twenty-one

National champ-peen-ship, y'all.  I'm long since on the record as admitting I don't get around to watching nearly as much UVA soccer as I'd like.  (I've considered remedying this next year by ignoring football, but that'd be all talk and no action on that front.)  In fact this season I've seen exactly two soccer games: the women's semifinal against Texas A&M and the men's national title against UCLA.  I had to miss the men's semis and women's finals for reasons of State.

It didn't take me long to decide I hated the announcers.  I wasn't even paying attention to them in the A&M game so I have no idea, but it was only about 20 minutes into the UCLA game before I decided the announcing was a zero on a scale of Pam Ward to Keith Jackson.  Their contempt for UVA's game plan was plain as day and got plainer as the first half wore on.  Although I did enjoy their description of the UVA strategy as "cynical."

Guess which strategy UVA went with?

You can't totally fault them, if the idea is that games should always be exciting shootouts.  But UVA came into the game 111th in the country in scoring average.  One-hundred and eleventh, it's not an extra-1 typo.  In only one tournament game did the Hoos score more than once.  UCLA came in with only one tournament game of fewer than three goals.  So it should be no surprise that Gelnovatch decided not to run 'n' gun with the Bruins.  "The beautiful game" it was not, but Gelnovatch isn't paid to entertain the pundits.

And frankly, it worked to almost complete perfection.  Actual perfection would've been a 1-0 win with the one goal probably coming off of some kind of set piece.  You don't counterattack to try and score, because that would expose you; you counterattack with the aim of getting a corner kick.  If it doesn't go in, which it usually doesn't but it's more than worth a try, bunker back down and try again.  I laughed when halftime rolled around and the announcers said UCLA had to be very pleased with the first half and then both coaches said the first 45 went completely UVA's way.  I might've considered it a Bruin domination, if UCLA had generated more than the occasional chance, but UVA's keeper Calle Brown was barely tested.  Owning the possession battle 45 yards out is one thing; it's another thing entirely to dictate the game.  UVA did so without having the ball.

The second half - a little more pressure, the Bruins clearly took their coaching to heart and were less patient, more attacking, but also a great deal more frustrated.  UCLA's Edgar Contreras ought to have been red-carded for a head-butt, but I can't completely fault the refs as the camera was right on it in real time and I still missed it until the replay.  But it was a clear sign that UCLA was used to being able to break down a defense, and UVA's brick wall was getting to them.

The game is likely to attract precisely zero new fans to the game of soccer, but just look at all the bothers I give.  You know I love me some pack-line defense, and so, apparently, does George Gelnovatch.  Tony Bennett wins basketball games 45-26, but he wins basketball games.  At the end of the day, here's the stat that matters most: 21.  And the one that matters second-most is 0.

*******************************************

The first major bit of football attrition hit last week when Eli Harold declared for the draft.  That makes two; David Watford also decided to transfer, but the effect of that will be almost nil.  Except to eliminate bizarre message board posts wondering why he's on the field in any capacity at all, as if not being a good quarterback is the same as not being a good receiver.

UVA dodged a bullet when Max Valles announced that he'd be returning next year, quashing rumors to the contrary.  Smart - Valles would've been going almost entirely on physical attributes.  A year of opening some scouts' eyes would help him.  Harold, though he could benefit from another year, is probably in good shape anyway.  He showed this year that he can defend the run and isn't just a one-dimensional pass rusher.  Once he gets in front of scouts at the combine, he should make an appearance on draft boards and could easily be a second or third round pick; his ceiling, if the workouts look good, would be the low first.

As for our defense, it's a fairly major hit, but there's a long-run silver lining: next year, Harold and the Moores (Michael and Kwontie) would once again have dominated the playing time.  Great, because they'll do well, but no experience for the boatload of guys behind them.  Trent Corney should start off as the third DE, but there's a trio of redshirt freshmen who will get a chance to make a wave or two as well.

*******************************************

And the second major bit of football attrition is on the coaching staff, as Scott Wachenheim is off to VMI to play head coach.  Good for him - it's his first head-coaching gig, though he did have the title of OC and assistant HC at Liberty for a few years.  There can't be a tougher place in the world to win at football than VMI, except maybe the Citadel.  From his perspective, this is definitely striking while the iron is hot - the chances that most of this staff is out of a job next year are awfully high, and you might as well grab a promotion while it's there.  Even if London was on rock-solid ground, I think he'd go anyway, but still.

Wachenheim leaves with one of the most mixed legacies I've ever seen for an assistant coach.  He was vilified at times for the play of the O-line, and I think at least partially deservedly so.  But he leaves on a positive note, having gained a lot of credit for making the O-line not be a total black hole of suck despite being held together with Scotch tape and having to use 260-pound converted DE (or TE or whatever) Jack English as a left tackle.  And I think also deservedly so.

It leaves UVA with two openings to fill, including the impending (or already-occurred) retirement of Tom O'Brien, whose UVA career was basically a dud.  There's an inexplicable level of support for Ron Mattes, who was here like, a year, and performed no miracles.  He'll be here as soon as Bill Musgrave comes back, I'm sure.  A much more likely name, and these tea leaves sure read awfully clearly, thanks to Streaking the Lawn's Tweety account, is current Edmonton Eskimos O-line coach Jonathan Himebauch.

*******************************************

For lack of anything to do in this basketball wilderness, I put together another season sim, since it had been a couple weeks and stuff happened.  You can find it below and on the original season sim post, for easier comparison to the previous version.

NC State and Notre Dame are on the rise; both won an early-season ACC game against Wake and FSU, respectively, and ND has been handling a lot of business as well.  NC State, not so much, but then, Wofford is actually awfully highly-ranked for a SoCon team.

Being as UVA has also been handling business, the Hoos leapfrogged Louisville, which itself didn't exactly fare badly, just not as well as UVA.  Maryland and VCU are both higher-ranked than all but five ACC teams, and UVA crushed both on the road.  It's becoming clear that there's a top three in this league, and as such, the race for the top seed has obvious huge implications.

game preview: Richmond

Date/Time: Saturday, September 6; 3:30

TV: ESPN3

Record against the Spiders: 27-2-2

Last meeting: UVA 43, UR 19; 9/1/12, Charlottesville

Last weekend: UCLA 28, UVA 20; UR 55, Morehead St. 10

Line: none

Injury report: N/A

It's hard to find a matchup of I-A and I-AA teams that's full of storylines, but this one always seems to qualify.  A couple years ago it was all about the UVA connection on the UR coaching staff - which is still true, by the way, with Byron Thweatt and Fontel Mines represented, along with a couple former UVA assistant coaches - and now it's the quarterbacks, too.  Michael Strauss and Mike Rocco aren't the first UVA quarterbacks to end up in Richmond, but then, Bryson Spinner never played against UVA after doing so.  So there'll be quite a few Spiders who really want to take the Hoos down a peg.

-- UVA run offense vs. UR run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 17 carries, 55 yards, 3.2 ypc, 0 TDs
Taquan Mizzell: 10 carries, 31 yards, 3.1 ypc, 0 TDs

UVA offense:
120 yards/game, 3.08 yards/attempt
94th of 122 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)

UR defense:
100 yards/game, 3.57 yards/attempt
36th of 103 (national), 5th of 12 (CAA)

The running game was only marginally effective - at best - against UCLA.  It didn't offer much hope for the O-line this year.  This week, though, a respite seems in order.  Richmond's stats against Morehead State aren't that bad, but worse than you'd maybe expect to see from a game like that.  Morehead State is one of the weaker teams in one of I-AA's weakest leagues: the Pioneer League, a conclave of teams that don't offer football scholarships at all.  Morehead State is about to take on Pikeville this week - an NAIA team that they lost to last year.  So any failure to completely dominate Morehead State in any aspect of the game is an exploitable weakness.  Richmond's defensive playmaking was almost exclusively in the defensive backfield, the one notable exception being linebacker Aaron Roane.  The D-line was of little use, so this matchup should be a pretty slanted one.

-- UVA pass offense vs. UR pass defense

Quarterbacks:
Greyson Lambert: 16/23, 69.6%; 112 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs; 4.87 yards/attempt
Matt Johns: 13/22, 59.1%; 154 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs; 7.00 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Taquan Mizzell: 6 rec., 15 yards, 0 TDs
Canaan Severin: 5 rec., 55 yards, 0 TDs
Doni Dowling: 5 rec., 25 yards, 0 TDs

UVA offense:
266 yards/game, 5.9 yards/attempt
89th of 122 (national); 11th of 14 (ACC)

UR defense:
209 yards/game, 4.35 yards/attempt
19th of 103 (national); 2nd of 12 (CAA)

Richmond looked better here, playing pretty effectively against Morehead State's passing game, but again - they didn't dominate.  The Spiders picked up no sacks and no interceptions, and Morehead's Austin Gahafer was able to complete 62% - though much like Greyson Lambert against UCLA, he was dink-dunking, which contributes some to the lack of big plays on defense for Richmond.

Mike London is about to coach in his 51st game at UVA, and in more than 30 of them, he's used two quarterbacks.  This will just increase that already insanely high percentage, although at least this time, I agree with the need to do so.  If he's smart, he'll alternate possessions rather than giving one half to one quarterback - that way, he's evaluating their play against the same defensive personnel.

Problem is, quarterback competitions being what they are, I don't expect a lot of separation.  Richmond isn't likely to be good enough to provide many decision points.  Both of them should fare well here.  What we're more likely to see is some clarification at receiver.  Somebody will have an eight-catch game, somewhere.  The UCLA game saw a lot of different players step up, and we didn't even get to see much of Keeon Johnson or any of Jamil Kamara, so the game will start with a really muddy picture at receiver; I think it'll clear up some by the end, though.

