James Madison
Colonial Athletic Association
'13-'14 record: 11-20 (6-10)
'13-'14 postseason: None
'13-'14 KenPom: .2864 (8th of 9 CAA, 265th of 351 nat'l)
Conference projections: (out of 10)
Preseason poll: 5th
ESPN: 7th
SI: 8th
KenPom: 7th
Preseason ratings: (out of 351)
KenPom: .4098 (221st)
Hanner: .3689 (254th)
Chances of winning: Extremely high
This is a team in shambles. JMU has no seniors, got slammed by transfers during the offseason, and of the players that did return, two will still miss the UVA game, having been suspended about a month ago. One is top scorer Andre Nation, who's far and away JMU's best player when on the court, but he can't seem to stay out of the doghouse. Throw in the suspension of Tom Vodanovich, the transfer of Taylor Bessick, and the graduation of Andrey Semenov, and JMU will also be awfully light on experienced big men. Add in the horrendous three-point shooting, and things do not look bright. Those preaseason ratings assume Nation will be around - he won't, not for a while - and the Dukes are much more likely to finish closer to the more pessimistic projections. Even without London Perrantes and Evan Nolte, both suspended for the opener, and even playing this game on the road, the Hoos should roll.
Norfolk State
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
'13-'14 record: 19-15 (11-5)
'13-'14 postseason: CIT 1st round
'13-'14 KenPom: .3104 (4th of 13 MEAC, 253rd of 351 nat'l)
Conference projections: (out of 13)
Preseason poll: 4th
ESPN: 3rd
SI: 10th
KenPom: 4th
Preseason ratings: (out of 351)
KenPom: .2864 (278th)
Hanner: .1468 (339th)
Chances of winning: Near-lock
I approve, by the way, of going on the road to play JMU. Road wins help your RPI the same whether it's Duke or Somalia State, so boosting your RPI by taking an hour-long bus ride to play a team who doesn't have a snowball's chance, that's an easy decision. For teams like Norfolk State, a roadshow would make even more sense. Take the game to a neutral site like Scope - an easy pitch for Norfolk State - and get out in front of the fans (and, not coincidentally, recruits) around the state. If, say, you happen to be recruiting a future five-star player, and that future five-star player happens to go to school about a 15-minute walk from said neutral-site arena, this hypothetical kind of game could only help.
But I digress. Norfolk State. There's a funny outlier in those projections, and I suspect it's because Hanner's ratings don't take transfers into account as much as a human poll voter might. NSU lost six sizable contributors to graduation, including very talented scorer Pendarvis Williams, and brought in a number of transfers to help fill those gaps. Where their scoring will come from now is anyone's guess, though. They do get back their point guard, Jamal Fuentes, and PF RaShid Gaston is a heck of a rebounder.
South Carolina State
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
'13-'14 record: 9-21 (5-11)
'13-'14 postseason: None
'13-'14 KenPom: .0926 (13th of 13 MEAC, 345th of 351 nat'l)
Conference projections: (out of 13)
Preseason poll: 12th
ESPN: 12th
SI: 8th
KenPom: 11th
Preseason ratings: (out of 351)
KenPom: .1293 (339th)
Hanner: .1862 (323rd)
Chances of winning: Lock
Presenting the worst team on the schedule. The MEAC is a really bad conference and SC State made a habit of getting blown out by their conference-mates last year. They couldn't shoot a lick, turned the ball over constantly, and lost to graduation almost everyone with an O-rating that was even approaching halfway decent. The only thing that kept them from being KenPom's worst offense in the country was their offensive rebounding; the Bulldogs crash the glass awfully hard. Of course that meant transition opportunities for their opponents, but hey. Featuring wing Devin Joint in the offense more than they did last year could help, but if this team scores 50 on Tony Bennett's pack-line, it'd be a major upset.
