To be clear, that's "Cavaliers that are now rookies in the NFL." Yes, once again it's time to see how the NFL draft went from a purely UVA perspective. This is a much shorter exercise than last year, when we had enough matriculation to the NFL that I had to split it up into draftees and non-draftees. This year, not so much. Maybe that has something to do with 3-9.
Anyway, here are the guys you'll be pulling for to make an NFL roster this year:
Chris Cook - 34th overall to the Vikings
The Vikings picked Cook with the selection they got from the Lions for trading out of the first round - really only a four-pick drop. The UVA fan in me is thrilled - Cook is going to a team bound and determined to upgrade a shaky cornerback position. The Lions fan in me is really pleased to finally have what looks like a really dangerous running back (the Lions took Cal's Jahvid Best with the pick acquired from the Vikings.)
But the combination UVA and Lions fan in me thinks the whole thing sucks. As a Lions fan, see, I can't stand the Vikings - maybe not as strongly as a Packers fan would hate them, but still; and I hate to see a Cavalier drafted by them, it's almost as bad as being drafted by Green Bay or Dallas. Not only that, but they used the pick the Lions gave them, and the Lions really, really need a cornerback too. (They picked one up in the third round instead.) And for the coup de grace: drafting Best gave the Lions the RB depth they needed to cut Cedric Peerman loose. So it's like a double no-Hoos whammy for the Lions.
But, Cook. As the Vikings' highest pick, he's something of a mini-star already in the Twin Cities and will no doubt be scrutinized come fall camp. He wasn't the Vikings' first choice, though; that was going to be Patrick Robinson, who got snagged two picks ahead of them. Minnesota needs cornerbacks badly enough that they decided to take the next one on their board instead of going with the best-player-available approach.
The situation there is really shaky. Cedric Griffin is the best they got, and they're not sure he'll be available for the start of the season. Everyone else was horribly unproductive last season, and the Vikings went out and signed a bunch of other guys before the draft (read: flung poo against the wall to find out what sticks) to try and shore up the position and be able to print up a depth chart and still look at themselves in the mirror. With Griffin probably out for training camp, Cook will have every chance to strut his stuff. Except for maybe the Lions, he'd have had a hard time finding a better situation.
Will Barker - Cowboys UFA
Ugh, I hate the Cowboys, but there's no denying former Cavaliers have had their share of success in Dallas. Both John Phillips and Kevin Ogletree caught on with the Cowboys last year, hauling in seven passes each, and they're joined this offseason by Connor Hughes, providing some warm-body depth at placekicker.
Barker ended up on a team that's more or less without a left tackle, but unfortunately I really have my doubts that Barker's suited for the left side. If he's a tackle, he's a right tackle, and Dallas has more depth on that side. Still, they didn't pick up a lineman til the sixth round and haven't been real active on the FA market for linemen either, so Barker's got as good a chance as any to impress his way onto the roster. As ever, UFA's face a long uphill climb to a steady paycheck and the odds are stacked against them, so when I say he's got a decent chance, that's definitely relative.
Nate Collins - Giants UFA
Another place with a nice contingent of Cavaliers; Collins will join Chris Canty and Clint Sintim on the Giants' defense. There isn't much room, though. Canty is an expensive investment that the Giants want to get some use out of after he was hurt much of last year, and so the depth chart at DT will get a little clogged. They drafted another defensive tackle in the second round as well. Overall, the Giants need more production than they've been getting out of the middle of their D-line, but there's enough depth there - especially high-priced depth - that it'll likely take an injury or something else unforeseen for Collins to crack the roster.
Mikell Simpson - Bengals UFA
Simpson's his small size - seriously, he looks like he's going to break every time he's tackled - make it a difficult battle no matter where he goes. Plus, he's not the only UFA RB the Bengals signed, and guess what else: Cincinnati picked up some familiar competition from the Lions. (Peerman, for the slow on the uptake.) The Bengals have no competition for the starting tailback job and some pretty well-established backups - they're basically looking for one last guy to fill out the back end of the roster, and Simpson's going to find it extremely difficult not to be one of the first cuts.
Rashawn Jackson - Panthers UFA
Guh. Carolina has a pair of 1,000-yard rushers in Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams and some backups they really like in Tyrell Sutton and Mike Goodson. If Jackson is going to make the Panthers' roster it'll probably be as a pure fullback, and a backup at that as Tony Fiammetta has been groomed for the starting job. Unlike Simpson, Jackson also has the size to make a mark on special teams, and in order to make the roster, this is where he'll probably have to expend a lot of effort.
Working in his favor, Fox Sports called him the second-best undrafted free agent, and compared him to Jason Snelling, who's done a terrific job carving himself a niche with Atlanta. The comparison is no accident - Jackson has a very similar skill set, looks a lot like Snelling on the field, and minus the medical year off, followed a very similar career path at UVA. Eerie similarities. Let's hope the parallels can continue; if Jackson catches on with Carolina, it'll likely be right from the Snelling blueprint.
Vic Hall - Bears UFA
Hall's pro recruitment probably reminded him a lot of his college recruitment. Defense? Offense? Different teams had different ideas. For the Bears, it'll be offense, at least at first - slot receiver. Right in Devin Hester's wheelhouse. The Bears also have Rashied Davis as a backup there, and if Hall ends up as a slot and KR, those two at least will be in front of him. His versatility makes it tough to figure his chances of making the roster, but it also greatly improves them, and don't be surprised if he does land on his feet somewhere. Might not necessarily be the Bears, and it could be anywhere on the field - kick returner, gunner, cornerback, slot. The practice squad is also a distinct possibility - thanks to his athleticism, probably a greater possibility than any of the other UFA's listed here since he can be asked to portray various opposing burners as a scout teamer. That kind of sucks, but in the end there's a reason Hall was one of Groh's favorites and I can't see him being completely shunted aside when all's said and done.
Showing posts with label ogletree. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ogletree. Show all posts
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Thursday, August 13, 2009
more baseball in football season, but also football
Today, a break from the heavy stuff. Those season previews are no joke to write, man. We'll catch up on a little bit of the goings-on for Hoos in the pros.
First, a little fluff on John Phillips and Kevin Ogletree from the Cowboys' official site. Should be good news that the official site writer is putting stuff out there on these guys, right? And speaking of Cavalier wide receivers, Billy McMullen has been released by Seattle, and signed with the Lions yesterday. This probably is not significant - the Lions basically need warm bodies to run receiver drills with so many of them out, and McMullen is a long, long shot to make the roster. I mention this mainly just because it's cool as a Lions fan that McMullen's onboard, however long it lasts. Hey, you never know. Detroit's had good luck with UVA receivers in the past.
And speaking of early departures, Matt Packer has decided to join that club. This surprises me, frankly. Packer was picked in the 32nd round and I figured a good senior season would cut that draft round in half or so. All is quiet on the Tyler Cannon front; Cannon has four more days to sign if he's going to do so.
That makes three very reliable arms we have to replace instead of two, but Jeff White has your answer to that, as Branden Kline has turned down sixth-round money from the Red Sox to come to UVA. Outstanding. Kline has the usual sick and twisted stats of a kid who's obviously too good for high school - in his case, a 0.66 ERA and two strikeouts an inning - and should come in ready to contribute. Based on limited but highly effective summer league stints, Will Roberts and Justin Thompson could be ready to assume a larger role, and we should also be able to lean more heavily on Shane Halley. So fear not friends - the pitching is poised to get better, not worse.
I told you K.T. Harrell wasn't done moving up ESPN's list. He checks in now at #86 on the ESPNU 100 with a ranking of 93, a nice boost from the 90 he had before he committed. Regan and Harris don't make it, and neither does Trae Golden, but a few of our other targets are there: Kyrie Irving at #6 (!), James Johnson at #69, Michael Cobbins at #85.
Lastly we have - recruiting board! Yes! Actually boo. As with previous weeks, more names are dropping off than jumping on board. I have only two addition: LB Quayshawn Nealy, who we offered, and CB Louis Young, who's already decommitted twice from Stanford. Young claims to be a soft verbal to Stanford, but: riiiiiiight.
And the cuts are coming hard and heavy. CB Urell Johnson surprise-committed elsewhere, after, in reverse order: talking about taking all year to decide, decommitting from Southern Miss, surprise-committing to Southern Miss, and talking about taking all year to decide. So as a "verbal", he's off, for now, and would it surprise anyone to see him back at some point? Also gone are: LB Khairi Fortt, QB Munchie Legaux, DE Kareem Martin, and DT Bruce Gaston, all of whom came out with top threes or fives or sixes or whatever and didn't say Virginia when they did it. Fortt actually probably eliminated us a long time ago. Legaux has done all manner of mind-changing throughout his recruitment, but I think we were more of a novelty than anything there anyway. Martin is a little bit surprising; Gaston less so, but disappointing nonetheless - we need a DT in this class and Gaston was one of three we're focusing on. I'm getting antsy for a commitment here - it's been about five weeks.
First, a little fluff on John Phillips and Kevin Ogletree from the Cowboys' official site. Should be good news that the official site writer is putting stuff out there on these guys, right? And speaking of Cavalier wide receivers, Billy McMullen has been released by Seattle, and signed with the Lions yesterday. This probably is not significant - the Lions basically need warm bodies to run receiver drills with so many of them out, and McMullen is a long, long shot to make the roster. I mention this mainly just because it's cool as a Lions fan that McMullen's onboard, however long it lasts. Hey, you never know. Detroit's had good luck with UVA receivers in the past.
