Tuesday, February 12, 2013

game preview: Virginia Tech


Date/Time: Tuesday, February 12; 7:00

TV: ESPNUVA

Record against the Hokies: 83-53

Last meeting: UVA 74, VT 58; 1/24/13, Blacksburg

Last game: UVA 80, Md. 69 (2/10); GT 64, VT 54 (2/9)

KenPom:

Tempo:
UVA: 60.6 (#340)
VT: 68.1 (#93)

Offense:
UVA: 107.3 (#59)
VT: 104.3 (#105)

Defense:
UVA: 86.5 (#11)
VT: 103.4 (#232)

Pythag:
UVA: .9006 (#19)
VT: .5215 (#158)

Projected lineups:

Virginia:

PG: Jontel Evans (3.3 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 4.9 apg)
SG: Paul Jesperson (4.6 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 1.2 apg)
SF: Joe Harris (15.9 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 2.3 apg)
SF: Justin Anderson (6.9 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.2 apg)
PF: Akil Mitchell (12.6 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 1.5 apg)

Virginia Tech:

PG: Erick Green (25.3 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 4.0 apg)
SG: Robert Brown (9.2 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 2.5 apg)
SF: Jarell Eddie (13.3 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 1.3 apg)
PF: C.J. Barksdale (4.6 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 0.6 apg)
PF: Cadarian Raines (7.1 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 0.5 apg)

Leg two of the Tech series is tonight, after leg one went swimmingly down in Blacksburg.  The game stats made it seem like the game was in Charlottesville, not Blacksburg; Tech looked like the rattled team with more than twice as many turnovers as UVA and not even a third as many assists.  UVA looked perfectly at home in Cassell Coliseum.  Now they'll actually be at home, and coming in on a mini-roll after taking a meat cleaver to Clemson and bouncing Maryland in Maryland's gym.  UVA needs this one to keep the pressure on Duke from below and UNC and NC State from above.  On the flip side, the UVA loss sent VT into a season-ruining death spiral; they haven't won since, and will be looking at this game as a postseason of sorts since their chances at any kind of a postseason tournament are just about shot.

-- UVA on offense

Evan Nolte wasn't bad in the starting lineup, but replacing him with Justin Anderson seems to have paid dividends with both players.  Bringing Nolte off the bench has spread out the shooting threats so that there's rarely a time when a .400 three-point shooter isn't on the floor.  Plus, not many teams have someone on the bench that can easily guard a mismatch forward like Nolte.  And Anderson's slashing is a new dimension in the starting lineup that's opened up the floor for Joe Harris and Paul Jesperson and made for a nice combo with Akil Mitchell at times as well.

Last time we covered this matchup, UVA was 10th of 12 in conference-only O-rating.  Now they're fourth.  Their worst offensive performance since then was not the GT loss; it was actually the win over NC State, with 0.92 points per possession in that game.  If that's your worst in a stretch, that's pretty good.  UVA's torrid three-point shooting has a lot to do with that, but don't fall into the trap of thinking that UVA is a team that relies on the three-pointer.  In fact, UVA is 242nd in the country in the ratio of three-pointers to total field goal attempts.

Where the Hoos are currently most limited is in getting to the line, but that might change for tonight as VT is starting to be one of the fouliest teams in the country.**  Getting Marshall Wood back into the rotation has only made that worse.  Most recently, Wood picked up two fouls in six minutes against Maryland and then three in 16 against Georgia Tech.  If at any time he's guarding Harris or Anderson, it's time to switch into attack mode and get to the line.  Both Cadarian Raines and C.J. Barksdale can also be counted on to hack and slash; in truth, Tech doesn't have a single frontcourt player (other than maybe Jarell Eddie, who's more of a wing really) that doesn't make a habit of putting opponents on the charity stripe.

Tech also is one of the utter worst teams in the country at getting steals and forcing turnovers.  UVA's six-TO performance last time out wasn't a fluke, since the Hoos take care of the ball quite well and Tech doesn't go and get it.  Playing at home, I don't see much reason for this trend to change.

In conference play, Tech's D-rating has been a beautiful 109.2.  If that were their overall rating they'd be tied for 307th in the country.  They don't rebound well, they foul like crazy, and they don't get steals.  I know UVA fans are worried about the team going cold off of this nice hot streak we've got going, but this isn't the team that can make it happen.  Even a cold-shooting UVA will find enough ways to score to pull out a win, and if the hot streak keeps going for another game, it'll be ugly for the Hokies.

**Astute readers may notice I said the opposite in the last preview.  Back then their rotation was thinner and included a higher proportion of non-fouly players.  Their backcourt is mostly non-aggressive and doesn't foul much, particularly Green, Brown, and Eddie.  Expanding the rotation to include Wood plus a little more of Joey Van Zegeren has changed the dynamic, and in conference play the Hokies have been fouling like madmen.

-- UVA on defense

Everybody knows about Erick Green.  The funny thing really is that Jontel Evans has more assists (per game) than Green has.  That's not because he's selfish, it's because his teammates mostly suck.  Tony Bennett said in the coaches' teleconference yesterday that they wouldn't focus just on Green, the Hokies have other weapons blah blah blah.  Popguns, mostly.

That said, Bennett wasn't just coachspeaking.  One thing Bennett has definitely shown the ability to do is shut down a team with one dynamic scorer and a bunch of schmos.  Easy: you focus on the schmos and let the scorer get his.  Terrell Stoglin used to have big days against UVA, and the Hoos still kept on spanking Maryland.  Green had 35 points in the last game.  Which, by the way, I was flabbergasted to hear when the announcers put it on the screen.  His teammates were junk.  Jarell Eddie shot 2-for-11.  Cadarian Raines took three shots.  Those are Tech's other two ACC-level players.

I guess I'd include Barksdale in that two and give Tech four in total, but he's not real assertive.  Barksdale's not a bad shooter but tends to disappear for stretches.  Mainly what you do against Tech is exactly what Bennett did last time: deny Jarell Eddie and you deny Green's main passing option.  The Hoos will let Robert Brown shoot all he likes.  He was 0-for-3 last time out (and had four fouls besides) and is not a threat.

Even though Tech generally takes care of the ball well (which is to say that Erick Green takes care of the ball well) there's not much they do that UVA can't stop.  The Hoos will be content to be occasionally embarrassed by Green, who gets his points no matter what.  UVA simply will not devote extra resources to defending him except as a changeup tactic.  They'll isolate him from his teammates and force him to try and score 50 or else lose.  I wouldn't put it past him to do that, but usually when you don't expect much out of his teammates, you're not disappointed.  Just force Eddie to shoot inside the arc and defend the paint effectively and you can't lose to VT.

-- Outlook

If there's two things that scare me, it's these: UVA tends to do badly when I talk confidently about the game.  And the team that previously lost has an advantage in the second game because they're more likely to make adjustments.  The short time between games may also be a problem, but UVA looked pretty good the last time they had a two-day turnaround (a Saturday against BC after Thursday against VT) and truth is I'm willing to trade prep time for VT in exchange for prep time against UNC, especially since UNC is laser-focused on their trip to Cameron.  I have to like UVA's chances to keep the hot streak going.

Final score: UVA 67, VT 52

Monday, February 11, 2013

terp-a-derp

"We don't need you!"

"We don't need you!"

Acidic chants from catty student sections are one of the best parts of college basketball, as long as deceased grandmothers are left out of it.  Football may be where the money and the crowds are, but football crowds don't have anything on basketball crowds when it comes to getting up underneath opposing skins.  Creativity abounds.  Few things are more entertaining then the crowd participating in the smack talk, sometimes much better than the actual players could ever get away with.

One of those things is watching your team throw it back in their faces.  Justin Anderson, the target of the above chant that rained down from (understandably, if we're being honest) jilted-feeling Maryland fans, seemed to feed off it.  His jumper gave UVA its first points, and when he sank two free throws, ice-cold as you please, the thought started to form in the back of my head that whatever venom Maryland students would send his way in the near future would backfire.  Those free throws took the lead from Maryland.  They would never get it back.  Full-force backfire was in effect.  This kid is gonna play a great game at Cameron Indoor one day.

We've already hashed out Jordan Williams's decision to go to the NBA and its cause-and-effect chain that led Anderson to where he is today, but it's fascinating to watch the consequences play out in real life.  Anderson is a smart guy who is soaking up Tony Bennett's coaching like a sponge, with sensational results.  There hasn't been a guy in Virginia blue and orange who made athleticism look so easy since Adam Hall.  Even Sean Singletary played more like a miniature explosion than with Anderson's lightning smoothness.  And his defense on Alex Len - to whom he gives up seven inches - helped Maryland fans start to wonder why Len is supposed to be a lottery pick.  That was surely just as important as his 17 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 assists.

Of course, there's a great deal of obvious irony in watching the Maryland fanbase get upset over "traitorous" behavior.  Those crazzzzy ol' Dookies got in a nice one a couple weeks ago, informing the Maryland hoops team to "don't come back.... don't come back...."  So when the Terp student section expressed their opinion about how badly they needed or didn't need Justin Anderson's skills, I couldn't help but think there were fifteen schools that felt the same way about Maryland.  Students, should the opportunity present itself when Maryland pays a visit next month (and assuming we don't intend to follow the Terps to the Midwest where we don't belong), you know what to do.

