a look around

We have a slight pause between the regular season and postseason, so it's time to take stock of how things are going in UVA's major sports.

Basketball, obviously, is pretty much the way it's been since Joe Harris knocked on Tony Bennett's front door a couple years ago.  The team could literally take a collective dump at center court on Thursday and then stagger off the court smashed on Wild Turkey, and they'd still be a three seed at the barest of minimums.  Since theydo actually plan on trying to win a basketball game (against either Clemson or Georgia Tech), the only drama left when it comes to tournament seeding is: 1 or 2?

Right now they're Joe Lunardi's third #1.  (And in a bracket that sets them up on a potential crash course with Buddy Hield, which would be excellent theater.)  That said, Michigan State and Xavier are strong candidates to take that 1 seed with strong tourney runs - and let's face it, MSU has to be considered the massive favorite in the B1G tourney just because of Izzo and their evil vampire nature.  (Come to think of it, I would consider them the massive favorite in the NCAA, too, without a powerhouse team in the bracket to apply the stake to the heart.)  UVA would be at risk of dropping to a 2 seed if they didn't make it to the ACC championship game on Saturday - but would be close to a lock for a 1 if they did.

Attention must be paid to Malcolm Brogdon, opening up a new door in ACC history with the never-before-seen feat of winning ACC POY and DPOY in the same year.  The two awards are clearly linked to each other, though, because the conference's two leading scorers are Tobacco Roadies.  In other words, Brogdon isn't POY without being DPOY.  The interesting thing is that the POY vote wasn't all that close, and his defensive stats don't really stand out.  He's not a machine for either blocks or steals, which is usually how you win DPOY.  You have to actually pay attention to UVA games to know Brogdon's value on defense - which is to say, UVA has become must-see TV for ACC journalists.  Quite likely, they noticed how Brandon Ingram stopped lighting up the scoreboard when Brogdon was assigned to him.

The ACC tournament sets up well for UVA.  The other side of the bracket has the conference's top three offenses (UNC, Duke, Notre Dame); the only top team in the conference that UVA didn't beat (Duke) didn't earn a double bye and needs to take their thin lineup through a gauntlet.  That said, it's a shame Louisville isn't involved - it'd be tougher to get through, but man, six teams like the ACC has at the top, plus some danger mice like Clemson and VT, would make for an ACC tourney for the ages.  Or really, just the way things should be every year.

Speaking of Louisville, though - are we liking this new tradition of going out on Senior Day and bombing some highly-ranked but temporarily hapless opponent back to the Stone Age with Dick Vitale in attendance?**  And capping it with a three-pointer from a senior walk-on causing the roof to blow off the place? Senior Days don't get better than that.  And I've been sticking up for Mike Tobey all year - I think he gets slapped with expectations and standards that are different from everyone else's, and unfairly criticized as a result - and it was therefore doubly awesome to see him own every square inch of the interior.  And since Thomas Rogers's cherry-on-top three against Syracuse two years ago is still my favorite UVA basketball moment of all time, watching the rerun starring Caid Kirven was like hearing a favorite song on the radio that the DJ never plays.  I could watch that show over and over.

**Don't underestimate the presence of Vitale.  First of all, I don't give a shit what anyone says, I like the guy, a lot.  And second, on the same day that Duke and Carolina were playing at Cameron, ESPN put UVA in the prime-time slot and sent Dickie V to Charlottesville.  UVA-Louisville trumped Duke-UNC.  How about that?

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March 10 is approaching quickly enough that you might read this afterwards.  It's significant in this context for one thing: six years ago, it was the day that Mike London picked up his first two commitments of his first full recruiting class.  That would be David Dean and Clifton Richardson.  Bronco Mendenhall is unlikely to beat that pace, which, of course, is fine.  Mendenhall has really cranked up the offer cannon, and hardly a day goes by without a new one going out.  He's already held two junior days, both of which were highly attended.

I don't think that all these offers are actually, like, offers.  Bronco's not going to be one to tell you you have an offer when really you don't, but he's got to get out front of the relevance train, and there are ways to let a guy claim an offer while making sure he knows he's got to continue to earn it.  There's a feeling-out process going on.  An offer that goes out might be to see if the interest is mutual, or to keep UVA in the game while Bronco continues to evaluate.  Or a combination of the two.

Meanwhile, the feeling-out process is both ways.  There's clearly interest in what Bronco is putting together, but no prospect could ever be faulted for doing his homework.  Mike London was more familiar to everyone locally.  Nearly all his 2011 class was from Virginia or Maryland, and he was already a somewhat known quantity to the recruits he was talking to.  Now we have guys who either were not hearing from UVA before, or had been but under a totally different regime.  It's encouraging that the combined junior day attendance (between the two that've been held so far) was around 50.  Should we be surprised that the process is taking a little bit of time to ramp up?  Not remotely.

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And finally, our beloved spring sports....are showing the rust something fierce.  The baseball team is already loaded down with long-term injuries just a couple weeks into the season, and the bullpen has blown a few leads.  And the lacrosse team....pfff.

It's interesting, actually, that a lot of the reaction to the loss to High Point was not "Virginia is really losing their dominance" but "The blue bloods are really losing their dominance."  I think that's a little bit of a confirmation bias thing.  Most people want there to be more parity in lacrosse, and many are rooting for the "blue-bloods" to lose their hegemony even if they're a fan of a blue-blood.  They just don't want it to be their blue-blood.  And parity in the game is slowly increasing.

But it's really coming more at the expense of the middle tier than the top.  ACC teams are having a fairly tough time this year, and Hopkins has been vexing their fans for a while now, same way UVA has.  But that's nothing compared to how the older middle-tier teams are looking.  Teams like Georgetown, Delaware, St. John's, UMass - formerly tough wins under any circumstance, and now complete pushovers.  Sure, it's not a good sign for lacrosse royalty that teams like Cornell and UVA are no longer powerhouses, but the real brunt of the power shift has been felt further down.

Which means that UVA's struggles - some bad losses and some ugly wins - are more about UVA than the tide of change.  Because let's face it: If Dom Starsia is gently steered toward retirement, which he probably should be if the season continues the way it started, you're nuts if you think the job would have any trouble attracting qualified candidates.

And if you think a 9-4 baseball team is any reason for panic, you learned nothing last year.

bloody brilliant

The best basketball in the world isn't played in the NBA Finals, or the Olympics, or twenty minutes before One Shining Moment.  It's low-major conference championships.  Think MAAC, NEC, Atlantic Sun.  It's played in college gyms that are actually gyms and not a lot bigger than high school ones, and by players whose professional basketball future is in, like, Belgium, at best.  It's not nearly as skilled as what you see on the red carpets in Lexington or Chapel Hill or Lawrence.  It can be a brickfest.  It might be a foulfest.  But nobody, anywhere, plays harder than a guy in his senior year shooting for his one and only NCAA tournament bid.  Something about the difference between getting to play on the biggest stage and be kings for a week with the chance, however miniscule, to be the toast of the world for slaying Goliath..... and walking off the court and leaving your basketball career behind forever.  It really motivates.  Fans scream their asses off, coaches coach their asses off, and best of all, players really, really play their asses off.

There was a little bit of that going on Sunday night.  No, it's not quite the same in a basketball palace like the JPJ, during the regular season, when the reward is just another step toward the not-entirely-necessary honor of a #1 seed in the conference tourney.  But still.

But still, indeed.  Maybe it says something about this team that they're digging that deep even without that much on the line.  I mentioned a line from an ESPN column about a month ago that said this is a team that likes its games to be rock fights.  I (still) don't care what Myron Medcalf says, it's impressive and it's damn good entertainment to see some of the team looking like they were in a literal rock fight and the rest of them decide it's not going to stop them.

These Florida State games have all been kinda like that, come to think of it.  It's the second year in a row that a UVA guard has gotten concussed in the middle of one.**  Leonard Hamilton's teams rarely seem to let you off easy.  I know there's hand-wringing over the offense, and it's not all unjustified, but most of our games against FSU end up with both teams at less than a point-per-possession.  FSU makes you earn it.  And they're bigger and longer than the Hoos, which makes the performance in the paint that much more impressive.

**The school's evening press release said Perrantes suffered a mild concussion.  I'm thinking it's either really mild considering they let a concussed guy back out on the bench in uniform in front of bright lights and a raucous crowd.... or else that's a really bad idea.  Or both.

-- Evan Nolte is suffering from Sammy Zeglinski Syndrome, which means he can't shoot a lick right now and that means the fans are in his grill for being useless.  All I know is he's the guy Tony Bennett has chosen to start the game in Justin Anderson's stead, and he's the guy getting the crunch time minutes.  Which means he's doing something right.

