game preview: Arkansas

Date/Time: Saturday, June 13; 3:00

TV: ESPN

Record against the Hogs: 2-1

Last meeting: UVA 9, UA 2; 6/1/14, Charlottesville (NCAA Regional)

Last weekend: UVA 2-0 over Maryland (5-3, 5-4); UA 2-1 over Mo. St. (18-4, 1-3, 3-2)

Pitching probables:

Virginia: RHP Connor Jones (7-2, 2.95, 105 Ks)
Arkansas: RHP Trey Killian (3-4, 4.74, 56 Ks)

Familiarity, again.  Seems to happen a lot on our roads to Omaha.  UVA played the rude host to Arkansas last year, beating the regional 2 seed twice to polish off a three-game regional sweep.  The stage is bigger now.  UVA must try to battle it out in Omaha against a whole bunch of teams that come much more highly recommended on paper.

It's tempting to draw parallels to Fresno State, the regional four seed that upended the whole tournament and walked out of Omaha as national champs.  Baseball certainly lends itself to that kind of tournament run.  Still, at this point, that's getting ahead of ourselves.  Fresno State had already beaten two regional 1 seeds by this time, and finished up the tourney having beaten literally half the eight national seeds and personally eliminated three of them.  UVA hasn't yet faced a regional 1 seed, and still won't have after this game.  (Miami and Florida, the other teams in the "regional", are both national seeds, so that streak comes to an end in game 2 no matter what.)

UVA faces an Arkansas team struggling, if this is is possible, even more with pitching depth than the Hoos are.  Trey Killian almost certainly gets the ball on Saturday, and those depth issues likely won't hurt the Hogs much yet in game 1, but they recently announced the loss of a mainstay reliever, and they also lost a rotation pitcher during the SEC tournament.  (Dominic Taccolini, who did a very solid job pitching in relief of Killian during last year's first matchup against Arkansas.)

Meanwhile, the Hoos are headed in the other direction.  Nathan Kirby is expected to return to the mound in Omaha.  When, only the coaching staff can say, but at some point, he'll come trotting out of the bullpen.  Given the extra days of rest between games, this is a huge, huge addition, basically giving UVA just about all the depth it needs.  He and Josh Sborz were the gems of their recruiting class and the first two Hoos taken in this year's MLB draft (Brewers and Dodgers, in case you were wondering) - it's a little strange that they're being used as bullpen aces rather than innings-eating starters.

Speaking of starters, Connor Jones will go for UVA.  You know the drill.  Said it before and I'll say it again: as long as Jones and Brandon Waddell are shutting down hitters and pitching deep into games, UVA will keep advancing.  The moment one of them falters, it's the beginning of the end.  Here's the lineup the Razorbacks will send to the plate to face CJ:

-- Catcher: Tucker Pennell (.200-0-7): The light-hitting juco transfer Pennell anchors the ninth spot in the lineup.  With an OPS of just .508, he's neither proficient at getting on base nor a power hitter of any kind.  That means he's probably going to do something totally heroic at some point in this tournament.

-- First base: Clark Eagan (.284-2-30): There's a mashup of solid but unremarkable hitters occupying the 5 through 8 slots in the Arkansas lineup; Eagan is one, having batted both fifth and eighth during the postseason run.  He was a platooning DH last year, but starts regularly at first and boasts a pretty good glove.

-- Second base: Rick Nomura (.294-4-19): Nomura is another back-half player, a hitter who prefers to make contact rather than wait for something to happen; his walks and K's total just 42 all year.  This places him generally fifth or sixth in the order.  He's also an excellent fielder.

-- Third base: Bobby Wernes (.280-5-26):  One of four Arkansas juniors taken in the draft (30th round), Wernes bats second and showed a huge improvement over his numbers from last year, when he barely hit.  This year his bat has some pop, as he's third on the team among eligible players in slugging - 11 of his 63 hits went for more than two bases, a number second only to superstar Andrew Benintendi.

