You know you want it. Here it is. Tipoff is, as of typing this sentence, 8 days and 21 and a half hours from now. UVa basketball is a legitimately elite team. The media and coaches both ranked the Hoos #6 to start the season; one intrepid member of the media poll decided they should be #1. KenPom starts them off 3rd. Nobody finds this strange anymore.
UVA is staring down a familiar ACC - one in which Duke and UNC are again the primary threats to world domination and VT is hot garbage but this year will be improvement you guys - and one of the toughest out-of-conference schedules of anyone in the nation. December kicks off with a trip to Columbus, Ohio, and later a three-game stretch against West Virginia, Villanova, and Cal. Worthy opponents will also be found in Charleston for the usual preseason tournament, which hopefully culminates in a championship game against Oklahoma State.
The 30-second shot clock this year, down from 35, almost certainly means it'll be much harder for Tony Bennett's famous defense to ring up freak-show scores like 45-26 or 57-28, or hold opponents to eight points in a half. But it could also mean some larger margins of victory; if you can't score in 35 seconds on this defense, a shorter time limit isn't likely to help.
We'll start off here with a three-part series on the players themselves, which is as per usual except usually it's a two-part series. Three this year, which you shouldn't read anything into except the fact that it takes a really long time to type this stuff up. Because his number comes first in the alphabet, we start with....
#0 - Devon Hall - rSo. PG
Life's not easy as the tenth player in Tony's 9.5-man rotation. You have to have the mindset of a relief pitcher. Nobody, absolutely nobody, comes out of high school thinking that way. Devon Hall redshirted, then spent last year bouncing between long stretches on the bench and long stretches on the court. He started the first game while London Perrantes served a suspension, then saw his minutes vaporize when ACC season rolled around, then jumped right back in when Justin Anderson was hurt near the end of the year, then played zero minutes in all postseason games.
Anderson is in the League now, but the backcourt minutes aren't much less logjammed. Hall looks once again like the sixth player in the rotation for three spots' worth of minutes. Much depends on his offseason improvements - more so than anyone else in the backcourt. Hall wasn't a force on offense last year; he struggled from the free-throw line in limited opportunities, didn't force opponents to account for his outside shooting, and missed too many two-pointers as well. The offense never ran through him; instead it occasionally ended up in his area.
Anderson averaged about 28 minutes a game, but it's not hard to envision that being taken up by Marial Shayok (maybe ten extra minutes), Darius Thompson (fifteen?) and Evan Nolte, who is after all a senior. Hall wasn't a standout on defense last year, but he played it well enough to be inserted into the lineup with little hesitation. He's going to have to show something on offense to nose his way onto the court. It's a delicate balance between asserting yourself enough and too much, and Hall needs to find it early if he's going to stick in the rotation. If he can do that, his size will be a real asset and help to make UVA a truly imposing presence with one of the biggest backcourts in the nation. Otherwise, he'll spend another year picking up the scraps and making it difficult to tell what exactly he does well.
#4 - Marial Shayok - So. SG
College basketball teams have to reinvent themselves a little bit every year. They lose some unique talents to transfer, graduation, or the draft; new faces arrive; old faces add new talents. Case in point: Justin Anderson finding a three-point shot. One of my favorite things about new basketball seasons is finding out how the new rotation meshes, how the chemistry equation sorts out, and most especially, unwrapping the new surprises. With Tony Bennett the latter is better than ever, because amazing coaching means major offseason improvements.
All that in mind, here's the holdover player I'm most excited to see this year. Marial Shayok is a big reason why the Devon Hall preview was so pessimistic. Generally, the upperclassmen are what they are. Shayok is, potentially, a lot of things. Last year he came in billed as a very versatile player, and delivered 100% on that promise. Lot of tools in his toolbox; he's a very skilled defender, and can score a bunch of different ways.
One thing I'd like to see most is either better mid-range shooting, or a lot less of it. Shayok can hit the three and he's one of the team's best finishers at the rim. His 62.5% percentage at the rim (according to Hoop-Math) is big-man-esque. He can achieve a huge boost in efficiency by focusing on the shots with much higher reward potential, or he can level up even more in versatility by improving his mid-range game to, say, 30-35% instead of the ugly 23.5% he shot last year.
Shayok, obviously, isn't Justin Anderson's equal athletically - very few are. But he's got a great feel for the game. He's a Swiss Army knife of a basketball player, not easily pigeonholed into a particular position. His many skills, though, are still raw and undeveloped. Whichever of those skills he improved most over the offseason will not only help himself find well-deserved playing time, but more importantly, it'll determine what chemistry combinations work best in this year's experiment.
#10 - Mike Tobey - Sr. C
Everyone's favorite enigma, a senior at last and hopefully ready to come blasting out of his shell. Sort of - because I'm one who maintains there isn't much of a shell, just a talented center developing at about the usual pace for a center. Tobey has a lot of strong points that show up very loud and clear on a stat sheet - or at least the KenPom kind of sheet.
To start with, he was the third-most efficient player on last year's team, ahead of big names like Brogdon. This had a lot to do with his very low turnover rate and quality free-throw shooting, two traits it's incredibly difficult to find in a big man. He was also the team's best rebounder from the efficiency point of view and in fact one of the better ones in the country.
Tobey's detractors want him to "play with more fire," as his game doesn't come off very intense. You might get a few more blocks that way (and a few more fouls) and he might get to the line a bit more, maybe a little better shooting percentage. You wouldn't get much extra rebounding, though, because he already does that very well, and his defense wouldn't show it, because he can already neutralize most players his size and isn't quick enough to be a major stopping force against power forwards.
You can make a case, though, that Tobey is the best true center in the ACC. Other players have a case, too - think Tonye Jekiri of Miami, Landry Nnoko of Clemson - but the thing is, Tobey's best games come against those specific players. Tobey abuses teams who defend him with other centers - and quickly picks up fouls when he doesn't have other centers to defend against and has to go against power forwards instead.
So if there's anything I want to see out of him in his senior year, it's not "more fire." He is what he is. And he doesn't need fire to beat up on other centers on both ends of the court. Rather, I'd like to see him be able to hang in there longer against players like Zach Auguste, who's not a true center but can bang around inside just enough and out-quick Tobey with the ball. He's got to be able to contribute more against teams who go relatively small inside, because UVA can't simply answer with Darion Atkins anymore.
#11 - Evan Nolte - Sr. SF
Another enigma - which is sort of weird for a pair of seniors. Nolte looked like he was on the outs halfway through last year, with only a few token minutes a game. Then, like Hall, he appeared back in the rotation with a vengeance when Justin got hurt - and unlike Hall, stuck even when Anderson returned.
Before that Louisville game, he was 7-for-35 shooting three pointers. Horrendous, and a glaring problem, because that's what he was in the game to do. In the last one-third of the season he was 14-for-41 - much, much better, and there were two consecutive games there where he was 0-for-8, so outside that little blip, he shot 42%. It lends credence to the idea that you can expect his shot to be much better this year.
Nolte also figured out how to be a very consistent defender, adopting an awkward-looking defensive stance that works like a damn charm. He will never, ever get a steal out of his on-ball defense, but more power to you if you can recall anyone getting past him once he got down in that duck stance. He also formed a bridge between frontcourt and backcourt, playing the four on occasion. While Nolte at the four and Tobey at the five is a combination that will happen exactly never, putting Nolte at power forward is a great way to punish an opponent for going too big - particularly if he's hitting from outside.
I doubt there's much evolution left in Nolte's game. His defense is fine. He's not going to light up the stat sheet, but he's far, far from a liability. He's not going to go with his back to the basket unless someone tries to guard him with a 6'2" shooting guard. The only real variable here is the three-point shooting, which comes and goes for almost everyone. If he's hitting, great. Really great. If he's not, he needs to keep bombing away until he is. It would be hard to be worse than he was at the beginning of last year, so just a little regression to the mean is all he really needs.
Showing posts with label shayok. Show all posts
Showing posts with label shayok. Show all posts
Wednesday, November 4, 2015
Monday, April 20, 2015
hoops in review, part 1
This was promised to you much earlier, but then I realized: if I write this before Justin Anderson makes his decision known, the whole thing will be littered with uncertainty and caveats. Now we know, so we can get the show on the road.
#0 - Devon Hall - rFr. PG
Preview quote: "UVA's backcourt is fairly young this year, so a good-sized contribution from Hall is more important than it might seem."
This didn't turn out that way, because there was such a quantum leap forward from other players. Justin Anderson, of course, and London Perrantes also became more of a scorer. Hall was decidedly the last rotation option in the backcourt, and scored more than three points just three times. He sat out 11 games entirely, and in ACC action, saw just over five minutes a game - that is, outside a particular stretch late in the season.
That would of course be the stretch that Anderson missed. Hall didn't play against Pittsburgh, but averaged 15 minutes in five others. And when London Perrantes was suspended to start the season, Hall got his only start of the year, in game one against JMU.
And that in a nutshell was Hall's role: it was other guys who ran the show, mostly, but when a spot opened up, Hall was counted on for a decent share of the minutes. Redshirting and then the understudy role probably wasn't what he envisioned to start his career. But it's hard to say he deserved scads more time; his defense was OK but not outstanding (that said, the point guard isn't asked to be the star of the pack-line) and his offense wasn't as efficient as you'd like. He showed some flashes at times. The Wake Forest game - the curbstomping, not the close one - was a particularly excellent showing. But overall he played about as well as his minutes imply. Not lousy, or he wouldn't have been the first option to replace a regular in the rotation - but not much to take note of.
Anderson's departure opens up about 28 backcourt minutes. Perrantes and Malcolm Brogdon are just about maxed out, but the competition is still going to be fierce for them. Darius Thompson joins the fray next year, and it's whispered he brings a quickness and slashing dimension to the team that was lacking this year. Marial Shayok is due for a big increase too. Hall will have to work his tail off this offseason if he wants to make a large dent next year. His role should increase, but it probably won't be til 2016-2017, after this large crop of rising seniors graduates, that he really becomes one of the front-and-center players.
#1 - Justin Anderson - Jr. SF
Preview quote: "He's got to take some part of his game - any part of his game, it really doesn't even matter - up a level or two."
I don't know. Do you think he might've accomplished that?
I guess if going from under 30% to over 45% behind the arc counts. Anderson actually cooled off as the season went on, because he started up over 60% - after Tennesee State, which he buried with 5-for-5 three-point shooting, he was over 68%, five games in.
That was enough to capture a lot of attention nationwide, but Anderson also gave a few other parts of his game a lift - he became more dependable from the free throw line, he fouled less and played better defense overall (though with fewer circus blocks, unfortunately) and he took better care of the ball. He singlehandedly answered the question of who would replace Joe Harris's scoring, and became the infectiously enthusiastic face of the whole team. And then, because We Can't Have Nice Things, he broke his damn hand.
That was really what drove home the point about what he meant to this team. UVA only lost one game without him, but they weren't easy wins, and three out of his four games after his return were a mess. He scored zero points in the whole ACC tournament and only defensively-challenged Belmont allowed him to look like his former self. Anderson's play suffered, and along with it basically the whole offense.
A terrific shame. Anderson was an exciting player his first two years, but he was a ridiculously athletic curiosity for the most part. An X-factor, but the game was dominated by others. This year he took over and became the guy Maryland fans are still pissed off about missing out on. This is what's most disappointing about Anderson leaving. The team, actually, will be just fine. Tony Bennett is working on a nice track record of seeing his players take huge strides in the offseason, and no doubt someone will do the same this year. Or a couple someones. In fact, the team might be best off in the long run for this - if Anderson returned, the backcourt would've been incredibly crowded. Now, some younger guys will get extensive playing time and the baton will be more easily passed off in later years. But a full year of a guy like Justin Anderson in a starring role would've been some of the best entertainment in all of college hoops.
#2 - B.J. Stith - Fr. SG
Preview quote: "Stith has a good head on his shoulders and a dad who won't let him screw himself up, so I'll put in a SWAG here and say Stith redshirts."
Well, that was over quick. Stith didn't redshirt, but he might as well have for all the playing time he got - almost exclusively with the walk-ons at the end of blowouts - and amid a smattering of talk that cracking the rotation might not ever be in the cards, Stith decided to rejoin his father and brother at ODU next year. We won't get to see the second chapter of a Stith lighting it up in a Virginia uniform after all.
