Is it wrong that after the Miami game I wished the spread had been 18.5 instead of 20, so that idiots who were stupid enough to bet on UVA lost their money because we couldn't execute a simple extra point?
As if we didn't already have oh about a thousand data points proving what an undisciplined, fecklessly coached team Mike London has foisted upon our school, extra points turned into a penalty-fest this week. UVA scored three touchdowns and fucked up the extra point on every single one of them - two false starts and a block. And I don't blame special teams coach Larry Lewis for any of them, although one of the false starts was illegal procedure on the snapper. So maybe that one. The first false start was Ross Burbank, and it was Eric Tetlow blown backwards for the block; Burbank is a goddam veteran and should know better.
Then again, six false starts on the day mean there's plenty of that blame to go around. Here we are, 11 games into the season, and that darn elusive snap count is still an unsolved puzzle. 11 games into the season and the quarterback still slings uncatchable frozen ropes to a target two feet above his receiver's head, and has the decision-making power of a welding robot besides. If you believe what you read on message boards, and the writer of this particular nugget has much more credibility than the average blabbermouth, the "read-option" we've been running is called in advance from the sidelines. As in, the hand-or-keep decision. What has looked like stunningly poor decision-making from Watford is actually Watford executing what he's been told in advance - and he apparently has neither the gumption nor authority to override that when the given decision is so obviously a bad one. Whatever goes on at football practice these days, I wouldn't call it "coaching." I believe the preferred nomenclature is "ruining perfectly good football players."
The real shame here is that some really nice individual efforts are being lost in the pit of despair. Anthony Harris's eight picks are an amazing number, even if one of them should've just been batted down. Kevin Parks needs 74 yards to reach 1,000 for the season, and even if he doesn't get there he's already had the best season by a UVA running back since that last 1,000 yard season (Alvin Pearman in 2004.) If he doesn't go 11 yards backwards this week, that is - entirely possible since VT's D-line is a wrecking crew and our O-line is incapable of blocking them.
The season will be at its merciful end in less than a week, in the same sense in which the clock ran out on the Oregon game, and when the team physically walks off the field (after having mentally walked off it two hours ago) to a tiny smattering of boos from the masochists that stayed through that whole mess, we can finally slam the coffin lid shut. I'll then fire off a sarcastic letter to Craig Littlepage and receive a response along the lines of "we feel your pain and rest assured we blah blah fix it blah blah have higher goals for the program blah blah." I'd say we could then bury this pathetic season, but that's not quite true - the rotting stench of its corpse will haunt the program for a few years. Or at least over the summer; I can't picture going into the 2014 season with any optimism as long as Mike London is still making decisions. All there is to look forward to is about a year and two weeks from now when eight more losses have entered themselves in the ledger and some ex-MAC wunderkind is promising to make it all better.
P.S. - Let me just answer a question from a couple weeks ago, regarding which members of this coaching staff I'd retain for some continuity: NONE OF THEM. Not even UVA legend Anthony Poindexter, who's such a good safety coach that fourth-year safety Rijo Walker tried to crash the backfield while a Miami receiver ran straight past him to the end zone - on 1st-and-25. Larry Lewis has markedly improved the special teams, but that wasn't hard given the deplorable job Poindexter did with that unit. Vincent Brown has probably done a better-than-average job, and the linebackers look good under Tenuta. But why retain any of the stench of this season? I'm sure there's a coach or two somewhere that can convince a high-schooler to play here besides Poindexter and Chip West, and then actually teach them to play football too.
This goes for everyone from the head coach on down through the assistants, the S&C crew (which is partially responsible for the fact that our interior O-line gets blown up every other play), and the GAs too.
****************************************************
I made some predictions about this game; let's see if my prognostication skills have recovered from the beating they took the past couple weeks.
-- David Watford has between 29 and 43 completions, giving him his second-most in a game this year. I reserve the right to prorate this out in case of early Greyson Lambert showing. No need to prorate. Watford would've had to attempt 72 passes in order to reach the minimum that I expected.
-- Lambert attempts 10+ passes. He threw 19, and only needed a fraction of them to surpass Watford's miserable yardage output.
-- Dallas Crawford rushes for over 100 yards in Duke Johnson's absence. Crawford ran for only 55, but this seems like as good a time as any to point out that we managed to lose despite running 91 offensive plays to Miami's 52. Brent Urban's return made a difference, but that is also what happens when your offense serves up defensive touchdowns like Halloween candy.
-- Ant Harris gets another interception. Truth.
-- Stephen Morris tops 300 passing yards. No, but he came close-ish with 214, which isn't that close but it is considering he only had 13 completions.
-- Miami scores at least one touchdown of 65 yards or greater, through the air. I'm counting the 62-yarder, because I can.
I go to 22-for-55 on the season, which is exactly 40%. Also 7-4 overall but only 5-5-1 ATS since by some miracle, UVA covered. I'd like it made known that I predicted Miami's score exactly, though.
****************************************************
Remarkably, there are still high school players who want to join this clownshow, and some of them played football this weekend too. Let's catch up on those of our recruits still working their way through the high school playoffs:
Upland 30, Santiago 29: Jeffery Farrar intercepted a pass deep in Santiago territory that set up a touchdown and a 16-3 lead that Upland needed all of in the quarterfinal win.
Dacula 28, Peachtree Ridge 21: Jordan Ellis ran for 132 yards but was held off the scoreboard in Peachtree Ridge's season-ending loss.**
Forest Park 27, Varina 18: Donovan Dowling had a few big catches, but Varina's season ends a little earlier than they're accustomed to.
Central Catholic 49, St. Petersburg Catholic 16 (Caanan Brown)
Oscar Smith 41, Grassfield 7 (Andrew Brown)
Woodgrove 49, Eastern View 7 (J.J. Jackson)
The results this week leave four teams alive, mostly in their respective semifinals. Upland and Woodgrove (the latter in a quarterfinal) will have uphill battles; CCC and Oscar Smith are behemoths that will be expected to continue. And in junior news, Juan Thornhill's Altavista also remains alive.
