That title could easily refer to the lacrosse debacle Sunday, but truth is, figuring that out would be a waste of words. The same things that were wrong with UVA lacrosse all season (including, by the way, a seeming lack of interest from the coaching staff in fixing fundamental mistakes) were also wrong on Sunday, plus Matt Barrett made less than one save. Barrett had been keeping the Hoos in games all season. When headstands from the goalie were absent, the whole house of cards plopped to the ground ignominiously.
Nope, this is about baseball, which I've set a record for not talking about this year. It's a little harder to follow this year because I refused to fork out real money for the amateurish production that is Cavaliers Live. On the occasions when they've been on real TV, it's been painful to watch. A team that was comfortably in the preseason top five now is not even a lock to be top ten in the 14-team conference - which would put them outside the ACC tournament.
It's very flattering that UVA has the kind of program where as long as you return enough players, your replacements are assumed to be good enough to carry you to the elite ranks again. All the same, given the questions faced by the bullpen and the outfield this preseason, ultra-lofty expectations probably shouldn't have been thrust onto this team. A top-25 selection would've made sense.
Once the injury bug got its hooks into this team, though, it never let go. And it kept on biting during the season. Joe McCarthy and Nathan Kirby are arguably the team's biggest star power. McCarthy missed a huge chunk of the season with a back injury and has not at all returned to form since picking up a bat again. Kirby was humming along very nicely (though not quite dominant, which was contributing a bit to the team's swoon) when his lats said "screw you buddy" and shut him down for the season. Add John LaPrise - a .348 hitter last year - to that mix. What that left us was just four of last year's starters - counting the pitching rotation - that didn't either get hurt or go pro. Kenny Towns, Daniel Pinero, Brandon Waddell, and Josh Sborz. That's it.
And then all the replacements got hurt, too. Jack Gerstenmaier was on track for a starting job until his hamstring said nah. Derek Casey had settled very nicely into the weekday starter's role when that went south on him, too. Casey, in fact, was slated to move into the weekend job with Kirby just recently out of the lineup, and his start against Longwood on a Tuesday was supposed to be a shortish one so he could be ready that Sunday. Ernie Clement, the usual starter at second base, missed a handful of games, and Matt Thaiss hasn't been able to help out with the catching, being limited to playing first base by a wonky hip. (That said, Thaiss has been unquestionably the MVP at the plate this year.)
Here's the wacky little secret, though: This team isn't hitting that much worse than last year. Last year's team? Not overwhelming at the plate. Good enough to win in front of the absurdly good pitching that propped it up. It really feels like they're hitting worse, and maybe the better pitching in the postseason takes your numbers down some. (That said, that's not really the case last year, not so's you'd notice.)
But, runs per game in 2015 is 5.39; in 2014 it was 5.48. This year's slash line: .273/.360/.381. Last year: .280/.375/.377. Those aren't real differences. A real difference would be as compared to 2013, where the bats pushed across 10.9 runs a game and batted .312/.408/.463.
Thing is, 2013 had that amazing hitting and decent pitching. 2014 had amazing pitching and decent hitting. Both were enough to carry the team a long, long way. This team has decent hitting and decent pitching. Add a dash of not being so good in the clutch - real big surprise for a team relying much more heavily than usual on freshmen - and you get a team whose record is.... decent.
This all puts UVA in a funny place: the bubble. For both the ACC and NCAA tournaments. I'm not sure they can make the latter if they miss the former; the Hoos are trying to fend off Wake Forest for the final spot, although the conference is so tight this year that a whole bunch of higher seeds are in play. (Which don't much matter, because 7 through 10 are all in the same boat. They'll play one game to try and get to the pool play.) Should the Hoos win their way into the ACC tourney, they ought to hear good news from the NCAA committee as well - though it'd come in the form of a 3 seed somewhere. We'll take it. Freshman experience and all that. Next year, when the team has to stop putting a bunch of guys in roles they weren't meant to play (all those injuries wreaked absolute havoc on the rotation and bullpen, for example, and not just on the guys who can't go) things should be back to normal.
