weekend review

We're going to kick this one off with Senior Seasons first; that way I can't write the whole post and then chicken out and punt it to Tuesday again.

Good Counsel 21, St. John's 7: Brendan Marshall was a perfect seven for seven for 102 yards and Good Counsel will advance to the WCAC final against - who else - DeMatha.  Good Counsel is 10-1.

A.L. Brown 69, Hickory Ridge 55: Keeon Johnson and Kannapolis got revenge for their first in-county loss in decades, and Johnson had a whopping 12 catches for 116 yards and (kind of surprisingly given the score) one touchdown.  Johnson missed the first game against this team with turf toe.  Brown is 10-3, and advances to the third round.

Ocean Lakes 34, Granby 3: Ocean Lakes had no trouble advancing.  That's the good news.  The bad news is that they'll have to go the rest of the way without Corwin Cutler, whose torn-up knee put a premature end to a phenomenal season.  Ocean Lakes is 11-0.

Oscar Smith 35, Bayside 12: Smoke Mizzell ran for 175 yards on 20 carries and played a lot of defense too, but Zach Jones and Oscar Smith handled Bayside pretty easily.  Bayside finishes their season at 8-3; Oscar Smith is also 8-3 and advances to face Salem.

Salisbury 35, Avon Old Farms 28 (Sadiq Olanrewaju) - Salisbury is 8-0
Gilman 20, McDonogh 8 (Micah Kiser) - Gilman is 8-2
Urbana 24, Damascus 23 (Zach Bradshaw) - Damascus is 10-1
St. John's Prep 21, BC High 16 (Jack McDonald) - BC High is 3-6
South Iredell 47, Pisgah 8 (LaChaston Smith) - South Iredell is 11-2
Houston Bellaire 30, Houston Westside 23 (Hipolito Corporan) - Westside is 6-4
Fork Union 45, Benedictine 27 (Malcolm Cook) - FUMA is 9-2
Jackson Liberty 21, Monsignor Donovan 0 (Brad Henson) - Donovan is 5-3

Seasonal breakdowns are as follows:

-- 2 regular seasons are still going on, sort of.  BC High has a rivalry game on Thanksgiving weekend, but they're 3-6 and whatever form of playoffs they might have qualified for, they didn't.  Monsignor Donovan (Brad Henson's team) has one game next week, and once again I'm blowed if I can figure out what the hell goes on in New Jersey.

-- 3 seasons are done.  Zach Bradshaw and Damascus were upset as heavy favorites in the first round, and somebody had to lose between Smith and Bayside and Bayside it was.  Bradshaw and Taquan Mizzell join Jack English on the sidelines.

-- 4 championship games are next weekend.  FUMA plays in the VISAA Division I final against Liberty Christian.  Gilman has the MIAA championship against Calvert Hall, whom they beat 24-14 a few weeks ago.  Salisbury plays in the Jack Etter Bowl, which is the NEPSAC Class A championship, against Phillips Exeter.  And of course, there's the WCAC Good Counsel-DeMatha game.

-- 7 teams continue - or start - their playoff roll.  In North Carolina they're in the 3rd round, where South Iredell will play Bandys and A.L. Brown plays Charlotte Catholic.  South Iredell played Bandys about a month and a half ago, and won 24-13.  Brown has not played Charlotte Catholic this season, but they're fairly familiar playoff opponents; Catholic is a semi-powerhouse.  In fact, Catholic trekked up to Baltimore earlier this season, where Gilman and Micah Kiser beat them, 37-14.

The VHSL playoffs truck into the second round, and it's Ocean Lakes vs. Western Branch; Potomac vs. Mountain View; Oscar Smith vs. Salem; and Varina vs. Meadowbrook.

In Texas, the first round begins next weekend, and Houston Westside takes on Houston Memorial in the first round.  Let's hope Hipolito Corporan stays committed long enough for us to care about this playoff run.

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From Old Virginia Ballot - Week 11

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	1
2	Oregon Ducks	3
3	Kansas St. Wildcats	--
4	Alabama Crimson Tide	-3
5	Florida Gators	-1
6	Texas A&M Aggies	1
7	Florida St. Seminoles	-1
8	Stanford Cardinal	1
9	Oregon St. Beavers	-1
10	Nebraska Cornhuskers	1
11	South Carolina Gamecocks	1
12	LSU Tigers	1
13	Ohio St. Buckeyes	-3
14	Georgia Bulldogs	1
15	Oklahoma Sooners	2
16	Clemson Tigers	-2
17	UCLA Bruins	-1
18	Texas Longhorns	--
19	Michigan Wolverines	5
20	Arizona Wildcats	--
21	USC Trojans	--
22	Northwestern Wildcats	-2
23	Oklahoma St. Cowboys	2
24	Wisconsin Badgers	--
25	Rutgers Scarlet Knights	--
Dropouts: Penn St. Nittany Lions, North Carolina Tar Heels, Texas Tech Red Raiders

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »

Say, it's a Blogpoll ballot.  We had a thin pool of teams to choose from this week.  Four teams (UNC, WVU, PSU, TCU) were banished for picking up a fourth loss.  6-4 isn't good enough to be considered, with one exception to be discussed later.  Ohio and Toledo, who were at the bottom of the pecking order anyway, dropped out because 8-2 is only good enough if you've got a win over a Big Five team that's .500 or better.  OK, Ohio does, but they lost this week and were rock bottom before and not real likely to move up as a result of losing to Bowling Green.  And Mississippi actually should've been out last week.  No qualifying win on their schedule, either.  Of all the teams that dropped off the edge, the highest-ranked was Penn State at 19th, and most were perennially well outside the top 25.

After adding Arizona back (the aforementioned exception) on account of a commonsensical suggestion in last week's comments (it seemed wrong to drop them from 11th to nowhere), the eligibility pool stood at 30.  That makes it a lot easier and faster, for one thing.  It means that Wisconsin and Rutgers are basically the beneficiaries of sticking around (and Wisconsin is bloody lucky Minnesota is bowl-eligible.)

About the ballot itself, I once again had to shove Florida down below the title contenders, although Oregon ended up legitimately in the top three this time.  (They were #5 last week.)  I think this is because of a somewhat improved outlook on vanquished opponents Washington and Arizona.

I was less inclined, this week, to move Nebraska below Ohio State, and ultimately, I obviously didn't.  Ohio State was, up til now, the beneficiary of not having had a bye week; now everyone has had one, and so for all intents and purposes, nobody has, except those like Oklahoma that've had two.  So OSU took a slight fall.  Besides, despite the records and the head-to-head outcome, this is justifiable.  Nebraska's top five wins: Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn State, Northwestern, Michigan State.  OSU's: Nebraska, Penn State, Central Florida, Michigan State, Illinois.

Next week the eligible pool will probably grow again; I consider 7-4 with a qualifying win good enough.


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Newsbits:

-- The "new BCS" is starting to take its final form.  Truthfully, it's not that different from the old one.  I'll have a more comprehensive user's guide tomorrow.

-- The men's soccer team has their 32nd straight bid to the NCAA's, and will host an opening-round game against Lafayette.  The ladies trounced La Salle in the first round, and advance to play Rutgers at Klockner this Friday.

-- Hooptyball has started the season 1-1; the lack of a point guard is showing.  A lot.  But they did lock it down on defense tonight against Fairfield, and will play Delaware tomorrow in the Preseason NIT second round.  The good news is that if we do end up having a marginally tourney-worthy season, the committee will likely take into account Jontel Evans's injury in considering that George Mason game.

-- LOLVT.  Enjoy this video of wide receiver Marcus Davis taking a page from the Jeff Allen Instruction Book of Effort, and never blocking anyone.  And then for further giggles, you can read Davis's response.  My personal favorite: "You can't block in the back.  That's obvious."  Of course, they start off in front of you, but never mind that.

hurricane mike

ACC expansion is generally seen as a necessary evil, something we could do without and yet must have in order to prevent even worse outcomes.  And yet it's not without its perks.  We don't get to see much of Clemson or NC State any more, but 12 games a year have to be played against somebody.  The somebody that has replaced traditional yet unremarkable (in the sense that nothing especially historic has ever happened against them, unless you had some kind of nostalgia for a decades-long losing streak to Clemson) opponents is Miami.  It's a funny pairing.  I don't remember particular details of most of the BCS championship games that've occurred since its inception, but I do remember quite a bit of the one Miami played in, against Ohio State, including where I was at the time (home from school for the holidays, at a friend's house playing poker) and never in my wildest dreams did it occur to me that the powerhouse Hurricanes would, in less than a decade, figure more strongly than almost any other team in UVA lore of the 21st century.  "UVA owns Miami" would've exploded my mind at the time.  They were on another plane back then.

