We begin the second week of our spring preview bonanza by finishing up the ACC's baseball preview, and quite a bit more besides. Truly a post worthy of returning to the weekday drudge after the weekend.
NC STATE
Last year:
Record: 35-27 (15-15)
ACC tournament: 7th seed; 1-2
NCAA tournament: regional 3 seed; 1-2, eliminated in regional
2012 schedule: skips Miami
Names to know: 3B Andrew Ciencin, SS Chris Diaz, LHP Carlos Rodon
Last year, NC State had enough hitting to get themselves into the ACC tournament, and not enough pitching to do anything else. And to make a long story short, this year could shape up the same way.
You have to like what NC State returns; though they lose their two best hitters, enough players return to make the lineup solid at least. Most of the infield returns; the only loss is at first base, but 2B Matt Bergquist and SS Chris Diaz return, along with 3B Andrew Ciencin. Bergquist and Diaz are what they are; decent-to-good hitters and fielders, but Ciencin is an X-factor that could determine a big chunk of the Wolfpack's fate. He was a very good producer in his sophomore year (2010), but the new clankbats took away most of his mojo. And he's not a good fielder. If he can return to form he'll be a very good middle-of-the-order hitter; if not, it'll leave a hole.
In the outfield, steady producer and excellent producer RF John Gianis returns for his senior year, as does CF Brett Williams. If Tarran Senay can seize the LF job after moving in and out of the lineup all season in 2011, it'll mean the Pack only have to replace two regular positions in the field (1st and catcher) and one of those could be filled by power hitter Danny Canela, who mostly DHed last year. Likely first base, as NC State recruited a top catcher in Brett Austin.
But....the pitching. With Cory Mazzoni moving on after being selected in the 3rd round, the Pack have to turn to freshmen. Baseball America calls Carlos Rodon the top newcomer (NC State, in fact, has the top two prospects in the conference according to that listing, and three of the top 10) and he'll have every chance to earn the Friday job. The rest of the rotation will be filled by returning veterans who bounced back and forth from the rotation to the pen in 2011; Ethan Ogburn is probably the front-runner for Saturday, with Vance Williams and lefty Grant Sasser also getting looks. It's not an encouraging group overall, though, and Wolfpack baseball games will probably end up looking like lacrosse scores again.
This could be one of the toughest teams in the ACC to peg, because of their excellent recruiting class that could start to usurp starting roles. But the best guess is another season that looks a lot like last year's 7 seed, because pitching is pitching and the Pack, for the most part, lack it.
VIRGINIA TECH
Last year:
Record: 30-25 (11-19)
ACC tournament: no
NCAA tournament: no
2012 schedule: skips Clemson
Names to know: LF Andrew Rash, 1B Ronnie Shaban, OF Tyler Horan, LHP Joe Mantiply
Ah, Virginia Tech. Leave it to the Hokies to wear the ugliest colors in world history, and then, just to be Hokies, troll the world with unis that look like this and this. Fortunately, they're not a threat to appear on national TV in Omaha any time soon, so baseball fans everywhere have that going for them.
To talk about VT baseball is to start with LF Andrew Rash, who finished last year with a fantastic .335-18-53 stat line. 18 HRs in 191 ABs is ridiculous, especially with a clankbat and not the old pingbats. It translates to 56.5 dingers in a typical MLB season. With 1B Ronnie Shaban and contact-hitting utilityman Jake Atwell in the lineup, Tech at least has a viable middle of the order. Also expect OF Tyler Horan to play a big role, probably in right; Horan hit .396-3-12 in only 48 at-bats last year and slugged a whopping .771. (Even Rash "only" slugged .707.) 3B Johnny Morales returns, though he's nothing special really, and IF Chad Pinder should also move into a bigger role after hitting .310 as a semi-regular last year.
The pitching is decidedly mediocre, though. Veterans Joe Mantiply (lefty) and Marc Zecchino (righty) anchor the rotation, but neither is all that frightening. DIII transfer Andrew Aizenstadt is the likely choice for the third weekend spot. Mantiply and Zecchino were Friday and Saturday last year, respectively, but it shouldn't surprise if the order is shaken up a little this year. Tech has no designated closer; in fact, one of the players tying for the saves lead last year (with three) was Shaban.
VT has a good lineup with the potential to be a very good one. But like NC State, they'll only go as far as their pitching takes them. To the ACC tournament? Possibly - skipping Clemson certainly helps. But they play in a tough division and won't have much margin for error.
WAKE FOREST
Last year:
Record: 25-31 (15-15)
ACC tournament: 8 seed; 0-3
NCAA tournament: no
2012 schedule: skips Duke
Names to know: LF Mac Williamson, 3B Carlos Lopez, LHP Tim Cooney
Surprise! Wake Forest has spent some time recently sucking at baseball - especially in 2010 when they were positively horrible - but there they were, a surprise 8th seed in the ACC tournament in 2011 with a respectable .500 record in the conference despite a losing record overall.
How'd they do it? Great question! Outside of LF Mac Williamson and 3B Carlos Lopez, the hitting was pretty bad. As a team they hit .225; the best average was Williamson's .273. Wake relied on the long ball and timely extra-base hits to score runs; Williamson and Lopez combined for 23 home runs. Practically the whole team returns; center field is the only significant gap to fill. Whether that's a good thing goes back to that question about returning bad players; the second-base righty-lefty platoon of Connor Keniry and Mark Rhine batted .197 and .170, respectively. Brett Armour caught every game and hit .185. Williamson and Lopez are good players but if you have any kind of decent pitching, Wake's lineup won't scare you. Or even cause you much stress.
Pitching is why they didn't suck last year; lefties Brian Holmes and Tim Cooney ended up as the Friday-Saturday combo (and will do so again this year) and both were very solid, with ERAs of 3 each. Cooney is the better strikeout pitcher with 91 last year, but Holmes allowed a .233 BA to Cooney's .265. And Sunday pitching is guaranteed to be better no matter who it is; they can't possibly have anyone worse than Austin Stadler, whose 8.63 ERA, 2-9 record, and .364 opponents' BA was simply jaw-dropping.
So we've looked at two teams with good lineups and mediocre pitching that will contend for the bottom seeds in the ACC tournament; Wake will be a contender for same with good pitching and miserable hitting. It'll be interesting to see which results in a better season.
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Now that you've gotten through all that, you're probably wondering: what the hell about our own team. Your reward for sticking through all that is to hear what the hell about our own team. Like any coach with national title aspirations, Brian O'Connor doesn't like to speak of "rebuilding," and in fact I think it's perfectly fair to apply the "reloading" label to this team. We lost a lot of talent to the draft and graduation: Steven Proscia, the school's career RBI leader; David Coleman, an out of semi-nowhere hitting story; John Barr, a steady and extremely consistent left field presence; John Hicks, a terrific defensive catcher who could really mash; Tyler Wilson, the Lowe's Senior Class Award winner; Will Roberts, who tossed the first 9-inning perfect game in UVA history; and some other guy who could also play a little baseball. Our loss was the Seattle Mariners' gain; the way they drafted they might as well just call us their mid-A minor league team in Charlottesville. I probably forgot some by accident, but I got work to do so we're moving on.
But this year's group oozes potential, even if it's a little light on accomplishment in places. Been thinking of what the best way to do this is, and I settled on the old position-by-position standby. Let's go in reverse order of position numbers, starting with....
RIGHT FIELD
Incumbent: David Coleman (departed)
Likely starter(s): Colin Harrington, Mike Papi
Harrington hit .353 last year in limited time, and is on the cusp of becoming a daily player in this lineup. But what I wrote about Papi in last summer's baseball recruit post is on the verge of becoming true: "One of the higher-profile players coming to UVA in the fall.... Rated the #84 high school player in the country by Baseball America, Papi will be the biggest freshman hitter coming in the fall if Derek Fisher signs with the Rangers.... look for Papi to be a well-known name this spring." He hit well in the Orange & Blue WS last fall, he's kept on hitting, and he'll be tough to keep out of the lineup himself. To start the season, they at least make a good righty/lefty platoon (Papi is the lefty) and if they're both hitting, could be excellent candidates to DH as well.
CENTER FIELD
Incumbent: Kenny Swab (departed)
Likely starter(s): Mitchell Shifflett, Reed Gragnani
Gragnani played the position for most of last year, actually, but was bumped for Swab (who, amazingly, moved out there from playing catcher and proved pretty decent.) Swab had a better arm and was hitting better as well.
Gragnani is a versatile player and a decent (but unspectacular) hitter who, if truth be told, will be a man without a position if everyone produces to their potential. He's a jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none type who could play just about any infield or outfield position in a pinch, but will more often than not find himself outmaneuvered.
However, Shifflett is an enigma. He had just nine hits in 38 at bats last year - a .237 average - and more of those were bunts than not. Shifflett was blessed with amazing speed, and was used extensively as a pinch-runner and defensive replacement last year. But if he fails to master his craft at the plate - and there's been little indication that he'll do so - Gragnani will likely be the regular center fielder. Shifflett will get first crack at the job, and if he simply hits .240, .250 or so, he'll stick. But just as likely a possibility is that he'll fail to reach the Mendoza Line.
LEFT FIELD
Incumbent: John Barr (departed)
Likely starter(s): Derek Fisher, Reed Gragnani
Fisher, you probably have heard of, even if you haven't heard of any of the other recruits. His reputation as a hitter precedes him, and he's done nothing to belie it. If you believe in this kind of symbolism - and there's no doubt something to it - he was given Danny Hultzen's old #23. The real deal. But Fisher is also a top candidate to DH, just to make sure his hitting is in a groove, and if he does, Gragnani is the likely choice to field this spot. Keep in mind, Gragnani earned a gutsy four-pitch walk at a crucial point in last year's RALLY TO OMAHA. He's the kind of hitter BOC really likes, so there'll be a spot somewhere. Depending on who's hitting and who isn't, you might also see Harrington or Papi moved out here.
SHORTSTOP
Incumbent: Chris Taylor
Likely starter: Chris Taylor
REMEMBER THIS?
DAMN RIGHT YOU REMEMBER. Taylor is maybe the best defensive shortstop in the league and a great leadoff hitter. As a bridge between the last group of stars and the next, Taylor is one of the most important players on the team. Expect him to play every game at short, minus a couple possible rest games midweek.
THIRD BASE
Incumbent: Steven Proscia (departed)
Likely starter(s): Stephen Bruno, Reed Gragnani
Yes, Gragnani could play this spot too. However, Bruno is the guy for now, and would probably have to play his way out of the role. Remember, he won the starting shortstop job last year before injury forced him out of the lineup early in the year; it was only then that Taylor took over. Bruno is one of the quintessential players that I mean when I say this team has a ton of yet-to-be-realized potential.
SECOND BASE
Incumbent: Keith Werman
Likely starter(s): Keith Werman, Reed Gragnani
There's Gragnani again. Why is he here?
Well, in an ordinary world, Keith Werman - Ninja, the Werm, the Wermanator, or simply one of the straight-up ballplayerest guys around - would take every ground ball, every DP turn, every pop fly, at his accustomed position, second base. However, because he's so friggin' ballplayer, and we have nothing but rookie catchers (at least, rookie to this team) Werman will probably see a few turns behind the plate. (That'll be pretty cool, too.) When he does, Gragnani is the likely choice for second base.
FIRST BASE
Incumbent: Jared King
Likely starter: Jared King
Practically no controversy here. King is a solid fielder and an excellent hitter, and likely to play out almost the entire season here.
CATCHER
Incumbent: John Hicks (departed)
Likely starter(s): Nate Irving, Keith Werman
Irving, a freshman, greatly outhit juco transfer Chace Mitchell in the fall, and will be the guy taking the most turns here. Mitchell will probably get a few chances, but the pecking order right now has him third. Ideally, Irving and/or Mitchell will earn the complete trust of the coaches and Werman can stay at second for good by the end of the season, but it looks likely right now that Irving will take half to two-thirds of the pitches, and Werman will take the rest to start off the season, with Mitchell getting in a midweek game here and there to keep him sharp.
STARTING ROTATION
Incumbents: Danny Hultzen, Tyler Wilson, Will Roberts, Cody Winiarski (all departed)
Likely starters: Branden Kline, Whit Mayberry, Scott Silverstein, Joel Effertz
If we were to simply put the best arms in the rotation, Kyle Crockett would be here in place of Silverstein or Effertz. But those in the know say he's in the pen to start the year. Either that's a commentary on the other lefty arms in the pen or a commentary on the indispensibility of Silverstein and Effertz, and I sure hope it's the latter.
