game preview: Wake Forest

Date/Time: Saturday, October 20; 12:30

TV: ACC Net., ESPN3

Record against the Deacons: 34-13

Last meeting: Wake 28, UVA 17; 11/8/08**, Winston-Salem

(**I never miss an opportunity to remind you that this is stupid and the fact that the ACC is doing nothing but exacerbating the situation is stupider.  My last football season as a student was 2003.  If you had told me that I would graduate, and then UVA would play Wake Forest twice between then and 2012, which is exactly what has happened, my jaw would've hit the floor.  Are we in the same conference or what?)

Last weekend: Md. 27, UVA 20; Wake Forest bye

Line: UVA by 3.5

Opposing blog: Blogger So Dear

Injury report:

Virginia -

OUT FOR SEASON
S Pablo Alvarez, DT Marco Jones, WR Mario Nixon

OUT
DE Billy Schautz

DOUBTFUL
None

QUESTIONABLE
OT Morgan Moses

PROBABLE
DT Justin Renfrow, WR Tim Smith

Wake Forest -

(pending)

Such is my appreciation for you readers that I just spent the afternoon watching the Tigers sweep the Yankees and win their 11th American League pennant, and I have put off getting shitty drunk and dancing naked in the streets just so I could write you this post semi-on-time.  (This is not to say that this is a sober post, mind you.  A number of posts over the years have been brought to you by the juice of the barley or some other fine liquid intoxicant.  This is one of them.)  Anyway, the Hoos host Wake Forest in the final game before a badly-needed bye week.  Silly me, I thought I could spend this bye week examining bowl possibilities.

-- UVA run offense vs. Wake run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 93 carries, 475 yards, 5.1 avg., 3 TDs
Perry Jones: 86 carries, 318 yards, 3.7 avg., 2 TDs

UVA offense:
139.57 yards/game, 4.04 yards/attempt
82nd of 124 (national), 7th of 12 (ACC)

Wake defense:
206.33 yards/game, 4.49 yards/attempt
84th of 124 (national), 9th of 12 (ACC)

I'm no coach, but it sure looks like Kevin Parks is taking over - if he hasn't taken over - the primary tailback role here.  The way things have gone at tailback this season, that's a good thing; Perry Jones has been weirdly inconsistent and indecisive, not at all what you'd expect after seeing him play last year.  Parks, on the other hand, has seized the opportunity.  He's been looking like the guy who changed the North Carolina high school record book to one page that just says KEVIN PARKS.  To top it off, lately he even looks like a better pass-catcher than Perry has.

Wake suspended a host of players for the Maryland game two weeks ago, but it looks like they'll be back, with the exception of a couple more dunderheads who were suspended this week.  By and large it won't affect anything, however.  Wake isn't really good at defending the run regardless.  They play a 3-4, but instead of asking their nose tackle (Nikita Whitlock) to gum up a bunch of space, they want him to use his excellent quickness to get into the backfield and force running backs outside, where the linebackers will theoretically go find them.  The problem this year is that Whitlock has been slowed by a bum ankle.  Normally his job is to line up right over the center and make the center guess which way he's going, but with that ankle, even if the center guesses wrong he can still recover and get a block on Whitlock.  This has turned Wake's run defense problematic.

It even offers a slight glimmer of hope that UVA's biggest issue can be fixed: that of suddenly turning incompetent inside the 20 and being utterly unable to gain one yard when one yard is needed.  Maybe, just maybe, if Whitlock's ankle is causing him problems, he can be blown off the ball, along with the rest of Wakes line - they use a very undersized group, especially for the 3-4.

Expect UVA to be able to at least move the ball.  That hasn't been the problem; you're well aware of how we've infamously outgained basically everyone we've played and still gotten our asses beat.  Another five yards a carry from Parks is a strong likelihood; the only I-A team that hasn't gashed Wake is Maryland, and Maryland is bringing a loaf of bread to a gunfight in this respect.  The real question is whether or not we'll once again be a living embodiment of Zeno's paradox, and get halfway to the end zone on every play.

-- UVA pass offense vs. Wake pass defense

Quarterback:
Phillip Sims: 62/116, 53.4%; 747 yards, 6 TDs, 3 INTs; 6.44 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Darius Jennings: 26 rec., 370 yards, 1 TD
Perry Jones: 23 rec., 228 yards, 0 TDs

UVA offense:
283.6 yards/game, 7.1 yards/attempt
76th of 124 (national), 11th of 12 (ACC)

Wake defense:
216.0 yards/game, 7.2 yards/attempt
77th of 124 (national), 9th of 12 (ACC)

Ayyy.  If we're not already at the territory where if you have two quarterbacks you have none, we're moving rapidly toward it.  It was probably a gracious and merciful God that caused Khalek Shepherd to be just slightly late in looking for that first-down pass from Mike Rocco last week, because if he'd caught it he'd probably have scored.  And if he'd scored we might have won, and if Rocco had coolly and calmly driven UVA to a win after Phillip Sims spent most of the day floundering, the resulting quarterback controversy would have melted everyone's head.

This is the one area where a suspension might affect things; starting safety Duran Lowe is out.  However, he's replaced by Kenny Okoro, who's well-experienced in his own right, although he's managed to watch his playing time steadily decrease since his freshman year.

It looks as though Tim Smith will finally get back on the field.  Will it much matter?  I kind of doubt it, as I expect Smith to be eased back into it.  Unlike last week, Darius Jennings doesn't appear on the injury list, and should be at full speed, and E.J. Scott has of course been impressive.  So I don't think there'll be a big rush to toss Smith right back into the fire, but I do expect him to be targeted a little bit early just to get him back into the groove.

However, Sims must have a good day against a highly unremarkable pass defense.  Wake can be carved up by dinking down the field, which of course is Rocco's specialty and which Duke did almost perfectly to the Deacs.  Sims is less consistently accurate and doesn't have the timing down right.  He's proven a fast learner in certain areas - after obvious missed opportunities against Duke, he scrambled for a few yards against Maryland and at least one first down.  As Sims goes this weekend, so goes the offense.

-- Wake run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Josh Harris: 88 carries, 377 yards, 4.3 avg, 3 TDs
Deandre Martin: 57 carries, 279 yards, 4.9 avg., 5 TDs

Wake offense:
123.17 yards/game, 3.54 yards/attempt
99th of 124 (national), 9th of 12 (ACC)

UVA defense:
154.43 yards/game, 4.36 yards/attempt
74th of 124 (national), 7th of 12 (ACC)

Last week's game finally freed me, for the most part, from having to always caveat the Georgia Tech game in an effort to point out why the run defense doesn't actually suck.  The stats are now a lot more normal-looking and better reflective of the actual effort being put forth here.

Wake's Josh Harris continues to be a boom-or-bust kind of back, though he's done a better job of smoothing out his production spikes this season and being more consistent.  The Deacs have also found a solid change of pace in redshirt freshman Deandre Martin, a big bruiser who's been used as a short-yardage back but is very capable of a workhorse role and is very hard to bring down in the open field.

Wake's offensive line is slowly coming together.  In the preseason I called it one of the biggest disaster units in the whole conference.  It's better than that, but it's still working toward respectability.  In later games it's been improving after having been completely throttled by Florida State (no surprise there.)