That's a slightly misguided meme, actually, as we're only 5-4 against them since ACC expansion.  They won the first two matchups (three if you count the mid-90s bowl game) and not that long ago, demolished the Hoos so badly (52-17) that the ripple effects from the game went backward two days in time and caused me to write this, likely the most accurate game preview I've ever penned.

But slightly misguided is still only slightly.  UVA horned in on 70 years of Miami history by making their last game in their venerable old stadium a memorable one, if not exactly in the way the in-attendance Hurricane dignitaries hoped.  And the Hoos now carry a three-year winning streak against Miami, utterly unthinkable in the glamour days of The U.  The way in which the latest entry finished up eroded most of whatever personal resistance I had left to the "we own them" meme.

It's hard not to think that way when Miami is responsible for some of the best memories of the London era, to say nothing of one of the top three games of the Groh era.  A UVA team that would eventually finish 1-7 in conference play dominated a top-25 Miami squad thanks in part to the best hit of John-Kevin Dolce's career.  Mike Rocco hit Perry Jones between the numbers on a simple slant and the Miami defense forgot to be anywhere near the ball, leading to technically the longest touchdown throw of Rocco's career.  And then......that.

"That" is what happened on Saturday.  Rocco hit Darius Jennings and Jake McGee for near-identical touchdowns, making Miami the fourth victim of Rocco's heartbreaking ways.  They fall in line behind Indiana, Penn State, and Florida State.  Resilience is in this man's character, winning his countenance and mien.  There's a reason I don't fall all over myself for scout-wowing spirals.  The best thing in a quarterback is what Rocco has: the inability to enter a game behind on the scoreboard and conceive of the possibility of losing.

I told you on Thursday I wasn't ready to believe in fairy tales, and then the fairy tale fairy, who does not like my attitude, gave us a football game right from the Brothers Grimm.  Now there's only two ways we can go from here: all the way up or all the way down.  Which you think will happen depends on how long you've been a UVA fan and whether you've learned any lessons in that time.

Further items in brief.....

-- I guess we might as well get used to the quarterback platoon.  I'm a pretty firm believer in not screwing with what's working (which is a big part of the reason I was all pro-Rocco to begin with.)  The coaches did the right thing, however, in breaking the rotation at the end and sticking with the hot hand; Rocco's final drive marked the first time all game that either quarterback had had three series in a row, not counting the clock-killing handoff to finish off the first half.

-- Maybe it's because I'm an ACC fan that I didn't find the NFL's replacement refs to be so bad.  These guys constantly find new and amusing ways to make court jesters of themselves, the latest being a personal foul on "unknown player."  The safety was also a hideously bad call, and this particular crew must have a copy of the rulebook that omits any mention of facemask penalties.

-- Special teams continue to suck.

-- Dominique Terrell had a game and a half, did he not?  This is the first game we've seen our wide receiver recruiting efforts really pay off in the form of a terrifying passing assault.  Terrell, Darius Jennings, and Tim Smith all had huge catches and excellent games overall, supplemented nicely by McGee and E.J. Scott.  There's a reason we were really excited to reel those guys in, and that was it.

-- Second best tweet of the day: Michael Phillips' suggestion that a coaching rotation be implemented in which Groh coaches October and London gets November.  Undefeated season recipe right there.  Londonvember is really gonna be a thing if we somehow manage to go bowling, and don't tell me you didn't miss Grohtober just a little bit during the Maryland and Wake games.  Best tweet of the day: CavsCorner's Brad Franklin with "Seriously, Mike London is trolling Randy Edsall SOOOOOOO hard with these QBs." 

-- Steve Greer is gonna be missed more than any other graduating senior next year.

-- Of all the possible outcomes this season could have generated, the following is the least likely when viewed from back in August: UVA and Virginia Tech have identical 4-6, 2-4 records in November.  VT and Georgia Tech were considered the mainest challengers for the Coastal Division, and played to a 20-17 overtime battle in the first game of the season for each.  Who'd've guessed that the close score meant they both suck, not that they're both awesome?

Prediction review....

-- UVA extends Miami's streak of allowing 200 rushing yards one more game.  Somehow, we didn't manage this.  Good Lord, we didn't even make it to 100 and still scored 41 points.

-- Mike Rocco runs for at least 25 yards.  No, and in fact, he was sacked a couple times which took a big chunk out of the 17-yard gain he had early on.

-- For the second game in a row, Phillip Sims is the more effective passer.  Not even remotely.

-- Duke Johnson breaks off at least one big run or YAC reception.  Yes, thanks in part to one of the feeblest attempts at a tackle I've ever seen, even including punters.  Demetrious Nicholson could not have looked sillier on Johnson's first-quarter scamper.  Also, kick return DAMMIT.

That makes me 20-for-48, as well as 0-7-3 against the spread since the margin of victory was exactly the line.  This was one crappy game for Vegas.  They originally set the spread at Miami -3 and so much money flooded in on UVA that they swung the spread four points to UVA -1.  So they obviously lost a ton of money on those bets and then had to refund all the ones that came on once the spread settled at -1.  I'm also 4-6 straight up and probably never going to pick UVA to win again this season.  Briar patch and all that.

Programming note: this is a shortened week thanks to the game on Thursday.  Game preview runs on Wednesday with nothing scheduled for Thursday.  Game reactions on Friday, which is normally a vacation day.

game preview: Miami

Date/Time: Saturday, November 10; 12:00

TV: ABC

Record against the Canes: 4-5

Last meeting: UVA 28, Miami 21; 10/27/11, Miami, FL

Last weekend: UVA 33, NC State 6; Miami 30, VT 12

Line: UVA by 1

Injury report:

Virginia -

OUT FOR SEASON
S Pablo Alvarez, DT Marco Jones, WR Mario Nixon

OUT
DE Diamonte Bailey, DE Eli Harold

DOUBTFUL
None

QUESTIONABLE
K Ian Frye, DE Billy Schautz

PROBABLE
DT Chris Brathwaite, DT Vincent Croce

Miami -

OUT FOR SEASON
LB Ramon Buchanan, RB Eduardo Clements, OL Ben Jones, WR Malcolm Lewis, WR Robert Lockhart

OUT
DB Deon Bush

DOUBTFUL
LB Denzel Perryman

Redemption November continues.....hopefully.  Last week's game was evidence the Hoos have a pulse, and maybe more.  It was proof of what happens when things go right instead of all wrong.  Now we'll see if it was a mirage or a trend.  Miami comes to town fresh off a big win of their own, and they have their eyes on a division title.

-- UVA run offense vs. Miami run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 128 carries, 618 yards, 4.8 avg., 4 TDs
Perry Jones: 104 carries, 389 yards, 3.7 avg., 2 TDs

UVA offense:
141.44 yards/game, 3.95 yards/attempt
80th of 124 (national), 7th of 12 (ACC)

Miami defense:
246.22 yards/game, 5.13 yards/attempt
109th of 124 (national), 12th of 12 (ACC)

Those are some awful numbers there on the Miami side of things.  They're no accident.  It's not like a couple of really good teams got in there and screwed up the stats.  Miami gave up only 96 yards to Boston College in their season opener, and then everyone else has been able to do whatever the shit they want.  Nobody since has run for less than 200 yards.  Even Bethune-Cookman.

They've had some key injuries this year.  LB Ramon Buchanan suffered yet another knee injury, ending his season after two games.  LB Denzel Perryman is their third-leading tackler, has been playing most of the year on a high ankle sprain, and will probably miss this one.  That leaves the Canes awfully thin at linebacker.  The only steady presence they've had all season is OLB Eddie Johnson, a redshirt freshman who makes his share of plays.  The rest have been in and out of the lineup and not especially effective.

