the recruit: Darius Jennings

Name: Darius Jennings
Position: WR
Hometown: Baltimore, MD
School: Gilman
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 175

ESPN: 81; four stars; #15 ATH; US #98
Rivals: 5.8; four stars; #10 ATH; MD #4; US #191
Scout: four stars; #43 WR

Other offers: Michigan, Nebraska, Ohio State, Virginia Tech, Penn State, Oregon, Illinois, Georgia Tech, Boston College, UCLA, North Carolina, Stanford, West Virginia, Maryland, Iowa, South Carolina, NC State, many others

Signing Day brought a bushel of good news for Virginia fans, starting around 9:30 or so with Darius Jennings's commitment, the first of two on the day. A look at that offer list - which isn't comprehensive - is all you need to know about why UVA's class got a lot of publicity on that day. Jennings filled a major hole in the class: playmaker. Dominique Terrell would join in a couple hours later, and the two players turned the offensive skill positions from a semi-question mark to a huge strength of the recruiting class.

Jennings conducted his recruitment in the classic style, naming a top 10 and then slowly whittling it down to six, then three, and finally choosing UVA at crunch time. As things went along, the coaches felt confident enough in their position to stop recruiting project players like Demetri Knowles and put their eggs in the biggest basket they could find. And by December, I was confident enough to predict that he'd end up a Hoo when all was said and done. It wasn't automatic, though: Jennings named a final three of UVA, Ohio State, and Wake Forest. Jennings played quarterback at Gilman, and Wake was the only one of the three offering him the chance to do so in college. And OSU is, you know, kind of good.

But the answer in the end was woohoo. Wide receiver is a significant position of need for the Hoos - not in terms of numbers, but just plain ol' talent. Proven quantities are Kris Burd and ???. (Matt Snyder is a proven quantity, and a solid player, but an offense that depends on the playmaking abilities of Matt Snyder is going to drag itself to another 4-8 finish.) Tim Smith was the only other four-star talent in the lineup, and he's coming off surgery. His playing time is limited, and E.J. Scott probably has talent but won't have any more time on the playing field than Jennings will.

And Jennings really has the pedigree. He dazzled on a big stage - the Maryland prep school circuit that includes powerhouses like DeMatha and Good Counsel - so much so that the Maryland HS Rivals affiliate named him the Maryland POY over higher-rated players like Cyrus Kouandjio and Blake Countess. He led Gilman to a 35-10 whomping of DeMatha; the Baltimore Sun gave him runaway Baltimore OPOY honors; and he joins Demetrious Nicholson as a Gatorade POY honoree as well. Hyperbole abounds whenever a high school coach is asked about him.

Fact is, Jennings has major potential to add a dimension to the UVA offense that hasn't been there for at least a decade: the electric, playmaking wide receiver. Billy McMullen was the last really great receiver at UVA. (Kevin Ogletree was pretty sharp too, of course, but really only for one year, and he left too soon.) And McMullen was a different kind of receiver - a taller, jump-ball-grabber that was fast enough. Jennings is probably only six feet tall on tiptoes, but he's explosive and allows Bill Lazor to make the playbook a little more interesting. Even though there are plenty of bodies in front of Jennings on the seniority chart, it'll be a surprise if he redshirts.

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I'd be awfully remiss if I didn't celebrate, somehow, the outstanding effort on the JPJA floor last night. It seems like Senior Day always goes badly. Not this time. Will Sherrill and Mustapha Farrakhan were honored for their contributions - and truly, these are two players that worked their way up from absolutely nothing, and took advantage of the coaching change - and then went out and had a night to remember on the floor. Sherrill dropped 5-of-7 for 14 points and 8 boards. Yeoman's work was done on defense, especially on NC State's star senior Tracy Smith, who was held to just four shots. (Sidney the Big Red Coat bears some credit for that too. How do you play your best player just 18 minutes? It's not like he was in foul trouble. Criticize Dave Leitao how you will, but he never made Sean Singletary sit for over half of any game.) I said great three-point shooting would be needed, and the team came through with 10-for-21 - Sherrill and Joe Harris hitting eight of the ten makes.

UVA almost certainly won't drop below the 10th seed.** And it would take a very convoluted set of twisted circumstances that start with us beating Maryland on Saturday, and ends with the coming of locusts, in order for UVA to jump into the 7th seed. That means basically we're looking at the 8/9 game again, probably with Duke awaiting the winner, and almost certainly against Miami. Mark your calendars for next Thursday at 12:00 noon, and start game-planning for the Canes.

**For those who just have to know, a two-way tie for 9th and 10th would be between UVA and NC State, so obviously we win. A three-way tie would include Miami, which involves a 1-1 round-robin of results, so the next tiebreaker is how you did against the league's best team, then second-best, until you can break the tie. A three-way would be problematic, because it involves UVA, Miami, and NC State at 6-10 - and the only way NC State gets there is if they beat Florida State on Saturday. Not likely, but still. If FSU beats UNC tonight that would lock them into the 3rd seed, and nobody's beaten UNC or Duke in our little three-way mini-conference, so NC State beating FSU would be very bad for us. It would give NC State the 8th seed, and Miami gets the 9th because they beat UVA.

So basically, if you like the idea of the 8/9 game - and I do, at least, better than the 10th seed - root for FSU on Saturday. Or root for Miami to either win or lose both of its next two so that the tiebreaker is only between UVA and NC State.

game preview: Boston College

Date/Time: Sat., February 26; 12:00

TV: RSN

History against the Eagles: 7-5

Last matchup: BC 70, UVA 67; 1/18/11; Boston

Last game: UVA 62, GT 56 (2/23); Miami 74, BC 63 (2/23)

Opposing blogs: BC Interruption, Eagle in Atlanta

KenPom:

National: UVA #108; BC #70
Offense: UVA #140; BC #14
Defense: UVA #83; BC #225

If you want to see what might have been, if any of the woulda-coulda-shouldas had come through (not collapsing against Miami, beating Wake Forest like we were supposed to, etc.) look no further than Boston College. One game separates these teams in the ACC standings, and Boston College is praying for an NCAA tournament bid while UVA's best shot is probably a low seed in the NIT. Yes, there's Seattle. BC has Yale. We are on the brink, folks. Next year. Just wait.

Meantime, there's Boston College, and the shoestring tournament bids riding on this one qualify it for EPIC SHOWDOWN status. So I turned to BC Interruption to learn more about the Eagles. Standard Q&A wizardry. The other half is there at BCI, as usual you are compelled to click over to find out more about my own take on things. Including that which I almost never do unless asked: a prediction and score.

1. How are BC's tournament hopes?

Hanging on by a thread.

BC's 16-11 (6-7 ACC) record isn't much to look at, but the Eagles' benefit from strong resume numbers, including an RPI of 50 and a conference-best SOS of 16. Now, about that 3-7 record in their last 10 ...

Given BC's strong resume numbers, all they have to do is start winning again. Three wins to end the regular season, plus a decent-to-above average showing in the ACC Tournament probably gets BC in. If the season ended today, the Eagles' would probably find themselves playing in Dayton on a Tuesday. Next week's mid-week game against the Hokies is probably an NCAA Tournament eliminator. Cage match style.

2. BC graduates something like eight seniors, and Steve Donahue inherited a program with literally zero scholarship underclassmen for 2010-11 and had to scramble to put together a recruiting class. What's the outlook for next year?

Pain.

BC graduates Trapani, Raji, Paris, Southern and Dunn next season, and will be left with these players who have gotten significant minutes this year: Reggie Jackson (34.0 minutes), Danny Rubin (18.5), Dallas Elmore (16.3) and Gabe Moton (13.8).

Next year, Donahue will have Matt Humphrey, a transfer from Oregon, and six incoming recruits. Four of the six hail from Southern California -- PG Jordan Daniels, SG Lonnie Jackson, PF Ryan Anderson and C Kyle Caudill. Donahue is also bringing in SF Eddie Odio (Miami, FL) and PF Dennis Clifford (Milton, MA). So while Donahue is doing a good job reloading and bringing in players to fit his system, it will likely be a slow process ... and a LONG season next year.

