weekend review

Of the big four sports played in North America, as well as some of the next-tier ones like soccer and lacrosse, baseball is easily the most structured.  That's why it lends itself so well to advanced statistics.  That's also why it's the most prone to bizarrity; in a more free-flowing game like hockey or basketball, there's less of a structure to break free of, which means there's less opportunity for something nutty to happen.  And usually when it does, it's because of the officials.

So you get games like Saturday's against UNC.  It's impressive how fast a pitchers' duel turned into a slugfest.  Whit Mayberry did a great job in five innings of starting, needing only about 60 pitches and moving very efficiently.  Nathan Kirby was great for two innings; unfortunately, he pitched in three, with the wheels coming off in the eighth.  (He wasn't the only one, though; the boys in Carolina blue fell apart at exactly the same time.  And I was impressed in the confidence the coaches put in Kirby, having him pitch through some tough situations in a very tight game.)

Thankfully, UVA scoring runs and then UNC giving them back wasn't the ultimate story.  Carolina boneheadedness was.  UVA's 11th-inning rally started to bear fruit when UNC tried to get the lead runner at third on a sacrifice bunt, and Colin Moran biffed the throw, which of course moved everyone up a bag.  That's how the 11th started; it ended when Skye Bolt hit a deep drive that Mike Papi caught against the wall (saving at least a double), and for whatever reason, the pinch-runner on first never tagged up.  He was nowhere to be found when the ball arrived back at the base to double him off and polish off the game.

You can argue for a while whose fault that was (and we have, believe me) but since none of the replays show where he ended up, it's all speculation.  My guess: he came in thinking there were two outs (there was one) and that Papi's catch was the end of the inning.  And therefore went tearing around the basepaths at the crack of the bat with home plate on the mind.  If that's the case, I blame the first-base coach; I mean, I used to kind of internally roll my eyes in my baseball playing days, when I'd reach first and the coach there would remind me how many outs.  But there's a reason they do that.  I doubt it happened this time.

So with Thursday's game being a carryover of the scorching-bat attack from the Duke series and the VCU midweek game, and UVA scoring 10 runs on Carolina's ace Kent Emanuel (the more-than-heavy implication on the Sabre board is that Emanuel was tipping all his offspeed pitches) the only thing that kept UVA from a sweep was one really lousy inning on Friday.

It's really not that bad a deal, though.  If you buy that there are five real competitors for the ACC title, any of which could win the tourney, UVA is in the tourney pool that has only two of them; us and FSU.  UNC has to deal with both Clemson and NC State.  On the other hand, we do have the only two teams that beat us in a series this year (that would be the two Techs.)

Some other notes in brief:

-- Nate Irving moves like a sloth in molasses, which makes it all the more exciting when he does things like beat out a bunt and score from second on a single to left.

-- Kyle Crockett was absolutely devastating on Thursday.  In retrospect it's a shame we used him Thursday, because he got shelled Friday and might not have if he hadn't pitched the day before, but man: when his curve is working, left-handers look like total dipshits against it.  And let's face it: we all know UNC has a nasty good lineup, and a six-run lead isn't totally safe.  As we sort of learned on Saturday when the Heels overcame a three-run deficit and nearly blew past a four-run one.  So no bagging on BOC for using Crockett to "save" a huge lead in game one.

-- Colin Moran won the ACC POY award over Mike Papi.  I am not sure whether to be enraged or not.  Papi probably had one of the best seasons ever for a non-winner.  I mean, hello, national OBP leader.  (Then again: national RBI leader Moran.)  On the one hand, Papi was probably penalized for not playing the whole season.  He wasn't even a starter at the beginning and sat about 10-12 games entirely.  This is probably part of the reason Joe McCarthy won freshman of the year instead of Skye Bolt.  So in that respect it evens out.  And it wasn't the media voting, it was the coaches, so for once we can't blame Caulton Tudor and his ilk.

On the other hand, the coaches couldn't even agree on which third baseman should be on the all-ACC first team; Moran shared that honor with VT's Chad Pinder.  If he's not definitively the best at his position, is he really the best overall player in the conference?

Oh well; we don't really know if Papi was "definitively the best" outfielder either, and he might well not have been.  Anyway, UVA was well represented on the honors list: Papi, Reed Gragnani, Nick Howard, and Kyle Crockett all made the first team; McCarthy and Branden Cogswell the second team, and UVA took home FOY and COY honors while UNC took pitcher and player of the year.  Of 36 slots on the honorees list, 15 are filled with Hoos or Heels.  Nice especially to see Gragnani honored after a career spent mostly on the injured list.

-- A few other bragfacts from the ACC release on this honors stuff: this is BOC's third COY award in four years and fourth of his UVA tenure.  During that tenure, UVA has only failed to reach 40 wins twice; we got 39 those times.

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-- Clifton Richardson's impending transfer is definitely one of the more disappointing ones of late.  I think pretty much all of us had high hopes for his future.  It doesn't hurt the depth too badly, but Richardson had more potential than either of the backs in front of him on the chart.  Even if Taquan Mizzell was likely going to ensure Richardson never hit the top of the food chain.  It leaves basically four backs on the roster for 2013, all of whom will almost certainly see the field at some point.  Kevin Parks and Mizzell likely hold the inside track on the top two slots, and Khalek Shepherd and Kye Morgan will at a bare minimum get garbage time - though probably a little more than that.

-- An article that casts some doubt on the future, as-yet-nonexistent ACC Network.  Consolation prize if the ACC Network falls through: more cash from ESPN, quite probably meant as a way to ensure the viability of the conference since it's really in ESPN's best interest for the ACC to exist.  The article says that works out to about $2 million more per school per year, which after a little math and some assumptions means about $336 million total.  So what I hear from that is that if ESPN can buy out the necessary rights from the other media entities that own them for less than $336 million, it's network city.

-- The men's tennis team plays in its third straight national championship matchup tomorrow against UCLA.  A win would give UVA its first ever title, and extend our national championship streak to five years (UVA has won a national title in something every year since 2009) as well as give us a chance at our first multiple-title year since 1993.

weekend review

I didn't preview the Duke lacrosse game, but an astute comment on the GT post predicted it better than I would have:

I see UVa plays Duke today in lacrosse. I have no doubt we'll beat them, because I have years of experience as a Virginia fan to draw on. It's like in 2002 when the basketball team was totally sucking, then had the nerve to beat Duke just to remind you how badly they were underachieving.

That's the sort of thing that it really does take years of watching UVA sports to think of.  There was only one problem with it: the laxing Hoos found an even more ridiculously Virginia way to let the game play out.  Fail at scoring goals all season, then wait until we play the one team we can't beat to score an enormous flood of them, and still lose by three.  Absolutely fascinating.  Insert the appropriate Anchorman quote here, you know the one.  I really think that has to stand close to "beat top-five Florida State and then score five points at North Carolina" in the Stupid Losses Zone.

This was a game of runs, with the pendulum making several swings between delivering and receiving the ass-beating.  UVA's 13-9 lead ended up being a rather false hope, as Duke scored 10 of the next 11 goals.  Truthfully, the game wasn't as close as the score: UVA was beaten in the shots-on-goal category 35-24, at faceoffs 23-15, total shots 55-40, and cleared only 75% of their opportunities.  I'm beginning to think the only way to find out why Duke always brings out the worst in our defense is to kidnap an assistant coach and torture the answers out of him, but then again I've been reading Game of Thrones lately so my ideas might be a little darker than normal.

UVA has now left itself only one thread of hope for making the NCAA tournament: win all of the next three games.  That's the only way to earn the.500-or-better record the NCAA requires for at-large teams.  And I don't even think that would do it, really.  Of course, at this point if you're still thinking NCAA tournament, there's nothing I can say to shoot down your very misplaced optimism except that your efforts might be better spent finding a team with a golden horseshoe jammed up its ass, like Ohio State football.

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That golden horseshoe team certainly isn't UVA baseball, at least not this weekend.  UVA dominated the Saturday game behind some ridiculously good pitching from Scott Silverstein, who gave up two hits - one of them of the extremely cheap variety - in seven innings, and struck out nine.  I don't trust Silverstein's reconstructed shoulder enough to think that we can always get that kind of performance, but that was one of the better lineups UVA will face or has faced in ACC play.  If he can dominate them he can certainly work some magic on the rest of the conference too.  Given the reputation Silverstein had coming out of high school, file that one under "what could've been" and repeat the UVA mantra, which as always is: "we can't have nice things."

This is not to say that the rest of the pitching was poor, of course: that GT lineup only scored seven runs in the three games.  Brandon Waddell had a nervous-looking start on Friday but then settled down beautifully, and UVA lost 2-1.  Truthfully, I think third-base coach Kevin McMullen ran us right out of that one by sending Derek Fisher home from second on a single to left, whereupon he was cut down at the plate. 

My usual philosophy on sending runners is that coaches should be hyper-aggressive with two outs, and send all 50/50 or even 40/60 chances (because your chances of scoring if you hold the runner are essentially equal to the batting average of the next hitter) but exercise a great deal of caution with less than two outs.  Which was the case with Fisher.  Holding a runner on a grounder (which is what the single was) isn't even cautious, it's just smart: a grounder can and will be charged and the outfielder can come up firing.  It's different if the OF has to go side-to-side to get the ball, and if he's going glove side then you send him without hesitation, but a grounder straight at him is going to get you nailed.  With one out and runners at the corners you have a lot of tools in your toolbox to get that runner home, and Reed Gragnani (the next hitter) is a senior who can be counted on to know the value of a fly ball.  Since the score was 2-1 at that time and the rest of the game saw mostly quiet bats, it turned out to be one of the key plays in the loss.

