series preview: Maryland

Date/Time: Fri.-Sun., 6/5-6/7; 4:00, 3:00, 3:00
(Sunday if necessary)

TV: ESPNUVA on Fri. and Sat., ESPNUVA or ESPN2 on Sun.

Record against the Terps: 111-80-1

Last meeting: UVA 2-1 over Maryland (4-5, 7-3, 11-2); 6/7-6/9/14, Charlottesville (NCAA Super Regional)

Last weekend:
UVA won Lake Elsinore Regional (6-1 over USC, 3-1 over SDSU, 14-10 over USC)

Maryland won Los Angeles Regional (3-1 over Ole Miss, 4-1 over UCLA, 2-4 to UCLA, 2-1 over UCLA)

Pitching probables:

Friday:
RHP Connor Jones (6-2, 2.90, 101 Ks) vs. RHP Mike Shawaryn (13-2, 1.66, 133 Ks)

Saturday:
LHP Brandon Waddell (3-5, 4.12, 74 Ks) vs. RHP Brian Shaffer (5-1, 4.57, 52 Ks)

Sunday:
RHP Alec Bettinger (4-5, 4.89, 62 Ks) vs. RHP Ryan Selmer (3-1, 1.86, 19 Ks)

(Friday's have been released officially.  Saturday and Sunday are wild guesses of my own.  Bettinger got nuked last weekend but it's not like we're loaded down with other options.  Selmer only has three starts this season for Maryland but two were in the postseason and the other was the week before.)

Hosting a super regional is almost old hat for UVA.  The way we got here this year is not.  The combination of circumstances it took to make that happen had some astronomical odds attached.  Funny sport, though, baseball.  So much of it is mental, and so much of the mental aspect comes from confidence and having been there before.  UVA is just about officially that team that won't die til you stab the heart.

Course, maybe being at home isn't the greatest thing, the way UVA has struggled (relatively speaking) at Davenport and been so good on the road.  And you can bet the opponent wants blood.  Revenge will be on the Terps' mind, after they were just one win away from Omaha last year at the same venue.  UVA doesn't have nearly the team it had last year, on paper, and that pitching staff still is what it is: thinner than cheap beer.  D1Baseball gives UVA the edge absolutely nowhere on the field - but gives the Hoos the intangibles edge.  Sometimes that's all it takes.

The scouting report on Maryland:

-- First base: Kevin Biondic (.182-0-9).  Almost certain to bat ninth. Biondic has been in and out of the lineup all year as the Terps hunted for back-of-the-order hitters who could, uh, hit.

-- Second base: Brandon Lowe (.329-9-53).  Maryland's park is a bandbox, with the deepest part being about 370 or so, and right-handers in particular can hit balls out like it's nothing.  You have to take most RH power numbers with a grain of salt.  Lowe, however, is a lefty.  He leads Maryland in nearly all conceivable categories, including HBP, and is entrenched in the 3-hole in the lineup.

-- Third base: Jose Cuas (.241-11-53).  The book on Cuas is much the same as last year: not the world's greatest contact hitter and strikes out too often, but when he gets his bat on the ball it can really fly.  Typically bats fifth.

-- Shortstop: Kevin Smith (.274-7-35).  Not much sticks out.  Smith is a good player, was described as such in the "opposing coach breakdown" on D1Baseball, and never mentioned again.  He bats second, and basically does his job, neither striking the fear of God into anyone, nor acting the automatic out.

-- Left field: Tim Lewis (.215-0-32).  Not an ounce of pop in his bat and never has been, but he can wheel around the bases and has five triples to show for his efforts.  He was a much better hitter last year and has lost almost eighty points off his average this year.  Bats in the bottom third of the order.

-- Center field: LaMonte Wade (.344-4-29).  Missed a portion of the season.  As tough an out as there is in the Maryland lineup, with 29 walks against only 16 strikeouts.  Natural and obvious leadoff hitter.

-- Right field: Anthony Papio (.261-6-25).  Fills out the sixth or seventh spot in the order.  Not a frightening hitter.  Last year I called him a strikeout machine; this is still true as he has 61 of them.  Still, one of only two players to start every game.

-- Catcher: Kevin Martir (.339-7-44).  A good hitter who holds down the cleanup spot and makes a very difficult middle of the order hitting behind Lowe.  You can run him ragged on the basepaths, though; he's only thrown out nine of 37 basestealers.

-- Designated hitter: Nick Cieri (.305-3-27).  Much better hitter than he was last year, when he was the only freshman in the starting lineup.  Usually bats sixth or seventh.

-- Pitching staff:

Friday: RHP Mike Shawaryn.  Only a sophomore, Shawaryn is one of the top pitchers in the country.  Lots of national recognition: first-team all-American, national team roster, etc.  UVA avoided Dillon Tate, so this is easily the toughest pitcher they've faced in the postseason.  Shawaryn doesn't have an overpowering fastball or anything like a nasty slider, but he commands his pitches exceptionally well and his changeup has developed big-time just over the course of this season.

Saturday: RHP Brian Shaffer.  A guess here.  Shaffer has been the second pitcher on the hill in the B1G tourney and the regional as well.  Shaffer's a tall, lanky righty at 6'5", 181, who throws to a ton of contact.  He's walked just 9 in 61 innings this year, and - rare for a college pitcher - hasn't hit any batters.  You have to hit him.  He doesn't have overpowering stuff at all, and relies on his defense.  If your hits find the gaps, you'll knock him off the bump early.  That said, he threw 7 innings against top Big Ten team Illinois, in the tournament, and shut them down hard.

Sunday: RHP Ryan Selmer.  Another guess.  Like Shaffer, a freshman, but even taller at 6'8".  To make things more fun, he's a sinkerballer, though that part of the scouting report might've been influenced by how high he throws the ball from to begin with.  He doesn't strike out many hitters, but it's really hard to hit the ball in the air against a guy like this.

Bullpen: Maryland has a really good 8-9 setup in Alex Robinson and closer Kevin Mooney.  Mooney was a roller coaster last year; this year, opponents are batting .131.  Robinson is a really hard-throwing lefty; he walks lots of guys, strikes out even more, and also barely allows any hits.  The kind of pitcher who really messes up your approach after you've seen seven innings of righties without elite velocity.  Maryland will also heavily use Zach Morris and Robert Galligan, both also lefties.  Galligan is a long, long reliever, good for more than once through the order if necessary, and could start a game.

-- Synopsis: It's hard to believe Maryland is the only thing standing between UVA and Omaha.  After all that's gone on this season, Omaha is two wins away.  Incredible.

Maryland is no pushover.  They have a very decided advantage on the mound.  More bullpen depth, more bullpen talent, a true ace in Shawaryn, and far better options on Sunday than UVA can pull out.  At least on paper.  Nathan Kirby has been kinda sorta cleared to pitch, but nobody should be expecting him to swoop into the rescue.

That means, like the regional, this series is on the shoulders of Connor Jones and Brandon Waddell.  Jones is the best we got right now.  Waddell has struggled, but he pitched a beauty against SDSU and Maryland is probably a slight downgrade at the plate from the Aztecs.

At the plate is where UVA has the edge.  D1Baseball called it a push, but Maryland's home run numbers, especially on all their right-handed hitters (and they have many), thanks to the phone booth they play in.  And oh yeah the conference they play in - even though the Big Ten put two other teams in the tourney, it was still crappy most of the rest of the way down the standings.  If the UVA lineup can get to Shawaryn, look out.

This is a pretty evenly-matched series, so if I were a faraway objective observer, I'd give the edge to Maryland in three games.  Pitching staff.  Intangibles could swing this series wildly in either direction, though.  Does Maryland have a healthy sense of revenge?  Does UVA's pitching hit a wall and fold?  Or do Maryland's freshmen - and they have quite a few in the lineup and on the hill, including Shaffer and Selmer - get all wide-eyed and shaky while UVA's battle-tested group buckles down to business?  Fascinating storylines and Omaha at stake.  Doesn't get much better.

turtle stomping day

I felt like yesterday's game deserved not to wait til Monday for a reaction, then I wondered why.  Trash thrown on the floor, cheers and obscenities hurled at injured players, and whiny Duke-like bitching about the referees that put the home team in the bonus less than three minutes into the second half - in short, there was nothing out of the ordinary for a basketball game night in College Park.

ESPN, the ACC, and the Big Ten conspired to slap UVA in the face with a trip to the most poisonous atmosphere in hoops (although, since my contention is that that decision was made right about the time Maryland announced their departure, they probably did so before UVA was a conference champ) and the Hoos responded like you want a top-ten team to do.  In a game that wasn't as close as the double-digit margin of victory indicated, the Hoos kept their composure perfectly and walked out of the Terrible Customer Service Center with a very big win.

"Composure" truly is the word of the day.  It's a testament either to Justin Anderson's class or good sense that he doesn't stare down the Maryland student section (which is known for never cheering for football or basketball players who decommit from elsewhere in favor of Maryland, because that sort of thing is uncouth) and crotch-grab every time he scores.  It's a testament to Tony Bennett's Zen-like calmness that he didn't pile up eight technicals after watching the Big Ten refs compete to see who could call the ticky-tackest foul.  And it's a testament to Tony's style and the whole team's buy-in that the game might as well have been played in a church for all the team seemed to outwardly care about the environment.

I am, by the way, not interested in hearing about Dez Wells or Evan Smotrycz, the Terps' walking wounded who missed the game.  Neither is at all indispensible on the defensive end - particularly Smotrycz - and UVA turned in their second-best offensive performance of the season, after only the Tennessee State game.  The Hoos dominated the interior scoring game; in fact, other than Devon Hall and Isaiah Wilkins, who took a shot each and missed it (as well as those who never attempted one) every single UVA player shot .500 or better from two.

There's every reason to believe this team will go places.  (Not that there wasn't before, but it's still nice to have confirmation.)  While I don't really believe in the "defense travels" meme, there's still likely to be something to the idea that good defensive teams are also good at consistency - or maybe more specifically, Tony Bennett's team are really good at consistency, because it's a necessary condition of being this damn good at a defensive system.  The ACC is shaping up to have three main contenders.  Being one of them right now is all you can ask for.

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-- A butterfly flaps its wings in New York and in College Park, a foul is called.  Possibly the best coaching job of the night was Tony Bennett orchestrating the rotation so that nobody fouled out - even while missing Darion Atkins most of the game and Justin Anderson for a big chunk of it.