-- Shortstop: Michael Bernal (.280-4-30): Bernal's numbers are a slight oddity; four homers and only five doubles.  Really, he's not a particularly powerful bat, but you can do much worse than to have a .280 hitter in the 7th or 8th slot.  He does have a good batting eye: despite being only seventh among eligible players in batting average, he's second in OBP.  (Partly due to getting plunked a lot, too.)

-- Left field: Joe Serrano (.285-4-35): No, not Pedro.  Leadoff hitter who's also proficient at taking a walk, but also strikes out a bit more than a leadoff hitter should.

-- Center field: Andrew Benintendi (.380-19-55).  The 7th overall pick in the MLB draft, there's not much Benintendi doesn't do.  His OPS isn't a perfectly normal .715 - he slugs .715, with an OPS of 1.204.  His chances of getting on base are almost 1-in-2, and between his extra base hits and his 23 steals, he's got roughly a 1-in-5 chance of getting himself at least to second base every time he steps to the plate.  By far the toughest hitter UVA has faced this postseason.

-- Right field: Tyler Spoon (.331-6-54): As the cleanup hitter, Spoon has the job of protecting Benintendi in the lineup, and does just fine at that.  He's the team leader in doubles and slugs .500 himself.  He doesn't walk much, but it's not his job to.  Spoon is also one of the Hogs' four draftees, going in the 35th round.

-- Designated hitter: Brett McAfee (.280-2-22): McAfee was the starting shortstop for about a month last year before he went down with an injury; he's seen time there this year as well, but settled into the DH job lately.  Sixth or seventh batter and another one of those decent hitters whose numbers don't stink but don't jump off any pages.

-- Starting pitcher: Trey Killian (3-4, 4.74, 56 Ks): Killian has a wide array of different pitches - fastball, cutter, change, slider, curve - and it's the potential to develop at least some of them into major-league stuff that got him drafted pretty high.  That and his excellent sophomore year.  Not so much his junior-year numbers.  Killian battled tendonitis early in the season and hasn't really ever rounded into form.  But he's pitched on Friday most of the year, and with Taccolini out and Keaton McKinney having hip troubles, Killian is really the only healthy starter.  UVA knocked Killian off the bump early in last year's matchup against him; those numbers offer plenty of hope they can do it again.

-- Bullpen: Despite losing James Teague to an elbow injury, Arkansas has plenty of options here; it's their rotation, not their pen, having the major depth issues.  (Teague also started 10 games this year, and probably would've been high on the consideration list to start a game sometime in Omaha.)  Zach Jackson - with 87 Ks in 56.1 innings and a .185 OBA - is used as something of a super-reliever much as Sborz is, and is probably the first off the bench if Killian gets into trouble.  Jackson Lowery is a bit wild at times but a solid option, though he may be held back to start a game himself.  Lance Phillips and Josh Alberius are also dependable options for a couple innings.  One thing about the Arkansas pitching options: they're totally bereft of left-handers, except for a couple players who won't be used.  Every Razorback who takes the hill in Omaha will be a righty.

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On paper, Arkansas isn't too scary.  (Neither is UVA, but at least we'll be starting an ace with ace numbers.  On the other hand, four of nine lineup hitters are hitting .252 or worse.)  Arkansas isn't too different from USC.  Pretty good lineup - two stars, one guy with barely any bat at all, and six solid regular dudes.  Killian's numbers, though, might be the worst of any starter in Omaha in recent memory.  He's clearly a better pitcher than his stats, but sometimes that's a thing for next year, not right now.

Benintendi will probably get his hits, but whether he does or doesn't, it's mainly the rest of the lineup that'll win or lose this game for Connor Jones.  If he can mow the rest of them down, UVA will win - possibly by a lot.  If the bottom half of the lineup starts dinging him, UVA might find itself on a track to go 0-for-Nebraska.

