To be clear, that's "Cavaliers that are now rookies in the NFL." Yes, once again it's time to see how the NFL draft went from a purely UVA perspective. This is a much shorter exercise than last year, when we had enough matriculation to the NFL that I had to split it up into draftees and non-draftees. This year, not so much. Maybe that has something to do with 3-9.
Anyway, here are the guys you'll be pulling for to make an NFL roster this year:
Chris Cook - 34th overall to the Vikings
The Vikings picked Cook with the selection they got from the Lions for trading out of the first round - really only a four-pick drop. The UVA fan in me is thrilled - Cook is going to a team bound and determined to upgrade a shaky cornerback position. The Lions fan in me is really pleased to finally have what looks like a really dangerous running back (the Lions took Cal's Jahvid Best with the pick acquired from the Vikings.)
But the combination UVA and Lions fan in me thinks the whole thing sucks. As a Lions fan, see, I can't stand the Vikings - maybe not as strongly as a Packers fan would hate them, but still; and I hate to see a Cavalier drafted by them, it's almost as bad as being drafted by Green Bay or Dallas. Not only that, but they used the pick the Lions gave them, and the Lions really, really need a cornerback too. (They picked one up in the third round instead.) And for the coup de grace: drafting Best gave the Lions the RB depth they needed to cut Cedric Peerman loose. So it's like a double no-Hoos whammy for the Lions.
But, Cook. As the Vikings' highest pick, he's something of a mini-star already in the Twin Cities and will no doubt be scrutinized come fall camp. He wasn't the Vikings' first choice, though; that was going to be Patrick Robinson, who got snagged two picks ahead of them. Minnesota needs cornerbacks badly enough that they decided to take the next one on their board instead of going with the best-player-available approach.
The situation there is really shaky. Cedric Griffin is the best they got, and they're not sure he'll be available for the start of the season. Everyone else was horribly unproductive last season, and the Vikings went out and signed a bunch of other guys before the draft (read: flung poo against the wall to find out what sticks) to try and shore up the position and be able to print up a depth chart and still look at themselves in the mirror. With Griffin probably out for training camp, Cook will have every chance to strut his stuff. Except for maybe the Lions, he'd have had a hard time finding a better situation.
Will Barker - Cowboys UFA
Ugh, I hate the Cowboys, but there's no denying former Cavaliers have had their share of success in Dallas. Both John Phillips and Kevin Ogletree caught on with the Cowboys last year, hauling in seven passes each, and they're joined this offseason by Connor Hughes, providing some warm-body depth at placekicker.
Barker ended up on a team that's more or less without a left tackle, but unfortunately I really have my doubts that Barker's suited for the left side. If he's a tackle, he's a right tackle, and Dallas has more depth on that side. Still, they didn't pick up a lineman til the sixth round and haven't been real active on the FA market for linemen either, so Barker's got as good a chance as any to impress his way onto the roster. As ever, UFA's face a long uphill climb to a steady paycheck and the odds are stacked against them, so when I say he's got a decent chance, that's definitely relative.
Nate Collins - Giants UFA
Another place with a nice contingent of Cavaliers; Collins will join Chris Canty and Clint Sintim on the Giants' defense. There isn't much room, though. Canty is an expensive investment that the Giants want to get some use out of after he was hurt much of last year, and so the depth chart at DT will get a little clogged. They drafted another defensive tackle in the second round as well. Overall, the Giants need more production than they've been getting out of the middle of their D-line, but there's enough depth there - especially high-priced depth - that it'll likely take an injury or something else unforeseen for Collins to crack the roster.
Mikell Simpson - Bengals UFA
Simpson's his small size - seriously, he looks like he's going to break every time he's tackled - make it a difficult battle no matter where he goes. Plus, he's not the only UFA RB the Bengals signed, and guess what else: Cincinnati picked up some familiar competition from the Lions. (Peerman, for the slow on the uptake.) The Bengals have no competition for the starting tailback job and some pretty well-established backups - they're basically looking for one last guy to fill out the back end of the roster, and Simpson's going to find it extremely difficult not to be one of the first cuts.
Rashawn Jackson - Panthers UFA
Guh. Carolina has a pair of 1,000-yard rushers in Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams and some backups they really like in Tyrell Sutton and Mike Goodson. If Jackson is going to make the Panthers' roster it'll probably be as a pure fullback, and a backup at that as Tony Fiammetta has been groomed for the starting job. Unlike Simpson, Jackson also has the size to make a mark on special teams, and in order to make the roster, this is where he'll probably have to expend a lot of effort.
Working in his favor, Fox Sports called him the second-best undrafted free agent, and compared him to Jason Snelling, who's done a terrific job carving himself a niche with Atlanta. The comparison is no accident - Jackson has a very similar skill set, looks a lot like Snelling on the field, and minus the medical year off, followed a very similar career path at UVA. Eerie similarities. Let's hope the parallels can continue; if Jackson catches on with Carolina, it'll likely be right from the Snelling blueprint.
Vic Hall - Bears UFA
Hall's pro recruitment probably reminded him a lot of his college recruitment. Defense? Offense? Different teams had different ideas. For the Bears, it'll be offense, at least at first - slot receiver. Right in Devin Hester's wheelhouse. The Bears also have Rashied Davis as a backup there, and if Hall ends up as a slot and KR, those two at least will be in front of him. His versatility makes it tough to figure his chances of making the roster, but it also greatly improves them, and don't be surprised if he does land on his feet somewhere. Might not necessarily be the Bears, and it could be anywhere on the field - kick returner, gunner, cornerback, slot. The practice squad is also a distinct possibility - thanks to his athleticism, probably a greater possibility than any of the other UFA's listed here since he can be asked to portray various opposing burners as a scout teamer. That kind of sucks, but in the end there's a reason Hall was one of Groh's favorites and I can't see him being completely shunted aside when all's said and done.
Showing posts with label simpson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label simpson. Show all posts
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Sunday, October 11, 2009
what the hell?
In retrospect, maybe we should've seen this coming? For the third year in a row now, Al Groh's Hoos have picked a random game that looked just like any other going in - which is to say, trouble - and gone all SUPRISE BUTTSECKS on some hapless opponent. The only difference between Indiana '09 and Maryland '08/Miami '07 is the meaningless touchdown at the end. The shutout would have been nice, but it's the least of anyone's concerns. The point is that random, out-of-nowhere blowouts that make you scratch your head and ask yourself the above question somewhere around "27-0 in the second quarter" have been something of a hallmark of the Groh Decade.
It's so funny how I learn, every year, how quickly the fortunes of our football team can swing, mid-season. You'd think in my 10th year of UVA fanhood I'd have learned this lesson by now, but you'd be wrong; apparently I am not a fast learner. Two weeks into the season - actually one week, really, because eight days is all it takes to end up 0-2 - everything was DOOM. Two weeks after being 0-3 - again, actually just one week - I'm about to open my fat mouth about bowl games again.
Yes, bowl games. Before the Southern Miss game, you may recall I opined that our trip to Hattiesburg was a must-win game, because three out of the next four would keep us in bowl contention but UNC was already penciled in as a loss. One UNC upset and an Indiana-stomp later, here we are with a very good chance to pull off that 3-of-4 trick that looked very possible even at 0-3.
The lesson to be learned from Saturday is merely this: We will have an actual chance in every game left on the schedule - and in several cases much more than just a chance - because the defense is legit. I don't care if it was "just" Indiana or "just" UNC's bland, thoroughly predictable offense. Carolina has many problems but talent is not one of them, as evidenced by their ability to rack up large numbers of points against crappy teams. And Indiana has played Ohio State - one of the top ten defenses in the country - and wouldn't you know it, the defensive statistics match up pretty well. Hell, we're top-20 ourselves, and ninth (ninth!) in the country (the country!) against the pass, with opponents averaging just five yards per attempt. God, if only the offense could follow suit. For one fantastic Saturday afternoon, Indiana found out what happens when they do.
***************************************
It almost makes no sense to analyze the game, because usually that involves "what went right" and "what went wrong." Yesterday it was what went right, what went right-er, and what went more-er right-er.
- The offense was absolutely sparkling. That's the first time we've been able to say anything nice about the offense without adding ten major caveats afterwards. Take away the bad snap over Verica's head (which is a "rushing attempt" only in the most technical sense) and we averaged 5.5 yards per carry. A less statistical way of saying this would be that I thought we'd be able to run pretty much at will against IU, and we did. The offensive line spent all day bulldozing the IU defensive line, and Messrs. Simpson, Jackson, and Mack reaped the rewards.