-- Not only did Justin Anderson not travel after that rebound (he did in fact dribble a couple times), he was fouled on the play.  The refs just decided that one time to let Jake Layman go over the back without a whistle.  This by the way was after Layman managed to make it from the top of the key to the low block without a single dribble, this in the first half.

-- Which is a better conference - one with three probably-elite teams at the top, an assortment of good to very good ones, and a horrible bottom half?  Or one with one possibly-elite team and a whole huge pack of very good ones?  The results say the latter, I guess - but the way things tend to be defined in the end, which all comes down to tournament performance, the ACC is likely to nose out the Big Ten.  It's worth noting that the B1G has six ranked teams and all but one lost in the Challenge.

-- This is fun:

Running offense against Kentucky or Louisville is like driving through a tornado — it’s complete chaos, things are flying at you from all angles, and you’re probably crapping your pants as it’s happening. But if you keep your cool and get a little lucky, you can survive. Meanwhile, running offense against Virginia is like driving into a brick wall — you can stay where you are and be perfectly safe, but there’s only one way to get where you want, and that wall isn’t going anywhere.

And the whole rest of it also happens to be exactly the kind of positive press that attracts attention of the best kind.

-- Don't forget that there's soccer this weekend.  The kind of football UVA is good at.  The women are on ESPNU, Friday at 5, and the men on Saturday at 1, on the Georgetown free video site.

catching up

Let's pretend for a minute that this is a UVA blog and that we should talk about a few UVA things that have gone on.  Not training camp, mostly; it's never been my style to ruthlessly dissect every nugget, because most of them are the same claptrap every year.  Defensive coordinators talk about their aggressive defense; somebody is "really making his mark" and then promptly disappears the moment the games begin; the schemes are "adding new wrinkles" or "focusing on the basics" and either is an improvement.  Like clockwork.  I prefer to wait til it's all over and then sift through the results.  So maybe a few football things, but not all.

-- The Maryland lawsuit saga is finally over, with both sides agreeing basically not to bother each other any more and no more money changing hands.  The ACC has withheld about $31 million, and agreed not to go after any more in exchange for Maryland not trying to get any of it back.  One Sabreite theorizes, based on whatever source he has, that the settlement has to do with a future ACC Network, and the lawsuit being a real drag on those plans because the ACC would've had a hard time calling itself damaged by the loss of Maryland while at the same time firing up the money machine.  

That may be, but I have a simpler (albeit not mutually exclusive) theory: now that Maryland's officially gone, collecting any further damages requires actually being written a check by Maryland rather than simply not giving them any money.  This was unlikely to happen without an order from whatever was the highest court that deigned to hear the case following the usual lineup of appeals, which means that if the ACC really wanted to pursue this, they probably weren't getting paid until like 2018.  Maryland's case was always tenuous and slightly nonsensical - it was based on the idea that since they didn't vote for the higher exit fee they shouldn't have to pay it.  Accepting that argument would more or less require any private organization to have unanimous consent of its members to do anything at all, so it was bound to go nowhere fast.  Maryland had an excellent incentive to just let the whole thing drop.

-- I include this football article mainly to point out the likelihood that the Hoos will have neither Dominique Terrell nor Jay Whitmire this coming year.  Best guess: the coaches will do everything they can to get Whitmire in the lineup only if they get the notion that he won't get a medical redshirt (which would give him a 6th year of eligibilty.)  If they think he can get the NCAA waiver, he'll sit the year.

-- This is an excellent article, I think, on freshman guard B.J. Stith.  B.J. has some unique challenges in front of him, following in dad Bryant's footsteps at UVA, and you really get the impression that both of them understand the nature of it.  And that B.J. is more than mature enough to handle it.

-- Speaking of handling things, Evan Nolte went out and did silly college things and we now get to know about it because he's a basketball player and not just some dude.  Actually the story is sort of funny.  CPD went easy on him, which is nice.

-- ESPN released their "Big Monday" schedule (I think Monday's kind of an annoying day for the big weekly hoops showcase, but whatever) and guess who leads the ACC in appearances?  UVA has games featured against UNC, Pitt, and Syracuse.  Only UNC has as many as three games featured.  Duke and UNC will still have their rivalry hyped to the moon and back, but still.

-- Cleveland is becoming the home of UVA sportsters of all types.  Tim Smith signed with the Browns last week; this sees him join Joe Harris, of course with the Cavaliers, and Kyle Crockett pitching for the Indians with Mike Papi in the Indians' system with middle-A Lake County.  Smith's chances of making the Browns' final roster are certainly slim, but exposure is exposure.

Cleveland is all well and good, but personally I'm having even more fun following the exploits of Artie Lewicki (middle-A West Michigan) and Whit Mayberry (high-A Lakeland) in the Tigers' system.  Both are pitching very, very well, in case you were wondering.

acc you later

Maryland has some competitors in the upcoming women's track and field NCAA championships, but, whatever.  They'll run or jump or whatever they do and it won't make a ripple.  For all real intents and purposes, UVA just closed the book on 60-ish years of Maryland and the ACC.  You can leave the exit fee right there in the clubhouse.  Cash only, please, no checks.

Last time the Hoos tripped out to Omaha, major drama was involved.  No such doings this time.  UVA took Maryland's best shot, reeled a tiny bit, and then let slip the dogs of war.  The most meaningful run Maryland would score in games 2 and 3 was a single scratch-out against Brandon Waddell on Sunday, tying game 2 at 1 run each; UVA got that one right back the next chance they got and the Terps would from then on score only too late.  I guess going from 6-0 to 6-2 counts as a miniature rally, but Nick Howard needed exactly one pitch to snuff it and by the time he returned to the hill, he'd been given five more runs to work with.  Not that he needed it; just a little something to put the home crowd in a good mood.

It should worry UVA's Omaha opponents that the Hoos won these games without major contributions from their best players.  Nathan Kirby pitched very eh on Friday, and was still almost bailed out.  Nick Howard didn't even throw until game 3, then threw one pitch of any import and then, well, it's not like he was the only guy who could've protected that nine-run lead.  Mike Papi came to the plate in the 8th on Monday, with his team already ridiculously comfortable in their lead, and the announcers pointed out he was the only one not to reach base that night.  (And then he hit a double.)

The CWS field is now set, of course, with UVA learning their opponent about 15 minutes after getting up from the dogpile.  That will be Ole Miss.  Vengeance Tour '14 is now flipped on its head, with Mississippi awaiting in Omaha and UC-Irvine on the other side of the bracket, and let's hope the revenge trail has gone cold.  The Rebs are several steps up from the kind of competition UVA has faced so far.  That game will be Sunday in prime time.  Halfway there, folks.

More stuff:

-- The CWS schedule meshes just beautifully with the World Cup.  UVA plays on the 15th; USA vs. Ghana is a day later.  USA vs. Portugal is the 22nd, which happens to be the day in between the "if necessaries" for the double-elimination round and the start of the best-of-three; USA vs. Germany is the day after Game 3.

-- I absolutely need to single out Joe McCarthy because his 3rd-inning base hit was pure hit-and-run perfection.  The ball skipped merrily through the exact spot that had been recently vacated by the base-covering shortstop.

-- Last weekend the regional announcer said that this was a much more athletic UVA team than ones he'd seen in the past.  After seeing some of the leaps to the top of the dogpile, I believe it.

-- Is there a worse feeling in baseball than leaving your glove on the wrong side of the fence and then having to chase down an eventual triple?   That has to be even worse than if the ball had landed over the fence too.

-- I don't know whether 17 hits is the more amazing stat, or 15 singles.

-- Omaha and a basketball title (and the Sweet 16) in one year; not too shabby.

series preview: Maryland

Date/Time: Sat-Mon, June 7-9; 12:00, 12:00, 4:00
(Monday game is if necessary)

TV: ESPN2

Record against the Terps: 109-79-1

Last meeting: Md. 7, UVA 6; 5/22/14, Greensboro, NC (ACC tournament)

Last weekend:
UVA won Charlottesville regional (10-1 over Bucknell, 3-0 over Arkansas, 9-2 over Arkansas)
Maryland won Columbia regional (4-3 over ODU, 4-3 over South Carolina, 10-1 over South Carolina)

Pitching probables:

Saturday:
LHP Nathan Kirby (9-1, 1.36, 102 Ks) vs. RHP Jake Stinnett (7-6, 2.65, 130 Ks)

Sunday:
LHP Brandon Waddell (8-3, 2.73, 63 Ks) vs. RHP Mike Shawaryn (11-3, 2.81, 70 Ks)

Monday:
RHP Artie Lewicki (6-1, 1.72, 46 Ks) vs. LHP Jake Drossner (4-1, 2.45, 55 Ks)

(These are my own guesses; neither school has put them out there yet.)

Regional weekend was full of carnage this year.  Should make for an interesting College World Series.  Three of eight national seeds advanced and only seven of 16 regional hosts.  Only one super-regional pits regional hosts against each other, and two will be hosted by teams that didn't have their own regional.  The big winner: the Big 12, which sent five teams to the tournament and watched four of them win regionals.  The ACC was only 2 for 7 in that regard; the Pac-12, 1 for 5; and the SEC, a miserable 2 for 10.  Even the Big Ten was having a terrific year by its standards until regional play began; two teams represented the conference, one as a host and one as a two-seed, and both lost.

On Vengeance Tour '14, UVA got its first taste of sweet revenge by blowing Arkansas out of the water.  South Carolina would've been up next, but Maryland had other ideas, which is OK because the Hoos can simply refocus their revenge efforts on more recent events.  More interestingly, the Sunday contest will be the very last time a Maryland team takes the field (or court, or whatever) with the ACC logo on their chest.  (Or Monday.)

(Of course, with UC-Irvine and Ole Miss still in the field, if UVA makes it to Omaha we'll have to hope for a real quick end to Vengeance Tour '14, or rename it the Continued Dominance Tour or something.  Could you imagine if both UVA and Irvine made it to the final of finals in Omaha?  That'd be a really fascinating matchup.)

Then again, I forget myself.  Maryland first.  They're having a historically fantastic season, and while they shouldn't be quite on UVA's level, it's baseball and anything can happen.  You get to this level, you take them all seriously.  And in this case, winning would be awesome but losing would be even worse than winning would be good.  Here's the deal with the Terps:

Scouting report:

-- First base: LaMonte Wade (.259-2-24).  2nd hitter.  Main asset at the plate is a very good batting eye; leads team in walks with 35.  Has a little bit of pop but sometimes struggles to make contact and strikes out a little bit more than you want from a 2 hitter.