Further points in brief:

-- Lately I've found myself wishing we had a point guard that shot threes.  And Jontel runs the fast break with about the same philosophy as all the doomed chicks in a Freddy Krueger movie.  Then I look at the boxscore and go "whoa, eight assists."  Obviously something is being done right.  I'm not quite sure what, other than that Evans is pretty good at the drive-and-dish in the halfcourt set.

-- On the other hand, there's an advantage, or at least a small silver lining, to having Evans's defender playing six feet off of him.  Namely, that it plays right into Tony's slow-down-the-game hand.  And it gives Jontel a wide field of vision to calmly observe as the other scorers run around the halfcourt to their hearts' content until one of them gets open.  Most point guards are better when they get the chance to observe the action and make a nice calm decision, and Bub's no different.   Even so, I wouldn't mind seeing Tony put in a system where, in the second half (when we're shooting in front of our own bench) he can say a word or two and cause Evans to shoot the open three.  That wouldn't have to work very often for it to work.

-- Enough cannot be said about what the Hoos did to Alex Len.  Before desperation mode arrived (and Len tipped in a couple putbacks) he had five points and five rebounds.  Also with five rebounds at that point: Jontel Evans.

-- The general meme about Maryland's press, when they realized they had to knock the Hoos out of their comfort zone, is that UVA couldn't handle it.  Because, you know, there were some turnovers and some nervous moments.  But UVA got about as many cheap points out of Maryland's press as Maryland did, and that's basically the definition of handling it.  How do you think Paul Jesperson was so wide open for some of his threes? 

-- Of Maryland's ten rotation players, Logan Aronhalt sees the fewest minutes.  Sunday he saw more time than James Padgett and Charles Mitchell combined.  Backup point guard Seth Allen (a pretty good player in the future but still prone to chucking nutty turnovers) played just one fewer minute than Len.  It was obvious Mark Turgeon decided to try and play small to counter the success UVA was having with their own backcourt, but there's one problem with that: our backcourt is much better than theirs.  That was another huge key to the win.  I told you our size is mainly useful for shutting down regular-sized backcourts, and Turgeon gave up his size advantage and let UVA have one instead.

The next game is VT on Tuesday.  We have a little rivalry run here: Maryland, VT, UNC.  And, not to look past VT or anything (let's face it, we're at the point now where certain games will be taken for granted because if we don't win them, then there's no point in talking about any goals at all) but the single most important game left on the calendar is Saturday's tilt at Carolina.

Reason: We have, as it stands, a 1-game lead over the Heels.  If things go as they should this week (we play VT, Carolina plays Duke) we'll have a 2-game lead going into Saturday.  A win means a three-game lead with six to play.  But really, it means a four-game lead, because with a win in Chapel Hill, UVA will have the tiebreaker over UNC.  We already have it on NC State; we don't play 'em again this year.

There's a pretty fair-sized gap between the fifth and sixth-place teams, talent-wise.  NC State is dangerous; Florida State and below, less so.  Getting that tiebreaker over both UNC and NC State would put UVA squarely in the driver's seat for a minimum third place finish, with eyes on second; they would have to falter amazingly to lose it.  Third would be really, really nice, because unless UNC or NC State falls below fifth - unlikely - you'd be guaranteed to play FSU-or-worse in the ACC tournament.  And I'll tell you what, man; the mainest goal this season is probably just to get past freakin' Friday in the ACC tournament.  Do that and everything else falls into place.  So: beat Carolina (and don't eff it up against VT) and things will be looking sunnier than they have in a long, long time.

****************************************************************

Here are the results of this week's season sim, with last week's also presented for comparison:



UVA made a nice strong move, leaping past NC State because the Pack lost once and squeaked past Clemson, which didn't do them any KenPom favors.  KenPom rewards you for beating the flying shit out of someone, and UVA moved from 42nd to 22nd overall in his rankings with that win over Clemson and then up to 19th by beating Maryland.  Which, by the way, was a tossup game, so winning that along with the large percentage boost from the move up the rankings landed UVA with a roughly 3-in-4 chance, as we sit now, of finishing third.  Compare that with a 1-in-2 chance of beating UNC this weekend and it might undermine my message from above a little bit, but in a good way: beating UNC would be very helpful, but is not absolutely essential, to finishing third.

The other story here is that both teams on either end of the standings (Miami and VT) have done some very nice work solidifying their respective positions.  In two weeks VT has gone from about a 55% chance of the bottom seed to better than 4-in-5.  God's in His heaven, and all is right with the world.

Also, someone asked over the Twitters what our RPI would be if we'd beaten ODU.  I guessed "only about five spots" and, as it turns out, undershot by six.  UVA is 75th at the moment, and I calculate that'd go up to 64th if ODU had been a win like it damn well should've been.  I still say the committee will say "senior point guard injured" and ignore it, as long as we can keep on taking care of business.

Saturday, February 9, 2013

game preview: Maryland


Date/Time: Sunday, February 10; 1:00

TV: ACC Net., ESPN3

Record against the Terps: 71-106

Last meeting: UVA 75, Md. 72; 3/4/12, College Park

Last game: UVA 78, Clem. 41 (2/7); Md. 60, VT 55 (2/7)

KenPom:

Tempo:
UVA: 60.2 (#343)
Md.: 66.1 (#187)

Offense:
UVA: 104.9 (#93)
Md.: 104.5 (#102)

Defense:
UVA: 85.7 (#8)
Md.: 90.0 (#33)

Pythag:
UVA: .8876 (#23)
Md.: .8217 (#56)

Projected lineups:

Virginia:

PG: Jontel Evans (3.2 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 4.7 apg)
SG: Paul Jesperson (4.3 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 1.2 apg)
SF: Joe Harris (15.6 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.4 apg)
SF: Justin Anderson (6.5 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 2.2 apg)
PF: Akil Mitchell (12.5 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 1.6 apg)

Maryland:

PG: Nick Faust (8.3 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 2.8 apg)
SG: Dez Wells (12.0 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 3.1 apg)
SF: Jake Layman (5.4 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 1.0 apg)
PF: James Padgett (6.0 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 0.5 apg)
C: Alex Len (12.6 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 0.8 apg)

I was a little disappointed by that beatdown of Clemson the other day.  We didn't make it to 80 points AND we let Clemson over 40.  There is obviously work to be done.  Seriously though.  How many fans around the country of teams other than UVA say things like "aw man, they got to 40" on a semi-regular basis?

So halfway through the ACC's regular season, the Hoos are 6-3.  I'll take it.  There are some couldas, but I'll take it.  The second half will be tougher; it features Miami on the road, Duke at home, and four home games against five road games.  Upcoming this weekend is the third most difficult of those five: the enormously sized Maryland Terrapins.  Boo this team.

-- UVA on offense

You can start to see the cracks appearing in the depth, as is only fitting when we're trying to have a good season over here.  With both Mike Tobey and Darion Atkins out against Clemson, Tony Bennett had no choice but to go even smaller and try out Taylor Barnette in the rotation.  Barnette's defense is behind that of his teammates, hence his spotty presence on the court, but you can't knock his shooting.  He's brought a little instant heat off the bench in each of the last two games now, shooting 3-for-4 from three-range against Clemson.

This is a fortuitous development that we need to keep up.  We've got no hope whatsoever of matching Maryland's size; they're the second-biggest team in the nation.  Without Tobey and Atkins, our inside options are limited to Akil Mitchell and maybe driving the lane.  The consolation is this: outside of Alex Len, who you know all about, Maryland isn't much of a shot-blocking team.  It's probably not wise to drive with Len sitting underneath the basket, but even big, beefy backup center Shaquille Cleare isn't an inordinately great threat to swat a shot.  But they do tend to a nice job of altering shots; Maryland's two-point defense is 2nd-best in the country, and they stay out of foul trouble very well.

That means bombs away.  So it's not necessarily the worst thing ever to add another shooter to the rotation.  I would even advocate a five-shooter lineup of Barnette, Jesperson, Harris, Anderson, and Nolte (ok, four and a half) when Len is on the court, if that didn't leave the prickly question of who would guard him.  Chances to shoot will definitely appear, as Maryland doesn't aggressively defend the perimeter and doesn't try to clog your passing lanes.  Like UVA, they sort of invite you to swing the ball around the outside and dare you to try and drive, just for different reasons.  In Maryland's case it's because their bigs for the most part aren't too comfortable when the basket is too far away,

I'm a little nervous about the idea of going up against such a big team, especially on the road, because it makes the three such a necessarily big part of our game.  (Also, it would've done Tobey a lot of good to get the experience of going against Len on the road.)  UVA should be able to keep up the recent trend of staying out of the turnover column, but everything basically depends on whether the threes are falling.  The total interior dominance we saw against Clemson is going to dissipate pretty quick among the Maryland trees.

-- UVA on defense

Obviously this whole discussion has to start with Alex Len again.  He's a formidable dude.  Len's a classic European big man, which is to say he's pretty comfortable away from the basket.  Like Tobey, he likes jump shots.  Even so, the thing to do is keep him the hell away from the rim, because he's actually a much worse two-point jump shooter than Tobey is.  Let him near the rim and he's shooting 73%, much of that on putbacks because he's also a nasty-good offensive rebounder, obviously.  On two-point jump shots he's only at 32%.  I'll take those odds all day.

