game preview: Miami

Date/Time: Saturday, November 7; 3:00

TV: RSN/ESPN3

Record against the Canes: 6-6

Last meeting: UVA 30, Miami 13; 11/22/14, Charlottesville

Last weekend: UVA 27, GT 21; Miami 30, Duke 27

Line: Miami by 7

Last week I realized: I was only 6/7ths right on what this football season feels like.  Sunday through Friday, I'm pining for basketball season.  I want it now.  Saturdays....well, UVA botched yet another onside kick last week and the stream of four-letter words that involuntarily exited my mouth were all the proof I needed that on game day, it still matters.

UVA catches a second straight team coming off an emotional win, and one even more in the spotlight than the last one.  If you believe in football psychology, and yeah, it's not foolproof but there's something to it, then another favorable matchup awaits.  Interestingly, disaster though Mike London's tenure has been, the dude owns Miami, with a 4-1 record against the Canes.

-- UVA run offense vs. Miami run defense

Top backs:
Taquan Mizzell: 104 carries, 446 yards, 4.3 ypc, 2 TDs
Daniel Hamm: 46 carries, 211 yards, 4.6 ypc, 1 TD

UVA offense:
138.88 yards/game, 3.94 yards/attempt
92nd of 128 (national); 9th of 14 (ACC)

Miami defense:
200.25 yards/game, 5.22 yards/attempt
113th of 128 (national); 14th of 14 (ACC)

Fun fact: Six of the top seven run defenses in the ACC are Atlantic teams.  The other Atlantic team is 8th.  In other words, the bottom six run defenses all reside in the Coastal.  UVA is 11th, and this week ends a three-game stretch against the only worse teams in the rankings.  It so happens Miami is the worst of the worst.

This isn't from a suspect game here and there.  The Canes are legitimately horrible at stopping the run.  The Clemson game - the last straw for Al Golden - was a total bloodbath.  Clemson ran the ball 63 times and piled up 416 yards.  Gaudy numbers like that abound.  FSU's Dalvin Cook by himself racked up 222 yards.  It doesn't matter whether Miami won the game or lost it; FBS opponents have moved the ball on the ground, and the good ones have done whatever they want.

Up front, Miami has some occasional playmakers in DEs Trent Harris and Al-Quadin Muhammad, and DT Ufomba Kamalu is a solid space-eater as well.  But the back end of the defense is porous and often out of position.  And worse yet for Miami was the loss of LB Raphael Kirby to a knee injury.  Kirby is the Canes' second-leading tackler even after missing the Duke game, and might still be after this weekend, too, unless Harris has a really big day.

With improved play from a more cohesive offensive line, this is a matchup that actually swings in the Hoos' favor.  Amazing, but true.  Taquan Mizzell has shown he can hit a hole pretty darn quickly when the hole is there, and Daniel Hamm has carried the ball enough now to show that the vision he displayed in his VMI debut last year wasn't just because VMI.  These are backs that can't do much without help, but a little space goes a long way with them.  They should have more than a little space against Miami.

-- UVA pass offense vs. Miami pass defense

Quarterback:
Matt Johns: 151/249, 60.6%; 1,755 yards, 13 TDs, 13 INTs; 7.05 ypa, 126.6 rating

Top receivers:
Taquan Mizzell: 46 rec., 499 yards, 3 TDs
Canaan Severin: 37 rec., 513 yards, 4 TDs
T.J. Thorpe: 12 rec., 207 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
223.6 yards/game, 6.9 yards/attempt
79th of 128 (national); 10th of 14 (ACC)

Miami defense:
210.1 yards/game, 6.5 yards/attempt
41st of 128 (national); 7th of 14 (ACC)

Miami lacks a true terrorizing playmaker defensive end - or tackle, for that matter - in the pass rush.  Al-Quadin Muhammad has 3 sacks, just a little more than what you'd expect just by sending any old body out there, and that leads the team.  What they do have is 12 guys with at least half a sack.  So while Matt Johns won't have to devote time always knowing where so-and-so is, he will have to keep his head on a swivel.

Where Miami is dangerous is the secondary.  Artie Burns has five picks, Rayshawn Jenkins has three, and Corn Elder, the lucky guy with the ball at the end of the Duke game, has broken up nine passes.  Johns is kind of gunslingery when given the chance, but his skills in that regard are inconsistent.  An interception or two in this game is almost guaranteed.

So I hate to say it, but the short passing game adored by Steve Fairchild is the way to go here.  Miami won't get any pressure at all if the drops are short and the ball is out quick, and since our passing game is sort of a quasi-run game anyway, you might as well attack the opponent where they're weakest.  For UVA to get the ball rolling and sustain some drives, Mizzell will have to get half a zillion touches, and the WRs targeted with great care.

-- Miami run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Joseph Yearby: 126 carries, 641 yards, 5.1 ypc, 5 TDs
Mark Walton: 74 carries, 284 yards, 3.8 ypc, 5 TDs

Miami offense:
123.75 yards/game, 3.79 yards/attempt
103rd of 128 (national); 11th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
163.13 yards/game, 4.55 yards/attempt
81st of 128 (national); 11th of 14 (ACC)

Miami's running back situation is pretty simple: Joseph Yearby is the unquestioned starter, Mark Walton gives him regular breaks.  Trayone Gray comes in at the end of blowouts, and that's about the extent of it.  Miami has tried one tricky thing all year - Stacy Coley on an end-around against VT.

Yearby is easily the better back, but, fact is, most of his best work was done early this year.  Two-thirds of his yards came in the first four games of the year; the latter four, with no decrease in workload, he's averaged less than 3.2 yards a carry.  Walton is sputtering, too; his workload has markedly decreased, and most of his game-high carries are for single-digit yardage.

Neither Yearby nor Walton is really a home-run hitter, in fact.  Miami's run offense the last four games is basically the same minimally-functional assault UVA has featured most of the year.  It's a pretty vanilla attack, too, after last week's yearly dose of head games.  Last week offered some hope; UVA has done a respectable job holding down the middle against opposing run games, because Micah Kiser has been very much up to the task.  Last week was all about the edges, and UVA decisively won the battle there.  In retrospect, Trent Corney was a how-did-I-not-realize-this star of the game.  GT doesn't block, they just try to chop you down - which is one thing Corney is perfectly built to defeat.  If Corney could translate that to fighting off regular blocks, Miami would be in for a long day.  As it is, they'll probably have some stretches of success and some 3rd-and-9s.

-- Miami pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Brad Kaaya: 140/229, 61.1%; 1,846 yards, 10 TDs, 2 INTs; 8.06 ypa, 141.5 rating

Top receivers:
Rashawn Scott: 37 rec., 502 yards, 4 TDs
Herb Waters: 27 rec., 473 yards, 1 TD
Stacy Coley: 26 rec., 354 yards, 2 TDs

Miami offense:
276.3 yards/game, 7.7 yards/attempt
45th of 128 (national); 5th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
248.8 yards/game, 8.1 yards/attempt
109th of 128 (national); 13th of 14 (ACC)

It's still a mystery whether Brad Kaaya will return from a concussion he suffered against Clemson.  (Though, it's looking more likely that he will.)  His replacement, Malik Rosier, played horribly in relief in that game, but with a week of prep, Rosier was worlds more effective against Duke.  Still, Miami is better off with Kaaya under center.  Kaaya has only thrown two picks all year and was on pace to threaten the 4,000-yard mark for the season, an excellent build on his terrific debut season last year.

UVA will likely have a lot of trouble with Miami's deep stable of receivers.  Both quarterbacks know how to spread the ball around, and the Miami receivers are capable of stretching out the field and going for big chunk plays.  Miami leads the conference in long passing plays of >10 and >20 yards.  They don't go for the whole field at once off of a touchback, but they don't need to because they can get there in a handful of plays anyway, if your coverage is less than effective.

Combine that with excellent quarterback protection, and this is a very dangerous aspect of the game for UVA, which hasn't shown the ability to deal with too much at one time in the passing game.  Even GT burned them for 251 yards and two touchdowns, and that's a simple passing game to defend if you don't get sucked too close to the line of scrimmage.  Miami will make things very difficult, and probably pick up 300+ yards through the air.

-- Favorability ratings

Run offense: 6.5
Pass offense: 4
Run defense: 4
Pass defense: 2

Average: 4.13

-- Outlook

Lot of competing trends here to make this one a difficult game to call.  On the one hand, Mike London has typically had Miami's number - the one team he's consistently beaten.  In fact, until last week, Miami was the only FBS team he'd beaten more than once.  (He's now 2-4 against Georgia Tech, with the other win coming in 2011.)  And Miami is coming off a crazy-ass, emotional win, just as with GT, and this is the least intimidating road environment in all of Power 5 football.

On the other hand, UVA carries a 13-game losing streak to Florida with them, and it's entirely possible Larry Scott has lit a fire under Miami's asses that lasts longer than one week.  Miami's run defense is horrible, but UVA isn't going to Clemson up the score on them regardless, and there's a semi-decent chance the Canes could pile up 400 passing yards.

So which is it - loss or win?  Because UVA football is obnoxious like this, I choose the option that causes the most chaos, consternation, and general uproar among the fanbase: a win.  Put this team at 4-5, and some people will wonder if this team can keep the comeback trail going all the way to a bowl.  Some will declare it's just the usual Charlie Brown and Lucy routine.  Some will chew their fingernails down to the knuckle in fear that too much winning will inspire the front office to extend the coach.  All are legitimate takes.  A loss is simpler - you just remind yourself that the next basketball game is sooner than the next football game.  A win makes a mess, and we still can't have nice things, so a mess it is.

