game preview: Pittsburgh

Date/Time: Saturday, October 10; 12:30

TV: ACC Network, ESPN3

Record against the Panthers: 3-4

Last meeting: UVA 24, Pitt 19; 10/4/14, Charlottesville

Last week: UVA bye; Pitt 17, VT 13

Injury report: (italics - out for season)

Virginia:

OUT: LB Malcolm Cook, OG Sean Karl, OT Sadiq Olanrewaju, OG Ryan Doull, OT Jake Fieler, WR Andre Levrone, LB Jahvoni Simmons, OG Eric Tetlow

DOUBTFUL: CB Divante Walker

QUESTIONABLE: none

PROBABLE: none

Pittsburgh:

OUT: WR Tre Tipton, WR Chris Wuestner, RB James Conner, RB Rachid Ibrahim, OL Jaryd Jones-Smith, OL Alex Paulina

DOUBTFUL: none

QUESTIONABLE: none

PROBABLE: RB Darrin Hall, FB Colton Lively

The UVA game notes point out that this is UVA's latest conference opener since 1968.  So on the plus side of that, we got to keep a zero in one of our loss columns for quite a while.  This is the third year of ACC expansion as a result of the recent conference merry-go-round, and in each of them UVA has opened with an expansion team; 2013 and 2015 with Pitt and last year with Louisville.  Most of Mike London's teams have opened the ACC season 0-1 - last year being the only exception - and it'll be tough to start a streak in that regard as Pitt has a new growly defense run by defensive wizard Pat Narduzzi.  The Panthers held VT to 100 yards last week, the second-worst performance of the entire Frank Beamer era.

Last year, after beating Pitt, UVA was 4-2, 2-0.  The game column was about the fact that fanhood is perpetually about the good feelings that come from potential, and that team, at the time, still had a lot of potential.  They won, of course, one more game the rest of the year.  This team could conceivably - not likely, but conceivably - start 2-0 again.  If they're going to pile up wins, these next two games are their best chance.

-- UVA run offense vs. Pitt run defense

Top backs:
Taquan Mizzell: 46 carries, 157 yards, 3.4 ypc, 0 TDs
Albert Reid: 27 carries, 78 yards, 2.9 ypc, 1 TD

UVA offense:
93.75 yards/game, 2.98 yards/attempt
124th of 128 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

Pitt defense:
71.25 yards/game, 2.46 yards/attempt
8th of 128 (national), 2nd of 14 (ACC)

That looks like a really nasty matchup.  Oh, don't get me wrong - it is, because UVA's "power run game" is like repeatedly throwing yourself at locked doors up and down the neighborhood.  You might break through one or two of them, but mostly you'll just bash yourself around and people who watch you think you should be locked in a nuthouse for trying.

Point is, Pitt's stats look really, really good, but the secret to them is that most of that success is the result of putting nuclear pressure on opposing quarterbacks.  No, that's not good either, but if you take out all the QB rushing stats from Pitt's first four games, you get about 4.25 yards a carry.  Weirdly, the quality of competition has gone up from game to game (except that Iowa would almost definitely beat VT) but the run defense has gotten stingier and stingier.  Youngstown State's Jody Webb gashed the Panthers for 127 yards on 17 carries - that's 7.5 yards each time.

Fast forward to the VT game, where Pitt gave up a total of nine yards on the ground.  Tech barely tried to run the ball.  Brenden Motley had more carries than all of Tech's backs combined, some of which he even intended to do when he broke the huddle.  Motley had a carry of 22 yards and netted -14, so... damn.

With five linemen out for this game, three of them for the season, the cavalry isn't coming.  Mike London announced that Jay Whitmire would start, which is all you get for a ray of hope.  The season trend so far suggests that Pitt's defenders are getting more comfortable with what Narduzzi is asking of them.  Linebackers Nicholas Grigsby and Matt Galambos are racking up tackles, and Pitt has a weapon in 335-pound nose tackle Tyrique Jarrett.  Between Jarrett and Galambos the middle will be closed to UVA all day long.  UVA has to hope to break a few on the edge, or not at all.

-- UVA pass offense vs. Pitt pass defense

Quarterback:
Matt Johns: 76/121, 62.8%; 989 yards, 8 TDs, 6 INTs; 8.17 ypa, 143.4 rating

Top receivers:
Canaan Severin: 23 rec., 298 yards, 1 TD
Taquan Mizzell: 22 rec., 292 yards, 3 TDs
Evan Butts: 6 rec., 63 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
255.8 yards/game, 7.9 yards/attempt
36th of 128 (national), 2nd of 14 (ACC)

Pitt defense:
172.5 yards/game, 5.7 yards/attempt
21st of 128 (national), 5th of 14 (ACC)

Matt Johns had kind of a crap day against Boise State, but he's still among the ACC's stat leaders.  And even that lousy game gave him a single-game passer rating higher than Greyson Lambert's full season rating last year and David Watford's in 2013.  That connection with Canaan Severin is turning out really well.

But the laundry guys had better get the grass-stain bleach out.  Pitt has averaged more than four sacks a game, including seven against VT, and quarterbacks have had it miserable against them even when not getting dragged down with the ball in their hand.  Only Iowa's C.J. Beathard did not go backwards on the ground, and only Beathard completed more than half his passes.  Motley got picked off three times.

VT's O-line is horrible, and UVA is at least acceptable in pass protection.  Seven sacks allowed in four games - not bad.  Not wonderful, but it at least puts you in the top half of the country.  Narduzzi is expert at bringing pressure, though, so this is a big test to see if the line can at least hold their own long enough to let Johns make some plays.  As with every single game this year, it's UVA's only chance at victory.

-- Pitt run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Qadree Ollison: 60 carries, 427 yards, 7.1 ypc, 3 TDs
Darrin Hall: 29 carries, 90 yards, 3.1 ypc, 1 TD

Pitt offense:
168.25 yards/game, 4.15 yards/attempt
78th of 128 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
160.0 yards/game, 4.64 yards/attempt
94th of 128 (national), 11th of 14 (ACC)

I, you, and everybody thought that when James Conner went down for the season, Pitt lost most of what made them any good.  Qadree Ollison says otherwise with his 427 yards through the first four games of the season.

True, most of them came against Youngstown State.  And outside of him and Conner's YSU output, Pitt's run offense hasn't been much.  Darrin Hall has piled up his 90 yards in completely boring fashion, no more than nine at a time.  Nathan Peterman is even less of a running QB than the usurped Chad Voytik, which is saying a lot.  Pitt's running game is 100% bread and butter.

Still, it works - because like Conner, Ollison is a massive load to take down.  Weighing in at 230 pounds, he gives linebackers a very hard time because he's as big as they are.  He's been a workhorse, save for the Iowa game when he had only four carries - and that's probably as big a reason as any why they lost because he was still more effective than Hall.

Pitt isn't real tricky, which works in UVA's favor as one of the problems so far this year has been communication breakdowns.  That's been more of a pass-defense issue, but UVA's chances improve when they can just try and win some one-on-one battles.  Ollison will be trying to plunge straight ahead, so this is a really good benchmark kind of game for UVA.  If they can stop the Pitt attack, great - they can stop something.  If not, and if Ollison is allowed to gain momentum before crashing into the second level, it'll be hard to see what the Hoos can stop if the opponent brings any kind of O-line.

-- Pitt pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Nathan Peterman: 43/66, 65.2%; 538 yards, 4 TDs, 3 INTs; 8.15 ypa, 144.5 rating

Top receivers:
Tyler Boyd: 26 rec., 274 yards, 1 TD
J.P. Holtz: 7 rec., 102 yards, 2 TDs
Darrin Hall: 5 rec., 30 yards, 0 TDs

Pitt offense:
162.5 yards/game, 7.3 yards/game
T-58th of 128 (national), T-8th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
285.3 yards/game, 8.0 yards/game
108th of 128 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

Pittsburgh started the season with a bit of a quarterback competition between incumbent Chad Voytik and Tennessee transfer Nathan Peterman.  The last two games have made it abundantly clear: Peterman it is.  Voytik has been dumping it off too much and his numbers don't look horrendous, but the team doesn't move down the field.

Tyler Boyd has dominated the receiving stats for Pitt, as he's done the last two seasons.  Still one of the ACC's best.  Boyd isn't a huge big-play threat and hasn't scored yet this year, but he's open all the time and easily one of the toughest covers in the league.  Nobody else has double-digit receptions for Pitt, and the only one even close is tight end J.P. Holtz, a solid blocker with a bit of a receiving streak.  He's got seven catches, Darrin Hall has five, a few guys have four.  As with UVA's Severin, Boyd is the guy.

Peterman isn't very mobile, and UVA should be able to get to him a few times, but really they'll need to do more than they have been.  Coverage breakdowns (which have been frequent) will be deadly if they involve Boyd, because Peterman will always be looking in that direction.  This secondary is too talented to give UVA the worst pass defense in the league, and they've got to figure out their problems fast.

-- Favorability ratings

Run offense: 2.5
Pass offense: 4.5
Run defense: 3.5
Pass defense: 3

Average: 3.38

-- Outlook

On the one hand, the natural thing to ask here is: if the coaching staff is so lousy, what good is an extra week of practice?  The answer is that UVA is 4-2 after bye weeks in the London era (there were two last year.)  Pitt is not a bad opponent to start with, too.  The coaches are talking about simplifying things up and getting less scheme-y and more react-y.  That's a little annoying considering the defense is loaded with veterans who should've had plenty of time to learn the schemes, but Pitt brings kind of a Big Ten approach in stark contrast to Boise State.  That could help the defense get its footing back.