However, I think you have to at least nod your head appreciatively at the work done by the UVA defensive line.  It has missed Billy Schautz, but it's learned to cope without him, and Ausar Walcott and Eli Harold have been improving each game in his absence.  Wake will absolutely need a running game, as we'll see in the next segment, so this could well be the deciding factor.  If their backs can generate some life, and they've been able to do so in Wake's most recent games, they'll have an offense.  If our front seven can get another inspired game from guys like Laroy Reynolds (who played very well against Maryland despite the nonsense with the PF penalty) and the front four can continue to do some quality unsung work, Wake will struggle mightily.

-- Wake pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Tanner Price: 98/188, 52.1%; 1225 yards, 7 TDs, 4 INTs; 6.52 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Michael Campanaro: 38 rec., 429 yards, 3 TDs
Terence Davis: 18 rec., 280 yards, 1 TD

Wake offense:
210.2 yards/game, 6.6 yards/attempt
91st of 124 (national), 12 of 12 (ACC)

UVA defense:
223.0 yards/game, 6.9 yards/attempt
58th of 124 (national), 5th of 12 (ACC)

The first thing, and probably second through seventh things, that you need to know is this: no Campanaro.  Wake's leading (and only good) receiver has a broken hand and won't be playing.

That alters things immensely.  Campanaro had potential to be a nightmare.  Our safeties generally don't do well when assigned to do tricky things like help out the cornerbacks on one particular receiver.  (I'm not being sarcastic.  They're inexperienced, and get confused easily when their assignment is deep help on a Stefon Diggs type but the route patterns make it look like they should be doing something else.  That's why Diggs was so damn wide open that one time Hills threw him a wobbly can of corn to escape big-time trouble.  Our safety was playing it safe and hanging back, which given the circumstances I prefer that to the alternative.  Anyway, the point is that "keep an eye on this side of the field and defend the deepest route" is a simple assignment; "keep an eye on this side of the field, help out your corner on this really dangerous receiver but also don't let anything go behind you" is trickier than it sounds.)

Without Campanaro, there is nobody at all that will strike fear in anyone.  Starting TE Spencer Bishop has caught two passes all year.  They don't use him.  Campanaro has almost as many rushing attempts as their running backs have pass catches.  They don't use them much.  Tanner Price's completion percentage is so low partly because his receivers have a bad case of the dropsies.  Demetrious Nicholson is still a work in progress, but you can damn sure bet he's good enough to cover Terence Davis.  He and Brandon Terry comprise the biggest threats; Terry could sometimes be a problem because he's 6'5" and we got short DBs, but ultimately there's no need to overanalyze this: no Campanaro, no problem.

-- Outlook

I did promise on Monday that I would predict a loss regardless of what I wrote in the game preview.  Call me stupid, or a homer, or a Lions fan (nobody is better than a Lions fan at rationalizing why our crappy football team will be good) but I can't do that.  If the game is close, it could be a problem given the shattered wasteland that is our special teams.  And Wake is coming off a bye week, probably with a whole bunch of tricks up their sleeve.  But I'm going to hang my hat on the hopes that our run defense is as good as I think it is; that the Wake passing offense is as bad as it looks without their one legitimate receiving star; and that we'll finally be able to run the ball on every yard line between the goal lines, and not just from 20 to 20.  If we lose this one I swear every game prediction from here on out will be for a loss of a billion to three.

Also, I'm always forgetting to mention this, but I'll be using the Tweeta during the game to spit out random stuff.  Follow @MaizeNBlueWahoo for 140-character reactions to the game.

-- Prediction summary:

-- Five yards a carry for Kevin Parks.
-- Parks both catches the most passes, and has the most carries, of any UVA back.  (Made easier, of course, if Perry Jones's concussion turns out to be a problem, but he wasn't on the injury report.)
-- Tim Smith, in his welcome-back party, does not catch many passes (three at most) but one is a big one.
-- Tanner Price completes fewer than 50% of his passes.
-- Brandon Terry, not Terence Davis, is Wake's leading receiver.

Final score: UVA 21, Wake 14

-- Rest of the ACC:

Virginia Tech @ Clemson, 12:00 - Somebody's division hopes are going to take a major hit.

Boston College @ Georgia Tech, 3:00 - The natives are restless in Atlanta; they'll go ballistic if they lose this one.

NC State @ Maryland, 3:30 - You'd've been slapped in the face if you suggested before the season that Maryland would lead their division and control their destiny in October.

North Carolina @ Duke, 7:00 - UNC has lost this game once since 1989, which is the last time it meant anything.  Now it's for Duke's bowl eligibility - yikes.

Florida State @ Miami, 8:00 - Wouldn't be surprised to see this one overrun with Noles fans.

fashionista

Before we dive straight into today's post, in which I channel my inner Paul Lukas, there are three things you must know before we start.

-- One. This post is about uniforms.  I am a huge get-off-my-lawner about uniforms.  I admit that part of this is because "my" UVA wears a blue helmet and looks a certain way.  Other people grew up with white helmets and some of you really older folks saw orange ones.  I like blue ones in part because that's what I'm used to.  But also because it's a brand.  Look, the way you look on a football field is a brand.  All it should take to know who's playing is a glance at the TV, without even having to look at the scorebug.  If it's blue and white you see, it's probably Penn State.  If it's maize and blue, it's Michigan.  Burnt orange and white, it's Texas.  If you went blind, Oregon.

Nobody in our conference uses a navy blue helmet like we do.  And surprisingly few teams in the country wear a blue-blue-white (note - this column is going to use a "color-color-color" nomenclature, which is helmet-jersey-pants) combination.  On the other hand, we have already cribbed two other ACC looks this season: orange-orange-white is Clemson's style and their primary look, and orange-blue-orange is Syracuse all the way.  (It's also Illinois.)  I know we are never going to have the cachet of a winged helmet like Michigan or a traditional, instantly recognizable look like Penn State, but guess what: as hard as we try, we will also never be Oregon.

So this column, which is going to evaluate the aesthetics of the various new uniform combinations of the London-era jerseys, isn't to be taken as an endorsement of any wild-ass "Oregon of the East" ideas people might have.  You want me to go full Walt Kowalski on you, I'll add that I think the desire to be constantly changing uniforms is a product of the annoyingly short and microwaveable attention span, and that, for many reasons, "the kids like it" is a thoroughly bogus and discreditable argument.  Essentially what I think is that the orange helmet should be chucked posthaste, and that I'm less ornery about the nine possible jersey-pants combos.  Seriously, if nine isn't good enough for you, you might need some Ritalin.

-- Two.  This is poor timing for this post, but whatever I've had this sucker planned for a while and it's time to get a move-on with it because very soon now basketball is going to demand the mid-week slots.  It's poor timing because the team is playing badly and it's my opinion the coaches should take the uniform decisions out of the hands of the captains until the team plays better.  Just a little extra thing to let them know they mean it.  Kind of like when growing up you could tell the difference between when you got yelled at but it was cool because Mom wasn't really mad, she just wanted you to stop what you were doing, and the times when you got yelled at and you knew you'd better just stay out of Mom's way the rest of the day cause she was on the warpath.  I've seen it suggested we should just go plain old blue-blue-white and blue-white-white for the rest of the season, but I decided I'd rather not because I don't want the team to associate the classic good looks with losing.

