game preview: Virginia Poly

Date/Time: November 28, 3:30 PM

TV: ESPN

Last matchup: VT 17, UVA 14

Last week: Clemson 34, UVA 21; VT 38, NCSt 10

History against the Hokies: 37-48-5

Line: VT by 16

Opposing blogs: Gobbler Country, College Game Balls, and don't forget to scroll down and check out the Q&A with GC.

I am shamed somewhat. As might have been kind of obvious, I've sort of been mailing in these previews. Football has been depressing me to the point where I start these previews and all I can think is, "we're going to lose anyway." I mean, I've been right, but as the Clemson game proved - or more specifically, the Simpson-at-wildcat formations and the trick plays proved - the coaches and players haven't given up at all. Say what you will about Al Groh, but when he says he's going about the business of coaching and not paying attention to the rumors, it's not just coachspeak. He means it, and it rubs off on the players. So if the game previews of late have been weak sauce, that changes this time around.

It helps, of course, that this week's opponent is who they are. It's hate time, people. I may have told this story before, but it's worth a retell. This is a true story. It's how you know I was probably destined to be a Hoo before I even knew it. This was back when I was looking at colleges - not even deciding who to apply to, but who to even look at and think about applying to. UVA was on the list. So was Georgia Tech. I thought to myself, Virginia, Georgia Tech....Virginia Tech might also make sense, right? Five seconds later I had forever disabused myself of that silly notion. I wanted to go to school in a college town, not a college trailer park. And besides that, I'd have to spend the rest of my life wearing colors that would make Helen Keller vomit, let alone the rest of us that actually have to look at that abomination, and cheering for a turkey. So that was out, and I never even bothered a second look.

HOW WE CAN WIN

- Empty the bag of tricks. I fully expect this to happen, actually. This is it for Al Groh. He's not showing it, but surely he knows it. There's nothing to save up for any more. Last year he brought out Vic Hall in the wildcat and Poly had no idea what to do with it. Last week it was Mikell Simpson, plus the pass to Torchia off the reverse. I was a little annoyed that it wasn't being saved for this week, but you have to believe Groh has more stuff ready to go. Remember, he used to pull this stuff out pretty regularly. Flea-flickers, hook-and-ladders, all that stuff. It's coming back on Saturday, and we'll need everything in there to get this done.

- Stuff Ryan Williams. There's a near-perfect correlation between holding him under 101 yards and Tech losing the game. Duke is the only exception. Williams is the key; Tyrod Taylor scares nobody.

- Want it more. We don't have the talent to match up, and can't win without this.

- Defensive touchdowns. Even if they bring the bag of tricks, the offense needs the help.

HOW WE CAN LOSE

- Williams doesn't even need to break off big plays to beat us. He can do it four and five yards at a time. If we let him do that, over and over, we're not going to win.

- Turn the ball over. I think we can win if we do all the right things, even if VT doesn't turn the ball over a whole mess of times. But if we turn the ball over? We can't overcome that.

- Overreliance on boilerplate, vanilla pass plays. I don't mind if we hand the ball off a lot. Helps the defense, and Rashawn Jackson can carry the load, we know this. But we also all know how lousy the passing game has been. The pass should be sparingly and creatively employed. We can't win a shootout.

HOW THE GAME WILL GO

I don't know, and I hope that's a good thing. Obviously, the conventional wisdom is that we haven't got a chance, and so the more unpredictable the game is, the better. And I think it will be unpredictable. I think last week, with the new wrinkles, was just a sneak preview. Groh is cagey, and the Hall tactic last year was ever so close to working. There'll be more this year. Win or lose, I definitely think it'll be closer than the line says, and I'd bet on us to at least cover.

REST OF THE ACC

It's rivalry week in a big way.

North Carolina @ NC State, 12:00
Wake Forest @ Duke, 12:00
Clemson @ South Carolina, 12:00
Miami @ South Florida, 3:30
Boston College @ Maryland, 3:30
Florida State @ Florida, 3:30
Georgia Tech vs. Georgia, 8:00

That will likely be it for posting this week. I have an afternoon flight tomorrow. Happy Thanksgiving, everyone! Don't forget to messily slaughter, stuff, cook, carve, and eat a turkey. Do it for the good of humanity.

game preview: Clemson

Date/Time: November 21, 3:30 PM

TV: ABC/ESPN (!)

Last matchup: Clemson 13, UVA 3

Last week: BC 14, UVA 10; Clemson 43, NCSU 23

History against the Tigers: 8-36-1

Line: Clemson by 21

Opposing blogs: Block-C, Shakin' the Southland

Do you know what you're going to be doing in 2013? I sure as hell don't. This might sound like a repetitive theme but it is weirder than weird that we share a conference with this team and it'll be four years until we play them again. We never even played against the Jeff Jagodzinski edition of Boston College. The four year gap ensures that, barring a medical redshirt for someone at some point, nobody who takes the field in Saturday's game will do so the next time these two teams meet. It's less weird when it's an expansion opponent like BC. This is a founding member of the ACC we're talking about. Someone really needs to rejigger the rotation. I might have some proposals for this in the nearish future. Anyway, Clemson.

HOW WE CAN WIN

- I'll defer to Block-C here, and their answer to the question about how they lost to Maryland: "...it seemed like we just didn't prepare at all for that game....We just didn't take them seriously and it severely bit us in the ass." So there you have it. If Clemson doesn't prepare or take us seriously. Not that this isn't possible, but Clemson has something very important at stake here, so it's unlikely.

HOW WE CAN LOSE

- The usual, obviously.

HOW THE GAME WILL GO

Well, Clemsonians like to point out that their defense is among the best in the conference, which it is, and therefore likely to stop us in our tracks every time. This is true, but my answer is, how much worse can they make our offense? We can't move the ball against anyone - Clemson ain't special. BC did about what I said they should do, which is run the ball lots and lots. Clemson will do the same and would love the chance for their Heisman candidate to rack up the stats. Montel Harris carried 38 times last week; I wouldn't be surprised if C.J. Spiller tops 40. No disaster of Miami proportions, but this has all the makings of a game where we just get the fight coldly and efficiently strangled out of us and lose something like 27-3.

Two small things:

- This game is on national TV because every game other than UNC/BC is likely to be an even bigger stompfest, and because Clemson is likely going to clinch their spot in the ACCCG. So get ready for the C.J. Spiller Show and a 50/50 chance of the announcers even acknowledging Clemson has an opponent. I put the odds at 2 to 1 in favor of hearing "Rashawn Johnson", "Steve Green", or "Ras-I Downing" when referring to our players.

- Marc Verica is out on the injury report, Hall is questionable, and Sewell probable. And Clemson has the kind of defense that makes quarterbacks have very bad days. Saturday might see the Riko Smalls debut.

REST OF THE ACC

Duke at Miami, 12:00
North Carolina at Boston College, 12:00
Maryland at Florida State, 12:00
NC State at Virginia Tech, 3:30

game preview: Miami

Date/Time: November 7; 12:00

TV: Raycom

Last matchup: Miami 24, UVA 17 (2008)

Last week: never you mind what happened last week

Line: Miami by 14

Opposing blogs: Anton Azucar, The 7th Floor

It's still very weird that Miami is an every-year opponent these days. But it means we get next year to try and take revenge for whatever's going to happen this year.

It would appear, by the way, that Marc Verica is getting the start this Saturday. Whether that's because Sewell's ankle is bothering him, or because he's been playing poorly, or because he's been playing poorly because the ankle is bothering him, doesn't much matter. Neither, really, does the quarterback switch - not when the pocket collapses against a four-man rush on a regular basis and nobody can get open anyway.

HOW WE CAN WIN

- [null set]

HOW WE CAN LOSE

- Step onto the field.

HOW THE GAME WILL GO

We're doomed. Here, watch this instead.

REST OF THE ACC

Virginia Tech at East Carolina, right now

Maryland at NC State, 1:00
Duke at North Carolina, 3:30
Wake Forest at Georgia Tech, 3:30
Florida State at Clemson, 7:45

game preview: Duke

Date/Time: October 31, 3:30

TV: ESPN 360 (so, not actually TV)

Last matchup: Duke 31, UVA 3 (I most emphatically do not have highlights)

Last week: GT 34, UVA 9; Duke 17, Md. 13

Line: UVA by 7.5

Opposing blogs: none, really.

Injury report

(I always forget this. I probably shouldn't even bother. Tomorrow for sure.)

Al Groh is many things, and among them is this: Master of the Completely Improbable. We have both wins and losses of that variety. And not many of them have been more improbable than what happened last year against this team. Losing would have been surprising enough. Losing that way.....well, Al Groh's legacy will be stuffed full of games that didn't go the way they were supposed to. It would be really nice to erase the memory of last year with a nice result this year.

And I scarcely need mention that this is basically an elimination game for our bowl hopes.