#4 - Marial Shayok - Fr. SF
Preview quote: "Shayok's calling card when he came in was his versatility."
Honest, I totally forgot that I'd written that as I watched Shayok this season and thought, "man, this guy can score a lot of different ways." Versatile was exactly the word for what he did with the ball. He showed he could get to the rim; he showed he could shoot the three; he showed he could create a few chances for his teammates. He played a reasonably steady 15 minutes a game - right about average for the fourth guy in the backcourt rotation - and had a higher assist rate than everyone but Perrantes and Brogdon, the team's highest steal rate, and the backcourt's best block rate. A better block rate than Anderson, in fact, and Anthony Gill as well.
You can't ask for a lot more out of a bench guy, and you can't ask for preseason impressions to turn out much more accurate than that. Shayok didn't do anything dominatingly well, and he was plagued with occasional freshman inconsistency, but he did a hell of a lot of different things at an ACC level. Out of a fairly large group of freshmen, Shayok was easily the best.
A guy who can score a lot of different ways is a good bet to find chances to do it more often. Shayok doesn't have the kind of wild athleticism you see in early draft entrants, and that means Tony Bennett might have hit the sweet spot in recruiting here. Shayok appears to have a well-developed court sense and has a great chance to be a four-year star for the Hoos. And for that matter, a three-year starter.
#5 - Darion Atkins - Sr. PF
Preview quote: "Atkins probably won't start many games, if at all, and isn't a huge scoring threat. He probably trusts his hook shot a little too much."
Nice preview. Atkins started 27 games, in fact, including all of them but one after New Year's, and in that one he played 31 minutes. Oh, and he was one of the most indispensible players on the team. ACC Defensive POY. That hook shot I thought he trusted too much became a deadly weapon. Simply put, he was one of the ACC's best interior forces anywhere.
Atkins got back all the bounce and athleticism he'd lost when the shin splints struck him two years ago. And he played with a chip on his shoulder, as if making up for lost time and getting revenge on the fates that robbed him of a year and a half of usefulness. It was so much fun to see him get that redemption and his year in the spotlight that nobody minded a bit when he got a technical for hanging on the rim against VT. Sometimes you just let a guy have a moment. This was the player that UVA and Notre Dame fought over in the recruiting wars.
Stories like his are what make college hoops fun. Now there's a small conundrum. Before the season the whole fanbase figured that "only" losing Atkins would mean basically the exact same team would come back next year, only a year older and stronger and wiser. Now he's gotta be replaced. It won't be easy; whereas Atkins was plausibly seen as very similar to Akil Mitchell, there isn't anyone left in that mold, nor much experience among the candidates.
#10 - Mike Tobey - Jr. C
Preview quote: "Keep him on the development curve at the same time and he's got a chance to open a lot of eyes in the ACC this year."
There hasn't been a more polarizing UVA basketball player since Sammy Zeglinski. With Tobey, whether you like his game or not, there's evidence to support your position. Tobey was only a secondary scorer at best, and his minutes actually dropped from last year. He's really not useful against teams without big traditional centers, because he's fairly easily beaten on the block by smaller, quicker forwards. His defense is a little slow and he doesn't appear to be a natural in the pack-line.
On the other hand, he's extremely useful against teams that do have traditional centers, because he's almost always much more skilled than they are, able to guard them with relative ease thanks to the security blanket of the pack-line and his better athleticism, and he has little trouble scoring against slow-footed galoots. This season was easily his best offensively. He was much more efficient than last year; he shot free throws as well as most guards, he was a terrific rebounder especially on offense, he made good outlet passes, and he turned the ball over very little.
I think a lot of criticism directed at Tobey - much of it to do with a perceived lack of effort - is unwarranted. It's not any more valid than the idea that Atkins was disgruntled and unhappy because his face was kinda hangdog all the time. Amateur psychology. That and the expectations heaped on him when he was recruited. If there were no such thing as recruiting analysts, Tobey would catch a lot less flak. That said, he can be maddening at times. He needs to find ways to get himself on the court more. If he does, he's still got it in him to be an all-ACC player.
#0 - Devon Hall - rFr. PG
Preview quote: "UVA's backcourt is fairly young this year, so a good-sized contribution from Hall is more important than it might seem."
This didn't turn out that way, because there was such a quantum leap forward from other players. Justin Anderson, of course, and London Perrantes also became more of a scorer. Hall was decidedly the last rotation option in the backcourt, and scored more than three points just three times. He sat out 11 games entirely, and in ACC action, saw just over five minutes a game - that is, outside a particular stretch late in the season.
That would of course be the stretch that Anderson missed. Hall didn't play against Pittsburgh, but averaged 15 minutes in five others. And when London Perrantes was suspended to start the season, Hall got his only start of the year, in game one against JMU.
And that in a nutshell was Hall's role: it was other guys who ran the show, mostly, but when a spot opened up, Hall was counted on for a decent share of the minutes. Redshirting and then the understudy role probably wasn't what he envisioned to start his career. But it's hard to say he deserved scads more time; his defense was OK but not outstanding (that said, the point guard isn't asked to be the star of the pack-line) and his offense wasn't as efficient as you'd like. He showed some flashes at times. The Wake Forest game - the curbstomping, not the close one - was a particularly excellent showing. But overall he played about as well as his minutes imply. Not lousy, or he wouldn't have been the first option to replace a regular in the rotation - but not much to take note of.
Anderson's departure opens up about 28 backcourt minutes. Perrantes and Malcolm Brogdon are just about maxed out, but the competition is still going to be fierce for them. Darius Thompson joins the fray next year, and it's whispered he brings a quickness and slashing dimension to the team that was lacking this year. Marial Shayok is due for a big increase too. Hall will have to work his tail off this offseason if he wants to make a large dent next year. His role should increase, but it probably won't be til 2016-2017, after this large crop of rising seniors graduates, that he really becomes one of the front-and-center players.
#1 - Justin Anderson - Jr. SF
Preview quote: "He's got to take some part of his game - any part of his game, it really doesn't even matter - up a level or two."
I don't know. Do you think he might've accomplished that?
I guess if going from under 30% to over 45% behind the arc counts. Anderson actually cooled off as the season went on, because he started up over 60% - after Tennesee State, which he buried with 5-for-5 three-point shooting, he was over 68%, five games in.
That was enough to capture a lot of attention nationwide, but Anderson also gave a few other parts of his game a lift - he became more dependable from the free throw line, he fouled less and played better defense overall (though with fewer circus blocks, unfortunately) and he took better care of the ball. He singlehandedly answered the question of who would replace Joe Harris's scoring, and became the infectiously enthusiastic face of the whole team. And then, because We Can't Have Nice Things, he broke his damn hand.
That was really what drove home the point about what he meant to this team. UVA only lost one game without him, but they weren't easy wins, and three out of his four games after his return were a mess. He scored zero points in the whole ACC tournament and only defensively-challenged Belmont allowed him to look like his former self. Anderson's play suffered, and along with it basically the whole offense.
A terrific shame. Anderson was an exciting player his first two years, but he was a ridiculously athletic curiosity for the most part. An X-factor, but the game was dominated by others. This year he took over and became the guy Maryland fans are still pissed off about missing out on. This is what's most disappointing about Anderson leaving. The team, actually, will be just fine. Tony Bennett is working on a nice track record of seeing his players take huge strides in the offseason, and no doubt someone will do the same this year. Or a couple someones. In fact, the team might be best off in the long run for this - if Anderson returned, the backcourt would've been incredibly crowded. Now, some younger guys will get extensive playing time and the baton will be more easily passed off in later years. But a full year of a guy like Justin Anderson in a starring role would've been some of the best entertainment in all of college hoops.
#2 - B.J. Stith - Fr. SG
Preview quote: "Stith has a good head on his shoulders and a dad who won't let him screw himself up, so I'll put in a SWAG here and say Stith redshirts."
Well, that was over quick. Stith didn't redshirt, but he might as well have for all the playing time he got - almost exclusively with the walk-ons at the end of blowouts - and amid a smattering of talk that cracking the rotation might not ever be in the cards, Stith decided to rejoin his father and brother at ODU next year. We won't get to see the second chapter of a Stith lighting it up in a Virginia uniform after all.
#4 - Marial Shayok - Fr. SF
Preview quote: "Shayok's calling card when he came in was his versatility."
Honest, I totally forgot that I'd written that as I watched Shayok this season and thought, "man, this guy can score a lot of different ways." Versatile was exactly the word for what he did with the ball. He showed he could get to the rim; he showed he could shoot the three; he showed he could create a few chances for his teammates. He played a reasonably steady 15 minutes a game - right about average for the fourth guy in the backcourt rotation - and had a higher assist rate than everyone but Perrantes and Brogdon, the team's highest steal rate, and the backcourt's best block rate. A better block rate than Anderson, in fact, and Anthony Gill as well.
You can't ask for a lot more out of a bench guy, and you can't ask for preseason impressions to turn out much more accurate than that. Shayok didn't do anything dominatingly well, and he was plagued with occasional freshman inconsistency, but he did a hell of a lot of different things at an ACC level. Out of a fairly large group of freshmen, Shayok was easily the best.
A guy who can score a lot of different ways is a good bet to find chances to do it more often. Shayok doesn't have the kind of wild athleticism you see in early draft entrants, and that means Tony Bennett might have hit the sweet spot in recruiting here. Shayok appears to have a well-developed court sense and has a great chance to be a four-year star for the Hoos. And for that matter, a three-year starter.
#5 - Darion Atkins - Sr. PF
Preview quote: "Atkins probably won't start many games, if at all, and isn't a huge scoring threat. He probably trusts his hook shot a little too much."
Nice preview. Atkins started 27 games, in fact, including all of them but one after New Year's, and in that one he played 31 minutes. Oh, and he was one of the most indispensible players on the team. ACC Defensive POY. That hook shot I thought he trusted too much became a deadly weapon. Simply put, he was one of the ACC's best interior forces anywhere.
Atkins got back all the bounce and athleticism he'd lost when the shin splints struck him two years ago. And he played with a chip on his shoulder, as if making up for lost time and getting revenge on the fates that robbed him of a year and a half of usefulness. It was so much fun to see him get that redemption and his year in the spotlight that nobody minded a bit when he got a technical for hanging on the rim against VT. Sometimes you just let a guy have a moment. This was the player that UVA and Notre Dame fought over in the recruiting wars.
Stories like his are what make college hoops fun. Now there's a small conundrum. Before the season the whole fanbase figured that "only" losing Atkins would mean basically the exact same team would come back next year, only a year older and stronger and wiser. Now he's gotta be replaced. It won't be easy; whereas Atkins was plausibly seen as very similar to Akil Mitchell, there isn't anyone left in that mold, nor much experience among the candidates.
#10 - Mike Tobey - Jr. C
Preview quote: "Keep him on the development curve at the same time and he's got a chance to open a lot of eyes in the ACC this year."
There hasn't been a more polarizing UVA basketball player since Sammy Zeglinski. With Tobey, whether you like his game or not, there's evidence to support your position. Tobey was only a secondary scorer at best, and his minutes actually dropped from last year. He's really not useful against teams without big traditional centers, because he's fairly easily beaten on the block by smaller, quicker forwards. His defense is a little slow and he doesn't appear to be a natural in the pack-line.
On the other hand, he's extremely useful against teams that do have traditional centers, because he's almost always much more skilled than they are, able to guard them with relative ease thanks to the security blanket of the pack-line and his better athleticism, and he has little trouble scoring against slow-footed galoots. This season was easily his best offensively. He was much more efficient than last year; he shot free throws as well as most guards, he was a terrific rebounder especially on offense, he made good outlet passes, and he turned the ball over very little.
I think a lot of criticism directed at Tobey - much of it to do with a perceived lack of effort - is unwarranted. It's not any more valid than the idea that Atkins was disgruntled and unhappy because his face was kinda hangdog all the time. Amateur psychology. That and the expectations heaped on him when he was recruited. If there were no such thing as recruiting analysts, Tobey would catch a lot less flak. That said, he can be maddening at times. He needs to find ways to get himself on the court more. If he does, he's still got it in him to be an all-ACC player.
Monday, February 9, 2015
blip
At risk of blasting my own horn (oh hell, that's the whole point of this entire endeavor) I did something during the Duke game that's usually almost impossible to pull off: I pegged the game's turning point as it happened. Most of the time you have to do that in retrospect, unless the game is really close and then suddenly it's not. In this case UVA held a pretty safe lead before it happened, and a pretty safe lead after. KenPom's win probability graph had UVA's chances moving from about 98% to 96%. Who'd have thunk?