Because of their size, Maryland actually really likes those two-point shots from everywhere.  The slow but steady trend in hoops lately has been to make shot charts look like bullseye targets; that is, the ideal mix is three-pointers and layups.  You don't get any extra credit for jumpers at the elbow, but they're less likely to go in than layups.  Maryland goes against that trend because their size makes them tough to defend when they take shorter jumpers, and it sets up their rebounders to put back their misses.  They're one of the country's elite offensive rebounding teams.

Dez Wells and Jake Layman are the best at hitting the two-point jumpers, and Layman is a fair three-point shooter too.  Layman has been finding his way into the starting lineup lately.  He's a little like Evan Nolte - tall and tough to defend, but not especially strong.  Wells lays off the three-pointer mostly but does a lot of scoring by hitting jumpers in the lane or getting to the rim.

Besides size, Maryland is also notable for the size of their rotation.  Mark Turgeon has no problem rolling ten players in and out.  He's also had no problem tinkering with the starting rotation, being rather unsatisfied with his point guard play of late.  Nick Faust, for now, has taken over those duties.  He played the point last year out of necessity and here he is again, as Turgeon has tired of Pe'Shon Howard's somewhat random ways.  Seth Allen isn't quite ready for the starting job either, and so Turgeon turns to Faust as a calming influence.  Howard and Allen still get their chances off the bench, but Howard is starting to see his minutes disappear as he's a crummy shooter and not much use if he's turning the ball over too much for Turgeon's liking.

Since there isn't much three-point shooting here, Maryland uses Logan Aronhalt off the bench when the defense needs loosening up.  Aronhalt is the Terps' only really dangerous three-point shooter, and he only gets about 12 minutes a game but he shoots a ton when he's in, averaging almost 11 attempts per 40 minutes.  To put that in perspective, Joe Harris would have 184 attempts if he shot that much (and would be 7th in the country in 3-point percentage since right now, he doesn't qualify.  Frickin' NCAA pacists.)

Plus, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that besides Len, pretty much all the other Maryland bigs can get it done offensively.  James Padgett, Shaquille Cleare, and Charles Mitchell aren't really the focus of the offense, but none of them are stiffs.  So with all this size, why isn't the Maryland offense completely unstoppable?  Mostly, undisciplined guard play and turnovers.  They can definitely be coerced into a turnover, and since they don't get any on defense they tend to badly lose the turnover battle.  They're not as patient as they should be on offense, either; working the ball inside and shooting fewer threes would benefit them.

-- Outlook

Maryland's size is formidable, but their 5-5 record is a little deceiving.  Other than a one-point home win over NC State, their wins are built up on the ACC's dregs: VT twice, BC and Wake once each.  But they've protected their home court, with a three-point loss to FSU their only blemish in College Park.

UVA will probably win this game if the threes are falling.  They will lose and lose badly otherwise.  That's what it comes down to.  The kind of size we have - especially without Atkins and Tobey - is mainly useful for shutting down teams with normal-sized guards, not for dealing with a rotation chock full o' bigs.  Maryland's guard play isn't great, but I would expect Turgeon to try and force mismatches by putting multiple bigs out there to minimize UVA's backcourt advantage.  Joe Harris and Evan Nolte guarding Padgett and Mitchell could be an ugly sight.  Given UVA's tendency to go cold on the road, the odds are not in our favor.

Final scored: Md. 55, UVA 49

Wednesday, February 6, 2013

signstravaganza 2013

I don't know about you but I think UVA just had the best kind of signing day that it's possible to have: no losing recruits to UNC or Ohio State, minimal drama over a player who was pretty likely to pick UVA anyway (and did), and a little bonus surprise to top it off.

Mike London added two Signing Day additions to the class, in the forms of offensive linemen Eric Tetlow and George Adeosun.  Tetlow is a near-complete surprise, at least to me.  UVA tried to pry him from Wake Forest, where he'd been committed for about six weeks, in December around the week before Christmas.  Tetlow was like "nope."  So that, I thought, was that.  Adeosun was less surprising; he was a late bloomer who I'd have tracked a little more heavily (or, like, at all) if the 2013 board was still in operation.  He was at UVA on the big official visit weekend and after that was over his recruitment went nuclear.  Oklahoma and Georgia were probably the biggest two schools to offer him and make a run, after he'd spent most of the recruiting cycle committed to William & Mary.

In fact, Adeosun's UVA offer was probably what tipped off the rest of the world to his existence.  Fortunately, he's the studious type who isn't kidding when he says academics matter.  As for Tetlow, there's one thing that's worth getting out in front of.  His signing with UVA was probably as big a surprise to Wake fans as Brad Henson's flip to UNC was for us.  I reserve the right, of course, to be a raging hypocrite about the whole thing.  Can I criticize Henson for being sneaky and surreptitious and going along with Larry Fedora's spy games, and never say a word about Tetlow?  (Who literally called UVA in the dead of night to commit.)  Yes, I can.  It's my blog.  I don't have to, though: one interesting nugget that came out of Mike London's press conference was that our staff actually called the Wake staff and kept them apprised.  Talk about a rare sight in the world of recruiting.  So any comparisons between Henson and Tetlow are basically a non-starter.

Their commitments - nay, signings - bring the total class size to 22.  Will it fit?  A cursory check of the depth chart reveals 69 scholarship players, 68 if you don't count Kameron Mack.  That means 16 or 17 actual spots.  One obvious candidate and one maybe-candidate exists to be non-invited for a fifth year.  Expect a prep or two (I know one name but I don't think it's public enough for me to put out there), and I know of one other name that's a "longshot" to still be on the roster in the fall - that would be Kelby Johnson.  (There's a reason the staff suddenly went balls-out after offensive linemen.)  So there won't be much difficulty, again, fitting the class into the limits.  Mike London continues to do a nice job of hitting the sweet spot between being an oversigning dickhead and leaving his team undermanned.

Let's deal with each position one by one now.

QUARTERBACK - Corwin Cutler, Brendan Marshall

I really thought we were done when Marshall came on board early on, but Cutler was too good to pass up.  He wasn't much of a name last spring, with a "big three" dominating the QB discussion in the state.  Cutler's senior year turned that into a big four real fast.  Marshall is tough to gauge because Good Counsel didn't let him throw much, but he'll be the one with the tougher road to ever earning the starting job.  Cutler has a great arm and from the way the recruiting cycle played out, appears to be a natural leader that guys gravitate towards. 

UVA now has six quarterbacks, which is probably one more than I'd call ideal but setting us up well regardless.  I desperately want to have a conveyor belt going where a guy starts for two or three years and then another guy starts and then another and then so on, because nothing says "good, solid program" like stability at quarterback.  That doesn't happen overnight, though, and it's easily derailed, but we seem to be getting there.

TAILBACK/FULLBACK - Taquan Mizzell, Connor Wingo-Reeves

If you're diehard enough to read this blog you don't need to be told where to find the gem of this class.  Smoke Mizzell is primed to be a potential starter from day 1.  Scouts rave about his quickness, vision, pass-catching abilities, and general ability to put the hurtin'est hurt possible on opposing defenses.  We have plenty of good running backs, but if Smoke the player is anything like Smoke the hype, they'll be doing a lot more watching than they used to.

I list Wingo-Reeves here because fullback is his likely ticket to the field.  We don't have a proper one on the roster really, so there's a niche to be filled just waiting for him.

WIDE RECEIVER/TIGHT END - Keeon Johnson, Zack Jones, Andre Levrone, Max Valles

There isn't a plethora of game-breaking talent here - it's less than what we're used to seeing - but we didn't need much in this class.  We loaded up like crazy last year.  This group brings more solid depth to a position chock-full of depth, and they'll have the luxury (if they're patient) of redshirting and spending a year or two apprenticing before they're needed.  When they finally do see the field I expect a lot of polish on their games, and I would also be remiss if I didn't mention the size they bring to the position.  This is a group of big receivers, which is something currently lacking from the unit, at least among those who see the most playing time.

The only player currently labeled for tight end is Max Valles, a FUMA-prep holdover from 2012's class.  What Valles brings to the position kind of depends on what happens to the position in the future.  It's sorely lacking that one multidimensional player who can block and get open consistently.  Mainly it's lacking in the blocking category now that its two largest occupants have graduated.  Valles may be part of the answer there as he already weighs 240.

OFFENSIVE LINE - George Adeosun, Jack McDonald, Sadiq Olanrewaju, Eric Smith, Eric Tetlow

What a weird year for recruiting this position.  At the start it looked like it wouldn't be one of need.  When Olanrewaju, McDonald, and Brad Henson were aboard, that looked like a perfectly good group.  It matched our needs and none of them were mere filler.  When the class looked pretty full, though, the coaches kept hunting for linemen.  Not a bad idea, really, as the strategy for recruiting them is that more is always merrier.  Tim Cwalina's heart issue opened a slot.  Then Henson decommitted and the coaches must've had some idea that Kelby Johnson wasn't going to last, so they went into full overdrive mode and now three of the last four additions to the class (Smith, Adeosun, Tetlow) are offensive linemen.

It would seem that UVA made a good trade by swapping Henson for those three, even if they didn't mean to.  Adeosun is the most intriguing given the stunning explosion of interest in his services.  I would bet on his career being better than Henson's when the final tallies come in.  Henson had both the scouting grades and the offers, but when Oklahoma and Georgia are frantically trying to pull someone in, that someone must be pretty damn good too.  (And OU already has the Big 12's top recruiting class.)