HOW WE CAN WIN

- As Al Groh pointed out, Duke is a pass-first team. That's more out of necessity than anything, if you ask me. They can't run the ball. Can not run the ball. Take away the NCCU game (against a 1-6 I-AA team) and they're averaging 1.6 yards a carry. So I'm taking it for granted (dangerous, but I will anyway) that our defensive line will chew up and spit out their running game. That puts the onus on our secondary to shut down their receivers. Fortunately, we have some pretty good players back there, too.

- Take advantage of big opportunities. I think our defense will give us a few. I'm not sure the offense can capitalize. They will have to, or we'll be ripe for an upset.

- Jameel Sewell needs to take over the game. Duke's passing defense is the weak point on that side of the ball. They're giving up 7.8 yards per attempt, and that's having played stunningly brilliant offenses like Maryland, NCCU, and Army. We may or may not be able to run the ball, but if we can't take advantage of their porous pass offense with the worst pass rush in the ACC, the game will stay way too close for comfort.

HOW WE CAN LOSE

- Let the game stay close by not doing any of the above. A good passing offense like Duke has is just the thing for breaking hearts with a really badly timed big play. Don't need any of that.

- Get outcoached. Look. Our players are better than their players, for the most part. But David Cutcliffe got tricks. He's a hell of an offensive mind and has quite a few players he can throw the ball to. Duke doesn't have a Torrey Smith or a C.J. Spiller for the defense to focus on, which strikes me as a dangerous combination with a coach who's known for being an offensive smart guy. The thing I worry about most about this game, besides our entire offense, is that Cutcliffe will be able to keep our defense guessing and off balance all game.

HOW THE GAME WILL GO

We'll win. I hate saying that, because it too often makes me look like a dumbass. But we're going to win this game, and there are two reasons. One, we're better on paper. Georgia Tech's defense looked deceptively bad because they'd played a bunch of good teams. Duke's looks bad and that's from games against Army and Maryland and such. Their running game is unbelievably atrocious. They likely won't hardly even bother, just come out passing the ball, and we have the best pass defense in the ACC, giving up just 5 yards per attempt. They're playing right into our strength.

Second, because win games like this is just the sort of thing we do. Duke has more wins than we do and it's making people think they're better and say crazy things. To the lay observer, it looks like an even-ish matchup between a couple pretty bad teams, and it's tempting to go with the one whose program doesn't look like it's hanging by a thread. No dice. This is UVA football, and we're going to win this game for the purpose of toying with the fans. Those whose primary desire is wanting Al Groh gone are going to enjoy the win** but be frustrated at the continuing possibility that Groh might extricate himself from this predicament yet again. Those who, like me, enjoy their blue and orange kool-aid, are going to be teased with the continuing possibility that we might just get into a bowl game despite having an offense that can't tell one end zone from the other. We win this game because UVA football exists for the purpose of driving its fans crazy.

**I hope there are none of you fuckers out there who root for us to lose because you want Groh gone or think things like "a loss is a win."

REST OF THE ACC

North Carolina at Virginia Tech, right now

NC State at Florida State, 12:00
Clemson vs. Coastal Carolina, 1:30
Miami at Wake Forest, 3:30
Boston College vs. Central Michigan, 3:30
Georgia Tech at Vanderbilt, 7:30

game preview: Georgia Tech

Date/Time: October 24, 12:00

TV: Raycom

Last matchup: UVA 24, GT 17 (Highlights!)

Last week: UVA 20, Md. 9; GT 28, VT 23

Line: Georgia Tech by 5.5

Opposing blogs: From The Rumble Seat

Injury report:

(I always forget to come back and post this once it's available. Let's see if I remember this week.)

This is the fun part. We're back at the table, and now we're playing with house money. Who really expects us to actually win this ACC thing? Nobody. Nobody thinks we're good enough. Fair enough: it's not like we've been beating good teams, really. Saturday's our first crack at that. Win, and we replace GT on the list of actual Coastal contenders. Lose, and we'll just do what we expected to do anyway, which is muddle toward a possible bowl game and probably, a new coach. A loss is not a win, but neither is it devastating. A win, on the other hand? Heady stuff.

HOW WE CAN WIN

- Obviously, it's all about stopping the triple option. We will be much better at that if the safeties can step up in run defense. Last week, the coaches showed all the confidence in the world in our cornerbacks as they left them in single coverage against Torrey Smith all game long. It worked. It needs to again. There's no doubt the coaches will again let the corners deal with the Tech wide receivers, particularly and obviously Demaryius Thomas, who is pretty much the only receiving threat on the outside. Thomas is an excellent receiver, but as long as the corners stay disciplined on play-fakes, there won't be any big plays and the safeties will be free to step way up and shut down the running lanes.

- The 3-4 is a little bit like the rock to Paul Johnson's scissors; it's a better scheme for defending this offense than a traditional 4-3. But it requires very smart, very disciplined linebacker play, particularly on the outside. Defending the option means taking care of your assignment and not running around like a fool.

- GT's defense is better the further away from the line of scrimmage you get. The less they're involved in the play, the better, so a simple, bread-and-butter offense with heavy doses of the screen pass and the shotgun handoff is the best game plan. Not so much the shotgun draw, however.

HOW WE CAN LOSE

- No amount of discipline from the back eight will prevent the Tech offense from grinding out the yardage if the defensive line can't hold the line of scrimmage. If we lose the battle in the trenches the way we did last week, Tech will do what they do best, which is to triple-option their way down the field six yards at a time. That's a devastating, morale-sucking way to lose.

- Pass-block the way we usually do. GT's defensive line has caused their defense as a whole to be pretty porous, but if we let that be a strength instead of a weakness, all bets are off. Pressure on Sewell will cause him to make silly decisions into the teeth of a very good secondary, and it's not going to end the same way it did on Burd's catch against Maryland.

- Bad tackling. This would be bad against anyone but especially problematic against Georgia Tech, whose corps of running backs has no problem running right over you if you. Corey Mosley still likes to hit without wrapping up, which might be part of the reason why he's not a starter anymore - if that's how we want to tackle this week, we lose.

HOW THE GAME WILL GO

Decorum requires I point out that Heather calls for the UVA win yet again. She deserves her props: she's called every game in our streak so far. Myself? No prediction here as far as a win or a loss. This game is strength on strength (their offense vs. our defense) and weakness on weakness (our offense vs. their defense.) That's tough to call. GT is the better team on paper, except as far as defense is concerned, and you know what they say about defense and championships and whatnot. What with that, and the ugly weather forecast, another low-scoring game is in the cards, and that favors us. That means the game will come down to another couple key plays, and who's to say that can't be us making them again?

REST OF THE ACC

Florida State at North Carolina, going on right now

Maryland at Duke, 1:30
Boston College at Notre Dame, 3:30
Clemson at Miami, 3:30
Wake Forest at Navy, 3:30

game preview: Maryland

Date/Time: October 17, 4:00

TV: ESPNUVA

Last matchup: UVA 31, Maryland 0. Highlights here! Also, 2007 highlights.

Last week: UVA 47, IU 7; WF 42, Md. 32

Line: UVA by 3.5

Opposing blogs: Testudo Times of the ACC Roundtable, Turtle Waxing

Injury report:

(coming soon)

There's never a good time to lose to Maryland. There are bad times to lose, and worse times. This would be one of the worst. If indeed we harbor any postseason hopes, this is not the kind of game we can afford to lose. And it's Maryland. The turtle must die a long and excruciating death. Just look at that damn thing: it's flashing you.

HOW WE CAN WIN

- Maryland has exactly one weapon on offense: Torrey Smith. We have a secondary of doom. If the secondary of doom shuts down Smith, good things will happen. Smith is but 6'1" - decent but not great size for a receiver - and our corners are 6'2". When the corners are as big as the receivers they're covering, that's advantage: defense. Unlike last week where it wasn't worth it to give up yards at the line of scrimmage against the opposing receivers, playing a little bit soft works to our advantage this time by allowing our corners to better use their size on the deep balls that Maryland probably will look for. If we limit Smith's effectiveness - he doesn't even have to be shut completely down, just limited - Maryland doesn't have the playmakers to make up for what we took away from Smith.

- The weak point of the Maryland offense is their inexperienced line that can neither pass-block nor run-block especially well. I'm all for generous use of the blitz here. Take their weakness and exploit it to no end - there's no reason to fear what Chris Turner might do on the run. He can move around a little in the pocket, but he can't break a big one and his decision-making outside the pocket is spotty at best and disastrous at worst. Dial up various confusing blitz packages just as we did against UNC and apply liberally.

- Pound the ball. By and large, you can run on Maryland. They've shown flashes of respectability, but amidst long stretches of incompetence. I would like to have Mikell Simpson back, but our O-line has the decided edge against their D-line in the run game and it won't matter if we have to lean on Rashawn Jackson and Torrey Mack instead. I'm not sold on any aspect of Maryland's defense, actually, but they're usually weaker against the run than the pass, and we're usually better at running the ball than passing it, so the matchup is obvious.

HOW WE CAN LOSE

- Turnovers, again. Being turnover-free has been a major, major reason why we're all of a sudden on a winning streak. On paper, this is a mismatch in our favor; the way you equalize mismatches is through turnovers. Don't do that.