On Sunday....well, GT basically tossed the dice and won, letting the rain finish up their 3-2 win.  Not a bad strategy when you know your bullpen is just about cashed.  Everyone knew going in that UVA had the deeper pen than GT, which I'm sure played no part whatsoever in the decision not to fit in a doubleheader on Saturday.  The point that UVA certainly had the chance not to let in three runs and the chance to score more than two is stipulated to.  That said, sometimes you lose a series and you're glad to have pulled one win out of it and you hope that team ends up in the opposite bracket of the ACC tournament.  This series left no reason to fear the Jackets should we see them again sometime.

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-- UVA says goodbye today to Paul Jesperson, who made known his intent to transfer out.  Flash back to a couple weeks ago when I projected that Malcolm Brogdon's return to the rotation would almost certainly take a huge chunk out of Jesperson's minutes; a transfer is not all that surprising.  And Jesperson surely has a better idea than you or I about Brogdon's readiness.  We were set to have a full complement of 13 scholarship players next year, but being one short won't kill us until "we can't have nice things" starts to take hold.

The real scholarship logjam is next year's sophomore contingent, which runs seven deep and which Jesperson was not part of.  This is kind of a problem.  It's one that'll probably sort itself out in some fashion, since there's three seasons before they all graduate, but it's still worth keeping an eye on.  There are now three open spots for the year when that group will be seniors (2015-2016) which, if you fill them all up, means you only return six players the next year, plus your recruiting class.  As it would be unwise (not to mention awfully damn tough) to take a seven-man class and repeat the cycle, you see the issue.  I usually scoff at the idea of a mid-career redshirt for a non-injured, non-just-transferred player, because it's exceedingly rare in football and even more so in hoops, but you can see where such a thing would be useful if we could pull it off.  A transfer is the more likely result of that logjam.

At any rate, we do wish Jesperson the best.  Dude made some sacrifices and did everything the right way, and the silver lining for him is that the redshirt year he couldn't take will now come in handy.

-- Very interesting potential development today in the suggestion of an ACC Network that would be announced before next football season.  Whether that means it would actually start right up broadcasting ACC football in 2013, I'm not sure, and I rather doubt it because it takes a while to get it onto all of the potential carriers.  Presumably also they mean a real ACC Network patterned after the BTN and other copycats, and not just a Raycom-like entity calling itself the ACC Network only when it's broadcasting an ACC contest.

The potential benefit to the ACC covers a wide range of possibilities.  I doubt that the foreseeable future would see such a network turn into the money tree that the BTN has been.  For one thing, Big Ten schools are ginormous and have a much larger potential viewership base.  For another, this appears to be in concert with ESPN, which owns ACC broadcast rights from top to bottom.  The BTN is in concert with Fox instead, which means the B1G can play the two entities off against each other.  Having ESPN running the show simply means having the same entity stretching its own reach, and potentially monopolizing content.  How much money would actually flow into ACC coffers is anyone's guess.

However.  Consider Florida State and Clemson, which some people seem to think have half a foot in either the Big 12 or SEC.  The SEC is out of the question for now and the foreseeable future thanks to the blockading efforts of UF, UGA, and USCe, and the only network in the Big 12 is the Longhorn Network.  Which doesn't send a dime anywhere but Austin, Texas.  Say what you will but when one conference has a conference network and one has nothing but a special arrangement for the most arrogant school in the conference, the appeal of one vs. the other is plain to see.

Plus, as one of the posters in that thread points out, an ACC Network might not match the BTN but is likely to be considerably better than any SEC Network.  An SEC network would never get the premier football matchups, and the SEC, relative to the other power conferences, is a basketball wasteland.  And doesn't play lacrosse.  An SEC network could broadcast baseball and have some success there....but outside of that and Mississippi State/Kentucky football games, wouldn't have a lot of interesting programming.  The ACC network would have ten times the appeal in the winter season, and lacrosse in the spring.

I can't vouch one bit for the past veracity of the Syracuse message board poster that that links to, but the folks there seem to take what he says at face value and the Sabre poster who put it there (which is where I found it) swears the guy's legit.  It has very believable vibes, and I'm nothing if not a sucker for believable people telling me everything will be ok in re: the ACC.  It'll be interesting to see the reaction when (or, I suppose, if) it becomes official.

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A recruiting board update is necessary.

-- Added DE J.J. Jackson to blue.  Not highly recruited at the moment but it seems the UVA coaches are dead serious.

-- Added S Kiy Hester to yellow.  Even within the various strata on the recruiting board there are layers of optimism (Connor Strachan, for example, is more of a bluish-green while Bentley Spain is more of a yellowish-green) and Hester is sort of a reddish-yellow.  Still, taking the time to visit Charlottesville is a notable indicator of interest.

-- Moved CB Christopher Murphy from yellow to red.  Getting too much interest to be higher until he does something like visit UVA.

-- Removed QB Caleb Henderson (UNC) and OT Sam Mustipher (ND) from red.

weekend review

Apologies for there being nothing to read yesterday.  The next two weeks might be a little bit sporadic and spotty as it's more or less crunch time on the road to the old MBA.  In fact at the moment I'm procrastinating on about 20 pages' worth of papers to do this instead.  So it'll be a tad short as well.

Plus, if you're reasonably familiar with stuff I've mentioned in the past, you can probably put two and two together and come up with another reason I wrote nothing yesterday.

Reason #2 why this will be short: nothing happened in the lacrosse game that hasn't happened in the past.  I've got lots of material for an end-of-year post, which will be much sooner than we're accustomed to, that may shed some light on why the wheels came off so badly.  I don't know whether it's a psychological bias on my part or what, but it seems like most of the time, winning generates a lot more analyzable results than losing.  Despite the joke that a really bad team can always find new ways to lose, usually what happens is that the team can't do X, Y, or Z, and as long as they can't, they lose.

By contrast, the baseball team has been finding all sorts of interesting ways to win, including three more this weekend.  All involved the long ball and high-scoring games in some fashion, which itself is kind of a new thing for a program that has tended toward station-to-station offense and shutdown pitching to rack up its victories.  Only about halfway through the season, UVA is only six homers shy of the 25 that they've accrued in each of the past two seasons.  (The year before that, 2010, was the final year for the ping-bats, so the comparisons cease to be valid.)  And this latest series was on the road at Wake Forest, so for this weekend at least, the closer fences at Davenport aren't a factor.

It's usually worthy of a headline when a major leaguer homers twice in a game, and it's awfully rare for a UVA player to do it.  Maybe it happens once or twice a season, if that.  So I call it astonishing that Joe McCarthy did exactly that and it was only the third-most interesting home run story of the weekend.  Reed Gragnani's first UVA career home run is an even bigger deal, if you ask me, and it's still only second.  It's Mike Papi taking home the weekend crown with a two-out, two-strike, ninth-inning grand slam to turn a three-run deficit into a one-run lead.  Exactly like you draw it up in your head when you're ten years old.  Put that game on a bigger stage than just a regular-season series against a low-level conference team and it would rival the RALLY TO OMAHA for drama.

This is UVA and we can't have nice things and when we do we can't enjoy them, so we have to talk a bit about the pitching, which I think is in range of reason to worry.  Of the starting pitchers, only Nick Howard had a good outing.  Brandon Waddell gave up six runs and Brian O'Connor had to use up Whit Mayberry in the first game.  Scott Silverstein and Josh Sborz combined for four innings of horror before the bullpen settled it down long enough for Gragnani's eighth-inning tiebreaker.  With Artie Lewicki still a little ways away from returning and a long ways away from being ready to start (think 2014) and Mayberry probably still not yet ready for six innings either, and Trey Oest coming up shaky against VMI during the week, options are very limited if the rotation collapses.  Sborz is still learning his way around a lineup and Nathan Kirby is not happening right now.

So let's just hope there is no collapse.  It's basically sink or swim with what we got.  The solution, if it comes to needing a solution, is probably to keep the starters the way they are and lean on the pen for some long-run innings, and then have the bats do what they have to do.  BOC may be loath to bring Austin Young, Kyle Crockett, or Mayberry forward to take the ball as a starter, but all three are worth three or four good innings a series.  It's not crazy to prefer those be the 6th, 7th, and 8th, instead of the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd.

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Events of the day necessitate a recruiting board update.

-- Moved K Gary Wunderlich from blue to orange.  That would be the event of the day.  Is it a little crazy using a scholarship on a kicker in one of our most limited years yet?  Not when he might be the best rising senior kicker in the country and multiple family members hold UVA degrees.  That he earned three stars on Rivals says something, because kickers don't usually get stars.

-- Moved ATHs M.J. Stewart and Travon McMillian from yellow to green.  I think UVA has a deal of work to do if they want to reel in either of these guys, but they're at least seriously in the conversation.

-- Removed TE Chris Laye (Auburn) and CB D'Andre Payne (Tennessee) from yellow.

-- Added RB Joe Mixon to red.  Would I bet any money on UVA pulling Mixon away from the other coast?  No.  Especially with like 40 other schools trying to do the same.  But there is at least a flicker, and Mixon is talking about waiting all year, which means if the coaches work hard on it they can give themselves a little staying power.