-- UR run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Jacobi Green: 9 carries, 42 yards, 4.7 ypc, 0 TDs
Seth Fisher: 8 carries, 48 yards, 6.0 ypc, 0 TDs

UR offense:
235.0 yards/game, 5.22 yards/attempt
25th of 103 (national); 2nd of 12 (CAA)

UVA defense:
116.0 yards/game, 2.97 yards/attempt
45th of 122 (national); 5th of 14 (ACC)

The strictures of my own format forbid listing them all, but Richmond was able to really spread the carries around against Morehead, with the main ballcarriers being the ones listed above: Seth Fisher and Jacobi Green.  That was Richmond's two-headed attack last year, the two combining for a shade over 1,000 yards on the season.  They're both big, rumbly backs, especially Fisher, and Richmond brought out another bowling ball in the fourth quarter last week, in the form of true freshman Jeremiah Hamlin.  Hamlin ended up as the game's leading rusher, with 80 yards in just a quarter of work - though, again, it was the fourth.

Richmond's O-line is pretty good for I-AA, especially at center where Austin Gund piles up all-conference honors pretty quickly.  The line is big, as big as you'd find on the I-A level.  Still, it's a matchup of strength on strength.  What I like here is UVA's linebackers; Richmond's backs are big, but they aren't speed merchants in the least degree; Coley and Romero are physically fairly quick but mentally much quicker, and should be able to stuff the run game pretty consistently.

-- UR pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterbacks:
Michael Strauss: 17/23, 73.9%; 259 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs; 11.3 yards/attempt
Mike Rocco: 9/13, 69.2%; 117 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; 9.0 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Stephen Barnette: 6 rec., 76 yards, 1 TD
Brian Brown: 5 rec., 110 yards, 0 TDs
Rashad Ponder: 4 rec., 33 yards, 0 TDs

UR offense:
408.0 yards/game, 9.95 yards/attempt
11th of 103 (national); 1st of 12 (CAA)

UVA defense:
242.0 yards/game, 7.1 yards/attempt
77th of 122 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)

Those numbers for the UVA defense don't seem quite fair, given the harassment laid on Brett Hundley all day long last week.  The secondary was a little disappointing, though; Tim Harris appeared to have a rough day in coverage.  Richmond could present another challenge at times.  To start off with, Michael Strauss had a terrific year for the Spiders last year.  Against Morehead he was still the undisputed starter, despite speculation that Mike Rocco would give him a challenge.  After all, Rocco did beat Strauss out once already.

I think we'll see less of Rocco than people think, though.  Strauss picked up against Morehead where he left off last year, and Rocco threw the game's lone interception.  Richmond has a really dangerous go-to weapon in Stephen Barnette, a tall and lanky receiver who averaged nearly 100 yards a game last year.  Brian Brown could be emerging as a danger spot as well; he's a sophomore who had a big game last week and nearly eclipsed his freshman-year stats in just that one game.

Obviously, keeping up the pressure has to be a bread-and-butter thing for UVA this year if the defense is to keep the Hoos in games.  It was a lot of fun last week, watching Hundley scramble for his life and never even sure which side the heat would come from.  The Richmond QBs left UVA before Jon Tenuta got here, so they haven't seen his mad-hatter blitzing in practice at all.

-- Favorability ratings

A feature that returns from last year.  Still early in the season to be nailing these down with tons of accuracy, but it doesn't stop me from trying.

UVA run offense: 8.5
UVA pass offense: 8.5
UVA run defense: 9
UVA pass defense: 7.5

Average: 8.375

-- Outlook

As justifiably skeptical as anyone might be about Mike London's abilities, there's this going for him: UVA has never had any trouble with I-AA teams under his tenure.  I figure that's got a lot to do with the high level of talent London's brought in.  At some point, superior athleticism just becomes too much.  Richmond has a passing game that's often the envy of the CAA, but they don't have a way to stop Eli Harold from screwing with it.  UVA should be able to grind out a fairly easy and somewhat anticlimactic win.

-- Predictions

-- Both Johns and Lambert throw for over 150 yards, and their final stats are not very distinguishable from each other.

-- A UVA receiver grabs at least 8 receptions.

-- Taquan Mizzell finally breaks the long gain we've been waiting to see - 50 yards or more.

-- Rocco's presence is basically a non-issue, with Strauss throwing at least 2.5 times more passes than him.

-- UVA picks up at least four more sacks.

-- Richmond's offense is held scoreless in the first half, but not the whole game.

Final score: UVA 38, UR 14

-- Rest of the ACC

Pittsburgh @ Boston College - Fri. - Is anyone else still having trouble getting used to this matchup of northern urban schools as an ACC game?

Clemson vs. South Carolina State - 12:30 - Clemson was no help whatsoever for the ACC's rep last week.  Not that they were the only ones, though.

Georgia Tech @ Tulane - 4:00 - I'm not convinced that GT is all that big a favorite here.  I mean, they should win.  But.

NC State vs. Old Dominion - 6:00 - See Georgia Tech blurb.

Wake Forest vs. Gardner-Webb - 6:30 - Uh, maybe ditto.  Wake is every ounce as bad as I thought they were.  This could be their only win all year.

Louisville vs. Murray State - 7:00 - Yes, this is Boring Week in the ACC, in case you had been wondering.

Miami vs. Florida A&M - 7:00 - I mean, only four games are on national TV, which doesn't count ESPN3 but does count ESPNews.

Duke @ Troy - 7:00 - There are some that say Duke is smart to "schedule for success."  You know how I feel about that, but here's one more point: when you're scheduling home-and-homes with Troy, it's likely you're scheduling that way because you can't do any better if you tried.

Florida State vs. The Citadel - 7:30 - Jameis Winston will play this game under the spectre of a Title IX sexual assault investigation, which I'm sure will result in a sternly worded note in his student file.

North Carolina vs. San Diego State - 8:00 - UNC will get a few suspended players back for this one, because their hazing investigation found there wasn't any room left underneath the rug.

Virginia Tech @ Ohio State - 8:00 - I love games like this, where someone has to lose.

full-fledged 2014 ACC preview

Whew.  All 13 opposing-team previews are out - finally - after busting my butt all weekend on that stuff.  Because of that I'm letting myself brag again: if you can find a more in-depth free preview, lemme know so I can beat it next year.  I mean, sure, Phil Steele kicks my ass, but you gotta pay him for the privilege.

We're not all the way done, though, because it's time to put the whole thing together.  I liked how this worked last year so I'm only making a few tweaks.  Your table of contents is:

-- Positional rankings
-- Cumulative rankings
-- Schedule rankings
-- Hot-seat coaches
-- Bowl predictions

For reference, here are the links to the individual previews:

Boston College
Clemson
Duke
Florida State
Georgia Tech
Louisville
Miami
North Carolina
NC State
Pittsburgh
Syracuse
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest

Time to get crackin'.

Positional rankings

-- Quarterback:

1. Florida State - Jameis Winston
2. Duke - Anthony Boone
3. North Carolina - Marquise Williams
4. Clemson - Cole Stoudt
5. Syracuse - Terrel Hunt
6. NC State - Jacoby Brissett
7. Pittsburgh - Chad Voytik
8. Boston College - Tyler Murphy
9. Miami - Brad Kaaya
10. Virginia - Greyson Lambert
11. Louisville - Will Gardner
12. Georgia Tech - Justin Thomas
13. Virginia Tech - Michael Brewer
14. Wake Forest - John Wolford

Yeesh.  Do you realize that 10 of 14 ACC teams will be breaking in a new starting quarterback this year?  And that doesn't even count UNC, which still has an OR on the QB depth chart and apparently plans to either platoon Marquise Williams and Mitch Trubisky, or hide their intentions as long as they can.  If Trubisky starts for UNC this weekend, there'll be three freshman starters in the ACC, to go with five redshirt sophomores.

This is a long way of saying that half of this ranking is voodoo magic.  OK, Jameis Winston goes up top.  A little bonus for returning starters, and then a huge helping of my own opinion.  Chad Voytik?  Brad Kaaya?  Greyson Lambert?  Who knows, man.  With all but the very top and the very bottom, almost just pull 'em out of a hat.

-- Pass catchers (WR/TE)

1. Pittsburgh - Tyler Boyd, Manasseh Garner
2. Duke - Jamison Crowder, Max McCaffrey
3. Louisville - DeVante Parker, Eli Rogers
4. Florida State - Rashad Greene, Nick O'Leary
5. North Carolina - Quinshad Davis, Ryan Switzer
6. Miami - Phillip Dorsett, Stacy Coley
7. Clemson - Charone Peake, Mike Williams
8. Syracuse - Ashton Broyld, Jarrod West
9. Virginia Tech - Joshua Stanford, Willie Byrn
10. NC State - Bryan Underwood, Jumichael Ramos
11. Georgia Tech - DeAndre Smelter, Micheal Summers
12. Virginia - Darius Jennings, Keeon Johnson
13. Boston College - Bobby Swigert, Shakim Phillips
14. Wake Forest - Matt James, E.J. Scott

Another tough ranking, and here it's a matter of philosophy.  Do you like a team with a proven big-time star but little depth, or do you prefer a team with a couple of decent players but some five-star freshmen waiting in the wings?  To make things worse, there aren't many impact tight ends in the conference, a situation only exacerbated when Duke lost Braxton Deaver for the season.