Kline is the Friday starter, without a doubt. He's worked his way through the hierarchy; as a freshman, he began in the bullpen and nudged his way into the tournament rotation at the end of the year. He was the full-time closer as a sophomore, and gave us a classic pitchers' duel with South Carolina reliever Matt Price in the final game of last season. Now he's coming into his own as the staff ace, a role envisioned two years ago when he spurned the Boston Red Sox and 6th-round money to fulfull his UVA pledge. Nobody is Danny Hultzen, but Kline will battle the league's best and his bulldog mentality will make life very tough on opposing hitters.
Silverstein will probably be the Saturday guy, if for no other reason than to go righty-lefty-righty in the order. He's a guy you have to root for: a rare senior, he came in with great stuff and then never pitched in either his freshman or sophomore seasons, the victim of recurring shoulder trouble. It would be the story of the year if he could give the scouts something to think about. That leaves Whit Mayberry for Sundays. Mayberry doesn't have overpowering stuff, but he's got occasional starting experience and he's always been a steady hand. He's an inexplicable favorite of mine, and a favorite of BOC's too, because he always attacks the strike zone, which he couldn't get away with if he didn't have terrific control. Finally, your weekday starter will be Joel Effertz, a perfect replacement for Cody Winiarski because he transferred from the same juco.
BULLPEN
Incumbent: everyone else
Likely starter(s): "starting reliever"?
To kick things off, the likely closer is Justin Thompson, who's seen quite a few innings of long relief in the past and, as a senior, should have the necessary mentality to get that job done. Thompson was generally the first guy out of the pen last year (if the ball wasn't handed straight to Kline); that role will likely now fall to the lefty, Kyle Crockett.
Another player who's been talked up by BOC (and BOC is not one to idly talk someone up): Artie Lewicki. He didn't pitch much last year - only 9.1 innings. But in that time he only gave up one hit, one run, struck out 10, and pitched in a few very crucial situations to boot. Lewicki is probably the bullpen's prime right-hander (besides closer Thompson.)
After that - well, your guess is as good as mine. Or anyone's. Other than senior Shane Halley, all the other options are either freshmen or sophomores who didn't get much time last year. Halley isn't really a solution; if he were, he'd've shown out by now. After Crockett and Lewicki, there's about, oh, 35 innings or so of relief work to be doled out, and it'll be fun to see who steps up.
The season officially starts on Friday in South Carolina; UVA will play games against Boston College and Coastal Carolina on the campus of CCU, and then a game against James Madison in Myrtle Beach. Assuming BC starts a right-hander, this is what the lineup might-could look like:
SS Chris Taylor
LF Reed Gragnani
DH Derek Fisher
1B Jared King
RF Mike Papi
3B Stephen Bruno
C Nate Irving
2B Keith Werman
CF Mitchell Shifflett
SP Branden Kline
All that said, where does UVA end up in the pecking order? Here's how I see the tournament pods breaking out:
1 North Carolina
4 Florida State
5 Virginia
8 Wake Forest
2 Clemson
3 Georgia Tech
6 Miami
7 Virginia Tech
5th seed is a real let-down from years past, but you gotta remember what a cliff there is between the top six and bottom six. If we don't host a regional, don't sweat it; this is a bridge year. That freshman class could nose its way into some playing time, and by the time those guys are juniors, it'll be time once again to be thinking CWS. Hell, that's the goal anyway. I think this team is good for 18-19 wins in the ACC; we'll probably hear some sniping from the peanut gallery about our OOC schedule like in years past, but the tradeoff is a whole bunch of wins.
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Housekeeping:
-- I need to make some updates to the recruiting board, but that'll have to wait til tomorrow.
-- In the we-can't-have-nice-things-around-here department, Joe Harris has a broken bone in his left hand. Well ain't that fantastic. He'll keep playing, and it probably won't affect him too badly; he came out with his hand taped up in the second half against UNC and hit his first shot, but since this is Virginia, and we can't have nice things around here, the key word is "probably." Just wait til someone makes a point of thwacking his hand when he thinks he can get away with it.
-- Last week we had to put up with the rumors flying about Bill Lazor being a candidate for the OC job in Tampa Bay, under the Bucs' new coach Greg Schiano. He didn't go, of course. I tell you this not because I think you don't know about it, but just to remind you that this is now officially our little annual heart attack. As long as the UVA offense is any good, that's how it's gonna be. Don't set yourself up for disappointment by demanding to know why London doesn't hire the next Bud Foster, who's been with Tech forever, because Foster is one-of-a-kind. You know the old saying about how you can have a job done three different ways (good, fast, or cheap) but you can only pick two? It's like that with coordinators. You can have young, loyal, or good, but you can only have two. Good, loyal coordinators are almost always old. Think Jim Reid. Good young coordinators, the kind with a long career ahead of them, are upwardly mobile and ripe for the picking at any time. Think Bill Lazor. You don't want a young and loyal one. Think Mike Groh.
-- Want to write a guest column? Scroll down to Saturday's call for submissions for details.
Showing posts with label tech. Show all posts
Showing posts with label tech. Show all posts
Monday, February 13, 2012
Monday, January 23, 2012
the home court rims are supposed to be bigger
I would like to begin this week's posting efforts by pointing out that when I write game predictions, I don't take into account the possibility of the rim actively working to block our shots. I'm sure I've never seen a game in which so many layups, free throws, and jump shots rimmed in and out of the basket. Layups! All Akil Mitchell had to do was drop the ball in the rim!
The too-obvious assertion was that we missed Assane Sene's defense, sitting out the first of six weeks' worth of games with a broken ankle. I can think of a time or two when VT scorers took the ball unabated to the rack, and Sene might've had a thing or two to say about that, sure, but the fact is: 47 points! Tech was held to about .85 points per possession, which is right in line with the season average. We might've missed Sene's offense.
Despite having too many turnovers, including one by Joe Harris that looked like something out of a certain Miami game last year, I can't be too upset with the execution. It's just frustrating as hell to watch layups circle around the inside of the rim and circle right back out. 12 turnovers are too many, but even a below-average shooting night would've offered a comfortable win.
I'm often critical of Seth Greenberg's coaching, but you have to give Fester credit for a few things last night. Once he figured out he could take away Mike Scott because he didn't care if Jontel Evans was shooting, that's exactly what he did. VT normally plays a more aggressive defense on the perimeter, because they think they have better athletes than you and they want to force you into turnovers and turn them into transition buckets. Instead it looked like playing basketball in the mirror, with the interior denied. Shit, if you're gonna shoot 1-for-14 from three-point range, teams will be happy to watch you do it.
That was so bad I don't even wanna talk about the GT game any more. It's like that happened in October. That's how quickly you go from "on a roll" to "oh man, I know Boston College is terrible and we really should win, but actually we have to otherwise everyone will be legitimately questioning this team's ability to do anything right." In other words, don't lose to Boston College.
Unfortunately, thanks to the two Christmastime transfer, this is the team we got and there's no other options. If Sammy Zeglinski happens to be struggling with his shot, which wouldn't you know it he is, the number of people we can turn to are awfully limited. With Sene hurt and the bottom of the net suddenly requiring a treasure map to find, we sure could use another big man and another shooter, the latter if for no other reason than to see if he's got a shot on a night when nobody else seems to. Big man and a shooter, where can we find.... oh dammit, they left.
At any rate, no need to panic. Vent, yes, don't panic. I mean, how many other teams can play offense like that, shoot 1-for-14 from three and 32% overall, and lose by two? Only if you play nice defense. As big of a pisser as that game was, it teaches this lesson: that's why Tony Bennett emphasizes defense the way he does. Because you can go into shooting slumps, but there's essentially no such thing as a defensive slump. On defense, you are what you are and it's unlikely you'll see any inconsistency from game to game. Which means you can always fall back on that while you work on that offense. Which combined with the fact that Selection Sunday is seven weeks away, is encouraging.
*************************************
I went back and forth and back and forth again on whether or not to make any mention at all of Joe Paterno's untimely passing. I don't really dig on politicking and philosophizing here on what should be a sports-only escape. Obviously I have decided to do so this time. If the death of any 85-year-old can be considered untimely, that would be it. Not even half a year ago (not even a third of a year ago) they were interviewing him weekly wondering when he'd be back on the field and not in the coaching box, as if that was the most important question that could possibly answered in all of football. His health went downhill like that, and it's not surprising - even Paterno himself was afraid that he'd be one of those guys who immersed himself in his job and literally couldn't survive without it. His fears came true. Yes, he was getting treatment, but I don't think he actually fought his lung cancer one iota.
Thanks to a certain former defensive coordinator of his, we are not having the lionization ceremonies we expected we would on this occasion. Opinions range from "Paterno was still a great man" to "Paterno enabled and permitted children to raped, fuck him." As best I can tell, the general narrative and opinion lands about three-quarters of the way to the "great man" side; this is healthy. There are two things that can be said about Paterno's life right now, both of which are true:
- He affected more people in a positive way than almost anybody in this country.
- He did less than he could've and (in hindsight) should've to stop a serial child rapist.
It is not right to forget either. It is especially wrong to forget the former. In fact, it is dangerous to do so.
If you remove the good from Paterno's life and call him evil because he allowed the perpetuation of evil, then the lesson is this: evil things are done by evil people. But people aren't black and white like that. And to make things more complicated, nobody (except people with warped minds) sees themselves as evil. Good Lord, even Jerry Sandusky doesn't. And because we think we are generally good people, we associate ourselves with others who we think are good people.
So if you remove the good from Paterno's life, because a thing that bad be can't be done or tolerated by someone good, then he's an evil person. But if you do that, you cloud your eyes - just like Joe Paterno clouded his. Jerry Sandusky, why, he's this good guy I've known all my life who works his tail off and does all these charitable things and is loyally devoted to his wife and family. To forcibly ignore all the good things Paterno did - well, in a way, that's how Sandusky was let off the hook time and again. Because in the end Paterno couldn't see, even through Coke-bottle glasses, how good and evil could exist in one person simultaneously. Because he believed that evil things are done by evil people - not the good ones that he knows.
Human nature doesn't want to let us believe otherwise; that's why it's considered strong and courageous to blow the whistle. We get a nasty case of cognitive dissonance, which makes it easier to allow ourselves to let JoePa's legacy be one or the other. But his legacy is most valuable to us as an unadulterated whole. "It can't happen to me, because I would or wouldn't do X" is a dangerous thought; if it can happen to Joe Paterno, who can't it happen to?
The too-obvious assertion was that we missed Assane Sene's defense, sitting out the first of six weeks' worth of games with a broken ankle. I can think of a time or two when VT scorers took the ball unabated to the rack, and Sene might've had a thing or two to say about that, sure, but the fact is: 47 points! Tech was held to about .85 points per possession, which is right in line with the season average. We might've missed Sene's offense.
Despite having too many turnovers, including one by Joe Harris that looked like something out of a certain Miami game last year, I can't be too upset with the execution. It's just frustrating as hell to watch layups circle around the inside of the rim and circle right back out. 12 turnovers are too many, but even a below-average shooting night would've offered a comfortable win.
I'm often critical of Seth Greenberg's coaching, but you have to give Fester credit for a few things last night. Once he figured out he could take away Mike Scott because he didn't care if Jontel Evans was shooting, that's exactly what he did. VT normally plays a more aggressive defense on the perimeter, because they think they have better athletes than you and they want to force you into turnovers and turn them into transition buckets. Instead it looked like playing basketball in the mirror, with the interior denied. Shit, if you're gonna shoot 1-for-14 from three-point range, teams will be happy to watch you do it.
That was so bad I don't even wanna talk about the GT game any more. It's like that happened in October. That's how quickly you go from "on a roll" to "oh man, I know Boston College is terrible and we really should win, but actually we have to otherwise everyone will be legitimately questioning this team's ability to do anything right." In other words, don't lose to Boston College.
Unfortunately, thanks to the two Christmastime transfer, this is the team we got and there's no other options. If Sammy Zeglinski happens to be struggling with his shot, which wouldn't you know it he is, the number of people we can turn to are awfully limited. With Sene hurt and the bottom of the net suddenly requiring a treasure map to find, we sure could use another big man and another shooter, the latter if for no other reason than to see if he's got a shot on a night when nobody else seems to. Big man and a shooter, where can we find.... oh dammit, they left.
At any rate, no need to panic. Vent, yes, don't panic. I mean, how many other teams can play offense like that, shoot 1-for-14 from three and 32% overall, and lose by two? Only if you play nice defense. As big of a pisser as that game was, it teaches this lesson: that's why Tony Bennett emphasizes defense the way he does. Because you can go into shooting slumps, but there's essentially no such thing as a defensive slump. On defense, you are what you are and it's unlikely you'll see any inconsistency from game to game. Which means you can always fall back on that while you work on that offense. Which combined with the fact that Selection Sunday is seven weeks away, is encouraging.