The UVA coaches have started to tilt the carries in favor of Kevin Parks, which is some proper sense-making because Parks has clearly been the more effective running back.  A new wrinkle came online last week: Mike Rocco as a running QB.  There might be something to exploit here; Collin Klein at K-State ran for 71 yards, and despite the rout of the Hokies, Logan Thomas racked up 124.  Rocco won't be flirting with either number, but a couple QB draws appeared on the play sheet last week and they'll probably stay there this week.

I would expect Bill Lazor to look at those stats and start thinking about ways to extend that 200-yard streak.  Scheming around Eddie Johnson and DE Shayon Green is probably the way to do it; these are Miami's top two tacklers, and it's decently impressive to see that out of a defensive end.  If Miami lines them up on the same side it'll make life much easier.  UVA ran for 248 yards against NC State's much better run defense last week, so I don't see why they can't hit 200 again this week.

-- UVA pass offense vs. Miami pass defense

Quarterbacks:
Phillip Sims: 92/165, 55.8%; 1,115 yards, 8 TDs, 4 INTs; 6.76 yards/attempt
Mike Rocco: 107/184, 58.2%; 1,285 yards, 8 TDs, 8 INTs; 6.98 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Darius Jennings: 35 rec., 464 yards, 2 TDs
Perry Jones: 34 rec., 304 yards, 0 TDs

UVA offense:
270.7 yards/game, 6.9 yards/attempt
83rd of 124 (national), 10th of 12 (ACC)

Miami defense:
244.2 yards/game, 8.1 yards/attempt
108th of 124 (national), 10th of 12 (ACC)

Also crazy underperformance in this aspect of the game.  Unlike the run game, however, where Miami just bends over for any ol' body, you have to have a good, efficient passing game to take advantage of the Canes pass defense.  They held Logan Thomas in check, and UNC's Bryn Renner too, the latter of which goes to show that even good quarterbacks can have a bad day against this defense.

Sometimes, though, they get torched.  Boston College and NC State each passed for well over 400 yards.  E.J. Manuel had a nice, efficient day.  The problem is, we don't have the air game these teams do.  You know I don't like the quarterback platoon, but Mike London has promised to stick with it at least for one more game, which probably means two series and switch, just like last week.

Injuries have hit the Miami secondary too, as promising freshman Deon Bush is out for this game.  Miami will go with Kacy Rodgers in his stead.  At cornerback, Ladarius Gunter is one of the bigger corners in the conference at 6'2", but neither he nor Brandon McGee is any threat to pick up any conference honors.  Gunter has only broken up three passes this year; McGee has five, which is decent, but compare to Tre Nicholson's 11.  And Bush was a better pass defender than Rodgers.

At defensive end, Anthony Chickillo was supposed to be one of the league's top pass-rushing threats, but he's only got two sacks on the season and is slowly giving up playing time to Jalen Grimble.  Shayon Green is a run-stopping DE and will come out of the game on passing downs for Tyriq McCord, a freshman pass-rusher who the Canes really like.  He's not a big guy at all, checking in at 236 pounds similarly to Eli Harold, and could give our underperforming tackles some trouble.

That said, Miami's pass rush isn't real scary overall.  With just 10 sacks this year they're near the bottom of the standings in that regard.  Very little threat is posed by the interior line; Chickillo and McCord and the occasional blitz are all that worry me, and we've dealt with better.  If the bye week fixed a lot of problems, it's fair to hope the pass protection is included, as the line only gave up one sack to NC State's quality pass rush.

I don't know what the heck is going to go down with this rotation.  I think it saps the effectiveness of both QBs, myself.  But there's a reason I've been light on the Bill Lazor criticism this year.  Lazor found a way to effectively manage Marc Verica and set him up for success, and Verica had more than a few limitations on his talent.  I think he did a similarly good job against NC State, and you have to at least admit that right now, we've got two quarterbacks that do different things well.  Maybe, just maybe, Lazor knows what the hell he's doing here.  Just because I don't think it works great doesn't mean it can't, and Miami certainly has a defense ripe for exploitation.  At worst, we'll see the old UVA that could move the ball but not score, and after that, just find the end zone, right?

-- Miami run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Duke Johnson: 94 carries, 555 yards, 5.9 avg., 6 TDs
Mike James: 110 carries, 477 yards, 4.3 avg., 5 TDs

Miami offense:
130.11 yards/game, 4.37 yards/attempt
62nd of 124 (national), 6th of 12 (ACC)

UVA defense:
133.89 yards/game, 3.85 yards/attempt
48th of 124 (national), 5th of 12 (ACC)

Here is the challenge for UVA's defense.  Its name is Duke Johnson.  Johnson's health and durability are the only thing keeping Miami in the realm of mediocrity in the run game.  (That and they have an inexplicably pass-heavy offense.)  He's a small back with decent power and scary moves.  Johnson and Mike James are a very solid big/small combination; James weighs 220 pounds and is a very capable workhorse.

Additionally, the Miami O-line is solid and has a lot of continuity.  Four of them have started every game this season, and one-time super-recruit Seantrel Henderson has finally, to the relief of Miami fans, locked down the fifth spot at right tackle.  He and left tackle Malcolm Bunche are simply enormous, giving Miami an advantage on the edge.

So it's a heck of a test.  Florida State and Kansas State both shut down the Miami defense, but those are BCS teams.  Of course, your weekly Georgia Tech game reminder goes here: we have a top-ten-in-the-country run defense without it.  We'll have to get it done without some of our depth, though; Eli Harold will miss the game, and Billy Schautz is slowly working his way up the injury report, but I wouldn't test his ankle against those big-ass tackles; Henderson is 340 pounds and Bunche is 325.

Still, this is strength on strength.  Of the four game areas, this one is where both teams are at their best.  Whoever comes out on top here is most likely going to win this game.  UVA must keep Duke Johnson in front and well-contained; space to operate is a bad thing and once he gets you sideways, he's got you beat.  James I'm not worried about; the main concern is not giving up any big plays, which means a lot of gap discipline on Johnson and balancing the need to contain and corral with the need to avoid sitting on one's heels and waiting for him to make a move.  I think at some point we'll get burned, as we don't have FSU's athletes.

-- Miami pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Stephen Morris: 192/339, 56.6%; 2,382 yards, 12 TDs, 7 INTs; 7.03 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Phillip Dorsett: 36 rec., 545 yards, 3 TDs
Rashawn Scott: 35 rec., 512 yards, 3 TDs

Miami offense:
277.4 yards/game, 7.0 yards/attempt
77th of 124 (national), 9th of 12 (ACC)

UVA defense:
207.3 yards/game, 6.4 yards/attempt
30th of 124 (national), 2nd of 12 (ACC)

Remember how in the past I've been saying "everytime our opponent runs the ball it's a tiny little win for UVA"?  This looks like the opposite.  Miami has a pass offense that reminds me a lot of NC State.  They pass more than they should, they spread the ball around, and heavily include the tight end and running backs.  Differences: much better pass protection, a (slightly) worse quarterback, and more of a willingness to go deep.

Miami will probably test the defense with three-wide sets.  They have good size on the outside with Rashawn Scott at 6'2" and Allen Hurns at 6'3".  Slot receiver Phillip Dorset is the team leader in most categories, though.  As for Morris, he's OK.... I guess.  He started off the year much better than he's finishing it, and though he's thrown 12 touchdowns, five of them came in one game, against NC State.

The difficulty will be establishing the same kind of synergy that led to last week's dominant performance, and doing it against a much better offensive line.  Miami has kept Morris clean this year, allowing only 12 sacks.  Will the secondary look as good in coverage if the line isn't able to generate the same kind of pressure?  If they can get to Morris as consistently as they got to Glennon, we'll have just as easy a day, but that's a tall order, particularly without Harold.

-- Outlook

You want to know the truth here?  I have no idea what the hell about anything.  Should I assume UVA is the team that stank up October, or the one that just went out last weekend and set up a traveling carnival in NC State's backfield?  Can we call the special teams fixed-ish after one game?  (Actually, I think I know that one.  No.)  Is optimism the result of seeing the world through the lens of the last game, which everyone always does?  What about pessimism - that could be the same thing, given Miami's demolition of the Hokies last week, and they had a real shot at knocking off Florida State, too.  Can their defense really be that bad?

