Tuesday, April 29, 2014

next year's acc

Still just can't let go of hoops just yet.  The deadline for early entry to the NBA draft has passed us by, so now we know for sure what next year's ACC rosters will look like, except for inevitable attrition here and there on account of summer shenanigans and potential late transfers.  So, as promised, here are the roster changes for each ACC team next season.  (Note on transfers: most have to sit out a year, as you know, so the ones included here are the ones who can play this coming season.  Duke is getting Sean Obi, for example, but not til '15-'16.)



Steve Donahue (fired)
Danny Rubin (graduated)
Ryan Anderson (transfer)
Joe Rahon (transfer to St. Mary's)


Jim Christian (new coach - from Ohio)
Nat Dixon (freshman)

BC didn't exactly make an inspirational hire, and they took the usual transfer hit from the coaching transition.  Rubin was an emergency pickup by Donahue when he first took the job, and didn't have much of a role after his freshman year, but Anderson and Rahon represented a huge chunk of minutes and scoring.  Christian will still have Olivier Hanlan to rebuild around, but this team lost a ton of close games this year and will probably lose a ton of blowouts next year.



K.J. McDaniels (early entry)
Adonis Filer (transfer)


Donte Grantham (freshman)
Gabe DeVoe (freshman)

The loss of all-everything star McDaniels will be somewhat softened by picking up top-100 recruit Grantham, but McDaniels is an outstanding player on both ends of the court whose NBA decision was considered one of the better ones.  Clemson loses a world of talent in him alone.  Filer was a 15-mpg player who is replaceable.  The plus side for the Tigers: no seniors this past year, so there are a ton of returning veterans, and Brad Brownell is a savvy coach.



Rodney Hood (early entry)
Jabari Parker (early entry)
Alex Murphy (transfer)
Andre Dawkins (graduation)
Tyler Thornton (graduation)
Josh Hairston (graduation)


Tyus Jones (freshman)
Jahlil Okafor (freshman)
Justise Winslow (freshman)
Grayson Allen (freshman)

Duke has a nasty-good recruiting class even by their standards; the lowest ranked player there is Allen, #28 in the country to Rivals.  Consensus has it they won't really miss a beat, even by losing their top two scorers who are both first-round projections.  Two NBAers out, three five-stars in; the math looks to be in their favor.  Still, in Dawkins and Thornton they're losing a not-insignificant amount of shooting and quality role-player minutes.  Pinning your hopes on a marquee freshman class can be a volatile strategy, so we'll see if Coach K can make it work.

(This is as good a place as any to throw in this note about Parker.  He's a top-three pick by most projections, but ESPN does give this as a downside: "Can sometimes struggle against long, athletic players."  I just wonder where on earth they got that idea.  Bweh-heh-heh-heh.)



Robert Gilchrist (graduated)
Ian Miller (graduated)
Okaro White (graduated)
Kiel Turpin (graduated)


Robbie Berwick (freshman)
Norbetas Giga (freshman)
Dayshawn Watkins (juco)
Kedar Edwards (juco)

FSU is perfectly balanced here, losing nobody early and replacing every senior with an incoming recruit.  It's not a highly-thought of class, though, and FSU loses the coaches' choice for ACC 6th Man (Miller) as well as their most dependable interior scorer and rebounder (White.)  They had a scoring triumvirate this year and lose two of those players to graduation; they're going to have to see some of their holdovers take big steps forward in order to maintain their position in the league.



Solomon Poole (kicked off)
Trae Golden (graduation)
Kammeon Holsey (graduation)
Daniel Miller (graduation)
Stacey Poole (graduation)


Robert Sampson (transfer from East Carolina)
Myles Autry (freshman)
Abdoulaye Gueye (freshman)
Tadric Jackson (freshman)
Ben Lammers (freshman)

With Golden, Holsey, and Miller, that's a very big chunk of the GT core this season.  Miller developed quite well during his career, and Golden provided them a year's worth of better PG play than they ever got out of Mfon Udofia.  But they also have a solid lineup of holdovers, and their recruiting class is a good one.  Jackson and Autry picked GT over a very long list of suitors.  ECU transfer Sampson should be a decent role player.  Some thought that GT might fire Brian Gregory this year, considering as they kind of stunk, but they could be poised for some upward mobility next year.



The school


Guys in Louisville uniforms

This is a trade-up for the league, at least here in the short term.  Louisville already had a very good team; they won't bring Russdiculous with them to the ACC, but they do keep Montrezl Harrell so that Hokie fans can see just exactly what they missed out on, and their freshman class is outstanding.