Well, me, when that tiny little knife in the pit of the stomach made its appearance on a Tyus Jones three-pointer shortly after a Justin Anderson miss on the same. Anderson's shot was thisclose to going down; Jones hit nothing but net, and the result was a six-point swing. No, it was more than six points - it was the entire spectrum of Duke's confidence. Jones gave them their fortitude back, ten seconds after it was two inches from disappearing entirely.
As much as I'd like to move that number one from the loss column to the rankings column, at least we know what it takes to beat UVA these days: six-of-eight shooting on three pointers, and all of the last four. After Anderson missed, that's what Duke did, en route to not missing a shot in the last four minutes of the game. You know what? Great. Duplicate that formula and you've finally figured out the trick to beatingVirginia Kentucky everyone up to and including the '92 Dream Team.
The rest of the week - no disrespect at all to the opponents involved - was surprisingly easy. It's all relative, of course - it wasn't, like, Harvard-easy. UNC and Louisville put up a fight, albeit not for 40 full minutes. It's easier to do, of course, when one game is at home and the other is in one of the ACC less-intimidating atmospheres. (Seriously, is there a team anywhere else, outside of Chapel Hill, where the ratio of powerhouse-ery to crowd atmosphere is so huge?) Theory on this: these three teams are completely on another level athletically, above and beyond what UVA's gotten used to seeing the past month (or more) and it took a little time to get used to. When they did, which was right about halftime of the UNC game, the game slowed down again.
I've been including the upcoming NC State game in the stretch of doom calculations, but if you believe the above theory, it might be more of a blowout than I've been assuming. I mean, BeeJay Anya's a pretty good player, but once you've tried to score on Montrezl Harrell, can it be that much harder? I still think it's a dangerous game.
That said, the chances are excellent that UVA loses just one game the rest of the way at the most, which should worry a league that all sits at least two losses behind. Beating Duke would've been great and all, but there isn't a soul among us who wouldn't have taken two out of those last three, if offered beforehand. And UVA has held double-digit leads in all three games. Despite the loss, this was a test passed with flying colors so far; if they finish the final portion of it, another long and relatively relaxing stretch awaits.
****************************************************
-- It's been a while since I wrote this, so it was of course bound to rear its ugly head in a huge way: We still can't have nice things. Justin Anderson's fractured finger capped a very rough injury stretch (at least, I really hope that capped it) in which UVA lost its top scorer in basketball, top hitter in baseball, and top defenseman in lacrosse. Already thin from the transfer loss of Greg Danseglio, the lacrosse team really could not afford losing Tanner Scales to an Achilles' heel, but it did anyway. Joe McCarthy's back surgery leaves a gaping hole in the lineup. And of course, something had to be up when Evan Nolte started the second half.
Weirdly, even in a game where Anderson got hurt, Marial Shayok only got four minutes. I might automatically assume he and Nolte would pick up most of Anderson's minutes, if not for that stat. It's still logical, but Tony's been tinkering with the back end of the lineup a bit and I wouldn't make any hard-and-fast guesses for NC State, let alone four weeks from now. Good news is there's a reasonable chance Anderson is back for postseason play.
-- You have to love Syracuse, which could at any time have chosen to take a postseason sanction but chose to do it in the middle of a season that wasn't likely to land them in the NCAAs anyway.... and then throw a pity party for Rakeem Christmas's playoff dreams. Does it suck that Christmas's Syracuse career ends without any tournaments of any kind? Yes, but to avoid that, Syracuse might have had to feel a little more pain from the self-sanction. So Christmas gets thrown to the wolves, and just for a bonus, gets to be used by Syracuse as the face of their passive-aggressive campaign against having to bear such a brutal punishment. How cynical.
-- Sometimes the basketball gods are just. Not when they put Anderson's finger in a splint, no, but take Darion Atkins. Atkins dogged a Louisville player into a turnover just seconds after a defensive rebound, giving the Hoos the ball right back.... and then Atkins scored on the ensuing possession. Feed the guy who made the play - I like it.
-- I was reminded again why I like Doris Burke. 75% of sideline reporters ask the stupidest %@#&ing questions, mostly: "describe your emotions." Burke pinpointed a matchup she wanted to ask about - and made a good choice - and in doing so gave Tony Bennett an opportunity to sing the praises of a deserving player, which he proceeded to do.
-- Lacrosse starts the season the same way as last year: a one-goal win over Loyola. Now that the season is underway, that would be a good time to write a season preview, yes? This week. Short version of the game: offense good, defense eh.
-- I put together the next round of ACC simulations, but that's gonna wait til Tuesday also. So now here they are:
UVA is a frightening lock for the 1 seed; it'd take a mathematically unlikely face-fall to drop out of the top spot. What's a bit more surprising is the tight grip Duke has on #2, and UNC on #5. Neither have much of a schedule left, except each other. KenPom likes GT a lot more than the standings show, though, and UNC also has to visit Miami; that, combined with Duke's higher pythag, accounts for a lot of the difference. Fortunately, it makes sense; Duke owns the tiebreaker on everyone in the top 5 except for UNC, who they haven't played yet. By virtue of being the only team to beat UVA while the rest of the contenders have all lost, they're in great shape.
This is a great year to show off the excellence of the tourney format; five great teams looking for four double-bye slots. It might not matter early, because the first opponent will be a putz (either #12 or #13) and then you play the 4 seed anyway, but the extra game might de-freshen the legs a little as the tourney heads toward Sunday.
Me, I'd definitely welcome a Sunday rematch of last year's final. Both teams would be motivated by recent losses to the other, and the chance to beat Duke two years in a row would spark whispery but unmistakeable changing-of-the-guard talk. Not to be premature or anything.
Well, me, when that tiny little knife in the pit of the stomach made its appearance on a Tyus Jones three-pointer shortly after a Justin Anderson miss on the same. Anderson's shot was thisclose to going down; Jones hit nothing but net, and the result was a six-point swing. No, it was more than six points - it was the entire spectrum of Duke's confidence. Jones gave them their fortitude back, ten seconds after it was two inches from disappearing entirely.
As much as I'd like to move that number one from the loss column to the rankings column, at least we know what it takes to beat UVA these days: six-of-eight shooting on three pointers, and all of the last four. After Anderson missed, that's what Duke did, en route to not missing a shot in the last four minutes of the game. You know what? Great. Duplicate that formula and you've finally figured out the trick to beating
The rest of the week - no disrespect at all to the opponents involved - was surprisingly easy. It's all relative, of course - it wasn't, like, Harvard-easy. UNC and Louisville put up a fight, albeit not for 40 full minutes. It's easier to do, of course, when one game is at home and the other is in one of the ACC less-intimidating atmospheres. (Seriously, is there a team anywhere else, outside of Chapel Hill, where the ratio of powerhouse-ery to crowd atmosphere is so huge?) Theory on this: these three teams are completely on another level athletically, above and beyond what UVA's gotten used to seeing the past month (or more) and it took a little time to get used to. When they did, which was right about halftime of the UNC game, the game slowed down again.
I've been including the upcoming NC State game in the stretch of doom calculations, but if you believe the above theory, it might be more of a blowout than I've been assuming. I mean, BeeJay Anya's a pretty good player, but once you've tried to score on Montrezl Harrell, can it be that much harder? I still think it's a dangerous game.
That said, the chances are excellent that UVA loses just one game the rest of the way at the most, which should worry a league that all sits at least two losses behind. Beating Duke would've been great and all, but there isn't a soul among us who wouldn't have taken two out of those last three, if offered beforehand. And UVA has held double-digit leads in all three games. Despite the loss, this was a test passed with flying colors so far; if they finish the final portion of it, another long and relatively relaxing stretch awaits.
****************************************************
-- It's been a while since I wrote this, so it was of course bound to rear its ugly head in a huge way: We still can't have nice things. Justin Anderson's fractured finger capped a very rough injury stretch (at least, I really hope that capped it) in which UVA lost its top scorer in basketball, top hitter in baseball, and top defenseman in lacrosse. Already thin from the transfer loss of Greg Danseglio, the lacrosse team really could not afford losing Tanner Scales to an Achilles' heel, but it did anyway. Joe McCarthy's back surgery leaves a gaping hole in the lineup. And of course, something had to be up when Evan Nolte started the second half.
Weirdly, even in a game where Anderson got hurt, Marial Shayok only got four minutes. I might automatically assume he and Nolte would pick up most of Anderson's minutes, if not for that stat. It's still logical, but Tony's been tinkering with the back end of the lineup a bit and I wouldn't make any hard-and-fast guesses for NC State, let alone four weeks from now. Good news is there's a reasonable chance Anderson is back for postseason play.
-- You have to love Syracuse, which could at any time have chosen to take a postseason sanction but chose to do it in the middle of a season that wasn't likely to land them in the NCAAs anyway.... and then throw a pity party for Rakeem Christmas's playoff dreams. Does it suck that Christmas's Syracuse career ends without any tournaments of any kind? Yes, but to avoid that, Syracuse might have had to feel a little more pain from the self-sanction. So Christmas gets thrown to the wolves, and just for a bonus, gets to be used by Syracuse as the face of their passive-aggressive campaign against having to bear such a brutal punishment. How cynical.
-- Sometimes the basketball gods are just. Not when they put Anderson's finger in a splint, no, but take Darion Atkins. Atkins dogged a Louisville player into a turnover just seconds after a defensive rebound, giving the Hoos the ball right back.... and then Atkins scored on the ensuing possession. Feed the guy who made the play - I like it.
-- I was reminded again why I like Doris Burke. 75% of sideline reporters ask the stupidest %@#&ing questions, mostly: "describe your emotions." Burke pinpointed a matchup she wanted to ask about - and made a good choice - and in doing so gave Tony Bennett an opportunity to sing the praises of a deserving player, which he proceeded to do.
-- Lacrosse starts the season the same way as last year: a one-goal win over Loyola. Now that the season is underway, that would be a good time to write a season preview, yes? This week. Short version of the game: offense good, defense eh.
-- I put together the next round of ACC simulations, but that's gonna wait til Tuesday also. So now here they are:
UVA is a frightening lock for the 1 seed; it'd take a mathematically unlikely face-fall to drop out of the top spot. What's a bit more surprising is the tight grip Duke has on #2, and UNC on #5. Neither have much of a schedule left, except each other. KenPom likes GT a lot more than the standings show, though, and UNC also has to visit Miami; that, combined with Duke's higher pythag, accounts for a lot of the difference. Fortunately, it makes sense; Duke owns the tiebreaker on everyone in the top 5 except for UNC, who they haven't played yet. By virtue of being the only team to beat UVA while the rest of the contenders have all lost, they're in great shape.
This is a great year to show off the excellence of the tourney format; five great teams looking for four double-bye slots. It might not matter early, because the first opponent will be a putz (either #12 or #13) and then you play the 4 seed anyway, but the extra game might de-freshen the legs a little as the tourney heads toward Sunday.
Me, I'd definitely welcome a Sunday rematch of last year's final. Both teams would be motivated by recent losses to the other, and the chance to beat Duke two years in a row would spark whispery but unmistakeable changing-of-the-guard talk. Not to be premature or anything.
Monday, January 26, 2015
rock fights
So to be completely frank, if this terrific win streak must come to an end at some point, I'd prefer just about anywhere but Blacksburg. So it was with a little trepidation that I watched the Hokies take a ten-point lead in front of a Cassell Coliseum crowd that wasn't precisely packed to the gills, but was a lot fuller and louder than it's been for most of the season.
This is normally the point where you'd think "but that didn't last for long," but truth is it did. Various reports of the game call it a rally. Nothing of the sort happened. A rally implies a flurry of activity, a swift change in fortunes. The Hoos just stopped letting VT score, is all. VT stopped hitting shots they'd been hitting, they went back to giving the ball away a few times (like they'd done in the first half) and a glacial eight minutes after VT was up ten, the lead finally disappeared completely. There was no Cavalanche, just a big, 11-minute stop on defense and a fun play or two along the way.
It illustrates a philosophy of Tony's completely: you better play defense if you hope to come back from a deficit. Offense will happen if you don't panic, but you sure as hell ain't closing that gap if the other guys keep scoring.
