It's that time. Football season previews begin now. I do this for a couple reasons - it familiarizes me with the conference, which is handy when you're trying to sound like you know what you're talking about for the rest of the season, but also there's this: I don't think there's another UVA site that goes as far in-depth, so, you the readers of FOV are the most-informed UVA fans around about the ACC. Plus it makes August fly the hell by, because it'll be two weeks til game day and I'll be half done. Anyway, here's Boston College.
Schedule:
8/30: @ Massachusetts
9/5: Pittsburgh (Fri.)
9/13: USC
9/20: Maine
9/27: Colorado State
10/4: BYE
10/11: @ NC State
10/18: Clemson
10/25: @ Wake Forest
11/1: @ Virginia Tech
11/8: Louisville
11/15: BYE
11/22: @ Florida State
11/29: Syracuse
Skip: Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia
2013 results:
Villanova: W, 24-14
Wake Forest: W, 24-10
USC: L, 35-7
Florida State: L, 48-34
Army: W, 48-27
Clemson: L, 24-14
North Carolina: L, 34-10
Virginia Tech: W, 34-27
New Mexico State: W, 48-34
NC State: W, 38-21
Maryland: W, 29-26
Syracuse: L, 34-31
Arizona: L, 42-19 (Independence Bowl)
Record: 7-6, 4th (Atlantic)
Projected starters:
QB: Tyler Murphy (5Sr.)
RB: Myles Willis (So.)
FB: Bobby Wolford (rSo.)
WR: Bobby Swigert (5Sr.)
WR: Shakim Phillips (5Sr.)
TE: Louis Addazio (rJr.)
LT: Seth Betancourt (5Sr.)
LG: Bobby Vardaro (5Sr.)
C: Andy Gallik (5Sr.)
RG: Harris Williams (5Sr.)
RT: Ian Silberman (5Sr.)
DE: Brian Mihalik (Sr.)
DT: Mehdi Abdesmad (Sr.)
DT: Connor Wujciak (rJr.)
DE: Kevin Kavalec (So.)
SLB: Josh Keyes (Jr.)
MLB: Sean Duggan (Sr.)
WLB: Steven Daniels (Jr.)
CB: Manny Asprilla (Sr.)
CB: Bryce Jones (Jr.)
SS: Dominique Williams (5Sr.)
FS: Sean Sylvia (5Sr.)
K: Mike Knoll (Fr.)
P: Alex Howell (Sr.)
(Italics indicate new starter.)
Coach: Steve Addazio (2nd season)
Media prediction: 6th of 7, Atlantic
All-ACC:
2013 1st team: RB Andre Williams, LB Kevin Pierre-Louis, K Nate Freese
2013 2nd team: OT Matt Patchan
2013 3rd team: WR Alex Amidon, C Andy Gallik, DE Kasim Edebali
2013 HM: OT Ian White
2014 preseason: C Andy Gallik
(Italics indicate departed player.)
This is a good optimistic note to start the season previews with: proof that there's precedent for going from 2-10 to a bowl game in one season. And if UVA can't quite pull that off, proof that a new coach can make a world of difference. Steve Addazio parlayed a 13-11 record at Temple into a promotion to BC, and whatever he's doing seems to work. Nobody (well, almost nobody) thought they'd find their way to the postseason, but there they were, finishing the regular season on a hot streak and with a 7-5 record.
This year the odds seem just as long. Picked 6th by the media, there may be good reason for that as BC took multiple body blows in the attrition department. They're left with clumps of good players in some places, but other units have been utterly decimated. Addazio hit a major sophomore slump in his second year at Temple, and has a major challenge here to avoid another one.
-- Offense
Let's start with the one major positive: an interior line that most teams would kill for. A trio of fifth-year seniors with a combined 74 career starts anchors the whole offense here. Center Andy Gallik is a Rimington watch-lister and the media's preseason choice for top center in the ACC. Bobby Vardaro, now a fifth-year senior, is entering his fourth year as a starter at left guard, and the Eagles really liked RG Harris Williams going into last year and he did not disappoint. Whoever lands the job as top running back will have a field day, or 12 of them really, running behind that line. There'll be a battle at tackle, however; the lead spots for now likely belong to last year's backup LT, Seth Betancourt, and Florida grad student transfer Ian Silberman, but the Eagles also look to redshirt sophomore Jim Cashman and senior Dave Bowen to provide competition.
Running back is just one of many position battles on the offensive side. Bowling ball back Myles Willis has a chance to be a really good one, having had a solid season as Andre Williams's primary backup last year, carrying 60 times for 346 yards. Tyler Rouse is similarly built and will get his shot as well, and the Eagles bring in a couple of talented freshmen, particularly the highly-sought Jonathan Hilliman. This should be more committee-based than last year when Williams piled up over 2,100 yards and BC was pumping him for the Heisman.
If that seems like a lot of production to replace, though, that's nothing compared to receiver. Alex Amidon caught 77 passes for the Eagles in 2013; the next-highest total on the roster was 14. And the next-highest total for a receiver was 11. Thanks to graduation, transfers, injuries, and position changes, BC has one single receiver on the depth chart who caught a pass in 2013. Suffice to say, depth is a problem. The return of Bobby Swigert should help; Swigert is a capable player, but spent a season and a half on the shelf, so rust will be a problem. BC brought in grad student transfer Shakim Phillips from UConn (Phillips began his career at BC in the first place) and he should find a way pretty quickly to the top of the depth chart after catching 60 passes in two years at UConn. BC will also expect true freshman Thad Smith to play a part, and they return Dan Crimmins (the aforementioned lone returner) and have moved backup QB Josh Bordner to receiver as well. Bordner and Crimmins are huge targets and should be able to help out in the red zone. Long story short, Addazio has managed to piece together a unit that should be reasonably functional, but has a lot to live up to in a hurry.
His quarterback this year will be Tyler Murphy, another former Gator that Addazio had recruited to Gainesville. Murphy is described as a dual threat, but only managed a yard per carry last year. SEC starting experience is a plus; the fact that Florida's offense was startlingly ineffective last year is a minus. Murphy was not bad as a Gator, but the offense didn't move especially well.
Quite a bit depends on Murphy. BC has a foundation on the interior line that's the envy of most of the league, and has weapons in the running game that are unproven but carry plenty of potential. Swigert and Phillips make a passable top pair of receivers. If Murphy can put it all together, BC's offense could surprise. A lot has to go right, and this team is depending on more players than you'd like that are coming off injuries or haven't shown much on the field, but the potential is there, and Addazio has an offensive background and did a very nice job of making it work last year.
-- Defense
Boston College's signature unit lately has been the linebackers; the top three tacklers last year were the three starters at LB. Two of those are gone this year, with the lone returner being Will backer Steven Daniels. Daniels had 88 tackles last year, with 6.5 TFL, a pick, and a forced fumble, and there's no reason to expect he won't be as productive again. On the other side, BC turns to Josh Keyes, who started two games last year and was as maximally productive as you could expect of a fourth 'backer when the first three average over 100 tackles apiece. Sean Duggan will man the middle; he had a very good 2012 season (again, for a reserve) but all but disappeared last year. He may be pushed by true freshman Connor Strachan for playing time, or he may break out and collect 100 tackles of his own.
Up front, there's a lot of turnover. After a pitiful 2012 in which the Eagles collected only six sacks all season, the D-line turned it around last year and became a productive unit. Connor Wujciak returns as a long-time starter; he's a line-clogging, 300-pound DT who'll be joined by Mehdi Abdesmad, who had 17 tackles in only four games before going down for the season with an injury. The Eagles also like sophomore lineman Truman Gutapfel, who played in 10 games last year as a true freshman. That should be a very solid defensive tackle rotation.
End is a little trickier, as no starters return. Brian Mihalik has played well as a veteran reserve and will get a good chance at a starting gig this year; he's started the odd game in the past and has plenty of experience. Nobody else has much, though. Kevin Kavalec got in three games as a true freshman last year and Nick Lifka is a redshirt junior with only a handful of games under his belt. There's an opening for heralded freshman Harold Landry to make an immediate impact. Landry committed to BC early in the 2014 cycle and stuck with it when everyone - OSU, Auburn, FSU, South Carolina, Miami, and a whole host more - tried to pry him away.
Helping with the transitions at linebacker and DE will be a very veteran secondary. Safeties Sean Sylvia and Dominique Williams are both fifth-year seniors with a ton of experience, and both are more than solid players. Cornerbacks Manny Asprilla (also a senior) and junior Bryce Jones picked off two passes each last year and it's fair to expect them each to continue to improve on that production.
BC always relies heavily on its linebackers, and this defense could go a long way if the newcomers to the starting lineup can fill those very large shoes. There's high hopes for Keyes in particular. They'll need once again to find a pass rush and they'll likely ask Keyes and Daniels to play big roles there in order to help out the inexperienced defensive ends. With veteran safeties and DTs, this should be a very stout run defense, and having veteran corners will be a big help when the pass rush isn't up to snuff. But I think this unit will be solid overall.
-- Special teams
Nate Freese was a good enough kicker to actually be drafted (by the Lions, in search of some stability after the retirement of Jason Hanson) and he handled punting duties too, so a big hole is left. True freshman Mike Knoll and senior Alex Howell will be the primary kicking competitors; Howell looks very likely to be the punter, though his experience consists of five kickoffs in three years. Fun fact: Howell is the younger brother of former UVA punter Jimmy Howell.
-- Outlook
The media pegs this team as the 6th-best in the Atlantic Conference.** I'm not convinced it's that desperate. Granted, this is the tougher of the two to win; having FSU, Clemson, and now Louisville on the schedule makes things hard, and it's not any easier since BC crosses over against VT. Their other crossover this year is Pitt, a game they play early and which will serve as a bellwether for the season. Add USC to that and you've got a tough schedule.
However, the Eagles should also be able to find three wins in the OOC with little trouble. VT isn't quite what they were, either, and the Eagles did knock them off last year. (This year, that game is in Blacksburg, though.) BC can certainly go bowling; they probably need to beat three of Pitt, NC State, Wake, Syracuse, and VT to do it. I think they will, and though they're not really contenders for the conference title, I think they outperform their sixth-place finish in the media poll.
**I'm still on my kick of calling these things conferences and not divisions and I will be until they fix this shit. You're not in the same conference as a team you play once every six years. NFC teams play the AFC more often than that. Hell, National League teams play the American League more often than that.
Showing posts with label boston college. Show all posts
Showing posts with label boston college. Show all posts
Saturday, July 26, 2014
Tuesday, April 1, 2014
weekend review
For some reason, I can't quite put my finger on it, I'm not ready to stop talking basketball just yet. I think it rhymes with "flampionships." At the very least it's only fair if I do a postmortem kinda deal on the season, and I think I'll take and review every player the same as they were previewed in the beginning. It should also be interesting to take a look at the ACC once the draft deadline passes later this month.
For now, it's officially the spring season and only the spring season, and spring sports are springing. Lacrosse is trying to, anyway. The 9-6 loss this weekend would not be terribly upsetting if you pretend it wasn't Maryland. Maryland's defense is one of the best in the country, and Niko Amato is a top-flight goalie, so, you'd like to do better when the national title is an every-year goal, but the way things are set up this year it's not a huge surprise what happened. Actually, it wasn't even Maryland's defense that did UVA in; it was their ability to hold onto possession for really long stretches, and UVA's inability to win a faceoff once Maryland figured out the gimmick.
Some bulletized points in brief(ish):
-- I'd just been thinking we hadn't really seen the full Shocker effect this year when LaPierre absolutely leveled a dude while carrying the ball, which went totally unappreciated by the crowd because they might not have been rooting for us. They don't call him the Human Clear for nothing.
-- Despite taking the loss, Matt Barrett played another reasonably solid game. That makes two in a row. Progress. He saved 11 of 20, which is a .550 save percentage, and at least once I remember thinking, "he doesn't make that save a month ago." For the season, he stands at .470. That's still bad, but remember Adam Ghitelman's freshman year saw him land at .497. No, that's not good either, but still.
-- I know I wasn't the only one cheesed off by the announcers blatantly shilling for a shot clock, except doing it in the most passive-aggressive manner possible. What really bugged me was this: UVA spent too long for their tastes passing the ball around, and they practically begged the refs to put the timer on. The refs didn't, UVA shot, Amato saved, and Maryland cleared - and the first thing Eamon Mc-Inane-y said was, "I didn't like that shot. It was too rushed." Now you know why there isn't a shot clock in lacrosse, Eamon.
******************************************************
-- One thing I promise to start doing this week is giving a damn about baseball. Not that I haven't before, but for it being one of my favorite UVA sports, I've written damn near nothing about it. Well, there will be a series preview of Pittsburgh this week. And this past week, they swept up VT as is only fitting. I was about to say customary, but that really hasn't been the way things have gone lately. Despite the huge gap between our two programs, we'd only swept VT twice since 2008.
Joe McCarthy was the ACC player of the week, too; the third such honor for the third different Wahoo this year. Nick Howard won it the week before and Derek Fisher took one home before breaking his hand.
-- Here is an excellent rundown of the various UVA players populating the minor leagues. I used to do this myself at times but why duplicate the effort? And of course, don't forget the five Hoos wearing major league uniforms as of Opening Day: Ryan Zimmerman (Nats), Sean Doolittle (A's), Mark Reynolds (Brewers), Javier Lopez (Giants), and Brandon Guyer (Rays).
-- I was hoping that DeLoss Dodds's retirement at Texas would significantly decrease the douche quotient of the UT administration, but no such luck. Glad to know shipping the players off to Mexico City or Dubai to "grow the Texas brand" is a priority, more so than playing Texas A&M. I want to defend the NCAA in certain things they do but it is really friggin' hard to do when you claim that your purpose is educational, not business, but you won't play a hundred-year-old rivalry because it doesn't make "business sense." And you assholes wonder why the players are trying to unionize.
-- Marquette lost their coach to the ACC, so they went to the ACC for his replacement, luring Steve Wojcie-whatsit away from Duke. You know, Wojo. Let me be neither the first nor the last to make the joke about oh no who will do Coach K's sideline interviews for him now.