*************************************
I went back and forth and back and forth again on whether or not to make any mention at all of Joe Paterno's untimely passing. I don't really dig on politicking and philosophizing here on what should be a sports-only escape. Obviously I have decided to do so this time. If the death of any 85-year-old can be considered untimely, that would be it. Not even half a year ago (not even a third of a year ago) they were interviewing him weekly wondering when he'd be back on the field and not in the coaching box, as if that was the most important question that could possibly answered in all of football. His health went downhill like that, and it's not surprising - even Paterno himself was afraid that he'd be one of those guys who immersed himself in his job and literally couldn't survive without it. His fears came true. Yes, he was getting treatment, but I don't think he actually fought his lung cancer one iota.
Thanks to a certain former defensive coordinator of his, we are not having the lionization ceremonies we expected we would on this occasion. Opinions range from "Paterno was still a great man" to "Paterno enabled and permitted children to raped, fuck him." As best I can tell, the general narrative and opinion lands about three-quarters of the way to the "great man" side; this is healthy. There are two things that can be said about Paterno's life right now, both of which are true:
- He affected more people in a positive way than almost anybody in this country.
- He did less than he could've and (in hindsight) should've to stop a serial child rapist.
It is not right to forget either. It is especially wrong to forget the former. In fact, it is dangerous to do so.
If you remove the good from Paterno's life and call him evil because he allowed the perpetuation of evil, then the lesson is this: evil things are done by evil people. But people aren't black and white like that. And to make things more complicated, nobody (except people with warped minds) sees themselves as evil. Good Lord, even Jerry Sandusky doesn't. And because we think we are generally good people, we associate ourselves with others who we think are good people.
So if you remove the good from Paterno's life, because a thing that bad be can't be done or tolerated by someone good, then he's an evil person. But if you do that, you cloud your eyes - just like Joe Paterno clouded his. Jerry Sandusky, why, he's this good guy I've known all my life who works his tail off and does all these charitable things and is loyally devoted to his wife and family. To forcibly ignore all the good things Paterno did - well, in a way, that's how Sandusky was let off the hook time and again. Because in the end Paterno couldn't see, even through Coke-bottle glasses, how good and evil could exist in one person simultaneously. Because he believed that evil things are done by evil people - not the good ones that he knows.
Human nature doesn't want to let us believe otherwise; that's why it's considered strong and courageous to blow the whistle. We get a nasty case of cognitive dissonance, which makes it easier to allow ourselves to let JoePa's legacy be one or the other. But his legacy is most valuable to us as an unadulterated whole. "It can't happen to me, because I would or wouldn't do X" is a dangerous thought; if it can happen to Joe Paterno, who can't it happen to?
Friday, January 20, 2012
game preview: Virginia Tech
Date/Time: Sunday, January 22; 6:00
TV: ESPNUVA
Record against the Hokies: 81-52
Last matchup: UVA 61, VT 54; 2/19/11; Charlottesville
Last game: UVA 70, GT 38 (1/19); UNC 82, VT 68 (1/19)
Opposing blogs: Gobbler Country, The Key Play
KenPom breakdown:
Tempo:
UVA: 60.4 (#338)
VT: 64.3 (#280)
Offense:
UVA: 106.7 (#77)
VT: 107.6 (#62)
Defense:
UVA: 84.1 (#4)
VT: 94.0 (#62)
Pythagorean win%:
UVA: .9198 (#13)
VT: .8004 (#56)
Common opponents: none
Projected starting lineups:
Virginia:
PG: Jontel Evans (5.6 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 3.7 apg)
SG: Sammy Zeglinski (9.3 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 2.7 apg)
SF: Joe Harris (12.6 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 1.6 apg)
PF: Mike Scott (16.9 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 1.6 apg)
C: Assane Sene (4.9 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 0.4 apg)
Virginia Tech:
PG: Erick Green (16.1 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 3.3 apg)
SG: Dorenzo Hudson (11.7 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 1.7 apg)
SF: Jarell Eddie (9.8 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 1.1 apg)
F: Dorian Finney-Smith (6.5 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 2.3 apg)
PF: Victor Davila (6.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 0.5 apg)
That was fun. I don't really enjoy beating up on Georgia Tech specifically, but any time you get an ACC game that looks like Somalia State, you have to enjoy it. I can't remember UVA beating an ACC team like that, ever. Some old-timer who used to be a brontosaurus hunter back in the day can probably tell us a story about the time Ralph Sampson did something or other, but semi-recent history has nothing quite like that.
So UVA is now "on a roll" and hoping to keep it that way on Sunday when the other Tech shows up. The only negative from the GT game was Assane Sene rolling his ankle and spending the second half in warmups. Whether he'll play on Sunday probably won't be known til someone strolls out to take the opening tip, but if he's going to miss time, this is the place to do it - VT doesn't use a center and the next opponent, Boston College, is Boston College.
-- UVA on offense
The 38 points scored by GT got all the attention, but what shouldn't be overlooked is that UVA scored almost 1.2 points per possession - on the road. It was the fourth-best performance of the year in that regard, and far and away the best opponent we've inflicted it on - the only three games that topped it were Winthrop, Seattle, and Longwood.
If Sene plays, he could be a weapon in this game, as Tech's starting lineup features nobody over 6'8". They simply do not have a center. If Victor Davila, the largest man in the Tech starting lineup, is assigned to Sene, then that probably leaves Jarell Eddie or Dorian Finney-Smith - both athletic but kind of skinny - to try their hand at guarding Mike Scott. Or does Davila, a better defender in general, take Scott? Either way, UVA will have a very exploitable matchup advantage in the frontcourt. Tech may try out 6'9" Cadarian Raines in the starting lineup instead. IF Sene is healthy enough to play.
If not, you'll probably see Akil Mitchell take his place in the starting lineup, and UVA will still be bigger than Tech, but otherwise rather similarly put-together. It doesn't negate the problem of trying to decide whether to defend Scott with someone who's either slower or much less powerful.
This is a matchup of two teams that defend the three-pointer at a nationally awesome level. Specifically, UVA is 2nd and VT is 4th in the country at defending threes. And we haven't been shooting them too well lately, so long-distance opportunities will be tough to come by. Tech is simply athletic enough at all positions to consistently shut down opponent three-pointers, and Finney-Smith is long-armed dude. It's likely that Joe Harris will be his assignment, and that's a tough deal for Joey Hoops, because his game is based on being just quick enough to get past bigger players guarding him and tall enough to hit threes over guards. Finney-Smith out-athletes Harris by a ton and presents a tough barrier to try and shoot over.
No, the way to attack the Hokies is inside-out. Mike Scott is a guy that few teams in the ACC are prepared to deal with, VT among the least of all. And you know they'll foul. Tech is undisciplined and it shows in their foul totals, as by the end of the game, at least one of their bigs is always in foul trouble. Against Wake, it was Eddie; Raines fouled out of the FSU game, and Finney-Smith from the UNC game. Against BC, guard Marquis Rankin fouled out, and no fewer than three other players finished with four. This despite the relatively slow pace that VT employs. Not only do they foul, they might be the one team against whom we look to crash the offensive boards. Tony Bennett emphasizes getting back on defense over the offensive glass, of course, but Tech is so bad at defensive rebounding we might end up with a bunch of boards on this end just by accident. UNC actually outrebounded them in this area, with more offensive boards than Tech had defensive. That is hard to do. Against ACC competition, VT has been allowing opponents 40% of their offensive boards. By working the ball inside and letting Mike Scott be Mike Scott, putback opportunities should be there for the taking. UVA should look to pound, pound, pound inside, take advantage of the inevitable fouls, and get our threes, to employ a galactically overused phrase, the old-fashioned way.
EDIT - so much for the seven-foot mismatch, as Sene will be out six weeks (GGGGGRRRHHHGGGRHRHRHR) with a broken ankle. "Virginia" is ancient Latin for "we can't ever have nice things around here."
-- UVA on defense
Let me go off-topic for a second. Here is a short list of teams for you to peruse:
Holy Cross
Massachusetts
Boston University
What do these teams have in common, besides being bad at basketball? They all beat Boston College by at least 14 points. In the case of Holy Cross, which plays in the Patriot League, it was a 22-point beatdown. You don't want to know the UMass score if you like the ACC. And this is to say nothing of the double-OT loss to 3-16 Rhode Island.
And to illustrate just how important Erick Green is to the VT offense, the Hokies lost to BC without him.
Green is simply an excellent, highly efficient player. KenPom gives him an offensive rating of 120.9. He's got a shooting percentage of .484, 40% from three-land, a solid A/T ratio, and a FT% of .885. He can hurt you a lot of ways. Jarell Eddie is even better from downtown; this season, he's over 50% in that regard. Those two, plus Dorenzo Hudson, are guys you just don't want to send to the line, either, because they're nigh-automatic.
Unfortunately for Tech, a lot of their offensive efficiency gets eaten up by Hudson, a brute-force volume-scorer who shoots a ton of threes and hits only 27% of them. Hudson actually came off the bench for the first time this season against Carolina, in favor of freshman Robert Brown, but Brown isn't much of an improvement. He and fellow freshman Finney-Smith are combining to make only 35% of their shots.
Part of the reason Tech is so maddeningly (to their fans - or enjoyably to us) streaky is that they like to bomb from three; any one of five players is liable to give it a try. Only Eddie and Green are much good at it. Outside of transition, their other preferred scoring method is to slash at the hoop and either beat you with athleticism, or draw a foul, or both. The top four scorers are all guard-types (with Eddie being listed as "G/F"); the bigs like Raines and Davila are well down the list.
Not to be forgotten is Finney-Smith - he "looks lost" on offense, to quote Gobbler Country, and appears to be hitting a freshman wall of sorts, but what he can definitely do is crash the offensive boards. Nobody else is really noteworthy in this regard one way or the other, but Finney-Smith's nose for the ball is an asset. He has pulled in 11.2% of available boards on offense alone, and is by far VT's leading rebounder overall. UVA, of course, is one of the best rebounding teams in the nation - third-best at defensive rebounding after the GT game, in fact - but Finney-Smith will be a challenge.
-- Outlook
On paper, VT looks like a team that can really hurt you. Despite losses to two horrible ACC teams and an 0-4 start in the conference, their KenPom numbers still look decent. They have viable scorers and play perfectly acceptable defense. On paper.
But they play the games on a court made of hardwood, and Tech's season is on the brink at the moment. No tournament bid is likely coming, and they're teetering on the edge of blowing even any shot at the NIT. They were looking good against UNC, taking a 44-36 lead, and then UNC remembered how to play basketball and blew them out. Tech plays an undisciplined, freelancing style, good at out-athleting inferior teams but generally unable to break down a determined, patient effort or a really well-executed system. And what looked like a challenger for non-Tobacco Road supremacy in the ACC is now staring over a ledge and wondering where the bottom is; Tech fans are wondering about an 0-7 start, and even 0-9 is not implausible. The arena will be sold out and loud, and UVA is a confident bunch. This is no time to slow our roll, and I don't think the Hokies will be able to.
-- Final score: UVA 68, VT 56
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
season preview: Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech Hokies
(I knew there had to be a reason I kept that picture around)
Media prediction: 6th
Last season:
Record: 22-12 (9-7) - ACC 6th seed
Postseason: NIT second round
KenPom: 34th of 345
Returning scoring: 36.7%
Returning rebounding: 29.3%
Returning assists: 36.2%
2010-11 All-ACC:
1st team: G Malcolm Delaney
2nd team: F Jeff Allen
3rd team: none
HM: none
Rookie: none
Defensive: none
(Italics indicate departed player.)
Starting lineup:
PG: Erick Green (Jr.)
SG: Dorenzo Hudson (5Sr.)
SF: Jarell Eddie (So.)
F: Dorian Finney-Smith (Fr.)
PF: Victor Davila (Sr.)
Bench:
G Robert Brown (Fr.)
F Cadarian Raines (rSo.)
F C.J. Barksdale (Fr.)
Coach: Seth Greenberg (8th season)
ACC schedule:
Twice: Boston College, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Virginia
Once: Georgia Tech, Maryland, Miami, North Carolina, NC State, Wake Forest
This is going to be so much less fun than in the past. Literally my favorite post that I've ever done in three and a half years of this blog is the Jeff Allen interview from last year. Allen was easily my favorite rival player in any sport to lampoon, and I tried to take advantage whenever given the opportunity. Now he's gone and graduated, and the only real target left on the Hokie basketball team (for now) is the coach.
The more things change, however. Tech is still the fouliest team in the conference, with more fouls per possession than any other team. And Seth Greenberg still has the team on a short rotation....although this latter tendency has been freed up somewhat from the absurd levels it reach last year.
Leading that rotation is point guard Erick Green. Green was forced into more playing time last year when Tech got hit with the injury bug, and he was pretty clearly an improvement over Dorenzo Hudson, the man whose minutes he took. Green is a dangerous scorer and capable distributor, and Tech's offense runs through him this year. Hudson is also a scorer, but an inefficient one who shouldn't shoot threes - he's a senior and has been a sub-.300 three-point shooter all his career. Hudson is also turnover-prone.