Final score: UVA 28, Miami 21

-- Rest of the ACC

Byes: Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Duke @ North Carolina - 12:00 - We're used to it being for basketball supremacy, but now it has the Coastal Conference riding on it too.

Pittsburgh vs. Notre Dame - 12:00 - Possibly the best unranked team in the country, Pitt will likely shed that label one way or the other here.

Syracuse @ Louisville - 12:30 - This week we're chock full of games that would be better hoops contests.

NC State @ Boston College - 12:30 - The Pack are looking to get bowl eligible - and if they don't do it here, it's not a stretch to say they might never get there.

Florida State @ Clemson - 3:30 - I've been bitching about this for years and FINALLY they schedule this game for November.  This is Clemson's last legitimate regular season hurdle between them and an undefeated season.

let the games begin

PHEW.  I was planning on writing about four paragraphs on how this basketball team will lose at some point and we should enjoy this undefeated stuff to the fullest while it lasts but understand that it's coming to an end eventually and that's OK.  Miami drove home the point for me pretty well, though.

It's a lesson that now doesn't have to be learned the hard way, because UVA out-gutted and out-gunned the Hurricanes after Miami ran out of ammo.  I had forgotten, for a second there, that going on the road in the ACC is never to be taken for granted.  Shame.  Won't make that mistake again.  At least not this year.

For at least a little while longer, though, we still get to enjoy the goose egg in the one place you really want to see it.  It's not to be sneezed at; the Hoos survived on a night when half the remaining undefeated teams in the country took a loss.  That leaves just UVA, Duke, and Kentucky.  The SEC is a putz league, the weakest of the Power 5 and probably worse than the Big East as well, and very likely to leave UK unblemished for a good long time.  But I sort of hope Duke stays unbeaten til January 31 (and obviously, I hope we do too) to set up a matchup for the ages.

-- Marial Shayok deserves a ton of credit.  Forced into crunch-time minutes when Brogdon fouled out, his defense made a huge difference.  Not just in the two blocks that he had after that point; he also did a masterful job limiting Angel Rodriguez.  I suspect having much fresher legs had a lot to do with it; nevertheless, it was a huge game for him.  Perrantes and Anderson hit the shots and played 45 minutes apiece, and Atkins, very quietly, had a terrific game too.  But if defense comes first, Shayok gets the first nod.

-- Speaking of fresher legs, Mike Curtis certainly gets a nod for that game too.  "They look tired all of a sudden," I thought as Miami brought up the ball; the announcers were all over it at the same time.

-- One way to tell your team has arrived?  Besides all the other really obvious ones, I mean.  When the announcers assume you have a "senior-laden team" even when you don't.  Sorry, Shane Battier, only one senior here - but they sure do play like they were, don't they?

-- Yes, that was a foul on Justin Anderson at the end there.  But also, yes, he was fouled pretty blatantly in OT, too.  The announcers made a thing about him kicking his legs out, which was stupid because a flying defender landed on his arm.

-- Against Davidson, the defense gave up some easy layups, and on those plays it was perfectly highlighted why Tony's post defense philosophy is "ball-me-man."  The Wildcat post men managed to seal out their defender and prevent any help, which is poison to the pack-line defense; any time you see plays like that, the defender is out of position.  Most man defenses emphasize fighting for position in the post and having defenders try and prevent the opposing bigs from gaining position too close to the rim.  Tony doesn't much care where the opposing bigs post up - as long as the defenders are in the right position, they can deny entry passes, help on drives (and usually stop them before they start), switch to the other side to help a helper, and throw a quick double-team.

-- ESPN has been spreading the UVA love far and wide these past couple weeks.  Anthony Gill and Justin Anderson on the Wooden Watch.**  A #1 seed in bracketology.  Articles about how awesome the offense is and how the rest of the ACC will give UVA a run for its money.  Notice how that last one is not the other way around.  UVA is the hunted.

Why should we care what the WWL thinks?  Because perception is reality in the recruiting world.  The ultimate goal is not to be able to win the battle of the recruiting rankings (even though, for now, UVA sits atop the 24/7 rankings after winning the commitment of Sacha Killeya-Jones).  The ultimate goal is for Tony to be able to walk into any gym in the country, say, "I want that guy right there," and be at the top of that guy's list immediately.

That Medcalf article, by the way, the second one linked, I feel like it's part of a slightly disturbing trend, which is to forget that Louisville is a major contender just because they lost to Kentucky.  I would not like to see that team unleash its considerable athletic talent upon a perception of being disrespected.  It's not Duke and UVA and everyone else; it's Duke, UVA, Louisville, and maybe UNC if they get their shit together, and if they don't, Notre Dame.

**Unless someone else totally runs away with the award, Jahlil Okafor will win because he wears the tiebreaker on his chest.  But some All-American selections are not out of the question.

-- You know how I said we should drop Maryland from our schedules and add Georgetown just for spite, because Maryland won't play Georgetown?  Bwa-ha-ha the lacrosse schedulers listened.  Maryland is no more, and UVA will host the Hoyas as the final game of the season.

Actually, it's best looked at like this: Maryland is not replaced on the schedule.  There are only 13 games instead of last year's 14, but that's to be expected because the ACC was temporarily larger last year.  Georgetown - which hasn't been good at all lately - is Bellarmine's replacement, and UVA also dropped longtime OOC opponent Mount St. Mary's in favor of the recently-not-shitty St. Joseph's Hawks.  St. Joe's was once a laughingstock and is now very middle-of-the-road.  I'd still say, it's an easier schedule than last year, a bit.

That's OK, I still prefer to think we replaced Maryland with Georgetown, and if Georgetown had a football team of any consequence I'd start the Put-Them-In-The-ACC bandwagon in a hot minute.

-- One thing that will sting and make that road harder is the loss of Greg Danseglio to Maryland.  All the more reason to be glad they're gone, I suppose; Danseglio was half of a veteran long-pole duo that would've formed the core of the defense.  Now it's Tanner Scales and inexperience.  UVA also looks to be missing their one over-.500 face-off guy from last year, Mick Parks; knee surgery is the message-board chatter.  This is a very young team this year and the leading candidate to finish 5 of 5 in the ACC.

-- Speaking of which, sharp-eyed watchers noticed this earlier, I didn't but I think it's fair to be excused because I don't think the ACC even bothered to announce it - placing 5th of 5 in the conference this year earns you a trip to the tournament in Philly anyway, only you'll be playing Penn.  Creative.  And no doubt an easy sell to Penn - no travel expenses and an RPI-booster against an ACC team that you'll have a decent shot at beating.

-- I finally got off my ass and finished a game highlight, and there's another one on the way very shortly.  I randomly picked last year's Maryland game off the considerable backlog.  It's linked in the video library there.  I don't think that backlog will be fully addressed til the summer, but I'm settling into a routine of working on them and I can at least get you new stuff on a steady basis.

a billion dollars and a pony

Thank you to all the thoughtful people who emailed or commented to inquire whether I did, in fact, wake one billion dollars richer this morning.  No.  And no adorable little Shetland adorns my doorstep, either.  But I have my THUNDERDOME game, and I'll happily settle for that.

The London era has been sadly lacking in decisive ass-beatings of ACC opponents.  I'd call this the third, following a 31-13 drubbing of 2-7 Maryland in 2011 and a 33-6 pasting of NC State in 2012.  What it hasn't seemed to lack is wins over Miami.  If not being able to beat Duke, UNC, and VT is a major irritant for UVA fans in the London era, not beating UVA must be getting tiresome for Miami fans in the Al Golden days.

Having become more than used to second half collapses in both wins and losses this year, probably the best part of yesterday was the realization that another one wasn't on the way.  Couldn't even pinpoint when that was, but the Hoos kept scoring and Miami kept not scoring, and I'm guessing the Miami fans watching the game gave up on a Miami comeback long before the UVA fans did.  If UVA's red-zone offense was halfway decent - they scored more field goals than TDs once inside the 20, and Ian Frye's longest kick was from a line of scrimmage at the 5 - this would've looked more like the woodshedding that it was.

So the world turns again.  Only college football has the ability to do that in one short game.  48 hours ago it crossed nobody's mind at all to ask which bowl game we might go to, because how silly.  Now I've found myself considering the possibility in all seriousness.  All of which is to say nothing of who will be the coach next year.  Could one simple game change the fortunes of a career?  Or at least, extend its life support another year?  We'll see, I guess.

But, first, Tech.  Thunderdome looms.  Two teams enter, one team leaves bowl eligible.  With the combination of beating hell out of Miami and Tech's spectacularly pathetic display of offense in Winston-Salem, this looks like the most winnable VT game since basically the last time we won it.  What's surprising is how many VT fans have already conceded it.  Their offense has been godawful this year and the idea of Max Valles and Eli Harold getting their cracks at Michael Brewer makes me giggle like a schoolgirl.  Brewer's stats aren't bad, but he sure doesn't pass the eye test, either.  Let the least bad team win a trip to Shreveport.

Bullety things:

-- Canaan Severin's catch: not bad.  And a 14-point swing in the game, too.  You could see the DB get saucer eyes from 700 miles away, and he had his arms all cradled and ready for that football; had it gotten there, he'd have been five yards downfield with a full head of steam before anyone else could put on the brakes to go that way.  I'm convinced it was ten seconds from being 14-3.  Instead it was a 10-7 lead that was 30-7 before Miami found the scoreboard again.

-- Alright, the goose thing was funny, but for my money the real humor was the announcers' inability to speak for laughing so hard.  Flat-out lost it is what they did.

-- I think there were more Miami fans in Scott Stadium than there would've been for a Miami home game.

