game preview: Miami

Date/Time: Saturday, November 22; 7:00

TV: ESPN2

Record against the Canes: 5-6

Last meeting: Miami 45, UVA 26; 11/23/13, Miami

Last weekend: UVA bye; FSU 30, Miami 26

Line: Miami by 5.5

Injury report:

Virginia:

OUT: OG Ryan Doull, C Jackson Matteo, CB Demetrious Nicholson, OT Sadiq Olanrewaju, CB Brandon Phelps, OT Jay Whitmire
DOUBTFUL: S Kelvin Rainey, CB Divante Walker
QUESTIONABLE: None
PROBABLE: DE Trent Corney, LB Mark Hall

Miami:

OUT: OL Taylor Gadbois, OL Alex Gall, PK Matt Goudis, S Rayshawn Jenkins, OL K.C. McDermott, FB Ronnie Regula, WR Rashawn Scott
DOUBTFUL: S Deon Bush
QUESTIONABLE: None
PROBABLE: None

It feels like ages since I even thought about football.  With the way things are going, I sort of liked it that way.  With only two games left, the season is right up on the brink.  There are some who think Mike London can save his job by winning the next two and going bowling; I'm not convinced of that, but I am convinced it shouldn't be that way.  My view: let's just win the next two and send London off in halfway decent style, and start over next year.  And if we lose this one, then for God's sake at least beat VT.  But, Miami first.

-- UVA run offense vs. Miami run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 165 carries, 669 yards, 4.1 ypc, 4 TDs
Khalek Shepherd: 59 carries, 253 yards, 4.3 ypc, 1 TD

UVA offense:
142.0 yards/game, 3.81 yards/attempt
94th of 128 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

Miami defense:
130.1 yards/game, 3.44 yards/attempt
20th of 128 (national), 6th of 14 (ACC)

Miami's run defense is sort of averagely good; it's not spectacular, but it gets the job done.  The unit is led by linebacker Denzel Perryman in the middle, an excellent player who's headed for an all-ACC nod of some kind.  Miami rotates three linebackers in the other two spots, which limits the numbers for those guys, but they're all quality players; in fact, second on the team in tackles (after Perryman) is Jermaine Grace, the non-starter of the group.

The D-line doesn't have any big stars on it - Anthony Chickillo tends to get more praise from announcers than a guy with three tackles per game deserves - but it's big, particularly Chickillo.  With UVA's offensive line once again looking thin as rice paper, these guys could be in for big days.  I'd worry about Chickillo as a 280-pound senior DE, but I'd also expect our line to get stacked up more often than not.  (Then again, the last time we saw Steve Fairchild he was abandoning the run game with incredible gusto, so we might not even notice.)

-- UVA pass offense vs. Miami pass defense

Quarterback:
Greyson Lambert: 122/204, 59.8%; 8 TDs, 9 INTs, 1,275 yards; 6.25 ypa

Top receivers:
Canaan Severin: 34 rec., 441 yards, 4 TDs
Taquan Mizzell: 33 rec., 190 yards, 0 TDs
Kevin Parks: 28 rec., 166 yards, 2 TDs

UVA offense:
241.5 yards/game, 6.54 yards/attempt
91st of 128 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)

Miami defense:
192.9 yards/game, 5.92 yards/attempt
14th of 128 (national), 2nd of 14 (ACC)

Matt Johns hasn't thrown a pass in two of the last three games and wasn't all that good in the third; is it safe to say we've finally settled on a quarterback?  I think so.  Maybe.  Probably.  I think.

At any rate, the story's the same: Lambert has got to stop throwing interceptions.  Hard to do against Miami.  They're very average in terms of actual INTs, but the whole defense, from front to back, gets involved in batting passes down.  Very active hands, everywhere.  And QBs have been avoiding cornerback Ladarius Gunter like the plague.

Miami also brings a very good pass rush from all corners.  The sack leader is linebacker Thurston Armbrister with five, but most of the Canes' 25 sacks are spread out among the whole defense.  It's a bad sign, seeing an inexperienced offensive line trying to protect a quarterback when they can't be entirely sure where the rush is coming from.

All this adds up to an excellent pass defense, one of the best in the country.  By doing nothing spectacularly but everything well, Miami is a top-15 defense against air assaults.  Opposing teams have at times piled up the yards, but it takes a lot of passes to get there.  UVA's short passing game ought to work out OK, but I don't expect a lot of deeper stuff to be real successful.

-- Miami run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Duke Johnson: 185 carries, 1,343 yards, 7.3 ypc, 10 TDs
Joseph Yearby: 75 carries, 455 yards, 6.1 ypc, 1 TD

Miami offense:
197.0 yards/game, 5.55 yards/attempt
14th of 128 (national), 2nd of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
118.6 yards/game, 3.22 yards/attempt
13th of 128 (national), 4th of 14 (ACC)

Duke Johnson.  He's really good.  And lest you think we'll be out of the woods if Johnson hobbles off the field, the Canes have been using Joseph Yearby to good effect as well.  He's one of those hard-to-find short guys with some built-in power, not unlike Kevin Parks but with more speed.  The Miami O-line has been opening holes all season, and Johnson blows through them pretty hard.

So nothing fancy here.  Miami just wants to line up and let Johnson beat you down, and sends Yearby in to give Johnson a break.  Johnson is one of the toughest guys to tackle in the whole league.  This area of the game, of course, is UVA's one big bright spot, so Miami will find tougher sledding than they're used to; of the three ACC defenses better against the run than UVA, the Canes have only played one, and lost badly.

-- Miami pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Brad Kaaya: 160/267, 59.9%; 22 TDs, 10 INTs, 2,403 yards; 9.00 ypa

Top receivers:
Clive Walford: 33 rec., 522 yards, 7 TDs
Duke Johnson: 25 rec., 310 yards, 2 TDs
Phillip Dorsett: 23 rec., 662 yards, 7 TDs

Miami offense:
245.4 yards/game, 8.76 yards/attempt
9th of 128 (national), 2nd of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
229.2 yards/game, 7.03 yards/attempt
67th of 128 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

Miami looked like they might be set to let transfer Jake Heaps run the offense, but they couldn't resist going with the true freshman Kaaya in the end, and it's paid off.  Kaaya has looked like a veteran this year - it helps to have such a good ground game opening things up for him, but nevertheless Miami has been able to strike deep and be very efficient overall.

Kaaya relies heavily on Clive Walford, one of the Canes' best receivers and their receptions leader, but the real star of the receiving corps is Phillip Dorsett.  With just 23 catches, Dorsett has piled up 662 yards, giving him an average of almost 29 yards a catch.  I mean holy crap.  Not the kind of player you want to be against when you have two starting cornerbacks sidelined.  Tim Harris got torched a few times earlier this year and Miami will be looking to go after him again.

For UVA, this is an area that's gotten progressively worse throughout the year, and this is not the opponent to fix that.  Johnson is also a pretty big part of the passing game (wouldn't you try and get him the ball in space, with momentum?) and I think UVA can slow that down pretty well, but the deep game is going to burn us several times.

-- Favorability ratings

Run offense: 2.5
Pass offense: 2
Run defense: 5.5
Pass defense: 2.5

Average: 3.125

-- Outlook

I can't think of any good reason to be optimistic here.  UVA is simply overmatched, and badly.  Miami's a better team than its 6-4 record; they'll probably finish 8-4 and look a lot closer to where they should be.  They had a little bit of bad luck on the schedule, having to play two very tough crossovers and losing both.  The Canes are a team with no real weaknesses.  UVA has many.  I was hoping that Miami would win last week and set themselves up for a letdown after taking down huge rival FSU, but now they'll just be pissed off after the way they lost.

-- Predictions

-- UVA allows at least three sacks.

-- And throws at least two picks.

-- Duke Johnson is held reasonably in check, averaging no more than 5.5 yards a carry.

-- Kaaya throws at least three passes of 30 yards or more.

Final score: Miami 31, UVA 10

-- Rest of the ACC

Byes: Georgia Tech, NC State

UNC 45, Duke 20 - Thursday - With that game, the ACC CG is set: FSU vs. GT.  I think I had GT last in the Coastal.  Go me.

Virginia Tech @ Wake Forest - 12:30 - I'd like for us to beat Miami and VT to lose to Wake to set up the Bowl Eligibility Bowl in Blacksburg.  I'd also like a billion dollars and a pony.

Syracuse @ Pittsburgh - 3:30 - Pitt is also seeing their bowl eligibility hanging by a thread - and has to play Miami next week.

Louisville @ Notre Dame - 3:30 - Fight for Western Division superiority in the ACC.

Boston College @ Florida State - 3:30 - Potential letdown for FSU here, but the talent gap is too big.

Clemson vs. Georgia State - 3:30 - If sanity ruled the world this kind of game would be in September and FSU would be playing Clemson this weekend.

2014 hoops preview: players, part 2

It's a bye week in football, so we get to talk basketball all week long.  Don't act like you're not excited.  I'll have a couple quick things on the FSU game at the end here.  Today we'll continue the series on each player.  Tomorrow, the OOC schedule, and on Wednesday or Thursday, another look back at the ACC itself.  Stuff gets real on Friday, but sadly that game isn't televised, so most of us will have to wait til Sunday to get our first look.

#11 - Evan Nolte - Jr. PF

Nolte's an interesting case.  It's very fair to say that other than the freshmen who we haven't seen at all, he has the least predictable role on the team, and even then, it's not like we don't know what Devon Hall or Jack Salt are here for.

I even hesitated as to whether to call him a power forward or a small forward, but based on his usage during the tourney last year, power forward it is.  Nolte basically spent most of the season living up to the preseason expectations of reduced usage and a hazy role; his minutes were cut down to less than half of what they'd been the year before.  Then the tourney rolled around and all of a sudden it was like he'd never left.  Clutch shots against Coastal, posterization of some Memphis dude, and major-league defensive responsibilities against MSU, in which he looked like he'd been doing this power forward thing all his life.

Did we see a true metamorphosis, or just a well-timed hot streak?  Hard to say.  Nolte is one of the classicest tweeners you'll ever see, and what still remains to be seen as he goes into the second half of his career is whether he's on the good or bad side of that description.  Both his defense and offense are part of that equation.  We know he can shoot from deep, and he'll probably never be a back-to-the-basket player, but he's also flashed an occasional midrange game that would come in awfully handy if he develops it.  And on defense, we know he's not all that quick, but if he can defend in the post a little, he can be one of those really frustrating floor stretchers on the other end.  What he can't do is get knocked around on defense and expect to float to the edges on offense.