- Duh. It seems so obvious. Hm, Vic Hall is not outplaying Jameel Sewell at quarterback and our wide receivers aren't outplaying anybody? What to do, what to do. Huh. Hey, let's line Hall up at receiver and throw at him a lot. You'd think this sort of thing would occur to me earlier, but I'm glad it occurred to the coaching staff this week, because Hall's pass-catching was huge. The only other receiver that's shown enough flashes of brilliance to give me hope for the upcoming weeks is Kris Burd, who had just two catches against IU. But they were big ones. In any case, though, I like the idea of Hall at receiver and wholeheartedly endorse it going forward. He's got a little catching up to do but if he stays there the rest of the season, he'll lead the team in receptions.
- Sooner or later someone is going to figure out that they need to watch the running back who we just play-faked to.
- I do not fault Al Groh for having Simpson in the game just long enough to get hurt. I've always felt, if you're blowing someone out, you should keep your foot on the gas pedal until the fourth quarter. Or until you have a triple-digit lead, whichever comes first. And Simpson was not being overworked: 15 carries in 2 and a half quarters works out to 24 in the game, which isn't excessive. He's barely had any work this season. Last week was the first time all year he'd gotten a decent number of carries. After that drive would have been the right time to sit him, but seven minutes left in the third quarter is still too soon.
- I do wonder what the hell we were doing going for two in the 2nd quarter. I dunno, maybe Al wanted to work on something, but not only was that some bizarre timing, it was a whacked-out play that was doomed from the start. It couldn't have been more obvious we were going for two, and that being the case, why send the kicker out there? I don't get it.
- Two weeks in a row now the tackling has been impeccable. Big reason why our pass defense is so good. Enemy receivers are getting no yards after contact at all. That's how you turn third-and-four into fourth-and-one instead of first-and-ten.
So about that bowl thing. It's back on the radar, but it's still a long uphill climb. Of the opponents left on our schedule, three are ranked and four are not; getting to a bowl requires beating all those unranked teams and/or scoring a major upset. No slip-ups allowed. The good news is, does the ACC really scare you very much? Only two teams in the conference remain undefeated in ACC play, and one of 'em lost to William & Mary. Yay crappy conference. One week at a time, and if all goes well we too can aspire to play in a bowl game in Mobile, against a third-tier MAC team, sponsored by a bailed-out bank. Sounds like fun.
It's so funny how I learn, every year, how quickly the fortunes of our football team can swing, mid-season. You'd think in my 10th year of UVA fanhood I'd have learned this lesson by now, but you'd be wrong; apparently I am not a fast learner. Two weeks into the season - actually one week, really, because eight days is all it takes to end up 0-2 - everything was DOOM. Two weeks after being 0-3 - again, actually just one week - I'm about to open my fat mouth about bowl games again.
Yes, bowl games. Before the Southern Miss game, you may recall I opined that our trip to Hattiesburg was a must-win game, because three out of the next four would keep us in bowl contention but UNC was already penciled in as a loss. One UNC upset and an Indiana-stomp later, here we are with a very good chance to pull off that 3-of-4 trick that looked very possible even at 0-3.
The lesson to be learned from Saturday is merely this: We will have an actual chance in every game left on the schedule - and in several cases much more than just a chance - because the defense is legit. I don't care if it was "just" Indiana or "just" UNC's bland, thoroughly predictable offense. Carolina has many problems but talent is not one of them, as evidenced by their ability to rack up large numbers of points against crappy teams. And Indiana has played Ohio State - one of the top ten defenses in the country - and wouldn't you know it, the defensive statistics match up pretty well. Hell, we're top-20 ourselves, and ninth (ninth!) in the country (the country!) against the pass, with opponents averaging just five yards per attempt. God, if only the offense could follow suit. For one fantastic Saturday afternoon, Indiana found out what happens when they do.
***************************************
It almost makes no sense to analyze the game, because usually that involves "what went right" and "what went wrong." Yesterday it was what went right, what went right-er, and what went more-er right-er.
- The offense was absolutely sparkling. That's the first time we've been able to say anything nice about the offense without adding ten major caveats afterwards. Take away the bad snap over Verica's head (which is a "rushing attempt" only in the most technical sense) and we averaged 5.5 yards per carry. A less statistical way of saying this would be that I thought we'd be able to run pretty much at will against IU, and we did. The offensive line spent all day bulldozing the IU defensive line, and Messrs. Simpson, Jackson, and Mack reaped the rewards.
- Duh. It seems so obvious. Hm, Vic Hall is not outplaying Jameel Sewell at quarterback and our wide receivers aren't outplaying anybody? What to do, what to do. Huh. Hey, let's line Hall up at receiver and throw at him a lot. You'd think this sort of thing would occur to me earlier, but I'm glad it occurred to the coaching staff this week, because Hall's pass-catching was huge. The only other receiver that's shown enough flashes of brilliance to give me hope for the upcoming weeks is Kris Burd, who had just two catches against IU. But they were big ones. In any case, though, I like the idea of Hall at receiver and wholeheartedly endorse it going forward. He's got a little catching up to do but if he stays there the rest of the season, he'll lead the team in receptions.
- Sooner or later someone is going to figure out that they need to watch the running back who we just play-faked to.
- I do not fault Al Groh for having Simpson in the game just long enough to get hurt. I've always felt, if you're blowing someone out, you should keep your foot on the gas pedal until the fourth quarter. Or until you have a triple-digit lead, whichever comes first. And Simpson was not being overworked: 15 carries in 2 and a half quarters works out to 24 in the game, which isn't excessive. He's barely had any work this season. Last week was the first time all year he'd gotten a decent number of carries. After that drive would have been the right time to sit him, but seven minutes left in the third quarter is still too soon.
- I do wonder what the hell we were doing going for two in the 2nd quarter. I dunno, maybe Al wanted to work on something, but not only was that some bizarre timing, it was a whacked-out play that was doomed from the start. It couldn't have been more obvious we were going for two, and that being the case, why send the kicker out there? I don't get it.
- Two weeks in a row now the tackling has been impeccable. Big reason why our pass defense is so good. Enemy receivers are getting no yards after contact at all. That's how you turn third-and-four into fourth-and-one instead of first-and-ten.
So about that bowl thing. It's back on the radar, but it's still a long uphill climb. Of the opponents left on our schedule, three are ranked and four are not; getting to a bowl requires beating all those unranked teams and/or scoring a major upset. No slip-ups allowed. The good news is, does the ACC really scare you very much? Only two teams in the conference remain undefeated in ACC play, and one of 'em lost to William & Mary. Yay crappy conference. One week at a time, and if all goes well we too can aspire to play in a bowl game in Mobile, against a third-tier MAC team, sponsored by a bailed-out bank. Sounds like fun.
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
season preview: the offense
Oy. I don't know what makes me think I can go on a booze cruise all afternoon and come home in any shape to write a post. Yesterday I fully intended to come home and worst case scenario maybe stay up a little bit late putting this up, and then sat down and realized just how successful those efforts were likely to be. So that didn't happen.
That means both the offense and the defense are both getting crammed into a real short time frame. One big happy mess. Two separate posts, though, we gotta keep some kind of law and order around here or nothing'll ever get done. Like it does anyway.
Let's jump right in to the offense. For position-by-position stuff, just read my Examiner work. No sense duplicating that. It's all linked right there on the side for easy clicking. Instead, we'll go with question-and-answer. There's no shortage of the former and precious few of the latter.
1. Who's going to play quarterback?
OK, I lied. We will break down this one position. Might as well. Everyone always treats this as some earthshattering new piece of drama. Really, it's not. In this decade alone we've asked this question in, let's see, 2001, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009. Birds fly, fish swim, dogs bark, and UVA fans wonder who's going to play quarterback. A lot of this is because Groh likes to play keep-away from the media about stuff like this, and further he's never bought into the notion that you have to have one and only one for stability's sake. Once upon a time I remember Groh musing about the position and opining that it shouldn't be that much different from any other position on the field where you rotate people in and out all the time.
That said, though, it's pretty rare that you rotate three players in and out at quarterback. This is almost never done. Groh seems determined to try, but I'm willing to put down a lot of money that when all's said and done, the snaps won't be split three ways evenly. Someone's eventually going to slide out of the rotation for consistency's sake, and my money's on that being Verica.
Why? Well, let's start off by being honest with ourselves about one thing. Vic Hall's the most athletic and electric of the three, there's no doubt about that. So if he was throwing even equally as well as the other two, there'd be no question at all. It's my opinion Hall is the worst passer of the three, and that's not borne out of observation, that's out of the fact that he hasn't put that separation between himself and the other two, despite having an obvious advantage in the athleticism department. It's logic.