- Fail to take advantage of opportunities. Another equalizer of mismatches. Upsets happen when the favored team turns the ball over and kicks field goals when they should be scoring touchdowns. And there will be opportunities: bad teams always give them to you. It might be a key turnover deep in their own territory. Might be a play we run intending to pick up 5 yards and we pick up 50. A killer instinct is huge on the road. Maryland is lousy, but if we let them hang around, they're good enough to take advantage of their own crowd; ask Clemson, who forced two turnovers (one on downs, one fumble) late in the fourth quarter, started those drives deep in Maryland territory, and came away completely empty-handed with two missed field goals. That's the blueprint for losing at Maryland.

- Give in to the ghosts of our past. This is what makes me nervous. Way more nervous than anything Torrey Smith can do to me. First, it's a road game. We all know our road game history. No need to go down that path. But these are rare circumstances for UVA. A situtation we don't often see: coming off a big, big win and going into a game against a team we're clearly better than. Not that it hasn't happened, but it's rare, and furthermore, we've responded poorly when it has. What do I mean? 2007: we came off a thrilling 18-17 win over these same Terrapins and went to Raleigh to visit 2-5 NC State. And lost. 2005: after a huge win over Florida State, we hocked up a 7-5 clunker of a loss to 2-3 UNC in Chapel Hill. How about 2002 when we were 6-2 thanks to that comeback from down three touchdowns against UNC, and laid an egg against 4-3 Georgia Tech in Atlanta the next game?

Way back in 2000, after our first season, a good friend of mine who I also went to high school with commented that we were the Detroit Lions of the ACC. This was before the Millen years, mind you: the Lions were a playoff team more or less every other year, and in the '90s, had a habit of winning big games, like against the Cowboys on Monday Night, and following up with a pathetic loss to teams like the Cardinals. How prescient that turned out to be. Through this decade we've made a living on winning games we weren't supposed to, and then, just when we were getting the respect that comes with that kind of success, we flub an easy one. I see every sign of that, right here and now. We've erased much of the bad press that goes with losing to W&M. We have a chance to jump into the ACC driver's seat. All we have to do is get past one of the worst teams in the conference. We need to do what good teams do, and that's treat bad teams like bad teams. We did that last week. Our past says, here's where we drop the ball. We can't let the ghosts into Byrd Stadium on Saturday.

HOW THE GAME WILL GO

Well, Heather says we win, but she foresees a close one. And despite the dire storm warnings of the above paragraph, I think we win too, and I don't think it'll be a close one. I'm really tempting the football gods here. I acknowledge this. But it shakes down like this: Their offense is bad. Our offense is bad. Their defense is bad. Our defense is studly. We rank near the top of the country in every meaningful defensive category. Maryland ranks near the bottom; in fact, second-worst only to Florida State (!) in the conference in just about every measurable. They have one really good receiver, one marginal one, a couple of marginal running backs, a terrible offensive line, and a terrible quarterback. There's no reason Maryland should score as many as the 17 points Heather offers up; in fact, there's no way they should be able to notch two scores of any kind, barring egregious mistakes by our own offense and special teams. On paper, we own this matchup. But the intangibles? Our history? Not on our side. If we lose, it means we came out flat. This team is not flat, or it shouldn't be - how do you get jacked up like crazy to beat Indiana and not the Twerps? This is Virginia. You can't. And they won't. I will play with fire here, and expect another big win out of our boys on Saturday.

REST OF THE ACC

Wake Forest at Clemson, 12:00
NC State at Boston College, 3:30
Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech, 6:00
Miami at Central Florida, 7:30

game preview: Indiana

Date/Time: October 10, 3:30 PM

TV: ESPN360, which isn't really TV

Last matchup: Never

Last week: UVA 16, UNC 3; OSU 33, IU 14

Line: UVA by 6.5 (!)

Opposing blogs: The Crimson Quarry

Injury report:

(coming tomorrow)

So I've spent all week trying to decide which angle to go with for this preview. Is this a toilet-bowl matchup of two assed-out teams trying to decide which one is going to miss bowl eligibility by a slimmer margin? Most of the rest of the country seems to think so, hence the relegation to ESPN360 among other indignities. Or maybe we're on our way to showing we're not that bad, and Indiana is the crap team they've been since forever and we should stomp them but good. Or maybe, heaven forbid, it's the other way round, although that last was never under consideration for use in this article. Anyway, I still haven't decided.

Regardless, though, this is a must-win. Maybe the mustest-win on the whole schedule. Maybe ever. In history. My reasons are a lot more selfish than "Al Groh's on the hot seat," mind you. See, I have this cousin. He's good people. And his college football fanhood followed much the same track as mine: grow up worshiping one team, then go to a different school and simply add that school to the pedestal. I grew up rooting for Michigan. My cousin? He grew up in Ohio. And he's the kind of guy who thinks a bottle opener that plays the OSU fight song when you open a bottle is the perfect Christmas gift for a Michigan fan. So you can imagine what holiday dinners have been like. We have been banned from discussing this subject at the dinner table. Literally. Shut up, we have been told. Car rides have been made miserable for other family members. And you might have guessed by now that my cousin is an Indiana grad. Which, of course my brother would go to Purdue so that these get-togethers would be just that much more interesting. Anyway, we have to win, otherwise Christmas is going to suck.

HOW WE CAN KEEP MY THANKSGIVING FROM BEING RUINED

- Press coverage from the cornerbacks. When airing it out, Indiana favors a dink-and-dunk passing attack that relies on a high completion percentage, and they throw primarily to wide receivers Tandon Doss and Damarlo Belcher. We have three excellent cornerbacks that have plenty of athleticism, and IU's offense is similar to UNC's in this respect, so there's no reason to lay off with soft coverage. Have Dowling, Cook, and Minnifield get up in their grill and take away the short game.

- Heavy doses of Mikell Simpson. Just like last week. Michigan gashed Indiana something fierce in the running game. Or, more specifically and correctly, Michigan's Carlos Brown gashed Indiana something fierce. Brown carried 11 times for 83 yards - a sparkling 7.5 ypc - and Michigan's running plays look a lot like ours did against UNC, as both are run out of the shotgun. (Michigan uses more zone read, but the end result, if it's a handoff, is the same.) And Carlos Brown and Simpson are very, very similar running backs. We can rack up some rushing yards the same way Michigan - and incidentally, Ohio State with Brandon Saine - did. I'd like to see a little more Torrey Mack too so that Simpson doesn't disintegrate in November, but regardless Simpson is a weapon we should lean on this Saturday.

- If the wide receivers could get open, that'd be sweet, so that Jameel Sewell doesn't have to dance aimlessly in the pocket and make previously unknown defensive ends look like superstuds.

HOW WE CAN MAKE SURE I GET AN INDIANA BOTTLE OPENER TO GO ALONG WITH MY OHIO STATE ONE

- Indiana has some reasonably frightful running backs and a pretty creative running game to the outside. If the outside linebackers have a subpar game, IU's Darius Willis has a sneaky second gear and a way of running away from people that results in long running plays.

- Frankly, IU's defense is pretty nondescript, but they're good enough to make bad teams have bad days. Western Michigan put up all of 22 rushing yards on them. But as implied above, they're also bad enough to let good teams have good days. So our performance is entirely on us, and Southern Miss aside, we have yet to reach the 20's in the points department. If we don't get any offense, we're in for a struggle no matter what the defense does, and yes, our offense is definitely bad enough to lose us this game.

- Turnovers. Notice what happened last week when we ceased handing free possessions to the other team. Are we actually through with that William & Mary, 7-turnover bullshit? Or are we just going to be a turnover-ridden team this year? This is a good game to find out, because the one turnover answer we do have is that the offense isn't going to rack up enough yardage to overcome stupid turnovers, so going forward, you can consider this a pretty standard item. Yes, "don't turn the ball over" is good advice for any team that wants to win a game, but it's more than good advice for us - it's an essential.

HOW THE GAME WILL GO

Well, ESPN's Heather picked us last week and we vindicated her, as she likes to remind you (hey, she was the only one. She's got bragging rights) and she's sticking with it this week. I feel obligated to mention it because there has to be some kind of good luck charm running around somewhere and this might very well be it. I haven't picked us to win since Week 1 and we all know how that turned out, but this week I'm joining Heather in the Go Us category. The defense, too, is starting to get a little ESPN-style love and they use some very sabermetricy numbers to bear that out, so it's not just blabbermouthing. Indiana is an unspectacular team that is good at several things but not really outstanding at anything. This is an improvement over the Indiana that everyone knows and loves to have for Homecoming so that the alums can enjoy a stress-free Saturday afternoon and write big checks to the football team, but I think we match up well against them. We're coming off a feel-good win, it's our own Homecoming, and Anthony Poindexter is getting his big day - the fans should be feeling a lot less mutinous than they were to start the TCU game. I think we'll win this game. It might actually be closer than the UNC game, and it will almost certainly be just as low-scoring. Our offense and defense are the worst and best units on the field, respectively, and I don't think either team will make the 20-point mark. But I think we'll get the win.