Another plus: likely low-scoring game combined with a UVA quarterback that can strike big at times.  It's the most natural thing in the world to be down on the Hoos' chances because of the last two games, because those games sucked donkey dong.  Rationally speaking, though, UVA has a shot in this one.

Rationally speaking, though, Pitt is also the better team, playing at home, and a Pat Narduzzi defense against a Steve Fairchild offense is what we're staring at here.

Final score: Pitt 20, UVA 10

-- Rest of the ACC

Byes: Louisville, North Carolina

NC State @ Virginia Tech - Fri. 8:00 - The Pack started 4-0 with four games against Fluffycakes the Kittycat and need to prove they can beat a legit team.  Problem is, that actual test might have to wait a week.

Duke @ Army - 12:00 - Good news for Army: their four losses are by a combined 16 points.  Bad news: one of them was to Fordham.

Wake Forest @ Boston College - 3:00 - The 8-point loss to FSU might've been Wake's high-water mark this season.

Georgia Tech @ Clemson - 3:30 - Once hailed as an outside playoff contender, GT is still very talented but at serious risk of not going bowling this season.

Syracuse @ South Florida - 3:30 - On the other hand, Syracuse could very well get there, which would be very weird.

Miami @ Florida State - 8:00 - Miami hasn't won this game since 2009, which is one of Al Golden's greatest sins, but FSU has been unconvincing in victory these past couple weeks.

electricity shortage

Three games down without our Wooden candidate, three wins.  Not real pretty wins.  Kind of scrappy ones against teams probably not going to the tournament.  But, wins.

I'd say it's still unanswered, to what extent this team misses Justin Anderson.  There's no doubt they need him back.  But would those games still have been close and scruffy without him?  Anderson's absence isn't the reason the three-point shooters missed a whole bunch of open looks.  In the NC State and Wake games, they went 4-for-23, which is 17%.  It's not like they missed because Anderson wasn't on the floor, and it's small coincidence that the Pitt game had a more comfortable margin of victory and the Hoos shot 5-for-13, which is a very acceptable 38.5%.

On the other hand, would Anderson have had a better chance of hitting?  Or would the shot have been a more makeable one, a layup perhaps, if Anderson was in the game?  That'll never be answered.

The two Louisville games are exactly four weeks apart, so if Simba's a really fast healer, he'll be back for the second one.  Maybe it's the nagging paranoid in me, because that part of you never really goes away if you root for UVA, but the rest of the schedule seems booby-trapped.  FSU is actually the least of our concerns, I think.  Wake will get us at their place and no doubt they'll be awfully confident, seein's how they just almost beat us at ours.  VT is gonna be primed as well, though fortunately that's at home.  Syracuse is no easy place to win at.  And it was after Anderson went down that Louisville mounted a comeback; that one's a return road visit too.

At stake, besides tournament seeding and the chance to add a regular season title to the rafters, is avoiding bracketologist talk about whether UVA can be as legit as ever without Anderson.  The committee does take injuries into account, both positively and negatively.  If a guy misses time and then comes back, your losses during that time get a kinder eye.  If a guy won't be ready for the tournament, they penalize you.  Optimistically, I think Anderson will be back for the NCAAs, but you never know.  But if the winning streak continues, sans the team's most electric player, you can't ask for a better setup.

**************************************************

-- With about 47 seconds left, NC State fouled Brogdon; this was the very best of all possible outcomes.  Coaches aren't big on quick shots to try and get two-for-one on possessions at the end of a half (though this is a strategy mainly for the end of the first half; the second is too wild-cardy) so UVA was going to hold the ball as long as possible.  One likely outcome of that strategy is to not score and give NC State the chance to tie with a minimum of 12 seconds to work with.  Instead, UVA's best free-throw shooter got to head to the line with a chance to put UVA up two scores, and the Hoos were guaranteed another possession.

-- The announcers had this fixation on "free throw percentage in conference play."  I guess that's useful as a proxy for how you're shooting lately, but it's otherwise utterly nonsensical - it's not like you need to adjust free-throw shooting percentages for the quality of opponent.

-- How about Evan Nolte's drive and dish to Gill?  As with the Anderson miss against Duke, it felt like a game-turning play.  I think it's because Nolte is usually a bit less than assertive on offense, and is the player on the team who least resembles a smooth rim-driving point guard (and yes that includes Mike Tobey) so the sight of his bad-Hawaiian-shirt-wearing self making like Isiah Thomas was jarring enough to turn the game on its head.  And as it turned out, that was the last lead change of the game.

-- Center-court logos are trending in the obnoxiously huge direction, and never more so at NC State.  I know it's a classic old logo and all, but it is in fact the ugliest friggin' court in the whole country.  And since the whole midcourt line is almost completely obscured, it ought to be banned.

-- In case you've forgotten why everyone thinks Carolina media is the most shameless, shilling, and biased bunch of wretches in the whole country, enjoy this small passage from Stephen Schramm from the Fayetteville Observer:

The replays showed that Nolte had collided with N.C. State’s Caleb Martin. Much to Wolfpack coach Mark Gottfried’s dismay, the crew decided to call a flagrant foul on Martin.

Yeah, totally out of nowhere, I'm sure.  Much to Stephen Schramm's dismay, the cops decide he's at fault when a tree collides with his car.  The definition of a flagrant foul is "excessive and/or unnecessary contact" and plowing Nolte clearly qualifies.

-- Shifting gears to the Wake game: Last week I wrote about rewarding the big guy making the hustle play, and this week it happened again: Darion Atkins brick-walled a Wake defender trying to keep up with London Perrantes, and was rewarded by Perrantes with an easy layup.  The announcers did a nice job of pointing out the communication between Atkins and Perrantes on that play.

-- It's interesting that Tony didn't make an adjustment - or didn't appear to, anyway, though you never know what you miss - as Schnozz Mitoglou kept pounding away from the three-point line off of a simple pick-and-pop.  I think it's a philosophy thing - a gamble that a freshman on the road is less likely to keep making those than the ballhandler is to punish you for getting away from your hard hedge.

-- Malcolm's dunk.  MALCOLM'S.  DUNK.

-- As badly as Pitt and Wake shot free throws, I can't help but wonder if the students haven't figured out a distraction routine that actually works.

-- Much like with the Notre Dame game last year, the Hoos did a nice job of finding a tendency in the Pitt zone and attacking the bejeezus out of it.  And on one play, a different attack, but a really, really nice job by Isaiah Wilkins to set up an open shot.  Whether on purpose or just playing through the flow of the game, I don't know, but Wilkins did a great job of holding the ball just long enough to suck in the defense and then kick it back to the point, where Perrantes wasted no time finding the open shooter.  Pity Nolte missed the shot, but it was picture-perfect passing.

-- Does anyone else besides me think that Infiniti commercial is incredibly stupid?  Do people routinely make a habit of just blithely backing out the driveway and missing the BIG FKIN' YELLOW SCHOOL BUS rumbling down the road?  Are school buses difficult to see?  Is it hard to see a car coming down the totally empty parking lot lane?  The look on school bus lady's face is priceless: "Oh wow, if it hadn't been for those genius engineers at Infiniti, I would've gotten my two children messily killed in a school bus accident!"  Don't worry, honey: with observation skills like those, Junior and Juniorette will have their own permanent 6 x 3 plot any day now.

Probably like 1/3 of commercials on TV say the same thing: "Our customers are idiots.  If you're an idiot, you can be one of our customers too."

-- With the win over Pitt, UVA mathematically clinches a single bye in the ACC tournament, more than three weeks before it starts.

-- Yes, I read Myron Medcalf's moronic scribblings, and there's enough to say about that that it's worth a post all its own.  Wednesday night.

pitt stop

When you have a crappy football team (or any kind of crappy team, I guess) the smallest things turn into "not since" stats.  This past basketball season was crammed to the gills with not-since stats, and most of them ended up being Ralph Sampson-related.  Now it's football's turn.  Baby steps first - did you know, the last time UVA was 2-0 in the ACC was 2009?  Frightening, because that season sucked so bad it got a coach fired.  Also frightening, because it means Mike London's never done it.  (In fact, he'd never been so much as 1-0.)

So, for once, the bye week (well, the first of two) comes at a fantastic time: we get to be 2-0 for two whole weeks.  See, fanhood belies the old saying about second place being the first loser.  Nobody really believes that.  If they did, most would find something else to do.  The behavior of fans means we actually subscribe to the notion that it's not the destination, it's the journey.  Winning championships is great, but fanhood is really about the belief that you might do so later.

So, halfway through the season, here we sit with two whole weeks to enjoy a zero.  I can definitely live with that.  I'm perfectly willing to accept that this team could start throwing large crooked numbers into that column pretty quickly, but what keeps you and me and the rest of this fanbase going is that they might not.  And if this sounds like what I wrote last week and maybe the week before that and before that, well, yeah.... because the simple fact that it continues to be the truth is enough to keep the whole program afloat.

Bullety points:

-- UVA is the only Coastal team that got no votes for first place, and Georgia Tech was my own personal choice for dead last.  So of course those are the only two conference-undefeated Coastal teams.  I want us to win for all the obvious reasons but also because the no-first-place-votes thing is funny.

-- A 2-10 team that starts the next season 4-2 is full of surprises, but how about Matt Johns's wheels as one of the biggest?  Even if you take away his 42-yard scamper against Kent State, he's still averaging more yards per carry than any of the running backs, and that's with sacks included.