-- Perrantes is important - huge, even - for the long term, but he actually wasn't having much of an impact last night.  I'll quantify exactly what his loss meant: three points, which is the bucket that FSU scored when Perrantes's man found himself wide open as a result of his defender laying on the deck with blood gushing out of a brand-new orifice.  UVA wasn't getting squat from the perimeter all day anyway, and losing their point guard made the offense less about open shots and screens and passes and coachy stuff and more about forcing the ball to the bigs and just letting them do posty stuff.

-- We're not the only ones staring down the barrel of the attrition gun, after Chris Jones's dismissal from Louisville for threatening his girlfriend.  It's likely to be a big problem for the Cards.  Almost all their scoring - 80% of it - came from a big four of Jones, Wayne Blackshear, Montrezl Harrell, and Terry Rozier.  Jones was 3rd of 4 in that group, and the starting point guard.  Their first game without him (besides his original suspension) was last night in Atlanta, and Louisville barely squeezed past GT.  They're almost dead-certain to be the loser in the five-team derby for four double-byes, and could even find themselves leapfrogged by a few teams like Pitt and NC State, who are two losses back but have way easier schedules.

-- Rutgers is a pretty bad lacrosse team, so beating them by nine goals is nice but nothing to get over-hyped about, even with a very nice performance by Matt Barrett in net.  We'll see how the ACC schedule goes.  But they do have a very good faceoff man in Joe Nardella, who won 63% of his faceoffs last year and only 9 of 19 against the Hoos.  I'm duly impressed.  And it was Jason Murphy, who had a lousy season opener, who did most of the best work, winning 8 of 11.  Chalk up to fortunate clash of styles, or genuine optimism for the future?  Well, Syracuse is next, with Ben Williams winning 47 of 67 so far this year.  We'll find out.

blip

At risk of blasting my own horn (oh hell, that's the whole point of this entire endeavor) I did something during the Duke game that's usually almost impossible to pull off: I pegged the game's turning point as it happened.  Most of the time you have to do that in retrospect, unless the game is really close and then suddenly it's not.  In this case UVA held a pretty safe lead before it happened, and a pretty safe lead after.  KenPom's win probability graph had UVA's chances moving from about 98% to 96%.  Who'd have thunk?

Well, me, when that tiny little knife in the pit of the stomach made its appearance on a Tyus Jones three-pointer shortly after a Justin Anderson miss on the same.  Anderson's shot was thisclose to going down; Jones hit nothing but net, and the result was a six-point swing.  No, it was more than six points - it was the entire spectrum of Duke's confidence.  Jones gave them their fortitude back, ten seconds after it was two inches from disappearing entirely.

As much as I'd like to move that number one from the loss column to the rankings column, at least we know what it takes to beat UVA these days: six-of-eight shooting on three pointers, and all of the last four.  After Anderson missed, that's what Duke did, en route to not missing a shot in the last four minutes of the game.  You know what?  Great.  Duplicate that formula and you've finally figured out the trick to beating Virginia Kentucky everyone up to and including the '92 Dream Team.

The rest of the week - no disrespect at all to the opponents involved - was surprisingly easy.  It's all relative, of course - it wasn't, like, Harvard-easy.  UNC and Louisville put up a fight, albeit not for 40 full minutes.  It's easier to do, of course, when one game is at home and the other is in one of the ACC less-intimidating atmospheres.  (Seriously, is there a team anywhere else, outside of Chapel Hill, where the ratio of powerhouse-ery to crowd atmosphere is so huge?)  Theory on this: these three teams are completely on another level athletically, above and beyond what UVA's gotten used to seeing the past month (or more) and it took a little time to get used to.  When they did, which was right about halftime of the UNC game, the game slowed down again.

I've been including the upcoming NC State game in the stretch of doom calculations, but if you believe the above theory, it might be more of a blowout than I've been assuming.  I mean, BeeJay Anya's a pretty good player, but once you've tried to score on Montrezl Harrell, can it be that much harder?  I still think it's a dangerous game.

That said, the chances are excellent that UVA loses just one game the rest of the way at the most, which should worry a league that all sits at least two losses behind.  Beating Duke would've been great and all, but there isn't a soul among us who wouldn't have taken two out of those last three, if offered beforehand.  And UVA has held double-digit leads in all three games.  Despite the loss, this was a test passed with flying colors so far; if they finish the final portion of it, another long and relatively relaxing stretch awaits.

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-- It's been a while since I wrote this, so it was of course bound to rear its ugly head in a huge way: We still can't have nice things.  Justin Anderson's fractured finger capped a very rough injury stretch (at least, I really hope that capped it) in which UVA lost its top scorer in basketball, top hitter in baseball, and top defenseman in lacrosse.  Already thin from the transfer loss of Greg Danseglio, the lacrosse team really could not afford losing Tanner Scales to an Achilles' heel, but it did anyway.  Joe McCarthy's back surgery leaves a gaping hole in the lineup.  And of course, something had to be up when Evan Nolte started the second half.

Weirdly, even in a game where Anderson got hurt, Marial Shayok only got four minutes.  I might automatically assume he and Nolte would pick up most of Anderson's minutes, if not for that stat.  It's still logical, but Tony's been tinkering with the back end of the lineup a bit and I wouldn't make any hard-and-fast guesses for NC State, let alone four weeks from now.  Good news is there's a reasonable chance Anderson is back for postseason play.

-- You have to love Syracuse, which could at any time have chosen to take a postseason sanction but chose to do it in the middle of a season that wasn't likely to land them in the NCAAs anyway.... and then throw a pity party for Rakeem Christmas's playoff dreams.  Does it suck that Christmas's Syracuse career ends without any tournaments of any kind?  Yes, but to avoid that, Syracuse might have had to feel a little more pain from the self-sanction.  So Christmas gets thrown to the wolves, and just for a bonus, gets to be used by Syracuse as the face of their passive-aggressive campaign against having to bear such a brutal punishment.  How cynical.

-- Sometimes the basketball gods are just.  Not when they put Anderson's finger in a splint, no, but take Darion Atkins.  Atkins dogged a Louisville player into a turnover just seconds after a defensive rebound, giving the Hoos the ball right back.... and then Atkins scored on the ensuing possession.  Feed the guy who made the play - I like it.

-- I was reminded again why I like Doris Burke.  75% of sideline reporters ask the stupidest %@#&ing questions, mostly: "describe your emotions."  Burke pinpointed a matchup she wanted to ask about - and made a good choice - and in doing so gave Tony Bennett an opportunity to sing the praises of a deserving player, which he proceeded to do.

-- Lacrosse starts the season the same way as last year: a one-goal win over Loyola.  Now that the season is underway, that would be a good time to write a season preview, yes?  This week.  Short version of the game: offense good, defense eh.

-- I put together the next round of ACC simulations, but that's gonna wait til Tuesday also.  So now here they are:

UVA is a frightening lock for the 1 seed; it'd take a mathematically unlikely face-fall to drop out of the top spot.  What's a bit more surprising is the tight grip Duke has on #2, and UNC on #5.  Neither have much of a schedule left, except each other.  KenPom likes GT a lot more than the standings show, though, and UNC also has to visit Miami; that, combined with Duke's higher pythag, accounts for a lot of the difference.  Fortunately, it makes sense; Duke owns the tiebreaker on everyone in the top 5 except for UNC, who they haven't played yet.  By virtue of being the only team to beat UVA while the rest of the contenders have all lost, they're in great shape.

This is a great year to show off the excellence of the tourney format; five great teams looking for four double-bye slots.  It might not matter early, because the first opponent will be a putz (either #12 or #13) and then you play the 4 seed anyway, but the extra game might de-freshen the legs a little as the tourney heads toward Sunday.

Me, I'd definitely welcome a Sunday rematch of last year's final.  Both teams would be motivated by recent losses to the other, and the chance to beat Duke two years in a row would spark whispery but unmistakeable changing-of-the-guard talk.  Not to be premature or anything.

flip

I could've told Louisville fans that Bobby Petrino's QB switch wasn't going to work.  You could've told them.  Maybe you even did.  It was obvious because we've seen that movie before.  Louisville fans, they've been a bit spoiled what with Teddy Bridgewater running the show lately, and I think they've noticed.  Reggie Bonnafon wasn't going to stop Max Valles from channeling Brent Urban, nor make Daquan Romero and Anthony Harris any worse at sniffing out screens, nor make Eli Harold turn off beast mode.

Watching someone else go through the quarterback gyrations, though, that by itself is satisfying enough.  Especially since our own problems should be solved.  (Should be, because the history of this staff doesn't allow for absolute pronunciations where this position is concerned.)  One QB controversy starts, another (mostly) ends - such is the rankings-shuffling nature of college football in September.  Just like that, the script is flipped.