REST OF THE ACC

Boston College at Virginia Tech, 12:00
North Carolina vs. Georgia Southern, 3:30
Duke at NC State, 4:00
Maryland at Wake Forest, 6:30
Miami vs. Florida A&M, 7:00
Georgia Tech at Florida State, 8:00

game preview: North Carolina

Date/Time: October 3, 12:00

TV: Raycom

Last matchup: UVA 16, UNC 13 (Highlights!)

Last week: UVA off; GT 24, UNC 7

Line: UNC by 13

Opposing blogs: Tar Heel Fan, and ACC Roundtable member Tar Heel Mania

Injury report:

OUT: S Matt Leemhuis, RB Dominique Wallace

DOUBTFUL: none

QUESTIONABLE: QB Vic Hall, S Corey Mosley

PROBABLE: CB Chris Cook, NT Nick Jenkins, S Rodney McLeod, CB Chase Minnifield, RB Mikell Simpson

UNC season preview

Sweet. It's finally October, which means it's time to stop dicking around with the nonconference slate and time to start losing the games that really matter. And this is Carolina, so it really matters. I'm just happy the game's in Chapel Hill. I'll take my chances with the streak next season; this is not the ideal time to try and keep that going. Besides, there's a common thread to our post-bye-week struggles the past couple years: the games have been at home. This is a team that needs to focus on the game and not all the outside peripheral shit. That's best accomplished on the road.

One more reason to enjoy this game: It'll probably be the only one this year where we're the team ahead in the ACC standings.

HOW WE CAN WIN

- On defense, it all starts with the line. More so this week. Carolina hasn't been very good at keeping the pressure off of T.J. Yates. Getting some linemen in his face will be the thing to keep our suddenly-ailing secondary (did you see that damn injury report? I mean damn) from having to be the playmakers. Yates hasn't been too consistent this year either, and there's nothing like the close proximity of 280-pound bruisers with bad intentions to keep that pattern going. Moreover, Carolina's running game is a grinding, Big Ten-style attack. Stuffing it starts and ends with winning the battles in the trenches.

- More creative play-calling and new formations. We took a big lead on Southern Miss because they were thrown completely out-of-whack when we came out in formations and ran plays that looked nothing like the ones we'd run in the first two weeks. It's obvious by now we can't out-talent most of the defenses we'll face, least of all this one, so the coaches are going to have to coach their asses off and keep UNC off-balance.

- Take the time-of-possession battle to one extreme or the other. Look what Georgia Tech did in that regard. They just sucked the life out of UNC. Carolina is the closest thing to an old-school Big Ten team you'll see outside of that actual conference. They win with defense, they run the ball straight ahead, and they run when they want to and pass if they have to. How do you beat that kind of team? Either the Georgia Tech way, which is to run the ball 70 times and drain them of their will to live, or with demoralizing quick-strike big plays on offense, defense, and special teams.

HOW WE CAN LOSE

- Regress. In any area. This seems obvious, but here's the thing: We took some baby steps against USM, but we're clearly not good enough to do the two steps forward, one step backward thing and win. We have to do everything well that we've done well in the past. Everything.

- Let their receivers run apeshit. Yates is iffy sometimes, but his receivers - particularly Erik Highsmith - have proven dangerous. They're not deep there and you know exactly who the targets are going to be, but the battle between Highsmith and whoever's covering him - Dowling probably - is going to be what decides if UNC's offense is one-dimensional and stoppable, or not.

- Bring wax-paper Jameel Sewell on the trip instead of last-game-in-the-OB Jameel. If he doesn't have ice water in the veins, we lose.

HOW THE GAME WILL GO

Heather says we got this. So, uh, hmm. I'd dismiss that out of hand but Heather's proven a prophet regarding our season so far, her only real miss being the idea that Groh wouldn't be on the hot seat with a bad season. Which was wackity to begin with.

Still, I just can't see us breaking the post-bye-week jinx we've been under for a while. If I do say so myself, the Carolina season preview has been one of the most right-on I've written. Carolina is who I thought they were: a team with an inconsistent offense that would grind the ball and ride the ups and downs of T.J. Yates, and use their shutdown defense to stay in the game. They're one of just ten teams in the country to hold offenses to less than four yards per play. A defense like that at home is one of the best things a football team can have going for it. And going against our lame offense? Carolina's offense would have to really, really stink up the joint. A low-scoring affair is in the cards here, as with last year, but so is our fourth loss.

In this case though I sure wouldn't mind letting Heather get the better of me again in the prediction arena.

REST OF THE ACC

Virginia Tech @ Duke, 12:00
Clemson @ Maryland, 12:00
NC State @ Wake Forest, 3:30
Florida State @ Boston College, 3:30
Georgia Tech @ Mississippi State, 7:30
Miami vs. Oklahoma, 8:00

game preview: Southern Miss

Date/Time: September 19, 3:30 PM

TV: CBS College Sports

Last matchup: never

Last week: TCU 30, UVA 14; USM 26, UCF 19

Line: Southern Miss by 15.5

Opposing blogs: none

Injury report:

OUT: WR Bobby Smith

DOUBTFUL: QB Vic Hall

QUESTIONABLE: RB Mikell Simpson

PROBABLE: LB Denzel Burrell, OG B.J. Cabbell, DE Nate Collins, DE Matt Conrath, CB Chris Cook, NT John-Kevin Dolce, S Ausar Walcott

This is the season, right here. I can't say that any more clearly. Southern Miss is a decent team, but beatable, and by no means anything like the best team we'll see all season. If we're going to prove that we have a shot at a coveted spot in a Mobile bowl game, that week 1 was a fluke and week 2 was just because the opponent was among the cream of the crop, then we win here. Lose and we might as well start picking out replacements for Al Groh, not that everyone isn't doing so already. Lose and the season is a complete wash.

HOW WE CAN WIN

- Well, obviously, the offense needs to get fixed. We'll start with the playcalling. TCU played like they knew all our signals. This one's on the coaches - they need to figure out how to open up the playbook to make the offense less predictable. Throw downfield more, make better adjustments on the fly, and stop having such obvious patterns to the calls.

- Calling more downfield plays would not only prevent the eight-men-in-the-box strategy from being successful against both the run and pass, but if the receivers can't get open, at least there will be more scrambling room. When all the routes are inside ten yards they way they always seemed to be, the linebackers and cornerbacks are all right there to choke off all the options Sewell might have had, whether they be run or pass. Send people deep and clear out the edges so Sewell can get there in the event the pocket breaks down. Again.

- Sewell will have to trust his arm more. The receivers did a lousy job of getting open, true, but they also, when given the opportunity, flashed the ability to beat the defender to the ball. If Sewell puts it up there deep and it gets picked off, well, its the same as an early punt. If it's incomplete, it's certainly better than the sack we keep taking.

HOW WE CAN LOSE

- Just keep stayin' the course, fellas.

HOW THE GAME WILL GO

I ain't skeered by Southern Miss. I am skeered that it's a road game. You'll notice the above two sections make absolutely no mention of the opponent, their capabilities, players to focus on, etc. That's on purpose because it doesn't matter. Southern Miss is a generic opponent in a tin can as far as I'm concerned. The game is about UVA. We know this team has talent and potential, and they've put almost none of it on display. They need to fix the boogeyman, figure out what's wrong, and oh by the way, do it on the road where the ghosts of "Wyoming, 23-3" and, "UNC, 7-5" live. Just one more boogeyman to dispel. The game will hinge entirely on how the coaches and players respond to the tremendous pile of negativity that's built up around this program in the last ten days.

Al Groh-coached teams have shown an incredible amount of resiliency to strife and tribulations in the past. Never count that out. And yet, I can't shake the feeling that all the signs point to the end of a regime - the same warning signs that have been posted around dozens and dozens of teams over the decades - and I'm almost to the point where I'm ready for a new one. So neither end of the spectrum would surprise me here. We could lose or win by three touchdowns and neither result would make me bat an eyelash. No prediction of any kind from me this time. The deciding forces here have nothing to do with whether our offensive line can handle their blitz or whether their offensive coordinator has the right game plan for our 3-4. The forces at work here are beyond our purview, and we will see on Saturday afternoon whether the football gods will smile once again on Al Groh, or if they are busy ushering him into a quiet retirement.

REST OF THE ACC

Georgia Tech at Miami, 7:30, Thursday

North Carolina vs. East Carolina, 12:00
Boston College at Clemson, 12:00
Duke at Kansas, 12:00
Maryland vs. Middle Tennessee, 3:30
Virginia Tech vs. Nebraska, 3:30
NC State vs. Gardner-Webb, 6:00
Wake Forest vs. Elon, 6:30
Florida State at Brigham Young, 7:00

game preview: TCU

Date/Time: September 12, 3:30 PM

TV: ESPNUVA

Last matchup: UVA 20, TCU 10 (1994 Independence Bowl)

Last week: never happened. You hear me? That never happened!

Line: TCU by 11.5

TCU blogs: Mountain West Connection (actually it's an MWC-in-general blog but they had to pick a team affiliation to get into the Blogpoll and TCU was what they picked so whatever.)