3. How about further down the line? Is Donahue the right guy for BC basketball?

I think so. Far soon to tell, though. Donahue is playing with house money this year, and the fact that we are even talking about the NCAA Tournament as the calendar hits March is a good sign for his long-term prospects. Donahue took a less-talented roster of players that don't fit his system and has already won more games than last year's team ... against a much more difficult schedule. Opposing team writers and fans seem to come away from watching BC games stating that the Eagles are a very well-coached team.

Only two knocks so far on Donahue: home attendance and defense. I think the former will improve over time as Donahue builds a winner at BC. The latter ... well ...

4. Why does BC have a really good, efficient offense - rated 2nd-best in the ACC by KenPom - but they can't stop anyone on defense?

Over the last few years, BC has had a higher offensive efficiency than defensive efficiency. Defense was one of the team's flaws under Skinner that led to a change at the top. But this year, the offensive-defensive bipolarity is off the charts. I can't put my finger on the root cause. Sure, BC gets killed in the paint without a true big man on the floor, and this team gives significant minutes to three walk-ons, but even still, the defense shouldn't be that bad.

Donahue's teams at Cornell followed the same pattern -- highly-efficient offenses and porous defenses. Hopefully this problem gets better as he brings in guys to fit his system. The defense has to improve though, because there's nowhere to go but up.

5. Eight seconds left, BC is down by 2, with the ball, and Reggie Jackson just fouled out. Who's taking the shot?

Joe Trapani.

Trapani has been a workhorse for the Eagles over the last 10 games, averaging 16.5 points a game and 4 double-doubles over that span. A transfer from Vermont, Trap doesn't have the raw talent and athleticism that Reggie Jackson has, but he makes up for it with effort. Trapani can beat you on the dribble or drain the three ball. A lot of fans have a love-hate relationship with Trapani, but he's really come on strong down the stretch this season, and he'll certainly be missed next year.

6. Prediction?

A big, big test for Steve Donahue and the Eagles. Win, stop the bleeding, and keep your NCAA Tournament hopes alive. Lose and BC probably ends up hosting an NIT game in front of 5,000 fans. Being the homer that I am, I think Donahue gets this team to respond on the road, and we live to see another day. Then again, in typical BC fashion, it will be far too close for our liking ... 68-66 Eagles.

Beaucoup gracias to BCI. And best of luck in the cage match.

HOW WE CAN WIN

- Patience. Shots will come. BC's defense has gotten even worse since we played them. They can't force turnovers, and teams always find good shots. There are a multitude of ways to score on the Eagles. Patience, fortunately, is a strong suit of ours.

- Defend the paint better. Last time did not go well for the Hoos down low. BC, normally a good three-shooting team, shot very poorly from long range, but made up for it with stellar work in the paint. Center Josh Southern had four assists and no turnovers. That can't happen; for a big, Southern's a good passer, but not that good. Joe Trapani was 7-for-10 inside the arc. Southern, 3-for-4. And BC had 25 free throw attempts. Hopefully Will Sherrill can play more than just five minutes. Assane Sene will need to be a major presence and must stay out of foul trouble. BC's offense is one of the country's most efficient and very difficult to stop, and UVA has to at least make them work for their points.

HOW WE CAN LOSE

- BC shoots like BC. They were an uncharacteristic 6-for-21 from long range in the last meeting, which helped keep the game close. They're much better than that.

- Let Joe Trapani get going. Trapani is a UVA-killer. As nasty-good as Reggie Jackson is, Trapani's the real matchup nightmare in my book. When UVA beats BC, Trapani is invisible, but otherwise he's all over the floor. Joe Harris and Akil Mitchell will probably be assigned to guard him, and they've got to find a way to make him one-dimensional, preferably by keeping him out of the paint as much as possible.

HOW THE GAME WILL GO

BC is so damn bipolar it's ridiculous. I don't think you'll find another team in the country with such a huge spread between their offensive and defensive effectiveness, the latter of which has gotten even worse since last time. Of course, I don't buy into the idea that they're struggling, either - sure, they're 2-6 since our last meeting, but UNC and Duke account for half those losses, and FSU a fourth. It's been a tough schedule since January 19, and they've swept Maryland this year. The only actual bad loss was the latest, against Miami, which is only going to serve to piss them off.

And yet, I like what I see. UVA is 3-3 in the last six and frankly, none of the losses were uncompetitive, despite what the Duke score said. This team has had the willpower to beat back adversity in the last two games. They're playing like they're on a mission, even if nobody's real sure what the mission is. The BC offense is highly efficient, but not unstoppable, and the UVA defense has been getting much better, game by game. And of course, BC can be scored on. As long as shots are falling at the rate they should, the chances look good for a third straight win.

catching up

Ordinarily I'd have the Duke preview tonight, but I've run out of different ways to say just how doomed we are, and you don't need me to tell you anyway. I have catching up to do after my long weekend, so I'm gonna do that instead. And skiing in New Mexico was awesome, thank you very much. Hidden gem of skiing in the West.

- First, a recruiting board update. There's a junior day tomorrow, and like you, I'd sure like to know if it's likely Mike London can pick up his first commitment for 2012. But I do get to make the calls on the recruiting board, so here are the updates:

- Added OT Mark Harrell and DT Nigel Williams to green.

- Added WR Romond Deloatch to yellow. Deloatch is one of the very few names on the board without an offer. He'd probably be green if he had one. Nobody's offered Deloatch at all (not even verbally which is the only kind allowed at the moment anyway - it's an academics thing) but he's the kind of player you recruit anyway and hope the grades follow. Lot of talent.

- Added WR Leonte Carroo to red.

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The Duke game isn't the only thing going on tomorrow anyway. The ACC swimming championships kick off tomorrow with the women's event. It's a four-day swim meet, culminating on Saturday, and the men have their turn next week. And your humble writer is a former high school swimmer so you have to listen to me go on about it.

Last year I scored out the psych sheet and found that the women would in all likelihood breeze to the championship. They proceeded to breeze to the championship. This year's psych sheet shows a closer meet, but one that should still end with our girls on the podium again. The scores:

Virginia - 791
North Carolina - 690
Florida State - 435
Maryland - 374
Virginia Tech - 309
Duke - 212
Miami - 212
Georgia Tech - 128
NC State - 103
Clemson - 93
Boston College - 60

What is a psych sheet, you may be asking yourself? A psych sheet seeds swimmers in each event based on their best time of the season. It's highly unofficial. Well, the times are real, but the meet isn't as simple as that. There are limits both statutory and practical on how many swimmers can swim in an event. And most times will drop. Disqualifications will be a factor - they always are. Oh, and it doesn't include the diving because most schools didn't include their divers' scores. But UVA is stacked with freestylers and the highest-scoring individual event for UVA on the psych sheet is the 400-yard individual medley (IM) - 100 yards of each stroke. Having the most and fastest freestylers and the best IMers is the way to win these meets. The psych sheet may be a pretty unofficial thing (the actual lineup won't be disclosed until the actual meet) but it tells you pretty well who to watch out for. The bottom three teams will be nonfactors in the individual events, and the only real threat to another repeat championship is Carolina.

Swimmers who'll shine for UVA include Claire Crippen (sister to the recently deceased Fran) in IM events; Liz Shaw in IM and butterfly; hotshot freshman Rachel Naurath in just about anything; Lauren Perdue in sprint freestyle; and Katya Bachrouche in distance events. The grueling 1650-yard freestyle (one mile) could see a 1-2 for UVA with Bachrouche and Anne Summer Myers.

The men go next week, at which time I'll score out their psych sheet and you'll have to listen to me blab about it all over again. It's my blog and the swimmers will get their time in the sun once a year. Besides, this should be the first ACC championship of the year for UVA, so you should be excited about that.

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The schedule slugs at the ACC finally got around to letting us know about the fall football slate. NC State returns to the ACC schedule, and Boston College disappears for another three years. Of course all the times are TBA - except one. A rare Thursday night appearance is in the offing, at Miami on October 27. (UVA doesn't do Thursday night home games, so the road is the only chance for one.)

Things I think:

- The bye week is where I was hoping it was: October. I hate September bye weeks, it sucks having two weeks of football and then missing one right away. And it was before the VMI game last year, as if we needed extra practice time for VMI. This year it precedes Georgia Tech, which is terrific.