So this year the O-line depth will be a little on the uncomfortably thin side, but the coaches did a good job of acting quickly to make sure that situation doesn't last too long.

DEFENSIVE LINE - Tyrell Chavis, Jack English, Donta Wilkins

We are looking a little thin here; I wouldn't at all have minded one more defensive end.  If I could have just one wish for this class it'd be another pass-rusher at DE.  That said, we completely owned D-line recruiting last year, so focusing on other positions won't hurt, and we're in awesome shape for the D-line in 2014 as well.  English is a project, so there isn't any field-ready talent at defensive end, but Wilkins was someone that more than one school tried extremely hard to pry from UVA, and Chavis's prep year at FUMA could make him a candidate to jump right into the lineup.  Chavis has been described as a manchild, just in time to inject some needed depth into the interior line after the loss of Chris Brathwaite.

LINEBACKER - Zach Bradshaw, Micah Kiser, LaChaston Smith

I love the balance and talent in this group.  From left to right, you've got a Sam, a Mike, and a Will all in one class, and the athleticism here is a big deal.  Three outgoing linebackers (Greer, Reynolds, and Windle) and three incoming - at one position at least, the universe is in perfect harmony.

It would be nice to redshirt Kiser so as to provide some separation between him and Kwontie Moore.  If Bradshaw is ticketed for the strong side, a redshirt year for him would be nice too, since that's where the most current depth is.  Smith will supposedly get a look at running back, where he starred for South Iredell, but he's going to be more in demand at linebacker and ultimately will end up there.  Smith, by the way, is already enrolled at school and will be present at spring practice.

DEFENSIVE BACK - Malcolm Cook, Kirk Garner, Tim Harris

We must have done alright here too because the DBs were some of the vultures' prime targets when the coaching staff changes went down.  Only Garner was left alone; UNC wanted Tim Harris like crazy and VT was all over Cook.  Cook is the lowest-rated of the bunch as Garner and Harris are both four-stars that provide quite a bit of the star power here, but the staff thinks Cook is the steal of the year.

Slotting-wise, Cook is a safety all the way and Garner and Harris are likely cornerbacks.  A third cornerback, Hipolito Corporan, defected to Utah in January, but that's not of much concern to anyone - we have a ton of CBs from last year and the depth chart is crowded.  It's really best to have been picky and go with excellent quality over quantity at this position.

KICKER/PUNTER - none

Booooorrrrrriiiiinnnggg.

**********************************************************

Let's get on with the traditional Signstravaganza lists:

Top five stories of the year in recruiting:

1. Holding onto the class in the wake of staff changes.  Henson was the only casualty linkable to the changes, really.  Corporan's departure was likely in the works for a while.  And Henson's position coach didn't go anywhere, so it wasn't totally about that either.  But the staff had to do a lot of work keeping the rest of the class in the fold.  Malcolm Cook had Shane Beamer in his ear constantly and Penn State might've sent an offer his way if he'd acted more interested in them.  UNC tried like hell to loosen up Tim Harris and Donta Wilkins, and people were always dialing Taquan Mizzell's number - again, Carolina in particular.  Micah Kiser had a very brief Maryland flirtation, and the new staff at Boston College was working Jack McDonald hard.  (And let's not forget that USC made a run at Andre Levrone very early in the cycle and was politely told no.)  On the one hand it sure is nice to have players that people want.  On the other hand, piss off, vultures.  But everything held up well.  The mid-January official visit weekend just about sealed the deal for everyone.

2. Offensive line blitz and Signing Day surprises.  Circumstances conspired to turn offensive line into a major need, and the coaches were up to the task, unearthing George Adeosun and flipping Eric Tetlow, and the addition of Eric Smith in December also provides needed depth to the class.  Adeosun and Sadiq Olanrewaju - besides both having jawbreakers for a last name - are two guys that the UVA staff did yeoman work in finding before anyone else did and they may just be the top two linemen in the class.

3. Smoke.  He made us wait til August (which when you think about it isn't really that long of a wait) but he made the call he'd long been expected to make and gave UVA's class its headliner.

4. Decommitments.  Last year's class was mostly free of decommitment drama.  Mario Nixon was the only player we got that had been committed elsewhere, and it's not like that was a huge surprise since he was the only Hokie on a high school team full of Hoos.  It was really the Hokies that made a big ol' kerfuffle out of it.  And UVA suffered no decommitments of its own.  This year, we've mentioned Henson and Corporan, and Tetlow as well, but Adeosun was also technically a decommitment (William & Mary) and don't forget Bradshaw, whose commitment to Penn State understandably lost its flavor when PSU received their crippling sanctions.

5. Package deals.  Fans always seem to think they'll happen when two players are friends coming from the same school, and they never do, but UVA tried.  Actually, I guess you could consider the Good Counsel trio - Levrone, Marshall, and Garner - a small success in this regard.  UVA also tried to convince a Massachusetts trio (none of whom went to the same school, but were close regardless) that Charlottesville was the place for all three of them; ultimately, they all went to three different schools and Jack McDonald was the only one that picked Virginia.  (Maurice Hurst called UVA his runner-up while heading to Michigan and Tevin Montgomery stayed instate for BC.)

Five most likely to play as true freshmen:

1. Taquan Mizzell
2. Tyrell Chavis
3. Connor Wingo-Reeves
4. Malcolm Cook
5. LaChaston Smith

Mizzell because duh.  Chavis has that FUMA year under his belt and is coming into a position that could be thin - I think he has a chance to strut his stuff and nose his way into the rotation.  There is basically nobody at fullback anymore.  Zach Swanson could be moving back to tight end.  Vincent Croce is making the switch from D-line to fullback, but that gives him just as much college experience there as CWR.  If Wingo-Reeves does indeed get slotted at fullback, as I hope he does, playing time is completely up for grabs.  The coaches seem to really, really like Cook, and there could be room to nose into the two deep at safety.  Ant Harris and Brandon Phelps are likely locked in as the starters, but there could be backup snaps to be had, and Cook is a top candidate for special teams if not.  LCS is an early enrollee and likely ticketed for the thinnest part of the linebacking corps, where D.J. Hill and Mark Hall are set up to battle for playing time.

Five I'm most excited about:

1. Taquan Mizzell
2. Corwin Cutler
3. Micah Kiser
4. Tim Harris
5. George Adeosun

Mizzell because duh.  Plus this section has a bias toward skill-position guys.  Offensive guards don't exactly light the lamp.  Cutler is way intriguing.  I was skeptical of the idea of offering him because frankly I'd never heard of him and we didn't seem to need any more quarterbacks, but I was more than willing to keep an open mind and see what happened his senior year, partly because ESPN's scouting report basically said "it's bullshit this guy has no offers."  Let's just say he had a very convincing senior year.

Kiser and Harris are two guys at playmaking defensive positions who have consistently high guru ratings and high-level offers to match.  Kiser had offers from Florida, Oklahoma, and Stanford; Harris from Michigan andOhio State.  And then there's Adeosun.  The frenzy around his whirlwind January is hard to ignore, plus there's this: he's another Will Hill in the classroom.  And this is Virginia, after all.

Five sleepers:

1. George Adeosun
2. Malcolm Cook
3. Tyrell Chavis
4. Connor Wingo-Reeves
5. Eric Tetlow

Inclusion here means two things: each prospect got two stars from at least one service (or in some cases, totally ignored - Malcolm Cook can't have been entered into the Scout database longer than two weeks ago) and I have to have some reason to be excited about what they bring.  Adeosun (Rivals two-star, Scout ignoree), we've covered, extensively.  Cook and Chavis (Scout two-stars) as well.  Wingo-Reeves (two stars across the board) has that excellent potential at fullback that we've discussed.  And Tetlow (Scout two-star) has a decent offer list and very good size for a high-schooler.

Five highest-rated:

1. Taquan Mizzell (4.25 stars)
2. Tim Harris (4 stars)
3. Micah Kiser (3.5 stars)
4. Kirk Garner (3.25 stars)
5. Corwin Cutler (3.25 stars)

Simply a matter of averaging the four services' stars.  Donta Wilkins would be sixth; he has 3.25 stars as well, but among he, Garner, and Cutler, he's third of those three to three services.

Eat it Shaney:

Tyrell Chavis
Malcolm Cook
Jack English
Tim Harris
Taquan Mizzell

The list of players with Tech offers.  The list going the other way is rather larger, going by Rivals' database, but I'm calling bullshit on a few of the listed names.  Tech wins head to head, but I'm not buying some of the listed offers (Jonathan McLaughlin, for example) and there are others where they won the battle but we ended up better off anyway (offensive line.)

Eat it Randy:

Zach Bradshaw
Kirk Garner
Micah Kiser
Jack McDonald
Eric Tetlow

The same list, but for Maryland.  Randy Edsall is not good at keeping Virginia out of his stomping grounds; three of those guys are from the state of Maryland, and only one player with a UVA offer ended up at Maryland: linebacker Yannick Ngakoue from DC.

Eat it Larry:

Malcolm Cook
Tim Harris
Keeon Johnson
Jack McDonald
Taquan Mizzell
Eric Smith
LaChaston Smith
Donta Wilkins

The same list in powder blue.  There are six players that went the other way, most of which we offered but either weren't that serious about or they were never serious about us.  Brad Henson is the obvious name that comes to mind; Dajaun Drennon is another that we were in the running for, for a while anyway.  I do question Carolina's dedication to Eric Smith once they'd picked up Henson, and I dunno how big they were on McDonald or Johnson.  They wanted Harris bad, though.  Wilkins, too, as well as, duh, Mizzell, and they definitely also tried to at least get into Cook's ear.  Larry Fedora has basically declared war on Virginia with pronouncements that he's making the 757 and the state in general a huge priority - but UVA pulled two guys out of his state and he struck out in Virginia.  That may not last into 2014, but it sure is fun for now.

