a look around

We have a slight pause between the regular season and postseason, so it's time to take stock of how things are going in UVA's major sports.

Basketball, obviously, is pretty much the way it's been since Joe Harris knocked on Tony Bennett's front door a couple years ago.  The team could literally take a collective dump at center court on Thursday and then stagger off the court smashed on Wild Turkey, and they'd still be a three seed at the barest of minimums.  Since theydo actually plan on trying to win a basketball game (against either Clemson or Georgia Tech), the only drama left when it comes to tournament seeding is: 1 or 2?

Right now they're Joe Lunardi's third #1.  (And in a bracket that sets them up on a potential crash course with Buddy Hield, which would be excellent theater.)  That said, Michigan State and Xavier are strong candidates to take that 1 seed with strong tourney runs - and let's face it, MSU has to be considered the massive favorite in the B1G tourney just because of Izzo and their evil vampire nature.  (Come to think of it, I would consider them the massive favorite in the NCAA, too, without a powerhouse team in the bracket to apply the stake to the heart.)  UVA would be at risk of dropping to a 2 seed if they didn't make it to the ACC championship game on Saturday - but would be close to a lock for a 1 if they did.

Attention must be paid to Malcolm Brogdon, opening up a new door in ACC history with the never-before-seen feat of winning ACC POY and DPOY in the same year.  The two awards are clearly linked to each other, though, because the conference's two leading scorers are Tobacco Roadies.  In other words, Brogdon isn't POY without being DPOY.  The interesting thing is that the POY vote wasn't all that close, and his defensive stats don't really stand out.  He's not a machine for either blocks or steals, which is usually how you win DPOY.  You have to actually pay attention to UVA games to know Brogdon's value on defense - which is to say, UVA has become must-see TV for ACC journalists.  Quite likely, they noticed how Brandon Ingram stopped lighting up the scoreboard when Brogdon was assigned to him.

The ACC tournament sets up well for UVA.  The other side of the bracket has the conference's top three offenses (UNC, Duke, Notre Dame); the only top team in the conference that UVA didn't beat (Duke) didn't earn a double bye and needs to take their thin lineup through a gauntlet.  That said, it's a shame Louisville isn't involved - it'd be tougher to get through, but man, six teams like the ACC has at the top, plus some danger mice like Clemson and VT, would make for an ACC tourney for the ages.  Or really, just the way things should be every year.

Speaking of Louisville, though - are we liking this new tradition of going out on Senior Day and bombing some highly-ranked but temporarily hapless opponent back to the Stone Age with Dick Vitale in attendance?**  And capping it with a three-pointer from a senior walk-on causing the roof to blow off the place? Senior Days don't get better than that.  And I've been sticking up for Mike Tobey all year - I think he gets slapped with expectations and standards that are different from everyone else's, and unfairly criticized as a result - and it was therefore doubly awesome to see him own every square inch of the interior.  And since Thomas Rogers's cherry-on-top three against Syracuse two years ago is still my favorite UVA basketball moment of all time, watching the rerun starring Caid Kirven was like hearing a favorite song on the radio that the DJ never plays.  I could watch that show over and over.

**Don't underestimate the presence of Vitale.  First of all, I don't give a shit what anyone says, I like the guy, a lot.  And second, on the same day that Duke and Carolina were playing at Cameron, ESPN put UVA in the prime-time slot and sent Dickie V to Charlottesville.  UVA-Louisville trumped Duke-UNC.  How about that?

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March 10 is approaching quickly enough that you might read this afterwards.  It's significant in this context for one thing: six years ago, it was the day that Mike London picked up his first two commitments of his first full recruiting class.  That would be David Dean and Clifton Richardson.  Bronco Mendenhall is unlikely to beat that pace, which, of course, is fine.  Mendenhall has really cranked up the offer cannon, and hardly a day goes by without a new one going out.  He's already held two junior days, both of which were highly attended.

I don't think that all these offers are actually, like, offers.  Bronco's not going to be one to tell you you have an offer when really you don't, but he's got to get out front of the relevance train, and there are ways to let a guy claim an offer while making sure he knows he's got to continue to earn it.  There's a feeling-out process going on.  An offer that goes out might be to see if the interest is mutual, or to keep UVA in the game while Bronco continues to evaluate.  Or a combination of the two.

Meanwhile, the feeling-out process is both ways.  There's clearly interest in what Bronco is putting together, but no prospect could ever be faulted for doing his homework.  Mike London was more familiar to everyone locally.  Nearly all his 2011 class was from Virginia or Maryland, and he was already a somewhat known quantity to the recruits he was talking to.  Now we have guys who either were not hearing from UVA before, or had been but under a totally different regime.  It's encouraging that the combined junior day attendance (between the two that've been held so far) was around 50.  Should we be surprised that the process is taking a little bit of time to ramp up?  Not remotely.

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And finally, our beloved spring sports....are showing the rust something fierce.  The baseball team is already loaded down with long-term injuries just a couple weeks into the season, and the bullpen has blown a few leads.  And the lacrosse team....pfff.

It's interesting, actually, that a lot of the reaction to the loss to High Point was not "Virginia is really losing their dominance" but "The blue bloods are really losing their dominance."  I think that's a little bit of a confirmation bias thing.  Most people want there to be more parity in lacrosse, and many are rooting for the "blue-bloods" to lose their hegemony even if they're a fan of a blue-blood.  They just don't want it to be their blue-blood.  And parity in the game is slowly increasing.

But it's really coming more at the expense of the middle tier than the top.  ACC teams are having a fairly tough time this year, and Hopkins has been vexing their fans for a while now, same way UVA has.  But that's nothing compared to how the older middle-tier teams are looking.  Teams like Georgetown, Delaware, St. John's, UMass - formerly tough wins under any circumstance, and now complete pushovers.  Sure, it's not a good sign for lacrosse royalty that teams like Cornell and UVA are no longer powerhouses, but the real brunt of the power shift has been felt further down.

Which means that UVA's struggles - some bad losses and some ugly wins - are more about UVA than the tide of change.  Because let's face it: If Dom Starsia is gently steered toward retirement, which he probably should be if the season continues the way it started, you're nuts if you think the job would have any trouble attracting qualified candidates.

And if you think a 9-4 baseball team is any reason for panic, you learned nothing last year.

terra nova

In calling the Villanova game a potential rock fight, I didn't mean throwing pebbles into the ocean, but that's what you'd guess was happening the way the Hoos and Cats rolled the scoreboard up.  The main surprising thing isn't scoring 86 points.  The main surprising thing is doing it in only 60 possessions, the second-slowest game all year.

When you score 86 points against Morgan State, everyone eyes glaze over and they find a more interesting game to write about.  When you do it against Villanova, people notice - and now Tony Bennett is an offensive mastermind.  These are largely the same players that beat Rutgers 45-26, by the way.

It's all part of a program's metamorphosis into something special.  Mike Krzyzewski isn't known as a great offensive or defensive coach.  He's just known as a great coach.  Even before the Tennessee turnaround, Tony Bennett was getting accolades for his defense, and attention of all varieties for his desire to beat shot clocks into mewling submission.  That's great.  It's an identity, and one I truly enjoy.  I love that the arena gets its loudest for something as mundane as a shot clock violation.  I embrace the pace, and I know for sure Tony won't stop recruiting and selling his defense.

Still, it's one thing to get to the top.  UVA's climbed one Everest already by scrawling its name in the annals of the ACC championship.  Staying there is harder.  Old cliche, but so true.  You have to find and eliminate your weaknesses before the competition does.

That's why that Villanova game was a thing.  If the West Virginia game was proof of the season's chemistry experiment coming together, Villanova is proof the mortar has dried on the program foundations and the walls are ready to go up.  Take one of the really good defensive teams in the country and ruthlessly exploit their weaknesses instead of letting them jump on yours - that's how to keep on winning basketball games.  Not just this year, but in the long term.

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-- The flip side to the offensive volcano is that Nova scored 75 points on those 60 possessions.  That's a lot for a Tony Bennett defense - but then, in the play-by-play I counted 11 points off of quick-change turnovers that the defense had nothing to do with.  Without those..... well, that's still kind of a lot for a Tony Bennett defense, but well within acceptable parameters for a top-20 opponent.  The halfcourt, set-it-up defense looked as good as ever.

-- Nervous nellies will rightly point out that UVA isn't going to shoot 8-for-12 from three very often.  No, they won't, but they will if they create as many open looks as they did.  This wasn't luck, it was the product of really crisp and beautiful ball rotation that resulted in probably half those attempts coming completely uncontested.

-- One of them was kinda contested, but it was my favorite of the day.  Malcolm Brogdon walked upcourt, dribbled the shot clock down to five just because Nova was letting him, then took two steps at the basket, pulled up, and nailed it.  That was pages one through seventeen of the Kobe playbook.  Normally that kind of play why I think the NBA game is much less interesting than college, but we already know Brogdon's character and there isn't a me-me-me strand anywhere in his DNA.  But I've already gone on record saying he can and must be the alpha wolf this year, and a little selfishness on his part will go a long way for his teammates when they start finding themselves unguarded.  Jay Wright's a damn good coach and he was basically throwing up his hands in surrender with his postgame quotes, asking what do you do with a problem like Malcolm?

-- A particular pet peeve of mine is the contingent of Mike Tobey haters the fanbase has.  They have a certain expectation of what Tobey should be, which he isn't, and fail to appreciate what he actually is.  This is a problem nobody else on the team has.  Tobey's lone bucket of the Villanova game, though, came from being what they wish he was.  It won't shut them up, because it's all about consistency and why doesn't he tear someone's head off every possession, you see, but still.

(His first foul was the same.  I don't know how everyone in the arena sees a jump ball and the refs see a foul.  A shooting foul!  That was completely bizarre.)