Tech doesn't have a true center (that they use) but they tend to play big because they can put a lot of big guys on the court at once. In some respects they have to, because their guard depth took a hit when Tyrone Garland decided to transfer; outside of Green and Hudson, the only other guard in the rotation is freshman Robert Brown. They start three guys over 6'7", though, and bring two more off the bench. Jarell Eddie is a matchup difficulty as a 6'7" three-point shooter - he's taken 48 of them this year and hit on more than half, and Eddie is also the team's best defensive rebounder, though when it comes down to it he's more of a big wing than a true forward. The offensive glass belongs to freshman forward Dorian Finney-Smith, who gathers an excellent 12.3% of available offensive boards.
The bigs can hold their own in the scoring department; none of them are stiffs, exactly. But VT's style is to attack with their guards, all of whom are outstanding free-throw shooters. They'd prefer to either slash to the basket or put threes in the air, and they don't have much of a preference as to which guard does what, as evidenced by the fact that they still let Hudson shoot from downtown. Eddie and Green can hurt you from deep, though, and all three of those guys are nearly automatic free-throw shots. Tech is happy to let you hack away, if you wish. The downside to their game is that it's pretty undisciplined, and they too will hack away.
This tends to lead to underachievement. VT has established a solid pattern, which they don't appear to have broken this year: they're more than talented enough to beat bad opponents, but not disciplined enough to consistently perform against opponents as good or better than they are. They began the year in a familiar spot - right on the bubble - and will probably end it in the same place as ever: on the outside looking in, because they can't gather the resume-boosting wins they need to get in.
****************************************************
-- One nice thing about having
-- In other exciting news, UVA is gaining a 2012 commit a few months early, as Teven Jones has decided to leave Fishburne Military Academy and enroll at UVA for the winter semester. This is a very rare thing for hoopsters. Football players do it all the time because it doesn't start the clock on their eligibility; it does for basketball players because it's the middle of their season. Jones will join the team immediately and take his redshirt season this spring. But he'll get the benefit of practicing with the team, and it'll help ease the transition between the current point guard combo of Evans/Zeglinski and the future one of Jones/some 2013 recruit. Zeglinski graduates after the year, and the way chemistry is on basketball teams, the early addition of Jones is a nice, outside-the-box headstart on 2012-2013.
Thursday, March 31, 2011
series preview: Virginia Tech
Date/Time: April 1-3; 5:30/2:30/1:30
TV: none
History against the Hokies: 84-75
Last matchup: UVA 2-1 series win (4-2, 8-2, 5-8); 4/16-4/18/10; Charlottesville
Last game: UVA 2, GWU 0 (3/29); Radford 7, VT 5 (3/29)
Last weekend: UVA 3-0 over Md.; BC 2-1 over VT
National rankings:
Baseball America: UVA #2; VT unranked
Collegiate Baseball: UVA #1; VT unranked
NCBWA: UVA #2; VT unranked
Perfect Game: UVA #2; VT unranked
Coaches: UVA #1; VT unranked
Composite: UVA #2; VT unranked
Opposing blogs: Gobbler Country
File in the "back to normal" department. After being lauded as a "national power" last season by their mouthpiece in Roanoke, Tech is back to strugglesville in baseball and the Roanoke Times, like Hokie fans the world over, once again disregards college baseball as a sport. (Hey, at least the infamous GWU writeup acknowledged Will Roberts's perfect game. No such luck from the Hokie Times.)
The reason is the massive wave of graduation Tech suffered this year. But some talent remains, and truth be told the Hokies are more dangerous than their 1-8 ACC record and split four-game series with Bryant might indicate. As with most teams, the big advantage we'll have over Tech is in the rotation. Tech will probably go with Joe Mantiply on Friday; he's never been a good pitcher but he's been their Friday starter all season, probably as a sacrificial lamb to the other team's ace. Tech will hope for a bad outing from Danny Hultzen (good luck with that) but otherwise punt to Saturday and Sunday. Marc Zecchino and Joe Parsons will pitch those two against Tyler Wilson and Cody Winiarski, and UVA should hold the advantage in both. Zecchino is probably Tech's best, striking out 42 this season. Parsons has a better ERA but worse peripherals, and Cody's decent-but-pedestrian 3.51 ERA masks a .212 opponents' BA and excellent K/BB ratio.
The Hokie lineup is interesting. The first six hitters are worrisome. Mostly that's the holdovers from last year like Michael Seaborn and Tim Smalling. (Those two are good hitters but butchers in the field. That's the middle infield. They each average an error every four games or so, so expect at some point to see a fielding mishap. UVA hitters should be looking to drive the ball up the middle.) Part of the reason VT's dropoff in the standings isn't hella worse than it already is, is the emergence of Andrew Rash, who came on strong last year and clearly Tech's best hitter now. Eight home runs; a helluva number for this early in the season with these new bats. Tech has hit 29 all season, good enough for sixth nationally, so they can rake at times.
Still, that's two-thirds of the lineup. Tech is still trying to figure out what to do with the other three spots. Chad Morgan hits for average ok but never walks and strikes out too much for a guy with his lack of power. Everyone else hits worse than .220. The UVA lineup doesn't have anywhere near the slugging that Tech does, nor the top-end hitting overall, but it's more consistent 1 through 9. The other thing Tech doesn't have is lefties. Two regular left-handed hitters and no switch-hitters; and other than Mantiply the chances of ever seeing a lefty on the mound are slim. Whenever you do, start salivating 'cause none of 'em are any good.
So Tech has a decent lineup, but it's still a sweep-or-die series. Partly because it's Tech and you know you've missed hearing the VT battle cry: "nobody cares about that sport." But partly because, again, you don't want to run the risk that the other good teams will too. UNC already did, for example. It's a dangerous series because like with Maryland, you really do want the sweep, but unlike with Maryland, Tech actually has the capacity to take two of three. I look for a similar series as last week: a large margin of victory on Friday and then two close ones over the weekend.
Other series this weekend:
Miami @ Boston College - People were expecting a closer series between Miami and GT but Miami doesn't have the bats. This is more their speed, but BC could surprise with a series win. Good chance for BC to solidify their chances for a spot in the ACCT.
Clemson @ North Carolina - Series of the weekend. Clemson's been on shaky ground but this is a great chance for a statement series against a UNC team that I think is slightly overrated.
Georgia Tech @ Duke - Probably a GT sweep.
Florida State @ Maryland - Same for FSU.
Wake Forest @ NC State - Two bottom-feeders jockey for position. Loser has a very tough road to ACCT eligibility.
Friday, February 18, 2011
game preview: Virginia Tech
Date/Time: February 19; 1:00
TV: ACC Network; ESPN3
History against the Hokies: 80-53
Last matchup: UVA 57, VT 54 (12/5/10)
Last game: Duke 56, UVA 41 (2/16); VT 91, Md. 83 (2/15)
Opposing blogs: Gobbler Country, The Key Play
KenPom stats:
National: UVA #120; VT #25
Offense: UVA #154; VT #36
Defense: UVA #98; VT #28
We meet again. It wouldn't be accurate to say the tables have turned, but these two teams have been moving clearly in opposite directions since the last meeting. Mike Scott's injury has helped drop UVA over 100 places in KenPom's offensive rankings; Tech has actually found an answer for their injury troubles. Instead of dropping out of the NCAA conversation as it looked like they might after losing at home to UVA in December, Tech finds themselves in a familiar place: the bottom of the bubble. They're still probably on the outside looking in: they sit at #56 in the RPI, below Belmont and two spots above where they finished last year. They can't afford any slips; Saturday's game is a golden, golden opportunity to play the spoiler.
HOW WE CAN WIN
- Attack the basket. Remember, Tech has nobody over 6'8" in their rotation. There won't be any galoots like Duke's Ryan Kelly running around, no seven-footers camped out in the lane to turn every layup into Cirque du Soleil. Plus, their notoriously short rotation has gotten even shorter as the season drags on. Manny Atkins, Tyrone Garland, and Jarrell Eddie have seen their minutes dwindle, and they're not real useful anyway: since New Year's Day, Eddie has hit five baskets against teams not named Wake Forest. Jeff Allen still dominates when he feels like it and fouls when he doesn't - lately, he's been feeling it more often, but a leopard don't change his spots. The strategy should be to send Farrakhan, Harris, and Evans at the rim as often as practicable and tell them to dish to the outside only if they see a wide-open man. Otherwise, attack and try and get the foul. (The basket would be nice, too.) Tech is the most vulnerable team in the league to foul trouble because of their short rotation.
- Find something for Tech's new wrinkle. That wrinkle would be Erick Green, who's outperformed Dorenzo Hudson, the guy he's replaced in the lineup. Outperformed badly. Green actually has a slightly higher offensive rating than Malcolm Delaney, and is a better defender, too - much better at coming up with a steal. Oh, and his asst/turnover ratio is much better than Delaney's, too. Green's been the key to Tech's mini-resurgence, and they tend to only lose when Green plays poorly. Case in point: in Tech's ACC wins, he's shooting 37-for-57 (65%), and in their losses, he's 7-for-35 (20%.) 0-for-8 in losing to BC, and 3-for-15 in their loss to GT. Stop Green, stop the Hokies.
- Get the home crowd going. It's a sellout and a big day for UVA sports with the lacrosse game later in the day. Hopefully the crowd isn't too maroon. Good opportunity to establish a big home-court advantage.
HOW WE CAN LOSE
- Miss free throws. This is my way of mentioning what an annoying problem this has been of late. It's fair to say free throws alone cost us the Miami game. Besides, it won't do any good to follow my suggestion of trying to get to the line and then clunking half the shots from there.
- Fatigue. I said this in the last VT game preview, but I meant it differently. Then, it was because of the end of the long road trip. Now, it's because so many of our key players are playing their first college season. I do think the recent freefall on offense has a lot to do with fatigue, because the only ways we can score (attacking the rim and shooting threes) are the most susceptible to tired legs. VT remains a very athletic team, and the short rotation is something they're used to.
HOW THE GAME WILL GO
As usual, close. These games just are, because of the pace and style of the teams. Low-scoring, too, for the same reason. Tech is playing fairly well, but UVA is better-equipped to beat them than most of the rest of the teams on our schedule, so this is a great chance to steal a win. It's getting close to that time of the year where Seth Greenberg opens his flap to politic for a spot in the tournament. It's gotten to be such a common thing that it's now official: to whine, moan, bitch, bellyache, and otherwise throw a hissyfit about being in the tournament is now "going Seth Greenberg." This game will be close, and then in the end it comes down to better playmakers on Tech's side vs. home-court advantage on ours. I like our chances to get the win and put a big dent in the VT tourney bandwagon.
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
season preview: Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech Hokies
Media prediction: 2nd
Last season:
Record: 25-9 (10-6); 4th in ACC
Postseason: NIT quarterfinals
KenPom: 36th of 347
Returning scoring: 98.2%
Returning rebounding: 89.7%
Returning assists: 98.2%
2009-'10 All-ACC:
1st team: G Malcolm Delaney
2nd team: none
3rd team: G Dorenzo Hudson
Rookie: none
Defensive: none
Starters:
PG: Malcolm Delaney (Sr.)
SG: Erick Green (So.)
SF: Terrell Bell (Sr.)
PF: Jeff Allen (Sr.)
C: Victor Davila (Jr.)
Bench:
F Manny Atkins (So.)
F Jarell Eddie (Fr.)
G Tyrone Garland (Fr.)
Coach: Seth Greenberg (8th season)
Schedule:
Once: Clemson (A), Duke (H), Florida State (H), Miami (H), North Carolina (A), NC State (A)
Twice: Boston College, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Virginia, Wake Forest
After UVA went into Cassell and beat VT on their own gym, the season looked like three-quarters of a totally lost cause for the Hokies. Since then: 7-1, with the only blemish being a three-point loss to North Carolina. VT is well poised to return to their usual status as a whiny tournament bridesmaid.
Honestly, it'd be a shame, if it were anyone but Tech. (Or, say, Maryland.) The roster is senior-heavy and returned - almost literally - everyone who scored a basket at all last year. Transfers and injuries took a toll, though: lightly used guard Ben Boggs left the team in December, and depth forward Cadarian Raines broke his foot. Seth Greenberg uses an astoundingly short rotation, using his depth players very sparingly, so those weren't huge losses to Tech's usual way of business, but starting guard Dorenzo Hudson also went down around the same time Raines did.