The ones that got away:

Adam Breneman (Penn State)
Maurice Hurst (Michigan)
Peter Kalambayi (Stanford)
Mike McGlinchey (Notre Dame)
John Montelus (Notre Dame)
Wyatt Teller (Virginia Tech)

These are the biggest misses.  They all fill positions of need (which is why there's no Derrick Green or Christian Hackenberg - they're good but we got other good ones), are high-quality players, and at one time we had a legit shot at getting them.  OL is generally a position where there's always room for one more, and McGlinchey and Montelus are hell of nice pickups for Notre Dame.  Kalambayi picking Stanford was a bit of a disappointment, as was Hurst going to Michigan.  Hurst was all UVA til that offer came from Ann Arbor, really.  Breneman is an outstanding tight end who decided to waste his talent in Happy Valley.  But the biggest killer of all is Teller.  At one point he was very damn close to picking UVA, but the pendulum slowly swung back toward Blacksburg, and didn't I say we really could use a pass-rushing defensive end in this class?  Tech beat us for a lot of players, but at this point, none of them would I really want to bother adding to the class (well, maybe Kendall Fuller, but he's not on the above list because he never seriously considered the Hoos) - except Teller.  Damn.

**********************************************************

Finally, for amusement purposes, here is the 2013 recruiting board as it originally looked.  There are future UVA signees on it in every section but one - curiously, that's the green one.


And thus we put the bow on the recruiting class of 2013.  Class of 2014, assemble.

2013 lacrosse schedule

Mega spoiler alert: This year's lacrosse schedule, as always, is the same as last year's.  (Except that Bellarmine has replaced Penn as the end-of-season contest.  I know, I'm not that excited either.)  The format is as follows:

Conference: The abbreviated name of the association of teams to which this particular lacrosse program belongs
Preseason rank: In the Inside Lacrosse media poll and USILA coaches' poll, respectively
2012 computer: LaxPower's final 2011 computer ranking
2012 record: Obvious
2012 tournament: Obvious
Last season: What we did to them or they did to us

2012 O-rating: My KenPomish calculation for this team's offensive prowess last year
2012 D-rating: My KenPomish calculation for this team's defensive prowess last year

To give the O- and D-ratings some context, the national D-I average last year was 15 and most teams fall in the range of 10-20. (A couple extraordinary ones are outside that range.)  High is good for offense, bad for defense, obviously.  Let's get right to it.

Drexel - Sat., February 16th - Home
Conference: CAA
Preseason rank: RV/RV
2012 computer: 17th of 61
2012 record: 8-8
2012 tournament: none
Last season: W, 9-8

2012 O-rating: 16.72 (17th of 61)
2012 D-rating: 14.11 (26th of 61)

Drexel always plays a tough game; UVA's early season jitters always seem to show in the first game.  That could be even more so this year, with an offense that's almost totally brand-new.  Fortunately, Drexel's defense is mostly brand-new too.  Giant-sized goalie Mark Manos is gone and Drexel has an assortment of underclassmen to try and replace him, as well as having to find two new starting defensemen.  Of course, we got the goalie thing going on too, and Drexel's offense returns two quality senior attackmen in Robert Church and Brendan Glynn.  As usual, don't expect a cakewalk.

VMI - Tue., February 19th - Home
Conference: MAAC
Preseason rank: none/none
2012 computer: 59th of 61
2012 record: 4-10
2012 tournament: none
Last season: W, 19-5

2012 O-rating: 12.28 (52nd of 61)
2012 D-rating: 17.95 (55th of 61)

Interestingly, VMI was actually much better last year than usual.  Their four-win season was the best they've had since 2008.  VMI has a solid goalie, Matt Lindemann, but most of their offensive firepower graduated and so did their two-thirds-success-rate faceoff guy.  (Of course, they usually seem to find a pretty good one regardless.)  Anyway, there won't be any drama here.  Even a better VMI team gave up 19 goals to the Hoos.

Stony Brook - Sat., February 23rd - Away

Conference: America East
Preseason rank: none/none
2012 computer: 34th of 61
2012 record: 7-10
2012 tournament: 1st round loss to Johns Hopkins
Last season: W, 12-5

2012 O-rating: 15.30 (28th of 61)
2012 D-rating: 15.73 (36th of 61)

For a time there, Stony Brook was quite the upstart, but they came crashing to earth last season after losing just about everyone who built that team, including the coach.  Sort of.  The A-East isn't a great conference, and Stony Brook won the tournament and earned the right to be basically the 15 seed and get creamed by Hopkins.  The America East media picked them second this year, as they have to break in another new goalie, but they have good offensive building blocks in sophomore attackman Mike Rooney and playmaking middie Jeff Tundo.  Rooney was one of the country's top freshmen last year with 34 goals, so he'll provide a test to UVA's defense.

Mount St. Mary's - Tue., February 26th - Home

Conference: NEC
Preseason rank: none/none
2012 computer: 40th of 61
2012 record: 6-9
2012 tournament: none
Last season: W, 17-5

2012 O-rating: 16.28 (20th of 61)
2012 D-rating: 17.89 (54th of 61)

Last year - or more specifically, in 2011, but at this time of year in 2012 still - my rating system put the Mountaineers 4th in the country on offense.  Now I have a way to adjust for schedule.  Mount St. Mary's is still pretty decent offensively, though.  Last season three guys scored exactly 29 goals for them - Bryant and Brett Schmidt and Andrew Scalley - and all return again this year.  So their identity as a team with a good offense and crummy defense should be intact, and they'll be in the hunt for the NEC's first-ever tourney autobid.  Also note: they have a bench-riding LSM named Matt Ward, for what that's worth to ya.

Syracuse - Fri., March 1 - Away

Conference: Big East
Preseason rank: 12th/13th
2012 computer: 16th of 61
2012 record: 9-8
2012 tournament: 1st round loss to Duke
Last season: W, 14-10

2012 O-rating: 15.21 (29th of 61)
2012 D-rating: 13.15 (16th of 61)

So last year there I was sitting in my rented apartment in Peru, hung the shit over from too much pisco sours, algarrobina, and Johnny Walker Red, and what do I have on my laptop but the gametracker for the Syracuse game.  Isn't the Internet wonderful.  I would've had the actual game but ESPN3 is finicky about internet providers and Peruvian ones don't fly and I wasn't in any mood to hunt around for a stream.

Anyway, this is the last year of this game being played out-of-conference, which, given UVA's preference for playing the ACC games all at the end of the season, may cause the schedule to juggle for the first time in like years.  The other interesting thing about Cuse is that the pollsters don't really expect them to be all that good.  They certainly weren't too hot last year; in fact if you followed my bracketology you remember they spent the season at severe risk of not getting into the tourney.  Scoring was tough to come by for the Orange - their options were limited - and it'll probably be that way to some extent this year too.  They'll have the same questions we do when it comes to "where's the scoring coming from," only more so, and it looks as though the pollsters expect them to struggle once again to grab an at-large bid.  Last year they won the Big East autobid, but they'd better get it figured out by 2014 because they'll be joining a conference without one.

Vermont - Tue., March 5 - Home
Conference: America East
Preseason rank: none/none
2012 computer: 56th of 61
2012 record: 2-12
2012 tournament: none
Last season: W, 16-10

2012 O-rating: 11.05 (57th of 61)
2012 D-rating: 16.75 (45th of 61)

How this piteous offense managed to score 10 goals on us last year is something we might want to look into.  No other team that beat them allowed so many, and that's a long list.  Vermont had basically two players who were a threat to do anything last year, one of whom is now gone.  Attackman Drew Philie scored 29 goals, but nobody exists who can consistently create anything for anyone else - eight is the highest returning assist total, so Philie's total probably won't be that high this year.  Picked sixth in the 6-team (and lousy) America East conference, UVM is about as good a candidate for biggest cupcake as VMI.

Cornell - Sat., March 9 - Home
Conference: Ivy League
Preseason rank: 6th/8th
2012 computer: 11th of 61
2012 record: 9-4
2012 tournament: none
Last season: W, 9-8 (OT)

2012 O-rating: 18.54 (6th)
2012 D-rating: 13.73 (22nd)

The conventional wisdom from last year is that Cornell missed the tournament because of Rob Pannell's injury.  That's certainly got a grain of truth to it, as Pannell was off to a blazing start with 16 points in just two games - not even two full games, really.  Goalie play was just as responsible, however.  I wrote last year that a lot depended on how well A.J. Fiore bounced back from a poor sophomore season, and he played awful and was replaced by Andrew West, who only managed a .515 save percentage himself.  Whoever plays in net for the Big Red this year will have help - they have a solid lineup of defenders - but has got to be better than that.

Pannell is back for a rare Ivy League fifth season of eligibility and will of course be a complete terror.  The guys that stepped up in his absence also mostly all return; Steve Mock and ex-UVA transfer Connor English are 20-goal scorers and Matt Donovan and Max Van Bourgondien are quality playmakers.  Add Pannell to that and Cornell will have a damn good offense and should end up back in the tournament if they can settle their goalie situation down.