-- I had enough time during the Miles Gooch WR pass to realize that the pass was headed for Zach Swanson and to think, before it nestled into his hands, "please please catch this one."  Tight End U is not what it once was.  Impressively, that play worked even though the whole damn stadium and every eye on TV knew Gooch was going to pass the ball as soon as it hit his hands.

-- A huge, huge pet peeve of mine is plays like regular options and toss sweeps that go to the short side of the field.  When you're trying to get wide, why cut the play off before it has a chance to develop?  That's entirely on the OC.  On Saturday, one play in particular stood out in this regard - but for once, in a good way.  That was a Kevin Parks pitchout on the second touchdown drive; Parks picked up an extra 5-7 yards because the play went wide side, and it was during those extra yards that he delivered the stiff-arm to Pitt's Terrish Webb that pissed Webb off enough to hand UVA another 15 yards, post-whistle.  Stop going short side, OC's.  You'll thank me.

Edit: I just went back and read my review of this same Pitt game last year, which had nothing nice to say about the offense and deployed Ian Malcolm and triceratops poop.  And the phrase, "God kills a baby angel every time an offensive coordinator runs a toss sweep or option play to the short side of the field."  We can has.... progress from the coaching staff?  I was never as down on Steve Fairchild as most people, but neither was I wildly impressed; regardless, he's really starting to earn his pay these days.

-- I think I'm getting officially disappointed in Taquan Mizzell.  The play just before that one was a screen to Mizzell, and a pretty well-executed one that ought to've picked up the first down and about 12-14 yards.  But Mizzell went the wrong side of Andre Levrone's excellent block, which he's been far too prone to doing.  Smoke'll never be a five-star running back unless he improves his vision.

-- Helmetzz.  I didn't hate them - in fact, they were awfully unobtrusive (though, probably wouldn't have been with the regular blue unis) which made me ask, what's the fuss?  OK, I guess the players like them, they got to see them up close and handle them and all that, but they also generated a lot of "wow, really sharp!" comments on message boards, which I don't get.  They just looked kinda.... there.  The lights set them off, which was kinda cool, probably better than in the daytime, but I don't think anyone would've known these were different unless they looked real close or were told about them.  And no, this is not an entreaty to do something even nuttier and wilder next time.

-- I don't know if "learning to win" is a thing, but if it is, it sure as hell applies to this team.  As in, it's something they'll need to do.  Pitt is a huge maybe of a bowl team and most ACC squads won't let you go dry for the whole second half and walk away with a win.

Prediction review time!

- UVA plays only one quarterback, barring injury or blowout.  True that.  It's getting so we might not ever know when Greyson Lambert's ankle is healed.  Johns is doing awfully well.  He only completed nine passes, which I was shocked to see because the eye test said he played great.  But then, the run-pass balance was incredibly skewed - 43 run plays to 17 pass attempts.  And why not, when Kevin Parks can pile up almost 170 yards?  (Another not-since stat, by the way; the last Hoo RB to top 150 was Ced Peerman in 2008.)  At any rate, Johns might've only completed a handful of passes, but you look, for example, at the swing pass that scored Khalek Shepherd.  Anything other than a perfect, in-stride throw, and UVA is kicking a field goal there.

- James Conner averages between four and five yards a carry.  Dammit, the defense was just slightly better than I gave them credit for; Conner ended up with 3.95.  I could round and call it four, but I won't.

- The UVA passing game generates more than 6.5 yards per attempt.  Thank you, Gooch to Swanson.  And thank you me for remembering I was evaluating the whole matchup and not just one quarterback.  Matt Johns came nowhere near 6.5, but the passing game got a boost to 6.7 thanks to that one trick play.

- The UVA defense gets no more than two non-sack TFLs, matching or setting a new low for the year.  Again I just slightly underestimate the defense, which got three.

- Whoever starts at QB for UVA completes at least 65% of his passes.  Nope.

Two out of five this week, which brings the updated totals to:

13-for-29 on specifics (44.8%)
4-1 straight up
2-1-1 ATS

Lots of bettors watching that two-point conversion, I'm thinking.

Senior Seasons gets pushed to tomorrow.  No game preview this week, duh, so it'll be replaced with a midseason review, being as we have perfect timing for it.

game preview: Pittsburgh

Date/Time: Saturday, October 4; 7:30

TV: ESPN3, RSN

Record against the Panthers: 2-4

Last meeting: Pitt 14, UVA 3; 9/28/13, Pittsburgh

Last weekend: UVA 45, KSU 13; Akron 21, Pitt 10

Line: UVA by 5

Injury report:

Virginia:

OUT: C Jackson Matteo, OT Jay Whitmire
DOUBTFUL: None
QUESTIONABLE: QB Greyson Lambert, CB Demetrious Nicholson
PROBABLE: OT Sadiq Olanrewaju

Pittsburgh:

OUT: DL Duke McLean, OL Aaron Reese, DL Ejuan Price, LB Devon Porchia, OL Artie Rowell
DOUBTFUL: None
QUESTIONABLE: None
PROBABLE: None

Last year's game against the Panthers was, unbeknownst to us at the time, a full-blown cariacature of the season.  The UVA defense was astoundingly good, piling up three turnovers and seven sacks and limiting Pitt to exactly eight rushing yards.  The offense and special teams were even more astoundingly inept; turnovers in our own red zone led to the two Pitt scores.  It also happened to be the first of nine losses in a row, ten if you count overlapping seasons.

This year the meaning of the game is known beforehand.  It's a big one.  UVA has a bye week on the way, which means a chance to sit awfully pretty at 2-0 in the conference and get two weeks of practice for a high-powered Duke offense.  There are two other 1-0 teams in the Coastal, and since one of them is Pitt, a win here would help make the top a little lonelier place.  It's a night game, the team is wearing special helmetzz, and temporary control of the Coastal Conference is on the line.

-- UVA run offense vs. Pitt run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 75 carries, 258 yards, 3.4 ypc, 2 TDs
Taquan Mizzell: 39 carries, 164 yards, 4.2 ypc, 2 TDs

UVA offense:
167.4 yards/game, 4.02 yards/attempt
79th of 128 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

Pitt defense:
106.8 yards/game, 3.16 yards/attempt
30th of 128 (national), 4th of 14 (ACC)

As usual, the UVA run game continues to be minimally adequate, which is probably its identity for the rest of the year.  Kevin Parks will continue to do occasional feats of badassery, like scoring a touchdown while his head is twisted the wrong way thanks to a vicious facemasking, but he doesn't get the blocking he needs.

Pitt's run defense has been schizophrenic.  They did a very nice job limiting Boston College's powerful run game, mostly suppressing the Eagles except for one 51-yard burst.  Last week, though, featured a piteous effort against the Akron Zips; no rushing powerhouse, they, yet Akron's running back Conor Hundley piled up 148 yards on 19 carries for a 7.8 average.

The Panthers don't have a defensive star this year; very fortunate for the Hoos' offense given the way Aaron Donald dominated everything within sight last year.  They've replaced stardom with pretty good.  As in, Anthony Gonzalez and Todd Thomas are pretty good linebackers, Darryl Render is a pretty good DT, and so forth.  Nobody you'll have nightmares about, but UVA's inability to find a permanent solution on the O-line is still not a good enough situation to consistently take advantage.

So, expect the Hoos to spin their wheels a little, which is sort of the usual deal.  I'm more inclined to think the Akron game was an aberration than the standard.  If the UVA coaches find something on film the Zips were doing, great, but it's hard to assume that game defines the Pitt defense when they've also flexed some muscle against Boston College.  I don't expect anything spectacular to happen here for either offense or defense, and this matchup is unlikely to determine anything at all.

-- UVA pass offense vs. Pitt pass defense

Quarterbacks:
Greyson Lambert: 63/97, 64.9%; 564 yards, 2 TDs, 4 INTs; 5.81 yards/attempt
Matt Johns: 51/86, 59.3%; 594 yards, 6 TDs, 4 INTs; 6.91 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Canaan Severin: 20 rec., 225 yards, 2 TDs
Taquan Mizzell: 19 rec., 86 yards, 0 TDs
Miles Gooch: 14 rec., 178 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
240.6 yards/game, 6.40 yards/attempt
89th of 128 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)

Pitt defense:
158.4 yards/game, 6.0 yards/attempt
24th of 128 (national), 5th of 14 (ACC)

Once again we're left in the lurch in the quarterback situation.  Chances are Mike London already knows what's going to happen, and the "questionable" label for Greyson Lambert is just so he can have plausible deniability about it being labeled a "game-time decision."  I don't know what he's thinking this week, but I'll start off by guessing there still won't be a platoon.

Pitt's safeties are the core of their pass defense, as Terrish Webb and Ray Vinopal have each intercepted two passes this year.  The cornerbacks aren't real fearsome, and Pitt has managed 11 sacks this year - not bad - but as with the rest of the aspects of defense, those are spread out among a lot of players, without one real terror in the group.  Pitt has solid-looking yardage stats on defense, but that's largely a function of having played mostly passing offenses that don't crack the top 90 in the country.  The best offense they've played is 83rd-ranked Iowa, and they let C.J. Beathard come in off the bench and go 7-for-8 - and Beathard followed that up with a 17-for-37 performance against powerhouse Purdue.

Point is, Pitt will basically let you be who you are in the passing game.  UVA doesn't light anything up, but the Hoos are improving in this area as Steve Fairchild gets a little more comfortable with his quarterbacks, and the QBs get more comfortable with the playbook and their receivers.  The Hoos should be able to continue slowly climbing the rankings ladder here.  As with the run game, nothing spectacular, but in this case, probably effective.