We'll go with the big-timers on top, since Tyler Boyd and Jamison Crowder are clearly the top two receivers in the conference, and they have at least one dependable secondary target to take some of the defensive edge off the coverage.  I'll just have to accept the possibility that teams like Clemson and FSU will use their freshman talent to make me look silly by November.

-- Running backs

1. Miami - Duke Johnson, Gus Edwards
2. Pittsburgh - James Conner, Isaac Bennett
3. Florida State - Karlos Williams, Dalvin Cook
4. Louisville - Dominique Brown, Michael Dyer
5. Virginia - Kevin Parks, Taquan Mizzell
6. North Carolina - T.J. Logan, Elijah Hood
7. Duke - Shaq Powell, Josh Snead
8. Syracuse - Prince-Tyson Gulley, George Morris
9. Virginia Tech - Trey Edmunds, J.C. Coleman
10. Georgia Tech - Zach Laskey, Tony Zenon
11. NC State - Shadrach Thornton, Tony Creecy
12. Clemson - D.J. Howard, C.J. Davidson
13. Boston College - Myles Willis, Tyler Rouse
14. Wake Forest - Orville Reynolds, Dominique Gibson

This might the skill position where the ACC is deepest.  A couple star receivers, but not too many - maybe wait til November to see who else emerges.  But at running back, Duke Johnson is a superstar if healthy and Karlos Williams might turn out to be one too.  Pitt boasts two quality, proven backs, one of whom is completely huge.  Michael Dyer is a former MVP of the BCS CG and he's not even the best on his team right now.  Kevin Parks ground out 1,000 yards last year, and the possibilities for Elijah Hood are through the roof.  I enjoy this state of affairs, because a dominant running back is my favorite thing in football.  Last year I underestimated things, for example by putting eventual 2,000-yard rusher Andre Williams of BC 10th.  Nice work.  This year I'm sippin' on the Kool-Aid.

-- Offensive line

1. Florida State - LT Cameron Erving
2. Boston College - C Andy Gallik
3. Louisville - LG John Miller
4. Duke - RG Laken Tomlinson
5. Syracuse - LT Sean Hickey
6. Clemson - C Ryan Norton
7. Miami - LG Jon Feliciano
8. Virginia Tech - LG David Wang
9. NC State - RT Tyson Chandler
10. North Carolina - RG Landon Turner
11. Pittsburgh - LG Matt Rotheram
12. Georgia Tech - RG Shaquille Mason
13. Virginia - RG Conner Davis
14. Wake Forest - RT Dylan Intemann

What struck me in going through the O-line rankings was how many of the ACC's lines have guards as their experienced anchors.  Not too many big-time left tackles.  That's nice for the running games, I suppose - it's probably also nice for the ACC's defensive ends.

Also: thank heavens for Wake Forest, because I look at some of these lines in this league and then I look at ours and I go: well crap.  BC and FSU don't start a single player who isn't a senior.  Isn't that kind of the goal?  Our injury-riddled mess is saved from the cellar by the fact that Wake is starting a true freshman at center.  That was the tiebreaker right there.  But anyone consumed with optimism over our O-line, well, should probably take a look at the upper echelons of those rankings to see what things look like if you've been doing it right.

-- Defensive line

1. Clemson - Vic Beasley
2. Virginia Tech - Luther Maddy
3. NC State - Thomas Teal
4. Virginia - Eli Harold
5. Florida State - Mario Edwards
6. Boston College - Connor Wujciak
7. Miami - Anthony Chickillo
8. Syracuse - Robert Welsh
9. North Carolina - Norkeithus Otis
10. Louisville - B.J. Dubose
11. Pittsburgh - Shakir Soto
12. Georgia Tech - Adam Gotsis
13. Duke - Jamal Bruce
14. Wake Forest - Zachary Allen

If there's a saving grace for UVA's offensive line, it's the state of defensive lines in the conference.  Lots of graduation means lots of inexperience up and down the coast, and frankly, just some plain bad defensive lines here.  Again, Wake is stinking up the joint.  Duke is full of career backups.  GT would be worse than both of those two if not for the star power of Adam Gotsis, who will probably be quadruple-teamed on every play.  It gives the Hoos, with Eli Harold and David Dean, and major potential in Andrew Brown, a chance to shine.

Up top, Clemson gets the nod not only because Vic Beasley is disgustingly good, but the line is completely loaded down with seniors, and Grady Jarrett is almost as good as Beasley.  The Clemson-Wake Forest game - oh dear God.

-- Linebackers

1. Virginia - Henry Coley
2. Clemson - Stephone Anthony
3. Syracuse - Cameron Lynch
4. Louisville - Lorenzo Mauldin
5. North Carolina - Travis Hughes
6. Georgia Tech - Quayshawn Nealy
7. Pittsburgh - Anthony Gonzalez
8. Boston College - Steven Daniels
9. Florida State - Terrance Smith
10. Duke - David Helton
11. Wake Forest - Brandon Chubb
12. Miami - Denzel Perryman
13. NC State - Brandon Pittman
14. Virginia Tech - Deon Clarke

Well, well.  This is not the orange glasses talking here; I legitimately think UVA has the best linebackers in the conference.  Only a small handful of teams can claim they return two top-producing LBs the way UVA does, and when they do they're not the tackle monsters Coley and Romero are; those two got into way too many backfields to ignore what they do.  Clemson's Stephone Anthony is probably the best individual 'backer in the ACC, and there are some solid players up and down the list.  Even Wake gets in on the act, finally getting out of the cellar and leaving that to VT(!), where inexperience abounds.

The sudden proliferation of 4-2-5 nickel defenses in the ACC admittedly clouds up the evaluation a little bit here.  Something like five or six teams are headed that way, and that's just who's announced it; there's probably more coaches figuring they'll be in a nickel at least two-thirds of the time.  Why cover a tight end or a slot receiver with a linebacker when you can use an extra safety?  Sometimes it's as simple as renaming the Sam the Rover or something like that, but that also tends to make a smaller player out of that position, too.  At any rate, teams are not developing the linebacker depth that they used to.

Duke, by the way, lost something like six spots in this ranking when Kelby Brown was lost for the season.  David Helton is a solid player but that's a huge loss regardless.

-- Secondaries

1. Virginia Tech - Kendall Fuller
2. Wake Forest - Ryan Janvion
3. Florida State - Nate Andrews
4. Boston College - Sean Sylvia
5. Duke - Jeremy Cash
6. North Carolina - Tim Scott
7. Louisville - Terrell Floyd
8. Virginia - Anthony Harris
9. Miami - Tracy Howard
10. Syracuse - Durell Eskridge
11. NC State - Jarvis Byrd
12. Georgia Tech - Isaiah Johnson
13. Clemson - Robert Smith
14. Pittsburgh - Ray Vinopal

Finally, Wake gets their day in the sun.  That is a very impressive secondary they run, and most years it'd be the best in the conference without any doubt.  Unfortunately, VT's is even better.  You have two extremely experienced safeties and two ballhawking cornerbacks, with depth behind them to boot.  It's probably the best unit of any kind in the conference, and makes a strong case for the same on a national level.

As for UVA's ranking, Demetrious Nicholson's complete absence from the depth chart - which may or may not stretch into December - is worth a bump downwards.  More production in the form of INTs from someone like Maurice Canady would've helped.  There's depth, and a hell of a lot of intrigue with Quin Blanding lining up as a starter, but athletic abilities aside, freshman safeties have a tendency to run really fast in the wrong direction.  The conference is hardly bereft of quality defensive backs, so it's hard to justify moving us any higher for now.

Cumulative rankings

-- Atlantic offense

1. Florida State
2. Louisville
3. Syracuse
4. Clemson
5. Boston College
6. NC State
7. Wake Forest

-- Coastal offense

1. Duke
2. Pittsburgh
3. Miami
4. North Carolina
5. Virginia Tech
6. Virginia
7. Georgia Tech

-- Conference offense

1. Florida State
2. Duke
3. Louisville
4. Pittsburgh
5. Miami
6. North Carolina
7. Syracuse
8. Clemson
9. Boston College
10. NC State
11. Virginia Tech
12. Virginia
13. Georgia Tech
14. Wake Forest

I think it's a little odd that Pitt ended up with the Coastal's 2nd best offense, ranking above Miami, UNC, Clemson, etc.  You can move them down a few spots if, for example, you like Brad Kaaya better than Chad Voytik.  I'm not offended if you do, but do keep in mind Tyler Boyd as well.  Clemson is down that far primarily because there's so little proven talent at WR and RB, particularly the latter.  I already did mention that their WRs could make me look dumb, but the RBs look rather less dynamic.

-- Atlantic defense

1. Clemson
2. Florida State
3. Boston College
4. Louisville
5. Syracuse
6. NC State
7. Wake Forest

-- Coastal defense

1. Virginia
2. Virginia Tech
3. North Carolina
4. Duke
5. Miami
6. Georgia Tech
7. Pittsburgh

-- Conference defense

1. Virginia
2. Clemson
3. Florida State
4. Virginia Tech
5. Boston College
6. North Carolina
7. Louisville
8. Syracuse
9. NC State
10. Wake Forest
11. Duke
12. Miami
13. Georgia Tech
14. Pittsburgh

Call me a homer, call me what you will.  I admit that the flaw in the methodology here is that if you have one really good unit or one really bad one, you're probably gonna look better or worse than you should.  Hence Wake, whose massive defensive flaws up front won't be entirely covered up by their secondary, and VT, who can probably cover up their linebackers (and Bud Foster will probably have them crapping thunder by October anyway but whatever.)  And none of this takes into account coaching.