-- No, I'm not giving out a free pass for 12 men on the field for the punt just because we won.  This is the sort of thing that explains why I don't support keeping London even if we finish this season 7-6.  That shit happens all the damn time.  London could fix that if he wanted to.  He just has to properly incentivize Larry Lewis to do it.  But it's clearly not a priority.  Attention to detail still escapes this coaching staff.

-- Admit it: when you watched the first half clock tick down with no timeout being called, "here we go again" was in your brain in neon flashing lights.  But I suspect that one was more on the refs.  London was visibly livid.  And while you really damn well ought to score a touchdown when you're that close to the end zone, I'll say this: Passing on third down was the right call.  Out of timeouts, a failed run play would've meant going to the locker room empty handed.

-- I've been critical, we've all been critical, of Taquan Mizzell, so credit belongs where credit is due for this one: Mizzell ran really well yesterday.  And Khalek Shepherd did a nice job as the workhorse when Parks went out of the game.  He doesn't have the beef to be a piledriver, but he ran awfully damn hard.

-- Bowl talk in all seriousness: The ACC splits up its bowls into four groups.  The first group is three or four bowls, depending, believe it or not, on whether the Big Ten puts a team into the Orange Bowl.  (If they do, an ACC team goes to the Citrus Bowl.)  We don't have to worry about this.  The second group is called Tier 1, a group of four bowls (ex-Tire, Sun, Pinstripe, and either Music City or ex-Gator) that don't have a pecking order and just have to figure it out amongst themselves who they'll invite.  If UVA wins this Friday, there's a very, very slim chance we could slide into one of those, but it'd be unlikely.

The next group is Tier II: the Military, Independence, and ex-Motor City, in that order.  A 6-6 UVA team would be 97% likely to land in one of these.  East Carolina is the clear fourth team in the AAC, which slots them right to the Military; a very safe bet in the event of a UVA win over Tech is a trip to DC to face ECU.  Next most likely, I think, is actually Detroit; this would probably happen if there's no Citrus (50/50 chance of that), and the top 7 slots get filled with FSU, Clemson, GT, Louisville, ND, Duke, and UNC.  And Pitt loses to Miami and doesn't go bowling.  BC might then be the choice of the Military; their fans are still in close enough proximity and they've had a better season.  Miami would be a natural choice for the Independence.  Detroit would be left with the Hoos.  As you can imagine, I'd be all over this.  I even have tickets already.  Won them at a Lions game.

-- Watching Frank Beamer exult over a missed short field goal that meant he didn't just lose 3-0 to the worst team in the ACC - well, the sadness of that display was immediately evident, so I wasn't surprised to see that picture more or less all over Twitterdom.  You want an image of the sorry state of VT football, that's your thousand words right there.  But in absolute fairness to the Hokies, their fanbase is livid over their 5-6 season and at least 80% of them want Beamer out the door right now - and our fanbase is looking at the same 5-6 record (except with a way worse last four years) and the majority is either supportive or at least accepting of the idea of keeping London around as a reward.  That too is a statement.

Prediction summary:

-- UVA allows at least three sacks.

-- And throws at least two picks.

-- Duke Johnson is held reasonably in check, averaging no more than 5.5 yards a carry.

-- Kaaya throws at least three passes of 30 yards or more.  Precisely zilch of these came true.  Also I picked the game's outcome as badly as possible.

Stats on the season:

20-for-54 on specifics (37%)
6-4 straight up (L)
4-4-1 ATS (L)

game preview: Miami

Date/Time: Saturday, November 22; 7:00

TV: ESPN2

Record against the Canes: 5-6

Last meeting: Miami 45, UVA 26; 11/23/13, Miami

Last weekend: UVA bye; FSU 30, Miami 26

Line: Miami by 5.5

Injury report:

Virginia:

OUT: OG Ryan Doull, C Jackson Matteo, CB Demetrious Nicholson, OT Sadiq Olanrewaju, CB Brandon Phelps, OT Jay Whitmire
DOUBTFUL: S Kelvin Rainey, CB Divante Walker
QUESTIONABLE: None
PROBABLE: DE Trent Corney, LB Mark Hall

Miami:

OUT: OL Taylor Gadbois, OL Alex Gall, PK Matt Goudis, S Rayshawn Jenkins, OL K.C. McDermott, FB Ronnie Regula, WR Rashawn Scott
DOUBTFUL: S Deon Bush
QUESTIONABLE: None
PROBABLE: None

It feels like ages since I even thought about football.  With the way things are going, I sort of liked it that way.  With only two games left, the season is right up on the brink.  There are some who think Mike London can save his job by winning the next two and going bowling; I'm not convinced of that, but I am convinced it shouldn't be that way.  My view: let's just win the next two and send London off in halfway decent style, and start over next year.  And if we lose this one, then for God's sake at least beat VT.  But, Miami first.

-- UVA run offense vs. Miami run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 165 carries, 669 yards, 4.1 ypc, 4 TDs
Khalek Shepherd: 59 carries, 253 yards, 4.3 ypc, 1 TD

UVA offense:
142.0 yards/game, 3.81 yards/attempt
94th of 128 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

Miami defense:
130.1 yards/game, 3.44 yards/attempt
20th of 128 (national), 6th of 14 (ACC)

Miami's run defense is sort of averagely good; it's not spectacular, but it gets the job done.  The unit is led by linebacker Denzel Perryman in the middle, an excellent player who's headed for an all-ACC nod of some kind.  Miami rotates three linebackers in the other two spots, which limits the numbers for those guys, but they're all quality players; in fact, second on the team in tackles (after Perryman) is Jermaine Grace, the non-starter of the group.

The D-line doesn't have any big stars on it - Anthony Chickillo tends to get more praise from announcers than a guy with three tackles per game deserves - but it's big, particularly Chickillo.  With UVA's offensive line once again looking thin as rice paper, these guys could be in for big days.  I'd worry about Chickillo as a 280-pound senior DE, but I'd also expect our line to get stacked up more often than not.  (Then again, the last time we saw Steve Fairchild he was abandoning the run game with incredible gusto, so we might not even notice.)

-- UVA pass offense vs. Miami pass defense

Quarterback:
Greyson Lambert: 122/204, 59.8%; 8 TDs, 9 INTs, 1,275 yards; 6.25 ypa

Top receivers:
Canaan Severin: 34 rec., 441 yards, 4 TDs
Taquan Mizzell: 33 rec., 190 yards, 0 TDs
Kevin Parks: 28 rec., 166 yards, 2 TDs

UVA offense:
241.5 yards/game, 6.54 yards/attempt
91st of 128 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)

Miami defense:
192.9 yards/game, 5.92 yards/attempt
14th of 128 (national), 2nd of 14 (ACC)

Matt Johns hasn't thrown a pass in two of the last three games and wasn't all that good in the third; is it safe to say we've finally settled on a quarterback?  I think so.  Maybe.  Probably.  I think.

At any rate, the story's the same: Lambert has got to stop throwing interceptions.  Hard to do against Miami.  They're very average in terms of actual INTs, but the whole defense, from front to back, gets involved in batting passes down.  Very active hands, everywhere.  And QBs have been avoiding cornerback Ladarius Gunter like the plague.

Miami also brings a very good pass rush from all corners.  The sack leader is linebacker Thurston Armbrister with five, but most of the Canes' 25 sacks are spread out among the whole defense.  It's a bad sign, seeing an inexperienced offensive line trying to protect a quarterback when they can't be entirely sure where the rush is coming from.

All this adds up to an excellent pass defense, one of the best in the country.  By doing nothing spectacularly but everything well, Miami is a top-15 defense against air assaults.  Opposing teams have at times piled up the yards, but it takes a lot of passes to get there.  UVA's short passing game ought to work out OK, but I don't expect a lot of deeper stuff to be real successful.

-- Miami run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Duke Johnson: 185 carries, 1,343 yards, 7.3 ypc, 10 TDs
Joseph Yearby: 75 carries, 455 yards, 6.1 ypc, 1 TD

Miami offense:
197.0 yards/game, 5.55 yards/attempt
14th of 128 (national), 2nd of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
118.6 yards/game, 3.22 yards/attempt
13th of 128 (national), 4th of 14 (ACC)

Duke Johnson.  He's really good.  And lest you think we'll be out of the woods if Johnson hobbles off the field, the Canes have been using Joseph Yearby to good effect as well.  He's one of those hard-to-find short guys with some built-in power, not unlike Kevin Parks but with more speed.  The Miami O-line has been opening holes all season, and Johnson blows through them pretty hard.

So nothing fancy here.  Miami just wants to line up and let Johnson beat you down, and sends Yearby in to give Johnson a break.  Johnson is one of the toughest guys to tackle in the whole league.  This area of the game, of course, is UVA's one big bright spot, so Miami will find tougher sledding than they're used to; of the three ACC defenses better against the run than UVA, the Canes have only played one, and lost badly.

-- Miami pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Brad Kaaya: 160/267, 59.9%; 22 TDs, 10 INTs, 2,403 yards; 9.00 ypa

Top receivers:
Clive Walford: 33 rec., 522 yards, 7 TDs
Duke Johnson: 25 rec., 310 yards, 2 TDs
Phillip Dorsett: 23 rec., 662 yards, 7 TDs

Miami offense:
245.4 yards/game, 8.76 yards/attempt
9th of 128 (national), 2nd of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
229.2 yards/game, 7.03 yards/attempt
67th of 128 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

Miami looked like they might be set to let transfer Jake Heaps run the offense, but they couldn't resist going with the true freshman Kaaya in the end, and it's paid off.  Kaaya has looked like a veteran this year - it helps to have such a good ground game opening things up for him, but nevertheless Miami has been able to strike deep and be very efficient overall.