Showing posts with label pinero. Show all posts
Showing posts with label pinero. Show all posts
Thursday, May 14, 2015
Thursday, July 25, 2013
2013 baseball recruiting class, part 2
Continuing the series begun last week, this post will serve as sort of a closing-down of the offseason, even though it's only July; tomorrow begins the ACC football previews, which we'll intersperse with various other football-type things as August rolls along.
Connor Jones - RHP
Great Bridge HS (VA)
Drafted: 21st round, San Diego Padres (628th overall)
By virtue of being the best prospect in the state of Virginia and a potential top-5-round pick (had he not committed to a school where signability is a legit concern for MLB scouts) Connor Jones is easily the most well-known member of the class. (Jones, by the way, ended up just five picks behind UVA senior Reed Gragnani.)
Jones was named the top player in the state by just about everyone who did that, and was a very legit pro prospect. He throws a 91-93 fastball that's reported by multiple sources to have a very good sinking action, a highly desirable trait for both college aces and pro prospects. His second best pitch: probably his breaking ball, and he'll probably need to work some on his changeup before he's ready to be ace material.
That he dropped all the way to the 21st round is a function of his announcement that he would not sign in the MLB draft, not his talent; Keith Law rated him the 25th-best prospect in the draft and called him one of the draft's "few premium right-handed prep arms." Obvious comparisons to a right-handed Nathan Kirby go here, as Jones has the same pedigree that Kirby did coming in. Kirby's fastball proved awfully flat and hittable once he got to Charlottesville, and he spent the season making some headway on that but never really cracking the starting rotation. In-stone predictions for Jones, therefore, would probably be unwise, but it's fair to assume he'll start off right in the mix for innings, whether as a starter or reliever. And he appears to have the mental makeup and dedication to improve and succeed, so even with Kirby as a cautionary tale, there's no reason not to be excited about the possibilities.
Austin Nicely - LHP
Spotswood HS (VA)
Drafted: 10th round, Houston Astros (287th overall)
Nicely is a hard thrower for a lefty and would've made a solid left-handed addition to the staff, but we'll have to file him in the could've-been category; Nicely signed with the Astros for about a $610,000 bonus, which was more than $400,000 above his slot.
Daniel Pinero - INF
Western Tech. Inst. (ON)
Drafted: 20th round, Houston Astros (587th overall)
The 'Stros only went 1-for-2 with UVA prospects, though, as Pinero didn't sign with Houston. Pinero is a big guy whose 6'6" size will probably put him at first base sooner or later, though he does prefer shortstop. Pinero is a key part of Canada's junior national team, and in the 18U Pan Am championships in 2011, made the all-tournament team as a first baseman.
Perfect Game has a high opinion of Pinero, rating him a 10 of 10 as a prospect and suggesting that he does have the athleticism to play short or third base. They also mention multiple times his line-drive hitting ability, and between that and his "projectable" frame (he's kind of long and skinny and at 6'6", 200, he could add another 20-30 pounds) he has potential to be exactly the kind of extra-bases hitter that BOC likes in the middle of the lineup. Pinero might be in line for a few at-bats here and there as a first baseman in 2014, and might get a shot at third base as well; shortstop is out of the question with Brandon Cogswell around. Long-term, that height probably consigns him to first base, but there's a great possibility he follows in Jared King's footsteps as a top-notch defender there and reliable hitter as well.
Jack Roberts - RHP
James River HS (VA)
Undrafted
Roberts can talk with Ben Carraway about what it'll be like to follow in the footsteps of an accomplished older brother at UVA; he is not only the younger brother of perfect-game tosser Will Roberts, but a high school teammate of Nathan Kirby as well. With a name like Jack Roberts, he's the clear winner of this year's Hard to Google Award, but he's got a fastball that sits around 89-90 and still on its upward trajectory, and made Rawlings's all-region first team in the mid-Atlantic. Also of importance: Roberts was the Richmond T-D's male scholar-athlete of the year this spring.