George Washington
Atlantic-10 Conference
'13-'14 record: 24-9 (11-5)
'13-'14 postseason: NCAA 9 seed; lost in 1st round
'13-'14 KenPom: .7845 (5th of 13 A-10, 47th of 351 nat'l)
Conference projections: (out of 14)
Preseason poll: 2nd
ESPN: 3rd
SI: 4th
KenPom: 4th
Preseason ratings: (out of 351)
KenPom: .7403 (62nd)
Hanner: .7330 (62nd)
Chances of winning: Good, but no guarantees
Interesting matchup, considering that this is the might-have-been from last year's tournament; GW played Memphis fairly tight in a well-matched 8/9 game that the Colonials made interesting at the end. They've got a good shot at getting back to this year's tourney, too. A couple high scorers are gone, but GW spread the scoring around so much that they should be able to absorb the losses just fine. Center Kevin Larsen is a load inside, and he and wing Patricio Garino are very efficient interior scorers. Kethan Savage can really get to the rim as well, and has a pretty good midrange game. Point guard Joe McDonald does a nice job running the show. Garino was a first-team selection to the preseason all-conference team, and Savage, third team.
GW plays good defense too. If they have a weakness, it's outside shooting, as over three-fifths of their attempts have graduated, and even more of their makes. Along with that goes free-throw shooting; they weren't much last year and the leftover players were the ones bringing them down. Still, the Colonials are well-rounded with good depth, and are easily the biggest test of the early season.
Tennessee State
Ohio Valley Conference
'13-'14 record: 5-25 (4-12)
'13-'14 postseason: None
'13-'14 KenPom: .2371 (9th of 12 OVC, 260th of 351 nat'l)
Conference projections: (out of 12)
Preseason poll: tied for last
ESPN: 12th
SI: 12th
KenPom: 11th
Preseason ratings: (out of 351)
KenPom: .2058 (311th)
Hanner: .1306 (346th)
Chances of winning: Massive
Another team that Hanner puts at the very dreggy bottom of the country due largely to roster losses; the thing about Tennessee State, though, is that everyone else basically agrees. Exactly one scholarship player returns after a coaching change: undersized shooting guard Jay Harris, who doesn't shoot well at all but at least takes care of the ball. The rest of the team is jucos and freshmen. All that turnover makes it pointless to look at what they did last year, although the five-win season certainly seems repeatable.
La Salle
Atlantic-10 Conference
'13-'14 record: 15-16 (7-9)
'13-'14 postseason: None
'13-'14 KenPom: .6226 (10th of 13 A-10, 105th of 351 nat'l)
Conference projections: (out of 14)
Preseason poll: 7th
ESPN: 7th
SI: 7th
KenPom: 8th
Preseason ratings: (out of 351)
KenPom: .6387 (101st)
Hanner: .6557 (98th)
Chances of winning: Good to very good
If you do enough digging, you can find me on record saying I'd like for our OOC schedules to feature more teams from conferences like the A-10. (And actually, George Washington is one of the teams I had most in mind.) I'm getting my wish this year for sure; this is the second of four A-10 teams. This is the first round of a mini-tournament in Brooklyn, so depending on the outcome of this one, we'll play either Rutgers or Vanderbilt the next day. So, probably Vanderbilt, though they're not what they were a few years ago.
La Salle made a deep tourney run a couple years ago, but the A-10 got awfully tough last year and the Explorers couldn't keep up. Almost every backcourt minute from last year is gone, so La Salle will be a much more interior-oriented team this year. Jerrell Wright and Sam Zack are excellent rebounders and provide a challenge up front, and Wright is a beefy guy who's tough to guard. Auburn transfer Jordan Price, once a biggish name as a recruit, is going to have to pick up a lot of backcourt slack, though. La Salle simply won't be able to duplicate the scoring they once got on the perimeter.