-- Boston College is not exactly aiming high in their own coaching search. The two names mentioned in that article coach the Atlantic Sun runner-up (FGCU) and MAC 5th seed (Ohio.) Yeah, both those schools won conference championships lately - and the coaches who did so are now at USC and Illinois. Would it be too much to ask of an ACC school to think a little bigger than a guy whose only foray out of MAC coaching peaked in one CBI bid in four years at TCU? I like Boston College, honestly I do, I've never known anything but good people out of Chestnut Hill, but if the Big Ten cares so much about media markets, maybe we can swap them for Penn State. Step it up, Eagles.
For now, it's officially the spring season and only the spring season, and spring sports are springing. Lacrosse is trying to, anyway. The 9-6 loss this weekend would not be terribly upsetting if you pretend it wasn't Maryland. Maryland's defense is one of the best in the country, and Niko Amato is a top-flight goalie, so, you'd like to do better when the national title is an every-year goal, but the way things are set up this year it's not a huge surprise what happened. Actually, it wasn't even Maryland's defense that did UVA in; it was their ability to hold onto possession for really long stretches, and UVA's inability to win a faceoff once Maryland figured out the gimmick.
Some bulletized points in brief(ish):
-- I'd just been thinking we hadn't really seen the full Shocker effect this year when LaPierre absolutely leveled a dude while carrying the ball, which went totally unappreciated by the crowd because they might not have been rooting for us. They don't call him the Human Clear for nothing.
-- Despite taking the loss, Matt Barrett played another reasonably solid game. That makes two in a row. Progress. He saved 11 of 20, which is a .550 save percentage, and at least once I remember thinking, "he doesn't make that save a month ago." For the season, he stands at .470. That's still bad, but remember Adam Ghitelman's freshman year saw him land at .497. No, that's not good either, but still.
-- I know I wasn't the only one cheesed off by the announcers blatantly shilling for a shot clock, except doing it in the most passive-aggressive manner possible. What really bugged me was this: UVA spent too long for their tastes passing the ball around, and they practically begged the refs to put the timer on. The refs didn't, UVA shot, Amato saved, and Maryland cleared - and the first thing Eamon Mc-Inane-y said was, "I didn't like that shot. It was too rushed." Now you know why there isn't a shot clock in lacrosse, Eamon.
******************************************************
-- One thing I promise to start doing this week is giving a damn about baseball. Not that I haven't before, but for it being one of my favorite UVA sports, I've written damn near nothing about it. Well, there will be a series preview of Pittsburgh this week. And this past week, they swept up VT as is only fitting. I was about to say customary, but that really hasn't been the way things have gone lately. Despite the huge gap between our two programs, we'd only swept VT twice since 2008.
Joe McCarthy was the ACC player of the week, too; the third such honor for the third different Wahoo this year. Nick Howard won it the week before and Derek Fisher took one home before breaking his hand.
-- Here is an excellent rundown of the various UVA players populating the minor leagues. I used to do this myself at times but why duplicate the effort? And of course, don't forget the five Hoos wearing major league uniforms as of Opening Day: Ryan Zimmerman (Nats), Sean Doolittle (A's), Mark Reynolds (Brewers), Javier Lopez (Giants), and Brandon Guyer (Rays).
-- I was hoping that DeLoss Dodds's retirement at Texas would significantly decrease the douche quotient of the UT administration, but no such luck. Glad to know shipping the players off to Mexico City or Dubai to "grow the Texas brand" is a priority, more so than playing Texas A&M. I want to defend the NCAA in certain things they do but it is really friggin' hard to do when you claim that your purpose is educational, not business, but you won't play a hundred-year-old rivalry because it doesn't make "business sense." And you assholes wonder why the players are trying to unionize.
-- Marquette lost their coach to the ACC, so they went to the ACC for his replacement, luring Steve Wojcie-whatsit away from Duke. You know, Wojo. Let me be neither the first nor the last to make the joke about oh no who will do Coach K's sideline interviews for him now.
-- Boston College is not exactly aiming high in their own coaching search. The two names mentioned in that article coach the Atlantic Sun runner-up (FGCU) and MAC 5th seed (Ohio.) Yeah, both those schools won conference championships lately - and the coaches who did so are now at USC and Illinois. Would it be too much to ask of an ACC school to think a little bigger than a guy whose only foray out of MAC coaching peaked in one CBI bid in four years at TCU? I like Boston College, honestly I do, I've never known anything but good people out of Chestnut Hill, but if the Big Ten cares so much about media markets, maybe we can swap them for Penn State. Step it up, Eagles.
Tuesday, February 4, 2014
game preview: Boston College
Date/Time: Wednesday, February 5; 7:00
TV: ESPN2
Record against the Eagles: 9-7
Last meeting: BC 53, UVA 52; 3/3/13, Boston
Last game: UVA 48, Pitt 45 (2/2); ND 76, BC 73 (2/1)
KenPom:
Tempo:
UVA: 62.4 (#340)
BC: 63.3 (#326)
Offense:
UVA: 109.1 (#87)
BC: 112.4 (#40)
Defense:
UVA: 87.0 (#2)
BC: 111.1 (#287)
Pythag:
UVA: .9309 (#8)
BC: .5321 (#151)
Projected lineups:
Virginia:
PG: London Perrantes (4.4 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 3.8 apg)
SG: Malcolm Brogdon (11.8 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 2.2 apg)
SF: Joe Harris (11.5 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.2 apg)
PF: Akil Mitchell (6.8 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 1.3 apg)
C: Mike Tobey (7.6 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 0.4 apg)
Boston College:
PG: Joe Rahon (9.7 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.2 apg)
SG: Olivier Hanlan (17.9 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2.9 apg)
SG: Lonnie Jackson (7.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 2.1 apg)
PF: Eddie Odio (4.9 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 0.8 apg)
PF: Ryan Anderson (15.0 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 1.3 apg)
I'm not gonna spend a lot of time on this because as I said yesterday, I have a to-do list. Tomorrow is Signing Day, which means our annual Signstravaganza. No, you're not getting up-to-the-minute updates because that's not how I roll. Yes, you'll get a pretty in-depth analysis of the class because that is how I roll. Thursday, I want to do a recap of the 2010 class, because I did that last year with 2009 and it was interesting. But Thursday is also the first lacrosse game of the year, so I'd like to maybe preview the team before that happens. Which means I'm gonna do my level best to make that happen tonight. Yup, it's a rare two-posts-in-one-day.
The story for this game is the same as the one for the next six that follow it: We should expect to win, probably need to in order to keep pace with Syracuse for the regular-season title, and regardless of these last two facts, will probably stumble at some point. Partly because math dictates the likelihood (KenPom probabilities give us slightly less than a 1-in-3 chance of slipping through the next seven totally unscathed.) Partly because February is a grind, it's always a grind, and it usually trips everyone up at some point because that's just how the season's dog days are. And partly because I'm still not totally sure if we can have nice things. All this said, if there's a tripping point in the coming month, it's probably not tomorrow night.
-- UVA on offense
Time for some really ugly facts about the opposition. They have six wins all season long. One is against something called Philadelphia University, which I'm assured by the Internet really does exist. Two are against Virginia Tech. BC would be winless in the ACC right now if VT wasn't such a clownshow.
The reason they're so rotten is defense. The Eagles don't seem to know how to play it. They're 287th in the country in defensive efficiency, sandwiched between 8-14 Eastern Illinois and 5-15 Central Arkansas. There's only one team they've held under a point a possession all season long. (I won't tell you who, but the answer's hilarious. And they did it twice.)
Up and down the list of stats that KenPom tracks, there's nothing BC does well. Especially bad: getting turnovers, blocking shots, defending threes. My sneaking suspicion: Teams are smart and know they can just pound the ball inside, as BC allows almost 50% shooting from two. So they do, and only shoot threes when it's a really good look, driving the 3-point shooting percentage close to 38% against the Eagles. That and scorers know they can get to the rim. BC's very low assist rate allowed (44% of buckets are assisted against the Eagles) and high percentage of 2-point shooting allowed suggest that it's fairly easy to break down their defense off the dribble.
Part of the reason for the ease in scoring in the paint is that BC has nothing resembling a center. There's freshman Will Magarity and that's about it, and he never played against Notre Dame in BC's last game. He's not going to be a difference-maker. Teams with centers - you know, like Mike Tobey - abuse BC's laughable post defense because their starting forwards are skinny beanpoles. Ryan Anderson is the biggest at 6'9", 216, meaning Anthony Gill has 15 pounds on him. Eddie Odio is 6'8", 209, and Alex Dragicevich, 6'8", 211. Tobey and Gill should have field days. Akil Mitchell should at a minimum get some putbacks, because the Eagles are cruddy rebounders too. Bottom line: Everyone else scores more or less at will on Boston College, so we should too.
-- UVA on defense
Back in my season preview of the Eagles I wrote what a weird collection of contradictions they are. Tall but lousy rebounders; great free-throw shooters but mediocre-at-best three-point shooting; a 6'8" guard (Dragicevich) but a 6'5" forward (Garland Owens.) Here's another one: BC is terrible at defense but the ACC's fourth-best offensive team, KenPom-wise.
The two brightest spots are Olivier Hanlan and Ryan Anderson. Hanlan's a terrific scorer who really knows how to break down a defender and can fill it from anywhere. Anderson's a very good low-post athlete. Both shoot a lot, both score a lot, and both draw just a ton of fouls.
Add to the mix Joe Rahon, who brings very good complementary scoring as a point guard, and three-point specialist Lonnie Jackson (awful when trying to score from two but a terrific shooter) and BC can hurt you a lot of different ways. They like to shoot threes and would have a really good shooting percentage as a team if they would stop certain players from taking them. (Anderson. And reserve guard Patrick Heckmann has been a better shooter in the past but is having a lousy year in that regard. Hanlan could probably stand to limit his shots somewhat too; his .330 percentage is OK but he leads the team in attempts, and shouldn't.)
BC has six ACC losses but has kept it close in basically all of them, even the 11-pointer to UNC and the 10-pointer to Syracuse, because they have a tendency to go on a run that nullifies their poor defense. They even led Cuse 51-46 after 30 minutes before the Orange got their act together and finished the game 23-8.
So as derelict as BC's defense is, their offense can almost keep up, making them at least a little dangerous. And they play nice and slow, as much so as UVA, which keeps games from getting out of hand. It's not like Tony Bennett will be jacking up the pace, so there'll be an onus on the defense to force Hanlan into volume shooting and take advantage of BC's lousy rebounding - one shot only.
-- Outlook
Ist das nicht un crappy team? Ja, das ist un crappy team. But the Hoos must be extra careful not to suffer a letdown. It's the classic time for it. If they don't, things will go just fine. The pack-line should shut down the Eagle offense at least just enough to let our own offense jump out to a lead. It's OK to be confident; the last time I thought we might be in for a potential letdown, the Hoos ground out a 20-pointer over Tech. I expect a similar boring blowout.
Final score: UVA 67, BC 53
Tuesday, December 10, 2013
season preview: Boston College
Media prediction: 8th of 15
Last season:
Record: 16-17 (7-11); ACC 8th seed
Postseason: none
KenPom: 96th of 347
Returning scoring: 96.3%
Returning rebounding: 95.3%
Returning assists: 97.5%
2012-2013 all-ACC:
1st team: none
2nd team: none
3rd team: Ryan Anderson
HM: none
Defensive: none
Rookie: Olivier Hanlan
(Italics indicate departed player.)
Starting lineup:
PG: Joe Rahon (So.)
SG: Olivier Hanlan (So.)
G: Alex Dragicevich (rJr.)
SF: Eddie Odio (Jr.)
PF: Ryan Anderson (Jr.)
Bench:
G Lonnie Jackson (Jr.)
F Garland Owens (Fr.)
G Patrick Heckmann (Jr.)
F Will Magarity (Fr.)
C KC Caudill (Jr.)
G Danny Rubin (Sr.)
Coach: Steve Donahue (4th season)
ACC schedule:
Twice: Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Virginia Tech
Once: Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Maryland, Miami, North Carolina, NC State, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Wake Forest
Time to kick off (or maybe, more appropriately, tip off) the basketball previews. We start with one of the more interesting cases. Boston College is a program still finding its way after a visit to the very depths of awfulness. It's the fourth season of Steve Donahue's program and I still can't find a way to introduce the Eagles without mentioning the Al Skinner disaster, but it's still a dominant theme (although no longer the dominant theme) of the state of this team.
Actually, despite the losing record, it wasn't a half bad season for the Eagles in 2013. They finished with the ACC 8th seed in the tournament and knocked off Georgia Tech in the first round. The media picked them 8th again this year, but all three newcomers are ranked higher, which means the media expected them to leapfrog a few programs this year.
It wasn't a bad choice. BC returns a staggering 95+ percent of its production, as it had only one senior last year. And that senior wasn't all that good, only a bit contributor. BC returns 12 guys who registered a stat in some form or fashion (nine of them rotation regulars) and adds three freshmen and a junior transfer from Notre Dame. Surely this is a recipe for upward momentum.
Not so fast. One month into the season, BC is 3-6 and the second-worst team in KenPom's ratings. To start with, they gave themselves an ambitious schedule. Losses to UMass and UConn highlight that column, and the UConn one was close. Toledo is the top team in the MAC at the moment, and Providence is no slouch - again, a close loss. Blowout losses to USC and Purdue - neither of them especially outstanding teams - have plummeted the Eagles 26 spots in the KenPom rankings.
The lineup is very, very much a work in progress. Ten different players have started a game this year, the latest being shooting guard Lonnie Jackson back from an early-season hamstring injury. That lineup above is kind of an odd duck, with plenty of height but not much weight. Center KC Caudill is a back-of-the-rotation player and Dennis Clifford has struggled with knee problems, so BC regularly plays just one player over 220 pounds: Swedish freshman Will Magarity. The roster is so weirdly laid out that 6'8" Alex Dragicevich (the ND transfer) is listed as a guard and 6'5", 203 lb. Garland Owens is a forward.
This might help explain BC's defensive struggles; they've been just awful on that end of the court. They can't get turnovers, they're lousy defensive rebounders, and teams have shot .407 from three against them. Magarity is 6'11" and has the worst defensive rebounding rate on the whole team; front-line forwards Ryan Anderson and Eddie Odio (whose name is a delight to say out loud) are simply undersized relative to the competition and struggle to rebound. They're solid players, but they're badly outgunned in the post. The end result is that BC only has one game in which they've allowed less than a point per possession - Sacred Heart, the second-worst team on their schedule and a game they won in overtime.