And speaking of early departures, Matt Packer has decided to join that club. This surprises me, frankly. Packer was picked in the 32nd round and I figured a good senior season would cut that draft round in half or so. All is quiet on the Tyler Cannon front; Cannon has four more days to sign if he's going to do so.
That makes three very reliable arms we have to replace instead of two, but Jeff White has your answer to that, as Branden Kline has turned down sixth-round money from the Red Sox to come to UVA. Outstanding. Kline has the usual sick and twisted stats of a kid who's obviously too good for high school - in his case, a 0.66 ERA and two strikeouts an inning - and should come in ready to contribute. Based on limited but highly effective summer league stints, Will Roberts and Justin Thompson could be ready to assume a larger role, and we should also be able to lean more heavily on Shane Halley. So fear not friends - the pitching is poised to get better, not worse.
I told you K.T. Harrell wasn't done moving up ESPN's list. He checks in now at #86 on the ESPNU 100 with a ranking of 93, a nice boost from the 90 he had before he committed. Regan and Harris don't make it, and neither does Trae Golden, but a few of our other targets are there: Kyrie Irving at #6 (!), James Johnson at #69, Michael Cobbins at #85.
Lastly we have - recruiting board! Yes! Actually boo. As with previous weeks, more names are dropping off than jumping on board. I have only two addition: LB Quayshawn Nealy, who we offered, and CB Louis Young, who's already decommitted twice from Stanford. Young claims to be a soft verbal to Stanford, but: riiiiiiight.
And the cuts are coming hard and heavy. CB Urell Johnson surprise-committed elsewhere, after, in reverse order: talking about taking all year to decide, decommitting from Southern Miss, surprise-committing to Southern Miss, and talking about taking all year to decide. So as a "verbal", he's off, for now, and would it surprise anyone to see him back at some point? Also gone are: LB Khairi Fortt, QB Munchie Legaux, DE Kareem Martin, and DT Bruce Gaston, all of whom came out with top threes or fives or sixes or whatever and didn't say Virginia when they did it. Fortt actually probably eliminated us a long time ago. Legaux has done all manner of mind-changing throughout his recruitment, but I think we were more of a novelty than anything there anyway. Martin is a little bit surprising; Gaston less so, but disappointing nonetheless - we need a DT in this class and Gaston was one of three we're focusing on. I'm getting antsy for a commitment here - it's been about five weeks.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
the future for our non-draftees
Yesterday I predicted a bright and sunny future for those of our players that did get drafted, right after predicting a bright and sunny weekend for those of our players that were in the draft. As it turned out I overrated the draft chances of nearly every single one of the players I made any sort of prediction on. I'm a fan, go figure.
Anyway, today, I will tell you all about our undrafted free agents. If I missed any, sue me; either that or just tell me nicely and I'll fix it. I'm getting the list from this site right here, which seems pretty thorough. Also I am not going to bother with the players going in for tryouts before they get signed, including, say, Byron Glaspy. I like thoroughness, and the likelihood of me missing a number of such players, combined with the unlikelihood of said tryout culminating in an NFL career, is reason enough for me not to worry about it.
Interestingly, we had more players actually get drafted than sign as undrafted FA's.
Oh, before I start: consider all of these as coming with the obvious caveat that the vast, screaming majority of undrafted free agents typically fail to make so much as a practice squad. Therefore when I talk about someone's likelihood of making a roster, that should be taken as "relative to the likelihood of the average undrafted free agent making the same roster." Anyway.
Antonio Appleby - Patriots
One of the best pieces of news here is that the Pats play a 3-4, so Appleby won't have to learn his way around first. I think if a 4-3 team had signed him, there's no way he'd have made it with that team, considering the odds that undrafted FA's face plus the learning curve of a new defense.
That said, not only did Appleby end up in the right defense, he also ended up on the right depth chart. The tough part is that the Pats' starting ILB's are set in stone, so there's no chance for anyone ahead of him to move up causing openings below etc. etc. The nice part is that the players listed as backups on the Pats' depth chart aren't setting any worlds on fire. One was a UDFA his own self just last year and made his way right into the lineup as a rookie. The other has a very thin resume. New England didn't sign any other linebackers after the draft and didn't draft any inside 'backers during it. Appleby, if he stays signed by fall camp and if the Patriots don't sign anyone else (that is another caveat that applies to all three of these, should have a chance to compete for one of those precious final roster spots. I think he can stick with the Patriots at the very least as a practice squad guy.
Alex Field - Giants
The Giants did sign another DE after the draft, and furthermore, drafted a guy who could slide up to play DE in the right situation. You might remember him. Field, therefore, is in direct competition at the very least with Penn State's Maurice Evans. The problem here is not the depth chart or the competition though - it's that Field really was not even a standout college player. Steady and unspectacular is how you'd describe him. He is bigger than most of the Giants' current defensive ends, so he's got that going for him, but not so big that a move inside is a viable option. Unfortunately I don't think Field has an NFL future.
Kevin Ogletree - Cowboys
Hu boy. Ogletree is going to be unfortunately remembered by UVA fans for quite some time as the quintessential don't-leave-early cautionary tale. Ogletree was compared to Tavon Mason immediately upon making his decision and again after the draft passed him by; the next Cavalier to unwisely leave early will assuredly conjure up Ogletree's name. It's a shame too because with so many standout WR's leaving the ACC this year, Ogletree had a terrific shot at making a real name for himself in conference play. Many of the usual arguments in favor of leaving early (could have gotten hurt next year, scheme might have caused production to drop, etc. etc.) are now easily fended off with, "Yeah, that would suck, he might not get drafted then." Worse yet, Ogletree didn't make anyone's list of "best undrafted free agents." (That's ESPN's - he also didn't make Yahoo's, which if I could find, I would link. Grrr.)
Anyway, the flip side is that Ogletree got all sorts of feedback telling him he'd be drafted. Somewhere. By someone. And not just the seventh round, either. And it was from the NFL advisory board, not some slimy agent. Everyone thought his leaving was a bad idea, but not because he wouldn't get drafted; it was because he wouldn't get drafted high enough. Even the most pessimistic people about his chances probably didn't see that one coming.
But, Ogletree was one of the first UDFA's to find a landing spot. And he landed somewhere with a lot of uncertainty. Despite some skepticism among the fans, Jerry Jones stood by his wide receiver corps and stayed true to his word; the Cowboys used only their last of 12 picks on a wide receiver. Jones appears to mean what he says about his WRs; problem is, not many other people think his WRs can live up to his faith in them. They certainly crapped out last year.
We know Ogletree's talents, and his ability to play NFL ball is much less in question than Appleby and Field. There's probably room for one more receiver besides the six already listed on the roster; if so, Ogletree is currently in direct competition for it with fellow UDFA Julian Hawkins and 7th round pick Manuel Johnson. Any more space for a WR depends on how long the guys currently there remain Jones' boys. The speed at which Ogletree got picked up by the Cowboys suggests there's probably some amount of interest around the league for his services, and Ogletree will find a home on a practice squad if he's not on a roster.
Programming note: I'm entertaining family this week starting tomorrow. So daily posts all three days this week are so unlikely as to be considered nigh-impossible. I will try and get one out there on one of these days, and just to make it up to you I'll put something up on Sunday too.
Anyway, today, I will tell you all about our undrafted free agents. If I missed any, sue me; either that or just tell me nicely and I'll fix it. I'm getting the list from this site right here, which seems pretty thorough. Also I am not going to bother with the players going in for tryouts before they get signed, including, say, Byron Glaspy. I like thoroughness, and the likelihood of me missing a number of such players, combined with the unlikelihood of said tryout culminating in an NFL career, is reason enough for me not to worry about it.
Interestingly, we had more players actually get drafted than sign as undrafted FA's.
Oh, before I start: consider all of these as coming with the obvious caveat that the vast, screaming majority of undrafted free agents typically fail to make so much as a practice squad. Therefore when I talk about someone's likelihood of making a roster, that should be taken as "relative to the likelihood of the average undrafted free agent making the same roster." Anyway.
Antonio Appleby - Patriots
One of the best pieces of news here is that the Pats play a 3-4, so Appleby won't have to learn his way around first. I think if a 4-3 team had signed him, there's no way he'd have made it with that team, considering the odds that undrafted FA's face plus the learning curve of a new defense.
That said, not only did Appleby end up in the right defense, he also ended up on the right depth chart. The tough part is that the Pats' starting ILB's are set in stone, so there's no chance for anyone ahead of him to move up causing openings below etc. etc. The nice part is that the players listed as backups on the Pats' depth chart aren't setting any worlds on fire. One was a UDFA his own self just last year and made his way right into the lineup as a rookie. The other has a very thin resume. New England didn't sign any other linebackers after the draft and didn't draft any inside 'backers during it. Appleby, if he stays signed by fall camp and if the Patriots don't sign anyone else (that is another caveat that applies to all three of these, should have a chance to compete for one of those precious final roster spots. I think he can stick with the Patriots at the very least as a practice squad guy.
Alex Field - Giants
The Giants did sign another DE after the draft, and furthermore, drafted a guy who could slide up to play DE in the right situation. You might remember him. Field, therefore, is in direct competition at the very least with Penn State's Maurice Evans. The problem here is not the depth chart or the competition though - it's that Field really was not even a standout college player. Steady and unspectacular is how you'd describe him. He is bigger than most of the Giants' current defensive ends, so he's got that going for him, but not so big that a move inside is a viable option. Unfortunately I don't think Field has an NFL future.