So the march continues. One imagines it'll stop in the next couple weeks. Four very difficult matchups present themselves: Duke and Louisville roll into town, and the Hoos make two trips to the Triangle for UNC and NC State. KenPom says the UNC game is the toughest left on the schedule, being as it's on the road; I think it's the two home games that are the toughest matchups on paper, but the Hoos have been playing much better at home of late than on the road. Georgia Tech was mercilessly ground into powder because UVA had a home crowd behind them and the Jackets are pitiful shooters from outside four feet.
No league has as many legitimate national title contenders as the ACC, and UVA's schedule is the streakiest of any of them, so it might be fair to say these next couple weeks will be the longest, toughest stretch faced by any of the country's best teams. Even in the Big 12, which is looking a little like the ACC used to, 15 years ago. ESPN's Dana O'Neil did a rather awkwardly-premised article that boils down to "ACC and Big 12 teams will beat each other up and most of the rest of the country will coast."** If that goose egg comes out the other end unscathed, the hype machine is going all the way to 11.
**I thoroughly love the characterization of UVA as a "veteran team that actually likes games to be rock fights." That's a good identity. All we need now is a recruit who's been called "Psycho T Junior" and a Kiwi kid who thinks it's rugby. Where can we find guys like that, I wonder.
**********************************************
-- Malcolm Brogdon had a fantastic little layup against Georgia Tech where he decided on a change of plan midair. It was a damn familiar-looking play:
Even more similar in motion, in fact. Except for the finish.
(Yes, I'm gonna let you stew on it if you're drawing a blank on the bottom play.)
-- Buzz Williams is amusingly demonstrative, yes, but as much as he was on the case of the refs, I'm wondering if he realizes offensive fouls do exist in the rulebook.
-- Buzz is likely going to turn VT into a not-laughingstock, maybe even do what Seth Greenberg only ever did once, and get them to the tourney. He might not even leave for so-called greener pastures; Whit Babcock appears to actually mind being a basketball backwater, and will give him an ACC contract with an ACC budget for assistants and upgrade his buildings to ACC-quality facilities. Even seeing that is worth it, because of the gift of Marial Shayok, who looks like the future of UVA ball. He's got the scoring versatility that sometimes takes years to develop.
-- Speaking of developed scoring ability, man it would've been cool if Darion Atkins hadn't had shin splints that set his development back light years. The guy wearing #5 now for UVA is the guy that Tony Bennett and Mike Brey fought a pitched recruiting battle over, back in 2010. There are some faint similarities to Mike Scott showing through, the way he likes to operate on offense in a range ring around the net, the way he sometimes says, "ok, you want me to shoot this, I'll shoot it," and knocks it right down. Senior year has been incredibly good to Atkins, there's no doubt about it.
-- GameDay notwithstanding, I'd rather play Duke this Wednesday, all things considered. Coming off an emotional win and heading on the road, from an intangibles perspective there are few riper upsets than Notre Dame over Duke this week. I think they'll get a cold-water reality check in South Bend, and I'd rather be the team giving it to them than the team right after.
**********************************************
-- North Carolina and Wake Forest are charter members of the ACC, and have shared a conference since 1936 when Wake joined the Southern Conference. It's about an hour and a half drive between the two schools. They first met in football in 1888 and have played 105 games against each other. That meeting in 1888 was the first college football game in the state of North Carolina. So it makes perfect sense that they'd want to play each other more than once every goddam seven years. Nice college football world you've delivered us, O oligarchs of the sport. Throw bread and circuses at the drooling masses in the form of a playoff thing, and meantime make sure you set everything else up to make the least sense possible.
Of course, I don't gripe without offering a solution (much) and I've already put forth a great idea to fix the problem. The best idea.
-- It was interesting to read about WR transfer T.J. Thorpe in this Jeff White article; coming to UVA was already on his mind (and leaving UNC was already decided) even as he was catching the game-winning touchdown against in October. That kind of thing is probably more common than is ever reported, especially in basketball, but it's rarely admitted.
-- Lacrosse season is here sooner than you think, so it's a good time to loosen up for it by starting with opinionz on the newest rule changes:
* Faceoff rule changes: They'll be just about transparent to the vast majority of everyone watching the game. Former FOGO guys might get interviewed by Inside Lacrosse or something, and air their gripes or praises, but nobody else will see a difference. Cleaning up faceoff play is generally always welcome, but most of the time when a faceoff violation is called, nobody ever sees what happened anyway. This won't change anything.
* Timeout changes: If the ball is to be restarted from inside the field of play, such as on an offside call, only the team with the ball can call timeout. Nobody really was complaining about that, but it's a small positive tweak nonetheless.
* Phase-in of a requirement to have a 30-second shot clock displayed for when stall warnings are given out; previously, the refs kept the time themselves and the players were left to guess. I emphatically don't want a shot clock in lacrosse, but "some schools can't afford them" was always one of the lamest arguments against them. Spend a couple hundred dollars, man. Not having the clock on the field was like having basketball's block-charge arc in the rulebook but not on the court, and the same bullshit poverty reason was given for not painting them on. This is both a positive step for the rules as they're written now, and a huge negative step in that it smells strongly of a precursor to having the full-time shot clock instituted for good.
* You can now land in the crease after scoring, provided you didn't leave your feet before you shot. Fine, good, dandy, because invariably you'd see about three to five perfectly good goals a year called back for that, and they shouldn't be. Good compromise between not letting people just launch themselves and not forcing them to make like the Flying Wallendas around the crease.
* Addition of an over-and-back rule. Used to be they'd either require you to go through the clearing clock again, or put on a stall warning if you were just being stubborn about sitting on the ball. Now you lose the ball right away, like in basketball, and this is suddenly a really dangerous thing to do because it's a quick restart and the ball is already in your defensive half with a wide-open field to play with.
* Last year for these jerseys, because in 2016 your numbers will have to contrast. Never liked those.
-- With a big basketball game this Saturday and lacrosse and baseball fast approaching, I feel a few midweek posts coming on.
This is normally the point where you'd think "but that didn't last for long," but truth is it did. Various reports of the game call it a rally. Nothing of the sort happened. A rally implies a flurry of activity, a swift change in fortunes. The Hoos just stopped letting VT score, is all. VT stopped hitting shots they'd been hitting, they went back to giving the ball away a few times (like they'd done in the first half) and a glacial eight minutes after VT was up ten, the lead finally disappeared completely. There was no Cavalanche, just a big, 11-minute stop on defense and a fun play or two along the way.
It illustrates a philosophy of Tony's completely: you better play defense if you hope to come back from a deficit. Offense will happen if you don't panic, but you sure as hell ain't closing that gap if the other guys keep scoring.
So the march continues. One imagines it'll stop in the next couple weeks. Four very difficult matchups present themselves: Duke and Louisville roll into town, and the Hoos make two trips to the Triangle for UNC and NC State. KenPom says the UNC game is the toughest left on the schedule, being as it's on the road; I think it's the two home games that are the toughest matchups on paper, but the Hoos have been playing much better at home of late than on the road. Georgia Tech was mercilessly ground into powder because UVA had a home crowd behind them and the Jackets are pitiful shooters from outside four feet.
No league has as many legitimate national title contenders as the ACC, and UVA's schedule is the streakiest of any of them, so it might be fair to say these next couple weeks will be the longest, toughest stretch faced by any of the country's best teams. Even in the Big 12, which is looking a little like the ACC used to, 15 years ago. ESPN's Dana O'Neil did a rather awkwardly-premised article that boils down to "ACC and Big 12 teams will beat each other up and most of the rest of the country will coast."** If that goose egg comes out the other end unscathed, the hype machine is going all the way to 11.
**I thoroughly love the characterization of UVA as a "veteran team that actually likes games to be rock fights." That's a good identity. All we need now is a recruit who's been called "Psycho T Junior" and a Kiwi kid who thinks it's rugby. Where can we find guys like that, I wonder.
**********************************************
-- Malcolm Brogdon had a fantastic little layup against Georgia Tech where he decided on a change of plan midair. It was a damn familiar-looking play:
Even more similar in motion, in fact. Except for the finish.
(Yes, I'm gonna let you stew on it if you're drawing a blank on the bottom play.)
-- Buzz Williams is amusingly demonstrative, yes, but as much as he was on the case of the refs, I'm wondering if he realizes offensive fouls do exist in the rulebook.
-- Buzz is likely going to turn VT into a not-laughingstock, maybe even do what Seth Greenberg only ever did once, and get them to the tourney. He might not even leave for so-called greener pastures; Whit Babcock appears to actually mind being a basketball backwater, and will give him an ACC contract with an ACC budget for assistants and upgrade his buildings to ACC-quality facilities. Even seeing that is worth it, because of the gift of Marial Shayok, who looks like the future of UVA ball. He's got the scoring versatility that sometimes takes years to develop.
-- Speaking of developed scoring ability, man it would've been cool if Darion Atkins hadn't had shin splints that set his development back light years. The guy wearing #5 now for UVA is the guy that Tony Bennett and Mike Brey fought a pitched recruiting battle over, back in 2010. There are some faint similarities to Mike Scott showing through, the way he likes to operate on offense in a range ring around the net, the way he sometimes says, "ok, you want me to shoot this, I'll shoot it," and knocks it right down. Senior year has been incredibly good to Atkins, there's no doubt about it.
-- GameDay notwithstanding, I'd rather play Duke this Wednesday, all things considered. Coming off an emotional win and heading on the road, from an intangibles perspective there are few riper upsets than Notre Dame over Duke this week. I think they'll get a cold-water reality check in South Bend, and I'd rather be the team giving it to them than the team right after.
**********************************************
-- North Carolina and Wake Forest are charter members of the ACC, and have shared a conference since 1936 when Wake joined the Southern Conference. It's about an hour and a half drive between the two schools. They first met in football in 1888 and have played 105 games against each other. That meeting in 1888 was the first college football game in the state of North Carolina. So it makes perfect sense that they'd want to play each other more than once every goddam seven years. Nice college football world you've delivered us, O oligarchs of the sport. Throw bread and circuses at the drooling masses in the form of a playoff thing, and meantime make sure you set everything else up to make the least sense possible.
Of course, I don't gripe without offering a solution (much) and I've already put forth a great idea to fix the problem. The best idea.
-- It was interesting to read about WR transfer T.J. Thorpe in this Jeff White article; coming to UVA was already on his mind (and leaving UNC was already decided) even as he was catching the game-winning touchdown against in October. That kind of thing is probably more common than is ever reported, especially in basketball, but it's rarely admitted.
-- Lacrosse season is here sooner than you think, so it's a good time to loosen up for it by starting with opinionz on the newest rule changes:
* Faceoff rule changes: They'll be just about transparent to the vast majority of everyone watching the game. Former FOGO guys might get interviewed by Inside Lacrosse or something, and air their gripes or praises, but nobody else will see a difference. Cleaning up faceoff play is generally always welcome, but most of the time when a faceoff violation is called, nobody ever sees what happened anyway. This won't change anything.
* Timeout changes: If the ball is to be restarted from inside the field of play, such as on an offside call, only the team with the ball can call timeout. Nobody really was complaining about that, but it's a small positive tweak nonetheless.
* Phase-in of a requirement to have a 30-second shot clock displayed for when stall warnings are given out; previously, the refs kept the time themselves and the players were left to guess. I emphatically don't want a shot clock in lacrosse, but "some schools can't afford them" was always one of the lamest arguments against them. Spend a couple hundred dollars, man. Not having the clock on the field was like having basketball's block-charge arc in the rulebook but not on the court, and the same bullshit poverty reason was given for not painting them on. This is both a positive step for the rules as they're written now, and a huge negative step in that it smells strongly of a precursor to having the full-time shot clock instituted for good.
* You can now land in the crease after scoring, provided you didn't leave your feet before you shot. Fine, good, dandy, because invariably you'd see about three to five perfectly good goals a year called back for that, and they shouldn't be. Good compromise between not letting people just launch themselves and not forcing them to make like the Flying Wallendas around the crease.
* Addition of an over-and-back rule. Used to be they'd either require you to go through the clearing clock again, or put on a stall warning if you were just being stubborn about sitting on the ball. Now you lose the ball right away, like in basketball, and this is suddenly a really dangerous thing to do because it's a quick restart and the ball is already in your defensive half with a wide-open field to play with.
* Last year for these jerseys, because in 2016 your numbers will have to contrast. Never liked those.
-- With a big basketball game this Saturday and lacrosse and baseball fast approaching, I feel a few midweek posts coming on.