- I was hoping, though, that the September 17 weekend would be filled with something a little easier than a trip to UNC. Because London continues to sell the "team on the rise" story, going on a long winning streak to start the season would be perfect for bolstering that sales pitch. The nonconference schedule is easy as pie (assuming William & Mary got all their upset-mindedness out of their system two years ago) with Southern Miss the toughest opponent. Indiana is going through a coaching change and isn't good anyway. Idaho is Idaho.

- The OOC gets a lot harder next year, since Indiana and USM are the tail end of home-and-home agreements, and Idaho is a one-off that doesn't involve a return trip. Try TCU and Penn State, with Louisiana Tech (looks to be very recently added to the VAsports.com future schedules page, also now updated here) filling the last spot.

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Other things:

- Ron Mattes has taken the position of OL coach at Elon. A step up, because he was officially a graduate assistant last year, which doesn't pay. Too bad, because of the highly improved play of the O-line - Mattes surely had a hand in that. But you can't keep GA's around forever; they have a two-year shelf life, per NCAA rules. TE coach Scott Wachenheim is now the OL/TE coach, which was probably the plan eventually. London's being coy about the replacement GA that'll be hired, but the rumor - which I have no qualms whatsoever about shamelessly spreading - is that it'll be Marques Hagans.

- Will Sherrill looks like a maybe for both Duke, and the rest of the year. I hate to be like this, but: ah well. This was a bigger deal in December when he first got hurt, because there were still Things To Do. Now there aren't too many tangible things that this season can accomplish, so more playing time for Akil Mitchell and Will Regan can't hurt.

- As you can see, Tech is scared shitless of London's recruiting chops, and they gently nudged aside one of their most elder statesmen as a result. Billy Hite has been at Tech longer than Beamer, but he's kind of an old guy and not much of a recruiter. Shane Beamer is, and he'll take Hite's spot as RB coach. RBs don't really need much coaching, and the position is often used for a star recruiter (like Beamer Junior) or, in UVA's case, a sounding board for offensive strategy, like former offensive coordinator Mike Faragalli. Shane Beamer gives Tech an instant boost on the recruiting trail.

- Fluff piece on Stephen Bruno, likely shortstop. Fluffy but informative. Bruno steps into Tyler Cannon's biggish shoes at the most important infield position, but Bruno hit well last year in bench duty, and there shouldn't be much, if any, loss of firepower in the lineup from this change.

Speaking of baseball, I was going to start a season preview for baseball this week, but I decided it'd be better to wait. This is because I like being right, and seeing how the lineup looks in actual games instead of a lot of guesswork is a big step in that direction. The next two weekends are important - a tournament at Auburn and a home series against East Carolina - and Brian O'Connor will probably reveal his lineups then. So after the ECU series, which is the last weekend in February, look for all the baseball you can handle.

the waiting is the hardest part

It's not that hard, seeing into the future. You just have to know where and when to look. Basketball games these days are a good start. The Future Channel doesn't come in HD, of course; it's a staticky, broken-up picture. Sometimes it's there, sometimes not. It's clearest when you see things like aggressive close-outs that follow a crisp, well-executed double team; it fades out again when the ball is heaved carelessly out of bounds on the ensuing possession. The future is right there on your TV, but it's like listening to the radio on the very edge of the broadcast radius, with other stations fighting to be heard on the same frequency, replacing your Aerosmith with local community college talk radio every time you drive underneath a power line.

We're getting there, of course. It just sucks to wait. It's frustrating to watch this team play like a talented ACC powerhouse for 30 minutes, only to be foiled when the opposition realizes what it's dealing with. UVA had Duke fooled for a half and then some. They played exactly the aggressive, close-out defense I wanted to see. They forced entry passes to be caught too far outside the paint to be of any use and then double-teamed the shit out of the post man. They cheated outside the pack-line just enough to hurry Duke's three-pointers and eliminate the mid-range jumper that they've feasted on since about 1991. On offense, Jontel Evans and Mustapha Farrakhan drove with authority and kicked out to wide-open three-point shooters. Assane Sene somehow knew when to be on the offensive glass and when not to be.

And then it all went to shit when Duke remembered they were Duke and further took note of where Mike Scott was. The lack of anyone at all who can reliably score from inside affects everything on offense. There's nowhere to pass to except around the outside. You can drive, but Duke was basically playing an inverse box-and-one: four guys running around playing man-to-man and one seven-foot lummox stationed near the basket to discourage any thoughts of driving the lane. The lack of a respectable big man not only takes away your plays for scoring down low, it takes away most of your guards' options too because there's no good reason to respect anything you'll do within twelve feet. Duke simply deployed Ryan Kelly and/or Mason Plumlee around the basket and told them to swat any flying round objects. UVA's guards got the hint and ceased all attempts at aggressiveness.

Still: the future. So many pieces to a successful basketball team are missing from this one. No respect-at-all-costs scoring threat. No size. The future is visible in those glimpses of what's being accomplished despite that. Any team that can be leading Duke, by nine, at Cameron, in the second half, is a force to be reckoned with; give it back its best player, add a couple highly talented recruits, and give it a year to grow up, and you've got the reason Tony Bennett was hired. It'll be worth waiting for. It just sucks having to slog through the static to get there.

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Other stuff from the game:

- Didn't hear much out of Kyle Singler on Saturday. Part of that was because Duke was riding Nolan Smith's hot hand, but UVA did an excellent job defending Singler, holding him to his third-lowest scoring total and second-lowest rebounding total of the year. Singler's a matchup nightmare - he's Will Sherrill with athleticism and a better jump shot. Holding him to 13 and 4 is outstanding work.

- Mike Patrick and Len Elmore are supposed to be pretty good broadcasters, but they sounded like local radio. Basic knowledge of the visitor's roster was horrendous. I don't even know what Jontel's last name is any more; Patrick and Elmore offered a number of different suggestions, trying out "Jontel Harris," "Jontel Evans," "Jontel Davis," and "Mustapha Farrakhan" with equal emphasis throughout the course of the broadcast. That's when they weren't calling the real Mu "Mustapha Farracan." Small wonder people think the Worldwide Leader exists to cater to certain teams only.

- Speaking of hilarity from the WWL, it made me giggle to listen to the broadcasters praise Mike Kry-whatever for remaning calm in the face of adversity to provide his team with a "teaching moment," only to watch Coach K go apeshit in the very next timeout. I would make some kind of a comparison to Tony Bennett's timeout demeanor during the game except there were never any cameras on him. Duke, you see.

- The refereeing brought zero complaints from me, which is weird for a UVA game and really weird for one in Cameron. I thought it was very even-handed, actually, which probably means it was tilted in UVA's favor. At any rate, they failed to give Duke the platinum-membership treatment they're accustomed to, which helped the first half go as well as it did.

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I don't know when this week I'm going to be able to get to this, so now's as good a time as any to update the recruiting board. This is in advance of what shapes up to be a huge recruiting weekend. Practically this whole class committed before official visit season began, so most will be in town, along with a couple of the biggest of the biggest targets on the board. Ahead of the weekend, it's time to whittle a few names off the board and get ready for the homestretch. Updates:

- Removed DE Horace Arkadie from blue - he committed to Arkansas. That's one of the main five targets down, though Arkadie was almost certainly fifth of five on the wish list. Mainly that's a function of space and already-committed players, although it's always hard to get a Texas kid out of the southwest.

- Removed WR Brandon Reddish from yellow - Syracuse commit.

- Removed LB Nick Menocal from red - looks like a definite to stick with Miami.

- Moved LB Curtis Grant from green to blue. Remember how I've been saying UVA would at the very least be one of the hats on Grant's table? Well, here we are: Grant will take an official visit to UVA, a change from his earlier stance of figuring he'd been to Charlottesville enough. That's good enough to move him up. Bleacher Report thinks he's down to Florida and Ohio State only, but that report was derived from the rectal extraction tables.

I've said it before, I'll say it again: Curtis Grant just can't stop hanging out in Charlottesville. I like our chances just as much as OSU and UF like theirs.

- Lastly, Daquan Romero now shows up in the database, a week following David Watford, so his status is changed to "enrolled."