Ohio State - Sat., March 16 - Home
Conference: ECAC
Preseason rank: 20th/19th
2012 computer: 19th of 61
2012 record: 8-7
2012 tournament: none
Last season: W, 11-9

2012 O-rating: 14.11 (38th of 61)
2012 D-rating: 11.59 (5th of 61)

The Buckeye story is the same as it was last year's preseason: very tough defense, ass offense.  Ohio State is to lacrosse as UVA is to basketball, so when goals are not scored in an OSU game, people chalk it up to that, but those are tempo-free numbers above.  They really are good at defense and bad at offense.  They still have Logan Schuss, one of the country's top scorers last year with 39 goals and 18 assists.  Jesse King and Dominique Alexander also provide a modicum of scoring punch.  But that's about it.  OSU will remain tough to score on because Greg Dutton is a solid goalie and because they like to play keep-away when they have the ball, but the new stall-warning shot clock may force them to take shots they don't like and make a bad offense look even worse.  (Or, worst-case scenario: make them realize they can score after all, and do it a lot more often.)

Johns Hopkins - Sat., March 23 - Baltimore
Conference: Independent
Preseason rank: 5th/4th
2012 computer: 10th of 61
2012 record: 12-4
2012 tournament: 2 seed; lost in quarterfinals to Maryland
Last season: L, 11-10 (OT)

2012 O-rating: 16.50 (18th)
2012 D-rating: 10.66 (2nd)

It'd be tough to rank a team with as good of a defense as Hopkins's out of the top 5, so the pollsters didn't.  Hopkins returns last year's William C. Schmeisser Award winner for the nation's top defenseman: Tucker Durkin.  He and Chris Lightner form a very tough pairing, and Pierce Bassett in net is one of the better goalies in the nation too.  A pedestrian .522 save percentage in 2012 probably doesn't tell the whole story; the defense kept a lot of shots from even happening and only the better ones got through.

Hopkins also returns almost their entire scoring contingent; Brandon Benn and Zach Palmer are two excellent attackmen, and of last year's top seven scorers, only one isn't back.  All that adds up to a pretty legitimate national title contender.  Plus, technically our game against them is a neutral site game, but in Baltimore, so not especially.

Maryland - Sat., March 30 - Home
Conference: ACC
Preseason rank: 2nd/2nd
2012 computer: 4th of 61
2012 record: 12-6
2012 tournament: Lost to Loyola in championship
Last season: W, 12-8

2012 O-rating: 18.65 (4th of 61)
2012 D-rating: 12.54 (9th of 61)

Is this the penultimate UVA-Maryland lacrosse game?  Maybe.  If so, it's their last game at Klockner unless the NCAA tournament matches up the two teams, and I admit to sharing the sentiment of the Duke fans at Cameron who serenaded the Terps' hoops team with a "Don't Come Back" chant.

Anyway, the pollsters didn't put a lot of movement into the polls between the end of last year and the beginning of this one.  Maryland is 2nd in both, behind Loyola, last year's champ.  Personally I like Hopkins better from a lineup standpoint.  Maryland still has their excellent goalie, Niko Amato, a good defense, slightly more attrition on offense.  The Terps lost their top scorer and some midfield depth - mainly referring to Michael Shakespeare with the latter, as he was a guy who was always good for second-line offense.  At attack, there's Owen Blye and Billy Gribbin, both productive scorers, and a very dangerous first-line midfield led by John Haus and Drew Snider.  From where we sit here in early February, though, Hopkins is still the toughest team up til this point on the schedule, if only by a nose.

North Carolina - Sat., April 6 - Home
Conference: ACC
Preseason rank: 7th/4th
2012 computer: 13th of 61
2012 record: 11-6
2012 tournament: 8 seed; lost in 1st round to Denver
Last season: W, 15-10

2012 O-rating: 18.22 (7th of 61)
2012 D-rating: 14.80 (29th of 61)

Carolina looks awfully similar to Cornell at this point.  They'll bring back an offense that's one step shy of terrifying; a three-headed monster of Marcus Holman, Joey Sankey, and Jimmy Bitter at attack will test even elite defenses, and they have a solid, deep midfield too.  Like Cornell, they bring back a very good faceoff man; in UNC's case, R.G. Keenan, who won over 60% last year.  And like Cornell, they're not too settled in net.  Steven Rastivo had only a .505 save percentage last year and must improve that for UNC to be a true final four contender.  The Heels also return just one of three starting defensemen.  That's the kind of uncertainty that causes such a big discrepancy in their poll rankings, the kind you don't usually see near the top.

Duke - Fri., April 12 - Away
Conference: ACC
Preseason rank: 4th/6th
2012 computer: 7th of 61
2012 record: 15-5
2012 tournament: 3 seed; lost to Maryland in semifinal
Last season: L, 13-5

2012 O-rating: 18.60 (5th of 61)
2012 D-rating: 13.04 (13th of 61)

Like it ever matters what these guys have.  This game is one of the top yearly embarrassments in all of UVA sports.  First we have to listen to the announcers talk for 30 minutes straight about nothing but how we never beat Duke, then we have to watch the game, which is never even close.  I'm not sure which is worse.  Last year a team with Steele Stanwick on it scored five goals on Duke, and it's not even like Dan Wigrizer is a good goalie.  In the Thank God For Small Miracles department, C.J. Costabile is no longer around to take faceoffs; I know the stats don't quite show it but actually watching our guys try to face off against him was more pitiful than watching a one-legged puppy try to walk.

There's still the matter of their explosive offense, though; Duke brings back three 30+ goal scorers in Jordan Wolf, Christian Walsh, and Josh Dionne, a set of three attackmen to rival Carolina's.  Given that this game is on the road and our inexperienced team will probably be fairly beat up at this point, I'm thinking of pretending this game doesn't even exist.

Bellarmine - Sat., April 20 - Home
Conference: ECAC
Preseason rank: none/none
2012 computer: 39th of 61
2012 record: 4-8
2012 tournament: none
Last season: did not play

2012 O-rating: 13.20 (42nd of 61)
2012 D-rating: 15.18 (33rd of 61)

Maybe these guys are the lacrosse substitute for Louisville on the future schedule; they exist in the same city, anyway.  What they really are is Penn's replacement after a two year stint with the Quakers.  Penn is Ivy League and therefore has the name recognition, but truth is, Bellarmine isn't much worse from a tempo-free perspective.  This will be Bellarmine's ninth year as a D-I program, and they're slowly bringing themselves around to respectability - better than you might figure a very small D-II (in all other sports) school in Kentucky would fare in lacrosse.  They lost a lot of close games to good teams last year, including Maryland, Loyola, Fairfield, and Robert Morris, and you know they'll be gunning for UVA to finally get a signature win.  They'll need to put up a better showing on offense, though.  Only three players scored double-digit goals last year and two are gone, leaving attackman Michael Ward to try and carry the load.  Unlike the Penn games the last two years, this one is before, not after, the ACC tournament.

*****************************************************

I did promise the results of the weekly basketball season simulator, so here they are, below.  Note that UVA moved down, not up, an unsurprising result since GT was a tossup but KenPom said were basically supposed to beat NC State.  Miami is busy solidifying its #1 seed and VT is working hard to make #12 all its own.  I included last week's for comparison.

A commenter asked that I put in the teams' records each week.  So that's not in here this week, but next week it will.

 
 

Tuesday, February 5, 2013

2009 recruiting class in review

Two things bring us to today's post, which is a recap of football's 2009 recruiting class.  One is that Signing Day is this Wednesday; fewer than 48 hours from now, the 2013 class will be in the books.  Second is that I've actually been writing this thing long enough to do this; the 2009 class was the first that this blog covered with a recruiting board.  That makes today an appropriate time to take a look back and see how that class fared.  The stars next to each name are the ones Rivals gave each player.

DECOMMMITMENTS (3)

RB Alex Owah ***

Short version: Academically ineligible and never signed.

Owah committed very early in the process, but was declared ineligible a month before Signing Day and never made it into the class.  He had more than his share of problems, actually.  Academics kept him out of the class entirely; he spent a semester at Hargrave and enrolled at East Carolina in January of 2010.  Before that, he'd been involved in high school in a prescription drug ring, for which one of his teammates (the distributor) got a mostly-suspended 35-year jail sentence, and oh by the way as a sophomore had "helped plan" an armed robbery.  Owah's academic ineligibility was probably the admissions department saving Al Groh from himself.  The summer after he signed up at ECU, he was arrested for trying to purchase alcohol while underage, and a year and a half later, in November 2011, he was booted from the Pirates team for good.  Wherever he's landed since then, I have no idea and am probably better off not knowing.

RB Caleb Porzel ****

Short version: Decommitted in favor of Maryland; didn't last long there.

Unlike Owah, Porzel was only part of the UVA class for about a month and a half, and an early portion of the cycle at that.  He was a Good Counsel product who committed in February and started having second thoughts a month after that; shortly thereafter, he decommitted.  In July he was a Terp and that was the end of his recruitment.  Sadly for Maryland, the four-star recruit lasted one season, in which he played sparingly and rushed for 75 yards in seven games.  Struggles in the classroom forced him to leave Maryland in summer of 2010; he ended up at East Central Community College in Mississippi and, as best as I can tell played sparingly again in one season and then gave up football.