I don't know if this is only temporary.  It feels like the kind of win that you could point to, months later, and say, "that was the turning point, right there."  It also feels like it could be fools' gold - but just the feeling that you did strike gold is good enough for now, and in deference to the pure positivity that should emanate from being 1-0 in the ACC after being 0-8, negative details are excised from this post and put off til later.

Last week, some Louisville sportswriter wrote a boilerplate column that called UVA "Northwestern with a larger stadium and lovelier campus."  The whole thing would've been infuriating if it weren't so damn irrefutable.  That's pretty much how folks have been viewing UVA lately, whether we wanted to believe it or not.  Now instead of the ACC's worst team facing the #21 team in the country, UVA has more votes than Louisville in the media poll this week.  Flip.

The general feeling these days is that there are seven teams in the Coastal and any one of them could win it.  Actually, what interests me is this: Rare is the year in which all teams in a division are bowl-eligible (it's only happened once since 2002, in the ACC Atlantic) and it could certainly happen this year.  For UVA to hold up its end of the bargain, the upcoming BYU game is a big one.  Win it, and UVA should only need to find two more wins in ACC play (Kent State is horrendous.)  Lose it, and we need three - the difference looms large.

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Predictions time.

-- No UVA RB tops 70 yards rushing.  Correct, as Kevin Parks came closest with 66.  Parks's run to seal up the win, though, was Manly Man Football at its finest.  Have I mentioned I'm a fan?

 -- Canaan Severin builds on his Richmond game, with at least five more catches.  Severin had a nice little four-catch game, but only managed 19 yards.  I probably got a little carried away with what constitutes a good game, but the fact remains that Severin looks like he's starting to live up to his four-star rating.

 -- Greyson Lambert begins to take hold of the QB job, with stats that start to separate him from Johns. For one, he throws no picks while Johns throws at least one.  Well, Lambert threw a pick, but I'm gonna break this up into two predictions because I think I deserve credit for the the first one.  So that's a make and a miss.  But a pretty big make.

 -- Will Gardner completes 2/3 of his passes or more.

 -- UVA's sack numbers fall to no more than two.  On both of these, it's obvious I didn't give the pass defense enough credit.  Gardner was something like 1-for-13 at one point.  The Hoos had three sacks, two picks, and eleven PBUs.  They're on pace to break up 92 passes.  And everyone is getting in on the sacktion; Henry Coley, in case you're wondering, is on pace for 24 TFLs and 14 sacks.  This is a good-ass defense, which, if they're not careful, might start to get some major national recognition for it.

 -- Louisville has at least twice as many passing yards as running yards.  Now you're talking.  I mean, Louisville's pass offense wasn't much, but their run game was stuffed - this prediction comes true even when removing sacks from the equation.

Prediction stats on the year:

5-for-13 specifics
1-1 straight up
0-1 ATS

There are some negatives to take away that'll leak out probably in next week's game preview.  Til then, bask in the ACC-undefeatedness of it all, and send a little love East Carolina's way while you're at it.

game preview: Louisville

Date/Time: Saturday, September 13; 12:30

TV: ESPN3

Record against the Cardinals: 1-1

Last meeting: UVA 16, UL 15; 10/28/89, Charlottesville

Last weekend: UVA 45, UR 13; UL 66, Murr. St. 21

Line: Louisville by 6.5

Injury report:

Virginia:

OUT: CB Demetrious Nicholson, OT Jay Whitmire
DOUBTFUL: None
QUESTIONABLE: CB Drequan Hoskey, OT Sadiq Olanrewaju
PROBABLE: None

Louisville:

OUT:
DOUBTFUL:
QUESTIONABLE:
PROBABLE:

Coming to town is a team that UVA has played twice in about 120 years of football; the Hoos have longer histories with Western Michigan and Tulane than the Cardinals.  So it's only natural that they should be a permanent rival, right, ACC?  There's no need to work on the schedule or realign or anything.

This shouldn't be taken as a slap to Louisville (who themselves would rather be lined up with Cuse or something) because if I actually hated Louisville I'd want to play them more. We can lay claim to the South's Oldest Rivalry, and now we can add the South's (nay, the World's) Most Artificial Rivalry too.

Oh well.  It's a conference game, so it's important, and, even though Kentucky has as much Atlantic coastline as British Columbia, I always saw the ACC as a southern conference rather than an eastern one.  Louisville's a reasonable fit along those lines.  And since we do have to deal with these guys every year for who knows how long, we might as well beat 'em.

-- UVA run offense vs. UL run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 30 carries, 107 yards, 3.6 ypc, 1 TD
Taquan Mizzell: 17 carries, 47 yards. 2.8 ypc, 1 TD

UVA offense:
138.5 yards/game, 3.51 yards/attempt
98th of 127 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)

UL defense:
55.5 yards/game, 2.41 yards/attempt
22nd of 127 (national), 2nd of 14 (ACC)

I get the feeling this is going to be a yearlong issue.  It may be bad enough to sink the good ship London.  It was easy to rationalize a tough day against UCLA; Richmond, not so much.  Steve Fairchild gets a lot of flak for using the short passing game too much.  I think part of the reason he does that is, that's the running game.

Injuries have certainly not helped the matter, and there's a chance that situation could improve a little this week.  Sadiq Olanrewaju has missed the first two games, but he could be available on Saturday.  To tell the truth, I don't think it'll make a huge noticeable difference.  The problem is the lack of push in the middle.

Evaluating Louisville's run defense is tricky, since half of the sample is Murray State, which of course they dominated.  The linebackers have done well so far, with 6 TFLs among them, exactly what you'd expect from a 3-4 defense.  What makes things tricky for UVA is that the Cards also more or less shut down Duke Johnson of Miami, who needed 20 carries to get to 90 yards.  That by itself is plenty reason enough to think Louisville's defense is more than capable of winning this week's matchup.

It'll be interesting to see, if Olanrewaju is healthy enough to play - does he start, and if so, how does the lineup get shuffled?  Mooney to guard, or back to second string?  I suspect it'd mean more rotation than we've had in the first two games.  Unlike many 3-4 defenses, Louisville doesn't have three battleship-sized linemen, owing to the fact that it's their first year in the system, so there's a little hope for some up-front push.  But I wouldn't expect things to suddenly improve by half a yard a carry.

-- UVA pass offense vs. UL pass defense

Quarterbacks:
Greyson Lambert: 29/38, 76.3%; 214 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs; 5.63 yards/attempt
Matt Johns: 17/29, 58.6%; 219 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT; 7.55 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Taquan Mizzell: 11 rec., 41 yards, 0 TDs
Darius Jennings: 7 rec., 118 yards, 1 TD
Canaan Severin: 7 rec., 88 yards, 2 TDs

UVA offense:
219.5 yards/game, 6.5 yards/attempt
86th of 127 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)

UL defense:
212.5 yards/game, 6.3 yards/attempt
57th of 127 (national), 7th of 14 (ACC)

Yes, it's infuriating to list two quarterbacks.  Mike London said something after the UCLA game about rotating quarterbacks being no different than rotating the other positions on the field, which eerily mirrors something Al Groh said when he couldn't decide between Matt Schaub and Bryson Spinner.  For the sake of his own tenure, I wish London could make a damn decision.  I'd say that I want one of them to separate himself, but that's basically saying "I hope one of them sucks."  So, no.

The good news is that there's some signs of breakout in the receiving corps.  Canaan Severin had a big game against Richmond and appears to be starting to come into his own, even though he's not listed first-string on the depth chart.  The coaches have raved about Doni Dowling's preparation and rewarded him accordingly, and Darius Jennings is on his way to the kind of production we need from a senior.  A ton of different players have caught passes this year; I suspect this will be a game that starts to narrow the field some.

Fairchild has made a huge concerted effort to get Smoke Mizzell the ball in the passing game; small wonder, as he came in with a reputation as an advanced pass-catcher for a running back.  The problem is, it hasn't worked.  Mizzell is averaging a puny 3.7 yards a catch, barely enough for a first down if you tried it three times in a row.  Neither the running backs nor the tight ends have been anything close to a reliable threat in the passing game, which is putting more pressure on the receivers.

Fortunately, the O-line has done a decent job of pass protection, at least on paper.  The only sack was a garbage-time sack on David Watford by Richmond.  That's the good news.  The bad news is, I think that's a bit misleading.  The O-line spoke proudly of not having allowed a sack against UCLA, but left out the time a UCLA linebacker ran back an INT on account of Lambert almost getting killed by the rush.  Plus, our QB's haven't exactly been doing a seven-step drop.  The short passing game contributes a lot to the lack of opposing pass rush.

For their part, Louisville hasn't generated a great deal of pressure, so UVA's quarterbacks should at least be grass-stain free, for the most part.  The Cards did intercept Miami's Brad Kaaya twice, but five of their seven PBUs were against Murray State.  Their pass defense appears to be a little behind their run defense in adapting to the 3-4.