The 2012 board is thisclose to being ready to go. Really I'm just waiting for a good chance to unveil it. If not this week, and this week is likely, then next. Possibly the weekend.

now what?

The weekend brought two pretty significant clarifiers to the next two months of basketball. First, a loss to UNC that could easily have been a win, and second, the thoroughly unsurprising news that Mike Scott will undergo surgery and seek a medical redshirt.

Scott's news is barely even news, really. The longer he was out the more likely it became that he and the operating table would enter the ring for round two. It did come as a surprise that UVA held an 11-point lead in the second half against UNC. We learned that if we'd had Mike Scott, and if the refs ever called UNC for the moving screens and over-the-backs they commit, and if our guys really gut up and play nasty defense, and if they hit shots, and if they have a good, sold-out crowd at their back, they can almost win a game against a really good team.

Which naturally is a useless lesson on a team consisting of freshmen and Mustapha Farrakhan. I promise you there will be at least one game later this season where the team looks they have no idea why someone hung an iron circle over the pretty wooden playground, and they'll try to knock it right off its pegs. But it's nice, at least, to know what they're capable of when they play defense.

I do feel pretty confident in saying that would have been a win with Mike Scott. Once UNC figured out what we were up to on offense, they were able to use their superior athleticism to harass our guards on the perimeter and effectively put a stop to it. Hell, simply having Scott's five fouls would have been a plus; our bigs shuffled in and out all day with foul trouble. Will Regan and Akil Mitchell simply don't have the strength to consistently nullify the height disadvantage they had, and Will Sherrill is a gimp. (His effort in this game, and probably the rest of the games going forward, should not be overlooked. I refuse to go the the gym for an hour if my muscles are too damn sore from the day before; Sherrill's leg bone still isn't all in one proper piece and he goes diving onto the floor for loose balls. Then he asks to come out of the game because his tibia just bit him in the shin and gimps right back in a minute later because someone picked up a fourth foul.) Given these obstacles, the quality of defense played on the interior was astoundingly good. Regan and Mitchell are in for a baptism by fire these next two months, but that was a good start and matchup-wise they won't have it much rougher than that going forward.

The goal for the season, simply put, should be a winning record, for which we'll need to go 6-8 the rest of the way. Easily done if Mike Scott was in the lineup; a scratch-and-claw battle without. The lesson from UNC is that continuing to play like that will probably make it happen; the lesson from last season is there's no telling how many times we'll see it.

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A quick recruiting board update is in order, with two removals due to commitments: QB Gary Nova to Rutgers and WR Demetri Knowles to Tech. Knowles is blazing fast, and the UVA staff probably would have accepted his commitment in the summer when UVA was his only offer, but he dawdled. It became clear as time went on that guys like Darius Jennings and Dominique Terrell were keeping UVA in their minds, and the class started filling up for serious, so the bus left the station. When's the last time Tech was picking up UVA's leftovers and not the other way round?

A 2012 recruiting board is in the works and should debut soonish.

game preview: Iowa State

Date/Time: December 30, 8:00

TV: Comcast Sports Network

History against the Cyclones: 1-1

Last matchup: ISU 81, UVA 79; 12/6/04

Last game: Seattle 59, UVA 53 (12/23); ISU 104, Chicago State 63 (12/21)

Opposing blogs: Clone Chronicles

KenPom stats:

National rank: UVA #101; ISU #51
Offense rank: UVA #105; ISU #72
Defense rank: UVA #106; ISU #36

Yo. The basketball team, and I, return from Christmas break only to come face to face with a Cyclone. Before the season this looked like one of the likeliest wins of the BCS-team games on the schedule, but Fred Hoiberg has his team doing very well and poised to greatly exceed the last-place expectations foisted upon them. Combined with UVA's pre-break loss to Seattle, this is no longer a game in which UVA should be considered the clear favorite. The good news is that Mike Scott should be much healthier than he was against Seattle and Will Sherrill will make his return, so Tony Bennett will once again have a full frontcourt to work with.

HOW WE CAN WIN

- Find the right combination. A sizable portion of Iowa State's roster is comprised of transfers waiting their turn, so as a result they run very thin. But unlike Virginia Tech which also uses a rotation of only about seven players, all types are represented. Diante Garrett is a real playmaker who can create for himself and his teammates. Jamie Vanderbeken is a true post-up center at 6'11". Scott Christopherson is hitting on more than 50% of his 3's. Jake Anderson is a quick guard with a nose for loose balls and long rebounds. It goes on; the point is that ISU has a group of players that has every skill you'd want. But those will be the players on the court; if Christopherson is having an off-night, or if Jontel Evans proves able to harass Garrett into some turnovers, or if Melvin Ejim can't handle Sherrill's versatility, Hoiberg doesn't have other options to go to. UVA has a deeper bench - Tony Bennett's challenge tonight is to tinker and find the right combination of players to tilt the matchups in our favor.

- Hit some shots please. Please.

- Atmosphere. Unfortunately it's still winter break. But, as with Oregon, ISU is getting their first true road test of the season. They've yet to play a game outside the state of Iowa; the Cyclones' only two road games were a loss at NIU and a win over Iowa. An early lead would go a long way toward some atmosphere at the JPJA and perhaps rattle a few of ISU's younger players.

- Keep Diante Garrett outside. Garrett can hit everything consistently but three-pointers - he's a little weak there but he likes shooting them anyway. With 17.2 points and 6 assists per game, Garrett creates about 40% of ISU's offense on his own. The odds for UVA increase significantly if Garrett is forced by his defenders - who will probably be Jontel Evans and Mu Farrakhan for the most part - to take his shots and make his passes from outside the arc.

HOW WE CAN LOSE

- Three-point barrage. ISU likes shooting 'em, and UVA gives 'em up. Even Vanderbeken, the 6'11" galoot, can hit them - in fact, he's something of a matchup nightmare since he's the team's second-best three-point shooter. If he and Christopherson start knocking them down it'll be a very long night.

- Individual matchups. It's likely that, one-on-one, ISU will win the matchups battle. Garrett is the best player on the court. UVA has no individual answer for Vanderbeken. And so on. If UVA allows the game to be decided by individual matchups, doesn't trap wisely on defense, and doesn't move without the ball on offense (thus forcing the man with the ball to beat his man one-on-one), it's likely to be a lost cause. If UVA is to win this game, it'll have to be with a huge assist from the Bennett's system and X's and O's.

HOW THE GAME WILL GO

ISU has been impressive in the early going, suffering only a couple losses, and close ones to decent teams at that. They've destroyed the teams they should destroy and they've racked up impressive stats along the way. Very metrics-friendly season so far. Despite that, they've struggled in their games against upper-level teams and their strength of schedule is piss-poor. They lost at home to California and came close to losing to Iowa and believe me when I say Iowa sucks rather fiercely. The respective seasons of the two teams so far have swung the pendulum of expectations from UVA to ISU, but playing the game on our home court and the thinness of ISU's rotation conspire to make this game a pure coin-flip. This one will come down to the brass tacks of shooting and execution, and the team that does them better will win.

christmas wrap

It's Christmastime, the time of blessed hope and salvation and biblically exciting stuff like that, so I'll send you off into the holiday break proclaiming the good news about a few things that probably have UVA fans a little bit jittery.

- Mike Scott. "ARGH" almost turned into "ARRRRGGHGGGHGHGHHG" when it was learned about half an hour before the Oregon game tipped off that Scott had had ankle surgery and would be out of the lineup.....and then his absence nearly caused a loss to one of the nation's utter worst teams. Fortunately, the Hoos escaped with a 50-49 win over Norfolk State (after handling Oregon impressively which would have been a lot more exciting had they not just lost to Idaho last night.) Assane Sene's tip of KT Harrell's missed free throw was the difference between gnashing our collective teeth over a loss that should never happen, and shrugging our collective shoulders in a way that says, "well, we play five freshmen, what did you expect?"

Because Scott's surgery was one of those arthroscopic deals, hope remains intact that he (and possibly Will Sherrill too) can be back for the Iowa State game on New Year's Eve Eve. The wake-up call sent by Norfolk State should remind everyone that tonight's Seattle game shouldn't be taken for granted either, but there still remains a very large, shiny silver lining to these two injuries: minutes for Akil Mitchell and Will Regan that wouldn't otherwise be there. Mitchell snagged six boards in 17 minutes against Norfolk State, so things are looking up on the development front.