Injury report:

OUT: CB Mike Parker, WR Bobby Smith

DOUBTFUL: QB Vic Hall, WR Dontrelle Inman, OT Lamar Milstead, LB Billy Schautz

QUESTIONABLE: None

PROBABLE: DE Nate Collins, WR Patch Duda, NT Nick Jenkins, QB Jameel Sewell, WR Matt Snyder, TE Joe Torchia

Vic Hall arrrggghhh. There'd been word of him getting banged up last week but it is not cool to see him listed as doubtful. You have to figure that Sewell will start given the (probably excessive) faith the coaches showed but also given that he's also on the injury report and, you know, the three interceptions, he'll be on a short leash and we'll see quite a bit of Marc Verica.

HOW WE CAN WIN:

- For the love of Christ and pizza, do not turn over the football seven times. Obviously.

- The tackles have to be excellent. TCU's Jerry Hughes is the nation's fourth-best draft-eligible DE according to the Coiffed One, Mel Kiper. He's got the potential to really blow up our offense even without our help.

- Stop turning over the football. I mean it.

- The linebackers need to continue to improve. For the most part, they did a good job containing W&M's ground game last week, but R.J. Archer hurt us on the ground. Now there's another running quarterback to deal with: TCU's Andy Dalton was their third-leading rusher last year and this is on a team with the rare quality of having had more rushing yards than passing yards. There's only three linemen and they can only do so much. It's on the linebackers to turn eight-yard scrambles into two-yard scrambles.

- I said stop turning over the damn football.

HOW WE CAN LOSE

- Do everything this week just like last week.

- Especially play offense. The passing was really, really bad, but the ground game was pathetic. Take away Hall's touchdown run and we averaged 2.5 yards a carry. We will get blown the hell up out of the water if we play offense like that, and TCU just so happens to have had the best defense in the country last year. They allowed 1.7 yards a carry. We absolutely will not score if Gregg Brandon can't figure something out. Big goose egg.

- That's really all there is to it. I'm a little worried about Dalton's ability to run, but their offense overall isn't world-beatingly scary. But our offense is, and not in the can-beat-you-so-many-ways sense. More like, Frankenstein-on-ecstasy scary.

HOW THE GAME WILL GO

Well, hell. I can't look much stupider than I did last week, can I? So what the heck, I think we keep this game close. Not to say we win, no. But we should be able to pull some kind of a lame-o moral victory out of this. The TCU defense is too strong and our offense has serious issues that go beyond the turnovers. And don't count out the Al Groh magic. It's not like he hasn't been here before. The guy knows a million different ways to infuriate the fan base, and a million and one ways to wiggle out of a tight spot. If we get blown out, which is eminently possible, that will be a bigger warning sign than last week was, because it'll be decisive proof that last week was no fluke. But a tight game, even if it's a loss, should give us reason enough to continue deluding ourselves that the ACC season still hasn't started and we still have enough time to turn it around and yadda yadda.

REST OF THE ACC

Clemson at Georgia Tech, going on right now

Wake Forest vs. Stanford, 12:00
Duke at Army, 12:00
North Carolina at Connecticut, 12:00
Virginia Tech vs. Marshall, 1:30
Boston College vs. Kent State, 2:00
NC State vs. Murray State, 6:00
Maryland vs. James Madison, 6:00
Florida State vs. Jacksonville State, 6:00

game preview: William & Mary

Date/Time: September 5; 6:00 PM

TV: Your computer

Last matchup: UVA 40, W&M 16 (1995)

Team records: UVA 0-0 (0-0), W&M 0-0 (0-0)

Last week: was not football season just yet

Line: none

W&M blogs: none that I know of

Injury report:

OUT: WR Dontrelle Inman, OT Lamar Milstead, CB Mike Parker, LB Billy Schautz, WR Bobby Smith

DOUBTFUL: None

QUESTIONABLE: FB Rashawn Jackson

PROBABLE: WR Quintin Hunter, RB Max Milien, RB Mikell Simpson, TE Joe Torchia

ZOIKS omg omg omg IT'S FOOTBALL SEASON. Someone forgot to let NC State know, and I'm not sure Oregon got the memo either. Given our history in openers the past few years, one can only hope we don't also play a game that competes with Snuggie ads for quality.

HOW WE CAN WIN

- Just play. There shouldn't be a position on the field where we don't have the superior talent. Not that there aren't a lot of ways we can screw this up, but this is one game where if we just take care of the fundamentals and the football, the rest will take care of itself.

- No, really. That's all there is to it, or should be. W&M is breaking in a new quarterback. NC State beat them pretty badly last year - the score looked close but the game was not. Harrison Beck shredded them. He was 17 for 25 and threw a pair of touchdowns. This is the same guy who checked in for the rest of the season with a 31% completion rate and 6 picks to go along with no touchdowns at all. You can throw on these guys, and I really doubt they'll be able to do the same to us.

HOW WE CAN LOSE

- There isn't a single matchup that they can exploit on us. Then again, Wyoming looked like a pretty good warm-up opponent too. All we have to do to lose is come in with whatever wack mindset we opened up the last three seasons with.

HOW THE GAME WILL GO

Despite our recent history of 1) playing like baked ass on opening day and 2) playing like baked ass against I-AA opponents, I feel pretty comfortable out on this limb here calling for a pretty big win. William & Mary is no Richmond. William & Mary does happen to be ranked in I-AA at the moment, but Richmond went on from our game to win a national championship. I'm not saying it's inconceivable we lose, but it just.....shouldn't happen. I shudder to think if it does.

REST OF THE ACC

We're not the only ACC team opening up with a I-AA opponent. Four other teams will, too.

South Carolina 7, NC State 3 - Thursday

Georgia Tech vs. Jacksonville State, 1:00
Boston College vs. Northeastern, 2:00
Wake Forest vs. Baylor, 3:30
North Carolina vs. The Citadel, 6:00
Clemson vs. Middle Tennessee, 6:00
Duke vs. Richmond, 7:00
Virginia Tech vs. Alabama, 8:00
Maryland @ California, 10:00

Miami vs. Florida State, 8:00

game preview: Boston College

#11 Virginia (10-17, 4-12) vs. #6 Boston College (21-10, 9-7)

Possible starters:

UVA:

PG - Sammy Zeglinski (8.0 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 3.1 apg)
SG - Calvin Baker (8.6 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 2.7 apg)
SF - Sylven Landesberg (16.8 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 2.7 apg)
PF - Mike Scott (10.5 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 0.8 apg)
C - Assane Sene (2.7 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.6 bpg)

BC:

PG - Tyrese Rice (17.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 5.4 apg)
SG - Rakim Sanders (12.8 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1.6 apg)
SF - Corey Raji (9.8 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 1.6 apg)
PF - Joe Trapani (13.6 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 1.5 apg)
C - Josh Southern (5.8 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 0.8 apg)

Part of the reason I've blown off writing a couple of these game previews is because trying to guess at who's going to be in our starting lineup is a complete waste of time. Not only because one is likely to be wrong by at least two, if not three or four, but starting sometimes means you get to play the first couple minutes then glue your ass to the bench for the next 38. All but two of the players on our roster (John Brandenburg and Will Sherrill are the unlucky two) have started at least one game, which is the smallest number since I don't know when because online records don't go back far enough.

Perfect case in point is the last time we played Boston College. The starting five were Tucker, Scott, Landesberg, Zeglinski, and Diane. Diane played four minutes, and the lineup for the second half consisted of Landesberg and four guys from the bench. Landesberg wound up scoring 32 points, mainly because most of the guys who can score were on the bench and if he hadn't, nobody would have because Jeff Jones was par for the course at 2-for-11 and Solomon Tat is Solomon Tat.

With nothing at stake I really don't expect Leitao to change this attitude he's had all season, which has been to treat playing time as a carrot-and-stick incentive system to play his way. What I'd like to see is for Leitao to identify who are the guys we need to rely on going forward and throw them to the wolves. Tat is a hustling kind of guy but Lord help us if next season he's played anywhere near the minutes he's had this season. Now is the perfect time for our freshmen to get a taste of ACC tournament play and make all the mistakes their freshman selves are capable of, while nobody's expecting anything out of them anyway.

This isn't to say BC is so good it doesn't matter. Quite the contrary, actually - BC is prone to playing a stinker of a game, as we saw in their season finale. Turns out triple-teaming Tyrese Rice is a perfectly workable defensive tactic. The point is, two years from now Sylven Landesberg will be a junior (hopefully) and Assane Sene will also be a junior, and Mike Scott will be a senior and a captain, and with any kind of good luck at all we'll be settling in for a first-round bye in the ACC tournament and playing for seeding in the NCAA's, if not an ACC championship, and this is precisely the game which the future stars of this program will need plenty of experience in if they're going to play the part of battle-hardened veterans leading the team to the kind of success we think we're supposed to have. It'd be different if this was the old 9-team ACC, and we were the patsy 7-seed going up against some juggernaut of a second-seed. I don't think you gain much experience by being the floorwipe. This is the very definition of a game we're supposed to lose but can win, and either way there's great value in it.