I do see one big potential advantage for UVA: A short passing game like we tend to run, forces the linebackers into coverage fairly often, and UL's linebackers are mostly converted D-linemen from the 4-3.  Can they cover the slot as consistently as Fairchild will probably make them?  We'll see.

-- UL run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Dominique Brown: 38 carries, 183 yards, 4.8 ypc, 2 TDs
Brandon Radcliff: 15 carries, 97 yards, 6.5 ypc, 2 TDs

UL offense:
227.5 yards/game, 4.95 yards/attempt
48th of 127 (national), 6th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
87.5 yards/game, 2.50 yards/attempt
24th of 127 (national), 3rd of 14 (ACC)

Louisville was supposed to have a tandem this year - according to plan, Michael Dyer would've split carries with Dominique Brown in a classic thunder-and-lightning combo.  The lightning is missing, leaving 235-pound thunderback Brown to take the carries.

Brown was held back from most of the Murray State game after topping 30 carries and 140+ yards against Miami, likely to keep him healthy.  If Dyer's sore thigh keeps him out again this weekend, Brown will probably carry the ball most of the time, with L.J. Scott first in line to spell him.  Scott piled up yards against Murray State, but only had three carries (and went nowhere) against Miami.

The UVA defense, though, is easily Louisville's toughest test so far.  Henry Coley and Daquan Romero are two dominant linebackers.  Possibly the most interesting development, though, is Max Valles's ten tackles.  Early returns on Valles are that he's becoming the all-around player UVA needs him to be.  He's been a presence in the run game, which gives UVA three outstanding linebackers, and he's been joined by Eli Harold, who's coming along the same path.  Louisville has a competent running game, but they're the ones not sleeping easy in this matchup.

-- UL pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Will Gardner: 33/50, 66.0%; 339 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs; 6.78 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Eli Rogers: 10 rec., 110 yards, 0 TDs
Gerald Christian: 9 rec., 91 yards, 2 TDs
Kai De La Cruz: 6 rec., 63 yards, 1 TD

UL offense:
242.0 yards/game, 7.2 yards/attempt
64th of 127 (national), 5th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
302.5 yards/game, 7.5 yards/attempt
92nd of 127 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

Now that is surprising - I did not at all expect to see UVA sitting on the very bottom of the conference in pass defense.  Thinking back, maybe it shouldn't be.  Richmond moved the ball pretty well through the air.  We haven't had our top cornerback - Tra Nicholson - in the game all season, and he won't be back for this one either.  This plus DreQuan Hoskey's questionable status means lots of Tim Harris, and Harris has been getting picked on all season.  He's been very obviously bad so far, getting beaten for most of the big plays UVA has given up.

On the plus side, the pass rush has been among the best in the country.  Valles has been a particular fiend, but there are players along the line (Harold, for example) who've been getting a lot more push than their sack numbers show.

Louisville's Will Gardner has been plenty effective so far, in his first season at the helm.  Gardner carved up Miami pretty effectively, to the tune of 20 completions on 28 attempts, and two touchdowns.  And he's done it without the help of DeVante Parker, who was expected to be one of the top receivers in the league.  Parker underwent foot surgery, oh, right about the exact same time I wrote my ACC preview.  Louisville hasn't found a huge big-play threat yet so far, with Eli Rogers, Kai De La Cruz, and James Quick, plus TE Gerald Christian, all averaging only about 10 yards per catch.  But they've all been dependable, and Louisville has moved the ball well in the passing game.

With Gardner owning a high completion rate, and UVA allowing one, it's plenty likely we'll see more of the same there.  UVA's CB depth is being sorely tested, and the Hoos haven't pressed up much in coverage - something Louisville will be happy to take advantage of.  The pass rush needs to be consistent all day, as any letup will probably result in a long scoring drive.

-- Favorability ratings

- UVA run offense: 3
- UVA pass offense: 3.5
- UVA run defense: 6.5
- UVA pass defense: 4

Average: 4.25

-- Outlook

Look around a bit and you can find a few pundits picking UVA in this one.  Cool, but I think a lot of that is based on a good showing against possibly-overrated UCLA.  I gotta see more out of the run game, a pass game that legitimately threatens some explosive plays no matter who's under center, and better cornerback play.  Louisville should be well-equipped to nullify a lot of our advantage in pass defense, and seems likely to overcome our defense just enough to hold off our offense.

-- Predictions

-- No UVA RB tops 70 yards rushing.

-- Canaan Severin builds on his Richmond game, with at least five more catches.

-- Greyson Lambert begins to take hold of the QB job, with stats that start to separate him from Johns.  For one, he throws no picks while Johns throws at least one.

-- Will Gardner completes 2/3 of his passes or more.

-- UVA's sack numbers fall to no more than two.

-- Louisville has at least twice as many passing yards as running yards.

Final score: UL 24, UVA 14

-- Rest of the ACC

Virginia Tech vs. East Carolina - 12:00 - It'd be really cool if VT's win over Ohio State last week means that OSU actually really sucks.  Indirectly, an ECU win (which has happened before) would really knock the Big Ten off its hinges.

Georgia Tech vs. Georgia Southern - 12:00 - Georgia Southern very nearly knocked off NC State in the season opener.

Pittsburgh @ Florida Int'l - 12:00 - Why is an ACC team visiting FIU?  Recruiting, probably, but c'mon.

Syracuse @ Central Michigan - 12:00 - Cuse doesn't even have that excuse.

Miami vs. Arkansas State - 3:30 - Things are bad in Hooville when ESPNU picks this game over a conference matchup.

NC State @ South Florida - 3:30 - NC State has been playing with fire in its comparatively weak OOC schedule, and now goes on the road just to turn up the heat a bit.

Duke vs. Kansas - 3:30 - Charlie Weis is the country's greatest offensive genius, if you're asking Charlie Weis.  This would be a good chance for him to take some notes.

Wake Forest @ Utah State - 7:00 - This rounds out the sweep; ACC teams are playing opponents from all of the so-called Group of Five conferences this week.

Boston College vs. USC - 8:00 - Not gonna be pretty.

2014 season preview: Louisville Cardinals

Schedule:

9/1: Miami (Mon.)
9/6: Murray State
9/13: @ Virginia
9/20: @ Florida Int'l
9/27: Wake Forest
10/3: @ Syracuse (Fri.)
10/11: @ Clemson
10/18: NC State
10/25: BYE
10/30: Florida State (Thu.)
11/8: @ Boston College
11/15: BYE
11/22: @ Notre Dame
11/29: Kentucky

Skip: Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech

2013 results:

Ohio: W, 49-7
Eastern Kentucky: W, 44-7
Kentucky: W, 27-13
Florida Int'l: W, 72-0
Temple: W, 30-7
Rutgers: W, 24-10
Central Florida: L, 38-35
South Florida: W, 34-3
Connecticut: W, 31-10
Houston: W, 20-13
Memphis: W, 24-17
Cincinnati: W, 31-24
Miami: W, 36-9 (RA Bowl)

Record: 12-1 (7-1); 2nd, AAC

Projected starters:

QB: Will Gardner (rSo.)
RB: Dominique Brown (5Sr.)
WR: DeVante Parker (Sr.)
WR: Eli Rogers (Sr.)
WR: Michaelee Harris (5Sr.)
TE: Gerald Christian (5Sr.)
LT: Jamon Brown (Sr.)
LG: John Miller (Sr.)
C: Jake Smith (5Sr.)
RG: Ryan Mack (rJr.)
RT: Kelby Johnson (Jr.)

DE: Sheldon Rankins (Jr.)
NT: DeAngelo Brown (rSo.)
DE: B.J. DuBose (5Sr.)
SLB: Deiontrez Mount (Sr.)
ILB: Nick Dawson-Brents (rSo.)
ILB: James Burgess (Jr.)
WLB: Lorenzo Mauldin (Sr.)
CB: Charles Gaines (rJr.)
CB: Terrell Floyd (Sr.)
SS: Gerod Holliman (rSo.)
FS: Jarrod Barnes (rSo.)

K: John Wallace (rJr.)
P: Ryan Johnson (5Sr.)

(Italics indicate new starter.)

Coach: Bobby Petrino (1st season) (Petrino also coached Louisville from 2003-2006.)

Media prediction: 3rd, Atlantic

All-conference:

2013 1st team: WR DeVante Parker, C Jake Smith, DL Marcus Smith, CB Charles Gaines, S Calvin Pryor, S Hakeem Smith
2013 2nd team: QB Teddy Bridgewater, OG John Miller, DL Lorenzo Brown, LB Preston Brown
2014 preseason: WR DeVante Parker

(Italics indicate departed player.)