Monday, January 5, 2015
let the games begin
PHEW. I was planning on writing about four paragraphs on how this basketball team will lose at some point and we should enjoy this undefeated stuff to the fullest while it lasts but understand that it's coming to an end eventually and that's OK. Miami drove home the point for me pretty well, though.
It's a lesson that now doesn't have to be learned the hard way, because UVA out-gutted and out-gunned the Hurricanes after Miami ran out of ammo. I had forgotten, for a second there, that going on the road in the ACC is never to be taken for granted. Shame. Won't make that mistake again. At least not this year.
For at least a little while longer, though, we still get to enjoy the goose egg in the one place you really want to see it. It's not to be sneezed at; the Hoos survived on a night when half the remaining undefeated teams in the country took a loss. That leaves just UVA, Duke, and Kentucky. The SEC is a putz league, the weakest of the Power 5 and probably worse than the Big East as well, and very likely to leave UK unblemished for a good long time. But I sort of hope Duke stays unbeaten til January 31 (and obviously, I hope we do too) to set up a matchup for the ages.
-- Marial Shayok deserves a ton of credit. Forced into crunch-time minutes when Brogdon fouled out, his defense made a huge difference. Not just in the two blocks that he had after that point; he also did a masterful job limiting Angel Rodriguez. I suspect having much fresher legs had a lot to do with it; nevertheless, it was a huge game for him. Perrantes and Anderson hit the shots and played 45 minutes apiece, and Atkins, very quietly, had a terrific game too. But if defense comes first, Shayok gets the first nod.
-- Speaking of fresher legs, Mike Curtis certainly gets a nod for that game too. "They look tired all of a sudden," I thought as Miami brought up the ball; the announcers were all over it at the same time.
-- One way to tell your team has arrived? Besides all the other really obvious ones, I mean. When the announcers assume you have a "senior-laden team" even when you don't. Sorry, Shane Battier, only one senior here - but they sure do play like they were, don't they?
-- Yes, that was a foul on Justin Anderson at the end there. But also, yes, he was fouled pretty blatantly in OT, too. The announcers made a thing about him kicking his legs out, which was stupid because a flying defender landed on his arm.
-- Against Davidson, the defense gave up some easy layups, and on those plays it was perfectly highlighted why Tony's post defense philosophy is "ball-me-man." The Wildcat post men managed to seal out their defender and prevent any help, which is poison to the pack-line defense; any time you see plays like that, the defender is out of position. Most man defenses emphasize fighting for position in the post and having defenders try and prevent the opposing bigs from gaining position too close to the rim. Tony doesn't much care where the opposing bigs post up - as long as the defenders are in the right position, they can deny entry passes, help on drives (and usually stop them before they start), switch to the other side to help a helper, and throw a quick double-team.
-- ESPN has been spreading the UVA love far and wide these past couple weeks. Anthony Gill and Justin Anderson on the Wooden Watch.** A #1 seed in bracketology. Articles about how awesome the offense is and how the rest of the ACC will give UVA a run for its money. Notice how that last one is not the other way around. UVA is the hunted.
Why should we care what the WWL thinks? Because perception is reality in the recruiting world. The ultimate goal is not to be able to win the battle of the recruiting rankings (even though, for now, UVA sits atop the 24/7 rankings after winning the commitment of Sacha Killeya-Jones). The ultimate goal is for Tony to be able to walk into any gym in the country, say, "I want that guy right there," and be at the top of that guy's list immediately.
That Medcalf article, by the way, the second one linked, I feel like it's part of a slightly disturbing trend, which is to forget that Louisville is a major contender just because they lost to Kentucky. I would not like to see that team unleash its considerable athletic talent upon a perception of being disrespected. It's not Duke and UVA and everyone else; it's Duke, UVA, Louisville, and maybe UNC if they get their shit together, and if they don't, Notre Dame.
**Unless someone else totally runs away with the award, Jahlil Okafor will win because he wears the tiebreaker on his chest. But some All-American selections are not out of the question.
-- You know how I said we should drop Maryland from our schedules and add Georgetown just for spite, because Maryland won't play Georgetown? Bwa-ha-ha the lacrosse schedulers listened. Maryland is no more, and UVA will host the Hoyas as the final game of the season.
Actually, it's best looked at like this: Maryland is not replaced on the schedule. There are only 13 games instead of last year's 14, but that's to be expected because the ACC was temporarily larger last year. Georgetown - which hasn't been good at all lately - is Bellarmine's replacement, and UVA also dropped longtime OOC opponent Mount St. Mary's in favor of the recently-not-shitty St. Joseph's Hawks. St. Joe's was once a laughingstock and is now very middle-of-the-road. I'd still say, it's an easier schedule than last year, a bit.
That's OK, I still prefer to think we replaced Maryland with Georgetown, and if Georgetown had a football team of any consequence I'd start the Put-Them-In-The-ACC bandwagon in a hot minute.
-- One thing that will sting and make that road harder is the loss of Greg Danseglio to Maryland. All the more reason to be glad they're gone, I suppose; Danseglio was half of a veteran long-pole duo that would've formed the core of the defense. Now it's Tanner Scales and inexperience. UVA also looks to be missing their one over-.500 face-off guy from last year, Mick Parks; knee surgery is the message-board chatter. This is a very young team this year and the leading candidate to finish 5 of 5 in the ACC.
-- Speaking of which, sharp-eyed watchers noticed this earlier, I didn't but I think it's fair to be excused because I don't think the ACC even bothered to announce it - placing 5th of 5 in the conference this year earns you a trip to the tournament in Philly anyway, only you'll be playing Penn. Creative. And no doubt an easy sell to Penn - no travel expenses and an RPI-booster against an ACC team that you'll have a decent shot at beating.
-- I finally got off my ass and finished a game highlight, and there's another one on the way very shortly. I randomly picked last year's Maryland game off the considerable backlog. It's linked in the video library there. I don't think that backlog will be fully addressed til the summer, but I'm settling into a routine of working on them and I can at least get you new stuff on a steady basis.
It's a lesson that now doesn't have to be learned the hard way, because UVA out-gutted and out-gunned the Hurricanes after Miami ran out of ammo. I had forgotten, for a second there, that going on the road in the ACC is never to be taken for granted. Shame. Won't make that mistake again. At least not this year.
For at least a little while longer, though, we still get to enjoy the goose egg in the one place you really want to see it. It's not to be sneezed at; the Hoos survived on a night when half the remaining undefeated teams in the country took a loss. That leaves just UVA, Duke, and Kentucky. The SEC is a putz league, the weakest of the Power 5 and probably worse than the Big East as well, and very likely to leave UK unblemished for a good long time. But I sort of hope Duke stays unbeaten til January 31 (and obviously, I hope we do too) to set up a matchup for the ages.
-- Marial Shayok deserves a ton of credit. Forced into crunch-time minutes when Brogdon fouled out, his defense made a huge difference. Not just in the two blocks that he had after that point; he also did a masterful job limiting Angel Rodriguez. I suspect having much fresher legs had a lot to do with it; nevertheless, it was a huge game for him. Perrantes and Anderson hit the shots and played 45 minutes apiece, and Atkins, very quietly, had a terrific game too. But if defense comes first, Shayok gets the first nod.
-- Speaking of fresher legs, Mike Curtis certainly gets a nod for that game too. "They look tired all of a sudden," I thought as Miami brought up the ball; the announcers were all over it at the same time.
-- One way to tell your team has arrived? Besides all the other really obvious ones, I mean. When the announcers assume you have a "senior-laden team" even when you don't. Sorry, Shane Battier, only one senior here - but they sure do play like they were, don't they?
-- Yes, that was a foul on Justin Anderson at the end there. But also, yes, he was fouled pretty blatantly in OT, too. The announcers made a thing about him kicking his legs out, which was stupid because a flying defender landed on his arm.
-- Against Davidson, the defense gave up some easy layups, and on those plays it was perfectly highlighted why Tony's post defense philosophy is "ball-me-man." The Wildcat post men managed to seal out their defender and prevent any help, which is poison to the pack-line defense; any time you see plays like that, the defender is out of position. Most man defenses emphasize fighting for position in the post and having defenders try and prevent the opposing bigs from gaining position too close to the rim. Tony doesn't much care where the opposing bigs post up - as long as the defenders are in the right position, they can deny entry passes, help on drives (and usually stop them before they start), switch to the other side to help a helper, and throw a quick double-team.
-- ESPN has been spreading the UVA love far and wide these past couple weeks. Anthony Gill and Justin Anderson on the Wooden Watch.** A #1 seed in bracketology. Articles about how awesome the offense is and how the rest of the ACC will give UVA a run for its money. Notice how that last one is not the other way around. UVA is the hunted.
Why should we care what the WWL thinks? Because perception is reality in the recruiting world. The ultimate goal is not to be able to win the battle of the recruiting rankings (even though, for now, UVA sits atop the 24/7 rankings after winning the commitment of Sacha Killeya-Jones). The ultimate goal is for Tony to be able to walk into any gym in the country, say, "I want that guy right there," and be at the top of that guy's list immediately.
That Medcalf article, by the way, the second one linked, I feel like it's part of a slightly disturbing trend, which is to forget that Louisville is a major contender just because they lost to Kentucky. I would not like to see that team unleash its considerable athletic talent upon a perception of being disrespected. It's not Duke and UVA and everyone else; it's Duke, UVA, Louisville, and maybe UNC if they get their shit together, and if they don't, Notre Dame.
**Unless someone else totally runs away with the award, Jahlil Okafor will win because he wears the tiebreaker on his chest. But some All-American selections are not out of the question.
-- You know how I said we should drop Maryland from our schedules and add Georgetown just for spite, because Maryland won't play Georgetown? Bwa-ha-ha the lacrosse schedulers listened. Maryland is no more, and UVA will host the Hoyas as the final game of the season.
Actually, it's best looked at like this: Maryland is not replaced on the schedule. There are only 13 games instead of last year's 14, but that's to be expected because the ACC was temporarily larger last year. Georgetown - which hasn't been good at all lately - is Bellarmine's replacement, and UVA also dropped longtime OOC opponent Mount St. Mary's in favor of the recently-not-shitty St. Joseph's Hawks. St. Joe's was once a laughingstock and is now very middle-of-the-road. I'd still say, it's an easier schedule than last year, a bit.
That's OK, I still prefer to think we replaced Maryland with Georgetown, and if Georgetown had a football team of any consequence I'd start the Put-Them-In-The-ACC bandwagon in a hot minute.
-- One thing that will sting and make that road harder is the loss of Greg Danseglio to Maryland. All the more reason to be glad they're gone, I suppose; Danseglio was half of a veteran long-pole duo that would've formed the core of the defense. Now it's Tanner Scales and inexperience. UVA also looks to be missing their one over-.500 face-off guy from last year, Mick Parks; knee surgery is the message-board chatter. This is a very young team this year and the leading candidate to finish 5 of 5 in the ACC.
-- Speaking of which, sharp-eyed watchers noticed this earlier, I didn't but I think it's fair to be excused because I don't think the ACC even bothered to announce it - placing 5th of 5 in the conference this year earns you a trip to the tournament in Philly anyway, only you'll be playing Penn. Creative. And no doubt an easy sell to Penn - no travel expenses and an RPI-booster against an ACC team that you'll have a decent shot at beating.
-- I finally got off my ass and finished a game highlight, and there's another one on the way very shortly. I randomly picked last year's Maryland game off the considerable backlog. It's linked in the video library there. I don't think that backlog will be fully addressed til the summer, but I'm settling into a routine of working on them and I can at least get you new stuff on a steady basis.
Monday, November 17, 2014
first impressions
If the Hoos are gonna do anything this year that even remotely resembles last year, it'll take important contributions from freshmen. We knew that going in; the exciting thing was finding out who could do what, and who would step up the highest. Tony Bennett likes to keep things under heavy wraps during the fall, so this weekend was our first really good look at how he planned on using these guys and what they could do.
Obvious and screaming caveat about quality of competition remains. Neither JMU nor NSU provide anything resembling a real test. We might be able to make better predictions a week from now, with the GW game in the books. But this post is going to be largely about comparing the freshmen to each other, so this is still plenty useful.
The rotation is the most important thing, and it has very little to do with the competition. Tony gave us a lot of info after the Norfolk State game. Still figuring things out, yes, of course - Tony has always used the early part of the season to figure things out, and doing so is a feature, not a bug. Basketball teams are chemistry experiments, especially with so many new ingredients. He always manages to have things right by the time an ACC opponent rolls into town.