Yes, it remains a much smaller board than it was at this time last year.  Probably had ten more names on it back then.  I don't exactly expect to see a flood of new offers, either.  Slow and steady is the key here, which is why these updates have only been once every two weeks.  The coaches are probably doing almost as much work on the 2015 class as the 2014 one.

charlottesville regional preview

It's basically a known and indisputable fact that the best weekend of March Madness is the first.  That's when they're playing the most basketball.  The same principle applies during the baseball tournament, except it's double-elimination so even more baseball is played.  I can't wait til the Ocho becomes a reality so that the whole thing can be broadcast and I can just take it all in by osmosis.

UVA will host Oklahoma (2 seed), Appalachian State (3 seed), and Army (4 seed) at Davenport Field this weekend, with UVA vs. Army getting things started at 11 AM tomorrow.  (The early start time is because it's gon' rain.)  So you know our opponents, but do you really know them?  You will.

Oklahoma Sooners

Record: 38-22 (13-10 Big 12)
RPI: #28

Lineup:

C: Tanner Toal (.219-1-7)
1B: Evan Mistich (.269-3-32)
2B: Jack Mayfield (.286-3-26)
3B: Garrett Carey (.214-1-23)
SS: Caleb Bushyhead (.254-1-15)
LF: Erik Ross (.295-0-18)
CF: Max White (.356-2-54)
RF: Cody Reine (.268-5-27)
DH: Hunter Lockwood (.250-11-39)

Notes: Lockwood is also a catcher and has played quite a few games there, but the Sooners appear to have settled on Toal behind the plate; Toal has the superior arm.  That leaves Lockwood and Matt Oberste (.311-5-16) to platoon at DH, which is not a great situation for Oklahoma because they're two of the better hitters on the team.

Pitching:

Starters:
LHP Jordan John (8-6, 2.30, 97 Ks)
LHP Dillon Overton (5-3, 3.24, 109 Ks)
RHP Jonathan Gray (8-4, 3.47, 90 Ks)

Bullpen:
LHP Steven Okert (8-7, 2.92, 71 Ks, 4 sv.)
RHP Damien Magnifico (3-1, 3.86, 33 Ks)
RHP Kindle Ladd (0-1, 4.56, 20 Ks)

We meet again.  Probably.  Though Oklahoma has several of the same hitters they brought with them two years ago to the Charlottesville super-regional, this lineup actually bears little resemblance to the one that kept us from reaching Omaha in 2010.  Even though that was the final year for the pingbats (thus making comparisons difficult) the truth is that it's still a much weaker lineup.  Oklahoma has gotten through thus far on the strength of their starting rotation.

It's a very good one.  It has to be; the bullpen is wicked thin.  There are only six pitchers who've thrown more than 20 innings all season, and three of them are their innings-eating starters.  Jordan John will get the start for OU against App. State in the first game, which means that UVA, if we face the Sooners in game 2, will almost certainly bat against Dillon Overton.  Overton is one of those guys like GT's Buck Farmer, who on any given day will either send a parade of hitters shuffling back to the dugout or allow a parade of baserunners to merry-go-round their way around the bases.

More on this later, but OU's relatively weak lineup is a possible reason for Brian O'Connor's surprising (to me) decision to burn Branden Kline in the first game.  Max White is a very, very dangerous three-hole hitter, and Hunter Lockwood's 11 home runs playing in the pitchers' park that OU has - that's very impressive.  Outside of that, though, it's a pedestrian lineup, and OU bats a Duke-esque .269 as a team.

Appalachian State Mountaineers

Record: 39-16 (21-9 SoCon)
RPI: #40

Lineup:

C: Jeremy Dowdy (.271-3-37)
1B: Trey Holmes (.249-6-37)
2B: Hector Crespo (.317-3-23)
3B: Noah Holmes (.229-1-18)
SS: Will Callaway (.330-4-52)
LF: Preston Troutman (.280-0-24)
CF: Tyler Zupcic (.338-2-24)
RF: Tyler Tewell (.375-6-43)
DH: Daniel Kassouf (.345-17-60)

Notes: None

Pitching:

Starters:
RHP Ryan Arrowood (10-0, 4.03, 84 Ks)
RHP Seth Grant (6-3, 3.33, 65 Ks)
LHP Rob Marcello (6-4, 5.19, 45 Ks)

Bullpen:
RHP Nathan Hyatt (1-0, 3.46, 28 Ks, 15 sv.)
RHP Jamie Nunn (5-2, 3.88, 45 Ks)
RHP Tyler Moore (3-2, 5.53, 18 Ks)
RHP David Port (2-1, 5.61, 12 Ks)
LHP Jeffrey Springs (2-0, 4.07, 18 Ks)

The top seed in the Southern Conference tournament, Appy State had a poor showing and was invited to the NCAAs as an at-large.  Probably their ticket was punched way back in February, when they went to Baton Rouge and took a three-game series from LSU by holding the Tigers to just one run in the final two games.

That's the kind of thing that forbids you to take the Mountaineers lightly.  Despite the supposedly weaker competition in the SoCon, I'd take their lineup over OU's any day, not least because I'd get the best hitter in the whole regional: DH Daniel Kassouf.  Certainly his 17 home runs are to be taken seriously.  RF Tyler Tewell is also an outstanding hitter, batting .375.  In all, five of App State's starters made 1st or 2nd team all-conference.

App State also has their conference's pitcher of the year: right-hander Ryan Arrowood.  Arrowood will pitch against Oklahoma in game 1, so if UVA draws the Mountaineers in the second game, the likely moundsman is righty Seth Grant.  Grant has solid numbers, though probably isn't quite the pitcher that OU's Overton is; nevertheless, I'm not sure I wouldn't rather face the Sooners.  When teams beat UVA it's usually not because we can't hit, it's because our pitchers get knocked around.  The Mountaineers could be a worse matchup for us.

Army Black Knights

Record: 41-13 (18-2 PL)
RPI: #112

Lineup:

C: J.T. Watkins (.318-5-31)
1B: Kevin McKague (.389-5-44)
2B: Zach Price (.324-0-24)
3B: Harold Earls (.347-0-22)
SS: Alex Jensen (.259-0-23)
LF: Daniel Cortes (.274-0-23)
CF: Matthew Carter (.250-0-5)
RF: Cody Murtle (.251-4-41)
DH: Mark McCants (.241-2-28)

Notes: McKague is also used occasionally out of the bullpen.

Pitching:

Starters:
RHP Chris Rowley (11-0, 1.97, 76 Ks)
LHP Logan Lee (8-2, 3.28, 60 Ks)
LHP Nick Dignacco (7-2, 3.38, 58 Ks)

Bullpen:
RHP Gunnar Carroll (2-0, 2.45, 40 Ks, 8 sv.)
RHP Alex Robinett (3-1, 2.73, 42 Ks)
RHP Manny Fernandez (4-1, 2.22, 16 Ks)
RHP Andrew Flaherty (3-1, 3.04, 10 Ks)

Everything here comes with the caveat that the Patriot League, as a northern low-major conference, inflates statistics.  That said, those are some eye-popping numbers on Army's ace, Chris Rowley, who'll throw against UVA tomorrow.  (Or today, depending on when you read this.)  Rowley is an efficient ground-ball pitcher; he doesn't walk many batters, and when pitching against Bucknell this year, he threw a seven-inning complete game in 78 minutes and needed only 65 pitches.

That said, all those guys hitting .259 or worse, well, they did that against Patriot League pitching, mostly.  Since it's Kline who got the nod against Army, as long as the dominant version of Kline shows up, they probably won't be able to touch him.  They're a light-hitting team: only 16 dingers all season, and all hit by four players.  Only Kevin McKague has reached double-digit doubles (with 16) and Army as a team slugs only .365.  However, they're very slick with the glove, with one exception: shortstop Alex Jensen has 21 errors.

Fun fact: The Hoos haven't played the USMA since 1913, a 9-3 loss.  So it's time to get revenge for a century-old wound.  Best served cold, etc.  Plus we need to give Jim Reid (Mike London's DC, in case you put football out of your mind) braggin' rights: his son Matt is Army's coach.

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As mentioned, inclement weather in the forecast has moved the games up in the day, and UVA will play at 11 AM.  As the host, we have the option to go first or second, and this is why we go first.  We're much more likely to get our game in.

Now, as for why we're burning up our ace in the first game, against the four seed and contrary to what I consider conventional wisdom?  Possible reasons:

- The possibility that OU and App State won't get their game in til Saturday; therefore, if Kline can eat up a bunch of innings, we'll have a way fresher bullpen than whoever awaits.
- Respect for Chris Rowley; BOC may feel a need to match Army's ace with our ace.
- If we jump on Army early, Kline can be pulled and then used out of the pen as needed later on. (I don't put any stock in this theory, however; it's not likely we'll "jump on" Rowley, and BOC doesn't tend to think in terms of what will happen if the absolute best-case comes to pass.)
- Anticipation that we'll face Oklahoma in game 2, against whom we may not need our ace.

Also a mystery: who starts the second game?  This probably hinges upon the staff's opinion of Scott Silverstein: is he still dependable, or falling apart?  If the former, then they'll go with him; if the latter, they'll try Lewicki and hope to win, which would put Silverstein in a lower-pressure situation.

Our hopes also may hinge on some injury news.  Reed Gragnani may finally be ready to return, giving us some needed flexibility in the lineup.  And the status of Shane Halley, who's morphed from emergency arm to the most dependable guy in the pen, and then missed several weeks, is up in the air.  A deep bullpen is a must in tournament play, and Halley will be badly missed if he can't go.