**I looked this up, and, disappointingly, this team is pronounced "da-CUE-la", not like Dracula minus the R. Ur doin it wrong, Dacula.
****************************************************
On a programming note, this is Thanksgiving weekend. Which means of course that I'm not writing anything on Thursday for you turkeys. I'm pushing the VT game preview all the way up to tomorrow, so that I can wait for the results of the Tuesday basketball game to write a preview for Friday's one. It's our big preseason tournament (such as it is) so it's worth a preview. Not gonna get one for Sunday's game, though. Wednesday's preview and then see you Monday.
Showing posts with label tetlow. Show all posts
Showing posts with label tetlow. Show all posts
Monday, November 25, 2013
Friday, October 25, 2013
game preview: Georgia Tech
Date/Time: Saturday, October 26; 12:30
TV: ACC Net., ESPN3
Record against the Jackets: 17-17-1
Last meeting: GT 56. UVA 20; 9/15/12, Atlanta
Last weekend: Duke 35, UVA 22; GT 56, Cuse 0
Line: GT by 10
Injury reports:
Virginia:
OUT - OL George Adeosun, CB Maurice Canady, CB Demetrious Nicholson, TE Mario Nixon, WR E.J. Scott, DT Brent Urban, S Wil Wahee
DOUBTFUL - WR Kyle Dockins
QUESTIONABLE - G Conner Davis, K Ian Frye, TE Jake McGee
PROBABLE - LB Daquan Romero
Georgia Tech:
OUT - WR Anthony Autry, OL Morgan Bailey, OL Ray Beno, C Freddie Burden, S Jamal Golden, DT Shawn Green, LB Anthony Harrell, OL Errin Joe
DOUBTFUL - None
QUESTIONABLE - None
PROBABLE - None
Yeah, Paul Johnson, I bet you have nobody banged up in the slightest aside from the guys who'll miss the game. Not a single tweaked ankle, twinged shoulder, or sore knee. Somebody is not conforming to the intent of the ACC injury report. Meantime, that is the worst UVA injury report I've ever seen.
It all just makes a tough game tougher. Georgia Tech is always a difficult matchup if your defense isn't well-prepared, and last week is proof they can demolish lousy teams - as if last year's game in Atlanta wasn't proof enough. The road doesn't get any easier after last week, and with the losses piling up it's fair to wonder if this team will find another win all season.
-- UVA run offense vs. GT run defense
Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 131 carries, 560 yards, 4.3 ypc, 8 TDs
Khalek Shepherd: 32 carries, 233 yards, 7.3 ypc, 1 TD
UVA offense:
176.14 yards/game, 4.03 yards/attempt
82nd of 125 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)
GT offense:
124.00 yards/game, 3.98 yards/attempt
57th of 125 (national), 11th of 14 (ACC)
Conner Davis's presence on the injury report is a disturbing sign for the offense; it was his absence in the first place that triggered a lot of the offensive line troubles. Cody Wallace is listed as Davis's backup with Eric Tetlow behind Jay Whitmire on the other side, but keep an eye on this. Wallace was pulled for Tetlow against Pitt, and Tetlow could get the call. The offense would probably run better if so.
Georgia Tech's defense has been somewhat like a chameleon, matching their play to the level of opposition. If the opponent is good, they've gashed the Jackets. If the opponent is lousy, they get shut down. Duke Johnson and Miami absolutely destroyed them; on the other hand, Virginia Tech's running game didn't exist except for what Logan Thomas did. Which wasn't much.
The Jackets just don't get into the backfield much. Nose tackle Adam Gotsis is a nasty customer in this regard with six run-game TFLs this season, but otherwise nobody else has very many, and GT is 110th in the country in TFL. That said, a nasty defensive tackle was all it took for Pitt to destroy UVA's offense, and three-tech tackle Euclid Cummings is good enough that over-doubling Gotsis will probably cost the Hoos.
GT's linebackers can be tough too; there is no particular holy terror but no weak link either, with all three starters - Brandon Watts, Jabari Hunt-Days, and Quayshawn Nealy - all in the team's top four in tackles.
If Davis does play, he'll probably be limited, so I can't express a lot of hope for the line either way. UVA isn't going to find itself totally shut down, but shouldn't expect to move the ball as easily as they did in the first half against Duke, either. The best chance: Watford. GT has shown a tendency to allow yards by a running quarterback, as both Logan Thomas and BYU's Taysom Hill were able to move the ball this way. Watford doesn't keep much on the read option, though. I was brimming with optimism for the run game last week against Duke; their failure to come through combined with injury troubles at guard and another tough DT gives me much less faith, and I can't figure the run game for more than 125 yards or so.
-- UVA pass offense vs. GT pass defense
Quarterback:
David Watford: 148/253, 58.5%; 1,339 yards, 5 TDs, 8 INTs; 5.29 yards/attempt
Top receivers:
Jake McGee: 31 rec., 265 yards, 2 TDs
Kevin Parks: 25 rec., 270 yards, 1 TD
UVA offense:
197.6 yards/game, 5.1 yards/attempt
122nd of 125 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)
GT defense:
203.7 yards/game, 7.3 yards/attempt
75th of 125 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)
Bad news, everyone. We're no longer last in the country in passing! Wonder if it'll matter this week; we've known for a couple weeks now that Jake McGee is banged up even though he didn't show up on the injury report against Duke. The Maryland game made it clear enough. Now listed as questionable, McGee's status is firmly up in the air. I would guess he plays, but we'll see. No McGee would mean a big, big role for Zach Swanson, and, no disrespect to Swanson, but a pretty big detriment to the passing game.