Louisville has impeccable timing.  Charlie Strong, brought in from Florida for his first head coaching gig, passed that test with flying colors.  The Cardinals' methodical demolition of the Gators a couple years ago shined the spotlight on them, and they parlayed the publicity into a lifeboat from the second tier of college football.  As Maryland's replacement, they're considered an athletic upgrade, particularly in football.

Last year the Cardinals came within a hair of an undefeated season, and their failure to do so dropped them from the BCS into a bowl that's considered mid-level at best, highlighting the clout (or lack thereof) of the conference they're leaving behind.  Despite bringing back a familiar name to replace Strong (Bobby Petrino, trying to rehab his image after a series of decisions that made him look like a complete ass) Louisville will probably be hard-pressed to repeat their 12-1 standard they set last year.

-- Offense

It's always a challenge to replace a franchise quarterback.  Redshirt sophomore Will Gardner emerged during the spring as the clear choice to step into the shoes left behind by Teddy Bridgewater.  Gardner's game experience is extremely limited, but he stands 6'5" and possesses a strong throwing arm; more importantly, he's got an army of veteran talent supporting him.

Louisville expects a very big season out of senior receiver DeVante Parker, who caught 12 touchdowns last year and led the team with 855 receiving yards as well.  Parker is considered one of the top receivers in the ACC, but he's far from the only senior in the skill-position corps.  The Cardinals also have slippery slot receiver Eli Rogers, and a pair of experienced complementary targets in Kai De La Cruz and Michaelee Harris.  Both can be dangerous when healthy; the problem is, neither has been, Harris in particular.  Harris has a pair of ACL tears on his medical history, and De La Cruz spent most of last year fighting off a hamstring injury.  Tight end Gerald Christian, also a senior, provides some big play ability as well, and is a consistent and dependable passcatcher.

There's also a solid complement of running backs, starting with senior Dominique Brown.  Brown split carries with Senorise Perry last year, but with Perry off to the NFL, Brown could see his workload increase, and push his season yardage total over the 1,000 mark from the 825 he racked up last year.  He's built for the job - Brown is a big, powerful back standing 6'2", 235.  Louisville also boasts a BCS national championship MVP, Michael Dyer, a bowling-ball back who sat 2012 after transferring from Auburn, then missed the second half of last season with injuries.

The line is the picture of stability on the left side.  Jamon Brown has experience at both right and left tackle, starting all of 2012 on the right side before moving to the left last year.  John Miller will be entering his fourth season as the starter at left guard this year.  At center, Jake Smith looks as though he'll return for a second season as the starter in the middle; Smith has experience at guard as well, and moved to center in 2013.  Petrino has considered moving him back to RG, but he looks likely to stick at center.  That makes RG up for grabs, even though Ryan Mack started 12 games there last year.  Mack is the likely frontrunner to keep that job, largely because very few other linemen on the Louisville roster can claim much experience.  The early favorite for right tackle is juco transfer Kelby Johnson - yes, the very same who once looked like a possible heir apparent for that position at UVA.

There aren't too many question marks on this offense - a few, but not big ones.  Uncertain depth on the line and some competitions on the right side, plus, of course, the ability of Gardner to catch up to the responsibilities of his new job under center.  Gardner will have good protection, though, and should have no excuses from his very veteran receiving corps.  Dyer makes for an exciting X-factor for the Louisville offense as well.  Dominique Brown is more than capable of being the workhorse, but Dyer, if he settles down from a fairly troubled college career so far, can give the Cardinals a new wrinkle for the running game.  This offense isn't the very best you'll find in the ACC, but it should keep Louisville in contention most of the season.

-- Defense

Todd Grantham came over from UGA to take over the Louisville defense, bringing the 3-4 scheme with him.  That makes things interesting in Louisville, particularly in the linebacking corps.  Combining some losses to graduation with the new 3-4 scheme means that the linebackers largely consist of converted defensive ends.  Only ILB James Burgess was a true linebacker last season; Burgess is the leading returning tackler with 72.  Lorenzo Mauldin was a full-time starter as a DE last season, and he was a good one, recording 9 sacks and 12 TFL and getting his paws on a few passes too.  This year, Mauldin is the strong-side linebacker, so the role won't be completely unfamiliar as he'll probably spend quite a bit of time with his hand on the ground anyway.

Nick Dawson-Brents, a big, heavy player for a college linebacker at 265 pounds, is another DE convert, now slated to start at ILB.  He'll be pushed hard, though, by Keith Kelsey, who had 24 tackles as a reserve LB last season, his redshirt freshman year.  On the weak side, Louisville figures to use senior Deiontrez Mount, an occasional starter at (you guessed it) DE during the past three years.  Louisville is not without some depth at linebacker, but it's still likely to be a rocky beginning at first.

Up front, Louisville has the big heavies you need for a 3-4 defensive line, but as with linebacker it's a totally reworked unit thanks to several graduations.  320-pound sophomore DeAngelo Brown, who sat last season with an Achilles tear, gets first crack at nose tackle.  Another 300-pounder, Sheldon Rankins, will start off at one of the end spots, while senior B.J. Dubose - who's had a rather up-and-down career - will take the other.  Dubose has shown promise in the past three years but has never been able to break through regularly into the starting lineup until now.  Rankins brings a lot of potential to the table; he had three sacks last year in fairly limited time.  Including 335-pound redshirt freshman Johnny Richardson, who will rotate in at nose tackle, Louisville has the size necessary to succeed up front in the 3-4; they badly lack experience, however, having nobody with any significant number of starts under their belt.

Secondary is still a fluid situation, as - once again - Louisville was hit hard by graduation, this time to the safety corps.  Cornerback is in very good shape, with starters Charles Gaines (5 picks in 2013) and Terrell Floyd (4 picks) both returning.  Floyd is expected to play a very versatile role this year, moving all around the field and playing some safety in addition to his cornerback duties.  Louisville has a pretty good idea who will start at strong safety; Gerod Holliman did a solid job during his apprenticeship last year and is ready for the big-time.  But free safety remains almost totally undetermined for now, hence the expected rotation of the veteran Floyd.

Transition years to brand-new schemes are often a huge challenge; this looks like no exception, particularly with a great deal of uncertainty and guys playing new positions at the all-important linebacker spots.  The line will probably be adequate, since size is sometimes all you need, but safety and linebacker is a really tough combo of positions to have such fluidity.

-- Special teams

John Wallace is a reasonably accurate kicker, but he doesn't have much range; his season long was 43 last year and his career long is 45.  Plus, he's managed to miss six extra points the last two seasons.  Ryan Johnson is a good enough punter, but not a weapon.

-- Outlook

Just looking at the offense, you can see why Louisville is the projected third team in their division conference-within-a-conference.  For one thing, the challengers are not that inspiring, and for another, Parker and Brown command respect for good reason.  If Gardner proves a quick study, the Cardinals will create some major fireworks.  But they could lose games 49-42 just as easily.  The defense doesn't have a single legitimate star; Floyd probably comes closest to that ideal, but there's a risk of spreading him too thin.  The cornerbacks are legit, but the whole rest of the defense outside of perhaps Burgess is going off potential right now, and in some cases, not that high of potential.  The offense plus 11 traffic cones could get this team to bowl eligibility, and the first half of the schedule is not at all intimidating; they'll probably finish it 5-1 or 6-0.  But the likely ceiling here is 9 wins at most.  A 7-9 win season will get them to a decent bowl and a respectable debut in the ACC, but there's a pretty big gap between them and the Coastal's top two, and there's probably an upset waiting for them somewhere.

the school: Louisville

That sound you heard on the first of July was that of a door hitting a turtle in the butt.  Conference realignment, except for a few stragglers next year (mainly Navy joining the AAC) drags itself to a welcome (though likely temporary) halt with Maryland making their move to the Midwest official and a Midwesternish / Southernish school taking their place.

I'm sort of warming to the idea of Louisville in the ACC, because personally I've always thought of the ACC as mainly a southern conference rather than an eastern one.  So while I find Notre Dame's presence still a bit unsettling, a school in the state of Kentucky seems to work.

Like last year with the three new additions, we need to profile this one, especially since they're UVa's default rival for no other reason than they're Maryland's replacement.  I don't care for this, by the way.  It's nothing personal, Louisvillians.  You guys seem so darn happy to be here, I can't begrudge it, and who can blame you when this is basically a lifeboat to the big time?  It's just that I'm a little annoyed at the laziness of the league; Louisville is not a school for whom I can work up as healthy a hatred as I had (have) for Maryland, and would prefer they juggle things a bit to make the rivalries a little more traditional.  That said, I think this is a very temporary situation, at least in football.  Do not be surprised if, by the end of the year, a new scheduling model comes out.