-- Second base: Brandon Lowe (.341-1-39).  3rd hitter.  Redshirt freshman hits for a lot of contact; leads team in average (.341) and slugging average (.467) despite only one home run.  Very tough out; 33 walks against just 18 strikeouts.

-- Third base: Jose Cuas (.266-5-42).  Cleanup hitter.  Horrible strikeout-to-walk ratio (45 Ks, 14 BBs) but the ball flies off his bat when he gets ahold of it.  Solid fielder for a college third baseman.

-- Shortstop: Blake Schmit (.307-1-26).  5th hitter.  Low numbers in homers, walks, and Ks, so kind of an anti-Rob Deer.  Leads the team in doubles with 16.  Excellent fielder and a bit of a speedster on the basepaths (16 steals.)

-- Left field: Tim Lewis (.292-0-13).  6th hitter.  Juco transfer who hit his way into the lineup midseason.  Solid hitter who isn't outstanding at anything in particular but gets the job done.

-- Center field: Charlie White (.276-2-28).  Leadoff hitter.  Speedster with 24 stolen bases in 28 attempts and has been plunked by 18 pitches, tied for second with Schmit.  (Maryland has a particular talent for that, having been HBP no fewer than 122 times - more than twice per game.)  Very difficult to strike out.

-- Right field: Anthony Papio (.267-2-26).  8th hitter.  Outplayed early-season competition to lock down right field job.  Decent average, but a strikeout machine with nearly 50.  Not much power.

-- Catcher: Kevin Martir (.276-4-25).  9th hitter.  Swings a lot, but not an easy strikeout, and is second on the team in home runs.

-- Designated hitter: Nick Cieri (.250-0-17).  7th hitter.  Numbers aren't great, but, only true freshman in regular starting lineup.  Left-hander who sometimes gives way to senior Kyle Convissar (.250-1-15).

-- Pitching staff:

Saturday: RHP Jake Stinnett (7-6, 2.65, 130 Ks).  Drafted last year as a junior in the 29th round (Pirates) but opted to return to school for a senior year.  Big pitcher described as "crafty but a righty" by Big League Futures.  Throws a 90-ish fastball, change, and a slider.  Opposing batters are hitting .192.  Only Maryland starter UVA has seen this year; Stinnett struck out 10 in 8 innings but gave up 10 hits and Hoos scored four runs.  Has four complete games this year.

Sunday: RHP Mike Shawaryn (11-3, 2.81, 70 Ks).  Freshman drafted out of high school in the 32nd round (Royals) but chose college.  Similar-sized pitcher to Stinnett, but a harder thrower with somewhat less control.  Generally pitches only into the 6th inning.

Monday: LHP Jake Drossner (4-1, 2.45, 55 Ks).  Sophomore was a 23rd-round pick by the Cubs out of high school.  Rocky freshman year but settled down this season; still walks too many hitters.  Has nearly as many walks as Stinnett in half the innings.  Tends to only go about five innings per start.

-- Bullpen: Closer Kevin Mooney (1-2, 4.05, 45 Ks) has 12 saves, but they've been adventurous.  He nearly blew the save against UVA, coming in to protect a 7-4 lead and giving up two runs.  Mooney gets a ton of strikeouts, however.  RHP Bobby Ruse (7-2, 2.86, 32 Ks) is the top long-relief option, and lefty Zach Morris (2-1, 2.77, 19 Ks) can also pitch in long relief and is an outside possibility to take the start on Monday.  Morris's K/BB ratio is underwater, though, and he allows a .257 BA.  By contrast, southpaw Ben Brewster (0-0, 2.74, 28 Ks) allows a miniscule .132 BA.  Other options such as Taylor Stiles (4-2, 4.15, 30 Ks) and Jared Price (1-2, 6.91, 31 Ks) exist, but after that top four the hittability goes way up.

-- Synopsis: Gone for now are the days when you could kick back on a nice Saturday and watch the Hoos score their customary 20 runs on Maryland.  They have a real live pitching staff now, and a better lineup than Arkansas had.  That's not saying a lot, really, but while Maryland lacks a truly fearsome bat, they also lack any large weak points, and can pinch-hit some very experienced players if they want.

UVA is the better team on paper, there's no doubt.  Maryland's lineup is respectable; UVA's is better even with numbers that've caused hand-wringing for underperformance.  Maryland has good pitching and they held a tough South Carolina lineup in check; UVA's is better yet.  And a similar situation exists in the bullpen.  It's important to remember, too, that in the loss, UVA threw its third-best pitcher while Maryland had their ace.  Jake Stinnett is a good pitcher worthy of the ace label, but.... man, Nathan Kirby.

I wouldn't be surprised to see this series go three games.  Maryland is the kind of team that doesn't know they were supposed to stink, and they've been hot lately; since May began they're 14-2, with one of those two losses coming in a meaningless ACC tourney game when they had wrapped up the pool already.  But - BOC spoke very highly of his team's performance and demeanor from last weekend, and UVA is 32-3 at home.  You take a reasonably confident and loose team with as much talent as UVA has, put them at a home stadium where they almost never lose, and playing a team that doesn't quiiite measure up on paper, and that's a team that ought to at least be able to take two of three.

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FYI - this is the last post til Monday.  I'm getting on a plane tomorrow.  Next week, I'll start the nomination series for the 6th annual FOV Cavalier of the Year, a series which I always enjoy.  And with any luck we can intersperse more baseball previews and wutnot.

weekend review

Ah, Selection Sunday.  It's always nice to make an appearance on the show.  The lacrosse one is double fun because I get to find out if I'm any good at making predictions.  This year, I think I did damn well.  Got all 18 teams, 7 of the 8 seeds, the top four exactly right in order as well as #6 and #8, and the only real monkey wrench in the works was Denver's selection as a seeded team instead of the highest non-seed - that threw off some of the other non-seeded picks as well.

All that would be true if Harvard had actually beaten Penn.  The real bracket is eerily similar to the Harvard-beats-Penn prediction I made; too bad Harvard lost and was still selected as an at-large, defying the Hofstra call.  So that ends the streak I was on of perfect at-large selections.  What it means is that a tweak that I made to my ranking system this season, worked really well for the top end of the list but did a poor job picking the last at-large; the old system would've never put Loyola or Penn anywhere near the top four seeds, but would've chosen Harvard without a second glance.  Just another thing to keep in mind for next year.

As for UVA's draw (Hopkins), am I allowed to complain, at the same time, that we should be playing a worse team with a better resume?  No?  Contradictory?  OK then.  Hop is a team that (and I thought rightly so) was widely considered in but at the very low end of the bubble.  They're light on big-time wins, with only Maryland and I guess Albany on their resume as notable victories.  But they're obviously going to be a very tough out.  And if we get past the Jays, Duke is obviously no picnic at all.  Still, a home game is not something you can expect every year when you lose five games.

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Speaking of draws, there's also the ACC/B1G Challenge draw to speak of, and like about 98% of UVA fans, I ain't happy.  It's not that I have an aversion to ever playing Maryland again, though I think it's totally understandable if you do.  It's that the ACC champs deserved a better draw than what's likely to be about the 10th-best Big Ten team.  Under no other circumstances would that have ever happened, but you just know the lazy bastards in charge of this stuff penciled in this game before the ink was even dry on Maryland's "we're going Midwest" press release.  So their reward for doing so is a home game against the ACC champs.  And, go ahead and write this one down and hold me to it next year: Maryland will make a return trip to Charlottesville in 2015 for the Challenge.

Some called the game "RPI-destroying" which isn't quite accurate because even if Maryland settles into the Big Ten's second division, they'll still be around .500 on the whole and they'll have the Big Ten as their OOWP.  It's more that we lose the chance to have the RPI bonus that a Wisconsin or a Michigan would've provided.  ESPN and the ACC decided to screw the Hoos in favor of a cheap marketing stunt, and relegated us to a game of regional instead of national interest.  I hope we blast them by 45 and the Louisville-Ohio State game is a 39-32 mockery of basketball.

**********************************************

There's a football depth chart, and it's almost entirely devoid of surprises.  The big news is at quarterback, where we got confirmation of what we'd long suspected: Greyson Lambert is the official starter.  There should be a benefit here, of going through the summer and the fall being able to prepare as the top dog instead of worrying about a competition.  Otherwise I think the only really newsworthy item is the appearance of Miles Gooch above both Darius Jennings and Dominique Terrell at one of the WR positions.  I don't think it signals the end of their useful careers at UVA, though; there's now a ton of size all over the place at WR but Jennings and Terrell are still faster than most of those guys and therefore have that to set them apart.

season preview: Maryland

Media prediction: 7th of 15

Last season:

Record: 25-13 (8-10); ACC 7th seed
Postseason: NIT 2 seed; lost in semifinals
KenPom: 48th of 347

Returning scoring: 63.5%
Returning rebounding: 59.5%
Returning assists: 63.5%

2012-2013 all-ACC:

1st team: none
2nd team: none
3rd team: none
HM: C Alex Len
Defensive: none
Rookie: C Alex Len

(Italics indicate departed player.)

Starting lineup:

PG: Roddy Peters (Fr.)
SG: Dez Wells (Jr.)
SF: Jake Layman (So.)
PF: Evan Smotrycz (rJr.)
C: Shaquille Cleare (So.)

Bench:

G Nick Faust (Jr.)
F Charles Mitchell (So.)
F Jonathan Graham (Jr.)
G Varun Ram (Jr.)

Coach: Mark Turgeon (3rd season)

ACC schedule:

Twice: Florida State, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Once: Boston College, Clemson, Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, NC State, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Wake Forest

Last season, Maryland was a bottom-of-the-bubble team that lacked anything close to resembling a signature win outside the conference; the best they could show the committee was an ACC tourney win over Duke (as well as home wins over the same and NC State.)  Wasn't nearly enough.  This year looks much the same, except, throw in some bad losses too.

Personnel losses have hit Maryland heavier than average.  Alex Len is off to the NBA, glue forward James Padgett and sharpshooter Logan Aronhalt have graduated, point guard Pe'Shon Howard transferred to USC, and sophomore PG Seth Allen is out for a couple more weeks with a broken foot that's caused him to miss the first half of the season.

Maryland has had to try and make a go of it with freshman point guard Roddy Peters, since Nick Faust long ago proved himself not a point guard and Dez Wells isn't well-equipped to play the one either.  It's been up and down; Peters has both an assist rate and a turnover rate in the mid-30s, high numbers both.  The Terps also give a few minutes here and there to juco transfer Varun Ram, minutes which are more or less wildly unproductive.

