what if?

The Big Ten has been making expansion, and therefore the total revamping of the college football landscape, the topic of offseason discussion. The funny thing is it didn't even have to do anything. Almost literally, all they've ever said is "we're thinking about expanding" and suddenly the Big East, ACC, and Big 12 are all set to disappear in a puff of smoke, the Big Ten, Pac-10, and SEC are going to be super-duper-mega-conferences, and the entire NCAA is going to dissolve. If you're the type to believe everything you hear, you're probably already stocking up on gasoline, ammunition, and can openers and waiting for The Road to come out on DVD so you can glean some valuable survival lessons.

The way I see it, the ACC's new TV deal was as big a watershed moment for the conference as you'll see this decade. It ensured survivability. It was also validation for the last round of expansion. ESPN doesn't pay that much to a nine-team conference with no championship game. The conference is no longer a plausible target for the picking and can afford to wait and see what the Big Ten does.

And if the Big Ten causes a landslide by adding more than one team, then I think you'll see 2015 dawn on a larger ACC as well. Especially if the Big East ceases to be a viable BCS football conference, and as it is, it's clinging to that status by a fingernail or two. Michigan blog Maize 'n' Brew points out that the Big East managed to dole out just $5.5 million to its football schools - if that. That's light years behind everyone else. Big East football can't survive the loss of two football members, and its basketball-only schools like Marquette and Villanova probably would love to push the football members out the door anyway.

So I'm curious as to what future ACC expansion might look like. I basically stole this idea, but I'm the kind of guy who likes breaking stuff down like this anyway. Below you'll find a grid that evaluates the expansion candidates on a number of categories:

- academics
- football prowess
- basketball prowess
- quasi-revenue sports prowess
- cachet
- size
- geographical fit
- intangibles

I rated every school from 1 to 10, but if it didn't earn at least a six, it reverted to zero. Why? For example, take JMU and Texas-Pan Am and their basketball prowess. There's a sizable difference between the two; on a scale of 1 to 10, JMU would get a 3 maybe and UTPA gets a solid 0, because JMU would crush UTPA nine out of ten times. But for the ACC's purposes, JMU is equally useless. Geographically, Missouri is over twice as close to the ACC as Stanford, but they're both far enough away that they're horrible fits. Below a certain level, the ACC isn't going to be interested in what you have to offer there. Geography is the exception, because it's understood I'm not bothering with the Utahs of the world.

An explanation of the categories:

- Academics is based mainly off the USN&WR rankings, which is a pretty crude way to do it, but simple and tells you what you need to know. (Duke and UVA good; FSU not as good; ECU horrible.) 10 is Duke and UVA; 1 is Marion Barry High School.

- Football prowess: 10 is Texas and USC; 1 is Eastern Michigan.

- Basketball prowess: 10 is Duke and UNC; 1 is UTPA.

- Quasi-revenue sports: this is a category I totally made up based on what UVA and the ACC are good at (because this is a UVA blog, I care about how expansion would affect what we do) and what's ever likely to show up on TV at some point. These sports are soccer, women's basketball, men's lax, and baseball. 10 is UVA; 1 is, I dunno, UTPA again.

- Non-revenue sports: you know, like swimming, tennis, track. 10 is Stanford; 1 is, hell, let's keep picking on UTPA.

- Cachet is my way of fudging things a bit. The ACC is an old-school conference with old-school boosters, and if there are two schools that are pretty equal in their accomplishments of late (say, USF football and Pitt football) this is a good way to tiebreak the two. 10 is Michigan and Alabama; 1 is Florida Atlantic.

- Size: important because more alums = more money. 10 is Arizona State; 1 is Wofford.

- Geography: 10 is the Research Triangle schools; 1 is St. Louis; anything below that, and, like, why?

- Intangibles: no number rating because they're, you know, intangible. Just here to point out what else they'd bring that's of interest to fans and probably not of any interest at all to the check-writers.