-- The last time more than one UVA player scored 20 points in a game was three years ago against UWGB, when Akil Mitchell and Joe Harris had 20 apiece.  I bet it happens again this season.

game preview: Georgia Tech

Date/Time: Saturday, October 31; 3:00

TV: RSN/ESPN3

Record against the Jackets: 17-19-1

Last meeting: GT 35, UVA 10; 11/1/14, Atlanta

Last weekend: UNC 26, UVA 13; GT 22, FSU 16

Line: GT by 6

Part of the reason I was bitching about following this football team, is that it's really stinkin' hard to come up with a narrative for anything.  This is the spot where I like to talk about What This Game Means, but what it means is the same thing every week anymore: either one more loss closer to the end of the season or a week-long reprieve.

This one means quite a bit to Georgia Tech - a team that was supposed to contend, now facing down the barrel of no-bowl-dom, but staving off execution by upsetting Florida State last week.  With their most loseable remaining game turned into a win, GT now cannot afford to completely reverse that equation, so while coming off an emotional big win is usually a good time to catch a team, that's less likely to be the case Saturday.

-- UVA run offense vs. GT run defense

Top backs:
Taquan Mizzell: 90 carries, 371 yards, 4.1 ypc, 2 TDs
Albert Reid: 37 carries, 163 yards, 4.4 ypc, 1 TD

UVA offense:
125.43 yards/game, 3.66 yards/attempt
111th of 128 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)

GT defense:
164.88 yards/game, 4.73 yards/attempt
94th of 128 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)

Could it be that UVA's running game is on a genuine upward trend?  The ground game surpassed 200 yards against UNC for the first time this season, and Smoke Mizzell picked up 117 yards; his previous career best was 66.  Daniel Hamm added 70 - mostly on one carry, but that makes two very long pickups in three games for the run game, and it gets harder to ignore them the more they're produced.

UNC had a pretty forgiving defense, but so does Georgia Tech.  Four of their opponents - all good ones - have reached that 200-yard threshold.  Alcorn State had 166.  Truth is, very few running backs have had unproductive days.  Adam Gotsis is a legitimate playmaking DT, but like David Dean, he's usually double-teamed and can't get the help he needs.  GT is most vulnerable on the outside, where the DEs are undersized and there's no playmaking linebacker to clean up.  (There's also no real nose tackle to be found; the defensive tackles are all better suited to the three-tech, but someone has to hold down the fort at the nose, usually Jabari Hunt, and he's not really up to the task.)  The team tackle leader is MLB P.J. Davis with just 54, and the next-most is 36, owned by strong safety Jamal Golden.

No doubt this team is setting me up for disappointment again, but there's reason to be more optimistic about the run game right now than at any previous point this season - including the very beginning.  Continuity along the O-line is certainly helping.  I think Jay Whitmire is finally rounding back into form.  Maybe the best sign is that I went "aw shit" when Jackson Matteo briefly went down during the UNC game - instead of just rolling my eyes at once again having to shuffle the O-line.  You can move the ball on Georgia Tech - and if the past two games can be an indicator, UVA just might do it.

-- UVA pass offense vs. GT pass defense

Quarterback:
Matt Johns: 134/221, 60.6%; 1,580 yards, 12 TDs, 12 INTs; 7.15 ypa, 127.7 rating

Top receivers:
Taquan Mizzell: 41 rec., 466 yards, 3 TDs
Canaan Severin: 33 rec., 458 yards, 3 TDs
T.J. Thorpe: 10 rec., 187 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
230.6 yards/game, 7.0 yards/attempt
79th of 128, 11th of 14 (ACC)

GT defense:
194.8 yards/game, 6.8 yards/attempt
55th of 128, 9th of 14 (ACC)

On the flip side, the passing game has chosen this moment to hit a downslide.  While the running game hit 200 yards last week, Matt Johns missed that mark for the first time this year, and by a lot, too.  A lot of that's on him.  Not every INT was his fault last week - but the one he lofted ten feet over Canaan Severin's head sure was.  It goes without saying he needs to erase those turnovers.

Gotsis remains the primary threat in this area, as he's a solid up-the-middle pass rusher.  Otherwise, GT finds it tough to generate a pass rush without blitzing, and that's not something they do often.  DC Ted Roof prefers a zone scheme and has been known to throw six defensive backs out there more often than a lot of coordinators.  The top pass defender in the secondary is D.J. White, with two picks and five break-ups.

You often see it said about quarterbacks, "we just have to get some pressure on him."  This of course is a close cousin to "we need to not turn the ball over," but with Johns, he does seem like one of those quarterbacks whose performance suffers more than usual from being pressured too much.  And unfortunately the offensive line lets that happen more than it should.  But a bend-don't-break scheme is exactly the kind of thing Steve Fairchild game-plans against.  If the opposition wants to play zone and let you amass six-yard completions all day, Fairchild will greedily slop that up.  I could see that working out.

-- GT run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Justin Thomas: 107 carries, 400 yards, 3.7 ypc, 6 TDs
Patrick Skov: 81 carries, 331 yards, 4.1 ypc, 6 TDs
Marcus Marshall: 57 carries, 508 yards, 8.9 ypc, 4 TDs

GT offense:
283.38 yards/game, 5.60 yards/attempt
16th of 128, 2nd of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
165.86 yards/game, 4.57 yards/attempt
87th of 128, 9th of 14 (ACC)

No need to overdo this.  By now you know what GT does.  You also know how to stop it: rigidly disciplined assignment football and stepping on, over, or around players who cut-block you.  Disciplined assignment football left this team a long time ago and never bothered with a forwarding address.  You can't stop this run consistently with half the team getting so easily redirected.  UVA hasn't successfully stopped the GT attack for a long time, and this team looks especially susceptible.

-- GT pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Justin Thomas: 52/118, 44.1%; 915 yards, 10 TDs, 6 INTs; 7.75 ypa, 127.0 rating

Top receivers:
Ricky Jeune: 15 rec., 319 yards, 3 TDs
Micheal Summers: 8 rec., 120 yards, 2 TDs
Mikell Lands-Davis: 7 rec., 169 yards, 1 TD

GT offense:
120.9 yards/game, 8.0 yards/attempt
38th of 128, 4th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
248.4 yards/game, 8.1 yards/attempt
109th of 128, 14th of 14 (ACC)

The Hoos will be without Tim Harris for this game, which is probably OK given Harris's propensity to give up the big play and GT's propensity to look for it.

For GT, Ricky Jeune is nicely filling the big-and-tall receiver role that they like to feature prominently in what little passing game they have.  Everything's pretty much as usual here too, except that Justin Thomas has been less accurate than most GT triple-option QBs, especially last year's version of Justin Thomas.  Defend the GT pass game by not getting suckered in by what looks like the 17th run in a row.  Also been difficult for our defenders.

-- Favorability ratings

Run offense: 4.5
Pass offense: 4
Run defense: 1.5
Pass defense: 3

Average: 3.25

-- Outlook

Can UVA stop the triple option?  No.  And that's basically what it boils down to.

I do expect an improved offensive performance, at least on the ground.  Or at least, for last week's success to continue.  But as with last week, the run game can be good but very unlikely enough to carry the team.  The run game almost certainly limited the UNC scoring opportunities in the very cliche way of controlling the clock and giving the defense rest etc. etc., but you can't hold that particular horde off forever.  Sooner or later you have to try and stop what you can't stop.  And GT is probably the best losing-record team in the country.  They're not as bad as their wins and losses show.  That'll out, too, and GT will be on the path to reviving their bowl hopes while UVA gets put in the position of having to win out to make it.

Final score: GT 35, UVA 17

-- Rest of the ACC

Byes: none

North Carolina 26, Pittsburgh 19 - Thu. - First game among the three heavyweights of the Coastal.

Louisville @ Wake Forest - Fri. 7:00 - Wake's last game against an unranked team.

Syracuse @ Florida State - 12:00 - Always bet on a team at home that just lost a really tough one - especially if their opponent lost to UVA.

Virginia Tech @ Boston College - 12:30 - Excellent chance - believe it or not - for BC to pick up their first ACC win.

Clemson @ NC State - 3:30 - Next two games mean the season for Clemson.  It's playoffs or bust this year.

Miami @ Duke - 7:00 - The Canes were embarrassed last week and Duke struggled to get past VT; watch for Miami to pull off the upset in this one.  Also, three decades of football just went "WTF" at that characterization of a Miami win over Duke.

game preview: Miami

Date/Time: Saturday, November 22; 7:00

TV: ESPN2

Record against the Canes: 5-6

Last meeting: Miami 45, UVA 26; 11/23/13, Miami

Last weekend: UVA bye; FSU 30, Miami 26

Line: Miami by 5.5

Injury report:

Virginia:

OUT: OG Ryan Doull, C Jackson Matteo, CB Demetrious Nicholson, OT Sadiq Olanrewaju, CB Brandon Phelps, OT Jay Whitmire
DOUBTFUL: S Kelvin Rainey, CB Divante Walker
QUESTIONABLE: None
PROBABLE: DE Trent Corney, LB Mark Hall

Miami:

OUT: OL Taylor Gadbois, OL Alex Gall, PK Matt Goudis, S Rayshawn Jenkins, OL K.C. McDermott, FB Ronnie Regula, WR Rashawn Scott
DOUBTFUL: S Deon Bush
QUESTIONABLE: None
PROBABLE: None

It feels like ages since I even thought about football.  With the way things are going, I sort of liked it that way.  With only two games left, the season is right up on the brink.  There are some who think Mike London can save his job by winning the next two and going bowling; I'm not convinced of that, but I am convinced it shouldn't be that way.  My view: let's just win the next two and send London off in halfway decent style, and start over next year.  And if we lose this one, then for God's sake at least beat VT.  But, Miami first.