Kaaya relies heavily on Clive Walford, one of the Canes' best receivers and their receptions leader, but the real star of the receiving corps is Phillip Dorsett.  With just 23 catches, Dorsett has piled up 662 yards, giving him an average of almost 29 yards a catch.  I mean holy crap.  Not the kind of player you want to be against when you have two starting cornerbacks sidelined.  Tim Harris got torched a few times earlier this year and Miami will be looking to go after him again.

For UVA, this is an area that's gotten progressively worse throughout the year, and this is not the opponent to fix that.  Johnson is also a pretty big part of the passing game (wouldn't you try and get him the ball in space, with momentum?) and I think UVA can slow that down pretty well, but the deep game is going to burn us several times.

-- Favorability ratings

Run offense: 2.5
Pass offense: 2
Run defense: 5.5
Pass defense: 2.5

Average: 3.125

-- Outlook

I can't think of any good reason to be optimistic here.  UVA is simply overmatched, and badly.  Miami's a better team than its 6-4 record; they'll probably finish 8-4 and look a lot closer to where they should be.  They had a little bit of bad luck on the schedule, having to play two very tough crossovers and losing both.  The Canes are a team with no real weaknesses.  UVA has many.  I was hoping that Miami would win last week and set themselves up for a letdown after taking down huge rival FSU, but now they'll just be pissed off after the way they lost.

-- Predictions

-- UVA allows at least three sacks.

-- And throws at least two picks.

-- Duke Johnson is held reasonably in check, averaging no more than 5.5 yards a carry.

-- Kaaya throws at least three passes of 30 yards or more.

Final score: Miami 31, UVA 10

-- Rest of the ACC

Byes: Georgia Tech, NC State

UNC 45, Duke 20 - Thursday - With that game, the ACC CG is set: FSU vs. GT.  I think I had GT last in the Coastal.  Go me.

Virginia Tech @ Wake Forest - 12:30 - I'd like for us to beat Miami and VT to lose to Wake to set up the Bowl Eligibility Bowl in Blacksburg.  I'd also like a billion dollars and a pony.

Syracuse @ Pittsburgh - 3:30 - Pitt is also seeing their bowl eligibility hanging by a thread - and has to play Miami next week.

Louisville @ Notre Dame - 3:30 - Fight for Western Division superiority in the ACC.

Boston College @ Florida State - 3:30 - Potential letdown for FSU here, but the talent gap is too big.

Clemson vs. Georgia State - 3:30 - If sanity ruled the world this kind of game would be in September and FSU would be playing Clemson this weekend.

2014 season preview: Miami Hurricanes

Schedule:

9/1: @ Louisville (Mon.)
9/6: Florida A&M
9/13: Arkansas State
9/20: @ Nebraska
9/27: Duke
10/4: @ Georgia Tech
10/11: Cincinnati
10/18: BYE
10/23: @ Virginia Tech (Thu.)
11/1: North Carolina
11/8: BYE
11/15: Florida State
11/22: @ Virginia
11/29: Pittsburgh

Skip: Boston College, Clemson, NC State, Syracuse, Wake Forest

2013 results:

Florida Atlantic: W, 34-6
Florida: W, 21-16
Savannah State: W, 77-7
South Florida: W, 49-21
Georgia Tech: W, 45-30
North Carolina: W, 27-23
Wake Forest: W, 24-21
Florida State: L, 41-14
Virginia Tech: L, 42-24
Duke: L, 48-30
Virginia: W, 45-26
Pittsburgh: W, 41-31
Louisville: L, 36-9 (RA Bowl)

Record: 9-4 (5-3); 3rd, Coastal

Projected starters:

QB: Jake Heaps (5Sr.)
RB: Duke Johnson (Jr.)
WR: Phillip Dorsett (Sr.)
WR: Stacy Coley (So.)
WR: Malcolm Lewis (rSo.)
TE: Standish Dobard (So.)
LT: Ereck Flowers (Jr.)
LG: Jon Feliciano (5Sr.)
C: Shane McDermott (5Sr.)
RG: Danny Isidora (rSo.)
RT: Trevor Darling (Fr.)

DE: Anthony Chickillo (Sr.)
DT: Olsen Pierre (Sr.)
DT: Calvin Heurtelou (Jr.)
DE: Trent Harris (Fr.)
OLB: Thurston Armbrister (Sr.)
MLB: Denzel Perryman (Sr.)
OLB: Raphael Kirby (Jr.)
CB: Tracy Howard (Jr.)
CB: Ladarius Gunter (Sr.)
S: Deon Bush (Jr.)
S: Dallas Crawford (rJr.)

K: Matt Goudis (Jr.)
P: Justin Vogel (So.)

(Italics indicate new starter.)

Coach: Al Golden, 4th season

Media prediction: 1st, Coastal

All-ACC:

2013 1st team: LB Denzel Perryman, P Pat O'Donnell
2013 2nd team: RB Duke Johnson, WR Allen Hurns, OG Brandon Linder
2013 3rd team: QB Stephen Morris
2013 HM: OT Seantrel Henderson, OG Jon Feliciano, CB Tracy Howard, S Deon Bush, PR Stacy Coley
2014 preseason: RB Duke Johnson, LB Denzel Perryman

(Italics indicate departed player.)

Al Golden is in his fourth year as coach of the Hurricanes, and it could be a big one.  Golden had them bowl-eligible in each of his first three years, although they chose to self-ban during the first two, following the Nevin Shapiro mess (which seems to have fizzled pretty spectacularly.)  Golden has improved the Canes from 6 to 7 to 9 wins, all in the regular season as they also fizzled pretty spectacularly in last year's bowl game.  This looks like an important year for Golden - if he can continue the upward trajectory (which doesn't have to necessarily mean beating nine wins) then considering Miami a rejuvenated force - albeit not quite the unstoppable powerhouse of the past - in the Coastal Conference would be unavoidable.

-- Offense

Quite a bit here is reasonably well-settled, and the Canes bring some exciting talent to the table.  RB Duke Johnson piled up 920 yards in just eight games last year, which is even more impressive than it sounds because if he'd been allowed to run wild in certain of those games (Savannah State, for example) he'd have made it easy.  Johnson looks easily like the top running back in the league; he's fast (though not an all-out home run hitter) and very hard to bring down, running powerfully with a low center of gravity.  Johnson is likely to get workhorse-level carries this year, if healthy, and should blow past the 1,000-yard mark with no trouble.

Miami also looks to be in good shape at receiver.  Phillip Dorsett had an excellent 2012 season as a sophomore, but was slowed by nagging injuries last year and slipped to just 13 catches, 45 fewer than the previous season.  But he also averaged almost 21 yards a reception.  The real excitement, though, surrounds Stacy Coley, an explosive player who made his mark returning punts last year and ran for a 73-yard touchdown, too.  The story of the electric return man who couldn't translate his skills to pass-catching is a familiar one, but Coley has a strong freshman season of 33 catches and 591 yards to build on, and looks to be on his way.  Depth is a little light in the receiving corps, but reserve Herb Waters returns (28 catches, 406 yards in 2013) and Miami also thinks redshirt sophomore Malcolm Lewis is ready for prime time.

The thing everyone's focusing on, though, is the question of who'll throw to them.  Miami was ready to hand the ball to senior Ryan Williams, who'd been patiently waiting his turn and playing respectably well in limited chances, but Williams tore his ACL.  Then, backup Kevin Olsen got suspended for the opener, reportedly for a failed drug test.  Olsen appears to have lost his chance for this season, and Miami has turned the competition over to senior journeyman Jake Heaps (who has played in the past for BYU and Kansas) and true freshman Brad Kaaya.  Kaaya has been earning rave reviews in camp for his poise and presence, but it's sometimes tempered with "for a freshman" and noted that Heaps is still ahead in this regard.  Neither has been with the Canes more than a few weeks, though, and the competition is still way up in the air.

The other main competition in camp is on the right side of the line.  The left and middle are well entrenched.  Ereck Flowers nailed down the left tackle job last season, and Jon Feliciano earned some all-ACC votes for his play at left guard; both return, as does longtime center starter Shane Mitchell.  The right side is less settled.  Danny Isidora is seen as the heir apparent at left guard, and the Canes have high hopes for him, while Alex Gall is considered versatile enough to play both guard and center and could make Isidora look over his shoulder a bit.  Right tackle is the big question spot.  Trevor Gadbois, a huge player at 6'8", 316, is the experienced contender (relatively) but he's in danger of being supplanted by a true freshman, perhaps Trevor Darling or the high-profile, heavily-offered KC McDermott.  Even with Darling sitting on top of the first fall depth chart offered up by the Canes, a lot of Canes fans think it's only a matter of time before McDermott plays his way into the job.

As with always, it's all about the quarterbacking.  Miami has some weapons in Johnson and Coley that they'll happily put up against anyone in the conference, and an experienced line for the most part.  They're not going to maximize their potential if they let the QB competition drag on, though.  If Heaps or Kaaya can separate from the other, Miami will be in great shape.  If not, they'll still be decent, but like a V6 engine running on four cylinders.