It hasn't helped that Faust has been missing the target with his shots far too much, which has banished him to the bench.  Wells is a quality scorer, but until Allen gets back, for now he's the only consistent threat in the backcourt.  Where Maryland is dangerous is in their perimeter-oriented forwards.  Jake Layman and Michigan transfer Evan Smotrycz both stand 6'8" but are outside sharpshooters and bring a scoring mentality to the court.  Smotrycz's game at Michigan saw him drifting outside far too often, but he's been a more well-rounded player at Maryland with more rebounding chops.

Maryland also gets good contributions from Charles Mitchell and center Shaquille Cleare.  Cleare is undersized for a center but is a passable shot blocker; his size (only 6'9") gets him beat on the boards fairly often, though.  Mitchell isn't a primary scoring option but chips in often enough to open up the floor for the others.  Cleare helps make Maryland a decent shot-blocking team; Layman and Wells get good numbers there as well since they're almost always taller than their assignment.  Freshman forward Jonathan Graham only sees a few minutes a game, but he too is a blocker of shots; almost one per game despite averaging less than ten minutes.

Barring a miracle run in the ACC, the Terps have probably already blown their shot at a tourney bid.  The NIT looks like a very likely destination.  If the maxim is true about the ACC being a guards' league, they'll probably struggle some in conference play, too.  But they've got plenty of frontcourt scoring, and some of those guys can fill it from anywhere, making them a very difficult matchup at times.  Their 8-10 ACC record from last year is a solid starting point which they should be able to surpass by a game or two, and take a run at an NIT championship after getting to MSG last year.

a million miles away

I can see all the signs.  I see the box score, where respectable offensive numbers show up in places where there used to be a toxic waste dump.  I watched the game and for once it was the opponent I saw making crucial mistakes and handing points on silver platters to the other team.  If one game can be called a trend, there's a decidedly upwards one.

I'm still not convinced.  It's probably too late to rescue the season, now that the team needs four wins in the next six to call the season a success.  The progress isn't fast enough.  On the one hand, they did a lot of things right on Saturday; on the other, they did a few basic things so badly that they're still having to compensate in ways that can't bring sustainable success.

The O-line's inability to push a pile into the end zone was the most galling, and the reason that UVA lost despite a +3 turnover margin.  Given not one, but two red zone chances after muffed punts, the Hoos managed two field goals.  (This is why red-zone scoring percentage is a crap statistic.  Announcers call that 100%.  I call it 42%.)  The offensive line simply was not good, and the result was a whole bunch of field goals when touchdowns were demanded.

This is why it's awfully hard to blame Steve Fairchild for the woes of the offense right now.  If anything, maybe Scott Wachenheim.  The offensive line is a lousy unit right now.  It just is.  It can't be anything else given their total failure to be able to line up and gain just a few yards when that's all that's needed.  Fairchild managed to scheme around that and actually pile up yards on the ground.  242 rushing yards - that's all scheme.  When asked to execute an assignment, the line is doing fine.  When asked to win a battle, it ain't happening.

The level of trust in the quarterback isn't there either.  UVA ran twenty plays inside the Maryland twenty, only six of which were called passes.  Six passes, fourteen runs.  This doesn't count the end-of-game sequence in which the playcalling was apparently designed to ensure maximum safety.  I can't totally fault that - people would've been all over London and Fairchild if Watford had thrown a pick - but don't you think if we had a quarterback we trusted, they'd've put the game in his hands?  They purposely didn't, nor did they, except for one (failed) attempt, let him try and score the touchdown with his arm.  The only time he did score with his arm was a totally improvised busted play.

Against an O-line that can't move anyone and a quarterback the OC doesn't trust, how does the team win four of six?  It probably doesn't.  A two-game winning streak is the only thing that can change my mind, and even then maybe not because Clemson waits in three weeks.

I don't have a lot of other reactions in brief (other than to say that, yes, kicking the extra point to cut Maryland's lead to 14-13 in the first half was the right call.  In the first half you always take the point, period.  Too much can happen and it's the easiest thing in the world to come up with scenarios where you might really, really regret not having that point.)  So let's go straight to the predictions:

-- Watford throws neither a pick nor a touchdown.  Aw, c'mon.  If it hadn't been for his very excellent improvision with McGee I'd have nailed this one.  Oh well.  Actually Watford played maybe his best game so far.  He slightly improved the distance on his passes and didn't throw an interception.  He needs some help from his receivers, who consistently don't get open, but he's starting, just ever so slightly, to come into his own.
-- Neither run game musters more than three yards per attempt.  Actually both run games looked solid.

-- Keeon Johnson leads UVA wide receivers in receptions.  I thought there was no way this was going to pan out, but - boom.  Johnson had two, and nobody but Dom Terrell (two also) had more than one. 

-- Stefon Diggs has had two catches each of the past two games; he has more here.  Diggs had six.  This was an easy call.

Two-for-four makes me 13-for-30, plus I nailed both the game and spread prediction, making me 3-3 in both.

P.S. I think we're going to find out this week that, once again, We Can't Have Nice Things.  In this case, nice defensive tackles.

game preview: Maryland

Date/Time: Saturday, October 13; 3:30

TV: ESPNUVA

Record against the Terps: 32-43-2

Last meeting: Md. 27, UVA 20; 10/13/12, Charlottesville

Last weekend: BSU 48, UVA 27; FSU 63, Md 0

Line: Maryland by 7

Injury report:

Virginia:

OUT - OL George Adeosun, PK Ian Frye, CB Demetrious Nicholson, TE Mario Nixon, OT Sadiq Olanrewaju, S Wil Wahee

DOUBTFUL - None

QUESTIONABLE - None

PROBABLE - TE Zach Swanson

Maryland:

OUT - DB Milan Collins, OL JaJuan Dulaney, CB Dexter McDougle, DL Mike Minter, DL Ty Tucker, WR Tyrek Cheeseboro, RB Tyler Cierski, K Adam Greene, DB Jeremiah Johnson, OL Nick Klemm, LB Matt Robinson

DOUBTFUL - QB C.J. Brown

QUESTIONABLE - None

PROBABLE - WR Daniel Adams, OL Silvio Altamirano, LB Cole Farrand, WR Nigel King, TE Dave Stinebaugh, DL Zeke Riser

I'm a little torn, but strongly leaning toward the idea that we should close down relations forever with Maryland once their time in the ACC is done.  Depends on the sport, really; lacrosse, definitely.  Basketball, probably, and replace them with Georgetown.  Football, I suppose, is a little less clear, but then, the schedule's tied up for a good long time anyway.  So this'll be our last shot for the foreseeable future at what was a very fun rivalry when Ralph Friedgen would flap his fat gums and we would beat his teams in response.

-- UVA run offense vs. Md. run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 88 carries, 398 yards, 4.5 ypc, 5 TDs
Daniel Hamm: 23 carries, 141 yards, 6.1 ypc, 2 TDs

UVA offense:
178.20 yards/game, 4.09 yards/attempt
80th of 125 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

Md. defense:
115.40 yards/game, 3.21 yards/attempt
25th of 125 (national), 3rd of 14 (ACC)

It seems like a safe but tentative bet so far that in the season-long who's-after-Parks watch, Khalek Shepherd is slowly but surely emerging as the primary backup.  Neither he nor Taquan Mizzell show up on the injury report this week, so we finally have the health we need to see the decision through.

The other name not on the injury report: Conner Davis.  Mike London has hinted this means another change in the order of battle for the offensive line; despite what the depth chart says, it appears Davis will take Luke Bowanko's left guard spot and move Bowanko back to center.  Bowanko is still a better guard than center, but I guess the real idea is that Davis is a better guard than Ross Burbank or Jackson Matteo are centers.  Last week's lineup shuffle looked good against a bad run defense; Maryland presents a tougher challenge.

Mitigating that will be Maryland's loss of disruptive OLB Matt Robinson.  Robinson is one of the defense's leading players and a member of one of the best linebacking corps in the league.  Inside backers Cole Farrand and L.A. Goree ought to be able to cover up for him to an extent, but Maryland loses something on the edge without Robinson.  Marcus Whitfield, on the other side of the Terps' 3-4, is more of a pass rusher.  Of course, last time I said there might be a weakness on the edge, attack the edge, Steve Fairchild kept attacking the middle.  So we'll see.

The 3-4 is just another challenge for our O-line, too, which hasn't been allowed to see many conventional defenses this year.  Maryland's line has been solid, and nose tackle Darius Kilgo is a load, so the O-line is simply going to be tested all day, and the threat will be more versatile than just watching Aaron Donald tear into the backfield all day.

It may be that Davis's return is another small boost to the line.  Changing from Wallace and Whitmire to Whitmire and Smith certainly was one, and you have to like getting a starter back.  But one good day against Ball State doesn't change my mind about the offense.  Even without Matt Robinson, Maryland is well-equipped to slow down and even stop the UVA run game.  Then you add in the fact that the read-option is designed against a 4-3 defense, and I definitely don't see strong results in this area of the game.

-- UVA pass offense vs. Md. pass defense

Quarterback:
David Watford: 101/171, 59.1%; 813 yards, 3 TDs, 7 INTs; 4.75 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Jake McGee: 19 rec., 119 yards, 1 TD
Darius Jennings: 14 rec., 107 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
171.4 yards/game, 4.6 yards/attempt
125th of 125 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

Md. defense:
218.4 yards/game, 6.5 yards/attempt
43rd of 125 (national), 8th of 14 (ACC)

Another injury has sapped quite a bit of the effectiveness out of the Maryland pass defense: the loss of Dexter McDougle for the season.  The main consequence of that was the loss of most of their big-play capability; McDougle had three picks in as many games.  Isaac Goins is a solid cornerback, but McDougle's replacement, freshman William Likely, is 5'7", and, you know, a freshman.

The Maryland pass rush can be nasty.  The aforementioned Marcus Whitfield has 5.5 sacks, and his backup, Yannik Cudjoe-Virgil, has three.  Maryland's nose tackle position, between Darius Kilgo and Andre Monroe, has combined for 5.5 sacks, and the team total is 18, which ties them for 5th in the country.

So the O-line is in for another test.  Given the pass rush the Terps can generate from the middle of the line, having Bowanko at center is a little bit of a relief.  The playing-time intention at wide receiver, though, is still a mystery, even with the "ors" taken off the depth chart.  I guess there's just a skepticism factor that the starters are suddenly Kyle Dockins, Keeon Johnson, and Miles Gooch.  Johnson I believe given the role he played against Ball State, and that lineup of guys could provide an advantage given the lack of size Maryland has at corner.  Finding it hard to believe they're fully relegating guys like Tim Smith and Darius Jennings to the bench, though.