-- Three.  This post owes a major debt of gratitude to the excellent hoosfootball.com website, which tracks uni combinations and I mean back to the Lambeth Field days.  I have borrowed a few pictures from there without asking, when I couldn't find something elsewhere, and if the owner and proprietor asks me to, I'll take 'em down.  But you should definitely visit; it's an absolute treasure trove.

Alright, the extensive preliminaries out of the way, it's time to turn into fashion critics and talk uniforms.  This is my take on the good, the bad, and the ugly.  Pictures are provided for each combo, and pictures of other teams or some creative and very bad photoshopping if we've never worn it, to give you a rough idea of what it might look like.

THE NEVER-WORN

-- Orange-orange-orange

Also known as "the most hideous shit imaginable."  Solid color combinations very, very rarely look good.  Certain colors are wose than others.  This would be as bad as it gets.  Mercifully, the Hoos have only worn orange jerseys over orange pants once, two years ago, and it looked horrible.  Pair an orange helmet with it and I'd want to stab out my eyes.  It'd be worse than you see above, because our pant stripes aren't as substantial and you can barely make out the V-sabres on the orange helmet, which by the way has no stripe, and basically we'd be walking traffic cones.  Yuck.  Do some crappy two-second photoshopping, and you get this:

Yeah, fuck that.  Talk about hideous.

-- Orange-blue-white

This has it's possibilities, and there's a part of me that'd be intrigued to see this.  It does have a problem: as we'll see later, the white pants don't work well with orange helmets.  But it also has one other problem:

It's not the best idea if the goal is to avoid other teams' patented looks.

-- Orange-blue-blue

I promised you bad photoshops and that's exactly what you're getting.  It doesn't matter here.  You take the lesser of two helmet options and you stick it on top of one of the worst jersey-pants combos we have, and you get the definition of a bad idea.  I hate this idea so much I almost used a VT helmet for the photoshop, just to drive home the point.

-- Orange-white-blue

I can't really find a suitable set of pictures to photoshop.  It was harder than I thought to find this one, but Florida wears it relatively often.  I'll get into it later but I really dig the blue-white-orange look, so flipping it has some real potential.  This is roughly what you'd get, only with a darker blue.

-- Orange-white-orange

It's a pretty sharp combo.  I'm sure we'd look good wearing it.  But are you picking up on a theme here?

THE ONCE-WORN

-- Orange-orange-white

I said the orange helmet doesn't work with the white pants, and now I'll tell you why: the blue stripes.  The pants' blue stripes are there because Nike expected us to wear them with blue helmets.  It looks mismatched.  I don't care for this look, and other teams (ahemClemson) pull it off much better.

-- Orange-white-white

 This isn't quite the "standard" look; the gray facemasks screw it up a bit.  Somebody got the bright idea to take the throwback helmets from the previous game (which was a well-executed look, by the way) and slap the regular decals on them.  Gray facemasks are a cute thing teams do these days when they want their helmets to look old-timey, and it's really played out.  Unless your team colors allow it (Ohio State) or you've basically never stopped wearing them (Notre Dame) you shouldn't wear gray facemasks outside of throwback games.  This is just a bad deal overall; it suffers from the same orange-helmet-blue-pant-stripes problem as above, but at least with the orange jerseys, the numbers matched the helmet decals, with white outlined in blue.  Here you've got blue numbers outline in orange, a white decal outlined in blue, blue new-age stripes with no outline, and an old-school blue helmet strip with no outline.  It's a hodge-podgey mess.

-- Blue-orange-orange

Once was once too many.

-- Orange-orange-blue

The Peach Bowl look.  OK, I guess.  Honestly would look a million miles better without the bowl patch.  (Go ahead - cover it up with your finger.  It really is better.)  I don't have a very strong opinion one way or the other here, except that I was feeling thrown off all game long, as it was the first time I'd ever seen the team in orange lids.  There's nothing really wrong with the look, and admittedly it does stand out.  It's not the best, though, and it just feels off, though I could be transferring my thrown-off feeling from the game itself.

THE TWICE-WORN

-- Orange-blue-orange

Of the orange-lidded looks we have worn, this is the best.  Other than possibly orange-white-blue, it might be the best of all nine orange-helmeted combos.  The blue stripes on orange pants match the blue sabres on orange helmets, and the white numbers match the V.  And besides that, unlike most of the other times we've seen orange helmets, it just looks natural on TV.  If I had my way except that I was told we'd have to have orange hats occasionally, this is the only combo they'd be worn with.

-- Blue-white-blue

It's too bad this has only been worn twice and they've both been losses, because it's a sharp look.  It's not flashy but it works.  Again, Nike gave us pant stripes the way they did because they were expecting blue helmets, and the orange stripes mirror the orange sabres.  (The blue helmet, by the way, is a better than the orange because you can see the damn sabres.)  Blue numbers outlined in oranger set off the rest of the look nicely.  It's classy.  And it's much better than the same look with the Groh-era uniforms, because those blue pants were ugly (although the striped socks that went with them were sharper than sharp.)

-- Blue-blue-white

George Welsh introduced the look and used it for the latter part of his tenure.  Al Groh continued it for the full length of his time.  And ever since Mike London took over, in his three years, we've worn this twice.  That is a crime.  It's classy, it's classic, it had become ours, it can't be improved upon, and it's been tossed by the wayside.  Booooooooooo.

-- Blue-blue-orange

I'll admit, I had some hopes for this one when the uniforms were first introduced.  They came out in blue-white, white-orange, and orange-blue back then, so this one wasn't shown, but I thought it could be a good one.  It's not.  It's kind of a dud.  There's nothing really egregiously wrong with it, but the top clashes with the bottom.  Would white stripes on the pants help?  Maybe, but probably not.

-- Blue-orange-white

This is another one that had tons of potential, but falls flat.  It's better than blue-blue-orange, but in the end it kind of looks like a practice getup.  It's too much of a mishmash to work as a regular, everyday uniform, but is probably fine for ESPN3 games against out-of-conference soup cans.  Like above.

THE MANY-WORN

-- Blue-blue-blue

I saved the worst for first.  All-one-color uniforms almost never look good.  All-white like Texas or Penn State makes you look like Casper the Friendly Ghost.  All-orange or red or something looks absolutely horrible.  All-dark, like this, is as good as it gets, but it still looks bad.  This has been worn three times, once each season of the London era.

-- Blue-white-orange

This too has been worn three times, and I wish it were more.  I realize it violates everything I've said before about pant stripes and matching things to other things and I don't care.  Something about this just pops.  The team looks damn good in this, and I wouldn't be that upset if they never wore anything else on the road.

-- Blue-white-white

The team chose this look for every road game last year but one (the first one.)  And while I appreciate the nod to the old school, this was much better during the Groh years when the pants had a big thick stripe to offset all that white.  Part of the reason Texas looks so crappy in all-white is because they have no stripe on the pants.  We barely have any.  A dark-colored helmet saves the combo, and there's nothing offensive about it, but it's just too much white.

-- Blue-orange-blue

The team chose this look so often I thought it was gonna end up being the default home jersey.  You could do worse.  A lot worse, actually; this is a solid set.  Again, you've got the pants matching the helmet and the jersey numbers matching the logo, mostly.  Orange accents on the helmet and pants let the jersey go to work on the eyes. I like it.