- Ralph Friedgen. The Fridge's firing at Maryland has a lot of media wonks wondering, "COTY fired after an 8-4 season? Why, how can this be??" Actually, it's pretty logical. Disappointing to those of us who hoped that this season would give the Maryland admin reason to allow their program to further stagnate for a couple more years, but logical nonetheless. It's not hard to look at Maryland's roster and incoming prospects and realize that 8-4 is about the peak for the program as it is now. If 8-4 and a crappy invite to the Military Bowl is the best you'll ever do under the current coach, it's time to cut bait. The Terps are totally unable to protect this house on the recruiting trail: Maryland is, pound for pound, one of the better states in the country for football talent, and these days teams all around the East Coast and Midwest just waltz in there and take what they want. Of the top 20 prospects in Maryland, the Fridge convinced just two of them to commit to the Twerps, and one of them (Jeremiah Hendy) just decommitted. UVA has five of the Rivals top 20 and could add a sixth in Darius Jennings. You can see why the Maryland brass thinks this is an unacceptable situation.

The unfortunate part of this is that Maryland is after Mike Leach, and they'll probably get him. Some folks, myself included, were hoping they'd hire Mike Locksley from New Mexico, but they're not that stupid. However. Leach is well known for being an offensive genius and for turning Texas Tech into a national title contender, if only briefly. Even so, his teams were more often of the 8-5 variety than the 11-2 type. And even in his better years, 9-win type seasons, he stumbled too frequently against the Colorados of the world to pose a major Big 12 threat. Against ACC competition that doesn't feature a Texas or an Oklahoma, Maryland fans will be thinking multiple Orange Bowls with Leach, but don't you worry: if Mike London is the right guy for our program, then he'll win his share and then some against Maryland. And if not, then it won't matter who coaches Maryland.

- Demetrious Nicholson: yessss. Consider the defensive back situation moved up a peg from "still worrisome" to "more or less addressed." UVA adds another marquee name to the '11 class, and a threat to start from Day 1. Cornerback is now officially the strength of the class, with Nicholson teaming up with Brandon Phelps (among others) to wrest the title from the defensive line.

Recruiting board is updated accordingly, as is the depth chart because it needed it. (The recruiting board also sees the departure of Travis Hughes to UNC and Blake Countess to Michigan. Both are about the best result I could hope for without them actually committing to UVA: Hughes' other choices were VT and Maryland.)

That finishes it up. Christmas break commences now. As mentioned earlier, posting resumes on either the 28th or 29th, but probably the 29th since I have a busy 28th. Unless something sufficiently awesome happens between now and then, and I feel like breaking out the laptop. Merry Christmas. Here's hoping Santa brings you everything you asked for, and with luck he'll stop by the McCue Center chimney and drop off a playmaking wide receiver.

game preview: Virginia Tech

Date/Time: December 5, 6:00 PM

TV: FSN

History against the Hokies: 79-53

Last matchup: VT 61, UVA 55; 2/13/10

Last game: UVA 87, Minnesota 79 (11/29); Purdue 58, VT 55 (12/1)

Opposing blogs: Gobbler Country, The Key Play

KenPom stats:

National ranking: UVA #80; VT #48
Offense: UVA #47; VT #90
Defense: UVA #134; VT #18

ACC basketball season officially kicks off on Sunday; the first conference game of the young year is the VT game this weekend. I'm hoping that maybe Blacksburg will still be hung over from the ACCCG the day before, but it didn't work out real well the last time I tried to use that game as a crutch of hope. It is, of course, even sillier to hope VT students will be studying for finals.

HOW WE CAN WIN

- Win the fouls battle. Tech is one of the worst teams in the country in this regard, averaging over 21 per game. UVA is one of the better ones, with under 17. Jeff Allen is the biggest culprit, having only once this season managed to keep it under four, and fouling out of three of Tech's seven games. Tech's other starting bigs, Victor Davila and Terrell Bell, have each fouled out of a game as well, and they have a real tendency to be forced to play the game in foul trouble. Tech's propensity to foul aside, UVA must not get into foul trouble, not with Will Sherrill sidelined. Assane Sene and Mike Scott need to keep their noses clean or UVA's lack of frontcourt depth is going to be abused by Tech's bigs. And of course, the corollary to Win The Fouls Battle is Make Your Free Throws.

- Defend Malcolm Delaney. Jontel, that's you. Delaney was a hideous, draft-stock-murdering 2-for-18 against Purdue, and Tech goes as Delaney goes. In their loss to Kansas State he was 6-of-18 from the field. Delaney typically plays every minute of the game, so Jontel Evans can be his primary defender but Mu Farrakhan and probably Billy Baron will have to take their turns as well. And really, it ought to be a team effort, with Tony Bennett drawing up rotation responsibilities and implementing the Delaney Rules - I'm willing to let Tech's other players take their cracks at the basket, because they're not likely to be able to carry the team if Delaney is having another lousy night.

- Slow it down on offense and play perfect transition D. This is kind of a generic key to the game here, much like "don't throw interceptions" and "for the love of God stop false-starting" in football. It applies to every ACC game, especially every road ACC game, especially every road ACC game in gyms where they hate us. Turnovers on the offensive end and easy buckets for the opponents in transition will get you slaughtered in the ACC, especially on the road, and unfortunately that's exactly the kind of mistake UVA's been prone to this season. Recall a sequence in the Minny game in which Minny was able to answer a Joe Harris three-pointer with one of their own, because the team loafed back in transition and failed to mark the one guy on the court (Blake Hoffarber) that should never go undefended. Bennett called a time-out immediately and ripped the team for it, and it didn't happen again. Even one time is one too many in the ACC.

HOW WE CAN LOSE

- Fatigue. Hey, it's a factor. Charlottesville to Palo Alto to Maui to Charlottesville to Minneapolis to Charlottesville to Blacksburg to Charlottesville is a nasty travel schedule. It's the kind of thing that can multiply the hostile-gym factor and turn a close game into a downhill snowball. Fortunately, Tech is the team with the more recent game, and it was a real letdown-type, an overtime loss in a game they probably should have won. But it's UVA that'll really have to guard against a tired, let's-just-get-out-of-here mentality.

- Get out-athleticized. Quick, athletic guards have been the bane of our offense this year, and Tech as a whole is probably the more athletic team. (UVA has athletes, it's just that most of them have some serious holes in their game.) This is one of the few teams that won't be able to exploit a size advantage over UVA, but Delaney is one of the conference's top players and Tech's forwards are fast movers for their size.

HOW THE GAME WILL GO

It'd be foolhardy to predict a win, but I have to think the odds of it are better than many may think. VT will likely be unable to take advantage of two of UVA's three biggest weaknesses. Nothing we can do about the youth, but Tech is actually a smaller team than UVA is and they don't roll very deep. Injuries have had a lot to do with both. The tallest player we'll see is 6'8" Victor Davila, except for the likely five-minute cameo by Cadarian Raines. With the exception of the Delaney-Evans matchup, UVA will usually have the taller players on the court. And Seth Greenberg's "rotation" involves playing his starters for over 30 minutes apiece.

But Tech is a top defensive team, and it's not easy to go inside on them. In order to win, the aerial assault has to be in good working order, so as to loosen up the lane a little bit. Tech plays physical - a little bit dirty - and they're not afraid to create contact. It's a style our freshmen won't be used to, and therein lies VT's ability to take advantage of the third weakness. Above all else, composure and ice under pressure will be needed.

A low-scoring game is in the works here. Neither team is equipped for a 90-point shootout, nor is it their style. Last year's games were 65-65 and 61-55 after 40 minutes, and there's no reason for that to change. The good news is, that tends to work in favor of the underdog. But VT will be desperate, having just blown their best chance at a resume-garnishing win for the tournament. And they'll have the best player on the court, and they'll be at home. Those are the kind of factors that usually tip a game in a team's direction. KenPom projects a 19% chance at a UVA win; I think the number is higher than that, but still an uphill battle.

bastaball, part 2

Continued from yesterday....

#15 - Billy Baron

Best-case: No change in the minutes he gets after Sammy Zeglinski returns from his knee injury.