It won't have much effect on the stat sheet, but Kyle Dockins looks very likely to miss the game given his injury report status. Dockins isn't targeted much, but his absence means the coaches will have to dig deeper into the underperforming-veterans well and give more playing time to Tim Smith or Darius Jennings. Any more drops by Jennings and he's going to end up the fanbase's least favorite player; his chronic case of stone hands this season has been one of the year's most frustrating developments.
Defensively, Tech brings a solid pass rush from Adam Gotsis and defensive end Jeremiah Attaochu, though Attaochu's production on the year is decidedly down from what it was. They present a tough matchup in that their linebackers, Quayshawn Nealy in particular, are good pass defenders. Nealy plays the weak side, though, so won't likely be matched up with McGee much. Brandon Watts on the strong side is less skilled in pass defense, so McGee (or Swanson) should be able to find room. Cornerback Louis Young is the top player in the secondary, and given our receivers' inability to get open, should be a blanket all day.
I think it's fair to upgrade our assessment of our passing game a tick - but only a tick, as Watford is still far too inconsistent and the receivers haven't shown any indication of upgrading their game. If they didn't do it against Duke, I have no idea when they ever will. GT isn't overall a great pass-defense team - the rush is OK, and Young is the only playmaker among the starters in the secondary, though backup safety Chris Milton also has two picks. Logan Thomas, he of the scattershot arm, had a really nice day passing against the Jackets. Tech might present some matchup problems with linebackers who can defend the pass (Nealy may be a problem in trying to get the ball to Kevin Parks) and a pass-rushing DT, but Watford should continue to nudge his trend upwards, even if only slightly.
-- GT run offense against UVA run defense
Top backs:
David Sims: 84 carries, 409 yards, 4.9 ypc, 6 TDs
Zach Laskey: 45 carries, 261 yards, 5.8 ypc, 4 TDs
GT offense:
304.43 yards/game, 5.27 yards/attempt
19th of 125 (national), 3rd of 14 (ACC)
UVA defense:
151.71 yards/game, 3.98 yards/attempt
56th of 125 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)
Each week I've sort of taken to naming which of the four sections of the game should provide the decisive factor. This week it's here, because against GT it's always here. You know the drill about what they do.
Unfortunately, defending it is going to be a son of a bitch this week. We don't have our best DT, so we'll have a tough time holding the middle against the fullback dive part of the option. We're short on options at DE because our run-stopping DE is playing DT (and is a little overmatched there due to size.) Two very solid run-stopping tacklers at CB are out. We do have some high-quality linebackers whose strengths just happen to include play diagnosis - but only two.
Adding to the complication is what Jon Tenuta will do. Remember, Tenuta, despite his past tenure at GT, didn't coach there under the current regime, and so doesn't have any special insight. If I had a time machine I'd go back and watch old NC State-GT games (despite the crossover, Tenuta did coach against the Jackets twice while at NC State) to see what his philosophy was. It didn't work out especially well; Tenuta's defense gave up 28 and 35 points, while the Pack split the crossover series in 2010 and 2011.
If he decides to be Mr. Aggressive as usual, that could pay wicked dividends at times and get him burned super-crispy at others. Blitzing Coley up the middle could help dissuade fullback dives, and sending an OLB or a CB from one side could either flood the area with defenders (good) or leave huge running lanes (bad.) Tech isn't real big on throwing over the middle, so having Anthony Harris filling the middle while Coley finds a gap to get through could be a helpful strategy, especially since the depth at DT is hurting.
Tenuta's going to have to wizard his way through this one, though, and ultimately, GT has a major upper hand here. With so many key personnel out, UVA will be depending on a patchwork of less-experienced players. I think GT will have a ton of success up the middle. I fully expect to get gashed there. If the Hoos can force Vad Lee to keep - he's only averaging three yards a carry - they'll be in better shape, but I don't think they can do that consistently.
-- GT pass offense vs. UVA pass defense
Quarterback:
Vad Lee: 44/99, 44.4%; 846 yards, 8 TDs, 5 INTs; 8.55 yards/attempt
Top receivers:
DeAndre Smelter: 14 rec., 211 yards, 2 TDs
Robert Godhigh: 10 rec., 188 yards, 2 TDs
GT offense:
125.6 yards/game, 7.9 yards/attempt
42nd of 125 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)
UVA defense:
225.9 yards/game, 6.4 yards/attempt
33rd of 125 (national), 6th of 14 (ACC)
You have to give Paul Johnson this: He's incredibly consistent in his pass-offense playcalling. In his first four years as GT coach, his teams attempted 165, 168, 168, and 167 passes. Last year they went all pass-wacky with 194, but this season, Vad Lee is on pace for 170 attempts. Consistency.
I bring up this factoid just because there's very little to talk about in defending GT's passing game. All it takes is a solid cornerback and some discipline at free safety. (That would be really cool if we had Demetrious Nicholson, or even Maurice Canady.) If you have those two things, GT will not be able to throw the ball against you, because they like to wait until you're overplaying the run.
Then again, we might be forced to overplay the run if the assigned defenders can't stop it. Plus, this season, GT is actually spreading the ball between WRs a little more than they used to, when in the past they would have one big dude making all the plays and the second WR would just be a very fast, very widely split offensive tackle. And then some occasional throws to the RBs. This year, DeAndre Smelter has 14 catches, but Darren Waller has 10. Both are very, very tall in the usual Paul Johnson mold; Smelter is 6'3" and Waller 6'5". Ordinarily this would not be a bad game to break in Tim Harris in his first game as a starter, but Harris may be tested a few times, particularly given his inexperience.
Lee, however, has not been the more-accurate passer he was advertised to be, connecting on only 44% of his passes. And UVA has, with just a few ugly exceptions, defended the pass rather well. If GT beats us, it won't be through the air.
-- Favorability ratings
UVA run offense: 3.5
UVA pass offense: 4
UVA run defense: 1.5
UVA pass defense: 6
Average: 3.75
That said, it'd really be fairer if I half-weighted the pass defense and double-weighted the run defense.