Kevin Ogletree - Cowboys
Hu boy. Ogletree is going to be unfortunately remembered by UVA fans for quite some time as the quintessential don't-leave-early cautionary tale. Ogletree was compared to Tavon Mason immediately upon making his decision and again after the draft passed him by; the next Cavalier to unwisely leave early will assuredly conjure up Ogletree's name. It's a shame too because with so many standout WR's leaving the ACC this year, Ogletree had a terrific shot at making a real name for himself in conference play. Many of the usual arguments in favor of leaving early (could have gotten hurt next year, scheme might have caused production to drop, etc. etc.) are now easily fended off with, "Yeah, that would suck, he might not get drafted then." Worse yet, Ogletree didn't make anyone's list of "best undrafted free agents." (That's ESPN's - he also didn't make Yahoo's, which if I could find, I would link. Grrr.)
Anyway, the flip side is that Ogletree got all sorts of feedback telling him he'd be drafted. Somewhere. By someone. And not just the seventh round, either. And it was from the NFL advisory board, not some slimy agent. Everyone thought his leaving was a bad idea, but not because he wouldn't get drafted; it was because he wouldn't get drafted high enough. Even the most pessimistic people about his chances probably didn't see that one coming.
But, Ogletree was one of the first UDFA's to find a landing spot. And he landed somewhere with a lot of uncertainty. Despite some skepticism among the fans, Jerry Jones stood by his wide receiver corps and stayed true to his word; the Cowboys used only their last of 12 picks on a wide receiver. Jones appears to mean what he says about his WRs; problem is, not many other people think his WRs can live up to his faith in them. They certainly crapped out last year.
We know Ogletree's talents, and his ability to play NFL ball is much less in question than Appleby and Field. There's probably room for one more receiver besides the six already listed on the roster; if so, Ogletree is currently in direct competition for it with fellow UDFA Julian Hawkins and 7th round pick Manuel Johnson. Any more space for a WR depends on how long the guys currently there remain Jones' boys. The speed at which Ogletree got picked up by the Cowboys suggests there's probably some amount of interest around the league for his services, and Ogletree will find a home on a practice squad if he's not on a roster.
Programming note: I'm entertaining family this week starting tomorrow. So daily posts all three days this week are so unlikely as to be considered nigh-impossible. I will try and get one out there on one of these days, and just to make it up to you I'll put something up on Sunday too.
Friday, January 9, 2009
nothing special today, or so i thought
There's a nice hey-check-out-this-guy article on Sylven Landesberg, should you be interested in the next great 'Hoo baller. Actually not a lot the average 'Hoo fan doesn't already know, but it's nice to see that national pub for a guy who deserves some.
"Does not have potential to be drafted in the first three rounds." That's the evaluation Kevin Ogletree got back from the NFL when he submitted his paperwork. I generally hesitate to criticize our own players who declare early for the draft, because I clearly have very selfish motives in wanting them to stay. But you kinda have to wonder who told Ogletree what, that outweighed that paperwork.
Jeff White has a bunch of interesting stuff courtesy of Al Groh. My take on some of these items:
- Rico Bell transfer. Disappointing that he didn't pan out, because he was one of the highest-rated recruits of the 2006 class, and he chose UVA over an offer list that included Tennessee. Bell was not even on the two-deep this year as a redshirt sophomore and didn't look likely to crack it next year either, which no doubt contributed to the decision. Chris Cook is returning and could get moved to safety, and we are taking a butt-ton of safeties in the '09 class, and Bell saw the writing on the wall. There are a couple exceptions, but that class of '06 is starting to look like a flop these days.
- Also not back: Patrick Slebonick, Jason Fuller, and probably Cary Koch, though Koch is petitioning for another season. Returning to the team: Brandon Woods, Darnell Carter, and probably Yannick Reyering. Woods should be able to carve out some playing time this year - unless a true freshman impresses greatly, he and Ausar Walcott look like the early front-runners for the two-deep behind Corey Mosley and Cook. Carter will have a chance to compete in a wide-open race for spots on the depth chart now that Jon Copper and Antonio Appleby have graduated.
- I'm betting on Vic Hall to get moved to offense this year - the play of Chase Minnifield allows it. Hall can be a dangerous wild card for the offense and just the sort of guy to design a few trick plays around.
This popped up on the official site like right as I'm typing: your new strength and conditioning coach. OK, Director of Football Training and Player Development, whatever, I guess in the spirit of the official name of the stadium we gotta make it wicked long. Gotta love the wild and crazy eyes. The eyes that say "why the hell can you not bench 600 pounds, son?!?!" and the half-smile that adds "oh btw I'm really going to enjoy yelling at you for it." I call that a first step in the right direction.
I'm putting off the VT game preview til tomorrow morning. I didn't realize that it's been fourteen years since we started 2-0 in the conference. Not gonna lie: That's pretty bad. What's weird is that this year - when we're not really all that good - is when we have as good a shot as any to fix that.
"Does not have potential to be drafted in the first three rounds." That's the evaluation Kevin Ogletree got back from the NFL when he submitted his paperwork. I generally hesitate to criticize our own players who declare early for the draft, because I clearly have very selfish motives in wanting them to stay. But you kinda have to wonder who told Ogletree what, that outweighed that paperwork.
Jeff White has a bunch of interesting stuff courtesy of Al Groh. My take on some of these items:
- Rico Bell transfer. Disappointing that he didn't pan out, because he was one of the highest-rated recruits of the 2006 class, and he chose UVA over an offer list that included Tennessee. Bell was not even on the two-deep this year as a redshirt sophomore and didn't look likely to crack it next year either, which no doubt contributed to the decision. Chris Cook is returning and could get moved to safety, and we are taking a butt-ton of safeties in the '09 class, and Bell saw the writing on the wall. There are a couple exceptions, but that class of '06 is starting to look like a flop these days.
- Also not back: Patrick Slebonick, Jason Fuller, and probably Cary Koch, though Koch is petitioning for another season. Returning to the team: Brandon Woods, Darnell Carter, and probably Yannick Reyering. Woods should be able to carve out some playing time this year - unless a true freshman impresses greatly, he and Ausar Walcott look like the early front-runners for the two-deep behind Corey Mosley and Cook. Carter will have a chance to compete in a wide-open race for spots on the depth chart now that Jon Copper and Antonio Appleby have graduated.
- I'm betting on Vic Hall to get moved to offense this year - the play of Chase Minnifield allows it. Hall can be a dangerous wild card for the offense and just the sort of guy to design a few trick plays around.
This popped up on the official site like right as I'm typing: your new strength and conditioning coach. OK, Director of Football Training and Player Development, whatever, I guess in the spirit of the official name of the stadium we gotta make it wicked long. Gotta love the wild and crazy eyes. The eyes that say "why the hell can you not bench 600 pounds, son?!?!" and the half-smile that adds "oh btw I'm really going to enjoy yelling at you for it." I call that a first step in the right direction.
I'm putting off the VT game preview til tomorrow morning. I didn't realize that it's been fourteen years since we started 2-0 in the conference. Not gonna lie: That's pretty bad. What's weird is that this year - when we're not really all that good - is when we have as good a shot as any to fix that.
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
KO, going pro
So we're down a wide receiver. More in a bit, after I make excuses about why I'm not going to do much about the Hunter Steward commit. Steward, obviously, is going to go to Fork Union for a year - the story behind that is that the coaches want him to go for "physical development." Physical development? The kid's six foot seven! OK, fine, whatever, he'll go to FUMA for a year which is essentially a grayshirt year, pack some muscle onto that scrawny 300-pound frame of his, and come back in 2010 with a vengeance. The upshot for your humble blogger is that I'm not gonna bother doing a recruit profile thingy until after the rest of the '09 class is done and almost certainly not til after Signing Day, and I'm not gonna add him to the committed section of the recruiting board. For all intents and purposes he is the first '10 recruit, rather than the 23rd '09 one. I guess that means the '10 class is a little behind the '09 one, because Alex Owah committed last December.
OK, so Kevin Ogletree is going to the draft and that sucks. Last year Branden Albert left early, and you kind of had to shrug your shoulders because he went 15th overall. I admit to being surprised at Ogletree's decision, though. I'm not sure he's any higher than a fourth round pick right now, but I guess we'll have to wait and see what the scouts say. There are quite a few receivers who'll likely be drafted ahead of him, including Hakeem Nicks, who dazzled on the big stage of a bowl game, and Rutgers' Kenny Britt, who was fifth in the nation in receiving yards and is 6'4". Both also declared early. The scouts also put guys like Percy Harvin and Jeremy Maclin near the top - neither of whom have declared yet, but could.
Had he stayed, Ogletree could have conceivably led the ACC in all receiving categories. Nicks and Clemson's Aaron Kelly are departing - these were the only two ahead of 'Tree in receiving yards. Also leaving are Wake's D.J. Boldin, Duke's Eron Riley, Maryland's Darrius Heyward-Bey....there are going to be a lot of new faces at the top of the receiving stats list next year. Ogletree would certainly have been a preseason all-conference pick, and probably a postseason one too. The only question is, would it have helped his standing in the draft? I dunno. Not really qualified to answer that. But with so many good receivers leaving the ACC, this might not be the year to hop the train. Academically Ogletree would have gained nothing - by virtue of that year sitting out with a knee injury, he's already graduated.