-- UVA run offense vs. Miami run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 165 carries, 669 yards, 4.1 ypc, 4 TDs
Khalek Shepherd: 59 carries, 253 yards, 4.3 ypc, 1 TD

UVA offense:
142.0 yards/game, 3.81 yards/attempt
94th of 128 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

Miami defense:
130.1 yards/game, 3.44 yards/attempt
20th of 128 (national), 6th of 14 (ACC)

Miami's run defense is sort of averagely good; it's not spectacular, but it gets the job done.  The unit is led by linebacker Denzel Perryman in the middle, an excellent player who's headed for an all-ACC nod of some kind.  Miami rotates three linebackers in the other two spots, which limits the numbers for those guys, but they're all quality players; in fact, second on the team in tackles (after Perryman) is Jermaine Grace, the non-starter of the group.

The D-line doesn't have any big stars on it - Anthony Chickillo tends to get more praise from announcers than a guy with three tackles per game deserves - but it's big, particularly Chickillo.  With UVA's offensive line once again looking thin as rice paper, these guys could be in for big days.  I'd worry about Chickillo as a 280-pound senior DE, but I'd also expect our line to get stacked up more often than not.  (Then again, the last time we saw Steve Fairchild he was abandoning the run game with incredible gusto, so we might not even notice.)

-- UVA pass offense vs. Miami pass defense

Quarterback:
Greyson Lambert: 122/204, 59.8%; 8 TDs, 9 INTs, 1,275 yards; 6.25 ypa

Top receivers:
Canaan Severin: 34 rec., 441 yards, 4 TDs
Taquan Mizzell: 33 rec., 190 yards, 0 TDs
Kevin Parks: 28 rec., 166 yards, 2 TDs

UVA offense:
241.5 yards/game, 6.54 yards/attempt
91st of 128 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)

Miami defense:
192.9 yards/game, 5.92 yards/attempt
14th of 128 (national), 2nd of 14 (ACC)

Matt Johns hasn't thrown a pass in two of the last three games and wasn't all that good in the third; is it safe to say we've finally settled on a quarterback?  I think so.  Maybe.  Probably.  I think.

At any rate, the story's the same: Lambert has got to stop throwing interceptions.  Hard to do against Miami.  They're very average in terms of actual INTs, but the whole defense, from front to back, gets involved in batting passes down.  Very active hands, everywhere.  And QBs have been avoiding cornerback Ladarius Gunter like the plague.

Miami also brings a very good pass rush from all corners.  The sack leader is linebacker Thurston Armbrister with five, but most of the Canes' 25 sacks are spread out among the whole defense.  It's a bad sign, seeing an inexperienced offensive line trying to protect a quarterback when they can't be entirely sure where the rush is coming from.

All this adds up to an excellent pass defense, one of the best in the country.  By doing nothing spectacularly but everything well, Miami is a top-15 defense against air assaults.  Opposing teams have at times piled up the yards, but it takes a lot of passes to get there.  UVA's short passing game ought to work out OK, but I don't expect a lot of deeper stuff to be real successful.

-- Miami run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Duke Johnson: 185 carries, 1,343 yards, 7.3 ypc, 10 TDs
Joseph Yearby: 75 carries, 455 yards, 6.1 ypc, 1 TD

Miami offense:
197.0 yards/game, 5.55 yards/attempt
14th of 128 (national), 2nd of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
118.6 yards/game, 3.22 yards/attempt
13th of 128 (national), 4th of 14 (ACC)

Duke Johnson.  He's really good.  And lest you think we'll be out of the woods if Johnson hobbles off the field, the Canes have been using Joseph Yearby to good effect as well.  He's one of those hard-to-find short guys with some built-in power, not unlike Kevin Parks but with more speed.  The Miami O-line has been opening holes all season, and Johnson blows through them pretty hard.

So nothing fancy here.  Miami just wants to line up and let Johnson beat you down, and sends Yearby in to give Johnson a break.  Johnson is one of the toughest guys to tackle in the whole league.  This area of the game, of course, is UVA's one big bright spot, so Miami will find tougher sledding than they're used to; of the three ACC defenses better against the run than UVA, the Canes have only played one, and lost badly.

-- Miami pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Brad Kaaya: 160/267, 59.9%; 22 TDs, 10 INTs, 2,403 yards; 9.00 ypa

Top receivers:
Clive Walford: 33 rec., 522 yards, 7 TDs
Duke Johnson: 25 rec., 310 yards, 2 TDs
Phillip Dorsett: 23 rec., 662 yards, 7 TDs

Miami offense:
245.4 yards/game, 8.76 yards/attempt
9th of 128 (national), 2nd of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
229.2 yards/game, 7.03 yards/attempt
67th of 128 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

Miami looked like they might be set to let transfer Jake Heaps run the offense, but they couldn't resist going with the true freshman Kaaya in the end, and it's paid off.  Kaaya has looked like a veteran this year - it helps to have such a good ground game opening things up for him, but nevertheless Miami has been able to strike deep and be very efficient overall.

Kaaya relies heavily on Clive Walford, one of the Canes' best receivers and their receptions leader, but the real star of the receiving corps is Phillip Dorsett.  With just 23 catches, Dorsett has piled up 662 yards, giving him an average of almost 29 yards a catch.  I mean holy crap.  Not the kind of player you want to be against when you have two starting cornerbacks sidelined.  Tim Harris got torched a few times earlier this year and Miami will be looking to go after him again.

For UVA, this is an area that's gotten progressively worse throughout the year, and this is not the opponent to fix that.  Johnson is also a pretty big part of the passing game (wouldn't you try and get him the ball in space, with momentum?) and I think UVA can slow that down pretty well, but the deep game is going to burn us several times.

-- Favorability ratings

Run offense: 2.5
Pass offense: 2
Run defense: 5.5
Pass defense: 2.5

Average: 3.125

-- Outlook

I can't think of any good reason to be optimistic here.  UVA is simply overmatched, and badly.  Miami's a better team than its 6-4 record; they'll probably finish 8-4 and look a lot closer to where they should be.  They had a little bit of bad luck on the schedule, having to play two very tough crossovers and losing both.  The Canes are a team with no real weaknesses.  UVA has many.  I was hoping that Miami would win last week and set themselves up for a letdown after taking down huge rival FSU, but now they'll just be pissed off after the way they lost.

-- Predictions

-- UVA allows at least three sacks.

-- And throws at least two picks.

-- Duke Johnson is held reasonably in check, averaging no more than 5.5 yards a carry.

-- Kaaya throws at least three passes of 30 yards or more.

Final score: Miami 31, UVA 10

-- Rest of the ACC

Byes: Georgia Tech, NC State

UNC 45, Duke 20 - Thursday - With that game, the ACC CG is set: FSU vs. GT.  I think I had GT last in the Coastal.  Go me.

Virginia Tech @ Wake Forest - 12:30 - I'd like for us to beat Miami and VT to lose to Wake to set up the Bowl Eligibility Bowl in Blacksburg.  I'd also like a billion dollars and a pony.

Syracuse @ Pittsburgh - 3:30 - Pitt is also seeing their bowl eligibility hanging by a thread - and has to play Miami next week.

Louisville @ Notre Dame - 3:30 - Fight for Western Division superiority in the ACC.

Boston College @ Florida State - 3:30 - Potential letdown for FSU here, but the talent gap is too big.

Clemson vs. Georgia State - 3:30 - If sanity ruled the world this kind of game would be in September and FSU would be playing Clemson this weekend.

2014 hoops preview: ACC returners

Admit it: you saw that header and went OH GOODY.  And, "why can't it be basketball season RIGHT NOW?", followed by a prayer of thanks to all the baby angels for Tony Bennett.  I know how you roll.

Well, you can't have actual basketball for another three-ish weeks, but you can have previews.  I won't be doing full-fledged team previews anymore, so I've got an idea or two spinning in the hopper about how to preview the ACC instead.  This is a basic look at the returning and departed players from the conference.

Using KenPom (what else?) O-ratings, I slapped together a number I'm calling Impact Score.  It's.... not totally scientifically rigorous, but it's kinda neat anyway and useful enough.  All it is, is this:

(O-rating - 100) * Minutes %age * (Possession %age / 0.2)

That assumes that the average player has an O-rating of 100, meaning he generates a point for every one of "his" possessions.  Multiply the difference by the percentage of available minutes he played.  Then multiply again by a proportion generated by his possession percentage, i.e., the percentage of his team's possessions that he ends while he's on the floor (say, by scoring, or turning the ball over.)  This should be around 20%, what with there being five guys on the floor and all.  Higher, and he's having a proportionally greater impact, and vice versa.

Example: A player with an O-rating of 110, who plays 20 minutes a game** and ends 22% of his team's possessions will have an Impact Score of 5.5.

It's not perfect, but it can be illustrative at times.  C.J. Fair, widely considered a top player in the league, and voted to the first team last year, had an O-rating under 100, and thus a negative IS.  Sure, he scored a ton - and he needed five zillion shots to do it.  The guy was the quintessential volume scorer.  It's no accident he went undrafted while Joe Harris got a guaranteed contract.  IS suggests that Syracuse will be better off without Fair.

This is, by the way, purely for the offensive side of the ball, in case you hadn't noticed.  Akil Mitchell is just incredibly pedestrian in this scoring system, but obviously, that wasn't the end of the court where he'll be missed.  For this reason, I've added up each team's IS's but warn you that it's only mildly instructive to do so.  It's really about the players.