Second, he mentioned a 10-man rotation, at least for now. Jack Salt didn't play a minute, even when the bench was emptied, so it don't take a rocket surgeon to riddle that one out. B.J. Stith got a few minutes, but some of them came with the walk-ons, and the rest of them in that mid-first-half area where the back-end guys go in sometimes. With a 10-man rotation, and 10 scholarship players getting double-digit minutes and the other one getting a handful, it shouldn't be hard to figure that out either. Stith is the odd man out of the rotation, at least for now. He'll almost certainly pick up a bagload of DNP-CDs this year.
(Tangent: I don't mind this, by the way. Most everyone's instinct is to say that if he's not going to give us meaningful minutes, he should redshirt, end of discussion. Yes, it makes sense to want that fifth year out of him, but keep in mind this, too: basketball players transfer at the drop of a hat, and always think they should be playing. Most programs try to keep everyone happy by juggling 13 players, and sometimes that works and usually it doesn't, and players leave. Coaches tend to over-promise when they're recruiting. Tony's never anything but up front with these guys, and doesn't redshirt anyone who's not OK with it. If someone tells him they don't want to redshirt and they'll take their chances with whatever minutes Tony dishes out, and Tony redshirts them anyway, well.... five years is better than four, but four is better than two.)
So that leaves three newcomers to the rotation: Hall, Shayok, and Wilkins. Hall appears to be following the lead of London Perrantes a bit, by which I mean he looks for his own shot about as often and at similar times. But I think there are signs he'll be considered the superior defender by season's end. One of those signs is probably the "5" in the JMU game steals column. He's more aggressive than Perrantes, who's one of the team's more conservative defenders. Getting five steals while only fouling once, that's outstanding.
Shayok, now. Main thing I thought he showed off was an ability to score a lot of different ways. He wasn't afraid to launch a three, and he looked comfortable going to the rim too. "Versatile" was the word on him, and he looked it. Everyone from Tony on down warned against falling in love with the three-ball after the NSU game, but the fact is, it's nice to know they might actually be able to shoot it.
Shayok looked pretty good on defense, too, but so far my favorite of the three main newcomers is Wilkins. And defense, of course, is the reason. Wilkins shot down two NSU attempts in one possession, but that wasn't my favorite play - an NSU player attempting to drive met with a Wilkins shot-block without Wilkins even having to move his feet. Yes, it was my imagination, but I swear I saw Wilkins give the guy a "really?" look before tossing the shot back where it came from. This is to say nothing of his JMU stat line, one which made the Swiss Army knife characterization look awfully prescient. Wilkins could be a big piece of the replacement puzzle for Akil Mitchell.
The missing link in all this analysis is that nothing the Dukes or Spartans did was able to expose any real weaknesses on these guys. It's easy and unfair to get swept away in expectations. But the truth is, Tony was able to use his freshmen and not see a scary-looking drop in quality of play. That's reassuring. Shayok and Wilkins looked the best of the bunch, but they all looked like they belonged.
Obvious and screaming caveat about quality of competition remains. Neither JMU nor NSU provide anything resembling a real test. We might be able to make better predictions a week from now, with the GW game in the books. But this post is going to be largely about comparing the freshmen to each other, so this is still plenty useful.
The rotation is the most important thing, and it has very little to do with the competition. Tony gave us a lot of info after the Norfolk State game. Still figuring things out, yes, of course - Tony has always used the early part of the season to figure things out, and doing so is a feature, not a bug. Basketball teams are chemistry experiments, especially with so many new ingredients. He always manages to have things right by the time an ACC opponent rolls into town.
Second, he mentioned a 10-man rotation, at least for now. Jack Salt didn't play a minute, even when the bench was emptied, so it don't take a rocket surgeon to riddle that one out. B.J. Stith got a few minutes, but some of them came with the walk-ons, and the rest of them in that mid-first-half area where the back-end guys go in sometimes. With a 10-man rotation, and 10 scholarship players getting double-digit minutes and the other one getting a handful, it shouldn't be hard to figure that out either. Stith is the odd man out of the rotation, at least for now. He'll almost certainly pick up a bagload of DNP-CDs this year.
(Tangent: I don't mind this, by the way. Most everyone's instinct is to say that if he's not going to give us meaningful minutes, he should redshirt, end of discussion. Yes, it makes sense to want that fifth year out of him, but keep in mind this, too: basketball players transfer at the drop of a hat, and always think they should be playing. Most programs try to keep everyone happy by juggling 13 players, and sometimes that works and usually it doesn't, and players leave. Coaches tend to over-promise when they're recruiting. Tony's never anything but up front with these guys, and doesn't redshirt anyone who's not OK with it. If someone tells him they don't want to redshirt and they'll take their chances with whatever minutes Tony dishes out, and Tony redshirts them anyway, well.... five years is better than four, but four is better than two.)
So that leaves three newcomers to the rotation: Hall, Shayok, and Wilkins. Hall appears to be following the lead of London Perrantes a bit, by which I mean he looks for his own shot about as often and at similar times. But I think there are signs he'll be considered the superior defender by season's end. One of those signs is probably the "5" in the JMU game steals column. He's more aggressive than Perrantes, who's one of the team's more conservative defenders. Getting five steals while only fouling once, that's outstanding.
Shayok, now. Main thing I thought he showed off was an ability to score a lot of different ways. He wasn't afraid to launch a three, and he looked comfortable going to the rim too. "Versatile" was the word on him, and he looked it. Everyone from Tony on down warned against falling in love with the three-ball after the NSU game, but the fact is, it's nice to know they might actually be able to shoot it.
Shayok looked pretty good on defense, too, but so far my favorite of the three main newcomers is Wilkins. And defense, of course, is the reason. Wilkins shot down two NSU attempts in one possession, but that wasn't my favorite play - an NSU player attempting to drive met with a Wilkins shot-block without Wilkins even having to move his feet. Yes, it was my imagination, but I swear I saw Wilkins give the guy a "really?" look before tossing the shot back where it came from. This is to say nothing of his JMU stat line, one which made the Swiss Army knife characterization look awfully prescient. Wilkins could be a big piece of the replacement puzzle for Akil Mitchell.
The missing link in all this analysis is that nothing the Dukes or Spartans did was able to expose any real weaknesses on these guys. It's easy and unfair to get swept away in expectations. But the truth is, Tony was able to use his freshmen and not see a scary-looking drop in quality of play. That's reassuring. Shayok and Wilkins looked the best of the bunch, but they all looked like they belonged.
Wednesday, November 5, 2014
2014 hoops preview: players, part 1
yeeessssssssss it's that time
you know my name now.
What a difference a really ridiculously good year makes. Last season we kicked this off by taking note of some of the various preseason projections for UVA, and I added about ten exclamation points to the one that had UVA 11th in the season. Now you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone putting the Hoos that low. About the only thing that's the same is that UVA is still predicted fourth in the conference by the preseason media poll, but the rest of the contenders had to rise a lot higher in the rankings for that not to look silly.
There's not a lot of roster turnover from the team that won the completely undisputed and unshared ACC championship. Joe Harris and Akil Mitchell have graduated, sent on their way in perfect style and now trying to carve out a niche in the NBA. Mike Scott's done it, so you'd be a fool to bet against them. Teven Jones transferred out; initially he was headed to Appalachian State, but would've lost a year of eligibility, so he resurfaced at Tarleton State, out in East Bum, Texas. He'll be thirty miles past the middle of nowhere, but Tarleton State has a really highly-ranked D-II program, and probably will be even better for his arrival.
Replacing them on the roster are four freshmen and a transfer, finally filling out the quota of 13 scholarship players. Darius Thompson, who played a year for Cuonzo Martin at Tennessee and then transferred up our way when Martin left, is taking his mandatory redshirt year, which leaves 12 eligible guys. This means some hard decisions; Tony prefers a rotation of about nine or ten, and that tenth guy tends to get squeezed out as the season goes on. He also prefers to put off redshirt decisions (or at least, put off telling us about them) to the last minute, so this preview is going to speak of all four freshman as if they'll play, but with the understanding that maybe two of them actually will.
And as always, you're going to have to wait til later to get the whole thing. First half today.
#0 - Devon Hall - rFr. PG
One newcomer we know for sure about though: Devon Hall will be on the court. This is the kinda cool thing about establishing a pattern of redshirting incoming freshmen, which by the way is awfully rare in basketball. You get your new wave of freshmen, but you also get an infusion of brand-new talent who knows the ropes a little bit.
This team is quickly becoming the property of London Perrantes, who came in as the surprise second point guard after Hall looked like the handpicked one. Perrantes made himself damn well indispensible last year while Hall sat. But there's an obvious role for Hall now, and interestingly it's mainly to do with losing Harris.
Ever since Malcolm Brogdon set foot on the court, the deal with him has been, "ok, he can run the point, but how can we find a way for him not to?" With Harris gone, Brogdon has to shoulder the lead scorer's role. Simply put, Brogdon is going to be the go-to guy, a role which he started to ease into last year (how about that shot at Pitt?) and which he'll be better at if he's not concerned with playing backup point. While Bennett doesn't make it a point to have a dedicated, rigidly-defined point guard, the ideal situation is if Hall's and Perrantes's minutes percentages add up to just about 100.
The scouting report on Hall was that he was very much a pass-first point guard. I wonder how well that's stood up over time. Hall will basically be backing up Perrantes, which means he'll see a lot of time playing with and against second units. It's one thing to look to set up your teammates if you're looking inside to Anthony Gill or outside to Brogdon. It might be different if you have less of a scoring contingent on the floor and are facing off against other second-stringers. I don't know that I have a lot of concrete reason to say this, but I think Hall will be encouraged to find his shot. He's going to have a big size advantage against most other 1's that defend him, and he won't give up much in the quickness department. It's always interesting when you put the offense in the hands of someone new, but if Hall can be a scoring punch off the bench, UVA's depth would be really scary. Doesn't have to be much. A steady four, five points a game would do it. UVA's backcourt is fairly young this year, so a good-sized contribution from Hall is more important than it might seem.
#1 - Justin Anderson - Jr. SF
Winning makes UVA basketball fun to watch. Justin Anderson makes it entertaining. Anderson is always described as wildly athletic, and he can definitely jump.... but, truth is, he's not jumping out of the gym nor flying out of his shoes. Anderson is blessed with incredible body control that lets him pull off ridiculous moves that you swear he ripped off of Cirque du Soleil, resulting in highlight-reel blocks, saves, steals, passes, and dunks. And he plays with an infectious enthusiasm and a Cheshire cat grin.
Anderson basically does everything pretty well. Even his shot-blocking, while flashy, isn't all the way up the stat charts. He's simply not always in position to do it, because he's not usually a post defender, and most of his blocks come on breakaways or when he or a teammate is otherwise beat. Besides that body control, Anderson has an impeccable sense of timing, and a wily ability to bait the opponent into thinking he has a free 'n' clear layup.
He also is a very good passer, a more than adequate and very versatile halfcourt defender, and his two-point shooting percentage was third-best on the team last year (among players who shot enough for a reasonable sample size), largely because he dunks the ball a hell of a lot. Tremendously efficient shot, the slam dunk. He rebounds some, shoots a respectable free throw, and generally does a little bit of everything.
Thing is though - now that he's an upperclassman, more is going to be expected than simply doing most things pretty well. He still could stand to improve his three-point shot, which was at best streaky last year and not too reliable. He's got to take some part of his game - any part of his game, it really doesn't even matter - up a level or two. Lockdown defender, star rebounder, improved scoring touch - whatever it is, it'll help. Basketball teams are fluid things that need a little time to find an identity, and this one can morph its roles to match what Anderson does, as long as he brings something new. Nobody's quite sure if Anderson is ready for a full-time starting role - he looked awfully good coming off the bench, to the extent of being named the media's choice for ACC 6th-man of the year. But if he doesn't move into the starting lineup, we're even less sure who would.
#2 - B.J. Stith - Fr. SG
Over three years ago - that's how long ago B.J. Stith committed to UVA. Remember the Peach Bowl, how long ago that seems? Now go back almost four more months. The hoops team featured Sammy Zeglinski and Assane Sene. And Malcolm Brogdon as a freshman, and jeez he's only a junior now with all his best basketball in front of him and now you know why his teammates like to call him an old-ass man.