The abysmal defense is kind of a shame, because BC can score. A triumvirate of players leads the way on offense, particularly sophomore guard Olivier Hanlan. Hanlan beat out a ton of ridiculously highly-rated talent (think Marcus Paige, T.J. Warren, Rasheed Sulaimon) to almost unanimously win Rookie of the Year honors, and was the only unanimous selection to the all-freshman team. He's currently averaging 19.2 ppg. Ryan Anderson isn't far behind with 18, and point guard Joe Rahon rounds out the scorers with 12.
It kind of drops off a cliff after that, though. Getting Jackson back into the swing will help quite a bit. Dragicevich is mostly a three-point shooter, though, and he hasn't hit many; Patrick Heckmann is just as cold. Odio, Owens, and Magarity are not scorers; they're not bad, but they're not assertive and they don't rebound, meaning all the frontcourt offense is left to Anderson.
Overall this is one of the strangest teams you'll see. They shoot threes pretty poorly overall but are one of only four teams in the country with a free-throw shooting percentage over 80. And yet everyone from Hanlan to Magarity tries their hand from long range. They're 24th in the country in KenPom's effective height measurement but they rebound like crap. Nobody has an offensive efficiency below 100 - a really rare thing to see - but only three guys score consistently. They have that 6'8" guard and 6'5" forward. It's really hard to peg a lot of these guys into a particular role. Hanlan is a star, no doubt about it, and Anderson is a really tough defend as well. If these guys can figure out some roles, maybe settle on a starting lineup, and for godsakes play some defense, they could be tough. There's probably no hope of an NCAA bid, but pulling things together could mean making some noise in the ACC to the tune of a .500ish record (probably below, but still, close) and maybe an NIT bid. Getting Clifford on the court would be a world of help, to keep Anderson and Odio from constantly being overmatched against opposing bigs. If they don't figure things out, they'll take a huge step backwards, potentially all the way to the ACC's basement. Because if Florida Atlantic is tearing up their defense to the tune of 1.2+ points per possession, what will the ACC do to it?
Friday, July 26, 2013
season preview: Boston College Eagles
Schedule:
8/31: Villanova
9/6: Wake Forest (Fri.)
9/14: @ USC
9/21: BYE
9/28: Florida State
10/5: Army
10/12: @ Clemson
10/19: BYE
10/26: @ North Carolina
11/2: Virginia Tech
11/9: @ New Mexico State
11/16: NC State
11/23: @ Maryland
11/30: @ Syracuse
Skip: Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, Pittsburgh, Virginia
2012 results:
Miami: L, 41-32
Maine: W, 34-3
Northwestern: L, 22-13
Clemson: L, 45-31
Army: L, 34-31
Florida State, L, 51-7
Georgia Tech: L, 37-17
Maryland: W, 20-17
Wake Forest: L, 28-14
Notre Dame: L, 21-6
Virginia Tech: L, 30-23
NC State: L, 27-10
Record: 2-10; 6th of 6, Atlantic Division
Projected starters:
QB: Chase Rettig (Sr.)
WR: Alex Amidon (Sr.)
WR: Spiffy Evans (Jr.)
TE: C.J. Parsons (rJr.)
RB: Andre Williams (Sr.)
FB: Jake Sinkovec (5Sr.)
LT: Dan Lembke (rSo.)
LG: Bobby Vardaro (rJr.)
C: Andy Gallik (rJr.)
RG: Harris Williams (rJr.)
RT: Ian White (5Sr.)
DE: Kaleb Ramsey (6Sr.)
DT: Mehdi Abdesmad (Jr.)
DT: Connor Wujciak (rSo.)
DE: Kasim Edebali (5Sr.)
SLB: Kevin Pierre-Louis (Sr.)
MLB: Steele Divitto (Sr.)
WLB: Steven Daniels (So.)
CB: Manny Asprilla (Jr.)
CB: Bryce Jones (So.)
FS: Sean Sylvia (rJr.)
SS: Spenser Rositano (Jr.)
K: Nate Freese (5Sr.)
P: Alex Howell (rSo.)
(Italics indicate new starter.)
Coach: Steve Addazio, 1st season
Media prediction: 7th of 7, Atlantic Division
All-ACC:
2012 1st team: WR Alex Amidon, LB Nick Clancy
2012 2nd team: OT Emmett Cleary
2012 HM: P Gerald Levano, LB Kevin Pierre-Louis
2013 preseason: LB Kevin Pierre-Louis
(Italics indicate departed player.)
BC's expectations weren't that high last year, but they still failed to reach them in spectacular fashion. A 2-10 season - in which most of the losses weren't even competitive - meant the end of Frank Spaziani's tenure and the hiring of Steve Addazio, whose head coaching credentials consist of riding Al Golden's coattails at Temple for one season before taking the Owls back to Losing Seasonville. Addazio has depth issues to deal with at several positions and faces a tough ACC schedule; the consensus two best teams are in his division, and his crossover games are UNC and VT.
-- Offense
Lack of continuity will be something that the Eagles' offense has to deal with; senior quarterback Chase Rettig is on his fourth offensive coordinator in four years. Rettig has helmed the BC offense for the past season-and-a-half, improving his efficiency slightly each season. He's never been a feared playmaker, though, which is something BC lacks throughout their entire offense. The Eagles production ranked at the bottom of the conference last year no matter how you look at it, and their 26 touchdowns on the season was the fewest of any team in the ACC.
Boston College does think that RB Andre Williams can be a dynamic playmaker if he stays healthy. A 99-yard rush against Army last year is some evidence of this. That said, he otherwise averaged about 3.75 yards a carry, and health has been a problem; Williams has missed games in each of the last three seasons with various ailments. Behind Williams, there's very little experience; Tahj Kimble and David Dudeck will fight the battle for carries, neither of whom has played more than a minimal role in past seasons. Dudeck and Kimble do have receiving skills that Williams does not, ensuring them at least a place in the offense.
At receiver, Alex Amidon is a very dependable option who had six 100-yard games and seven touchdowns last year; he represents BC's best proven playmaking capability. Spiffy Evans and Bobby Swigert also return; Swigert isn't listed on the depth chart but he had 44 catches two years ago and it was a pair of knee injuries that limited his stats in 2012, so you'd expect to see a role for him as well. Though quality pass-catching tight end Chris Pantale departs and a battle looms between Mike Naples and C.J. Parsons to fill his shoes, there should be adequate receiving capability in the offense as long as there's also health. If there isn't, it might start to get ugly.
Probably the biggest offseason loss for BC was left tackle Emmett Cleary; getting first crack at replacing him will be redshirt sophomore Dan Lembke, who has been grooming for the job for a while. On the other end, the very experienced Ian White slides over to right tackle after playing the first three years of his career at right guard, where he's made 23 starts. White could be a safety valve option at LT if Lembke isn't ready. On the interior, Bobby Vardaro at LG and Andy Gallik at center provide solid continuity, each having started all 12 games last season and at least a few in 2011 as well. The question will be Harris Williams at RG, a player the coaches like but who missed most of last season with a broken foot and has played only nine games the past two years.
With a senior quarterback, a decent receiving corps, and reasonable continuity on the O-line, the pieces are in place for BC to make some modest improvements on offense this season. But no defenses save the dreadful NMSU Aggies and (maybe) Villanova will be intimidated by this bunch, and putting yet another system into place (the new OC is last year's WR coach, so it's not that new, but still) might hold them back at times. Potential for improvement exists (very little place to go but up) but there's still potential as well for this to be the conference's worst offense.
-- Defense
As has been the case for a while, BC's strongest unit on either side of the ball is their linebackers. Two very productive linebackers return, and though the Eagles will have to replace Nick Clancy's 145 tackles and 10 pass breakups, the talent is more than available to do so. Steele Divitto moves to the middle from the strong side, and Kevin Pierre-Louis moves from weak to strong. Pierre-Louis is BC's entry on the preseason all-ACC team and made Phil Steele's preseason first team as well; he had 85 tackles, 4 TFL, and 2 sacks in an injury-shortened 2012 (and happened to be BC's sack leader as well.) Divitto recorded 92 tackles as well, and led the team in snaps played last year with 1,052; he's proven exceedingly durable (particularly by BC's injury-riddled standards) by starting each of the last 24 games. Filling in on the weak side is Steven Daniels, a well-regarded recruit in 2011 whose role increased heavily during his redshirt freshman season in 2012. Daniels is a product of the same Cincinnati high school that produced BC superstar Luke Kuechly; he is expected to step right in and be a top contributor as well.
The defensive line is another story. Last year I wrote that "the Eagles badly lack a true pass rushing threat from the ends." The team as a whole had had only 11 sacks in 2011. That somehow got even worse; the Eagles managed just six sacks all season, the absolute worst number in the whole country. Kasim Edebali is the top pass-rush threat, if you can call it that; he had 1.5 sacks in 2012, a 300% improvement from his half-a-sack in 2011. There may be a boost coming from Kaleb Ramsey, who played only four games total in 2011 and 2012 due to injury and was granted a sixth year by the NCAA. He played reasonably well for the Eagles in 2010 and ought to provide a boost for what was a pathetic pass rush. Brian Mihalik provides the primary depth, though he's not a terrifying presence either.
In the middle, a four-man rotation looks likely, with Mehdi Abdesmad moving inside to make room for Ramsey. Connor Wujciak was a top-250 recruit in his class and looks ready for a larger role after earning five starts last season. Jaryd Rudolph and Dominic Appiah are listed as the backups for now but both also have some starting experience under their belts.
Pass defense was a strength of sorts last year, partly because the linebackers are very good in pass coverage but also because the back line is solid. CB Manny Asprilla had a pair of picks last year, and Bryce Jones had some success as the nickel back, which in turn gave the Eagles confidence enough to move Sean Sylvia over to free safety. Sylvia pairs up with Spenser Rositano (three INTs) to give the Eagles a good pairing in the defensive backfield. If they had any pass-rush help this group might get some conference-wide recognition.
That said, until that pass-rush help shows up, BC can't fire on all cylinders on defense. Their pass rush has me scrambling to the thesaurus for syllables for "pathetic" - I like "piteous," "deplorable," and "grotty" myself. A grotty pass rush. It really can't be worse than six total sacks this year. The linebackers do a great job of cleaning up the mess from the D-line and the secondary really has potential, so if the Eagles can solidify themselves up front, the defense should be at least non-disastrous, perhaps even decent.
-- Special teams
PK Nate Freese had consistency issues in 2011 but got them mostly fixed in 2012, and should be dependable in this, his senior season. The Eagles will be looking for a punter; the only one on the roster is sophomore Alex Howell (younger brother of former UVA punter Jimmy Howell), though Freese might also be called upon for that job.
-- Outlook
BC was really, really bad last year. 2-10 was a very apt record, and their Maryland win was by a mere three points. It's not like they had a bunch of close losses that just happened to swing the wrong way. This year's schedule offers only a modicum of relief; basically by not having Notre Dame on the OOC list, replacing them with 1-11 New Mexico State. There should be improvements on both sides of the ball, if a healthy Andre Williams can give Chase Rettig some run-game help and if the D-line improves even a little. Finding two ACC wins among Maryland, Wake, and Syracuse ought to be the goal; the rest of the ACC schedule is daunting. If they can do that and hold serve in the OOC by beating Army, Villanova, and NMSU, that's five wins. Where the sixth would come from would be a mystery; five seems like the cap and four seems just as likely.
8/31: Villanova
9/6: Wake Forest (Fri.)
9/14: @ USC
9/21: BYE
9/28: Florida State
10/5: Army
10/12: @ Clemson
10/19: BYE
10/26: @ North Carolina
11/2: Virginia Tech
11/9: @ New Mexico State
11/16: NC State
11/23: @ Maryland
11/30: @ Syracuse
Skip: Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, Pittsburgh, Virginia
2012 results:
Miami: L, 41-32
Maine: W, 34-3
Northwestern: L, 22-13
Clemson: L, 45-31
Army: L, 34-31
Florida State, L, 51-7
Georgia Tech: L, 37-17
Maryland: W, 20-17
Wake Forest: L, 28-14
Notre Dame: L, 21-6
Virginia Tech: L, 30-23
NC State: L, 27-10
Record: 2-10; 6th of 6, Atlantic Division
Projected starters:
QB: Chase Rettig (Sr.)
WR: Alex Amidon (Sr.)
WR: Spiffy Evans (Jr.)
TE: C.J. Parsons (rJr.)
RB: Andre Williams (Sr.)
FB: Jake Sinkovec (5Sr.)
LT: Dan Lembke (rSo.)
LG: Bobby Vardaro (rJr.)
C: Andy Gallik (rJr.)
RG: Harris Williams (rJr.)
RT: Ian White (5Sr.)
DE: Kaleb Ramsey (6Sr.)
DT: Mehdi Abdesmad (Jr.)
DT: Connor Wujciak (rSo.)
DE: Kasim Edebali (5Sr.)
SLB: Kevin Pierre-Louis (Sr.)
MLB: Steele Divitto (Sr.)
WLB: Steven Daniels (So.)
CB: Manny Asprilla (Jr.)
CB: Bryce Jones (So.)
FS: Sean Sylvia (rJr.)
SS: Spenser Rositano (Jr.)
K: Nate Freese (5Sr.)
P: Alex Howell (rSo.)
(Italics indicate new starter.)
Coach: Steve Addazio, 1st season
Media prediction: 7th of 7, Atlantic Division
All-ACC:
2012 1st team: WR Alex Amidon, LB Nick Clancy
2012 2nd team: OT Emmett Cleary
2012 HM: P Gerald Levano, LB Kevin Pierre-Louis
2013 preseason: LB Kevin Pierre-Louis
(Italics indicate departed player.)
BC's expectations weren't that high last year, but they still failed to reach them in spectacular fashion. A 2-10 season - in which most of the losses weren't even competitive - meant the end of Frank Spaziani's tenure and the hiring of Steve Addazio, whose head coaching credentials consist of riding Al Golden's coattails at Temple for one season before taking the Owls back to Losing Seasonville. Addazio has depth issues to deal with at several positions and faces a tough ACC schedule; the consensus two best teams are in his division, and his crossover games are UNC and VT.