WR Tyree Watkins ***

Short version: Was a bitch.

And I'm not usually that harsh on college athletes, but Watkins is one who deserves it.  By now the story of how he strutted around on his official visit to UVA like the King of Rose-Smelling Shit is pretty well known; he talked as much trash as he could pack into a weekend, much of it directed at Tim Smith, who Watkins felt was undeserving of his fourth recruiting star that in Watkins's mind belonged to Tyree Watkins.  Less than three weeks later Watkins was a Duke commit instead.

Watkins carried his yapping over to the field, actually taking the time to stand next to the UVA tunnel at Scott Stadium after halftime of the 2011 Duke game, saying something to every UVA player that exited.  Except, as the story goes, Cam Johnson. 

That was the last time Watkins appeared in a game against UVA, however.  Last spring, Watkins celebrated a big showing in Duke's spring game - preceding what would have been his senior season - by going out with the lads that night.  Fun, until he decided to beat around his (now ex-, obviously) girlfriend, who reported the incident to the police.  Watkins was arrested April 2, kicked off the team April 4, and served 75 hours of community service.

If Watkins's words of contrition from the above article are sincere, however, and you know what, I hope they are, that story may have a happier ending than the other two.  Watkins finished his Duke degree in December and then enrolled at Wagner (in Staten Island) for this spring to play one and possibly two more seasons of I-AA football.  It would be refreshing to hear of a better finish to Watkins's college career than the one he spent three years working on.

DIDN'T MAKE IT THIS FAR (8)

WR Quintin Hunter ****

Short version: Transferred to JMU.

Hunter was one of Al Groh's biggest 2009 recruits, but spent only one season at UVA.  He got a cursory look at quarterback but was quickly moved to wide receiver, where he played as a true freshman but made only one catch that year.  Hunter was among the players who left the team in the wake of the coaching change, something that changes tend to cause, and transferred to James Madison, where he's been playing only sparingly.  The reason Hunter gave for leaving was that "his heart was no longer into playing football," which is basically just politeness.

He'll have one more season at JMU in 2013; though he didn't have to sit a year after transferring, he tore his Achilles tendon in 2011 and missed that season.  In 2012 he started six of 11 games and caught 13 passes for 191 yards.

DB Corey Lillard ***

Short version: Transferred to Liberty and then quit football.

Not much of a story here.  Lillard also left following the coaching change, although he didn't go until the summer.  He transferred to Liberty, played a season (five games, actually) and then decided to drop football for good.

LB Connor McCartin **

Short version: Career derailed by concussions.

McCartin never made it onto the two-deep and probably never would have, but he was developing into a nice special teams ace and was heading into his junior season with a prominent role on kick coverage.  Unfortunately, he suffered a concussion early in fall camp of 2011, which was the fourth of his football career, and the staff at UVA's hospital told him his career was over, having not responded well to this latest one.  He was kept on the roster in 2011 so that he could act as a sort of student-coach, and then placed on medical scholarship.

QB Ross Metheny ***

Short version: Couldn't crack the lineup and transferred to South Alabama.

After biding his time, including redshirting his first season and then playing some off the bench in 2010, Metheny was entered into 2011's four-way quarterback derby and essentially placed third of four, ahead of Michael Strauss but behind Mike Rocco and David Watford.  Though he remains a UVA fan, Metheny finished his degree in just three years, clearing the way for his transfer to South Alabama.  There he played all 13 games in 2012, starting most for the fledgling program in their first year as a I-A team (and only fourth ever) and throwing for 2,148 yards, 12 TDs, and 12 picks.  He has one more year left as a Jaguar.

WR Kevin Royal **

Short version: Dismissed from the team

Royal never could crack the lineup either - he played a little in 2010 but not at all in 2011 - and then was dismissed by Mike London in the spring of 2012 for "failing to meet expectations," which could mean any number of things.  Royal did not leave UVA and will finish his degree on time this spring.

DB Javanti Sparrow **

Short version: Academic casualty

Sparrow played on special teams as a true freshman in 2009 (one of the examples redshirt fanatics would point to right now if Sparrow had stuck around, since he was in for a grand total of 23 plays) but following that season, ended up academically ineligible at UVA.  He declared an intent to return in 2011, but never made it back; in 2011, he was instead at Liberty.  But only for a few days; he hasn't been heard from since.

DT Hunter Steward **

Short version: Academic casualty who also ended up at Liberty

Another guy who couldn't stay eligible at UVA.  Steward redshirted 2009 and spent his two years at UVA flip-flopping between offensive and defensive line.  He left after 2010, and spent 2011 (his first at Liberty) as a backup defensive lineman who registered a few tackles here and there and played on kick-block units.  In 2012 he flopped back over to the offense, and started all 11 games for Liberty; he'll be a 5th-year senior there in 2013 and a likely second-year starter.

RB Dominique Wallace ****

Short version: Quit football

That's all there is to it, really.  Wallace played two years as a backup running back, and then decided football wasn't for him and left the team after the 2010 season.  He stayed at UVA to finish his studies, and was the object of a great deal of wishful thinking from some UVA fans who held out hope he would change his mind.  He did not.

NEVER PANNED OUT (3)

S LoVante' Battle **

Short version: Special teamer only

Battle spent a year as a linebacker and two years as a safety buried on the depth chart and playing almost exclusively on special teams; for spring practice in 2012, he moved to fullback and was buried in a different position on the depth chart, also playing almost exclusively on special teams.  Probably the highlight of his career was a 22-yard run in garbage time against Richmond in 2012, his only carry of the season.

WR Bobby Smith **

Short version: Has basically never played

Smith's height gave him some potential as a short-yardage, perhaps red zone receiver, but he's done basically nothing but occupy a scholarship.  His career summary on his profile page on the official site is two lines long and has three years' worth of "did not appear in any games" and one (2010) that mentions three games and no stats.  He's never had a catch; in fact it's rare to find a player who's had as little impact on any program anywhere as Bobby Smith.  The yearly scholarship crunch makes him a near-lock not to be asked back for a fifth year.

LB Tucker Windle ***

Short version: Got further back on the depth chart as career progressed

Windle was another object of frustration for the redshirt fanatics, but major depth issues left Al Groh little choice but to start Windle at middle linebacker against Virginia Tech as a true freshman in 2009.  It didn't go real well.  In 2010 he played about half his plays on defense and half on special teams, but by 2011, his junior year, he was almost exclusively a special teamer, and had sort of disappeared by 2012.  That 2009 start was probably the high water mark of Windle's career.

USEFUL (4)

TE Paul Freedman ***

Short version: Respectable blocking tight end

To the extent that there was a starter at tight end in 2012, Freedman might as well have been it.  At any rate the official site says he started 10 of 12 games, so that's what he did.  Freedman never developed into a pass-catching tight end; when the coaches wanted someone to do that, Jake McGee was their main guy this year, and Freedman only had 26 total catches, and two touchdowns, in his four-year career.  His main job was basically to be a sixth offensive lineman on run plays, which he did well.

TE Jeremiah Mathis **

Short version: Switched from DE to TE

Mathis made the aforementioned switch in the middle of the 2010 season and hasn't looked back.  I sort of waffled as to whether he should be here or in the previous section, but Mathis redshirted in 2009 and may have another year to add to his stat line.  At any rate, he hasn't been invisible; he's caught at least one touchdown every season and has 14 total catches in his career.  He's a decent short-yardage target but not as good at receiving as Colter Phillips or Jake McGee and not as good a blocker as Freedman, and his fifth year likely hinges on whether there's enough attrition otherwise to fit the 2013 class under the limit.

DT Justin Renfrow ***

Short version: Depth defensive tackle

Depth problems at DT make it very likely Renfrow will come back for his fifth year in 2013.  But his career has so far been more about potential than production.  2012 was the first season in which Renfrow appeared in every game of the season, and his next start will be his first.  He's more of a space-eater than a playmaker, and the emergence of Chris Brathwaite and of David Dean was threatening to keep Renfrow parked at the back of the rotation.  It remains to be seen whether Renfrow can parlay his experience into a starting role in 2013 or if he'll still be the fourth tackle in a four-man rotation.  Neither would surprise.

OG Cody Wallace **

Short version: Possibly being overtaken on the interior line

Wallace had an interesting story, which maybe he didn't find too interesting at the time.  He showed up in the fall of 2009 for practice, but was held out until some eligibility issue or another could be resolved.  It turned out to be unresolved - I think it was something about a missing class from his transcript - and he had to spend the fall at Fork Union finishing up his requirements.  He was back with the team in the spring of 2010 and redshirted that season, which made him only a sophomore this past year.  After an unremarkable 2011, he started the first game of 2012 at left guard, but ended up bumped from the starting lineup by Conner Davis.

Wallace had already been bumped once; for a time there he was being groomed as the next starter at center, but it didn't pan out that way.  He'll fight to regain the starting job this year, but the likelihood is that he'll spend the next two years as a backup, rotating in for maybe a quarter to a third of the offensive plays.

CORE OF THE TEAM (7)

C Luke Bowanko ***

Short version: Current starter at center

Bowanko will be a fifth-year senior in 2013 and going into his third year as an every-game starter on the offensive line.  In 2011 that was at right guard; in 2012 it was at center.  Truthfully, he was a better guard than center, having some early season trouble with shotgun snaps, but the signs of improvement were there as the season went on.  His early development - being an every-game starter as a redshirt sophomore - has contributed greatly to some solid cohesion on the offensive line, but the offense will need to see better output from the whole interior next season if it's to produce consistently.