Maryland
Big Ten Conference
'13-'14 record: 17-15 (9-9)
'13-'14 postseason: None
'13-'14 KenPom: .7972 (6th of 15 ACC, 40th of 351 nat'l)
Conference projections: (out of 14)
Preseason poll: 10th
ESPN: 8th
SI: 6th
KenPom: 7th
Preseason ratings: (out of 351)
KenPom: .8190 (33rd)
Hanner: .8198 (33rd)
Chances of winning: Decent
You just know those assholes at ESPN marked this game down for the ACC/B1G Challenge the moment the Twerps announced their move to the Big Ten, and told the conferences to schedule it. Don't give the defending ACC champs a top-tier opponent or anything.
Maryland got slammed with transfers over the offseason, losing familiar names like Seth Allen, Nick Faust, and Shaq Cleare. Five players in all left for different pastures. Maryland may not have Evan Smotrycz for the UVA game, either, as he'll be nearing the end of his recovery time for a broken foot. The team is being rebuilt around Smotrycz, plus veterans Dez Wells and Jake Layman, who are being surrounded with one of the country's more highly-regarded recruiting classes. The class is highlighted by shooting guards Romelo Trimble and Dion Wiley, top-10 or -12 at their position, both.
The game is dangerous since it's on the road, I guess giving the legendarily rude Maryland student section a chance to shake newspapers that say B1G on them or something. UVA should still be favored, though.
VCU
Atlantic-10 Conference
'13-'14 record: 26-9 (12-4)
'13-'14 postseason: NCAA 5 seed; lost in 1st round
'13-'14 KenPom: .8865 (1st of 13 A-10, 17th of 351 nat'l)
Conference projections: (out of 14)
Preseason poll: 1st
ESPN: 1st
SI: 1st
KenPom: 1st
Preseason ratings: (out of 351)
KenPom: .8650 (17th)
Hanner: .8640 (18th)
Chances of winning: Tossup
The second tough road challenge in a row for UVA, and both the last road game of the OOC and last game before the dreaded finals break. VCU is no longer a novelty; they're unanimously considered the class of a tough conference and a top-25 team. They'll bring mostly the same team that beat UVA on its own home court last year. Treveon Graham could be one of the nation's highest-scoring players, given the pace at which VCU prefers, and Briante Weber is only a decent scorer but led the country in steals percentage. A little more time to gel than we had last year should be a big help, but being on the road (even only an hour away) against an almost certain tournament team like this one makes this the toughest test of the OOC schedule.
Cleveland State
Horizon League
'13-'14 record: 21-12 (12-4)
'13-'14 postseason: CIT 1st round
'13-'14 KenPom: .6818 (2nd of 9 HL, 88th of 351 nat'l)
Conference projections: (out of 9)
Preseason poll: 2nd
ESPN: 2nd
SI: 2nd
KenPom: 2nd
Preseason ratings: (out of 351)
KenPom: .6809 (89th)
Hanner: .6503 (103rd)
Chances of winning: Very good
That Viking is peering over the wall to see if Will Sherrill is gone yet. Sherrill used Cleveland State as a springboard to a full-fledged spot in the rotation, way back in Tony's first year, mercilessly raining threes on them in Cancun, Mexico. He's not suiting up any more, but CSU also has a few losses of their own that they'll have to overcome if they want to live up to their rep as "league favorite if not for Green Bay." Prolific scorer Bryn Forbes transferred on up to Michigan State, and incredibly efficient sharpshooter Jon Harris graduated. Cleveland State still returns a lot of points per game, but not that much efficiency, and could underperform because of it.
Midget point guard Charlie Lee would have an O-rating through the roof if he'd stick to shooting jumpers, but top returning scorers Trey Lewis and Anton Grady have a bit of that volume scorer in them. Plus, Grady's a fouler, as is wing Marlin Mason, in line for a big minutes increase to help replace Forbes. Cleveland State is a popular pick to do very well in their league, but they're not much of a match for UVA, and I think they're at risk of not living up to those expectations.