Still, it's UVA with the top linebackers, last year's national INT leader, depth in the secondary, a solid and improving defensive line, and two elite recruits jumping right in.  There's very little separation in the top five anyway.  Also, it's interesting that the four worst defenses are all Coastal teams - now you know why nobody can figure out who's supposed to win the damn thing.

-- Atlantic overall

1. Florida State
2. Louisville
3. Clemson
4. Syracuse
5. Boston College
6. NC State
7. Wake Forest

-- Coastal overall

1. Duke
2. North Carolina
3. Miami
4. Virginia
5. Pittsburgh
6. Virginia Tech
7. Georgia Tech

-- Conference overall

1. Florida State
2. Louisville
3. Duke
4. North Carolina
5. Clemson
6. Syracuse
7. Miami
8. Virginia
9. Pittsburgh
10. Boston College
11. Virginia Tech
12. NC State
13. Georgia Tech
14. Wake Forest

Yes, VT looks awfully odd down there on the bottom, below that crappy 2-10 team from last year.  I can't help that Texas Tech's 3rd-string QB is now their starter.  Just know that coaching matters, this doesn't take into account coaching, and if they had even middling linebackers (they probably will by October; that's where that coaching stuff comes in) they'd jump to 3rd in the division.

However, I am willing to draw the following conclusions from this:

- Louisville could unseat Clemson as FSU's primary challenger, more easily than people might think.  It's close, though.
- Duke is still pretty good, and won't be a flash in the pan.  But defense wins championships, so I've got UNC as the actual favorite in the Coastal.
- GT is primed for a huge fall.  It won't be purty.
- If Wake so much as wins four games, Dave Clawson should be COY.
- Miami is probably not as good as people think.  Not bad, but not ready for the ACC CG.

Schedule rankings

For these, I'll simply build on the above, and use the point totals - not the rankings, but the point totals, which is to say, FSU's rankings add up to 26 - to divine the toughest and easiest conference schedules.  A multiplier of 0.75 is applied to road games and 1.25 to home games.  This is just simple math.  Easiest schedules listed first.

1. Florida State
2. Duke
3. Virginia Tech
4. North Carolina
5. NC State
6. Louisville
7. Pittsburgh
8. Clemson
9. Boston College
10. Georgia Tech
11. Syracuse
12. Virginia
13. Wake Forest
14. Miami

- All the more reason not to like Miami as a contender - crossovers against Louisville and FSU.
- And all the more reason not to see Duke as a flash in the pan.
- I swear VT has incriminating pictures of people in the ACC scheduling department - look who got Wake Forest this year.
- FSU gets the easiest schedule simply because they're the only Atlantic team not to have to play FSU.

Hot seat coaches

Broken down into three groups: safe, safe-ish, and look out below.  First, the guys with job security:

Steve Addazio - BC
Frank Beamer - VT
Paul Chryst - Pitt
Dave Clawson - Wake
David Cutcliffe - Duke
Dave Doeren - NC State
Larry Fedora - UNC
Jimbo Fisher - FSU
Al Golden - Miami
Bobby Petrino - Louisville
Scott Shafer - Syracuse
Dabo Swinney - Clemson

OK, so, that's most of the conference.  Many of them (Addazio, Chryst, Clawson, Doeren, Fedora, Petrino, Shafer) are too new to be in much danger no matter what happens.  Beamer's got a few years of mediocrity cushion before the natives get too restless.  Golden steered the program through scandal and has improved every year.  Addazio got a team to a bowl game that didn't think they could buy tickets to one.  Fisher won a trophy of some kind, which should buy him a few years; ordinarily, the FSU coach just sort of occupies a perpetually warm seat just because.  Of these, Swinney is probably the closest to anything like a hot seat, but he's had plenty of success lately.

One coach resides in the land where he's probably not out the door after this year, but can't afford a bad season or the headhunters will start gearing up: Paul Johnson.  A really bad season could see him canned; he's burned through a couple DCs now, and the program has trended pretty flat, if not a bit downward.

So I think you can figure out the rest on your own.  The Syracuse newspaper wasn't wrong when they wrote that there was only one real hot-seat coach in the ACC this year.

Bowl predictions

That brings us to brass tacks.  Real reputation-on-the-line stuff.  First, the actual predicted order of finish, or, how I'd vote in a preseason media poll:

-- Atlantic

1. Florida State
2. Clemson
3. Louisville
4. Syracuse
5. Boston College
6. NC State
7. Wake Forest

-- Coastal

1. North Carolina
2. Duke
3. Virginia Tech
4. Miami
5. Pittsburgh
6. Virginia
7. Georgia Tech

Most of the deviation from the rankings above has to do with 1. schedule strength and 2. coaching.

And finally, the bowls - not forgetting that Notre Dame gets to piggyback:

Sugar Bowl: Florida State (playoff)
Orange Bowl: Clemson
ex-Citrus: Louisville
ex-Tangerine (RA): Notre Dame
ex-Tire: North Carolina
Pinstripe: Syracuse
Sun: Miami
Military: Virginia Tech
QL: NC State**
Independence: Boston College
St. Petersburg: Pittsburgh

No bowl: Virginia, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech

**This is the bowl game in Detroit.  I believe it's actually supposed to be announced Tuesday (today, that is, when you're most likely to be reading this) but the bowl has a name which I'd probably irritate my employer by saying out loud before that happens.

Coming this week: actual UVA previews!

the recruit: Darrious Carter

Name: Darrious Carter
Position: DE
Hometown: Indiana, PA
School: Indiana Area
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 200

24/7: 85, three stars; #89 ATH, PA #33
ESPN: 73, three stars; #136 ATH, PA #44, East #192
Rivals: 5.4, two stars
Scout: two stars

Other offers: Temple

As the offseason went on, Mike London continued to address the class's gaping hole at DE by pilfering decent-looking athletes from other schools; that process continued shortly before Christmas Day with Darrious Carter's switch from Temple.  Carter was the second of three DEs to flip-flop to UVA.

The first thing you ought to've noticed here is the number 200, as in, pounds Carter weighs.  This is hilariously light for a defensive end; Eli Harold came in around 210, and this was more than duly noted by most observers, the difference being that Harold was a freak of nature.  Carter, though athletic enough to not only play wide receiver but rack up over 1,000 yards doing so, is not Haroldesque in his freakitude.  ESPN observes that his athleticism is enough to "excite non BCS schools and even possibly some lower level BCS ones."  Hey, that's us.

Carter was recruited to be a pass-rushing DE, though - and like Michael Biesemier, in no small reason because of his frame.  Whereas Biesemier is seen as a prototypical strong-side guy with the ability to bulk up into a run-stopper, Carter is on the other side as a weak-side pass rusher.  He's one of those guys with a long-limbed basketball build, something the coaches like about his potential.  Scout and ESPN agree that he's ok-quick off the line, not high-level in that regard, but note that lack of elite athleticism hasn't stopped him from being a playmaker.

Whatever plays he makes in a UVA uniform will probably have to wait quite a while.  Because he's so extremely lean, Carter is the least likely of the three signed DEs to see the field soonest.  As he's probably not going to be able to explode past ACC tackles the way Harold can, Carter needs to put on probably 30-35 pounds as the barest of minimums.  Probably more like 40-45 before he's hitting his full potential.

The likely long development curve, and the obvious lame-duckitude of the coaching staff, put Carter at risk of being recruited over in a couple years.  Probably more so than most of the rest of the class, which as a group carries various degrees of risk in that regard.  It'll be in his best interest to bulk up as fast as possible.  Carter ought to have three full years of separation between himself and the current sophomores at DE (Harold, Michael Moore, etc.) after what damn well better be a redshirt year, and after that the only DE between them and this class is Jack English, who's more a SDE type if someone doesn't decide he's more a TE type.  So the good news is the path is wide open, and when Carter's a (redshirt) sophomore in 2016, he'll be among the most experienced DEs we have.  Now, that's a really lousy situation for the defensive outlook in general, but if Carter doesn't seize that opportunity, then he was never going to see much time in the first place.

what went right

In a 2-10 season, very little.  But we're going to try and put on a smiley face and see if there weren't a few nuggets of goodness here and there.  It's kind of a fake smiley face, mind you.

Also, as good as Brent Urban was this year, we're going to limit it to things that can be applied to next year.  That way there's no false hope.  Nope, nothing but real optimism in this post.

Kevin Parks

Parks recorded the first 1,000-yard season by a UVA back since Alvin Pearman in 2004.  This is a pretty nice individual achievement.  I'm going to break my optimism rule, though, by pointing out that it was largely due to not having to extensively share carries.  Several seasons since then, there would've been a 1,000-yard rusher if the carries had not been split, and that 2004 season almost had two such accomplishments, with Wali Lundy falling 100-and-some short.  Even the much-maligned Michael Johnson looked awfully good that year.  UVA had a powerful rushing attack in 2004.

Still.  The more-overarching point to this is that Steve Fairchild deserves a pretty good deal of credit for this.  Parks is a solid back with good vision and balance and he hits a hole pretty quick.  And, obviously, highly durable.  But he's also thoroughly unexplosive; he had just one run all season over 50 yards, and in seven of twelve games, didn't pass 20 on any one run.  This means he can't pad out his stats by being bottled up all game and then bursting through for one huge run to make the whole day look good.  In order for Parks to rack up yards, he has to do it on a lot of different plays, and he needs good blocking to do it.

