twenty-one

National champ-peen-ship, y'all.  I'm long since on the record as admitting I don't get around to watching nearly as much UVA soccer as I'd like.  (I've considered remedying this next year by ignoring football, but that'd be all talk and no action on that front.)  In fact this season I've seen exactly two soccer games: the women's semifinal against Texas A&M and the men's national title against UCLA.  I had to miss the men's semis and women's finals for reasons of State.

It didn't take me long to decide I hated the announcers.  I wasn't even paying attention to them in the A&M game so I have no idea, but it was only about 20 minutes into the UCLA game before I decided the announcing was a zero on a scale of Pam Ward to Keith Jackson.  Their contempt for UVA's game plan was plain as day and got plainer as the first half wore on.  Although I did enjoy their description of the UVA strategy as "cynical."

Guess which strategy UVA went with?

You can't totally fault them, if the idea is that games should always be exciting shootouts.  But UVA came into the game 111th in the country in scoring average.  One-hundred and eleventh, it's not an extra-1 typo.  In only one tournament game did the Hoos score more than once.  UCLA came in with only one tournament game of fewer than three goals.  So it should be no surprise that Gelnovatch decided not to run 'n' gun with the Bruins.  "The beautiful game" it was not, but Gelnovatch isn't paid to entertain the pundits.

And frankly, it worked to almost complete perfection.  Actual perfection would've been a 1-0 win with the one goal probably coming off of some kind of set piece.  You don't counterattack to try and score, because that would expose you; you counterattack with the aim of getting a corner kick.  If it doesn't go in, which it usually doesn't but it's more than worth a try, bunker back down and try again.  I laughed when halftime rolled around and the announcers said UCLA had to be very pleased with the first half and then both coaches said the first 45 went completely UVA's way.  I might've considered it a Bruin domination, if UCLA had generated more than the occasional chance, but UVA's keeper Calle Brown was barely tested.  Owning the possession battle 45 yards out is one thing; it's another thing entirely to dictate the game.  UVA did so without having the ball.

The second half - a little more pressure, the Bruins clearly took their coaching to heart and were less patient, more attacking, but also a great deal more frustrated.  UCLA's Edgar Contreras ought to have been red-carded for a head-butt, but I can't completely fault the refs as the camera was right on it in real time and I still missed it until the replay.  But it was a clear sign that UCLA was used to being able to break down a defense, and UVA's brick wall was getting to them.

The game is likely to attract precisely zero new fans to the game of soccer, but just look at all the bothers I give.  You know I love me some pack-line defense, and so, apparently, does George Gelnovatch.  Tony Bennett wins basketball games 45-26, but he wins basketball games.  At the end of the day, here's the stat that matters most: 21.  And the one that matters second-most is 0.

*******************************************

The first major bit of football attrition hit last week when Eli Harold declared for the draft.  That makes two; David Watford also decided to transfer, but the effect of that will be almost nil.  Except to eliminate bizarre message board posts wondering why he's on the field in any capacity at all, as if not being a good quarterback is the same as not being a good receiver.

UVA dodged a bullet when Max Valles announced that he'd be returning next year, quashing rumors to the contrary.  Smart - Valles would've been going almost entirely on physical attributes.  A year of opening some scouts' eyes would help him.  Harold, though he could benefit from another year, is probably in good shape anyway.  He showed this year that he can defend the run and isn't just a one-dimensional pass rusher.  Once he gets in front of scouts at the combine, he should make an appearance on draft boards and could easily be a second or third round pick; his ceiling, if the workouts look good, would be the low first.

As for our defense, it's a fairly major hit, but there's a long-run silver lining: next year, Harold and the Moores (Michael and Kwontie) would once again have dominated the playing time.  Great, because they'll do well, but no experience for the boatload of guys behind them.  Trent Corney should start off as the third DE, but there's a trio of redshirt freshmen who will get a chance to make a wave or two as well.

*******************************************

And the second major bit of football attrition is on the coaching staff, as Scott Wachenheim is off to VMI to play head coach.  Good for him - it's his first head-coaching gig, though he did have the title of OC and assistant HC at Liberty for a few years.  There can't be a tougher place in the world to win at football than VMI, except maybe the Citadel.  From his perspective, this is definitely striking while the iron is hot - the chances that most of this staff is out of a job next year are awfully high, and you might as well grab a promotion while it's there.  Even if London was on rock-solid ground, I think he'd go anyway, but still.

Wachenheim leaves with one of the most mixed legacies I've ever seen for an assistant coach.  He was vilified at times for the play of the O-line, and I think at least partially deservedly so.  But he leaves on a positive note, having gained a lot of credit for making the O-line not be a total black hole of suck despite being held together with Scotch tape and having to use 260-pound converted DE (or TE or whatever) Jack English as a left tackle.  And I think also deservedly so.

It leaves UVA with two openings to fill, including the impending (or already-occurred) retirement of Tom O'Brien, whose UVA career was basically a dud.  There's an inexplicable level of support for Ron Mattes, who was here like, a year, and performed no miracles.  He'll be here as soon as Bill Musgrave comes back, I'm sure.  A much more likely name, and these tea leaves sure read awfully clearly, thanks to Streaking the Lawn's Tweety account, is current Edmonton Eskimos O-line coach Jonathan Himebauch.

*******************************************

For lack of anything to do in this basketball wilderness, I put together another season sim, since it had been a couple weeks and stuff happened.  You can find it below and on the original season sim post, for easier comparison to the previous version.

NC State and Notre Dame are on the rise; both won an early-season ACC game against Wake and FSU, respectively, and ND has been handling a lot of business as well.  NC State, not so much, but then, Wofford is actually awfully highly-ranked for a SoCon team.

Being as UVA has also been handling business, the Hoos leapfrogged Louisville, which itself didn't exactly fare badly, just not as well as UVA.  Maryland and VCU are both higher-ranked than all but five ACC teams, and UVA crushed both on the road.  It's becoming clear that there's a top three in this league, and as such, the race for the top seed has obvious huge implications.

breakdown

I think it's interesting that, sometimes, a seemingly unremarkable play catches the eye of a lot of different people, all independent of each other.  On third-and-18 on UVA's opening drive (an ominous phrase in and of itself) Greyson Lambert threw a screen to Kevin Parks that picked up two yards.  Really explosive offense, this.

I decided, for reasons unknown to myself, to rewind and see what had happened; perhaps the play looked like it should have picked up a great deal more.  Perhaps I was just perturbed, which would be understandable given that our opening salvo exploded in the breech.  Upon a second look, it was easy to see what had happened: Conner Davis whiffed a block, badly.

At least one game thread picked up on that fact too, and quickly; the play became a matter of discussion to the extent that a game thread allows.  Even more interestingly, eminent Sabre philosopher JHoo picked up on it too, and provided one small note that I missed on my own reviewing:

So plenty of folks did their job well … … but guard Conner Davis, who had responsibility for the outside man on the play – here, cornerback D.J. White – broke one of those little rules on screen passes: he looked back to watch the pass and see the completion.

I'm normally very loath to copy and paste paywalled stuff, but there's a point to be made here.

A third look at the play confirms it completely.  Davis had eyes only for the backfield; when he turned around after the catch, he found a defender flying past him.

Think about the implications of this.  Consider:

-- Davis is not only a fifth-year senior, but also the most experienced player on his unit.
-- This is a big game.  The players know the deal when it comes to bowl eligibility, as well as their coach's job situation.  And they happen to really like their coach and want to keep him around.
-- It's the third play of the game.  Everyone's fresh.  Fatigue is not a thing right now.
-- It's early, so we're almost certainly on a script here.  This play has been practiced a hundred times and the players know it's coming.

A fifth-year senior doesn't have the mental discipline to carry out a simple assignment.  That's a sad commentary.

That is not to single out Conner Davis.  The point is: if this is the case with our fifth-year seniors, it's the case all up and down the board.  Attention to detail waved bye-bye to Mike London ages ago, assuming the twain ever met.  And if it's foreign to the head coach, it's not getting passed on to the team.  This explains London's puzzling approach to clock management.  (Why didn't he take a timeout when GT faced 3rd-and-23 at the end of the first half?  It probably didn't even occur to him.)  This explains (in a blast from the past) how it's possible that London can make a big deal out of accountability in a press conference, and then forget to remove a player from kickoff duties whose bonehead kickoff penalty cost his team three points.

You might say it's unfair to extrapolate a whole huge generalization like that out of one play, but it's not like there isn't a mountain of evidence of London's failure to instill any mental discipline in himself or his team.  And the end-of-half play provided another example of the same.  Let's break down this play.

First off, some perspective on how hideously badly this play was executed.  UVA sent three receivers downfield and left seven men back in protect.  GT rushed three.  Four seconds after the snap, GT defensive end KeShun Freeman is swiping the ball out of Lambert's hands.

Seven on three and we can't protect the QB for five seconds.  That is pitiful.  The play starts with Zach Swanson lined up as an H-back, and in motion from left to right, likely because GT has overloaded the right side with defenders and is showing blitz on that side while the linebacker on his side is backing off.  Swanson is supposed to handle Freeman until the cavalry arrives in the form of Ryan Doull, pulling around from left to right as if it were a run play.  Swanson whiffs, badly, jumping outside while Freeman jumps inside.  Fortunately, Doull arrives just in time to give Freeman a shove that uses his own momentum to carry him well past the QB.  Swanson sees this and turns upfield, apparently seeing if there are any delayed rushers.  Finding that eight men have dropped into coverage, he spends the rest of the play looking a bit lost.

Doull's shove has taken Freeman out of the play momentarily.  That's enough for Doull, who decides the play is over, and starts spectating.  Freeman, of course, does not oblige, and Doull is just in time to gather up the ball from the ground (and earn an attaboy from the announcers for a "heads-up play", which would've been nice if it were true.)