(I've chosen not to more fully profile Louisville here, because from an ACC perspective we won't see the difference.  Like how it didn't really affect us that Michael Carter-Williams left Syracuse for the draft.)



James Kelly (transfer)
Raphael Akpejiori (graduation)
Rion Brown (graduation)
Erik Swoope (graduation)
Garrius Adams (graduation)
Donnavan Kirk (graduation)


Sheldon McClellan (transfer from Texas)
Angel Rodriguez (transfer from Kansas State)
Ivan Cruz Uceda (juco)
Ja'Quan Newton (freshman)
James Palmer (freshman)
Omar Sherman (freshman)

It seems weird that a team that was so widely known for losing so many seniors last offseason would go through the same thing yet again.  Of their top seven scorers, Miami gets back only two.  McClellan and Rodriguez are terrific pickups on the transfer market, though, and the Canes' recruit class is at least solid; Newton is the top member of the group.  They could very well improve on their 7-11 league mark from last year and might be set up even better for '15-'16.



James Michael McAdoo (early entry)
Leslie McDonald (graduation)


Theo Pinson (freshman)
Justin Jackson (freshman)
Joel Berry (freshman)

Let's face it: McAdoo was a big contributor, but a replaceable one.  Did anyone really ever say, "man, we really gotta gameplan to stop that McAdoo guy"?  McAdoo and the UNC '13-'14 season went hand-in-hand: big numbers and they did things that made you think they could be great, but you watch 'em enough and they stop really being all that scary.  UNC gets Marcus Paige back and another major-league recruiting class, and will take another shot at the ring next year, probably a better one than they had this year.



T.J. Warren (early entry)
Tyler Lewis (transfer to Butler)
Jordan Vandenberg (graduation)


Abdul-Malik Abu (freshman)
Caleb Martin (freshman)
Cody Martin (freshman)

Hard to say from here whether the Pack will move forward or backwards; Warren was a tremendously prolific scorer (the dude took over 650 shots this year) and Lewis's transfer thins out the backcourt rather considerably.  There's a good recruiting class on the way, though.  This team will just have to learn to spread out the scoring some now that Warren won't be around to lean on.



Eric Atkins (graduation)
Garrick Sherman (graduation)
Tom Knight (graduation)


Martin Geben (freshman)
Matt Farrell (freshman)
Bonzie Colson (freshman)

This wasn't a good season for the Irish, and losing Atkins and Sherman to graduation will really sting.  They'll have only one of their big three scorers back.  The freshman class is respectable, not spectacular, but there's promise there; Geben is a guy that Tony Bennett pursued pretty heavily.  The big acquisition isn't technically an acquisition; the Irish expect to get Jerian Grant back from his academic-related absence.  He was scoring 19 ppg before he had to leave the team.



Lamar Patterson (graduation)
Talib Zanna (graduation)


Tyrone Haughton (juco)
Sheldon Jeter (juco)
Cameron Johnson (freshman)
Ryan Luther (freshman)
Shaquille Doorson (freshman)

Out the door are Pitt's top two scorers, rebounders, and minutes-eaters.  UVA won't be sorry to see the back side of Zanna after the outstanding game he had against us in Greensboro.  Pitt has a large recruiting class because they got hit harder than you'd expect by transfers just before arriving in the ACC; it also explains why they ran with a short rotation this year.  But the class is undistinguished in the accolades department, and the Panthers probably won't be considered as big a contender as they were this past season.



Jerami Grant (early entry)
Tyler Ennis (early entry)
C.J. Fair (graduation)
Baye Moussa Keita (graduation)


Chris McCullough (freshman)
Kaleb Joseph (freshman)

Cuse is a huge contender for the title of "most talent lost", even considering the haul that Duke saw walk out the door.  Three of those guys played over 30 mpg and two of them topped 35.  Fair was 12th in the country in minutes played (as a percentage of team's total.)  The freshman class is small but highly talented, so Cuse may again struggle with a short rotation.  Very hard to see them having another big undefeated run like they did, but they're still outside contenders for the title.



Teven Jones (transfer)
Joe Harris (graduation)
Akil Mitchell (graduation)


Isaiah Wilkins (freshman)
B.J. Stith (freshman)
Jack Salt (freshman)
Marial Shayok (freshman)

You know all this, but, for comparison's sake, see.  I haven't included redshirt freshmen or otherwise redshirted players besides transfers in the other rosters, so I didn't include Devon Hall here, but once again, sorting out the minutes will be like trying to stuff ten pounds of shit in a five-pound sock.  And that's if neither Devonte Graham or Sviatoslav Mikhailyuk decide to sign here.  I'm trying not to let my homerism cloud this too much - it would manifest itself in the assumption of faster and better development of our holdovers than those of other teams - but suffice to say anyone who thinks UVA will follow Miami's path from year to year will be disappointed.