And this was an offensive line that lost most of its physical battles.  So how to get an unexplosive back running behind an unproductive line to the 1,000-yard marker?  Schemes.  Fairchild's playbook deserves much of the credit for the accomplishment.  It's why when the whole fanbase is giving him an F-minus, I give Fairchild a C.  I had as much hate and discontent as anyone over things like short-side sweeps on 4th-and-2, but we have to apply Sherlock Holmes's maxim here.  When you've eliminated all else, whatever remains, however improbable must be the truth.  Parks didn't get to 1,000 yard by racing away from defenders and he didn't get there because the offensive line blew open holes for him.  What remains is Fairchild, however, unpopular a conclusion that may be.

Anthony Harris

Actually this sort of breaks another rule, the one about being able to apply this stuff to next year, because seasons like Harris's regress to the mean most of the time.  Still, you just can't knock the nation's interceptions leader.  The problem with a safety, unfortunately, is that a good one cannot make a bad defense good, but a bad one can make a good defense bad.

So the defense as a whole didn't really follow suit.  But a guy with instincts like Harris's, but with 12 extra games under his belt, ought to be a force on the field next year.

Eric Smith

Smith was a true freshman on the offensive line, which at times went about how you'd expect.  Georgia Tech was a particular case, in which Smith had to go up against Jeremiah Attaochu all day and spent the whole day eating Attaochu's cleats.  Sometimes he was just freshman-y.

Sometimes, though, he was fantastic.  Clemson's Vic Beasley finished the season with 12 sacks, but never recorded one against Smith and UVA.  Smith had a good game against VT as well, and over the course of the season, the good outweighed the bad.  UVA has a good one in Smith, who could be the left tackle for the next three years.

Linebackers

I asserted early in the season, here and on TheSabre too, that I thought Daquan Romero should be the top candidate to lead the team in tackles.  I ended up being off by two; Henry Coley nudged him out 91-89.  Both Coley and Romero showed impressive instincts this year; Romero was particularly excellent at sniffing out and blowing up screen plays.

Combined with Harris, these two will give UVA more quarterbacks on defense next year than it knows what to do with.  Their ranginess gave Jon Tenuta confidence enough to use his third linebacker spot on Max Valles, who couldn't do much more than pass rush.

Eli Harold

Not only did he pile up eight sacks, he averaged 10 yards on them.

******************************************

There are a few honorable mention names that don't really qualify as full bright spots.  David Dean piled up very nice numbers for a DT but generally needed Brent Urban next to him.  Without Urban, teams tended to smother Dean.  Hopefully next year as he becomes an upperclassman he'll be the guy opening up a lane for his neighbor.  Daniel Hamm had that one really nice game; pity he got relegated to the back of the bench anyway.  Khalek Shepherd, when healthy, was a nice change of pace back.  Urban, of course, was outstanding, and his loss probably cost UVA a win somewhere along the line.

Everything else that happened pretty much earns a D at best.  And if there's a grade lower than F-minus-minus-minus, I'll hand it out to the quarterbacks and receivers.  Can you get a Z-minus?  At least, though, a few players kept us interested.  Bravo to that.  I have every confidence this team can show the progress it needs to double its win total next year.

game preview: Pittsburgh

Date/Time: Saturday, September 28; 12:30

TV: RSN, ESPN3

Record against the Panthers: 2-3

Last meeting: UVA 44, Pitt 14; 9/29/07, Charlottesville

Last weekend: UVA 49, VMI 0; Pitt 58, Duke 55

Line: Pitt by 5

Injury report:

Virginia

OUT - G George Adeosun, G Conner Davis, G Jack McDonald, TE Mario Nixon, TE Zach Swanson, SS Wilfred Wahee

DOUBTFUL - None

QUESTIONABLE - RB Taquan Mizzell

PROBABLE - WR Miles Gooch, RB Khalek Shepherd

Pittsburgh
OUT - DB Cullen Christian, DE Devin Cook, OL Gabe Roberts

DOUBTFUL - DE Bryan Murphy

QUESTIONABLE - LB Shane Gordon

PROBABLE - None

Time to get the ACC schedule underway.  It's Pitt's first season in the conference, but the opponent isn't totally unfamiliar; these teams have met three times in the past decade or so.  Matt Schaub led the Hoos to a win in what remains the only UVA bowl game I've seen in person, and UVA and Pitt played a home-and-home a few years later in which the teams traded crowd-pleasing blowouts.  This promises to be an interesting series in years to come, since both teams would love to establish a strong presence on each others' home recruiting turf.  For this season, though, it's two teams that could make a bowl game but face an uphill battle to do so - the winner will be halfway to their goal.

-- UVA run offense vs. Pitt run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 56 carries, 260 yards, 4.6 ypc, 3 TD
Daniel Hamm: 21 carries, 136 yards, 6.5 ypc, 2 TD

UVA offense:
196.67 yards/game, 4.10 yards/attempt
82nd of 125 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)

Pitt defense:
194 yards/game, 4.77 yards/attempt
94th of 125 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)

One thing I totally failed to notice from last week's game is that Cody Wallace made the start at RG in place of Conner Davis, who is - we learn this week - injured.  Other than explaining why Eric Tetlow got in the game, it might also be among the reasons why the line struggled early to push VMI off the line.

UVA can afford no such problems in the interior this week, and Wallace is going to have to play the game of his life.  With the twin terrors that Pitt has at defensive tackle - Aaron Donald already has seven TFL in just three games, and Tyrone Ezell is a beast of a nose tackle - it's likely UVA will struggle in the middle all day long.

Despite that, Pitt has struggled to defend the run.  Even against New Mexico they had problems; UNM's top two running backs, Crusoe Gongbay and Cole Gautsch, combined for 20 carries and 145 yards.  A pretty good day on the ground for a team that lost by three touchdowns.  Duke's Brandon Connette and Josh Snead carried 29 times for 160 yards.  Pitt has simply been unsuccessful stopping the run this year.

It won't help if they don't have their defensive ends.  Two of their better ones - Bryan Murphy and Devin Cook - look as though they'll miss the game, and linebacker Shane Gordon, leading his unit in tackles, is also questionable (and judging from posts on the Pitt boards, probably less than questionable).  It's obvious that the place to attack the Pitt defense will be on the edges.  Follow Morgan Moses; he ought to be able to easily handle the Pitt defensive ends.  If Zach Swanson wasn't missing the game I'd feel even more confident about the edges; Swanson is probably the best blocking tight end we have right now.

The question is going to be: who carries the ball?  Parks, of course, will be asked to carry the load, but will the coaches turn back to Hamm?  I'd like to see what happens - Hamm's very aggressive style could pay off in a matchup like this.  If Pitt had really good, heady linebackers it'd be different, because there's no deception in his game and a guy like Steve Greer would find it easy to diagnose.  But linebacking is the weak point in the Pitt defense, and Hamm's desire to get upfield quickly on a run to the edges would help neutralize the Pitt defensive tackles, giving them less time to disengage and chase him down.  Tippytoe runs while the back waits for a hole he likes will get our guys run down from behind.  Not that Shepherd is especially prone to that - but more so than Hamm, yes.

I think if the right game is called, UVA will succeed in the run game.  They'll have a really hard time punching it up the gut, but should find room on the edges.  The depth chart has Hamm fourth, but I do think the coaches plan to use him again.  And I think he'll outgain Shepherd.  Hopefully that's not a case of me predicting what I want to happen, because I'd love to see Hamm be the pleasant surprise of the season, not just the VMI game.

-- UVA pass offense vs. Pitt pass defense

Quarterback:
David Watford: 65/98, 66.3%; 481 yards, 3 TDs, 6 INTs; 4.91 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Jake McGee: 14 rec., 81 yards, 1 TD
Darius Jennings: 12 rec., 77 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
170.3 yards/game, 4.7 yards/attempt
123rd of 125 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

Pitt defense:
251 yards/game, 9.5 yards/attempt
119th of 125 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

Pillow fight!  The ACC's worst pass offense goes against its worst pass defense.  Or so it looks.  Actually I think the Panthers' pass defense will look better as the season goes on; it so happens that Duke and Florida State have passing games that will test any defense, and Pitt does have the ability to shut down lousy passing offenses, as they did to New Mexico.

A game against VMI doesn't tell you much, but it does give you this: there are certain things that if you don't see them against VMI, you never will.  An explosive passing offense is one of them.  David Watford simply needs experience before the passing game can consistently diversify its efforts.  Til then, this element of the game will be one where we just hope for good enough.

As for the opponent, the main concerns are Pitt's two defensive stars, Aaron Donald and Jason Hendricks.  Donald has four sacks this season and is basically Pitt's only pass rush - he'll be double- and maybe triple-teamed all day, and is the guy who our running backs (Parks, mainly, as the only experienced one) will need to keep their eye on in blocking.  Hendricks is a safety and a good one.

Otherwise, Pitt isn't too scary.  I don't think Watford will face much of a rush except up the middle, and Jameis Winston of FSU was able to have some scrambling success so hopefully Watford can do the same.  Pitt's corners got torched by Duke's receivers so ours should be able to find some room too..  Watford should be able to further improve his yards-per-attempt, but don't expect anything spectacular.  Because of the pressure up the middle but the likely lack thereof on the edges, I also think he'll find a way to scramble and maybe contribute three yards a carry to the run game.  If Fairchild calls some rollouts and bootlegs (which he hasn't yet, but hey) that could play right toward our possible strengths.