-- Offense
Lack of continuity will be something that the Eagles' offense has to deal with; senior quarterback Chase Rettig is on his fourth offensive coordinator in four years. Rettig has helmed the BC offense for the past season-and-a-half, improving his efficiency slightly each season. He's never been a feared playmaker, though, which is something BC lacks throughout their entire offense. The Eagles production ranked at the bottom of the conference last year no matter how you look at it, and their 26 touchdowns on the season was the fewest of any team in the ACC.
Boston College does think that RB Andre Williams can be a dynamic playmaker if he stays healthy. A 99-yard rush against Army last year is some evidence of this. That said, he otherwise averaged about 3.75 yards a carry, and health has been a problem; Williams has missed games in each of the last three seasons with various ailments. Behind Williams, there's very little experience; Tahj Kimble and David Dudeck will fight the battle for carries, neither of whom has played more than a minimal role in past seasons. Dudeck and Kimble do have receiving skills that Williams does not, ensuring them at least a place in the offense.
At receiver, Alex Amidon is a very dependable option who had six 100-yard games and seven touchdowns last year; he represents BC's best proven playmaking capability. Spiffy Evans and Bobby Swigert also return; Swigert isn't listed on the depth chart but he had 44 catches two years ago and it was a pair of knee injuries that limited his stats in 2012, so you'd expect to see a role for him as well. Though quality pass-catching tight end Chris Pantale departs and a battle looms between Mike Naples and C.J. Parsons to fill his shoes, there should be adequate receiving capability in the offense as long as there's also health. If there isn't, it might start to get ugly.
Probably the biggest offseason loss for BC was left tackle Emmett Cleary; getting first crack at replacing him will be redshirt sophomore Dan Lembke, who has been grooming for the job for a while. On the other end, the very experienced Ian White slides over to right tackle after playing the first three years of his career at right guard, where he's made 23 starts. White could be a safety valve option at LT if Lembke isn't ready. On the interior, Bobby Vardaro at LG and Andy Gallik at center provide solid continuity, each having started all 12 games last season and at least a few in 2011 as well. The question will be Harris Williams at RG, a player the coaches like but who missed most of last season with a broken foot and has played only nine games the past two years.
With a senior quarterback, a decent receiving corps, and reasonable continuity on the O-line, the pieces are in place for BC to make some modest improvements on offense this season. But no defenses save the dreadful NMSU Aggies and (maybe) Villanova will be intimidated by this bunch, and putting yet another system into place (the new OC is last year's WR coach, so it's not that new, but still) might hold them back at times. Potential for improvement exists (very little place to go but up) but there's still potential as well for this to be the conference's worst offense.
-- Defense
As has been the case for a while, BC's strongest unit on either side of the ball is their linebackers. Two very productive linebackers return, and though the Eagles will have to replace Nick Clancy's 145 tackles and 10 pass breakups, the talent is more than available to do so. Steele Divitto moves to the middle from the strong side, and Kevin Pierre-Louis moves from weak to strong. Pierre-Louis is BC's entry on the preseason all-ACC team and made Phil Steele's preseason first team as well; he had 85 tackles, 4 TFL, and 2 sacks in an injury-shortened 2012 (and happened to be BC's sack leader as well.) Divitto recorded 92 tackles as well, and led the team in snaps played last year with 1,052; he's proven exceedingly durable (particularly by BC's injury-riddled standards) by starting each of the last 24 games. Filling in on the weak side is Steven Daniels, a well-regarded recruit in 2011 whose role increased heavily during his redshirt freshman season in 2012. Daniels is a product of the same Cincinnati high school that produced BC superstar Luke Kuechly; he is expected to step right in and be a top contributor as well.
The defensive line is another story. Last year I wrote that "the Eagles badly lack a true pass rushing threat from the ends." The team as a whole had had only 11 sacks in 2011. That somehow got even worse; the Eagles managed just six sacks all season, the absolute worst number in the whole country. Kasim Edebali is the top pass-rush threat, if you can call it that; he had 1.5 sacks in 2012, a 300% improvement from his half-a-sack in 2011. There may be a boost coming from Kaleb Ramsey, who played only four games total in 2011 and 2012 due to injury and was granted a sixth year by the NCAA. He played reasonably well for the Eagles in 2010 and ought to provide a boost for what was a pathetic pass rush. Brian Mihalik provides the primary depth, though he's not a terrifying presence either.
In the middle, a four-man rotation looks likely, with Mehdi Abdesmad moving inside to make room for Ramsey. Connor Wujciak was a top-250 recruit in his class and looks ready for a larger role after earning five starts last season. Jaryd Rudolph and Dominic Appiah are listed as the backups for now but both also have some starting experience under their belts.
Pass defense was a strength of sorts last year, partly because the linebackers are very good in pass coverage but also because the back line is solid. CB Manny Asprilla had a pair of picks last year, and Bryce Jones had some success as the nickel back, which in turn gave the Eagles confidence enough to move Sean Sylvia over to free safety. Sylvia pairs up with Spenser Rositano (three INTs) to give the Eagles a good pairing in the defensive backfield. If they had any pass-rush help this group might get some conference-wide recognition.
That said, until that pass-rush help shows up, BC can't fire on all cylinders on defense. Their pass rush has me scrambling to the thesaurus for syllables for "pathetic" - I like "piteous," "deplorable," and "grotty" myself. A grotty pass rush. It really can't be worse than six total sacks this year. The linebackers do a great job of cleaning up the mess from the D-line and the secondary really has potential, so if the Eagles can solidify themselves up front, the defense should be at least non-disastrous, perhaps even decent.
-- Special teams
PK Nate Freese had consistency issues in 2011 but got them mostly fixed in 2012, and should be dependable in this, his senior season. The Eagles will be looking for a punter; the only one on the roster is sophomore Alex Howell (younger brother of former UVA punter Jimmy Howell), though Freese might also be called upon for that job.
-- Outlook
BC was really, really bad last year. 2-10 was a very apt record, and their Maryland win was by a mere three points. It's not like they had a bunch of close losses that just happened to swing the wrong way. This year's schedule offers only a modicum of relief; basically by not having Notre Dame on the OOC list, replacing them with 1-11 New Mexico State. There should be improvements on both sides of the ball, if a healthy Andre Williams can give Chase Rettig some run-game help and if the D-line improves even a little. Finding two ACC wins among Maryland, Wake, and Syracuse ought to be the goal; the rest of the ACC schedule is daunting. If they can do that and hold serve in the OOC by beating Army, Villanova, and NMSU, that's five wins. Where the sixth would come from would be a mystery; five seems like the cap and four seems just as likely.
Monday, January 28, 2013
weekend review
Back and forth on the seesaw we go. If you were listening in the past, you've been prepared and you know what it means. If not, you probably think UVA is a perfectly legitimate darkhorse to make the Sweet 16, win the ACC title, and why aren't we ranked yet anyway?
I wish I could say all that stuff is true, but there's work yet to be done to scrub away the memories of ODU and some crappy conference losses. For now, though, I don't mind riding a little high on the wave of three very decisive conference wins. The outlook for this basketball team should continue to be, on balance, optimistic. I might even let off a firework or two if they win tomorrow against NC State.
Because here's the deal. So far, we've had the easiest conference schedule, if you go by KenPom's numbers. Second-easiest, if you go by RPI, with only VT having it easier. Does that mean we're gonna make up for it in the last two-thirds of the schedule? Only a little. Of the three teams considered the likeliest to win the conference, we play each of them only once, and two of them at home. It's not an easy schedule, it never is in the ACC, but the games are winnable. I don't think you can ask for much more. Except health, which we never seem to get.
Some bulletized semi-issues from the past week:
-- There is this tendency - almost a desire, actually - to believe Teven Jones is "in the doghouse" because Doug Browman is eating up his minutes. After the BC game, Tony Bennett was even asked "where's Teven?" and his answer was basically that Browman was doing a better job at defending (on-ball screens were Tony's example) and knowing the system, by which I assume he means both offense and defense. This isn't hard to believe, given all the minutes that Will Sherrill got over Tristan Spurlock because Sherrill took to the system like the fat kid to the donut buffet. Browman has been receiving Bennett's coaching for four years now; Teven, barely one. People still want to say, "no, I think Teven's in the doghouse." OK, you know best.
-- It's almost like Tony read my scouting report on VT. The keys to winning were to shut down all the players not named Erick Green and shoot a zillion open threes because Tech will let you. Boom, 11 for 23 from three-land and Green scores 35 of Tech's 58 points while their next-best option (Jarell Eddie) shoots 2 for 11. I didn't even realize Green had so damn many points, either.
-- The stat sheet from that game is fascinating. Jontel Evans had six assists and no turnovers and the Hoos as a team had 21 and 6. They had more steals (nine) than VT had assists (six, and 14 turnovers.) It's a testament to coaching that the team in the hostile road gym was far more composed and together than the team playing for their home fans. By the way, Marshall Wood played for Tech after James Johnson had called it unlikely, but it might not've been the wisest move: if he hadn't picked up his one lone turnover he would've earned himself a seven-trillion.
-- UVA's length is starting to get to the opposition. Justin Anderson is becoming the master of the fuck-yo-shot out-of-nowhere swat, and guys like Joe Harris and Evan Nolte are putting themselves on the shot-block board too. Good positioning is the key to a lot of those; Anderson's extra athleticism is what turns the mundane into the spectacular.
-- By the way, I didn't have a big problem with Anderson's end-of-game dunk against BC. Partly because it let the UVA side of the score exactly match my prediction, yes. But the main thing is, he'd've dribbled out the clock, but BC double-teamed him. Hey, you keep playing, I'll keep playing. Anderson's apology to Steve Donahue was a solid thing to do, though.
-- BC's lineup, now that I actually think about it, is full of Reggie Cleveland All-Stars. Both ways, too. How is it that Olivier Hanlon and Ryan Anderson are black and Dennis Clifford is white?
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More from around the world. The whole world. If your world is mostly UVA sports.
-- The CDP's headline that the notion of a UVA-Oregon football series is "premature at this point" is pretty much all the confirmation you need that it's happening. Penn State backed out of our game this fall and Oregon appears to be the replacement, with a 2013 and 2016 home and home. (From the way things have been sounding, by the way, PSU still wants to play the game, just not during their crippling sanction period.) It would appear the 2013 game is in Charlottesville, which would mean eight home games and not a single OOC game away from Scott Stadium.
There's a disturbing reaction from a wing of the fanbase that claims we should be scheduling Somalia State instead, in order to puff up our record and send the message that we're a team on the rise. Nonsense. If we're so lousy that we need fluffy cotton candy to squeak into bowl eligibility at 6-6, we got bigger issues. The Hokies go 6-6 and apologize for it; we shouldn't be needing to find the shittiest teams we can just so we can brag about six wins. If we can't get bowl eligible by beating Duke, Maryland, Ball State, VMI, and two more teams out of the eight others on the schedule, the problem is probably coaching, not scheduling.
Besides, sometimes the cupcake bites back. Ask Louisiana Tech. That was supposed to be a cupcake game, when it was scheduled. I'd rather be trounced by a top-5 team than by a WAC-snack. For the record, I'd really rather have replaced PSU with a quality-but-not-dominant Big Five team like Mizzou or Vandy, but any business of shying away from Oregon is proof we need a new attitude as a fanbase.
-- The Hokies will be without starting cornerback Antone Exum for most of the offseason and maybe part of the regular season after he tore his ACL.
-- There's also an interesting CDP article today on Anthony Gill, the DeLorean in the garage, as Whitey Reid puts it. I wish by that he meant that we were going back to the Ralph Sampson years with this guy, but I think we're in for something interesting next year regardless.
I wish I could say all that stuff is true, but there's work yet to be done to scrub away the memories of ODU and some crappy conference losses. For now, though, I don't mind riding a little high on the wave of three very decisive conference wins. The outlook for this basketball team should continue to be, on balance, optimistic. I might even let off a firework or two if they win tomorrow against NC State.
Because here's the deal. So far, we've had the easiest conference schedule, if you go by KenPom's numbers. Second-easiest, if you go by RPI, with only VT having it easier. Does that mean we're gonna make up for it in the last two-thirds of the schedule? Only a little. Of the three teams considered the likeliest to win the conference, we play each of them only once, and two of them at home. It's not an easy schedule, it never is in the ACC, but the games are winnable. I don't think you can ask for much more. Except health, which we never seem to get.
Some bulletized semi-issues from the past week:
-- There is this tendency - almost a desire, actually - to believe Teven Jones is "in the doghouse" because Doug Browman is eating up his minutes. After the BC game, Tony Bennett was even asked "where's Teven?" and his answer was basically that Browman was doing a better job at defending (on-ball screens were Tony's example) and knowing the system, by which I assume he means both offense and defense. This isn't hard to believe, given all the minutes that Will Sherrill got over Tristan Spurlock because Sherrill took to the system like the fat kid to the donut buffet. Browman has been receiving Bennett's coaching for four years now; Teven, barely one. People still want to say, "no, I think Teven's in the doghouse." OK, you know best.
-- It's almost like Tony read my scouting report on VT. The keys to winning were to shut down all the players not named Erick Green and shoot a zillion open threes because Tech will let you. Boom, 11 for 23 from three-land and Green scores 35 of Tech's 58 points while their next-best option (Jarell Eddie) shoots 2 for 11. I didn't even realize Green had so damn many points, either.
-- The stat sheet from that game is fascinating. Jontel Evans had six assists and no turnovers and the Hoos as a team had 21 and 6. They had more steals (nine) than VT had assists (six, and 14 turnovers.) It's a testament to coaching that the team in the hostile road gym was far more composed and together than the team playing for their home fans. By the way, Marshall Wood played for Tech after James Johnson had called it unlikely, but it might not've been the wisest move: if he hadn't picked up his one lone turnover he would've earned himself a seven-trillion.
-- UVA's length is starting to get to the opposition. Justin Anderson is becoming the master of the fuck-yo-shot out-of-nowhere swat, and guys like Joe Harris and Evan Nolte are putting themselves on the shot-block board too. Good positioning is the key to a lot of those; Anderson's extra athleticism is what turns the mundane into the spectacular.