-- Outlook
Here's the recipe for beating Georgia Tech's offense. You need:
-- a really good defensive tackle that can command a double team and even slash into the backfield, to discourage the fullback dive part of the option
-- defensive ends that are both disciplined and able to hold the edge against a blocker
-- a cornerback that sticks like glue
-- a free safety you trust implicitly
-- linebackers who can fill gaps ASAP and move side-to-side with ease.
We have one out of five. We would have four out of five if not for injuries. This is not a good omen.
-- Prediction summary
-- The UVA running game fails to top 125 yards.
-- David Watford again tops 6 yards a pass. Progress. Baby steps.
-- Both David Sims and Zach Laskey have 100+ yard rushing days.
-- No GT receiver has a catch of 30 yards or more, unless it's mostly YAC. (This represents success in one realm of the matchup, at least.)
Final score: GT 35, UVA 17
-- Rest of the ACC
Wake Forest @ Miami - 12:00 - A likely rout, but then, that's what I thought Maryland would do to the Deacs last week.
Pittsburgh @ Navy - 1:00 - I labeled Pitt the worst team in the Coastal and they're two wins from eligibility; probably one win after this week.
NC State @ Florida State - 3:30 - The Pack have occasionally had the magic touch against FSU, but not this year.
Clemson @ Maryland - 3:30 - The Terps will have other chances at bowl eligibility, but it won't be this week, and being rolled for the second week in a row - not to mention losing their whole receiving corps to injury - could send them into a death spiral.
Boston College @ North Carolina - 3:30 - I picked BC to go to a bowl this year when nobody else would, and even I didn't figure they'd be the only team in this matchup with a conference win.
Duke @ Virginia Tech - 3:30 - Semi-unstoppable force meets immovable object when Duke has the ball. Wet noodle meets half-eaten jelly roll otherwise.
Bye: Syracuse, busy licking their GT-induced wounds.
Sunday, September 22, 2013
hamm it up
Everybody loves a good Cinderella story. And I love watching dominant running backs. That makes Daniel Hamm the obvious topic du jour.
If you'd ever heard of Hamm, you are a teammate, a relation, or lying. His existence flew under every radar that's tuned on Charlottesville. He doesn't have an entry in most recruiting databases and he never received any scholarship offers to speak of, not in football. He showed up on the field and people probably tried to remember if Khalek Shepherd wore #22 or some other number, until his name was announced. Now his name is on all the headlines.
You have to admit, that's pretty cool. It might be for just this one week, and might've only been VMI, but the entry in the record book is just as permanent as any other. And it made something interesting out of an uninteresting game.
Also, it leaves some questions, or at least, one big one. Namely, does this mean we have a new running back? Well, the quality of competition looms large over everything positive we can say about Hamm's future. Except for the first couple drives, VMI had no chance against the blocking, and Hamm always had a hole to run through. When he broke a tackle, it always came with the question as to whether a player on a better team would've brought him down; when he ran past someone, you always wondered if another team's players would've been faster. There's no way UVA's running game will generate 357 yards again this year.
Even so, a couple things look to be really in Hamm's favor here. First and probably foremost, it's got to be really bad news for Kye Morgan, hasn't it? That Khalek Shepherd and Taquan Mizzell are both hurt, and the next guy out is a true freshman walk-on, instead of Morgan who redshirted last season - that's a surprise. Morgan's got more than three-and-a-half seasons left in his career, so it's not like you just write him off, but what didn't he show last year?
As for Hamm himself, some of those runs - particularly, I thought, his second TD run - were nice runs regardless of opponent. He looked strong in his running. Some of the holes he hit weren't very big, and the truth is, a lot of guys might have considered them too small and stepped around them, looking for a home run elsewhere. And against most teams, that's how you run for two yards. Hamm was content to take the five-to-seven and come back and do it again. There's only one Barry Sanders, so give me the north-south, workhorse stuff all day long. I loved watching a guy who would - oh, fuck it, Hammer the defense - carry after carry.
Whether Hamm has or will unseat Shepherd or Mizzell this season, nobody can say except those who aren't telling. Whether that performance will translate to success against actual opponents, nobody can say at all. But I'm looking forward to finding out.
Other stuff in short:
-- That was the good story of the offense. The bad story: the passing game. The numbers are good but the eye test was definitely not. So many of those yards were YAC, and not like with Mike Rocco where the YAC was often the result of a very well-timed ball. Watford threw a swing pass behind Kevin Parks and Parks was still able to pick up a ton of yardage; no ACC team will let that happen.
Watford's interceptions were the result of locking in on a receiver to absurd extremes. Especially the first. Some blame goes to Miles Gooch for running his route and then stopping, but he was so thoroughly covered that Watford had no business throwing that thing at all. Watford had some nice throws, too - the one to Tim Smith for a touchdown was gorgeous. Both his touchdown throws, actually, were excellent. Even then, he was watching nobody but Smith all the way. Until he learns to go through his second read he's not going to be a productive QB.
It would help if his receivers gave him a little assistance. Gooch has been mentioned; Dominique Terrell was also guilty at least once. Watford was scrambling and Terrell ran to a point on the field and simply stopped moving. I can't believe this only happened the two times I noticed it. Marques Hagans has got to impress on these guys that the route doesn't stop where the little arrow ends up. Of all former quarterbacks - a guy who kept a ton of plays alive with his feet - he ought to know this best.
-- I love the defense, though. When the announcers talked about how VMI had us "on the ropes" in the first quarter, well, OK, the offense didn't produce, but the VMI offense gained 15 yards the whole quarter. I mean, come on. The defense just crushed the fightin' Vimmies. No contest. If the offense had played as good a game as the defense it would've been 105-0. I'm not going back through the annals to find out the last time UVA allowed so few yards (79) but the notes tell us that they allowed 84 to Akron in 2004. So it goes back further than that. I would go so far as to say that even with as bad as VMI is, the defense outperformed expectations.