So what you see is what you get, for the most part, when Tech takes the court for the opening tip. As long as they have Malcolm Delaney, they'll compete in every game. Delaney is a do-everything point guard. And if Jeff Allen is in the mood, he can dominate the post on the offensive end. He averages close to a double-double, though he has a tendency to be a lazy liability on the defensive end and is always in foul trouble. Delaney and Allen are most of VT's scoring punch, and with Erick Green replacing Hudson, they actually haven't lost much there. Beyond that, the other players on the roster are pretty pedestrian. They're functional, but not exceptional. Basically, Tech is a threat to win any game as long as Delaney is Delaney and Allen is fired up to win.
As for style, VT basketball games can get ragged. They try to out-athlete you and they have a tendency to lose discipline (Jeff Allen has zero business shooting three-pointers but he's usually good for one or two a game, which are always bricks) and it results in them creating a lot of turnovers, but also turning it over too much themselves, and fouling too much besides.
They've probably blown their shot at the NCAA tournament. A home win over Oklahoma State is the best thing going for their resume; they lost to every other good team they faced outside the conference. A pretty favorable ACC schedule should set them up for a good seed and an NIT bid at minimum, but they really only have two chances left - at Maryland and Boston College - to make a statement to the committee that they can win away from home. I don't expect to hear them called on Selection Sunday unless they can make a tornado-run through the conference schedule - 10-6, like last year, won't cut it.
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
game preview: Virginia Tech
Forlorn and empty....in everything....forever.Date/Time: November 27, 12:00
TV: Raycom/ESPN3
History against the Hokies: 37-49-5
Last matchup: VT 42, UVA 13; 11/28/09
Last week: BC 17, UVA 13; VT 31, Miami 17
Line: VT by 23.5
Opposing blogs: Gobbler Country, The Key Play
VT season preview
Injury report: None yet, it's a day early. But Keith Payne looks like a go. Barring surprises, we should have a full crew minus the IR guys.
Sigh. This is it. After this weekend it's full speed ahead on basketball, and football is behind us. And chances are, after this weekend we'll all think that's a great thing. I'm not going to wax poetic on what a win would mean because the best thing would be to just let all the losses blend into one another like the rain smearing the makeup of a lonely emo kid, until the day they actually end.
HOW WE CAN WIN
- NO PAYNE, NO GAIN! This was a favorite Wahoo mantra upon Keith Payne's over-heralded arrival as a freshman. It's finally time to put it to good use. You had to know Payne wasn't going to miss this game even if whatever lower extremity kept him out of the BC game was a bloody stump. VT's run defense is suspect; as Gobbler Country informed us, VT likes the nickel package out of necessity, on account of poor linebacker play. Their pass defense is all-conference stuff, but they have the league's second-worst run defense after you-know-who. Give the man 40 carries and he'll get his yards. And it'll keep our hapless defense off the field.
- Keep it close. A win would send a huge message to instate recruits; a close loss would be almost as good. VT fans recognize the need to stomp us into the dirt in order to snuff Mike London's message that our time is coming and their time is over. Frank Beamer recognizes it too, and he won't hesitate to be a ruthless asshole. As with Miami - in fact, even more so - this game is more important for its big-picture recruiting implications than for the this-season effects of the actual result.
- Get the Hokies looking ahead. "Dear Virginia Tech. You may have beaten us once this season, but you ain't shit. Looking forward to seeing you in Charlotte and racking up 50. Sincerely, Russell Wilson." VT has already clinched the division, and as with Miami, a win will mean the opponent didn't bring its A game.
HOW WE CAN LOSE
- Allow them to get Ryan Williams one-on-one with anyone. UVA can stop the run - if the line can swarm the ballcarrier behind the line of scrimmage. VT has the two things which kill our defense more than anything, ever: a mobile quarterback and a tackle-breaking running back. Williams on the edge with a linebacker or cornerback attempting to tackle, especially the way we've tackled all season, means a first down no matter what the yardage. The D-line has to beat its blocks and swarm, or VT will rack up 300+ yards on the ground.
- Get behind early. Again with the Miami game, where UVA racked up a 24-point lead before Miami got on the board. The only recipe for a win here is to get ahead and hang on tight. If we're forced to the air in the hope of getting a quick strike, its over.
HOW THE GAME WILL GO
Oh, you know. Michigan plays Ohio State at the same time as our game on Saturday, so by about 2:00, 2:30 at the latest, I fully expect to be wishing football entirely out of existence. The whole sport.
The spread, I think, is going to be blown apart by one team or another. Either VT wins by 45 - and you know they'll run up the score because Beamer doesn't want London to gain an inch of recruiting ground - or things come together beautifully, Payne gets 175 yards, the defense plays inspired ball, and we lose by 4. A win, I'm not even going to consider the possibility before 00:00 of the fourth quarter. Maybe 00:03, if we're up by two scores. Ha. A low-scoring game favors UVA, a high-scoring game favors VT, and the run defenses are so unearthly poor that the odds of a low-scoring game are microscopically slim.
REST OF THE ACC
Boston College @ Syracuse, 12:00
Miami vs. South Florida, 12:00
NC State @ Maryland, 3:30
Florida State vs. Florida, 3:30
North Carolina @ Duke, 3:30
Clemson vs. South Carolina, 7:00
Wake Forest @ Vanderbilt, 7:30
Georgia Tech @ Georgia, 8:00
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
season preview: Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech Hokies
Schedule:
9/6: Boise State (Mon; Landover, MD)
9/11: James Madison
9/18: East Carolina
9/25: @ Boston College
10/2: @ NC State
10/9: Central Michigan
10/16: Wake Forest
10/23: Duke
10/30: BYE
11/4: Georgia Tech (Thu.)
11/13: @ North Carolina
11/20: @ Miami
11/27: Virginia
Skip: Clemson, Florida State, Maryland
Projected starters:
QB: Tyrod Taylor (Sr.)
RB: Ryan Williams (rSo.)
FB: Kenny Younger (5Sr.)
WR: Jarrett Boykin (Jr.)
WR: Danny Coale (rJr.)
TE: Andre Smith (5Sr.)
LT: Nick Becton (rSo.)
LG: Greg Nosal (rJr.)
C: Beau Warren (5Sr.)
RG: Jaymes Brooks (rJr.)
RT: Blake DeChristopher (rJr.)
DE: Steven Friday (5Sr.)
DT: John Graves (5Sr.)
DT: Kwamaine Battle (rJr.)
DE: Chris Drager (rJr.)
WH: Jeron Gouveia-Winslow (rSo.)
MLB: Barquell Rivers (rJr.)
OLB: Lyndell Gibson (rSo.)
CB: Rashad Carmichael (5Sr.)
CB: Jayron Hosley (So.)
FS: Eddie Whitley (Jr.)
R: Davon Morgan (Sr.)
K: Chris Hazley (5Sr.)
P: Brian Saunders (5Sr.)
Coach: Frank Beamer (24th season)
(Italics indicate new starter.)
Media prediction: 1st, Coastal Division, ACC champion
All-ACC:
2009 1st team: RB Ryan Williams, K Matt Waldron, LB Cody Grimm, P Brent Bowden
2009 2nd team: TE Greg Boone, OT Ed Wang, G Sergio Render, DE Jason Worilds, S Kam Chancellor
2009 HM: OT Blake DeChristopher, C Beau Warren, CB Rashad Carmichael
2010 preseason: RB Ryan Williams
(Italics indicate departed player.)
VT is the anti-Carolina in a way: UNC has a returning defense that, on paper, ought to terrorize the conference on a weekly basis. Yet the media thinks they're a fourth-place team. VT's defense is undergoing a wholesale replacement, but when you've been around for 24 years, the media gives you the benefit of the doubt. Or more.
OFFENSE
In a year where really good running backs are in short supply in the ACC, VT's got the monster. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor is a senior, and on most teams that'd be enough to be the focal point of the offense. But it's Ryan Williams (May He Be Drafted Very High) that ACC defensive coordinators are going to be game-planning for. Williams looks the part of the bruising yet elusive workhorse, and set the school record for single-season yards with 1,655 last year.
But if his runs are slanted heavily to the right side, you'll know why: Tech lost the whole left side to graduation and must break in a new left guard and left tackle. Guard Greg Nosal was a regular reserve in 2009 and played about a third of VT's offensive snaps, but Nick Becton was used only sparingly and generally in mop-up situations. The rest of the line is more than solid, though, and right tackle Blake DeChristopher has been a regular since his freshman year.
Taylor is a more elusive quarterback than most, so if his blind side isn't as well protected as he'd like, he can improvise. Tech's offense is tilted very, very heavily toward the run; Williams is the most dynamic player they have, Darren Evans will return and take a little load off of Williams, and Taylor's feet are more reliable than his arm. He's got veteran targets in Jarrett Boykin and Danny Coale. Boykin is a good but not great receiver on the outside, and Coale is that really obnoxious white-guy sort of receiver that has a knack for coming up with the 10-yard catch on 3rd-and-8.
The last notable departure is huge tight end Greg Boone. Boone used to play a few different trickeration roles when OC Bryan Stinespring was feeling frisky, but Tech has declared Logan Thomas the backup quarterback, and opponents should watch for some wildcat stuff or put-'em-both-out-and-see-what-happens-stuff, as Thomas is a versatile athlete.
DEFENSE
If there's hope for the masses who prefer their ACCCG's turkey-free, it emanates from the defensive line, where VT was hit hard by graduation and early departure. The only returnee here is tackle John Graves, who was generally lost in the shuffle among the bigger names along the line. With good reason: Graves is more of a hold-the-line type of DT rather than a playmaker. None of his new linemates started a game in 2009, but still spent more time in the backfield than did Graves. End Chris Drager is the heir apparent in the playmaking role; 2009 was his first season on defense and he acquitted himself nicely, with 6.5 TFL as a reserve. On the other end is Steven Friday, a decent player but unlikely to strike up the kind of fear that Jason Worilds could.
Barquell Rivers will be looked at for leadership on defense from his middle linebacker spot, especially with the departure of Cody Grimm. Rivers racked up 96 tackles last year. The Hokies also return Lyndell Gibson on the outside; Gibson began the year as a reserve but evicted incumbent Jake Johnson midway through the season and started the last five games. Just a redshirt sophomore, Gibson is likely one to watch out for. Fellow sophomore Jake Gouveia-Winslow steps into Grimm's shoes at what Tech calls the whip linebacker position (it's a little bit of a hybrid between an OLB and a safety.) G-W is the most inexperienced likely starter on the defense and one that opposing offenses will look to take advantage of until he proves himself.
At cornerback, Rashad Carmichael is the returning all-ACC honorable mention player (and had six INTs to boot) but Jayron Hosley might be the guy you keep away from. Hosley was installed as the punt returner as a true freshman in 2009 and couldn't be kept off the field on defense, either. Expect an improvement in cornerback play this year, but a dropoff at safety with Kam Chancellor gone. Rover Davon Morgan started four games last year, but he and free safety Eddie Whitley have big shoes to fill.
SPECIAL TEAMS
There's an unsettled battle for the placekicking duties with Matt Waldron gone; the seniormost participant is Chris Hazley, but the job is by no means his yet. Brian Saunders will probably take over the punting chores. Both positions will probably not be as strong as in 2009, especially punting where Tech got almost 44 yards a kick from Brent Bowden. Tech had strong return men in Jayron Hosley for the punts and Dyrell Roberts on kickoffs; Roberts split kickoff duties with tailback David Wilson who wasn't anywhere near as effective. The coverage teams are still their usual strong selves, but the vaunted kick-blocking that made Tech's special teams famous has been AWOL for a couple years now.
OUTLOOK
After being blown out on national TV by nascent superpower Boise State, Tech's season will go into a severe tailspin that.....well, I can dream, anyway. In truth, once the lights go down in Landover, Tech will have seen their last real challenge until November. The schedule is very friendly as they miss the only two Coastal teams that are likely to win the division. October is especially Charmin-esque. After munching on delicious sugary cupcakes like Wake Forest and Duke, Tech gets a bye week and then a gauntlet of showdowns in a whirlwind November that will decide the division title. Tech is being mentioned as a national title contender but I think that's largely out of force of habit; if they couldn't win a crystal football with last year's defense, it seems unlikely they can do it with this year's. Still, they're a top contender for the Orange Bowl and even if they don't make it, their postseason destination will be a good one.
I will now unclench my teeth. The Terp preview was a lot more fun.
Schedule:
9/6: Boise State (Mon; Landover, MD)
9/11: James Madison
9/18: East Carolina
9/25: @ Boston College
10/2: @ NC State
10/9: Central Michigan
10/16: Wake Forest
10/23: Duke
10/30: BYE
11/4: Georgia Tech (Thu.)
11/13: @ North Carolina
11/20: @ Miami
11/27: Virginia
Skip: Clemson, Florida State, Maryland
Projected starters:
QB: Tyrod Taylor (Sr.)
RB: Ryan Williams (rSo.)