So it'd be the apex of cruel irony to make UVA fans wait another year to see a Stith suit up again for the Hoos. I think Stith is among the more likely freshmen to have a role, though. When Brogdon comes off the court, there isn't really a backup two guard. Used to be you could have Harris do that; he could flex easily between the two and three. I don't think you have that kind of player this year, at least, not one that's easily evident; Anderson's not enough of a shooter. Playing Stith would give us a great shot at having a four-man rotation in the backcourt that can score with whatever combo is on the floor.
That's the rationale for playing him. For redshirting him? Defense. Nobody ever really knows until the tipoff exactly what Tony is thinking in terms of defense, but Stith's main competition for playing time is Marial Shayok, who by most accounts is the superior defender, and good enough to earn his way onto the court. If I were handicapping things, I'd tip things ever so slightly in favor of Shayok, which pushes Stith into a redshirt role if he's OK with it. Tony won't redshirt someone who doesn't want to, but won't go out of his way to put him into games, either. Stith has a good head on his shoulders and a dad who won't let him screw himself up, so I'll put in a SWAG here and say Stith redshirts.
#4 - Marial Shayok - Fr. SG
Marquette's loss was the state of Virginia's gain; when Buzz Williams bolted for VT, he took a fair amount of his recruiting class with him, but one of his charges found his way to Charlottesville instead. Shayok definitely adds to the diversity of the team - he's a Sudanese-Canadian, and comes from a basketball family.
He's listed at almost the exact same size as Stith - 6'5", 207 vs. 205 - but there's a clear positional difference. Stith is a shooting guard, full stop. Shayok has more versatility, having played everything from the 1 through the 5 in high school. Despite the size similarities, Shayok is basically more of a three who might grow into a four... but could play some two right now. He has a chance to be that guy who can flex between positions. That, along with his reported quick study on defense, has him in line to get on the court early.
That's a lot to ask for a freshman, true. But when's the last time you saw Tony put an unprepared player on the court? (Hint: No.) Shayok's calling card when he came in was his versatility; I think if he's in the rotation more than a few minutes here and there, that in itself is proof of his ability to guard multiple positions.
#5 - Darion Atkins - Sr. PF
Only one senior on the team this year, and here he is. I don't want to say Atkins had a disappointing season last year, but he did end up in the back end of the rotation. (I do not think it's an attitude problem, as some do suggest; Atkins projects that image with his facial expressions, but - that's just sort of how he looks, all the time.) His peak so far has been the beginning of his sophomore year when he and Mitchell were forming an eye-opening combo of tremendously athletic power forwards that gave teams absolute fits trying to score on them.
Unfortunately, Atkins developed shin splints, which, even when he did play, robbed him of that bounciness, and he looked crushingly average the rest of the way. Last year, he got overtaken, mostly by Anthony Gill, who proved the far superior scorer and a good enough defender.
Now, though, there's no Mitchell. He'll be the hardest player to replace too, no offense to Harris. Mitchell quarterbacked the defense and was never out of position. Atkins probably won't start many games, if at all, and isn't a huge scoring threat. He probably trusts his hook shot a little too much. All the same, helping to replace Mitchell is exactly what he needs to do. Atkins has it in him to be a very good shotblocker, and his offensive rebounding didn't get enough credit last year. If he can carry that over to consistent double-digit minutes every game, he'll be giving us exactly what we need out of him.
#10 - Mike Tobey - Jr. C
Speaking of guys who need to step up. This is a big, big year for Tobey. It would be really unfair to say he's underperformed, but he's also been quite a tease. His game isn't inconsistent. It's just that when he's scoring, he looks smooth and skilled for a big man; when he's not, the same game looks soft and unassertive. It's easy to forget - he's young for his age, to coin a Yogi Berra-ism, and his development is pretty much exactly how it should be. In many respects he's been the victim of his own expectations.
Doesn't let him off the hook to keep on developing, though. 10 points a game is not too much to ask, and it'd be great news for our offense: a consistent scoring source that wasn't there last year. Malcolm Brogdon told ESPN's Andy Katz that the team is going to look inside more, and that's basically code for getting more out of Tobey than 6.4 ppg.
This is doable. Not only does Tobey have very good range for a big, and isn't a hopeless mess at the line like many bigs, his offensive rebounding last year was just shy of elite. He takes care of the ball well, and is also the team's best shot-blocker. He was a starter last year, but was only seventh in minutes; I don't at all expect that to be the case this year. Just getting him on the court for eight more minutes a game will boost his numbers and his impact. Keep him on the development curve at the same time and he's got a chance to open a lot of eyes in the ACC this year.
**********************************************
Game preview as normal tomorrow, and then special weekend-ish continuations of the hoops season preview. Touch not the dial.
you know my name now.
What a difference a really ridiculously good year makes. Last season we kicked this off by taking note of some of the various preseason projections for UVA, and I added about ten exclamation points to the one that had UVA 11th in the season. Now you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone putting the Hoos that low. About the only thing that's the same is that UVA is still predicted fourth in the conference by the preseason media poll, but the rest of the contenders had to rise a lot higher in the rankings for that not to look silly.
There's not a lot of roster turnover from the team that won the completely undisputed and unshared ACC championship. Joe Harris and Akil Mitchell have graduated, sent on their way in perfect style and now trying to carve out a niche in the NBA. Mike Scott's done it, so you'd be a fool to bet against them. Teven Jones transferred out; initially he was headed to Appalachian State, but would've lost a year of eligibility, so he resurfaced at Tarleton State, out in East Bum, Texas. He'll be thirty miles past the middle of nowhere, but Tarleton State has a really highly-ranked D-II program, and probably will be even better for his arrival.
Replacing them on the roster are four freshmen and a transfer, finally filling out the quota of 13 scholarship players. Darius Thompson, who played a year for Cuonzo Martin at Tennessee and then transferred up our way when Martin left, is taking his mandatory redshirt year, which leaves 12 eligible guys. This means some hard decisions; Tony prefers a rotation of about nine or ten, and that tenth guy tends to get squeezed out as the season goes on. He also prefers to put off redshirt decisions (or at least, put off telling us about them) to the last minute, so this preview is going to speak of all four freshman as if they'll play, but with the understanding that maybe two of them actually will.
And as always, you're going to have to wait til later to get the whole thing. First half today.
#0 - Devon Hall - rFr. PG
One newcomer we know for sure about though: Devon Hall will be on the court. This is the kinda cool thing about establishing a pattern of redshirting incoming freshmen, which by the way is awfully rare in basketball. You get your new wave of freshmen, but you also get an infusion of brand-new talent who knows the ropes a little bit.
This team is quickly becoming the property of London Perrantes, who came in as the surprise second point guard after Hall looked like the handpicked one. Perrantes made himself damn well indispensible last year while Hall sat. But there's an obvious role for Hall now, and interestingly it's mainly to do with losing Harris.
Ever since Malcolm Brogdon set foot on the court, the deal with him has been, "ok, he can run the point, but how can we find a way for him not to?" With Harris gone, Brogdon has to shoulder the lead scorer's role. Simply put, Brogdon is going to be the go-to guy, a role which he started to ease into last year (how about that shot at Pitt?) and which he'll be better at if he's not concerned with playing backup point. While Bennett doesn't make it a point to have a dedicated, rigidly-defined point guard, the ideal situation is if Hall's and Perrantes's minutes percentages add up to just about 100.
The scouting report on Hall was that he was very much a pass-first point guard. I wonder how well that's stood up over time. Hall will basically be backing up Perrantes, which means he'll see a lot of time playing with and against second units. It's one thing to look to set up your teammates if you're looking inside to Anthony Gill or outside to Brogdon. It might be different if you have less of a scoring contingent on the floor and are facing off against other second-stringers. I don't know that I have a lot of concrete reason to say this, but I think Hall will be encouraged to find his shot. He's going to have a big size advantage against most other 1's that defend him, and he won't give up much in the quickness department. It's always interesting when you put the offense in the hands of someone new, but if Hall can be a scoring punch off the bench, UVA's depth would be really scary. Doesn't have to be much. A steady four, five points a game would do it. UVA's backcourt is fairly young this year, so a good-sized contribution from Hall is more important than it might seem.
#1 - Justin Anderson - Jr. SF
Winning makes UVA basketball fun to watch. Justin Anderson makes it entertaining. Anderson is always described as wildly athletic, and he can definitely jump.... but, truth is, he's not jumping out of the gym nor flying out of his shoes. Anderson is blessed with incredible body control that lets him pull off ridiculous moves that you swear he ripped off of Cirque du Soleil, resulting in highlight-reel blocks, saves, steals, passes, and dunks. And he plays with an infectious enthusiasm and a Cheshire cat grin.
Anderson basically does everything pretty well. Even his shot-blocking, while flashy, isn't all the way up the stat charts. He's simply not always in position to do it, because he's not usually a post defender, and most of his blocks come on breakaways or when he or a teammate is otherwise beat. Besides that body control, Anderson has an impeccable sense of timing, and a wily ability to bait the opponent into thinking he has a free 'n' clear layup.
He also is a very good passer, a more than adequate and very versatile halfcourt defender, and his two-point shooting percentage was third-best on the team last year (among players who shot enough for a reasonable sample size), largely because he dunks the ball a hell of a lot. Tremendously efficient shot, the slam dunk. He rebounds some, shoots a respectable free throw, and generally does a little bit of everything.
Thing is though - now that he's an upperclassman, more is going to be expected than simply doing most things pretty well. He still could stand to improve his three-point shot, which was at best streaky last year and not too reliable. He's got to take some part of his game - any part of his game, it really doesn't even matter - up a level or two. Lockdown defender, star rebounder, improved scoring touch - whatever it is, it'll help. Basketball teams are fluid things that need a little time to find an identity, and this one can morph its roles to match what Anderson does, as long as he brings something new. Nobody's quite sure if Anderson is ready for a full-time starting role - he looked awfully good coming off the bench, to the extent of being named the media's choice for ACC 6th-man of the year. But if he doesn't move into the starting lineup, we're even less sure who would.
#2 - B.J. Stith - Fr. SG
Over three years ago - that's how long ago B.J. Stith committed to UVA. Remember the Peach Bowl, how long ago that seems? Now go back almost four more months. The hoops team featured Sammy Zeglinski and Assane Sene. And Malcolm Brogdon as a freshman, and jeez he's only a junior now with all his best basketball in front of him and now you know why his teammates like to call him an old-ass man.
So it'd be the apex of cruel irony to make UVA fans wait another year to see a Stith suit up again for the Hoos. I think Stith is among the more likely freshmen to have a role, though. When Brogdon comes off the court, there isn't really a backup two guard. Used to be you could have Harris do that; he could flex easily between the two and three. I don't think you have that kind of player this year, at least, not one that's easily evident; Anderson's not enough of a shooter. Playing Stith would give us a great shot at having a four-man rotation in the backcourt that can score with whatever combo is on the floor.
That's the rationale for playing him. For redshirting him? Defense. Nobody ever really knows until the tipoff exactly what Tony is thinking in terms of defense, but Stith's main competition for playing time is Marial Shayok, who by most accounts is the superior defender, and good enough to earn his way onto the court. If I were handicapping things, I'd tip things ever so slightly in favor of Shayok, which pushes Stith into a redshirt role if he's OK with it. Tony won't redshirt someone who doesn't want to, but won't go out of his way to put him into games, either. Stith has a good head on his shoulders and a dad who won't let him screw himself up, so I'll put in a SWAG here and say Stith redshirts.
#4 - Marial Shayok - Fr. SG
Marquette's loss was the state of Virginia's gain; when Buzz Williams bolted for VT, he took a fair amount of his recruiting class with him, but one of his charges found his way to Charlottesville instead. Shayok definitely adds to the diversity of the team - he's a Sudanese-Canadian, and comes from a basketball family.
He's listed at almost the exact same size as Stith - 6'5", 207 vs. 205 - but there's a clear positional difference. Stith is a shooting guard, full stop. Shayok has more versatility, having played everything from the 1 through the 5 in high school. Despite the size similarities, Shayok is basically more of a three who might grow into a four... but could play some two right now. He has a chance to be that guy who can flex between positions. That, along with his reported quick study on defense, has him in line to get on the court early.