What it means for us is, no senior wide receivers on next year's team, and as it stands now (without counting the '09 recruiting class, that is) more walk-ons than scholarship players. Dontrelle Inman will be our most experienced wide receiver. I was once told that the receivers were second only to the quarterbacks when it came to being harangued and ridden on by the coaching staff about knowing the minute little details of every play, so it'd have been nice to have that senior leadership.
But there's plenty of talent ready to step up, some of which (Inman, Staton Jobe) had decent seasons in 2007 but disappeared behind Ogletree's and Maurice Covington's fine seasons. Jared Green and Kris Burd will certainly be in the mix. A true freshman like Tim Smith could step into the game as well, and I'm looking forward to the size and style of play that Kevin Royal brings to the table. So Ogletree isn't leaving behind a vacuum; clearly, Gregg Brandon will have a lot to work with. But there won't be any easing of players into a top role; one of these guys is going to have to step out on the field in September and straight into a spotlight that they're unfamiliar with. It'll be a very interesting position battle.
OK, so Kevin Ogletree is going to the draft and that sucks. Last year Branden Albert left early, and you kind of had to shrug your shoulders because he went 15th overall. I admit to being surprised at Ogletree's decision, though. I'm not sure he's any higher than a fourth round pick right now, but I guess we'll have to wait and see what the scouts say. There are quite a few receivers who'll likely be drafted ahead of him, including Hakeem Nicks, who dazzled on the big stage of a bowl game, and Rutgers' Kenny Britt, who was fifth in the nation in receiving yards and is 6'4". Both also declared early. The scouts also put guys like Percy Harvin and Jeremy Maclin near the top - neither of whom have declared yet, but could.
Had he stayed, Ogletree could have conceivably led the ACC in all receiving categories. Nicks and Clemson's Aaron Kelly are departing - these were the only two ahead of 'Tree in receiving yards. Also leaving are Wake's D.J. Boldin, Duke's Eron Riley, Maryland's Darrius Heyward-Bey....there are going to be a lot of new faces at the top of the receiving stats list next year. Ogletree would certainly have been a preseason all-conference pick, and probably a postseason one too. The only question is, would it have helped his standing in the draft? I dunno. Not really qualified to answer that. But with so many good receivers leaving the ACC, this might not be the year to hop the train. Academically Ogletree would have gained nothing - by virtue of that year sitting out with a knee injury, he's already graduated.
What it means for us is, no senior wide receivers on next year's team, and as it stands now (without counting the '09 recruiting class, that is) more walk-ons than scholarship players. Dontrelle Inman will be our most experienced wide receiver. I was once told that the receivers were second only to the quarterbacks when it came to being harangued and ridden on by the coaching staff about knowing the minute little details of every play, so it'd have been nice to have that senior leadership.
But there's plenty of talent ready to step up, some of which (Inman, Staton Jobe) had decent seasons in 2007 but disappeared behind Ogletree's and Maurice Covington's fine seasons. Jared Green and Kris Burd will certainly be in the mix. A true freshman like Tim Smith could step into the game as well, and I'm looking forward to the size and style of play that Kevin Royal brings to the table. So Ogletree isn't leaving behind a vacuum; clearly, Gregg Brandon will have a lot to work with. But there won't be any easing of players into a top role; one of these guys is going to have to step out on the field in September and straight into a spotlight that they're unfamiliar with. It'll be a very interesting position battle.
one coming, one going
Two quick tidbits from TheSabre: first, OL Hunter Steward is a UVA commit, though he will probably count for 2010 vice 2009 as he is expected to spend a year at Fork Union.
Second, the bad news: Kevin Ogletree is departing for the draft. Rats. Take heart though - there are some quality young'uns that appear ready to step up. Losing Ogletree certainly won't help, but it might not hurt as bad as it seems.
I'll blab at you with deeper thoughts later this evening.
Second, the bad news: Kevin Ogletree is departing for the draft. Rats. Take heart though - there are some quality young'uns that appear ready to step up. Losing Ogletree certainly won't help, but it might not hurt as bad as it seems.
I'll blab at you with deeper thoughts later this evening.
Sunday, September 7, 2008
Richmond in review
So, Retro Day. Sharp-looking uniforms, no? I wouldn't mind seeing that getup with the current helmet instead of the Penn State knockoff and the V-sabre on the shoulder instead of the old block V. Tell me we wouldn't look good in that. Ironically, during the period when that uniform was worn, we never played Richmond.
Anyway, in honor of Retro Day, it seems there was a lot more throwbackin' going on than just the uniforms and the ticket prices. Let's take a look at what else was retro yesterday and where exactly they threw back to.
- The offense: Back to the last time we played Richmond. Seriously? 10 points? The run blocking is lousy: Simpson carried 23 times and might have had adequate room to run on maybe 2 of them. Pass protection was slightly better than adequate this time around, so there is improvement. Lalich started off really sharp and fell off, but his play was improved as well. It's hard to gauge improvement given the two extremes of opponents we've played, but quarterback accuracy for the most part is irrelevant of the opposition, and Lalich's accuracy was definitely better than last week.
- The defense: November 10, 2007, the last time the defense pitched a shutout. As bad as they looked last week, they were that good this week. I don't care that Richmond is a I-AA team, hell I don't care if the opponent is Sister Mary's School for the Blind. Zero points is zero points, and that's even better when the opponent gets to start five drives in our own territory.
- The band: 1933. Overalls?
- The camera work: Also 1989. Did the yellow first-down line get cut from the budget? Couldn't afford another camera at the other end of the field, or one of those fancy carts that goes back and forth? It was like being back in the student section, only without the fun.
- The broadcasting crew: Any time before the media guide came out. Marcus Covington, Gary Koch, and Yannick Revering all had great games, huh?
Some other observations, including the coveted game ball, which FOV does not hand out for 52-7 losses:
- Al Groh has giant brass balls, which he must have found in the parking lot before the game. Four attempts to go for it on fourth down? That's awesome. I'm not even being sarcastic. I wish teams would go for it on fourth down much more than they do. 4th and 1, 75% of the time, it should be a no-brainer that the punt team stays on the bench. If you can't pick up one lousy yard, which usually is more like a foot and a half, you have bigger issues than overly bold playcalling. I don't care that we failed on 3 of 4 attempts, I want to see this kind of aggressiveness all the time.
- Game ball goes to the entire defensive line for stomping the Richmond O-line into submission. Six sacks and five more TFLs (I know, I know, a lot of that was linebacker play, which couldn't have happened if they didn't keep having to double team the ends.) I think it was Field that blocked the FG. The whole day was picture-perfect 3-4 defense D-line play - they kept the entire five-man O-line occupied and made a lot of the plays themselves. Hats off.
Now for the QB review. If you missed it last week, I go back through the game watching the quarterback's throws, and adjust his stats based on what "should" have happened with that throw. A nice gain is wiped out by a holding penalty? I add that to the stats. A receiver makes a brilliant twisting catch of a badly thrown ball? Subtract those numbers. Ball is dropped by a defensive back? Give the QB the pick that "should" be on the stat sheet. I fully realize this means some yards get counted twice, as in a 5-yard completion after a holding penalty wipes out a 15-yard pickup, but the idea is to gauge the results of the throws themselves.
This is also, for the most part, not to judge where the quarterback should have thrown the ball, just what happened when he did. Most throws happen "as they should" - the QB threw a bad ball and it fell incomplete, etc. A lot of this is judgment on my part, because whether or not a catch should have been made is entirely subjective.
Lalich's stats for the game: 21/39, 204 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT
Lalich's "real" game stats: 23/42, 228 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT
Like last week, not a lot of variation. (This is probably to be expected. This sort of review is pretty experimental anyway. If we go through the season and there's not a lot of difference, I'll probably scrap the idea and try and come up with something else.) Anyway. Here's how we got the new stats:
Throw #6: Doesn't show up on the stat sheet thanks to an offside penalty on Richmond. It was a 3-yard completion to Torchia, we took the penalty instead. Add a completion, an attempt, and 3 yards.
Throw #8: An incompletion that doesn't show on the stat sheet thanks to another offside penalty. Add one incompletion and an attempt.
Throw #10: A really nice 26-yard completion to Kevin Ogletree that was wiped out by a holding call. Give Lalich 1 completion, 1 attempt, and the 26 yards.
Throw #14: A screen pass to Peerman which Peerman should have had. It's a good thing he didn't because he would have been dropped for a five-yard loss. Add a completion but take away five yards.
Throw #21: Ogletree made a nice sliding catch of a badly-thrown ball. Take away a completion and 10 yards.
Throw #23: Ogletree made an even nicer sliding catch of an even worse thrown ball, and it probably should have been overturned on review anyway. Subtract another 25 yards and a completion.
Throw #25: Dangerous but accurate throw which Ogletree dropped. Add a completion and 20 yards.
Throw #39: Covington had it right on his shoulder and dropped it. Add a completion and 15 yards.
So, all of this: what does it mean for next week? Well, we have UConn next week and our first road test. Take nothing away from their Temple game. Temple is a lousy team but that game was as sloppy and messy as I thought ours would be.
Anyway, in honor of Retro Day, it seems there was a lot more throwbackin' going on than just the uniforms and the ticket prices. Let's take a look at what else was retro yesterday and where exactly they threw back to.