We'll see if he's hit the weight room.  Against MSU he played harder than we've seen him play in two years, and the results were a really pleasant surprise.  I think the most likely outcome for Nolte is that it takes him all year to really be comfortable as a banger and as an elder statesman on the team, and that his senior year is when he really hits full bloom.  But Tony has a way of coaxing development out of his players, and you shouldn't be surprised to see that timeline accelerated.  Mark these words: if UVA has another really stratospheric season like last year, it'll be in no small part because Nolte became a whole new ballplayer.

#13 - Anthony Gill - Jr. PF

On a points-per-minute basis, Gill was the most efficient scorer on the team last year, and it's no wonder.  He turned out to be just as advertised from his redshirt season, and usually got to go up against second-stringers, which was never a fair matchup.  Better yet, you could see his defense improve as the season wore on, and his minutes saw a parallel uptick.

The obvious question here is how well he handles the near-certain move to the starting lineup.  He'll be asked to guard all those guys that Akil Mitchell guarded so well last year, and score on them too, in a way that wasn't asked of Mitchell as much.  He's not the athlete Mitchell was, but he's quite a bit stronger, and his defensive style will definitely reflect that.  

It's a really simple equation: all that stuff you did last year, do it against better players.  But Gill is entering his fourth season in a college program, and there's little doubt he can handle it.  He could see up to an extra eight minutes a game (though about five is more likely); we may not see a corresponding increase in all his numbers, but they'll still go up, and he should find himself in the conversation for some all-ACC recognition if all goes well.

#15 - Malcolm Brogdon - Jr. SG

Pacism is slowly evaporating from national analyses.  Maybe not so slowly now that Tony's choke-you-to-death style has proven capable of elite results.  Proof: Malcolm Brogdon is 22nd in ESPN's countdown of the top 100 players in the country.  "No weaknesses" is their blunt assessment.

So a lot is expected of him.  With Joe Harris gone, this is Uncle Malcolm's team.  Like Gill, he's entering his fourth year of college ball, and has developed into one of the physically strongest backcourt players in the league, maybe the strongest.  He'll be asked to score from everywhere, with the focus of the defense squarely upon him.  Considering that he made some cameo appearances in KenPom's top ten rating - as in, players in the whole country - there's every reason to expect him to become not just UVA's marquee player, but one of the ACC's as well.  He doesn't wear the right shade of blue, so his path to ACC POY is steeper than for certain others, but first team all-ACC is the expectation.

#21 - Isaiah Wilkins - Fr. PF

Wilkins has a unique challenge among freshmen, in that he has more established players in his way than the rest of them.  Some of them (Stith/Shayok) are in each others' way, others (Hall, Salt) have a defined position with only one other player (albeit a core rotation member) in front.  Wilkins is a power forward, which means that Gill, Atkins, and most likely Nolte are all squarely in front of him in the pecking order.

The good news for him: Jack Salt is a likely redshirt, and Tony's nine-man rotation tends to prefer four backcourt and five frontcourt guys.  Makes sense.  Last year's five-man frontcourt rotation saw three players (Mitchell, Gill, Tobey) get the lions' share of the minutes, and Nolte and Atkins pick up a few each.  Well, now there's 25 of Mitchell's minutes to figure out, and I think you can count on Wilkins getting a few of them.

Probably at first it'll be one of those mid-first-half deals where you toss a guy in where it's not really crunch time and you need to keep your starters fresh.  In his commitment profile I called him a Swiss Army knife of a player; he doesn't blow you away with shooting range or power and strength, but he's athletic, long-armed, and energetic, and should do a nice job on defense as long as he's got the system down enough to be out there.  There's a lot of veteran experience in front of him and he'd have to pull a shocker to start chipping into their playing time significantly this year, but I think there's a little bit of an Akil Mitchell to him, and we know how that turned out.

#32 - London Perrantes - So. PG

The surprise of the season last year, for sure.  It was almost immediately apparent, the effect Perrantes had on the offense when he took it over, and from the beginning it seemed like he belonged - largely because he acted like it.  He didn't even make a single two-point shot in any of the first eight games and he still was making the offense run smoother than it had in a long time.  And even when the offense changed after the Tennessee beatdown, it didn't faze Perrantes or his ability to make it go.

This is Brogdon's team, but with just the one year in the program, Perrantes is assuming a leadership role.  (Though, one does wonder what on earth he did to get suspended for the JMU game.  It's a little reminder that he's still not quite a finished product.)  That leadership should also translate into a little more assertiveness with the ball.  He's obviously a huge piece of the equation, but KenPom's algorithms credit him with the offensive impact of Taylor Barnette because he finishes so few possessions and shoots so little.  Partly that's good - it means limited turnovers - but Perrantes was a .437 three-point shooter last year and ought to fire away a bit more.

He'll also need to improve his game inside the arc; his two-point percentage was an utterly dismal .319 and he wasn't much better at the rim, going just .355.  I don't think he needs to take it to the rack more - the offense doesn't revolve around that - just better.  But the bottom line is, UVA has as veteran a point guard as you'll find in the league - and he's a sophomore.

#33 - Jack Salt - Fr. C

Salt is considered the most likely player to redshirt, which is no surprise at all; he's a center, bigs are always behind the curve as compared to guards, and his New Zealand upbringing means he's had only a smattering of experience against the kind of competition his peers have faced.

So the likely contribution is as a practice body - and an awfully helpful one, because if half the reports of his physicality are true, our bigs will find the games a lot easier than practice.  Reputation has it that Salt seems to think he's playing rugby out there.  I'm OK with giving him a year with the strength and conditioning guys, maybe learn a little bit about what he can get away with.  If by chance he does play this year, I still wouldn't expect much - heavy physicality isn't easily noticed on TV and not that useful in small doses.  But I'm looking forward to the day a couple years down the road when he and Jarred Reuter team up to bludgeon opponents into handing over any and all potential rebounds.

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Guessing at the rotation is probably a stupid thing to do, because the season has a way of really messing up predictions like that, but let's do it anyway.  Minutes are in parentheses after the name.

Starters:

PG - Perrantes (30)

SG - Brogdon (35)

SF - Anderson (25)

PF - Gill (25)

C - Tobey (20)

Reserves:

Hall (13)

Shayok (12)

Atkins (15)

Nolte (15)

Wilkins (5)

That leaves Stith and Salt to redshirt.  It also only adds up to 195 - spread the rest of the minutes around the back of the bench to account for blowouts and such.

**************************************************

Quick bullets on the FSU game:

-- Sending 260-pound Jack English out to play left tackle against Mario Edwards - it's amazing Greyson Lambert didn't get beaten into a fine powder.  Nothing against English - but he's like the 8th-string tackle if we had an ideal roster, a converted tight end, and all in all the unfortunate poster boy for Mike London's abject failure to build an offensive line.

-- I like the fact that there's a wildcat play for David Watford, and kinda want to smack people who think that because he did a lousy job of throwing the football last year, it means he should never get on the field again in any capacity.  I'm more than OK with finding a role for a guy who has probably earned it with attitude.  But do the coaches take into account important details like, I dunno, down and distance, time on the game clock, or any kind of situational detail at all, when they call a play?  Steve Fairchild has designed a good offense but I swear that if he played chess he would draw up these elaborate twenty-move gambits to capture the opposing bishops, and wouldn't save his king from check if the rules didn't require it.  When he plays golf he probably has really nice clubs and drives off the tee exclusively with a sand wedge.

-- All three of Greyson Lambert's touchdown throws were beautimous, but the second one - to Darius Jennings - was really incredible, NFL stuff.  FSU had them all covered well, except that the DB's backs were turned the whole time.  On the throw to Jennings, Lambert spun it off to Jennings's outside shoulder and put it where Jennings could just go down and get it, and the DB, even had he realized the ball was coming, would've had an impossible time trying to twist and break it up.  Levrone's catch was mostly just awesome work by Levrone; the Jennings one was all Lambert.

-- That said, I defended Lambert on the UNC screen pass interception, but I'm not gonna do it for his one pick this time.  The poster child for a throw that should never have been made.

Prediction review:

- No UVA running back tops 50 yards rushing.  Kevin Parks had 43, the most of any Hoo.  Easy prediction to make.

- Both Lambert and Johns toss an interception.  Johns didn't play, so I can't take credit for this one.

- Lambert has better stats across the board - yardage, completion percentage, yards per attempt.  But I sure can for this.

- Winston throws for over 300 yards.  Nope - Winston was limited to 261 yards and a pretty pedestrian (for him) 7.5 yards per throw.  He outplayed Lambert, but - not by much at all.

- Greene absolutely torches the Hoos, with double-digit receptions.  Greene literally had a career day, his 13 receptions being a career high, and that's saying something for the all-time receptions leader at FSU.

Pretty good day on the predictions here, going 3-for-5.  Stats for the season:

20-for-50 on specifics (40%)
6-3 straight up (W)
4-3-1 ATS (L - the Hoos covered when here I thought they'd get blown out.  Nice job taking advantage of turnovers, but otherwise nothing to speak of on offense.)

game preview: Florida State

Date/Time: Saturday, November 8; 6:30

TV: ESPN

Record against the Noles: 3-14

Last meeting: UVA 14, FSU 13; 11/19/11, Tallahassee

Last weekend: GT 35, UVA 10; FSU 42, UL 31

Line: FSU by 20.5

Injury report:

Virginia:

OUT: DE Trent Corney, LB Mark Hall, C Jackson Matteo, CB Demetrious Nicholson, CB Divante Walker, OT Jay Whitmire, WR Miles Gooch
DOUBTFUL: OG Ryan Doull, OT Michael Mooney
QUESTIONABLE: CB Brandon Phelps
PROBABLE: none

Florida State:

OUT: DB Colin Blake, DT Nile Lawrence-Stample, LB Delvin Purifoy, OL Austin Barron
DOUBTFUL: none
QUESTIONABLE: DB Terrell Lyons
PROBABLE: none

Hope you enjoyed it the last time these two teams met.  The Hoos won't meet FSU again til 2020 if this stupid scheduling arrangement holds (long enough that it's entirely possible our coach in that game will have replaced a coach we hire this December), and this game isn't likely to provide any memories you'll want to hang on to.  Watching a field goal attempt sail wide after a glacial-paced replay in which UVA was hoping an FSU pass would be ruled complete - that'll probably have to do.