*****************************************************

The verdicts in, this is the final tally:

THE UGLY

-- Orange-orange-orange
-- Orange-white-white
-- Orange-blue-blue
-- Blue-orange-orange

These are in no particular order, because ugly is ugly.  Anyone suggesting we wear these combos should be slapped.

THE BAD

-- Orange-blue-white (a)
-- Orange-white-blue (a)
-- Orange-white-orange (a)
-- Orange-orange-blue (b)
-- Blue-orange-white (b)
-- Blue-white-white (b)
-- Blue-blue-orange (b)
-- Blue-blue-blue (c)
-- Orange-orange-white (c)

These range from those we've never worn and don't need to bother with except for maybe once to satisfy curiosity (a) to those that don't really look bad but don't look that great either and are therefore extraneous (b) to those that actually do look kind of bad (c).

THE GOOD

-- Blue-blue-white
-- Blue-white-orange
-- Blue-white-blue
-- Blue-orange-blue
-- Orange-blue-orange

And if it were up to me, this is how we'd roll.  Blue, blue, and white for your basic, everyday, ACC Saturday.  White-over-blue and, especially, white-over-orange, on the road.  (The white pants would be fine too, if I'm being perfectly honest.)  Orange helmets with blue jerseys and orange pants for ESPN3 soup-can games against the Idahos and Eastern Michigans and Richmonds.  And blue-orange-blue for night-game specials.  (If on the road, those would be good games to break out the white shirts and orange pants.)  Nobody ever consults me on these things, and some people think that's a good thing.  I'll even admit to checking for the combo-of-the-week announcement, even when I think they ought to be cutting that shit out.  But you have to admit there's something to be said for a system.

the recruit: Kirk Garner

Name: Kirk Garner
Position: CB
Hometown: Baltimore, MD
School: Good Counsel
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 180

24/7: 89, three stars; #28 S, MD #12
ESPN: 79, three stars; #38 CB, MD #12, Atl. #67
Rivals: 5.8, four stars; #30 CB, MD #9
Scout: three stars; #48 CB

Other offers: Florida State, Nebraska, Penn State, Tennessee, West Virginia, NC State, Michigan State, Boston College, Maryland, Vanderbilt, Cincinnati, Purdue, Navy, various others

June's commitnent frenzy brought in its biggest fish as a pleasant start to a weekend in the form of a Kirk Garner commitment on a Friday.  Garner had been a UVA lean all spring, but unsurprisingly took a little longer than his Good Counsel teammates to decide for UVA, given the heavy interest he earned from all over the country.  Besides those listed, for example, Michigan, among others, was moving in the direction of an offer, and the only thing that held Michigan back was that they basically finished their class of 2013 in like 2010.

Garner is a defensive back with average size but good speed and the flexibility to play safety or corner, though I'd call him a cornerback lean at the moment.  He's got fan-pleasing skills as a corner: ESPN praises his aggressiveness here, particularly against the run, and Rivals goes even farther: "In run defense, he does a great job coming downhill, locating the 'back and finishing with a violent hit. Garner has been known to fly in like a tracking missile: hard, fast and on target."  Rivals is prone to hyperbole, but you get the message.  They also like his physicality in coverage, and ESPN further points out a highly underrated skill for a cornerback: the ability to play a receiver's block and force the run inside where the help is.

So he's a likely cornerback, and both Rivals and Scout think his size will be the determining factor there, both calling him too small for safety.  They're probably right; Garner probably can't put on another 25 pounds to get himself to safety size.  Cornerback, of course, is going to be the toughest place on the field to break into in the next couple years.  Demetrious Nicholson will be there until 2014, Drequan Hoskey will not be disappearing any time soon, and the staff really likes Maurice Canady.  Competition is hot.

Still, you've got to like his odds.  A feisty player like Garner tends to endear himself to coaching staffs, and he's a high-three-star guy to the services but has a four-star offer list.  Part of that is from playing at a high-profile school where everyone wants to establish a presence.  But when you look that good even when playing across from Kendall Fuller, you're doing something right.  There could be some special teams work in Garner's freshman-year future, perhaps as a returner as he's had some success there this season.  Personally, I'd rather not see this; hopefully next year there'll be enough depth and talent in the program that we don't have to throw true freshmen out there on kick coverage, but London likes to honor guys' play-right-away wishes.  The better thing would be to put a little extra separation between Garner (and Tim Harris while we're at it) and the current starters, so that Garner is a redshirt sophomore when it's time for him to step up and start.

*******************************************************

I'm really enjoying myself here watching Justin Verlander be Justin Verlander and if you're a baseball fan and you don't watch this guy pitch you're missing out on something special.  Non sequiturs aside, we check in on Senior Seasons.

Damascus 44, Rockville 0: Zach Bradshaw had two first-quarter touchdowns, one on yet another punt return, as his team had it easy this weekend.  Damascus is 7-0.

Good Counsel 22, Bishop McNamara 0: Quiet day for UVA's commits as Kirk Garner hauls in two passes and Brendan Marshall is 6-for-12 for just 68 yards.  OLGC is 6-1.

South Iredell 24, Bandys 13: LaChaston Smith ran for a 39-yard touchdown in his team's closest win of the year.  South Iredell is 8-1.

Hickory Ridge 63, A.L. Brown 42: Keeon Johnson is still injured and not playing, but I thought this was worth passing on: A.L. Brown (which also simply goes by Kannapolis) is such a force in their area that this was their first loss to another team in Cabarrus County since 1976.  Brown is 7-2.

Bayside 44, Tallwood 0: Taquan Mizzell went apeshit on Tallwood, racking up five touchdowns of assorted varieties and 150 receiving yards.  Bayside is 6-2.

Oscar Smith 47, Western Branch 13: Zack Jones caught a pair of touchdown passes at crucial times, before his team blew the game open.  Oscar Smith is 5-2.

St. Christopher's 44, Pope John Paul the Great 3: Playing tight end, Jack English caught a 68-yard touchdown pass to open the scoring.  St. Chris is 4-3.

Salisbury 27, Worcester 21 (Sadiq Olanrewaju) - Salisbury is 4-0.
Gilman 47, Loyola 7 (Micah Kiser) - Gilman is 5-2.
Potomac 35, Osbourn Park 0 (Donta Wilkins) - Potomac is 4-3.
BC High 28, Marlborough 12 (Jack McDonald) - BC High is 2-3.
Monsignor Donovan 42, Pinelands 0 (Brad Henson) - Donovan is 4-1.
Houston Lamar 42, Houston Westside 7 (Hipolito Corporan) - Westside is 4-3.
Varina 56, Atlee 21 (Tim Harris) - Varina is 5-1.
Liberty Christian 36, Fork Union 33 (Malcolm Cook) - FUMA is 6-2.

weekend review

And so the line is crossed.  At some point on Saturday you all came to the same conclusion.  Maybe at different times, but you all ended up at the same place: the season is over.  Mathematically speaking, perhaps not, but the amount of denial it takes to not accept the idea of a postseason without UVA is seismically large.

