methodically down the field like that, you're in business.  They sputtered a bit at first, but then the ball just kept on going, right through the red zone as if their usual red zone issues didn't exist.  I liked it a lot better than Taquan Mizzell's screen-pass touchdown, which was nice but not repeatable.  W&M blitzed a screen pass and Mizzell is faster than anyone they got, that's all.

-- How bad was the running game?  Mizzell busted a big play which was rather well-blocked.  But you always take out the biggest play - if you still average 3.5-4 yards after that, you're doing well.  Take that out, and take out Jordan Ellis's touchdown run which was incredibly poorly blocked and 100% Ellis's efforts (Ellis ran 39 yards on that play, 38 of which were after contact), and also take out anything Matt Johns did because those are sacks and scrambles.  Here's what you get: 33 yards on 21 carries.  Power running game!

-- Have to like seeing the passing game opened up lately.  I don't have any confidence in the running game, but this team will pull off a couple surprises - hell, they could still go bowling, despite everything - if they put the game in the hands of Matt Johns.  Incredibly boneheaded interception aside, Johns is quietly playing like one of the top QBs in the conference.  Only Miami's Brad Kaaya has more passing yards.  Good thing Johns is doing so well, because Greyson Lambert is absolutely tearing it up for UGA.  Johns is on pace to set the UVA single-season record for passing yards, and the way he's going I'd be more surprised if he missed it than if he made it.

a billion dollars and a pony

Thank you to all the thoughtful people who emailed or commented to inquire whether I did, in fact, wake one billion dollars richer this morning.  No.  And no adorable little Shetland adorns my doorstep, either.  But I have my THUNDERDOME game, and I'll happily settle for that.

The London era has been sadly lacking in decisive ass-beatings of ACC opponents.  I'd call this the third, following a 31-13 drubbing of 2-7 Maryland in 2011 and a 33-6 pasting of NC State in 2012.  What it hasn't seemed to lack is wins over Miami.  If not being able to beat Duke, UNC, and VT is a major irritant for UVA fans in the London era, not beating UVA must be getting tiresome for Miami fans in the Al Golden days.

Having become more than used to second half collapses in both wins and losses this year, probably the best part of yesterday was the realization that another one wasn't on the way.  Couldn't even pinpoint when that was, but the Hoos kept scoring and Miami kept not scoring, and I'm guessing the Miami fans watching the game gave up on a Miami comeback long before the UVA fans did.  If UVA's red-zone offense was halfway decent - they scored more field goals than TDs once inside the 20, and Ian Frye's longest kick was from a line of scrimmage at the 5 - this would've looked more like the woodshedding that it was.

So the world turns again.  Only college football has the ability to do that in one short game.  48 hours ago it crossed nobody's mind at all to ask which bowl game we might go to, because how silly.  Now I've found myself considering the possibility in all seriousness.  All of which is to say nothing of who will be the coach next year.  Could one simple game change the fortunes of a career?  Or at least, extend its life support another year?  We'll see, I guess.

But, first, Tech.  Thunderdome looms.  Two teams enter, one team leaves bowl eligible.  With the combination of beating hell out of Miami and Tech's spectacularly pathetic display of offense in Winston-Salem, this looks like the most winnable VT game since basically the last time we won it.  What's surprising is how many VT fans have already conceded it.  Their offense has been godawful this year and the idea of Max Valles and Eli Harold getting their cracks at Michael Brewer makes me giggle like a schoolgirl.  Brewer's stats aren't bad, but he sure doesn't pass the eye test, either.  Let the least bad team win a trip to Shreveport.

Bullety things:

-- Canaan Severin's catch: not bad.  And a 14-point swing in the game, too.  You could see the DB get saucer eyes from 700 miles away, and he had his arms all cradled and ready for that football; had it gotten there, he'd have been five yards downfield with a full head of steam before anyone else could put on the brakes to go that way.  I'm convinced it was ten seconds from being 14-3.  Instead it was a 10-7 lead that was 30-7 before Miami found the scoreboard again.