- The offense: Back to the last time we played Richmond. Seriously? 10 points? The run blocking is lousy: Simpson carried 23 times and might have had adequate room to run on maybe 2 of them. Pass protection was slightly better than adequate this time around, so there is improvement. Lalich started off really sharp and fell off, but his play was improved as well. It's hard to gauge improvement given the two extremes of opponents we've played, but quarterback accuracy for the most part is irrelevant of the opposition, and Lalich's accuracy was definitely better than last week.
- The defense: November 10, 2007, the last time the defense pitched a shutout. As bad as they looked last week, they were that good this week. I don't care that Richmond is a I-AA team, hell I don't care if the opponent is Sister Mary's School for the Blind. Zero points is zero points, and that's even better when the opponent gets to start five drives in our own territory.
- The band: 1933. Overalls?
- The camera work: Also 1989. Did the yellow first-down line get cut from the budget? Couldn't afford another camera at the other end of the field, or one of those fancy carts that goes back and forth? It was like being back in the student section, only without the fun.
- The broadcasting crew: Any time before the media guide came out. Marcus Covington, Gary Koch, and Yannick Revering all had great games, huh?
Some other observations, including the coveted game ball, which FOV does not hand out for 52-7 losses:
- Al Groh has giant brass balls, which he must have found in the parking lot before the game. Four attempts to go for it on fourth down? That's awesome. I'm not even being sarcastic. I wish teams would go for it on fourth down much more than they do. 4th and 1, 75% of the time, it should be a no-brainer that the punt team stays on the bench. If you can't pick up one lousy yard, which usually is more like a foot and a half, you have bigger issues than overly bold playcalling. I don't care that we failed on 3 of 4 attempts, I want to see this kind of aggressiveness all the time.
- Game ball goes to the entire defensive line for stomping the Richmond O-line into submission. Six sacks and five more TFLs (I know, I know, a lot of that was linebacker play, which couldn't have happened if they didn't keep having to double team the ends.) I think it was Field that blocked the FG. The whole day was picture-perfect 3-4 defense D-line play - they kept the entire five-man O-line occupied and made a lot of the plays themselves. Hats off.
Now for the QB review. If you missed it last week, I go back through the game watching the quarterback's throws, and adjust his stats based on what "should" have happened with that throw. A nice gain is wiped out by a holding penalty? I add that to the stats. A receiver makes a brilliant twisting catch of a badly thrown ball? Subtract those numbers. Ball is dropped by a defensive back? Give the QB the pick that "should" be on the stat sheet. I fully realize this means some yards get counted twice, as in a 5-yard completion after a holding penalty wipes out a 15-yard pickup, but the idea is to gauge the results of the throws themselves.
This is also, for the most part, not to judge where the quarterback should have thrown the ball, just what happened when he did. Most throws happen "as they should" - the QB threw a bad ball and it fell incomplete, etc. A lot of this is judgment on my part, because whether or not a catch should have been made is entirely subjective.
Lalich's stats for the game: 21/39, 204 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT
Lalich's "real" game stats: 23/42, 228 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT
Like last week, not a lot of variation. (This is probably to be expected. This sort of review is pretty experimental anyway. If we go through the season and there's not a lot of difference, I'll probably scrap the idea and try and come up with something else.) Anyway. Here's how we got the new stats:
Throw #6: Doesn't show up on the stat sheet thanks to an offside penalty on Richmond. It was a 3-yard completion to Torchia, we took the penalty instead. Add a completion, an attempt, and 3 yards.
Throw #8: An incompletion that doesn't show on the stat sheet thanks to another offside penalty. Add one incompletion and an attempt.
Throw #10: A really nice 26-yard completion to Kevin Ogletree that was wiped out by a holding call. Give Lalich 1 completion, 1 attempt, and the 26 yards.
Throw #14: A screen pass to Peerman which Peerman should have had. It's a good thing he didn't because he would have been dropped for a five-yard loss. Add a completion but take away five yards.
Throw #21: Ogletree made a nice sliding catch of a badly-thrown ball. Take away a completion and 10 yards.
Throw #23: Ogletree made an even nicer sliding catch of an even worse thrown ball, and it probably should have been overturned on review anyway. Subtract another 25 yards and a completion.
Throw #25: Dangerous but accurate throw which Ogletree dropped. Add a completion and 20 yards.
Throw #39: Covington had it right on his shoulder and dropped it. Add a completion and 15 yards.
So, all of this: what does it mean for next week? Well, we have UConn next week and our first road test. Take nothing away from their Temple game. Temple is a lousy team but that game was as sloppy and messy as I thought ours would be.
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
season preview: offense
As promised. The first of two. Tomorrow, we'll "tackle" (HAHA) the defense.
QUARTERBACKS
OK, we all know the drill. And we don’t know who’ll win the three-way derby between Peter Lalich (#7), Scott Deke (#15), and Marc Verica (#6). Some are excited about the possibility of Riko Smalls (#3) seeing some time, but if that ever happens in any capacity other than to throw the defense off their rhythm, and very, very occasionally, we are frankly dead meat. Verica is said to have the strongest arm; Deke is the fifth-year senior who has already graduated; Lalich is the golden recruit. Here’s the deal, though. If you buy that recruiting rankings are a good judge of raw talent, then Lalich has far and away the most, and if so then it’s a disconcerting sign that he didn’t blow away the coaches and seize the job in spring practice. Deke is a career clipboard stand who has never had even a sniff at the job until this, his fifth and final year in the program; that does not say “big-time talent.” He is in the hunt because he’s the most experienced and theoretically the most familiar with the offense, but as he’s never been in the hunt before, expectations would not be high if the job is his.
The prevailing opinion, both here and elsewhere, is that Lalich will be the starter when USC kicks off. He has too much talent not to be. The contrarian opinion floating aroud is that, Lalich being the only quarterback that Pete Carroll has any tape on, Groh will pull an ol’ switcheroo and put Deke in there, then eventually replace him with Lalich. My feeling is that it doesn’t matter what tape Carroll has, both of them are going to take their three and five step drops and not scoot around, and until they actually let go of the ball you could switch the numbers and nobody would notice, at least not as far as a defensive coordinator is concerned with trying to put together a plan of attack. Whether Deke plays or not, his presence can hopefully have a positive impact on Lalich; without him, there would be no quarterback more senior than Verica on the roster.
Bottom line, then. Lalich did not have a stellar year in 2007. Freshman quarterbacks rarely blow you away with their play, and Lalich had his good times and his struggles like you’d expect from any freshman. But the struggles seem to have continued through spring and fall practice, because he hasn’t separated himself from a guy who has never been higher than third on the depth chart. Like 2006, there will be growing pains at this position.
Rating: 2 out of 5, and only Lalich would have the ability to make this go any higher, which is why he’s the one who I think will start.
RUNNING BACKS
You know the drill up and down here, too. Cedric Peerman (#37) and Mikell Simpson (#5) make one of the best tandems in the conference. By their powers combined they rushed for over 1,000 yards last year, with Peerman taking the first half of the season and Simpson taking over in the Maryland game after Peerman’s injury the week prior. It’s unlikely that Simpson can be counted on for 25-30 carries a game, but he is faster, more explosive, and a threat to catch the ball out of the backfield. Peerman runs mostly straight ahead and through people instead of around them. The running game is going to be fun to watch.
Just behind the terrible two is Raynard Horne (#44), who we should expect to see as the first option off the bench, though probably not a lot. Groh was asked earlier this summer if the rotation would include a third tailback; his answer, though not in so few words, was “not bloody likely.”
What of Keith Payne (#32), he of so much (probably a bit overstated) potential? Payne is listed on the depth chart as a fullback – the second fullback. Rashawn Jackson (#31) is the guy we can expect to see leading the way for the tailbacks. Rather surprisingly, Jackson was given 14 carries in the Gator Bowl and did pretty good, but don’t expect that to carry over to this season. Groh knows where his gravy train is, and there aren’t going to be a lot of carries to go around after Peerman and Simpson get theirs.
Rating: 4 out of 5. Peerman and Simpson aren’t quite Knowshon Moreno good, but they’re right there with the best in the conference.
WIDE RECEIVERS
‘Tree...whee!(?) Is he going to save the passing game by himself now that he‘s back from a pretty bad knee injury? Unlikely. The fly pattern is not on the front page of Al Groh’s playbook, and the last time a wide receiver played more than a supporting role in the offense, Matt Schaub was throwing to Billy McMullen. But Kevin Ogletree (#20) is also the best chance we’ve had at seeing a big-play receiver since the aforementioned #11. Wide receiver play, and not just that of Ogletree, will go a long way toward making this offense bigger and better than one dimension. Ogletree will need help, and in your humble blogger’s opinion he is most likely to get it from either Dontrelle Inman (#81) or Cary Koch (#26).
Inman came in well-rated by the recruiting services and had a decent campaign for a freshman wide receiver in an offense which de-emphasized the position. Inman should be a good one to watch in the future. Koch transferred in from Tulane after Hurricane Katrina wiped out his major, and immediately found himself derailed with various annoying injuries. Koch’s freshman year was actually pretty good, with 23 catches for 308 yards, and his lack of notable production since then can be chalked up to a hamstring and an MCL. With health comes the chance to be a real sleeper in the ACC.
Koch and Inman, though, are actually listed second on the two-deep behind Ogletree and Maurice Covington (#80) respectively. Covington is a senior and we probably will not see very much from him that we haven’t already. He’ll be steady, and the numbers should rise from last year since he missed four games with a broken hand, but if there’s going to be a real breakthrough in the receiving corps, it likely will be from a lesser-known quantity. We’ve seen what Covington can do, and he’s not a game-breaker.