I do think our receivers provide an advantage over the Maryland defensive backfield, where the Terps are middling-decent but did present no threat whatsoever to the FSU passing game.  (By contrast, FSU's run game was successful but not spectacularly so.)  However, Watford's still learning, and slowly.  I'm gonna have to see something before I give the whole unit the benefit of the doubt.  At some point Watford's gonna have a great game and prove me wrong, but I don't plan on saying "this weekend is it" all year til I get it right.

-- Md. run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Brandon Ross: 68 carries, 331 yards, 4.8 ypc, 2 TDs
Albert Reid: 29 carries, 120 yards, 4.1 ypc, 1 TD

Md. offense:
188.0 yards/game, 4.65 yards/attempt
53rd of 125 (national), 6th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
149.2 yards/game, 3.87 yards/attempt
50th of 125 (national), 6th of 14 (ACC)

Like the offense in reverse, I'm gonna have to see more than one bad game out of the defense (Oregon doesn't count) before I decide it sucks.  I don't think that'll be in this phase of the game, at least.  The likely loss of C.J. Brown makes the Maryland run attack fairly one-dimensional.  Decent opponents have shut down Brandon Ross's backup, Albert Reid, which by subtraction leaves Ross as the only real rushing threat.  (Other backup Jacquille Veii, with almost as many carries as Reid, has been a garbage-timer so far.)

Ross can move the ball, but is no threat to break one open, and is a little bit stat-padded by a big game against ODU.  Florida International shut him down and FSU made him disappear entirely; he's just not a game-breaker, and Maryland's patchily young offensive line is still learning its way around consistent run-blocking.

So this is a very important phase of the game for UVA.  The Maryland pass offense can be dangerous, and UVA simply must force them to have to rely solely on it to move the ball.  If the run game can be stifled with just the regular up-front personnel, maybe even with six in the box, it'll make this game so much easier.  Long day otherwise.

-- Md. pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
C.J. Brown: 72/113, 63.7%; 1,125 yards, 7 TDs, 1 INT; 9.96 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Deon Long: 24 rec., 348 yards, 1 TD
Stefon Diggs: 20 rec., 424 yards, 3 TDs

Md. offense:
257.6 yards/game, 9.3 yards/attempt
10th of 125 (national), 4th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
191.4 yards/game, 5.6 yards/attempt
10th of 125 (national), 2nd of 14 (ACC)

It's great to have such nice numbers on our side, even with such nice ones on the Maryland side too, but here's where the injury bug takes a chunk out of our defense, with Demetrious Nicholson out for the game.  This is not the time for that, as UVA goes up against a dynamic duo at receiver for the third time in a row, and probably the best of the three in Stefon Diggs and Deon Long.

Diggs is also dealing with a malady of his own, which could slow him down and even up the matchup; Randy Edsall has been referring to him as not 100% and he hasn't been taking return duties.  He's been limited the past two weeks to two catches each.  Long has stepped forward somewhat.  Still, you have to game plan for him.  You're not going to worry about Levern Jacobs or Malcolm Culmer.  You might watch Nigel King, who stands 6'3" and for that reason alone can be a tough cover, but Diggs and Long are what make the Maryland offense move.

The above assumes C.J. Brown can play, but he's listed as doubtful - so he probably won't.  We're in much better shape if he doesn't.  Backup Caleb Rowe is not incapable but not close to the player Brown is, either.  The combination of losing Brown and having Diggs limited could be a major crippling factor for the Maryland offense, and without Nicholson we'll take all the help we can get.

-- Favorability ratings:

Run offense: 3
Pass offense: 3.5
Run defense: 7.5
Pass defense: 3 if Brown plays and Diggs is playable, and 6.5 otherwise

Average: 4.25 or 5.125

-- Outlook

You can see the effect on the game of Brown's injury.  Take him out of there and I can see UVA having the slimmest of advantages.  Put him in and the game swings Maryland's way.  Maryland's run game is much more dangerous with Brown (Rowe is not a runner) and Brown is easily the better passer too.   UVA must, must must must shut down the run game to the greatest extent possible, and do so nice and early, so that they'll be able to focus on stopping the pass.  If they can do that, that's their chance.  Moving the ball will be tough and opportunities to do so limited, so there'll be plenty of pressure on the defense to keep the game within striking distance.

-- Prediction summary

-- Watford throws neither a pick nor a touchdown.

-- Neither run game musters more than three yards per attempt.

-- Keeon Johnson leads UVA wide receivers in receptions.

-- Stefon Diggs has had two catches each of the past two games; he has more here.

Final score: Md. 17, UVA 13

-- Rest of the ACC

Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech - 12:00 - Tech will be remembering the embarrassing beatdown they received from the Panthers last year.

Duke vs. Navy - 12:30 - Duke bowl eligibility hopes probably demand this win.

Syracuse @ NC State - 3:30 - As do the bowl hopes of both these teams, slim as they are.

Boston College @ Clemson - 3:30 - Clemson's tuneup before the big game next week.

Georgia Tech @ Brigham Young - 7:00 - Should be a useful game in learning how we stand.

Byes: Miami, Florida State, Wake Forest, UNC

season preview: Maryland Terrapins

Schedule:

8/31: Florida International
9/7: Old Dominion
9/14: @ Connecticut
9/21: West Virginia
9/28: BYE
10/5: @ Florida State
10/12: Virginia
10/19: @ Wake Forest
10/26: Clemson
11/2: BYE
11/9: Syracuse
11/16: @ Virginia Tech
11/23: Boston College
11/30: @ NC State

Skip: Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Pittsburgh

2012 results:

William & Mary: W, 7-6
Temple: W, 36-27
Connecticut: L, 24-21
West Virginia: L, 31-21
Wake Forest: W, 19-14
Virginia: W, 27-20
NC State: L, 20-18
Boston College: L, 20-17
Georgia Tech: L, 33-13
Clemson: L, 45-10
Florida State: L, 41-14
North Carolina: L, 45-38

Record: 4-8 (2-6); 5th of 6, Atlantic Division

Projected starters:

QB: C.J. Brown (4Jr.)
RB: Brandon Ross (rSo.)
WR: Stefon Diggs (So.)
WR: Deon Long (rJr.)
WR: Nigel King (rSo.)
TE: Dave Stinebaugh (5Sr.)
LT: Mike Madaras (So.)
LG: De'Onte Arnett (5Sr.)
C: Sal Conaboy (rJr.)
RG: Andrew Zeller (rSo.)
RT: Nick Klemm (5Sr.)

DE: Quinton Jefferson (So.)
NT: Darius Kilgo (rJr.)
DE: Keith Bowers (Jr.)
OLB: Matt Robinson (rJr.)
ILB: Cole Farrand (Jr.)
ILB: L.A. Goree (rJr.)
OLB: Marcus Whitfield (5Sr.)
CB: Dexter McDougle (5Sr.)
CB: Jeremiah Johnson (rJr.)
S: Sean Davis (So.)
S: Anthony Nixon (So.)

K: Brad Craddock (So.)
P: Nathan Renfro (rSo.)

(Italics indicate new starter.)

Coach: Randy Edsall, 3rd season

Media prediction: 5th of 7, Atlantic Division

All-ACC:

2012 1st team: DT Joe Vellano
2012 2nd team: LB Demetrius Hartsfield
2012 HM: KR Stefon Diggs, DE A.J. Francis, LB Kenny Tate
2013 preseason: KR Stefon Diggs

(Italics indicate departed player.)

I seriously considered writing a season preview for Louisville in this slot, just out of spite.  But Maryland has been so bad in the past couple seasons that this might actually be a pleasure.  Randy Edsall's tenure has been rocky at best and disastrous in his first season, although things settled down some last year.  That's a pretty strong statement about how bad the first season went when you consider that Maryland had to use a linebacker at quarterback last year.  Edsall has more of "his" guys in place now than he has in the past, but it'll remain to be seen how that translates into wins.

-- Offense

Theoretically, stability returns at quarterback now that all these guys are healthy again.  Returning to the top of the depth chart is C.J. Brown, who did a decent job running the offense in 2011 once given the reins, except for some atrocious passing numbers.  Brown is a dangerous running threat, but his arm remains totally unproven.  If Brown falters, Perry Hills started the first seven games of 2012 while Brown recuperated from a torn ACL.  Hills eventually tore his own ACL, but his passing stats were not awful and he gives Maryland a decent insurance policy.

The optimism in College Park as it regards their offense, however, stems from the wide receivers.  Stefon Diggs is a legitimately elite talent who managed an 848-yard freshman season last year with six touchdowns despite the quarterback merry-go-round.  Diggs is Maryland's top weapon and an extremely difficult cover for any cornerback in the country.  This year, he'll be paired with juco transfer Deon Long.  Long has been all around the block with academic issues; first at West Virginia, then to New Mexico where Mike Locksley was.  After a year at juco in Iowa, where he set all sorts of receiving records, he followed Locksley to Maryland.  Despite his travels, Long is considered a tremendous talent, and there's potential for the Terps to have by far the best receiving duo in the ACC.  Maryland also likes 6'3" Nigel King, who will help them fill the gap left by the (possibly temporary) loss of Marcus Leak, who withdrew from school in May.

The running game may be another matter.  Depth at tailback took a major hit with the transfer of Justus Pickett to Tennessee and the yearlong suspension of Wes Brown.  They're left with last year's leading rusher, Brandon Ross, who needed only 390 yards to accomplish that feat.  He'll at least start out splitting carries with Albert Reid, who was used sparingly last year and averaged only 2.6 yards per carry.  Beyond that, the tailback depth chart is full of freshmen.

At offensive line, there are some building blocks and some question marks.  True sophomore Mike Madaras looks like a keeper at left tackle, after earning eight starts during his freshman year.  As well, Sal Conaboy established himself as a starting center in 2011, and since then the only thing that has kept him from that spot is health.  De'Onte Arnett is another one who would have been more of a fixture in the past if not for injuries.  If healthy this year, the left side of the line should be in decent shape.  The right side could still be up in the air.  Nick Klemm has started a little bit at left tackle, but appears to have shifted semi-permanently to the right side.  All in all, however, there's little depth, and this is not a line that either run-blocked well or kept their quarterbacks healthy in 2012.  Their 3.17 sacks allowed per game was worst in the ACC and 116th of 124 in the country last year.