-- Defense

The defense was what held Miami back last year and prevented them from pulling out a berth in the ACCCG, and the same challenge remains.  Depth up front was a concern in 2013 and nothing's changed for 2014.  There are a couple building blocks here; end Anthony Chickillo and tackle Olsen Pierre are solid if unspectacular players.  Chickillo is the top playmaker on the front line, but he's not a holy terror.  Miami also likes to use Tyriq McCord at end in passing situations, and he led the team in sacks last year with four but did little else.  The Canes brought in juco transfer Calvin Heurtelou to shore up the defensive tackle position, and he looks like the front-runner to start next to Pierre, with Ufomba Kamalu likely to see his role increase and be the third in the rotation.  Behind those three, though, there's frightfully little experience.  Miami will probably also lean on some freshmen, particularly at DE; early enrollee Trent Harris is listed as the starter in front of McCord for now, and Chad Thomas comes in as a five-star recruit and the #2 high school DE in the country.

The defense will be led by Denzel Perryman from the middle linebacker slot.  Perryman can play outside or in, and moves back to the middle this year following the graduation of Jimmy Gaines and a season in which Perryman led the Canes in tackles with 108.  Part-time starter Thurston Armbrister also returns to man one outside slot; the other is being turned over to Raphael Kirby, who's been primarily a special-teamer before now.  Perryman is a great starting point, but the depth and experience drops off a cliff after him and Armbrister.  The second string is made up of freshmen, special-teamers, and walk-ons; of the options coming after the three starters, undersized walk-on Nantambu-Akil Fentress is the most experienced and accomplished, having made nine tackles last year.

Miami's depth in the defensive backfield took a big hit with the announcement that starting safety Rayshawn Jenkins would miss the season with an undisclosed injury.  This'll be another position where the Canes are awfully thin on experience after the starters.  Deon Bush started three games last year and was productive as the third safety, and the Canes have moved Dallas Crawford from running back to fill Jenkins's spot.  It's less dire than it sounds - Crawford is a natural safety who was moved to tailback for depth reasons, and now goes back to a position he's more comfortable with (despite the fact that he had some success on offense.)  Still, Crawford is likely to be rusty.  With so little behind these two - again, special-teamers, scout-teamers, and freshmen - one of the more experienced backup corners like Antonio Crawford might move over to bring some depth.

Last year, it was safety that looked to be in decent shape while cornerback was scary - this year, it's the opposite, as Tracy Howard forced his way into the lineup and produced four interceptions while Ladarius Gunter fought off competition to cement his starting role.  Gunter intercepted three passes and broke up nine more.  There should be some decent playable depth here, too, as Artie Burns and the aforementioned Crawford each picked off a pass while playing as reserves.

Still, overall this defense is still a rebuilding project, as Golden largely tore it down for its own good (he dismissed a few high-profile but misbehaving players from the unit) in his first year and has been remaking it since.  The defense did a poor job against the run and was only marginally better against the pass, and when Miami lost they lost big.  They certainly can't afford any more injuries, because there are huge drop-offs from the already somewhat marginal starting unit.

-- Special teams

Kicker Matt Goudis was reliable last year from short range but shaky once he got past 40 yards.  There's a competition on for the punting job, in which Justin Vogel looks to have the upper hand, but nobody is going to replace Pat O'Donnell's incredible 47.1 yard average.

-- Outlook

Of 13 ACC team previews last year, the Miami one was probably the most spot-on; the cliff notes is that they ought to improve on seven wins and go bowling, but not contend strongly for the Coastal championship because defense.  Lo and behold, it came to pass precisely as such.  The Canes started out strongly but crashed out of the race with three consecutive 40-point clunkers allowed by the defense, one of which made the notoriously inaccurate Logan Thomas look like Peyton Manning in a tank.

Well, for 2014, nothing has changed.  The offense has a few chinks showing but is more or less well-equipped to handle the season, especially if the quarterback thing shakes out.  The test for Golden is going to be this defense.  It's got some pieces in the right places, but is one of the woefully thinnest units in the league, and lacks playmakers (except, perhaps, at cornerback and middle linebacker.  And even then, Perryman is more of a right-place-right-time player than a stat-sheet lighter-upper.)  Everyone in the whole Coastal is loaded with flaws, so I won't say Miami can't come out on top.  It's there for the taking.  But for Golden to take the next step with this program, and keep their momentum trending positively, he's got to pull off some surprises on defense or else head back to the RA Bowl.

game preview: Miami

Date/Time: Wednesday, February 26; 7:00

TV: ACC Net., ESPN3

Record against the Canes: 5-10

Last meeting: Miami 54, UVA 50; 2/19/13, Coral Gables

Last game: UVA 70, ND 49 (2/22); Mia. 69, BC 42 (2/22)

KenPom:

Tempo:
UVA: 61.5 (#344)
Mia.: 58.7 (#351)

Offense:
UVA: 112.1 (#43)
Mia.: 106.7 (#133)

Defense:
UVA: 89.5 (#4)
Mia.: 97.7 (#54)

Pythag:
UVA: .9308 (#6)
Mia.: .7341 (#71)

Projected lineups:

Virginia:

PG: London Perrantes (4.4 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 3.7 apg)
SG: Malcolm Brogdon (12.3 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 2.4 apg)
SF: Joe Harris (11.5 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 2.3 apg)
PF: Akil Mitchell (7.2 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.4 apg)
C: Mike Tobey (6.8 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 0.4 apg)

Miami:

PG: Garrius Adams (10.2 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 2.9 apg)
SG: Rion Brown (15.0 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 2.3 apg)
SF: Erik Swoope (3.3 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 0.5 apg)
PF: Donnavan Kirk (8.5 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 0.2 apg)
PF: Raphael Akpejiori (0.9 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 0.1 apg)

Amazing as it may sound, Syracuse isn't the next game.  There's still the little matter of this Miami thing.  The last time these two teams met, Miami was the 2nd-ranked team in the country and on its way to an ACC title.  Fortunes have reversed somewhat; the Canes are 5-9 and no threat to make any tournament but the CBI, and it's UVA that's on a title quest.

A win here would give UVA the drop on Duke and clinch a seed no worse than 2nd in the ACC tourney, but more importantly, it'd be a piece of concrete proof (as if we needed any more) that Tony Bennett's insistence that the team climb the stairs one at a time is sinking in.  Really, there's nothing here in terms of tournament setup that UVA can't do later on; there's also nothing they can do later (like win the regular season title) that can be sped up and done here.  It's very much a take-care-of-business game.

-- UVA on offense

The Hoos are coming off their most explosive offensive performance of the year - 70 points in only 52 possessions - fueled largely by completely unstoppable forward play.  Things will have to be a little different here.  Miami has one of the best two-point defenses in the country - allowing a .429 shooting percentage, good for 15th-best.

UVA will get another healthy dose of zone defense here - Jim Larranaga is using it more heavily than in the past.  His team is uniquely set up for it; practically everyone they'll deploy is 6'6" or taller, and do a solid job of discouraging drives at the rim.  They foul very little, don't pick up a lot of steals, and they'll block shots (particularly Donnavan Kirk - he's been a very good rim defender his whole career).  It's a pretty conservative defense.

That means things might look a lot like the VT game.  UVA was unable to loosen up the Hokies' zone for long stretches, laying quite a few bricks along the way.  Hopefully the familiar setting will fix some of those problems, because if the Hoos want a simple game, no muss no fuss, they'll need to hit the open threes that inevitably come their way.

-- UVA on defense

Miami is sort of an island of misfit toys on offense, and things didn't get better when Larranaga suspended forward James Kelly last week.  Kelly's suspension is "expected to last three games" which means this one would be the final one, and it deprives the Canes of a versatile bench scorer.  Kelly is the only player on the team shooting over .500 on the season.

Initially expected to try out freshman Davon Reed at point guard, Larranaga abandoned that experiment, and the starter at the 1 is Garrius Adams, more suited for shooting guard than point.  He's backed up by waterbug freshman Manu Lecomte, who brings good secondary scoring and a rangy jump shot, but is still learning the ropes at point.  The pack-line is already a tricky thing for a rookie point guard to handle; things could get interesting if Tony Bennett chooses to attack Lecomte with Justin Anderson, who stands nine inches taller and gives up nothing in terms of quickness.

Without Kelly, the most dangerous players on offense are probably Rion Brown and Donnavan Kirk.  Kirk is the only major interior threat; seven-footer Tonye Jekiri doesn't bring much and Raphael Akpejiori is strictly a defender.  Adams is the second-leading scorer, but he's never been terribly efficient; in general rather a volume scorer.  Reed has shown a decent three-point shot, but is shooting only .317 from inside the arc.

Overall, though, poor shooting is what's doomed this team.  They're at best inconsistent - when they win, it's because they're hitting their threes (or else the opponent is REALLY missing theirs.)  Only VT shoots twos worse, though, in conference play.  UVA should be leery of the Canes' three-point shooters, because most of their players won't hesitate to fire away, and the way the Canes set things up, we'll be in for it if they're hitting and we're not.  But that's why home-court advantage exists.

-- Outlook

Despite being a fairly poor offensive team by ACC standards - and despite supplying VT's only two conference wins - Miami probably isn't totally as bad as their record.  They play solid D and they did go on the road to beat both FSU and UNC (the latter during the Heels' dark ages, though.)  Still, with a hit to their depth and being on the road, and not being able to shoot all that well, Miami's a clear underdog.  This game could be closer than you'd think it should be, because of Miami's wicked slow pace (you know it's bad when a Virginia fan is saying this; Miami is in fact the slowest team in the country, because zone defense and misfit point guards) and the possibility that we could go dry from three.  Still, one of these teams is 14-1 for a reason.