**I realize 20 mpg is not precisely the same as 50% of available minutes.  Just roll with it for simplicity's sake.

Here are the total scores for each team from 2013-14:

Duke: 90.43
Louisville: 78.73
Pittsburgh: 58.93
Syracuse: 53.41
Notre Dame: 48.56
Boston College: 40.58
Virginia: 39.70
NC State: 32.57
North Carolina: 32.34
Florida State: 26.16
Clemson: 17.26
Miami: 16.76
Wake Forest: 7.04
Georgia Tech: 2.86
Virginia Tech: -13.71

Obviously, that doesn't correlate too well with actual success, but it does work reasonably hand-in-hand with each team's O-rating.  BC didn't finish in the same hemisphere as UVA in real life, but their KenPom O-rating was 30th in the country to UVA's 21st.  So the similar team IS's make sense viewed in that lens.

Now for the teams in order of returning IS:

Duke: 41.11
Louisville: 38.66
Notre Dame: 37.00
Pittsburgh: 30.32
Virginia: 30.06
Syracuse: 27.01
Boston College: 26.83
North Carolina: 26.31
Clemson: 10.44
Florida State: 9.54
NC State: 0.52
Miami: -3.61
Georgia Tech: -9.97
Virginia Tech: -10.17
Wake Forest: -14.50

Yes, VT committed addition by subtraction, by losing a couple players to transfers, particularly Official Total Stiff, Trevor Thompson, who took his lousy shooting and turnover machinery to Ohio State.  Elsewhere in the state, UVA is among the teams with the highest percentage of quality returning players.  Only Carolina and Notre Dame fare better there - though teams like Duke and Louisville bring back enough talent to be called favorites.

For reference, before we go team by team, here's the top 20 players from 2013-14, whether returning or not (and for that matter, ignoring teams that are no longer here):

1. T.J. Warren (NCSt.) - 19.69
2. Marcus Paige (UNC) - 19.55
3. Pat Connaughton (ND) - 19.32
4. Rodney Hood (Duke) - 18.24
5. Olivier Hanlan (BC) - 16.22
6. Russ Smith (UL) - 15.82
7. Quinn Cook (Duke) - 15.59
8. Trevor Cooney (SU) - 15.39
9. Rion Brown (Mia.) - 15.25
10. Tyler Ennis (SU) - 14.73
11. Coron Williams (WF) - 14.72
12. Lamar Patterson (Pitt) - 14.55
13. Montrezl Harrell (UL) - 14.46
14. Jabari Parker (Duke) - 14.21
15. Talib Zanna (Pitt) - 14.06
16. Okaro White (FSU) - 13.49
17. K.J. McDaniels (CU) - 13.43
18. Jerian Grant (ND) - 13.36
19. Luke Hancock (UL) - 13.06
20. Amile Jefferson (Duke) - 12.97
21. Malcolm Brogdon (UVA) - 12.64

(ok i lied that's 21)

Remember, this isn't the 20 best players, it's the 20 most impactful, as a combination of offensive efficiency and high usage.

Just for S&Gs, the bottom 10:

Madison Jones (WF): -9.65
Chris Bolden (GT): -7.26
Trevor Thompson (VT): -6.75
Joey Van Zegeren (VT): -5.97
Adonis Filer (CU): -5.39
Nate Britt (UNC): -5.08
Devin Wilson (VT): -4.81
Davon Reed (Mia.): -4.80
Kyle Washington (NCSt.): -4.41
Jarquez Smith (FSU): -3.87

All is not lost for these guys, of course.  Some are in fact legitimately bad (or just not ACC-level) but Britt was a pretty hot-stuff recruit (they always are at UNC) and Wilson's game passed the eye test and he probably shouldn't be blamed for having been leaned on so hard by a horrendous team.

BOSTON COLLEGE

Key losses: Ryan Anderson (10.46), Joe Rahon (3.23)

Key returners: Olivier Hanlan (16.22), Lonnie Jackson (3.46), Patrick Heckmann (2.67), Eddie Odio (2.33), Garland Owens (2.28)

Losing Anderson to transfer (Arizona) hurts the Eagles, but they get back one of the conference's better scorers and certainly one of the most heavily-relied-upon players in the country in Hanlan, plus an assortment of useful supporting cast members.

CLEMSON

Key losses: K.J. McDaniels (13.43), Adonis Filer (-5.39)

Key returners: Rod Hall (5.49), Damarcus Harrison (4.75), Landry Nnoko (4.29)

McDaniels is a huge loss, but it's balanced by also losing Adonis Filer, the fifth-lowest ranked player in the league; Filer transferred to Florida Atlantic.  Clemson is left without a star player for now, but some good pieces remain, and freshman Donte Grantham should be an impact player.

DUKE

Key losses: Rodney Hood (18.24), Jabari Parker (14.21), Andre Dawkins (8.61), Tyler Thornton (7.44)

Key returners: Quinn Cook (15.59), Amile Jefferson (12.97), Rasheed Sulaimon (10.59)

Duke loses enough players to fill out the starting lineup of an ACC contender, but nobody's feeling too sorry for them.  Somehow they'll cope.  Top freshmen who you'll get sick of hearing about include Tyus Jones, Jahlil Okafor, and Justise Winslow, all one-and-done possibilities.

FLORIDA STATE

Key losses: Okaro White (13.49), Ian Miller (6.84), Robert Gilchrist (-3.72)

Key returners: Aaron Thomas (7.48), Boris Bojanovsky (5.04), Devon Bookert (3.33)

FSU is one of the more slammed teams by graduation, but their returning players are all pretty young with a lot of room to grow, and Gilchrist, while not a total stiff on offense, could be hacked with impunity.  FSU isn't in terrible shape, but they'll be a remade team for sure.

GEORGIA TECH

Key losses: Daniel Miller (9.66), Trae Golden (5.63), Kammeon Holsey (2.96),

Key returners: Marcus Georges-Hunt (2.74), Corey Heyward (-3.40), Chris Bolden (-7.26)

This is one of the ugliest situations in the league.  GT was already bad, and Georges-Hunt is the only returning player of much worth at all.  They've taken some transfers, notably ex-Terp Charles Mitchell, and incoming freshman Tadric Jackson comes in with plenty of hype, but generally their returning players just aren't very good.

LOUISVILLE

Key losses: Russ Smith (15.82), Luke Hancock (13.06), Stephan Van Treese (7.52)

Key returners: Montrezl Harrell (14.46), Wayne Blackshear (8.74), Terry Rozier (7.06), Chris Jones (6.07)

Harrell gets all the pub, but Louisville is rightly considered a top contender because of a pretty deep supporting cast that also returns.  It's rare you can lose so much and still bring back so much too - and the incoming freshman class is very deep, with no fewer than five four-star players in it.

MIAMI

Key losses: Rion Brown (15.25), Erik Swoope (5.43), James Kelly (3.83)

Key returners: Manu Lecomte (1.44)

The cupboard's going to be about as bare as that implies.  Of a nine-man rotation, Miami lost six, including Kelly to a transfer to Marshall.  The Canes will have to lean heavily on an incoming class that includes a pair of touted guards in James Palmer and Ja'Quan Newton, and they'll have K-State transfer Angel Rodriguez getting eligible as well.  Rodriguez is probably the main reason the Canes aren't pegged even lower than they are by the experts.

NORTH CAROLINA

Key losses: James Michael McAdoo (3.70), Leslie McDonald (2.33)

Key returners: Marcus Paige (19.55), Brice Johnson (8.37), Kennedy Meeks (5.62), Nate Britt (-5.08)

UNC is the team least affected by attrition in our little analysis here; the losses of McDonald and the wildly overrated McAdoo shouldn't hurt them much, if at all.  Marcus Paige is a preseason favorite for POY, and the Heels have their usual crop of ridiculously talented freshmen coming in.  That includes top-20 five-stars Theo Pinson and Justin Jackson, and if UNC can't get Nate Britt going, four-star PG Joel Berry can give him a push.

NC STATE

Key losses: T.J. Warren (19.69), Jordan Vandenberg (7.70)

Key returners: Ralston Turner (7.44), Lennard Freeman (3.54), Kyle Washington (-4.41)

Trying to replace Warren will be a unique challenge, but this should be a more well-rounded team this year.  It was awfully damn young last year, and the four-star freshman twins Caleb and Cody Martin have Pack fans pretty excited.  NC State could defy the idea that losing a ton of impactful minutes means a drop in production and success.

NOTRE DAME

Key losses: Eric Atkins (11.33)

Key returners: Pat Connaughton (19.32), Jerian Grant (13.36), Demetrius Jackson (3.14)

It's astounding, the fact that Grant has such a high IS even after missing a huge chunk of the season with academic issues.  It's also fairly misleading; he was absolutely crushing it on offense, but, obviously against the weaker part of the schedule, and would've almost certainly come back to earth.  (Especially with two games against UVA.)  Still, that's probably an accurate score, considering he probably won't pile up an O-rating of 132 over a full season, but will also play a lot of minute.  So it balances out.

PITTSBURGH

Key losses: Lamar Patterson (14.55), Talib Zanna (14.06)

Key returners: James Robinson (11.26), Michael Young (4.48), Durand Johnson (4.27), Cameron Wright (3.28)

Pitt only loses two players - but they're doozies.  This is another team that will have to overhaul itself, big time, but also has the tools to do it.  Several players were quietly putting up very efficient seasons, but were overshadowed by Pitt's big three.  Now that the big three is down to one, there's a lot of opportunity, and little reason to think Pitt will take a major tumble.

SYRACUSE

Key losses: Tyler Ennis (14.73), Jerami Grant (12.37), C.J. Fair (-1.37)

Key returners: Trevor Cooney (15.39), Rakeem Christmas (10.02), Michael Gbinije (3.12)

People look at Syracuse's losses and think "three key players out the door" - I say, two.  Fair can join UNC's McAdoo in the overrated bin.  Ennis will be a significant loss, as will Grant; the latter should be somewhat replaceable by top-20 recruit Chris McCullough.