Doull's a third-year player, and older than most, having taken a post-grad year as well.  Quitting on a play - it's just an inexcusable lack of sharpness from someone with his experience.  But it's fruitless to direct your anger at Doull.  This is the attitude that has permeated the whole team.  How can we expect the players to be mentally accountable if the head coach doesn't demand it?  For every such event easily spotted on TV, you can bet there are ten or fifteen more that are impossible to see.

It's hard to imagine a coach less interested in attention to detail than London is, which means the next coach will likely demand more of it than now, which means the players are in for a rude awakening when he shows up.  It might not be fun for them at first, but the end result will be a lot more watchable.

****************************

Quick brief things:

-- Some people are bellyaching about David Watford being in the game at receiver while Jamil Kamara languishes on the bench.  Oh please.  Nobody has any damn clue what Kamara is doing or not doing in order to not earn playing time, and the fact that London does actually seem to demand some kind of minimum standard of behavior or knowledge of the offense or something in order to earn your way onto the field - that does not register on the list of things to complain about.  You actually find people bringing up how bad he was as a quarterback, as if that somehow affects his ability to stick his hands out and hold on to a flying football.

-- If I'm London, I don't queue up one inch of game film on Florida State.  What good is preparation - take it from a 1% to a 2% chance to win that game?  Just punt that game - the path to a bowl game is much easier through Miami and VT, and hyper-preparation for the latter is not something I'd be against.

Prediction summary:

- Kevin Parks runs for 120 yards.  My God, not even close.  And no, being down 14-0, 21-7 in the first quarter is emphatically not a reason to abandon the run.  Maybe the fact that it wasn't working would've been a reason, but going pass-happy because of a two-TD deficit in the first half is pure panic.

- Keeon Johnson has a big day, which these days means four or more catches.  No, but he was certainly targeted more than often enough to succeed.

- UVA's season average for rushing yards allowed per attempt jumps at least a quarter-yard.  Remarkably, no.  I'm impressed.  It was very close, but didn't make it.  This is the point where I single out Max Valles for at least one ridiculously good play in which he got in position to discourage an option pitch and then ate up the quarterback.  Who the hell defends both options all by his own self?  Valles, that's who.  It was the football equivalent of Akil Mitchell's brilliant play on Jabari Parker from the ACC CG - you know the one.  Only, better.

- Lambert throws at least two more picks, one of which isn't his fault.  Tossing up a lame duck of a throw because he's being crushed by a pass rusher certainly qualifies.

Season prediction stats:

17-for-45 on specifics (38%)
5-3 straight up
4-2-1 ATS

game preview: Virginia Tech

Date/Time: Saturday, November 30; 3:30

TV: ESPNUVA

Line: VT by 13

Record against the Hokies: 37-52-5

Last meeting: VT 17, UVA 14; 11/24/12, Blacksburg

Last weekend: Miami 45, UVA 26; VT bye

Injury report: (too early)

How bad is it?  In this day and age where players can find bulletin board material in every corner of a sports page, the Hokie players decided to come right out and provide all UVA could handle.  Brutal honesty pervades the article, the only lies coming before the word "but" in every Hokie quote.**  And why shouldn't they?  They wouldn't say it if they were even the tiniest bit afraid they would lose.  I'd call it overconfidence, but there's nothing "over" about it.

-- UVA run offense vs. VT run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 210 carries, 926 yards, 4.4 ypc, 11 TDs
Khalek Shepherd: 51 carries, 304 yards, 6.0 ypc, 1 TD

UVA offense:
160.91 yards/game, 3.83 yards/attempt
91st of 125 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)

VT defense:
103.27 yards/game, 2.94 yards/attempt
4th of 125 (national), 1st of 14 (ACC)

Remember how I've been saying that really good defensive tackles will murder our offensive line, every time?  And how that comes true pretty much always?  Teams with one good DT, like Aaron Donald of Pitt, have had very little trouble imposing their will.

Tech so happens to have two really good DTs.  You don't usually find DTs so high on the tackles list; Luther Maddy and Derrick Hopkins are 4th and 6th, respectively.  Third tackle Nigel Williams has 13 tackles, 7 of which are for loss.  VT also rotates three defensive ends with impunity, and brings two top-quality linebackers in Jack Tyler and Tariq Edwards.  It's a really aggressive defense that knows what the hell its doing.

The upshot is that the run game is going to go completely and utterly nowhere.  Kevin Parks needs 74 yards to reach 1,000 for the season, and I'd be surprised to see him get half that.  I'd be surprised to see the whole team reach that number.  End of story.

-- UVA pass offense vs. VT pass defense

Quarterback:
David Watford: 231/404, 57.2%; 2,080 yards, 8 TDs, 15 INTs; 5.15 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Jake McGee: 39 rec., 330 yards, 2 TDs
Darius Jennings: 36 rec., 319 yards, 3 TDs

UVA offense:
215.1 yards/game, 5.1 yards/attempt
125th of 125 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

VT defense:
164.9 yards/game, 6.2 yards/attempt
15th of 125 (national), 2nd of 14 (ACC)

London promises that both Watford and Greyson Lambert will get to play this week.  I can't tell whether that means he's decided at long last to go back to the QB rotation or whether he means he already figures the game will be out of hand enough to get away with it.  I suspect it'll be more like giving Watford a much quicker hook, which it's about time for.  I know I said I wanted the QB merry-go-round to end - we all did - but that didn't mean I wanted the coaches to start digging once they hit rock bottom under center.

Neither quarterback is going to be successful.  VT has a whole bunch of guys who can get to the pocket and a pretty good secondary.  Brandon Facyson turned out to be a damn good cornerback when forced to step in for Antone Exum in the starting lineup.  Kendall Fuller is as advertised, too.  No reason to expect our receivers to be open.  Jake McGee can probably find a way to make some plays, but at this point the only WR I have much confidence in is Keeon Johnson; his size might provide some opportunity, although to counter that, Facyson is a pretty big cornerback himself.

Watford threw three picks against Miami; frankly I'd be terribly surprised to see our QBs combine for any fewer than that.  And I'd be surprised if they didn't have mouthfuls of turf every other play; just pencil in a minimum of four sacks for the VT defense.  Moving the ball will be close to impossible this week.  We make it terribly hard on ourselves; now we're facing a defense uniquely able to make it even harder.

-- VT run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Trey Edmunds: 155 carries, 582 yards, 3.8 ypc, 10 TDs
J.C. Coleman: 61 carries, 205 yards, 3.4 ypc, 0 TDs

VT offense:
117.09 yards/game, 3.12 yards/attempt
115th of 125 (national), 12th of 14

UVA defense:
174.73 yards/game, 4.49 yards/attempt
84th of 125 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)

Hey, cool - something we do better than Tech.  Their usual inability to put a run game together to help out Logan Thomas is a big part of the reason for their late-season ACC slide.  Boston College and Maryland - decent but not exactly paragons of brilliant defense - held them to 55 and 54 yards on the ground, respectively.  This, naturally, has forced Thomas to win games with his arm - a dicey proposition.

Thomas and Trey Edmunds carry the running game, with J.C. Coleman providing a change of pace.  Tech's O-line problems are coming home to roost, though; it's just not a very good one, and they haven't been able to open a lot of running room.  If there's one matchup in this whole wretched game where UVA has an advantage, it's Brent Urban vs. Whoever Blocks Him.  And with some pretty good linebackers still running around, I like our chances to at least not fall completely flat on our face here.

Then again, you don't get to 2-9 without failing to live up to a few expectations along the way.  VT has been pretty impotent on the ground at times, but they've also had some successes, and against teams much better than ours.  The Miami game is one.  While I'd expect some stretches of reasonable success and maybe even a forced punt or two, don't go expecting this portion of the game to be four quarters of defensive dominance.

-- VT pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Logan Thomas: 211/362, 58.3%; 2,632 yards, 15 TDs, 12 INTs; 7.27 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Willie Byrn: 46 rec., 598 yards, 2 TDs
Demetri Knowles: 39 rec., 518 yards, 3 TDs

VT offense:
241.5 yards/game, 7.3 yards/attempt
64th of 125 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
232.5 yards/game, 7.2 yards/attempt
74th of 125 (national), 12th of 14 (ACC)

I really think this will have very little to do with our defense, with one variable to be discussed in a bit.  The point is, Logan Thomas's performances vary astoundingly from one game to the next.  He was great against Miami, UNC, and GT.  He was pathetic against Marshall, Duke, and Alabama.  Thomas has trended somewhat upwards as the season goes on, but still.

The variable, of course, is that he'll get to throw against a defense missing the national interceptions leader for a half.  By the time Anthony Harris gets back, the game is likely to be out of hand, so it's a big deal.  Harris and Demetrious Nicholson are more than arguably the two most talented players in the secondary, so Thomas's degree of difficulty is significantly lessened.

Fortunately, his weapons are not tremendously frightening.  VT's receivers are good but not great, with Willie Byrn coming largely out of nowhere to be the team's receptions leader.  Thomas also leans on redshirt freshman Joshua Stanford, who could develop into a very productive player later in his career, and Demetri Knowles rounds out his top three targets.  D.J. Coles is a big and tall possession and red-zone target as well.

Using three- and four-wide sets is something I'd expect to see out of Tech; it'll severely test our depleted secondary and spread the field for their running game besides.  There have been isolated successes at times in defending the pass, but the strategy by and large will be to hope for one of Thomas's bad games.