Because they don't feel like they earned their money if they pick all #1 seeds, a lot of pundits are picking Oklahoma.  There's some logic in that, given OU's formidable starting rotation.  However, this is a regional of flawed teams, and it's also fair to say UVA is the least flawed of the four.  We have a balanced lineup, and pitchers that can shut down any of these teams - if they pitch up to their potential.  UVA will win this regional if that happens.  If not, then Oklahoma will probably claw their way to the supers, one 3-1 game at a time.

series preview: Duke

Date/Time: Fri-Sun, April 20-22; 6:00, 2:00, 1:00

TV: Nada

Record against the Blue Devils: 87-52

Last matchup: UVA 3-0 over Duke (10-0, 3-2, 18-4); 4/15-4/17/11; Charlottesville

Last game: UVA 7, Richmond 5 (4/17); Davidson 8, Duke 4 (4/17)

Last weekend: UNC 3-0 over UVA (1-2, 2-6, 3-5); Md. 2-1 over Duke (2-4, 2-21, 5-3)

National rankings:

Baseball America: UVA unranked, Duke unranked
Collegiate Baseball: UVA unranked, Duke unranked
NCBWA: UVA #27, Duke unranked
Perfect Game: UVA #34, Duke unranked
Coaches: UVA #25, Duke unranked
Composite: UVA unranked, Duke unranked

Duke lineup:

C: Mike Rosenfeld (.308-0-17)
1B: Andy Perez (.310-0-10)**
2B: Mark "Oompa" Lumpa (.300-1-7)
3B: Jordan Betts (.234-2-12)
SS: Angelo La Bruna (.191-0-16)
LF: David Perkins (.200-0-8)
CF: Anthony D'Alessandro (.229-0-5)**
RF: Grant McCabe (.301-0-19)
DH: Jeff Kremer (.302-2-9)

**Some notes on the lineup.  Will Piwnica-Worms, owner of the best name in ACC baseball and by far the best hitter in the Duke lineup, is normally the centerfielder.  He's been limited to PH duty the last two weeks, however.  If he's not in the lineup again this week, very bad new for Duke.  Also: Perez is the more-or-less usual first baseman for the Blue Devils, but - despite being tied for the team BA lead - he was lifted for a pinch hitter last Friday against Maryland and hasn't played since.  That screams injury as well, but I haven't been able to find anything.  If he can't go, I don't know who'll play first on Friday but Marcus Stroman will probably start on the other two days.  He hasn't been used much at the plate this year and is hitting .133.

Pitching probables:

Friday: RHP Branden Kline (5-2, 3.02, 63 Ks) vs. RHP Marcus Stroman (3-3, 2.05, 93 Ks)
Saturday: LHP Scott Silverstein (2-4, 2.79, 38 Ks) vs. LHP Trent Swart (3-5, 4.05, 47 Ks)
Sunday: RHP Artie Lewicki (1-2, 4.85, 29 Ks) vs. RHP Robert Huber (4-3, 3.35, 31 Ks)

So the ACC lacrosse tournament starts tomorrow, but there won't be any preview because I've told you all I know about UNC.  Plus if we get past UNC then it's pretty much likely that Duke awaits, and my prediction for that hypothetical game is obviously Duke by a billion.

So instead, the Duke baseball team.  Revenge for last week?  Nah - Duke is usually bad and this series doesn't tend to draw a crowd in Durham.  They sit at the bottom of the Coastal standings, and have lost a bunch of games to teams like Campbell, Davidson, and Western Carolina.  Still, they're a little odd, in that when I opened up their stats I expected things to look a lot worse.  14-24 teams don't usually have three decent starting pitchers and five guys batting over .300.  Still, there isn't much to look at.

-- UVA at the plate

One reason Duke loses so many games is because they fail to give their starters any run support, and then the bullpen comes in and blows the game open.  Getting to the pen will be the main goal in each of the three games, because it's garbage; the only pitcher really worth a damn is closer David Putman, and maybe - maybe - other-closer Andrew Istler.  (Istler's ERA is pushing 5.00, though.  So.)

That'll be especially important on Friday, with our hitters having to face Marcus Stroman.  Duke may suck, but Stroman is the real deal.  He's got a fastball that sits 95+ and can reach 98, impressive especially for a guy who's only 5'9".  Stroman's numbers across the board are outstanding and he'll almost certainly be a first-round pick this June.  The most impressive, I think, is the eye-popping 93 strikeouts - 12.7 per nine innings.  Stroman is the complete package, and if Branden Kline is on his game, Friday is set up to be a pretty classic pitching duel.  Our hitters need to work some counts and give themselves a couple innings hitting against Duke's pen.

There's nothing too remarkable about Duke's other starters, except maybe for Robert Huber's 5 BB/9 ratio.  They're hittable, not terrible, just kinda there.  They're better than anyone Duke has in the pen, so the goal for Duke will be for those guys to toss a complete game (Huber did it last week against Maryland) and the goal for us at worst will be to work our way to the bullpen.

Reed Gragnani continues to be out, and the length of time he's been out and the fact that he missed time earlier leads me to believe we shouldn't count on him for the rest of the year.  Too bad - we lose a lot of versatility and a very good top-of-the-lineup bat.  So I don't expect any changes from what we've been seeing so far.

-- UVA in the field

The first thing that jumped out at me when I looked at Duke's stats was "hey, they got a lot of .300 hitters."  At least for a team 10 games below .500.  The second thing was "oh, but like none of their hits are bigger than singles."  Indeed, Duke is a very light-hitting team.  Their team average of .265 isn't completely terrible (last in the conference, but not by much), but their team slugging average of .354 is by far the ACC's worst.

In fact, you'll find Duke at the bottom of almost every category.  Somehow, shortstop Angelo La Bruna is third on the team in RBIs despite having a .191 BA and only two extra-base hits (for a SLG of .209.)  The most dangerous hitter they have is Will Piwnica-Worms and he doesn't look very available.  Piwnica-Worms is tied for the team batting lead at .310, and Andy Perez is the other guy and he might not be available either.

Probably the only other guy on the team with dangerous power is third baseman Jordan Betts, who is a little bit of a strikeout machine.  Other than that - well, basically you've got some guys that'll hit some singles and leg out a triple once in a while.  When they get on base, almost all of them might try to steal, so our pitchers need to keep a weather eye on any baserunner.  (Something they've occasionally forgotten.)  But baserunners will be rarer than we're used to in ACC play, too.

-- Outlook

No sugarcoating: This series is a must-sweep.  Duke has a chance in any game with Stroman on the mound, and so Friday will be crucial.  Kline must be able to match him inning for inning - a task well within his reach given Duke's anemic lineup.  After that, it's basically a question of hitting like we know we can hit.  Duke has averaged three runs a game in ACC play, two when not playing Virginia Tech, so getting to about the five-run mark probably wins us the game.  Winning the series 2-1 would still make the season's goal (18 wins) doable, but much more difficult.  Sweep or die.

series preview: Wake Forest

Date/Time: Sat-Mon, 4/7-4/9; 4:00, 1:00, 7:00

TV: Monday on ESPNUVA; first two games on UVA live stream

Record against the Deacons: 71-84

Last matchup: UVA 13, WF 1 (5/25/11); Durham, NC (ACC tournament)

Last game: UVA 15, JMU 5 (4/4); UNC 4, WF 3 (4/1)

Last weekend: NCSt 2-1 over UVA (1-5, 5-2, 6-7); UNC 2-1 over WF (7-6, 3-7, 3-4)

National rankings:

Baseball America: UVA unranked; WF unranked
Collegiate Baseball: UVA unranked; WF unranked
NCBWA: UVA #29; WF unranked
Perfect Game: UVA #48; WF unranked
Coaches: UVA unranked; WF unranked

Opposing blogs: Blogger So Dear

Wake Forest lineup:

C: Brett Armour (.272-1-9)
1B: Carlos Lopez (.336-8-35)
2B: Conor Keniry (.344-0-12)
3B: Mark Rhine (.310-1-12)
LF: Evan Stephens (.333-1-14)
CF: Mac Williamson (.272-9-25)
RF: James Harris (.188-1-11)
DH: Charlie Morgan (.274-3-22)

Pitching probables:

Saturday: LHP Scott Silverstein (2-3, 2.68, 33 Ks) vs. LHP Tim Cooney (3-2, 4.06, 44 Ks)
Sunday: RHP Branden Kline (4-2, 3.09, 45 Ks) vs. RHP Justin Van Grouw (1-3, 5.35, 29 Ks)
Monday: RHP Artie Lewicki (1-1, 4.31, 25 Ks) vs. LHP Brian Holmes (5-0, 1.87, 44 Ks)

Happy Opening Day!  It is for me, anyway, as this is being typed while watching the Tigers take on the Red Sox in (finally) a game that matters.

The end of the winter baseball drought is apropos; it's been a long time since the major leagues played games that matter, but it's been even longer since the last time UVA and Wake Forest got together for a baseball series.  We did play them once last year in the ACC tournament, and the game ended via mercy rule (owing to the necessity of playing a lot of games on one day in one ballpark) and no doubt the Deacons remember that.  Otherwise, it's been since 2009.  March of '09, to be exact, when the Hoos swept the ACC opening series by a combined score of 47-13.  But this is a much better Wake Forest team than you might remember.

This weekend, by the way, is one of those with the schedule bumped a day backwards for TV.  It won't start til Saturday, and Monday's game is on ESPNU.

-- UVA at the plate

I suspect Wake Forest of being one of those teams that slides their ace to the back of the rotation in order to improve their chances of snagging a win.  Evidence: Sunday (Monday) starter Brian Holmes has every statistic in his favor and tossed a no-hitter against Marshall earlier this year.  I don't think they're bad enough anymore that they should have to do that, but whatever.  The national TV audience will probably see Wake's best shot.