VIRGINIA

Key losses: Joe Harris (10.68)

Key returners: Malcolm Brogdon (12.64), London Perrantes (8.07), Anthony Gill (6.61)

You know all this already, I just wanted to put this down on the same page as everything else for a frame of reference.  In case you're wondering, nobody else on the team rated over 1.70, which was Tobey.

VIRGINIA TECH

Key losses: C.J. Barksdale (5.20), Marshall Wood (-2.27), Trevor Thompson (-6.75)

Key returners: Will Johnston (1.21), Devin Wilson (-4.81), Joey van Zegeren (-5.97)

Because of Buzz Williams, who represents one of the biggest coaching upgrades in the ACC in a long time, VT is a wild card.  But still probably not very good, despite being the only team to add by subtraction - a really tough feat, requiring one to start from a position of horrendous weakness.  Some players such as Wilson can probably be counted on to improve, and it's likely Tech won't be the slack-jawed disaster of last season.  That just means the conference's cellar will be shored up a little.

WAKE FOREST

Key losses: Coron Williams (14.72), Travis McKie (8.17)

Key returners: Codi Miller-McIntyre (0.94), Devin Thomas (-3.52), Madison Jones (-9.65)

By that list of losses, you'd think Wake wasn't half bad last year; they were way more than half bad because Coron Williams was the best player nobody ever heard of, and nobody ever heard of him because he was criminally underused.  With a competent coach and a respectable recruiting class, Wake might well be improved this year, but they also still have the official worst player in the conference.  Jones has to cut down on the almost 40% turnover rate to lose that title.

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You've already seen last year's best and worst; let's split that up now into the conference's top 20 returners and top 20 departers - and the bottom 10 too.

Top 20 losses:

1. T.J. Warren (NCSt.) - 19.69
2. Rodney Hood (Duke) - 18.24
3. Russ Smith (UL) - 15.82
4. Rion Brown (Mia.) - 15.25
5. Tyler Ennis (SU) - 14.73
6. Coron Williams (WF) - 14.72
7. Lamar Patterson (Pitt) - 14.55
8. Jabari Parker (Duke) - 14.21
9. Talib Zanna (Pitt) - 14.06
10. Okaro White (FSU) -13.49
11. K.J. McDaniels (CU) - 13.43
12. Luke Hancock (UL) - 13.06
13. Jerami Grant (SU) - 12.37
14. Eric Atkins (ND) - 11.33
15. Joe Harris (UVA) - 10.68
16. Ryan Anderson (BC) - 10.46
17. Daniel Miller (GT) - 9.66
18. Andre Dawkins (Duke) - 8.61
19. Travis McKie (WF) - 8.17
20. Jordan Vandenberg (NCSt.) - 7.70

Top 20 returnees:

1. Marcus Paige (UNC) - 19.55
2. Pat Connaughton (ND) - 19.32
3. Olivier Hanlan (BC) - 16.22
4. Quinn Cook (Duke) - 15.59
5. Trevor Cooney (SU) - 15.39
6. Montrezl Harrell (UL) - 14.46
7. Jerian Grant (ND) - 13.36
8. Amile Jefferson (Duke) - 12.97
9. Malcolm Brogdon (UVA) - 12.64
10. James Robinson (Pitt) - 11.26
11. Rasheed Sulaimon (Duke) - 10.59
12. Rakeem Christmas (SU) - 10.02
13. Wayne Blackshear (UL) - 8.74
14. Brice Johnson (UNC) - 8.37
15. London Perrantes (UVA) - 8.07
16. Aaron Thomas (FSU) - 7.48
17. Ralston Turner (NCSt.) - 7.44
18. Terry Rozier (UL) - 7.06
19. Anthony Gill (UVA) - 6.61
20. Chris Jones (UL) - 6.07

Bottom 10 losses:

1. Trevor Thompson (VT): -6.75
2. Adonis Filer (CU): -5.39
3. Robert Gilchrist (FSU): -3.72
4. Arnaud William Adala Moto (WF): -2.83
5. Garrius Adams (Mia.): -2.66
6. Jason Morris (GT): -2.56
7. Ibrahim Djambo (CU): -2.40
8. Marshall Wood (VT): -2.27
9. Solomon Poole (GT): -2.17
10. Teven Jones (UVA): -2.03

Bottom 10 returnees:

1. Madison Jones (WF): -9.65
2. Chris Bolden (GT): -7.26
3. Joey van Zegeren (VT): -5.97
4. Nate Britt (UNC): -5.08
5. Devin Wilson (VT): -4.81
6. Davon Reed (Mia.): -4.80
7. Kyle Washington (NCSt.): -4.41
8. Jarquez Smith (FSU): -3.87
9. Josh Smith (CU): -3.86
10. Devin Thomas (WF): -3.52

A final imploration once again applies, to not take this as fully predictive, since it's strictly an offense-only tool.  But it's a fun exercise, and in some cases, awfully illuminating.

Next week, what you've really been waiting for: our own players themselves.  Short version: Everyone is amazing, and Tony Bennett is amazingest.

the devil take it

I'd been preaching the past few weeks that it wasn't real likely that everything was gonna go right in the second half of the season, but I gotta admit I wasn't too sure what that would look like.  No, I wasn't very excited to find out, thank you.  In a nutshell, the answer is:

-- A really bad offensive game plan, badly executed
-- An opposing offensive game plan perfectly suited to nullify the strength of our defense

The latter is actually a little bit encouraging.  The pass rush was taken entirely out of the equation, Anthony Boone wasn't touched, and the defense still only allowed 20 points.  (Though aided somewhat by Boone's inaccuracy.)  There are definitely worse offenses left on the schedule, one of which was on display Thursday night.

Our own offense was a massive disappointment, though.  Yes, dropped passes hurt, and yes, Matt Johns missed some very open receivers deep.  That's not the worst part, though.  The worst part is that Duke's defense has been very, very amenable to jamming the ball down their throat, as evidenced by the fact that some of the shittiest teams in all of D-I football have done just that, and UVA elected to pass more than 60% of the time.

Let's put this in perspective: Duke has a very poor run defense and a very good pass defense.  You have a senior running back and a sophomore quarterback.**  You are presented with a wall of paper and a wall of brick, and you can either use a flamethrower on the paper or a rubber mallet on the brick.  You chose the mallet.

So yes, Matt Johns was mostly off-target with sporadic displays of brilliance, but nobody blames the foot soldiers for the failure of Pickett's Charge.  The coaches had an obvious chance to set their players up for success, and instead got outcoached on two weeks of preparation by a staff with one week of preparation.  It's not hard to see why there's still plenty of angst about the future of the program.

It's a sobering reminder of where our ambitions should be.  A division title would be cool, and jeez, even reachable, but we're probably gonna have to dial that back a bit.  I don't like it one bit, but an offense that spins its wheels as much as this one hasn't earned much confidence in the future.  13 points against that defense is just - ugh, I'm forced to deploy the word of choice for drunken Saturday-night quarterbacks everywhere - unacceptable.

**And your senior running back routinely turns in awesome performances in the state of North Carolina, because he's pissed off that none of the teams there recruited him.  GIVE HIM THE BALL!

Bullets:

-- Short-side east-west plays (the bane of my existence) and poor run-pass balance aren't the only coaching bugaboos to make a triumphant return.  Crappy timeout usage was also costly.  Not as costly as other stuff, but still.

-- I really do not like the orange helmets with gray facemasks.  Really ugly when not part of a throwback.  It's amazing how the wrong helmet turns one of the classiest looks we've ever had into one of the worst.

-- I don't want to do the research on this myself, because it'd take forever, but I wonder when the last time was that a college quarterback completed less than half his passes for over 300 yards.  Johns was nine yards shy of the sophomore record (Matt Schaub, 334) and would've threatened (if not completely blown past) the single-game record of 393 (Schaub, again) with a little more accuracy on some of those deep balls.  Or fewer dropped passes.

-- Another thing I hate: Receiving the opening kickoff.  You basically have to score right there, on that drive, or else you've blown the whole advantage of it.  Anything else - anything at all - and the other team, especially in their own stadium, gets to start the game on a momentum high.  Another reason, by the way, that all that passing was stupid.  Nothing would've been as perfect as taking the opening kick and spending the next seven minutes grinding out as many rushing yards as your heart desired.  Send the message that we're gonna do this all day so you might as well lose hope now.

 Prediction review:

-- Kevin Parks runs for over 100 yards. Well, maybe if he'd been given any carries.

-- Greyson Lambert (or our starting quarterback) attempts fewer than 20 passes.  I really need to stop making predictions based on what I would do.

-- UVA loses the turnover battle.  This did happen, although the general point was to build a narrative where UVA was good enough to overcome doing so.

-- Duke's run game is more than a yard worse than their average.  No, and Duke was surprisingly and annoyingly effective on the ground.

-- Quin Blanding has 10 or more tackles.  Blanding had nine; it was Anthony Harris who had the big day in the secondary with 14

-- UVA wins time of possession by six or more minutes.  The Hoos did win this battle, but not by that much.

New prediction stats:

14-for-35 on specifics (40%)
4-2 straight up
2-2-1 ATS

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Two things happened over the weekend worth discussing.  Well, Thursday and then Monday.

The Monday thing is Tony Bennett building up his 2016 class with the addition of Indiana guard Kyle Guy.  As with Ty Jerome, the first member of the class, I'm gonna wait til these guys finish their junior years before even bothering with trying a profile.  But know this: The Indiana schools normally have the state of Indiana on lockdown, and if not them, the state's high-profile recruits still choose a school close by.  In 2012, for example, the state produced eight four-star prospects (by Rivals' reckoning.)  Three went to IU, two to Purdue, and one each to Butler, Michigan, and MSU.

In fact, going back to the 2009 class, there've been about 30 four-star or above prospects (Rivals, again) to come out of the state of Indiana - exactly one of them went to a school somewhere other than the state of Indiana or one of its direct neighbors.  Guy is the second.