So either Sewell or Verica will be passing the ball a lot this year. I think it'll be Sewell because while Verica has the strongest and often most accurate arm, Verica isn't well suited to run Hall's plays. Sewell is. You take Hall out and put Verica in, and teams already know you're going to pass the ball. Tech had that figured out last year. You take Hall out and put Sewell in, and you don't tip your hand as much. Hall, of course, will attempt more passes per game than the measly one that he threw against Tech. Also, Verica won't be completely shut out of the offense, but I think barring an injury, he'll only make appearances toward the beginning and end of the season, and not as much in the middle. Still, I think the baseline assumption should be that Hall is the nominal "starter", and Sewell will trot in for a few series each game and whenever the coaches want to do something fancy like put them both in the backfield. And don't be surprised to see Hall making cameos at weird places like slot receiver.
2. So what kind of a spread offense are we getting, anyway? Running spread? Passing spread?
Calling someone a spread coordinator is like calling someone European: there is a certain meaning to that, but nobody would suggest a Swede is terribly similar to an Italian. We got a spread guru for a coordinator now, so it's fair to wonder what that means. Are we going to turn into Texas Tech?
Gregg Brandon isn't really married to the idea of running more or passing more. He's proven adept at adjusting his playbook and playcalling to his personnel. In 2006, Bowling Green had a running quarterback and ran the ball a lot more than they passed. The next year, that guy got moved to running back and a big galoot of a pocket passer took over the show, and they passed more.
Brandon does like to pass, his philosophy being that you can't be a great offense unless you can throw the football. In the same link there, you can see why I like Sewell's chances of getting on the field more than Verica's: Brandon likes short and quick throws, which is exactly what Sewell was asked to do in 2007. An old article points out that Bowling Green at one time lined up with five wide receivers once every three plays. I don't think we'll see that quite as much, but we will see it, which is why running backs and quarterbacks have suddenly found themselves turned into receivers. Five receivers is a brand-new concept to an Al Groh-coached team. Another brand-new concept: the option. This just hasn't been in the playbook, but Brandon will be bringing it back, and it's why I like the odds of seeing Vic Hall out in the slot. One of Brandon's staples has been to add to the usual option concept the possibility of a shovel to the slot receiver inside. Sewell lines up in the shotgun with Mikell Simpson behind him to his right and Vic Hall in the slot to his left; all three run to the right and Sewell has three options: shovel, keep, or pitch.
The answer, if you care to pigeonhole it, is that we'll probably lean more towards passing than running. And when we do run, don't expect a steady dose of the traditional handoffs and power sweeps. For one thing, the quarterback will operate out of the shotgun, so plays that count as run plays will be a lot of quarterback keepers, options, draw plays, and the like. The days of a quarterback taking the snap from under center and handing the ball off to a running back who follows a fullback and a pulling guard are in the past. But at the same time, passes will operate much like running plays: option shovels, screens, quick slants to a slot who's got a linebacker trying to cover him.
3. Do we have the personnel to run this thing?
Absolutely. About the only issue as far as that's concerned is the offensive line. I frankly do worry about this: Al Groh has always wanted his offensive linemen to be absolutely huge. The bigger the better. And so they are: we have three 300-pounders on the line. Can they move around in space? Are they well-conditioned enough? Legitimate questions, but remember: we've always required our guards to pull around and block the other side. A lot. That requires some hustle and athleticism, and they're pretty good at it. Both B.J. Cabbell and Austin Pasztor are over 300 pounds, but I don't worry about their ability to get around and move. A bigger adjustment will be pass-blocking out of larger splits. The larger line splits spread out the defense and allow more room to run in, but they also make it more imperative that each lineman win his individual battle when pass-blocking.
As for the rest of the offense, it's not even a question. The running backs are just the guys we want. So are the quarterbacks. So are the receivers. We can put to rest any fears that we'll have to undergo a Michigan-like transformation in which we have to endure a season of mismatched pieces running a foreign system while we wait for the "right" players to be recruited. We have them now.
4. Biggest strengths? Biggest concerns?
The biggest strength is that we simply have a guy in charge who knows offense. Can you really spell out our offensive philosophy under Mike Groh without resorting to sarcasm? There was just no theme. It wasn't an offense, it was just a collection of plays. It was exactly the sort of offense you'd expect from a guy who'd become an offensive coordinator without much of an apprenticeship.
Now we have an actual system. The plays are designed to complement one another. There's a theme, a rhyme and reason behind things. That alone is worth a lot.
The offensive line improved mightily last year from beginning to end and that is a fantastic sign for this year. Never ever ever ever ever underestimate the value of a veteran line that's played together. This is the biggest and best thing we have going for us on the field. There's a lot to be excited about: there's incredible speed at wide receiver, there's a scary-good playmaker at quarterback, and there's plenty of new blood (Torrey Mack, Tim Smith) with sky's-the-limit talent. That's all well and good but none of it goes anywhere without an offensive line, and I really, really like what I see there.
It's easy to look at last year's stat sheet, realize most of the guys at the top are gone, and write off UVA. It's a favorite tactic of sportswriters to pick teams based on how many returning skill players they have, and of course it worked spectacularly last year when everyone was lining up to anoint Clemson as King of Everything. Sure - all the major passcatchers are gone. The top five, actually, which accounted for 80% of our receptions. Inexperience at receiver and lack of depth at running back are what I'd label the two major concerns, and both can be overcome. Get excited about the offense this year.
5. OK, I am excited. So what are the predictions?
- You'll see a huge uptick in yards-per-attempt in the passing game. 5.6 is just horrendous. If we could have added just one yard to that last year, we'd still be very mediocre in that category (ranked in the 70s instead of the 100s) and it would have been good for an extra 37 yards a game. The difference between the horrible offense we had and a mediocre offense is the difference between 5-7 and 7-5.
- Nobody will emerge as a McMullen-like go-to guy at receiver, but it won't matter because enough of those guys will be good to keep the ball spread around and the offense effective. There's too much youth in the receiver corps for any one of them to play consistently well enough to rack up huge numbers, but there's enough depth that, much more often than not, someone will emerge to have a big day.
- I hope Mikell Simpson stays healthy, but if he doesn't, Torrey Mack will make a huge push for ACC Freshman of the Year, and the number of "Mack Truck" references by oh-so-clever color announcers and message board inhabitants will reach triple digits and threaten quadruples.
- I hope Landon Bradley stays healthy, and I believe he'll play very well, but if he gets hurt, Oday Aboushi will Wally Pipp him out of a job.
- Vic Hall will end up taking the majority of snaps at quarterback, followed by Jameel Sewell, followed by Marc Verica. Verica will make some appearances early in the season but be slowly phased out of the picture by October, only to return in late November. This is all assuming good health.
- The offensive improvement will be enough to put us back in the postseason. I still think 7-5 and a bowl game is a more-than-realistic expectation.
That means both the offense and the defense are both getting crammed into a real short time frame. One big happy mess. Two separate posts, though, we gotta keep some kind of law and order around here or nothing'll ever get done. Like it does anyway.
Let's jump right in to the offense. For position-by-position stuff, just read my Examiner work. No sense duplicating that. It's all linked right there on the side for easy clicking. Instead, we'll go with question-and-answer. There's no shortage of the former and precious few of the latter.
1. Who's going to play quarterback?
OK, I lied. We will break down this one position. Might as well. Everyone always treats this as some earthshattering new piece of drama. Really, it's not. In this decade alone we've asked this question in, let's see, 2001, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009. Birds fly, fish swim, dogs bark, and UVA fans wonder who's going to play quarterback. A lot of this is because Groh likes to play keep-away from the media about stuff like this, and further he's never bought into the notion that you have to have one and only one for stability's sake. Once upon a time I remember Groh musing about the position and opining that it shouldn't be that much different from any other position on the field where you rotate people in and out all the time.
That said, though, it's pretty rare that you rotate three players in and out at quarterback. This is almost never done. Groh seems determined to try, but I'm willing to put down a lot of money that when all's said and done, the snaps won't be split three ways evenly. Someone's eventually going to slide out of the rotation for consistency's sake, and my money's on that being Verica.
Why? Well, let's start off by being honest with ourselves about one thing. Vic Hall's the most athletic and electric of the three, there's no doubt about that. So if he was throwing even equally as well as the other two, there'd be no question at all. It's my opinion Hall is the worst passer of the three, and that's not borne out of observation, that's out of the fact that he hasn't put that separation between himself and the other two, despite having an obvious advantage in the athleticism department. It's logic.