-- UVA run offense vs. FSU run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 150 carries, 626 yards, 4.2 ypc, 4 TDs
Khalek Shepherd: 54 carries, 227 yards, 4.2 ypc, 1 TD

UVA offense:
153.67 yards/game, 4.06 yards/attempt
79th of 128 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

FSU defense:
148.0 yards/game, 3.78 yards/attempt
42nd of 128 (national), 7th of 14 (ACC)

If there's anything that derails FSU's championship defense, it'll be just that.  The defense isn't awful, but it's pretty mediocre for a championship contender.  That said, they haven't played an easy schedule.  If you adjust for quality of teams, FSU's defense looks better, and this is the better half of it.  UVA's woes at running up the middle - made worse this week by the likely unavailability of Ryan Doull - don't match up well with DT Eddie Goldman.  (Doull also got bumped to second on the depth chart - a reaction to one play, a referendum on his play in general, or was he already doubtful by Monday when the depth chart came out?)

UVA, in fact, is down to eight healthy non-redshirting O-linemen - and really, seven, since one is a converted tight end weighing in at 260.  Seven!  Not only is that a really bad sign for the running game (which managed to be entirely unproductive against one of the worst run defenses in the country last week) it ups the risk of injury even more as it forces actual starters into action on things like kick protection.

It's probably not likely to matter.  If UVA falls behind early, and that seems a likely proposition, the coaches have shown a willingness to abandon the running game nice and early.  So even against an FSU defense that gives up some yards, this is likely to be an extremely unproductive day for all our ballcarriers.

-- UVA pass offense vs. FSU pass defense

Quarterback:
Greyson Lambert: 102/169, 60.4%; 1,055 yards, 5 TDs, 8 INTs; 6.24 ypa

Top receivers:
Taquan Mizzell: 31 rec., 176 yards, 0 TDs
Canaan Severin: 30 rec., 385 yards, 3 TDs
Kevin Parks: 24 rec., 139 yards, 2 TDs

UVA offense:
243.9 yards/game, 6.57 yards/attempt
87th of 128 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)

FSU defense:
240.6 yards/game, 7.05 yards/attempt
72nd of 128 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)

Probably the thing that FSU lacks the most is a pass rush.  Only 12 sacks all year long, and four of them from Goldman on the interior.  That's a problem to watch for; if Goldman goes against Cody Wallace, there's nothing to like about that matchup.  Otherwise, though, only one other player has more than one sack - Mario Edwards, whose expected development into one of the conference's elite linemen looks stalled out for now.  UVA hasn't been perfect in pass protection, but not bad, and should at least be able to keep their quarterback on his feet most of the time.

Not sure we can say with any clarity who that quarterback will be, though.  Lambert got pulled again last week, and while I'd guess he'll get the call to go back out there, that's no guarantee.  It's not like Matt Johns was all that hot.  The passing game missed Miles Gooch last week more than I expected they would; Keeon Johnson had multiple drops, and the running backs got used as a crutch more than usual.  And of course, turnovers were murder.

FSU has allowed some fairly average quarterbacks to move the ball on them, but most of them still better than our own passing game.  Still, there's a small chance here.  If FSU had an average offense themselves, I'd say it's plausible UVA could move the ball enough to stay in striking distance.  FSU's defense is more athletic than most, so I'm not optimistic that anything involving a running back will work, other than an unexpected screen pass (that said, we call the screen so often that it's rarely unexpected.)  UVA's passing game is at its best when Severin and Jennings are the ones catching the ball; the Hoos' only hope is to get some big plays from those guys.

-- FSU run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Karlos Williams: 98 carries, 470 yards, 4.6 ypc, 7 TDs
Dalvin Cook: 68 carries, 380 yards, 5.6 ypc, 5 TDs

FSU offense:
131.75 yards/game, 4.20 yards/attempt
74th of 128 (national), 8th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
119.0 yards/game, 3.26 yards/attempt
17th of 128 (national), 4th of 14 (ACC)

This is a perfect example of why only fools use per-game statistics.  At some point during the game there just might be a graphic calling FSU the 102nd-best running game in the country - as if you win national titles by sucking at running the ball - and they'll neglect to tell you that only four teams run the ball less than FSU does.

This is probably because they know where their weapons are and emphasize them, a novel concept.  They're also working with their backup center after Austin Barron broke his arm a few weeks ago.  Even so, the run game is more than functional.  Karlos Williams is a big guy, very useful in short yardage, and Dalvin Cook and Mario Pender do the change-of-pace thing well.

One thing that isn't a big part of the run game: Jameis Winston.  Though often thought of as a mobile, running quarterback, his mobility is mainly behind the line of scrimmage.  He's cut back on his ballcarrying from last year, and has just a few bonafide runs on the season.

I'm still bullish on the run defense, though, the last bastion of hope on this football team.  It could've looked better last week, but against GT, it has looked much, much worse.  And best of all, you could see visible adjustments in the way they attacked the option.  FSU isn't likely to run wild on Saturday, but then, they're not likely to try.  The Noles will probably just concede this one and use the run only to keep UVA's linebackers honest.

-- FSU pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Jameis Winston: 174/259, 67.2%; 2,279 yards, 16 TDs, 9 INTs; 8.80 ypa

Top receivers:
Rashad Greene: 58 rec., 853 yards, 4 TDs
Nick O'Leary: 33 rec, 364 yards, 2 TDs
Jesus Wilson: 28 rec., 356 yards, 4 TDs

FSU offense:
327.3 yards/game, 8.58 yards/attempt
18th of 128 (national), 3rd of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
225.7 yards/game, 6.98 yards/attempt
66th of 128 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

They can do that because ol' crab-legs is still slinging the ball around.  Statistically, you'd call this an obvious sophomore slump, although his numbers are down partly because of a mid-year suspension.  Even so, anyone would take it.

His favorite target by far is senior WR Rashad Greene, FSU's all-time receptions leader.  A pretty big accomplishment when the program has turned out guys like Peter Warrick.  Tight end Nick O'Leary and slot guy Jesus Wilson are the major complementary pieces; Travis Rudolph is enough of a threat on the opposite side to open things up even further for Greene.  It's a fairly deep attack, but Winston to Greene is the main story, and it's just plain hard to stop.

Even harder when your cornerback depth takes a hit.  If Brandon Phelps isn't in the game, things could get ugly fast.  Maurice Canady will probably have Greene as his assignment either way, and Canady has been simply awful the past few weeks.  GT's DeAndre Smelter just toyed with him.  Smelter had a big size advantage that Greene doesn't have, but that matters not at all against the league's top receiver.  So, no, not a lot of confidence here.

-- Favorability ratings

UVA run offense: 2
UVA pass offense: 3
UVA run defense: 5.5
UVA pass defense: 1.5

Average: 3

-- Outlook

The ratings are probably charitable.  This game is on the road.  And FSU has specialized in dominating the second half.  That should be a lot of fun considering we haven't seen a UVA second-half touchdown in four games.  Second halves have been nothing short of a complete embarrassment.  FSU has trailed at the half in four of their eight games so far and then come roaring back.  This week, they probably won't be trailing, and it's probably fair to say the fourth quarter will be played relatively close, because the third quarter will be a FEMA disaster zone.

-- Predictions

- No UVA running back tops 50 yards rushing.

- Both Lambert and Johns toss an interception.

- Lambert has better stats across the board - yardage, completion percentage, yards per attempt.

- Winston throws for over 300 yards.

- Greene absolutely torches the Hoos, with double-digit receptions.

Final score: FSU 45, UVA 7

-- Rest of the ACC

Byes: Miami, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech

-- Clemson 34, Wake Forest 20 - Thu. - Wake becomes the first ACC team to officially miss the postseason.

-- Duke @ Syracuse - 12:30 - And Cuse probably becomes the second.

-- Georgia Tech @ NC State - 12:30 - Both Duke and GT are on the road against crappy Atlantic opponents, needing a win to keep pace in the Coastal.

-- Louisville @ Boston College - 7:15 - Basically the battle for third place in the Atlantic, for what that's worth.

breakdown

I think it's interesting that, sometimes, a seemingly unremarkable play catches the eye of a lot of different people, all independent of each other.  On third-and-18 on UVA's opening drive (an ominous phrase in and of itself) Greyson Lambert threw a screen to Kevin Parks that picked up two yards.  Really explosive offense, this.

I decided, for reasons unknown to myself, to rewind and see what had happened; perhaps the play looked like it should have picked up a great deal more.  Perhaps I was just perturbed, which would be understandable given that our opening salvo exploded in the breech.  Upon a second look, it was easy to see what had happened: Conner Davis whiffed a block, badly.

At least one game thread picked up on that fact too, and quickly; the play became a matter of discussion to the extent that a game thread allows.  Even more interestingly, eminent Sabre philosopher JHoo picked up on it too, and provided one small note that I missed on my own reviewing:

So plenty of folks did their job well … … but guard Conner Davis, who had responsibility for the outside man on the play – here, cornerback D.J. White – broke one of those little rules on screen passes: he looked back to watch the pass and see the completion.

I'm normally very loath to copy and paste paywalled stuff, but there's a point to be made here.

A third look at the play confirms it completely.  Davis had eyes only for the backfield; when he turned around after the catch, he found a defender flying past him.

Think about the implications of this.  Consider:

-- Davis is not only a fifth-year senior, but also the most experienced player on his unit.
-- This is a big game.  The players know the deal when it comes to bowl eligibility, as well as their coach's job situation.  And they happen to really like their coach and want to keep him around.
-- It's the third play of the game.  Everyone's fresh.  Fatigue is not a thing right now.
-- It's early, so we're almost certainly on a script here.  This play has been practiced a hundred times and the players know it's coming.

A fifth-year senior doesn't have the mental discipline to carry out a simple assignment.  That's a sad commentary.

That is not to single out Conner Davis.  The point is: if this is the case with our fifth-year seniors, it's the case all up and down the board.  Attention to detail waved bye-bye to Mike London ages ago, assuming the twain ever met.  And if it's foreign to the head coach, it's not getting passed on to the team.  This explains London's puzzling approach to clock management.  (Why didn't he take a timeout when GT faced 3rd-and-23 at the end of the first half?  It probably didn't even occur to him.)  This explains (in a blast from the past) how it's possible that London can make a big deal out of accountability in a press conference, and then forget to remove a player from kickoff duties whose bonehead kickoff penalty cost his team three points.

You might say it's unfair to extrapolate a whole huge generalization like that out of one play, but it's not like there isn't a mountain of evidence of London's failure to instill any mental discipline in himself or his team.  And the end-of-half play provided another example of the same.  Let's break down this play.

First off, some perspective on how hideously badly this play was executed.  UVA sent three receivers downfield and left seven men back in protect.  GT rushed three.  Four seconds after the snap, GT defensive end KeShun Freeman is swiping the ball out of Lambert's hands.