As for the game itself, if nothing else inbounding plays will be interesting as I mentioned earlier. BC looked suspiciously like we did all the while they were stumbling through a last-second win over GT. The tricky part though is that BC has discovered they have the supporting cast that nobody expected them to when preseason awards were being handed out. It wasn't superstud Tyrese Rice hitting the game-winning fallaway, it was backcourt-mate Rakim Sanders, and darn if Sanders hasn't become quite a complement to Rice. Instead of being the Tyrese Rice show and no frontcourt, BC turned out to have a pretty solid, well-rounded lineup capable of getting scoring from nearly anyone on the court and picking up the slack when teammates are having a bad game. The best way to beat them is to force them into shooting a lot of threes, because they're not good at it, but for us that's easier said than done because we don't have enough good bigs to counter theirs; and while our on-ball defense is pretty solid for the most part, we don't get the chance to use it as much because our shooting is so bad we give up all sorts of transition buckets.

So winning's a tall order, but fans should keep in mind, the main value of this game is whether or not it helps our players down the road. Leitao will coach to win, of course, but I'd like to see his substitution patterns give a thought to the future, not the present. The present doesn't matter any more.

game preview: Miami

So the lax team went out and did its thing again last night. After peppering Stony Brook with 62 shots, Mt. St. Mary's got the same treatment as the team racked up another 60. Garrett Billings, fresh off a record-tying goal-scoring performance at Stony Brook, didn't score at all and took only four shots. Chad Gaudet won 11 of 16 faceoffs, which is pretty excellent stuff, but like I said earlier, I'll get excited after I see how we do at Syracuse. That should be a great game and I'm looking forward to watching it and....oh. Right - it's not televised. Well, that's awesome. When I turn my TV to channel 134 on Friday night, Siena vs. Niagara will be on. I know its basketball season, and it's great to give a little exposure to a team like Siena which is quietly having a fine season, but what does ESPNU exist for if not to broadcast the marquee matchup of the year of the #1 and #2 teams in what is arguably the East Coast's most popular non-revenue sport?

Preview time, anyway. Basketball, that is.

Virginia Cavaliers (9-14, 3-9) vs. Miami Hurricanes (16-10, 5-8)

Possible starting lineups:

UVA:

PG: Sammy Zeglinski (9.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 3.5 apg)
SG: Calvin Baker (7.8 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 2.6 apg)
SF: Sylven Landesberg (18.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 2.9 apg)
F: Solomon Tat (0.8 ppg, 1.0 rpg, 0.3 apg - but mad hustle, yo)
C: Assane Sene (2.9 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 1.7 bpg)

Miami:

G: Jack McClinton (20.1 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 3.0 apg)
G: James Dews (8.5 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 1.3 apg)
F: Brian Asbury (7.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.3 apg)
F: Dwayne Collins (11.0 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 1.5 apg)
C: Jimmy Graham (3.7 ppg, 6.1 apg, 0.6 apg)

Hope we like the number 11, because we're just about locked into that seed for the ACC tournament. Georgia Tech isn't going to run the table, and we're not bloody likely to overtake Miami or NC State, even with a win tomorrow night. For now, that means an opening-round game against Boston College.

Anyway, you and I both know about Dave Leitao's wackity rotations, with rhyme and reason not always clear. If he wants to continue baffling UVA fans and changing things up, this would be a great time to reinsert Jerome Meyinsse. You remember him - he got minutes all the way up until the BC game (the no-subs-in-the-second-half one) and inexplicably played 20+ in a few games without much indication as to why. Since then he hasn't sniffed the court.

Miami, however, has a whole bunch of guys that measure up between 6'7" and 6'9" and weigh 230 pounds or more. More so than most teams, and certainly more than us. Lord only knows how many minutes Mike Scott is going to get from game to game - he hasn't been in the starting lineup lately - and Jamil Tucker is 6'8" 240 and plays like he's 6'3" 215. We tried the small-and-quick thing against NC State's bigger guys and it failed miserably. We're gonna get run over by Miami's bigs - Graham, McGowan, Collins, Thomas, Asbury - if we can't run out some size of our own. Given the matchups, Meyinsse would be a good candidate to get some of these minutes that have been going to Solomon Tat lately.

The other problem we're going to have is Jack McClinton, who leads the league in threes made and shoots them at almost 48%. Of late we've done a good job at limiting our own three attempts, which is nice because we suck at shooting them. What concerns me is that when you combine a hot hand for the opponent, and a bunch of big guys defending that don't let you into the lane, the temptation is to launch away and hope for the best. Bottom line: I don't like the way we match up with these guys, and I think the best chance we have is to press, turn defense into transition offense, and generally run the floor and try to do everything faster than they do. Because we're going to get killed if it turns into a halfcourt game.

game preview: NC State

Tomorrow is the basketball game against NC State; tonight, however, is Day 3 of the women's swimming finals. After two days of events (really, one full day of events) our girls have opened up a 72-point gap on the rest of the pack. This is what in swimming is known as a commanding lead, most especially since in each of tonight's seven event finals, we have no fewer than two swimmers, and sometimes three and four, in each of the championship heats. What this means is that even if a limb or two falls off in the pool, we can earn no fewer than 23 points per event. In most cases this will be more in the 40s range. If you live in the DC area and have no plans tomorrow, watching UVA be crowned ACC champs without paying a cent is a fine way to spend an evening. I will be encouraging this next week too.

Virginia Cavaliers (9-13, 3-8) at North Carolina State Wolfpack (14-10, 4-7)

Possible starting lineups:

UVA

PG: Sammy Zeglinski (9.4 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 3.6 apg)
SG: Calvin Baker (7.6 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 2.5 apg)
SF: Sylven Landesberg (18.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 2.8 apg)
PF: Mike Scott (10.7 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 0.8 apg)
C: Assane Sene (3.0 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 1.7 bpg)

NC State:

PG: Javier Gonzalez (5.5 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 3.1 apg)
SG: Courtney Fells (12.0 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.5 apg)
SF: Brandon Costner (14.9 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 2.3 apg)
PF: Tracy Smith (9.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 0.6 apg)
C: Ben McCauley (12.5 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 2.0 apg)

It's great to get a couple of big wins in a comfortable setting on your friendly home court. It's quite another to keep the momentum on the road. Saturday, we'll see if the happy times are for real or just a teaser in an otherwise extremely forgettable season.

Up next is NC State, and frankly, no moral victories allowed here. The 'Pack are not statistically a terrible team, but they - like us - are not good at turning their defense into easy offense, and like us, are regularly outshot. When they do shoot, they shoot well and tend to prefer an inside game to bombing away from three-land. One thing they do excel at is staying out of foul trouble. No ACC team has fewer fouls per game than their 15.5, a number which means they spend very little time with the other team in the bonus.

That said, they play with the inconsistency that's the hallmark of a bad team. They played Marquette tough and knocked off Wake Forest, but damn near lost to 11-17 Loyola of Maryland and got blown out of the building by UNC and BC. This isn't unique or a surprise, it's just the way life is for the ACC's second division. What it does mean is that finally, I feel like whether we win or lose depends as much on the opponent as us. Back when we were treating first halves like a game of tiddlywinks, it didn't matter whether the opponent was wearing maroon or baby blue, the song remained the same. Until we got that figured out, your local team from the Y was going to have an 18-point halftime lead. But now, we've got an eminently beatable opponent with a few inconsistency problems of their own. Which is why I say, no moral victories tomorrow, not even on the road. Not that we should beat this team, but we should beat them if we expect to be able to claim to have salvaged the last part of the season.

game preview: Virginia Tech

Virginia Cavaliers (8-13, 2-8) vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (16-8, 6-4)

Possible starters:

UVA

PG: Sammy Zeglinski (9.7 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 3.5 apg)
SG: Calvin Baker (7.5 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 2.5 apg)
SF: Sylven Landesberg (18.0 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 2.6 apg)
PF: Mike Scott (10.8 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 0.8 apg)
C: Assane Sene (2.9 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 1.7 bpg)

VT

PG: Malcolm Delaney (18.6 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 3.6 apg)
SG: Dorenzo Hudson (3.7 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 1.2 apg)
SF: A.D. Vassallo (18.4 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 2.8 apg)
PF: Victor Davila (3.7 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 0.2 apg)
C: Cheick Diakite (3.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 1.3 bpg)

I say Jeff Allen wasted his suspension. As you probably know, he won't be playing in tomorrow night's game at the JPJA, because of this. In fairness to Mr. Allen, if ever a fanbase deserved to be flipped off, it is indeed Maryland's. That being said, flip it like you mean it, Jeff! That's the bird you use to tell your lazy and equally drunk roommate to fuck off and get his own goddamn PBR, not the one for showing your contempt for an arena full of hostile fans.

Regardless, mission accomplished: fully 20% of Tech's scoring will be in street clothes on Wednesday. Plus, like, all of their rebounding: VT is already 10th of 12 in the league in that department and Allen pulls down almost 9 a game. Of the three musketeers that Tech relies on almost entirely, Allen has the fewest points per game, but he leads the team in myriad other stats besides just rebounding: steals, blocks, field goal %, etc.