Time for a prediction review:
-- Mizzell and Shepherd combine for at least five more carries than Parks. The point here was that Parks was going to get a nice light day, maybe not show up in the second half. I could null it out since nobody knew about their injuries, but I'm giving it to myself, actually, because Hamm by himself had four more carries and then the fourth quarter was turned over to the backups.
-- Watford averages 10 yards per attempt, enough to double his seasonal passing yards if allowed to throw 28 times. He was at 8.2, which isn't enough for this.
-- At least five new redshirts are burned, two on the O-line. The grand total is seven: Hamm is one, along with LaChaston Smith, Eric Tetlow, Sadiq Olanrewaju, Eric Smith, Max Valles, and Donte Wilkins. Most are defensible; LaChaston Smith is the one I have to question. That hurdle was cool, but couldn't Morgan have just gotten those carries? Five deep is plenty. It's doubly screwy because of the very strong possibility that Smith might move to a whole new position eventually.
The rest are fine. I actually saw someone complaining that Hamm's redshirt had been burned. Lordy. You wouldn't have known he was even remotely good if you'd gotten your way. Besides, Hamm is a walk-on; it's exceedingly wrong to essentially tell a walk-on "for the good of the team we're going to ask you to pay your very expensive way for a fifth year." The offensive linemen almost had to play; the first-stringers can't take every snap of the season. And we'll almost certainly see more of Wilkins, too.
-- Defensive tackles account for at least two sacks. No, but they still dominated.
-- So does Eli Harold. No, but Trent Corney did, probably against VMI's second-string tackle, although I didn't look to see.
-- Urban bats down at least two passes. There was actually a lot of very good pressure on Eric Kordenbrock, but VMI did a nice job of keeping his release time short.
I only get two of six, which adds up to 6-for-16 on the year. Full game prediction, with a win against the spread and a gimme on the straight-up, makes me 2-1 and 2-1 ATS.
We'll cover the rest of the ACC as part of tomorrow's weekend review.
If you'd ever heard of Hamm, you are a teammate, a relation, or lying. His existence flew under every radar that's tuned on Charlottesville. He doesn't have an entry in most recruiting databases and he never received any scholarship offers to speak of, not in football. He showed up on the field and people probably tried to remember if Khalek Shepherd wore #22 or some other number, until his name was announced. Now his name is on all the headlines.
You have to admit, that's pretty cool. It might be for just this one week, and might've only been VMI, but the entry in the record book is just as permanent as any other. And it made something interesting out of an uninteresting game.
Also, it leaves some questions, or at least, one big one. Namely, does this mean we have a new running back? Well, the quality of competition looms large over everything positive we can say about Hamm's future. Except for the first couple drives, VMI had no chance against the blocking, and Hamm always had a hole to run through. When he broke a tackle, it always came with the question as to whether a player on a better team would've brought him down; when he ran past someone, you always wondered if another team's players would've been faster. There's no way UVA's running game will generate 357 yards again this year.
Even so, a couple things look to be really in Hamm's favor here. First and probably foremost, it's got to be really bad news for Kye Morgan, hasn't it? That Khalek Shepherd and Taquan Mizzell are both hurt, and the next guy out is a true freshman walk-on, instead of Morgan who redshirted last season - that's a surprise. Morgan's got more than three-and-a-half seasons left in his career, so it's not like you just write him off, but what didn't he show last year?
As for Hamm himself, some of those runs - particularly, I thought, his second TD run - were nice runs regardless of opponent. He looked strong in his running. Some of the holes he hit weren't very big, and the truth is, a lot of guys might have considered them too small and stepped around them, looking for a home run elsewhere. And against most teams, that's how you run for two yards. Hamm was content to take the five-to-seven and come back and do it again. There's only one Barry Sanders, so give me the north-south, workhorse stuff all day long. I loved watching a guy who would - oh, fuck it, Hammer the defense - carry after carry.
Whether Hamm has or will unseat Shepherd or Mizzell this season, nobody can say except those who aren't telling. Whether that performance will translate to success against actual opponents, nobody can say at all. But I'm looking forward to finding out.
Other stuff in short:
-- That was the good story of the offense. The bad story: the passing game. The numbers are good but the eye test was definitely not. So many of those yards were YAC, and not like with Mike Rocco where the YAC was often the result of a very well-timed ball. Watford threw a swing pass behind Kevin Parks and Parks was still able to pick up a ton of yardage; no ACC team will let that happen.
Watford's interceptions were the result of locking in on a receiver to absurd extremes. Especially the first. Some blame goes to Miles Gooch for running his route and then stopping, but he was so thoroughly covered that Watford had no business throwing that thing at all. Watford had some nice throws, too - the one to Tim Smith for a touchdown was gorgeous. Both his touchdown throws, actually, were excellent. Even then, he was watching nobody but Smith all the way. Until he learns to go through his second read he's not going to be a productive QB.
It would help if his receivers gave him a little assistance. Gooch has been mentioned; Dominique Terrell was also guilty at least once. Watford was scrambling and Terrell ran to a point on the field and simply stopped moving. I can't believe this only happened the two times I noticed it. Marques Hagans has got to impress on these guys that the route doesn't stop where the little arrow ends up. Of all former quarterbacks - a guy who kept a ton of plays alive with his feet - he ought to know this best.
-- I love the defense, though. When the announcers talked about how VMI had us "on the ropes" in the first quarter, well, OK, the offense didn't produce, but the VMI offense gained 15 yards the whole quarter. I mean, come on. The defense just crushed the fightin' Vimmies. No contest. If the offense had played as good a game as the defense it would've been 105-0. I'm not going back through the annals to find out the last time UVA allowed so few yards (79) but the notes tell us that they allowed 84 to Akron in 2004. So it goes back further than that. I would go so far as to say that even with as bad as VMI is, the defense outperformed expectations.