Worst-case: Overwhelmed. Point guard duties with Evans out of the game fall to some combination of Harris, Harrell, and Farrakhan until Zeglinski returns.

In a perfect world Billy Baron could get his feet wet playing the 2 and get some low-pressure minutes at the 1 when the opponent is USC-Upstate or Howard. In a perfect world Sammy Zeglinski's various joints that keep him upright wouldn't keep bugging out on him. Instead, Baron is your default backup point guard, which means he's in for serious minutes in a pressure situation.

Baron is actually older than your average freshman, having spent a year at prep school in order to play basketball against better competition than he had in high school. This inspires a certain level of confidence. As does his being a coach's son. "Overwhelmed" is the worst-case, because it's the default worst-case for any freshman point guard, but there's little reason to believe Baron is in any danger of that. Standard stuff about how if he can shoot he'll be infinitely more valuable goes here, but if he can just be a better-shooting version of Evans without the yard-dog defense, while probably running less of the offense until he catches up, then that's a win.

#22 - Will Sherrill

Best-case: Is able to shut down the opposition's bench players.

Worst-case: Forced to try and shut down the opposition's starters.

Sherrill wormed his way into the rotation by being better than anyone else at doing the things Bennett demands but nobody sees on TV, like footwork on defense, setting screens, and generally always being in the right place at the right time. Excellent basketball sense. Unfortunately, he's also inordinately slow, can't jump, and is strong like ferret. Ivy League athleticism to go along with his Ivy League mind.

He's largely a defensive player, therefore. Other than a couple SUPRIZE big-man three pointers and some putbacks, he won't be scoring. If the rest of the team is performing well enough in the Bennett-demanded facets of basketball, Sherrill can come off the bench and probably do a pretty good job against the other team's backups. If Sherrill is a starter, he'll almost certainly be physically outmatched.

#23 - Mike Scott

Best-case: As with last year, double-double machine. Also, emotional team leader who sparks game-winning second-half runs.

Worst-case: Overdoes the emotion thing, goes on tilt, gets streaky, occasionally gets benched and/or tossed out of a game.

Mike Scott has a way of letting things get to him. When Dave Leitao announced to the team that he'd been fired, it was Scott that stormed immediately out of the room, overturning innocent trash cans in his wake. He has a way, sometimes, of letting that get out on the court, too, and it's not always constructive.

But it often is. Scott has a nose for rebounds, a jump shot (which he probably uses too much), and some soft-touch post moves. He can be streaky, disappearing from some games and dominating others. The key this season will be to channel that emotion positively and let it work for him, not against him. He's a senior captain, so it's imperative he make that effort. More than anyone else on the team, he's got the capacity to get the JPJA fired up beyond belief, and if things are going well he'll probably be the most visible guy on the court. If not, he'll be conspicuous in all the wrong ways.

#24 - K.T. Harrell

Best-case: Nothing less than the ACC Freshman of the Year.

Worst-case: J.R. Reynolds-level willingness to shoot, Mustapha Farrakhan-level consistency.

Harrell is probably going to assume the mantle of primary perimeter scorer. Yes, the competition for top freshman is fierce, especially with Harrison Barnes at UNC and Kyrie Irving at Duke. If those guys are productive starters, one of those two will get that award based largely on the uniform they wear.

But the talent level on the respective teams means Harrell will have more chances to shine. Granted, I've set the bar a little higher for Harrell than the other freshmen. But they're largely specialists, at least to start out. Harrell has a chance to lead the team in scoring. I don't know whether it's a good sign or a bad sign if he does, but he might.

The problem will be if he starts feeling the need to do too much. Which will happen if the rest of the team can't also score a little. Inconsistency is the hallmark of freshmen, and it's a flat guarantee for freshmen who the opposition keys in on because the rest of the team doesn't scare them. The other concern is that Harrell gets bypassed by other players because of their performance, or his lack thereof, of the Bennett-demanded facets of the game. (I might need to start abbreviating that.) Bennett's proven himself beyond willing to bench talent in favor of guys who play his system better. Because Harrell was handpicked by Bennett, unlike for example Tristan Spurlock, the chances of that are much smaller. But still.

#25 - Akil Mitchell

Best-case: Will Sherrill, only athletic.

Worst-case: Redshirts.

As with Regan, that's worst-case for this year for Mitchell personally, because it means zero out of him, but not even remotely the worst thing that could happen big-picture.

Anyway, Mitchell and Sherrill are about the same size and play about the same role. But Sherrill's knowledge of the system is impeccable and Mitchell's is an unknown quantity right now. It's not likely Mitchell will, in just one season, know the whens and wheres like Sherrill does, but if he can mimic it passably enough, he'd represent a galactic athleticism boost.

In any case, Mitchell is definitely one of the biggest wild cards of the class. The proverbial X-factor. How Akil Mitchell does this year will affect practically every other frontcourt player except for Mike Scott. Because he's such an unknown, he's the hardest to project, but my initial thought is that if Mitchell excels, the domino effect will be tremendous, allowing a number of other players to fill more natural roles.

#34 - James Johnson

Best-case: Forms a potent 1-2 punch down low with Mike Scott.

Worst-case: Garbage time only.

Besides Assane Sene, Johnson is the biggest dude we got, so he'll be given every chance and then some to succeed. If he plays defense the way Bennett wants, I think the offense will come naturally. Optimally, Johnson could either be able to spell Scott alongside someone like Sene or Sherrill, or play alongside Scott if Bennett wants to go big on offense. The former can happen if his offensive game develops, and the latter, if his defense is where it should be.

I don't like to think of the possibility, because it'd leave a big hole in the frontcourt, but a lack of defense means he'll sit. Frontcourt is where Bennett has his options - I wouldn't say he has depth, because that would mean he has options of more or less equal quality. Not really the case, but there are options, and whoever plays the least defense, sits. If that's Johnson he'll be a human victory cigar (or, uh, loss cigar), because, being as big as he is and as skilled as he hopefully is, he's one of the most important building blocks.

********************************************

It should be said here that these "best-cases" are set up so that they really can't all come true at once. Mostly for the freshmen. They're going to get in each others' way at first, because there aren't enough minutes to go around so that all of them can play huge roles. But they'll all have their chances. The rotation, obviously, isn't going to be too well set until the ACC season is well underway. And some of these guys are going to end up stashed on the bench pretty permanently, once that rotation settles: Bennett only wants nine or ten, which means a couple odd men out. Who might that be? Damn near impossible to say right now.

I make no predictions for the course of the season, except for very general ones. There should be a minimum of seven wins to be found in the nonconference schedule, barring any oh-shits coming our way from someone like William & Mary. Assuming the 50/50 games like LSU and Stanford turn out just that way - 50/50 - then you're talking nine or so wins in the OOC. That means in order to improve on last year's 15-16 mark, we need to also improve on our showing in the ACC itself. As ever, that's a tough road. So when they say UVA is about the 11th best team in the conference, they're probably right. The results will be what they be, but the real takeaways from the season aren't going to be in the win/loss columns.

basketball bits and recruiting board update

Time for a little housekeeping. Basketball stuff's been happening.

- First, not to put it too bluntly or anything, but Jeff Jones is gone. So much for keeping the recruiting class of 2007 intact like I mentioned a few weeks ago. My take: shit. Long-term it's not a huge deal as Jones only had a year left, but it's a big problem for next year. Jones' shooting improved dramatically this year; it was still streaky, but the good streaks were a lot longer than the bad ones this time. When all was said and done he was the best three-point shooter we had. For the three games Sylven Landesberg was out, Jones stepped up as a go-to guy, averaged 15 points, and shot 9-for-15 from three-point land. That was Jones' one job on this team. It's fair to say that under Leitao he was a total bust, and equally fair to say he had turned it around under Bennett in a big way, becoming one of the most important players on the team. This team needed Jones's stroke from deep to succeed.

Scholarship-wise there's almost no impact, other than to make it even more likely that Will Sherrill gets off the hook for paying his way. For next year's rotation, the biggest beneficiary is likely Joe Harris, supposedly the best shooter of the bunch. I still have no interest in trying to predict a rotation - I recommend a ouija board if you really must know - but Jones was the player Harris was most similar to, and it's not hard to project him to an increased role now. Meantime I hope Sammy, Bub, and Mu are shooting 1,000 jump shots a day.