This is not to forget about Staton Jobe (#22). Jobe walked on to the team last year and walked his way right on to the field. He caught 17 passes last year and is definitely part of the rotation, if not exactly the two-deep. Kris Burd (#18) is another to watch for. Burd impressed the coaches in the offseason and we should expect to see them find a way to get him on the field this year. In a three-receiver set, Burd would be second on the depth chart behind Koch, in the slot.
What’s going to have to happen for the wide receivers to make a real impression on the offense is that someone will have to show they can consistently get open. Ogletree alone will make this offense more receiver-oriented than last year; 2007 was an anomaly even for Groh. He has the skills to beat single coverage, which means he’ll probably be seeing consistent doubles probably as soon as Game Number One. When that happens, someone - anyone, anyone at all - will need to show they can get open on the other side and keep the defenses honest. If they do it will make the offense exponentially better.
Rating: 2 out of 5, but with enough potential and depth to go as high as 4 by season’s end if all works out just right.
TIGHT ENDS
The moneymaker. My first year as a UVA fan was 2000, when Billy Baber was catching passes from Dan Ellis. Since then the only years in which a UVA tight end was not drafted into the NFL were the years when none of them were seniors. The player du jour at the position this year is John Phillips (#85), who caught 17 balls in 2007. Many offenses don’t even use their first tight end that much let alone their third. Little needs to be said - he proved dependable last year and will, as usual, be a big part of the offense this year. Behind him on the depth chart is Joe Torchia (#83). Torchia saw the field in goal-line situations last year when Groh felt like three or four tight ends would make a good blocking formation. No reason to believe that Torchia won’t simply ride the TE conveyor belt and make himself more than useful in the offense this year. Andrew Devlin (#87) will likely jump into Torchia’s old role.
Rating: 4 out of 5. The default setting for Al Groh tight ends. I’m convinced he could find a way to make Muggsy Bogues a good player at this position.
OFFENSIVE LINE
This is the lineup that will take the field against USC: Eugene Monroe (#75) and Will Barker (#61) are the tackles. This is the part of the line that’s in great shape, as long as Barker doesn’t take any more late-late-late night trips to the cooler at certain downtown bars. Both have loads of starting experience, and Monroe was Rivals’ #3 overall recruit in 2005 and is getting that kind of hype again as he enters his senior year. At guard we have Zak Stair (#76) on the left side and B.J. Cabbell (#65) on the right, and Jack Shields (#64) is the starting center. So what we have is progressively less and less experience as you move inward; Stair and Cabbell have seen the field mostly as part of the kick protection team, and Shields has played in exactly one game his whole career.
The backups are mostly freshman, so, ouch. Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that. The only one who isn’t is the backup RG, Isaac Cain (#78) and he’s got just as much experience as Shields does. Stuck back there somewhere is junior Patrick Slebonick, who has just as much experience as Shields and Cain. (See a trend here? The “one game” here is Pittsburgh for all three. You got it – scrub time in a blowout.) Slebonick, though, doesn’t appear in the two-deep thanks to true freshman Austin Pasztor (#63) who’s going to see his share of the field this year. Pasztor is listed as the backup to Zak Stair.
Rating: 3 out of 5. I’m actually pretty bullish on this group. The tackles are very good. The rest of the line is woefully inexperienced, but I think Dave Borbely has that covered. Branden Albert went from a middling three-star recruit to a top-ten pick in the NFL draft under Borbely’s tutelage. His awesomely massive mustache alone is worth some confidence points, and I think he’ll have this group ready to go.
KICKER
Yannick Reyering (#10) will be the kicker for at least the first game this year, having won the camp competition. Yannick Reyering is a former UVA soccer player; Yannick Reyering walked on to the football team after his soccer eligibility expired and now Yannick Reyering is the starter. If Groh had said, screw it, whoever has the coolest name gets to be the kicker, Yannick Reyering would still have won, hands down. But his backup would have been Zach Mendez-Zfass.
Rating: 2 out of 5. The guy is used to aiming for a much much bigger target with only one guy trying to block. He's done nicely in practice, especially for a German dude who not that long ago knew as much about football American-style as you do about Sepak Takraw. But games are another thing entirely. Keeping fingers crossed.
FRESHMEN ON THE FIELD
G Austin Pasztor (true)
WR Kris Burd (redshirt)
TE Andrew Devlin (redshirt)
IN A NUTSHELL
Forget quarterback. Lalich will probably get most of the starts and most of the snaps this year. And you can probably peg how good he’ll be – simply expect a natural progression from last year’s ups and downs, and don’t bet on a sudden out-of-nowhere banner season. The offense is going to hinge on two things: the interior linemen, and every wide receiver except for Kevin Ogletree. If Stair, Shields, and Cabbell are at least adequate, the running game will go places. Places like the end zone. The receivers need to take pressure off of Ogletree. He’s gonna get double-teamed all the damn time until somebody makes the defense pay for doing so. Phillips doesn’t count, he’s a tight end and therefore will be busy showing someone else’s defensive coordinator that linebackers can’t be trusted in pass coverage. It’s the safeties that have to stay off of Ogletree if he’s going to be any kind of a big-play threat at all, and they’re just going to blanket him if they know that whoever else is across from him can’t shake the single cornerback coverage.
QUARTERBACKS
OK, we all know the drill. And we don’t know who’ll win the three-way derby between Peter Lalich (#7), Scott Deke (#15), and Marc Verica (#6). Some are excited about the possibility of Riko Smalls (#3) seeing some time, but if that ever happens in any capacity other than to throw the defense off their rhythm, and very, very occasionally, we are frankly dead meat. Verica is said to have the strongest arm; Deke is the fifth-year senior who has already graduated; Lalich is the golden recruit. Here’s the deal, though. If you buy that recruiting rankings are a good judge of raw talent, then Lalich has far and away the most, and if so then it’s a disconcerting sign that he didn’t blow away the coaches and seize the job in spring practice. Deke is a career clipboard stand who has never had even a sniff at the job until this, his fifth and final year in the program; that does not say “big-time talent.” He is in the hunt because he’s the most experienced and theoretically the most familiar with the offense, but as he’s never been in the hunt before, expectations would not be high if the job is his.
The prevailing opinion, both here and elsewhere, is that Lalich will be the starter when USC kicks off. He has too much talent not to be. The contrarian opinion floating aroud is that, Lalich being the only quarterback that Pete Carroll has any tape on, Groh will pull an ol’ switcheroo and put Deke in there, then eventually replace him with Lalich. My feeling is that it doesn’t matter what tape Carroll has, both of them are going to take their three and five step drops and not scoot around, and until they actually let go of the ball you could switch the numbers and nobody would notice, at least not as far as a defensive coordinator is concerned with trying to put together a plan of attack. Whether Deke plays or not, his presence can hopefully have a positive impact on Lalich; without him, there would be no quarterback more senior than Verica on the roster.
Bottom line, then. Lalich did not have a stellar year in 2007. Freshman quarterbacks rarely blow you away with their play, and Lalich had his good times and his struggles like you’d expect from any freshman. But the struggles seem to have continued through spring and fall practice, because he hasn’t separated himself from a guy who has never been higher than third on the depth chart. Like 2006, there will be growing pains at this position.
Rating: 2 out of 5, and only Lalich would have the ability to make this go any higher, which is why he’s the one who I think will start.
RUNNING BACKS
You know the drill up and down here, too. Cedric Peerman (#37) and Mikell Simpson (#5) make one of the best tandems in the conference. By their powers combined they rushed for over 1,000 yards last year, with Peerman taking the first half of the season and Simpson taking over in the Maryland game after Peerman’s injury the week prior. It’s unlikely that Simpson can be counted on for 25-30 carries a game, but he is faster, more explosive, and a threat to catch the ball out of the backfield. Peerman runs mostly straight ahead and through people instead of around them. The running game is going to be fun to watch.
Just behind the terrible two is Raynard Horne (#44), who we should expect to see as the first option off the bench, though probably not a lot. Groh was asked earlier this summer if the rotation would include a third tailback; his answer, though not in so few words, was “not bloody likely.”
What of Keith Payne (#32), he of so much (probably a bit overstated) potential? Payne is listed on the depth chart as a fullback – the second fullback. Rashawn Jackson (#31) is the guy we can expect to see leading the way for the tailbacks. Rather surprisingly, Jackson was given 14 carries in the Gator Bowl and did pretty good, but don’t expect that to carry over to this season. Groh knows where his gravy train is, and there aren’t going to be a lot of carries to go around after Peerman and Simpson get theirs.
Rating: 4 out of 5. Peerman and Simpson aren’t quite Knowshon Moreno good, but they’re right there with the best in the conference.
WIDE RECEIVERS
‘Tree...whee!(?) Is he going to save the passing game by himself now that he‘s back from a pretty bad knee injury? Unlikely. The fly pattern is not on the front page of Al Groh’s playbook, and the last time a wide receiver played more than a supporting role in the offense, Matt Schaub was throwing to Billy McMullen. But Kevin Ogletree (#20) is also the best chance we’ve had at seeing a big-play receiver since the aforementioned #11. Wide receiver play, and not just that of Ogletree, will go a long way toward making this offense bigger and better than one dimension. Ogletree will need help, and in your humble blogger’s opinion he is most likely to get it from either Dontrelle Inman (#81) or Cary Koch (#26).