The slot machine that is this football program is easily the most maddening in recent memory - certainly, at least, with the five years covered by this blog.  Will we get good or bad pass blocking this week?  Good or bad run blocking?  Will the quarterback complete passes or not?  Existent or nonexistent pass rush?  Horrible special teams, or really fucking horrible special teams?  At least this last one is easy to predict.  The rest are a prognosticator's nightmare.  It's not that I suck at predicting what'll happen in any one particular game; it's just that past performance with this team is completely worthless as an indicator of future results.  Oh, so we have a pair of offensive tackles with major NFL potential?  Just for fun, how about in this game, they completely blow?  Mike Rocco has been slowly regressing as a passer and looks more like Marc Verica and less like Matt Schaub with every throw?  How about in this game, he directs an 89-yard touchdown drive (starting with 2nd and 18) in less than two minutes?  Awesome!  One of these weeks, the slot machine will turn up a winning combo and some future opponent is gonna be really pissed off we wrecked their chances at the ACCCG, but otherwise, this team has no identity, nothing it does good consistently, and is prone to screwing up in all facets of the game at any time.

Some more than others.  Let's take special teams for an example, which has hit my breaking point of impatience.  I am done with this crap.  I went through the play by play and counted 28 special teams plays that were something other than an extra point.  The only actual good plays that were made were mostly the punter, Alec Vozenilek, who averaged 48 yards a kick if you take away the very ill-timed shank at the end.  That's pretty good.  Then I counted three penalties, a blocked field goal, and two long kick returns for Maryland, one for a touchdown.  As with every week, we got nothing worth talking about on returns.

The penalties are undisciplined shit and have been happening every week.  The touchdown was undisciplined shit - failure of the most simple task, which is to stay in your lane and run through the play.  The blocked field goal was a nice play by the Maryland DT, but clearly avoidable since the result was to pull Drew Jarrett and put in Ian Frye - Jarrett's kick was low.  There's no getting around it: the special teams lost us this game.  The terrible pass blocking was a close second - seriously, both Moses and Aboushi had just about the worst game of their careers and probably graded out in pass protection at minus a billion percent.  But the special teams was worse.  Worse because it was undisciplined bullshit for which being freshmen and such is not an excuse.  (Especially not in Zach Swanson's case, who is a redshirt sophomore and should know better than to commit the brainless personal foul that killed every ounce of momentum we had scraped together up to that point.)

I don't lightly call for the jobs of coaches - Lord knows I probably stick by them for too long - but that time has come: UVA cannot afford one more week of Anthony Poindexter's totally ineffective coaching of the special teams.  Dex is probably not a good coach in general, given the number of different positions he's been bounced around to.  Vincent Brown was added to the special teams duties last year in an effort to help Poindexter, because special teams also sucked in 2010, and obviously that's worked about as well as Professor Echols's decision to blow up the Rotunda.  London needs to seriously evaluate whether Poindexter's recruiting chops are a net positive compared to his coaching.  Bringing talent into the program is cool and all, but Dex's special teams just cost us the Maryland game, which besides losing to effing Maryland is a huge blow to recruiting in Dex's own geographical assignment (he's responsible for NOVA and Maryland.)

If the answer is no, we can't afford to lose his recruiting skills, then it's still time for a staff shuffle, starting with the special teams, which should be under the purview of the head coach for the rest of the year.  That's the level of attention they need, and that's the way to send the message to the brickheaded dumbasses who think it's a good idea to throw a block in the back while our runner cruises out of bounds - or throw post-whistle shoves on routine field goals - that their mistakes are being watched.  Christ, even the one really good, applaudable play on kick cover was a last-second, shoestring, touchdown saving tackle that wouldn't have been necessary if we could cover kicks.

We can kill two birds with one stone if the staff is reshuffled, even if Dex is retained.  Move Dex to RBs and give the safeties over to Chip West, who already coaches the corners.  Give the QBs and WRs to Mike Faragalli, who's done both before.  Bill Lazor likes to be on the sidelines during the game so he can coach the QBs, but he's the OC - he needs to be in the booth.  It'll improve his playcalling, which is a little goofy at times.  (Although, I don't fault him for the screen passes on third and long.  Shit, if the O-line is going to let pass rushers have free shots at our quarterback, might as well do it on purpose and get it out of the way faster.  There was some running room there and those screens damn near worked.)

Further reactions in brief:

-- Where the heck did the run game come from all of a sudden?  As bullshit as that game was, you have to give a huge tip of the cap to the run-blocking, which only made the game even more bullshit really because we really should win with that kind of performance.  Also, Kevin Parks needs to start eating into Perry Jones's carries. 

-- Yes, we are past the point of no return at quarterback.  It's Sims or bust, in the hope that he can figure out the timing with more playing time.  I said it here and I said it on the messageboards and I said it for weeks: judging Phillip Sims based on garbage time without the game on his shoulders and with the coaches purposely setting him up for success was stupid.  Expecting him to just come out slinging and hitting every receiver in sight was stupid.  But it's too late to go back, now.  Consider Rocco a very experienced insurance policy.

-- Yes, it's also way too damn early to be calling for the head coach's job or giving up on the London era, even as I'm so damn done with the special teams coaching.  But certain troubling examples are starting to show.  Consider: Laroy Reynolds (a senior, mind you), in pass coverage on the sidelines, draws a bead on his assignment and zeroes in so hard he fails to notice the ball was horrendously overthrown.  If he's able to catch it, with his speed it's probably six points and a huge momentum booster, what with being down two touchdowns at the time.  Instead he laser-focuses on the big hit, and delivers it - way, way late.  Everyone on the planet could see a flag coming.  Everyone, that is, except Reynolds and Mike London.  The former sits for a play and the latter bitches at the refs.  Well, Reynolds doesn't exactly "sit" - he stalks the sidelines loudly bemoaning the unfairness of the obvious flag.  I don't hold with calling for a coach's job two and a half seasons into his tenure, but can you blame anyone for being irritated at the coaching staff for putting more energy into complaining at the ref than actually coaching?  Informing Reynolds to shut up and pay attention to the ball would've been infinitely more productive.

-- October baseball is a pleasant and welcome distraction from October football when the Tigers are cruising like they're cruising, so: an observation on that instead.  Which is: someone please shut Joe Girardi the hell up about instant replay.  Hey Joe, maybe if your 200 million dollar lineup didn't swing noodle bats and could score one stinking run against someone besides Detroit's strugglin'-ass closer, maybe it would've mattered that the umpire blew that call.  Maybe if your shit bullpen didn't give up RBI singles to rookie outfielders while you spend $14 million on a second baseman to go zilch-for-twenty-six and biff double plays while the winning run scores from third, you'd have a case.  And maybe if you could hit when it was 0-0, you wouldn't sound so silly complaining that 3-0 makes a real big difference.  If you can't hit Doug Fister and Anibal Sanchez, I can't wait to see what happens when it's Justin Verlander on the hill.  Wheeeeeeee.... go Tigers!

 Let us delve into the prediction summary:

-- UVA finally picks up more than one sack.  We got two!  I don't expect this to ever happen again all year!  And Maryland had five!

-- Perry Jones is UVA's least productive running back on the ground.  As I was looking this over I realized it was fairly ambiguous and left me too much wiggle room.  Then I realized it didn't matter.  Jones had 23 yards on 10 carries, which gives him both the lowest total and the lowest average.  He found no room at all.  Kevin Parks found a ton and has more or less officially supplanted Jones as the feature back.  He even caught more passes than Jones.