The main thing this offense has going for it is its receivers; C.J. Brown's accuracy might go up just by virtue of throwing to some crazy wide open targets.  But the offensive line is still not a strength, and must improve over last year or the offense will be nothing more than frustratingly inconsistent.  And there's nothing in the running game save Brown's own feet that will scare any defenses, freeing them up to flood the secondary and take away the big gains in the passing game.

-- Defense

If there was any reason the Terps won four games in 2012, rather than zero, it was the defense, a respectable unit whose results belied their win-loss record.  The problem they'll have is that pretty much all their biggest playmakers have moved on.  There are some quality holdovers that will need to step into their shoes if Maryland's defense is to be successful again this year.

The foundation will be at inside linebacker in Maryland's 3-4 defense.  Cole Farrand is the top returning tackler with 78, and that number should go up quite a bit without Joe Vellano up front to clean up so many plays before they even started.  Fellow ILB L.A. Goree was an honorable mention pick for freshman all-American in 2011, but injury and upperclassmen limited his time in 2012; the starting job is now his and he should at least be solid.  The OLBs come from opposite sides of the field; Matt Robinson is a converted safety and strong in pass coverage, while Marcus Whitfield started his career at defensive end.  Robinson is a good player when healthy; Whitfield, however, had only nine tackles in 12 games (including two starts) and his backup at hand-down OLB is a transfer from D-II Seton Hill.  (Not Hall.  Hill.)  If Robinson remains injury-prone - he's missed huge chunks of the last two seasons with various ailments - his backup Alex Twine has a fair amount of starting experience, but the two OLB positions aren't interchangeable.

The cornerbacks are also a point of strength for the Terps; Dexter McDougle has 24 starts (every game for the past two years) and Jeremiah Johnson also started every game in 2012.  They're both good in run support, solid if unspectacular in coverage.  Sometimes prone to getting beaten over the top.  Their leadership will be important, because sophomore safeties Sean Davis and Anthony Nixon were thrown into the fire a little last year.  Nixon has the makings of a potential star after a pretty good freshman season.

It's up on the line where there's a lot of work to be done.  At nose tackle, Darius Kilgo has a lot of promise and some ability to get into the backfield.  His 11 starts last year make him the only returning starter from 2012; however, none of his backups have ever played a down of college football except for a few snaps for Alex Walker two years ago, against Towson.  The Terps could be vulnerable up the middle when they spell Kilgo.  DE Keith Bowers had 11 starts two years ago, but like Goree, injury and upperclassmen conspired to limit him last year.  At the other end, Quinton Jefferson will be pushed by Andre Monroe, who had five sacks in 2011 as a redshirt freshman but lost all of 2012 to injury.  The upshot here is that Maryland's defensive ends could be pretty productive, but there are big shoes to fill and at the moment, mostly only potential to do it with, along with a need to prove they can stay healthy.

That's kind of the story of Maryland's defense.  They're missing a lot of talent and production from their 2012 team, and they likely have the ability to replace most of it.  If they keep the injuries to a minimum.  This could be more of a gelling year for this unit if it stays healthy, with 2014 as their more likely peak year - by which time they'll be Indiana's problem instead.

-- Special teams

Nathan Renfro had an OK season as a freshman and should work his way into being a good punter as time goes on.  Maryland will definitely need better production from Brad Craddock as the placekicker; Craddock hit a 52-yarder last season but missed four of ten inside 40 yards.  Stefon Diggs took two kickoffs back for touchdowns last season and averaged nearly 30 yards on his returns, as well as 10 yards per punt return.

-- Outlook

Randy Edsall called it a full-blown "process" when Maryland was really looking for a guy to take them to the next level, and then made it a self-fulfilling prophecy.  This team isn't ready for the big-time yet.  But getting back to the postseason isn't a wild idea either.  The first three games will be telling; if they go 3-0 there, which they're capable of doing, scraping together three more wins won't be too surprising.  Giant question marks loom on offense, however, and the defense is more likely to take a step back than forward, if only because it was so surprisingly good last year.  A season in the range of 4-6 wins is the most likely outcome; 7 if they can get every chip to fall just right.

terp-a-derp

"We don't need you!"

"We don't need you!"

Acidic chants from catty student sections are one of the best parts of college basketball, as long as deceased grandmothers are left out of it.  Football may be where the money and the crowds are, but football crowds don't have anything on basketball crowds when it comes to getting up underneath opposing skins.  Creativity abounds.  Few things are more entertaining then the crowd participating in the smack talk, sometimes much better than the actual players could ever get away with.

One of those things is watching your team throw it back in their faces.  Justin Anderson, the target of the above chant that rained down from (understandably, if we're being honest) jilted-feeling Maryland fans, seemed to feed off it.  His jumper gave UVA its first points, and when he sank two free throws, ice-cold as you please, the thought started to form in the back of my head that whatever venom Maryland students would send his way in the near future would backfire.  Those free throws took the lead from Maryland.  They would never get it back.  Full-force backfire was in effect.  This kid is gonna play a great game at Cameron Indoor one day.

We've already hashed out Jordan Williams's decision to go to the NBA and its cause-and-effect chain that led Anderson to where he is today, but it's fascinating to watch the consequences play out in real life.  Anderson is a smart guy who is soaking up Tony Bennett's coaching like a sponge, with sensational results.  There hasn't been a guy in Virginia blue and orange who made athleticism look so easy since Adam Hall.  Even Sean Singletary played more like a miniature explosion than with Anderson's lightning smoothness.  And his defense on Alex Len - to whom he gives up seven inches - helped Maryland fans start to wonder why Len is supposed to be a lottery pick.  That was surely just as important as his 17 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 assists.

Of course, there's a great deal of obvious irony in watching the Maryland fanbase get upset over "traitorous" behavior.  Those crazzzzy ol' Dookies got in a nice one a couple weeks ago, informing the Maryland hoops team to "don't come back.... don't come back...."  So when the Terp student section expressed their opinion about how badly they needed or didn't need Justin Anderson's skills, I couldn't help but think there were fifteen schools that felt the same way about Maryland.  Students, should the opportunity present itself when Maryland pays a visit next month (and assuming we don't intend to follow the Terps to the Midwest where we don't belong), you know what to do.

Further points in brief:

-- Lately I've found myself wishing we had a point guard that shot threes.  And Jontel runs the fast break with about the same philosophy as all the doomed chicks in a Freddy Krueger movie.  Then I look at the boxscore and go "whoa, eight assists."  Obviously something is being done right.  I'm not quite sure what, other than that Evans is pretty good at the drive-and-dish in the halfcourt set.

-- On the other hand, there's an advantage, or at least a small silver lining, to having Evans's defender playing six feet off of him.  Namely, that it plays right into Tony's slow-down-the-game hand.  And it gives Jontel a wide field of vision to calmly observe as the other scorers run around the halfcourt to their hearts' content until one of them gets open.  Most point guards are better when they get the chance to observe the action and make a nice calm decision, and Bub's no different.   Even so, I wouldn't mind seeing Tony put in a system where, in the second half (when we're shooting in front of our own bench) he can say a word or two and cause Evans to shoot the open three.  That wouldn't have to work very often for it to work.

-- Enough cannot be said about what the Hoos did to Alex Len.  Before desperation mode arrived (and Len tipped in a couple putbacks) he had five points and five rebounds.  Also with five rebounds at that point: Jontel Evans.

-- The general meme about Maryland's press, when they realized they had to knock the Hoos out of their comfort zone, is that UVA couldn't handle it.  Because, you know, there were some turnovers and some nervous moments.  But UVA got about as many cheap points out of Maryland's press as Maryland did, and that's basically the definition of handling it.  How do you think Paul Jesperson was so wide open for some of his threes? 

-- Of Maryland's ten rotation players, Logan Aronhalt sees the fewest minutes.  Sunday he saw more time than James Padgett and Charles Mitchell combined.  Backup point guard Seth Allen (a pretty good player in the future but still prone to chucking nutty turnovers) played just one fewer minute than Len.  It was obvious Mark Turgeon decided to try and play small to counter the success UVA was having with their own backcourt, but there's one problem with that: our backcourt is much better than theirs.  That was another huge key to the win.  I told you our size is mainly useful for shutting down regular-sized backcourts, and Turgeon gave up his size advantage and let UVA have one instead.

The next game is VT on Tuesday.  We have a little rivalry run here: Maryland, VT, UNC.  And, not to look past VT or anything (let's face it, we're at the point now where certain games will be taken for granted because if we don't win them, then there's no point in talking about any goals at all) but the single most important game left on the calendar is Saturday's tilt at Carolina.

Reason: We have, as it stands, a 1-game lead over the Heels.  If things go as they should this week (we play VT, Carolina plays Duke) we'll have a 2-game lead going into Saturday.  A win means a three-game lead with six to play.  But really, it means a four-game lead, because with a win in Chapel Hill, UVA will have the tiebreaker over UNC.  We already have it on NC State; we don't play 'em again this year.

There's a pretty fair-sized gap between the fifth and sixth-place teams, talent-wise.  NC State is dangerous; Florida State and below, less so.  Getting that tiebreaker over both UNC and NC State would put UVA squarely in the driver's seat for a minimum third place finish, with eyes on second; they would have to falter amazingly to lose it.  Third would be really, really nice, because unless UNC or NC State falls below fifth - unlikely - you'd be guaranteed to play FSU-or-worse in the ACC tournament.  And I'll tell you what, man; the mainest goal this season is probably just to get past freakin' Friday in the ACC tournament.  Do that and everything else falls into place.  So: beat Carolina (and don't eff it up against VT) and things will be looking sunnier than they have in a long, long time.

****************************************************************

Here are the results of this week's season sim, with last week's also presented for comparison:

UVA made a nice strong move, leaping past NC State because the Pack lost once and squeaked past Clemson, which didn't do them any KenPom favors.  KenPom rewards you for beating the flying shit out of someone, and UVA moved from 42nd to 22nd overall in his rankings with that win over Clemson and then up to 19th by beating Maryland.  Which, by the way, was a tossup game, so winning that along with the large percentage boost from the move up the rankings landed UVA with a roughly 3-in-4 chance, as we sit now, of finishing third.  Compare that with a 1-in-2 chance of beating UNC this weekend and it might undermine my message from above a little bit, but in a good way: beating UNC would be very helpful, but is not absolutely essential, to finishing third.