Saturday and Monday, UVA will see a couple of tough-to-hit lefties, each with 44 strikeouts.  Both can be worked for a walk, though, too.  Tim Cooney is considered to have the best stuff in the Wake rotation, with a four-pitch arsenal, and Holmes throws a heavy fastball that's been hard to hit.  On Sunday, the only right-hander in the rotation takes the mound, and this is the day the Hoos have the best chance of teeing off; Justin Van Grouw has been maddeningly inconsistent this season.

So has the Wake bullpen.  It's been very up and down.  Closer Michael Dimock has eight saves but a 4.50 ERA.  He's also struck out 26 in 24 innings.

From the UVA side of things, Reed Gragnani didn't play at all against JMU this week, and if it's anything to do with his nagging injuries he's been dealing with this year, then it's unlikely he'll play this weekend, too.  With two southpaws on the hill, lefty Mike Papi also might not see much time.  (Wake has practically nothing but righties in the pen, so even if Papi doesn't start, he'll get some PH chances.)  This means basically that the outfield will again be Fisher-Shifflett-Harrington (and those corner guys have been swinging the bat very, very well lately) with a freshman DHing.  Last week we saw a lot of Brandon Cogswell, but he's a lefty; Nick Howard might be the guy this week.

-- UVA in the field

The preseason book on Wake Forest was that their hitting amounted to a big pile of baked ass.  Forget the book.  Wake's hitters have been very solid, 1 through 8 - the exception being James Harris, batting .188.

The top guys are the same as the ones who did all the hitting last year: Carlos Lopez and Mac Williamson.  Wake's hitting has been a rising tide lifting all their boats, and these two are no exception.  Lopez is batting .336 and slugging .645; he and Williamson already have eight and nine home runs, respectively.

Last year, 2B Conor Keniry batted .196; this year, he's Wake's leading hitter at .344.  Mark Rhine, who's taken over at third for Lopez (who's now at first) was a .170 hitter; he's at .310 now.  In all, it's a solid, well-rounded lineup that's a far cry from the anemic piddlers that trotted to the plate last year, and the funny thing is, it's mostly the same guys.

UVA must also watch out for Wake on the basepaths; they've been successful on 44 of 56.  With UVA's catchers allowing more than 70% of basestealers to succeed, that's not a good sign.  Three players in particular are a concern: Williamson, Keniry, and Pat Blair.  Blair, the Deacs' shortstop, leads the team with 21 walks.  Hoos pitchers have gotten occasionally careless, at times forgetting about baserunners, and that can't happen this weekend.

-- Outlook

Sunday provides an interesting matchup, with perhaps our best pitcher against definitely Wake's worst.  So that's "interesting" in the sense of "awesome."  The actual interesting games will bookend the series, especially Monday.  As in, it'll be interesting to see if Lewicki and the bullpen can match up against Wake's ace.

This makes Saturday's game absolutely vital.  The Hoos must knock Cooney off the hill.  UVA should be able to get the Sunday win, which means winning or losing on Saturday is the difference between trying for the sweep, or hoping for the series win against Wake's best pitcher.  This is a much-improved Wake team from years past, but even so, it's not a series the Hoos can afford to lose and maintain the goal of earning a regional 2 seed.

series preview: NC State

Date/Time: Fri-Sun, 3/30 - 4/1/12; 6:30, 6:30, 1:00

TV: ESPN3

Record against the Pack: 68-120-1

Last matchup: UVA won 2-1 (12-1, 2-6, 3-1); 4/23-4/24/11; Charlottesville

Last game: UVA 19, Towson 5 (3/28); NCSt. 4, ECU 3 (3/28)

Last weekend: UVA 3-0 over Clemson; UNC 2-1 over NCSt.

National rankings:

Baseball America: UVA unranked; NC State #20
Collegiate Baseball: UVA unranked; NC State #9
NCBWA: UVA #26, NC State #27
Perfect Game: UVA #47; NC State #19
Coaches: UVA unranked; NC State #22
Composite: UVA unranked; NC State #18

Opposing blogs: none really where you'll find any baseball info

NC State lineup:

C: Brett Austin (.318-0-16)
1B: Andrew Ciencin (.238-4-18)
2B: Matt Bergquist (.222-0-10)
3B: Trea Turner (.292-1-14)
SS: Chris Diaz (.372-1-26)
LF: Tarran Senay (.310-0-10)
CF: Jake Fincher (.236-0-9)
RF: Ryan Mathews (.329-4-16)
DH: Danny Canela (.282-1-12)

Pitching probables:

Friday: LHP Scott Silverstein (2-2, 2.10, 31 Ks) vs. RHP Ethan Ogburn (2-1, 1.73, 26 Ks)
Saturday: RHP Branden Kline (4-2, 3.10, 35 Ks) vs. LHP Carlos Rodon (4-0, 1.30, 47 Ks)
Sunday: RHP Artie Lewicki (1-1, 4.50, 21 Ks) vs. RHP Logan Jernigan (3-1, 4.03, 28 Ks)

We're pretty sure that teams like FSU, UNC, and Miami will finish ahead of the Hoos in the ACC standings.  And we're pretty sure that teams like Wake Forest and Clemson, and maybe even GT, will finish behind.  NC State is another story.  There are better teams in the conference, but there aren't any bigger series than this one; the Wolfpack, fueled by a stellar recruiting class, are no longer a pest hovering in the bottom ranges of the ACC tournament.  They were once capable of delivering the occasional surprise and little more; now they're a legit threat to win the whole thing.  There is nothing better that UVA can do for its ACC tournament positioning than to go down to Raleigh and steal a series.

-- UVA at the plate

In the season preview I suggested (OK, more than suggested - outright averred) that NC State didn't have the pitching to be a threat in the ACC.  Whoops.  The Pack have an excellent Friday-Saturday combo in Ethan Ogburn - whose hurling is leaps and bounds ahead of previous years - and superfrosh Carlos Rodon.  Rodon was a 16th-round pick last summer and would've gone higher but for signability issues, as he was well set on college.  He was the prize of NC State's freshman class, and could very well be the staff ace by the end of the year; Rodon is allowing a .216 BA and striking out more than 10 per nine innings.

Ogburn's been no slouch either this year; his 1.73 ERA is almost four runs better than it was last year.  There's a question about Sunday, where Logan Jernigan will get the ball, but doesn't have a strong grip on the job.  Jernigan was knocked around last week by the Tar Heels and pulled in the 3rd inning.  That said, Jernigan's allowed all of seven hits this year, in 22 1/3 innings, for an opponents' BA of .092.  It's his walks - 18 of them - that have gotten him in trouble.

State's bullpen is pretty much outstanding too; it's very deep, and altogether, this staff leads the conference in a few pitching categories, notably opponents' BA, which is .213 overall.  Are you gathering a theme here?  That it's kind of tough to get a hit off these guys?  They give up fewer than seven per game.

So it's the top-hitting team in the conference (UVA is hitting .324) vs. the stingiest pitching staff.  In particular, Derek Fisher and Keith Werman have been on a tear lately.  UVA will also have Reed Gragnani back after he missed last weekend with a minor leg injury, but Mitchell Shifflett is hitting well enough that Gragnani may have to fight Colin Harrington for a left field gig.  (Not to mention, having Shifflett's wheels in the 8th spot ahead of Werman in the 9 hole makes for some interesting possibilities to make a defense sweat.)  Gragnani, as a switch-hitter, might also end up in a super-sub role going forward.  Guess we'll see.

At any rate, this is a weekend where we'll have to make every opportunity count.  If UVA can string a few hits together in one inning, things might look good; NC State, however, is equally likely to scatter them and leave us with not much to work with.  Could be interesting.

-- UVA in the field

Whit Mayberry didn't pitch at all against Towson this week, so I'm guessing he won't be available, even out of the pen, this weekend.  Artie Lewicki is listed as the Sunday starter, of course.  I don't expect Mayberry to be available on any weekend until he gets a little test drive in on a Tuesday or Wednesday.

So that thins out the pen a little, again.  It'll be the same order as last weekend.  They'll go against a respectable, if not quite fearsome, Wolfpack lineup.  NC State starts three freshmen, beginning with leadoff hitter Trea Turner, a speed demon who's a perfect 25-for-25 on stolen base attempts.  In other words, if he gets to first base, chances are about 2 in 3 that he'll get to second on his own.  (It wouldn't surprise me if the only reason he doesn't go for second is because it's occupied.  It's basically safe to assume that he will steal.)

So you've really got to keep Turner off the basepaths.  The guaranteed steal puts a lot of pressure on the defense.  NC State used to be something of a swing-for-the-fences kind of team, but they don't hit a lot of homers these days, and neither do they walk or strike out much.  They'll make your fielders work, though they're not all that big on sacrifice bunting - at least not at Brian O'Connor levels.

There isn't a one-man-show in the lineup that hits for power and average, but they do have hitters.  Chris Diaz is batting .372, generally from fifth in the order; Diaz only has one homer but does have good doubles power.  If they could get Andrew Ciencin to hit better than .238, they might have a monster on their hands, but Ciencin - who hits from the three-hole thanks to his home-run power - has never been a guy to hit for average.  Ryan Mathews is a solid all-around hitter, but almost never walks.  Freshman catcher Brett Austin is the lineup's only switch-hitter.  The bottom of the order will generally not be frightening, as Jake Fincher and Matt Bergquist are in for their defense.  (Fincher, though, is the second-best base-stealing threat, on the rare occasion that he does get on base.)