-- Favorability ratings

UVA run offense: 1
UVA pass offense: 0
UVA run defense: 5
UVA pass defense: 3.5

Average: 2.375

-- Outlook

Yeah, right.  Look, VT is a flawed team, but only on offense.  There are certain ways to imagine the shocker of all time, here, but when's the last time this 2013 UVA team ever successfully executed whatever followed the phrase "if we can just...."??  Whatever good the defense does will be undone and then some by paralyzing offensive ineptitude, which will include giving up touchdowns directly as well as the gift of short fields as well.  Do yourself a favor: Find a Saturday matinee movie.

-- Prediction summary

-- The entire UVA running game fails to gain 75 yards, sacks not included.

-- The UVA quarterbacks combine for at least three INTs.

-- And get sacked at least four times.

-- VT's defense scores at least one touchdown.

-- Logan Thomas's single-game passer rating is better than his season average of 126.4.

Final score: VT 31, UVA 3

-- Rest of the ACC

Miami @ Pittsburgh - Fri. 3:30 - Miami tries to keep its outside shot at a Coastal title alive.  Since they need us to win for that to happen, they'd probably be psychologically better off losing so they don't spend the next 24 hours with false hopes.

Florida State @ Florida - 12:00 - The penultimate hurdle for FSU's BCS CG hopes.

Duke @ North Carolina - 12:00 - If Duke wins, they become the ultimate hurdle.

Wake Forest @ Vanderbilt - 12:21 - 12:20 was just too early to expect fans to show up.

Maryland @ NC State - 12:30 - You can root for NC State because their opponent is Maryland, or you can root for Maryland so we'll have company in ACC Winless Land.

Georgia Tech vs. Georgia - 3:30 - This is the most evenly matched this game has been in years.

Boston College @ Syracuse - 3:30 - Cuse tries to give the ACC its 11th bowl-eligible team.

Clemson @ South Carolina - 7:00 - A win could put Clemson solidly into the BCS as an at-large team - the obstacle being the number of scrub-conference autobids that are likely.

**Seriously, these guys are some morons.  Logan Thomas: "I don't think anyone thinks they're better than anyone else.  I think they think they're better than us.  But really we're better than them."  Jack Tyler: "I don't wish ill on anyone.  I wish ill on UVA."  Little Shaney gets in on the dumb-hypocrite action in another article, too.  Skool is grate!

game preview: Miami

Date/Time: Saturday, November 23; 12:00

TV: ESPNUVA

Line: Miami by 20

Record against the Canes: 5-5

Last meeting: UVA 41, Miami 40; 11/10/12, Charlottesville

Last weekend: UVA bye; Duke 48, Miami 30

Injury report:

Virginia:

OUT - OL George Adeosun, CB Demetrious Nicholson, TE Mario Nixon, WR Canaan Severin, S Wil Wahee

DOUBTFUL - None

QUESTIONABLE - None

PROBABLE - CB Maurice Canady, CB Kelvin Rainey, DT Brent Urban

Miami:

OUT - DB Artie Burns, WR Philip Dorsett, LB Alex Figueroa, RB Duke Johnson, OL Hunter Knighton

DOUBTFUL - None

QUESTIONABLE - None

PROBABLE - None

(As with Georgia Tech, I'm quite sure that Miami is perfectly healthy aside from the players who can't go at all.  No bumps, bruises, or sprains to be found.)

So I guess I have to go write about football some more.  I was sort of enjoying the little hiatus.  That's only half a joke.  This has been the kind of season that really makes you question your involvement in the team and wondering if your Saturdays wouldn't be better spent doing almost anything else.  You'll forget about all that next August, of course, but for now, sanity and happiness dictate that you spend the time putting up the Christmas lights or something.

-- UVA run offense vs. Miami run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 184 carries, 796 yards, 4.3 ypc, 10 TDs
Khalek Shepherd: 47 carries, 267 yards, 5.7 ypc, 1 TD

UVA offense:
152.7 yards/game, 3.67 yards/attempt
98th of 125 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)

Miami defense:
172.5 yards/game, 4.19 yards/attempt
67th of 125 (national), 11th of 14 (ACC)

I suppose if there's any drama remaining in this season, Kevin Parks's quest for 1,000 yards might provide some.  He's 204 yards away with two games left, so it's not totally out of reach.  It's going to be hard, though; VT's defense is VT's defense, and Miami's isn't too shabby either.  It's a fairly remarkable stat that the 11th-best run defense in the conference is just a shade outside the top half nationally.  (And the conference's 10th-best is well inside it.)

Miami hadn't allowed a game of over 200 rushing yards to a non-Georgia Tech team until just last week, when Duke shredded them.  Even if Duke is 8-2, nobody wants to allow that kind of performance against them, so this might have the makings of a classic motivated rebound game.

Leading the defense is linebacker Denzel Perryman, with 91 tackles this season; another linebacker, Jimmy Gaines, is second with 64.  But the guy who probably presents the most threat to UVA's porous offensive line is defensive end Shayon Green, who has 7.5 run-game TFLs.  He'll likely present a particular threat to David Watford's running attempts.

So I don't expect to see much room.  Consider the Duke game a blip; that game alone caused the Canes to drop, like, 30-odd places in the national run-defense rankings.  (Thus illustrating the dangers of relying too heavily on them, even this late in the season.)  The UVA run game is a little better than it appears, because Watford is often sacked and has poor running instincts.  Handing it off has always been a more productive play.  Still, I'd be surprised to see Parks top 70 yards.

-- UVA pass offense vs. Miami pass defense

Quarterback:
David Watford: 221/379, 58.3%; 1,974 yards, 7 TDs, 12 INTs; 5.21 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Jake McGee: 36 rec., 305 yards, 2 TDs
Kevin Parks: 34 rec., 305 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
212.6 yards/game, 5.0 yards/attempt
125th of 125 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

Miami defense:
228.0 yards/game, 7.4 yards/attempt
84th of 125 (national), 12th of 14 (ACC)

Baghdad Bob got ahold of the UVA Football tweetster account this week and built an infographic that used some stats (almost exclusively his 221 completions) to try to make David Watford look like the Next Coming.  Naturally it was met with mockery and disdain, and that was just from the UVA fans.  Who kindly pointed out the little issue of having won only two games.

Watford is likely to rack up a whole bunch more completions this week, which will lead mainly to another five-touchdown loss and an updated infographic.  But Miami has been complicit lately in pass defense.  You might expect Jameis Winston and perhaps even Bryn Renner to have terrific games; you wouldn't ever peg Logan Thomas for 25-of-31 for 366 yards.  That's a surprise and a half.

From a playmaking standpoint, Miami actually does well against the pass.  Safety Rayshawn Jenkins and CB Tracy Howard have three picks each, although nobody has more than five break-ups.  Nobody has more than 3.5 sacks, either, but overall the Canes have 26, which is good enough for 25th in the country.

But they sure do allow completions.  So Watford will probably rack them up.  They might all be screens, swing passes, and a heavy dependence on Jake McGee, but the completions will probably be there.  At this point, though, that yards-per-attempt is what it is.  I had hopes that might creep up to the mid-sixes range by the end of the season, but no.  I also had hopes Greyson Lambert might start in order to give him a small head-start on the inevitable repeat competition next year, but also no.  Mike London is hopelessly tied to making the exact opposite mistake from previous seasons.

-- Miami run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Dallas Crawford: 96 carries, 446 yards, 10 TDs
Gus Edwards: 40 carries, 220 yards, 3 TDs

Miami run offense:
180.0 yards/game, 5.16 yards/attempt
24th of 125 (national), 4th of 14 (ACC)

UVA run defense:
183.2 yards/game, 4.55 yards/attempt
84th of 125 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)

Brent Urban is back!  Duke Johnson is out!  That alone ought to tilt the matchup in UVA's favor.... or might have, if we'd been writing this five or six weeks ago.  Miami still has a stable of solid backs; Dallas Crawford has done a good job this season when playing in relief of Johnson, and Gus Edwards is an absolute load at 6'2", 225, and will probably see his field time increase as time goes on; particularly when Miami is not playing from behind.  Which they're not likely to do on Saturday.

Still - this game might be a little petri dish of sorts.  UVA's slide from mediocre but still reasonably hopeful to pitiful oblivion coincided neatly with Urban's injury, sustained against Maryland.  Losing Demetrious Nicholson had something to do with that too, but defensive line play hasn't been even close to the same without Urban.  It'll be interesting to see if his presence in the lineup will help prevent those six-consecutive-touchdown runs our opponents like to go on.

I'm not really that hopeful, of course; when Urban was playing, the team was much more fully invested in the outcome of the game.  He'll be fired up and ready to go, but have his teammates checked out some?  Probably.  And I doubt we're looking at the 100% real deal here; the fact that Urban can play doesn't mean he's in preseason shape.  I expect this game to still be fairly ugly in this department.

-- Miami pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Stephen Morris: 156/263, 59.3%; 2,358 yards, 16 TDs, 11 INTs; 8.97 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Allen Hurns: 45 rec., 839 yards, 5 TDs
Herb Waters: 28 rec., 405 yards, 5 TDs

Miami offense:
278.2 yards/game, 9.2 yards/attempt
8th of 125 (national), 2nd of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
234.3 yards/game, 7.1 yards/attempt
69th of 125 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

Another key returner for UVA's defense: Maurice Canady, coming back from a medical issue that Doug Doughty reported to be kidney bleeding.  Yeah, OK, I guess it's alright if you sit out for that.  Can't really say all is well with his likely return, though; UVA faces one of the more potent passing offenses they've faced all year.