Righties will be a bit more plentiful on the roster next year than southpaws, and Roberts will find himself in a fight for innings. It probably won't be til 2015 that he starts to be a major part of the mix, but at a minimum during his career he should provide good, solid depth.
Matt Thaiss - C
Jackson Memorial HS (NJ)
Drafted: 32nd round, Boston Red Sox (953rd overall)
Nate Irving handled so much of the catching load that it's plain he'll do the same next year, and it's not really even clear that he'll leave after the 2014 season as a junior. With Robbie Coman looking like a decent bet for heir apparent, it's possible Matt Thaiss might have to wait a little while for his chance.
Might not be smart to bet against him either, though. Thaiss's MLB scouting report described him as an "elite defensive catcher" and "has an advanced understanding of the game and plays aggressively." High praise for a prep draft prospect. Thaiss hit in high school for a relatively low average (in the .300s) as compared to a lot of high schoolers that routinely reach the .400s and .500s, but had decent power and went on a rampage in this spring's Carpenter Cup, which is a Philadelphia all-star tournament that pits regional all-star teams from Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware against each other. Thaiss doesn't have much of a path to the lineup as a freshman, but that MLB report is very encouraging and, if it pans out that way, will give Thaiss a clear path to eventually grabbing the starting role.
***************************************************
As a whole, this recruiting class doesn't need to carry the water for the future the way the past couple have done; the way the numbers have been shaking out means we're in a small cycle for this year and will probably see a much bigger class in 2014-15. But there's not much filler here. Connor Jones provides the star power, there's good pitching depth with guys like Adam Bleday and Jack Roberts, and I really like each of the position players' potential to work their way into the starting lineup in the future.
Don't be too worried, this year or any year, about the lack of high-level draftees. UVA has cemented a nasty reputation among MLB teams as a black hole of signability. Guys like Connor Jones drop from the 1st round to the 21st. Players that might be drafted in the mid-20s just aren't bothered with. It took a signing bonus of roughly 450% of the recommended slot to pry Austin Nicely away, and at this point, when a player says before the draft that he's not going to sign, teams take him at his word. It makes draft position a fairly unreliable indicator of our incoming talent level. It's not huge, so this isn't a class I'm over the moon about, but I like it.
Connor Jones - RHP
Great Bridge HS (VA)
Drafted: 21st round, San Diego Padres (628th overall)
By virtue of being the best prospect in the state of Virginia and a potential top-5-round pick (had he not committed to a school where signability is a legit concern for MLB scouts) Connor Jones is easily the most well-known member of the class. (Jones, by the way, ended up just five picks behind UVA senior Reed Gragnani.)
Jones was named the top player in the state by just about everyone who did that, and was a very legit pro prospect. He throws a 91-93 fastball that's reported by multiple sources to have a very good sinking action, a highly desirable trait for both college aces and pro prospects. His second best pitch: probably his breaking ball, and he'll probably need to work some on his changeup before he's ready to be ace material.
That he dropped all the way to the 21st round is a function of his announcement that he would not sign in the MLB draft, not his talent; Keith Law rated him the 25th-best prospect in the draft and called him one of the draft's "few premium right-handed prep arms." Obvious comparisons to a right-handed Nathan Kirby go here, as Jones has the same pedigree that Kirby did coming in. Kirby's fastball proved awfully flat and hittable once he got to Charlottesville, and he spent the season making some headway on that but never really cracking the starting rotation. In-stone predictions for Jones, therefore, would probably be unwise, but it's fair to assume he'll start off right in the mix for innings, whether as a starter or reliever. And he appears to have the mental makeup and dedication to improve and succeed, so even with Kirby as a cautionary tale, there's no reason not to be excited about the possibilities.
Austin Nicely - LHP
Spotswood HS (VA)
Drafted: 10th round, Houston Astros (287th overall)
Nicely is a hard thrower for a lefty and would've made a solid left-handed addition to the staff, but we'll have to file him in the could've-been category; Nicely signed with the Astros for about a $610,000 bonus, which was more than $400,000 above his slot.