-- Alright, the goose thing was funny, but for my money the real humor was the announcers' inability to speak for laughing so hard.  Flat-out lost it is what they did.

-- I think there were more Miami fans in Scott Stadium than there would've been for a Miami home game.

-- No, I'm not giving out a free pass for 12 men on the field for the punt just because we won.  This is the sort of thing that explains why I don't support keeping London even if we finish this season 7-6.  That shit happens all the damn time.  London could fix that if he wanted to.  He just has to properly incentivize Larry Lewis to do it.  But it's clearly not a priority.  Attention to detail still escapes this coaching staff.

-- Admit it: when you watched the first half clock tick down with no timeout being called, "here we go again" was in your brain in neon flashing lights.  But I suspect that one was more on the refs.  London was visibly livid.  And while you really damn well ought to score a touchdown when you're that close to the end zone, I'll say this: Passing on third down was the right call.  Out of timeouts, a failed run play would've meant going to the locker room empty handed.

-- I've been critical, we've all been critical, of Taquan Mizzell, so credit belongs where credit is due for this one: Mizzell ran really well yesterday.  And Khalek Shepherd did a nice job as the workhorse when Parks went out of the game.  He doesn't have the beef to be a piledriver, but he ran awfully damn hard.

-- Bowl talk in all seriousness: The ACC splits up its bowls into four groups.  The first group is three or four bowls, depending, believe it or not, on whether the Big Ten puts a team into the Orange Bowl.  (If they do, an ACC team goes to the Citrus Bowl.)  We don't have to worry about this.  The second group is called Tier 1, a group of four bowls (ex-Tire, Sun, Pinstripe, and either Music City or ex-Gator) that don't have a pecking order and just have to figure it out amongst themselves who they'll invite.  If UVA wins this Friday, there's a very, very slim chance we could slide into one of those, but it'd be unlikely.

The next group is Tier II: the Military, Independence, and ex-Motor City, in that order.  A 6-6 UVA team would be 97% likely to land in one of these.  East Carolina is the clear fourth team in the AAC, which slots them right to the Military; a very safe bet in the event of a UVA win over Tech is a trip to DC to face ECU.  Next most likely, I think, is actually Detroit; this would probably happen if there's no Citrus (50/50 chance of that), and the top 7 slots get filled with FSU, Clemson, GT, Louisville, ND, Duke, and UNC.  And Pitt loses to Miami and doesn't go bowling.  BC might then be the choice of the Military; their fans are still in close enough proximity and they've had a better season.  Miami would be a natural choice for the Independence.  Detroit would be left with the Hoos.  As you can imagine, I'd be all over this.  I even have tickets already.  Won them at a Lions game.

-- Watching Frank Beamer exult over a missed short field goal that meant he didn't just lose 3-0 to the worst team in the ACC - well, the sadness of that display was immediately evident, so I wasn't surprised to see that picture more or less all over Twitterdom.  You want an image of the sorry state of VT football, that's your thousand words right there.  But in absolute fairness to the Hokies, their fanbase is livid over their 5-6 season and at least 80% of them want Beamer out the door right now - and our fanbase is looking at the same 5-6 record (except with a way worse last four years) and the majority is either supportive or at least accepting of the idea of keeping London around as a reward.  That too is a statement.

Prediction summary:

-- UVA allows at least three sacks.

-- And throws at least two picks.

-- Duke Johnson is held reasonably in check, averaging no more than 5.5 yards a carry.

-- Kaaya throws at least three passes of 30 yards or more.  Precisely zilch of these came true.  Also I picked the game's outcome as badly as possible.