So either Sewell or Verica will be passing the ball a lot this year. I think it'll be Sewell because while Verica has the strongest and often most accurate arm, Verica isn't well suited to run Hall's plays. Sewell is. You take Hall out and put Verica in, and teams already know you're going to pass the ball. Tech had that figured out last year. You take Hall out and put Sewell in, and you don't tip your hand as much. Hall, of course, will attempt more passes per game than the measly one that he threw against Tech. Also, Verica won't be completely shut out of the offense, but I think barring an injury, he'll only make appearances toward the beginning and end of the season, and not as much in the middle. Still, I think the baseline assumption should be that Hall is the nominal "starter", and Sewell will trot in for a few series each game and whenever the coaches want to do something fancy like put them both in the backfield. And don't be surprised to see Hall making cameos at weird places like slot receiver.
2. So what kind of a spread offense are we getting, anyway? Running spread? Passing spread?
Calling someone a spread coordinator is like calling someone European: there is a certain meaning to that, but nobody would suggest a Swede is terribly similar to an Italian. We got a spread guru for a coordinator now, so it's fair to wonder what that means. Are we going to turn into Texas Tech?
Gregg Brandon isn't really married to the idea of running more or passing more. He's proven adept at adjusting his playbook and playcalling to his personnel. In 2006, Bowling Green had a running quarterback and ran the ball a lot more than they passed. The next year, that guy got moved to running back and a big galoot of a pocket passer took over the show, and they passed more.
Brandon does like to pass, his philosophy being that you can't be a great offense unless you can throw the football. In the same link there, you can see why I like Sewell's chances of getting on the field more than Verica's: Brandon likes short and quick throws, which is exactly what Sewell was asked to do in 2007. An old article points out that Bowling Green at one time lined up with five wide receivers once every three plays. I don't think we'll see that quite as much, but we will see it, which is why running backs and quarterbacks have suddenly found themselves turned into receivers. Five receivers is a brand-new concept to an Al Groh-coached team. Another brand-new concept: the option. This just hasn't been in the playbook, but Brandon will be bringing it back, and it's why I like the odds of seeing Vic Hall out in the slot. One of Brandon's staples has been to add to the usual option concept the possibility of a shovel to the slot receiver inside. Sewell lines up in the shotgun with Mikell Simpson behind him to his right and Vic Hall in the slot to his left; all three run to the right and Sewell has three options: shovel, keep, or pitch.
The answer, if you care to pigeonhole it, is that we'll probably lean more towards passing than running. And when we do run, don't expect a steady dose of the traditional handoffs and power sweeps. For one thing, the quarterback will operate out of the shotgun, so plays that count as run plays will be a lot of quarterback keepers, options, draw plays, and the like. The days of a quarterback taking the snap from under center and handing the ball off to a running back who follows a fullback and a pulling guard are in the past. But at the same time, passes will operate much like running plays: option shovels, screens, quick slants to a slot who's got a linebacker trying to cover him.
3. Do we have the personnel to run this thing?
Absolutely. About the only issue as far as that's concerned is the offensive line. I frankly do worry about this: Al Groh has always wanted his offensive linemen to be absolutely huge. The bigger the better. And so they are: we have three 300-pounders on the line. Can they move around in space? Are they well-conditioned enough? Legitimate questions, but remember: we've always required our guards to pull around and block the other side. A lot. That requires some hustle and athleticism, and they're pretty good at it. Both B.J. Cabbell and Austin Pasztor are over 300 pounds, but I don't worry about their ability to get around and move. A bigger adjustment will be pass-blocking out of larger splits. The larger line splits spread out the defense and allow more room to run in, but they also make it more imperative that each lineman win his individual battle when pass-blocking.
As for the rest of the offense, it's not even a question. The running backs are just the guys we want. So are the quarterbacks. So are the receivers. We can put to rest any fears that we'll have to undergo a Michigan-like transformation in which we have to endure a season of mismatched pieces running a foreign system while we wait for the "right" players to be recruited. We have them now.
4. Biggest strengths? Biggest concerns?
The biggest strength is that we simply have a guy in charge who knows offense. Can you really spell out our offensive philosophy under Mike Groh without resorting to sarcasm? There was just no theme. It wasn't an offense, it was just a collection of plays. It was exactly the sort of offense you'd expect from a guy who'd become an offensive coordinator without much of an apprenticeship.
Now we have an actual system. The plays are designed to complement one another. There's a theme, a rhyme and reason behind things. That alone is worth a lot.
The offensive line improved mightily last year from beginning to end and that is a fantastic sign for this year. Never ever ever ever ever underestimate the value of a veteran line that's played together. This is the biggest and best thing we have going for us on the field. There's a lot to be excited about: there's incredible speed at wide receiver, there's a scary-good playmaker at quarterback, and there's plenty of new blood (Torrey Mack, Tim Smith) with sky's-the-limit talent. That's all well and good but none of it goes anywhere without an offensive line, and I really, really like what I see there.
It's easy to look at last year's stat sheet, realize most of the guys at the top are gone, and write off UVA. It's a favorite tactic of sportswriters to pick teams based on how many returning skill players they have, and of course it worked spectacularly last year when everyone was lining up to anoint Clemson as King of Everything. Sure - all the major passcatchers are gone. The top five, actually, which accounted for 80% of our receptions. Inexperience at receiver and lack of depth at running back are what I'd label the two major concerns, and both can be overcome. Get excited about the offense this year.
5. OK, I am excited. So what are the predictions?
- You'll see a huge uptick in yards-per-attempt in the passing game. 5.6 is just horrendous. If we could have added just one yard to that last year, we'd still be very mediocre in that category (ranked in the 70s instead of the 100s) and it would have been good for an extra 37 yards a game. The difference between the horrible offense we had and a mediocre offense is the difference between 5-7 and 7-5.
- Nobody will emerge as a McMullen-like go-to guy at receiver, but it won't matter because enough of those guys will be good to keep the ball spread around and the offense effective. There's too much youth in the receiver corps for any one of them to play consistently well enough to rack up huge numbers, but there's enough depth that, much more often than not, someone will emerge to have a big day.
- I hope Mikell Simpson stays healthy, but if he doesn't, Torrey Mack will make a huge push for ACC Freshman of the Year, and the number of "Mack Truck" references by oh-so-clever color announcers and message board inhabitants will reach triple digits and threaten quadruples.
- I hope Landon Bradley stays healthy, and I believe he'll play very well, but if he gets hurt, Oday Aboushi will Wally Pipp him out of a job.
- Vic Hall will end up taking the majority of snaps at quarterback, followed by Jameel Sewell, followed by Marc Verica. Verica will make some appearances early in the season but be slowly phased out of the picture by October, only to return in late November. This is all assuming good health.
- The offensive improvement will be enough to put us back in the postseason. I still think 7-5 and a bowl game is a more-than-realistic expectation.
Monday, August 17, 2009
preseason ACC Roundtable
As I mentioned earlier, the ACC Roundtable is back for its second season. Well, first-and-a-half. It's bigger-better-faster-more, with new blogs, an earlier start, and a general overall increased level of awesomeinity. The first one is hosted by TFSU blog Tomahawk Nation - they haven't posted the questions yet, but they have in fact asked them, so there they are below along with a set of my very own UVA-specific answers. Look for the roundup soon. Possibly as soon as tomorrow.
1. Will your team be better than last year, why or why not? Will it show in the record, why or why not?
I think I will be surprised if the answers to these questions aren't a unanimous yes, except for maybe from the reigning ACC champs. It's that time of year. Yes, we will be better, and it has everything to do with the offensive side of the ball. We have a new coordinator who is almost guaranteed to be an improvement because the old one couldn't have been much worse. We have two (semi-)new quarterbacks, practically a whole new set of receivers, a new playbook with a new system, and hopefully a new and improved Mikell Simpson to carry the ball.
But what's new isn't half of why I'm looking forward to seeing the offense. It has more to do with what's older, and more experienced: the offensive line. A new and inexperienced line is a surefire formula for underachieving; ours spent nearly all of last season learning to play together and gelling as a unit, and four of five starters return. There's the right mix of new blood and experience on this offense to really open some eyes this year.
2. The ACC has been racked hard by injuries in the off-season, which guys did your team lose and how will you replace them if you can? On the flip side, who are the newcomers expected to step up, if any? Also include academic casualties.