I digress, though.  Last year we looked at each newcomer's prowess through the lens of the Director's Cup, and we'll do the same again.  As an added bonus, we'll also compare to Maryland.  It's only natural, really.  There's a feeling, in general, that Louisville is actually an upgrade athletically, so we'll find out if it's true.

First, the general profile. 16,151

Enrollment (undergrad):

1. Florida State - 31,851
x. Maryland - 26,826
2. NC State - 25,176
3. Virginia Tech - 22,824
4. North Carolina - 18,579
5. Pittsburgh - 18,427
6. Clemson - 16,931
7. Louisville - 16,151
8. Virginia - 16,087
9. Syracuse - 15,097
10. Georgia Tech - 14,558
11. Miami - 11,044
12. Boston College - 9,110
13. Notre Dame - 8,475
14. Duke - 6,495
15. Wake Forest - 4,815

The ACC loses a large flagship institution, which is going to a conference comprised of almost nothing but large flagship institutions.  Louisville is no flagship, but is practically UVa's twin in terms of size.

Academic rank (USN&WR):

1. Duke - #7
2. Notre Dame - #18
3(t). Virginia - #23
3(t). Wake Forest - #23
5. North Carolina - #30
6. Boston College - #31
7. Georgia Tech - #36
8. Miami - #47
9(t). Clemson - #62
9(t). Syracuse - #62
9(t). Pittsburgh - #62
x. Maryland - #62
12. Virginia Tech - #69
13. Florida State - #91
14. NC State - #101
15. Louisville - #161

So about that.  Louisville was originally considered sort of an outside option at best, because of academic rankings that fall a long way outside of the usual standard for ACC schools.  The words "commuter school" have been bandied about, and while there's likely a ring of truth to that, it's largely unfair.  (Louisville claims about 6,000 residents of its dorms and various on-campus living, which is probably not very different from UVa.)   Cooler heads eventually prevailed - ones more interested in the preservation of the conference than preservation of conference-killing standards - and Louisville's ranking ceased to be a factor.  (Look, it's not like UVa is any less of a school for being in a conference with one in the triple digits.)  For the record, UConn (widely considered to be the other "finalist") fits in somewhere between Miami and the four-way tie - but then, Louisville hasn't been banned from the NCAA tournament for never graduating its basketball players.  So there's more than one side to the academics coin.

Directors' Cup average:**

1. Florida State - 8.4
2. North Carolina - 8.6
3. Virginia - 9.8
4. Duke - 10.4
5. Notre Dame - 14.8
x. Maryland - 29.6
6. Louisville - 35
7. Virginia Tech - 38.2
8. Syracuse - 52
9. Clemson - 52.2
10. NC State - 53.6
11. Miami - 60.6
12. Boston College - 65.6
13. Georgia Tech - 67.8
14. Wake Forest - 77.4
15. Pittsburgh - 112.2

**average finish in the last five years, including 2014

In terms of straight average, Louisville comes in a little less than Maryland, but it's not like the difference is huge.  Maryland took a drop recently that coincides a bit with chopping programs and losing money (the ACC has been withholding revenue-sharing from them to pay for their exit fee) while Louisville has been very steadily in the 30s the last four years, and #41 in 2010.  They got to #30 this year, just nipping Maryland at #32.  Anywhere in the top 40 or so, you can pat yourself on the back for a pretty strong program in general.  If the general conjecture is true, both Maryland and Louisville should see a bump in their performance in a few years; the fact that the Cardinals have been doing this without the benefit of major-conference money is reasonably impressive, and they were the only top-40 team outside the big five conferences this year.

Sports we play that they don't

Men:

Lacrosse
Wrestling

Women:

none

Sports they play that we don't

Men:

none

Women:

none

Pretty simple list here, and if I hadn't standardized it the last three times I did this, I wouldn't have done it here, either.  Our women's sports are exactly the same as theirs.  Our men play lacrosse and rasslin', and there exists a small bit of hope that the extra money coming into the Louisville program will be incentive enough to fix that issue when it comes to lacrosse.

Common sports

**Note: The numbers after each year are the Director's Cup points scored in that season.

Men's cross country

2009-2010: 28 (Md. 0; UVA 45)
2010-2011: 18 (Md. 0; UVA 40)
2011-2012: 0 (Md. 0; UVA 0)
2012-2013: 0 (Md. 0; UVA 61.5)
2013-2014: 0 (Md. 0; UVA 63)

Totals: 46; 0; 209.5

Women's cross country

2009-2010: 0 (Md. 0; UVA 45)
2010-2011: 0 (Md. 0; UVA 32)
2011-2012: 0 (Md. 0; UVA 34)
2012-2013: 0 (Md. 0; UVA 0)
2013-2014: 0 (Md. 0; UVA 69)

Totals: 0; 0; 180

We begin with a sport where there won't be much threat to whatever it is that UVa's doing.  Maryland's cross-country teams always ran at the back of the ACC pack - and they no longer have a men's team - and Louisville will be an improvement, but no threat to win ACC titles.

Field hockey

2009-2010: 0 (Md. 90; UVa 83)
2010-2011: 0 (Md. 100; UVA 83)
2011-2012: 0 (Md. 100; UVA 0)
2012-2013: 0 (Md. 83; UVA 60)
2013-2014: 0 (Md. 83; UVA 25)

Totals: 0; 456; 251

Interesting dynamic here, really.  Maryland is by far the most successful team of the past decade-plus.  In the last ten years they've missed the final four once and won five national titles.  UVA is something of a perennial bridesmaid in the ACC.  We don't have a single ACC title in the history of the competition; someone, usually Maryland or UNC but sometimes Duke, is always getting in the way.

Louisville, on the other hand, is essentially an NIT-level team.  In men's lacrosse, think Fairfield or Drexel, except without even the rare tournament appearance.  They're constantly losing to UConn or ODU in their conference semifinals.  They'll probably be at least respectable to start.  In the long-term, a move to the obvious "it" conference could give them that boost they need to get over the hump; within the first couple of years, though, the likely upshot is that UVA's path to a conference championship just got a little easier.  (But then, so did UNC's.)

Football

2009-2010: 0 (Md. 0; UVA 0)
2010-2011: 45 (Md. 50; UVA 0)
2011-2012: 25 (Md. 0; UVA 25)
2012-2013: 63 (Md. 0; UVA 0)
2013-2014: 60 (Md. 25; UVA 0)

Totals: 193; 75; 25

Always a little bit of a sleeping giant, Louisville rode Charlie Strong damn near to the top of the football world, culminating in that big Sugar Bowl win over Florida and following that up with a 12-1 season last year.  Strong in turn rode that success to another pinnacle of the football world with a bid to coach at Texas, and so Louisville brought back a guy who they'd had a lot of success with, but whose name became total mud since he'd left: Bobby Petrino.  Dude's a sleaze, but he was also 41-9 at Louisville.

This matters, since UVa will have to play them for the foreseeable future.  Louisville enters the Atlantic Conference and only makes it tougher at the top, adding themselves to the mix with FSU and Clemson.  Whether Randy Edsall was going to make Maryland a threat in the conference is now a moot point; the Cardinals are an upgrade in any case.

Men's soccer

2009-2010: 25 (Md. 73; UVA 100)
2010-2011: 90 (Md. 73; UVA 25)
2011-2012: 73 (Md. 64; UVA 25)
2012-2013: 73 (Md. 83; UVA 50)
2013-2014: 50 (Md. 90; UVA 83)

Totals: 311; 383; 283

The numbers tell the story here.  Traditionally, Maryland is among the strongest teams in men's college soccer, but Louisville is no slouch at all.  UVA, Maryland, Louisville; all three have made appearances in the national championship game in the past five years, and in that time the teams have combined for five Colleg Cup appearances.  The ACC merely replaces one top team with another.

Women's soccer

2009-2010: 0 (Md. 64; UVA 64)
2010-2011: 0 (Md. 50; UVA 64)
2011-2012: 64 (Md. 64; UVA 73)
2012-2013: 0 (Md. 50; UVA 64)
2013-2014: 25 (Md. 0; UVA 83)

Totals: 89; 228; 348

In the women's game, though, things are a little different; they're more like field hockey here.  Again, the ACC is the undisputed 800-pound gorilla of the sport, and Louisville's Big East/AAC results have been up and down.  Maryland could usually hold their own in the conference but wasn't a major contender; Louisville will probably be a downgrade.  Since the last three years saw UVa blow the Terps out of the conference tournament, the change isn't likely to make it any easier to win the conference title for ourselves.