- Second: the ACC coaching carousel spins and spins. Boston College fired the winningest coach in school history and has replaced him with Steve Donahue, who you might recognize as the guy who brought Cornell to the Sweet 16. I have no opinion on Donahue, and recommend you check out BC Interruption if you want to know more. Doug Doughty has some interesting things to say, pointing out that the atmosphere surrounding the BC-UVA game in Boston this year was a huge symptom of the reasons behind Al Skinner's dismissal. "Atmosphere" is a poor choice of words, because there was none; I was at that game, and Doughty can use the "official" attendance figure all he likes, but the attendance at that game would have had to triple for the place to be half full. I'm guessing 1,500 was more like it. BC was lousy this year and nobody noticed; Skinner's firing was a given.

Less of a given (a lot less) was the news coming down from on high today that Oliver Purnell would be leaving Clemson for DePaul, a Big East member that's been trampled underfoot lately. Dave Leitao did a good job at that school and then Jerry Wainwright completely cratered it; Purnell is coming in to fix it and earn a dumptruckload of money in the process.

This could go either very well or very badly for Clemson. Lately, when filling out my tournament brackets, I had an ironclad rule that never failed me: When in doubt, never ever ever bet on Oliver Purnell. His teams always raced out to a big start to the season and folded like a cheap card table down the stretch, culminating in a loss to some double-digit seed in the tournament. Still: tournament. My gut feeling is Clemson won't really be able to attract quite the talent they'd like for the head coaching job, and will take a semi-permanent step backwards.

- Jeff White has a nice article on the unprecedented success of the swim teams. Unprecedented: yes. Unrepeated: I very much doubt it. The future is bright here, as both teams continue to return the bulk of their talent and Bernardino continues to succeed on the recruiting trail.

Lastly, the recruiting board gets another update. It's looking pretty robust these days, as you'd expect in the time where the coaches have fired off a bunch of offers and most the players are still not ready to narrow down the list yet. Here are the changes:

- Added WR Daniel Adams, CB Jeremiah Hendy, LB Zeek Bigger, and QB David Watford to yellow.

- Added CB Kyshoen Jarrett to red.

big-picture recruiting

Slow news day today. There's no midweek lacrosse game and baseball is taking on Towson, which is terrible. I thought I'd take the opportunity to take an early stab at projecting the 2011 recruiting classes in both basketball and football. Not with names, mostly, but a big-picture kind of look.

FOOTBALL

There are 14 seniors departing after the 2010 season, and the team is one shy of the limit of 85 after Riko Smalls' departure, so there are 15 for-sure openings. There is always attrition and you can always count on some redshirt juniors not being asked back for a fifth year. I think there are two or three candidates for that. So a class size of roughly 20, plus or minus a couple, is what I'd expect.

On offense, the staff is probably going to be pretty judicious with the offers they send out at the skill positions. Lazor's offense doesn't need a whole lot of receivers; in fact, with Adrian Gamble on board, the staff probably wouldn't have a lot of heartache if he was the only one. There are a couple guys on that board that you take no matter what, like maybe Quinta Funderburke, but the numbers at receiver look about right for now.

Same for running back. Clifton Richardson is basically onboard already and Nyjee Fleming appears likely enough to follow; once those two are in the bank, that'll be all we need. Quarterback too; London scooped up everyone he could find at the end of the last recruiting cycle and the only real reason to take one this year is the principle that you basically want one every year because you never know. They've offered who they like, if they find another they like they'll offer him too, but there's already a whole bunch coming in the fall and there's no need to cram a whole bunch more into that tight a space. One is all we need.

O-line, however, is a place where you always, always want to stack up as much depth as you can, and take three or four in every class. Thus the offer cannon has been readied. Between the Rivals offer list and the recruiting board here, there are probably 10 or 12 linemen already out there for the looking, and maybe one of them will end up at UVA. Offers are going to be flowing out of Charlottesville to offensive lineman all spring and summer.

So on offense: say two running backs, one or two receivers, a quarterback, and 3-4 linemen. Throw in a likely tight end as well, and of the target 20 scholarships, about 9 or 10 for the offense.

There's a slightly greater need on defense. Starting with the defensive line, where thanks to the switch from the 3-4 to 4-3, defensive tackles are suddenly in demand, big time. One is already in the house (David Dean), I really like our chances with DE Rob Burns, and we still need more. Ends and tackles alike have been offered with regularity, and my thought is that four, maybe even five linemen is the target.

So you'd think that linebacker would take a corresponding drop in demand, but I'd guess not. The staff moved Ausar Walcott and LoVante' Battle down to linebacker with the idea of increasing the speed at that position, but what that did to the numbers is give us five scholarship sophomore linebackers, and six scholarship linebackers in all the other classes combined. That means two things: one, someone like Battle or Connor McCartin is a prime candidate to put the redshirt back on this year so as to even out the numbers a bit, and two, in the long-term - like, 2012 or 2013 - we're going to be slammed with departures if we don't do something to soften the blow. That means at least two, possibly three linebackers in this class of 2011. Travis Hughes and Curtis Grant are both take-no-matter-what prospects if we can get either one, and there are a couple other LB's in blue on the recruiting board. Offers will continue to roll here.

And hey, we're suddenly thin in the secondary too, thanks to the aforementioned position switches. Plus, one of my biggest heartaches over Groh's recruiting was the near-complete lack of true cornerbacks recently. I think Demetrious Nicholson is one of the biggest must-gets in the class for that reason. Must collect defensive backs - both safeties and cornerbacks. There's already one in Matt Bailey, but five defensive backs is not too many, split about evenly between CB and safety. Four seems like a more likely number.

All told, that's 4-5 linemen, 2-3 linebackers, and 4-5 DBs. No way do we clock in at all three upper limits, but I think UVA takes 10 defensive players at a minimum and probably more like 11, maybe 12.

BASKETBALL

Basketball recruiting is grimy as hell, so I try to avoid it as a topic, but this is big-picture stuff so it's OK. There is an open scholarship in 2010 and it looks like it's going unfilled, except for maybe giving it to Will Sherrill as a senior present. Regardless, it makes four openings in 2011.

Tony Bennett's no dummy, and he knows that tying ten scholarships in two classes (it'd be six in the '10 class and four in '11) makes for some ugly numbers. You don't want your back against the wall when it's time for them to go. So Bennett's actively going for a two-year transfer. This would have a lot of benefits, but one of them is that his scholarship would free up again in 2013, one year before this six-man monstrosity of a class finishes their eligibility. Help spread the schollies around. If he can't get Justin Hamilton, and I hope I hope I hope I hope he can, he'll find someone else.

That leaves three for the '11 class, which is a perfectly normal size. And one of them is a stone-cold lock to go to a big man as long as Tony can find one that can fog a mirror and not be a defensive neanderthal. You know as well as I do that if Marshall Plumlee wants to be that guy at UVA, there's a spot for him.

Two big men would be an even better deal for the class and that's probably what Bennett will press for. Thing is, though, of the six coming in 2010, only two really qualify as big guys. Being as we lose Mike Scott and Sherrill after this season, that'll leave us with - as of now - Assane Sene, James Johnson, and Will Regan to man the interior. Hence the push for Hamilton and Plumlee. If by some miracle we get both, then what we'll need is a 6'8" power forward type. If we don't, then whoever has the best combination of size and skills, whether that be a seven-foot tree or another Scott type that can be asked to bang down low despite being a bit undersized for the job.

Lastly, a point guard. The guard offers out so far are all point guards. About the only true, honest-to-god point guard we'll have going forward is Jontel Evans. Sammy is a two guard with some one-ish abilities, and Billy Baron is a point guard on the same concept of having your best athlete play quarterback: whatever gets the ball in his hands the most. Baron might stick at the one, or shift to the two.