-- Pitt run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
James Conner: 135 carries, 791 yards, 5.9 ypc, 9 TDs
Chad Voytik: 33 carries, 185 yards, 5.6 ypc, 1 TD

Pitt offense:
269.2 yards/game, 5.56 yards/attempt
26th of 128 (national), 6th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
86.6 yards/game, 2.59 yards/attempt
7th of 128 (national), 2nd of 14 (ACC)

This is where the fun starts.  James Conner is a sledgehammer.  Win or lose, nobody's really stopped him, though Akron slowed him down considerably.  No longer splitting carries, the 250-pound Conner has relegated all competitors to the sidelines and almost equaled his yardage from last year in just five games.  Pitt lost starting center Artie Rowell to a torn ACL in the BC game, but it hasn't really slowed Conner down much.

So there's not a whole lot of analysis required here.  Pitt's not very deceptive.  They do have a few changes of pace, but mostly, the backups got their stats in the laugher against Delaware that opened up the Panthers' season.  The one wrinkle is that Chad Voytik is a reasonably mobile quarterback and can hurt you with his legs a little bit, but UVA's played that game before too.

The main idea is that Pitt will just line up Conner and see what you've got.  He's bigger than most linebackers, has to be gang-tackled, and falls forward all the time, and Pitt's content to let him just to do his thing.  That makes this a pretty interesting matchup for UVA, because that could go one of two ways - either it neutralizes the decision-making skills of our linebackers and turns the game into a physical rather than mental matchup, or else it turns the Pitt offense into child's play for such veteran players to defend.  I lean toward the latter, and think Conner's ypc average dips into the fours.

-- Pitt pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Chad Voytik: 68/113, 60.2 %; 754 yards, 6 TDs, 4 INTs; 6.67 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Tyler Boyd: 27 rec., 365 yards, 4 TDs
Manasseh Garner: 12 rec., 139 yards, 1 TD
Ronald Jones: 6 rec., 59 yards, 0 TDs

Pitt offense:
154.8 yards/game, 6.62 yards/attempt
84th of 128 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
248.2 yards/game, 6.82 yards/attempt
58th of 128 (national), 8th of 14 (ACC)

This isn't a big part of the game, because Pitt's play-calling is slanted like crazy toward the run.  That's part of the reason that UVA has five players who have more catches than Pitt's second-most productive receiver, Manasseh Garner.  The other reason is that other than Tyler Boyd, Chad Voytik's options aren't that appealing.  Garner's not bad, but other than that - shrug.

Voytik, for his part, is awfully similar to UVA's quarterbacks: a redshirt sophomore still getting up to speed.  He hasn't been bad, but he's also thrown one interception in each of the last four games, and too often in the Pitt passing game it's Boyd or nothing.  Boyd, granted, is a really tough cover, and you generally have to double-team him, permanently shade a safety, whatever you feel like doing to help out the cornerback assigned to him.  Quin Blanding will probably have that responsibility.  But the point is, you can do that, and you don't have to worry too badly about the rest of the gang.

The question for UVA is Demetrious Nicholson, who remains banged up and not out of the question to just shut 'er down and try again next year.  I'd love to have a healthy Nicholson for defending Boyd, but we can't always get what we want.  Our actual advantage will come in the pass rush, because Voytik hasn't seen one like UVA's.  His mobility will mitigate that, but not completely.

Favorability ratings

UVA run offense: 4
UVA run defense: 5.5
UVA pass offense: 5.5
UVA pass defense: 6

Overall: 5.25

Outlook

I did say the BYU game would be low-scoring, and then it got kind of out of hand, so the anything-can-happen caveat applies, but this too looks like a defensive struggle.  It obviously was last year, and the betting sharps agree, setting the over/under to one of the lowest around the country.

The game will probably hinge on whether UVA can stop James Conner, because Voytik isn't likely to win this without help from the run game unless Boyd breaks free for a huge long score or two.  I think you have to like the odds of that - but without being too cocky.  These are pretty evenly matched teams.  I expect Pitt to be nice and pissed off after losing to Akron, and as long as UVA can respond to that - the night-game atmosphere should help - the Hoos have a small but tangible upper hand in the game.

Predictions

- UVA plays only one quarterback, barring injury or blowout.

- James Conner averages between four and five yards a carry.

- The UVA passing game generates more than 6.5 yards per attempt

- The UVA defense gets no more than two non-sack TFLs, matching or setting a new low for the year.

- Whoever starts at QB for UVA completes at least 65% of his passes.

Final score: UVA 20, Pitt 14

Rest of the ACC

Byes: Duke, Boston College

Louisville @ Syracuse, 7:00 Fri - Syracuse is the only team not to have played an ACC game yet, and Louisville is the only team to have played three.

Virginia Tech @ North Carolina, 12:30 - This should be fun - VT can't move the ball on anyone and UNC can't stop anyone.

NC State @ Clemson, 3:30 - Classic hangover game for NC State, which had a chance to pull off the upset last week and couldn't finish.

Wake Forest @ Florida State, 3:30 - FSU has been hearing lately how maybe it shouldn't be the #1 team, and will take it out on poor Wake.

Miami @ Georgia Tech, 7:30 - Let's see if Georgia Tech's 4-0 start is for real.

2014 season preview: Pittsburgh Panthers

Schedule:

8/30: Delaware
9/5: @ Boston College (Fri.)
9/13: @ Florida Int'l
9/20: Iowa
9/27: Akron
10/4: @ Virginia
10/11: BYE
10/16: Virginia Tech (Thu.)
10/25: Georgia Tech
11/1: Duke
11/8: BYE
11/15: @ North Carolina
11/22: Syracuse
11/29: @ Miami

Skip: Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, NC State, Wake Forest

2013 results:

Florida State: L, 41-13
New Mexico: W, 49-27
Duke: W, 58-55
Virginia: W, 14-3
Virginia Tech: L, 19-9
Old Dominion: W, 35-24
Navy: L, 24-21
Georgia Tech: L, 21-10
Notre Dame: W, 28-21
North Carolina: L, 34-27
Syracuse: W, 17-16
Miami: L, 41-31
Bowling Green: W, 30-27 (Motor City Bowl)

Record: 7-6 (3-5); 6th, Coastal

Projected starters:

QB: Chad Voytik (rSo.)
RB: James Conner (So.)
RB: Isaac Bennett (Sr.)
WR: Tyler Boyd (So.)
WR: Manasseh Garner (5Sr.)
TE: J.P. Holtz (Jr.)
LT: Adam Bisnowaty (rSo.)
LG: Dorian Johnson (So.)
C: Artie Rowell (rJr.)
RG: Matt Rotheram (5Sr.)
RT: T.J. Clemmings (5Sr.)

DE: David Durham (5Sr.)
DT: Darryl Render (Jr.)
DT: Khaynin Mosley-Smith (rJr.)
DE: Shakir Soto (So.)
WLB: Todd Thomas (5Sr.)
MLB: Matt Galambos (So.)
SLB: Anthony Gonzalez (5Sr.)
CB: Lafayette Pitts (rJr.)
CB: Reggie Mitchell (rSo.)
SS: Terrish Webb (So.)
FS: Ray Vinopal (5Sr.)

K: Chris Blewitt (So.)
P: Ryan Winslow (rFr.)

(Italics indicate departed player.)

Coach: Paul Chryst (3rd season)

Media prediction: 6th, Coastal

All-ACC:

2013 1st team: DT Aaron Donald
2013 2nd team: WR Tyler Boyd
2013 3rd team: WR Devin Street
2013 HM: OG Matt Rotheram, S Ray Vinopal, S Jason Hendricks
2014 preseason: none

I tried to think of something worth pointing out about Pittsburgh's season last year, but the truth is, it's hard to think of a more milquetoast entrance to a conference than Pitt's ACC debut.  A 6-6 record, nowhere near the division race, and a fourth-tier bowl against a MAC school; you suspect Pitt fans will completely forget 2013 without even meaning to.  The media seems to have so as well, picking the Panthers sixth in this year's Coastal race - by default, one gets the feeling.

-- Offense

There was, after all, one notable thing about the Panthers' offensive performance last year: the breakout season had by freshman receiver Tyler Boyd.  This was predicted by quite a few people, but maybe not even to the level of the 1,100 yard season Boyd produced.  As star senior Devin Street wore down with nagging injuries and finally sat the last two games, Boyd only continued to shine.  He eventually broke Pitt freshman receiving records held by Larry Fitzgerald, and the ACC receptions record for a freshman previously owned by Sammy Watkins.

Boyd could probably put up more terrifically gaudy numbers all on his own, but Pitt still needs some more help for new QB starter Chad Voytik.  Voytik has always been the presumed heir to the job, but has yet to really grab it with both hands; the job was announced as his only just today.  About the only other proven receiving options Voytik has are Manasseh Garner and tight end J.P. Holtz.  Holtz is a dependable short-yardage player but nowhere near a big-play threat.  Garner has played some H-back and tight end in the past and his main value is his flexibility - again, not going to stretch the field.  Pitt will need some options to step up from the bottom of the depth chart, and may once again turn to a true freshman, this year in the form of heavily recruited four-star Adonis Jennings.

Boyd wasn't the only freshman to impress for Pitt last year; freshman running back James Conner led the team in rushing yards - by two, 799 to 797 over now-senior Isaac Bennett.  Neither are blazing home-run hitters, but Conner is a beast of a back at 250 pounds, and averaged 5.5 yards a carry last year, probably 5.4 of them after contact.  Bennett has some pass-catching skills and will probably expand on his 10 receptions last year as a third-down back.