-- By the way, I didn't have a big problem with Anderson's end-of-game dunk against BC. Partly because it let the UVA side of the score exactly match my prediction, yes. But the main thing is, he'd've dribbled out the clock, but BC double-teamed him. Hey, you keep playing, I'll keep playing. Anderson's apology to Steve Donahue was a solid thing to do, though.
-- BC's lineup, now that I actually think about it, is full of Reggie Cleveland All-Stars. Both ways, too. How is it that Olivier Hanlon and Ryan Anderson are black and Dennis Clifford is white?
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More from around the world. The whole world. If your world is mostly UVA sports.
-- The CDP's headline that the notion of a UVA-Oregon football series is "premature at this point" is pretty much all the confirmation you need that it's happening. Penn State backed out of our game this fall and Oregon appears to be the replacement, with a 2013 and 2016 home and home. (From the way things have been sounding, by the way, PSU still wants to play the game, just not during their crippling sanction period.) It would appear the 2013 game is in Charlottesville, which would mean eight home games and not a single OOC game away from Scott Stadium.
There's a disturbing reaction from a wing of the fanbase that claims we should be scheduling Somalia State instead, in order to puff up our record and send the message that we're a team on the rise. Nonsense. If we're so lousy that we need fluffy cotton candy to squeak into bowl eligibility at 6-6, we got bigger issues. The Hokies go 6-6 and apologize for it; we shouldn't be needing to find the shittiest teams we can just so we can brag about six wins. If we can't get bowl eligible by beating Duke, Maryland, Ball State, VMI, and two more teams out of the eight others on the schedule, the problem is probably coaching, not scheduling.
Besides, sometimes the cupcake bites back. Ask Louisiana Tech. That was supposed to be a cupcake game, when it was scheduled. I'd rather be trounced by a top-5 team than by a WAC-snack. For the record, I'd really rather have replaced PSU with a quality-but-not-dominant Big Five team like Mizzou or Vandy, but any business of shying away from Oregon is proof we need a new attitude as a fanbase.
-- The Hokies will be without starting cornerback Antone Exum for most of the offseason and maybe part of the regular season after he tore his ACL.
-- There's also an interesting CDP article today on Anthony Gill, the DeLorean in the garage, as Whitey Reid puts it. I wish by that he meant that we were going back to the Ralph Sampson years with this guy, but I think we're in for something interesting next year regardless.
Saturday, January 26, 2013
game preview: Boston College
Date/Time: Saturday, January 26; 1:00
TV: RSN, ESPN3
Record against the Eagles: 8-6
Last matchup: UVA 66, BC 49; 1/26/12, Charlottesville
Last game: UVA 74, VT 58 (1/24); Md. 64, BC 59 (1/22)
KenPom:
Tempo:
UVA: 59.6 (#345)
BC: 64.9 (#244)
Offense:
UVA: 103.3 (#114)
BC: 106.1 (#71)
Defense:
UVA: 85.9 (#10)
BC: 101.4 (#196)
Pythag:
UVA: .8689 (#32)
BC: .6143 (#124)
Projected lineups:
Virginia:
PG: Jontel Evans (3.1 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 4.0 apg)
SG: Paul Jesperson (4.4 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 1.2 apg)
SF: Joe Harris (15.3 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 2.3 apg)
PF: Evan Nolte (7.1 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 1.3 apg)
PF: Akil Mitchell (12.1 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 1.8 apg)
Boston College:
PG: Joe Rahon (10.4 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 3.8 apg)
SG: Lonnie Jackson (10.3 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.1 apg)
SG: Olivier Hanlon (13.9 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 2.6 apg)
SG: Patrick Heckmann (8.2 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 1.7 apg)
PF: Ryan Anderson (16.5 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 1.5 apg)
Last night can only be called a rousing success; the truth is there's no better place to win a game than Cassell Coliseum. Oh, you have to defend your home court and win for your fans, to be sure, but there's something extra-special satisfying in sending a full house of Hokies (the ones that aren't Tar Heel fans) home muttering about football season, which too bad for them is eight months away.
There's not much time to enjoy it, though. The turnaround time is something less than 40 hours, and Boston College shows up in the JPJA. BC had some stumbles in the non-conference schedule and sports an ugly ACC record, but the scores of their conference games could mean they're a more dangerous team than they look.
-- UVA on offense
It's too bad Darion Atkins is likely to once again sit out, because Steve Donahue has been employing a four-guard lineup of late, and I'd like to see one of them try and guard Atkins and/or Akil Mitchell. But we're here for the game that will be played on the court, not in my fantasies. The four-guard lineup may be just the thing for defending UVA's recent three-point barrage; the truth is that Harris and Nolte basically comprise the taller half of a four-guard lineup themselves.
However, like VT, BC is a team unlikely to create many turnovers. UVA did a great job taking care of the ball against Tech, because the Hokies didn't hardly ever get into the passing lanes. BC is similarly weak in the steals department, and except for when backup center Dennis Clifford gets into the game, they aren't a shot-blocking team either. They'll try to keep you in front of them and they don't play overly aggressive. It keeps them out of foul trouble, but teams are shooting three-pointers quite well against them.
BC is actually an excellent defensive rebounding team, thanks almost entirely to the sterling efforts of Ryan Anderson, the only forward in the starting lineup, as well as Clifford. Both are terrific on the boards, particularly Anderson; were they not, BC probably would go from the top to the bottom of the defensive rebounding percentage barrel in a heartbeat. Akil Mitchell could have some room to work against Anderson, though. He has about 15 pounds on Anderson and should BC try to double him, Mitchell will probably find it easier than usual to pass out of it. If Anderson is assigned to Mike Tobey, Tobey will again look to shoot jump shots over his head the way he's been doing with ever-increasing confidence lately. Clifford is another matter; he's a seven footer and a quality defender, likely to neutralize whoever he guards and give lane drivers a tough time.
The bottom line, more or less, is that UVA will again have room to shoot the threes that've carried them to victory recently. And as a bonus, they should be able to supplement that with some work in the post. The 1.2 points-per-possession output in the VT game was probably about the best we'll see all year, but BC might also leave the Hoos some room to operate.
-- UVA on defense
The Eagles' offense is surprisingly decent for a team struggling to keep its head above water. I said in their season preview that they would be improved but their record might not show it, and the results so far reflect that pretty well. They kept pace with NC State's powerful offense and put a fright into Miami as well; they had mid-second-half leads in both games before succumbing to a talent deficit.
I also said in that preview that Lonnie Jackson might be shooting his way out of a job. He shot his way back in since I said that. In the last six games he's been hitting three-pointers at a .564 clip, and he's boosted his percentage from .273 then to .400 now. Freshman Patrick Heckmann has meanwhile cooled off, with his success rate dropping from over .500 to .355 now.
It's important to look at those percentages because the Eagles will attempt a lot of threes. All four of their starting guards have taken four a game, or closer to six in Jackson's case. Over 40% of BC's shots are threes, which puts them in the top 25 in the country in that respect. They also draw a ton of fouls; that again is Ryan Anderson's doing, along with quick-moving freshman guard Olivier Hanlon. Anderson has blossomed as a go-to scorer, displaying a wide array of post moves and making himself incredibly difficult to guard. Hanlon has earned multiple selections as the ACC's freshman of the week, and despite a very modest three-point percentage, is BC's second-leading scorer and has also proven he can fill it in a variety of ways.
UVA will likely use the low-post double team copiously on Anderson. Mitchell will be an interesting matchup on him; his length and athleticism will make for some interesting battles. Anderson likes to fall away as much as he likes to attack the rim. One major advantage the Hoos will have everywhere else, though, is size. Especially when the four guards are in, UVA will be much bigger and longer at most positions; the exception is point guard, where Jontel Evans isn't usually bigger than anyone. But Joe Rahon is a freshman and Evans a senior, and Rahon has done a nice job this year but Evans will be a new experience for him.
This could be a dangerous matchup; Steve Donahue is instilling some decent basketball into the Eagles, who do an excellent job of taking care of the ball and look like they've developed some nice offensive cohesion. But they're one of the few conference teams less experienced than UVA, playing on the road on Saturday, and Tony's defense has been a well-oiled machine lately.
-- Outlook
I can't believe I'm about to say this, since we have such a freshman-powered team and half a frontcourt, but experience and size ought to tip the game in UVA's favor. The former mainly because it's on the road, and the latter because UVA has very deceptive size; big guards that can match up with BC's four (normal-sized) guards lineup. At some point this season Boston College will upend someone who isn't paying attention. They're 1-4, yes, but thanks to four very close losses and a demolition win over VT, their total point margin in conference play is only -4. Only NC State has generated better conference-only offensive efficiency than the Eagles. That said, the Hoos are on a roll, and the short layoff is usually a good thing when you're on a roll. I like UVA to keep up the good work.
Final score: UVA 65, BC 55
Saturday, December 1, 2012
season preview: Boston College
First in a series that's just like the football one, except for basketball.
Media prediction: 12th of 12
Last season:
Record: 9-22 (4-12)
Postseason: none
KenPom: 259th of 345
Returning scoring: 63.7%
Returning rebounding: 70.9%
Returning assists: 50.6%
2011-2012 all-ACC:
1st team: none
2nd team: none
3rd team: none
HM: none
Defensive: none
Rookie: F Ryan Anderson
(Italics indicate departed player.)
Starting lineup:
PG: Joe Rahon (Fr.)
SG: Lonnie Jackson (So.)
G: Olivier Hanlan (Fr.)
F: Ryan Anderson (So.)
C: Dennis Clifford (So.)
Bench:
G Patrick Heckmann (So.)
F Andrew Van Nest (Sr.)
F Eddie Odio (So.)
G Danny Rubin (Jr.)
Coach: Steve Donahue (3rd season)
ACC schedule:
Twice: Clemson, Duke, Maryland, Miami, NC State, Virginia, Wake Forest
Once: Florida State, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Virginia Tech
Boston College is mired in the middle of a long and painful rebuilding process. Two years ago, they had a decent season and went to the NIT in the last year of the team that Al Skinner built. Midnight struck and Mephistopheles arrived and claimed BC's soul, and they plummeted to a 9-22 season in 2011-2012. Skinner recruited like he believed in the Mayan doomsday calendar, and didn't leave Steve Donahue with an empty cupboard; he stole the cupboards and kitchen sink too.
BC's lineup and roster reflect the rebuilding project; the roster lists four freshmen, seven sophomores, two juniors, and one graduate-level senior. Of the three upperclassmen, one is a transfer from Notre Dame who must sit out the year, one (Andrew Van Nest, the senior) is a transfer from Harvard who wasn't actually all that good at Harvard, and one, Danny Rubin, was part of Donahue's desperation class of 2010 and has been sliding backwards in the rotation ever since a respectable freshman campaign. Rubin has been relegated to that guy who comes off the bench in case of too much foul trouble, because he can shoot pretty well but can't defend.
The rest of the roster is a product of Skinner's criminal negligence and the usual upheaval of a coaching change. BC's core is the recruiting class that Donahue signed in 2011, who are now sophomores. The leader there is forward Ryan Anderson, a unanimous selection to the all-freshman team last year. Leading your team in scoring, even if it is Boston College, will do that for you. This isn't to say that Anderson will tear up the ACC going forward, but he's a solid player who can score and rebound. Anderson's scoring has been supplemented this year by a pair of freshmen guards: Quebecer Olivier Hanlan and point guard Joe Rahon. That will be be the big three in BC's starting lineup; BC also brings in sharpshooting specialist Patrick Heckmann off the bench as the sixth-man scoring option.
Heckmann, however, could see himself as a regular in the starting lineup soon; he got the nod against Penn State over Lonnie Jackson, who is shooting his way right out of the regular minutes he's used to. Heckmann has been much better than Jackson this season; he's shooting .531 to Jackson's .273. Hanlan was also expected to be a backup this year, but nominal starter Jordan Daniels transferred out only a few days before the season began, putting Hanlan in the starting lineup.
BC is thin in the frontcourt, where Matt Humphrey's transfer also hurt, probably more than Daniels. Humphrey gave the Eagles one year after transferring in from Oregon, and then booked it right back out of town in the direction of West Virginia. BC can look forward next year to adding Notre Dame transfer Alex Dragicevich, but until then the big-man rotation is three and a half deep. There's Anderson, who they will try not to run ragged this year, and the Eagles start Dennis Clifford at center. Clifford is a true big man at seven feet, 250, and is a very good defender and rebounder, but he's not a huge offensive contributor. Van Nest is a body they can throw in there, but that's about all, and KC Caudill only bring spot minutes.
Boston College is probably a better team than they were last year. KenPom (with the early-season tiny-sample-size caveats applying) has them with a Pythagorean of .5249, much-improved over their end-of-season number of .2631. Much better offense accounts for that, which is to be expected when you were relying so heavily on freshmen last year who are now sophomores. There's still a world of growing pains to deal with, though; a home loss to Bryant drives that point home. And early indications are that the middle-to-bottom section of the ACC is solidifying up to where it belongs, instead of the anemic results of last year. So there may be no improvement at all in the wins column; the Eagles won four games last year, by an average of three points each, in most cases taking advantage of opponents playing well below what's expected of an ACC team. So BC will struggle this year just as they did last year, with the W/L record hiding some steady improvements. It won't really be until next season that BC can harbor legitimate postseason aspirations.
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I am aware of much news that has befallen the world of football in the past, oh, 36 hours, including that which concerns Mike Rocco, and promise to address it all Monday.
Media prediction: 12th of 12
Last season:
Record: 9-22 (4-12)
Postseason: none
KenPom: 259th of 345
Returning scoring: 63.7%
Returning rebounding: 70.9%
Returning assists: 50.6%
2011-2012 all-ACC:
1st team: none
2nd team: none
3rd team: none
HM: none
Defensive: none
Rookie: F Ryan Anderson
(Italics indicate departed player.)
Starting lineup:
PG: Joe Rahon (Fr.)
SG: Lonnie Jackson (So.)
G: Olivier Hanlan (Fr.)
F: Ryan Anderson (So.)
C: Dennis Clifford (So.)