Volleyball

2009-2010: 25 (Md. 0; UVA 0)
2010-2011: 50 (Md. 0; UVA 0)
2011-2012: 50 (Md. 0; UVA 0)
2012-2013: 50 (Md. 0; UVA 0)
2013-2014: 25 (Md. 0; UVA 0)

Totals: 200; 0; 0

Louisville volleyball had a habit of blowing through the Big East like a knife through wet paper and then bowing out of the NCAAs in the first or second round.  This still makes them a hell of a lot better than our team, which is only just working its way onto the plus side of the standings, and also a hell of a lot better than Maryland's team, which hasn't even made it that far.  It is a long climb to an ACC title for UVA, and getting longer with the addition of another contender.

Men's basketball

2009-2010: 25 (Md. 50; UVA 0)
2010-2011: 25 (Md. 0; UVA 0)
2011-2012: 83 (Md. 0; UVA 25)
2012-2013: 100 (Md. 0; UVA 0)
2013-2014: 64 (Md. 0; UVA 64)

Totals: 297; 50; 89

Um, Rick Pitino, y'all.  Let's just add him to a conference with Coach K and Jim Boeheim and Tony Bennett and Roy Williams and Jamie Dixon.  Maryland was - is - spinning its wheels under Mark Turgeon, so the ACC just got a heck of a lot tougher.  Well, for the Georgia Techs of the world, anyway.  I'd like to think that it's Louisville that has to contend with the defending ACC champs, not the other way around.

Women's basketball

2009-2010: 0 (Md. 0; UVA 25)
2010-2011: 64 (Md. 50; UVA 0)
2011-2012: 50 (Md. 73; UVA 0)
2012-2013: 90 (Md. 64; UVA 0)
2013-2014: 73 (Md. 83; UVA 0)

Totals: 277; 187; 25

On the other hand, it's the Hoos that are spinning their wheels on this side of the sport.  Louisville and Maryland both are perennial top-25 teams - or better - so there's not much change from UVA's perspective.  We had a way to go before we could hope to contend, and still do.

Men's swimming and diving

2009-2010: 51 (Md. 0; UVA 67.5)
2010-2011: 57 (Md. 0; UVA 70.5)
2011-2012: 59 (Md. 0; UVA 60)
2012-2013: 66 (Md. 0; UVA 47)
2013-2014: 66 (Md. 0; UVA 48)

Totals: 309; 0; 293

Women's swimming and diving

2009-2010: 52.5 (Md. 48.5; UVA 69)
2010-2011: 26 (Md. 52; UVA 63)
2011-2012: 50 (Md. 38; UVA 57)
2012-2013: 52 (Md. 0; UVA 56)
2013-2014: 60 (Md. 0; UVA 66)

Totals: 240.5; 138.5; 311

Maryland axed their swimming programs a couple years ago, so the upshot here will be to add a team back to the mix.  And a pretty good one, on both ends.  Our men's team finished a miserable fourth at the ACC championships this year, which I don't have to tell you is the proverbial UNACCEPTABLE, and bringing in Louisville adds a potent challenger to the mix.

Baseball

2009-2010: 50 (Md. 0; UVA 64)
2010-2011: 0 (Md. 0; UVA 83)
2011-2012: 50 (Md. 0; UVA 25)
2012-2013: 73 (Md. 0; UVA 64)
2013-2014: 73 (Md. 64; UVA 90)

Totals: 246; 64; 326

Maryland's surprising super regional run notwithstanding, this is a huge and relatively high-profile upgrade.  There aren't cross-division rivals in baseball, so we really have no idea whether we'll even play Louisville right away, but they'll certainly make the pathetic Atlantic rather more worthwhile.  The Cardinals have put in an appearance in Omaha each of the last two seasons; they've never won there, but this move to the ACC can only help them - and the conference.

Men's golf

2009-2010: 0 (Md. 0; UVA 65.25)
2010-2011: 0 (Md. 0; UVA 27.5)
2011-2012: 0 (Md. 0; UVA 51.5)
2012-2013: 0 (Md. 0; UVA 39)
2013-2014: 21.5 (Md. 0; UVA 33.5)

Totals: 21.5; 0; 216.75

Women's golf

2009-2010: 33 (Md. 21; UVA 63)
2010-2011: 40 (Md. 0; UVA 80)
2011-2012: 0 (Md. 24; UVA 80)
2012-2013: 0 (Md. 0; UVA 42)
2013-2014: 20.5 (Md. 0; UVA 61.5)

Totals: 93.5; 45; 326.5

Our men's team isn't a big contender, typically finishing mid-pack in the conference tournament and scraping a few national points here and there.  The women's team, quietly, is one of the better ones in the country; not quite a major contender for the national championship, but they're generally in strong contention for ACC titles.  Maryland is none of the above and Louisville is a bit better, but not going to be a big deal.

Women's lacrosse

2009-2010: 0 (Md. 100; UVA 60)
2010-2011: 0 (Md. 90; UVA 25)
2011-2012: 0 (Md. 83; UVA 25)
2012-2013: 0 (Md. 90; UVA 70)
2013-2014: 53 (Md. 100; UVA 83)

Totals: 53; 463; 263

Again, like field hockey, the ACC is taking a pretty big downgrade here.  Maryland is a powerhouse, and working on a six-year Final Four streak.  Louisville's team is relatively new, playing their first season in 2008.  They've been a mediocre Big East team most of their existence, with the exception of one horrible year in 2012 and one really good one this year.  If they carry that success forward, they'll present a challenge, but the ACC is a much different beast than the Big East, even without Maryland.

Rowing

2009-2010: 0 (Md. 0; UVA 100)
2010-2011: 0 (Md. 0; UVA 63)
2011-2012: 0 (Md. 0; UVA 100)
2012-2013: 0 (Md. 0; UVA 75)
2013-2014: 40 (Md. 0; UVA 75)

Totals: 40; 0; 413

Nothing to see here.  Maryland has no team, so there'll be one extra boat at the ACC championships; regardless, nobody's touching UVA any time soon.

Softball

2009-2010: 50 (Md. 25; UVA 0)
2010-2011: 50 (Md. 25; UVA 0)
2011-2012: 50 (Md. 25; UVA 0)
2012-2013: 25 (Md. 0; UVA 0)
2013-2014: 25 (Md. 0; UVA 0)

Totals: 200; 75; 0

Like rowing, but the other way around.  UVA went 8-43 this year with half a roster.  Yes, that's the nadir, one hopes, but Louisville is too good a team for us to care where they land in the conference.  (Near the top, most likely, but not quite championship material.)

Men's tennis

2009-2010: 64 (Md. 0; UVA 83)
2010-2011: 50 (Md. 50; UVA 90)
2011-2012: 25 (Md. 0; UVA 90)
2012-2013: 0 (Md. 0; UVA 100)
2013-2014: 25 (Md. 0; UVA 83)

Totals: 164; 50; 446

Back to not caring where in the hierarchy they land, so long as it's behind us.  Louisville has a respectable tennis team, but it's about to join the fight for second place.  Actually, playing in a conference will be somewhat new to them; the Big East had a conference tournament but its teams didn't really play each other during the season.  Louisville's been playing against ACC teams more than Big East teams, and the Cardinals more or less split those matches.

Women's tennis

2009-2010: 0 (Md. 0; UVA 50)
2010-2011: 0 (Md. 25; UVA 64)
2011-2012: 0 (Md. 0; UVA 64)
2012-2013: 0 (Md. 0; UVA 64)
2013-2014: 0 (Md. 0; UVA 73)

Totals: 0; 25; 315

Very little to speak of here; Louisville usually has had winning records, but they pad out their schedule with a lot of fluff, and haven't had an invite to the NCAAs since 2008.  They won't be a big factor in the ACC, and UVA should expect to beat them most if not all of the time.

Men's track and field

2009-2010: 56 (Md. 0; UVA 49.5)
2010-2011: 46 (Md. 25.5; UVA 46)
2011-2012: 0 (Md. 0; UVA 15)
2012-2013: 13 (Md. 0; UVA 0)
2013-2014: 0 (Md. 0; UVA 25)

Totals: 115; 25.5; 135.5

Women's track and field

2009-2010: 36 (Md. 42.5; UVA 0)
2010-2011: 27 (Md. 0; UVA 44)
2011-2012: 22 (Md. 0; UVA 0)
2012-2013: 0 (Md. 9; UVA 0)
2013-2014: 61.5 (Md. 35; UVA 18)

Totals: 146.5; 86.5; 62

Consistent success in this sport has eluded Louisville, the same as it's eluded UVA and Maryland, and it's going to be hard to predict anything here other than that Louisville probably will be better than Maryland was and won't be a huge threat to win any ACC titles.

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Yes, I took an extended break for the Fourth, there, and I'll do it again next week, too.  Part of it was, I was totally going to write a weekend review yesterday and then I realized, most of the stuff I wanted to write about was from Jeff White's column.  So just read that instead.