The other story here is that both teams on either end of the standings (Miami and VT) have done some very nice work solidifying their respective positions.  In two weeks VT has gone from about a 55% chance of the bottom seed to better than 4-in-5.  God's in His heaven, and all is right with the world.

Also, someone asked over the Twitters what our RPI would be if we'd beaten ODU.  I guessed "only about five spots" and, as it turns out, undershot by six.  UVA is 75th at the moment, and I calculate that'd go up to 64th if ODU had been a win like it damn well should've been.  I still say the committee will say "senior point guard injured" and ignore it, as long as we can keep on taking care of business.

weekend review

Just small bullets today.  Deprived of bowl preparations, this time of year is so bereft of news and such that I might end up posting a full-blown preview of the Morgan State game on Wednesday.  (On second thought no.  Not that desperate.)  Anyway.

-- It's highly unlikely you missed the fact that the basketball side of the Big East finally snapped and voted to leave the conference.  Things would've been even more entertaining had they been able to vote to dissolve it entirely.  (Realignment is all fun and games when it's going on below you.)  I think the final word on dissolution was they needed two football-school votes, so it's a shame they didn't latch onto this idea before Rutgers left.  (Just to see if anyone could ever top the dick move of voting to dissolve the conference while secretly knowing you have an invite from somewhere else.)

At any rate, what's left is a Conference of Sanity, coming sometime in the future to hoops only, and a spread-out agglomeration of random former CUSA and MWC schools.  And Connecticut, but let's face it, a football program that isn't even old enough for a drivers' license is hard to have a lot of sympathy for.  Does that suck for their hoops program?  Yes, but then, Memphis seemed to do just fine as the one behemoth in CUSA.

As for the ACC, it probably means nothing in the short-term.  The main effect is that now, Notre Dame can't figure out what it's supposed to do if it wants to leave early. (Had the rumored dissolution occurred, it would've quadrupled the weird factor, since in that case ND and Louisville would've been free to jump right in next year.  In which case we would've had to figure out what to do with Maryland, since the B1G would've probably added Rutgers early as well and would've been likely to demand Maryland's freedom too.  But that's all moot now.  The Zombie Big East will carry on without much direction for a little while longer yet.

UConn and Cincinnati are no doubt feeling rather out in the cold right now, but they'll be around if the ACC needs them.  (Let's hope it doesn't.)  Pre-emptive expansion would be a bad idea.  If for some reason the Big Ten decides to add UConn, I'd be furious as a B1G fan but highly relieved as an ACC fan, and the scales, in case you're wondering, would tilt decidedly towards my ACC loyalties.  I don't want to see UVA in the Big Ten, that's why.

-- Rumorz on the LaxPower forum are harbingers of a tough time to be a UVA goalie hopeful.  Dan Marino has (another) broken thumb and Austin Geisler has transferred to High Point.  Geisler is no longer on the roster, so there's your corroboration.  Marino's thumb is newsworthy this time around because there isn't time for it to heal before the preseason, or even perhaps the season itself.  That turns a three-man derby for the starting gig into a one-man derby: Rhody Heller, as the last man standing, is now almost certain to start the season in net.  And he needs to spend the next few weeks lovingly encased in bubble wrap, because after that is nobody who's a solution.

-- It's been almost two years since we had to put up with a decommitment, so the time was ripe.  Losing Brad Henson to North Carolina, though, stings a bit.  More so than any recent decommitment I can think of, going back several years.  Henson was the most highly-sought-after member of the O-line class (obviously) and part of the succession plan at center.  Thinness at the O-line (partly due to Tim Cwalina's unfortunate heart condition) was causing the coaches to pursue a fourth offensive lineman for the class, but now they'll have to make it a priority.  Decommitments are not in and of themselves worth getting worked up over, but Henson's handling of the situation ("two-faced" would not be a complete stretch) left much to be desired.  Contrast that with Tim Harris, who, if he decommits (I don't think he will, but you never know) will at least have been up front about his intentions.

-- Will Stewart at ITA has an excellent article that does a nice job of reading between the lines of the WaPo's behemoth article on Maryland's move to the Big Ten.  Top quote:

"30 years as a career academic administrator at the collegiate level, and Loh admits to knowing almost nothing about athletic conferences, other than 'there are games.' And he’s the driving force behind moving Maryland to the Big Ten."

Admittedly some of the article plays on the emotional pull of historical matchups and tradition and yadda yadda, none of which anyone that makes any decisions gives a shit about.  But here is a guy who used to know nothing about athletic conferences other than "there are games," and now knows nothing about athletic conferences other than "there are games, and some conferences have more money than others."  And he decided exactly what you'd expect someone would decide given no knowledge but that which relates to money, and only that knowledge which Jim Delany deigned to let him in on.  A little knowledge is a dangerous thing.

season preview: Maryland

Maryland Terrapins

Media prediction: 6th of 12

Last season:

Record: 17-15 (6-10); ACC 8 seed
Postseason: none
KenPom: 134th of 345

Returning scoring: 36.7%
Returning rebounding: 46.2%
Returning assists: 44.8%

2011-2012 all-ACC:

1st team: none
2nd team: G Terrell Stoglin
3rd team: none
HM: none
Defensive: none
Rookie: G Nick Faust

(Italics indicate departed player.)

Starting lineup:

PG: Pe'Shon Howard (Jr.)
SG: Nick Faust (So.)
SF: Dez Wells (So.)
PF: James Padgett (Sr.)
C: Alex Len (So.)

Bench:

G Seth Allen (Fr.)
F Charles Mitchell (Fr.)
F Jake Layman (Fr.)
C Shaquille Cleare (Fr.)
G Logan Aronhalt (Sr.)

Coach: Mark Turgeon (2nd season)

ACC schedule:

Twice: Boston College, Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Once: Clemson, Georgia Tech, Miami, NC State

Maryland is sort of the mystery meat of this year's season so far.  At 9-1, they're improved over last year, and haven't lost to anyone they shouldn't.  Then again, they haven't played anyone they should lose to.  Except for Kentucky to start the season, a game they only lost by three points; then again, nobody's real sure what to expect out of Kentucky, either.

Whatever the quality of this year's Terps team, they're finding their way with a whole new offensive model from last year.  Last year's model involved ballhoggin' Terrell Stoglin, and nobody else.  This year the shots are a little bit better distributed.  Maryland uses a 10-man rotation that sort of involves their holdovers from last year in the starting lineup and most of their freshman (plus one grad-student transfer) off the bench.  Not having Stoglin around has allowed the talents of big center Alex Len to start showing through.  Len is a full 7'1" and one of the best big men in the league, a guy who can score easily and has already blocked a whopping 26 shots.

Maryland's size isn't just about Len, though.  Maryland in fact is one of the biggest teams in the country; KenPom's "effective height" rating places them 3rd in the nation.  Nick Faust and Dez Wells are big, long wingmen that can shoot (mostly; Faust isn't real effective from three) and rebound some, and Maryland gets a good, steady veteran presence from senior power forward James Padgett, who's shooting .651 to start the season.  Rounding out the starting lineup is point guard Pe'Shon Howard, returning from a knee injury that cost him a huge chunk of last year.  Howard's shooting has been garbage so far this year, but he more than makes up for it by not doing it much.  It's rare to find someone with an O-rating over 100 with as poor a FG% as Howard has, but he achieves that with sparkling free-throw shooting and being an outstanding facilitator; an assist rate of 36.7% is 38th in the country and leads to an excellent A/T ratio of 3.2/1.

The bench squad is four frosh and an old guy.  The old guy is Albany transfer Logan Aronholt, your prototypical off-the-bench 3-shooting white guy.  An early season percentage of .581 in that regard will eventually come out of the stratosphere, but right now he and fellow reserve guard Seth Allen, who runs the point in Howard's absence, are the only long-range threats on the roster.  Everyone else brought off the bench is a big.  Jake Layman is tall and skinny as hell, listed at 6'8", 205.  Charles Mitchell is a true power forward and an outstanding rebounder.  Shaquille Cleare backs up Len at center; Cleare's minutes are limited a bit by fouls and the fact that he backs up Alex Len, but he's a load to handle on the offensive end.  When his defense catches up he'll provide a lot of insurance against Len's eventual professional departure.

What Maryland will do in the ACC season might be a little unpredictable, and is not well-informed by recent games against the likes of UMES and Monmouth.  But basketball is a big mans' game, and Maryland is a big, big team.  That should certainly help.  One thing it's helped with already: two-point defense, at which Maryland is so far the best team in the coutnry, allowing two-point shooting of 35.4%.  Without fouling much, too.  Not surprising, since the dreckish teams that Maryland has played so far have a tendency to struggle in recruiting talented bigs.  They could stand to take care of the ball better, and when you turn the ball over too much against this schedule, the ACC will probably eat you up.  But that size should be a great equalizer, and this team will be a tough out.  Their awful OOC schedule has given them no chances to make a tournament statement, so they'll really have to blow away the conference to get a dance invite; they could end up like VT did a few years ago, with a 10-6 record in the conference (or whatever they'll do in 18 games) and a ticket to the NIT.

game preview: Maryland

Date/Time: Saturday, October 13; 3:00

TV: RSN, ESPN3

Record against the Terps: 32-42-2

Last meeting: UVA 31, Md. 13; 11/5/11, College Park

Last weekend: Duke 42, UVA 17; Md. 19, WF 14

Line: UVA by 1

Opposing blog: Testudo Times

Injury report:

Virginia -

OUT FOR SEASON
S Pablo Alvarez, DT Marco Jones, WR Mario Nixon

OUT
DE Billy Schautz, DT Buddy Ruff

DOUBTFUL
None

QUESTIONABLE
WR Darius Jennings, WR Tim Smith

PROBABLE
S Darius Lee, DT Justin Renfrow, QB Phillip Sims

Maryland -

OUT FOR SEASON
QB C.J. Brown, K Nick Ferrara, DL Andre Monroe

OUT
WR Kerry Boykins, RB Wes Brown, LB L.A. Goree, S Matt Robinson

DOUBTFUL
None

QUESTIONABLE
None

PROBABLE
G De'Onte Arnett, OT Justin Gilbert, CB Jeremiah Johnson, NT Darius Kilgo, OT Nick Klemm, RB Justus Pickett, LB Kenny Tate, DE Joe Vellano, OT Andrew Zeller

Last week's game had me pining for basketball season, or maybe baseball season already, and I was definitely getting all emo up in here thinking "what's the use of any more previews?  I could at least pump up my prediction record by always saying we'll lose, I suppose that's something."  Then I remembered who we play this week.  And the day I can't get excited about a chance to beat those goons from the trailer parkin' little brother we have on the other side of the Potomac is the day I shut this gig down.