FB: Kenny Younger (5Sr.)
WR: Jarrett Boykin (Jr.)
WR: Danny Coale (rJr.)
TE: Andre Smith (5Sr.)
LT: Nick Becton (rSo.)
LG: Greg Nosal (rJr.)
C: Beau Warren (5Sr.)
RG: Jaymes Brooks (rJr.)
RT: Blake DeChristopher (rJr.)
DE: Steven Friday (5Sr.)
DT: John Graves (5Sr.)
DT: Kwamaine Battle (rJr.)
DE: Chris Drager (rJr.)
WH: Jeron Gouveia-Winslow (rSo.)
MLB: Barquell Rivers (rJr.)
OLB: Lyndell Gibson (rSo.)
CB: Rashad Carmichael (5Sr.)
CB: Jayron Hosley (So.)
FS: Eddie Whitley (Jr.)
R: Davon Morgan (Sr.)
K: Chris Hazley (5Sr.)
P: Brian Saunders (5Sr.)
Coach: Frank Beamer (24th season)
(Italics indicate new starter.)
Media prediction: 1st, Coastal Division, ACC champion
All-ACC:
2009 1st team: RB Ryan Williams, K Matt Waldron, LB Cody Grimm, P Brent Bowden
2009 2nd team: TE Greg Boone, OT Ed Wang, G Sergio Render, DE Jason Worilds, S Kam Chancellor
2009 HM: OT Blake DeChristopher, C Beau Warren, CB Rashad Carmichael
2010 preseason: RB Ryan Williams
(Italics indicate departed player.)
VT is the anti-Carolina in a way: UNC has a returning defense that, on paper, ought to terrorize the conference on a weekly basis. Yet the media thinks they're a fourth-place team. VT's defense is undergoing a wholesale replacement, but when you've been around for 24 years, the media gives you the benefit of the doubt. Or more.
OFFENSE
In a year where really good running backs are in short supply in the ACC, VT's got the monster. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor is a senior, and on most teams that'd be enough to be the focal point of the offense. But it's Ryan Williams (May He Be Drafted Very High) that ACC defensive coordinators are going to be game-planning for. Williams looks the part of the bruising yet elusive workhorse, and set the school record for single-season yards with 1,655 last year.
But if his runs are slanted heavily to the right side, you'll know why: Tech lost the whole left side to graduation and must break in a new left guard and left tackle. Guard Greg Nosal was a regular reserve in 2009 and played about a third of VT's offensive snaps, but Nick Becton was used only sparingly and generally in mop-up situations. The rest of the line is more than solid, though, and right tackle Blake DeChristopher has been a regular since his freshman year.
Taylor is a more elusive quarterback than most, so if his blind side isn't as well protected as he'd like, he can improvise. Tech's offense is tilted very, very heavily toward the run; Williams is the most dynamic player they have, Darren Evans will return and take a little load off of Williams, and Taylor's feet are more reliable than his arm. He's got veteran targets in Jarrett Boykin and Danny Coale. Boykin is a good but not great receiver on the outside, and Coale is that really obnoxious white-guy sort of receiver that has a knack for coming up with the 10-yard catch on 3rd-and-8.
The last notable departure is huge tight end Greg Boone. Boone used to play a few different trickeration roles when OC Bryan Stinespring was feeling frisky, but Tech has declared Logan Thomas the backup quarterback, and opponents should watch for some wildcat stuff or put-'em-both-out-and-see-what-happens-stuff, as Thomas is a versatile athlete.
DEFENSE
If there's hope for the masses who prefer their ACCCG's turkey-free, it emanates from the defensive line, where VT was hit hard by graduation and early departure. The only returnee here is tackle John Graves, who was generally lost in the shuffle among the bigger names along the line. With good reason: Graves is more of a hold-the-line type of DT rather than a playmaker. None of his new linemates started a game in 2009, but still spent more time in the backfield than did Graves. End Chris Drager is the heir apparent in the playmaking role; 2009 was his first season on defense and he acquitted himself nicely, with 6.5 TFL as a reserve. On the other end is Steven Friday, a decent player but unlikely to strike up the kind of fear that Jason Worilds could.
Barquell Rivers will be looked at for leadership on defense from his middle linebacker spot, especially with the departure of Cody Grimm. Rivers racked up 96 tackles last year. The Hokies also return Lyndell Gibson on the outside; Gibson began the year as a reserve but evicted incumbent Jake Johnson midway through the season and started the last five games. Just a redshirt sophomore, Gibson is likely one to watch out for. Fellow sophomore Jake Gouveia-Winslow steps into Grimm's shoes at what Tech calls the whip linebacker position (it's a little bit of a hybrid between an OLB and a safety.) G-W is the most inexperienced likely starter on the defense and one that opposing offenses will look to take advantage of until he proves himself.
At cornerback, Rashad Carmichael is the returning all-ACC honorable mention player (and had six INTs to boot) but Jayron Hosley might be the guy you keep away from. Hosley was installed as the punt returner as a true freshman in 2009 and couldn't be kept off the field on defense, either. Expect an improvement in cornerback play this year, but a dropoff at safety with Kam Chancellor gone. Rover Davon Morgan started four games last year, but he and free safety Eddie Whitley have big shoes to fill.
SPECIAL TEAMS
There's an unsettled battle for the placekicking duties with Matt Waldron gone; the seniormost participant is Chris Hazley, but the job is by no means his yet. Brian Saunders will probably take over the punting chores. Both positions will probably not be as strong as in 2009, especially punting where Tech got almost 44 yards a kick from Brent Bowden. Tech had strong return men in Jayron Hosley for the punts and Dyrell Roberts on kickoffs; Roberts split kickoff duties with tailback David Wilson who wasn't anywhere near as effective. The coverage teams are still their usual strong selves, but the vaunted kick-blocking that made Tech's special teams famous has been AWOL for a couple years now.
OUTLOOK
After being blown out on national TV by nascent superpower Boise State, Tech's season will go into a severe tailspin that.....well, I can dream, anyway. In truth, once the lights go down in Landover, Tech will have seen their last real challenge until November. The schedule is very friendly as they miss the only two Coastal teams that are likely to win the division. October is especially Charmin-esque. After munching on delicious sugary cupcakes like Wake Forest and Duke, Tech gets a bye week and then a gauntlet of showdowns in a whirlwind November that will decide the division title. Tech is being mentioned as a national title contender but I think that's largely out of force of habit; if they couldn't win a crystal football with last year's defense, it seems unlikely they can do it with this year's. Still, they're a top contender for the Orange Bowl and even if they don't make it, their postseason destination will be a good one.
I will now unclench my teeth. The Terp preview was a lot more fun.
Thursday, April 15, 2010
series preview: Virginia Tech
Consider this Installment #1 of Revenge Weekend. Last year, the VT series was the last one before the ACC tournament, and despite not having a spot in it, Tech beat UVA in the series - though it's only fair to note that Danny Hultzen got a weekend off from starting duties and didn't make an appearance on the mound until the third game, in relief of Robert Morey.
This year, Tech has a relevant baseball team that's looking to make the NCAA tournament, let alone their first ACC one. Relevant - but mightily inconsistent. They have their ways of surprising people, none bigger than their series wins over FSU and Miami. They also have their ways of delivering some major clunkers. Getting swept by Clemson put a damper on their record, and while it's not inconceivable you could lose a game to the ACC's worst teams(Maryland and Wake Forest) getting shut out by their awful pitching is not a prideful accomplishment. Neither is losing to Bryant.
Mostly, Tech's pitching is respectable but not scary. We'll probably see Justin Wright, and maybe Mathew Price if they want to give their catcher some exercise (one wild pitch every two and a half innings) but Jesse Hahn is the guy they'll likely send out to duel with Hultzen. Besides Hahn, the other pitcher to watch out for is Ben Rowen, one of the top closers in the country.
Their hitting is largely the strength of the team, although it's been known to totally disappear from various games. Austin Wates and Tim Smalling are batting .400+, and Tech overall is well in the upper echelons of power-hitting teams in the ACC. Steve Domecus leads the way there with nine home runs and a .655 slugging percentage. Tech doesn't walk much compared to the rest of the conference, which you'd expect from a power-hitting team, but they also don't strike out much compared to the rest of the conference either.
One thing Tech has a major shortage of is left-handed pitching arms. Wright is a lefty, and so is Joe Mantiply, and then there's seldom-used spot lefty Sean McDermott....and that's it. I would bet we'll face Mantiply on Sunday instead of Price for this reason, because UVA can throw more lefty hitters at a pitcher than your average team.
Maybe it's a good thing that the team laid such an egg yesterday at VMI, just to get that little memento mori out of the way before this series. Despite Tech's sudden resurgence in the rankings, our baseball team is still better than theirs, only I don't want to make any predictions because last time I said HEY WE KIN SWEEP 'EM, we didn't. Better than theirs, yes; so much better that we can sleepwalk through the series, no.
*******************************************
Couple quickies:
- Billy Baron signed his LOI yesterday, so now UVA can finally acknowledge that he exists.
- Dom Starsia gets a little testy.
- Mike London ganked another Richmond recruit: DreQuan Hoskey, who'll run track as well as play football. It's still up in the air who exactly is going to pay for his UVA education, but right now it seems likely enough that he'll count against the limit of 85 for football....maybe.
This year, Tech has a relevant baseball team that's looking to make the NCAA tournament, let alone their first ACC one. Relevant - but mightily inconsistent. They have their ways of surprising people, none bigger than their series wins over FSU and Miami. They also have their ways of delivering some major clunkers. Getting swept by Clemson put a damper on their record, and while it's not inconceivable you could lose a game to the ACC's worst teams(Maryland and Wake Forest) getting shut out by their awful pitching is not a prideful accomplishment. Neither is losing to Bryant.
Mostly, Tech's pitching is respectable but not scary. We'll probably see Justin Wright, and maybe Mathew Price if they want to give their catcher some exercise (one wild pitch every two and a half innings) but Jesse Hahn is the guy they'll likely send out to duel with Hultzen. Besides Hahn, the other pitcher to watch out for is Ben Rowen, one of the top closers in the country.
Their hitting is largely the strength of the team, although it's been known to totally disappear from various games. Austin Wates and Tim Smalling are batting .400+, and Tech overall is well in the upper echelons of power-hitting teams in the ACC. Steve Domecus leads the way there with nine home runs and a .655 slugging percentage. Tech doesn't walk much compared to the rest of the conference, which you'd expect from a power-hitting team, but they also don't strike out much compared to the rest of the conference either.
One thing Tech has a major shortage of is left-handed pitching arms. Wright is a lefty, and so is Joe Mantiply, and then there's seldom-used spot lefty Sean McDermott....and that's it. I would bet we'll face Mantiply on Sunday instead of Price for this reason, because UVA can throw more lefty hitters at a pitcher than your average team.
Maybe it's a good thing that the team laid such an egg yesterday at VMI, just to get that little memento mori out of the way before this series. Despite Tech's sudden resurgence in the rankings, our baseball team is still better than theirs, only I don't want to make any predictions because last time I said HEY WE KIN SWEEP 'EM, we didn't. Better than theirs, yes; so much better that we can sleepwalk through the series, no.
*******************************************
Couple quickies:
- Billy Baron signed his LOI yesterday, so now UVA can finally acknowledge that he exists.
- Dom Starsia gets a little testy.
- Mike London ganked another Richmond recruit: DreQuan Hoskey, who'll run track as well as play football. It's still up in the air who exactly is going to pay for his UVA education, but right now it seems likely enough that he'll count against the limit of 85 for football....maybe.
Friday, February 12, 2010
game preview: Gauntlet of Doom
If it wasn't before, it's time to get serious now. Put on your war face, lock up the valuables, break out the lucky t-shirt, whatever it takes to get ready for the week ahead. By this time next week, we'll have an extremely good idea about where we stand if we're thinking about dancing.
Honestly, if you're a Virginia basketball fan, and you probably are, could you ask for anything better? Three games to determine our tournament fate, and two of them in hostile gyms against the two biggest rivals we've got. That is a worthy challenge. Tomorrow, a revenge game against Virginia Tech. Monday, equally-despised Maryland in snowbound DC. And Wednesday, back to the friendly confines for the enigmatic Florida State. Because our tournament hopes rest so heavily on this three-game stretch, it's only fitting they all get lumped into one big-ass preview.
A sweep of either variety will seal our fate. Losing all three will set us back to 5-6, and if you think 10-6 is good enough for the tournament, then you'd better hope we can get past Duke, because 9-7 will not do the trick. Winning all three, if I might be allowed to hope against hope we can pull off that stunt, would get us to 8-3, with extraordinarily winnable (albeit road) games against Miami and BC remaining, as well as an already-beaten Maryland at home. Barring a collapse of stupid proportions, we'd be a very, very good bet to get in.