-- Neither team has a back gain more than 50 yards.  Well, I grossly underestimated UVA's running game skills, but not til I got right to this point did I realize how dominant our run defense was.  Holy balls you guys.  Maryland's leading rusher was Perry Hills - that's their QB in case you weren't paying attention - with seven yards on seven carries.  Justus Pickett carried 15 times for minus-eight yards.  Counting kneel-downs and sacks, Maryland's rushing "attack" went backwards: 29 attempts, -2 yards.  Holy hell.

-- Jake McGee catches a pass of 30+ yards.  Neg.

2 for 4 is a slight bump upwards to 13 of 34, or 38%.  But I'm 4-3 in outcome predictions and 0-5-2 ATS.  Next week I'm picking Wake Forest no matter what.  Either my record gets better or the team's does.

Now for the Blogpoll:

From Old Virginia Ballot - Week 7

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	1
2	Florida Gators	2
3	Alabama Crimson Tide	2
4	Kansas St. Wildcats	5
5	Oregon Ducks	-2
6	Stanford Cardinal	1
7	Florida St. Seminoles	3
8	Oregon St. Beavers	4
9	Texas Tech Red Raiders	13
10	Iowa St. Cyclones	3
11	Texas A&M Aggies	4
12	South Carolina Gamecocks	-11
13	Ohio St. Buckeyes	-7
14	West Virginia Mountaineers	-6
15	North Carolina Tar Heels	3
16	LSU Tigers	4
17	Oklahoma Sooners	--
18	Texas Longhorns	-7
19	Penn St. Nittany Lions	-2
20	Georgia Bulldogs	-6
21	Arizona St. Sun Devils	--
22	USC Trojans	-3
23	Michigan Wolverines	--
24	UCLA Bruins	--
25	Northwestern Wildcats	--
Dropouts: N.C. State Wolfpack, Duke Blue Devils, Cincinnati Bearcats, Ohio Bobcats

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »

I haven't bothered with a sanity check at all, but I can tell you a few things:

-- Ohio went yet another week with a terrible win over a terrible team.  I said I would stop rescuing them from my own system if they did that again, and they did that again, so I'm not.

-- South Carolina's fall from grace seems a bit steep, doesn't it?  I explain this by saying that a lot of their SEC wins (Vandy, Mizzou, UK) are looking worse and worse by the week.  Still, perhaps that's too low for a team I had as the best in the country last week.

-- Notre Dame, however, is a thoroughly deserving #1.

-- Oregon State might be top five if they hadn't had two off dates.

-- This ballot is proof of the Blogpoll's superiority to the media poll.  I have Mississippi State 28th, right where they belong since their best win is a 10-pointer over 3-3 Tennessee.  The media thinks they're a top-25 team because they beat Auburn when people thought Auburn was good, and the media doesn't remove you from their poll if you keep winning, regardless of how bad the teams are that you beat.

This week's pool of eligible teams dropped to 37 from 44.  Three teams were added, and a few teams dropped out because they fell below the limit for wins (4-3 is out, 4-2 is in) and some more because I changed the rule so that now, you have to either be undefeated or have a win over a Big Five team with at least a .500 record.   This is known as "just because you beat Kansas doesn't make you cool."  Sharp-eyed viewers will notice that one or two teams don't fit this rule (not telling which) but they were on the ballot last week so I grandfathered them in.

The Senior Seasons feature will have to wait til tomorrow because I got way busy with school this week (take-home midterms, yo) and what with the Tigers and Lions and all else I didn't get around to the ballot til today.

game preview: Maryland

Date/Time: Saturday, October 13; 3:00

TV: RSN, ESPN3

Record against the Terps: 32-42-2

Last meeting: UVA 31, Md. 13; 11/5/11, College Park

Last weekend: Duke 42, UVA 17; Md. 19, WF 14

Line: UVA by 1

Opposing blog: Testudo Times

Injury report:

Virginia -

OUT FOR SEASON
S Pablo Alvarez, DT Marco Jones, WR Mario Nixon

OUT
DE Billy Schautz, DT Buddy Ruff

DOUBTFUL
None

QUESTIONABLE
WR Darius Jennings, WR Tim Smith

PROBABLE
S Darius Lee, DT Justin Renfrow, QB Phillip Sims

Maryland -

OUT FOR SEASON
QB C.J. Brown, K Nick Ferrara, DL Andre Monroe

OUT
WR Kerry Boykins, RB Wes Brown, LB L.A. Goree, S Matt Robinson

DOUBTFUL
None

QUESTIONABLE
None

PROBABLE
G De'Onte Arnett, OT Justin Gilbert, CB Jeremiah Johnson, NT Darius Kilgo, OT Nick Klemm, RB Justus Pickett, LB Kenny Tate, DE Joe Vellano, OT Andrew Zeller

Last week's game had me pining for basketball season, or maybe baseball season already, and I was definitely getting all emo up in here thinking "what's the use of any more previews?  I could at least pump up my prediction record by always saying we'll lose, I suppose that's something."  Then I remembered who we play this week.  And the day I can't get excited about a chance to beat those goons from the trailer parkin' little brother we have on the other side of the Potomac is the day I shut this gig down.

College Park nightlife, or clever artistic statement on the financial condition of Maryland's well-run athletic department?  You decide!

-- UVA run offense vs. Md. run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 76 carries, 346 yards, 4.6 avg., 3 TDs
Perry Jones: 76 carries, 295 yards, 3.9 avg., 2 TDs

UVA offense:
134.83 yards/game, 4.05 yards/attempt
75th of 124 (national), 6th of 12 (ACC)

Md. defense:
81.0 yards/game, 2.33 yards/attempt
3rd of 124 (national), 1st of 12 (ACC)

This is genuinely concerning (and a great way to kick off the preview.  Not.)  I expected Maryland to be good against the run this year, but not, like, third in the nation good.  The numbers are no mirage; the Terps held the normally outstanding West Virginia offense to 25 yards on 25 carries.  40-some yards if you cut out sacks, but yeah.  Only UConn has put together anything resembling a rushing attack against the Terps, which is weird because UConn's running game otherwise sucks.  But the fact is, this ain't gonna be easy.

You have to start by accounting for Joe Vellano, a legit first-team all-ACC talent.  Vellano looks like he's about one gunshot away from earning made man status, and plays like it too, with seven non-sack TFLs.  For a lineman to be second on his team in tackles is impressive.  Maryland runs a 3-4 these days, which puts Vellano on the outside as a DE, and the defense is working like it's supposed to; Vellano has a bunch of tackles, other DE A.J. Francis is making some plays, and Maryland also has a playmaking linebacker in the form of Demetrius Hartsfield.  Hartsfield has 43 tackles (over eight per game), three sacks, and two recovered fumbles, and an INT for good measure, just what you'd salivate over if you were a 3-4 DC.  Hartsfield patrols the middle next to Cole Farrand, with Darin Drakeford and Kenny Tate on the outside, and the only one who hasn't been productive this season is Tate and it's not like it's his fault; WVU was his first game back from injury.

So all that noise about the progress the offensive line is making is about to be severely tested.  It's not at all out of the question that it's all been thanks to the opponent more than any real improvement.  Vellano demands a double team, and it's best for us if he lines up opposite Morgan Moses, whose ability in run-blocking has never been questioned.  If Darius Jennings and Tim Smith are both out (God forbid) it'll probably increase the number of times we go heavy on the tight ends, which may itself be necessary to get any kind of traction.