Bench:
G Patrick Heckmann (So.)
F Andrew Van Nest (Sr.)
F Eddie Odio (So.)
G Danny Rubin (Jr.)
Coach: Steve Donahue (3rd season)
ACC schedule:
Twice: Clemson, Duke, Maryland, Miami, NC State, Virginia, Wake Forest
Once: Florida State, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Virginia Tech
Boston College is mired in the middle of a long and painful rebuilding process. Two years ago, they had a decent season and went to the NIT in the last year of the team that Al Skinner built. Midnight struck and Mephistopheles arrived and claimed BC's soul, and they plummeted to a 9-22 season in 2011-2012. Skinner recruited like he believed in the Mayan doomsday calendar, and didn't leave Steve Donahue with an empty cupboard; he stole the cupboards and kitchen sink too.
BC's lineup and roster reflect the rebuilding project; the roster lists four freshmen, seven sophomores, two juniors, and one graduate-level senior. Of the three upperclassmen, one is a transfer from Notre Dame who must sit out the year, one (Andrew Van Nest, the senior) is a transfer from Harvard who wasn't actually all that good at Harvard, and one, Danny Rubin, was part of Donahue's desperation class of 2010 and has been sliding backwards in the rotation ever since a respectable freshman campaign. Rubin has been relegated to that guy who comes off the bench in case of too much foul trouble, because he can shoot pretty well but can't defend.
The rest of the roster is a product of Skinner's criminal negligence and the usual upheaval of a coaching change. BC's core is the recruiting class that Donahue signed in 2011, who are now sophomores. The leader there is forward Ryan Anderson, a unanimous selection to the all-freshman team last year. Leading your team in scoring, even if it is Boston College, will do that for you. This isn't to say that Anderson will tear up the ACC going forward, but he's a solid player who can score and rebound. Anderson's scoring has been supplemented this year by a pair of freshmen guards: Quebecer Olivier Hanlan and point guard Joe Rahon. That will be be the big three in BC's starting lineup; BC also brings in sharpshooting specialist Patrick Heckmann off the bench as the sixth-man scoring option.
Heckmann, however, could see himself as a regular in the starting lineup soon; he got the nod against Penn State over Lonnie Jackson, who is shooting his way right out of the regular minutes he's used to. Heckmann has been much better than Jackson this season; he's shooting .531 to Jackson's .273. Hanlan was also expected to be a backup this year, but nominal starter Jordan Daniels transferred out only a few days before the season began, putting Hanlan in the starting lineup.
BC is thin in the frontcourt, where Matt Humphrey's transfer also hurt, probably more than Daniels. Humphrey gave the Eagles one year after transferring in from Oregon, and then booked it right back out of town in the direction of West Virginia. BC can look forward next year to adding Notre Dame transfer Alex Dragicevich, but until then the big-man rotation is three and a half deep. There's Anderson, who they will try not to run ragged this year, and the Eagles start Dennis Clifford at center. Clifford is a true big man at seven feet, 250, and is a very good defender and rebounder, but he's not a huge offensive contributor. Van Nest is a body they can throw in there, but that's about all, and KC Caudill only bring spot minutes.
Boston College is probably a better team than they were last year. KenPom (with the early-season tiny-sample-size caveats applying) has them with a Pythagorean of .5249, much-improved over their end-of-season number of .2631. Much better offense accounts for that, which is to be expected when you were relying so heavily on freshmen last year who are now sophomores. There's still a world of growing pains to deal with, though; a home loss to Bryant drives that point home. And early indications are that the middle-to-bottom section of the ACC is solidifying up to where it belongs, instead of the anemic results of last year. So there may be no improvement at all in the wins column; the Eagles won four games last year, by an average of three points each, in most cases taking advantage of opponents playing well below what's expected of an ACC team. So BC will struggle this year just as they did last year, with the W/L record hiding some steady improvements. It won't really be until next season that BC can harbor legitimate postseason aspirations.
*********************************************************
I am aware of much news that has befallen the world of football in the past, oh, 36 hours, including that which concerns Mike Rocco, and promise to address it all Monday.
Monday, July 30, 2012
season preview: Boston College Eagles
Schedule:
9/1: Miami
9/8: Maine
9/15: @ Northwestern
9/22: BYE
9/29: Clemson
10/6: @ Army
10/13: @ Florida State
10/20: @ Georgia Tech
10/27: Maryland
11/3: @ Wake Forest
11/10: Notre Dame
11/17: Virginia Tech
11/24: @ NC State
Skip: Duke, North Carolina, Virginia
Projected starters:
QB: Chase Rettig (Jr.)
RB: Rolandan Finch (rJr.)
WR: Colin Larmond (5Sr.)
WR: Bobby Swigert (Jr.)
WR: Alex Amidon (Jr.)
TE: Chris Pantale (5Sr.)
LT: Emmett Cleary (5Sr.)
LG: Bobby Vardaro (rSo.)
C: Ian White (rJr.)
RG: Harris Williams (rSo.)
RT: John Wetzel (Sr.)
DE: Kasim Edebali (rJr.)
DT: Kaleb Ramsey (5Sr.)
DT: Dillon Quinn (rJr.)
DE: Brian Mihalik (So.)
SLB: Steele Divitto (Jr.)
MLB: Sean Duggan (So.)
WLB: Kevin Pierre-Louis (Jr.)
CB: Al Louis-Jean (So.)
CB: Manuel Asprilla (So.)
SS: Spenser Rositano (So.)
FS: Sean Sylvia (rSo.)
K: Nate Freese (rJr.)
P: Gerald Levano (5Sr.)
Coach: Frank Spaziani (4th year)
(Italics indicate new starter.)
Media prediction: 5th, Atlantic Division
All-ACC:
2011 1st team: LB Luke Kuechly
2011 2nd team: none
2011 HM: none
2012 preseason: none
(Italics indicate departed player.)
Boston College's season started off so pitifully last year that nobody bothered to notice them finishing the season by winning three of their last five, including wins over NC State and Miami. They were supposed to have a nice easy stretch that sat them at 5-0 after the first five games; they bombed and went 1-4 instead. But they improved in the second half, breathing life support into Frank Spaziani's so far lackluster tenure. This year, there's very little that's easy about the Eagles' schedule, and bowl eligibility will require at least one upset and several wins away from Chestnut Hill.
OFFENSE
Boston College fans thought they were going to get Montel Harris for one more season after the star running back hurt his knee last year and missed most of the season. Alas, Harris was kicked off the team this past spring for repeated rules violations, and so the committee that replaced Harris last year is back for another spin. The leader there is Rolandan Finch; the bigger back in the tandem is Andre Williams, although both run with pretty similar styles. Not a lot of flash and juke to either one, but both can be tough to bring down and both averaged 4-4.5 yards a carry last season. They'll probably end up about the same this year.
They'll run behind a solid and experienced offensive line, albeit one that's shuffled a ton. Emmett Cleary is the team's best tackle - he came in fourth among tackles in the ACC's preseason all-conference media poll - so he and John Wetzel switched sides this season. Ian White slides over from right guard to play center, and Harris Williams moves from backup left guard to starting on the right side. Only LG Bobby Vardaro will play the same position he did last year. There's a ton of starting experience on this line, but they'll have to overcome the shell game that's being played here.
The best and most experienced linemen are the bookend tackles, so Chase Rettig should have plenty of time to operate. Now going into his third year as the starter, Rettig has never blown anyone away with raw talent, but for the most part he won't lose games, either. He doubled his touchdown total from his freshman to his sophomore year and kept his INTs constant at nine; his completion percentage improved slightly, and he's never been and probably never will be a downfield slinger, preferring to work mostly with underneath and midrange passes.
In that regard, it doesn't help that BC's receiving corps lacks a major home run threat. Colin Larmond and Bobby Swigert are dependable types, with Swigert playing the role of the stereotypical white-boy slot and possession receiver and doing it very well. Helping out there will also be tight end Chris Pantale, whose third-place finish in ACC media voting for all-conference was the highest of any BC player. Missing, however, is the speed element, and the Eagles hope sophomore receiver Spiffy Evans can provide that as he transitions from special teams to a place on the regular offense.
The long and short of BC's offense is that it's full of solid, experienced players who are totally unlikely to break off any game-changing big plays. If BC wants to score this season, barring a breakout from someone like Evans, they'll have to do it four and eight yards at a time. They'll lose games where they have to play catch-up early.
DEFENSE
A big loss on the offensive side of the ball in Harris - and an even bigger one on defense, where Luke Kuechly moved on to the NFL after spending his junior season racking up 191 tackles.** Fortunately, the linebacking corps should be pretty good without him, probably even the strength of the defense. Outside linebackers Kevin Pierre-Louis and Steele Divitto picked up 70+ tackles each, meaning the three starting LBs were responsible for nearly 40% of BC's total tackles. Pierre-Louis could be another star in the making, although not quite on the level of Kuechly.
Kuechly bogarted all the snaps in the middle, though, so finding a replacement will be tricky. The Eagles turn here to Sean Duggan, who started three games last year on the weak side when Pierre-Louis was out with an injury. Duggan is at worst adequate and should really turn out pretty decent; he finished sixth on the team in tackles despite starting only those three games and playing in only nine. All in all, BC's linebackers will set the tone for the defense.
Up front and in back, though, there are some question marks. The defensive line is a little more solid, but mostly unremarkable, and better in the middle than on the ends. DE Kasim Edebali started all 12 games last year and managed to record just half a sack, and the other bookend, Brian Mihalik, is still getting his feet wet. In the middle, Kaleb Ramsey was supposed to be a rock in 2011 after being the Eagles' top D-lineman in 2010, but his season was lost to injury, so he'll get another chance this year. Dominic Appiah performed well as a freshman in Ramsey's absence, so those two and 312-pounder Dillon Quinn should prove to be a decent, though not spectacular rotation. But the Eagles badly lack a true pass rushing threat from the ends.
In the backfield, the Eagles could be vulnerable. Nobody returns who had more than one interception, and the team leader was Yup, Kuechly Again with three. Cornerback should be a battle on both sides of the field, where Albert Louis-Jean and Manny Asprilla have the advantage of experience over C.J. Jones and James McCaffrey, but not an iron grip on the job. Safety is another pitched battle: at free safety, Sean Sylvia would appear to have the edge on Josh Keyes, and that in fact is the best I can say for anyone's starting prospects in the secondary. At strong safety, it's between Jim Noel and Stone Bridge product Spenser Rositano; Noel has more experience, but it's my humble opinon that Rositano is the better playmaker and will probably horn in on Noel's playing time as the season progresses.
It's that word - playmaker - that's again holding Boston College back, however. See: lack thereof. Their best chances at seeing someone do something fun probably lie with Pierre-Louis and Ramsey. But there's nobody here that you absolutely must game-plan for. BC's linebackers will mop up a lot of the messes and force opponents to slog through some long campaigns in order to score, but they need some help. Someone in the secondary must step up and prove themselves able to cover opponents' #1 receivers, and BC must also find a way to manufacture a pass rush, as they managed just 11 sacks last year.
**!!!!!!
SPECIAL TEAMS
Kicker Nate Freese had the ability but not the consistency in 2011. Freese nailed a 52-yarder last season and four total FGs over 40 yards, but missed a chip-shot 23-yarder that cost BC the game against Duke. (But let's face it: you played like ass if you need a last-second field goal to beat Duke.) Last season was definitely a step back for Freese, who was more consistent but less rangy in 2010. BC will have a very good kicking game if Freese can put it together. 5th-year senior punter Gerald Levano gets his one moment in the sun this year after sitting four years behind Ryan Quigley.
OUTLOOK
This is really the year we find out if Boston College can contend under Frank Spaziani. Most teams would truly envy the kind of stability and experience BC has on offense right now. At least on the field; they've gone through offensive coordinators like Henry VIII and his wives. The lack of continuity in game-planning and schemes may hurt the Eagles. Either that or the players are just not that good, another distinct possibility.
Even with the OC merry-go-round, the on-field continuity on offense takes away a lot of Spaziani's excuses. On defense, there's some replacing to do, but not really any more than most teams. So this year has to be a final referendum on Spaz's ability to contend in Chestnut Hill. This is the profile of a bowl team, except for one thing: for the most part, these players have never accomplished that outside of a couple trips to San Francisco to play in the Nobody Gives A Damn Bowl at the bottom of the ACC's bowl hierarchy. The continuity and the linebackers are big assets; the lack of any major-league playmakers is an obstacle. BC could go bowling this year, but they'd have to pull off a surprise or two to do it, and they face a real uphill battle to improve their standing beyond perennial Hunger Bowl participants.
Wednesday, February 8, 2012
acc baseball preview, part 1
The weekend of the 17th-19th is a big deal. On Friday the 17th, the baseball team kicks off its season in Myrtle Beach with a tourneyish game against Boston College. (That is the team we skip these next two seasons in the ACC schedule, and no, this game won't count in the ACC standings.) The following day, lacrosse is underway with the now-traditional season opener against Drexel. And the lady swimmers will be in the midst of the ACC championships - in which, again, they are favored. (Because I was a high school swimmer, every spring you're subjected to a few posts dedicated to swimming and diving.)
So the next two weeks will be a spring bonanza of sorts, as we move into that season of athletics. We're very fortunate at UVA - whereas other blogs often divide the year into "football season" and "not football season" we have no shortage of excitement.
We'll fire up this spring bonanza with Part 1 of the ACC baseball preview. You won't have to sit through a post on each team - this'll be a three-parter.
BOSTON COLLEGE
Last season:
Record: 17-33 (7-22)
ACC tournament: No
NCAA tournament: No
2012 schedule: Skips Virginia
Names to know: RF Matt McGovern, OF/P Andrew Lawrence, SS Anthony Melchionda
In even-numbered years, the team you skip on the schedule changes. (Dunno how that'll work when Pittsburgh joins, but that's the way it is now.) UVA missed out on two years of crappy-ass Wake Forest and now, just as Wake is improving, we'll now miss out on two years of crappy-ass Boston College.