The fairy tale is this: Challenged by their coaches and captains, UVA really is on a resurgence.  They're on a mission to reclaim their season, and, being not yet mathematically eliminated from a bowl, they're moving toward one full speed.  They'll meet hated rival Tech with both teams at 5-6, in a mini-playoff where the winner gets a bowl game and the loser goes home, and the game will be in hostile territory but UVA will come in fired up and on a hot streak, while Tech will be deflated and miserable from a terrible season and wishing they were anywhere else but a football field.  That's the story.  And it's lingering on the edges of plausibility, not because the Hoos beat NC State, but because of the dominating, trench-owning way they did it.

But I can't help my nature.  I like evidence and realism.  I'm optimistic, but rarely a believer in fairy tales until they start looking real.  And this season I'm once bitten, twice shy; I talked a lot of optimism early on and was rewarded with uninspired play on offense and pathetic special teams.  I'm keeping it sober until shown otherwise.  Come on over here and toss me in that ol' briar patch again.

-- Prediction summary

-- UVA extends Miami's streak of allowing 200 rushing yards one more game.
-- Mike Rocco runs for at least 25 yards.
-- For the second game in a row, Phillip Sims is the more effective passer.  (Subjective, I know, but I'll judge this one strictly.)
-- Duke Johnson breaks off at least one big run or YAC reception.

Final score: Miami 27, UVA 21

-- Rest of the ACC

Bye week: Duke

Florida State 28, Virginia Tech 22: This absolutely ensures that Tech doesn't go to a bowl game unless they beat UVA.

Georgia Tech at North Carolina, 12:30: GT really needs to win both this and the Duke game next week in order to go bowling, because their annual UGA game looms very large and unwinnable.

Wake Forest at NC State, 3:00: Winner is bowl-eligible.  Loser might not get there, especially if it's Wake.

Maryland at Clemson, 3:30: The only way this one is interesting is if they revert back to playground rules and Tajh Boyd gets to be all-time QB.

Boston College vs. Notre Dame, 8:00: Who the hell put 9-0 ND vs. 2-7 BC in prime time???

hoops preview, part 2

Part one, she is here.  With no further explanation needed, on with the show.

#12 - Joe Harris - Jr. SF

With the heart and soul of last year's team now playing for the Atlanta Hawks, here's the guy who needs to step up and help replace him.  By the sound of things - Harris has stepped up to take the freshmen under his wing - we should be fine.  The team belongs to Jontel Evans in the sense that Evans is the only senior who'll play (much), and he's the point guard, but he can't do it by himself.  As the primary scorer, part of that job falls to Joe Harris.

Harris is one of the few remaining pieces of Tony Bennett's vaunted initial six-man recruiting class, and very few would've pegged him as that class's star.  He was supposed to be an off-the-bench shooter; instead he's the best complete player on the team.  Harris will score in almost every way imaginable; he's got a surprisingly good handle for a 6'6" white guy, and can get to the rim, hit jumpers, finish off and-1s, and that handle plus his command of the offense makes it not inconceivable he could be called on to play some point-forward.  He's not very quick on defense - adequate, really - so he can't actually man the point and take over the full duties there, but he's versatile enough to play anything from 1 through 4 on offense.  (We're in trouble if we have to use him at the 4, and it makes him very obviously less effective, but it can be done.)

Last year his KenPom O-rating was an excellent 108.9, one of just three players on the team above 100, and he ended more possessions than anyone on the team except Mike Scott at 21%.  (Meaning, of the team's possessions while he was on the court, 21% of them went through him, to either shoot or turn it over.)  He'll be the go-to guy for the Hoos this year, and that's a good thing; the latter number will certainly go up, and we'll be in fantastic shape if his O-rating does too.

#13 - Anthony Gill - So. PF

If we have to lose a bunch of players to transfers, we might as well pick one up.  Gill is not eligible to play this year, as it's his enforced redshirt after transferring in from South Carolina.  He'll be great for our practice depth, though, and when he is allowed back on the court he'll be an extremely important piece.  Gill is a very well-rounded player who made his mark as a freshman, and can do all that a power forward is asked to do and chip in a little on three-pointers as well.

#22 - Malcolm Brogdon - So. SG

Because this is UVA basketball and we can't have nice things, the foot issue that sidelined Brogdon for the last four games of last season have carried over into this one, and Brogdon won't be available for the first part of this season.  It wouldn't surprise very much to see it linger into December.

It's not a stretch to call Brogdon the most important player on the team when he returns.  (If you want to make a case for Mike Tobey I won't argue.)  At times last season, Brogdon flashed the talent that made him UVA's most highly-coveted member of his recruiting class.  His tour de force was the Michigan game, where he scored 16 points and grabbed five boards.  But he also had that classic freshman inconsistency; he disappeared for stretches, and in fact had a rotten January, shooting 15-for-42 that month.

For UVA to achieve its potential, Brogdon's three needs to fall more than it did last season.  From the end of finals break in December to January 31, he was 6-for-28 on threes, which is 21%.  Outside of that he was 16-for-40, which is a much more exciting 40%, but his season average was a too-low .324.  Except for those times when he plays the point, Brogdon won't be asked to do much.  Defend his position and be a deadly secondary scoring option next to Joe Harris.  Oh, and handle the ball late in games, since he's a much better free-throw shooter than Jontel Evans.  But that's it; it's not much to ask, and hopefully the transition from freshman to sophomore year smooths out some of the bumps in his stat line.

#23 - Justin Anderson - Fr. SF

Commitment post

I don't think there's a player anyone's more excited to see than Justin Anderson.  Anderson is Tony's first bona fide five-star recruit (in fact, as far as I can tell he's UVA's first five-star recruit ever), stolen from Maryland when Gary Williams abruptly retired.  As is typical of fanbases stung by the loss of a star recruit, he was awesome til then, and overrated the second he chose Virginia.

Anderson has a talkative, ebullient personality, and his game and athleticism - which Dave Telep described as "hellacious" - are reflective of that.  His initial role will be as an off-the-bench spark plug, where he has potential to do just a ton of damage.  We'll probably see some high point totals early in the season, because when you're sending five-star athletic freaks against Morgan State's second-string, the results might not be fair.  The temptation will be high to demand his insertion into the starting lineup, but patience, young Jedi.  First we must see how he takes to the defensive scheme.  As the season wears on, we'll start to see the full picture, and probably some of the same inconsistencies that plagued Brogdon.  'S'ok.  The good moments will outweigh the bad, here.  Anderson could well work his way into the starting lineup; if he doesn't, it's either because he's not defending well enough or the guys ahead of him are playing really well.

#25 - Akil Mitchell - Jr. PF

Defender extraordinaire, and, the tales have it, one of the team's tiptop athletes.  In his freshman year, Mitchell was a defensive stopper only, and a good one.  Any scoring was an accident.  Last year, though, the shell started to come off.  Especially as January turned to February and February turned to March and Mitchell stayed healthy while the rest of the team turned up in a hospital ward.  Mitchell even produced a double-double in the ACC tournament loss to NC State, with 10 points and 12 boards.

With Mike Scott gone, UVA will look to Mitchell to unpeel that shell a little more.  His defense and experience will probably earn him a starting spot at first.  Of that starting five he's probably the last scoring option, but a scoring option nonetheless.  Last year he was largely a one-trick pony when it came to post moves, so if he's been able to diversify it can only help.

UVA will look to Mitchell to block mad shots; in that sense he's Assane Sene's replacement in the lineup, although shot-blocking is something Mitchell's always been able to do, having a big, long wing-span.  I wouldn't go so far as to say offensive production is a bonus; we'd like to see about six points a game here.  But even though his offense is improving, he's still a defender first.

#32 - Darion Atkins - So. PF

An interesting case.  Atkins spent the first part of last season suspended and then stayed in the doghouse for a short time after the suspension was lifted, making his debut six games in.  His minutes were basically fringe-rotation stuff until the depth started vanishing, at which point he started seeing his minutes increase.  Then he went all shot-blocky on fools.  He blocked multiple shots in six ACC games last year - including eight blocks in one five-game stretch - pretty damn good considering his minutes were still barely into double digits.  Atkins was eighth in total minutes played - a number which doesn't convey how far behind the leaders he was - and led the team in blocks anyways.