RG Sean Cascarano ***

Short version: Current starter at right guard

When Bowanko moved to center, Cascarano was the beneficiary; he started all 12 games at right guard.  He was a little slower than Bowanko to develop into a starter, partly due to moving from tackle where he spent his first two years.  2009 was a redshirt year, and in 2010 he jumped right into the rotation as a backup tackle, but 2011 saw him sit the bench a lot more, learning the guard position.  He's got the versatility to play tackle again if needed, but ideally will play his fifth season at the same place he did last year.

OT Morgan Moses ****

Short version: Could live up to the mega-hype by fixing a couple flaws

Now this was a recruiting saga.  First we had to wait all through 2008 and into Signing Day 2009 before Moses made his choice official, and he was definitely the kind of recruit worth waiting for.  Big, powerful, and with offers from half a million other schools; eventually, UVA beat out UNC, Tennessee, and flirtations with Ohio State.  Then we had to sit nervously for another year while Moses got eligible at Fork Union, and fended off another year's worth of non-UVA suitors.

For the most part, it's been worth it.  Though some (including me) think he'd be a better guard than tackle, a tackle he is.  He's been just advertised in the run game; the guy can absolutely mow people down when he starts moving in a straight line, and as a pass protector, power rushers just get eaten up.  But Moses has trouble with speed rushers because his footwork is a little lacking.

As if the recruiting pins and needles weren't enough, Moses was eligible as a sophomore to declare for the NFL draft, because of his prep year at FUMA.  But he's stuck with UVA every single time that he had a chance to leave and will come back for his senior year in 2013.  For his whole career he's been a right tackle, starting practically every game in 2011 and 2012, and he'll move into the left tackle spotlight in 2013.  It's definitely an audition year for the pros, and a really good one could make me look silly for "only" putting him the "core" category.

LB Laroy Reynolds ***

Short version: Thrived at linebacker after London moved him from safety

The next category is "stars" and Reynolds is a tough one to keep out of that list.  He was a team captain in 2012, had 90 tackles, and ended up an honorable mention for all-ACC as well.  Recruited as a safety by Groh, London moved him to outside linebacker, a position he took to instantly.  He ended up a three-year starter and improved his numbers every year, despite missing two games this past season with a hand injury.  Aggression occasionally got the better of him on the field, but just as often it got him into the backfield making a play.  The highlight of his career: Probably the fourth-down TFL against Miami in 2011 that helped preserve a one-touchdown lead and ultimately the game.  Since Reynolds played a few plays on special teams as a true freshman, his eligibility has run out, giving Groh's critics their biggest piece of ammo ever against the burning of redshirts.

WR Tim Smith ****

Short version: Productive pass catcher

As a four-star player from one of the top football factories in the 757, there was obviously a lot of excitement for Smith when he joined the team.  His production hasn't been anything to sneeze at really, but it hasn't been four-star stuff, either.  Injuries have been a real problem; a foot injury caused him to miss most of 2010 and eventually earned him a medical hardship waiver that let him redshirt that year, and an ankle injury held him out of a couple games in 2012.  His best season was 2011, in which he started 10 games and had 33 catches for 565 yards - not too shabby.  But with the emergence of Darius Jennings as the team's top option, the days of expecting Smith to play that role are probably over.  In 2013, there should at least be hopes that Smith can be a dangerous complement to Jennings and give the Hoos a dynamic starting duo of receivers.

DE Jake Snyder ***

Short version: Solid run-stopping defensive end

Snyder is no star, but he was never pegged as one; he was a high three-star defensive end whose production has come to just about exactly match expectations.  He jumped into the starting lineup to stay as a redshirt sophomore in 2011; he's got only 3.5 sacks for his career, but rushing the QB isn't his primary job.  Snyder is a big strongside DE who plays almost as a third DT on the field and does a very nice job handling his blockers, to the point where he led the D-line in tackles this year with 44.  A very nice number for a lineman, actually.  Snyder will be back for his fifth year in 2013 as one of the top fixtures on the line.

DT Brent Urban **

Short version: From no-name to starting defensive tackle

Fans like to call every two-star recruit a sleeper.  Look, sometimes they're overlooked for a reason.  Urban is one of the few deserving of the title.  He comes from the Great White North and needed a little time to get acclimated to the American game, but once the light came on, it came on big, living up to the high praise he received from ESPN, the only recruiting service to do so.  Urban jumped with both feet into the rotation in 2011 after redshirting 2009 and being sparsely used in 2010, and by this past season he was an every-game starter at tackle.  His numbers don't pop off the screen, but that's because he's a tackle, not an end, and he did end up with two sacks in 2012, not bad for an interior linemen.  The best highlight of his career is easily his touchdown on a fumble return against VT this year.  Jake Snyder will be the 2013 veteran presence on the outside, Urban on the inside.

STARS

OT Oday Aboushi ****

Short version: Three-year starter and two-year all-ACC honoree

You can't deny that this recruiting class turned up some halfway decent offensive lineman.  I even wrote a piece for ITA about that earlier in the fall.  And it's hard to say the top prize hasn't been Aboushi, a late decommitment from Boston College who committed to UVA late in the cycle.  (Don't feel bad for BC.  We were close to getting Luke Kuechly right around the same time.)

Aboushi turned out pretty damn good.  A team captain, he built on a 2nd-team all-ACC selection in 2011 to make the first team this year, and represented UVA at the Senior Bowl.  He probably took a few too many holding penalties and, like Moses, had a little trouble with speed rushers.  But that's nitpicking.  Aboushi jumped into the rotation as a true freshman, rare for an O-lineman, and proved he belonged.  By the sixth game of his sophomore year he was the starting left tackle and never gave up the job.

DT Will Hill ***

Short version: Proved early enrollment can work at UVA

If we're being totally honest with ourselves, Hill's playing career probably belongs in the previous category.  As a defensive tackle, Hill moved slowly up the ranks and was only a full-time starter during his senior year, 2012.  As a sophomore and a junior he was a rotation member, but started only one game, and that was the Peach Bowl, thanks to injuries elsewhere.  Hill was mainly solid, but not spectacular.

Why here then?  For one, Hill was the first early enrollee in ages.  Al Groh and the admissions department were always butting heads for an assortment of reasons, one of them being that UVA was persnickety about letting any first-years enroll in January.  They had to come in the fall with their class and get the full college experience, otherwise they might not acclimate correctly.  Right, because football players are normal college students.  They finally relented, with Hill as the guinea pig, and it must have worked because we've had early enrollees every year since.

The other reason: this is UVA, and we give a shit about the classroom.  And Hill's dual-major degree in biology - yeah, biology, you lazy bum of an English major, you - and African-American studies is one of the most impressive things I've ever seen out of the football program.  I mean damn.

RB Perry Jones **

Short version: Natural leader and integral part of the offense

Jones was the high school player of the year in the state as a senior, but not too many people paid attention to that; he managed just two stars and three D-I offers (BC and Navy were the others.)  Maybe they should've.  Perry Jones was one of those guys who just knew football, and after returning kicks in 2009, found his calling as a running back the next year.  Truthfully, he peaked as a junior, racking up 1,468 all-purpose yards and being named a team captain, a very rare honor for a non-senior.  Jones's production dropped considerably in 2012, along with the rest of the offense, but for three years he was one of (if not the) most prominent skill position players on the team.  Not bad for one of the most overlooked prospects of the class.

******************************************************

The 2009 class in one sentence is pretty damn good in the trenches and very hit and miss everywhere else.  Offensive line recruiting especially was highly fruitful - Aboushi, Moses, Cascarano, Bowanko, Wallace, all have started at least one game and the ceiling is the NFL.  The defensive line turned out nicely too, with Hill, Snyder, Urban and Renfrow.

The storyline at the time was that Al Groh had re-established a presence (if, as it turned out, only fleetingly, at least for Groh) in the home state.  16 of these guys came from within the borders of Virginia.  Groh went to valuable pipeline schools like Oscar Smith and Varina, and also pulled recruits from both DeMatha and Good Counsel (though the latter recruit ended up at Maryland eventually.)  There were five of the top fifteen and seven of the top 30 recruits in the state.  But the class also suffered from high-ish levels of attrition; nearly one-third of it failed to finish out their UVA careers.  Part of it can be blamed on the coaching change; that class had been around long enough to get used to Groh and his staff but not long enough that they lost a lot by leaving.  Change coaches in Year X and the recruiting class of Year X-1 will likely be decimated; it's just the way football is.

However, the lucky thing for UVA (at least in terms of perception) was that of all the players that left, all of them left before doing anything that would've made them partially indispensable.  They left behind potential, nothing more, which is to say that there weren't any Jeffrey Fitzgeralds in the class.  None but Kevin Royal spent more than two years on the roster.  And none of the decommitments were ever missed either.

Essentially, this class is the ammo against the "Groh left the cupboard bare" argument.  A lot of productive players came out of it, and this class's legacy is as the primary bridge between the Groh era and the London era.

P.S. - for those of you patiently waiting for the results of the basketball season simulation that I promised last week, I'm breaking that promise and replacing it with an ironclad cross-my-heart for the next post.  It's getting kinda late and I already shirked enough homework to get this post out.  It's not as exciting as it ought to be anyway since, you know, we lost to GT and all.