Stats on the season:

20-for-54 on specifics (37%)
6-4 straight up (L)
4-4-1 ATS (L)

game preview: Duke

Date/Time: Saturday, October 18; 12:30

TV: ESPN3

Record against the Blue Devils: 33-32

Last meeting: Duke 35, UVA 22; 10/19/13, Charlottesville

Last weekend: UVA bye; Duke 31, GT 25

Line: Duke by 2.5

Injury report:

Virginia:

OUT: OG Ryan Doull, C Jackson Matteo, CB Demetrious Nicholson, OG Jay Whitmire
DOUBTFUL: None
QUESTIONABLE: None
PROBABLE: None

Duke:

OUT: TE Dan Bellinson, CB Johnathan Lloyd, OL Trip McNeill, DT Jamal Wallace, LB Kelby Brown, TE Braxton Deaver, DE Taariq Shabazz
DOUBTFUL: None
QUESTIONABLE: None
PROBABLE: DE Dezmond Johnson, RB Shaq Powell

Duke has a good football team these days.  Eight years ago, that was the first definition in the dictionary under "unthinkable."  Right underneath was the idea that any ACC team might lose five out of six to them.  And let's be honest: I'm still not used to it.  The good news is, if we lose again, we can walk out muttering "just wait til basketball season" and mean it.

-- UVA run offense vs. Duke run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 104 carries, 427 yards, 4.1 ypc, 3 TDs
Taquan Mizzell: 42 carries, 173 yards, 4.1 ypc, 2 TDs

UVA offense:
177.0 yards/game, 4.23 yards/attempt
73rd of 128 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

Duke defense:
202.33 yards/game, 4.56 yards/attempt
85th of 128 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)

Ryan Doull's unexpected appearance on the injury report is a medium-serious blow to the running game and a pretty solid hit to the already razor-thin depth on the OL.  Doull will probably be replaced by Cody Wallace, who's been in and out of the lineup most of his career - and mostly out this year.  Wallace has always been marginal at best; the fact that Doull jumped all the way from kick protection to starting lineup, past Wallace in his fifth year, is not a ringing endorsement of Wallace's skills.

The good news is Duke's defense, which is junk.  Elon - a 1-5 I-AA team - sent their backs through the Duke defense for 5.4 yards a carry, sacks excluded.  Tulane's top two backs combined for 6.5.  Duke's defense wasn't great last year, either; losing top linebacker Kelby Brown really hurt.  Jeremy Cash at safety is a very good run-stopper and basically a linebacker, but he can't do it all himself.  Duke's defensive front line is somewhat undersized and not very good.

So it's a resistible-force vs. movable-object kind of matchup.  It doesn't take a running game like Miami's to tear up the Duke defense (although they did as well.)  I've said that UVA could ride Kevin Parks to a pretty successful run game if the O-line could get just a little bit of push and let Parks build up momentum as he hit the line.  That could be illustrated this week, even with a depleted line, and the fact that UVA's playcalling has skewed to the run side of things should help even more.  Duke's incredible-shreddable defense should probably let Parks roll to a second straight 100-yard game.

-- UVA pass offense vs. Duke pass defense

Quarterbacks:
Matt Johns: 60/102, 58.8%; 687 yards, 7 TDs, 5 INTs; 6.74 ypa
Greyson Lambert: 63/97, 64.9%; 564 yards, 2 TDs, 4 INTs; 5.81 ypa

Top receivers:
Canaan Severin: 21 rec., 255 yards, 2 TDs
Taquan Mizzell: 21 rec., 99 yards, 0 TDs
Miles Gooch: 17 rec., 220 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
220.7 yards/game, 6.49 yards/attempt
95th of 128 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)

Duke defense:
184.5 yards/game, 5.62 yards/attempt
13th of 128 (national), 2nd of 14 (ACC)

That defense that's been so friendly to run games, though, has tightened up against the pass.  Duke runs a nickel package almost exclusively and they have the safety depth to do it.  Cash is just a good defender regardless of what the offense is doing, and DeVon Edwards is an excellent complement.  There isn't much of a pass rush, but DE Jordan DeWalt-Ondijo provides a decent challenge there.

Greyson Lambert isn't on the injury report.  He'll almost certainly get the start, but nobody really knows what London is thinking when it comes to the hook.  You know my thoughts: let the starter play.  Johns has done a solid job, but Lambert, I think, has done a little bit of a better job taking care of the ball (you'll remember, his first two picks weren't his fault.)