After what looked like some shakiness going into last year, Pitt maintained some quality continuity on the line.  There are high hopes for sophomore LT Adam Bisnowaty, who would've started the whole season but for a back injury that cost him the final four games.  Right guard is the other strength of the line, where Matt Rotheram picked up some all-ACC votes last year, and is entering his third season as a full-time starter.  At RT, T.J. Clemmings returns after a full season of starting that followed a move from defense, and center Artie Rowell took control of the job late in camp last season and started all 13 games as well.  Only left guard does not see a returning full-time starter, but Dorian Johnson did start three games as a true freshman last year and is ready for the job.  It looks like a solid starting five; Pitt will need to stay healthy, though, as the second string of the depth chart is populated almost exclusively with redshirt freshman, the only exception being the almost equally inexperienced Gabe Roberts - a kick-protection guy for three games last year before getting hurt.

Pitt's offense will be dangerous as long as Boyd is running loose, but there's reason to be a little skeptical of the quarterback play they'll get, and other than Boyd, the O simply lacks playmakers.  Players like Conner and Bennett are good, useful players, but don't strike much fear into the opposition.  And while the starting five on the line did stay pretty steady barring injuries - a good sign for the most part - they were also atrocious in pass protection.  Voytik is somewhat more mobile than the painfully slow Tom Savage, which should help; still, 3.3 sacks allowed per game is awful.  Good teams will likely shut this offense down, especially those with a working plan for Boyd, but the Panthers will find their share of success too.

-- Defense

The Panthers are going to have to adjust to life after Aaron Donald here.  Donald was a freakishly good defensive tackle, with over half of his 59 tackles coming behind the line of scrimmage.  The middle of the line is all-new this year, with Darryl Render and Khaynin Mosley-Smith having rotated in during a number of games but started only a couple here and there.  Three-tech Render has been productive when on the field, but Mosley-Smith's experience is limited, and he sat out the entire 2013 season after having been caught up in a drug bust during the offseason that year.

David Durham is a returning starter at defensive end, but wasn't terribly productive last year, and the player to watch is probably Shakir Soto.  Soto increased his productivity as time went on last year, and found himself starting the bowl game against Bowling Green.  Pitt will be very, very thin at end; they'd been hoping to count on veteran Ejuan Price, who would've been a quality member of the rotation if not an outright starter, but tore a pectoral in the summer and was lost for the year.  Pretty much the only other player with any experience is Devin Cook, a semi-regular backup in 2012 who missed most of 2013 with a knee injury.

Linebacker, at least, is in much better shape, as Pitt brings back veteran OLBs Anthony Gonzalez and Todd Thomas.  These two had 79 and 72 tackles last year, respectively; not spectacular, but highly dependable.  The Panthers also broke in Matt Galambos in the middle last year, starting him in two games as a true freshman, and they've declared him ready for the job this season.  Depth is a little better here, too, though backup Will linebacker Nicholas Grigsby may move up to DE full time given the issues up front.  Grigsby is undersized for DE but speedy, and could be a major boost for the pass rush when in the game.

Cornerback is another place where Pitt faces a depth crisis.  Paul Chryst suspended Titus Howard for the season earlier this month, and his original replacement, Trenton Coles, recently announced his transfer from the program.  Coles was handed the job almost on a silver platter and couldn't get a grip on it, which doesn't say much for the next guys up.  Lafayette Pitts is the lone returning starter at corner, and he didn't intercept a single pass in 2013 and was only credited with four PDs.  Wisconsin transfer Reggie Mitchell appears to be the front-runner for the job now, but he's receiving a challenge from the diminutive Avonte Maddox, a low three-star true freshman who picked Pitt over Cincy, Purdue, and a handful of MAC offers.

This leaves Terrish Webb as the only real contender for the strong safety job; like Soto, Webb saw his playing time increase as the year went on and earned a starting role in the bowl game.  Webb is taking over for one of the conference's better safeties in Jason Hendricks, so there's likely to be a dropoff in productivity here.  Free safety Ray Vinopal, at least, is a solid presence at a place where that's vital to have.  Vinopal was the team's top pass defender last year and forced two fumbles as well.

This defense is a great reason for the media to vote Pitt down near the bottom of the Coastal.  Vinopal is a good player and Soto carries some promise, and the linebackers are at least decent.  But major depth issues at DE and even worse ones at CB promise to make this a really awful pass defense.  Vinopal can only do so much, and he's not really a star.

-- Special teams

The unfortunately named Chris Blewitt took the kicking job last year and did a solid job, hitting 5 of 6 from outside 40 yards.  More consistency - which he has plenty of time to learn - and he should become one of the top kickers in the conference.  Pitt is spending a scholarship on redshirt freshman Ryan Winslow, so he's the clear favorite for the punting job.  Blewitt and Winslow are each other's backups, as well.

-- Outlook

I think this offense is likely to be halfway decent.  In a good way.  Voytik was the #4 pro-style QB in his class, and if the offense is short on playmakers, it does at least have one big-time star in the making and what should be an improved offensive line.  The defense though.... it probably would've been workable at full strength, but problems abound at two key positions and there's not one single player you look at and say "that guy's a star."  Vinopal might be the defense's best, and it's hard to influence things as a free safety.  With some respectable linebacking play and potential at DT, it ought to be OK against the run, but the cornerbacks have the makings of a unit that's ready to get torched.  The Panthers are likely to struggle to reach six wins this year, and I don't think they'll make it unless the defense surprises.

game preview: Pitt

Date/Time: Saturday, March 15; 1:00

TV: ESPN

Record against the Panthers: 8-3

Last meeting: UVA 48, Pitt 45; 2/2/14, Pittsburgh

Last game: UVA 64, FSU 51 (3/14); Pitt 80, UNC 75 (3/14)

KenPom:

Tempo:
UVA: 61.2 (#345)
Pitt: 64.2 (#283)

Offense:
UVA: 114.4 (#23)
Pitt: 115.9 (#15)

Defense:
UVA: 90.1 (#4)
FSU: 97.1 (#46)

Pythag:
UVA: .9397 (#4)
FSU: .8852 (#16)

Projected lineups:

Virginia:

PG: London Perrantes (5.1 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 3.8 apg)
SG: Malcolm Brogdon (12.4 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 2.7 apg)
SF: Joe Harris (11.6 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 2.3 apg)
PF: Akil Mitchell (7.0 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.3 apg)
C: Mike Tobey (6.5 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 0.3 apg)

Pittsburgh:

PG: James Robinson (7.7 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 4.0 apg)
SG: Cameron Wright (10.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 2.7 apg)
SF: Lamar Patterson (17.8 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 4.4 apg)
PF: Michael Young (6.1 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.0 apg)
PF: Talib Zanna (12.6 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 0.5 apg)

Whee!  Getting rid of long streaks of futility is fun.  Problem with success, though, is it leaves you wanting even more.  In the spirit of "haven't done X since Y", it's been even longer since UVA has played in the ACC championship game.  One year longer, actually; the last championship game appearance was 1994.

Standing in the way is Pittsburgh, last seen in February.  Despite the underachieving label, they remain a dangerous team, as UNC found out by letting the Panthers get out to a stupid-huge lead that the Heels tried but failed to overcome.  After the last meeting, Pitt fans claimed their team hadn't brought its "A game" and UVA fans scoffed at the perceived lack of credit being given to our own team.  The benefit of six weeks of hindsight shows there was probably an element of truth to both sides of that.  UVA turned out to be a damn good team after all, and Pitt can play better than they did.

-- UVA on offense

Joey Hoops didn't start getting called that because he's the white Kobe Bryant or anything.  He got that nickname because he's a step-up player.  It's a nickname that perfectly fits a guy who does big-time things in big-time games, like shrugging off a mini shooting slump to score 20 points in the ACC tourney.

UVA won that FSU game despite poop-level shooting from Malcolm Brogdon, which should make the Panthers pretty nervous.  And 64 points is a pretty nice total for a 56-possession game.  The other player that helped out the most in the scoring department: Anthony Gill.  Good news going into the Pitt game, because if Pitt can be said to have an Achilles heel on defense, it's their size down low.  Gill scored just one point in the last Pitt matchup, but the hot hand down low was Akil Mitchell, shooting 5-for-7 and grabbing nine boards.

Someone, then, is likely to have a good game down low.  Pitt has four players who can conceivably be called power forwards, but Derrick Randall is very, very sparingly used and Jamel Artis is undersized for the position at 6'7".  UVA should be able to find a mismatch somewhere in the frontcourt, and whoever is the beneficiary - Gill or Mitchell, maybe Tobey - will have a big day.

This is not to say they'll be a pushover all over the place.  Pitt will make you work on offense, and you have to be extra careful with the ball because their backcourt can be disruptive, particularly Cameron Wright.  They're tough to win the rebound battle against; Talib Zanna can be a real force on the glass.

Finally, of course, you hope that playing their third game in as many days will wear on the Panthers.  We like to talk about our depth and rotating more players in and out, but the fact is, the rotation has tightened some of late, and Tony Bennett is leaning more on his starters than he used to.  And even so, it's less so than Pitt does.  Three players play over 30 minutes and one more (Zanna) is close enough that he might as well.  Will the second half bring a bonanza as relatively fresh legs go against tired ones?  It might.

-- UVA on defense

What do you do with Lamar Patterson?  He's the nation's 8th-best player according to KenPom.  He shoots a ton and makes quite a few; he's got 40% range from three and he's a really good passer, too.