Let's get back to base-stealing for a second.  Turner is 25-for-25, but the rest of the team, minus his efforts, is also excellent.  NC State minus Turner is 22-for-28, still a better percentage than UVA's 42-for-59 as a team.  This will be a real test for Nate Irving, especially on Friday because Scott Silverstein has the worst lefty pickoff move ever.

Ultimately this is a good, not great, team at the plate.  NC State doesn't have championship-level hitting, but they're solid.  Keep Trea Turner the hell off the basepaths and you've taken the most important step.  I don't worry too much about the bottom of the lineup, and the fact that they insist on batting a .238 hitter in the three spot is a bonus for opposing pitchers (and a waste of Turner's talents.)  But by and large there aren't many slouches either, so the UVA pitching staff needs to pitch well, and it'd be impressive to limit the Pack the way they did Clemson last weekend.

-- Outlook

This is a huge series.  So I wish I were more confident for it.  If we can pull off a series win here it would be huge for the rest of the season, because the Pack are probably going to play right at our level or better all spring.  Being on the road sucks, though, and State's pitching staff worries me.  A sweep by either team would be a big surprise, but it would be the only surprise.  A 2-1 series either way is almost guaranteed here, the teams are so closely matched.  If you held a gun to my head, I'd pick NC State to take two, but I wouldn't have any confidence in the pick, either.  I expect all three games to hinge on just a couple plays here and there and be almighty close.

series preview: Clemson

Date/Time: Fri-Sun, March 23-25, 6:00, 1:00, 1:00

TV: None

History against the Tigers: 45-101

Last matchup: UVA series sweep (5-0, 8-7, 7-6); 3/11-3/13/11; Clemson

Last game: UVA 12, VMI 3 (3/21); Clemson 4, Elon 2 (3/21)

Last weekend: FSU 3-0 over UVA; Clemson 3-0 over BC

National rankings:

Baseball America: UVA unranked; Clemson unranked
Collegiate Baseball: UVA unranked; Clemson unranked
NCBWA: UVA #30; Clemson #23
Perfect Game: UVA unranked; Clemson #37
Coaches: UVA unranked; Clemson unranked
Composite: UVA unranked; Clemson unranked

Opposing blogs: Shakin' the Southland

Clemson lineup:

C: Spencer Kieboom (.232-1-9)
1B: Jon McGibbon (.208-1-8)
2B: Steve Wilkerson (.394-0-11)
3B: Richie Shaffer (.358-4-16)
SS: Jason Stolz (.299-1-6)
LF: Dominic Attanasio (.179-0-6)
CF: Thomas Brittle (.259-0-5)
RF: Brad Felder (.208-3-9)
DH: Phil Pohl (.324-3-21)

Pitching probables:

Friday: Scott Silverstein (1-2, 2.22, 28 Ks) vs. Kevin Brady (1-1, 2.89, 31 Ks)
Saturday: Branden Kline (3-2, 3.69, 29 Ks) vs. Dominic Leone (3-1, 5.09, 16 Ks)
Sunday: Artie Lewicki (0-1, 4.95, 17 Ks) vs. Kevin Pohle (3-0, 1.09, 19 Ks)

Before we begin, lemme just get this off my chest: this series always screws with my head because "Tigers baseball" is something I've been a fan of since I was four.  Just not the Clemson version.  Anyway.

I don't like to use the word "reeling," specifically because sportswriters do like it, and it's thus heavily overused.  It'd probably be fair to use it, though, if the Hoos fail to take two of three this weekend.  After blowing two leads in Tallahassee (three, really, but Saturday was so ugly you can't really count it) and going from a chance to take two of three from FSU to getting swept, it'd put a major crimp in this season's plans if we can't get a series win here.  Remember that only the top 8 make the ACC tournament.

-- UVA at the plate

Believe it or not, the Hoos actually lead the conference in batting average.  Hitting was not really the problem last weekend, although despite the ACC-leading numbers, the bats aren't quite what we're used to.  Production has been solid, but not spectacular.

Clemson has an extreme dearth of left-handed pitching; there are just two southpaws on the roster, one of whom hasn't pitched at all and the other having thrown just 1.1 innings.  The full diet of right-handed throwers means we may not see much of Mitchell Shifflett; the outfield is where the lineup has the most flexibility, and you should expect mostly to see the switch-hitting Reed Gragnani and lefty Mike Papi.  (Shifflett is batting .400, so will he sit the whole weekend?  Uh, no.  But still.)

Friday's starter Kevin Brady is a real flamethrower; his fastball sits in the mid 90s, easy, and reaches 96.  A tough assignment for college hitters.  On Saturday, the Hoos will face Dominic Leone, whose ERA for the season sat at 6.61 before he was able to work that down a bit against Boston College's anemic lineup.  (Why why why can't we play BC this year?  On second thought - we lost to them once, so forget it.  Ugh.)  Leone's K/BB ratio is a fingernail's width above 1, not a good sign for his future.  Sunday, there's Kevin Pohle, whose 1.09 ERA looks gaudy, but is bound to rise; he's allowing a .263 opponent's BA and by himself has given up one-fourth of the extra-base hits allowed by Clemson pitching.

Overall, the UVA bats should be able to find success, particularly on Saturday and Sunday.  Fireballers like Brady can be unpredictable, but Brady is probably the best pitcher on either squad.  If UVA can get past him and get a Friday win, we can start feeling very good about the weekend at large.

-- UVA in the field

Surprisingly, Whit Mayberry will not get a start this weekend; I can only guess that's the result of the arm trouble that shut him down early last Monday.  Ugh ugh ugh.  After a sparkling outing last Sunday, Branden Kline gets the same spot in the rotation this week, and Artie Lewicki will take Mayberry's place in the rotation.

Clemson's lineup is alternately frightening and laughable.  You've got to be extra careful pitching to Richie Shaffer, who has four homers already and is hitting .358, and has 21 walks too.  In other words he's like Clemson's version of St. James Ramsey, only without the ability to cure cancer.  (Probably.)  Leadoff hitter Steve Wilkerson is hitting .394, and if he walked a little more he'd approach a .500 OBP.  Phil Pohl is also a worthy hitter.

However, it drops off pretty quick, and pretty steeply.  Clemson hasn't been able to settle on a left fielder, because neither Dominic Attanasio nor Tyler Slaton can get themselves to the Mendoza Line.  At first base, which ought to be a position of production, Jon McGibbon is hitting .208.  So is RF Brad Felder, but at least he's like a miniature Rob Deer with a little pop to go with his terrible batting average.

At least there's lefty-righty balance; the whole outfield bats left-handed, as does McGibbon, and Wilkerson is a switch-hitter.  Still, the key is getting past the top four hitters.  There might not be a more disparate lineup in the conference.  The top of it is why anyone thinks Clemson is any good.  Five through nine is why they might not make the NCAA tourney.

-- Outlook

Must get the series win here.  Taking only one game would drop us to 3-6 and give us a tremendous uphill climb, and the tourney committee will not look kindly upon the Wright State/Seton Hall debacle.  We have to make up for our OOC screwups with a strong showing in the conference, and we're not gonna have a strong showing in-conference if we can't beat flawed teams like Clemson.  The Tigers, too, are fighting for their tournament lives, and probably saying the same thing.  It's only March and we already face must-win scenarios?  Sadly, yes.

weekend review

I was thinking of just posting a big picture of a fart, and that would've summed up my feelings about the weekend very nicely thank you, but maybe that would've been a cop out.  If we're going to puff out our chests like we usually get to do on spring weekends, we gotta face the music when things go badly.

I don't need to break down the basketball, though.  It's obvious to anyone what happened there: the basketball gods decided it wasn't going to happen, and that was that, and that decision was probably made back in February.  There's no other way to explain the freak series of injuries that hit this team; I don't know who suffered more broken bones, UVA or the rest of the country, but either way it's close.  The fates were not aligned for UVA this month, in everything from the actual on-floor competition to the race for accolades.  It is not our month when Bernard James kicks Joe Harris ON HIS BROKEN HAND and James is the one who garners media sympathy.

(This is the section you should only read if you like throwing up in your mouth and having your screw-you-o-meter pegged, but Carolina fans are amusingly broken up over Kendall Marshall's injury.  As if North Carolina is the team getting all the rotten luck this year.  I hope it's a year's worth of rotten luck that's just beginning.  Kendall Marshall doesn't specifically deserve to get hurt, but Carolina fans deserve to watch it happen, and if Creighton was going after John Henson, so much the better; Henson is a douchecanoe.  I hope some Ohio Bobcat comes out next weekend with a sledgehammer painted with the words "John Henson's Wrist."  Then maybe he'll learn the difference between a foul and a "foul."  If Creighton was hammering the Tar Heel players all game, it's probably because they assumed they'd be called for a foul whether they did or not, like certain other Carolina opponents, so they might as well get their money's worth.  What, me still bitter over that game at the JPJ?  Noooooo.)