Oh God - this question is here just for the sake of jinxing things, I just know it. Hopefully the football gods are not listening right at this moment, but Virginia hasn't had any significant, season-ending health issues - yet. Transfers and academic losses include defensive ends Andrew Devlin (formerly a tight end) and Kevin Crawford, tight end Rod Wheeler, and safety Rico Bell. There's also two freshman offensive linemen who didn't make it to the fall: Cody Wallace and Morgan Moses.
None were expected to start this year, and several of those wouldn't even have been on the two-deep. The depth at defensive end took a major hit though, and there will be some true freshmen who have to step up. Will Hill, our lone early enrollee, will be one, and there will probably be others. Most of the above losses are losses for good - these aren't like Jameel Sewell who had to spend a year getting eligible. The exceptions are Wallace and Moses, the freshmen. Wallace is probably a longshot at best to return, but Moses will begin his prep school career shortly and Virginia fans will be following it closely because Moses is three-hundred-thirty-twelve pounds of major-league talent.
As far as newcomers go, as with any team there will be plenty of former backups moving into a starting role. But there are three freshmen expected to make a major impact. WR Tim Smith is a tremendous talent as well as a true freshman and will be on the field from Day 1. In the backfield, redshirt frosh Torrey Mack is expected to share the load at running back, and classmate Steve Greer is a projected starter at inside linebacker. If you had to name three UVA freshmen to watch out for, it's far and away those three.
3. Which existing player (or group of players) must step their game up in order for your team to over-achieve?
I'll take this to mean, which player was a regular last year and needs to improve his game? Imaginary players are well-known to be fatal to coaching careers, and anyway we have basically an entire linebacking corps that is new to the starting gig. But new starters always need to step it up. Two players come to mind. On defense, there's DE Matt Conrath. He showed a lot of promise last year as a freshman and played very well as freshmen go. But the brand-new linebacking corps needs help from both front and back if they're going to be successful. With Clint Sintim gone, we need a pass rush threat, and Conrath is the guy everyone's looking at to consistently provide it. The defensive line needs to be huge to take pressure off the linebackers, and it starts with Conrath.
On offense, Mikell Simpson had a terrific 2007 - just ask Maryland. But he was having a really awful 2008 until it was cut short by a broken collarbone. He's now in an offense tailor-made to his talents. He's always been at his best in space, and excels when he's the target of screen passes and such. The offense will get him the ball with room to run - he must take advantage.
1. Will your team be better than last year, why or why not? Will it show in the record, why or why not?
I think I will be surprised if the answers to these questions aren't a unanimous yes, except for maybe from the reigning ACC champs. It's that time of year. Yes, we will be better, and it has everything to do with the offensive side of the ball. We have a new coordinator who is almost guaranteed to be an improvement because the old one couldn't have been much worse. We have two (semi-)new quarterbacks, practically a whole new set of receivers, a new playbook with a new system, and hopefully a new and improved Mikell Simpson to carry the ball.
But what's new isn't half of why I'm looking forward to seeing the offense. It has more to do with what's older, and more experienced: the offensive line. A new and inexperienced line is a surefire formula for underachieving; ours spent nearly all of last season learning to play together and gelling as a unit, and four of five starters return. There's the right mix of new blood and experience on this offense to really open some eyes this year.
2. The ACC has been racked hard by injuries in the off-season, which guys did your team lose and how will you replace them if you can? On the flip side, who are the newcomers expected to step up, if any? Also include academic casualties.
Oh God - this question is here just for the sake of jinxing things, I just know it. Hopefully the football gods are not listening right at this moment, but Virginia hasn't had any significant, season-ending health issues - yet. Transfers and academic losses include defensive ends Andrew Devlin (formerly a tight end) and Kevin Crawford, tight end Rod Wheeler, and safety Rico Bell. There's also two freshman offensive linemen who didn't make it to the fall: Cody Wallace and Morgan Moses.
None were expected to start this year, and several of those wouldn't even have been on the two-deep. The depth at defensive end took a major hit though, and there will be some true freshmen who have to step up. Will Hill, our lone early enrollee, will be one, and there will probably be others. Most of the above losses are losses for good - these aren't like Jameel Sewell who had to spend a year getting eligible. The exceptions are Wallace and Moses, the freshmen. Wallace is probably a longshot at best to return, but Moses will begin his prep school career shortly and Virginia fans will be following it closely because Moses is three-hundred-thirty-twelve pounds of major-league talent.
As far as newcomers go, as with any team there will be plenty of former backups moving into a starting role. But there are three freshmen expected to make a major impact. WR Tim Smith is a tremendous talent as well as a true freshman and will be on the field from Day 1. In the backfield, redshirt frosh Torrey Mack is expected to share the load at running back, and classmate Steve Greer is a projected starter at inside linebacker. If you had to name three UVA freshmen to watch out for, it's far and away those three.
3. Which existing player (or group of players) must step their game up in order for your team to over-achieve?
I'll take this to mean, which player was a regular last year and needs to improve his game? Imaginary players are well-known to be fatal to coaching careers, and anyway we have basically an entire linebacking corps that is new to the starting gig. But new starters always need to step it up. Two players come to mind. On defense, there's DE Matt Conrath. He showed a lot of promise last year as a freshman and played very well as freshmen go. But the brand-new linebacking corps needs help from both front and back if they're going to be successful. With Clint Sintim gone, we need a pass rush threat, and Conrath is the guy everyone's looking at to consistently provide it. The defensive line needs to be huge to take pressure off the linebackers, and it starts with Conrath.
On offense, Mikell Simpson had a terrific 2007 - just ask Maryland. But he was having a really awful 2008 until it was cut short by a broken collarbone. He's now in an offense tailor-made to his talents. He's always been at his best in space, and excels when he's the target of screen passes and such. The offense will get him the ball with room to run - he must take advantage.
Monday, November 3, 2008
weekend review
Further thoughts from Saturday's game follow. I was still so pissed on Sunday evening about that 3rd-and-2 rollout that I forgot to write down quite a few of my other thoughts about the game.
- What sacrifice would the football gods require of us in order for them to confuddle Randy Shannon into continuing to believe that Robert Marve is the better Miami quarterback? Before the game I felt that Jacory Harris's stats showed that he was playing better all around - now that I've seen them both for a full game, I believe it. Miami can be beat at least once the rest of the year, but that'll be harder if Harris is the quarterback.
- Marc Verica: Looked decent, but definitely not the Verica we saw against UNC and GT. Part of this was because Mikey kept having him wing it downfield at obviously blanketed receivers, but he missed a couple throws that he made earlier. Still, Verica's one game shy of tying a Matt Schaub record. We got a keeper in Verica. Big time. (Oh yeah....and see? Doug Doughty agrees that the 3rd-and-2 sack was pretty much the turning point in the game.)
- Cornerback play was also pretty ugly for the most part. Harris had some open receivers to hit on the sidelines. Miami picked up just tons of yardage in 12 and 15 yard chunks like that.
- I take some hope from this: The media coverage today, and the team attitude, and their quotes to the media, and all that, all seem to imply one thing. We lost a game against a team we should have beaten. Nobody's saying it because that would be bulletin board material and we can't have that, but this isn't the same we-just-got-our-asses-kicked-by-a-way-better-team vibe that we saw after the first three losses, and I like that. It's the kind of thing you can turn into positive energy for next week. Mark my words: Wake Forest is beatable, and Winston-Salem is no Tallahassee. A win next week, especially if coupled with a VT loss in Thursday's Meteor Game, would give us just a ton of positive momentum going into the bye, and two weeks to prep for Clemson and VT.
In the newsroom, it looks like Mikell Simpson is done for the year. Eeeeessshh. This should come as no surprise to anyone who saw Simpson trussed up in that shoulder contraption on screen during the game. Next Man Up is Raynard Horne, who's been having a very good year on special teams.
The Wake game will be at 3:30 and on ESPNUVA.
Recruiting board, updated, is here. Recruiting update goes thusly:
- Removed QB Tajh Boyd (Tennessee commit) and CB Travis Hawkins (Maryland commit). These guys were always long longshots anyway.
- Bumped RB De'Antwan Williams from Fair to Low after he listed four favorites which weren't us. ($) He stays because it's a "favorite" four, not a "final" four, but anyone highlighted in red on that list is someone you shouldn't really expect to see in orange and blue.
- Logan Thomas trimmed his list ($) and we're on it, yay.
High schools....
DOMINIQUE WALLACE: 27 carries, 139 yards and 2 TDs in 21-17 win over James Monroe. Dude's a hoss. Here's an article that basically says Dominique Wallace is totally sweet at football and it's helped turn Chancellor into a totally sweet football team.