I don't see any running room for Perry Jones this week.  If anyone's going to gain yardage, it'll have to be someone who can fall forward after contact.  Running opposite of Vellano is paramount, and no, I don't think any tricky stuff like counter plays will work either, the dude's a veteran, and not slow either.  The best plan is to keep Vellano futilely pursuing from the back side, and hope we can keep Maryland's linebackers off the line of scrimmage long enough to get our backs past it.

-- UVA pass offense vs. Md. pass defense

Quarterback:
Phillip Sims: 49/88, 55.7%; 608 yards, 5 TDs, 2 INTs; 6.91 yds/attempt

Top receivers:
Darius Jennings: 24 rec., 339 yards, 1 TD
Perry Jones: 22 rec., 221 yards, 0 TDs

UVA offense:
294.5 yards/game, 7.4 yards/attempt
63rd of 124 (national), 8th of 12 (ACC)

Md. defense:
176.2 yards/game, 6.3 yards/attempt
36th of 124 (national), 4th of 12 (ACC)

I got an idea, let's just not have two of our best receivers available for this game.  Man, I hope Jennings and Smith can go.  Smith's status is an upgrade from last week when he was doubtful, so that's a good sign; I still don't like seeing those two listed on the injury report, ever.

It's much harder to make out what to think of Maryland's pass defense than their run defense.  For the most part, they haven't played good quarterbacks, except Geno Smith, who did Geno Smith things.  Tanner Price at Wake has taken a huge step backwards because teams are daring him to throw at anyone but Michael Campanaro.  Like UVA, Maryland hasn't gotten anything in the turnover department, except for INTs from people not in their secondary.

Cornerbacks Dexter McDougle and Jeremiah Johnson are solid enough, but neither has come up with an INT yet this season.  If we could be sure of having our best receivers, I'd like their chances of getting open, but the Terp cornerbacks are good enough to shut down our reserves.  You can expect them to focus like a laser on E.J. Scott, and I don't think he's ready for a featured role.

Where the defense is exploitable is at safety.  Matt Robinson has horrible luck in the injury department, and he'll miss yet another game this season, leaving true freshman Anthony Nixon to get the start.  If the Hoos can use Jake McGee to try and exploit this, or if Bill Lazor draws up some route patterns to confuse Nixon, Phil Sims just might find some open receivers.  Of course, then they have to catch the ball, but so it goes.

Sims is going to have to win this game, though.  He won't likely have a rushing attack to help him out.  And Maryland can bring a good pass rush from just about anywhere.  I like the odds of getting McGee back into the big-play column, but truthfully I have no idea whether Sims's deep bombs will continue, or whether they'll work if so.  Far too many variables out of our ken, like catching the damn ball and throwing a damn PI flag every damn once in a damn while.  If we win this game, though, Sims will have had a big day.

-- Md. run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Justus Pickett: 46 carries, 137 yards, 3.0 avg., 3 TDs
Wes Brown: 33 carries, 150 yards, 4.5 avg., 1 TD

Md. offense:
86.0 yards/game, 2.16 yards/attempt
122nd of 124 (national), 12th of 12 (ACC)

UVA defense:
180.5 yards/game, 4.95 yards/attempt
107th of 124 (national), 9th of 12 (ACC)

Now we start to get to the good news: the run game.  Specifically, Maryland's which is horrible with a side of pathetic.  To make matters even better, their leading RB, Wes Brown, won't be playing.  Part of those butt-tacular numbers are due to the enormous number of sacks they give up, but that doesn't exactly speak to the greatness of the O-line, either.

With Brown out and several of the Maryland O-linemen playing but battling through injuries, there is a chance here to play some old-fashioned shutdown defense.  No Brown means the Terps will split carries among Justus Pickett (also a tad banged-up), Albert Reid, and Brandon Ross.  Pickett has his moments, but has served more as Maryland's short-yardage back.  Reid and Ross aren't a concern.

It's as good a time as any to remind you that the UVA stats are horribly skewed by the Georgia Tech game and without that, UVA is in the top one-third of the country in run defense.  Maryland brings nothing tricky here, except for such times as they might bring Stefon Diggs through the backfield to take a few carries.  At the risk of sounding like I'm on repeat from the past few weeks, any time they do that instead of sending him on a pass pattern is a win.

You'd expect our team's pride to be good and wounded after the past few weeks.  The best place to fix that is right here.

-- Md. pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Perry Hills: 71/123, 57.7%; 940 yards, 7 TDs, 6 INTs; 7.64 yds/attempt

Top receivers:
Stefon Diggs: 17 rec., 364 yards, 3 TDs
Marcus Leak: 14 rec., 231 yards, 2 TDs

Md. offense:
188.0 yards/game, 7.6 yards/attempt
53rd of 124 (national); 6th of 12 (ACC)

UVA defense:
220.7 yards/game, 6.6 yards/attempt
53rd of 124 (national), 6th of 12 (ACC)

So if Maryland can't move the ball on the ground (we hope) that means it falls on the shoulders of Maryland's freshman quarterback Perry Hills, right?  And that's a good thing, right?

We'll see.  You know how this defense has been with big plays.  UVA has given up 7 pass plays of 40 yards or more, which is more than almost everyone in the country.  And it so happens Maryland has the ability to do that in the form of Stefon Diggs, whose big-play ability has lived up to his five-star rating.

The battle between Tre Nicholson and Diggs should be a classic, and could well decide the whole game.  And Nicholson will need safety help, and not for them to bite on play-action fakes.  There should be no need to; the front seven can handle it.  If the safeties stick to their assignments and stay back, they'll force Maryland to move slowly down the field instead of getting all the yards at once, and Maryland can't do that consistently.

Other than Diggs, Maryland's passing game is on and off.  They don't attempt a lot of passes in the first place, and Hills has all the inconsistencies of a freshman.  Marcus Leak is a decent second option to Diggs, but the Terps are underutilizing tight end Matt Furstenburg, who was the preseason all-ACC choice at his position.

Good news also comes in the form of Maryland's pass protection, which has been hideous.  Hills hasn't helped; he hangs onto the ball too long.  UVA hasn't had a multi-sack game since Penn State, and that was all Steve Greer on blitzes.  Not only do I think we can finally get off the schneid again, I think the D-line can get it done.

It's nice, for a change, to go up against a pass offense that isn't some nasty-good well-oiled machine.  Between Casey Pachall, Anthony Boone, and Colby Cameron, it's been a while since we went against a quarterback who was likely to miss all on his own accord.  The pass defense has been shredded by good quarterbacks.  Perry Hills might be on that level one day, but not now; he's more Matt McGloin than Anthony Boone.  This is the opposite of the offensive line, which has been improving against bad defenses but will be tested on Saturday.  Finally the pass defense gets a break.

-- Outlook

In a Q&A between SBN blogs, Testudo Times said the way to beat the Terps is "pass, and pass deep."  Hm, who do we know who might be willing to do that?  It's been said that if Sims had just been able to connect once or twice against Duke, the whole game might've been different.  I don't know about that, because it wouldn't have stopped our defense from getting torched.  Here?  I'll buy it.  This game should hold a lot of similarity to the PSU game: a defensive struggle decided by a big play here or there.  Back then it was a blocked extra point.  Both Maryland and UVA have the capacity to earn that big play in the pass game, and whoever loses will probably swear up and down that the game would be different if you could just go back and change one or two plays.