So, a big blow to their hopes for winning. Which is nice, because our guys ought to be coming in on a season-high in confidence levels after pulling off a win against a ranked team. Dear Old UVA has a big I-told-you-so for you following the Clemson win, and I'm happy to be told so. So now is our chance to build. Tech will be vulnerable tomorrow.

Not that we can just show up motivated, pass the ball to Mike Scott a lot so he can abuse whichever not-Allen scrub is guarding him all night, and expect to win. Tech has to know this is their last chance at playing an ACC bottom-feeder. After this it's all winning teams, either ones who've pretty much stamped their ticket to the Dance or ones trying just as hard to. It's not inconceivable that a loss here could send them into a death spiral for the rest of the season. Players aren't supposed to look ahead, but they surely know what their schedule says: Clemson, Duke, and UNC sandwiched by fellow bubble resident TFSU. That kind of pressure - the kind that demands you win in a hostile gym against a team you're supposed to beat - can work either way. Seth Greenberg is not a chump, however, and the smart money says he'll have his team ready. The typical wisdom about winning in a hostile road environment says you need to weather the initial emotional storm and then once the crowd settles down, you can settle down too and just play the game. We need to turn that around. We're still not the most talented and experienced team, and getting into a slugging match with A.D. Vassallo raining threes is going to end badly. Our best shot is to punch them in the mouth - hard - in the first five minutes of the game. Feed off a big block or a steal. If there's a breakaway opportunity, don't just lay it up, slam it home with authority. Coach Leitao should draw up an alley-oop play. We're not going to win if we just expect them to be a worse team without one of their stars, we're going to need to play with that edge that's only recently found its way into the first half of our games.

game preview: Florida State

Two quick items before the main thing.

First is that the mystery of who will fill out the last slot in the schedule has been solved. The ACC still has yet to release the full schedule, but at least we have the 12th opponent: Indiana. The Hoosiers will visit on October 10, and we'll return the favor and trip to Bloomington in September, 2011. We've never played IU in football before. My initial gut reaction? Excellent news: IU has a notoriously shitty defense.

Second is an interesting little blurb out of the mouth of Jon Gruden, recently fired from the Buccaneers:

"I want to go to Al Groh's camp in Virginia. I love the way Al Groh coaches that football team."

Gruden has time on his hands, so he's interviewing about what he's going to do with it all. I wish I wish I wish Gruden had elaborated, but I somehow doubt the media-types will ignore the chance for some sound bites if/when Gruden pokes his head into camp. So we'll likely forget all about this quote until Gruden does visit, at which point we may hear something interesting. Groh and Gruden are kindred souls in that they speak their own rather entertaining dialect of coachspeak and are good for a quote when they feel like giving one.

OK - Florida State. Wait, no: The ... Florida State University. (It's silly when Ohio State does it - it's downright stupid and comical when nouveau-riche goons like FSU parrot it to try to add some sorely lacking cachet to a renegade program.)

Virginia Cavaliers (7-12, 1-7) at Florida State Seminoles (18-5, 5-3)

Possible starting lineups:

UVA:

PG: Sammy Zeglinski (9.5 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 3.4 apg)
SG: Calvin Baker (7.6 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.6 apg)
SF: Sylven Landesberg (17.9 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 2.6 apg)
PF: Mike Scott (10.5 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 0.7 apg)
C: Assane Sene (3.2 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1.9 bpg)

FSU:

PG: Toney Douglas (20.3 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.6 apg)
SG: Chris Singleton (8.4 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 1.1 apg)
SF: Jordan DeMercy (3.7 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 2.0 apg)
PF: Ryan Reid (5.9 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 0.8 apg)
C: Solomon Alabi (7.8 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 0.2 apg)

I was having a really tough time motivating myself to write this. I'm pretty sure I'm coming down with a cold, and I don't know right know whether it's getting worse or better or if the Tylenol I took is going to help. Sounds kind of like our season right now - hey, an "angle"! That's what sportswriters are always looking for, right? Thus, my problem was solved.

Just like how tomorrow I'll find out if I'm actually sick, or just tired, I think tomorrow will be a big indicator for the rest of the season. If we get blown the hell up out of the water again, I can't see us winning any more games, period. But we put up a fight against UNC, and even though the talent gap won out, the same ol'-same ol' cycle was broken. We have a chance here to finally break the losing streak, or at least, play a game that helps to restore our confidence.

FSU is just the kind of team we need for that. They have a good record and they're a bubble team for the tournament. They're getting noticed, too: ranked in both polls. I don't think they'll go to the Dance, though. They have plenty of weaknesses, the biggest being turnovers. At 299th in the country in turnovers per game, they're occupying the same territory as powerhouses like High Point (6-17) and Yale (8-12). Not only that, but FSU tends to be even more of a one-man show than we are. Toney Douglas is carrying that team, and hasn't failed to score at least 20 points in a game for a month. If we play the kind of tenacious defense we're capable of playing when fired up to do so, the other guys on that team won't be up to the task of helping Douglas out. Every time he's taken more than 20 shots in a game, FSU has lost, and as with our team last year, it seems easier to take the whole rest of the team out of the game than the one star.

So I really think this is our last chance to salvage anything at all from the season. Win this one, or even put up enough of a fight, and I see enough winnable games on the schedule to claw out of the bottom two, which is nice because it means not playing Duke or UNC in the opening round of the ACC tournament. Revert to the same ol', and there's no reason to expect even one more win the rest of the way.

game preview: Boston College

Tomorrow's D-Day in the football world, so what better way to celebrate than with a basketball post?

First, here's what to expect on these pages tomorrow. As you know, 1 PM is H-hour, and barring any craziness, it's the only major announcement that Wahoos are waiting for. I'll likely post a short blurb, whatever the choice. Otherwise, posting will be determined by events and how often the boss walks past my office door. Don't expect to burn out your F5 key here - up-to-the-minute updates are best found at TheSabre or Rivals or one of those sites where people have Al Groh's cell phone number on speed dial. In the afternoon/evening I'll post my thoughts on the day's events.

Also going on tomorrow is a basketball game. Which we'll probably lose.

Virginia Cavaliers (7-10, 1-5) vs. Boston College Eagles (17-6, 5-3)

Possible starting lineups:

UVA:

PG: Sammy Zeglinski (9.8 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 3.6 apg)
SG: Calvin Baker (7.9 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 2.6 apg)
SF: Sylven Landesberg (17.2 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 2.4 apg)
PF: Mike Scott (11.2 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 0.7 apg)
C: Assane Sene (3.3 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 1.9 bpg)

(It's kind of silly listing how many assists Sene gets. That's not what he's on the court for. It's very cool, however, that he's tied for third in the conference in blocks per game.)

BC:

PG: Tyrese Rice (17.9 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 5.7 apg)
SG: Rakim Sanders (12.2 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.6 apg)
SF: Corey Raji (10.9 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 1.8 apg)
PF: Joe Trapani (13.7 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 1.7 apg)
C: Josh Southern (5.7 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 0.7 apg)

I could just plagiarize the Duke game prediction from below. I mean, this game isn't likely to go any different. In the interest of living by the honor code, I do at least have a couple other thoughts about this game.

BC, you see, was supposed to stink. Going into the season, they looked like a one-man show of Tyrese Rice and a bunch of no-loads. Instead, they upended UNC and then, after an ugly losing streak brought on by a loss to Harvard, they righted the ship and now have all the makings of at least a tourney bubble team.

The scouting report used to be, stop Rice and you stop BC. Last season, Rice averaged over 38 minutes a game. He basically never left the floor. This year, Joe Trapani has done a remarkable job taking over for - and being way better than - the departed, disgruntled Shamari Spears. The rest of the starting lineup has also picked up some slack, allowing Rice the luxury of occasionally taking a break.

These days, though, it's hardly worth scouting the opponent. Until we fix what's broken with our offense, we're not going to win a single game. Period. We're averaging 73 points a game, which isn't completely awful, but take away that VMI game in which you're forced to score a bucketload win or lose, and we drop from 7th to 11th in the conference. I don't know how to fix the offense, but a moratorium on threes would be a great start. Better to have a shot-clock violation and have the opposition take the ball out of bounds than to give up the long rebound after the inevitable miss and allow a transition opportunity. Our 3-point percentage is pathetic, and Curtis Staples isn't walking through that door. The last two games have been a good step in that direction - much better than the 27 we jacked up against UNC - and maybe it's resulting in more turnovers since they're getting the idea that they can't be bailed out by the three, but hey, it's a learning process.