James Johnson (fired)
Trevor Thompson (transfer to Ohio State)
Marquis Rankin (transfer)
Cadarian Raines (graduation)
Jarell Eddie (graduation)


Buzz Williams (new coach - from Marquette)
Ahmed Hill (freshman)
Satchel Pierce (freshman)
Justin Bibbs (freshman)
Jalen Hudson (freshman)

Nobody wants to hear this, but Buzz Williams was a grand-slam hire in Blacksburg; not only does he offer a huge upgrade in the coaching box, but he brought two terrific recruits with him from Marquette in Hill and Pierce.  Eddie and Raines were decent pieces to a puzzle, but everyone the Hokies lost is replaceable.  The holdover talent was already good enough that I was suggesting VT could rise to the middle of the conference in a year or two; add in a suddenly very good recruiting class (which before was utterly forgettable) and you'd have to think it's time to buy stock in VT basketball again.  They're not going 2-16 next year.



Jeff Bzdelik (fired)
Arnaud William Adala Moto (transfer)
Travis McKie (graduation)
Coron Williams (graduation)


Danny Manning (new coach - from Tulsa)
Shelton Mitchell (freshman)
Rondale Watson (freshman)

They could've had the whole team transfer out and the "out" list would still be addition by subtraction.  Wake AD Ron Wellman's operation of this team was absolutely appalling; letting his elementary school buddy Bzdelik coach the team aimlessly into the wilderness after the short rope he gave Dino Gaudio rightly infuriated every single fan of Wake Forest basketball.  McKie was a good player, but so badly misused (underused, really) by Bzdelik that it almost doesn't matter he's leaving.  Wake still has some good pieces left, didn't get hit too badly in the transfer market, and brings in a very good point guard in Mitchell, so they ought to be able to get out of the doldrums some.


In no particular order except alphabetically by school, here are the league's top ten departures:

K.J. McDaniels (Clemson)
Jabari Parker (Duke)
Rodney Hood (Duke)
James Michael McAdoo (UNC)
T.J. Warren (NC State)
Lamar Patterson (Pitt)
Tyler Ennis (Syracuse)
Jerami Grant (Syracuse)
C.J. Fair (Syracuse)
Joe Harris (Virginia)

Honorable mention goes to Okaro White, Ian Miller, Daniel Miller, Ryan Anderson, Tyler Thornton, Akil Mitchell, Eric Atkins, and Talib Zanna.

And the top ten freshmen, in the order they appear in the Rivals 150:

Jahlil Okafor (Duke)
Tyus Jones (Duke)
Justin Jackson (UNC)
Justise Winslow (Duke)
Theo Pinson (UNC)
Chris McCullough (Syracuse)
Joel Berry (UNC)
Greyson Allen (Duke)
Shaqquan Aaron (Louisville)
Quentin Snider (Louisville)

It stands to reason, though, that they're not all gonna be household names next year, simply since so many of them are stacked up on the same team.  Others to keep an eye on, who have a chance to make a major impact on their team:

Ahmed Hill and Satchel Pierce (VT)
Ja'Quan Newton (Miami)
Donte Grantham (Clemson)
Martin Geben (Notre Dame)
Tadric Jackson and Myles Autry (GT)
Sheldon Mitchell (Wake)
Angel Rodriguez (Miami - not a freshman, but still one of the league's top newcomers.)


Brian said...

Nat Dixon is a football recruit. For whatever reason, he's also listed under hoops. I doubt he'll play two sports though.

Anonymous said...

I'm going to be rather surprised if we land either Graham or Mikhailyuk. Seems like a long-shot right now. Even then, we're at, what, 12? It's still a loaded roster, with an odd scholarship spread (1 senior/sophomore (Atkins/Perrantes), 5 juniors (Anderson, Brogdon, Tobey, Gill, Nolte), and 4 freshmen plus Devon Hall).

I really wonder if we use multiple redshirts this year, as a lot of the guys are at similar positions. Actually, the best thing for player and school would be for Nolte to take a year off. I have my doubts that he forces his way into the starting lineup, and as such, he's looking logjammed for PT. A year off gives him separation from the junior class, let's UVA develop a freshman big (likely Wilkins), and gives him a chance at decent PT his senior year.

I have to think 1 of the freshmen will be redshirted. Early guess has to be on one of the bigs as PT will be tough to come by there.