Harvard
Ivy League
'13-'14 record: 27-5 (13-1)
'13-'14 postseason: NCAA 12 seed; lost in 2nd round
'13-'14 KenPom: .8435 (1st of 8 Ivy, 32nd of 351 nat'l)
Conference projections: (out of 8)
Preseason poll: 1st
ESPN: 1st
SI: 1st
KenPom: 1st
Preseason ratings: (out of 351)
KenPom: .8267 (30th)
Hanner: .8294 (30th)
Chances of winning: Respectable
Like VCU, Harvard is the unanimous pick for champions of their conference, and not just because the rest of the Ivy plays at usual Ivy League levels. You get that privilege when you beat Cincinnati in the NCAA tournament and then return most of your core.
The really notable thing about Harvard is actually their defense; specifically, they're good at defending and getting steals without fouling. That goes especially for their backcourt combo of Siyani Chambers and Wesley Saunders, the latter of whom is the reigning Ivy POY, a big, lanky guard expected to both carry the scoring load and shut down opposing scorers. The Crimson also get really good all-around play from forward Steve Moundou-Missi, who can rebound a ton and not only draws a lot of fouls, but shoots the resulting free throws very well too.
The other interesting thing is that it's the second might-have-been game of the OOC season; Harvard actually had a short-lived second-half lead (following a furious rally that ended around the seven-minute mark) on Michigan State in their tourney game last year. It's too bad we don't play the Sleeping Eagles of Winthrop, as we have in years past - that's who Coastal Carolina beat in their Big South championship game.
Davidson
Atlantic-10 Conference
'13-'14 record: 20-13 (15-1)
'13-'14 postseason: NIT 7 seed; lost in 1st round
'13-'14 KenPom: .5928 (1st of 11 SoCon, 120th of 351 nat'l)
Conference projections: (out of 14)
Preseason poll: 12th
ESPN: 12th
SI: 11th
KenPom: 13th
Preseason ratings: (out of 351)
KenPom: .5483 (139th)
Hanner: .5727 (133rd)
Chances of winning: High
Being the class of the Southern Conference for a very long time earned Davidson an impressive step up in conference affiliation, perhaps the biggest leap of any team in conference realignment. They also managed to make the move at the most inopportune time: after graduating De'Mon Brooks, who came in just shy of 20 ppg last year.
The A-10 is a tough conference to get ahead in, but the Wildcats might just have a chance. Guards Tyler Kalinoski and Brian Sullivan are ready to take on the featured roles; it was actually those two, and not Brooks, who performed best in the loss to UVA last year. Jordan Barham shot .644 from two last year, in relatively limited minutes, and should also be ready to step up some.
That said, Davidson also is going to rely on a long list of freshmen as well, which is partly what causes all the punditry to drop them so low - that, and a defense that isn't what you'd call stout. If they fix that defense, I think they could move closer to the middle of the conference pack than these projections have them, but the A-10 is a conference that splits its teams between national contender and mid-major statuses, and Davidson is definitively the latter.
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The bottom line with this schedule: I like it lots. The riffraff is kept to a minimum. You should always include some dreggish guaranteed wins, but I'd only put four or five teams in that category, which is fine. Then you have a few semi-challenges, and four that I'd call really interesting matchups. Including (sigh) Maryland. The reason I'm bitchy about that is that it deprives us of a marquee game, which this schedule lacks. There's no one to get a hype machine started, which is what something like MSU would've accomplished. The closest thing to a marquee attention-getter is VCU.
Regardless, a successful run against this schedule will look good come resume time. Going undefeated against it isn't out of the question; 11-1 or 10-2 would still be just fine for the selection committee. There are several teams here that will rip through their conference schedules, or at least are expected to, which fluffs up the ol' RPI. Five of the twelve games (including the Rutgers/Vandy game) are on the road or at neutral sites, accomplishing the same. We're doing things that I think we should do all the time - go on the road inside the state, play teams from DC and Philly, pick opponents who are beatable by us but not by most teams in their conference. Bring it the hell on.
1 comment:
Oops! "Major upset" alert!
UVA-SCState: 75-55.
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