Here is the prediction if Harvard beats Penn:
And here is the prediction if Penn beats Harvard:
I am of course making the completely bonkers assumption that Duke will not lose to Boston U. this afternoon. If that happens, ok, well, I guess Duke is the 2 seed or something.
Mostly these predictions are the same, as you'd expect. Notably, the similarities are:
-- The play-in games
-- Albany at the #3 seed
-- The seed order of Maryland, ND, Cornell, UVA
-- The seed order of Duke and Cuse
-- UVA/Denver, Cornell/UNC
And the main differences:
-- Hofstra is out if Harvard wins.
-- Penn and Loyola swap seeds depending on whether Penn wins or loses.
Do I think the committee would rematch Hopkins and Loyola? I bet they would, given the chance. First-round rematches are not taboo and I'll take a stab at the thinking that a rematch so soon would be a little extra ratings juice.
Also note: there are strong arguments for the order of the 5-8 seeds, but almost equally strong ones for shuffling that around entirely. UVA having beaten both Cuse and Loyola is one of them; the reason I have UVA down at the bottom of that pecking order is that those wins were months ago and recency does matter somewhat. This is a tougher season than usual, though, for getting the seeds right. Penn and Loyola aren't airtight 3 and 4 seeds, either. Last year I got seeds 1 through 5 exactly right; this year, it wouldn't surprise me if I got all eight seeded teams right but the wrong order entirely. Let's see what happens when the rubber hits the road. Lot of bitching, probably; the question for me is whether or not I join in.