THE OSCAR SMITH BOYS: Another Friday, another 40+ point win over another hapless opponent. Smith beat Lakeland 44-0; Perry Jones scored twice and Tim Smith once.
TUCKER WINDLE: 6 receptions for 89 yards and a TD on offense, and on defense, 7 tackles including one TFL as Charlotte Catholic stomped West Mecklenburg 42-14.
ALEX OWAH: 25 carries for 164 yards and 2 TDs; Harrisonburg beats Waynesboro 28-6.
Last feature of the weekend review: the trip around the ACC. Let's see what these other cats have to say about their own teams' performances.
Georgia Tech knocked off Florida State, 31-28. FSU is no longer the hegemonic powerhouse they were, but thanks to that really annoying decade or so in which they were the automatic loss on the schedule, it is always special fun beating them. The LegacyX4 agrees.
Wake over Duke in OT, 33-30. Dudespin, while disappointed, reminds you that Duke needs to go 2-2 to go to a bowl, and seems pretty happy to be able to say that.
Clemson beat BC, 27-21. Eagle in Atlanta grades harshly. And, dude, Dabo Swinney is totally flipping off Willy Korn. OK, probably not actually, but that's a damn funny picture anyway.
- What sacrifice would the football gods require of us in order for them to confuddle Randy Shannon into continuing to believe that Robert Marve is the better Miami quarterback? Before the game I felt that Jacory Harris's stats showed that he was playing better all around - now that I've seen them both for a full game, I believe it. Miami can be beat at least once the rest of the year, but that'll be harder if Harris is the quarterback.
- Marc Verica: Looked decent, but definitely not the Verica we saw against UNC and GT. Part of this was because Mikey kept having him wing it downfield at obviously blanketed receivers, but he missed a couple throws that he made earlier. Still, Verica's one game shy of tying a Matt Schaub record. We got a keeper in Verica. Big time. (Oh yeah....and see? Doug Doughty agrees that the 3rd-and-2 sack was pretty much the turning point in the game.)
- Cornerback play was also pretty ugly for the most part. Harris had some open receivers to hit on the sidelines. Miami picked up just tons of yardage in 12 and 15 yard chunks like that.
- I take some hope from this: The media coverage today, and the team attitude, and their quotes to the media, and all that, all seem to imply one thing. We lost a game against a team we should have beaten. Nobody's saying it because that would be bulletin board material and we can't have that, but this isn't the same we-just-got-our-asses-kicked-by-a-way-better-team vibe that we saw after the first three losses, and I like that. It's the kind of thing you can turn into positive energy for next week. Mark my words: Wake Forest is beatable, and Winston-Salem is no Tallahassee. A win next week, especially if coupled with a VT loss in Thursday's Meteor Game, would give us just a ton of positive momentum going into the bye, and two weeks to prep for Clemson and VT.
In the newsroom, it looks like Mikell Simpson is done for the year. Eeeeessshh. This should come as no surprise to anyone who saw Simpson trussed up in that shoulder contraption on screen during the game. Next Man Up is Raynard Horne, who's been having a very good year on special teams.
The Wake game will be at 3:30 and on ESPNUVA.
Recruiting board, updated, is here. Recruiting update goes thusly:
- Removed QB Tajh Boyd (Tennessee commit) and CB Travis Hawkins (Maryland commit). These guys were always long longshots anyway.
- Bumped RB De'Antwan Williams from Fair to Low after he listed four favorites which weren't us. ($) He stays because it's a "favorite" four, not a "final" four, but anyone highlighted in red on that list is someone you shouldn't really expect to see in orange and blue.
- Logan Thomas trimmed his list ($) and we're on it, yay.
High schools....
DOMINIQUE WALLACE: 27 carries, 139 yards and 2 TDs in 21-17 win over James Monroe. Dude's a hoss. Here's an article that basically says Dominique Wallace is totally sweet at football and it's helped turn Chancellor into a totally sweet football team.
THE OSCAR SMITH BOYS: Another Friday, another 40+ point win over another hapless opponent. Smith beat Lakeland 44-0; Perry Jones scored twice and Tim Smith once.
TUCKER WINDLE: 6 receptions for 89 yards and a TD on offense, and on defense, 7 tackles including one TFL as Charlotte Catholic stomped West Mecklenburg 42-14.
ALEX OWAH: 25 carries for 164 yards and 2 TDs; Harrisonburg beats Waynesboro 28-6.
Last feature of the weekend review: the trip around the ACC. Let's see what these other cats have to say about their own teams' performances.
Georgia Tech knocked off Florida State, 31-28. FSU is no longer the hegemonic powerhouse they were, but thanks to that really annoying decade or so in which they were the automatic loss on the schedule, it is always special fun beating them. The LegacyX4 agrees.
Wake over Duke in OT, 33-30. Dudespin, while disappointed, reminds you that Duke needs to go 2-2 to go to a bowl, and seems pretty happy to be able to say that.
Clemson beat BC, 27-21. Eagle in Atlanta grades harshly. And, dude, Dabo Swinney is totally flipping off Willy Korn. OK, probably not actually, but that's a damn funny picture anyway.
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
season preview: offense
As promised. The first of two. Tomorrow, we'll "tackle" (HAHA) the defense.
QUARTERBACKS
OK, we all know the drill. And we don’t know who’ll win the three-way derby between Peter Lalich (#7), Scott Deke (#15), and Marc Verica (#6). Some are excited about the possibility of Riko Smalls (#3) seeing some time, but if that ever happens in any capacity other than to throw the defense off their rhythm, and very, very occasionally, we are frankly dead meat. Verica is said to have the strongest arm; Deke is the fifth-year senior who has already graduated; Lalich is the golden recruit. Here’s the deal, though. If you buy that recruiting rankings are a good judge of raw talent, then Lalich has far and away the most, and if so then it’s a disconcerting sign that he didn’t blow away the coaches and seize the job in spring practice. Deke is a career clipboard stand who has never had even a sniff at the job until this, his fifth and final year in the program; that does not say “big-time talent.” He is in the hunt because he’s the most experienced and theoretically the most familiar with the offense, but as he’s never been in the hunt before, expectations would not be high if the job is his.
The prevailing opinion, both here and elsewhere, is that Lalich will be the starter when USC kicks off. He has too much talent not to be. The contrarian opinion floating aroud is that, Lalich being the only quarterback that Pete Carroll has any tape on, Groh will pull an ol’ switcheroo and put Deke in there, then eventually replace him with Lalich. My feeling is that it doesn’t matter what tape Carroll has, both of them are going to take their three and five step drops and not scoot around, and until they actually let go of the ball you could switch the numbers and nobody would notice, at least not as far as a defensive coordinator is concerned with trying to put together a plan of attack. Whether Deke plays or not, his presence can hopefully have a positive impact on Lalich; without him, there would be no quarterback more senior than Verica on the roster.
Bottom line, then. Lalich did not have a stellar year in 2007. Freshman quarterbacks rarely blow you away with their play, and Lalich had his good times and his struggles like you’d expect from any freshman. But the struggles seem to have continued through spring and fall practice, because he hasn’t separated himself from a guy who has never been higher than third on the depth chart. Like 2006, there will be growing pains at this position.
Rating: 2 out of 5, and only Lalich would have the ability to make this go any higher, which is why he’s the one who I think will start.
RUNNING BACKS
You know the drill up and down here, too. Cedric Peerman (#37) and Mikell Simpson (#5) make one of the best tandems in the conference. By their powers combined they rushed for over 1,000 yards last year, with Peerman taking the first half of the season and Simpson taking over in the Maryland game after Peerman’s injury the week prior. It’s unlikely that Simpson can be counted on for 25-30 carries a game, but he is faster, more explosive, and a threat to catch the ball out of the backfield. Peerman runs mostly straight ahead and through people instead of around them. The running game is going to be fun to watch.
Just behind the terrible two is Raynard Horne (#44), who we should expect to see as the first option off the bench, though probably not a lot. Groh was asked earlier this summer if the rotation would include a third tailback; his answer, though not in so few words, was “not bloody likely.”
What of Keith Payne (#32), he of so much (probably a bit overstated) potential? Payne is listed on the depth chart as a fullback – the second fullback. Rashawn Jackson (#31) is the guy we can expect to see leading the way for the tailbacks. Rather surprisingly, Jackson was given 14 carries in the Gator Bowl and did pretty good, but don’t expect that to carry over to this season. Groh knows where his gravy train is, and there aren’t going to be a lot of carries to go around after Peerman and Simpson get theirs.