The answer is simple: exactly what UVA did last time.  He's a very good shooter with his feet set and he can get to the rim, but he's actually pretty awful in the mid-range.  UVA turned him into a pull-up jump shooter in the game in Pittsburgh and it was pretty much brilliant.  Patterson made one early shot and then bricked every two-point attempt the rest of the way.  Overplay just a touch and be ready to help once he takes that first step inside the arc.  You want him pulling up, and if you can get him to do so, he's mortal.

Patterson has launched 186 three-point shots this year, but there aren't many Panthers who won't try it out given the chance.  There aren't many who're real adept at it, either; Pitt shoots a respectable .361 from deep, but that's skewed by Patterson's .403.  Point guard James Robinson is fine, and backup shooting guard Josh Newkirk is much better than fine (shooting .457, which oddly is also his free-throw percentage.)  Cameron Wright, however, is lousy from deep, and his efficiency skyrockets inside the arc.  As well, most of Pitt's power forwards will give the deep ball a try at times, too; this behavior should be encouraged.

Down low, it takes a concerted effort to stop Talib Zanna, whose strength and athleticism is a major asset for Pitt.  The fact that he took just three shots was a big factor in the last game, and if UVA continues to be that effective at ball denial it'll be a real advantage.  The other starting forward, Michael Young, is much less fearsome, and simply physically not the player Zanna is.  His O-rating is rescued largely by outstanding free-throw shooting, so he's not the player you want to hack.  (Protip: Hack Zanna instead, or better yet, Newkirk or Derrick Randall.)

Plenty of weapons on this team, but UVA produced the blueprint to stopping them back in February.  Turning Patterson into a pull-up shooter is paramount.  Pitt won't help you out the way Florida State does, and sophomore PG Robinson is one of the players that broke the A/T ratio record in the conference this year.  But UVA's scheme matches up fairly well with the Panthers, and let's not fail to mention the potential fatigue factor either.

-- Outlook

Pitt had a pretty crappy finish to the regular season.  Home losses to Florida State and NC State; OT wins over Notre Dame and Clemson, and they let Boston College get pretty close as well.  They might've rediscovered a little mojo in the tournament, though.  Two straight 80-point games, starting with a thorough demolition of Wake Forest.  Fair to say this'll be a challenge.

UVA was the deeper team in February, though, and that sure didn't change.  And UVA earned the extra bye and ought to be able to make use of it.  I say, it's time to go play for a championship.

Final score: UVA 60, Pitt 54

the recruit: Donovan Dowling

Name: Donovan Dowling
Position: WR
Hometown: Richmond
School: Varina
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 205

24/7: 81, three stars; #193 WR, VA #48
ESPN: 72, three stars; #210 WR, VA #43, East #220
Rivals: 5.4, two stars
Scout: two stars

Other offers: Marshall, various I-AA

At this point in the recruiting series, we're going to have to establish some uncomfortable facts.  Donovan Dowling committed in November, by which time nearly every door had been closed to Mike London on account of losing ten games (or being on the way to doing so.)  The recruiting focus shifted almost exclusively to scrounging the bargain bin for projects and players who had, for whatever reason, missed out on the recruiting cycle.  The reason I keep using words like "almost" is Jamil Kamara.  Every commit besides him, from here on out, is such a project, most of them having either picked up football late or been injured right when they needed to be on the camp circuits.  And while individually, each one of these guys has reasons they might pan out and be the proverbial diamond in the rough, the odds are against them.  Collectively, there's just a lower chance of stardom from this batch.  That's just going to have to be the overshadowing truth in the rest of these profiles.

Depressing stuff out of the way, Donovan Dowling is not one of those guys who is a physical freak who barely knows which way his shoulder pads go.  He's been at this football thing for a while, though he was offered originally as the sort of generic athlete that Mike London offers all the time.  In high school he was more productive than flashily athletic, this past season scoring five touchdowns of 82 or more yards.  All in different ways, too, as he played both ways for Varina.  As a junior he made the RTD's all-metro team as a receiver, catching 42 passes for 587 yards.

And finally, maybe the highest praise of all: his high school coach called him the most dominant player but one that he'd ever coached.  So with that being the case, why the two-star ratings and utter lack of I-A offers?

My guess, and only guess because reporting on Dowling is slim, is that the answer can be found in ESPN's evaluation, which makes it clear he's got no explosion in his step.  Usually you have to parse these reports a little bit; they're sensitive to being overly critical, so they use words like "flashes the ability to" or "can do X" in order to mean "doesn't always" or even "doesn't usually."  If they specifically say "does not" or "is not" then they really mean it.  And in Dowling's case, "quick twitch," "sudden athlete," and "initial quickness" are all phrases they use to describe what Dowling lacks.

This makes him a lousy fit as a cornerback and probably as a linebacker, which is occasionally mentioned - it would take a few years to teach the linebacker position to the point where he'd be useful.  Especially outside 'backer.  Safety would be a better bet, as Dowling is accustomed to playing defensive back and your quickness at safety is as much dependent on your mental acuity as physical skills.  However, Dowling appears initially headed for wide receiver.

This is a logical choice for several reasons.  One, the impending WR exodus, with E.J. Scott and Adrian Gamble transferring (well, I assume this on Gamble, but he's no longer on the team) and Pablo Alvarez not coming back for a fifth year.  Slotting Dowling at receiver makes far better sense from a depth chart standpoint.  It makes good sense from a skills standpoint too; ESPN, despite all that about not being a super athlete, gives him good marks on skills useful for a possession receiver: length and size, catching in a crowd, field savvy (i.e., finding the holes in a zone), adjusting to the ball, and so forth.  Besides, a guy who scores a whole bunch of 80-yard touchdowns might not have a first gear, but he's probably got a fifth.  (And top-end speed is not that useful for a cornerback - if you ever have to use it, you're already in deep trouble.)

The one problem with being a guy with possession-receiver skills in UVA's offense is that tight ends are really the possession receivers.  Canaan Severin came in as such a player and has barely gotten off the ground.  We haven't really used a possession receiver since Matt Snyder.  If the coaches (whether that's London or a whole new staff) decide we need a possession receiver, though, Dowling is a guy to look at.  I don't think he'll ever top out as a #1, all-ACC guy, but if he plays up to his potential (and he's a 4.0 GPA student, always a coachable sort of player) then I picture an efficient chain-mover, 20-30 catches, 250-350 yards on the stat sheet.

***************************************************

We can has nice things?

You didn't think I'd go and say nothing about the Pitt game, did you?  It's just, I have a to-do list that I'm behind on, which is really a good position to be in given what I consider the #1 challenge of this whole operation, but it necessitates some doubling up if I want to get in some basketball talk sometimes.  And damn do I ever want to get in some basketball talk.

You've heard me say it before: there's no reason a game has to be a defense-free scoring carnival to be entertaining.  Those are fun - so is a clash of styles such as the VCU game, and so is a defensive slugfest where a basket is a really big deal and nobody ever gets so much as a five-point lead.  You could almost hear Tony Bennett tell Jamie Dixon, "Ain't gonna be no rematch."

The whole time, I confess it, I was waiting for the shoe to drop, big time.  I figured it was happening when Cameron Wright (a career .250 three-point shooter) heaved a shot-put.... with half a second left on the shot clock.... and Joe Harris all over him.... and it banks the hell in.  Living proof that the ACC scheduling office and referees aren't the only ones who observe Rule 2(b).  I further absolutely expected the referees to decide that the shot clock had properly reset on the scramble in which Pitt scored with -4 seconds left.  The fact that they didn't - and apparently, that one of them was spotted giving the Genuine Home-Cookin' clock operator what for - renews a small amount of faith in ACC refs.

Giving them credit for not 2b-ing us probably says something about my jade-colored glasses, but it's nice to know these days that in the struggle between 2b and TB, Coach is winning.  UVA now has a pelt for its wall, and the good news is that Pitt didn't even drop out of the top 25.  I know - the top 25 means zilch, but it's just nice to have the warm and fuzzy that people who are paid for their opinions saw fit to reward UVA more than punish Pitt.

Most of the conference is now exactly halfway through their season, and UVA sits with a surprising two game lead on the field (said field consisting of Pitt and Duke) and a game back of Syracuse - and with the most favorable schedule in the whole league.  The guaranteed tiebreaker over Pitt is nice, and we have an ace in the hole over Duke, too: the fact that Duke must still play Carolina twice, just in time for UNC to be belatedly hitting their stride.  (Also, that Duke must play Carolina while wearing Duke uniforms, which tends to fire up the Heels because obviously it does.)  Syracuse will visit Duke, Pitt, and Florida State, all the while looking over their shoulder hoping we stumble against the putz parade in the next month.  (At some point, we probably will.  It's just the nature of things.  Let's all promise not to run off a cliff when that happens.)

If you'll allow me to think loftily for a minute, I'd say the ceiling for this team - should it make a miracle run through the schedule that doesn't stop until they're cutting down the nets in Greensboro - is a 2 seed.  If UVA just takes care of business against Boston College on Wednesday, Lunardi will probably say 4 seed on Thursday.  I'd be good with that.  I'd be better with taking this sucker one game at a time - not because the cliche says you should, but because this is too much fun not to.

-- Mike Tobey could use some coaching on passing out of a double-team.  That having been duly noted, the refs could use some coaching on the fact that when the ballhandler is bashed upside the head and shoved so hard he travels, "traveling" is not the correct call.

-- I wish someone had just told me that Wright's prayer-bucket, with 6:52 to go, would be Pitt's last points except for a single free throw.  My cardiac rate could've used the help.