Time for a prediction review:
-- Mizzell and Shepherd combine for at least five more carries than Parks. The point here was that Parks was going to get a nice light day, maybe not show up in the second half. I could null it out since nobody knew about their injuries, but I'm giving it to myself, actually, because Hamm by himself had four more carries and then the fourth quarter was turned over to the backups.
-- Watford averages 10 yards per attempt, enough to double his seasonal passing yards if allowed to throw 28 times. He was at 8.2, which isn't enough for this.
-- At least five new redshirts are burned, two on the O-line. The grand total is seven: Hamm is one, along with LaChaston Smith, Eric Tetlow, Sadiq Olanrewaju, Eric Smith, Max Valles, and Donte Wilkins. Most are defensible; LaChaston Smith is the one I have to question. That hurdle was cool, but couldn't Morgan have just gotten those carries? Five deep is plenty. It's doubly screwy because of the very strong possibility that Smith might move to a whole new position eventually.
The rest are fine. I actually saw someone complaining that Hamm's redshirt had been burned. Lordy. You wouldn't have known he was even remotely good if you'd gotten your way. Besides, Hamm is a walk-on; it's exceedingly wrong to essentially tell a walk-on "for the good of the team we're going to ask you to pay your very expensive way for a fifth year." The offensive linemen almost had to play; the first-stringers can't take every snap of the season. And we'll almost certainly see more of Wilkins, too.
-- Defensive tackles account for at least two sacks. No, but they still dominated.
-- So does Eli Harold. No, but Trent Corney did, probably against VMI's second-string tackle, although I didn't look to see.
-- Urban bats down at least two passes. There was actually a lot of very good pressure on Eric Kordenbrock, but VMI did a nice job of keeping his release time short.
I only get two of six, which adds up to 6-for-16 on the year. Full game prediction, with a win against the spread and a gimme on the straight-up, makes me 2-1 and 2-1 ATS.
We'll cover the rest of the ACC as part of tomorrow's weekend review.
Thursday, June 20, 2013
the recruit: Steven Moss
Name: Steven Moss
Position: OG
Hometown: Fredericksburg
School: Chancellor
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 275
24/7: 91, four stars; #14 OG, VA #8, US #215
ESPN: 80, four stars; #18 OG, VA #13, Atl. #44
Rivals: 5.9, four stars; #6 OG, VA #7, US #100
Scout: four stars; #9 OT
Other offers: Oklahoma, Florida State, Virginia Tech, South Carolina, Penn State, Arkansas, Tennessee, North Carolina, Clemson, Auburn, West Virginia, Miami, NC State, Illinois, Maryland, Syracuse, Boston College, Connecticut, Wake Forest
UVA's class of 2014 seems to be shaping up as a mix between the very heavily and very lightly recruited. Quin Blanding was the first to hop aboard; the next was Steven Moss, not much less-recruiting than Blanding. Few things make me happier in a recruiting class than a stockpile of top offensive linemen. With occasional exceptions, Al Groh's OL recruiting at its best was characterized by one major star and then a few fill-ins around that.
Mike London has done a better job stockpiling depth; even so, Moss is the highest-ranked OL he's pulled in so far. Moss had offers from such luminaries as FSU, Oklahoma, and a myriad of SEC schools, but he was already halfway into UVA's pocket by the time the 2013 class put ink to paper. Like Blanding, it didn't take him long to make things semi-official and shut down his recruiting.
What makes Moss's ratings so interesting is that he's being rated as a guard. Obviously, as you can see above, he's not the #1 guard in the country by any stretch, but still: ratings that high are usually found in tackles, not guards. Moss projects rather heavily as an interior lineman. He's powerfully built and multiple websites - ESPN and Scout, particularly - praise his strength and mean streak. The positives listed on Scout's profile are "aggressiveness," "drive blocking," and "nasty streak," which are all pretty much related to each other.
His footwork and athleticism come in for some scrutiny. 24/7 says he's "athletic enough to play right tackle in college," which can be read as code for "but not left tackle," and then they go on to say he'd be a better guard. And while there have been assessments that say good things about his footwork and movement, he also went to Rivals' camp in Chicago, and, to hear folks there tell it, got owned. The drills at these camps are generally tailored toward OT-type skills, and Moss didn't really hang with the elite pass-rushers there. Lateral quickness was said to be an issue. (That said, we're really talking elite here. The Andrew Browns of the world and such. That the best of the best beat Moss in a few drills doesn't make him a sudden two-star.)
Moss's size also leans him toward guard. While he's listed at 6'5", usually, there are also places that say 6'4", which is to say he's probably on the shorter end. Which is another check in the OG box. 275 pounds is running a little light as well, but I'm actually pretty encouraged by that. If scouts are saying such awe-inspired things about his strength and power and he's sitting there about 20 pounds lighter than your average college lineman, that can only mean good things when he puts the weight on.
So let's say, what with his size, straight-line power, and questions about his footwork and quickness that ESPN has raised and the Rivals camp seemed to confirm, that Moss is a near-lock for offensive guard. The post-spring depth chart lists two seniors at guard; the top backups are junior Conner Davis and redshirt freshman Ryan Doull. Davis will graduate after Moss's freshman year, which presumably will be a redshirt year as there's sufficient depth (Sean Karl is listed at guard, and I would figure, for now, on Jack McDonald and Eric Tetlow starting out at guard too) to let it happen. Moss, though, could prove to be very tough compeition for that gang. By 2015, when Moss is (probably) a redshirt freshman, I'm not sure there'll be anyone on the roster so experienced that Moss can't overtake them, if by then he's been living up to his recruiting credentials.