Much more likely is some kind of combination, and, no, 1-2 ain't gonna cut it any better than 0-3 would. Your best hope is a 2-1 split of some kind, landing us at 7-4 with work to do but the finish line clearly in sight.
Joe Lunardi fans will note that it's fitting we start this run off with VT, because check out who the first two teams out of his latest bracket are. As close as these two teams are in the tournament race, if we're going to go 2-1 in this three-game stretch, this is definitely not the game to lose. If we don't make the tournament, the first VT game will be the #1 cause of woulda-coulda-shoulda-itis among loyal Hoos. I still have a hard time believing we're actually a worse team than Tech is, but you wouldn't know it by the way we closed out the halves. The other flaw in that theory is that VT is riding a pretty nice hot streak. Not only did they get their kicks in on UNC like everyone else, they also dispatched NC State and Clemson with prejudice - the latter with a huge assist from the referees. How often does a team score more points from the free-throw line than the field and still win? Anyway, bitching about Karl Hess aside, this is still the most winnable game of the three.
Maryland is next, and it would have already happened if Maryland was interested in following ACC protocol. (Both teams and two of three refs in town? Game on, even if the arena is a ghost town because the city is buried under another blizzard. I wonder who in our administration signed off on a postponement?) Maryland is a fast-paced team with a high-powered offense, and one of the few teams in the league that has someone who can match Sylven Landesberg bucket for bucket. You might want to rip Greivis Vasquez's throat inside out every time you watch him play, but you can't deny he's one of the top all-around players in the conference, and worse, he's got a highly competent supporting cast.
Hate to say it, but Maryland is one of the best teams in the conference. Their low turnover numbers are even more impressive given the number of possessions they generate, they have a lot of players that can beat you, they don't foul much, and their ACC resume is impressive.
In order to beat Maryland on the road, it'll be necessary to slow the game down even more than usual. The Twerps can score from all over the court and with a lot of different players, and they're deadeye shots from the free-throw line, so "snail's pace" doesn't even begin to describe how we want to play the game. If the Hoos win, it might well be the lowest scoring game all season, because we're certainly not winning a shootout. A win here would be a clear upset. To put it in a little perspective, KenPom says our chances of beating Duke at home are better than winning Monday at Maryland.
As for Florida State, argh big men. This is decidedly a frontcourt-oriented team, with bigs Solomon Alabi and Chris Singleton doing the job of putting points on the board. We have no answer for Alabi and he will crush us, because he's seven damn feet tall, and he and Singleton make the best shot-blocking tandem in the conference. The UNC formula is going to be the key here: deny that entry pass like your life depends on it. This may actually be easier than it seems. FSU is a turnover-prone team, and not just because the bigs handle the ball so much. Their guards don't take good care of the ball either, and they also won't scare anyone with their three-point skills. The outcome of the game likely boils down to one very simple equation: the more their guards have the ball and the less their bigs do, the better our chances of a win. And the opposite is the case on the other end. When the other team has shot-blockers, it's obviously more effective if you can just shoot over them from the outside instead of trying to go at them head on.
This coming week in order from easiest to hardest, you've got VT, TFSU, and Maryland. And there's a big gap between the Hokies and Noles. That means that VT is the biggest part of this big week. Lose on Saturday and a tournament-killing 0-3 run will be staring us in the face. Win in a hostile gym and it just might (in my ever-sunny outlook) be the catalyst for an exciting run.
Honestly, if you're a Virginia basketball fan, and you probably are, could you ask for anything better? Three games to determine our tournament fate, and two of them in hostile gyms against the two biggest rivals we've got. That is a worthy challenge. Tomorrow, a revenge game against Virginia Tech. Monday, equally-despised Maryland in snowbound DC. And Wednesday, back to the friendly confines for the enigmatic Florida State. Because our tournament hopes rest so heavily on this three-game stretch, it's only fitting they all get lumped into one big-ass preview.
A sweep of either variety will seal our fate. Losing all three will set us back to 5-6, and if you think 10-6 is good enough for the tournament, then you'd better hope we can get past Duke, because 9-7 will not do the trick. Winning all three, if I might be allowed to hope against hope we can pull off that stunt, would get us to 8-3, with extraordinarily winnable (albeit road) games against Miami and BC remaining, as well as an already-beaten Maryland at home. Barring a collapse of stupid proportions, we'd be a very, very good bet to get in.
Much more likely is some kind of combination, and, no, 1-2 ain't gonna cut it any better than 0-3 would. Your best hope is a 2-1 split of some kind, landing us at 7-4 with work to do but the finish line clearly in sight.
Joe Lunardi fans will note that it's fitting we start this run off with VT, because check out who the first two teams out of his latest bracket are. As close as these two teams are in the tournament race, if we're going to go 2-1 in this three-game stretch, this is definitely not the game to lose. If we don't make the tournament, the first VT game will be the #1 cause of woulda-coulda-shoulda-itis among loyal Hoos. I still have a hard time believing we're actually a worse team than Tech is, but you wouldn't know it by the way we closed out the halves. The other flaw in that theory is that VT is riding a pretty nice hot streak. Not only did they get their kicks in on UNC like everyone else, they also dispatched NC State and Clemson with prejudice - the latter with a huge assist from the referees. How often does a team score more points from the free-throw line than the field and still win? Anyway, bitching about Karl Hess aside, this is still the most winnable game of the three.
Maryland is next, and it would have already happened if Maryland was interested in following ACC protocol. (Both teams and two of three refs in town? Game on, even if the arena is a ghost town because the city is buried under another blizzard. I wonder who in our administration signed off on a postponement?) Maryland is a fast-paced team with a high-powered offense, and one of the few teams in the league that has someone who can match Sylven Landesberg bucket for bucket. You might want to rip Greivis Vasquez's throat inside out every time you watch him play, but you can't deny he's one of the top all-around players in the conference, and worse, he's got a highly competent supporting cast.
Hate to say it, but Maryland is one of the best teams in the conference. Their low turnover numbers are even more impressive given the number of possessions they generate, they have a lot of players that can beat you, they don't foul much, and their ACC resume is impressive.
In order to beat Maryland on the road, it'll be necessary to slow the game down even more than usual. The Twerps can score from all over the court and with a lot of different players, and they're deadeye shots from the free-throw line, so "snail's pace" doesn't even begin to describe how we want to play the game. If the Hoos win, it might well be the lowest scoring game all season, because we're certainly not winning a shootout. A win here would be a clear upset. To put it in a little perspective, KenPom says our chances of beating Duke at home are better than winning Monday at Maryland.
As for Florida State, argh big men. This is decidedly a frontcourt-oriented team, with bigs Solomon Alabi and Chris Singleton doing the job of putting points on the board. We have no answer for Alabi and he will crush us, because he's seven damn feet tall, and he and Singleton make the best shot-blocking tandem in the conference. The UNC formula is going to be the key here: deny that entry pass like your life depends on it. This may actually be easier than it seems. FSU is a turnover-prone team, and not just because the bigs handle the ball so much. Their guards don't take good care of the ball either, and they also won't scare anyone with their three-point skills. The outcome of the game likely boils down to one very simple equation: the more their guards have the ball and the less their bigs do, the better our chances of a win. And the opposite is the case on the other end. When the other team has shot-blockers, it's obviously more effective if you can just shoot over them from the outside instead of trying to go at them head on.
This coming week in order from easiest to hardest, you've got VT, TFSU, and Maryland. And there's a big gap between the Hokies and Noles. That means that VT is the biggest part of this big week. Lose on Saturday and a tournament-killing 0-3 run will be staring us in the face. Win in a hostile gym and it just might (in my ever-sunny outlook) be the catalyst for an exciting run.
Thursday, August 27, 2009
season preview: Virginia Tech
I put this off as long as I could. Tomorrow we'll wrap up the ACC with Wake Forest. God, that helmet thing over there looks like an erupted wart.Schedule:
9/5: Alabama (@ Atlanta)
9/12: Marshall
9/19: Nebraska
9/26: Miami
10/3: @ Duke
10/10: Boston College
10/17: @ Georgia Tech
10/24: BYE
10/29: North Carolina (Thu.)
11/5: @ East Carolina (Thu.)
11/14: @ Maryland
11/21: NC State
11/28: @ Virginia
Skip: Wake Forest, Florida State, Clemson
Projected starters:
QB: Tyrod Taylor (Jr.)
RB: Josh Oglesby (rSo.)
FB: Kenny Jefferson (5Sr.)
WR: Danny Coale (rSo.)
WR: Jarrett Boykin (So.)
TE: Greg Boone (5Sr.)
LT: Ed Wang (5Sr.)
LG: Sergio Render (Sr.)
C: Beau Warren (rJr.)
RG: Jaymes Brooks (rSo.)
RT: Blake DeChristopher (rSo.)
DE: Jason Worilds (rJr.)
DT: John Graves (rJr.)
DT: Cordarrow Thompson (5Sr.)
9/5: Alabama (@ Atlanta)
9/12: Marshall
9/19: Nebraska
9/26: Miami
10/3: @ Duke
10/10: Boston College
10/17: @ Georgia Tech
10/24: BYE
10/29: North Carolina (Thu.)
11/5: @ East Carolina (Thu.)
11/14: @ Maryland
11/21: NC State
11/28: @ Virginia
Skip: Wake Forest, Florida State, Clemson
Projected starters:
QB: Tyrod Taylor (Jr.)
RB: Josh Oglesby (rSo.)
FB: Kenny Jefferson (5Sr.)
WR: Danny Coale (rSo.)
WR: Jarrett Boykin (So.)
TE: Greg Boone (5Sr.)
LT: Ed Wang (5Sr.)
LG: Sergio Render (Sr.)
C: Beau Warren (rJr.)
RG: Jaymes Brooks (rSo.)
RT: Blake DeChristopher (rSo.)
DE: Jason Worilds (rJr.)
DT: John Graves (rJr.)
DT: Cordarrow Thompson (5Sr.)
DE: Nekos Brown (Sr.)
WH: Cody Grimm (5Sr.)
MLB: Barquell Rivers (rSo.)
OLB: Jake Johnson (So.)
CB: Stephen Virgil (Sr.)
CB: Rashad Carmichael (rJr.)
FS: Kam Chancellor (Sr.)
R: Dorian Porch (5Sr.)
K: Matt Waldron (5Sr.)
P: Brent Bowden (5Sr.)
(Italics indicate new starter.)
Coach: Frank Beamer, 23rd season)
All-ACC:
2008 1st team: CB Macho Harris
2008 2nd team: RB Darren Evans, G Sergio Render, DE Orion Martin, DE Jason Worilds
2008 HM: G Nick Marshman, C Ryan Shuman, K Dustin Keys
2009 preseason: TE Greg Boone, G Sergio Render, DE Jason Worilds, S Kam Chancellor
(Italics indicated departed player.)
Media prediction: 1st , Coastal Division, ACC champion
As usual, these bastards won’t go away. Most of the talent that comprised their representation on last year’s all-conference teams won’t be there this year (including tailback Darren Evans) but VPISU is still pretty much the overwhelming favorite for conference champion. Question is, is that because they really are the best team by that wide a margin, or because the media’s just formed a bad habit and doesn’t know how to break it?
OFFENSE
I had to laugh, really. Evans’ injury caused a lot of media types and message board posters to suddenly question the coronation of VT as conference champs. Evans racked up a lot of yards last year, sure, but he needed a lot of carries to do it, and his YPC was decent but a little bit pedestrian. They’ve got a lot of talent behind Evans. Josh Oglesby will get the early nod mainly based on seniority, but my thinking is he’ll quickly be overtaken by Ryan Williams or David Wilson, one of whom (or both) will be the featured back not too long from now.
No, the guy the Hokies need to keep under lock and key is Tyrod Taylor. There are still a lot of legitimate questions about his throwing ability, but there’s no Sean Glennon to kick around any more. Taylor’s it. After that is a guy named Ju-Ju (get ready for months of “bad juju” jokes should Taylor get hurt) and a true freshman they’d prefer to redshirt. Taylor can run, and between him and the tailbacks the offense should have no problem moving the ball on the ground, but Taylor’s got to demonstrate he can throw the ball further than five yards or so. He’ll have help on the other end of his passes. Wide receiver was a huge question mark last year after Tech graduated damn near everyone who’d ever caught a pass, but Danny Coale and Jarrett Boykin proved dependable if not exciting. The scariest guy out there is actually tackle-sized tight end Greg Boone, a major player as a blocker and a pass-catcher, and athletic enough to take some snaps as a running quarterback.
Of course, the run game could grind to a halt too if Beau Warren isn’t up to the task at center. On the left side the Hokies are very well positioned with Ed Wang and Sergio Render. Run-blocking starts in the middle, though, and Warren has very little actual game experience. He’ll be thrown into the fire early – the Alabama game will be an excellent litmus test to see if he can handle a line like North Carolina’s.