-- Pitt run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
James Conner: 47 carries, 326 yards, 6.9 ypc, 3 TDs
Isaac Bennett: 35 carries, 174 yards, 5.0 ypc, 2 TDs

Pitt offense:
184.33 yards/game, 5.17 yards/attempt
36th of 125 (national), 4th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
192.67 yards/game, 4.90 yards/attempt
103rd of 125 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

Still too early in the season for you to let these numbers cause you any panic.  New Mexico is awful, for one, and Duke sucks on defense too; Oregon is still messing up our own stats.  Nevertheless, Pitt's running game has shown some signs of life that folks didn't expect when Rushel Shell left the team.

Freshman RB James Conner has been the star for the Panthers, having big games against both UNM and Duke but being largely bottled up by FSU.  Isaac Bennett, other than a pretty good UNM game, doesn't really look like a tremendously improved back over last year.  Conner is the guy the Panthers are going to lean on; he's a big, powerful back at 6'2", 230 and will be a load to bring down.

The Pitt O-line took a hit in losing center Gabe Roberts for the game, though its a depth thing rather than losing a starter, as Artie Rowell had beaten him out for the starting job.  Pitt's interior line is respectable but not overpowering; it's a fairly even matchup in the trenches.

That the Hoos have placed Max Valles atop the depth chart at linebacker, though, is a vote of confidence in the front seven, or really, front six in the run game since Valles is there to rush the passer.  Daquan Romero and Henry Coley have done nice work, and I think you have to be impressed by the tackle totals along the defensive line (although admittedly somewhat inflated by VMI's horrible O-line.)  I think UVA will likely be able to make Bennett a non-factor, and Conner should find much less running room than he's been used to the past two games.

-- Pitt pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Tom Savage: 51/78, 65.4%; 861 yards, 9 TDs, 4 INTs; 11.04 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Devin Street: 17 rec., 387 yards, 2 TDs
Tyler Boyd: 16 rec., 314 yards, 4 TDs

Pitt offense:
289.7 yards/game, 11.0 yards/attempt
7th of 125 (national), 2nd of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
140.0 yards/game, 4.2 yards/attempt
2nd of 125 (national), 1st of 14 (ACC)

The contrast between this and the passing matchup on the other side of the field is almost comical.  Pitt's Tom Savage absolutely bombed Duke, racking up 424 passing yards and six TDs in just that one game.  I said before the season Pitt could be dangerous if they found a complement to Devin Street, and freshman Tyler Boyd is it.  Both of them have big-play ability and will be one of the season's biggest tests for our secondary, high praise considering we have to face Stefon Diggs and Sammy Watkins later on.

That said, Savage has a few obstacles of his own.  UVA has a whopping 23 pass breakups, a number that is not terribly inflated by the VMI game.  The Hoos have allowed 37 completions, so an enemy pass is almost as likely to be ruthlessly swatted to the ground as to be completed.  Brent Urban leads the team - and defensive linemen nationwide - with five breakups, and Demetrious Nicholson and Maurice Canady each have four.

The pass rush is still a question mark, though; most of our sacks came against VMI, so Eli Harold and the rest of the pass-rushing gang still has something to prove.  Jon Tenuta will use Max Valles as a pass-rusher to try and boost the pressure on Savage, who is the pocket-statue sort of quarterback, and an NFL-friendly 6'5", which could help to nullify the D-line's pass-swatting talents.

The entire game, in the end, may swing on how well the defense is able to slow down Street and Boyd.  I would say that if neither reaches 100 yards receiving, UVA has won the game.  UVA doesn't need to sack Savage for the pressure to work; Pitt is not a quick-hit offense so if they can simply keep Savage uncomfortable, they can disrupt the show.

-- Favorability ratings

UVA run offense: 4.5
UVA pass offense: 4
UVA run defense: 6
UVA pass defense: 5.5

Average: 5

-- Outlook

Simply put, this is one of the most intriguing matchups of the year.  Both teams have some pretty deep flaws.  We have a questionable offensive line going up against a wrecking ball of a defensive tackle and a quarterback whose decision-making has been questionable.  Pitt's defensive end lineup is a nuclear disaster, and their defense overall is a problem.  Both teams have their strengths: Pitt's DTs and pass offense, our pass defense.  I can't see Pitt winning this game if UVA is able to bottle up the Pitt receiving tandem, and UVA is dead in the water if they can't run the ball and loosen up Pitt's already-shaky pass defense.  This game just comes down to who can cover up their flaws the best.

-- Predictions

-- Daniel Hamm outgains Khalek Shepherd.

-- Watford manages about six yards per pass.

-- Watford also contributes at least 30 yards on the ground.

-- Aaron Donald and Eli Harold are the only players on either team to register a sack.

-- UVA is able to keep Pitt's running game in check, with no more than four yards a carry.

-- If both Tyler Boyd and Devin Street have fewer than 100 receiving yards apiece, UVA wins.

Final score: UVA 27, Pitt 23

Rest of the ACC:

Virginia Tech 17, Georgia Tech 10 - Thu. - Despite crushing adversity brought on by unconscionable and totally indefensible scheduling screwjobs, the Hokies overcame the terrible obstacles and stood tall in victory with a heroic, stirring, against-all-odds victory.

Miami @ South Florida - 12:00 - USF's giant-killing days are dead, so the Canes won't have much trouble here.  Back to the big three in Florida.

North Carolina vs. East Carolina - 12:30 - Sadly, the Heels don't play Western Carolina to complete the trifecta.

Duke vs. Troy - 3:00 - Really stupid fun fact: There are lots of teams whose common name is only four letters long (Utah, Iowa, Navy, etc.) but these are two of the only three whose names are just one syllable.  Guess the other one and win no prize at all.

Florida State @ Boston College - 3:30 - Truthfully, the schedule-makers were worse to BC than to VT this week, making them play FSU the week after playing USC.

NC State vs. Central Michigan - 3:30 - MAC snack.

Wake Forest @ Clemson - 3:30 - Wake cake.

Bye - Maryland

(Answer: Rice.)

game preview: VMI

Date/Time: Saturday, September 21; 3:30

TV: ESPN3

Record against the Keydets: 56-23-3

Last meeting: UVA 48, VMI 7; 9/25/10, Charlottesville

Last weekend: UVA bye; North Greenville 37, VMI 24

Line: UVA by 44

Injury report: N/A

Chances are, everything you need to know about VMI, you learned from the box score of the North Greenville game.  VMI is typically a lousy team for obvious recruiting-obstacles reasons, but even so they've generally been able to beat the D-II opponents their schedulers put in front of them.  Losing to one - getting creamed by one, actually - is the sort of inauspicious omen that says "this team might not win again all year."  But the games are played for a reason, and UVA is not in any position to take any opponent lightly, even a frosty cupcake like VMI.

-- UVA run offense vs. VMI run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 39 carries, 125 yards, 3.2 ypc, 1 TD
Taquan Mizzell: 13 carries, 30 yards, 2.3 ypc, 0 TDs

UVA offense:
116.5 yards/game, 2.88 yards/attempt
113th of 125 (national); 13th of 14 (ACC)

VMI defense:
206.3 yards/game, 5.16 yards/attempt
85th of 114 (national); 5th of 6 (Big South)

I have to admit, I'm a little surprised at how much the run game thus far has leaned on Kevin Parks.  I mean, Parks is a solid back, if he's ever given an inch of running room, which he has not, but I did think more work would've been handed to Khalek Shepherd and Taquan Mizzell by now.  But by their powers combined they have barely half the carries Parks does.

Not that they've shown they deserve a ton of work.  Mizzell hasn't gotten much room to maneuver either, and has done nothing spectacular in his nine carries.  Shepherd has one big run for 45 yards and has otherwise been equally bottled up.  Parks's 3.2 yards a carry - which is an awfully disappointing number - lead the team, minus the big Shepherd run.

VMI is another 3-4 team, but one with a horribly undersized defensive front.  Nose tackle Joe Nelson - a redshirt freshman - is 265 pounds.  The ends are smaller.  Regardless of what stunts and whatever else the VMI defense tries to run, the matchup against Morgan Moses will be patently unfair, and if UVA can't completely own the line of scrimmage then we are going to have issues all year long.

I would expect some redshirts to be burned along the O-line.  Yes, people hate seeing that, but if they're in the two-deep they gotta play, and the depth we have doesn't allow us the luxury of sitting the freshmen out.  Moses can't play every snap all season long.  In fact, those who stick around for the fourth quarter will get a UVA fan's first glimpse at four brand-new linemen: Olanrewaju, Smith, Matteo, and Mooney.

You have to assume that Parks won't be asked to be a workhorse, either.  My guess is that Shepherd and Mizzell will combine to easily surpass Parks's total carries, and Kye Morgan probably gets some burn, too.  This should be a successful day on the ground.  If it's not, you might be better off spending the season in a drunken haze.

-- UVA pass offense vs. VMI pass defense

Quarterback:
David Watford: 47/73, 64.4%; 275 yards, 1 TD, 4 INTs; 3.77 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Jake McGee: 11 rec., 62 yards, 0 TDs
Darius Jennings: 10 rec., 60 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
144.0 yards/game, 3.6 yards/attempt
125th of 125 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

VMI defense:
304.0 yards/game, 7.7 yards/attempt
105th of 114 (national), 6th of 6 (Big South)

Yes, those are some truly shit numbers we've put up there.  I think the coaches realize it, too; it is decidedly not an effective pass offense when your QB hits on almost two-thirds of his passes and has such a truly poor per-attempt average.  They've talked about opening it up some this week.