************************************************
A couple things need pointing out:
-- Mike Tobey deserves at least a golf clap for making the Team USA U-19 roster for this summer's U-19 world championship. Did the fact that Tony Bennett is an assistant coach for that team have any hand in that? Maayyyybe. It could have. Some might certainly suggest it. He's not the guy with final authority, though.
-- This just in from the And They Call Us France Department: Virginia Tech perfume. The jokes, they write themselves.
-- Andrew Brown is going to announce his college choice on June 29. All signs point to good news.
Position: OG
Hometown: Fredericksburg
School: Chancellor
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 275
24/7: 91, four stars; #14 OG, VA #8, US #215
ESPN: 80, four stars; #18 OG, VA #13, Atl. #44
Rivals: 5.9, four stars; #6 OG, VA #7, US #100
Scout: four stars; #9 OT
Other offers: Oklahoma, Florida State, Virginia Tech, South Carolina, Penn State, Arkansas, Tennessee, North Carolina, Clemson, Auburn, West Virginia, Miami, NC State, Illinois, Maryland, Syracuse, Boston College, Connecticut, Wake Forest
UVA's class of 2014 seems to be shaping up as a mix between the very heavily and very lightly recruited. Quin Blanding was the first to hop aboard; the next was Steven Moss, not much less-recruiting than Blanding. Few things make me happier in a recruiting class than a stockpile of top offensive linemen. With occasional exceptions, Al Groh's OL recruiting at its best was characterized by one major star and then a few fill-ins around that.
Mike London has done a better job stockpiling depth; even so, Moss is the highest-ranked OL he's pulled in so far. Moss had offers from such luminaries as FSU, Oklahoma, and a myriad of SEC schools, but he was already halfway into UVA's pocket by the time the 2013 class put ink to paper. Like Blanding, it didn't take him long to make things semi-official and shut down his recruiting.
What makes Moss's ratings so interesting is that he's being rated as a guard. Obviously, as you can see above, he's not the #1 guard in the country by any stretch, but still: ratings that high are usually found in tackles, not guards. Moss projects rather heavily as an interior lineman. He's powerfully built and multiple websites - ESPN and Scout, particularly - praise his strength and mean streak. The positives listed on Scout's profile are "aggressiveness," "drive blocking," and "nasty streak," which are all pretty much related to each other.
His footwork and athleticism come in for some scrutiny. 24/7 says he's "athletic enough to play right tackle in college," which can be read as code for "but not left tackle," and then they go on to say he'd be a better guard. And while there have been assessments that say good things about his footwork and movement, he also went to Rivals' camp in Chicago, and, to hear folks there tell it, got owned. The drills at these camps are generally tailored toward OT-type skills, and Moss didn't really hang with the elite pass-rushers there. Lateral quickness was said to be an issue. (That said, we're really talking elite here. The Andrew Browns of the world and such. That the best of the best beat Moss in a few drills doesn't make him a sudden two-star.)
Moss's size also leans him toward guard. While he's listed at 6'5", usually, there are also places that say 6'4", which is to say he's probably on the shorter end. Which is another check in the OG box. 275 pounds is running a little light as well, but I'm actually pretty encouraged by that. If scouts are saying such awe-inspired things about his strength and power and he's sitting there about 20 pounds lighter than your average college lineman, that can only mean good things when he puts the weight on.
So let's say, what with his size, straight-line power, and questions about his footwork and quickness that ESPN has raised and the Rivals camp seemed to confirm, that Moss is a near-lock for offensive guard. The post-spring depth chart lists two seniors at guard; the top backups are junior Conner Davis and redshirt freshman Ryan Doull. Davis will graduate after Moss's freshman year, which presumably will be a redshirt year as there's sufficient depth (Sean Karl is listed at guard, and I would figure, for now, on Jack McDonald and Eric Tetlow starting out at guard too) to let it happen. Moss, though, could prove to be very tough compeition for that gang. By 2015, when Moss is (probably) a redshirt freshman, I'm not sure there'll be anyone on the roster so experienced that Moss can't overtake them, if by then he's been living up to his recruiting credentials.
************************************************
A couple things need pointing out:
-- Mike Tobey deserves at least a golf clap for making the Team USA U-19 roster for this summer's U-19 world championship. Did the fact that Tony Bennett is an assistant coach for that team have any hand in that? Maayyyybe. It could have. Some might certainly suggest it. He's not the guy with final authority, though.
-- This just in from the And They Call Us France Department: Virginia Tech perfume. The jokes, they write themselves.
-- Andrew Brown is going to announce his college choice on June 29. All signs point to good news.
Wednesday, February 20, 2013
the recruit: Eric Tetlow
Name: Eric Tetlow
Position: OL
Hometown: Richmond
School: Mills Godwin
Height: 6'6"
Weight: 300
24/7: 82, three stars; #108 OT, VA #38
ESPN: 79, three stars; #41 OT, VA #23, Atl. #69
Rivals: 5.5, three stars
Scout: two stars; #122 OT
Other offers: Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, Arizona State, Maryland, Purdue, Boston College, South Florida, Navy, East Carolina, Temple
Two Signing Day commitments necessitate two more recruit profiles before the series wraps up for the 2013 class. In the summer, UVA looked pretty set at O-line after taking commitments from Sadiq Olanrewaju, Jack McDonald, and Brad Henson; then some cracks in the depth appeared, most notably the loss of Tim Cwalina to a heart condition, and the coaches started looking around again. This was even before Henson decommitted; when that happened, the staff went into O-line overdrive.
Tetlow was one of the first guys they reached out to after Henson left; he had been recruited by UVA during the cycle, but was never offered, and committed to Wake Forest in November. The first time around, he said thanks but no thanks; that was just before Christmas.
But it so happens Tetlow is one of those guys who's picking a school and not just a football team. And he wants to study engineering, which is a very, very tall task for an athlete. Even one with a 3.9 GPA. It's even harder to do at a liberal arts school like Wake Forest. Tetlow would've had to do some convoluted distance-learning stuff through some other school and the more he thought about that, the less appealing it must have sounded. So literally in the middle of the night before Signing Day, he called the Wake and UVA coaches and made the switch. A very nice surprise for UVA fans; I don't envy making that phone call, though.