I'd like to offer some kind of appraisal as to what the team will look like next year and how it will fare, but I just have no idea.  Here's what we lose:

- Mike Scott
- Sammy Zeglinski
- Mike Scott
- the ghost of Assane Sene
- Mike Scott

And here's the arriving cavalry:

- Teven Jones
- Evan Nolte
- Justin Anderson
- Mike Tobey
- Malcolm Brogdon's foot
- Joe Harris's left hand

A nominal starting lineup would be Evans, Brogdon, Harris, Mitchell, and Tobey.  Maybe.  It'll be a weirdly put-together team.  A lot of tweener types, and quite a few who fit the mold of a 3 and not enough that fit the mold of a 2 or a 4.  No bigs whatsoever besides Tobey, so it's sink or swim with him - hope his defense is up to Tony Bennett's standards or we'll never put anyone out there taller than 6'8".  Defending opposing bigs will be a question of hoping Akil Mitchell and Darion Atkins are up to the task, or else relying on a freshman who needs to become best friends with the weight room.

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Baseball isn't having a great weekend either, and it ain't over yet.  Two losses to Florida State mean that tonight is the last chance to salvage anything from the series.  It was the world's first chance to get a glimpse of UVA baseball without buying a ticket to Davenport Field, and what they saw didn't impress.

Saturday's and Sunday's games were full of the kind of mistakes that set coaches' blood on fire.  Mainly Saturday.  The games were lost because of 1) the mistakes and 2) FSU pouncing ruthlessly on the opportunities because they're a top-ten team and that's what top-ten teams do.  Sunday's story was a fantastic outing by Branden Kline - who returned to the starting rotation after a weekend off it - wasted by one bad inning of walks and HBPs.  And pitching coach Karl Kuhn was probably already blowing a stack after the four HBPs (and seven walks) issued on Saturday.  The next poor pitcher that plunks a Seminole batter probably rides the plane back to Charlottesville tied to a wing.

Pile that on top of the bad fielding effort and poor approach at the plate (FSU reliever Hunter Scantling threw about forty sliders and yet our batters continually looked surprised to see the slider....though it is a little strange to see a huge, hulking pitcher big enough to play defensive end for the Raiders pitching like Jamie Moyer.)  Nate Irving probably also came in for a little slice of the coaches' wrath for two lazy efforts resulting in passed balls.  Freshman catcher : baseball :: freshman point guard : basketball.  He'll learn.

Perhaps most troubling: a commenter's suggestion that Chris Taylor might need to be moved off of shortstop.  Taylor is a veteran player and the Hero of Irvine, but.... man, eight errors is kind of hard to argue with.  He's also 2-for-19 in ACC play.  (.253 on the season, but he's been padding his stats against JMU and Marist.)  Might it be a better lineup to have Stephen Bruno at short and Reed Gragnani at third, with Colin Harrington and Mitchell Shifflett in the outfield?  Maybe, but if that's even on Brian O'Connor's mind, it won't happen for a couple more weeks.  A possible shorter-term solution: move Taylor to second and Keith Werman to short.

Still, O'Connor is not a knee-jerk type.  Patience is a hallmark of his, if you've earned it.  (Which Taylor has.)  He's not stubborn either, but he'll probably always be much slower to make a move than fans will be to suggest it.  Will Roberts tossed a perfect game last year and it still took two more weekends before he was moved to Sundays.

Tonight, Whit Mayberry takes the mound, and we'll see if the Hoos can put together nine innings and salvage a game in Tallahassee.  Heck, I'd settle for innings that don't take five minutes to get through our half and twenty to get through theirs.

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Thank God for lacrosse, and we almost weren't even able to say that, as the team fell behind 6-1 to Ohio State after the first quarter.  Fortunately, the next three quarters were 10-3, Good Guys.  Ohio State is in the rearview mirror, hopefully permanently; the Buckeyes play the kind of stalloriffic brand of lacrosse that makes people think a shot clock is a good idea.  It's fairly hideous.  According to people who were there (the only way to see the game otherwise was to fork money over to Ohio State, which I wasn't going to do) OSU went into stall mode in the second quarter, hoping to milk their five-lead for three-fourths of the game.  They did this to Denver, too, causing notorious stallmaster Bill Tierney to whine about stalling.

There's no need to play teams like that, honestly.  Buckeye fans are getting a little tired of a coach that hasn't been able to get OSU over the hump, so maybe that particular brand of lacrosse isn't long for Columbus, Ohio, but if UVA is going to make trips out to the Midwest, how about making Ann Arbor the next destination?  Or, replace the OSU home-and-home we just finished up with one with, say, Georgetown - a much more local destination and, to my mind, a more interesting game.

Next week is a game that I think will determine the #1 seed in the tournament: Johns Hopkins.  My favorite rivalry game in any sport not involving an ACC team.  (I still think that once Syracuse becomes the ACC's fifth team, the conference should make an exception to its all-or-nothing policy and see if perhaps Hopkins is interested in making it six, for lax only.  They probably wouldn't be, but it'd be worth a try.)

weekend review

Before we begin our basketball discussion, the prosecution will stipulate to the following items:

-- Stipulated: That had we hit just one of the large number of missed three-pointers, we probably wouldn't even be having this discussion.  Had we hit two, we definitely wouldn't be.

-- Stipulated: That North Carolina is a much larger team, and therefore much less likely to foul; in addition, the numbers prove this, as they are the best team in the country at keeping the opponent off the free-throw line.

-- Stipulated: That John Henson is a floppy douchebag, about which we will certainly have words later on, and as such, is likely to fool a referee into calling fouls which are then unretractable.

-- Stipulated: That complaining about the refereeing is whiny as hell, most of the time.

That said:

Regardless of the above, you cannot tell me that, for example, Akil Mitchell's "moving screen" was caused by UNC's size advantage, or that said size advantage means UNC committed zero such infractions themselves.  You can't tell me that there's such a thing as a foul for boxing out.  There isn't.  There also is no such thing as a technical foul for a blatant flop, but there should be.

Ironically, that flop by Henson - yes, it was a flop even though he didn't actually fall to the ground - might have enlightened the referees.  My working theory is that, in going to the monitor to check if a flagrant foul was called, saw instead why the crowd was hurling boos at them, and backed off for the rest of the game.  The fouls being called were so astoundingly weak that I don't know how you stop doing them.  Don't box out?  Don't set screens?  So I rule out the idea that UVA was playing any less aggressively, especially since UNC didn't suddenly go on a scoring run.

No, I think it's the exact opposite of a coincidence that, after that trip to the monitor, only two fouls were called on UVA for the next 12 minutes.  One of those was with three seconds left in a last-ditch attempt to get the ball back.  Think of that: 15 fouls called in 28 minutes, and 2 (really 1) in the next 12.  The refereeing was so bad that even the refs knew it.  Too late, of course; foul trouble is irreversible.

It's a shame and a half, because the defensive effort was maybe the best of the season.  I mean, what the Hoos did in sticking it to a team that's much bigger and ostensibly a zillion times more talented is beyond impressive.  It was the kind of effort that deserved the recognition that a win would've brought.  The team battled.  Hard.  They were on the verge of being blown out of their own gym and it didn't faze them; they just buckled down and got 'er done.  With the exception of four-star Malcolm Brogdon, every player fielded by UVA was a measly three-star.  With the exception of four-star Kendall Marshall and Tyler Zeller (who's friggin 7'2"), every player fielded by UNC (that played more than three minutes) was a super-recruit five-star.  That team should blow ours out of the building, every time, and they shouldn't have to flop like Dookies to get it done.

Which brings us to John Henson.  This is the same douchecannon who felt it necessary to throw down a dunk with, like, twelve seconds left in the last game with a 16-point lead.**  He was on the receiving end of at least two of Scott's fouls, both of which he embellished like an Italian soccer player, and when the refs had the temerity to call a foul on him, he earned himself a technical foul.  They didn't call one, but he earned it.  With Greivis Vasquez playing in the League, Henson is officially the heir apparent to the ACC DOY (Douche of the Year) title.

Obviously, though, the refereeing needs to be fixed.  At some point, this independent-contractor model has got to go, in favor of permanent referees.  I don't even care if they hire the same guys. (Except Karl Hess, the Napoleon of refs.)  At least then you'd have better accountability.  The conference bears some blame, too, for promoting, among their refs, an atmosphere of "every little thing is a foul."  The other thing that would be nice: the ability to award a technical foul for exact situations like the one that earned Scott his fourth foul.  I looked in the rulebook; there's no provision for a T for flopping.  There ought to be, and it should say something to the effect that if the referees check the monitor for a flagrant and it turns out that it wasn't even a foul, they have the discretion to award a tech.  Shouldn't that be considered as unsportsmanlike as foul language?

**Typically the response to this is "well you should've played better and then you wouldn't be in that situation," which misses the point. The point is that dick behavior will surface regardless of situation.

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The spring sports did their thing, fortunately.  They were so brutally efficient in their work that I only have bullet points:

-- The first bullet isn't a spring sport at all; it's to let you know that the men's swim team joined the women in winning the ACC title.  It was much closer for them - VT made a meet of it - but the good guys prevailed in the end, and by fewer than 100 points.

-- The lacrosse game against Stony Brook was a 12-5 win, which was (I think) largely a function of the fact that Stony Brook lost everyone who was any good.  They've still got that tendency to be nigh-impossible to shake just when you think you're breaking it open, but with less than half the offensive firepower and no Adam Rand on faceoffs.  So it's kind of relative; used to be you couldn't seem to open it up past three goals, and now it's more like the six-goal barrier you have a hard time with.

-- Congrats are in order for Steele Stanwick, who became only the 7th player in ACC history to break 100 goals and 100 assists in a career.  And he topped both in the same game.

-- And even then, a contribution from him in the goals column wasn't necessary for the Hoos to stake themselves to a fairly sizable lead.  I'm glad I'm not a fan of someone else, coming to the realization that UVA can smoke you even without Stanwick on the scoresheet.  Owen Van Arsdale made some nice early contributions to that effect.  He made some freshman mistakes too, that you could see fairly easily, but I bet you that guy is a Tewaaraton finalist at some point in his career.