That'll be the main thing here.  Duke's inability to stop the run could open up certain passing opportunities as well, little screens and such, the sort of thing that Steve Fairchild tries in order to put the ball in Taquan Mizzell's hands in space.  Lambert should usually have time, as well.  Duke's numbers have come largely against crap offenses - Kansas and Tulane in particular really suck at passing the ball - but they've at least stopped them, unlike in the run game.  In Tulane's case, the Blue Devil defense took two interceptions all the way back.  If the running game can get moving like I think, Lambert's main job will be zero INTs.  Not easy, against a quality group of safeties, but I don't think much will be asked of him.

-- Duke run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Josh Snead: 49 carries, 256 yards, 5.2 ypc, 2 TDs
Shaun Wilson: 43 carries, 466 yards, 10.8 ypc, 4 TDs

Duke offense:
228.5 yards/game, 5.83 yards/attempt
12th of 128 (national), 2nd of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
91.5 yards/game, 2.72 yards/attempt
4th of 128 (national), 2nd of 14 (ACC)

Duke's run game has been enormously successful, frankly, and it doesn't matter who carries the ball.  They spread it out a ton.  Freshman Shaun Wilson piled up 245 yards on just 12 carries against the admittedly pitiful Kansas Jayhawks.  Josh Snead and Shaq Powell have been very solid backs throughout their careers.  And Duke likes to run their quarterbacks plenty as well; Anthony Boone is mobile enough, but Duke has packages as well for Thomas Sirk, an excellent runner with good size.

Of course, the one time Duke went against a decent defense, they got snuffed pretty good.  That was Miami - the game was played in a drenching downpour, but Miami did alright on the ground.  Duke does have a pretty solid offensive line, but I think you might have been introduced before to the UVA front six-or-seven.  Pitt's James Conner certainly was.

The main thing for UVA will be to sniff out the various looks Duke will throw at them, especially when Sirk enters the game.  Duke's O-line is good and will win their share of battles, making the linebackers and Quin Blanding pretty important.  And that should make Duke fans nervous.

-- Duke pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Anthony Boone: 121/210, 57.6%; 1,186 yards, 8 TDs, 3 INTs; 5.65 ypa

Top receivers:
Jamison Crowder: 32 rec., 372 yards, 2 TDs
Max McCaffrey: 23 rec., 236 yards, 3 TDs
Issac Blakeney: 19 rec., 212 yards, 3 TDs

Duke offense:
205.5 yards/game, 5.50 yards/attempt
122nd of 128 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
239.3 yards/game, 6.81 yards/attempt
54th of 128 (national), 8th of 14 (ACC)

Statistically, Anthony Boone appears to have taken a step backwards from last year, a worrying sign given Duke's competition so far (remember, GT's defense = not that good.)  Six and a half percentage points worse in the completion department, a yard and a half worse per attempt.  This is the one point where we'll make a big allowance for the rainstorm in Miami, though - even though it was only during the second half.  Take away Boone's Miami stats and he's still worse, but not appreciably.

Still, perhaps this will be a telling stat: the WRs' yards per catch.  UVA fans at times bemoan a dink-and-dunk approach, but every one of UVA's top four wide receivers (RBs not included) has a higher per-catch average than every one of Duke's top four.  Duke and dunk.

This is reflected in Duke's pass protection stats; they've only allowed four sacks all season, which is a testament to the O-line, the mobility of the quarterbacks, and the quickness with which they get rid of the ball.  Duke will probably try and drop the ball off even quicker given UVA's blitzy pass rush.  There could be some plays where that burns us - slant routes and the like - so safety play will be huge.  The other important thing is not getting sucked in on Sirk packages, although he hasn't completed a pass since the Kansas game (third of the season) and isn't guaranteed to even try a pass here.