The 2016 class is shaping up to be perhaps Tony's most heralded class of his UVA tenure; it now needs some lengthy wing types, as the only three on the 2016-2017 depth chart is Marial Shayok.  Highly fluid is the world of basketball recruiting, which is why I don't cover it til after the commitments happen; that said, if you don't know the name Mamadi Diakite yet, learn it.

The Thursday thing was the VT game against Pitt, which I watched from start to finish, the first time I'd done so all year.  I came away with a few opinions, naturally:

-- VT gets horrible safety play.  Before the game I'd noticed, during my stat-digging, that they've been prone to giving up long pass plays, a surefire indicator that safeties aren't in the right place at the right time.  Kyshoen Jarrett's awful angle on a long Tyler Boyd touchdown, as pointed out by the announcers, drove that point home.  Their corners are more or less as advertised (which is to say, very good), but the safeties - woof.

-- Michael Brewer is a good quarterback about 25% of the time.

-- VT's offensive line is fun to watch, if you like defensive line play.  Pitt's Nicholas Grigsby is not an elite defender by anyone's measurement, but on one play he blew untouched past VT's right tackle, McLaughlin.  Eli Harold and Max Valles should have an enjoyable day on Thanksgiving weekend.

-- You would expect that at least VT's run defense would be up to snuff, but James Conner and Chad Voytik ran wild all evening.

-- Did the Hokies do anything right?  Not a lot, when you're looking at no first downs in the first quarter-and-a-half.  But besides their excellent cornerbacks, Isaiah Ford and Cam Phillips make for a very impressive pair of freshman receivers.  DT Corey Marshall did a nice job on one play of dropping back into coverage and it resulted in a pickoff, a dangerous thing for our short-tossing pass offense.  (Though, most short passes go toward the sideline rather than dunkoffs over the middle.)

I'm really rooting for Miami in Lane Stadium next week - I mean, besides the whole thing about let's not root for Tech to win anything, VT is in the middle of their special scheduling handjob the ACC gives them literally every year.  (Except last year, which caused them no end of distress about having to do something most teams routinely do.)  Seeing them go 0-for-2 on Thursdays, well, it'd be no less than they deserve for the special treatment they get.  Their next three opponents - Miami, BC, Duke - all have very strong running games, and if they don't get their run defense act together at least once, UVA will have the chance to deliver the death blow to their bowl eligibility hopes.

game preview: Kent State

Date/Time: Saturday, September 27; 3:30

TV: ESPN3

Record against the Flashes: 0-0

Last meeting: N/A

Last weekend: BYU 41, UVA 33; KSU bye

Line: UVA by 27.5

Injury report: N/A

Like UCLA before, UVA has never played Kent State.  Unlike UCLA, the Golden Flashes do not present a formidable challenge.  The Hoos have gone bowling once under Mike London, which also happens to be the only season UVA has had a winning record after five games.  That's the expectation this week, though; failure to do so wouldn't be so much a nail in the coffin - more a railroad spike.  That said, it's not a given that Kent State isn't the worst team on UVA's schedule.

-- UVA run offense vs. KSU run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 63 carries, 197 yards, 3.1 avg, 1 TD
Khalek Shepherd: 31 carries, 144 yards, 4.6 avg, 1 TD

UVA offense:
145.75 yards/game, 3.58 yards/attempt
96th of 128 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)

KSU defense:
215.0 yards/game, 4.39 yards/attempt
84th of 128 (national), 6th of 13 (MAC)

The main intrigue here is whether Khalek Shepherd is working his way past Taquan Mizzell as the second back in the offense.  He was certainly the hot hand against BYU, getting the most carries and yards of any running back on either team.  Offensive line struggles notwithstanding, Mizzell has simply been a disappointment so far, and it wouldn't surprise to see Shepherd nose into the conversation much as he did last year.

Kent State has done a respectable-ish job against teams of similar talent levels - the Ohio Bobcats didn't get much going, and South Alabama got their yards but had to grind for them - but were utterly overmatched against Ohio State.  No surprise, that.  KSU is a little undersized at defensive tackle, employing the 265-pound Nate Terhune at three-tech, though they've also eschewed the the small, quick DEs often used by college teams in favor of a pair of 250-pounders.

The ever-popular indicator of bad defense, though - safeties making all the tackles - is clear and present in the Golden Flashes' stat listing.  Starting safeties Nate Holley and Jordan Italiano combine for 64 tackles, just over a quarter of the Kent State total.  I don't expect UVA's run game to go wild, because O-line, and I'd be a little disappointed too if Steve Fairchild opened the playbook much farther.  Save something for the ACC games and all that.  But I do think UVA's top three backs will each improve on their season average, and there ought to be a Daniel Hamm sighting as well.

-- UVA pass offense vs. KSU pass defense

Quarterback:
Matt Johns: 34/58, 58.6%; 367 yards, 4 TDs, 2 INTs; 6.33 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Taquan Mizzell: 16 rec., 62 yards, 0 TDs
Canaan Severin: 15 rec., 165 yards, 2 TDs
Miles Gooch: 13 rec., 163 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
234.25 yards/game, 6.01 yards/attempt
106th of 128 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)

KSU defense:
255.7 yards/game, 9.24 yards/attempt
124th of 128 (national), 12th of 13 (MAC)

That was the good part of Kent State's defense, by the way.  If the run defense was overmatched against the Buckeyes, the pass defense was obliterated, with OSU quarterback JT Barrett averaging a first down every time he dropped back to pass.  Ohio's Derrius Vick completed 3/4ths of his passes, averaged even more yards than Barrett did, and didn't throw a pick.

The defensive stats don't look good at all.  Kent State defenders have only broken up five passes, intercepted one, and registered all of two sacks.  The latter is especially low; if anyone gets close to our quarterback on Saturday with any consistency, it'll be cause for major concern.

Who that quarterback is, is still unknown.  Mike London stated that Greyson Lambert wouldn't go unless he was 100%, and if he's 100% on his ankle after just one week that's great news, but that's a tricky thing.  The guess here is that Lambert won't play at all, with Matt Johns getting the start and David Watford first in line for any garbage time.  With Kent State undersized at corner and matching up against UVA's much larger targets, I would think multiple receivers ought to have big days, which in the current setup where everything is spread way around and there's no dominant receiver, is about five catches.

-- KSU run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Nick Holley: 25 carries, 87 yards, 0 TDs
Anthony Meray: 14 carries, 33 yards, 0 TDs

KSU offense:
47.33 yards/game, 1.95 yards/attempt
126th of 128 (national), 13th of 13 (MAC)

UVA defense:
99.75 yards/game, 2.98 yards/attempt
26th of 128 (national), 4th of 14 (ACC)

OK, so part of the problem with Kent State's run game is that they're not real good in pass protection, and have lost 50 yards to sacks.  Add that yardage back in, and they're still 118th in the country at about 2.6 yards a carry.  And this is mostly against bad teams, mind you - OSU shut them down, of course, but so has everyone.  UVA's run game isn't very good, but it does achieve a minimum level of competence.  Kent State's run game is just useless.

Lack of size is again a problem, as KSU's backs are just plain small.  Nick Holley is actually averaging 3.5 yards a carry, but it's boosted by his 20-yard scampers, one each against USA and OSU.  Take them out and he's under two yards.  The next longest run on the team belongs to quarterback Colin Reardon: nine yards.

Against a defense like UVA's, this is all pretty bad news.  This is likely to be UVA's most favorable matchup of the rest of the year.  I'd say our brilliant linebackers, Coley and Romero, are poised for a field day, but if our coaches are smart they'll rotate in guys like Micah Kiser and Zach Bradshaw nice and early.  And the defensive line might hog a bunch of the tackles before the linebackers can even get there.  You can color me surprised if Kent State even manages 50 yards on the ground; if the pass rush is on its game, the total might just be negative.

-- KSU pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Colin Reardon: 61/108, 56.5%; 553 yards, 4 TDs, 4 INTs; 5.12 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Ernest Calhoun: 15 rec., 128 yards, 0 TDs
Casey Pierce: 11 rec., 128 yards, 1 TD
Nick Holley: 11 rec., 74 yards, 1 TD

KSU offense:
185.3 yards/game, 4.83 yards/attempt
125th of 128 (national), 12th of 13 (MAC)

UVA defense:
248.8 yards/game, 6.77 yards/attempt
61st of 128 (national), 8th of 14 (ACC)

For as crummy a run game as he has supporting him, Kent State QB Colin Reardon is putting up a game effort.  Reardon is a reasonably efficient passer, all things considered, and was thrown into the fire last year as a true freshman and responded well.  He can scramble a bit, a useful talent given the protection he doesn't receive, and while he didn't light up the scoreboard against Ohio and USA, his passing wasn't the reason the Flashes lost, either.

That said, Ohio State smothered him, badly.  Kent's O-line couldn't protect him, allowing four sacks, and Reardon threw three picks as well.  UVA's defense is much closer to OSU than to Kent State's other opponents in terms of talent and athleticism, and should be expected to harass him all day.  Kent State favors shorter passes, not unlike UVA - the kind that are more easily batted down at the line.  Max Valles was made to chase down moderately scrambley quarterbacks, as well as knock down passes from ones who are 6'1" like Reardon, and ought to have himself a day.

The thing we'll all have our eyes on, though, is whether Demetrious Nicholson will make his season debut.  He's supposedly close, and this would be a good warm-up, as he'll be needed right away next week in order to help shut down Tyler Boyd of Pittsburgh.  I think Nicholson will play, even if cautiously, and even a rusty Nicholson is still an improvement over Tim Harris right now.