UVA's challenge starts with a senior quarterback, who's occasionally prone to throwing interceptions, but outweighs them with real production.  Stephen Morris's favorite target by far is Allen Hurns, a deadly big-play threat; he averages 18.6 yards a catch and has a pair of 80-yard TDs this season.  Herb Waters and Stacy Coley both command attention as well and keep the field open for Hurns.  And Clive Walford is a very good tight end, rounding out Morris's ammo supply.

If Canady weren't coming back I'd look at Drequan Hoskey and Tim Harris trying to cover this gang and mark down about 60 points for Miami.  UVA can more effectively use a nickel package now - Kelvin Rainey was doing an OK job as the nickel corner, but the added depth will be much appreciated.  Still, this bodes ill.  I mean, we're kind of jaded to the idea anymore, but Miami does a really nice job of protecting Morris and for every good play our guys make, Miami will probably turn it around with a 25-yarder.  I suspect Morris will find a way to deliver the ball to Anthony Harris's hands once at some point, but it's not like that'll be a huge obstacle.

-- Favorability ratings

UVA run offense: 3
UVA pass offense: 2
UVA run defense: 4
UVA pass defense: 1.5

Average: 2.63

-- Outlook

A commenter this week called Miami a team in "free-fall."  While the optimism about our opponent is admirable, if a three-game losing streak is a free-fall I don't want to know what a seven-game losing streak is.  Speaking of streaks, UVA actually happens to be on a three-game streak of the winning variety against the Canes.  We're 5-2 against them since 2006, and 2-1 on the road; Miami seems to be the exception to the rule that UVA teams blow chunks on the road.  But you don't have a historically bullshit season like this one without breaking every pattern of success you once had.  If our opponent is in free-fall, we're the downy-soft pillowy cushion at the bottom.

-- Prediction summary

-- David Watford has between 29 and 43 completions, giving him his second-most in a game this year.  I reserve the right to prorate this out in case of early Greyson Lambert showing.

-- Lambert attempts 10+ passes.

-- Dallas Crawford rushes for over 100 yards in Duke Johnson's absence.

-- Ant Harris gets another interception.

-- Stephen Morris tops 300 passing yards.

-- Miami scores at least one touchdown of 65 yards or greater, through the air.

Final score: Miami 45, UVA 13

-- Rest of the ACC

North Carolina vs. Old Dominion - 12:00 - ODU seems bound and determined to play as many of our recruiting rivals as they can.

Duke @ Wake Forest - 12:00 - Duke needs this one to stay in contention for the ACC CG, unless they think counting on UVA to beat VT next week is a viable strategy.

Clemson vs. The Citadel - 12:00 - As you'll see in a few lines here, the ACC is starting to pick up on the SEC strategy of waiting til the end of the season to play the cupcake games.

NC State vs. East Carolina - 12:30 - The Pack are likely to finish this season 5th out of 5 I-A teams in the state.

Pittsburgh @ Syracuse - 12:30 - The Newcomer Bowl.  Winner goes actual bowling; loser probably won't.

Georgia Tech vs. Alabama A&M - 1:30 - You see what I mean about the cupcakes.

Florida State vs. Idaho - 3:30 - You still see what I mean about the cupcakes.

Boston College @ Maryland - 3:30 - Jockeying for position on the bowl selection pecking order.

Bye: Virginia Tech

well that was stupid

I don't know what the hell possessed me the other day, but God forbid I ever again show an ounce of enthusiasm over this sad-sack bunch of poorly coached misfits.  David Watford is quoted saying, "We haven't been executing like we were before."  I'm sorry, when was that again?  I must have missed it.  I suppose it must have been VMI and maybe the first 20 minutes of Duke.  I'm not sure VMI counts.

And Mike London continues to be quoted as saying, "I need to coach better."  Well, yes, admitting you have a problem is more or less the first step, according to Alcoholics Anonymous.  London's been admitting this for months now, and then continues making decisions with his ass.  Sort of like an AA member stumbling in drunk to his 20th meeting in a row.

Case in point, obviously, is accepting a holding penalty to give UNC a 3rd and 15 instead of a 4th down.  The London explanation?  "It could have been fourth-and-5 and they kick the field goal or you take them back, blitz them, knock them back again."  Really?  You were counting on a 15-yard sack? That was the basis of your brilliant strategy?

I saw it jokingly suggested on TheSabre's forums that we should just forfeit the Miami game and spend all the extra prep time on VT.  Bad idea.  Giving this group of players more time with this incompetent coaching staff is likely to double the number of touchdowns we lose by.  The staff is going to be on the road recruiting next weekend.  My suggestion: Take an early start, and stay out late.  Send the players back to their high schools for two weeks - that way they can get their coaching from the guys who molded them into four-star prospects instead of the guys molding them into a 2-win juggernaut.  In this way maybe we will lose to Miami by 14 instead of 40.

It would be much easier to listen to the announcers patronize us with "Virginia fans just need to be patient" if the team weren't regressing mightily the more "coaching" they get.  You could maybe even brush off a seven-game losing streak and say "wait til next year" and use the youth excuse if these were close losses.  The patience line is a pander, not their real opinion - their real opinion came when they suggested that going down 14-0 after one quarter and small change would be the end of the game.  "This team sucks too bad to come back from that," was the suggestion, and damn if they weren't right.

Enjoy your Sunday.  I'm off to go watch old tapes of the Lions' 0-16 season under the illustrious Rod Marinelli so I can remember what a well-coached, disciplined football team looked like.

***********************************************

Prediction wise, I forgot to review them last week.  It doesn't matter: I didn't get any of them right this week or last.  So 19-of-40 turns into 19-of-49, plummenting below the 40% mark.  My overall predictions go to 5-4-1 ATS and 6-4 overall.

Tomorrow's post won't be the usual weekend review; that'll go Tuesday so I can preview the VCU game in a timely manner.

game preview: North Carolina

Date/Time: Saturday, November 9; 12:30

TV: ACC Net./ESPN3

Record against the Heels: 54-59-4

Last meeting: UNC 37, UVA 13; 11/15/12, Charlottesville

Last weekend: Clemson 59, UVA 10; UNC 27, NCSt. 19

Line: UNC by 13

Injury report:

Virginia:

OUT - OL George Adeosun, CB Maurice Canady, CB Demetrious Nicholson, TE Mario Nixon, WR Caanan Severin, CB Wil Wahee, OG Cody Wallace

DOUBTFUL - None

QUESTIONABLE - CB Kelvin Rainey, DT Brent Urban

PROBABLE - None

North Carolina:

Can't find one.

Welp, there's no real narrative for this week anymore.  Not for this season.  It's a shame when the season is so ruined beyond belief that the South's Oldest Rivalry means nothing except for UNC making a hell-bent run for bowl eligibility themselves.  They could get there; their schedule the rest of the way is pretty weak.  Not my concern though.  The only thing left as far as we're concerned: does the season continue to be a raging toxic disaster, or only a landfill tire fire?

-- UVA run offense vs. UNC run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 160 carries, 696 yards, 4.4 ypc, 9 TDs
Khalek Shepherd: 43 carries, 256 yards, 6.0 ypc, 1 TD

UVA offense:
157.22 yards/game, 3.76 yards/attempt
94th of 125 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)

UNC defense:
204.13 yards/game, 4.41 yards/attempt
78th of 125 (national), 12th of 14 (ACC)

There are a lot of similarities between the Georgia Tech defense previewed a few weeks ago and this UNC crowd; the main one that makes me say this is that Carolina's numbers look bad, but they've basically been run over by good teams (Miami, say) and shut down bad ones.  Guess which one UVA is?

However - this is a bad thing of me to say, but it's probably true - the absence of Cody Wallace is probably a small net positive for the run game.  I'm sort of hard on Wallace, and it's only half fair because I actually do not tend see any deficiencies in his pass-blocking, but he also more or less epitomizes the line's inability to ever get any push in the run game.  Conner Davis isn't on the injury report, so it seems he'll start at guard and Luke Bowanko will stay at center, and we'll get to see quite a bit of Eric Tetlow as well.

Here's another positive: Kevin Parks playing in the state of North Carolina.  After the NC State game last year (a 33-6 UVA win, in case you forgot what that's like) Parks talked about being fired up to play in his home state, on account of none of the schools from there ever recruiting him.  His career stats tend to back him up.  He averages 4.5 yards a carry for his career and over 6 yards a carry when playing in the state of North Carolina.

Defensively, UNC is led by a pair of linebackers - their only linebackers since they run a 4-2-5 defense.  That would be Travis Hughes and middle linebacker Jeff Schoettmer, who has worked his way up from walk-on to starter.  DE Kareem Martin is exactly the terror he was expected to be, recording 12.5 TFL and 5.5 sacks so far.  After that, the next four tacklers are DBs, but that's not really a strike against the Heels since they have that extra one on the field.

I'd posit that a small reason for the success of the linebackers, though, is that UNC's defensive tackles are not wildly impressive.  Tim Jackson is decent (at best) but Ethan Farmer is unproductive.  The ends are much stronger, with the aforementioned Martin and solid production out of the rotation at what UNC calls the "bandit" DE (weakside, basically) from Norkeithus Otis and Darius Lipford.

Since Parks is a between-the-tackles runner, and he brings that shoulder chip with him to his home state, there may be something of an advantage here.  I won't go so far as to say it's an overall, lasting type of thing.  More of a thing that we can take advantage of in stretches.  I don't think Parks will reach that 6-yard threshold from his earlier NC games, but with UVA attacking a less capable defensive middle than it's seen lately, there might be a little extra room for him to work.