Seven on three and we can't protect the QB for five seconds.  That is pitiful.  The play starts with Zach Swanson lined up as an H-back, and in motion from left to right, likely because GT has overloaded the right side with defenders and is showing blitz on that side while the linebacker on his side is backing off.  Swanson is supposed to handle Freeman until the cavalry arrives in the form of Ryan Doull, pulling around from left to right as if it were a run play.  Swanson whiffs, badly, jumping outside while Freeman jumps inside.  Fortunately, Doull arrives just in time to give Freeman a shove that uses his own momentum to carry him well past the QB.  Swanson sees this and turns upfield, apparently seeing if there are any delayed rushers.  Finding that eight men have dropped into coverage, he spends the rest of the play looking a bit lost.

Doull's shove has taken Freeman out of the play momentarily.  That's enough for Doull, who decides the play is over, and starts spectating.  Freeman, of course, does not oblige, and Doull is just in time to gather up the ball from the ground (and earn an attaboy from the announcers for a "heads-up play", which would've been nice if it were true.)

Doull's a third-year player, and older than most, having taken a post-grad year as well.  Quitting on a play - it's just an inexcusable lack of sharpness from someone with his experience.  But it's fruitless to direct your anger at Doull.  This is the attitude that has permeated the whole team.  How can we expect the players to be mentally accountable if the head coach doesn't demand it?  For every such event easily spotted on TV, you can bet there are ten or fifteen more that are impossible to see.

It's hard to imagine a coach less interested in attention to detail than London is, which means the next coach will likely demand more of it than now, which means the players are in for a rude awakening when he shows up.  It might not be fun for them at first, but the end result will be a lot more watchable.

****************************

Quick brief things:

-- Some people are bellyaching about David Watford being in the game at receiver while Jamil Kamara languishes on the bench.  Oh please.  Nobody has any damn clue what Kamara is doing or not doing in order to not earn playing time, and the fact that London does actually seem to demand some kind of minimum standard of behavior or knowledge of the offense or something in order to earn your way onto the field - that does not register on the list of things to complain about.  You actually find people bringing up how bad he was as a quarterback, as if that somehow affects his ability to stick his hands out and hold on to a flying football.

-- If I'm London, I don't queue up one inch of game film on Florida State.  What good is preparation - take it from a 1% to a 2% chance to win that game?  Just punt that game - the path to a bowl game is much easier through Miami and VT, and hyper-preparation for the latter is not something I'd be against.

Prediction summary:

- Kevin Parks runs for 120 yards.  My God, not even close.  And no, being down 14-0, 21-7 in the first quarter is emphatically not a reason to abandon the run.  Maybe the fact that it wasn't working would've been a reason, but going pass-happy because of a two-TD deficit in the first half is pure panic.

- Keeon Johnson has a big day, which these days means four or more catches.  No, but he was certainly targeted more than often enough to succeed.

- UVA's season average for rushing yards allowed per attempt jumps at least a quarter-yard.  Remarkably, no.  I'm impressed.  It was very close, but didn't make it.  This is the point where I single out Max Valles for at least one ridiculously good play in which he got in position to discourage an option pitch and then ate up the quarterback.  Who the hell defends both options all by his own self?  Valles, that's who.  It was the football equivalent of Akil Mitchell's brilliant play on Jabari Parker from the ACC CG - you know the one.  Only, better.

- Lambert throws at least two more picks, one of which isn't his fault.  Tossing up a lame duck of a throw because he's being crushed by a pass rusher certainly qualifies.

Season prediction stats:

17-for-45 on specifics (38%)
5-3 straight up
4-2-1 ATS

game preview: Georgia Tech

Date/Time: Saturday, November 1; 3:30

TV: ESPNUVA

Record against the Jackets: 17-18-1

Last meeting: GT 35, UVA 25; 10/26/13, Charlottesville

Last weekend: UNC 28, UVA 27; GT 56, Pitt 28

Line: GT by 4.5

Injury report:

Virginia:

OUT: DE Trent Corney, WR Miles Gooch, LB Mark Hall, C Jackson Matteo, CB Demetrious Nicholson, C Eric Tetlow, OT Jay Whitmire
DOUBTFUL: WR Andre Levrone
QUESTIONABLE: S Divante Walker
PROBABLE: none

Georgia Tech:

OUT: RB Zach Laskey, RB Charles Perkins
DOUBTFUL: none
QUESTIONABLE: none
PROBABLE: OL Chris Griffin

Theoretically, the Coastal race could hardly be more wide-open; five out of seven teams have two losses, and the other two have one and three.  The mood isn't one of a title race, though; blowing a game to a rival in way-too-familiar fashion will do that.  Getting to a bowl game remains a plausible, if growing distant, goal, however.  If the Hoos are to do that, this game is a must-win.

-- UVA run offense vs. GT run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 145 carries, 613 yards, 4.2 ypc, 4 TDs
Taquan Mizzell: 51 carries, 211 yards, 4.1 ypc, 2 TDs

UVA offense:
170.13 yards/game, 4.19 yards/attempt
74th of 128 (national), 8th of 14 (ACC)

GT defense:
189.13 yards/game, 5.38 yards/attempt
114th of 128 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

For the past two weeks I've pointed out lousy run defenses, and for the past two weeks I've lamented our apparent unwillingness to take advantage.  Last chance, at least for a while.  GT has had some pretty good running backs on the schedule - Duke Johnson and James Conner, for starters - but it's not much excuse.  Georgia Southern ran absolutely wild on GT, almost completing a second-half comeback - and using GT's own triple option offense against them.  If you can't stop your own offense....

The UVA injury report is pretty lengthy this week, but one thing it doesn't have is any regular O-linemen.  As much as it can ever be said about this season, the O-line is healthy, and ready to take on a GT trench team that's been pushed around a lot.  Adam Gotsis gets double-teamed a bunch because nobody else strikes any fear in anyone, and the defensive ends are positively absent from the stat sheet (with the exception of eye-opening freshman KeShun Freeman.)

I'd like to say I'm done complaining about not utilizing the running game, because I'm tired of doing it and I don't want to be Johnny One-Note, but I doubt I'll be able to contain myself if for some reason we can't (or won't) run on GT.  Wofford piled up 271 yards.  We should at least be able to give Kevin Parks 120.

-- UVA pass offense vs. GT pass defense

Quarterback:
Greyson Lambert: 83/137, 60.6%; 4 TDs, 6 INTs, 825 yards; 6.02 ypa

Top receivers:
Taquan Mizzell: 27 rec., 143 yards, 0 TDs
Canaan Severin: 25 rec., 321 yards, 3 TDs
Kevin Parks: 20 rec., 123 yards, 2 TDs

UVA offense:
241.6 yards/game, 6.60 yards/attempt
89th of 128 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)

GT defense:
240.3 yards/game, 7.94 yards/attempt
112th of 128 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)

Then again, if we don't run the ball, maybe it's just because we decided to take our chances against GT's forgiving pass defense.  On the plus side for the Jackets, eight different players have an interception; they have an active secondary and some linebackers that can effectively play the pass, particularly Quayshawn Nealy.

The rush isn't great, though.  And if GT isn't getting turnovers, the other team is moving the ball like crazy.  Michael Brewer - who's playing so great for VT that Hokie fans are calling for Mark Leal - was a hair shy of 300 yards, and Chad Voytik and Marquise Williams blew past that mark.  Georgia Southern needed only 13 completions to reach 245 yards on the day.

I'm assuming Greyson Lambert gets the call again.  Like I said: don't turn the ball over, and he should find room to throw.  Obviously that's been a little problem of his, although bouncy hands, lousy playcalls, and untimely pressure have all contributed mightily.  The Hoos will be shorthanded at receiver, though; Miles Gooch's injury looks like a long-term thing (truly unfortunate, for a guy who's paid his dues) and one of the more important deep threats is unlikely to play as well.  UVA has depth at receiver, but those are two big hits.  Caanan Severin needs to have a big day, and someone like Keeon Johnson or Doni Dowling will have to step up big too.

Given the injuries at receiver, once again I'd just as soon tilt the playcalling towards the run.  If the game turns shootout, though, which it might as GT has an awfully effective offense, the game will hinge on what Lambert can do.  I'm OK with taking our chances, as GT tends to let you move the ball regardless of how you want to.

-- GT run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Justin Thomas: 123 carries, 717 yards, 5.8 ypc, 4 TDs
Synjyn Days: 38 carries, 199 yards, 5.2 ypc, 1 TD

GT offense:
326.13 yards/game, 6.17 yards/attempt
7th of 128 (national), 1st of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
100.38 yards/game, 3.02 yards/attempt
10th of 128 (national), 4th of 14 (ACC)

There's little to say here that you don't know by now.  It's the triple option.  It is what it is.  It's probably a tribute to that offense, that it basically operates the same year after year without concern about you adjusting to it, and still works.

GT's running it pretty well this year.  Justin Thomas appears to be much better at it than Vad Lee was.  With Lee, all you had to do was force him to keep, and you won.  (Case in point: Lee only ran the ball four times in our loss last year.)  It's much more balanced this year.  As ever, sticking to your assignment is #1.

The Jackets are a little shorthanded, as Zach Laskey misses his second game with a shoulder injury.  Former quarterback Synjyn Days took over against Pitt and the Jackets didn't miss a beat.  Charles Perkins, averaging 10.9 yards a carry, hurt his knee against Pitt, so Tech is losing some depth, but again - they just handed the ball to Broderick Snoddy instead, and he went and did the same things Perkins does, so I'm not chalking up any improved chances just because of these injuries.  Just gotta play the assignments, and hopefully UVA's very shiny run defense stats don't get blowed up.

-- GT pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Justin Thomas: 55/115, 47.8%; 11 TDs, 3 INTs, 1,106 yards; 9.62 ypa

Top receivers:
DeAndre Smelter: 20 rec., 462 yards, 5 TDs
Darren Waller: 10 rec., 205 yards, 2 TDs
Tony Zenon: 7 rec., 146 yards, 1 TD

GT offense:
155.8 yards/game, 9.66 yards/attempt
3rd of 128 (national), 1st of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
236.3 yards/game, 6.80 yards/attempt
52nd of 128 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

Once again there's not much new to talk about.  GT's pass offense is as usual: it generates big plays when it connects, but more passes fall incomplete than not.  GT has their big-play receiver in DeAndre Smelter - they've been missing that aspect the past couple years, and this offense is at its best when it has that Demaryius Thomas type of guy running deep routes.