You can bet, though, that Arkansas won't let Killian dig too deep a hole, if things start going south.  I expect a quick hook.  If UVA's bats start off lively, Arkansas will ask Zach Jackson to hold down the fort while they try and repair the damage.  A big win will require the bats to stay hot against the bullpen.  Ultimately, though, UVA should be favored.  Joe McCarthy has been heating up after an understandably slow start, and UVA has, if nothing else, been the tourney's most clutch-hitting team.  The Hoos have won five games - and been losing to start the 7th inning in all but one (and that was a 1-1 tie.)  With Omaha's ballpark encouraging low-scoring games, that not only gives UVA a chance to build on their clutch reputation, but levels the playing field for a team like ours with a thin bullpen - starters can go deeper into games.  Game 2 will feature a stronger opponent than UVA has yet faced this postseason, but I really like UVA's chances to get there on the winning side of the bracket.

underneath a rock

That's where this comes to you from, if I had my way about it.  This will probably be short, which you don't deserve after two days of radio silence caused by me hanging on to the CWS finals and neurotically pausing the DVR for like 30 minutes at a time, racing forward, racing backward, and generally watching the games in a way totally unenvisioned by live TV viewers of 15 years ago.

It'll be short because I've never wanted to write anything less in my life**, and because my usual style is useless here.  Simply put, I haven't been so stung by a loss since the '09 Stanley Cup Finals, and that one sapped all hockey interest from me for months.  It lasted almost to the next year's playoffs.

It's the knowledge that it is incredibly damn hard to get back to this spot.  That's what haunted me then and that's what haunts me now.  And this: this was a team that absolutely deserved to win a national championship.  So much resilience, so many gritty performances, gone to waste for the want of any one of a thousand things that all went the wrong way.  And that's stinger #3 - knowing that UVa played so well that you could literally change just one event in either of two games and today would be a celebration.

Fact is, UVa generated five times the opportunities that Vanderbilt did.  And Vanderbilt cashed in on 100% of the chances they had, which makes all the difference when you only convert about 25% of your own - and makes it sting knowing you could've won by converting 26%.

Everybody hates hearing the losers say, "the better team lost," and especially anything about the officiating, but it's just so damn hard not to sometimes.  All it took to lose this series was one inning from hell, two rinky-dink garbage runs, and a well-timed towering blast.  Win 3/4 of the battles, lose the war.

And, by the way, no help from the umpires.  When you complain about the umpires, people usually jump in and say, "that's not why we lost," proceed to lament missed opportunities, and the argument goes on as if the two positions are mutually exclusive.  They're not.  Yes, not scoring on uncountable RISP opportunities is pretty much the reason for all this - that doesn't make the umpires suddenly good.  I don't have the stomach or patience for this kind of exercise - at least not right now - but it wouldn't be hard to put together a video of the apparently octopus-shaped strike zone from home plate blue last night.  Josh Sborz left after one inning in large part because he didn't get the shin-high, three-foot-wide strike zone that Carson Fulmer did.  And then the zone got even less consistent as time went on.  Did you notice ESPN's "K Zone" at all from about the 6th inning onward?  You did not.  And - I'm aware of the "transfer rule" but that was one of the most egregiously bad applications of it that ever existed.  Had Derek Fisher been called safe - well, you always have to be careful about declaring what would've happened afterwards, because then some coach or pitcher or someone would've made a different decision.  But the sequence that followed - a balk and a hit - at least makes it more likely that you can say it made a difference.  The announcers were unanimous in calling that a huge break.

I know we'll have most of this pitching staff back next year, but seriously - it's gonna take a little while before I care.  This team is the one that got away.  There's only one thing that can fix this - you know what that is, but it's a fan luxury to just be able to reset every year and hope for it.  There's a few pro careers beginning soon for guys that missed their one chance.