Final score: UVA 57, Miami 50

*******************************************

Party time: I finally got around to putting up a new banner.  The fact that the boring white one stayed for like a month was no purposeful protest, I just have a job and stuff and nobody stepped to the plate to make me a new one.  So I said the hell with it, and did it myself.  I know my limits as a graphic designer, and they are many and large, so I didn't get all ambitious, and I like the result.  It's simple and clean, if I do say so myself.  It's here to stay for a while.

season preview: Miami

Media prediction: 12th of 15

Last season:

Record: 29-7 (15-3); ACC 1 seed and tourney champion
Postseason: NCAA 2 seed; lost in Sweet 16
KenPom: 14th of 347

Returning scoring: 13.4%
Returning rebounding: 15.5%
Returning assists: 9.8%

2012-2013 all-ACC:

1st team: G Shane Larkin
2nd team: C Kenny Kadji
3rd team: none
HM: G Durand Scott
Defensive: G Shane Larkin, G Durand Scott
Rookie: none

(Italics indicate departed player.)

Starting lineup:

PG: Davon Reed (Fr.)
SG: Rion Brown (Sr.)
SG: Garrius Adams (5Sr.)
PF: James Kelly (Jr.)
PF: Donnavan Kirk (5Sr.)

Bench:

G Manu Lecomte (Fr.)
C Tonye Jekiri (So.)
F Erik Swoope (Sr.)

Coach: Jim Larranaga (3rd season)

ACC schedule:

Twice: Florida State, NC State, Syracuse, Virginia Tech
Once: Boston College, Clemson, Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Wake Forest

Talk about rebuilding.  Everyone knew Miami's window of opportunity was last year, and they made it count with an ACC title and a Sweet 16 appearance.  In all the time I've been doing basketball previews, though, I've calculated the returning points and stats and stuff the same way and never seen numbers that low.  I'm sure it would be a record if I bothered to look.  Probably for the last decade or two; having such turnover among your key players is rare, and absolutely bound to result in a major drop-off.

Jim Larranaga's been around the block a few times, though, and picked up a couple transfers to supplement the freshmen and few returning players.  Some of them won't be available til next year, but forward Donnavan Kirk is an interesting case.  Rare indeed is the player who transfers back to the school he originally left, but Kirk spent a couple years at DePaul and then came back to Miami to finish his eligibility as a grad student.  Kirk is only an average scorer at best, but an excellent rebounder - particularly on the offensive end - and a big-time shot-blocker as well.

The rest of the thin frontcourt is comprised of forward James Kelly and center Tonye Jekiri, also better rebounders and defenders than scorers.  Miami occasionally moves a few other people into the game, but these three take up most of their frontcourt minutes; suffice to say there's not much offensive punch back there.

Miami is also looking for answers at point guard, where they've asked 6'6" freshman Davon Reed to handle some of the duties, as well as fellow freshman Manu Lecomte.  Reed has a decent shot but a tough time getting to the rim, and isn't a good free-throw shooter.  Lecomte is tiny at 5'9".  The offense really runs more through senior shooting guard Rion Brown, one of the few veteran holdovers from last season.  Brown is the guy being asked to take charge of the team and be the lead dog in the scoring department.  He's got help from fellow senior Garrius Adams.  Both can score, although much less consistently from three.  Adams is a better defender as well.

Overall, though, this team is precisely what you'd expect after losing so much talent: a little on the thin side, freshmen in key places, star players who are capable but not really stars.  It's not that Brown and Adams aren't ACC-level players, but the Canes don't have enough proven talent like that, and guys like those two are best in complementary roles.  The Canes play solid defense - not surprising under a veteran coach like Larranaga - but don't shoot well, don't get to the line much, and struggle to score even in their wins.

They started the season with a loss to St. Francis (NY) and it's been a struggle since.  An upset win over Arizona State will likely prove to be the highlight of the season, but, sitting at 7-5 already, Miami looks as though they'll finish the season with a losing record.  They've already lost to predicted last-seed Virginia Tech.  In 18 ACC games, it would surprise if Miami were to win more than four or five, and their season will come to an end in the ACC tourney.

game preview: Miami

Date/Time: Saturday, November 23; 12:00

TV: ESPNUVA

Line: Miami by 20

Record against the Canes: 5-5

Last meeting: UVA 41, Miami 40; 11/10/12, Charlottesville

Last weekend: UVA bye; Duke 48, Miami 30

Injury report:

Virginia:

OUT - OL George Adeosun, CB Demetrious Nicholson, TE Mario Nixon, WR Canaan Severin, S Wil Wahee

DOUBTFUL - None

QUESTIONABLE - None

PROBABLE - CB Maurice Canady, CB Kelvin Rainey, DT Brent Urban

Miami:

OUT - DB Artie Burns, WR Philip Dorsett, LB Alex Figueroa, RB Duke Johnson, OL Hunter Knighton

DOUBTFUL - None

QUESTIONABLE - None

PROBABLE - None

(As with Georgia Tech, I'm quite sure that Miami is perfectly healthy aside from the players who can't go at all.  No bumps, bruises, or sprains to be found.)

So I guess I have to go write about football some more.  I was sort of enjoying the little hiatus.  That's only half a joke.  This has been the kind of season that really makes you question your involvement in the team and wondering if your Saturdays wouldn't be better spent doing almost anything else.  You'll forget about all that next August, of course, but for now, sanity and happiness dictate that you spend the time putting up the Christmas lights or something.

-- UVA run offense vs. Miami run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 184 carries, 796 yards, 4.3 ypc, 10 TDs
Khalek Shepherd: 47 carries, 267 yards, 5.7 ypc, 1 TD

UVA offense:
152.7 yards/game, 3.67 yards/attempt
98th of 125 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)

Miami defense:
172.5 yards/game, 4.19 yards/attempt
67th of 125 (national), 11th of 14 (ACC)

I suppose if there's any drama remaining in this season, Kevin Parks's quest for 1,000 yards might provide some.  He's 204 yards away with two games left, so it's not totally out of reach.  It's going to be hard, though; VT's defense is VT's defense, and Miami's isn't too shabby either.  It's a fairly remarkable stat that the 11th-best run defense in the conference is just a shade outside the top half nationally.  (And the conference's 10th-best is well inside it.)

Miami hadn't allowed a game of over 200 rushing yards to a non-Georgia Tech team until just last week, when Duke shredded them.  Even if Duke is 8-2, nobody wants to allow that kind of performance against them, so this might have the makings of a classic motivated rebound game.

Leading the defense is linebacker Denzel Perryman, with 91 tackles this season; another linebacker, Jimmy Gaines, is second with 64.  But the guy who probably presents the most threat to UVA's porous offensive line is defensive end Shayon Green, who has 7.5 run-game TFLs.  He'll likely present a particular threat to David Watford's running attempts.

So I don't expect to see much room.  Consider the Duke game a blip; that game alone caused the Canes to drop, like, 30-odd places in the national run-defense rankings.  (Thus illustrating the dangers of relying too heavily on them, even this late in the season.)  The UVA run game is a little better than it appears, because Watford is often sacked and has poor running instincts.  Handing it off has always been a more productive play.  Still, I'd be surprised to see Parks top 70 yards.

-- UVA pass offense vs. Miami pass defense

Quarterback:
David Watford: 221/379, 58.3%; 1,974 yards, 7 TDs, 12 INTs; 5.21 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Jake McGee: 36 rec., 305 yards, 2 TDs
Kevin Parks: 34 rec., 305 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
212.6 yards/game, 5.0 yards/attempt
125th of 125 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

Miami defense:
228.0 yards/game, 7.4 yards/attempt
84th of 125 (national), 12th of 14 (ACC)

Baghdad Bob got ahold of the UVA Football tweetster account this week and built an infographic that used some stats (almost exclusively his 221 completions) to try to make David Watford look like the Next Coming.  Naturally it was met with mockery and disdain, and that was just from the UVA fans.  Who kindly pointed out the little issue of having won only two games.

Watford is likely to rack up a whole bunch more completions this week, which will lead mainly to another five-touchdown loss and an updated infographic.  But Miami has been complicit lately in pass defense.  You might expect Jameis Winston and perhaps even Bryn Renner to have terrific games; you wouldn't ever peg Logan Thomas for 25-of-31 for 366 yards.  That's a surprise and a half.

From a playmaking standpoint, Miami actually does well against the pass.  Safety Rayshawn Jenkins and CB Tracy Howard have three picks each, although nobody has more than five break-ups.  Nobody has more than 3.5 sacks, either, but overall the Canes have 26, which is good enough for 25th in the country.

But they sure do allow completions.  So Watford will probably rack them up.  They might all be screens, swing passes, and a heavy dependence on Jake McGee, but the completions will probably be there.  At this point, though, that yards-per-attempt is what it is.  I had hopes that might creep up to the mid-sixes range by the end of the season, but no.  I also had hopes Greyson Lambert might start in order to give him a small head-start on the inevitable repeat competition next year, but also no.  Mike London is hopelessly tied to making the exact opposite mistake from previous seasons.

-- Miami run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Dallas Crawford: 96 carries, 446 yards, 10 TDs
Gus Edwards: 40 carries, 220 yards, 3 TDs

Miami run offense:
180.0 yards/game, 5.16 yards/attempt
24th of 125 (national), 4th of 14 (ACC)

UVA run defense:
183.2 yards/game, 4.55 yards/attempt
84th of 125 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)

Brent Urban is back!  Duke Johnson is out!  That alone ought to tilt the matchup in UVA's favor.... or might have, if we'd been writing this five or six weeks ago.  Miami still has a stable of solid backs; Dallas Crawford has done a good job this season when playing in relief of Johnson, and Gus Edwards is an absolute load at 6'2", 225, and will probably see his field time increase as time goes on; particularly when Miami is not playing from behind.  Which they're not likely to do on Saturday.