I'm a little more worried than usual, and would be even more if Quin Blanding wasn't a good student of the game.  As free safety, it's Blanding's job to never ever ever get sucked in until the ball crosses the line of scrimmage.  Once it does, he can crash; til then, letting anything behind him is a potential disaster.  Don't think Paul Johnson won't notice, if Blanding starts cheating upwards.

Ultimately, though, the story with GT's passing game is the same as always: you'll probably lose if you let it generate big plays, but stopping it doesn't guarantee much.

-- Favorability ratings

UVA run offense: 6
UVA pass offense: 6
UVA run defense: 4
UVA pass defense: 4

Average: 5

-- Outlook

That favorability stuff above is, this week, just about entirely based on the opponent's abilities.  UVA will be hoping its powerful defense is capable of stopping the well-run gimmick; GT will be hoping UVA's offense isn't good enough to take advantage of its porous defense.  I'd probably be leaning toward the optimistic side if UVA had won just one of the last two, but it wasn't to be.  Now you've got annoying coach tricks rearing their ugly head again, and the game is on the road.  It's hard to see this turning out well anymore.

-- Predictions

- Kevin Parks runs for 120 yards.

- Keeon Johnson has a big day, which these days means four or more catches.

- UVA's season average for rushing yards allowed per attempt jumps at least a quarter-yard.

- Lambert throws at least two more picks, one of which isn't his fault.

Final score: GT 35, UVA 28

-- Rest of the ACC

Byes: Clemson, Wake Forest

Florida State 42, Louisville 31 - Thu. - With an effective two-game lead, and Clemson only having two games to play, FSU has just about sewn up the Atlantic.  This is why you put that damn game in November, you idiots in the scheduling office.

Duke @ Pittsburgh - 12:00 - One more piece of the crazy Coastal puzzle.

Boston College @ Virginia Tech - 12:30 - VT has proven itself unable to stop most running games, which is really bad news against a team that's already run for over 2,200 yards.  BC is going for bowl eligibility in this one.

North Carolina @ Miami - 12:30 - The Canes are hitting their stride, and favored by a ton.

NC State @ Syracuse - 3:00 - NC State is clinging to bowl game dreams, and probably needs this one to get there.

tipping point

It's not always you can tell exactly when the end comes.  You could call us fortunate in that regard.  We can debate for a long time why Mike London has not succeeded as UVA's head coach, and will not succeed as UVA's head coach, but at least now we know when it ended.  As soon as the ball landed in the hands of a UNC defensive lineman during a horribly ill-advised screen pass.  Flip the switch, turn out the lights, and start the search.

Kevin Parks talked about a knife to the gut, and it's extremely hard not to feel bad for the guy.  The ball was taken out of his hands by the coaching staff.  I don't get it.  The announcers spent the whole game talking about Parks and how the coaching staff raves about his character and talent - which is great, and I believe it 100%.  Now I'm just wondering when the staff plans on using that to their benefit.  Parks was left waiting for a pass that never got there, which is somehow sadly fitting.

Sure, there's four games left.  Anything could happen and so on and so forth.  I don't see it.  Not from a coaching staff that constantly puts its players in position to fail.  It's everything from the preposterous to the amateurish.  After five years, Mike London still can't figure out how to make sure the right number of players go on the field.  It's not even the first time, nor is it the first time a special teams unit ran pell-mell down the field without caring where the ball was.  You can look it up.  It's a pitiful disservice to his guys.

There's one thing left to hope for: sending him off with a win on Thanksgiving.  Maybe a bowl game in Shreveport or Detroit.  If the Hoos can figure out how to beat a Georgia Tech team that just dropped 56 points on Pittsburgh, or a Miami team that looks like the division's best so far.  Maybe the VT game can be a 5-6 Thunderdome match.  Two teams enter, one team leaves bowl-eligible.  Not what anyone envisioned, that's for sure.

**************************************************

Let's talk offense for a little here.  One of the most common complaints about Steve Fairchild is that the offense is "vanilla."  It's time to put that to rest once and for all.  Next time you hear someone complain that it's "vanilla," just know they're only saying that as a reflex action.  The design is actually rather good, and here's the thing: I really like it.  UVA ran a couple reverses and a tricky WR pass that Lambert caught, the second WR pass they've run this year.  There was plenty of downfield passing.  Lots of different players are involved.  This is not just some handoff-handoff-dump pass-punt crap.  This is pretty complex.

And here's what I like best: Most run plays are run from a look that could send the ball any one of three different ways.  You have a shotgun look with a running back next to the QB.  A receiver (or someone like Taquan Mizzell) goes in motion and the snap is timed so that the motion man arrives just about the same time the snap does.  This isn't easy; the quarterback needs a lot of reps to get that timing down.  Then the QB can hand to the motion man, he can hand to the RB, or he can simply take it himself.  I don't think this is ever read-option, even though it was called that when Fairchild first got here.  It just looks like one.  I think this is called by the coaches.  That's just fine.  The point is that the defense has to hesitate a split second before committing to a ballcarrier.  This has given the O-line room to execute a block, and in turn, the run game is fairly productive.  This is despite an O-line lacking badly in experience and held together with chicken wire and duct tape.

I have just about no problems with the design of this offense.  Given an experienced, healthy O-line and maybe a real explosion threat at receiver, which is missing right now, you could really see some fireworks with this offense.  However, I have huge problems with the execution.  Fairchild isn't too vanilla, he's too goddam tricky.  Too fast to abandon what's working, too quick to try and out-chess-match the other DC.  Here's how you coach the last drive** that ended in the screen pass pick: You call together your O-linemen.  You get in their faces and inform them - loudly - that the plan is to stuff the ball down the throats of those no-tackling pretenders over there and they'd better hit some SOB as hard as they can and the devil take the hindmost.  And then you three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust your way to a win.  Especially when you're one more first down away from game-clinching field goal.  When, on the other hand, the trick play you so desperately want to run is so damn predictable that the announcers had you pegged, you're doing it wrong.  I don't blame Greyson Lambert one bit for the pickoff.  I blame Mr. Tricky up in the booth.

(I do, though, think the first one was totally on Lambert.  You gotta know in that case: an incompletion is just as good as a dumpoff.  They both mean a field goal.  Some people called it bad luck that the ball landed in the hands of a defender, but, no, that's entirely predictable when you throw toward that many defenders.

**I know, I know: said the keyboard jockey who's never coached a game of football in his life.  But then, the guys who do coach for a living, aren't exactly doing a better job.

**************************************************

So, let's review some predictions:

- Greyson Lambert starts.  Yup.

- The UVA passing game generates over 300 yards.  Ah, bummer - they were close at 284.  And getting to 300 probably would've won the game.

- UVA passes more than they run.  The Hoos attempted 41 passes and were credited with 43 runs, but one sack by UNC makes it an exactly even split.  Still not good enough.

- UNC also passes for more than 300 yards.  They did not, which is rather a credit to the defense.

- Zero sacks again for UVA, but not zero turnovers.  Half right is wrong.

- UNC averages fewer than 4 yards a carry.  UNC's running game was absolutely stuffed.  Very good work there by the defense, again.

New stats:

16-of-41 on specifics (39%.)
4-3 straight up
3-2-1 ATS

game preview: North Carolina

Date/Time: Saturday, October 25; 12:30

TV: ESPN3, ACC Net.

Record against the Heels: 54-60-4

Last meeting: UNC 45, UVA 14; 11/9/13, Chapel Hill

Last weekend: Duke 20, UVA 13; UNC 48, GT 43

Line: UVA by 7

Injury report:

Virginia:

OUT: C Jackson Matteo, CB Demetrious Nicholson, OG Eric Tetlow, OT Jay Whitmire
DOUBTFUL: None
QUESTIONABLE: OG Ryan Doull
PROBABLE: None

North Carolina:

OUT: RB Conner Gonet
DOUBTFUL: RB Elijah Hood
QUESTIONABLE: OT R.J. Prince
PROBABLE: OT Kiaro Holts, WR Kendrick Singleton, DT Tyler Powell

This hasn't been a real competitive rivalry lately.  UNC's margins of victory the past four years: 34, 11, 24, 31.  It put an abrupt end to the long winning streak the Hoos had over the Heels in Scott Stadium.  UNC is reeling a bit at the moment, though.  Nobody's too sure what's a bigger scandal: the fact that an office staffer artificially pumped up the grades of thousands of UNC students over 18 years, or the Carolina defense.  One is a horrible affront to everything people expect out of an elite university, and the other made Debby Crowder a household name.

-- UVA run offense vs. UNC run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 120 carries, 502 yards, 4.2 avg., 3 TDs
Khalek Shepherd: 46 carries, 212 yards, 4.6 avg., 1 TD

UVA offense:
171.7 yards/game, 4.26 yards/attempt
69th of 128 (national), 8th of 14 (ACC)

UNC defense:
218.0 yards/game, 4.81 yards/attempt
99th of 128 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)

Stop me if you've heard this story before: Bad teams able to run on supposedly ACC-level defense.  This is not quite as much so as Duke; for one thing, UNC has played teams with a pulse, and not everyone has run buck-wild, either.  On the other hand, UNC can't be said to have shut anyone down, either, not even Liberty.  Only Clemson really had trouble running the ball, but Clemson doesn't actually have a good run game.

Neither does VT - as has been on display the past couple Thursdays - but they were at least functional against UNC.  East Carolina, of course, went apeshit.  And the Carolina defense has been rather prone to allowing long rushing plays by wide receivers; Cam Phillips of VT had a 30-yarder and GT's DeAndre Smelter went for 75.  At some point UVA will probably try an end-around with Darius Jennings.  If it's run to the wide side of the field and not stupidly at the near sideline, it has a chance of going for big yards.

If Ryan Doull is able to return, it should also provide a boost.  Doull isn't amazing, but he's an improvement over Cody Wallace.  And of course, the other big If is whether or not Steve Fairchild actually has the guts to stick with the running game.  UNC's problem here is that they run a nickel defense without an especially stout front six.  The front four is pretty average, and the two starting linebackers - Jeff Schoettmer and Travis Hughes - aren't very productive.  Hughes, who you'll remember as a guy hotly pursued by UVA out of the 757, is only on pace for 65 tackles, a low number for a starting linebacker.

As with Duke, attacking the middle ought to provide more dividends than trying to tiptoe around the edges; un-enamored as I am of our ability to move a line, you'd rather not give a nickel defense time to pursue to the play.  UNC's safeties aren't as strong as Duke's - there's no Jeremy Cash running around - but this still really is one of those games where coachspeak about committing to the run should actually pay off.