-- UVA pass offense vs. UNC pass defense

Quarterback:
David Watford: 207/349, 59.3%; 1,845 yards, 7 TDs, 10 INTs; 5.29 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Jake McGee: 33 rec., 277 yards, 2 TDs
Kevin Parks: 32 rec., 305 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
213.6 yards/game, 5.1 yards/attempt
125th of 125 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

UNC defense:
218.9 yards/game, 7.5 yards/attempt
88th of 125 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)

There may be some favorable chances on this side of the ball, too.  A poop game last week dropped UVA's pass offense straight back to the very bottom of the barrel in the country, so weaknesses pointed out in opposing pass defenses should not always be construed as something we can take advantage of, but weaknesses are weaknesses all the same.

UNC has a few.  The pass rush is one.  With an NFL-bound talent like Kareem Martin, they ought to be better, but they don't otherwise get after the passer very aggressively.  Martin has 5.5 sacks and the other DE position has also accounted for 5.5, so Morgan Moses and Eric Smith both will be tested heavily.  If they can hold down the fort, though, Watford will have clean looks all day; UNC just doesn't send their linebackers very often and the DTs are no threat.

The defensive backs have some playmaking skill; safety Tre Boston has three picks and CB Tim Scott has two.  But Scott's counterpart Jabari Price has struggled some this year, and UNC's linebackers just aren't pass defenders.  If Steve Fairchild has any two-TE sets in his bag, this may be the game to try them out; lining up just one will probably mean UNC puts a safety on him, but two will leave them guessing as to which might head out for the pass.  (Not to mention the extra help on UNC's DEs.)

A quarterback for whom the game has not yet slowed down (hint: Watford) could really benefit from not having people up in his face all day.  Watford shows a lot of signs of simply rushing things based on the perception that the game just moves too quickly: he doesn't go through progressions well, he overthrows receivers, he hesitates in deciding whether he should bail on a play except for when he bails too early.  He should be afforded that extra half-second this weekend, and with a little luck things will click and he'll take advantage.

-- UNC run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
A.J. Blue: 70 carries, 266 yards, 3.8 ypc, 1 TD
Romar Morris: 49 carries, 214 yards, 4.4 ypc, 3 TDs

UNC offense:
108.38 yards/game, 3.00 yards/attempt
117th of 125 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
181.22 yards/game, 4.51 yards/attempt
82nd of 125 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)

UNC's running game is rather surprisingly unproductive.  Not one of the running backs has leapt up to lay a definitive claim to the job, and the depth chart lists four players like so: A or B or C or D.  There is no starter.  A.J. Blue is the biggest and perhaps this is why he leads in carries.  Romar Morris was the lead man for the lightning to Blue's thunder, but has never quite seized the job and has T.J. Logan and Khris Francis nipping at his heels.  None of these guys excite anyone.

The wrinkle, especially now that Bryn Renner is done for the season, is backup quarterback Marquise Williams.  Williams is also a fairly big guy (for a runner; for a passer, he's shortish) with a little bit of speed, and he's been used in most games this season as a change-of-pace quarterback who can do a little dual-threat action.

And of course, the most exciting news of the week, if you caught it on the injury report: Brent Urban.  If he plays - and I think he will - he may not be quite the slasher into the backfield that he was when healthy, but I'll take 75% of Urban over 100% of most of these guys.

UNC's way-low ranking in the run game should be taken with a slight grain of salt; much of that comes from piling up negative yards from sacking Bryn Renner.  They're not quite that bad.  But they're not real good, either.  The second caveat I offer is that they've played the good part of their schedule already; there could be improvement when they play us, Duke, etc.  However, the line is highly inexperienced at three of five positions, including both guards, and none of the running backs have put a jolt into anyone.  UNC's longest rushing play of the year is 26 yards.  Three UVA backs, plus Watford, can claim longer runs than that.  This is among the least dynamic run games in the country.

-- UNC pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Marquise Williams: 40/66, 60.6%; 537 yards, 6 TDs, 3 INTs; 8.14 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Eric Ebron: 44 rec., 669 yards, 3 TDs
Quinshad Davis: 32 rec., 476 yards, 7 TDs

UNC offense:
302.0 yards/game, 8.1 yards/attempt
37th of 125 (national), 7th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
236.6 yards/game, 7.1 yards/attempt
66th of 125 (national), 11th of 14 (ACC)

I'm just going to start off right now by saying I have no idea what to expect.  Marquise Williams, see, is a redshirt sophomore like Watford, only he's thrown just 83 passes in his career.  This is a guy who had probably the best passing game of his career against Virginia Tech, only one of the elite passing D's in the country, and is coming off two pretty subpar games against BC and NC State.  To put that in perspective, BC gives up a whopping nine yards per attempt and NC State is the other winless team in the ACC.

Williams's two biggest sources of help are tight end Eric Ebron - a first-team all-ACC near-lock - and a tremendous mismatch at WR in Quinshad Davis.  Davis stands 6'4" and is a favorite red-zone target, and can break a big play as well.  UNC has a lineup of complementary receivers as well - Bug Howard, T.J. Thorpe, and Sean Tapley command just enough attention to force teams not to focus on Davis and Ebron - but it's those top two that will burn you.

UVA's cornerbacks are still going to be DreQuan Hoskey and Tim Harris.  With Tra Nicholson out for the year and Maurice Canady having a tough time with a lingering medical problem that UVA won't disclose (but Doug Doughty did) that's how it is - and Harris came out of the Clemson game looking like Wile E. Coyote after a round with Acme dynamite.  Davis will be a problem for sure.

However, I'm inclined to think this game will hinge almost entirely on whether Williams is up for the starting job or not.  Jon Tenuta will look at the inexperience at QB - and the fact that UNC's line gives up more sacks than they should - and play Fun With Blitz Packages.  Williams will probably scramble out of trouble once or twice, much to our chagrin, but he just might also toss some ill-advised lobs somewhere.

-- Favorability ratings

UVA run offense: 4
UVA pass offense: 4
UVA run defense: 6
UVA pass defense: 5

Average: 4.75

-- Outlook

I am about to do something incredibly stupid.

-- Prediction summary

-- Kevin Parks averages between 5 and 5.5 yards per carry.

-- David Watford is not sacked.

-- Watford completes over 60%.

-- UNC's tailbacks run for less than 80 yards, combined.

-- If Marquise Williams completes less than 55% of his passes, UVA wins.

(I don't know why I'm doing this.  Maybe I'm counting on Parks's motivation; maybe I'm just stupid-happy to maybe - not even definitely, but maybe - have Brent Urban back; maybe I think Watford bounces back and has a good game; maybe I don't have faith in Marquise Williams; maybe I'm a hopeless moron.)

Final score: UVA 27, UNC 23

-- Rest of the ACC

Florida State @ Wake Forest - 12:00 - FSU will be sending embossed thank-you notes to Stanford this week.  Win out and they're a near-lock for a championship berth - and their next three weeks are Wake, Cuse, and Idaho.

Syracuse @ Maryland - 3:30 - The Terps take another stab at bowl eligibility; Cuse's postseason is very much in the balance as well.

Boston College @ New Mexico State - 3:30 - At New Mexico State?  At any rate, the Eagles have a very doable path to bowl eligibility, starting here.

NC State @ Duke - 4:00 - I'm being a jerk and rooting for Duke because if UVA goes 0-8 in the ACC I want company.

Virginia Tech @ Miami - 7:00 - VT still has a decent shot at the ACCCG, but it demands a win here.

Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh - 8:00 - I don't know why, but the Domers consider this a rivalry.

Byes: Georgia Tech, Clemson

game preview: Clemson

Date/Time: Saturday, November 2; 3:30

TV: ESPN

Record against the Tigers: 8-37-1

Last meeting: Clem. 34, UVA 21; 11/21/09, Clemson

Last weekend: GT 35, UVA 25; Clem. 40, Md. 27

Line: Clemson by 18

Injury report:

Virginia:

OUT - OL George Adeosun, CB Maurice Canady, CB Demetrious Nicholson, TE Mario Nixon, DT Brent Urban, S Wil Wahee

DOUBTFUL - none

QUESTIONABLE - none

PROBABLE - OG Conner Davis, K Ian Frye

Clemson:

OUT - DB MacKensie Alexander, OL Patrick DeStefano, DT Kevin Dodd, RB Tyshon Dye,  LB Kellen Jones, WR Charone Peake, CB Garry Peters, DT Carlos Watkins

DOUBTFUL -

QUESTIONABLE -

PROBABLE - RB Zac Brooks

What were you doing in 1999?  I'd guess your life was a lot different back then.  Three presidential terms have come and gone since then, and then some.  According to my high school yearbook, the Sega Dreamcast came out then.  This was 14 years ago.  I bring this up because the next time Clemson visits Charlottesville will be 14 years from now: 2027.  That's when V for Vendetta takes place FFS.  This is the brave new, stupid ACC.

Of course, Clemson might be a poor example of a team we should play more often, given the sound thrashing they're about to lay on our football team.  This week will put a merciful end to the season, afte which point the team will perhaps be playing for nothing more than to save their coach's job.

-- UVA run offense vs. Clemson run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 144 carries, 614 yards, 4.3 ypc, 9 TDs
Khalek Shepherd: 38 carries, 248 yards, 6.5 ypc, 1 TD

UVA offense:
162.63 yards/game, 3.86 yards/attempt
92nd of 125 (national), 11th of 14 (ACC)

Clemson defense:
144.13 yards/game, 3.79 yards/attempt
41st of 125 (national), 7th of 14 (ACC)

The likely return of Conner Davis is a small piece of good news for a running game that proved mostly impotent against Georgia Tech.  UVA has tried a lot of combinations, but this one, with Davis at LG and Whitmire at RG, has proven to be, on balance, the best of an unpalatable array of choices.