-- Favorability ratings:

UVA run offense: 6
UVA pass offense: 4
UVA run defense: 6.5
UVA pass defense: 6

Average: 5.6

-- Outlook

It's certainly possible I'm just getting sucked in to the excitement of novel ideas like a winning record, but - I'm not impressed with Duke's schedule, I'm not impressed with their results, with scores that belie a lack of statistical dominance, and I'm not impressed with their front six.  And I'm like a tweenage girl at a One Direction concert for the front line of our defense.

So I'm optimistic.  Any time a team faces us with a bad defense and a good offense, rather than the other way round, we have at least a chance and probably more.  UVA's defense isn't good enough to carry the offense through every single game, but this one - I'd say yes.

-- Predictions

-- Kevin Parks runs for over 100 yards.

-- Greyson Lambert (or our starting quarterback) attempts fewer than 20 passes.

-- UVA loses the turnover battle.

-- Duke's run game is more than a yard worse than their average.

-- Quin Blanding has 10 or more tackles.

-- UVA wins time of possession by six or more minutes.

Final score: UVA 28, Duke 17

-- Rest of the ACC

Bye: Miami

Virginia Tech @ Pittsburgh - Thu., 7:30 - I've been watching this game all evening, and Tech's offense is pitiful and the Hokies are basically getting dominated, but I've never seen a team blow stuff up in its own face like Pitt is doing.

Syracuse @ Wake Forest - 12:00 - A pair of 0-2 teams battle.  Critical game for Cuse if they're going to salvage bowl eligibility.

Clemson @ Boston College - 3:30 - Clemson is favored, but only by 4.5; a huge game if they want to try and stay in shouting distance of FSU.

NC State @ Louisville - 3:30 - The Pack started 4-0 and are now 4-3, staring at 4-4, proving that you can "schedule for success" and still be a total embarrassment.

Georgia Tech @ North Carolina - 7:00 - I may actually Tivo this one in hopes that the final score is like 84-77.

Florida State vs. Notre Dame - 8:00 - Whoever wins has a very, very inside track for inclusion in the four-team playoff.

pitt stop

When you have a crappy football team (or any kind of crappy team, I guess) the smallest things turn into "not since" stats.  This past basketball season was crammed to the gills with not-since stats, and most of them ended up being Ralph Sampson-related.  Now it's football's turn.  Baby steps first - did you know, the last time UVA was 2-0 in the ACC was 2009?  Frightening, because that season sucked so bad it got a coach fired.  Also frightening, because it means Mike London's never done it.  (In fact, he'd never been so much as 1-0.)

So, for once, the bye week (well, the first of two) comes at a fantastic time: we get to be 2-0 for two whole weeks.  See, fanhood belies the old saying about second place being the first loser.  Nobody really believes that.  If they did, most would find something else to do.  The behavior of fans means we actually subscribe to the notion that it's not the destination, it's the journey.  Winning championships is great, but fanhood is really about the belief that you might do so later.

So, halfway through the season, here we sit with two whole weeks to enjoy a zero.  I can definitely live with that.  I'm perfectly willing to accept that this team could start throwing large crooked numbers into that column pretty quickly, but what keeps you and me and the rest of this fanbase going is that they might not.  And if this sounds like what I wrote last week and maybe the week before that and before that, well, yeah.... because the simple fact that it continues to be the truth is enough to keep the whole program afloat.

Bullety points:

-- UVA is the only Coastal team that got no votes for first place, and Georgia Tech was my own personal choice for dead last.  So of course those are the only two conference-undefeated Coastal teams.  I want us to win for all the obvious reasons but also because the no-first-place-votes thing is funny.

-- A 2-10 team that starts the next season 4-2 is full of surprises, but how about Matt Johns's wheels as one of the biggest?  Even if you take away his 42-yard scamper against Kent State, he's still averaging more yards per carry than any of the running backs, and that's with sacks included.

-- I had enough time during the Miles Gooch WR pass to realize that the pass was headed for Zach Swanson and to think, before it nestled into his hands, "please please catch this one."  Tight End U is not what it once was.  Impressively, that play worked even though the whole damn stadium and every eye on TV knew Gooch was going to pass the ball as soon as it hit his hands.