-- Baseball outscored Monmouth 38-6 over the three-game series.

-- Seriously.  38-6.

-- Freshman catcher Nate Irving has been providing a nice bat, as has Reed Gragnani.  Most of the rest of the freshmen have been playing only sporadically, but when they do, they're hitting such that the future looks very bright indeed.  Even Mitchell Shifflett is 3-for-4 on the season.  But the guy who's been raking in a way that oughta be outlawed?  Jared King.  He's 14-for-27 (.519) with five extra-base hits (including a home run) and 11 RBIs.

-- This weekend will be a four-game series instead of the traditional three, as we host a "tournament" of our own with two games each against Wright State and Seton Hall.  That means a need for a fifth starter.  Either Joel Effertz will go tomorrow to keep him on the weekdays and the fifth starter will take a turn on Sunday, or - more likely - Effertz will be held for the weekend and this fifth guy will go both tomorrow and next Tuesday.

-- Football schedule!  Finally.  Remember when it would come out the first week of February and we'd all be like, "waaaaahh this is late!"  We can blame a couple of the ACC's member schools for the holdup, in doing some last-minute scheduling calisthenics.  Florida State was one of them; it wasn't entirely their fault, as you can place the blame on a certain ex-Big East school that sued Rich Rodriguez because they think contracts are sacred holy grails that must always be followed to the letter, and then sued the Big East because the Big East insisted on holding them to a contract.  In moving to the Big 12, they had to add a conference game and therefore had to buy out their FSU game, sending FSU scrambling.  In case you're wondering, no, Syracuse and Pitt are not on this schedule.  It would be funny if they were, just to watch the Big East try and put a football schedule together with only five teams.  They'll be in the ACC in 2013, though.  Bet on it.

At any rate, you have to like what you see.  No super-long homestands or road stretches, and the bye week in a good, opportune place.  (I hate early-season bye weeks.  Waste of good rest time.)  And a Thursday night home game on the second-to-last week of the year against UNC, which means a little extra rest before the VT game.  A relatively tough OOC schedule is balanced by a favorable ACC one.  I think we're set up for success here.

the quest that stood on the edge of a knife

I guess I've waited procrastinated long enough; it's best to wait a little while after an awful loss to compose oneself before one puts words out in public that one might regret, or at least that's what I tell myself as an excuse not to write anything all weekend.  (That, and it's now officially the offseason, which means weekends pretty much entirely off, anyway.)

But if the players themselves can go meet the fans less than 24 hours after maybe the most crushing loss in program history, I can probably nut up and write a column.  I guess it's our turn to be on the wrong end of very well-intentioned words that are ultimately of small comfort.  In a year or so, when baseball is back in the spotlight (largely with a very new lineup) we'll still have, on the permanent record for 2011, the most wins in program history**, the highest CWS finish in program history, and another CWS banner on the outfield wall, not to mention the ACC championship.  That'll erase the sting of how we exited.  (Mostly.  Except when something like this happens again, because this managed to remind one of Arkansas and the 2009 CWS with stunning clarity.)

From a much larger perspective, which is a much better way to view Friday night's game, I remind you again of the record-setting season, as well as this: that record-setting season came on the heels of having to replace the majority of the batting lineup and a big chunk of the useful pitching staff.  It's the nature of baseball and draft-eligible juniors; turnover is ever-turning.  Next year we'll see even more of it.  A lot of it.  It would have me extremely apprehensive about the future, but for the successes of this year.

**More years of Brian O'Connor's tenure at UVA have been spent breaking the seasonal wins record than have been spent not breaking it.  At 56 wins it's wicked doubtful that trend can continue but there's still a little bit of room.

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Bullet points:

- Filed under "things that sucked about Friday's game," and possibly right on top, was the lost chance to see Danny Hultzen at his magnificent best.  The damnable cruel fates and their whimsical illnesses that strike when you least need them. Here's a guy who's a top-five athlete in Virginia history, proving it: he struck out eight of the ten batters he faced.  A 24-strikeout pace!  The potential was there for the greatest pitching performance in CWS history.  South Carolina fans will say and have said many things about the Friday game, but on the top of the list ought to be "please heathen gods accept this sacrifice of ten virgins in exchange for your benevolence in striking down the most feared warrior of the enemy."  There's no way South Carolina wins that game if Danny Hultzen's innards aren't infested with viruses sent by Beelzebub himself.

- Another awful thing about being on the wrong end of a game that swung on the edge of a razor: the natural instinct to second-guess.  I shouldn't, but I can't help myself.  Personal top two: given the lack of success at the plate, I'd have given some real thought to a suicide squeeze, and is Reed Gragnani's glove in center really so bad that you'd rather have Shane Halley's bat?  I was taken aback to see Gragnani replaced after pinch-hitting.  It came back to bite us in the worst way when Halley bounced weakly into a bases-loaded double play.

- Besides Hultzen, the second-most deprived player of the day was John Barr, whose heroics are now lost to the annals of time.  Barr went 3-for-6 and hit the ball on the screws in his final at-bat.  His only failure was a violation of Willie Keeler's maxim ("hit 'em where they ain't"); had his line drive been directed a couple of feet in any other direction he'd have been the hero of the hour with a 4-for-6, 2-RBI performance in a likely win.  And no, I don't fault Colin Harrington for getting doubled off, Barr's liner was hit too hard and he had little to no chance to get back to the bag.

- More silver lining from Friday: Tyler Wilson earning the Senior CLASS Award.  I tend to balk at awards where the first name in it is the name of a moneymaking company, but this is one where you make an exception.  In this case it means you have the privilege of rooting for some very outstanding people, so congratulations are in order from all corners.

- A three-part series is coming up in the near future wherein I will offer up a look at next year's lineup possibilities and quickly profile the incoming freshmen.  That starts Wednesday, so stay tuned.

series preview: Maryland

Date/Time: March 25-27; 6:00/1:00/1:00

TV: UVA webcast only

History against the Terps: 101-76

Last matchup: UVA sweep (5-1, 27-4, 11-2); 4/16/10 - 4/18/10; College Park

Last game: UVA 5, Towson 0 (3/23); Md. 8, GWU 2 (3/22)

Last weekend: UVA 2-1 over FSU; BC 2-1 over Md.

National rankings:

Baseball America: UVA #3; Md. unranked
Collegiate Baseball: UVA #3; Md. unranked
NCBWA: UVA #3; Md. unranked
Perfect Game: UVA #3; Md. unranked
Coaches: UVA #3; Md. unranked

Opposing blogs: no baseball-inclined ones

So, Maryland has been godawful at baseball. This year, probably less so. Second-year coach Erik Bakich is working on fixing the laughingstockitude that was Maryland baseball and has them taking steps from being the laugher of the East Coast to merely bad. This is bad for my ability to write jokes about Maryland but good for the ACC in general when the bad teams aren't pitching-free zones. More improvement may or may not be on tap for the future, but for now Maryland is still an extreme longshot to be eligible for any kind of postseason play. Thus, anything less than a sweep would be disappointing.

HOW WE CAN WIN**

- Roll out the lefties. Southpaws, they haz none. The only left-handed pitcher on Maryland that we're ever likely to see on the hill is Sunday starter Eric Potter. The left-handed batters in our lineup mostly aren't full-time regulars, but they've seen their share of at-bats. Keith Werman is the only really everyday lefty, but David Coleman, Danny the Destroyer, and Reed Gragnani all bat from that side of the plate too. Along with possibly Ryan Levine, they'll see plenty of plate appearances to take advantage of the fact that pretty much everyone the Terps trot out from the bullpen will be right-handed.

- Dominate on Friday. Maryland's pen isn't half bad, but it's shallow. Much shallower than ours, at any rate. It can be taken advantage of. Brian O'Connor is a master of pitching staff usage, but his job there can be cake and a half this week if his job is made that much easier by his hitters burning through Maryland pitchers on the first day of the series. Danny will strike out 13 batters, of course, so if the batters can open up a can on Sander Beck (the likely Friday starter) and then open up a can on his relief, we can turn to someone who might normally be a weekday guy and save the bigger guns for the later games, and let them pitch against a bullpen that's wearing thin quickly.

**By "win" I mean sweep. Can't afford to give up a game against the Marylands of the world, especially since we don't get a series against Wake.

HOW WE CAN LOSE

- Let a pitchers' duel break out. Any one of the games could be. Sander Beck held Georgia Tech(!) to one lousy run, David Carroll held Texas(!!) to one lousy run, and I actually think it's Eric Potter who's pitching the best of the three. His .181 opponents' BA has a lot to do with it. Not that our own pitchers can't hold up in a pitcher's duel, of course. They're still better. But Maryland's best hope for stealing a game in any of their series is in a pitchers' duel. They don't have the lineup horses to win anything 10-8. They've hit double digits once this year: against Liberty, whom they'd lost to the day before.

HOW THE SERIES WILL GO

Seriously, if we lose even one it'll be a big disappointment. GT swept 'em, FSU will probably sweep 'em, Clemson will probably sweep 'em. Win them all, or else have to try and earn the tournament 1 seed the hard way. Fortunately, a sweep is exactly what I see with my magic 8-ball. Maryland scores no more than eight runs all weekend, strikes out at least 10 times against Hurricane Danny, and UVA is 8-1 with an excellent chance to return to at least a tie atop the division standings, what with Miami hosting Georgia Tech this weekend.