The drawback is that Luke Bowanko's snap issues are returning.  Part of the reason he makes a better guard than center is because of his erratic shotgun snaps, which tend to be high and throw off the timing of the read-option as well as just plain regular runs out of the pistol.  When your main back is Kevin Parks, whose acceleration isn't top-level stuff, it makes everything run a tick slow, and that in turn just piles up the issues on an offensive line that has a tough time as it is with holding blocks for long enough.

Adding to the difficulties is that bane of the UVA offense, a quality defensive tackle.  For Clemson it's Grady Jarrett.  They also have a pair of excellent linebackers in Spencer Shuey and Stephone Anthony, the two leading tacklers.  Two-thirds of the way through the season and they already have 78 and 80 tackles, respectively.  I'm less impressed by SLB Quandon Christian, and I think UVA would have more success running to that side than the other.  But Clemson's defensive line is more than good enough to cover any weaknesses among the linebackers - not that there are many.

Other than an inexplicable meltdown against Syracuse and the opening game against Georgia, teams haven't been real successful running the ball against Clemson.  It's unlikely ours is the team to break that trend.  I don't think Parks will manage more than 60 yards, and the rest of the running attack will fall in place behind.

-- UVA pass offense vs. Clemson pass defense

Quarterback:
David Watford: 191/314, 60.8%; 1,715 yards, 7 TDs, 9 INTs; 5.46 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Jake McGee: 31 rec., 265 yards, 2 TDs
Kevin Parks: 29 rec., 285 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
219.9 yards/game, 5.3 yards/attempt
124th of 125 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

Clemson defense:
230.6 yards/game, 7.4 yards/attempt
81st of 125 (national), 11th of 14 (ACC)

Why is Clemson looking upwards in the Atlantic Conference race?  Because of the 444 yards they gave up to Jameis Winston.  David Watford isn't Winston and has nothing close to the surrounding talent, but this remains the weaker point of Clemson's defense.

Actually, it doesn't mean they're not dangerous, though.  Clemson's 29 sacks are tops in the country, and their 13 picks are tied for 8th.  Cornerbacks Bashaud Breeland and Darius Robinson have three picks apiece, and speed-rushing DE Vic Beasley has ten sacks.  GT's Jeremiah Attaochu abused right tackle Eric Smith, sometimes simply by juking him without ever being engaged in a block, and Smith will have his hands full again; no doubt Clemson paid attention to the film and won't bother lining up Beasley across from Morgan Moses.

Clemson, though, is also prone to allowing the big play.  They sit near the bottom of the national rankings in this regard.  That means if UVA is even going to keep this thing close(ish), Tim Smith needs to repeat his performance of last week.  Having Jake McGee back will be a big plus, but Watford needs multiple options to stretch the field or there just won't be any point to this at all.  It's Smith who has emerged as a downfield threat - not in terms of the one big lightning strike, but he can create 20, 25-yard plays.  Consistency is a problem, of course, as he's yet to really do anything two games in a row this year.

Watford is likely to have a tough time with this pass rush.  Consider it experience for the VT game.  Clemson averages more than 3.5 sacks a game, so predicting three, as I was planning on doing, starts to look pretty weak; let's say four.  I think Watford can continue to top 200 yards and the Hoos should be able to move the ball in fits and starts, but expecting a repeat of last week would be too much.

-- Clemson run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Roderick McDowell: 119 carries, 607 yards, 5.1 ypc, 2 TDs
Zac Brooks: 47 carries, 234 yards, 5.0 ypc, 2 TDs

Clemson offense:
175.88 yards/game, 3.94 yards/attempt
87th of 125 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
182.0 yards/game, 4.56 yards/attempt
84th of 125 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)

Tailback Roderick McDowell is a decent back, but let's face it, even as the starter he's essentially Tajh Boyd's change of pace.   A great deal of the Clemson run game is the read-option run between Boyd and McDowell, and Boyd has 72 carries for 334 yards once you take away sacks.

In that sense it's a good deal for us that the defense has been seeing the read-option in practice.  The basics of defending it are to do one of two things: have your defensive tackle kick some ass while the DE pops out to take the QB (but there's no Urban) or crash the DE to take the RB and "scrape" the linebacker outside.  I have, however, no idea what Jon Tenuta is doing with linebackers these days, given the strange appearance of this week's depth chart.

One thing seems sure: Max Valles as anything other than a situational pass-rusher seems like a bad idea.  Valles is inexperienced and it showed badly against GT; against the read-option I'd rather stick with the experienced and trustworthy Romero and Coley.  And if Tenuta blitzes up the middle, that's great except that Boyd will probably just keep and head outside for a big gain.

Clemson will get their yards here; they've been pretty successful all season without being spectacular.  Steady is the word, as the run game gets its share of room just from teams hanging back, understandably scared of the pass.  I'm not too worried about there being a big play here, but there's no reason the Tigers shouldn't just continue to be able to do what they do, which is pick up five yards whenever they want to.

-- Clemson pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Tajh Boyd: 168/263, 63.9%; 2,243 yards, 17 TDs, 5 INTs; 8.53 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Sammy Watkins: 58 rec., 813 yards, 5 TDs
Adam Humphries: 30 rec., 368 yards, 2 TDs

Clemson offense:
319.6 yards/game, 8.1 yards/attempt
36th of 125 (national), 7th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
211.8 yards/game, 6.6 yards/attempt
39th of 125 (national), 7th of 14 (ACC)

No Nicholson, no Canady, going against Sammy Watkins and Tajh Boyd.  There's no need to overthink this.

-- Favorability ratings

UVA run offense: 2.5
UVA pass offense: 3.5
UVA run defense: 3.5
UVA pass defense: 1

Average: 2.63

-- Outlook

For the cliff notes, just reread the pass defense segment.  I cannot think of a single reason this should go well.  It's possible to look at UVA and see a team scrapping for a win and continuing to improve but tragically coming up short each time.  It's also possible to see a reeling, injury-riddled, often undisciplined team with unsolvable weaknesses, going up against a legitimate top-ten team in the country.  The improvement might just result in one win, maybe against Carolina or VT's putrid offense.  For now, Tivo will come in handy should I want to see any play in particular; I'll be watching Michigan-MSU.

-- Prediction summary

-- Kevin Parks fails to reach 60 yards on the ground.

-- David Watford passes for over 200 yards.

-- Watford is sacked at least four times.

-- Sammy Watkins needs 187 yards to reach 1,000 for the season.  He'll get them all Saturday.

Final score: Clemson 51, UVA 17

-- Rest of the ACC

Virginia Tech @ Boston College - 12:00 - Any team that plays a decently disciplined defense against VT is an upset risk - and BC does.

North Carolina @ NC State - 12:30 - UNC is 2-5, and could easily finish the regular season 7-5.

Wake Forest @ Syracuse - 12:30 - A likely Bowl Eligibility Bowl in the Atlantic.

Pittsburgh @ Georgia Tech - 7:00 - GT can clinch a postseason trip.

Miami @ Florida State - 8:00 - Possible preview of the ACCCG.

Byes: Maryland, Duke

the stat sheet says we won

And the scoreboard says we lost.

We will jump right into the bullet points because there's no need to construct a narrative here.  376 yards of passing and a +5 non-desperation-time turnover margin, and a loss, says all that needs to be said.  It takes a pretty awful team to lose under those circumstances.  So.  Bullet points.

-- It was mentioned during the game that David Watford set new UVA records for completions and attempts.  The interesting part was that he broke the completions record before the attempts record.  The other interesting part was that both previous records were set by Matt Schaub, in another loss to Georgia Tech some 11 years ago.

-- I think Steve Fairchild called some occasionally stupid plays (you're trying to pick up a critical fourth down and you call for a pass to Billy Skrobacz?  Not to demean Skrobacz, but he's a fullback, and therefore not particularly likely to be open unless the defense fails to account for him entirely.  There wasn't another playmaker somewhere on the roster?)  But overall Fairchild's scheme is starting to work nicely.  Some "too horizontal" criticisms should be laid to rest.  Clearly, if Fairchild has the WRs to stretch the field, he'll use them, as evidenced by Tim Smith's excellent day.  I consider 13 yards per catch the dividing line between short-field possession receivers and long-field deep threats; Smith finally averaged over 15, and given the day from him and Darius Jennings, plus a couple of fine catches by Canaan Severin, I gotta give the receivers an A this week.

-- That said, before checking the box score I would have sworn that Watford's average yards per throw was much higher than 6.1.  Seemed like there were plenty of downfield throws, and Watford completed over 70%.  But nope.  Barely six yards per throw again.  So not all the concerns are laid to rest.  But Watford laid in a few really nice throws, and if he can bring on the consistency in that department he'll change the dynamic quite a bit.

-- OK, the big issue: second-quarter clock management.  The refs pretty ridiculously let five seconds run off the clock before deigning to acknowledge Mike London's timeout.  But if you're going to call a run play, it doesn't really matter; neither six nor eleven seconds are enough time to run the ball and then get the field goal unit on.  Nor is eleven seconds even enough time to run the ball and then spike it, given the time needed to untangle the pile.

The run play is mildly defensible since, you know, give the ball to your best player.  Kevin Parks had already had a touchdown that entirely consisted of yards after contact.  But on the other hand, you're putting the game in the hands of your weakest unit (the O-line) and you know this shit didn't work against Maryland so why would it now?

-- I would've also liked to see an onside kick after the touchdown and 2PC that made it 28-25, but I can see the argument for not doing so.  Just get a three-and-out and you're fine.

-- Watford might've had an even better day throwing the ball, but Eric Smith had his worst day at right tackle.  Jeremiah Attaochu abused him all day long.  I haven't noticed Smith a ton, and for a freshman RT, that's a general plus, but Saturday was not his day.