Like most northern baseball teams, BC isn't any good. Last year's pitching was especially disastrous. The Eagles shuffled their rotation like few teams ever do; out of 10 ACC weekends, only two of them had the same pitching permutation. This year there may be a ray of hope. Do-everything senior Andrew Lawrence - who hails from St. Christopher's in Richmond, same as UVA's freshman DE Thompson Brown - returns, as does sophomore righty Eric Stevens. Stevens pitched out of the pen mostly in 2011, but likely moves to the rotation this year. BC's team ERA was a miserable 5.63 last year, but Lawrence and Stevens pitched in the 4's and allowed a respectable .250ish BA. So there's hope for improvement here.
The Eagles must replace most of their (light-hitting) infield, but will have a veteran outfield. Anthony Melchionda manned the hot corner last year but as a team captain and returning veteran, will play shortstop in 2011. The rest of the infield, though, is left to new starters. Lawrence - the team's best power hitter - will play a corner outfield position when he's not pitching, and the Eagles will lean heavily on Matt McGovern, the team's leading hitter last year at .374. McGovern doesn't bring much power, but he's a good fielder and - since Melchionda was the only other .300 hitter on the roster - an irreplaceable bat. Tom Bourdon is the returning center fielder, a .289 hitter in 2011, and leading base-stealer (although BC rarely attempts to steal), and Marc Perdios started quite a few games last year in left and provides decent depth.
The schedule does BC no favors, as conference favorite UNC replaces UVA on the schedule. Chances are that BC will battle it out with Maryland, again, to stay out of the Atlantic cellar. I think they'll improve by a game or two, but there's no reason to expect them to qualify for the 8-team ACC tournament.
CLEMSON
Last season:
Record: 43-20 (17-13)
ACC tournament: 6th seed; 2-1
NCAA tournament: regional host; 2-2 (lost in regional)
2012 schedule: skips Virginia Tech
Names to know: 1B Richie Shaffer, C Phil Pohl, RHP Kevin Brady, RHP Scott Firth, RHP Jonathan Meyer
Like UVA, Clemson got slammed by the draft and departures; most of last year's lineup is gone. Nevertheless, they're the media's favorite in the Atlantic Division, probably due to a pitching staff that's likely to be the envy of most of the conference.
That staff is led by Kevin Brady, a flamethrower who missed a lot of last season, but was more than effective when on the mound. He allowed just a .218 BA, but more impressively, struck out 33 and walked only one hitter. Scott Firth and Jonathan Meyer will likely be the other weekend starters, and all three of these guys had opponent BAs under .230 and ERAs under 4. The Clemson rotation has a good chance to be the best in the conference, without a weakness on any weekend day. The one shortfall is a dearth of lefthanders, but it probably won't matter.
Discussions of the Clemson offense begin with Richie Shaffer, who Baseball America calls the best raw-power hitter in the conference. With 13 home runs last year, it's easy to see why. Shaffer slugged .577 last year and drew 44 walks, most on the team; the result was an OPS of 1.015. Clemson also has good quality depth behind the plate, returning both Phil Pohl and Spencer Kieboom, who will share catching duties. Pohl is a regular and will play first or DH when not catching. However, other than shortstop Jason Stolz, that's it for returners. Clemson hit so well last year that they'll be very hard-pressed to match that kind of lineup, which might put a crimp in their "favorite" label.
The schedule doesn't help either, trading off Coastal bottom-feeder VT for Coastal contender Miami. But the Tigers do get the other two division contenders - NC State (kinda) and FSU - at home. Truthfully, the Atlantic is a two-team race, and Clemson's pitching staff will keep them in contention all season.
DUKE
Last season:
Record: 26-30 (7-23)
ACC tournament: No
NCAA tournament: No
2012 schedule: skips Wake Forest
Names to know: RHP Marcus Stroman, CF Will Piwnica-Worms, C Jeff Kremer
Last year, despite the fact that they historically suck, I pegged Duke as a surprise ACC tournament team. They repaid my faith by historically sucking. But almost the whole team returns, so....maybe this year?
They've got Marcus Stroman, for starters. Stroman is BA's top 2012 draft prospect in the conference. He played some infield last year, but his pitching arm is what makes him his money. Stroman struck out 90 batters last year and boasted a 2.80 ERA. He's the kind of guy that gives his team a chance no matter who they're playing. I wouldn't even be surprised if Duke pulls the offset-your-rotation strategy and pitches their ace on Sundays to try and steal wins against their opponents' #3 guy. But Duke's Saturday guy is probably going to be Chase Bebout, who's not that bad either.
Duke's center fielder might be a pedestrian .264 hitter, but he stole 21 bases in 23 attempts last year and has far and away the best name in all of ACC baseball: Will Piwnica-Worms. At catcher, there is Jeff Kremer, who led the Blue Devils with a .347 average. However, Duke's hitting isn't ACC-level stuff overall. As a team they slugged just .359 last year, and overall they don't hit for a high enough average to overcome their general lack of power. The team home run leader was 1B/OF Chris Marconcini with just four. UVA is kind of like that in the power department, but hits for a much better average, and that's the difference between going to the NCAA tournament and not even going to the ACC one. (That and way better pitching.) Duke might have a shot at the ACC tourney if they played in the Anemic Division, where only FSU and Clemson pose a major threat, but they're stuck in the Coastal, which means either they or Tech will be in the basement.
FLORIDA STATE
Last season:
Record: 46-19 (19-11)
ACC tournament: 2nd seed; 2-2 (lost championship game)
NCAA tournament: super-regional host; 4-2 (lost in super-regional)
2012 schedule: skips North Carolina
Names to know: RF James Ramsey, 1B Jayce Boyd, 2B Devon Travis
It really is stupid that we spent the last two years not playing one of the worst teams in the league and will spend the next two years also not playing one of the worst teams in the league, and meanwhile FSU's skip buddy was Georgia Tech and now will be North Carolina. Clemson can't be pleased about that, either.
Speaking of Clemson, though, here we have their major opposition in the Anemic Division, and their opposite as well. FSU won't have any trouble finding hitters to send to the plate, but they spent all of last year having one ace pitcher and hunting for Saturday and Sunday guys to back him up. Now that ace (Sean Gilmartin) is gone and the Noles have to piece together a rotation from a lot of misfit parts. Hunter Scantling is probably the first place to look, and there are other possibilities - Gary Merians, who allowed a .292 BA; lefty Brian Busch, who along with Scott Sitz pitched their way right out of the rotation in the first place; Robert Benincasa (no relation to UVA laxer Ryan), who has decent numbers but a slight penchant for pitching taterballs.
But the lineup looks like the usual Florida State murderer's row. Start with all-purpose hitter James Ramsey, who led the team in just about everything and put together a .364-10-67 stat line. 1B Jayce Boyd also drove in 60 runs, and Devon Travis was a .329 hitter as well (though a bit of a butcher in the field.) This is, even in the new dead-bat era, a team that lives on the home run. In 2011 there was a weird cliff on the FSU stat sheet where the top five hitters hit .321 or better and the sixth guy hit .264, but there was no such drop-off in the slugging department.
It's safe to assume FSU will find hitters to replace those they lost, and those that remain make up an excellent core. And not playing UNC is a big advantage. But the pitching - eeesh. It's problematic. It's why FSU isn't being picked by anyone to win the division.
So the next two weeks will be a spring bonanza of sorts, as we move into that season of athletics. We're very fortunate at UVA - whereas other blogs often divide the year into "football season" and "not football season" we have no shortage of excitement.
We'll fire up this spring bonanza with Part 1 of the ACC baseball preview. You won't have to sit through a post on each team - this'll be a three-parter.
BOSTON COLLEGE
Last season:
Record: 17-33 (7-22)
ACC tournament: No
NCAA tournament: No
2012 schedule: Skips Virginia
Names to know: RF Matt McGovern, OF/P Andrew Lawrence, SS Anthony Melchionda
In even-numbered years, the team you skip on the schedule changes. (Dunno how that'll work when Pittsburgh joins, but that's the way it is now.) UVA missed out on two years of crappy-ass Wake Forest and now, just as Wake is improving, we'll now miss out on two years of crappy-ass Boston College.
Like most northern baseball teams, BC isn't any good. Last year's pitching was especially disastrous. The Eagles shuffled their rotation like few teams ever do; out of 10 ACC weekends, only two of them had the same pitching permutation. This year there may be a ray of hope. Do-everything senior Andrew Lawrence - who hails from St. Christopher's in Richmond, same as UVA's freshman DE Thompson Brown - returns, as does sophomore righty Eric Stevens. Stevens pitched out of the pen mostly in 2011, but likely moves to the rotation this year. BC's team ERA was a miserable 5.63 last year, but Lawrence and Stevens pitched in the 4's and allowed a respectable .250ish BA. So there's hope for improvement here.
The Eagles must replace most of their (light-hitting) infield, but will have a veteran outfield. Anthony Melchionda manned the hot corner last year but as a team captain and returning veteran, will play shortstop in 2011. The rest of the infield, though, is left to new starters. Lawrence - the team's best power hitter - will play a corner outfield position when he's not pitching, and the Eagles will lean heavily on Matt McGovern, the team's leading hitter last year at .374. McGovern doesn't bring much power, but he's a good fielder and - since Melchionda was the only other .300 hitter on the roster - an irreplaceable bat. Tom Bourdon is the returning center fielder, a .289 hitter in 2011, and leading base-stealer (although BC rarely attempts to steal), and Marc Perdios started quite a few games last year in left and provides decent depth.
The schedule does BC no favors, as conference favorite UNC replaces UVA on the schedule. Chances are that BC will battle it out with Maryland, again, to stay out of the Atlantic cellar. I think they'll improve by a game or two, but there's no reason to expect them to qualify for the 8-team ACC tournament.
CLEMSON
Last season:
Record: 43-20 (17-13)
ACC tournament: 6th seed; 2-1
NCAA tournament: regional host; 2-2 (lost in regional)
2012 schedule: skips Virginia Tech
Names to know: 1B Richie Shaffer, C Phil Pohl, RHP Kevin Brady, RHP Scott Firth, RHP Jonathan Meyer
Like UVA, Clemson got slammed by the draft and departures; most of last year's lineup is gone. Nevertheless, they're the media's favorite in the Atlantic Division, probably due to a pitching staff that's likely to be the envy of most of the conference.
That staff is led by Kevin Brady, a flamethrower who missed a lot of last season, but was more than effective when on the mound. He allowed just a .218 BA, but more impressively, struck out 33 and walked only one hitter. Scott Firth and Jonathan Meyer will likely be the other weekend starters, and all three of these guys had opponent BAs under .230 and ERAs under 4. The Clemson rotation has a good chance to be the best in the conference, without a weakness on any weekend day. The one shortfall is a dearth of lefthanders, but it probably won't matter.
Discussions of the Clemson offense begin with Richie Shaffer, who Baseball America calls the best raw-power hitter in the conference. With 13 home runs last year, it's easy to see why. Shaffer slugged .577 last year and drew 44 walks, most on the team; the result was an OPS of 1.015. Clemson also has good quality depth behind the plate, returning both Phil Pohl and Spencer Kieboom, who will share catching duties. Pohl is a regular and will play first or DH when not catching. However, other than shortstop Jason Stolz, that's it for returners. Clemson hit so well last year that they'll be very hard-pressed to match that kind of lineup, which might put a crimp in their "favorite" label.
The schedule doesn't help either, trading off Coastal bottom-feeder VT for Coastal contender Miami. But the Tigers do get the other two division contenders - NC State (kinda) and FSU - at home. Truthfully, the Atlantic is a two-team race, and Clemson's pitching staff will keep them in contention all season.
DUKE
Last season:
Record: 26-30 (7-23)
ACC tournament: No
NCAA tournament: No
2012 schedule: skips Wake Forest
Names to know: RHP Marcus Stroman, CF Will Piwnica-Worms, C Jeff Kremer
Last year, despite the fact that they historically suck, I pegged Duke as a surprise ACC tournament team. They repaid my faith by historically sucking. But almost the whole team returns, so....maybe this year?
They've got Marcus Stroman, for starters. Stroman is BA's top 2012 draft prospect in the conference. He played some infield last year, but his pitching arm is what makes him his money. Stroman struck out 90 batters last year and boasted a 2.80 ERA. He's the kind of guy that gives his team a chance no matter who they're playing. I wouldn't even be surprised if Duke pulls the offset-your-rotation strategy and pitches their ace on Sundays to try and steal wins against their opponents' #3 guy. But Duke's Saturday guy is probably going to be Chase Bebout, who's not that bad either.
Duke's center fielder might be a pedestrian .264 hitter, but he stole 21 bases in 23 attempts last year and has far and away the best name in all of ACC baseball: Will Piwnica-Worms. At catcher, there is Jeff Kremer, who led the Blue Devils with a .347 average. However, Duke's hitting isn't ACC-level stuff overall. As a team they slugged just .359 last year, and overall they don't hit for a high enough average to overcome their general lack of power. The team home run leader was 1B/OF Chris Marconcini with just four. UVA is kind of like that in the power department, but hits for a much better average, and that's the difference between going to the NCAA tournament and not even going to the ACC one. (That and way better pitching.) Duke might have a shot at the ACC tourney if they played in the Anemic Division, where only FSU and Clemson pose a major threat, but they're stuck in the Coastal, which means either they or Tech will be in the basement.
FLORIDA STATE
Last season:
Record: 46-19 (19-11)
ACC tournament: 2nd seed; 2-2 (lost championship game)
NCAA tournament: super-regional host; 4-2 (lost in super-regional)
2012 schedule: skips North Carolina
Names to know: RF James Ramsey, 1B Jayce Boyd, 2B Devon Travis
It really is stupid that we spent the last two years not playing one of the worst teams in the league and will spend the next two years also not playing one of the worst teams in the league, and meanwhile FSU's skip buddy was Georgia Tech and now will be North Carolina. Clemson can't be pleased about that, either.
Speaking of Clemson, though, here we have their major opposition in the Anemic Division, and their opposite as well. FSU won't have any trouble finding hitters to send to the plate, but they spent all of last year having one ace pitcher and hunting for Saturday and Sunday guys to back him up. Now that ace (Sean Gilmartin) is gone and the Noles have to piece together a rotation from a lot of misfit parts. Hunter Scantling is probably the first place to look, and there are other possibilities - Gary Merians, who allowed a .292 BA; lefty Brian Busch, who along with Scott Sitz pitched their way right out of the rotation in the first place; Robert Benincasa (no relation to UVA laxer Ryan), who has decent numbers but a slight penchant for pitching taterballs.