-- Prediction summary:

-- UVA finally picks up more than one sack.
-- Perry Jones is UVA's least productive running back on the ground.
-- Neither team has a back gain more than 50 yards.
-- Jake McGee catches a pass of 30+ yards.

(oh what the hell.....)
Final score: UVA 19, Md. 17

-- Rest of the ACC:

Slow week this week.  Clemson, GT, NC State, Wake, all with byes.

Duke @ Virginia Tech, 12:30 - Please please please pleeeeeeeeeeeeeezz.

North Carolina @ Miami, 2:30 - If the Hurricanes become Coastal Division favorites, and nobody's there to see it, does it count?

Boston College @ Florida State, 5:30 - Pissed off FSU = slaughter alert.

midseason review

I think this is obligatory or something for bloggers, so this is the post in which we look back at the season preview and see how things have gone from there.  In other words, are we closer to the best or worst case that I presented back in August?

The fact that the season is half over is both scary and sadly welcome.  Losing to Duke has a way of making it eminently clear that you're not going bowling, and that the rest of the games are going to be a constant struggle.  If the Hoos can win the next two, I might find a way to convince myself that they can scratch and claw their way to six wins, but it's not going to be easy.

The ever-so-rosy season previews are here for offense and here for defense, for reference's sake.  Each position group will be rated a 1-10 scale for expectations and also for health.  On the expectations scale, 3 is basically "the worst case came true" and 8 is basically "the best case came true"; ratings above or below that mean I wasn't imaginative enough.

QUARTERBACKS

Expectations: 4
Health: 9

The only reason "expectations" aren't a 3 is because the worst-case scenario involved Phillip Sims floundering around with limited knowledge of the playbook.  If he keeps just tossing it deep when he could be getting easy first downs, it'll be the same thing and we'll downgrade at the end of the season.

Otherwise, this is what I wrote for the worst-case scenario: "Rocco falters against tough defenses brought to bear by Penn State, Georgia Tech, and TCU in September, and a full-on firestorm, complete with grenades and napalm, erupts on message boards, demanding Sims take over."  Tell me that hasn't come perfectly true.

Health is downgraded a notch since Sims has been a little nicked up, and Rocco had to finish the Duke game.  Likely enough it won't be a long term thing.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Expectations: 2
Health: 7

Everyone's been healthy except for Tim Smith, whose absence has been felt.  But the expectations - woof.  No one said anything about every single one of these guys getting the drops.  We've seen tantalizing flashes, but when you have people suggesting it's possible the quarterbacks don't trust any of the WRs, it's bad.  This group has got to figure something out, pronto.

TIGHT ENDS

Expectations: 9
Health: 10

Anyone who told you they saw Jake McGee coming is lying.  Yes, he's gotten some really good reviews out of practice.  No, not like that.  And credit should be given to the blocking, which has mostly been excellent - McGee actually isn't much of a blocker, but Paul Freedman has been very, very good.

RUNNING BACKS

Expectations: 6
Health: 8

Missing Clifton Richardson hasn't been a good thing, but it's given Khalek Shepherd a chance to shine a little bit.  In the preview, I flat-out said the only thing that could stop these guys is a bad offensive line, and what do you know?   Bad offensive line.  But when actually given their chances, the group hasn't let us down - mostly.  I would've liked to see better running out of Perry Jones, who's been a little too dancey.  But he's been his usual productive self in the passing game, second on the team with 22 catches.  And I've really liked what I've seen out of Kevin Parks, who's been running with a purpose and a half.

FULLBACKS

Expectations: 4
Health: 10

The worst-case here was that the fullback role basically disappeared, and it hasn't.  That said, yuck.  Other than some part-time contributions from Zach Swanson, there is no passing game.  The presence of a fullback hasn't helped the run game.  I already mentioned Billy Skrobacz's brain fart against Duke, and that play hasn't really been unique.  I don't think this position group is a major reason why the offense has been so sputtery, but there haven't been any contributions, either.

OFFENSIVE LINE

Expectations: 3
Health: 10

Yup, worst-case here.  I should probably go even less, because Morgan Moses has shown us exactly why he's not protecting the blind side.  Slow footwork has caused him to get beat far too often.  The inside of the line has been just the problem we all feared.  No need to go in depth here; we simply must get better play from the guards and center.

DEFENSIVE LINE

Expectations: 6
Health: 8

Losing Billy Schautz has probably hurt in ways we don't really see; that said, Ausar Walcott has done a good job in his absence, probably better than expected.  Walcott brings a decent pass rush and has been a pleasant surprise in his all-around diagnosis of the game.  Relative to expectations, I think you have to grade out the defensive line fairly well.  Now, there's been hardly any pass rush, but we didn't expect much of one, and they have been getting there at times.  Not in time to get any sacks, but at least they've banged up a few quarterbacks.  Could they be better against the run?  Absolutely.  Is the lack of a consistent pass rush hurting the defense?  Absolutely.  But if we expected the team to go 7-5, the defensive line is generally holding up their end of the bargain.

LINEBACKERS

Expectations: 5
Health: 8

I wish I could say the same for the linebackers.  I put some hefty expectations on them in the preseason; I haven't seen it.  Laroy Reynolds has been playing too - hmm, I don't want say emotionally, but he's been all over the place, and not in a good way.  He's been prone to flying in one direction and getting to the wrong place quickly.  Instinctively, but those kind of instincts in the animal kingdom will get you evolutionarily selected out of the gene pool, and you can even see that on the field, where, D.J. Hill opened some eyes while playing in relief of Reynolds while Reynolds healed up a hand injury.

Meanwhile, it really looks like Steve Greer has hit his ceiling.  He continues to lead the team in tackles and is on pace for 110, which is excellent.  But his limitations have been on display, too; he doesn't have the sideline-to-sideline ability you'd like to see in an elite MLB.  Henry Coley has been decent, but not, like, amazing or anything.

SECONDARY

Expectations: 5
Health: 10

This is why you gotta remember we're grading against expectations here, not on a raw scale.  Has the secondary been just as good as the linebackers?  Heeeellll no.  We've been fortunate not to see the federal disaster zone that was well within the range of possibilities.  Tre Nicholson has been a solid cover man, and Drequan Hoskey and Maurice Canady have had their moments, too.  That said, they've also had a few issues.  The truth is, sometimes they look darn good and sometimes they look crummy.  They're freshmen and sophomores; we can deal with this.

The safeties have been worse.  But that's to be expected too; cornerback can be more about raw skill than safety.  Safety requires experience, period, and we don't have it.  That said, it hasn't killed us.  Much.  The safeties have run the wrong way at times, and that is bad, yes.  It's resulted in touchdowns, yes.  But I think they've been good enough that you can say the future looks bright for them.  Just, we have to get through the present first.

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So - the rest of the season?  Well, I've been calling it "over," but losing to Duke will do that to you.  In truth there is a small sliver of sunshine left.  But we have to win the next two.  It will be over otherwise.  But suppose we do.  Then you're looking at a 4-4 record and the need to win two of the next four.  Which is really two of the next three since if we go into Blacksburg needing to win to get bowl-eligible, it ain't happening.  Those three are at NC State and at home against Miami and UNC.  All three of those teams are better than we are.  But they also are either completely sucky or completely unbeatable; we'll need more data on them to really get any kind of idea how beatable they are.  Let's just get through the next two weeks; it's the whole season.