-- I really wish the defensive game plan against the option focused on forcing the keep rather than forcing the pitch.  Help is closer when the QB keeps and the GT run game never busts big plays except on the pitch.  (Or the middle handoff.)  Vad Lee and Justin Thomas combined for seven yards on eight carries.

-- I got in from seeing the Lions beat the Cowboys in way-awesome fashion (and now I get to make fun of people who left the game early), and other celebratory activities, and then had to write this depressing stuff.  What a hobby.  This is where we are, man; Saturdays suck (unless Michigan wins, then they halfway suck) and I turn to the Lions to make the weekend better.  The Lions.  That is a bad Saturday state of affairs.

Prediction review:

-- The UVA running game fails to top 125 yards.  Yup.  Even in taking out -17 from sacks and such, the running game didn't exactly rack up yards.  Part of this was game plan; London claimed that the plan called for tilting the balance toward the pass because they felt GT had a good run defense but a sucky pass defense, and there ended up being more than twice as many called passes as runs.  Part of that was also due to playing from behind, but still.

-- David Watford again tops 6 yards a pass.  Yeah, I mean, barely, but he did.  And like I said - I would've sworn he was closer to eight just from watching.  I was surprised to see the final number so low.

-- Both David Sims and Zach Laskey have 100+ yard rushing days.  They did, and I'm especially proud of myself for this one.  This one's going out on a limb since, as pointed out in the comments, they platoon.  But yeah, no middle at all without Brent Urban, who can't get back soon enough.

-- No GT receiver has a catch of 30 yards or more, unless it's mostly YAC.  Dammit.  An elusive perfect day ruined by one lousy wheel route.  Robert Godhigh's 38-yard catch, despite him being a running back and all, spent too much time in the air for me to count this one.

Moving to 19-for-40 on the season gets me close to 50%, a number I haven't beaten since I started doing this.  Ten points was exactly the spread, so I have to stick at 4-3-1 ATS but move to 5-3 straight up in my overall predictions.  Fish in a barrel, man.

game preview: Georgia Tech

Date/Time: Saturday, October 26; 12:30

TV: ACC Net., ESPN3

Record against the Jackets: 17-17-1

Last meeting: GT 56. UVA 20; 9/15/12, Atlanta

Last weekend: Duke 35, UVA 22; GT 56, Cuse 0

Line: GT by 10

Injury reports:

Virginia:

OUT - OL George Adeosun, CB Maurice Canady, CB Demetrious Nicholson, TE Mario Nixon, WR E.J. Scott, DT Brent Urban, S Wil Wahee

DOUBTFUL - WR Kyle Dockins

QUESTIONABLE - G Conner Davis, K Ian Frye, TE Jake McGee

PROBABLE - LB Daquan Romero

Georgia Tech:

OUT - WR Anthony Autry, OL Morgan Bailey, OL Ray Beno, C Freddie Burden, S Jamal Golden, DT Shawn Green, LB Anthony Harrell, OL Errin Joe

DOUBTFUL - None

QUESTIONABLE - None

PROBABLE - None

Yeah, Paul Johnson, I bet you have nobody banged up in the slightest aside from the guys who'll miss the game.  Not a single tweaked ankle, twinged shoulder, or sore knee.  Somebody is not conforming to the intent of the ACC injury report.  Meantime, that is the worst UVA injury report I've ever seen.

It all just makes a tough game tougher.  Georgia Tech is always a difficult matchup if your defense isn't well-prepared, and last week is proof they can demolish lousy teams - as if last year's game in Atlanta wasn't proof enough.  The road doesn't get any easier after last week, and with the losses piling up it's fair to wonder if this team will find another win all season.

-- UVA run offense vs. GT run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 131 carries, 560 yards, 4.3 ypc, 8 TDs
Khalek Shepherd: 32 carries, 233 yards, 7.3 ypc, 1 TD

UVA offense:
176.14 yards/game, 4.03 yards/attempt
82nd of 125 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

GT offense:
124.00 yards/game, 3.98 yards/attempt
57th of 125 (national), 11th of 14 (ACC)

Conner Davis's presence on the injury report is a disturbing sign for the offense; it was his absence in the first place that triggered a lot of the offensive line troubles.  Cody Wallace is listed as Davis's backup with Eric Tetlow behind Jay Whitmire on the other side, but keep an eye on this.  Wallace was pulled for Tetlow against Pitt, and Tetlow could get the call.  The offense would probably run better if so.

Georgia Tech's defense has been somewhat like a chameleon, matching their play to the level of opposition.  If the opponent is good, they've gashed the Jackets.  If the opponent is lousy, they get shut down.  Duke Johnson and Miami absolutely destroyed them; on the other hand, Virginia Tech's running game didn't exist except for what Logan Thomas did.  Which wasn't much.

The Jackets just don't get into the backfield much.  Nose tackle Adam Gotsis is a nasty customer in this regard with six run-game TFLs this season, but otherwise nobody else has very many, and GT is 110th in the country in TFL.  That said, a nasty defensive tackle was all it took for Pitt to destroy UVA's offense, and three-tech tackle Euclid Cummings is good enough that over-doubling Gotsis will probably cost the Hoos.

GT's linebackers can be tough too; there is no particular holy terror but no weak link either, with all three starters - Brandon Watts, Jabari Hunt-Days, and Quayshawn Nealy - all in the team's top four in tackles.

If Davis does play, he'll probably be limited, so I can't express a lot of hope for the line either way.  UVA isn't going to find itself totally shut down, but shouldn't expect to move the ball as easily as they did in the first half against Duke, either.  The best chance: Watford.  GT has shown a tendency to allow yards by a running quarterback, as both Logan Thomas and BYU's Taysom Hill were able to move the ball this way.  Watford doesn't keep much on the read option, though.  I was brimming with optimism for the run game last week against Duke; their failure to come through combined with injury troubles at guard and another tough DT gives me much less faith, and I can't figure the run game for more than 125 yards or so.

-- UVA pass offense vs. GT pass defense

Quarterback:
David Watford: 148/253, 58.5%; 1,339 yards, 5 TDs, 8 INTs; 5.29 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Jake McGee: 31 rec., 265 yards, 2 TDs
Kevin Parks: 25 rec., 270 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
197.6 yards/game, 5.1 yards/attempt
122nd of 125 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

GT defense:
203.7 yards/game, 7.3 yards/attempt
75th of 125 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

Bad news, everyone.  We're no longer last in the country in passing!  Wonder if it'll matter this week; we've known for a couple weeks now that Jake McGee is banged up even though he didn't show up on the injury report against Duke.  The Maryland game made it clear enough.  Now listed as questionable, McGee's status is firmly up in the air.  I would guess he plays, but we'll see.  No McGee would mean a big, big role for Zach Swanson, and, no disrespect to Swanson, but a pretty big detriment to the passing game.

It won't have much effect on the stat sheet, but Kyle Dockins looks very likely to miss the game given his injury report status.  Dockins isn't targeted much, but his absence means the coaches will have to dig deeper into the underperforming-veterans well and give more playing time to Tim Smith or Darius Jennings.  Any more drops by Jennings and he's going to end up the fanbase's least favorite player; his chronic case of stone hands this season has been one of the year's most frustrating developments.

Defensively, Tech brings a solid pass rush from Adam Gotsis and defensive end Jeremiah Attaochu, though Attaochu's production on the year is decidedly down from what it was.  They present a tough matchup in that their linebackers, Quayshawn Nealy in particular, are good pass defenders.  Nealy plays the weak side, though, so won't likely be matched up with McGee much.  Brandon Watts on the strong side is less skilled in pass defense, so McGee (or Swanson) should be able to find room.  Cornerback Louis Young is the top player in the secondary, and given our receivers' inability to get open, should be a blanket all day.

I think it's fair to upgrade our assessment of our passing game a tick - but only a tick, as Watford is still far too inconsistent and the receivers haven't shown any indication of upgrading their game.  If they didn't do it against Duke, I have no idea when they ever will.  GT isn't overall a great pass-defense team - the rush is OK, and Young is the only playmaker among the starters in the secondary, though backup safety Chris Milton also has two picks.  Logan Thomas, he of the scattershot arm, had a really nice day passing against the Jackets.  Tech might present some matchup problems with linebackers who can defend the pass (Nealy may be a problem in trying to get the ball to Kevin Parks) and a pass-rushing DT, but Watford should continue to nudge his trend upwards, even if only slightly.

-- GT run offense against UVA run defense

Top backs:
David Sims: 84 carries, 409 yards, 4.9 ypc, 6 TDs
Zach Laskey: 45 carries, 261 yards, 5.8 ypc, 4 TDs

GT offense:
304.43 yards/game, 5.27 yards/attempt
19th of 125 (national), 3rd of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
151.71 yards/game, 3.98 yards/attempt
56th of 125 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)

Each week I've sort of taken to naming which of the four sections of the game should provide the decisive factor.  This week it's here, because against GT it's always here.  You know the drill about what they do.

Unfortunately, defending it is going to be a son of a bitch this week.  We don't have our best DT, so we'll have a tough time holding the middle against the fullback dive part of the option.  We're short on options at DE because our run-stopping DE is playing DT (and is a little overmatched there due to size.)  Two very solid run-stopping tacklers at CB are out.  We do have some high-quality linebackers whose strengths just happen to include play diagnosis - but only two.

Adding to the complication is what Jon Tenuta will do.  Remember, Tenuta, despite his past tenure at GT, didn't coach there under the current regime, and so doesn't have any special insight.  If I had a time machine I'd go back and watch old NC State-GT games (despite the crossover, Tenuta did coach against the Jackets twice while at NC State) to see what his philosophy was.  It didn't work out especially well; Tenuta's defense gave up 28 and 35 points, while the Pack split the crossover series in 2010 and 2011.