DEFENSE
As usual, the calling card, and how VT will win most of their games. There are some holes, most notably a lack of depth at defensive end and a lack of experience at linebacker, but there’s talent enough to cover it up. As long as Jason Worilds doesn’t get hurt, they’ll have a pass rush, though Worilds will see plenty of double teams until Nekos Brown proves himself on the other side. The tackles are not playmakers – they didn’t have to be last year and probably won’t have to this year; again, unless Brown is ineffective. But they do open up the pass rush nicely for the ends.
Cody Grimm was not technically a starter at linebacker last year, but badly outperformed the actual starter, Cam Martin. Both will see time on the outside, but it’s Grimm you should watch out for. Unfortunately for Tech (so actually not that unfortunate at all) most of their experience is piled up at that one position. Jake Johnson was a special-teamer last year and didn’t play linebacker at all. Barquell Rivers has a little more experience at his middle linebacker spot, but he was backing up a 6th-year senior last year, so didn’t get in very much. Lot of inexperience to overcome here.
Not so much in the secondary. Rashad Carmichael is new to the starting role, but has already spent plenty of time in the rotation at cornerback and should fit pretty seamlessly into the job. Macho Harris got all the publicity last year, but Stephen Virgil intercepted just as many passes, making this a pretty dangerous bunch to throw against. Kam Chancellor has been a versatile player, starting at a new position every year, but he’s found a home at free safety, and he’ll be a more dangerous player now that he’s found a little stability.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Solid punting new kicker blah blah blah. Tech has other problems on their hands, like how to regain the special teams domination that TV announcers love so much. Last year they had more of their own punts blocked than they blocked opponents punts, one of them being that ECU gamebreaker. Their punt coverage was crummy too, allowing opponents more than 12 yards per return. The kickoff coverage was a lot better, but then, so was their opponents’. Tech was actually worse than we were at returning kicks, and that was a pretty lame part of our game last year.
OUTLOOK
The song remains the same here. VPISU slappies spend as much time crucifying their offensive coordinator as they do drooling over their defensive coordinator. There’s a reason for that. Sure, the defense has question marks, but Bud Foster usually manages to integrate new personnel into the defense pretty easily. Any game Tech loses this year will probably be pinned on the offense. I think the key is the two guys who get the ball first: Warren and Taylor. If the new center Warren can run-block and Taylor can throw, then the kooky national title aspirations the Hokies carry have a sliver of a chance. If neither happens, the division will go to UNC or GT instead and VT will have to content themselves with 9-3 and a trip to a non-New Year’s bowl.
WH: Cody Grimm (5Sr.)
MLB: Barquell Rivers (rSo.)
OLB: Jake Johnson (So.)
CB: Stephen Virgil (Sr.)
CB: Rashad Carmichael (rJr.)
FS: Kam Chancellor (Sr.)
R: Dorian Porch (5Sr.)
K: Matt Waldron (5Sr.)
P: Brent Bowden (5Sr.)
(Italics indicate new starter.)
Coach: Frank Beamer, 23rd season)
All-ACC:
2008 1st team: CB Macho Harris
2008 2nd team: RB Darren Evans, G Sergio Render, DE Orion Martin, DE Jason Worilds
2008 HM: G Nick Marshman, C Ryan Shuman, K Dustin Keys
2009 preseason: TE Greg Boone, G Sergio Render, DE Jason Worilds, S Kam Chancellor
(Italics indicated departed player.)
Media prediction: 1st , Coastal Division, ACC champion
As usual, these bastards won’t go away. Most of the talent that comprised their representation on last year’s all-conference teams won’t be there this year (including tailback Darren Evans) but VPISU is still pretty much the overwhelming favorite for conference champion. Question is, is that because they really are the best team by that wide a margin, or because the media’s just formed a bad habit and doesn’t know how to break it?
OFFENSE
I had to laugh, really. Evans’ injury caused a lot of media types and message board posters to suddenly question the coronation of VT as conference champs. Evans racked up a lot of yards last year, sure, but he needed a lot of carries to do it, and his YPC was decent but a little bit pedestrian. They’ve got a lot of talent behind Evans. Josh Oglesby will get the early nod mainly based on seniority, but my thinking is he’ll quickly be overtaken by Ryan Williams or David Wilson, one of whom (or both) will be the featured back not too long from now.
No, the guy the Hokies need to keep under lock and key is Tyrod Taylor. There are still a lot of legitimate questions about his throwing ability, but there’s no Sean Glennon to kick around any more. Taylor’s it. After that is a guy named Ju-Ju (get ready for months of “bad juju” jokes should Taylor get hurt) and a true freshman they’d prefer to redshirt. Taylor can run, and between him and the tailbacks the offense should have no problem moving the ball on the ground, but Taylor’s got to demonstrate he can throw the ball further than five yards or so. He’ll have help on the other end of his passes. Wide receiver was a huge question mark last year after Tech graduated damn near everyone who’d ever caught a pass, but Danny Coale and Jarrett Boykin proved dependable if not exciting. The scariest guy out there is actually tackle-sized tight end Greg Boone, a major player as a blocker and a pass-catcher, and athletic enough to take some snaps as a running quarterback.
Of course, the run game could grind to a halt too if Beau Warren isn’t up to the task at center. On the left side the Hokies are very well positioned with Ed Wang and Sergio Render. Run-blocking starts in the middle, though, and Warren has very little actual game experience. He’ll be thrown into the fire early – the Alabama game will be an excellent litmus test to see if he can handle a line like North Carolina’s.
DEFENSE
As usual, the calling card, and how VT will win most of their games. There are some holes, most notably a lack of depth at defensive end and a lack of experience at linebacker, but there’s talent enough to cover it up. As long as Jason Worilds doesn’t get hurt, they’ll have a pass rush, though Worilds will see plenty of double teams until Nekos Brown proves himself on the other side. The tackles are not playmakers – they didn’t have to be last year and probably won’t have to this year; again, unless Brown is ineffective. But they do open up the pass rush nicely for the ends.
Cody Grimm was not technically a starter at linebacker last year, but badly outperformed the actual starter, Cam Martin. Both will see time on the outside, but it’s Grimm you should watch out for. Unfortunately for Tech (so actually not that unfortunate at all) most of their experience is piled up at that one position. Jake Johnson was a special-teamer last year and didn’t play linebacker at all. Barquell Rivers has a little more experience at his middle linebacker spot, but he was backing up a 6th-year senior last year, so didn’t get in very much. Lot of inexperience to overcome here.
Not so much in the secondary. Rashad Carmichael is new to the starting role, but has already spent plenty of time in the rotation at cornerback and should fit pretty seamlessly into the job. Macho Harris got all the publicity last year, but Stephen Virgil intercepted just as many passes, making this a pretty dangerous bunch to throw against. Kam Chancellor has been a versatile player, starting at a new position every year, but he’s found a home at free safety, and he’ll be a more dangerous player now that he’s found a little stability.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Solid punting new kicker blah blah blah. Tech has other problems on their hands, like how to regain the special teams domination that TV announcers love so much. Last year they had more of their own punts blocked than they blocked opponents punts, one of them being that ECU gamebreaker. Their punt coverage was crummy too, allowing opponents more than 12 yards per return. The kickoff coverage was a lot better, but then, so was their opponents’. Tech was actually worse than we were at returning kicks, and that was a pretty lame part of our game last year.
OUTLOOK
The song remains the same here. VPISU slappies spend as much time crucifying their offensive coordinator as they do drooling over their defensive coordinator. There’s a reason for that. Sure, the defense has question marks, but Bud Foster usually manages to integrate new personnel into the defense pretty easily. Any game Tech loses this year will probably be pinned on the offense. I think the key is the two guys who get the ball first: Warren and Taylor. If the new center Warren can run-block and Taylor can throw, then the kooky national title aspirations the Hokies carry have a sliver of a chance. If neither happens, the division will go to UNC or GT instead and VT will have to content themselves with 9-3 and a trip to a non-New Year’s bowl.
Saturday, January 10, 2009
game preview: Virginia Tech
Virginia Cavaliers (7-5, 1-0) at Virginia Tech Hokies (9-5, 0-1)
Possible starters;
UVA:
PG: Sammy Zeglinski (12.0 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 3.8 apg)
SG: Calvin Baker (7.9 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 2.8 apg)
SF: Sylven Landesberg (18.3 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 2.4 apg)
PF: Mike Scott (11.3 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 0.9 apg)
C: Assane Sene (3.4 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 0.8 apg)
VT:
PG: Malcolm Delaney (16.4 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 4.1 apg)
SG: Dorenzo Hudson (3.7 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 1.5 apg)
SF: A.D. Vassallo (18.1 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 3.4 apg)
PF: Jeff Allen (13.6 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 1.7 apg)
C: Cheick Diakite (3.6 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 0.3 apg)
As linked to yesterday, we have a chance here to do something we haven't done since 1995: start an ACC season 2-0. Which probably means we'll lose, but hey. VT looks a lot like we do only with hideous uniforms. You might notice just by the stats above where the good players play, where the bad ones play, and where the tall skinny African guy plays.
By the stats, Tech's big three are collectively better than ours. They're also older, of course: Vassallo is a senior and we aren't too sure what happens when you reach four years of eligibility because not a whole lot of guys on this team have got that far. They have to be better though: Calvin Baker might not exactly be the best 2 guard in the ACC, but Dorenzo Hudson is almost assuredly the worst, and the Hokies get very little help from the bench.
Which happens to be our biggest advantage. Tech gets mainly token contributions from the subs, whereas we have guys who are reasonably useful. Jamil Tucker and Mustapha Farrakhan have mostly responded when given the minutes, and Mamadi Diane might just be heating up. Leitao must bring a game plan that includes repeatedly attacking the rim and getting the Hokies in foul trouble to force them to use their bench. Malcolm Delaney and Jeff Allen are rather prone to foul trouble - the Hokies might very well have upset Wisconsin in the Challenge if Allen hadn't fouled out. On defense, I don't care if they have to invent a basketball magnet and surreptitiously stick it to Dorenzo Hudson, but do what it takes to give him as many shots as possible. The more shots he takes, the better our chances at winning, because only like one in every four actually go in.
This is probably our last crack at a team roughly at our level on the road, except maybe late in February at NC State. It looks like Dave Leitao has done a pretty good job of finally erasing the culture of awful basketball away from Charlottesville, and this would be a great chance to prove it.
Possible starters;
UVA:
PG: Sammy Zeglinski (12.0 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 3.8 apg)
SG: Calvin Baker (7.9 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 2.8 apg)
SF: Sylven Landesberg (18.3 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 2.4 apg)
PF: Mike Scott (11.3 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 0.9 apg)
C: Assane Sene (3.4 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 0.8 apg)
VT:
PG: Malcolm Delaney (16.4 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 4.1 apg)
SG: Dorenzo Hudson (3.7 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 1.5 apg)
SF: A.D. Vassallo (18.1 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 3.4 apg)
PF: Jeff Allen (13.6 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 1.7 apg)
C: Cheick Diakite (3.6 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 0.3 apg)
As linked to yesterday, we have a chance here to do something we haven't done since 1995: start an ACC season 2-0. Which probably means we'll lose, but hey. VT looks a lot like we do only with hideous uniforms. You might notice just by the stats above where the good players play, where the bad ones play, and where the tall skinny African guy plays.
By the stats, Tech's big three are collectively better than ours. They're also older, of course: Vassallo is a senior and we aren't too sure what happens when you reach four years of eligibility because not a whole lot of guys on this team have got that far. They have to be better though: Calvin Baker might not exactly be the best 2 guard in the ACC, but Dorenzo Hudson is almost assuredly the worst, and the Hokies get very little help from the bench.
Which happens to be our biggest advantage. Tech gets mainly token contributions from the subs, whereas we have guys who are reasonably useful. Jamil Tucker and Mustapha Farrakhan have mostly responded when given the minutes, and Mamadi Diane might just be heating up. Leitao must bring a game plan that includes repeatedly attacking the rim and getting the Hokies in foul trouble to force them to use their bench. Malcolm Delaney and Jeff Allen are rather prone to foul trouble - the Hokies might very well have upset Wisconsin in the Challenge if Allen hadn't fouled out. On defense, I don't care if they have to invent a basketball magnet and surreptitiously stick it to Dorenzo Hudson, but do what it takes to give him as many shots as possible. The more shots he takes, the better our chances at winning, because only like one in every four actually go in.
This is probably our last crack at a team roughly at our level on the road, except maybe late in February at NC State. It looks like Dave Leitao has done a pretty good job of finally erasing the culture of awful basketball away from Charlottesville, and this would be a great chance to prove it.
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