**Though I've also rarely felt so obligated.

series preview: Vanderbilt

Date/Time: Mon-Wed, June 23-25; all games 8:00
(Wednesday game if necessary)

TV: All games on ESPN

Record against the Dores: 0-2

Last meeting: Vandy 7, UVa 3; 6/6/04, Charlottesville (NCAA Regional)

Last game: UVa 4, Ole Miss 1 (6/21); Vandy 4, UT 3 (6/21)

Pitching probables:

Monday:
LHP Nathan Kirby (9-2, 1.70, 108 Ks) vs. RHP Tyler Beede (8-7, 3.80, 112 Ks)

Tuesday:
LHP Brandon Waddell (9-3, 2.57, 68 Ks) vs. RHP Walker Buehler (12-2, 2.27, 109 Ks)

(Again, these are guesses, at least for the Vandy side, based partly on a little by-the-book guesswork and partly on what Vandy fans think.  No doubt whatsoever who'll go for UVa, really.  As for Wednesday, I'm just not gonna try, especially on our side.  I suspect Josh Sborz was pulled earlyish from the Saturday game at least partly with an eye on having him ready for Wednesday.  Besides, if there's a game Wednesday it's literally the ultimate in do-or-die games, and Johnny Wholestaff will be at the ready.)

At this point in a season, there's nothing left to be said, but you know me, I'm gonna say it anyway.  (It's not like anyone else shuts their flaps.)  This is an interesting matchup, and one of my favorite kinds: someone is going home with their first-ever national title.  (In this sport.)  Neither team has ever even made the finals.  Vanderbilt takes it even further: they don't quite have the full VT goose egg, but their lone national title is a women's bowling championship in 2007.  This is really their chance to win a championship in front of an audience.  If it had been Texas, UVa would no doubt be the national rooting interest.

On the other hand, UVa is carrying the flag for the ACC, which, as we'll be reminded dozens of times in the next couple days, hasn't won a baseball title since 1955, nor even does the conference regularly place someone in the finals.  People wanting to see the SEC fall on their faces - and that's a long list of folks - will still be pulling for the Hoos.

Vandy's road here had just a couple bumps in it; Texas staved off elimination at the end of the double-elimination round of the CWS, and Stanford scraped a 5-4 win over the Commodores in the super-regionals.  Vandy, however, has never faced a national seed along the way; none of them on that side of the bracket made it to Omaha, and Stanford had beaten 4-seeded Indiana to get to the supers.  In fact, other than Louisville, whom Vanderbilt beat in their CWS opener, the Dores haven't even faced a regional 1 seed.  UVa, on the other hand, was spared South Carolina but had to go through Ole Miss twice, plus national 7 seed TCU, to get here.  It puts UVa's pitching dominance in solid perspective.

Ordinarily I talk about the stakes here, but, um, if you need to be told that then I can't help you.  It's scouting report time.

-- First base: Zander Wiel (.270-5-43).  Cleanup hitter even through mid-postseason lineup shuffle.  Solid tools all around - decent power, speed, and glove.  Team leader in homers and second in triples; also has 30 walks.  Not a hugely fearsome hitter but a bat that must be respected.

-- Second base: Dansby Swanson (.337-3-34).  Leadoff hitter and perhaps the team's best batsman; team OPS leader at .898 and OBP leader at .413.  20 stolen bases in 25 attempts, both tops on a very, very aggressive Vanderbilt team.

-- Third base: Tyler Campbell (.217-0-3).  Likely to bat ninth; Campbell is a very late replacement for regular third baseman Xavier Turner (.284-2-38), who was declared ineligible (whether by Vandy or the NCAA isn't known) and sent home.  Turner was a reliable bat and an outstanding fielder; Campbell is a sophomore who's been a reserve all his career, and his glove is at best unknown.  He was hitting .132 coming into the Texas game where he was tossed into the fire, but went 2-for-3 on Friday and drove in the game-winning run in the 10th inning on Saturday.

-- Shortstop: Vince Conde (.294-4-48).  #3 hitter; tough out with more walks (40) than K's (37). Tremendous fielder at .984 FP with only four errors all season.  9th-round pick of the Yankees this year.

-- Left field: Bryan Reynolds (.341-4-53).  #2 hitter.  Among the best hitters in the Vandy lineup along with Swanson and Conde.  Team leader in BA, RBI, hits, and second in doubles.  Switch hitter and one of the top freshmen in the SEC.

-- Center field: John Norwood (.288-2-29).  Had been batting 6th or 7th; moved up to 5th with the loss of Turner from the lineup.  Junior who just moved into the starting lineup this year and therefore went undrafted.  Hits for some contact, but not a great deal of power, and strikes out often.