Still - this game might be a little petri dish of sorts.  UVA's slide from mediocre but still reasonably hopeful to pitiful oblivion coincided neatly with Urban's injury, sustained against Maryland.  Losing Demetrious Nicholson had something to do with that too, but defensive line play hasn't been even close to the same without Urban.  It'll be interesting to see if his presence in the lineup will help prevent those six-consecutive-touchdown runs our opponents like to go on.

I'm not really that hopeful, of course; when Urban was playing, the team was much more fully invested in the outcome of the game.  He'll be fired up and ready to go, but have his teammates checked out some?  Probably.  And I doubt we're looking at the 100% real deal here; the fact that Urban can play doesn't mean he's in preseason shape.  I expect this game to still be fairly ugly in this department.

-- Miami pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Stephen Morris: 156/263, 59.3%; 2,358 yards, 16 TDs, 11 INTs; 8.97 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Allen Hurns: 45 rec., 839 yards, 5 TDs
Herb Waters: 28 rec., 405 yards, 5 TDs

Miami offense:
278.2 yards/game, 9.2 yards/attempt
8th of 125 (national), 2nd of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
234.3 yards/game, 7.1 yards/attempt
69th of 125 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

Another key returner for UVA's defense: Maurice Canady, coming back from a medical issue that Doug Doughty reported to be kidney bleeding.  Yeah, OK, I guess it's alright if you sit out for that.  Can't really say all is well with his likely return, though; UVA faces one of the more potent passing offenses they've faced all year.

UVA's challenge starts with a senior quarterback, who's occasionally prone to throwing interceptions, but outweighs them with real production.  Stephen Morris's favorite target by far is Allen Hurns, a deadly big-play threat; he averages 18.6 yards a catch and has a pair of 80-yard TDs this season.  Herb Waters and Stacy Coley both command attention as well and keep the field open for Hurns.  And Clive Walford is a very good tight end, rounding out Morris's ammo supply.

If Canady weren't coming back I'd look at Drequan Hoskey and Tim Harris trying to cover this gang and mark down about 60 points for Miami.  UVA can more effectively use a nickel package now - Kelvin Rainey was doing an OK job as the nickel corner, but the added depth will be much appreciated.  Still, this bodes ill.  I mean, we're kind of jaded to the idea anymore, but Miami does a really nice job of protecting Morris and for every good play our guys make, Miami will probably turn it around with a 25-yarder.  I suspect Morris will find a way to deliver the ball to Anthony Harris's hands once at some point, but it's not like that'll be a huge obstacle.

-- Favorability ratings

UVA run offense: 3
UVA pass offense: 2
UVA run defense: 4
UVA pass defense: 1.5

Average: 2.63

-- Outlook

A commenter this week called Miami a team in "free-fall."  While the optimism about our opponent is admirable, if a three-game losing streak is a free-fall I don't want to know what a seven-game losing streak is.  Speaking of streaks, UVA actually happens to be on a three-game streak of the winning variety against the Canes.  We're 5-2 against them since 2006, and 2-1 on the road; Miami seems to be the exception to the rule that UVA teams blow chunks on the road.  But you don't have a historically bullshit season like this one without breaking every pattern of success you once had.  If our opponent is in free-fall, we're the downy-soft pillowy cushion at the bottom.

-- Prediction summary

-- David Watford has between 29 and 43 completions, giving him his second-most in a game this year.  I reserve the right to prorate this out in case of early Greyson Lambert showing.

-- Lambert attempts 10+ passes.

-- Dallas Crawford rushes for over 100 yards in Duke Johnson's absence.

-- Ant Harris gets another interception.

-- Stephen Morris tops 300 passing yards.

-- Miami scores at least one touchdown of 65 yards or greater, through the air.

Final score: Miami 45, UVA 13

-- Rest of the ACC

North Carolina vs. Old Dominion - 12:00 - ODU seems bound and determined to play as many of our recruiting rivals as they can.

Duke @ Wake Forest - 12:00 - Duke needs this one to stay in contention for the ACC CG, unless they think counting on UVA to beat VT next week is a viable strategy.

Clemson vs. The Citadel - 12:00 - As you'll see in a few lines here, the ACC is starting to pick up on the SEC strategy of waiting til the end of the season to play the cupcake games.

NC State vs. East Carolina - 12:30 - The Pack are likely to finish this season 5th out of 5 I-A teams in the state.

Pittsburgh @ Syracuse - 12:30 - The Newcomer Bowl.  Winner goes actual bowling; loser probably won't.

Georgia Tech vs. Alabama A&M - 1:30 - You see what I mean about the cupcakes.

Florida State vs. Idaho - 3:30 - You still see what I mean about the cupcakes.

Boston College @ Maryland - 3:30 - Jockeying for position on the bowl selection pecking order.

Bye: Virginia Tech

weekend review

Well well.  Let's start this off with what must be the first piece of good football news in weeks: a recruiting board update that includes a commitment.  Whoda thunk it?  Here's the new score:

-- Added CB Darious Latimore to orange.  Latimore is a guy I did know about, and with SEC offers fairly close to home, didn't think would be worth adding.  A guy who likes us better than Tennessee is a guy who I think has his head on straight and probably nobody else does.  But a guy who's willing to commit now has to know the score and doesn't care, instantly making him the safest commit on the whole list.

Latimore is a consensus mid-to-low three-star guy with mid-three-star offers: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech, and Kansas State.  Assuming Jeffery Farrar is also a cornerback, he makes the second in the class, which in turn is just about the sweet spot for that position this year.

-- Moved DE Melvin Keihn from blue to green.

-- Moved OT Alex Bookser from green to yellow. 

-- Moved DT Derrick Nnadi from yellow to red.  These three are reflective of the poor shape of the win-loss record and roughly what I think the effect is on the recruiting board.

I still rather expect that Mike London will find another Mason Thomas type somewhere in-state to fill out some numbers, because that's what he does; whether such a player will be impactful is generally up in the air, although it should be noted that Divante Walker has been making appearances on both special teams and defense this year.

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Sock-hair.  And more good news!  Not as much in the men's department, where they managed only a tie in Blacksburg.  Virginia Tech is a team you'd like to beat, but the Hokies are 1-2-5, so draws are kind of their thing.  The ladies, on the other hand, went down to Chapel Hill - without USWNT member Morgan Brian, earning her third cap against Australia - and did something extraordinary.  According to the official recap: "the Cavaliers [handed] North Carolina just their second multi-goal loss since 1986, a span of 690 games."

That's amazing.  In 27 years UNC has lost by more than one goal just twice - one of them last week.  Carolina has a surprising three ACC losses this year, but still.  UNC was also missing a top player to USNWT action, but still.  This ladies' team is a mighty offensive powerhouse, with some real depth - there are three players in Brian, Makenzy Doniak, and Brittany Ratcliffe who are crushers of dreams and a full complement of forwards and midfielders who know how to find their playmakers.  In Brian and Danielle Colaprico, UVA has the top two assist leaders in the ACC.

The impression I've had from watching this team - admittedly against the two worst squads in the ACC, Pitt and a portion of the NC State game - is one that attacks not with relentless aggression, but with a calm self-assuredness.  As if they know that as long as they keep the pressure on, they're better than the defenders and eventually something will go in.  They play with confidence, knowing they don't need to be flying forward at all times in order to score.  It's fun to watch a Virginia team that is better and knows it.

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A couple of news notes:

-- It looks like Miami will finally hear the word from the NCAA.  Sanctions come tomorrow.  Guaranteed nobody will be happy.  After the NCAA botched the investigation, it's not likely the punishment will appease people who want to see blood for, you know, allowing players to live like pimps on delicious booster cash.  Meantime Miami president Donna Shalala is being a colossal whiny bitch, claiming that "we have been wronged in this investigation."  So if the punishment is no dessert for a week, she'll appeal.

-- You remember Trae Golden, maybe.  He was recruited fairly heavily by UVA, then went to Tennessee where he suited up against the Hoos in JPJA last year - and will now do so again at Georgia Tech.  GT could be solid this year.

-- Basketball media days were last week - and I consider the result a surprise.  In a show of respect for what Tony Bennett has put together, the Hoos are 4th in the preseason media poll.  Given the amount of impressive new blood joining the league - the lowest-ranked new member in the poll was Pitt at 6th of 15, with ND 5th and Cuse 2nd - that is high praise indeed.  It says "we expect you to make the ACC semis and, obviously, the NCAA tournament."  Like, 4 or 5 seed stuff in the NCAA tournament.  Plus they put Joe Harris on the preseason all-ACC team - and not a single Tar Heel.

We all know what the media poll really means once the rubber hits the hardwood, but there's another truism about college programs: they're only as good as their publicity.  If the media says you're awesome, people start to believe it.  This isn't the same as constant TV coverage with Dick Vitale and all the rest, but it's a little bit something regardless.  It says there are expectations, and that the games we play will be Big Games for reasons besides the opponent.  You have to back that up obviously, but it's a start.

And just as a footnote, that other team in Virginia is last.  With 65 points from 54 voters, a minimum of 43 media types figure the Hokies for the worst team in the ACC.  Playing them a guaranteed twice a year is going to be a little advantage over the rest of the league for the foreseeable future.

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Darious Latimore joins the club just in time for this week's Senior Seasons feature.  It's easy for me, too, because I can use the same source I use for Jordan Ellis.  They're from the same region of Georgia and their schools are not terribly far apart.  They don't play each other, though.

Episcopal 30, Penn Charter 0 - Evan Butts scored twice, once on a conventional reception and once on a fumble return as a defensive end.  He also racked up 98 yards receiving.  Episcopal is 7-1.