Here's the other weird thing: KenPom had his O-rating at a whopping 120.6, largely due to a .581 shooting percentage.  Small sample sizes and all, but man.  If his minutes and usage go up this season, that will go down, but the takeaway here is that Atkins is something of an enigma.  And that means we could be in for some surprises.

If Atkins proves a reliable presence, it'll do wonders for our interior depth.  Absolute wonders.  Without him, we're Tobey and Mitchell and a lot of small-ball lineups.  Like Mitchell, Atkins has an albatross's wingspan, and unlike Mitchell, always seems to be scowling on the court.  I figure the glowering is an asset for a shotblocker.  If he keeps bringing that eff-off-my-basket attitude to the court, his minutes could double and the shotblocking gives him a chance to be something of a cult hero.

**********************************************

The outlook for the season is interesting.  Being just on the wrong side of the bubble is kind of a fun place to be when you think about it.  I don't think anyone's going in with expectations too lofty.  But pull off a surprise or two early on, and things could be very different.  KenPom gives us a projected record of 16-12, 9-9 ACC, and that seems about right to me.  (And the GMU game is a projected loss, a great early chance to flip one part of the script.)  I don't think that would be good enough to get to the tournament, but you never know, and even then the NIT is not the worst fate in the world when you're mid-rebuild.

A nominal starting lineup should look like this:

PG - Jontel Evans
SG - Malcolm Brogdon
SF - Joe Harris
PF - Akil Mitchell
C - Mike Tobey

Off the bench, you have Justin Anderson, Darion Atkins, some combination of Evan Nolte and Paul Jesperson, and some combination of Teven Jones and Taylor Barnette.  Mix and match as appropriate.  For defensive purposes, Atkins and Mitchell can pair up in the frontcourt; for maximum scoring punch, try Nolte and Tobey and whoever has the hot hand between Brogdon and Anderson.  One of Jones or Barnette will back up Evans, and the other probably rides the bench.  Or, Brogdon takes the point if Bennett wants to go big everywhere; in that case, nobody less than 6'5" is on the court.

The ACC schedule doesn't have any long home or road stretches; never more than two of each at at time.  It finishes, as it should, with Maryland, at home this year.  There are no trips to Cameron; in fact, both NC State and Duke are one game only, and both at home.  And, at least as viewed from here in early November, no murderer's rows or any long easy stretches.  Most games likely to be brutal losses are followed by the BC's and VT's of the world.  As far as the ACC goes, it's a very balanced schedule for us, perhaps tilting slightly to the easier side.

And as examined last month, the OOC schedule offers a few chances to make a statement.  Wisconsin is a nasty draw in the ACC/B1G Challenge, but a visit from Tennessee offers a chance to beat a tourney-bound team within friendly confines.  Don't get too riled up if we end up in Hokieland when the bids are handed out, though; this is a building-block year for 2013-2014.

the recruit: Malcolm Cook

Name: Malcolm Cook
Position: S
Hometown: Richmond
School: Fork Union
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 200

24/7: 90, four stars; #22 S, VA #13
ESPN: NR
Rivals: 5.5, three stars; VA #26
Scout: NR

Other offers: none

Malcolm Cook is easily one of the more interesting prospects on the commitment list.  He counts as an under-the-radar sleeper, given that ESPN has not bothered to evaluate him and Scout doesn't even know he exists.  (Happens a lot, with Scout.)  And nobody besides UVA ever offered, although folks are a little nervous about Penn State since he took a visit there last week.

On the other hand, the gurus at Rivals and 24/7 are preaching the Gospel of Malcolm.  It's probably because of how he's been playing this year.  Actually it's definitely because of that.  A four-star rating from 24/7 could well be matched by one from Rivals when they get around to updating him; at the very least, a bump from the standard-issue 5.5 is on the way.  Cook's playmaking has been obvious.  The most recent numbers I could find are from a month ago, when he already had 11 picks, 3 of them taken to the house, and he's forced a bunch of fumbles, too.  Words like "program-changing" have been thrown around here, and I don't think they're kidding.

Position-wise, Cook's a safety, but it wouldn't completely shock me to see him grow into linebacker.  He's a big broad-shouldered guy that already weighs 200 pounds.  (Too big, and without the maneuverability for corner.)  He'd need, like, 25-30 more to get to linebacker size, so don't go thinking I'm predicting this, but it is on the edges of possibility.  But he'll be coming in as one of the bigger safeties in the program already, and ought to be able to find room for 10 pounds, easy.  Speed is one of his biggest assets, which is impressive given his size; at the UVA camp, he was timed at 4.4 in the 40.  I give you this number in case you care; I tend not to put any stock in 40 times unless they're electronic, not hand-timed, and there are a whole bunch of different players running in the same conditions for comparison's sake.  I'll never run around going WOOOOO 4.4 FORTY but I'm not gonna pretend he's not fast, either.

We've been duped in the past by big stats in senior years, but if Cook is all that's advertised, he'll put serious pressure on the current safeties when he gets here.  (Assuming he does get here; like I said, Penn State has people nervous.  I don't think there's anything to be alarmed about, though.)  Cook has one of the classic why-no-offers? flags: until this year he played for Armstrong in Richmond, a team that routinely gets its ass kicked.  As a safety it's hard to make any impact on a lousy team; even a D-lineman might be able to strut his stuff since other teams have no choice but to try and block him, but safeties are easily avoided.  I don't think he can come in right away and steal any starting jobs, but he's got potential to start off by further marginalizing Rijo Walker and Pablo Alvarez.  If the hype is for real, he's all-ACC.

********************************************************

I promised Senior Seasons and here it is, along with a rundown of playoff positioning for everyone so involved.

Damascus 35, Northwood 12: Zach Bradshaw had a quiet day with three catches for 44 yards, but Damascus polished off an undefeated regular season to finish 10-0.

South Iredell 69, West Lincoln 15: LaChaston Smith had 13 carries, literally more than half of which wound up in the end zone.  Smith had 191 yards rushing, and his 7 TDs are tied for second-most in an NC football game.  By the way, he threw for one too.  South Iredell is 10-2, and advances to the second round.

Ocean Lakes 60, Kellam 14: Corwin Cutler also helped wrap up an undefeated regular season, by throwing six touchdown passes.  Ocean Lakes is 10-0.

Fork Union 42, Woodberry Forest 10: Malcolm Cook recovered a fumble, which is at least his fifth of the year, and FUMA took the Prep League regular season title.  FUMA is 8-2.

Salisbury 31, Trinity Pawling 23 (Sadiq Olanrewaju) - Salisbury is 7-0.
Good Counsel 48, Archbishop Carroll 0 (Brendan Marshall, Kirk Garner, Andre Levrone) - OLGC is 9-1.
Potomac 19, Forest Park 0 (Donta Wilkins) - Potomac is 7-3.
Xavieran 21, BC High 17 (Jack McDonald) - BC High is 3-5.
A.L. Brown 41, North Forsyth 34 (Keeon Johnson) - Brown is 9-3 and advances in the playoffs.
Houston Westside 23, Houston Madison 0 (Hipolito Corporan) - Westside is 6-3.
Oscar Smith 42, King's Fork 35 (Zack Jones) - Oscar Smith is 8-2.
Collegiate 27, St. Christopher's 19 (Jack English) - St. Chris is 5-5.
Varina 21, Hanover 20 (Tim Harris) - Varina is 8-1.

The season status of our commitments is such:

-- 1 season is over (Jack English and St. Christopher's, who did not make the VISAA playoffs.)

-- 5 regular seasons are still going on.  That would be Sadiq Olanrewaju, Jack McDonald, Brad Henson (though I confess I'm generally at a loss half the time to figure out what the heck is going on with his season; New Jersey teams are notoriously difficult to find info for), Hipolito Corporan, and, because Virginia has a silly convoluted playoff system, Tim Harris and Varina.  They're playing for their playoff lives next weekend so even though they haven't technically made the playoffs yet, for all intents and purposes they've begun.