That's a lot to ask for a freshman, true. But when's the last time you saw Tony put an unprepared player on the court? (Hint: No.) Shayok's calling card when he came in was his versatility; I think if he's in the rotation more than a few minutes here and there, that in itself is proof of his ability to guard multiple positions.
#5 - Darion Atkins - Sr. PF
Only one senior on the team this year, and here he is. I don't want to say Atkins had a disappointing season last year, but he did end up in the back end of the rotation. (I do not think it's an attitude problem, as some do suggest; Atkins projects that image with his facial expressions, but - that's just sort of how he looks, all the time.) His peak so far has been the beginning of his sophomore year when he and Mitchell were forming an eye-opening combo of tremendously athletic power forwards that gave teams absolute fits trying to score on them.
Unfortunately, Atkins developed shin splints, which, even when he did play, robbed him of that bounciness, and he looked crushingly average the rest of the way. Last year, he got overtaken, mostly by Anthony Gill, who proved the far superior scorer and a good enough defender.
Now, though, there's no Mitchell. He'll be the hardest player to replace too, no offense to Harris. Mitchell quarterbacked the defense and was never out of position. Atkins probably won't start many games, if at all, and isn't a huge scoring threat. He probably trusts his hook shot a little too much. All the same, helping to replace Mitchell is exactly what he needs to do. Atkins has it in him to be a very good shotblocker, and his offensive rebounding didn't get enough credit last year. If he can carry that over to consistent double-digit minutes every game, he'll be giving us exactly what we need out of him.
#10 - Mike Tobey - Jr. C
Speaking of guys who need to step up. This is a big, big year for Tobey. It would be really unfair to say he's underperformed, but he's also been quite a tease. His game isn't inconsistent. It's just that when he's scoring, he looks smooth and skilled for a big man; when he's not, the same game looks soft and unassertive. It's easy to forget - he's young for his age, to coin a Yogi Berra-ism, and his development is pretty much exactly how it should be. In many respects he's been the victim of his own expectations.
Doesn't let him off the hook to keep on developing, though. 10 points a game is not too much to ask, and it'd be great news for our offense: a consistent scoring source that wasn't there last year. Malcolm Brogdon told ESPN's Andy Katz that the team is going to look inside more, and that's basically code for getting more out of Tobey than 6.4 ppg.
This is doable. Not only does Tobey have very good range for a big, and isn't a hopeless mess at the line like many bigs, his offensive rebounding last year was just shy of elite. He takes care of the ball well, and is also the team's best shot-blocker. He was a starter last year, but was only seventh in minutes; I don't at all expect that to be the case this year. Just getting him on the court for eight more minutes a game will boost his numbers and his impact. Keep him on the development curve at the same time and he's got a chance to open a lot of eyes in the ACC this year.
**********************************************
Game preview as normal tomorrow, and then special weekend-ish continuations of the hoops season preview. Touch not the dial.
Wednesday, April 23, 2014
the recruit: Marial Shayok
Name: Marial Shayok
Position: SF
Hometown: Ottawa, ON
School: Blair Academy (NJ)
Height: 6'7"
Weight: 205
24/7: 89, three stars; #30 SG, NJ #4, US #119
ESPN: 79, three stars; #33 SF, NJ #2
Rivals: three stars
Scout: three stars
Other offers: Marquette, Michigan, Indiana, Boston College, Cincinnati, Minnesota, Providence, Seton Hall, Georgia, La Salle, Rutgers
Marquette fans must be hating the state of Virginia right now. Their coach departed for VT and took two of their four-man recruiting class with him (and those two instantly became far and away the top two players in VT's incoming class), and UVa became the beneficiary of that choice as well just last night when Marial Shayok flipped to Tony Bennett.
Shayok was a player UVa had pursued heavily last year, in the normal recruiting cycle for 2014 players, and the Hoos essentially finished as the runner-up, so they were a natural contender when Shayok got his release from Marquette. UVa already had commitments from all three of the other class members when Shayok committed to Marquette, so this is something they'd've done even without the news of Teven Jones transferring; Shayok was a guy they wanted, period.
Quite a few other folks did, too. The actual complement of Shayok's offer list is fuzzy; various credible sources list schools like Kansas State, Villanova, St. Louis, without any backup from one another; the ones above have multiple sources. After Shayok's decommitment from Marquette, UVa's competition came from Michigan and Indiana mainly (as well as Marquette again) but UVa seems to be the only place he seriously looked.
A native Canadian, Shayok played his junior and senior years of high school ball at Blair Academy in New Jersey, a noted talent magnet. Several of his teammates are also headed to D-I schools, either this summer or in the future, and the place is also known for producing NBAers Luol Deng and Charlie Villanueva - and UVa center Mike Tobey. Shayok arrived there too late to be a teammate of his, though.
At Blair, Shayok was asked to play a huge variety of roles, and he prides himself on his versatility. He probably won't be playing a lot of point guard at UVa, but he can do most things you ask of a wing and a stretch four. His shooting is usually mentioned as a weak point of his game, but various descriptions of his strengths combine to give the impression of a player who thrives on constant motion, whether with or without the ball. He's got that wingspan that coaches are real big on - it's been talked about as anywhere from seven feet to seven-two - and ESPN calls him a college-ready defender right now and others say his potential as a defender is almost limitless. You can guess what Tony Bennett likes about him.
It's Shayok's versatility - and his bloodline - that make him difficult to project. If you ever watched Michigan this year (I might have caught a game or two) and saw Glenn Robinson III play, that's the best comparison I can think of; Robinson only ever knocked down a three if it was wide open, but he could do remarkable things with the ball, was an outstanding finisher, and was asked to guard positions two through four (though he wasn't especially suited to the latter.) Shayok sounds much like a poor man's Robinson in terms of athleticism and abilities on offense, and better on defense.
He's also coming from a basketball-playing family, the respective sizes of which lead some to believe he's not finished growing and could fill out into a true four. Right now he's a big shooting guard, or a biggish wing, or a skinny-as-hell power forward, but another couple inches and 20-25 pounds (he'll probably put on the weight regardless) and he'll look an awful lot like Akil Mitchell.
Right now we'll call him a three, as he draws a few comparisons to Justin Anderson as well. However, it's become clear that versatility is one of Tony Bennett's priorities. I think this is only partly a system thing - that is, an on-court system thing. I think Tony looks for players who don't fit a positional mold, because really talented players who do fit tend to be fought over by the big-name programs. Tweeners often get looked at for what they can't do, so a smart guy like Tony figures he'll take them for what they can do and mix and match the combos to cover for the things they can't. Thus you end up with our roster, which has a bunch of guys more aptly described as 1.5s (Brogdon), 2.5s (Harris), and 3.5s (Nolte) rather than 1s, 2s, and 3s. Well, that's Shayok, too; whether he's a 2.5 or a 3.5 will depend on where his growth settles down.
This season, there'll now be an even fiercer competition for court time; Shayok is going to join Devon Hall and B.J. Stith as new contenders for Joe Harris's minutes, with Justin Anderson in the mix for more of a role as well and Malcolm Brogdon and London Perrantes already looming as 30-minute players. The freshman class got fat all of a sudden, with the late addition and Hall's redshirt; there are now five each in the freshman and junior classes, which presents a recruiting challenge down the road. There are two 2014 players - Devonte Graham and Sviatoslav Mikhailiuk - that Tony is in hot pursuit of, not really caring that it'll create a six-man class again, but if neither goes with UVa then it leaves two spots in the 2015 class. Tony would likely try and fill both if for no other reason than to try and spread things out. The hot competition for minutes might well mean a redshirt for someone, too, and by the way there's no reason it necessarily won't be Shayok. You know how things are with Tony: it depends on how you defend. In any case, though, it ought to be a really interesting subplot for next year's preseason.
Position: SF
Hometown: Ottawa, ON
School: Blair Academy (NJ)
Height: 6'7"
Weight: 205
24/7: 89, three stars; #30 SG, NJ #4, US #119
ESPN: 79, three stars; #33 SF, NJ #2
Rivals: three stars
Scout: three stars
Other offers: Marquette, Michigan, Indiana, Boston College, Cincinnati, Minnesota, Providence, Seton Hall, Georgia, La Salle, Rutgers
Marquette fans must be hating the state of Virginia right now. Their coach departed for VT and took two of their four-man recruiting class with him (and those two instantly became far and away the top two players in VT's incoming class), and UVa became the beneficiary of that choice as well just last night when Marial Shayok flipped to Tony Bennett.
Shayok was a player UVa had pursued heavily last year, in the normal recruiting cycle for 2014 players, and the Hoos essentially finished as the runner-up, so they were a natural contender when Shayok got his release from Marquette. UVa already had commitments from all three of the other class members when Shayok committed to Marquette, so this is something they'd've done even without the news of Teven Jones transferring; Shayok was a guy they wanted, period.
Quite a few other folks did, too. The actual complement of Shayok's offer list is fuzzy; various credible sources list schools like Kansas State, Villanova, St. Louis, without any backup from one another; the ones above have multiple sources. After Shayok's decommitment from Marquette, UVa's competition came from Michigan and Indiana mainly (as well as Marquette again) but UVa seems to be the only place he seriously looked.
A native Canadian, Shayok played his junior and senior years of high school ball at Blair Academy in New Jersey, a noted talent magnet. Several of his teammates are also headed to D-I schools, either this summer or in the future, and the place is also known for producing NBAers Luol Deng and Charlie Villanueva - and UVa center Mike Tobey. Shayok arrived there too late to be a teammate of his, though.
At Blair, Shayok was asked to play a huge variety of roles, and he prides himself on his versatility. He probably won't be playing a lot of point guard at UVa, but he can do most things you ask of a wing and a stretch four. His shooting is usually mentioned as a weak point of his game, but various descriptions of his strengths combine to give the impression of a player who thrives on constant motion, whether with or without the ball. He's got that wingspan that coaches are real big on - it's been talked about as anywhere from seven feet to seven-two - and ESPN calls him a college-ready defender right now and others say his potential as a defender is almost limitless. You can guess what Tony Bennett likes about him.
It's Shayok's versatility - and his bloodline - that make him difficult to project. If you ever watched Michigan this year (I might have caught a game or two) and saw Glenn Robinson III play, that's the best comparison I can think of; Robinson only ever knocked down a three if it was wide open, but he could do remarkable things with the ball, was an outstanding finisher, and was asked to guard positions two through four (though he wasn't especially suited to the latter.) Shayok sounds much like a poor man's Robinson in terms of athleticism and abilities on offense, and better on defense.
He's also coming from a basketball-playing family, the respective sizes of which lead some to believe he's not finished growing and could fill out into a true four. Right now he's a big shooting guard, or a biggish wing, or a skinny-as-hell power forward, but another couple inches and 20-25 pounds (he'll probably put on the weight regardless) and he'll look an awful lot like Akil Mitchell.
Right now we'll call him a three, as he draws a few comparisons to Justin Anderson as well. However, it's become clear that versatility is one of Tony Bennett's priorities. I think this is only partly a system thing - that is, an on-court system thing. I think Tony looks for players who don't fit a positional mold, because really talented players who do fit tend to be fought over by the big-name programs. Tweeners often get looked at for what they can't do, so a smart guy like Tony figures he'll take them for what they can do and mix and match the combos to cover for the things they can't. Thus you end up with our roster, which has a bunch of guys more aptly described as 1.5s (Brogdon), 2.5s (Harris), and 3.5s (Nolte) rather than 1s, 2s, and 3s. Well, that's Shayok, too; whether he's a 2.5 or a 3.5 will depend on where his growth settles down.
This season, there'll now be an even fiercer competition for court time; Shayok is going to join Devon Hall and B.J. Stith as new contenders for Joe Harris's minutes, with Justin Anderson in the mix for more of a role as well and Malcolm Brogdon and London Perrantes already looming as 30-minute players. The freshman class got fat all of a sudden, with the late addition and Hall's redshirt; there are now five each in the freshman and junior classes, which presents a recruiting challenge down the road. There are two 2014 players - Devonte Graham and Sviatoslav Mikhailiuk - that Tony is in hot pursuit of, not really caring that it'll create a six-man class again, but if neither goes with UVa then it leaves two spots in the 2015 class. Tony would likely try and fill both if for no other reason than to try and spread things out. The hot competition for minutes might well mean a redshirt for someone, too, and by the way there's no reason it necessarily won't be Shayok. You know how things are with Tony: it depends on how you defend. In any case, though, it ought to be a really interesting subplot for next year's preseason.
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