If he decides to be Mr. Aggressive as usual, that could pay wicked dividends at times and get him burned super-crispy at others.  Blitzing Coley up the middle could help dissuade fullback dives, and sending an OLB or a CB from one side could either flood the area with defenders (good) or leave huge running lanes (bad.)  Tech isn't real big on throwing over the middle, so having Anthony Harris filling the middle while Coley finds a gap to get through could be a helpful strategy, especially since the depth at DT is hurting.

Tenuta's going to have to wizard his way through this one, though, and ultimately, GT has a major upper hand here.  With so many key personnel out, UVA will be depending on a patchwork of less-experienced players.  I think GT will have a ton of success up the middle.  I fully expect to get gashed there.  If the Hoos can force Vad Lee to keep - he's only averaging three yards a carry - they'll be in better shape, but I don't think they can do that consistently.

-- GT pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Vad Lee: 44/99, 44.4%; 846 yards, 8 TDs, 5 INTs; 8.55 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
DeAndre Smelter: 14 rec., 211 yards, 2 TDs
Robert Godhigh: 10 rec., 188 yards, 2 TDs

GT offense:
125.6 yards/game, 7.9 yards/attempt
42nd of 125 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
225.9 yards/game, 6.4 yards/attempt
33rd of 125 (national), 6th of 14 (ACC)

You have to give Paul Johnson this: He's incredibly consistent in his pass-offense playcalling.  In his first four years as GT coach, his teams attempted 165, 168, 168, and 167 passes.  Last year they went all pass-wacky with 194, but this season, Vad Lee is on pace for 170 attempts.  Consistency.

I bring up this factoid just because there's very little to talk about in defending GT's passing game.  All it takes is a solid cornerback and some discipline at free safety.  (That would be really cool if we had Demetrious Nicholson, or even Maurice Canady.)  If you have those two things, GT will not be able to throw the ball against you, because they like to wait until you're overplaying the run.

Then again, we might be forced to overplay the run if the assigned defenders can't stop it.  Plus, this season, GT is actually spreading the ball between WRs a little more than they used to, when in the past they would have one big dude making all the plays and the second WR would just be a very fast, very widely split offensive tackle.  And then some occasional throws to the RBs.  This year, DeAndre Smelter has 14 catches, but Darren Waller has 10.  Both are very, very tall in the usual Paul Johnson mold; Smelter is 6'3" and Waller 6'5".  Ordinarily this would not be a bad game to break in Tim Harris in his first game as a starter, but Harris may be tested a few times, particularly given his inexperience.

Lee, however, has not been the more-accurate passer he was advertised to be, connecting on only 44% of his passes.  And UVA has, with just a few ugly exceptions, defended the pass rather well.  If GT beats us, it won't be through the air.

-- Favorability ratings

UVA run offense: 3.5
UVA pass offense: 4
UVA run defense: 1.5
UVA pass defense: 6

Average: 3.75

That said, it'd really be fairer if I half-weighted the pass defense and double-weighted the run defense.

-- Outlook

Here's the recipe for beating Georgia Tech's offense.  You need:

-- a really good defensive tackle that can command a double team and even slash into the backfield, to discourage the fullback dive part of the option
-- defensive ends that are both disciplined and able to hold the edge against a blocker
-- a cornerback that sticks like glue
-- a free safety you trust implicitly
-- linebackers who can fill gaps ASAP and move side-to-side with ease.

We have one out of five.  We would have four out of five if not for injuries.  This is not a good omen.

-- Prediction summary

-- The UVA running game fails to top 125 yards.

-- David Watford again tops 6 yards a pass.  Progress.  Baby steps.

-- Both David Sims and Zach Laskey have 100+ yard rushing days.

-- No GT receiver has a catch of 30 yards or more, unless it's mostly YAC.  (This represents success in one realm of the matchup, at least.)

Final score: GT 35, UVA 17

-- Rest of the ACC

Wake Forest @ Miami - 12:00 - A likely rout, but then, that's what I thought Maryland would do to the Deacs last week.

Pittsburgh @ Navy - 1:00 - I labeled Pitt the worst team in the Coastal and they're two wins from eligibility; probably one win after this week.

NC State @ Florida State - 3:30 - The Pack have occasionally had the magic touch against FSU, but not this year.

Clemson @ Maryland - 3:30 - The Terps will have other chances at bowl eligibility, but it won't be this week, and being rolled for the second week in a row - not to mention losing their whole receiving corps to injury - could send them into a death spiral.

Boston College @ North Carolina - 3:30 - I picked BC to go to a bowl this year when nobody else would, and even I didn't figure they'd be the only team in this matchup with a conference win.

Duke @ Virginia Tech - 3:30 - Semi-unstoppable force meets immovable object when Duke has the ball.  Wet noodle meets half-eaten jelly roll otherwise.

Bye: Syracuse, busy licking their GT-induced wounds.

unfavorable comparison

I have to admit I've been unsure how to start this post.  I have all sorts of great ideas for how to finish it, each more spiteful than the last.  Maybe I'll go with the anecdote of the Cleveland Browns fan who died this past summer and wrote in his obituary that he wanted some of the Browns to act as pallbearers for his funeral - so they could let him down one last time.

I only hope I can maintain that kind of phlegmatic humor for the next 15 months, because they're going to be awful ones as far as football is concerned.  Probably the next 12 after that too since it looks likely that a new coach will take a minute or two in getting up to speed as well.  Hopefully that guy can coach his way out of a brown paper bag, because he's going to get here and find a lot of fans wearing them.

This season is a lesson, really.  I'm starting to feel awfully vindicated, in a grotesque way. The UVA-fan conventional wisdom has always been about "building for the future" by pulling experienced players the moment the season starts to go south and putting in wide-eyed freshmen to "get their reps" because it will "pay dividends down the road."  When Marc Verica was starting, fans wanted Ross Metheny or Mike Rocco instead.  When Rocco was starting, fans wanted David Watford instead, and then they wanted Phillip Sims.  Now we're doing exactly what this breed of fans has always wanted, because we have no choice - and it's pissing the future down the drain.  Every loss brings us mercifully closer to the end of the Mike London era, and sends recruits scurrying elsewhere.  Melvin Keihn has liked UVA for a long time and he comes from a very pro-UVA school, and he will probably not go to UVA.  London has been working on Jamil Kamara for three years, and his current leader is Wisconsin. (This said, Kamara seems to be the type of recruit whose leader is the last school he visited.)   Tim Settle is a crucial 2015 recruit, whose recruitment is getting more and more wide open by the day.  2015 needs to be a huge class, because there will be jillions of seniors next year, and London is going to walk into that recruiting cycle with one foot in the lame-duck grave.

Watford may yet bloom in 2015, of course.  Can't rule that out.  The play-for-the-future crowd certainly doesn't have that part wrong yet.  I couldn't decide whether he would progress or regress during this Duke game, I just didn't anticipate him doing both.

At any rate, we are now in dangerous territory.  It could've been avoided simply by not shitting the bed with the lights on in the second half.  The danger is not so much that the London era might be over soon.  I'm taking it for granted that it will be.  You're to take for granted now that I don't have any more faith in his coaching abilities.  I say this reluctantly and with a twinge of regret, even, because he seems like good people, and a guy who genuinely gives a shit about his players.  But I've given him the same slack one gives a player - and in a player's fourth year, we expect him to stop making stupid freshman mistakes because he ought to have grown up enough by now.  Well, here is London's senior year, so to speak, and he hasn't figured out shit.  I'm not going to spend every week ranting about it because I accept that he's not going anywhere after this season.  Just read into everything I say an assumption that London doesn't know how to fix the problems.

No, the real danger is that London's tenure, five years long if we continue down this path, is going to go down in history as even worse than that of the most vilified figure in UVA football history.  Al Groh at least started off pretty well.  Sure, he might have been micromanaging, overly self-assured, and totally inflexible; sure, he irritated a few high school coaches; sure, he pissed off a few people on the way out, and again by letting Georgia Tech structure his contract so we were paying him to coach there; sure, he helped dry up the instate recruiting pipelines; sure, he went to one bowl game in his last four years.  But you have to give this to the man in the glass: He had a winning record against fucking Duke.

********************************************

Prediction summary:

-- Kevin Parks gains 100+ yards.  Parks sputtered out with lame blocking and generally bad decisions from Watford on the read-option, and gained only 50.

-- The UVA run offense generates about 200 yards.  I really thought we were well on our way here, but again, thppbbbtt, and again, exactly half what I expected.

-- David Watford averages over six yards a throw. (Whee.)

-- Watford tops 200 yards passing. (Whee, again.)  Watford did succeed in both endeavors; the Duke pass defense was pretty awful and Watford looked very good early in calmly finding the guy that some Duke safety or linebacker would leave wide open in a futile all-out rush at the QB.  Unfortunately, Watford got happy-armed as time went on and started overthrowing everyone in sight.

-- Duke's passing game tops 300 yards.  It "only" got 292.  Can I have that one?  I'm having that one.  Largely the reason it didn't is because Boone looked like crap early.  He settled in nicely, though, eh?  And he'd have blown past 300 easily based only on how our defense played.

-- Neither team comes up with a turnover all game long.  Both quarterbacks threw a pick, so, no.

Going three of six - a very dubious three of six, but whatever, the Tigers lost and the Lions lost and the Red Wings lost and UVA lost and I had the restraint not to drive into a bridge embankment so the third prediction is my prize - makes me 16-for-36 on the season.  Also, I came damn close to nailing that final score, so I'm 4-3 both straight up and against the spread now.  This might be unfair, though, at this point; all I have to do is pick us to lose every week and at least then I'm guaranteed a winning record.