-- 7 teams will begin their playoff journeys this coming weekend.  Good Counsel plays St. John's in the four-team WCAC tournament.  FUMA goes against Benedictine in the VISAA playoffs.  Ocean Lakes takes on Granby (fun fact: I once lived about a mile from Granby) and Bayside drew Oscar Smith, which means at least one of our players is going home.  Gilman had a bye in their playoffs this past weekend and will play next weekend, and Damascus (Md.) starts their tournament against Urbana.

-- 1 team (Potomac) earned a playoff bye and will wait a week to learn their opponent.

-- 2 teams, both the ones in North Carolina, advanced to the second round.

A couple of basketball bits to quick-wrap this up.  One, George Mason suspended a couple of players for a few games, which of course means they won't be on the court against UVA Friday night.  I don't think either of them would've started, but they might've been the first off the bench.  Any hit to their depth is a help given the fact that we're not bringing any point guards to this fight.  Also, Joe Lunardi, who is typically down on UVA's tourney chances (and more often than not maddeningly right) has UVA as the eighth team out of his final preseason bracket.  I'd call that encouraging; for one thing, it means he considers UVA the sixth-best (or sixth-seeded) team in the ACC, one notch above the preseason media poll that had us seventh.  For another, that's obviously not that many spots in between us and an actual berth.  A surprise here and there and we could be looking at a tourney year when it was least expected.

weekend review

-- It's always fun to lead off with something like this.  UVA earned its first ACC championship of the '12-'13 season courtesy of the ladies' soccer team, who as the tourney's 5th seed traveled the toughest road possible (4th, 1st, and 2nd seeds) to get there.  And it might've also been the most satisfying way possible to win a title in women's soccer, knocking off the dynastic Tar Heels in the first round and blowing out Maryland in the championship.  Fantastic work.

To add the finishing touch, senior forward Caroline Miller is the ACC's offensive POY.  Why not reigning FOV co-Cav of the Year Morgan Brian, you might ask?  Brian is too good for her own good in this regard; she spent half the season in Japan helping the women's U-20 national team win their World Cup.  In fact, she scored a goal against Nigeria in the semifinals.

The Hoos play the first round of the NCAA tournament on Friday as a 2 seed, hosting La Salle.

-- Speaking of soccer, I decided to stop whining about not getting to see enough of it this past week, and also watched the men take on NC State on Thursday in the final regular season game.  That was fun, since the Hoos won 2-1 on an OT golden goal.  Not NC State's weekend for playing UVA.  It might have been easier, but Will Bates - whose game is all about finishing - was off his mark a few times, and missed a couple chances to slam home some easy ones.  He got a goal anyway when the Pack got called for an iffy handball in the box and UVA was awarded the penalty kick.

The ACC tournament starts tomorrow, and UVA visits their Official Postseason Bitch, Wake Forest, as the tourney's 6 seed.  Now they'd better beat the Deacons after I said that.

-- The football depth chart for the week seems to end Henry Coley's suspension, but not his time in the doghouse.  He's listed third, behind Daquan Romero and Demeitre Brim.  Romero played well enough on Saturday to make it easy for the coaches to dole out Coley's discipline at their own pace.

From Old Virginia Ballot - Week 10

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Alabama Crimson Tide	1
2	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	-1
3	Kansas St. Wildcats	--
4	Florida Gators	--
5	Oregon Ducks	--
6	Florida St. Seminoles	--
7	Texas A&M Aggies	--
8	Oregon St. Beavers	1
9	Stanford Cardinal	1
10	Ohio St. Buckeyes	-2
11	Nebraska Cornhuskers	3
12	South Carolina Gamecocks	1
13	LSU Tigers	2
14	Clemson Tigers	6
15	Georgia Bulldogs	3
16	UCLA Bruins	3
17	Oklahoma Sooners	6
18	Texas Longhorns	6
19	Penn St. Nittany Lions	6
20	Northwestern Wildcats	2
21	USC Trojans	-5
22	North Carolina Tar Heels	-5
23	Texas Tech Red Raiders	-11
24	Michigan Wolverines	--
25	Oklahoma St. Cowboys	--
Dropouts: Arizona Wildcats, Iowa St. Cyclones

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »

That my friends is a Blogpoll ballot, and there isn't a lot to talk about this week.  I was hoping that my system would spit out someone other than Alabama for the #1 slot so I could thumb my nose at the establishment, but alas, there they are.  The weird thing is that Florida came out tied for #1 - in fact, if I'd followed my rules to the letter, minus the part where I get to fudge things at the end if I want to, Florida would've earned the #1 vote.  That ain't right, so back down to #4 they go.  The top four came out far enough ahead of Oregon that I feel comfortable leaving the Ducks at #5.  So in that small way I do get to thumb my nose.

I'll tell you what though, I'm not the only one.  The BCS computers also have Florida fourth and Oregon fifth.  So ha.

I was also forced to flip-flop Ohio State and Nebraska.  Something about a 25-point margin of victory and giving up 63 points doesn't let me in good conscience put the Huskers ahead.

You see that Arizona and Iowa State were the only teams to drop out this week, and that's because they fell out of consideration entirely at 5-4.  They won't be back next week, either, because 6-4 isn't good enough.  Arizona's very weird.  #11 when in, but unable to stay in consistently.  NC State (hehe), Duke, Arizona State, and Cincinnati also dropped out of consideration; the former three because they're all 5-4, and Cincy because their qualifying win over VT got ruined by VT's losing record.  Kent State and Louisiana Tech debuted in the consideration pool (re-debuted in Lousiana Tech's case) and Kent State actually did OK, coming in 29th.  That said, it'll be a sad day indeed for the other teams in the pool if I end up ranking a team that lost by 33 to 1-9 Kentucky.

My excuse this week for shuffling Senior Seasons off til Tuesday - again - is that there's quite a bit of extra work involved this week.  Most of these teams are going to the playoffs, so I gotsta see how those schedules shake out.  Some states are easier than others to find, and the ballot takes up most of my time on Mondays.  Tomorrow, Senior Seasons will accompany the recruiting profile of one of the most interesting commitments on the board.

pack it in

So a lot of things went right yesterday.  Finally.  Not everything went right.  But finally, enough went right to cover up the mistakes.  It's amazing how you create your own breaks by playing well enough to earn them.  And whatever things did go wrong, 33-6 lets you ignore them.  Or at least rationalize them.

Of all the impressive things from yesterday, maybe the best of all is this: a coaching staff that kept a team interested in football even through a season-wrecking six-game losing streak.  They stayed interested enough that just maybe the fans will stay interested too.  On second thought, scratch the maybe; they played well enough that some people are actually talking about winning out.

That wouldn't be happening if the Hoos had squeaked through, Penn State-style.  Not only did a 2-6 team upset a likely bowl-bound one, they won by enough that fans of the formerly 2-6 and now 3-6 team are thinking about a bowl game themselves.  Huh?  It's crazy.  But maybe not that crazy.

That's how good the game really was.  Not just good - maybe sustainably good.  When you own the trenches, you can dictate a lot of things to a lot of teams.  When a team is motivated and angry, it matters.  When they're motivated and confident, it matters even more.  In a twisted way, it's enough to piss you off even more about the last couple games, because, like, where could we be if that had gone like this?

As they say, though, it is what it is.  The real beauty of this is that for a week, we're allowed our crazy thoughts.  Maybe it's really stupid to think we could win out and scrape our way into a bowl.  Maybe we shouldn't even be so damn excited about the thin possibility being 6-6 in the first place.  At least for a week, though, even if it's crazy it's conceivable.

Further things in brief:

-- There's no other way to open up actual game analysis than with the defense.  Of all the stats to emerge from this game, the best one is that they just about doubled their season sack total.  All season we've been fretting that poor pass rushing would lead to coverage breakdowns and vice versa.  Sometimes it's been true.  On Saturday it was the opposite.  The defensive line owned the trenches for every second they were on the field.  Lemme repeat that, because it's the #1 reason that it's OK to dream about winning the next three games: The defensive line owned the trenches for every second they were on the field.  And their job was made easier because the secondary played a very nice game, even inducing a coverage sack or two.  Sacks were recorded by Jake Snyder, Mike Moore (who singlehandedly destroyed one NC State drive), Brent Urban, Will Hill, and two by Chris Brathwaite.  Look at that list again; what do you notice about them?  Give yourself a cookie if you noticed that two-thirds of the sacks belong to defensive tackles.  Give yourself another one if you noticed how spread-out the action was.  This adds up to total domination.