-- Lamar Patterson had a completely terrible game.  He shot 1-for-10 inside the arc.  Here's a list of other players who've had completely terrible games against UVA: T.J. Warren, Pat Connaughton, Jabari Parker, Jarell Eddie.  What do they have in common?  All but Connaughton are their team's leading scorer, yes - and generally, that they're small forwards guarded by Joe Harris, or else Akil Mitchell.

-- Jamel Artis is a fine player for Pitt - a freshman, so nowhere near the star, but probably going to develop into a pretty good hoopster.  And I think you'll take it 10 times out of 10 when he's the leading scorer.

-- By my count, Pitt fans can now commiserate with five or six other groups of ACC fans, none of whom, apparently, saw their teams bring their best game to the floor against UVA.  What lucky coincidence for us that nobody bothers to actually play well against UVA.  Nine games in and nobody has seen fit to bring their so-called A-game.  We're so lucky to have such an accommodating conference.

game preview: Pittsburgh

Date/Time: Sunday, February 2; 12:30

TV: ESPNUVA

Record against the Panthers: 7-3

Last meeting: UVA 84, Pitt 80; 12/3/90, Richmond, VA

Last game: UVA 68, ND 53 (1/28); Duke 80, Pitt 65 (1/27)

KenPom:

Tempo:
UVA: 63.0 (#335)
Pitt: 65.2 (#266)

Offense:
UVA: 109.5 (#77)
Pitt: 117.9 (#11)

Defense:
UVA: 88.2 (#2)
ND: 94.1 (#18)

Pythag:
UVA: .9231 (#13)
ND: .9304 (#8)

Projected lineups:

Virginia:

PG: London Perrantes (4.5 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 3.8 apg)
SG: Malcolm Brogdon (11.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 2.1 apg)
SF: Joe Harris (11.5 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.2 apg)
PF: Akil Mitchell (6.6 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 1.3 apg)
C: Mike Tobey (7.8 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 0.4 apg)

Pittsburgh:
PG: James Robinson (8.4 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 4.2 apg)
SG: Cameron Wright (10.8 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 2.9 apg)
SF: Lamar Patterson (17.7 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 4.5 apg)
PF: Michael Young (5.9 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 0.9 apg)
PF: Talib Zanna (13.5 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 0.5 apg)

Cutting right to the chase, this game is about one thing and one thing only: R-E-S-P-E-C-T.  From the pollsters and, more importantly, the tourney committee.  Here's the thing: the ACC has shaken out into tiers, as it tends to do, and there's a clear top four of Cuse, Pitt, Duke, and UVA.  Duke beat Pitt and us, Cuse beat Duke and Pitt - and now there's Pitt and UVA going at it.  We already aren't ranked at all, not even close in the ARV category, because we haven't really beaten anyone.  We've just beaten the pulp out of most of our ACC competition, and knocked off SMU, I guess.  FSU, maybe they count, maybe UNC, but still.

After Pitt, the schedule is a month worth of scrubs, ranging from the moderately dangerous (Clemson, Maryland) to the utter crap (BC, VT, Miami.)  The next crack we have at a major tourney-bound team is in the next-to-last game of the year when Syracuse comes to town.  It'll be nice to pile up wins, but here's a fact: unless we beat one of these other three teams, nobody will put us in a tier with them.  There'll be a top three instead of a top four and we'll probably find ourselves a six seed at best.  This is a great problem to have, by the way, but it's still a problem.  So what's at stake in this game is no less than a top-three placement in the ACC.  Winner gets it.  Loser is fourth.  Regardless of what the standings say, perception is reality, so that's how it'll be.  So - this one's big.

-- UVA on offense

There isn't much of a weakness anywhere in Pitt's defense.  They're a more athletic team than UVA has faced most of the way here in the ACC.  As part of Lamar Patterson's do-absolutely-everything repertoire, he's a good defender who can grab steals, and shooting guard Cameron Wright gets even more.  Very few teams can match UVA in defensive possession length, but Pitt come close.

They also rebound quite well, led in this regard by Talib Zanna, easily the best rebounder on the team.  Backup power forward Derrick Randall scoops three boards a game in just ten minutes of time.  As UVA has also rebounded very well on both ends of the court, the battle on the glass should be one of the best parts of the game.

Mike Tobey may have a slight advantage, though, as he'll be the tallest player on the court by two inches.  Pitt doesn't have anyone over 6'9", a small strike against them.  It's made them a middling shot-blocking team at best, which is probably the one chink in their armor.  Remember I said Tobey would have a good game against Notre Dame because they don't block shots?  And then remember how he did have a good game?  Pitt's not any better at the shot-block - a little worse, actually.  The difference is that Tobey will be going up against more athletic players as well as a team that might help on defense once a season.  If Tobey scores another 14 points, though, I'll have no choice but to conclude he'll likely have a solid game any time he doesn't have to worry about his shot getting swatted.

Easier said than done, but UVA may be able to gain an advantage if they can put Pitt's guards in foul trouble.  They don't foul much, which is good because there aren't many of them.  Josh Newkirk is the only one they have off the bench, and he's nothing special; more often, Pitt waits until the matchups allow them to pull a guard and then they put a forward in - often backup wing Chris Jones - and have Lamar Patterson guard the two.

At least there's this: UVA's free throw shooting has been slightly better in ACC play, nudging the Hoos into the top 300 in FT%.  Great news, I suppose.  To win this game, they'll need to continue getting good, balanced scoring and break down the Pitt defense with good passing and some timely threes.  In other words, play good offense.  Great advice.  It's the only way to get around a skilled, athletic defense like Pitt.

-- UVA on defense

You have to start any discussion of Pitt's offense with Lamar Patterson.  It's constitutionally required.  There's nothing he doesn't do, really.  ESPN recently pointed out that he's the only player in the country shooting .500 on twos, .400 on threes, and averaging over four assists a game.  He spreads his shots evenly around the court, and you can't foul him because he shoots 80% from the line.  Patterson is almost assured a spot on the ACC first team, or else the voters are numbnuts.**  UVA will need an athletic player guarding him - Justin Anderson seems a likely bet even though he's not a starter, and perhaps Malcolm Brogdon instead of Joe Harris.  KenPom's player ratings place Patterson 4th in the entire country, with only Nick Johnson, Jabari Parker, and Doug McDermott ahead.

So that's a matchup nightmare through and through.  Pitt also gets over 60% shooting on twos from Talib Zanna, but Zanna's effectiveness drops exponentially if you force him away from the rim.  Whoever guards him, Akil Mitchell probably, has got to body up and get him as far from the net as possible, more so than usual when guarding a post player.  It'll keep him off the offensive boards and kill his scoring effectiveness if Mitchell can do this.

Having lost sixth man Durand Johnson to a knee injury about three days after I wrote the Pitt preview, the Panthers only get reliable scoring from two other players.  One is Cameron Wright, who's most effective in the midrange game but a crap three-point shooter, and the other is PG James Robinson, a pass-first point guard who also prefers the midrange jumper but is best when trying to get to the rim.

Beyond that, Pitt gets only marginal contributions from the five other rotation players.  Backup PG Josh Newkirk, for example - the way to defend him is to overplay him hard, and if he drives around, hack him.  He's shooting 1-for-10 from the line.  Pitt is otherwise a generally excellent free-throw shooting team, so care is warranted, but UVA has little to fear from a Michael Young or a Jamel Artis, as long as UVA is rebounding.

This may be a favorable matchup for the pack-line.  UVA will probably use the low-post double team on Zanna as much as humanly possible, fearing very little of Zanna's passing or the abilities of the rest of the frontcourt.  The pack-line should hopefully discourage Robinson from driving the lane - you'd rather have him shooting jumpers.  What to do about Patterson is another question entirely.  Hope he has an off day, I guess.

-- Outlook

When I'm predicting these games, I usually have half an idea of what I want to go with before I start and develop the rest in my head as I go.  I was hoping that the writing would help me out here more than usual.  It's done nothing of the sort.  Whether you think Pitt or UVA will win this game depends basically on a couple questions, not all of which are analytical.  Is UVA good enough at their defensive system to shut down Pitt?  Can we finally have nice things or are we destined, even when having a good season, to be not quite good enough?  Can UVA hit just enough threes to stay within striking distance if not pull ahead?  These are two pretty evenly matched teams and I have no idea what the answer is to any of those questions.  Pitt has a talent edge, UVA a depth edge.  And these days, I hardly know anymore whether it's OK to go on an optimistic streak.  The shoe always drops, doesn't it?

Nevertheless, fuck it.

Final score: UVA 64, Pitt 61

season preview: Pittsburgh

Media prediction: 6th of 15

Last season:

Record: 24-9 (12-6); Big East 4th seed
Postseason: NCAA 8 seed; lost in first round
KenPom: 11th of 347

Returning scoring: 48.8%
Returning rebounding: 46.3%
Returning assists: 51.8%

2012-2013 all-ACC:

1st team: none
2nd team: none
3rd team: none
HM: none
Defensive: none
Rookie: none

(Italics indicate departed player.)

Starting lineup:

PG: James Robinson (So.)
SG: Cameron Wright (rJr.)
SF: Lamar Patterson (5Sr.)
PF: Michael Young (Fr.)
PF: Talib Zanna (5Sr.)

Bench:

F Durand Johnson (rSo.)
F Jamel Artis (Fr.)
G Josh Newkirk (Fr.)
F Derrick Randall (Jr.)
F Chris Jones (rFr.)

Coach: Jamie Dixon (11th season)

ACC schedule:

Twice: Clemson, Maryland, NC State, Syracuse
Once: Boston College, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

One of the ACC's newest additions should instantly become one of its top teams.  Jamie Dixon has only failed to take Pitt to the NCAAs once, and that year the Panthers earned a trophy for their case in the CBI.  So they'll be a major challenge every year.