So I dunno....honestly, I don't expect anything different out of this game than the last few. Lousy first half, respectable second half, and the worries about Dave Leitao's offense will grow steadily louder.

game preview: DOOM

Virginia Cavaliers (7-9, 1-4) at Duke Blue Devils (18-2, 5-1)

Possible starters:

UVA

PG: Sammy Zeglinski (9.9 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 3.5 apg)
SG: Calvin Baker (8.2 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.7 apg)
SF: Sylven Landesberg (17.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 2.5 apg)
PF: Mike Scott (11.3 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 0.8 apg)
C: Assane Sene (3.3 ppg, 5.5 ppg, 0.5 apg)

Duke

PG: Nolan Smith (10.0 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 1.9 apg)
SG: Jon Scheyer (13.2 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 2.7 apg)
SF: Gerald Henderson (14.8 ppg, 5.1 apg, 2.1 apg)
PF: Kyle Singler (16.8 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 2.9 apg)
C: Brian Zoubek (6.1 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 0.7 apg)

Oh goody.

The only team in the conference with a losing record on the season takes three freshmen in the starting lineup to visit the #1 team in the nation in the loudest, nastiest arena in the country just after the host team loses a squeaker for their first conference loss of the season.

If that doesn't sound like the storyline for a game where the margin of victory would come as no surprise no matter how massive, then there will never be another blowout again in the history of basketball. 30? 40? 50? Would it surprise you if we lost 90-20? Me neither.

As much as we all like seeing Duke knocked down a peg by losing at Wake Forest this week, it probably only served to motivate them. Last time Duke lost, they had finals week to stew over it, then blasted UNC-Asheville by 43 points, their largest margin of victory all year. Yeah, OK, that was a mid-major team, and do you think that really matters? Lest you forget, the two guys who will handle the ball the most for us - Zeglinski and Landesberg - are playing their first game in front of the Cameron Crazies. None of this bodes well.

Here's what'll happen: someone for us will have a decent game. We'll get some points from somewhere - mostly in the second half when Duke lets off the gas. Problem is, you never know who's going to have a good game from one to the next. Maybe Zeglinski shoots 2 for 13 but Tucker gets 14 points. Maybe Zeglinski passes up the shots to Baker who misses all of them, but Farrakhan finds his range from three-land. A game following eight games of practice would normally be a great time to put it all together, but the scheduling gods decided what a funny joke it would be to have the least winnable game possible at the end of that stretch. If this was a home game against, say, Georgia Tech or NC State, I might be pretty confident about this. Instead we've spent this last week stewing over the blowouts at either end of it.

game preview: Maryland

Official visit-weekend has come and gone without the lightning strike commitment from Morgan Moses we'd all been hoping for. But the visit went well, he liked the coaches and the team, felt like he fit in, yadda yadda insert happy-about-visit talk here. The usual stuff. I do think Moses will commit to UVA. I hope that's not just me being a homer. Nolan MacMillan, on the other hand, I think is probably going to Iowa. MacMillan's a very good prospect and he's got to be intrigued by the Canadian connection we seem to be developing but I think even without Moses we'd be OK on the OL for this class.

Bigger things are on tap for tomorrow, though. CPCC (College Park Community College) is tomorrow's basketball opponent, so it's time to crank out one 'a these:

Virginia Cavaliers (7-7, 1-2) at Maryland Terrapins (12-5, 1-2)

Possible starters:

UVA:

PG: Sammy Zeglinski (10.8 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 3.9 apg)
SG: Calvin Baker (7.8 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.6 apg)
SF: Sylven Landesberg (17.3 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 2.5 apg)
PF: Mike Scott (11.6 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 0.8 apg)
C: Assane Sene (3.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 0.6 apg)

Md.:

PG: Greivis Vazquez (17.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 4.9 apg)
G: Eric Hayes (9.9 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 3.2 apg)
G: Adrian Bowie (10.6 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 2.7 apg)
F: Landon Milbourne (12.3 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 0.7 apg)
F: Dave Neal (7.6 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 0.9 apg)

Whatever the Maryland football team was on that caused them to occasionally skip games and send in the cardboard cutouts instead, they apparently had some left over and sent it down to the basketball team. Who gobbled it with relish, leading to crazy results like, "Morgan State 66, Maryland 65." Maryland is the very definition of a bubble team, with enough talent to earn decisive wins over Michigan and Michigan State but capable of rolling over and dying against damn near anyone.

Such is the fate of a donut team like Maryland. They have a low shooting percentage because they don't get a lot of post buckets. They were hoping that Braxton Dupree would give them the interior presence they lost when Gist and Osby departed, but Dupree has seen his minutes go pffffffttt and he hasn't scored a single point in 2009. The closest thing they have to a center is Dave Neal, but he's 6'7", and besides that still kind of growing into the role of a starter - he's not used to the kind of minutes he's been getting.

I expect a HUGE game from Mike Scott. Maryland isn't a particularly impressive rebounding team - when your point guard is your leading rebounder, that's a good indication. They're not a bad rebounding team either, mind you, but they're prone to getting completely whupped on the glass. Scott is likely to be matched up against Landon Milbourne (if we don't go heavy on the zone against a jump-shooting team, that is) and Scott has 30 pounds on him. I expect Milbourne to also be guarding Scott, unless they want to try Milbourne on Sene instead, in which case we might very well see more than the typical bucket-and-a-half from the 7-footer.

So I like how we match up down low, but if we didn't learn any lessons from the UNC game and hoist threes until the elbows fall off, we'll neutralize our one advantage. Jump-shooting teams like Maryland are best when they can supplement their half-court offense with a lot of transition buckets. The more we can force Maryland to play in the half-court, the better our chances of catching them on a bad shooting night. That means I don't want to see one player taking 15 three-pointers in one game. Come to think of it I really don't want to see that ever, not with this team, but even less so against a hated rival that we have a really good shot at stealing a win from.

game preview: North Carolina

So we can all take a big deep breath and a sigh of relief that Sylven Landesberg isn't running around on crutches this week. Kinda scary, that fall he took against Tech, no? I suppose that's what happens when the refs let you shove an opponent to the ground in order to get a steal. I can't be the only one who thought that, right? Here's hoping the game tomorrow is reffed better than Saturday's.

Virginia Cavaliers (7-6, 1-1) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (14-2, 0-2)

Possible starters:

UVA:

PG: Sammy Zeglinski (11.4 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 4.2 apg)
SG: Calvin Baker (7.5 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 2.7 apg)
SF: Sylven Landesberg (18.5 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 2.6 apg)
PF: Mike Scott (11.7 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 0.8 apg)
C: Assane Sene (3.7 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 0.7 apg)

UNC:

PG: Ty Lawson (14.8 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 6.4 apg)
SG: Wayne Ellington (12.8 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 2.3 apg)
SF: Danny Green (13.3 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 2.9 apg)
PF: Deon Thompson (13.1 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 0.6 apg)
C: Tyler Hansbrough (22.4 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 0.8 apg)

In the season preview for UNC I gushed pretty effusively about the Heels. It seems justified, what with them having all five starters in double digit scoring. But now, they're coming in to the JPJ tomorrow as basement fodder.

Yeah, don't get your hopes up though. Lightning doesn't strike twice - and no, going on the road to visit a very good Wake Forest team without your best defensive stopper and losing by three doesn't count as a lightning strike. BC, that was a lightning strike.

The one real glimmer of hope here is that they'll again be without Marcus Ginyard, their representative on last year's All-ACC defensive team. So Sylven Landesberg gets the chance to go up against the inexperienced.....uh, senior Danny Green instead. See what I mean? Friggin' team is loaded. Nevertheless, Heel fans are worried that someone is going to go off on them tomorrow night. OK, not that worried.

Here's what's gonna happen. Psycho T is gonna have a damn field day. Finally, he gets to go against a Virginia team without Lars Mikalauskas chopping him down at every chance. No doubt he will appreciate the chance to welcome the rookie Sene to the league. Sene already averages 3.6 fouls a game and isn't likely to improve on that if he has to guard Hansbrough all night - my guess is Leitao will send a steady stream of rotating players in to try and spread the fouls around. Meyinsse and Soroye will probably see more minutes than usual, either out of necessity or out of choice.

And to continue this sunny day of a post, I'm also not getting too excited about Mustapha Farrakhan's explosion in the waning moments of Saturday's game. Everyone has days on the court where for whatever reason they can't miss. Hell, I have days on the court where I can't miss (I remember both of them), and I'm 5'7" and shoot like a Tyrannosaurus with a knee problem. Sometimes it just happens. Mu's been a pretty good three-ball shooter all year, and the guy should be getting more minutes than he's been getting, but I want to see what he does in those extended minutes (if he gets 'em) before I start comparing him to J.J. "Damn It Not Again Why Do We Leave Him Open" Redick.

So, yeah, North Carolina. I'll be happy if we can stay within 15 of these guys, frankly. Three freshmen against a starting lineup full of ridiculously talented seniors that would be pissed if they "only" made the Final Four is a recipe for disaster. The common denominator between the BC and Wake losses was that both teams have a player capable of nuclear destruction - Tyrese Rice and Jeff Teague, respectively. We have that too, but the other common denominator is this: they had help. BC's Rakim Sanders had 22 points, and Wake's Chas McFarland shot 7-for-10 on his way to 20. Scott and Zeglinski are fine players and improving each game, but I don't see them as capable yet of scaring a team like UNC to the point where they're afraid to focus on Landesberg. No bold, out-on-a-limb predictions from me: expect a slaughter.