College Park nightlife, or clever artistic statement on the financial condition of Maryland's well-run athletic department?  You decide!

-- UVA run offense vs. Md. run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 76 carries, 346 yards, 4.6 avg., 3 TDs
Perry Jones: 76 carries, 295 yards, 3.9 avg., 2 TDs

UVA offense:
134.83 yards/game, 4.05 yards/attempt
75th of 124 (national), 6th of 12 (ACC)

Md. defense:
81.0 yards/game, 2.33 yards/attempt
3rd of 124 (national), 1st of 12 (ACC)

This is genuinely concerning (and a great way to kick off the preview.  Not.)  I expected Maryland to be good against the run this year, but not, like, third in the nation good.  The numbers are no mirage; the Terps held the normally outstanding West Virginia offense to 25 yards on 25 carries.  40-some yards if you cut out sacks, but yeah.  Only UConn has put together anything resembling a rushing attack against the Terps, which is weird because UConn's running game otherwise sucks.  But the fact is, this ain't gonna be easy.

You have to start by accounting for Joe Vellano, a legit first-team all-ACC talent.  Vellano looks like he's about one gunshot away from earning made man status, and plays like it too, with seven non-sack TFLs.  For a lineman to be second on his team in tackles is impressive.  Maryland runs a 3-4 these days, which puts Vellano on the outside as a DE, and the defense is working like it's supposed to; Vellano has a bunch of tackles, other DE A.J. Francis is making some plays, and Maryland also has a playmaking linebacker in the form of Demetrius Hartsfield.  Hartsfield has 43 tackles (over eight per game), three sacks, and two recovered fumbles, and an INT for good measure, just what you'd salivate over if you were a 3-4 DC.  Hartsfield patrols the middle next to Cole Farrand, with Darin Drakeford and Kenny Tate on the outside, and the only one who hasn't been productive this season is Tate and it's not like it's his fault; WVU was his first game back from injury.

So all that noise about the progress the offensive line is making is about to be severely tested.  It's not at all out of the question that it's all been thanks to the opponent more than any real improvement.  Vellano demands a double team, and it's best for us if he lines up opposite Morgan Moses, whose ability in run-blocking has never been questioned.  If Darius Jennings and Tim Smith are both out (God forbid) it'll probably increase the number of times we go heavy on the tight ends, which may itself be necessary to get any kind of traction.

I don't see any running room for Perry Jones this week.  If anyone's going to gain yardage, it'll have to be someone who can fall forward after contact.  Running opposite of Vellano is paramount, and no, I don't think any tricky stuff like counter plays will work either, the dude's a veteran, and not slow either.  The best plan is to keep Vellano futilely pursuing from the back side, and hope we can keep Maryland's linebackers off the line of scrimmage long enough to get our backs past it.

-- UVA pass offense vs. Md. pass defense

Quarterback:
Phillip Sims: 49/88, 55.7%; 608 yards, 5 TDs, 2 INTs; 6.91 yds/attempt

Top receivers:
Darius Jennings: 24 rec., 339 yards, 1 TD
Perry Jones: 22 rec., 221 yards, 0 TDs

UVA offense:
294.5 yards/game, 7.4 yards/attempt
63rd of 124 (national), 8th of 12 (ACC)

Md. defense:
176.2 yards/game, 6.3 yards/attempt
36th of 124 (national), 4th of 12 (ACC)

I got an idea, let's just not have two of our best receivers available for this game.  Man, I hope Jennings and Smith can go.  Smith's status is an upgrade from last week when he was doubtful, so that's a good sign; I still don't like seeing those two listed on the injury report, ever.

It's much harder to make out what to think of Maryland's pass defense than their run defense.  For the most part, they haven't played good quarterbacks, except Geno Smith, who did Geno Smith things.  Tanner Price at Wake has taken a huge step backwards because teams are daring him to throw at anyone but Michael Campanaro.  Like UVA, Maryland hasn't gotten anything in the turnover department, except for INTs from people not in their secondary.

Cornerbacks Dexter McDougle and Jeremiah Johnson are solid enough, but neither has come up with an INT yet this season.  If we could be sure of having our best receivers, I'd like their chances of getting open, but the Terp cornerbacks are good enough to shut down our reserves.  You can expect them to focus like a laser on E.J. Scott, and I don't think he's ready for a featured role.

Where the defense is exploitable is at safety.  Matt Robinson has horrible luck in the injury department, and he'll miss yet another game this season, leaving true freshman Anthony Nixon to get the start.  If the Hoos can use Jake McGee to try and exploit this, or if Bill Lazor draws up some route patterns to confuse Nixon, Phil Sims just might find some open receivers.  Of course, then they have to catch the ball, but so it goes.

Sims is going to have to win this game, though.  He won't likely have a rushing attack to help him out.  And Maryland can bring a good pass rush from just about anywhere.  I like the odds of getting McGee back into the big-play column, but truthfully I have no idea whether Sims's deep bombs will continue, or whether they'll work if so.  Far too many variables out of our ken, like catching the damn ball and throwing a damn PI flag every damn once in a damn while.  If we win this game, though, Sims will have had a big day.

-- Md. run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Justus Pickett: 46 carries, 137 yards, 3.0 avg., 3 TDs
Wes Brown: 33 carries, 150 yards, 4.5 avg., 1 TD

Md. offense:
86.0 yards/game, 2.16 yards/attempt
122nd of 124 (national), 12th of 12 (ACC)

UVA defense:
180.5 yards/game, 4.95 yards/attempt
107th of 124 (national), 9th of 12 (ACC)

Now we start to get to the good news: the run game.  Specifically, Maryland's which is horrible with a side of pathetic.  To make matters even better, their leading RB, Wes Brown, won't be playing.  Part of those butt-tacular numbers are due to the enormous number of sacks they give up, but that doesn't exactly speak to the greatness of the O-line, either.

With Brown out and several of the Maryland O-linemen playing but battling through injuries, there is a chance here to play some old-fashioned shutdown defense.  No Brown means the Terps will split carries among Justus Pickett (also a tad banged-up), Albert Reid, and Brandon Ross.  Pickett has his moments, but has served more as Maryland's short-yardage back.  Reid and Ross aren't a concern.

It's as good a time as any to remind you that the UVA stats are horribly skewed by the Georgia Tech game and without that, UVA is in the top one-third of the country in run defense.  Maryland brings nothing tricky here, except for such times as they might bring Stefon Diggs through the backfield to take a few carries.  At the risk of sounding like I'm on repeat from the past few weeks, any time they do that instead of sending him on a pass pattern is a win.

You'd expect our team's pride to be good and wounded after the past few weeks.  The best place to fix that is right here.

-- Md. pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Perry Hills: 71/123, 57.7%; 940 yards, 7 TDs, 6 INTs; 7.64 yds/attempt

Top receivers:
Stefon Diggs: 17 rec., 364 yards, 3 TDs
Marcus Leak: 14 rec., 231 yards, 2 TDs

Md. offense:
188.0 yards/game, 7.6 yards/attempt
53rd of 124 (national); 6th of 12 (ACC)

UVA defense:
220.7 yards/game, 6.6 yards/attempt
53rd of 124 (national), 6th of 12 (ACC)

So if Maryland can't move the ball on the ground (we hope) that means it falls on the shoulders of Maryland's freshman quarterback Perry Hills, right?  And that's a good thing, right?

We'll see.  You know how this defense has been with big plays.  UVA has given up 7 pass plays of 40 yards or more, which is more than almost everyone in the country.  And it so happens Maryland has the ability to do that in the form of Stefon Diggs, whose big-play ability has lived up to his five-star rating.

The battle between Tre Nicholson and Diggs should be a classic, and could well decide the whole game.  And Nicholson will need safety help, and not for them to bite on play-action fakes.  There should be no need to; the front seven can handle it.  If the safeties stick to their assignments and stay back, they'll force Maryland to move slowly down the field instead of getting all the yards at once, and Maryland can't do that consistently.

Other than Diggs, Maryland's passing game is on and off.  They don't attempt a lot of passes in the first place, and Hills has all the inconsistencies of a freshman.  Marcus Leak is a decent second option to Diggs, but the Terps are underutilizing tight end Matt Furstenburg, who was the preseason all-ACC choice at his position.

Good news also comes in the form of Maryland's pass protection, which has been hideous.  Hills hasn't helped; he hangs onto the ball too long.  UVA hasn't had a multi-sack game since Penn State, and that was all Steve Greer on blitzes.  Not only do I think we can finally get off the schneid again, I think the D-line can get it done.

It's nice, for a change, to go up against a pass offense that isn't some nasty-good well-oiled machine.  Between Casey Pachall, Anthony Boone, and Colby Cameron, it's been a while since we went against a quarterback who was likely to miss all on his own accord.  The pass defense has been shredded by good quarterbacks.  Perry Hills might be on that level one day, but not now; he's more Matt McGloin than Anthony Boone.  This is the opposite of the offensive line, which has been improving against bad defenses but will be tested on Saturday.  Finally the pass defense gets a break.

-- Outlook

In a Q&A between SBN blogs, Testudo Times said the way to beat the Terps is "pass, and pass deep."  Hm, who do we know who might be willing to do that?  It's been said that if Sims had just been able to connect once or twice against Duke, the whole game might've been different.  I don't know about that, because it wouldn't have stopped our defense from getting torched.  Here?  I'll buy it.  This game should hold a lot of similarity to the PSU game: a defensive struggle decided by a big play here or there.  Back then it was a blocked extra point.  Both Maryland and UVA have the capacity to earn that big play in the pass game, and whoever loses will probably swear up and down that the game would be different if you could just go back and change one or two plays.

-- Prediction summary:

-- UVA finally picks up more than one sack.
-- Perry Jones is UVA's least productive running back on the ground.
-- Neither team has a back gain more than 50 yards.
-- Jake McGee catches a pass of 30+ yards.

(oh what the hell.....)
Final score: UVA 19, Md. 17

-- Rest of the ACC:

Slow week this week.  Clemson, GT, NC State, Wake, all with byes.

Duke @ Virginia Tech, 12:30 - Please please please pleeeeeeeeeeeeeezz.

North Carolina @ Miami, 2:30 - If the Hurricanes become Coastal Division favorites, and nobody's there to see it, does it count?

Boston College @ Florida State, 5:30 - Pissed off FSU = slaughter alert.