On the flip side, though, those VMI numbers are even worse.  They don't look that bad, but remember: not just one, but two of their games are against D-II competition (and they needed a last-minute goal-line stand to beat one of those teams), and the only reason the numbers aren't worse is because North Greenville eased off the gas.  At cornerback, VMI starts a redshirt freshman (the entire depth chart abounds with freshmen) and a 5'9" junior.  Watford will double his passing yards for the season if the coaches let him throw enough.  25 passes would about do it.

-- VMI run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Derrick Ziglar: 34 carries, 191 yards, 5.6 ypc, 1 TD
Deon Watts: 20 carries, 47 yards, 2.3 ypc, 0 TD

VMI offense:
68.3 yards/game, 2.9 yards/attempt
108th of 114 (national), 6th of 6 (Big South)

UVA defense:
268.5 yards/game, 5.77 yards/attempt
114th of 125 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

These numbers are not quite fair because Oregon.  This game should help fix them.  VMI has actually had some success on the ground, mainly when they hand off to Derrick Ziglar.  Deon Watts appears to have been replaced on the depth chart due to lack of production.  VMI's horrible numbers actually stem from their pitiful pass protection.

That said, there is no depth on the VMI O-line.  They do have a pair of massive, 325-pound tackles, but the backup right tackle is 6'2, 260.  So is Will Lucas, the starting center.  Just from that matchup alone, Brent Urban and the rest of the gang at DT should have a field day.  Ziglar has some talent - he's a bowling-ball style back who measures in at 5'9", 230 - but as eminent a rush defense as Richmond held him to 26 yards.  Ziglar's build is rare in D-II, but the Hoos should be able to contain him without much trouble.

-- VMI pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Eric Kordenbrock: 68/109, 62.4%; 818 yards, 6 TDs, 3 INTs; 7.5 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Derrick Ziglar: 13 rec., 164 yards, 1 TD
James Rogers: 9 rec., 105 yards, 1 TD

VMI offense:
272.7 yards/game, 7.5 yards/attempt
25th of 114 (national), 1st of 6 (Big South)

UVA defense:
191.0 yards/game, 5.5 yards/attempt
24th of 125 (national), 6th of 14 (ACC)

Largely out of necessity, VMI has thrown the ball a ton this season, especially against North Greenville; Eric Kordenbrock had 47 throws in that game.  Kordenbrock isn't a bad quarterback as I-AA signal-callers go, but he's also a big, tall statue (6'4", 220) with zilch running ability, which contributes to the poor pass protection he's been getting.

As mentioned, VMI's tackles are huge, so in the pass-rush department, I'd expect Jake Snyder to have a quiet day; Eli Harold off the edge could be interesting, though.  If those big guys can handle his speed, maybe Kordenbrock won't get killed on the blind side.  If not, it'll be an all-day kinda thing for Harold.  Urban is also going to have some fun going up against VMI's undersized interior; it's likely he'll have to be double teamed because putting his height against VMI's lack of it will result in plenty of swatted passes.  Lucky for VMI their QB is tall, but their passing game is also oriented largely to the middle of the field.  The leading receivers are RB Ziglar and slot receiver James Rogers, and tight end Mario Thompson is heavily involved, too.

The one matchup issue UVA might have is 6'5" outside receiver Sam Patterson.  But if he were fast, one, he'd average a lot more than 10.8 yards a catch, way at the bottom of that list for VMI, and two, he'd be playing I-A football.

Our secondary is going to have an athleticism advantage because every unit should have an athleticism advantage, but I'd say it's that pass rush that should make life miserable for VMI.  The DTs could well have a turkey shoot out there, and Harold has the potential to be a major X factor.

-- Favorability ratings

I had some trouble with these, because, look, things like our pass offense have really sucked so far.  But VMI is so .... bad.  This is still a new thing, so, still in need of calibration if you will, but let's try:

UVA run offense: 10
UVA pass offense: 9.5
UVA run defense: 10
UVA pass defense: 10

Average: 9.86

-- Outlook

It's hard to write one of these things without sounding arrogantly dismissive.  But VMI did lose to a D-II team.  The difference between D-II (36 scholarships) and I-AA (63) is much greater than that between I-AA and I-A (85).  And this wasn't just one bad game.  VMI struggled to beat Glenville State - a bad D-II team! - and was totally uncompetitive against Richmond.  They could neither move the ball nor stop Richmond, on a crappy rainy day, against the quarterback that came in third in the same QB competition where David Watford came in second in 2011 (as a true freshman.)  This is a worse VMI team than the one that lost 48-7 to a bad UVA team in 2010.  There's no reason at all this should be competitive.

-- Prediction summary:

-- Mizzell and Shepherd combine for at least five more carries than Parks.

-- Watford averages 10 yards per attempt, enough to double his seasonal passing yards if allowed to throw 28 times.

-- At least five new redshirts are burned, two on the O-line.

-- Defensive tackles account for at least two sacks.

-- So does Eli Harold.

-- Urban bats down at least two passes.

Final score: UVA 59, VMI 0

-- Rest of the ACC:

Clemson 26, NC State 14  - Thu. - Probably closer than it should've been, which could be a storm cloud for Clemson, but their defense was excellent.

North Carolina @ Georgia Tech - 12:00 - A big Coastal matchup that would take place later in the season if the ACC schedulers were smart.  I mean, at least in October.

Virginia Tech vs. Marshall - 12:00 - Tech's quest continues to find a defense they can move the ball against.

Wake Forest @ Army - 12:00 - Not remotely a guaranteed ACC win.

Pittsburgh @ Duke - 12:30 - Could already be a Bowl Eligibility Bowl.

Syracuse vs. Tulane - 12:30 - Second part of the epic ACC-CUSA matchups this week.

Maryland vs. West Virginia - 3:30 - A big chance to learn something about Maryland.

Florida State vs. Bethune-Cookman - 6:00 - Wildcats to the slaughter.

Miami vs. Savannah State - 7:00 - Likewise.

game preview: Oregon

Date/Time: Saturday, September 7; 3:30

TV: ABC or ESPN2 (see coverage map)

Record against the Ducks: 0-0

Last meeting: N/A

Last weekend: UVA 19, BYU 16; UO 66, Nich. St. 3

Line: Oregon by 23

Injury report: N/A

The second game of the Mike London era was a trip to Los Angeles, returning a visit to USC which they'd paid two seasons ago.  The Hoos were given no chance against the powerhouse Trojans; to the nation's surprise, UVA nearly pulled off the upset, and USC's win was greatly aided by a refereeing mistake so egregious that the Pac-10 suspended the crew.  The New London era has a similar challenge of its own in the form of the Oregon Ducks, who arrive in Charlottesville at the peak of their prowess.  UVA is probably doomed, but a lightning strike would be an instant rejuvenator for London's tenure and considerably raise the team's national profile.  Even a close loss would be a step in that direction.

-- UVA run offense vs. UO run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 20 carries, 65 yards, 3.3 ypc, 1 TD
Taquan Mizzell: 7 carries, 16 yards, 2.3 ypc, 0 TDs

UVA offense:
109 yards/game, 2.60 yards/attempt
101st of 126 (national), 11th of 14 (ACC)

UO defense:
87 yards/game, 2.35 yards/attempt
19th of 126 (national), 2nd of 12 (Pac-12)

These are the standard stats I use for every preview, but yeah, they're always a little skewed around this time of year, especially if one of the teams played a 1-10 I-AA team whose only 2012 win was against a D-II squad.  Yes, that's Nicholls.  We can safely take Oregon's stellar-looking numbers with a grain of salt.

Later on, that'll be a much smaller grain; here, Oregon's run defense is coming off a season in which they posted very average numbers, and is in some transition, personnel-wise.  Despite the low rushing totals for Nicholls, Oregon appeared occasionally vulnerable to the running skills of Nicholls's mobile quarterback, and allowed three yards a carry to their running back.  That would be a number worthy of a pat on the back against most I-A opponents; against the worst I-AA team you could find, that might just prove that UVA can find a little room.

Oregon looks like it has a pretty good linebacker in Derrick Malone, who made 11 stops last week and got his nose into the play fairly often off the bench last season.  Oregon's other linebackers, though, are less effective, and the Ducks lost a lot of talent to graduation last year.  Up front, the linemen are a mix of experience and highly touted youth, the latter exemplified by DT Arik Armstead, Oregon's top 2012 recruit.  Armstead, however, was nigh-invisible against Nicholls; the stars of the Oregon D-line were on the end, the spots occupied by Tony Washington and Taylor Hart.  Hart is a legitimately excellent and disruptive SDE who will be a tremendously difficult matchup for our tight ends and will probably have to be doubled on most plays.  Any matchups between him and Morgan Moses will be crucial, and highly determinant of UVA's success or failure.

Last week, UVA was unable to consistently establish a run, but did open enough holes to offer hope for the future.  Oregon is a more traditional 4-3 than what BYU brought to the table, and the commentators correctly noted that having Luke Bowanko and Morgan Moses on the same side gives UVA at least one side they can run to with confidence, until the rest of the line establishes itself.  Oregon offers a little bit of a pick-your-poison, since Malone is on the weak side and Hart the strong side; these are shaping up as two of Oregon's best defenders, and Washington as a WDE is also a solid player.

At any rate, I like UVA's chances of moving the ball some.  Probably more than they did against BYU, since, at least for the early portions of the game, UVA will be acclimated to the level of competition.  I think at least two of UVA's three backs, Kevin Parks being one of them, will add 10-15 yards to their totals from last weekend.  We're not talking anything spectacular yet, but the whole world knows that "controlling the ball" is a key for UVA, and this is the most favorable matchup of the four.