-- UVA pass offense vs. UNC pass defense

Quarterbacks:
Matt Johns: 82/147, 55.8%; 1,012 yards, 8 TDs, 5 INTs; 6.88 avg.
Greyson Lambert: 63/97, 64.9%; 564 yards, 2 TDs, 4 INTs; 5.81 avg.

Top receivers:
Taquan Mizzell: 24 rec., 118 yards, 0 TDs
Miles Gooch: 23 rec., 349 yards, 1 TD
Canaan Severin: 23 rec., 266 yards, 2 TDs

UVA offense:
235.6 yards/game, 6.54 yards/attempt
90th of 128 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

UNC defense:
304.7 yards/game, 8.71 yards/attempt
121st of 128 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

Last week was a mixed-messages party.  Mike London declared that "nobody loses their starting job because they're injured," didn't put Greyson Lambert on the injury list, and didn't start him - and then didn't even play him, despite assurances to the contrary, because a quarterback who completed less than half his passes was in too much of a rhythm.

So I really hope it's just that London thinks he's being clever by continuing to refuse to name an actual starter, but I have my doubts.  Matt Johns didn't play horribly last week, but that impression comes about only because the passes he did complete went for big yardage.  (And because it was still better than almost every David Watford performance.)

This area is where UNC diverges heavily from Duke, however.  Duke had a respectable pass defense.  UNC hasn't been able to stop anyone.  OK, Clemson's Deshaun Watson has turned out to be a pretty good quarterback.  But Quinn Kaehler?  San Diego State is just slightly inside the top-100 in passing efficiency and the Aztec QB Kaehler threw for 341 yards.  Carolina doesn't bring an aggressive pass rush, and probably has only one player who elicits much concern in offensive coordinators: cornerback Brian Walker, who's picked off three passes and returned them all a long way.

Given a choice, I'd prefer to see Lambert play most, if not all, of the game.  Against a pass defense like this one, incomplete passes are a waste of time, and you'd rather not give UNC's offense much of a chance to get on the field.  The worst thing you can do is a three-and-out drive that takes a minute off the clock.  If Michael Brewer can complete two-thirds of his passes and lead VT to 34 points, surely the Hoos can figure this out too.

-- UNC run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Marquise Williams: 91 carries, 448 yards, 4.9 avg, 4 TDs
T.J. Logan: 47 carries, 213 yards, 4.5 avg., 1 TD

UNC offense:
152.3 yards/game, 4.07 yards/attempt
80th of 128 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
100.6 yards/game, 3.03 yards/attempt
11th of 128 (national), 2nd of 14 (ACC)

It looks like UNC won't have running back Elijah Hood for Saturday; Hood leads Carolina's RBs in carries, but Romar Morris has been just as productive, and T.J. Logan's been better.  News has been better for UNC on the offensive line, though; the right side consists of Landon Turner and Jon Heck, both of whom missed time with injuries earlier in the year, and both of whom got back on the field in the past couple weeks.  Not coincidentally, UNC ran for about 190 yards in both the ND and GT games.

The primary ballcarrier, though, is quarterback Marquise Williams, because UNC runs a great deal of read-option.  In the basic-est of read-option plays, a right-handed quarterback like Williams runs to the left while the RB heads right, so strong days from Logan and Morris with a fully healthy right side of the line were no surprise.

Williams is a strong runner; he's a fairly big guy, linebacker-sized but elusive.  Quin Blanding learned a lesson about college quarterbacks when UCLA's Brett Hundley ran him over in front of the goal line; this is the time to apply it.  Blanding's got a tough job in the read-option.  He has to watch the handoff and head where the ball is, while ensuring that there isn't a receiver streaking downfield.  The read-option creates a numerical mismatch in favor of the offense, so quality safety play - i.e., bringing reinforcements - is one way to nullify that.  Traditionally the read-option is defended with a "scrape exchange" which lures the QB into keeping and then running smack into a linebacker.  In this case that will be Daquan Romero, another very important player for this matchup.

The third way to beat the read-option?  Simply blow it up at the line.  One of its goals is to get multiple blockers onto the second level, which is hard to do if Jon Tenuta has dialed up the right blitz.  Anyway, the run game in Fedora's offense is a clear second fiddle.  UVA is strong against the run for a reason, and should have success regardless, but this isn't the main matchup.

-- UNC pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Marquise Williams: 156/242, 64.5%; 1,776 yards, 15 TDs, 6 INTs; 7.34 avg.

Top receivers:
Ryan Switzer: 34 rec., 429 yards, 3 TDs
Mack Hollins: 24 rec., 435 yards, 5 TDs
Bug Howard: 23 rec., 197 yards, 2 TDs

UNC offense:
300.0 yards/game, 7.14 yards/attempt
62nd of 128, 5th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
230.7 yards/game, 6.48 yards/attempt
35th of 128 (national), 7th of 14 (ACC)

This didn't go well last week.  Zero sacks, zero turnovers.  Under those circumstances, holding Duke to 20 points is pretty decent, but it's four scoring drives.  UNC has only allowed 11 sacks in 7 games thanks to a solid O-line in protection and quick-hitting passes, and Williams has only thrown six picks as well.  And with a faster-paced offense, four scoring drives could turn into six.

Coverage will simply have to be excellent, and a little more pressure on Williams would help.  He's elusive, has a strong arm, and can extend a play with his feet and then fit the ball into a small spot.  And the Heels spread it around a lot.  Quite a few plays go to the running backs, but four different receivers all have 20+ catches this year.  Ryan Switzer in particular is speedy and dangerous in the open field, and the Heels like to set him up in the slot with blockers and space.

UNC also likes to be tricky; receivers Switzer and Quinshad Davis have each thrown a touchdown (one of which was to Williams) as well as punter Tommy Hibbard.  When you run as many plays as UNC does (they're one of the fastest teams in the country at just under 80 plays a game) the bag of tricks has to be large.

UVA needs to score points, yes, but the game is likely to be won or lost here.  Pretty much nobody's been able to stop the UNC passing attack, except for VT.  UVA can't likely win a shootout, so the Hoos need to drag the point total down to a more workable level.  Cut down on UNC's big plays and limit their passing attack, and it's possible; if UNC is able to put up 40-plus points again, UVA probably won't be able to overcome that.

-- Favorability ratings

UVA run offense: 5.5
UVA pass offense: 6.5
UVA run defense: 6
UVA pass defense: 2.5

Average: 5.125

-- Outlook

This is a very, very big game.  I don't usually go in for speculation about "is this Mike London's most important game???" but this is about that important.  With Miami and FSU both yet to be played (and let's face it, Miami is a good team and the likely favorite for the division title) 4-4 is no place to be if you want to get bowl eligible.  That most likely requires beating both Georgia Tech and VT to get there.

Well, GT is basically Carolina with a funkier offense.  No defense at all, but capable of winning a shootout.  Can't beat UNC?  Then probably would have trouble with GT.  And VT, despite the fact that their 24/7 board boasts no fewer than 22 different "fire the coaches" threads from just the Miami game alone, undoubtedly has something up their sleeve the same way they surprised Ohio State.

So this is the crossroads.  Win this one, and finding one more - just one more, even two - should be doable, and confidence will be renewed.  Lose and....well, we don't even know if 6-6 would save London's job, let alone something worse.

-- Predictions

- Greyson Lambert starts.

- The UVA passing game generates over 300 yards.

- UVA passes more than they run.

- UNC also passes for more than 300 yards.

- Zero sacks again for UVA, but not zero turnovers.

- UNC averages fewer than 4 yards a carry.

Final score: UVA 31, UNC 28

-- Rest of the ACC

Byes: Duke, Florida State, Louisville, NC State

-- Miami 30, Virginia Tech 6 - Thu. - Overheard from the broadcasters:

"Can you imagine [the VT] offense against [the UVA] defense??"
"..."
"........."
"I don't think I want to."

"The Coastal is so wide-open; you can't count out any team in the race."
"Well, except for Virginia Tech."

-- Boston College @ Wake Forest - 3:30 - It's rare that a team is as much of a running powerhouse as BC without employing some Paul Johnsonish throwback kind of offense, but BC pulls it off.

-- Georgia Tech @ Pittsburgh - 3:30 - Five teams in the Coastal are either 2-1 or 2-2, including these two.  This week should help clarify things a little.  For GT's side of things, they started hot but it's not inconceivable (though also not real likely) that they could finish outside the bowl picture, even though they only need one more win.

-- Syracuse @ Clemson - 7:00 - Clemson should add themselves to the ACC's bowl rolls this week.

game preview: Duke

Date/Time: Saturday, October 18; 12:30

TV: ESPN3

Record against the Blue Devils: 33-32

Last meeting: Duke 35, UVA 22; 10/19/13, Charlottesville

Last weekend: UVA bye; Duke 31, GT 25

Line: Duke by 2.5

Injury report:

Virginia:

OUT: OG Ryan Doull, C Jackson Matteo, CB Demetrious Nicholson, OG Jay Whitmire
DOUBTFUL: None
QUESTIONABLE: None
PROBABLE: None

Duke:

OUT: TE Dan Bellinson, CB Johnathan Lloyd, OL Trip McNeill, DT Jamal Wallace, LB Kelby Brown, TE Braxton Deaver, DE Taariq Shabazz
DOUBTFUL: None
QUESTIONABLE: None
PROBABLE: DE Dezmond Johnson, RB Shaq Powell

Duke has a good football team these days.  Eight years ago, that was the first definition in the dictionary under "unthinkable."  Right underneath was the idea that any ACC team might lose five out of six to them.  And let's be honest: I'm still not used to it.  The good news is, if we lose again, we can walk out muttering "just wait til basketball season" and mean it.

-- UVA run offense vs. Duke run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 104 carries, 427 yards, 4.1 ypc, 3 TDs
Taquan Mizzell: 42 carries, 173 yards, 4.1 ypc, 2 TDs

UVA offense:
177.0 yards/game, 4.23 yards/attempt
73rd of 128 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

Duke defense:
202.33 yards/game, 4.56 yards/attempt
85th of 128 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)

Ryan Doull's unexpected appearance on the injury report is a medium-serious blow to the running game and a pretty solid hit to the already razor-thin depth on the OL.  Doull will probably be replaced by Cody Wallace, who's been in and out of the lineup most of his career - and mostly out this year.  Wallace has always been marginal at best; the fact that Doull jumped all the way from kick protection to starting lineup, past Wallace in his fifth year, is not a ringing endorsement of Wallace's skills.