Daniel Pinero - INF
Western Tech. Inst. (ON)
Drafted: 20th round, Houston Astros (587th overall)
The 'Stros only went 1-for-2 with UVA prospects, though, as Pinero didn't sign with Houston. Pinero is a big guy whose 6'6" size will probably put him at first base sooner or later, though he does prefer shortstop. Pinero is a key part of Canada's junior national team, and in the 18U Pan Am championships in 2011, made the all-tournament team as a first baseman.
Perfect Game has a high opinion of Pinero, rating him a 10 of 10 as a prospect and suggesting that he does have the athleticism to play short or third base. They also mention multiple times his line-drive hitting ability, and between that and his "projectable" frame (he's kind of long and skinny and at 6'6", 200, he could add another 20-30 pounds) he has potential to be exactly the kind of extra-bases hitter that BOC likes in the middle of the lineup. Pinero might be in line for a few at-bats here and there as a first baseman in 2014, and might get a shot at third base as well; shortstop is out of the question with Brandon Cogswell around. Long-term, that height probably consigns him to first base, but there's a great possibility he follows in Jared King's footsteps as a top-notch defender there and reliable hitter as well.
Jack Roberts - RHP
James River HS (VA)
Undrafted
Roberts can talk with Ben Carraway about what it'll be like to follow in the footsteps of an accomplished older brother at UVA; he is not only the younger brother of perfect-game tosser Will Roberts, but a high school teammate of Nathan Kirby as well. With a name like Jack Roberts, he's the clear winner of this year's Hard to Google Award, but he's got a fastball that sits around 89-90 and still on its upward trajectory, and made Rawlings's all-region first team in the mid-Atlantic. Also of importance: Roberts was the Richmond T-D's male scholar-athlete of the year this spring.
Righties will be a bit more plentiful on the roster next year than southpaws, and Roberts will find himself in a fight for innings. It probably won't be til 2015 that he starts to be a major part of the mix, but at a minimum during his career he should provide good, solid depth.
Matt Thaiss - C
Jackson Memorial HS (NJ)
Drafted: 32nd round, Boston Red Sox (953rd overall)
Nate Irving handled so much of the catching load that it's plain he'll do the same next year, and it's not really even clear that he'll leave after the 2014 season as a junior. With Robbie Coman looking like a decent bet for heir apparent, it's possible Matt Thaiss might have to wait a little while for his chance.
Might not be smart to bet against him either, though. Thaiss's MLB scouting report described him as an "elite defensive catcher" and "has an advanced understanding of the game and plays aggressively." High praise for a prep draft prospect. Thaiss hit in high school for a relatively low average (in the .300s) as compared to a lot of high schoolers that routinely reach the .400s and .500s, but had decent power and went on a rampage in this spring's Carpenter Cup, which is a Philadelphia all-star tournament that pits regional all-star teams from Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware against each other. Thaiss doesn't have much of a path to the lineup as a freshman, but that MLB report is very encouraging and, if it pans out that way, will give Thaiss a clear path to eventually grabbing the starting role.
***************************************************
As a whole, this recruiting class doesn't need to carry the water for the future the way the past couple have done; the way the numbers have been shaking out means we're in a small cycle for this year and will probably see a much bigger class in 2014-15. But there's not much filler here. Connor Jones provides the star power, there's good pitching depth with guys like Adam Bleday and Jack Roberts, and I really like each of the position players' potential to work their way into the starting lineup in the future.
Don't be too worried, this year or any year, about the lack of high-level draftees. UVA has cemented a nasty reputation among MLB teams as a black hole of signability. Guys like Connor Jones drop from the 1st round to the 21st. Players that might be drafted in the mid-20s just aren't bothered with. It took a signing bonus of roughly 450% of the recommended slot to pry Austin Nicely away, and at this point, when a player says before the draft that he's not going to sign, teams take him at his word. It makes draft position a fairly unreliable indicator of our incoming talent level. It's not huge, so this isn't a class I'm over the moon about, but I like it.
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