The star of this year's team is small forward Lamar Patterson, blossoming in his senior year.  Patterson averaged exactly 10 points a game last year and was one of Pitt's primary scorers, but he's on a new level this year; not only does he lead the team in scoring at over 17 points a game, but he leads the team in assists, too.  Patterson is shooting almost .600 from two and well over .400 from three.  On defense, he gets quite a few steals, and doesn't foul.  Among the best all-around players in the league.

Patterson gets good help in the scoring department from shooting guard Cameron Wright and power forward Talib Zanna.  Both are efficient shooters, and Zanna is a top rebounder while Wright has a steal percentage of nearly 5%, good for 18th in the country.  Point guard James Robinson, a former UVA recruit, plays more in the background when it comes to scoring but has an outstanding A/T ratio of over 5.1/1.  Rounding out the starting lineup is freshman forward Michael Young, playing for now the role of glue guy and doing it very well.

Off the bench, sixth man Durand Johnson is primarily a scorer, and one of the team's best free-throw shooters on a team full of good ones.  Pitt's bench is mainly forwards; Johnson and Chris Jones play the three, with Johnson occasionally asked to guard the four.  Jamel Artis and Derrick Randall are fours.  Pittsburgh lacks a true center and its only real guard off the bench is back PG Josh Newkirk, who is a big step down from Robinson.

The slightly skewed lineup hasn't mattered much.  This is one of the most efficient offenses in the country, averaging 1.18 points a possession.  They have the 300th-fastest tempo but are 88th in points per game.  They've been just as good on defense, and nearly every one of their games has been an easy win, including the first two of the ACC season.  (The one exception: a 44-43 loss to Cincinnati with the absurdly slow tempo of 48 possessions.)  No doubt that Pitt is among the strongest contenders for the ACC title this year, and - though the nonconference schedule was pretty light on resume-building - should earn a high seed in the tournament.

********************************************************

Apparently our own team didn't like losing to Tennessee in the fashion that it did.  Tony Bennett restructured the offense some, the players refocused on defense, and the result was a win in a place the Hoos hadn't won in a decade followed by going to town on Wake Forest.

No particular offensive style - or player - dominated UVA's scoring; there were threes, dunks, drives, a few midrange jumpers, and I consider this a good sign.  Getting the whole team involved is so key that it's cliche, but at the same time, if you can win without having to rely on a barrage of threes or a particular weakness in the opposing defense, it's a more sustainable path to success.

This is UVA, so we'll always find something to complain about; in this case, it's Mike Tobey's 3-for-11 shooting night.  Myself I was happy about a second-half bucket out of him which was so ugly it was beautiful.  Ugly baskets are what people want to see out of Tobey, and he missed, had it blocked, nearly lost it out of bounds, fought three Deacons for the rebounds, and finally finished.  Big men are always behind in their development because so often they didn't get to be that size til their junior or even senior year of high school, so they're not used to it; Tobey is still in that phase, having added those 40 pounds in the offseason.  That he's still figuring out his strength is no surprise.

Besides maybe a nice Teven Jones feed to Darion Atkins, or Joe Harris's half-ending three-pointer, how many other plays stand out from the game?  Not that many - and like I said, I think that's a good thing.  A good team should be brutally efficient, and that game was a meat grinder.  We'll see if the team can keep it up; at their best, they're better than most of this ACC.

bipolar disorder

I was going to start this post with some variation of "I don't know whether to be happy or pissed off" based on the completely polar-opposite performances by the offense or defense.  Then I realized - duh - we lost.  So the answer to that question is pretty obvious.

Let's get the good stuff out of the way first before we descend into internet RAGE mode.  All of the good stuff is defense-related, obviously.  I really can't say enough what a great job the defense did.  The offense should spend the week bringing room service to the defense and otherwise catering to their every whim, in exchange for the terrible letdown they handed their teammates on Saturday.  Pitt does not have a good offensive line, but still - the domination at the line was a sight to behold.  It wasn't just the seven sacks.  It was the nonexistent Pitt running game, and the pressure on what must have been two of every three of Tom Savage's dropbacks.

The coverage deserves a hand, too.  Savage had 191 passing yards and would've had less than half that if not for some absurdly good NFL throws.  Several of his completions were despite beautiful coverage - and against two of the ACC's best receivers.  Between the total ownership of the line of scrimmage and the excellent pass coverage, I have nothing whatsoever to say against the defense and can't find enough words of praise to heap upon their performance.

I really wish, though, that I'd thought of Jerry Ratcliffe's line about Dominique Terrell before Ratcliffe thought of it - specifically, he called Terrell's punt-catching decisions "like watching a drunk chase a balloon near the edge of a cliff."  You just don't usually get that kind of color from the media and it's a shame.  I might have said "off a cliff" because that's where Terrell seems to want to send his team's fortunes.  At this point I've given up hope that Terrell will ever be a smart player, and it's just amazing to hear London talk about things like accountability and at the same time continue to put Terrell and his idiotically adventuresome decision-making skills out there in the spotlight.

So let's talk about our offense.

It's not so much that David Watford makes bad decisions.  He just doesn't make any decisions.  Occasionally, very occasionally, he keeps on a read option.  When passing, he waits for his first-option receiver to get to the point on the route where Watford should throw the ball, and then throws it.  Coverage be damned.

I really don't want to single out one person, though.  The offensive line blocked like shit.  Steve Fairchild called a shit game.  And on the rare occasions where Watford made neither a shit throw nor a shit decision, his receivers took a shit.

I have two main bitches about Fairchild.  One, God kills a baby angel every time an offensive coordinator runs a toss sweep or option play to the short side of the field.  Two baby angels if he does it on fourth down.  That is setting your offense up to fail, plain and simple.  Two, continually calling run plays directly at Aaron Donald.  I don't know whose fault it was that Donald kept being single-blocked, but there's never a good reason to run right at the best player on the defense regardless of how many blockers there are.

"Soul-searching" is probably the wrong word for what needs to happen in offensive meetings between now and next Saturday.  Imodium-searching might be more productive so the offense can stop taking a big diarrhea-shit all over the field.  Maybe someone can teach Watford that he has more than one receiver to throw to - or else just put nine guys in protection.  Maybe someone can teach the offensive line to stay between the defender and the ball.  Maybe someone can put stickum on the hands of the receivers.  For some really stupid reason UVA starts as a five-point favorite against Ball State - which puts a lot of faith in the offense to score more than five points.

Brief other stuff:

-- If the offense spends the week fetching water for the defense, they can include Alec Vozenilek in their rounds for the 77-yard punt that bailed them out from shitting around inside their own ten.

-- I'm not mad at London for going for it on fourth and almost-goal, down 14-3.  Anyone suggesting we should have kicked the field goal is saying that the offense would've been able to actually move the ball again.  That one drive included over 40% of the yards the offense gained the entire game.  77 of their 188 total yards.  What's easier: scoring a touchdown from the three yard line or your own 20?

-- It's possible, maybe probable, that Eric Tetlow is a better player than Cody Wallace right now.

-- The maddening thing about all the drops is that so many of them came from what are supposed to be our best receivers.  Two each, I think, from Jake McGee and Darius Jennings.  Settin' the example.

-- Piling on Dom Terrell a little bit more, how about this: we win if Terrell doesn't try to chase down that punt.  Even if the offense had gone three-and-out, they'd likely have ended up punting, putting Pitt in no position to score.  They don't score, they don't kick off and pin us deep where a bad snap gives Pitt the ball in the red zone again.  Just keep trading punts and eventually the turnovers our defense generated would've let us get a field goal here and there, and the Panthers likely would've been shut out.

Prediction review:

Before we start, I'm just gonna say that I'm not taking responsibility for bad predictions this week.  I'll still track 'em, but c'mon.  I deserve a break when the offense is more preoccupied with taking a shit than with moving the ball.

-- Daniel Hamm outgains Khalek Shepherd.  Null prediction as London mentioned Hamm left the game early with an injury.  I think minus that I would've gotten it, though, because Shepherd was in for just one series.

-- Watford manages about six yards per pass.  He got 3.3.  He might have made it to six without the drops.

-- Watford also contributes at least 30 yards on the ground.  He actually gained 50 yards going forward and lost 35 to sacks and shitty snaps.  I'm claiming this one as a win since his contribution to the running game was much bigger than previously, even against VMI, and it's not his fault his O-line politely allowed Aaron Donald and his DT cohorts to get all up in his stuff every other pass.

-- Aaron Donald and Eli Harold are the only players on either team to register a sack.  I actually got this half right.  One Pitt sack - a fumbled snap - was considered a "team" sack, and Donald got their other two.  I didn't really foresee the ass-kicking the rest of our line would deliver, though, and Max Valles deserves special recognition for making prophets out of the defensive coaches that put him way high on the depth chart.

-- UVA is able to keep Pitt's running game in check, with no more than four yards a carry.  If you include sacks, Pitt totaled eight yards on the ground.  Not including sacks they still got crushed, with only 2.2 yards a carry.  Niiiiice.

-- If both Tyler Boyd and Devin Street have fewer than 100 receiving yards apiece, UVA wins.  Null prediction as Boyd gathered in 111 receiving yards.  That's not why we lost, though.

Take away the two nulls and I actually went two-for-four.  8-for-20 is the season total, and since I predicted a win, I drop to 2-2 both real-time and ATS in the game-prediction department.  I should get another loss just for assuming the offense was a real offense, but that's not how this works.