-- And then, after snagging only one interception all season, the secondary broke out with three.  It's amazing how easy it can be to win a game when you're the one getting the takeaways.  One each for Maurice Canady, Ant Harris, and Eli Harold, the latter being another example of that synergy between pressure and coverage.  If there were coverage sacks, that was a pressure interception, and fine job on that play as well by Daquan Romero who was right on the ball and batted it to Harold.

-- Are the coaches slowly pulling back on the RB platoon?  Kevin Parks got 25 carries to Perry Jones's 11, and was extremely effective carrying the water.  Then again, Jones had six receptions, so it's not like he's being phased out.

-- Speaking of platoons.  Stop it.  You already know which position I mean.  Mike Rocco was 12-for-23 and probably would've been better if he wasn't always coming into the game cold.  Phillip Sims' 8-for-10 day could've been a lot bigger with all the snaps.  I know Rocco came right in and directed a TD drive, but this doesn't work overall.  It screws with the receivers, trying to adjust to two different ball styles.  It screws with the quarterbacks, taking their heads in and out of the game.  I know that both Rocco and Sims can make throws the other can't, but a better solution would be to teach Sims the throws he can't make.

-- Mike Glennon spent a lot of the day picking himself up off his ass, and the NC State O-line spent the whole day getting owned.  But I nominate Wolfies' cornerback Dontae Johnson as the guy who'd most like to forget Saturday.  Johnson was the guy burned on Tim Smith's long touchdown, Johnson was the guy that Perry Jones(!) blew up next to the sideline, and Johnson was one of the guys that Mike Rocco(!) juked off his soles to convert a 3rd-and-10 with his feet.  Ouch.

-- I freaking love safeties.  The eff-you-up-in-the-end-zone kind.  Best play in football.

Prediction summary:

-- Phillip Sims completes either less than 50% or more than 60% of his passes.  I wish he had thrown more so that it didn't look like I got this on a small-sample-size technicality, but he was 8-for-10.

-- UVA doesn't have a run play of more than 15 yards.  Actually there were several.  Hell, Rocco almost had one.

-- Sims is sacked at least three times.  Sims was under more pressure than I'd have liked to see, but ultimately State only registered one sack.  That's pretty good considering the Pack's solid pass rush.

-- Our running backs average at least half a yard per carry more than State's.  By, like, so much.

-- At least twice during this game, something happens on special teams that makes me try and reach through the monitor to strangle someone.  This one's a yes, and here's why.  Number one was a missed field goal from 22 yards, which might've been prevented by taking a delay-of-game penalty.  Even so you can't miss those.  Can't.  Number two was the punt where we got the ball back on a fumble.  That was the telltale sign that this was one of those days where everything just went our way, but it didn't have to be such a long return if a couple people had paid attention to the ball.  Ignoring the returner isn't exactly good fundamental football.  And the punt was terrible too.  Vozenilek had probably his worst punting day all season, in fact.

Another 3-for-5 puts me at 19-for-44, 43%.  It's a good thing I'm not betting on our games, cause I'm 0-7-2 ATS and 4-5 straight up.  Oh, how I hate being proven wrong.  Oh please do not do that to me again.  Please, Bre'r Fox, don't throw me in that ol' briar patch.

game preview: NC State

Date/Time: Sat., November 3; 12:30

TV: ACC Net., ESPN3

Record against the Pack: 21-34-1

Last meeting: NCSt. 28, UVA 14; 10/22/11, Charlottesville

Last weekend: UVA bye; UNC 43, NCSt. 35

Line: NC State by 10.5

Injury report:

Virginia -

OUT FOR SEASON
S Pablo Alvarez, DT Marco Jones, WR Mario Nixon

OUT
DE Diamonte Bailey, DE Billy Schautz

DOUBTFUL
None

QUESTIONABLE
RB Clifton Richardson

PROBABLE
DT David Dean, K Ian Frye, CB Drequan Hoskey

GOT THEIR ASSES SUSPENDED, WAY TO GO GUYS
FB LoVante' Battle, LB Henry Coley, TE Jeremiah Mathis

NC State -

OUT FOR SEASON
G Zach Allen, DT Jacob Kahut, LB Michael Peek, RB James Washington, DE Forrest West

OUT
CB Jarvis Byrd

DOUBTFUL
None

QUESTIONABLE
None

PROBABLE
None

If all had gone as it was supposed to, we'd either be bowl-eligible by now, or needing this one more to get there.  This has not happened.  The easier portion of the schedule has come and gone, and now the Hoos are staring down the barrel of a winless ACC season.  That would be something of a disaster, as it would also mean a 10-loss season, and regardless of whether you or I think it should, it would turn up the heat a notch on Mike London's seat.  The upcoming four-game stretch, therefore, is no longer about bowl eligibility and all about looking marginally respectable.  For a given definition of "respectable."

-- UVA run offense vs. NCSt run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 103 carries, 503 yards, 4.9 avg, 3 TDs
Perry Jones: 93 carries, 322 yards, 3.5 avg, 2 TDs

UVA offense:
128.13 yards/game, 3.74 yards/attempt
92nd of 124 (national), 7th of 12 (ACC)

NCSt defense:
138.0 yards/game, 3.74 yards/attempt
44th of 124 (national), 4th of 12 (ACC)

Guess there's no need to overanalyze this one.  Based on past performance I calculate that UVA will average exactly 3.74 yards per carry on Saturday.

Maybe you want something more in depth, though.  The thing about NC State's run defense is that it would be absolutely horrible if they didn't have a very good, veteran defensive backfield.  Senior safeties Earl Wolff and Brandan Bishop are the team's tackle leaders, and you have to go all the way down to ninth on the tackles list before you find any defensive linemen.  Juston Burris is the team's fifth defensive back (and no, the Pack don't run a 3-3-5) and even he is ahead of the D-linemen.

When you have to rely so much on your back seven, you're going to get a lot of inconsistency, and that's what's happened.  Furthermore they've given up some big games to opposing running backs in their last three contests.  Giovani Bernard, Wes Brown, and Chris Thompson all ran for over 100+ yards.  That streak will end on Saturday, because all three had workhorse-level workloads, and UVA splits the carries too much for anyone to have 100 yards, short of there being an 80-yard play somewhere, which there won't.

Still, I expect to find at least a little bit of running room.  With Parks averaging almost five yards a carry, that hasn't been too much of a problem lately, and when you don't have a good defensive line you lose the advantage you might have against UVA's O-line.  The main concern I have is linebackers shooting gaps; Wake found ways to do this with some consistency last game, and State's LB Rickey Dowdy has nine TFL this season from the weak side.  Plus, Wolff and Bishop know what they're doing and won't be fooled by Phillip Sims's not-good play-fakes, making it all the more likely they'll be able to crash the front lines and hold running plays to minimum yardage.  Parks will get his yards (Jones I'm increasingly less sure about) but he'll have to grind them out.  I don't expect anything longer than about 15 yards at the most.

-- UVA pass offense vs. NCSt pass defense

Quarterback:
Phillip Sims: 84/155, 54.2%; 1,000 yards (exactly!), 7 TDs, 4 INTs; 6.45 avg.

Top receivers:
Darius Jennings: 29 rec., 407 yards, 1 TD
Perry Jones: 28 rec., 258 yards, 0 TDs

UVA offense:
279.8 yards/game, 7.0 yards/attempt
72nd of 124 (national), 10th of 12 (ACC)

NCSt defense:
278.1 yards/game, 8.4 yards/attempt
115th of 124 (national), 11th of 12 (ACC)

This was not what I expected to see out of the Pack.  Before the season I pegged them as the top secondary in the conference; obviously that ain't true.  And those numbers are even more astounding considering that they actually have a pretty effective pass rush.  If they didn't have 24 sacks those numbers might even be worse.  (Yes, sacks end up in the rushing totals.  Still, all that pressure, you'd think it'd help with the rest of the operation.)