Rating: 4 out of 5. Peerman and Simpson aren’t quite Knowshon Moreno good, but they’re right there with the best in the conference.
WIDE RECEIVERS
‘Tree...whee!(?) Is he going to save the passing game by himself now that he‘s back from a pretty bad knee injury? Unlikely. The fly pattern is not on the front page of Al Groh’s playbook, and the last time a wide receiver played more than a supporting role in the offense, Matt Schaub was throwing to Billy McMullen. But Kevin Ogletree (#20) is also the best chance we’ve had at seeing a big-play receiver since the aforementioned #11. Wide receiver play, and not just that of Ogletree, will go a long way toward making this offense bigger and better than one dimension. Ogletree will need help, and in your humble blogger’s opinion he is most likely to get it from either Dontrelle Inman (#81) or Cary Koch (#26).
Inman came in well-rated by the recruiting services and had a decent campaign for a freshman wide receiver in an offense which de-emphasized the position. Inman should be a good one to watch in the future. Koch transferred in from Tulane after Hurricane Katrina wiped out his major, and immediately found himself derailed with various annoying injuries. Koch’s freshman year was actually pretty good, with 23 catches for 308 yards, and his lack of notable production since then can be chalked up to a hamstring and an MCL. With health comes the chance to be a real sleeper in the ACC.
Koch and Inman, though, are actually listed second on the two-deep behind Ogletree and Maurice Covington (#80) respectively. Covington is a senior and we probably will not see very much from him that we haven’t already. He’ll be steady, and the numbers should rise from last year since he missed four games with a broken hand, but if there’s going to be a real breakthrough in the receiving corps, it likely will be from a lesser-known quantity. We’ve seen what Covington can do, and he’s not a game-breaker.
This is not to forget about Staton Jobe (#22). Jobe walked on to the team last year and walked his way right on to the field. He caught 17 passes last year and is definitely part of the rotation, if not exactly the two-deep. Kris Burd (#18) is another to watch for. Burd impressed the coaches in the offseason and we should expect to see them find a way to get him on the field this year. In a three-receiver set, Burd would be second on the depth chart behind Koch, in the slot.
What’s going to have to happen for the wide receivers to make a real impression on the offense is that someone will have to show they can consistently get open. Ogletree alone will make this offense more receiver-oriented than last year; 2007 was an anomaly even for Groh. He has the skills to beat single coverage, which means he’ll probably be seeing consistent doubles probably as soon as Game Number One. When that happens, someone - anyone, anyone at all - will need to show they can get open on the other side and keep the defenses honest. If they do it will make the offense exponentially better.
Rating: 2 out of 5, but with enough potential and depth to go as high as 4 by season’s end if all works out just right.
TIGHT ENDS
The moneymaker. My first year as a UVA fan was 2000, when Billy Baber was catching passes from Dan Ellis. Since then the only years in which a UVA tight end was not drafted into the NFL were the years when none of them were seniors. The player du jour at the position this year is John Phillips (#85), who caught 17 balls in 2007. Many offenses don’t even use their first tight end that much let alone their third. Little needs to be said - he proved dependable last year and will, as usual, be a big part of the offense this year. Behind him on the depth chart is Joe Torchia (#83). Torchia saw the field in goal-line situations last year when Groh felt like three or four tight ends would make a good blocking formation. No reason to believe that Torchia won’t simply ride the TE conveyor belt and make himself more than useful in the offense this year. Andrew Devlin (#87) will likely jump into Torchia’s old role.
Rating: 4 out of 5. The default setting for Al Groh tight ends. I’m convinced he could find a way to make Muggsy Bogues a good player at this position.
OFFENSIVE LINE
This is the lineup that will take the field against USC: Eugene Monroe (#75) and Will Barker (#61) are the tackles. This is the part of the line that’s in great shape, as long as Barker doesn’t take any more late-late-late night trips to the cooler at certain downtown bars. Both have loads of starting experience, and Monroe was Rivals’ #3 overall recruit in 2005 and is getting that kind of hype again as he enters his senior year. At guard we have Zak Stair (#76) on the left side and B.J. Cabbell (#65) on the right, and Jack Shields (#64) is the starting center. So what we have is progressively less and less experience as you move inward; Stair and Cabbell have seen the field mostly as part of the kick protection team, and Shields has played in exactly one game his whole career.
The backups are mostly freshman, so, ouch. Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that. The only one who isn’t is the backup RG, Isaac Cain (#78) and he’s got just as much experience as Shields does. Stuck back there somewhere is junior Patrick Slebonick, who has just as much experience as Shields and Cain. (See a trend here? The “one game” here is Pittsburgh for all three. You got it – scrub time in a blowout.) Slebonick, though, doesn’t appear in the two-deep thanks to true freshman Austin Pasztor (#63) who’s going to see his share of the field this year. Pasztor is listed as the backup to Zak Stair.
Rating: 3 out of 5. I’m actually pretty bullish on this group. The tackles are very good. The rest of the line is woefully inexperienced, but I think Dave Borbely has that covered. Branden Albert went from a middling three-star recruit to a top-ten pick in the NFL draft under Borbely’s tutelage. His awesomely massive mustache alone is worth some confidence points, and I think he’ll have this group ready to go.
KICKER
Yannick Reyering (#10) will be the kicker for at least the first game this year, having won the camp competition. Yannick Reyering is a former UVA soccer player; Yannick Reyering walked on to the football team after his soccer eligibility expired and now Yannick Reyering is the starter. If Groh had said, screw it, whoever has the coolest name gets to be the kicker, Yannick Reyering would still have won, hands down. But his backup would have been Zach Mendez-Zfass.
Rating: 2 out of 5. The guy is used to aiming for a much much bigger target with only one guy trying to block. He's done nicely in practice, especially for a German dude who not that long ago knew as much about football American-style as you do about Sepak Takraw. But games are another thing entirely. Keeping fingers crossed.
FRESHMEN ON THE FIELD
G Austin Pasztor (true)
WR Kris Burd (redshirt)
TE Andrew Devlin (redshirt)
IN A NUTSHELL
Forget quarterback. Lalich will probably get most of the starts and most of the snaps this year. And you can probably peg how good he’ll be – simply expect a natural progression from last year’s ups and downs, and don’t bet on a sudden out-of-nowhere banner season. The offense is going to hinge on two things: the interior linemen, and every wide receiver except for Kevin Ogletree. If Stair, Shields, and Cabbell are at least adequate, the running game will go places. Places like the end zone. The receivers need to take pressure off of Ogletree. He’s gonna get double-teamed all the damn time until somebody makes the defense pay for doing so. Phillips doesn’t count, he’s a tight end and therefore will be busy showing someone else’s defensive coordinator that linebackers can’t be trusted in pass coverage. It’s the safeties that have to stay off of Ogletree if he’s going to be any kind of a big-play threat at all, and they’re just going to blanket him if they know that whoever else is across from him can’t shake the single cornerback coverage.
QUARTERBACKS
OK, we all know the drill. And we don’t know who’ll win the three-way derby between Peter Lalich (#7), Scott Deke (#15), and Marc Verica (#6). Some are excited about the possibility of Riko Smalls (#3) seeing some time, but if that ever happens in any capacity other than to throw the defense off their rhythm, and very, very occasionally, we are frankly dead meat. Verica is said to have the strongest arm; Deke is the fifth-year senior who has already graduated; Lalich is the golden recruit. Here’s the deal, though. If you buy that recruiting rankings are a good judge of raw talent, then Lalich has far and away the most, and if so then it’s a disconcerting sign that he didn’t blow away the coaches and seize the job in spring practice. Deke is a career clipboard stand who has never had even a sniff at the job until this, his fifth and final year in the program; that does not say “big-time talent.” He is in the hunt because he’s the most experienced and theoretically the most familiar with the offense, but as he’s never been in the hunt before, expectations would not be high if the job is his.
The prevailing opinion, both here and elsewhere, is that Lalich will be the starter when USC kicks off. He has too much talent not to be. The contrarian opinion floating aroud is that, Lalich being the only quarterback that Pete Carroll has any tape on, Groh will pull an ol’ switcheroo and put Deke in there, then eventually replace him with Lalich. My feeling is that it doesn’t matter what tape Carroll has, both of them are going to take their three and five step drops and not scoot around, and until they actually let go of the ball you could switch the numbers and nobody would notice, at least not as far as a defensive coordinator is concerned with trying to put together a plan of attack. Whether Deke plays or not, his presence can hopefully have a positive impact on Lalich; without him, there would be no quarterback more senior than Verica on the roster.