-- Right field: Rhett Wiseman (.283-0-29).  Bats sixth.  Has decent line-drive power and leads the team in triples, but is only one of two of the eight regular position players (including Turner, not Campbell) not to have hit a home run.  Also lowest OBP (.352) of the eight.

-- Catcher: Jason Delay (.257-0-13).  Will probably bat 7th or 8th.  Relatively light-hitting freshman.  Has nine doubles out of only 28 hits, but whiffs with great frequency.  Occasionally gives way to fellow freshman Karl Ellison (.203-0-9), an even lighter-hitting player than Delay.

-- Designated hitter: Nolan Rogers (.204-0-14).  The DH spot will be 7th or 8th unless Campbell is rewarded for his play against UT with a move up from ninth.  Vandy doesn't have much in the way of options here.  Rogers is a freshman who hasn't hit much all year.  He's a lefty, so Vandy may opt for the switch-hitting Ro Coleman (.214-1-13) instead, against UVa's lefty starters.  Vanderbilt's coach Tim Corbin likes to start a pitcher in the DH slot and then pinch-hit for him in the first at-bat; why he does this, I can't figure out.  Perhaps to remove the temptation of using that pitcher in the game, as it's often the previous game's pitcher.

-- Pitching staff:


RHP Tyler Beede (8-7, 3.80, 112 Ks).  Beede has great stuff and three plus pitches, which got him drafted 14th overall by the Giants this spring.  However, control issues have dogged him throughout his career.  Vandy fans speak of their hope that "Good Beede" shows up on the mound.  His Irvine appearance might have been every one of his outings wrapped into one; he went 3.2 innings, struck out four, walked three, and threw two wild pitches.  His talent is undeniable, as he's one of only 18 players in MLB Draft history to be taken in the first round of two different drafts.  Vandy might be in trouble, though, if Beede doesn't bring any control to the mound.

RHP Walker Buehler (12-2, 2.27, 109 Ks).  Buehler is a lanky right-hander with a fastball that's not quite "blazing", but close, and a really sharp slider.  He turned down the Pittsburgh Pirates as a 14th-round pick out of high school to go to Vandy.  Purely from a stats standpoint, Buehler is the best of the staff; he has 2 complete games, a 3.5/1 K/BB ratio, and a .218 OpBA.  In his previous CWS appearance, he came on in relief of Tyler Beede after Beede got in trouble against UC-Irvine, and pitched 5.1 innings of no-hit ball against the Anteaters while the Vandy bats repaired the damage Irvine had caused.  Buehler had needed rescuing himself in the supers, though, as a troublesome third inning against Stanford knocked him out of the game and nearly erased the 5-run lead he'd been staked to.  He's not totally unhittable, but he does represent a challenge for the UVa hitters.

RHP Tyler Ferguson (8-4, 2.72, 63 Ks).  If the series goes to Wednesday, and if things go according to plan for Vandy, Ferguson might be the starter for the Commodores.  Circumstances always seem to get in the way, so that's no guarantee, but that's how things might go.  Ferguson is another power pitcher and talented enough that Aaron Fitt called him a potential first-rounder next year, but his only CWS appearance was a mess.  He plunked the Texas leadoff hitter with his first pitch of the game, and proceeded to walk and plunk the bases loaded.  Texas ended up with two runs and Ferguson didn't survive the inning.  Ferguson would be fresh and available out of the pen should that become necessary, and it's probably a good thing if so - it would likely mean UVa has had success against the Vandy starter.

RHP Carson Fulmer (7-1, 2.00, 90 Ks).  Fulmer has been the closer most of the year, and a very effective one, but has been earning starts in the postseason.  Likely unavailable out of the pen on Monday and Tuesday after going 4 1/3 on Saturday night, Fulmer would be another candidate for a Wednesday start.  In this case he'd be going on awfully short rest and would likely be limited to four or so innings.  Is a pitcher in a similar mold as the others; power fastball, good slider.