-- A huge, huge pet peeve of mine is plays like regular options and toss sweeps that go to the short side of the field.  When you're trying to get wide, why cut the play off before it has a chance to develop?  That's entirely on the OC.  On Saturday, one play in particular stood out in this regard - but for once, in a good way.  That was a Kevin Parks pitchout on the second touchdown drive; Parks picked up an extra 5-7 yards because the play went wide side, and it was during those extra yards that he delivered the stiff-arm to Pitt's Terrish Webb that pissed Webb off enough to hand UVA another 15 yards, post-whistle.  Stop going short side, OC's.  You'll thank me.

Edit: I just went back and read my review of this same Pitt game last year, which had nothing nice to say about the offense and deployed Ian Malcolm and triceratops poop.  And the phrase, "God kills a baby angel every time an offensive coordinator runs a toss sweep or option play to the short side of the field."  We can has.... progress from the coaching staff?  I was never as down on Steve Fairchild as most people, but neither was I wildly impressed; regardless, he's really starting to earn his pay these days.

-- I think I'm getting officially disappointed in Taquan Mizzell.  The play just before that one was a screen to Mizzell, and a pretty well-executed one that ought to've picked up the first down and about 12-14 yards.  But Mizzell went the wrong side of Andre Levrone's excellent block, which he's been far too prone to doing.  Smoke'll never be a five-star running back unless he improves his vision.

-- Helmetzz.  I didn't hate them - in fact, they were awfully unobtrusive (though, probably wouldn't have been with the regular blue unis) which made me ask, what's the fuss?  OK, I guess the players like them, they got to see them up close and handle them and all that, but they also generated a lot of "wow, really sharp!" comments on message boards, which I don't get.  They just looked kinda.... there.  The lights set them off, which was kinda cool, probably better than in the daytime, but I don't think anyone would've known these were different unless they looked real close or were told about them.  And no, this is not an entreaty to do something even nuttier and wilder next time.

-- I don't know if "learning to win" is a thing, but if it is, it sure as hell applies to this team.  As in, it's something they'll need to do.  Pitt is a huge maybe of a bowl team and most ACC squads won't let you go dry for the whole second half and walk away with a win.

Prediction review time!

- UVA plays only one quarterback, barring injury or blowout.  True that.  It's getting so we might not ever know when Greyson Lambert's ankle is healed.  Johns is doing awfully well.  He only completed nine passes, which I was shocked to see because the eye test said he played great.  But then, the run-pass balance was incredibly skewed - 43 run plays to 17 pass attempts.  And why not, when Kevin Parks can pile up almost 170 yards?  (Another not-since stat, by the way; the last Hoo RB to top 150 was Ced Peerman in 2008.)  At any rate, Johns might've only completed a handful of passes, but you look, for example, at the swing pass that scored Khalek Shepherd.  Anything other than a perfect, in-stride throw, and UVA is kicking a field goal there.

- James Conner averages between four and five yards a carry.  Dammit, the defense was just slightly better than I gave them credit for; Conner ended up with 3.95.  I could round and call it four, but I won't.

- The UVA passing game generates more than 6.5 yards per attempt.  Thank you, Gooch to Swanson.  And thank you me for remembering I was evaluating the whole matchup and not just one quarterback.  Matt Johns came nowhere near 6.5, but the passing game got a boost to 6.7 thanks to that one trick play.

- The UVA defense gets no more than two non-sack TFLs, matching or setting a new low for the year.  Again I just slightly underestimate the defense, which got three.

- Whoever starts at QB for UVA completes at least 65% of his passes.  Nope.

Two out of five this week, which brings the updated totals to:

13-for-29 on specifics (44.8%)
4-1 straight up
2-1-1 ATS

Lots of bettors watching that two-point conversion, I'm thinking.

Senior Seasons gets pushed to tomorrow.  No game preview this week, duh, so it'll be replaced with a midseason review, being as we have perfect timing for it.