Inman came in well-rated by the recruiting services and had a decent campaign for a freshman wide receiver in an offense which de-emphasized the position. Inman should be a good one to watch in the future. Koch transferred in from Tulane after Hurricane Katrina wiped out his major, and immediately found himself derailed with various annoying injuries. Koch’s freshman year was actually pretty good, with 23 catches for 308 yards, and his lack of notable production since then can be chalked up to a hamstring and an MCL. With health comes the chance to be a real sleeper in the ACC.
Koch and Inman, though, are actually listed second on the two-deep behind Ogletree and Maurice Covington (#80) respectively. Covington is a senior and we probably will not see very much from him that we haven’t already. He’ll be steady, and the numbers should rise from last year since he missed four games with a broken hand, but if there’s going to be a real breakthrough in the receiving corps, it likely will be from a lesser-known quantity. We’ve seen what Covington can do, and he’s not a game-breaker.
This is not to forget about Staton Jobe (#22). Jobe walked on to the team last year and walked his way right on to the field. He caught 17 passes last year and is definitely part of the rotation, if not exactly the two-deep. Kris Burd (#18) is another to watch for. Burd impressed the coaches in the offseason and we should expect to see them find a way to get him on the field this year. In a three-receiver set, Burd would be second on the depth chart behind Koch, in the slot.
What’s going to have to happen for the wide receivers to make a real impression on the offense is that someone will have to show they can consistently get open. Ogletree alone will make this offense more receiver-oriented than last year; 2007 was an anomaly even for Groh. He has the skills to beat single coverage, which means he’ll probably be seeing consistent doubles probably as soon as Game Number One. When that happens, someone - anyone, anyone at all - will need to show they can get open on the other side and keep the defenses honest. If they do it will make the offense exponentially better.
Rating: 2 out of 5, but with enough potential and depth to go as high as 4 by season’s end if all works out just right.
TIGHT ENDS
The moneymaker. My first year as a UVA fan was 2000, when Billy Baber was catching passes from Dan Ellis. Since then the only years in which a UVA tight end was not drafted into the NFL were the years when none of them were seniors. The player du jour at the position this year is John Phillips (#85), who caught 17 balls in 2007. Many offenses don’t even use their first tight end that much let alone their third. Little needs to be said - he proved dependable last year and will, as usual, be a big part of the offense this year. Behind him on the depth chart is Joe Torchia (#83). Torchia saw the field in goal-line situations last year when Groh felt like three or four tight ends would make a good blocking formation. No reason to believe that Torchia won’t simply ride the TE conveyor belt and make himself more than useful in the offense this year. Andrew Devlin (#87) will likely jump into Torchia’s old role.
Rating: 4 out of 5. The default setting for Al Groh tight ends. I’m convinced he could find a way to make Muggsy Bogues a good player at this position.
OFFENSIVE LINE
This is the lineup that will take the field against USC: Eugene Monroe (#75) and Will Barker (#61) are the tackles. This is the part of the line that’s in great shape, as long as Barker doesn’t take any more late-late-late night trips to the cooler at certain downtown bars. Both have loads of starting experience, and Monroe was Rivals’ #3 overall recruit in 2005 and is getting that kind of hype again as he enters his senior year. At guard we have Zak Stair (#76) on the left side and B.J. Cabbell (#65) on the right, and Jack Shields (#64) is the starting center. So what we have is progressively less and less experience as you move inward; Stair and Cabbell have seen the field mostly as part of the kick protection team, and Shields has played in exactly one game his whole career.
The backups are mostly freshman, so, ouch. Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that. The only one who isn’t is the backup RG, Isaac Cain (#78) and he’s got just as much experience as Shields does. Stuck back there somewhere is junior Patrick Slebonick, who has just as much experience as Shields and Cain. (See a trend here? The “one game” here is Pittsburgh for all three. You got it – scrub time in a blowout.) Slebonick, though, doesn’t appear in the two-deep thanks to true freshman Austin Pasztor (#63) who’s going to see his share of the field this year. Pasztor is listed as the backup to Zak Stair.
Rating: 3 out of 5. I’m actually pretty bullish on this group. The tackles are very good. The rest of the line is woefully inexperienced, but I think Dave Borbely has that covered. Branden Albert went from a middling three-star recruit to a top-ten pick in the NFL draft under Borbely’s tutelage. His awesomely massive mustache alone is worth some confidence points, and I think he’ll have this group ready to go.
KICKER
Yannick Reyering (#10) will be the kicker for at least the first game this year, having won the camp competition. Yannick Reyering is a former UVA soccer player; Yannick Reyering walked on to the football team after his soccer eligibility expired and now Yannick Reyering is the starter. If Groh had said, screw it, whoever has the coolest name gets to be the kicker, Yannick Reyering would still have won, hands down. But his backup would have been Zach Mendez-Zfass.
Rating: 2 out of 5. The guy is used to aiming for a much much bigger target with only one guy trying to block. He's done nicely in practice, especially for a German dude who not that long ago knew as much about football American-style as you do about Sepak Takraw. But games are another thing entirely. Keeping fingers crossed.
FRESHMEN ON THE FIELD
G Austin Pasztor (true)
WR Kris Burd (redshirt)
TE Andrew Devlin (redshirt)
IN A NUTSHELL
Forget quarterback. Lalich will probably get most of the starts and most of the snaps this year. And you can probably peg how good he’ll be – simply expect a natural progression from last year’s ups and downs, and don’t bet on a sudden out-of-nowhere banner season. The offense is going to hinge on two things: the interior linemen, and every wide receiver except for Kevin Ogletree. If Stair, Shields, and Cabbell are at least adequate, the running game will go places. Places like the end zone. The receivers need to take pressure off of Ogletree. He’s gonna get double-teamed all the damn time until somebody makes the defense pay for doing so. Phillips doesn’t count, he’s a tight end and therefore will be busy showing someone else’s defensive coordinator that linebackers can’t be trusted in pass coverage. It’s the safeties that have to stay off of Ogletree if he’s going to be any kind of a big-play threat at all, and they’re just going to blanket him if they know that whoever else is across from him can’t shake the single cornerback coverage.
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
The Poll
Wide receivers are not The Poll, but here you go anyway. First, a piece on former walk-on receiver Cary Koch. Koch, as you probably know, is our resident Katrina refugee: specifically, he is a transfer from Tulane, which dropped his major following the hurricane. I like this article because it speaks to how walk-ons are treated in our program: very well. Koch, Staton Jobe, and Hall Simmons have earned themselves schollies this year after walking on. Not under-talented, just under-evaluated; those are Groh's own words, and I think the program benefits greatly from that attitude.
Speaking of benefitting greatly, here's some fluff on another guy we can really use this year: Kevin Ogletree. Since arriving on Grounds as a wide-eyed first-year, I can honestly say I have not been treated to spectacular wide receiver play from the football team. Billy McMullen is the only one that us Wahoos could really get excited over. Now the return of Ogletree to the team has most fans thrilled that the offense may once again involve the ball traveling more than five yards through the air. Not that Groh has ever been a big fan of the old hey-why-not fly pattern on first and 10, but Ogletree brings a position back to the offense that nobody really noticed last year.
OK. The Poll. First, a word on methodology. Guidance has been handed down from On High regarding how the dungeonmaster would like us to vote, and it's located here. There is only one ironclad rule, which boils down to: No funny stuff. Meaning, no look-at-me voting, no designer polls to prove a point. So, even though this is the only Virginia blog participating, that means you won't see me voting UVA #1 just because, nor will I even be including UVA just because.
(That thing about this being the only Virginia blog in the poll? Pretty significant, by the way, as it's essentially the primary reason your humble blogger even has a seat at the adult table.)
So, how is this poll going to shake out over the season? The rules that this pollster will follow are listed. Consider them bylaws, almost.
1. The first three polls of the season are the only "predictive" polls. There isn't a body of work that's big enough to judge the teams on until they've all played about three games. The first couple weeks of the season is when I'll allow (mis)conceptions to have a much greater role in shaping my judgment than what has actually happened on the field.
2. The Week 3 poll will shift almost exclusively to "resume" voting. For reference, this year, Saturday #3 is September 13. And yes, this means teams that had a bye week in the first couple weeks will be somewhat penalized. Doesn't matter - if they're any good, they'll catch up. Why Week 3? I point to last season at Michigan. After the third game (in which they demolished Notre Dame after two galactically embarrassing losses) was when people started to realize that, OK, the Wolverines are not going to be that bad, but yes, the Irish really are. After three games, I don't care if you're Florida International, if you're 3-0, you're probably one of the top 25 teams in the country. (Actually, especially FIU, as it means they'll have knocked off Kansas, Iowa, and USF.)
After three games is also a perfect time to shift gears to resume voting, because that is, for most teams, the time of transition from the non-conference slate to the conference schedule.
3. All undefeated teams that have won at least 7 games will be ranked higher than any team with a loss. This goes directly against the cautionary Hawaii tale explicitly pointed out in the philosophy, but the cautionary Hawaii tale goes against my notion that undefeatedness deserves to be rewarded. If you've played a majority of your schedule and not lost, that is worth something. The truth is, Hawaii aside, most teams that "don't deserve" a ranking that high will prove that by season's end. College football's like that. Somebody's gunning for you. In fact, they all are, if you draw attention to yourself by refusing to lose. So staying on that perch gets harder and harder.