-- Bullpen: Two more pitchers who are likely burned up for Monday and Tuesday are righties Brian Miller (1-1, 1.93, 37 Ks) and Hayden Stone (3-0, 1.76, 76 Ks).  Miller was the guy who relieved Ferguson against Texas, and threw the whole rest of the game - 7 1/3 innings, after averaging less than 1 1/3 per appearance on the season.  He's not likely to be available except perhaps in a Wednesday desperation situation.  Stone went 5 2/3 on Saturday night, and the same applies.

That leaves Vandy with limited options.  RHP Adam Ravenelle (3-2, 1.46, 35 Ks) is easily the #1 choice.  Ravenelle sports a .154 OpBA, and has good enough stuff that despite a limited history (largely due to some 2012 elbow trouble) he was a 4th-round pick of the bullpen-starved Tigers.  Other options may be southpaw Jared Miller (6-2, 4.20, 45 Ks), an 11th-round pick of the Diamondbacks despite crashing to earth somewhat as the season wore on; or fellow lefty John Kilichowski (0-0, 1.35, 20 Ks).  Neither has appeared in the CWS, though, and it's just as likely that if Vandy gets into trouble, they turn to a guy they'd hoped to start.

-- Synopsis: Vanderbilt's best chance is their starting pitching.  Beede and Buehler, when on, could be just as tough a nut to crack as UVa's starting two of Kirby and Waddell.  As well, the top of Vandy's lineup is no picnic.  Swanson and Reynolds are excellent hitters.

That said, the Vandy lineup is really no better than what Ole Miss sent to the plate, either, and it's not as deep, especially without Xavier Turner.  The bottom third is pretty weak and there's nothing off the bench.  UVa might not have Artie Lewicki available on Monday (even that isn't a guaranteed statement), but Vandy has fewer bullets in the chamber than UVa does, having used up a few of them in order to get here.

And there's something to be said for lights-out pitching.  Vandy has good arms - but they're trumped by the 0.55 ERA UVa's hurlers have produced in three CWS games.  This is an absolutely dialed-in bunch right now.  If they stay dialed-in, Vandy will lose two in a row.  They might be a close two in a row, but still.  Baseball is an anything-can-happen sport, but UVa should be seen as the favorite.

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While I have the chance, a few bullets on yesterday's Ole Miss action:

-- Robbie Coman was deservedly named the player of the game by the announcers, which was really even more impressive given his awful early innings.  One passed ball - which, yes, basically led to Ole Miss's run - and one terrible at-bat had me muttering swear words to myself about how Coman needed to get his head in the game.  Once his brain was properly screwed in - really nice work.

-- I complain about crappy announcing, so I have to give credit when it's due - I thought the discussion they had about Joe McCarthy's bunt was as good an exchange as you get in baseball announcing, up there with the nuggets Bobby Knight dispenses about basketball.  On the one hand, yes, you want to improve your chances of scoring a run; on the other hand, maybe one of your best hitters can move the runner up just by letting him take his hacks.

For the record, I agree with the bunt in that situation.  Followers of sabermetrics hate sac bunts in almost any situation, but sabermetrics is nearly a context-free system.  When you're in a park that's tilting the game way, way in favor of the pitcher, and your own pitchers are just mowing them down, that extra run is a big deal.  With a runner on first and none out, and you bunt, you're saying that one run is more important than the chance for multiple runs.  I agree and would gladly improve my odds of scoring that one run, even at the expense of the second run, given the ballpark and the pitchers.  That run looms awfully large when you do score it.

-- So was that also part of Vengeance Tour '14?  Oh, absolutely.  You'll remember the 2007 regional, in which Oregon State got a weather reprieve and used the newly-rested pitchers to beat UVa twice in a row.  Mississippi got the same gift and couldn't cash in, even when they were able to pull a pitcher that UVa was absolutely tagging in favor of their ace.

And now the final round of the Tour begins: I'd long forgotten, if I even ever knew, that Vanderbilt was the team that booted UVa from the 2004 tournament.  So now Vengeance Tour '14 can come full circle, from the very first season of BOC.  Time to go win.....something.