Bottom line here: the 2011 class has some very, very clearly defined needs. A true point guard and a true center. And a pony, while we're asking. We're awfully needy at both positions, but so is 90% of the nation. If Bennett can score one player who perfectly fits the description of a true 1 or a true 5, that'll be pretty good. To make a safe prediction: three guys in the class - two tall and one short. Plumlee tops the wish list; Angelo Chol would look pretty good as Tall Guy #2. I sort of suspect the point guard will be someone we haven't heard of yet. Someone who plays Bennett Ball, whatever that is.

argh

Doesn't take long to put an end to one's tournament dreams, does it? I'd say it took just over two minutes of game time - about what it took to lose a three-point lead in Cassell - to slam home the reality that what we have here is just what I called it during the Q&A lead-in to the GT game: a lower-mid-level ACC squad. Capable of beating you if doing things right, but only if for forty consecutive minutes. The hoopsters followed up the loss to Poly with a very balanced effort - crappy defense in the next game and crappy offense in the one following - and the result is that a very different style of bracketology is in the cards for the rest of the year.

I look at this two ways: one, I clearly jinxed the team to hell and back with that post that highlighted the team's offensive improvement; and two, they couldn't have done a better job proving that post correct. Other than the Maryland game (which was still as bad a meltdown on offense as the other four games in this losing streak) nothing has really changed on defense. Honestly. It's as solid (or not solid, whichever you think) as it's ever been this year. But the offense took a dump on the floor and rolled around in it. It's that bad. I could recite a litany of numbers to this effect, but I think the one that really matters is 15-for-81: that's the three-point shooting in these four losses. 18.5%, if you want to know. You'll never win basketball games like that.

What's going on, then?

- As you might have guessed from that statistic, Sammy Zeglinski is just completely ice-cold. Nothing he shoots goes in these days.

- Sylven can't go anywhere on the court without being hounded by two defenders. Obviously nobody is scared of anyone else ever hitting a bucket, and with good reason. Try to set a screen for Sylven and not only does your own defender switch over to him and cut off his lane, but Sylven's guy just drops underneath the screen and finishes the double team. He's also showing a pretty clear reluctance to try anything left-handed, and the defenders are giving it away knowing he won't take it.

- Florida State played pretty good defense, but even when they weren't, the team forgot all their junior-high fundamentals. They pump-faked open shots and then took the shot once the defender had arrived to contest. They drove the lane without any forethought whatsoever. They grabbed offensive rebounds and did the infuriating one-dribble before taking the shot back up. They got careless with the ball and lost the handle on it. They forgot about the shot clock entirely. They passed to phantom teammates. That game was 2009 redux: terrible offense leading to easy buckets for the opposition and making the defense look worse than it actually was.

- We have defensive players and we have offensive players, and the problem is the defensive players can't all be on the court at the same time and the same holds true for the offensive guys. I think Tony Bennett sees this and is awfully limited in his substitutions as a result. There are only three players who are about equally useful on both offense and defense: Scott, Sherill, and Farrakhan - and the latter is such a streaky shooter that he's really a stretch. The rest have gaping holes in their game on one end or the other. Ever see, for example, Sene and Meyinsse on the floor at the same time? Rarely, because you can't pass to either one of them in the post. Try putting Jones and Zeglinski both in the game at once and the perimeter defense is going to collapse miserably. Even Landesberg gets beat more often than he should. Jontel has no jumper and Baker has no handle, and you won't see them share a backcourt much, if ever. So rather than totally give up one end or the other of the court, Bennett pairs an offensive player with a defensive one and the result is predictable - sometimes it works, sometimes it don't. This is actually just fine as long as the offensive players are playing effective offense, but that hasn't happened lately.

There are lots of things we could try here and there to fix this mess and right the ship. Finding the open man when Sylven gets doubled off the screen would be a great start. Not letting Calvin Baker play the point would be another. Four out of five dentists agree, though: hitting your jump shots® is the most effective treatment for Shitty Offense Syndrome. It's amazing how many problems would fix themselves when the jump shots are falling and the defense has to care about that. It sounds overly simplistic, doesn't it? Sometimes that's the way things are.

Oh, and in case you're wondering, no, I'm not going to use the three-games-in-five-days excuse. Was it a factor? Maybe it was. Me, I hope it wasn't, otherwise we can forget about ever winning an ACC tournament.

Remember, now, I made no predictions for this season other than to guarantee an improvement over the 4-12, 11th-place showing from last year. This has been done, so theoretically everything else is gravy, but it sure would suck to end the season on a nine-game losing streak. Make that improvement feel like no improvement at all. There are two games left on the schedule against teams worse off than we are in the ACC standings, and both are on the road but not in the scariest gyms in the world. Winning these games, which happen to be against Miami and Boston College, would do wonders. Two lousy games, that's all we need. That would be good enough for the NIT, which has proven itself happy to take a 7-9 ACC team and doesn't concern itself much with resumes and strength-of-schedule wins and all that jazz that the big tournament cares about.

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Programming note: I am so sowwy for not having anything for you to read yesterday; it was supposed to be the first day of my ACC baseball preview, but circumstances conspired against me. So that gets pushed back to next week, because tomorrow the baseball team kicks off the season with a big series against East Carolina, and I want to do something to actually acknowledge that that exists.

first basketball game ever

On the videos page, that is. I finally got around to chopping up the highlights for the Cleveland State game, which was the first - and remains the only - basketball win that's been shown on TV in these parts. It's not that important a game (I'd really have liked to have that UAB game), but hey, it's something. If you like watching tall white gumpy walk-ons go apeshit for twenty minutes, this is the game for you, as Will Sherrill spent like the entire second half dropping jump shots and generally being a huge pain in Cleveland State's butt. And yet check out how wide-open he is at about 5:30 of the video. You'd think they'd learn.

game preview: UAB

So we're back. Hope your Christmas was a good one. Lots of schwag from Santa's bag, family, big-ass ham or turkey or other tasty animal (or maybe latkes if you maybe light a menorah instead of a tree), too many cookies, mistletoe, the works.

The hoopsters had a pretty good time of it while FOV was on break, but only against the crappiest of crappy competition; we didn't get the answer to whether or not UNC-Wilmington would be the roadblock we worried about. Everybody played against both NJIT and Hampton, which is about the extent of the analysis you need - both games were slaughters, as expected. We'll get our crack at Wilmington in a few more weeks.

Might seem like the Wilmington game will be diminished in importance, what with it now coming in the middle of the ACC season, but I say just the opposite. There's a scary-real chance we'll need that game to break up a three-game losing streak.

Anyway, the task at hand is UAB. And if you weren't convinced by their #24 ranking in the AP poll, I'll tell you right now: we're as underdoggy as we'll be in a lot of our ACC games this year. UAB already has one major-conference skin on their wall (Cincinnati) and a win over never-shabby Butler. They'll probably be a tournament team this year.

The good news is Mike Scott is back on the court, and should probably be in action tomorrow. We'll need him in order to take advantage of (what I think is) UAB's weakness - they're very much a donut team. No middle. They start four guards and a forward, and they rely very heavily on their starting five. Pretty strict 8-man rotation, and only three forwards in the group, two of which are bench players and really don't even get half the minutes of the guards. On the offensive end, if we can get the post players involved, Scott especially but also Sene, Sherrill, and/or Meyinsse, we ought to be able to find a mismatch somewhere. Either that or force them to take their better players off the court.

At the other end, UAB would seem to be the kind of team we match up well against. There's only one real scoring threat down low - that'd be forward Howard Crawford, whom a healthy Mike Scott would dominate on the boards - and they don't rely all that much on the three-pointer nor shoot it exceptionally well. It's the kind of offense the pack-line should handle pretty well. What worries me is Elijah Millsap. In our losses, we've been vulnerable to shred-a-thons by the opposition's top guy. Penn State had Talor Battle. USF had Dominique Jones. Stanford had Landry Fields. They all topped 20 points and mostly without needing a lot of three-pointage to do it. Millsap is both a scorer and rebounder, and the #1 worry for this game would be that he decides it's a good time for 26 points.

The other obvious worry is the talent gap, which sucks to say as an ACC team going into a game with a C-USA team. Mismatches go both ways - if we can find them with our size, they should be able to find a few by forcing our bigs to guard their quicker players. Jerome Meyinsse is many things, but quick is not one of them. This will probably be a closer game than the rankings and records would indicate, but, as with pretty much every game from here on out, we need to do everything right in order to come out on top.