Yes, this may potentially result in a precipitous rise in some WAC or ConfUSA team's ranking. You may see somebody go from #17 to #6 in one week because of this rule. Again though: if they don't deserve it, they'll show it. More specifically, someone will expose it.
4. After Week 8, no team that is leading its conference or division will be placed lower than a team in the same conference that is not. Why Week 8? Due to byes, most teams will not play 7 games in 7 weeks. Week 8 is when most teams will have played A) 7 games and B) 4 conference games, which in most conferences is half the schedule. Saturday #8 this year is October 18.
Again, this is resume voting by this time, and not predictive. I don't really care if a team has the monster half of its schedule coming up and is likely to drop. That's not the point. The poll is a snapshot of what we're looking at now, not some Frankensteinish hybrid of what we see now plus what we think we'll see in the future. I don't use tiebreakers to determine who's on top. If two or more teams are tied, as is likely that early, then I get to just pick which one I think has done better; however, chances are pretty good that if one has a better nonconference record than the other, or has, you know, actually beaten the other, then that team will be ranked higher.
What this doesn't mean is that all conference leaders will line up for the top spots. Conference leaders will be placed where they belong, not #5 because they lead the fifth-best conference. But no team from their same conference will be above them.
5. If two teams have equal records and have played each other, the winning team is ranked higher. Should go without saying, really, but there may be instances where strength of schedule could dictate otherwise. In this case strength of schedule will be ignored.
6. Likewise, two teams with the same record, but not having played each other, will be ranked according to how they've fared against common opponents. This seems logical, no?
That's it. Sometimes these rules may come in conflict with one another. They're ranked roughly in order of precedence, though. In most cases, they won't apply, and wins and losses combined with strength of schedule will be the primary factors.
To make this preseason list, I did not apply these rules to the 2007 season, in case you're wondering. Too much graduation, too much of people getting kicked off teams - they're no longer valid after a full offseason. What methodology got applied here, that is simple. I didn't Phil Steele-ize this stuff, agonizingly and painstakingly weigh each variable, compare starting lineups, and pore through stats. Instead, I looked at the various rankings available, weighed them against each other a little bit, and basically just decided for myself whether too much (or not enough) Kool-Aid has been drunk regarding particular teams. And a little bit of a bump upwards in some cases for being the best team in a conference. Maybe Texas is better than Clemson - they probably are - but leading a conference is the difference between watching the selection show to find out who your opponent will be and watching it to find out if you're in at all.
The Poll, then. The very first FOV poll. It's what I will submit on my own behalf unless there's convincing howling that I've gooned this up.
1. Ohio State
2. USC
3. Georgia
4. Florida
5. Oklahoma
6. Clemson
7. Missouri
8. Texas
9. Arizona State
10. LSU
11. West Virginia
12. Wisconsin
13. Kansas
14. Virginia Tech
15. BYU
16. Texas Tech
17. Auburn
18. Tennessee
19. Wake Forest
20. Oregon
21. Illinois
22. Fresno State
23. South Florida
24. Michigan
25. North Carolina
Yes, North Carolina at #25. It even struck me as odd - "what am I doing?" thought I. Then I said, you know what? Having finished their season preview, and having done some of the work on the rest of the ACC, even those that haven't posted, I couldn't convince myself that UNC would lose to those teams I left off the list.
#26, for those interested, would be a fairly interesting looking Cincinnati team.
Speaking of benefitting greatly, here's some fluff on another guy we can really use this year: Kevin Ogletree. Since arriving on Grounds as a wide-eyed first-year, I can honestly say I have not been treated to spectacular wide receiver play from the football team. Billy McMullen is the only one that us Wahoos could really get excited over. Now the return of Ogletree to the team has most fans thrilled that the offense may once again involve the ball traveling more than five yards through the air. Not that Groh has ever been a big fan of the old hey-why-not fly pattern on first and 10, but Ogletree brings a position back to the offense that nobody really noticed last year.
OK. The Poll. First, a word on methodology. Guidance has been handed down from On High regarding how the dungeonmaster would like us to vote, and it's located here. There is only one ironclad rule, which boils down to: No funny stuff. Meaning, no look-at-me voting, no designer polls to prove a point. So, even though this is the only Virginia blog participating, that means you won't see me voting UVA #1 just because, nor will I even be including UVA just because.
(That thing about this being the only Virginia blog in the poll? Pretty significant, by the way, as it's essentially the primary reason your humble blogger even has a seat at the adult table.)
So, how is this poll going to shake out over the season? The rules that this pollster will follow are listed. Consider them bylaws, almost.
1. The first three polls of the season are the only "predictive" polls. There isn't a body of work that's big enough to judge the teams on until they've all played about three games. The first couple weeks of the season is when I'll allow (mis)conceptions to have a much greater role in shaping my judgment than what has actually happened on the field.
2. The Week 3 poll will shift almost exclusively to "resume" voting. For reference, this year, Saturday #3 is September 13. And yes, this means teams that had a bye week in the first couple weeks will be somewhat penalized. Doesn't matter - if they're any good, they'll catch up. Why Week 3? I point to last season at Michigan. After the third game (in which they demolished Notre Dame after two galactically embarrassing losses) was when people started to realize that, OK, the Wolverines are not going to be that bad, but yes, the Irish really are. After three games, I don't care if you're Florida International, if you're 3-0, you're probably one of the top 25 teams in the country. (Actually, especially FIU, as it means they'll have knocked off Kansas, Iowa, and USF.)
After three games is also a perfect time to shift gears to resume voting, because that is, for most teams, the time of transition from the non-conference slate to the conference schedule.
3. All undefeated teams that have won at least 7 games will be ranked higher than any team with a loss. This goes directly against the cautionary Hawaii tale explicitly pointed out in the philosophy, but the cautionary Hawaii tale goes against my notion that undefeatedness deserves to be rewarded. If you've played a majority of your schedule and not lost, that is worth something. The truth is, Hawaii aside, most teams that "don't deserve" a ranking that high will prove that by season's end. College football's like that. Somebody's gunning for you. In fact, they all are, if you draw attention to yourself by refusing to lose. So staying on that perch gets harder and harder.
Yes, this may potentially result in a precipitous rise in some WAC or ConfUSA team's ranking. You may see somebody go from #17 to #6 in one week because of this rule. Again though: if they don't deserve it, they'll show it. More specifically, someone will expose it.
4. After Week 8, no team that is leading its conference or division will be placed lower than a team in the same conference that is not. Why Week 8? Due to byes, most teams will not play 7 games in 7 weeks. Week 8 is when most teams will have played A) 7 games and B) 4 conference games, which in most conferences is half the schedule. Saturday #8 this year is October 18.
Again, this is resume voting by this time, and not predictive. I don't really care if a team has the monster half of its schedule coming up and is likely to drop. That's not the point. The poll is a snapshot of what we're looking at now, not some Frankensteinish hybrid of what we see now plus what we think we'll see in the future. I don't use tiebreakers to determine who's on top. If two or more teams are tied, as is likely that early, then I get to just pick which one I think has done better; however, chances are pretty good that if one has a better nonconference record than the other, or has, you know, actually beaten the other, then that team will be ranked higher.
What this doesn't mean is that all conference leaders will line up for the top spots. Conference leaders will be placed where they belong, not #5 because they lead the fifth-best conference. But no team from their same conference will be above them.
5. If two teams have equal records and have played each other, the winning team is ranked higher. Should go without saying, really, but there may be instances where strength of schedule could dictate otherwise. In this case strength of schedule will be ignored.
6. Likewise, two teams with the same record, but not having played each other, will be ranked according to how they've fared against common opponents. This seems logical, no?
That's it. Sometimes these rules may come in conflict with one another. They're ranked roughly in order of precedence, though. In most cases, they won't apply, and wins and losses combined with strength of schedule will be the primary factors.
To make this preseason list, I did not apply these rules to the 2007 season, in case you're wondering. Too much graduation, too much of people getting kicked off teams - they're no longer valid after a full offseason. What methodology got applied here, that is simple. I didn't Phil Steele-ize this stuff, agonizingly and painstakingly weigh each variable, compare starting lineups, and pore through stats. Instead, I looked at the various rankings available, weighed them against each other a little bit, and basically just decided for myself whether too much (or not enough) Kool-Aid has been drunk regarding particular teams. And a little bit of a bump upwards in some cases for being the best team in a conference. Maybe Texas is better than Clemson - they probably are - but leading a conference is the difference between watching the selection show to find out who your opponent will be and watching it to find out if you're in at all.
The Poll, then. The very first FOV poll. It's what I will submit on my own behalf unless there's convincing howling that I've gooned this up.
1. Ohio State
2. USC
3. Georgia
4. Florida
5. Oklahoma
6. Clemson
7. Missouri
8. Texas
9. Arizona State
10. LSU
11. West Virginia
12. Wisconsin
13. Kansas
14. Virginia Tech
15. BYU
16. Texas Tech
17. Auburn
18. Tennessee
19. Wake Forest
20. Oregon
21. Illinois
22. Fresno State
23. South Florida
24. Michigan
25. North Carolina
Yes, North Carolina at #25. It even struck me as odd - "what am I doing?" thought I. Then I said, you know what? Having finished their season preview, and having done some of the work on the rest of the ACC, even those that haven't posted, I couldn't convince myself that UNC would lose to those teams I left off the list.
#26, for those interested, would be a fairly interesting looking Cincinnati team.
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