Bottom line, then. Lalich did not have a stellar year in 2007. Freshman quarterbacks rarely blow you away with their play, and Lalich had his good times and his struggles like you’d expect from any freshman. But the struggles seem to have continued through spring and fall practice, because he hasn’t separated himself from a guy who has never been higher than third on the depth chart. Like 2006, there will be growing pains at this position.
Rating: 2 out of 5, and only Lalich would have the ability to make this go any higher, which is why he’s the one who I think will start.
RUNNING BACKS
You know the drill up and down here, too. Cedric Peerman (#37) and Mikell Simpson (#5) make one of the best tandems in the conference. By their powers combined they rushed for over 1,000 yards last year, with Peerman taking the first half of the season and Simpson taking over in the Maryland game after Peerman’s injury the week prior. It’s unlikely that Simpson can be counted on for 25-30 carries a game, but he is faster, more explosive, and a threat to catch the ball out of the backfield. Peerman runs mostly straight ahead and through people instead of around them. The running game is going to be fun to watch.
Just behind the terrible two is Raynard Horne (#44), who we should expect to see as the first option off the bench, though probably not a lot. Groh was asked earlier this summer if the rotation would include a third tailback; his answer, though not in so few words, was “not bloody likely.”
What of Keith Payne (#32), he of so much (probably a bit overstated) potential? Payne is listed on the depth chart as a fullback – the second fullback. Rashawn Jackson (#31) is the guy we can expect to see leading the way for the tailbacks. Rather surprisingly, Jackson was given 14 carries in the Gator Bowl and did pretty good, but don’t expect that to carry over to this season. Groh knows where his gravy train is, and there aren’t going to be a lot of carries to go around after Peerman and Simpson get theirs.
Rating: 4 out of 5. Peerman and Simpson aren’t quite Knowshon Moreno good, but they’re right there with the best in the conference.
WIDE RECEIVERS
‘Tree...whee!(?) Is he going to save the passing game by himself now that he‘s back from a pretty bad knee injury? Unlikely. The fly pattern is not on the front page of Al Groh’s playbook, and the last time a wide receiver played more than a supporting role in the offense, Matt Schaub was throwing to Billy McMullen. But Kevin Ogletree (#20) is also the best chance we’ve had at seeing a big-play receiver since the aforementioned #11. Wide receiver play, and not just that of Ogletree, will go a long way toward making this offense bigger and better than one dimension. Ogletree will need help, and in your humble blogger’s opinion he is most likely to get it from either Dontrelle Inman (#81) or Cary Koch (#26).
Inman came in well-rated by the recruiting services and had a decent campaign for a freshman wide receiver in an offense which de-emphasized the position. Inman should be a good one to watch in the future. Koch transferred in from Tulane after Hurricane Katrina wiped out his major, and immediately found himself derailed with various annoying injuries. Koch’s freshman year was actually pretty good, with 23 catches for 308 yards, and his lack of notable production since then can be chalked up to a hamstring and an MCL. With health comes the chance to be a real sleeper in the ACC.
Koch and Inman, though, are actually listed second on the two-deep behind Ogletree and Maurice Covington (#80) respectively. Covington is a senior and we probably will not see very much from him that we haven’t already. He’ll be steady, and the numbers should rise from last year since he missed four games with a broken hand, but if there’s going to be a real breakthrough in the receiving corps, it likely will be from a lesser-known quantity. We’ve seen what Covington can do, and he’s not a game-breaker.
This is not to forget about Staton Jobe (#22). Jobe walked on to the team last year and walked his way right on to the field. He caught 17 passes last year and is definitely part of the rotation, if not exactly the two-deep. Kris Burd (#18) is another to watch for. Burd impressed the coaches in the offseason and we should expect to see them find a way to get him on the field this year. In a three-receiver set, Burd would be second on the depth chart behind Koch, in the slot.
What’s going to have to happen for the wide receivers to make a real impression on the offense is that someone will have to show they can consistently get open. Ogletree alone will make this offense more receiver-oriented than last year; 2007 was an anomaly even for Groh. He has the skills to beat single coverage, which means he’ll probably be seeing consistent doubles probably as soon as Game Number One. When that happens, someone - anyone, anyone at all - will need to show they can get open on the other side and keep the defenses honest. If they do it will make the offense exponentially better.
Rating: 2 out of 5, but with enough potential and depth to go as high as 4 by season’s end if all works out just right.
TIGHT ENDS
The moneymaker. My first year as a UVA fan was 2000, when Billy Baber was catching passes from Dan Ellis. Since then the only years in which a UVA tight end was not drafted into the NFL were the years when none of them were seniors. The player du jour at the position this year is John Phillips (#85), who caught 17 balls in 2007. Many offenses don’t even use their first tight end that much let alone their third. Little needs to be said - he proved dependable last year and will, as usual, be a big part of the offense this year. Behind him on the depth chart is Joe Torchia (#83). Torchia saw the field in goal-line situations last year when Groh felt like three or four tight ends would make a good blocking formation. No reason to believe that Torchia won’t simply ride the TE conveyor belt and make himself more than useful in the offense this year. Andrew Devlin (#87) will likely jump into Torchia’s old role.
Rating: 4 out of 5. The default setting for Al Groh tight ends. I’m convinced he could find a way to make Muggsy Bogues a good player at this position.
OFFENSIVE LINE
This is the lineup that will take the field against USC: Eugene Monroe (#75) and Will Barker (#61) are the tackles. This is the part of the line that’s in great shape, as long as Barker doesn’t take any more late-late-late night trips to the cooler at certain downtown bars. Both have loads of starting experience, and Monroe was Rivals’ #3 overall recruit in 2005 and is getting that kind of hype again as he enters his senior year. At guard we have Zak Stair (#76) on the left side and B.J. Cabbell (#65) on the right, and Jack Shields (#64) is the starting center. So what we have is progressively less and less experience as you move inward; Stair and Cabbell have seen the field mostly as part of the kick protection team, and Shields has played in exactly one game his whole career.
The backups are mostly freshman, so, ouch. Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that. The only one who isn’t is the backup RG, Isaac Cain (#78) and he’s got just as much experience as Shields does. Stuck back there somewhere is junior Patrick Slebonick, who has just as much experience as Shields and Cain. (See a trend here? The “one game” here is Pittsburgh for all three. You got it – scrub time in a blowout.) Slebonick, though, doesn’t appear in the two-deep thanks to true freshman Austin Pasztor (#63) who’s going to see his share of the field this year. Pasztor is listed as the backup to Zak Stair.
Rating: 3 out of 5. I’m actually pretty bullish on this group. The tackles are very good. The rest of the line is woefully inexperienced, but I think Dave Borbely has that covered. Branden Albert went from a middling three-star recruit to a top-ten pick in the NFL draft under Borbely’s tutelage. His awesomely massive mustache alone is worth some confidence points, and I think he’ll have this group ready to go.
KICKER
Yannick Reyering (#10) will be the kicker for at least the first game this year, having won the camp competition. Yannick Reyering is a former UVA soccer player; Yannick Reyering walked on to the football team after his soccer eligibility expired and now Yannick Reyering is the starter. If Groh had said, screw it, whoever has the coolest name gets to be the kicker, Yannick Reyering would still have won, hands down. But his backup would have been Zach Mendez-Zfass.
Rating: 2 out of 5. The guy is used to aiming for a much much bigger target with only one guy trying to block. He's done nicely in practice, especially for a German dude who not that long ago knew as much about football American-style as you do about Sepak Takraw. But games are another thing entirely. Keeping fingers crossed.
FRESHMEN ON THE FIELD
G Austin Pasztor (true)
WR Kris Burd (redshirt)
TE Andrew Devlin (redshirt)
IN A NUTSHELL
Forget quarterback. Lalich will probably get most of the starts and most of the snaps this year. And you can probably peg how good he’ll be – simply expect a natural progression from last year’s ups and downs, and don’t bet on a sudden out-of-nowhere banner season. The offense is going to hinge on two things: the interior linemen, and every wide receiver except for Kevin Ogletree. If Stair, Shields, and Cabbell are at least adequate, the running game will go places. Places like the end zone. The receivers need to take pressure off of Ogletree. He’s gonna get double-teamed all the damn time until somebody makes the defense pay for doing so. Phillips doesn’t count, he’s a tight end and therefore will be busy showing someone else’s defensive coordinator that linebackers can’t be trusted in pass coverage. It’s the safeties that have to stay off of Ogletree if he’s going to be any kind of a big-play threat at all, and they’re just going to blanket him if they know that whoever else is across from him can’t shake the single cornerback coverage.
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