Tetlow's ratings are all over the map a little bit, but that's not too surprising. Mid-level offensive linemen tend to be that way more often than not. His offer list is OK and about matches the ratings. But what he's got going for him is being the biggest guy in the O-line class. The only other players already at 300 pounds are defensive guys. ESPN says "strong" and "strength" a few times in their assessment and sums him up as a guy who can run-block very well and has the physical tools to add pass-blocking to that repertoire.
Right now on the depth chart I've got Tetlow as a tackle, since that's sort of the default for incoming freshmen unless guard looks obvious. But I'm thinking Sean Cascarano as a comparison here. Cascarano could be a tackle if we needed it, and probably a good one. The reason he's not is named Morgan Moses and the other reason is named Oday Aboushi; he basically got pushed inside by players even better suited to tackle than he is. Tetlow's very similar. He's got the height and long arms for tackle and he's very smart, I don't doubt he can get the footwork down. But his run-blocking appears well ahead of his pass-blocking (the latter of which you don't learn anything about in his highlights because his opponents don't have any moves at all)** and the chances are that this class (and maybe the next one) hold players better suited to tackle than Tetlow. Olanrewaju is an obvious candidate, and George Adeosun blew up so damn fast it's hard not to see tackle potential with him as well.
So I think the ultimate move will be inside to guard. A smart engineering student like Tetlow might be a center candidate, but we have to wait and see on that. I suspect we won't learn much at all his first year, really, as I expect the coaches to do a fair amount of experimenting on him. If he's a guard, the path to playing time is a little more open than at tackle and his redshirt freshman year could see him on the field, with a very legitimate shot at starting by his third year in the program.
**Also, Tetlow has a website, on which is an amusing picture of a relatively clean Tetlow pass-blocking for a quarterback whose every inch of his uniform is caked with mud. Yes yes a zillion extenuating circumstances, not least of which is that there are four other pass-blockers not headed to BCS-level football, and it is in no way a reflection of Tetlow's skills, but it's still a funny commentary on the pass-blocking when the quarterback looks like a walking mud bath.
Position: OL
Hometown: Richmond
School: Mills Godwin
Height: 6'6"
Weight: 300
24/7: 82, three stars; #108 OT, VA #38
ESPN: 79, three stars; #41 OT, VA #23, Atl. #69
Rivals: 5.5, three stars
Scout: two stars; #122 OT
Other offers: Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, Arizona State, Maryland, Purdue, Boston College, South Florida, Navy, East Carolina, Temple
Two Signing Day commitments necessitate two more recruit profiles before the series wraps up for the 2013 class. In the summer, UVA looked pretty set at O-line after taking commitments from Sadiq Olanrewaju, Jack McDonald, and Brad Henson; then some cracks in the depth appeared, most notably the loss of Tim Cwalina to a heart condition, and the coaches started looking around again. This was even before Henson decommitted; when that happened, the staff went into O-line overdrive.
Tetlow was one of the first guys they reached out to after Henson left; he had been recruited by UVA during the cycle, but was never offered, and committed to Wake Forest in November. The first time around, he said thanks but no thanks; that was just before Christmas.
But it so happens Tetlow is one of those guys who's picking a school and not just a football team. And he wants to study engineering, which is a very, very tall task for an athlete. Even one with a 3.9 GPA. It's even harder to do at a liberal arts school like Wake Forest. Tetlow would've had to do some convoluted distance-learning stuff through some other school and the more he thought about that, the less appealing it must have sounded. So literally in the middle of the night before Signing Day, he called the Wake and UVA coaches and made the switch. A very nice surprise for UVA fans; I don't envy making that phone call, though.
Tetlow's ratings are all over the map a little bit, but that's not too surprising. Mid-level offensive linemen tend to be that way more often than not. His offer list is OK and about matches the ratings. But what he's got going for him is being the biggest guy in the O-line class. The only other players already at 300 pounds are defensive guys. ESPN says "strong" and "strength" a few times in their assessment and sums him up as a guy who can run-block very well and has the physical tools to add pass-blocking to that repertoire.
Right now on the depth chart I've got Tetlow as a tackle, since that's sort of the default for incoming freshmen unless guard looks obvious. But I'm thinking Sean Cascarano as a comparison here. Cascarano could be a tackle if we needed it, and probably a good one. The reason he's not is named Morgan Moses and the other reason is named Oday Aboushi; he basically got pushed inside by players even better suited to tackle than he is. Tetlow's very similar. He's got the height and long arms for tackle and he's very smart, I don't doubt he can get the footwork down. But his run-blocking appears well ahead of his pass-blocking (the latter of which you don't learn anything about in his highlights because his opponents don't have any moves at all)** and the chances are that this class (and maybe the next one) hold players better suited to tackle than Tetlow. Olanrewaju is an obvious candidate, and George Adeosun blew up so damn fast it's hard not to see tackle potential with him as well.
So I think the ultimate move will be inside to guard. A smart engineering student like Tetlow might be a center candidate, but we have to wait and see on that. I suspect we won't learn much at all his first year, really, as I expect the coaches to do a fair amount of experimenting on him. If he's a guard, the path to playing time is a little more open than at tackle and his redshirt freshman year could see him on the field, with a very legitimate shot at starting by his third year in the program.
**Also, Tetlow has a website, on which is an amusing picture of a relatively clean Tetlow pass-blocking for a quarterback whose every inch of his uniform is caked with mud. Yes yes a zillion extenuating circumstances, not least of which is that there are four other pass-blockers not headed to BCS-level football, and it is in no way a reflection of Tetlow's skills, but it's still a funny commentary on the pass-blocking when the quarterback looks like a walking mud bath.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)