Summer break for me starts this Friday, but I'll write stuff Wednesday and Thursday, and then Thursday and Friday next week.

little shuffle, big shuffle

I picked a good day, yesterday, to leave my Twitter feed running.  I don't do that usually, but occasionally do, and stuff kept coming across it and I just couldn't help myself.  We'll just consider this morning's Louisville news an extension of a very busy Tuesday, and go from there.

The smaller news was the beginning of the coaching staff shuffle.  Running backs coach Mike Faragalli's departure, it's fair to call that unexpected.  RB coach is a pretty benign position.  It's hard to have a lot of effect, positive or negative, on a team's fortunes.  You usually put a recruiter there.  Michigan's got this guy who's been there 21 years and survived three separate coaching changes.  Mike London portrayed the move as stemming from disappointment in the running game, and if Faragalli was the guy who turned Perry Jones into a dancer when he used to be a lot more decisive, then I can see that.  Otherwise I think most of us blamed the O-line for the lack of a run game; that and the occasional bizarre attempt to use Jones as a short-yardage hammer.

After that, I don't know exactly where we go.  Marques Hagans probably stays on as Faragalli's replacement, but in what capacity I don't know.  He and Shawn Moore will take on some combination of the skill positions, except for quarterback which I would guess is likely to stay with Bill Lazor.  I'd like to see Hagans take the receivers off of Lazor's plate so he can focus more on OC duties.

There's still the matter of the O-line, and nothing has been forthcoming from the official camp, but you'd have a hard time finding anyone who thinks Scott Wachenheim's job is secure.  I once again register this blog's endorsement of Jim Bollman.

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Now, the news you were waiting for.  In more circles than you might guess, people are wondering if the ACC didn't just accidentally become a stronger conference by trading Maryland for Louisville.  Certainly it depends on how you look at it.  Maryland is a much better school, academical-wise.  If you think TV markets are all that matters, we lost out there too, but then again, perhaps not; UVA and VT still provide a presence in the DC market, after all.  Louisville has a better football and basketball program than Maryland (and baseball, too, for what that matters), with the caveat that much of their football success will be up in the air if and when Charlie Strong leaves.  (That said, Randy Edsall is still employed at Maryland.)  Can the marginally better attractiveness of Louisville's athletic programs outweigh the reduced TV presence in a very large market?

At least there's this: The more I think about it, the more I prefer Louisville to the other finalist, UConn.  To start with, Louisville isn't coastal, no, but it is southern, the latter of which is just as important to the ACC's traditional identity as the former.  It's also more important to the schools that have a lot of weight these days, namely Florida State and Clemson.  And let's face it.  I don't know if the rumor is true that FSU, Clemson, and maybe others, insisted on Louisville while the Tobacco Road schools (at least initially) wanted Connecticut.  But I've read it in enough different and reasonably credible places that I buy it.  And it would have been stupidity of epic proportions to continue to northernize the league when the schools you depend on for the league's strength are telling you not to do that.

So I like it about as well as I can muster liking anything in the stupid world of realignment.  It does require a little bit of rationalization, of course.  I'm under no illusions about what the ACC is doing here, which is to say, dropping a long-held standard, which must have pained a few presidents.  Namely, academics.  One of the most unfair things I've heard about Louisville is, "But it's a commuter school!"  Nonsense; it's not like it's a community college.  It does have a commuter aspect to it, and nevertheless has an endowment 98% the size of Maryland's despite being 15,000 students smaller.  But yes, it instantly becomes the "worst" academic school in the ACC, and probably not of the quality the ACC would have chosen without its backs against the wall.  (However, it's also one of the oldest.  Third-oldest, in fact; only Pitt and UNC are older.)

We're pretty much beyond caring about that, though.  The ACC can't afford to.  It's still in a position of strength, but must maintain a careful balancing act.  The next thing the FSUs of the conference might look for is divisional realignment.  They didn't want UConn because they didn't want a whole bunch of traveling north, and the football quality wasn't up to snuff.  Now they've got the football and they'll probably want less travel.  I'm OK with that.  UVA should nudge the conference in the direction of realignment as well, otherwise they'll just slot Louisville into Maryland's slot and that'll be our new permanent buddy.  Not that I don't want to play Louisville, but I do want to play the traditional ACC teams as often as possible.  (And if there's a magical way to do that without being in FSU's division, that'd be sweet too.  And a pony.  Don't forget the pony.)

Admittedly, now, we are seeing a Big Eastifying of the ACC.  Admittedly also, the Big Ten is a money-making dynamo, as is the SEC, and the ACC will not approach that for the foreseeable future.  This has a lot of people thinking we should be "proactive" and court Big Ten membership right now, supposedly before the bus leaves or the ship sinks or whatever.  Enough rumors flew around this past week that both UVA and UNC had to put out statements categorically denying any kind of interaction with the B1G.

However, our place is the ACC.  People assume we should chase the money, too, but we have zero need to do that.  UVA sits, financially, near the top of the ACC.  We have a head start on our competition that way.  In the B1G, with their schools that are three times as big as ours, colossal stadiums, enormous donor bases, we would be up against a lot of schools that can generate a lot of cash much better than we can.  We'd be near the bottom of the ladder.

UVA's best course of action is to work their asses off to preserve the ACC.  With one extra step: our president, whether that's Teresa Sullivan now or someone else in five or however many years, should be right in the hip pocket of UNC's chancellor, and vice versa.  We need to attach ourselves at the hip to UNC.  Why?  Because UNC and UVA are two of the nation's elite public schools, and closer collaboration with them is something no university president would turn down.  The idea that the B1G bus will leave without UVA if we're not next onboard is silly.  It's based on the idea that 16 teams is a magic number, above which no conference will ever dare tread.

Ask yourself this: What is the magical gravitational pull toward 16 teams?  What force in the universe decrees that a conference must get to 16 teams and stay there?  This is entirely a creation of message board imagination; it's a nice round number, people like nice round numbers, and so they imagine themselves a world where that happens.  Somehow they imagine for themselves perfect harmony, cohesion, and symmetry in a world (that of NCAA realignment) that couldn't be more chaotic and entropic if it tried.  Just as there is no magic force pushing conferences to get to 16 teams, there is no magic force that demands they stay there if they do get there.  We live in a world where there are 68 teams in the March Madness tourney, not 64.  The MAC seems to exist, somehow, with 13 teams.  The B1G had 11 for almost twenty years.  The ACC, if left alone, will sit on 15 for quite some time.

Now ask yourself this: Suppose the ACC fell apart in the way that everyone is foreboding for it.  FSU and Clemson go to the Big 12, NC State and VT go to the SEC.  UVA is left apparently adrift in a sinking conference; in that event, I'd probably have a lot of trouble clinging to the idea that the ACC is still the best place for our school.  Reluctantly, B1G membership appears to be the necessary lifeboat.  But wait; the "bus has left the station," because the B1G added two more schools in the interim.  Now suppose UVA, tied at the hip, as you'll recall, with UNC, knocks on the B1G's door.  Do you honestly believe that ACC presidents would say no to the chance to add two elite flagship schools, with a presence in large and growing TV markets, just because they already have 16 teams?

A silly thought.  UVA can afford to wait.  Or, if not "wait" exactly, it can afford to put its chips in with the success of the ACC.  There are too many good schools and good programs in the ACC for it to fail entirely, and UVA is too good a school for university presidents to snub, particularly if UNC is a companion school in whatever potential future changes there are.

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-- So we won at bastyball today.  Yay for that!  More reaction later, but the very quick cliffnotes are that the poise the team played with, on the road in a tough place to win, was extremely impressive, and of course, you have to like the effect it could have on our tournament hopes.  In fact I'll tell you what right now: go 9-9 in the conference, and we're in.  Also, I will have highlights tomorrow.

-- Just as I talk about coaching shuffles, here comes more news down the pipeline: Bill Lazor interviewing for the head coaching job at Georgia State.  GSU will make the jump to the Sun Belt Conference in the not-too-distant future, so it's not a head-scratching move.  If Lazor leaves, Jim Bollman has extensive OC experience.  JUST SAYIN

-- News that Malcolm Brogdon will redshirt the season is not exactly exciting, but it does offer some welcome closure to that situation.  Losing Brogdon for the year takes away a potential future scoring option, but it settles the rotation some and cements Teven Jones (who looked very veteran-y tonight against Wisconsin) as the backup point guard (or starter until Bub is ready for all the minutes.)  The rotation looks as though it's set on nine, with Taylor Barnette the odd man out for now.

-- This article about the gross mismanagement of Maryland's finances is a must-read.  NC State fans might want to be worried about having Debbie Yow for an AD, and one must wonder that, even if the Big Ten offers a clean slate, how many of the issues Maryland had - and has - will be fixed so that they don't run themselves right back into debt.  And how many might be exacerbated.