-- Favorability ratings

UVA run offense: 6.5
UVA pass offense: 7
UVA run defense: 9.5
UVA pass defense: 8.5

Average: 7.875

-- Outlook

Pretty darn good.  Saturday should be a fun day on defense.  UVA isn't going to win every matchup on every play on offense, and just isn't explosive enough to curb-stomp the Flashes the way OSU did.  But when KSU gets the ball, they'll simply be severely overmatched and very one-dimensional.  UVA ought to be able to set up tents in the Kent State backfield and maybe roast some marshmallows.  Anything short of a very convincing win would be a disappointment.

-- Predictions

- Demetrious Nicholson plays.

- So does Daniel Hamm.

- Greyson Lambert does not.

- UVA's top three backs - Parks, Mizzell, and Shepherd - each beat their season averages per carry, which right now are 3.1, 3.4, and 4.6.

- Kent State fails to reach 50 yards on the ground, including sacks.

- Max Valles records at least one sack and two batted passes.

Final score: UVA 34, KSU 3

-- Rest of the ACC

Bye: Georgia Tech

Boston College vs. Colorado State, 12:30 - CSU could be dangerous, but expect BC to keep rolling toward a second straight bowl nonetheless.

Virginia Tech vs. Western Michigan, 12:30 - VT just lost home games on back-to-back weekends.  Last time that happened? 1995.

Pittsburgh vs. Akron, 1:30 - The Steel-Belted Radials Bowl.

Wake Forest @ Louisville, 3:30 - Just so you know, E.J. Scott is on pace for a really nice season.

Florida State @ NC State, 3:30 - You get the feeling that FSU is headed for a drop off their #1 perch, and NC State has historically been a very rough patch for them.

North Carolina @ Clemson, 7:00 - Hahahahahaha 70 points.

Duke @ Miami, 7:30 - Actually a pretty big Coastal game.

Syracuse vs. Notre Dame, 8:00 - The historical first of Notre Dame's contracted ACC games.  Face it, Domers - it's basically your first-ever conference game.

game preview: Louisville

Date/Time: Saturday, September 13; 12:30

TV: ESPN3

Record against the Cardinals: 1-1

Last meeting: UVA 16, UL 15; 10/28/89, Charlottesville

Last weekend: UVA 45, UR 13; UL 66, Murr. St. 21

Line: Louisville by 6.5

Injury report:

Virginia:

OUT: CB Demetrious Nicholson, OT Jay Whitmire
DOUBTFUL: None
QUESTIONABLE: CB Drequan Hoskey, OT Sadiq Olanrewaju
PROBABLE: None

Louisville:

OUT:
DOUBTFUL:
QUESTIONABLE:
PROBABLE:

Coming to town is a team that UVA has played twice in about 120 years of football; the Hoos have longer histories with Western Michigan and Tulane than the Cardinals.  So it's only natural that they should be a permanent rival, right, ACC?  There's no need to work on the schedule or realign or anything.

This shouldn't be taken as a slap to Louisville (who themselves would rather be lined up with Cuse or something) because if I actually hated Louisville I'd want to play them more. We can lay claim to the South's Oldest Rivalry, and now we can add the South's (nay, the World's) Most Artificial Rivalry too.

Oh well.  It's a conference game, so it's important, and, even though Kentucky has as much Atlantic coastline as British Columbia, I always saw the ACC as a southern conference rather than an eastern one.  Louisville's a reasonable fit along those lines.  And since we do have to deal with these guys every year for who knows how long, we might as well beat 'em.

-- UVA run offense vs. UL run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 30 carries, 107 yards, 3.6 ypc, 1 TD
Taquan Mizzell: 17 carries, 47 yards. 2.8 ypc, 1 TD

UVA offense:
138.5 yards/game, 3.51 yards/attempt
98th of 127 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)

UL defense:
55.5 yards/game, 2.41 yards/attempt
22nd of 127 (national), 2nd of 14 (ACC)

I get the feeling this is going to be a yearlong issue.  It may be bad enough to sink the good ship London.  It was easy to rationalize a tough day against UCLA; Richmond, not so much.  Steve Fairchild gets a lot of flak for using the short passing game too much.  I think part of the reason he does that is, that's the running game.

Injuries have certainly not helped the matter, and there's a chance that situation could improve a little this week.  Sadiq Olanrewaju has missed the first two games, but he could be available on Saturday.  To tell the truth, I don't think it'll make a huge noticeable difference.  The problem is the lack of push in the middle.

Evaluating Louisville's run defense is tricky, since half of the sample is Murray State, which of course they dominated.  The linebackers have done well so far, with 6 TFLs among them, exactly what you'd expect from a 3-4 defense.  What makes things tricky for UVA is that the Cards also more or less shut down Duke Johnson of Miami, who needed 20 carries to get to 90 yards.  That by itself is plenty reason enough to think Louisville's defense is more than capable of winning this week's matchup.

It'll be interesting to see, if Olanrewaju is healthy enough to play - does he start, and if so, how does the lineup get shuffled?  Mooney to guard, or back to second string?  I suspect it'd mean more rotation than we've had in the first two games.  Unlike many 3-4 defenses, Louisville doesn't have three battleship-sized linemen, owing to the fact that it's their first year in the system, so there's a little hope for some up-front push.  But I wouldn't expect things to suddenly improve by half a yard a carry.

-- UVA pass offense vs. UL pass defense

Quarterbacks:
Greyson Lambert: 29/38, 76.3%; 214 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs; 5.63 yards/attempt
Matt Johns: 17/29, 58.6%; 219 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT; 7.55 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Taquan Mizzell: 11 rec., 41 yards, 0 TDs
Darius Jennings: 7 rec., 118 yards, 1 TD
Canaan Severin: 7 rec., 88 yards, 2 TDs

UVA offense:
219.5 yards/game, 6.5 yards/attempt
86th of 127 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)

UL defense:
212.5 yards/game, 6.3 yards/attempt
57th of 127 (national), 7th of 14 (ACC)

Yes, it's infuriating to list two quarterbacks.  Mike London said something after the UCLA game about rotating quarterbacks being no different than rotating the other positions on the field, which eerily mirrors something Al Groh said when he couldn't decide between Matt Schaub and Bryson Spinner.  For the sake of his own tenure, I wish London could make a damn decision.  I'd say that I want one of them to separate himself, but that's basically saying "I hope one of them sucks."  So, no.

The good news is that there's some signs of breakout in the receiving corps.  Canaan Severin had a big game against Richmond and appears to be starting to come into his own, even though he's not listed first-string on the depth chart.  The coaches have raved about Doni Dowling's preparation and rewarded him accordingly, and Darius Jennings is on his way to the kind of production we need from a senior.  A ton of different players have caught passes this year; I suspect this will be a game that starts to narrow the field some.

Fairchild has made a huge concerted effort to get Smoke Mizzell the ball in the passing game; small wonder, as he came in with a reputation as an advanced pass-catcher for a running back.  The problem is, it hasn't worked.  Mizzell is averaging a puny 3.7 yards a catch, barely enough for a first down if you tried it three times in a row.  Neither the running backs nor the tight ends have been anything close to a reliable threat in the passing game, which is putting more pressure on the receivers.

Fortunately, the O-line has done a decent job of pass protection, at least on paper.  The only sack was a garbage-time sack on David Watford by Richmond.  That's the good news.  The bad news is, I think that's a bit misleading.  The O-line spoke proudly of not having allowed a sack against UCLA, but left out the time a UCLA linebacker ran back an INT on account of Lambert almost getting killed by the rush.  Plus, our QB's haven't exactly been doing a seven-step drop.  The short passing game contributes a lot to the lack of opposing pass rush.

For their part, Louisville hasn't generated a great deal of pressure, so UVA's quarterbacks should at least be grass-stain free, for the most part.  The Cards did intercept Miami's Brad Kaaya twice, but five of their seven PBUs were against Murray State.  Their pass defense appears to be a little behind their run defense in adapting to the 3-4.

I do see one big potential advantage for UVA: A short passing game like we tend to run, forces the linebackers into coverage fairly often, and UL's linebackers are mostly converted D-linemen from the 4-3.  Can they cover the slot as consistently as Fairchild will probably make them?  We'll see.

-- UL run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Dominique Brown: 38 carries, 183 yards, 4.8 ypc, 2 TDs
Brandon Radcliff: 15 carries, 97 yards, 6.5 ypc, 2 TDs

UL offense:
227.5 yards/game, 4.95 yards/attempt
48th of 127 (national), 6th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
87.5 yards/game, 2.50 yards/attempt
24th of 127 (national), 3rd of 14 (ACC)

Louisville was supposed to have a tandem this year - according to plan, Michael Dyer would've split carries with Dominique Brown in a classic thunder-and-lightning combo.  The lightning is missing, leaving 235-pound thunderback Brown to take the carries.

Brown was held back from most of the Murray State game after topping 30 carries and 140+ yards against Miami, likely to keep him healthy.  If Dyer's sore thigh keeps him out again this weekend, Brown will probably carry the ball most of the time, with L.J. Scott first in line to spell him.  Scott piled up yards against Murray State, but only had three carries (and went nowhere) against Miami.

The UVA defense, though, is easily Louisville's toughest test so far.  Henry Coley and Daquan Romero are two dominant linebackers.  Possibly the most interesting development, though, is Max Valles's ten tackles.  Early returns on Valles are that he's becoming the all-around player UVA needs him to be.  He's been a presence in the run game, which gives UVA three outstanding linebackers, and he's been joined by Eli Harold, who's coming along the same path.  Louisville has a competent running game, but they're the ones not sleeping easy in this matchup.