The good news is Duke's defense, which is junk.  Elon - a 1-5 I-AA team - sent their backs through the Duke defense for 5.4 yards a carry, sacks excluded.  Tulane's top two backs combined for 6.5.  Duke's defense wasn't great last year, either; losing top linebacker Kelby Brown really hurt.  Jeremy Cash at safety is a very good run-stopper and basically a linebacker, but he can't do it all himself.  Duke's defensive front line is somewhat undersized and not very good.

So it's a resistible-force vs. movable-object kind of matchup.  It doesn't take a running game like Miami's to tear up the Duke defense (although they did as well.)  I've said that UVA could ride Kevin Parks to a pretty successful run game if the O-line could get just a little bit of push and let Parks build up momentum as he hit the line.  That could be illustrated this week, even with a depleted line, and the fact that UVA's playcalling has skewed to the run side of things should help even more.  Duke's incredible-shreddable defense should probably let Parks roll to a second straight 100-yard game.

-- UVA pass offense vs. Duke pass defense

Quarterbacks:
Matt Johns: 60/102, 58.8%; 687 yards, 7 TDs, 5 INTs; 6.74 ypa
Greyson Lambert: 63/97, 64.9%; 564 yards, 2 TDs, 4 INTs; 5.81 ypa

Top receivers:
Canaan Severin: 21 rec., 255 yards, 2 TDs
Taquan Mizzell: 21 rec., 99 yards, 0 TDs
Miles Gooch: 17 rec., 220 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
220.7 yards/game, 6.49 yards/attempt
95th of 128 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)

Duke defense:
184.5 yards/game, 5.62 yards/attempt
13th of 128 (national), 2nd of 14 (ACC)

That defense that's been so friendly to run games, though, has tightened up against the pass.  Duke runs a nickel package almost exclusively and they have the safety depth to do it.  Cash is just a good defender regardless of what the offense is doing, and DeVon Edwards is an excellent complement.  There isn't much of a pass rush, but DE Jordan DeWalt-Ondijo provides a decent challenge there.

Greyson Lambert isn't on the injury report.  He'll almost certainly get the start, but nobody really knows what London is thinking when it comes to the hook.  You know my thoughts: let the starter play.  Johns has done a solid job, but Lambert, I think, has done a little bit of a better job taking care of the ball (you'll remember, his first two picks weren't his fault.)

That'll be the main thing here.  Duke's inability to stop the run could open up certain passing opportunities as well, little screens and such, the sort of thing that Steve Fairchild tries in order to put the ball in Taquan Mizzell's hands in space.  Lambert should usually have time, as well.  Duke's numbers have come largely against crap offenses - Kansas and Tulane in particular really suck at passing the ball - but they've at least stopped them, unlike in the run game.  In Tulane's case, the Blue Devil defense took two interceptions all the way back.  If the running game can get moving like I think, Lambert's main job will be zero INTs.  Not easy, against a quality group of safeties, but I don't think much will be asked of him.

-- Duke run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Josh Snead: 49 carries, 256 yards, 5.2 ypc, 2 TDs
Shaun Wilson: 43 carries, 466 yards, 10.8 ypc, 4 TDs

Duke offense:
228.5 yards/game, 5.83 yards/attempt
12th of 128 (national), 2nd of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
91.5 yards/game, 2.72 yards/attempt
4th of 128 (national), 2nd of 14 (ACC)

Duke's run game has been enormously successful, frankly, and it doesn't matter who carries the ball.  They spread it out a ton.  Freshman Shaun Wilson piled up 245 yards on just 12 carries against the admittedly pitiful Kansas Jayhawks.  Josh Snead and Shaq Powell have been very solid backs throughout their careers.  And Duke likes to run their quarterbacks plenty as well; Anthony Boone is mobile enough, but Duke has packages as well for Thomas Sirk, an excellent runner with good size.

Of course, the one time Duke went against a decent defense, they got snuffed pretty good.  That was Miami - the game was played in a drenching downpour, but Miami did alright on the ground.  Duke does have a pretty solid offensive line, but I think you might have been introduced before to the UVA front six-or-seven.  Pitt's James Conner certainly was.

The main thing for UVA will be to sniff out the various looks Duke will throw at them, especially when Sirk enters the game.  Duke's O-line is good and will win their share of battles, making the linebackers and Quin Blanding pretty important.  And that should make Duke fans nervous.

-- Duke pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Anthony Boone: 121/210, 57.6%; 1,186 yards, 8 TDs, 3 INTs; 5.65 ypa

Top receivers:
Jamison Crowder: 32 rec., 372 yards, 2 TDs
Max McCaffrey: 23 rec., 236 yards, 3 TDs
Issac Blakeney: 19 rec., 212 yards, 3 TDs

Duke offense:
205.5 yards/game, 5.50 yards/attempt
122nd of 128 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
239.3 yards/game, 6.81 yards/attempt
54th of 128 (national), 8th of 14 (ACC)

Statistically, Anthony Boone appears to have taken a step backwards from last year, a worrying sign given Duke's competition so far (remember, GT's defense = not that good.)  Six and a half percentage points worse in the completion department, a yard and a half worse per attempt.  This is the one point where we'll make a big allowance for the rainstorm in Miami, though - even though it was only during the second half.  Take away Boone's Miami stats and he's still worse, but not appreciably.

Still, perhaps this will be a telling stat: the WRs' yards per catch.  UVA fans at times bemoan a dink-and-dunk approach, but every one of UVA's top four wide receivers (RBs not included) has a higher per-catch average than every one of Duke's top four.  Duke and dunk.

This is reflected in Duke's pass protection stats; they've only allowed four sacks all season, which is a testament to the O-line, the mobility of the quarterbacks, and the quickness with which they get rid of the ball.  Duke will probably try and drop the ball off even quicker given UVA's blitzy pass rush.  There could be some plays where that burns us - slant routes and the like - so safety play will be huge.  The other important thing is not getting sucked in on Sirk packages, although he hasn't completed a pass since the Kansas game (third of the season) and isn't guaranteed to even try a pass here.

-- Favorability ratings:

UVA run offense: 6
UVA pass offense: 4
UVA run defense: 6.5
UVA pass defense: 6

Average: 5.6

-- Outlook

It's certainly possible I'm just getting sucked in to the excitement of novel ideas like a winning record, but - I'm not impressed with Duke's schedule, I'm not impressed with their results, with scores that belie a lack of statistical dominance, and I'm not impressed with their front six.  And I'm like a tweenage girl at a One Direction concert for the front line of our defense.

So I'm optimistic.  Any time a team faces us with a bad defense and a good offense, rather than the other way round, we have at least a chance and probably more.  UVA's defense isn't good enough to carry the offense through every single game, but this one - I'd say yes.

-- Predictions

-- Kevin Parks runs for over 100 yards.

-- Greyson Lambert (or our starting quarterback) attempts fewer than 20 passes.

-- UVA loses the turnover battle.

-- Duke's run game is more than a yard worse than their average.

-- Quin Blanding has 10 or more tackles.

-- UVA wins time of possession by six or more minutes.

Final score: UVA 28, Duke 17

-- Rest of the ACC

Bye: Miami

Virginia Tech @ Pittsburgh - Thu., 7:30 - I've been watching this game all evening, and Tech's offense is pitiful and the Hokies are basically getting dominated, but I've never seen a team blow stuff up in its own face like Pitt is doing.

Syracuse @ Wake Forest - 12:00 - A pair of 0-2 teams battle.  Critical game for Cuse if they're going to salvage bowl eligibility.

Clemson @ Boston College - 3:30 - Clemson is favored, but only by 4.5; a huge game if they want to try and stay in shouting distance of FSU.

NC State @ Louisville - 3:30 - The Pack started 4-0 and are now 4-3, staring at 4-4, proving that you can "schedule for success" and still be a total embarrassment.

Georgia Tech @ North Carolina - 7:00 - I may actually Tivo this one in hopes that the final score is like 84-77.

Florida State vs. Notre Dame - 8:00 - Whoever wins has a very, very inside track for inclusion in the four-team playoff.

anticlimactic

News came out earlier last week that the color commentator for the internetz broadcast of the Kent State game would be none other than Al Groh himself.  Not just a few UVA fans were hoping he'd say something that'd sound a lot like the same guy who read the man-in-the-glass poem as his public farewell to the program.  Some might also have been hoping for some better insight to the current program than the average joe-blow.

I think both camps were disappointed.  Groh made exactly one reference to his coaching career, and it was to his Jets days and even then it was a nice little anecdote about Khalek Shepherd's dad rather than "well I did this and I did that."  "Circumstances" never escaped his lips, he only even bothered with one goofy-ass word the whole game ("UVA re-personneled their special teams units") no poems were read, and I'd give him a solid B or B- as a commentator - a bit like Bobby Knight lite.  Would listen again - but would not expect flamboyant entertainment.

So went the game.  Had the second half gone like the first, it would've generated post-game fireworks win or lose.  Then UVA came out for the third quarter and clamped way the hell down.  You can easily imagine the halftime message in the visitors' locker room - keep it up, we got this, right where we wanted 'em, etc. etc.  When the quarter turned again, Matt Johns had just rumbled 42 yards and turned the field almost completely around on a Kent State defense that'd seen their deficit blow up from four to twenty-one points in a near blink.  I imagine the message by then was "well, shit."

The ACC schedule now begins in earnest, after one heavy-duty appetizer, and the Hoos have done as well as anyone could expect - maybe a touch better.  Nobody's checked out with a trail of Fire Londons in their wake, and the "division" is wide-open enough to hold everyone's interest.  The whole season still hangs in the balance, but that's the whole point.  Barring a jaw-dropping miracle, the only way anything could've been decided by now was decidedly negative.  We'll go into October with nothing predetermined.  I like it that way.  Well, I'd like it better if we could say we just don't know which bowl we're going to, but right now, what we have is a lot better than what some others have.  I'll take it.

*******************************************

-- Ongoing quarterback opinion: Matt Johns did a nice job and Greyson Lambert is still the starter.  But there's competition in a good way.  Lambert is being pushed hard here.

-- My usual take on games like this applies here.  That is, if you flip the two halves of the game, nobody would worry.  I'm probably overreacting because I don't think too many folks are up in arms over the first half, which had all the imprints of a team coming off a bye week (as Kent State was) and having spent that whole two weeks drawing up stuff to attack UVA with.  And then running out of ideas after UVA adjusted.

-- Quin Blanding just rocketed past the linebacker duo of Coley and Romero in the team tackles lead.