Clearly, this pass rush is the #1 concern.  Oday Aboushi and Morgan Moses have been absolutely brutal lately.  DE Darryl Cato-Bishop is the primary pass rush threat, but State has 13 different players with a sack.  UVA barely has half that many sacks, period.  DT T.Y. McGill can also be disruptive, and the Pack like to blitz as well.  Phillip Sims has been under a lot of pressure lately and doesn't handle the rush especially well - sometimes fine, sometimes not - so it'd be awfully nice if UVA can find a way to keep the grass stains off his shirt.

The other problem is that Sims and timing routes haven't been a happy combination.  Combine that with an inability to pass block for longer than 1.7 seconds, meaning deepish downfield routes don't have time to develop, and you see why the pass offense has been leading the all-out charge to the basement.

Out in the secondary, David Amerson has recovered somewhat from an absolutely horrible nationally televised season opener against Tennessee, and has four interceptions.  He's still a top corner, but prone to inexplicable breakdowns, probably because of his gambling.  He has so many picks - this year and last - because he breaks very well on the ball, but he's susceptible as hell to stop-and-go routes, and safeties Wolff and Bishop can sometimes be overaggressive against the run.

You'd think, therefore, that play-action would be a great way to beat the Pack.  You'd be right.  That being the case, let's hope Sims's play fakes have improved, because he can be awfully lazy with them.  Things could be good if they have.  That said, I'm at a loss what to expect here.  Mostly I expect the pass rush to fluster Sims, because I haven't seen a lot of evidence that our tackles are the NFL-ready machines we thought they were.  Beyond that, though, this is a very boom-or-bust matchup.  I have a feeling Sims will either be horrible or awesome.

-- NCSt run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Tony Creecy: 95 carries, 385 yards, 4.1 avg, 3 TDs
Shadrach Thornton: 59 carries, 298 yards, 5.1 avg, 2 TDs

NCSt offense:
122.38 yards/game, 3.30 yards/attempt
109th of 124 (national), 9th of 12 (ACC)

UVA defense:
148.25 yards/game, 4.10 yards/attempt
63rd of 124 (national), 7th of 12 (ACC)

There are biblical names like David and Jacob which everyone knows and uses.  Then there's Shadrach Thornton, whose parents showed a very admirable attention to biblical detail.  I have no idea if his brothers are named Meshach and Abednego.

Thornton's presence on the field is the result of the Pack having to dig very deep to find some running backs.  James Washington missed a lot of time with an ankle injury, got back on the field against UNC, and promptly wrecked his knee.  And the Pack sat Mustafa Greene a while ago for being a twat and kicked him off the team a couple weeks ago for being a bigger twat.

That brings it down to Creecy and Thornton.  Thornton has the gaudier average, but a lot of that was racked up against The Citadel, and actual alive run defenses the last three weeks have shut him down.  Creecy will be the workback; he's a little bigger than Thornton, and the offense has been tilting in his direction lately, even when Washington was back.

NC State has a veteran interior line, which ought to be getting better results in the run game, but they're also not anyone's idea of all-conference players.  Not bad, not great, and the same holds true for the State backs, even before Washington and Greene left the scene.  The whole thing is straight vanilla: good enough to help supplement the pass game, and not much more.

Our own run defense will probably take a hit without Henry Coley.  I think there's a prevailing sentiment that we'll be OK, but I worry; Daquan Romero doesn't have half of Coley's experience.  I wouldn't be surprised to see State test Romero early, and run at his side to see what he's got.  Otherwise, we should be fine.  Believe it or not, this is a top-20 run defense in the country If You Take Out The Georgia Tech Game (a phrase I've used enough by now to officially deserve capitalization.)  As with most games this season, every time they run and don't pass, it's a tiny little win for us.

-- NCSt pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Mike Glennon: 191/330, 57.9%; 2,455 yards, 19 TDs, 9 INTs; 7.44 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Quintin Payton: 34 rec., 603 yards, 1 TD
Bryan Underwood: 28 rec., 460 yards, 10 TDs

NCSt offense:
306.9 yards/game, 7.4 yards/attempt
54th of 124 (national), 7th of 12 (ACC)

UVA defense:
208.6 yards/game, 6.8 yards/attempt
46th of 124 (national), 4th of 12 (ACC)

If I didn't know any better, I'd say those were some damn good numbers for a 2-6 team.  The conventional wisdom is that a senior quarterback like Glennon will carve us up.  He might just do that, as I'm not sure the pass defense passes the eye test just yet.  The cold hard stats are very nice, but the defense has gotten burned a bit at very bad times.

NC State presents a challenge.  Few teams in the country pass more than they do; they're 13th in total pass attempts.  And they spread the ball around very well.  Like UVA, they use their running backs extensively (a potential point in our favor since our defense ought to be well-practiced against that stuff.)  Tight ends Mario Carter and Asa Watson have 18 and 16 catches, respectively, another test for newly minted starter Romero on the strong side.  And they have a deep corps of receivers.  When I saw that someone had 10 TD catches - that was the first thing that jumped off the stats page, for obvious reasons - I thought, "oh, a tall dude or a tight end or something."  Nope, it's Bryan Underwood; he's a leetle guy.  He, plus Quintin Payton and Tobais Palmer (every time I write this guy's name I think "damn typos" but no, it's Tobais) are all frequent targets of Glennon.  Payton is huge; the other two are small.

Glennon is coming off of a 467-yard performance against UNC, and he did it completing only 29 of 52 passes.  He might've topped 500, but this happened.  I wouldn't count on that as a defensive strategy, but it's nice to know we're not the only team in the ACC with that issue.

Not many teams we've played are willing to include so many players in the passing game.  That'll be the toughest test for this secondary of ours, plus Romero.  But the interesting part is this: the Pack are not very good at protecting Glennon (in fairness, a lot of pass attempts means a lot of sacks, so it's not a complete indictment of their O-line that they're near the bottom of the country in sacks allowed) and our coaches have been committing more playing time on the D-line to younger players with more explosiveness.  Eli Harold is listed as a starter, and Chris Brathwaite and David Dean (who got his first career sack against Wake Forest) have been making more appearances.  Pressure on Glennon is a must, obviously, or he'll pick us apart.  Probably he will at intervals here and there anyway, but there's a chance here to limit the damage.

-- Outlook

What I've just typed makes the game look winnable.  That is until you take into account our very special teams.  If we could get into a fair fight with our opponents we might at least be 4-4.  The offense isn't too functional, but if special teams didn't piss away half our games, the defense wouldn't always be given short fields to work with.  You'd like to hope the bye week was used to sharpen up the special teams focus and erase some of the physical and stupid mental mistakes, but evidence must be seen before we can declare it to be true.  Until then, it's safest to assume that unit will continue to shit the bed with the lights on.

-- Prediction summary

-- Phillip Sims completes either less than 50% or more than 60% of his passes.
-- UVA doesn't have a run play of more than 15 yards.
-- Sims is sacked at least three times.
-- Our running backs average at least half a yard per carry more than State's.
-- At least twice during this game, something happens on special teams that makes me try and reach through the monitor to strangle someone.

Final score: NCSt 26, UVA 13

-- Rest of the ACC

Florida State, North Carolina byes

Miami 30, Virginia Tech 12 (Thursday) - There's a very, very good chance VT will be fighting for bowl eligibility in our Thanksgiving matchup.

Georgia Tech at Maryland, 12:30 - Maryland's QB situation is like if we had to start Demeitre Brim at QB with Jake McGee as backup.  Only they had tried to redshirt the freshman linebacker they're putting under center, and would like, if possible, to redshirt the freshman tight end acting as backup.  And he'll still probably rack up 35 on GT's defense.

Boston College at Wake Forest, 3:30 - BC's win over Maryland last week, in which they killed off (no, not literally) the last surviving Maryland quarterback, put UVA right on the inside track for the ACC basement.

Clemson at Duke, 7:00 - Duke has never played in a prime time game because the last time they were good nobody had yet conceived of the idea that you could use electricity to light up the outdoors.  Both teams are attempting to keep pace in their respective division races, but Clemson actually needs the game more I cannot believe I just wrote that.