-- UVA pass offense vs. UO pass defense

Quarterback:
David Watford: 18/32, 56.3%; 114 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; 3.56 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Darius Jennings: 7 rec., 62 yards, 1 TD
Zachary Swanson: 3 rec, 21 yards, 0 TD

UVA offense:
114 yards/game, 3.6 yards/attempt
116th of 126 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)

UO defense:
256 yards/game, 5.1 yards/attempt
33rd of 126 (national), 5th of 12 (Pac-12)

For obvious reasons, teams pass the ball a lot against Oregon.  Only five teams (two of which were Oklahoma State and Stanford) faced more pass attempts than the Ducks last season.  According to the silly per-game stats that announcers insist on using, they're a pedestrian pass defense, but they did a much better job than that last season, ending up 7th in the country.

Oregon boasts a pair of excellent cornerbacks in Terrance Mitchell and Ifo Ekpre-Olomu.  Mitchell is very good, but Ekpre-Olomu is the star, earning first-team all-conference honors last season, and with good reason: he picked off four passes and broke up 16 more.  Safeties Avery Patterson and Brian Jackson are high-quality players too; Patterson, playing free safety, returned two interceptions to the house last season.  Altogether it's one of the finest secondaries in the country.  Additionally, SLB Boseko Lokombo plays a pretty good pass defense and intercepted two passes of his own last year.

This is where those defensive ends come into play too: Taylor Hart is a nasty pass rusher, with eight sacks last season.  Tony Washington is liable to pick up quite a few as well; in general, this is a front seven that does better when they're attacking the passer than in the run game.

UVA's receivers have some redemption to do after last week.  Darius Jennings had a decent game, but Tim Smith decidedly did not.  This will be a tough group to do it against, and if David Watford thought last week was tough, he's got a whole new challenge in front of him.  UVA is going to need a couple big plays here if they can get them, but will probably have to rely on dump-offs again and is not likely to consistently find success.  Last week the tight ends combined for six catches; I'd look for that kind of production again, as well as a strong appearance from the running backs in this regard, mostly as safety valves.

-- UO run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
De'Anthony Thomas: 18 carries, 128 yards, 7.1 ypc, 2 TDs
Byron Marshall: 8 carries, 124 yards, 15.5 ypc, 1 TD

UO offense:
500 yards/game, 11.11 yards/attempt
1st of 126 (national), 1st of 12 (Pac-12)

UVA defense:
187 yards/game, 3.53 yards/attempt
51st of 126 (national), 7th of 14 (ACC)

Yes, the 500 yards Oregon's rushing offense racked up last week came against a terrible opponent.  No, you're not allowed to care: despite losing Chip Kelly to the NFL, Oregon is still Oregon.  Fundamentally, they're not actually that different from Georgia Tech: read-option plays are the bread-and-butter of the offense, and they pass only once you've been sucked in to try and defend the run.

Oregon is more balanced than GT is, though (not saying much, there) and, of course, the thing that makes their offense put up so many gaudy numbers is the no-huddle system they run.  Yes, UVA got a little practice defending the no-huddle last week.  Now they get to try their hand at defending against a team that can actually execute it.  UVA looked pretty good last week, but Oregon's no-huddle is a well-oiled machine with way better athletes running it.

Oregon's option is so dangerous because the guy in charge of it, quarterback Marcus Mariota, is such a dangerous athlete.  He's a big, long-striding runner and every bit as capable of breaking a long one as primary running back De'Anthony Thomas, a lightning-quick scatback who's been playing second fiddle for two years but is more than ready for first chair.  Oregon always keeps a full stable of backs that can break a big play and uses them heavily, so even with Thomas out of the game, the situation changes little.

The O-line is a tough nut to crack, too.  Hroniss Grasu is a Rimington watch-list center who jumped immediately into the starting lineup as a true freshman; he's now a junior.  Tackles Tyler Johnstone and Jake Fisher are athletic and youngish but very talented; if there's any hole on the line, it might - might - be at guard, where the starters are upperclassmen (Manu Grieg is a senior and Hamani Stevens is an old junior a couple years removed from his Mormon mission) but relatively inexperienced.

Many of the principles of defending the no-huddle will remain the same from last week to this, so the experience is not without value.  However, the defense has to limit big plays; Oregon's 40+ point games come when the option by itself is all they need to gash defenses for 50 yards or more.  The tackles must beat their man inside, and the linebackers have to run, fast and at the right gap.  Eli Harold has a chance to be a game-changer with his athleticism, as does Demeitre Brim; their speed is going to be crucial to match the pace at which Oregon will move.

-- UO pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Marcus Mariota: 12/21, 57.1%; 234 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs; 11.14 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Josh Huff: 5 rec., 118 yards, 0 TDs
Bralon Addison: 2 rec., 42 yards, 1 TD

UO offense:
272 yards/game, 10.5 yards/attempt
19th of 126 (national), 2nd of 12 (Pac-12)

UVA defense:
175 yards/game, 4.4 yards/attempt
16th of 126 (national), 2nd of 14 (ACC)

Jon Tenuta's defense is predicated on putting the cornerbacks on an island so that the linebackers and even safeties can be used in the most aggressive manner possible.  Safety blitz woo!  That's more or less how you have to attack Oregon's offense: push the button and pray.

As a passer, Mariota was highly efficient last year, but not a big-play quarterback.  Big plays come in the running game.  Oregon passes to keep you honest, not necessarily because they hope you forgot about their receivers the way GT does.  Josh Huff is an accomplished receiver, but without the gaudy numbers of the Oregon running backs.  The Oregon receiving corps in general is fairly deep, and Mariota spreads the ball around so that nobody (besides Huff, sorta) dominates the receptions category.

Possibly contrary to expectations of a new-wave speed-based offense, Oregon does use a tight end, though often more as an H-back who can carry the ball and catch it, too.  The primary threat in this regard is tight end Colt Lyerla.  Adding to the danger factor and versatility, De'Anthony Thomas is a big receiving threat; more so, in fact, than Oregon's previous feature backs, Kenjon Barner and LaMichael James.  Thomas led the Ducks in receptions last year despite being only third in carries (behind Barner and Mariota.)

There are, of course, obvious differences between that GT triple-option and Oregon's style, but there's a big similarity in how to beat them: have your cornerbacks dominate the one-on-one coverage and free up your strong safety to crash the line and find the ball.  I like that ours are up to the task; Huff is a decent receiver but not a dominant one, and our cornerbacks may well have the advantage in the matchup over their receivers.  Mariota is very good at taking what you give him in the passing game, but UVA will take it if his passes stay underneath.

-- Favorability ratings

A new thing I'm introducing this year. This is a 0-10 scale; 5 means evenly balanced, 0 means we're totally screwed, and 10 means the other guy is.

UVA run offense: 5
UVA pass offense: 2.5
UVA run defense: 2
UVA pass defense: 4.5

Average: 3.5

-- Outlook

Things could be better, for sure.  Even in those areas of the game where we match up best, we don't match up especially well.  To win, UVA must pound, pound, pound the ball, and find ways to reel off seven-minute drives that end in a score; they must be able to leave the cornerbacks all on their own and be able to consistently keep eight in the box; and they must, obviously, win the turnover battle and avoid giving up big plays.  Oregon's pass defense seems likely to swallow up David Watford, especially if our receivers can't help him out any.  There are things that UVA can exploit to keep it close, but the real challenge is being able to do that all game long and hold off the dogs in the areas where Oregon obviously dominates - also all game long.  If UVA can simply beat the spread, it should be an eye-opener.

-- Prediction summary

-- At least two of UVA's running backs, one of which is Kevin Parks, will improve on their BYU rushing total by at least 10 yards.

-- UVA's TEs and RBs combine for more catches than their WRs.

-- Watford throws more INTs than TDs.

-- Oregon breaks at least one TD run of at least 60 yards.

-- Oregon has more than twice as many rush yards as passing yards.

-- Mariota is the only Oregon QB to throw a pass.  I have to give at least that much to our defense; at least we'll keep it close enough to keep the scrubs out of the game.

-- Final score: UO 47, UVA 21

-- Rest of the ACC:

Wake Forest @ Boston College - Fri., 8:00 - We'll quickly find out if my preseason faith in BC is misplaced or not.

Miami vs. Florida - 12:00 - Florida ground out a victory last week, and could be ripe for an upset in this underplayed rivalry.

North Carolina vs. Middle Tennessee - 12:30 - With all the talk about Jadeveon Clowney being gassed, you'd think it was UNC dominating last week's game.  It wasn't.

Clemson vs. South Carolina State - 12:30 - Clemson takes on the Walkin' Bulldogs after dispatching the regular ones.

Virginia Tech vs. Western Carolina - 1:30 - The Catamounts use the same purple and gold colors as James Madison.  I don't bring this up for any particular reason, really.

Maryland vs. Old Dominion - 4:00 - Root for everyone against Maryland, even those teams which aspire to rise up and be a major threat to our in-state recruiting success.

Duke @ Memphis - 4:30 - Memphis is kind of a perennially lousy football team that sits in fertile recruiting ground and therefore has little excuse to be that way.

Syracuse @ Northwestern - 6:00 - This game probably won't be any easier than the Penn State one for Cuse, and might be harder.

NC State vs. Richmond - 6:00 - Go pick on the I-AA teams from your own state.

Bye weeks: GT, Pitt