-- UL pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Will Gardner: 33/50, 66.0%; 339 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs; 6.78 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Eli Rogers: 10 rec., 110 yards, 0 TDs
Gerald Christian: 9 rec., 91 yards, 2 TDs
Kai De La Cruz: 6 rec., 63 yards, 1 TD

UL offense:
242.0 yards/game, 7.2 yards/attempt
64th of 127 (national), 5th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
302.5 yards/game, 7.5 yards/attempt
92nd of 127 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

Now that is surprising - I did not at all expect to see UVA sitting on the very bottom of the conference in pass defense.  Thinking back, maybe it shouldn't be.  Richmond moved the ball pretty well through the air.  We haven't had our top cornerback - Tra Nicholson - in the game all season, and he won't be back for this one either.  This plus DreQuan Hoskey's questionable status means lots of Tim Harris, and Harris has been getting picked on all season.  He's been very obviously bad so far, getting beaten for most of the big plays UVA has given up.

On the plus side, the pass rush has been among the best in the country.  Valles has been a particular fiend, but there are players along the line (Harold, for example) who've been getting a lot more push than their sack numbers show.

Louisville's Will Gardner has been plenty effective so far, in his first season at the helm.  Gardner carved up Miami pretty effectively, to the tune of 20 completions on 28 attempts, and two touchdowns.  And he's done it without the help of DeVante Parker, who was expected to be one of the top receivers in the league.  Parker underwent foot surgery, oh, right about the exact same time I wrote my ACC preview.  Louisville hasn't found a huge big-play threat yet so far, with Eli Rogers, Kai De La Cruz, and James Quick, plus TE Gerald Christian, all averaging only about 10 yards per catch.  But they've all been dependable, and Louisville has moved the ball well in the passing game.

With Gardner owning a high completion rate, and UVA allowing one, it's plenty likely we'll see more of the same there.  UVA's CB depth is being sorely tested, and the Hoos haven't pressed up much in coverage - something Louisville will be happy to take advantage of.  The pass rush needs to be consistent all day, as any letup will probably result in a long scoring drive.

-- Favorability ratings

- UVA run offense: 3
- UVA pass offense: 3.5
- UVA run defense: 6.5
- UVA pass defense: 4

Average: 4.25

-- Outlook

Look around a bit and you can find a few pundits picking UVA in this one.  Cool, but I think a lot of that is based on a good showing against possibly-overrated UCLA.  I gotta see more out of the run game, a pass game that legitimately threatens some explosive plays no matter who's under center, and better cornerback play.  Louisville should be well-equipped to nullify a lot of our advantage in pass defense, and seems likely to overcome our defense just enough to hold off our offense.

-- Predictions

-- No UVA RB tops 70 yards rushing.

-- Canaan Severin builds on his Richmond game, with at least five more catches.

-- Greyson Lambert begins to take hold of the QB job, with stats that start to separate him from Johns.  For one, he throws no picks while Johns throws at least one.

-- Will Gardner completes 2/3 of his passes or more.

-- UVA's sack numbers fall to no more than two.

-- Louisville has at least twice as many passing yards as running yards.

Final score: UL 24, UVA 14

-- Rest of the ACC

Virginia Tech vs. East Carolina - 12:00 - It'd be really cool if VT's win over Ohio State last week means that OSU actually really sucks.  Indirectly, an ECU win (which has happened before) would really knock the Big Ten off its hinges.

Georgia Tech vs. Georgia Southern - 12:00 - Georgia Southern very nearly knocked off NC State in the season opener.

Pittsburgh @ Florida Int'l - 12:00 - Why is an ACC team visiting FIU?  Recruiting, probably, but c'mon.

Syracuse @ Central Michigan - 12:00 - Cuse doesn't even have that excuse.

Miami vs. Arkansas State - 3:30 - Things are bad in Hooville when ESPNU picks this game over a conference matchup.

NC State @ South Florida - 3:30 - NC State has been playing with fire in its comparatively weak OOC schedule, and now goes on the road just to turn up the heat a bit.

Duke vs. Kansas - 3:30 - Charlie Weis is the country's greatest offensive genius, if you're asking Charlie Weis.  This would be a good chance for him to take some notes.

Wake Forest @ Utah State - 7:00 - This rounds out the sweep; ACC teams are playing opponents from all of the so-called Group of Five conferences this week.

Boston College vs. USC - 8:00 - Not gonna be pretty.

2013-2014 Cavalier of the Year

There's one last thing to do before plunging headlong into the 2014-2015 season and the pre-basketball autumn diversion that begins it.  There's an award to hand out, and, due to popular demand, it comes once again with the traditional crappy photoshop of the winner:

This was definitely one of the more interesting votes we've had.  From the get-go it was a three-way race, and I think Joe Harris's candidacy was assisted just enough by his signature on a three-year contract with the Cleveland Cavaliers in recent days.  Two of those years are guaranteed, a very rare move for a second-round pick in the NBA and as much of a guarantee as you'll ever see that Harris has made the team.  Cleveland has been working on Harris's supporting cast ever since drafting him.  For now he'll have to do with some castoff from the Miami Heat, but Joe has faced down similar challenges in the past and I'm sure he'll be willing to share some of his shots.

Harris was actually not my own vote for the winner, but I think his story is a fantastic one regardless.  We have been phenomenally privileged to watch his career in Charlottesville - the kid from Chelan, Washington, who took a chance on a struggling program, worked his butt off for four years and rewarded himself, his coach, and his fans with a long-sought championship, taken from the ACC's Darth Vader under some of the brightest spotlights in the country.  And now he gets to go play with basketball's biggest star on basketball's biggest stage.  Four years of humble and hard-working, excellent basketball, rewarded with a championship and a multi-million dollar contract - it's a story you never seen in college hoops anymore.

For posterity, here are the voting results:

Joe Harris - 39
Morgan Brian - 36
Danielle Collins - 24
Jasmine Burton - 12
Nathan Kirby - 5
Kevin Parks - 3
Mark Cockerton, Alex Domijan, JB Kolod - 1
Elly Buckley, Denny McCarthy, Nick Sulzer, Courtney Swan - 0

Harris wins with one of the lowest (if not the lowest) vote totals in voting history, but that's much more a testament to the strength of the competition this year.  Collins put a national championship trophy in the case and Brian is one of the 8 or 10 best players of her sport in the whole country, not just in college.  Congrats to the winner and the nominees for once again representing the University of Virginia with nothing but the best.

FOV Cavalier of the Year #3/#4

From Old Virginia celebrates its birthday in a unique way: by recognizing one of Virginia's student-athletes as the Cavalier of the Year. What are the criteria for the award? You decide; that's the beauty. I nominate the 12 athletes that I think have been the most outstanding during the latest season of UVA athletics, and provide a short summary of their accomplishments. You choose the winner in a poll that goes up after all 12 have had their moment in the spotlight. The full list of nominees is here.  

Over the next few weeks, two athletes at a time will be profiled, and you'll hear about what they've accomplished while representing Mr. Jefferson's University this year. The athletes are presented in a totally random order so as to hopefully not imply any endorsement one way or another. Athletes from all fields are considered; the point is to emphasize that UVA is about excellence across the entire department and doesn't shortchange its so-called non-revenue sports simply because they don't make headlines.  Today's athletes: Joe Harris and Jasmine Burton.

Joe Harris - Men's basketball - Small forward

Team accomplishments:

-- ACC regular-season and tournament champions
-- NCAA tournament #1 seed
-- NCAA Sweet Sixteen

Personal accomplishments:

-- 2nd-team all-ACC (coaches)
-- 3rd-team all-ACC (media)
-- ACC Tournament MVP
-- USBWA District 3 team
-- NABC Good Works team
-- Lowe's Senior CLASS candidate
-- WINA Award (top UVa men's athlete)

This is theoretically my big chance to wax poetic about the career of a UVa basketball player who'll surely be remembered as one of the all-time greats, and here I am failing to find the words.  Maybe that's a compliment in and of itself.  True, now, Joe Harris didn't have quite the individual season he had as a junior, but you have to admit the team that he captained improved a little.

Harris finished his career 11th on UVa's all-time scoring list, comfortably between Curtis Staples and J.R. Reynolds, and his senior year was his second on various all-ACC lists.  He capped his individual achievements with an MVP plaque at the ACC tournament, which was no sop to his status as a team leader - he averaged 15.7 points during the tourney, three of which came as the coup de grace to Duke's comeback chances.

The athletic program itself then honored Harris as the school's top male athlete, which by itself makes a pretty good case for Harris's selection as COY as well.  There's a bit of a lifetime-achievement aspect to Harris's nomination here; from the time he decided to take a chance on traveling 3,000 miles to a school he'd never given a thought to until he stood atop the podium in Greensboro, Harris has had one of the most enjoyable-to-follow UVa careers of any that ever suited up.  But anyone who leads the charge in bringing a long, long-awaited ACC basketball championship back to UVa is a damn good candidate just on the strength of one fantastic weekend.  

Jasmine Burton - Volleyball - Outside hitter

Team accomplishments:

-- First ACC winning record since 2008

Personal accomplishments:

-- ACC Freshman of the Year
-- VaSID Freshman of the Year
-- 3rd team all-ACC
-- Two-time ACC Freshman of the Week

I think the number of words I've ever written about the volleyball team could fit on one sheet of paper, in big type.  No volleyball player has ever been nominated for FOV COY.  Time to change that.  This is a team on the rise, earning an 11-9 record in the ACC after spending a long time as a doormat.  A big part of that was a very good freshman class, which was led by Jasmine Burton.

ACC Freshman of the Year is a common award for an FOV COY nominee, but Burton, I think, rises a little higher than many such nominees.  She had competition for that award even on her own team, but she won it not just by being a good freshman player but by being one of the team's best, period.  Only two players on the roster of 18 started more matches, and Burton was third on the team in most major statistics.

The best accomplishment, though: helping to lead a UVa team back to relevancy.  If the point here is pride in the whole program, that doesn't leave room for any stragglers.  I'm pleased to see the volleyball team starting to make noise again, and hopefully Burton and her classmates build on that momentum for a few years.