-- These throwbacks are sharp, and would be more than perfectly acceptable as the regular uniforms if you topped them with the regular blue helmet with the V-sabres.  Especially if that helmet had stripes matching the shoulder stripes.

Prediction summary!

- Demetrious Nicholson plays.

- So does Daniel Hamm.

- Greyson Lambert does not.  This was sort of a cheap way to pick up three correct predictions, but at least it lets me take credit for reading tea leaves correctly as well as calling the game as being out of hand early enough to dig deep into the bench.

- UVA's top three backs - Parks, Mizzell, and Shepherd - each beat their season averages per carry, which right now are 3.1, 3.4, and 4.6.  Well, drat: the first two guys blew up those numbers but Shepherd did not come close.  Still, the running game was effective.  If Kevin Mizzell (or Taquan Parks) were the feature workhorse back, he'd have gone 122 yards on 21 carries, an excellent day.

- Kent State fails to reach 50 yards on the ground, including sacks.  The ESPN stats are a little messed up here, and I think it's because they don't count runs that end in fumbles as yardage.  The UVA and KSU sites agree: the Flashes went 85 yards forward and 51 yards backward, culminating in a prediction win.

- Max Valles records at least one sack and two batted passes.  He was a sack and a batted pass short.

Four out of six (albeit a bit of a cheapish four; next week I won't go that route) results in the following stats for the year:

11-for-24 on specifics (45.8%)
3-1 straight up
2-1 ATS

game preview: Kent State

Date/Time: Saturday, September 27; 3:30

TV: ESPN3

Record against the Flashes: 0-0

Last meeting: N/A

Last weekend: BYU 41, UVA 33; KSU bye

Line: UVA by 27.5

Injury report: N/A

Like UCLA before, UVA has never played Kent State.  Unlike UCLA, the Golden Flashes do not present a formidable challenge.  The Hoos have gone bowling once under Mike London, which also happens to be the only season UVA has had a winning record after five games.  That's the expectation this week, though; failure to do so wouldn't be so much a nail in the coffin - more a railroad spike.  That said, it's not a given that Kent State isn't the worst team on UVA's schedule.

-- UVA run offense vs. KSU run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 63 carries, 197 yards, 3.1 avg, 1 TD
Khalek Shepherd: 31 carries, 144 yards, 4.6 avg, 1 TD

UVA offense:
145.75 yards/game, 3.58 yards/attempt
96th of 128 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)

KSU defense:
215.0 yards/game, 4.39 yards/attempt
84th of 128 (national), 6th of 13 (MAC)

The main intrigue here is whether Khalek Shepherd is working his way past Taquan Mizzell as the second back in the offense.  He was certainly the hot hand against BYU, getting the most carries and yards of any running back on either team.  Offensive line struggles notwithstanding, Mizzell has simply been a disappointment so far, and it wouldn't surprise to see Shepherd nose into the conversation much as he did last year.

Kent State has done a respectable-ish job against teams of similar talent levels - the Ohio Bobcats didn't get much going, and South Alabama got their yards but had to grind for them - but were utterly overmatched against Ohio State.  No surprise, that.  KSU is a little undersized at defensive tackle, employing the 265-pound Nate Terhune at three-tech, though they've also eschewed the the small, quick DEs often used by college teams in favor of a pair of 250-pounders.

The ever-popular indicator of bad defense, though - safeties making all the tackles - is clear and present in the Golden Flashes' stat listing.  Starting safeties Nate Holley and Jordan Italiano combine for 64 tackles, just over a quarter of the Kent State total.  I don't expect UVA's run game to go wild, because O-line, and I'd be a little disappointed too if Steve Fairchild opened the playbook much farther.  Save something for the ACC games and all that.  But I do think UVA's top three backs will each improve on their season average, and there ought to be a Daniel Hamm sighting as well.

-- UVA pass offense vs. KSU pass defense

Quarterback:
Matt Johns: 34/58, 58.6%; 367 yards, 4 TDs, 2 INTs; 6.33 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Taquan Mizzell: 16 rec., 62 yards, 0 TDs
Canaan Severin: 15 rec., 165 yards, 2 TDs
Miles Gooch: 13 rec., 163 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
234.25 yards/game, 6.01 yards/attempt
106th of 128 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)

KSU defense:
255.7 yards/game, 9.24 yards/attempt
124th of 128 (national), 12th of 13 (MAC)

That was the good part of Kent State's defense, by the way.  If the run defense was overmatched against the Buckeyes, the pass defense was obliterated, with OSU quarterback JT Barrett averaging a first down every time he dropped back to pass.  Ohio's Derrius Vick completed 3/4ths of his passes, averaged even more yards than Barrett did, and didn't throw a pick.

The defensive stats don't look good at all.  Kent State defenders have only broken up five passes, intercepted one, and registered all of two sacks.  The latter is especially low; if anyone gets close to our quarterback on Saturday with any consistency, it'll be cause for major concern.

Who that quarterback is, is still unknown.  Mike London stated that Greyson Lambert wouldn't go unless he was 100%, and if he's 100% on his ankle after just one week that's great news, but that's a tricky thing.  The guess here is that Lambert won't play at all, with Matt Johns getting the start and David Watford first in line for any garbage time.  With Kent State undersized at corner and matching up against UVA's much larger targets, I would think multiple receivers ought to have big days, which in the current setup where everything is spread way around and there's no dominant receiver, is about five catches.

-- KSU run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Nick Holley: 25 carries, 87 yards, 0 TDs
Anthony Meray: 14 carries, 33 yards, 0 TDs

KSU offense:
47.33 yards/game, 1.95 yards/attempt
126th of 128 (national), 13th of 13 (MAC)

UVA defense:
99.75 yards/game, 2.98 yards/attempt
26th of 128 (national), 4th of 14 (ACC)

OK, so part of the problem with Kent State's run game is that they're not real good in pass protection, and have lost 50 yards to sacks.  Add that yardage back in, and they're still 118th in the country at about 2.6 yards a carry.  And this is mostly against bad teams, mind you - OSU shut them down, of course, but so has everyone.  UVA's run game isn't very good, but it does achieve a minimum level of competence.  Kent State's run game is just useless.

Lack of size is again a problem, as KSU's backs are just plain small.  Nick Holley is actually averaging 3.5 yards a carry, but it's boosted by his 20-yard scampers, one each against USA and OSU.  Take them out and he's under two yards.  The next longest run on the team belongs to quarterback Colin Reardon: nine yards.

Against a defense like UVA's, this is all pretty bad news.  This is likely to be UVA's most favorable matchup of the rest of the year.  I'd say our brilliant linebackers, Coley and Romero, are poised for a field day, but if our coaches are smart they'll rotate in guys like Micah Kiser and Zach Bradshaw nice and early.  And the defensive line might hog a bunch of the tackles before the linebackers can even get there.  You can color me surprised if Kent State even manages 50 yards on the ground; if the pass rush is on its game, the total might just be negative.

-- KSU pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Colin Reardon: 61/108, 56.5%; 553 yards, 4 TDs, 4 INTs; 5.12 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Ernest Calhoun: 15 rec., 128 yards, 0 TDs
Casey Pierce: 11 rec., 128 yards, 1 TD
Nick Holley: 11 rec., 74 yards, 1 TD

KSU offense:
185.3 yards/game, 4.83 yards/attempt
125th of 128 (national), 12th of 13 (MAC)

UVA defense:
248.8 yards/game, 6.77 yards/attempt
61st of 128 (national), 8th of 14 (ACC)

For as crummy a run game as he has supporting him, Kent State QB Colin Reardon is putting up a game effort.  Reardon is a reasonably efficient passer, all things considered, and was thrown into the fire last year as a true freshman and responded well.  He can scramble a bit, a useful talent given the protection he doesn't receive, and while he didn't light up the scoreboard against Ohio and USA, his passing wasn't the reason the Flashes lost, either.

That said, Ohio State smothered him, badly.  Kent's O-line couldn't protect him, allowing four sacks, and Reardon threw three picks as well.  UVA's defense is much closer to OSU than to Kent State's other opponents in terms of talent and athleticism, and should be expected to harass him all day.  Kent State favors shorter passes, not unlike UVA - the kind that are more easily batted down at the line.  Max Valles was made to chase down moderately scrambley quarterbacks, as well as knock down passes from ones who are 6'1" like Reardon, and ought to have himself a day.

The thing we'll all have our eyes on, though, is whether Demetrious Nicholson will make his season debut.  He's supposedly close, and this would be a good warm-up, as he'll be needed right away next week in order to help shut down Tyler Boyd of Pittsburgh.  I think Nicholson will play, even if cautiously, and even a rusty Nicholson is still an improvement over Tim Harris right now.

-- Favorability ratings

UVA run offense: 6.5
UVA pass offense: 7
UVA run defense: 9.5
UVA pass defense: 8.5

Average: 7.875

-- Outlook

Pretty darn good.  Saturday should be a fun day on defense.  UVA isn't going to win every matchup on every play on offense, and just isn't explosive enough to curb-stomp the Flashes the way OSU did.  But when KSU gets the ball, they'll simply be severely overmatched and very one-dimensional.  UVA ought to be able to set up tents in the Kent State backfield and maybe roast some marshmallows.  Anything short of a very convincing win would be a disappointment.

-- Predictions

- Demetrious Nicholson plays.

- So does Daniel Hamm.

- Greyson Lambert does not.

- UVA's top three backs - Parks, Mizzell, and Shepherd - each beat their season averages per carry, which right now are 3.1, 3.4, and 4.6.

- Kent State fails to reach 50 yards on the ground, including sacks.

- Max Valles records at least one sack and two batted passes.

Final score: UVA 34, KSU 3

-- Rest of the ACC

Bye: Georgia Tech

Boston College vs. Colorado State, 12:30 - CSU could be dangerous, but expect BC to keep rolling toward a second straight bowl nonetheless.

Virginia Tech vs. Western Michigan, 12:30 - VT just lost home games on back-to-back weekends.  Last time that happened? 1995.

Pittsburgh vs. Akron, 1:30 - The Steel-Belted Radials Bowl.

Wake Forest @ Louisville, 3:30 - Just so you know, E.J. Scott is on pace for a really nice season.

Florida State @ NC State, 3:30 - You get the feeling that FSU is headed for a drop off their #1 perch, and NC State has historically been a very rough patch for them.

North Carolina @ Clemson, 7:00 - Hahahahahaha 70 points.

Duke @ Miami, 7:30 - Actually a pretty big Coastal game.

Syracuse vs. Notre Dame, 8:00 - The historical first of Notre Dame's contracted ACC games.  Face it, Domers - it's basically your first-ever conference game.