But the lineup looks like the usual Florida State murderer's row. Start with all-purpose hitter James Ramsey, who led the team in just about everything and put together a .364-10-67 stat line. 1B Jayce Boyd also drove in 60 runs, and Devon Travis was a .329 hitter as well (though a bit of a butcher in the field.) This is, even in the new dead-bat era, a team that lives on the home run. In 2011 there was a weird cliff on the FSU stat sheet where the top five hitters hit .321 or better and the sixth guy hit .264, but there was no such drop-off in the slugging department.
It's safe to assume FSU will find hitters to replace those they lost, and those that remain make up an excellent core. And not playing UNC is a big advantage. But the pitching - eeesh. It's problematic. It's why FSU isn't being picked by anyone to win the division.
Monday, January 30, 2012
untracked is not a word
However, announcers would be using it right now to describe the state of affairs of UVA basketball, and the next time I see one (which will be the first) I'm gonna ask how they'd like to ride a train that got untracked.
Regardless, we know what they mean: things are going the way you want them to. I do not subscribe to the theory that the Boston College game "was closer than the final score." You may describe a game like that if it's close at the end and then we hit a whole bunch of free throws brought on by clock-stopping fouls. When you go on a 22-5 run to seal it up and it's five instead of three only because BC hit a meaningless jumper over our five-foot-something walk-on, it's perfectly fair to accept the final score as a proper one. Yes, the game was close three-quarters of the way. But look at it like this: if we'd started the game with a 22-5 run and then the last 30 minutes were dead even, the story would be how UVA "coasted" to an easy win that was never in doubt. Good teams blow up on bad ones, that's how things go.
That run was essentially the difference between Brick Sammy and Splash Sammy. That's the Z Factor. UVA could never have played the NC State game at the relatively frenetic early pace* and actually been in the lead at halftime without Sammy hitting threes. Likewise, the whole floor opened up against Boston College once Sammy knocked one down. Suddenly a whole galaxy of offensive options are open to us. This team is Sweet-16 capable when Sammy Zeglinski hits his jump shots, because he's the guy opponents don't game-plan for.
We're now in the middle of a stretch, starting with the BC game, where we alternate a theoretically easy game with a theoretically difficult one. So winning the difficult ones are a big deal. NC State is a difficult one, and you have to be encouraged by a game on the road where:
-- our second-biggest strength - defensive rebounding - wasn't working at all,
-- putting two and two together (the crowd not sounding frighteningly loud on TV plus Tony Bennett's description of the atmosphere as "festive") we come up with the extreme likelihood that our guys were hearing a lot of, um, interesting language from the student section,
-- an intelligent guy like Akil Mitchell calls the State players "borderline dirty" and says it in such a way that he knows he might get in trouble for saying it and doesn't care**
and yet we come out ahead. Don't care if it makes my heart bruise my ribs from the inside. Have some beer and settle down in there. It doesn't get any easier on the road, with the next two trips being to Tallahassee and Chapel Hill, so I'll take 'em where I can get 'em. Before the conference schedule began, you remember, I split the season's games up into two halves, one of mostly foregone conclusions and the other where the year would be maked or breaked. The "foregone" half has gone as assumed, and we're 2-1 in the important half. That means: go 3-2 in the rest of the important half and we're right where we want to be.
We'll finish today's basketball discussion with a little exercise. You're a basketball coach and your team is down by 1 with eight seconds to go and you have the ball. Who would you least rather be facing? Yeah, ditto.
*at one point in the first half the announcers made note of NC State playing a zone defense and suggested they were doing it "to slow Virginia down." I'll take "wacky basketball" for $400, Alex. "This school has the politest student section in the ACC." "What is Maryland?" Correct!
**and still NC State fans are whining about the refs. They let you take five steps with the ball while trying to inbound it. 99.9% of referees call that traveling, because they know what the rule book says. Then again, Roger Ayers is the same highly observant rocket scientist that let Louisiana-Lafayette put six guys on the court on the game-winning play. So.
***********************************************
- In a rare moment of candidness about his lineups, Brian O'Connor told Jeff White about this season's starting rotation, among other lineup revelations. It comes down to three righties (Branden Kline, Whit Mayberry, and juco addition Joel Effertz) and two lefties (Kyle Crockett and Scott Silverstein.) Kline and Crockett are locks. That's Friday-Saturday right there. If I were guessing right now I'd give Mayberry the solid edge for Sunday. BOC has talked in the past about being happy to see Mayberry taking no prisoners in attacking the plate, which is the BOC/Karl Kuhn way. Nibbling gets you banished to batting practice pitcher. Mayberry does a good job of attacking even without ideal stuff.
I would guess Effertz will land the weekday starter spot. If Silverstein starts, it leaves us without any remotely proven lefty bullpen options. (These coaches are not actually the type to obsess over lefty-righty matchups, though.) Effertz, by the way, comes from the same juco that sent us Cody Winiarski, and spent a year at Arizona before that.
By the way, I can't wait to see if Keith Werman gets any time behind the plate this year. Cue jokes about the equipment size and the idea that it's a strike if he can reach it. Humor aside, the Werm is the consummate ballplayer; really, if I told you that a random surprising position player was pulled in for some catcher duty this fall and is now listed as one on the roster, he's one of the least surprising choices. He could play first base or pitch an inning and I wouldn't bat an eye.
-- The TV schedule for the lacrosse season came out last week, and it's the same as last year with two additions: Stony Brook and Penn both on ESPN3. (Last year, Stony Brook wasn't on TV at all and Penn was on the UVA video service, which I sure hope returns this spring.) Otherwise all the usual suspects - three ACC games plus all the marquee matchups. This is what is known as a step in the right direction. I don't necessarily care for the TV-driven expansion of the ACC to 14 teams, but I can more than put up with it if it means eventually 100% of UVA lacrosse will be in front of my eyes. Add that to the seven televised baseball games (plus the ACC tournament) and you have the makings of a quality spring.
Speaking of lacrosse, on Thursday I plan to unveil a KenPom-esque math system for evaluating the college lax teams. Like KenPom's system for basketball, it is intended to be a tempo-free way of determining the quality of offense and defense each team plays. Should be fun if you're a math nerd.
-- BC Interruption had an interesting discussion on the future of the ACC basketball schedule, which will almost certainly be 18 games. The question on the table was: what to do about the permanent rotation buddies? Currently UVA plays two games every year against VT and Maryland, which is how it ought to be; you can see the rest of the pairings at BCI. The ACC will discuss going to one permanent buddy (which would certainly pair us with VT) but more likely will go to three. In BCI's world, we get Syracuse added to the rotation. I wouldn't exactly be fired up about adding that awesome of a team to the schedule as a guaranteed twice-a-year thing, but then I can understand wanting to make sure the schedule was nice and tough for maximum SOS purposes. But if you buy the north-middle-south alignment they have (which makes a lot of sense), then the only options to add are BC or the two Big East newcomers. So.
-- Did I miss something? It wouldn't be the first time. Regardless, here is Oday Aboushi on crutches. I don't know how old the picture is or what - it was tweeted a couple hours ago by Connor McCartin - or if it's an injury that'll last through the spring or anything at all really, but there it is. If running around in circles and waving your hands in the air is your thing (and let's face it we're UVA football fans so whose thing is that not?) then you are hereby licensed for twenty seconds of that.
-- In the "it's pronounced Jop" department, here is a free throw shot by the erstwhile UVA recruit. Even Mason Plumlee thinks that's shitty. The best part is he still got the customary high fives from teammates.
Regardless, we know what they mean: things are going the way you want them to. I do not subscribe to the theory that the Boston College game "was closer than the final score." You may describe a game like that if it's close at the end and then we hit a whole bunch of free throws brought on by clock-stopping fouls. When you go on a 22-5 run to seal it up and it's five instead of three only because BC hit a meaningless jumper over our five-foot-something walk-on, it's perfectly fair to accept the final score as a proper one. Yes, the game was close three-quarters of the way. But look at it like this: if we'd started the game with a 22-5 run and then the last 30 minutes were dead even, the story would be how UVA "coasted" to an easy win that was never in doubt. Good teams blow up on bad ones, that's how things go.
That run was essentially the difference between Brick Sammy and Splash Sammy. That's the Z Factor. UVA could never have played the NC State game at the relatively frenetic early pace* and actually been in the lead at halftime without Sammy hitting threes. Likewise, the whole floor opened up against Boston College once Sammy knocked one down. Suddenly a whole galaxy of offensive options are open to us. This team is Sweet-16 capable when Sammy Zeglinski hits his jump shots, because he's the guy opponents don't game-plan for.
We're now in the middle of a stretch, starting with the BC game, where we alternate a theoretically easy game with a theoretically difficult one. So winning the difficult ones are a big deal. NC State is a difficult one, and you have to be encouraged by a game on the road where:
-- our second-biggest strength - defensive rebounding - wasn't working at all,
-- putting two and two together (the crowd not sounding frighteningly loud on TV plus Tony Bennett's description of the atmosphere as "festive") we come up with the extreme likelihood that our guys were hearing a lot of, um, interesting language from the student section,
-- an intelligent guy like Akil Mitchell calls the State players "borderline dirty" and says it in such a way that he knows he might get in trouble for saying it and doesn't care**
and yet we come out ahead. Don't care if it makes my heart bruise my ribs from the inside. Have some beer and settle down in there. It doesn't get any easier on the road, with the next two trips being to Tallahassee and Chapel Hill, so I'll take 'em where I can get 'em. Before the conference schedule began, you remember, I split the season's games up into two halves, one of mostly foregone conclusions and the other where the year would be maked or breaked. The "foregone" half has gone as assumed, and we're 2-1 in the important half. That means: go 3-2 in the rest of the important half and we're right where we want to be.
We'll finish today's basketball discussion with a little exercise. You're a basketball coach and your team is down by 1 with eight seconds to go and you have the ball. Who would you least rather be facing? Yeah, ditto.
*at one point in the first half the announcers made note of NC State playing a zone defense and suggested they were doing it "to slow Virginia down." I'll take "wacky basketball" for $400, Alex. "This school has the politest student section in the ACC." "What is Maryland?" Correct!
**and still NC State fans are whining about the refs. They let you take five steps with the ball while trying to inbound it. 99.9% of referees call that traveling, because they know what the rule book says. Then again, Roger Ayers is the same highly observant rocket scientist that let Louisiana-Lafayette put six guys on the court on the game-winning play. So.
***********************************************
- In a rare moment of candidness about his lineups, Brian O'Connor told Jeff White about this season's starting rotation, among other lineup revelations. It comes down to three righties (Branden Kline, Whit Mayberry, and juco addition Joel Effertz) and two lefties (Kyle Crockett and Scott Silverstein.) Kline and Crockett are locks. That's Friday-Saturday right there. If I were guessing right now I'd give Mayberry the solid edge for Sunday. BOC has talked in the past about being happy to see Mayberry taking no prisoners in attacking the plate, which is the BOC/Karl Kuhn way. Nibbling gets you banished to batting practice pitcher. Mayberry does a good job of attacking even without ideal stuff.
I would guess Effertz will land the weekday starter spot. If Silverstein starts, it leaves us without any remotely proven lefty bullpen options. (These coaches are not actually the type to obsess over lefty-righty matchups, though.) Effertz, by the way, comes from the same juco that sent us Cody Winiarski, and spent a year at Arizona before that.
By the way, I can't wait to see if Keith Werman gets any time behind the plate this year. Cue jokes about the equipment size and the idea that it's a strike if he can reach it. Humor aside, the Werm is the consummate ballplayer; really, if I told you that a random surprising position player was pulled in for some catcher duty this fall and is now listed as one on the roster, he's one of the least surprising choices. He could play first base or pitch an inning and I wouldn't bat an eye.
-- The TV schedule for the lacrosse season came out last week, and it's the same as last year with two additions: Stony Brook and Penn both on ESPN3. (Last year, Stony Brook wasn't on TV at all and Penn was on the UVA video service, which I sure hope returns this spring.) Otherwise all the usual suspects - three ACC games plus all the marquee matchups. This is what is known as a step in the right direction. I don't necessarily care for the TV-driven expansion of the ACC to 14 teams, but I can more than put up with it if it means eventually 100% of UVA lacrosse will be in front of my eyes. Add that to the seven televised baseball games (plus the ACC tournament) and you have the makings of a quality spring.
Speaking of lacrosse, on Thursday I plan to unveil a KenPom-esque math system for evaluating the college lax teams. Like KenPom's system for basketball, it is intended to be a tempo-free way of determining the quality of offense and defense each team plays. Should be fun if you're a math nerd.
-- BC Interruption had an interesting discussion on the future of the ACC basketball schedule, which will almost certainly be 18 games. The question on the table was: what to do about the permanent rotation buddies? Currently UVA plays two games every year against VT and Maryland, which is how it ought to be; you can see the rest of the pairings at BCI. The ACC will discuss going to one permanent buddy (which would certainly pair us with VT) but more likely will go to three. In BCI's world, we get Syracuse added to the rotation. I wouldn't exactly be fired up about adding that awesome of a team to the schedule as a guaranteed twice-a-year thing, but then I can understand wanting to make sure the schedule was nice and tough for maximum SOS purposes. But if you buy the north-middle-south alignment they have (which makes a lot of sense), then the only options to add are BC or the two Big East newcomers. So.
-- Did I miss something? It wouldn't be the first time. Regardless, here is Oday Aboushi on crutches. I don't know how old the picture is or what - it was tweeted a couple hours ago by Connor McCartin - or if it's an injury that'll last through the spring or anything at all really, but there it is. If running around in circles and waving your hands in the air is your thing (and let's face it we're UVA football fans so whose thing is that not?) then you are hereby licensed for twenty seconds of that.
-- In the "it's pronounced Jop" department, here is a free throw shot by the erstwhile UVA recruit. Even Mason Plumlee thinks that's shitty. The best part is he still got the customary high fives from teammates.
Labels:
basketball schedule,
boston college,
crockett,
effertz,
kline,
mayberry,
mitchell,
nc state,
silverstein,
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zeglinski
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