Upland 27, Los Osos 10 (Jeffery Farrar) - Upland is 4-3.
Central Catholic 47, Calvary Christian 23 (Caanan Brown) - CCC is 6-1.
Brookwood 23, Central Gwinnett 14 (Darious Latimore) - Central Gwinnett is 2-5.
Cummings 37, Carrboro 20 (Will Richardson) - Cummings is 2-6.
Oscar Smith 42, Grassfield 0 (Andrew Brown) - Oscar Smith is 7-0.
James Monroe 42, Chancellor 12 (Steven Moss) - Chancellor is 1-6.
Loudoun County 31, Woodgrove 28 (J.J. Jackson) - Woodgrove is 4-2.

Oscar Smith also beat Nansemond River 48-7 last Monday in a rain-delayed game that didn't make it into last week's update, and Chancellor lost to Caroline 26-20 on the same date.

season preview: Miami Hurricanes

Schedule:

8/30: Florida Atlantic (Fri.)
9/7: Florida
9/14: BYE
9/21: Savannah State
9/28: @ South Florida
10/5: Georgia Tech
10/12: BYE
10/17: @ North Carolina (Thu.)
10/26: Wake Forest
11/2: @ Florida State
11/9: Virginia Tech
11/16: @ Duke
11/23: Virginia
11/30: @ Pittsburgh

Skip: Boston College, Clemson, Maryland, NC State, Syracuse

2012 results:

Boston College: W, 41-32
Kansas State: L, 52-13
Bethune-Cookman: W, 38-10
Georgia Tech: W, 42-36
NC State: W, 44-37
Notre Dame: L, 41-3
North Carolina: L, 18-14
Florida State: L, 33-20
Virginia Tech: W, 30-12
Virginia: L, 41-40
South Florida: W, 40-9
Duke: W, 52-45

Record: 7-5 (5-3); 2nd of 6, Coastal Division

Projected starters:

QB: Stephen Morris (Sr.)
RB: Duke Johnson (So.)
WR: Allen Hurns (Sr.)
WR: Phillip Dorsett (Jr.)
WR: Herb Waters (So.)
TE: Clive Walford (Jr.)
LT: Ereck Flowers (So.)
LG: Jon Feliciano (rJr.)
C: Shane McDermott (rJr.)
RG: Brandon Linder (Sr.)
RT: Seantrel Henderson (Sr.)

DE: Olsen Pierre (Jr.)
DT: Curtis Porter (5Sr.)
DT: Luther Robinson (5Sr.)
DE: Anthony Chickillo (Jr.)
LB: Thurston Armbrister (Jr.)
LB: Jimmy Gaines (Sr.)
LB: Denzel Perryman (Jr.)
CB: Ladarius Gunter (Jr.)
CB: Antonio Crawford (So.)
S: Rayshawn Jenkins (So.)
S: A.J. Highsmith (Jr.)

K: Matt Goudis (So.)
P: Pat O'Donnell (5Sr.)

(Italics indicate new starter.)

Coach: Al Golden, 3rd season

Media prediction: 1st of 7, Coastal Division; ACC runner-up

All-ACC:

2012 1st team: none
2012 2nd team: RB Duke Johnson, KR Duke Johnson
2012 HM: G Jon Feliciano, OT Seantrel Henderson, G Brandon Linder, LB Denzel Perryman
2013 preseason: G Brandon Linder, RB Duke Johnson

(Italics indicate departed player.)

Miami is a semi-heavy favorite this year to effect a return to glory, if glory is winning the division and losing in the championship game.  The reason: their offense.  Plenty of reason to think the Hurricanes' offense can carry them through the season.  The defense will be another matter - as might the still-hanging matter of the Nevin Shapiro investigation.

-- Offense

The scary thing about Miami will be its ground game.  ACC freshman of the year Duke Johnson split carries almost evenly last season with Mike James, and gained 320+ yards more than James did.  Johnson was just shy of a 1,000 yard season despite the platoon (averaging almost 7 yards per carry), and with James graduating, Johnson should have an even bigger role in the offense this year.  Miami otherwise returns only about 30 combined carries among its other backs, making Johnson the full-time focus.

He runs behind a very experienced offensive line, particularly on the interior.  Both guards, Jon Feliciano and Brandon Linder, earned honorable mention all-ACC last year.  They, as well as center Shane McDermott, started all 12 games at their respective positions last year, and Feliciano and Linder are both third-year starters this season.  Barring injury, the combination of such extensive O-line experience and Johnson's talent makes the Miami rushing attack one of the surest things in the ACC this year.

On the exterior of that line, the occasionally mercurial - and massive - Seantrel Henderson returns to lock down the right tackle position.  Henderson returned midseason from an injury last season and bumped Ereck Flowers to the bench after Flowers had started the first few games at tackle; Flowers now returns to the starting lineup to get first crack at left tackle.  The impressive thing about Flowers is that he had held that starting role as just a true freshman, so the ceiling here is very high.  Flowers, if he starts, will be pushing Malcolm Bunche to the sixth-man role on the line; Bunche was the starting left tackle for all 12 games last season, and provides flexibility as he can play either tackle or guard.

Quarterback Stephen Morris also gives Miami the confidence that comes with having a senior signal-caller.  Morris's most impressive stat last season was his 21 touchdowns against just 7 interceptions.  He also gets a full complement of familiar targets.  Morris spread the ball around pretty well last year, throwing touchdowns of 50 yards or more to six different players.  The top receiver was Phillip Dorsett, catching 58 balls for 842 yards, and there's plenty of depth as well.  And size; Allen Hurns is 6'3" and Herb Waters and Rashawn Scott each stand 6'2".  All are, or can be, very good, productive receivers, although none are in the elite echelons of talent, and Scott is working his way into the good graces of the coaches after having his 2012 season cut short due to suspension.  Tight end Clive Walford is another weapon, hauling in 25 catches last year.

The star of the offense is almost definitely Johnson, if he doesn't hit a sophomore slump.  Miami is a little thin at tailback behind him, but deeper than most teams everywhere else, and the offensive line is easily one of the most experienced in the league.  The depth of the receiving corps makes up for the fact that there isn't a particular elite talent, and Morris does a good job of making it all click.  The Hurricane offense will be tough to stop this year.

-- Defense

To live up to their expectations, though, the defense will have to be better than it looks.  To start with, it was one of the ACC's worst in 2012, and then the linebacking corps took a major hit in the offseason with off-field troubles taking three regulars off the roster.  The silver lining to that is that the revolving door at linebacker from 2012 means there are still experienced players left.  Denzel Perryman is a rangy playmaker and moves from the middle to the outside this season; Perryman missed three games but would've been on pace for 85 tackles had he played all 12.  Also on the outside is Thurston Armbrister, who had 40 tackles in four starts and eight games as a reserve.  Senior linebacker Jimmy Gaines has been a part-time starter for most of his career and is in line to hold down the job on a full-time basis this year.  These three guys are decent - Perryman more so than the others - but not spectacular, and the offseason losses of Gianni Paul and Eddie Johnson put a huge dent in the depth.

Defensive tackle is another dodgy position.  Seniors Curtis Porter and Luther Robinson are awfully inexperienced for seniors; in Porter's case it's because of an injury-riddled career.  The backups are no more experienced than the starters, and much younger.  The Canes are in much better shape at defensive end and could at times slide Olsen Pierre inside in order to get him on the field at the same time as Anthony Chickillo and Shayon Green.  The three can really be considered co-starters at DE, with Chickillo being the main pass-rushing threat and Pierre and Green being better against the run.  Miami didn't bring much of a pass rush last season, and Chickillo is more or less the only one who'll bring consistent pressure.

Competition in the secondary is heated right now.  At cornerback, Ladarius Gunter - probably Miami's best returning CB - is being pushed hard by Tracy Howard, who jumped into the rotation immediately as a freshman in 2012 and acquitted himself fairly well.  Redshirt freshman Nate Dortch is also working hard for playing time against Antonio Crawford, who played on special teams last year and sparingly as a cornerback.  This is a unit with major experience and productivity issues that will have to take a major step forward if Miami is going to improve.  Safety is in better shape - there is competition as well, but among better, more experienced options.  Deon Bush made a big impression as a true freshman last year, Kacy Rodgers started seven games, and these are the currently listed backups.  A.J. Highsmith and another player who played a great deal as a freshman last year, Rayshawn Jenkins, are the rest of the two-deep; even if the position isn't quite settled at the moment, Miami should find some good answers at safety.

But as a whole, with such shakiness at corner and the lack of a consistent pass rush, Miami will have a tough time defending the pass.  If Porter and Robinson have good seasons at defensive tackle, they can improve against the run, but then, there's a lot of room for that, too.  This defense simply has to get better if Miami is to make it to the ACCCG as predicted.

Edit: I forgot, when writing, that our formerly very own Justin Renfrow would be eligible to play right away for Miami this year.  At the very least that'll help shore up Miami's depth at defensive tackle, and Renfrow should be able to compete for a spot in a three-man rotation.

-- Special teams

New kicker and punter this year.  Matt Goudis is largely unknown, but was fairly heavily recruited.  Punter Pat O'Donnell is a transfer from Cincinnati, where he displayed a very big leg.  He should be a top punter in the ACC this year.

-- Outlook

Simply put, I don't think Miami is a good candidate for division champion, except maybe by elimination of other contenders.  The offense will be very good, particularly the run game, but not overpowering.  And it may not be enough to win shootouts, which the defense is at risk of putting them in.  If they don't end up with another postseason ban, Miami is a bowl team and probably even a better one than the 7-5 they put up last year - but will need to take a lot of forward strides on defense to contend for the ACC title.