Without too much further ado, here are the candidates. They include all eight Big East football-playin' schools, plus four more that make geographic sense if nothing else. The ACC would add Big East schools if the Big East fell apart and at least look in the direction of the other four if for some crazy reason armageddon happened and the ACC had to replace departed members or die. None of these schools are or have ever been in any way mentioned as candidates except as pure, unadulterated speculation such as I'm doing right now. For the lazy, everything below is presented in a handy chart at the end. Here goes:

Buffalo





Academics: 5 (0)
Football: 3 (0)
Basketball: 3 (0)
Quasi-rev: 1 (0)
Non-rev: 2 (0)
Cachet: 0
Size: 7
Geography: 3
Intangibles: none

Total: 24 unadjusted, 10 adjusted

This is only on here in case someone's thinking, "well, we looked at Syracuse once and Buffalo's not too far away from that." Anyone who thinks it's a good idea for the ACC to add Buffalo is probably a grouchy Ball State fan who wants them out of the MAC. The funny thing is their academics are better than a lot of BCS schools (especially SEC ones) but still ranked lower than every ACC school.

Central Florida





Academics: 4 (0)
Football: 5 (0)
Basketball: 3 (0)
Quasi-rev: 3 (0)
Non-rev: 6
Cachet: 2 (0)
Size: 10
Geography: 6
Intangibles: none

Totals: 40 unadjusted, 22 adjusted

UCF is pretty worthless at basketball and brings nothing to the table in the quasi-revenue department save a sometimes halfway decent women's basketball team. They're even bad at baseball, surprising for a Florida team. Their saving grace in the non-revenue department is women's soccer and a fair track squad. But the bottom line: the ACC would and should never give UCF a sniff unless the SEC filched both Miami and FSU and the brass felt it important to maintain a Florida presence. Even then there are better options.

Cincinnati:





Academics: 4 (0)
Football: 8
Basketball: 6
Quasi-rev: 2 (0)
Non-rev: 4 (0)
Cachet: 6
Size: 8
Geography: 3
Intangibles: none, really, though they have a basketball name that'd look good in the ACC

Totals: 41 unadjusted, 31 adjusted

In a Big East armageddon scenario, I think Cincy is going to be one of the unfortunate odd ones out; perhaps duking it out with Louisville for the last available spot in an SEC that's decided they can pick off the Big East's low-hanging fruit at discount prices. But here, you see why it's a good idea to adjust all sub-six scores to zero. They come in just a point above UCF if you don't do that, but four out of five dentists will tell you the ACC would at least listen to Cincy's pleas after the Big East goes under. The fifth dentist is insane.

The Bearcats still aren't a great fit for the ACC, though, academics and geography being the kickers.

P.S. - their football rating might seem low given that they've been to two straight BCS bowls, but with Brian Kelly gone their glory days are over.

Connecticut





Academics: 7
Football: 7
Basketball: 10
Quasi-rev: 6
Non-rev: 7
Cachet: 8
Size: 7
Geography: 6
Intangibles: man, that ACC basketball tournament would be tough. Also, could renew rivalry with Boston College, which does not like UConn.

Totals: 58 unadjusted, 58 adjusted

Here's your fit. And the best part is, the Big Ten is probably only moderately interested, despite the erroneous reports that the Huskies had already been extended an invite. It's an Atlantic Coast state, the football is improving, the academics are right in line with the rest of the conference, and obviously they are basketball, basketball, basketball. Plus they have quality soccer programs for the men and women, decent non-revenue sports (field hockey, for one) and are playing amazing baseball this year, especially for a northeastern team.

Historically, I'd like to think of the Big East as the northeastern power conference and the ACC as the south-central one, but the Big East's football days are coming to an end and in the brave new world of ultramoney college athletics, UConn could find a very nice, long-term home in the ACC.

East Carolina





Academics: 2 (0)
Football: 7
Basketball: 2 (0)
Quasi-rev: 4 (0)
Non-rev: 4 (0)
Cachet: 3 (0)
Size: 7
Geography: 10
Intangibles: the word Carolina in the name has got to count for something

Totals: 39 unadjusted, 24 adjusted

ECU has nothing going for it but a decent football team that would probably get better once they could recruit to the ACC, and geography. Even their once-darling baseball team has been floundering. Academically, the ACC presidents aren't going to tolerate the idea.

Louisville





Academics: 4 (0)
Football: 5 (0)
Basketball: 9
Quasi-rev: 7
Non-rev: 7
Cachet: 6
Size: 6
Geography: 3
Intangibles: none

Totals: 47 unadjusted, 38 adjusted

In the final word, somewhat undistinguishable from Cincy. Better basketball, better quasi- and non-revenue sports (very good baseball team and decent soccer and swimming), worse football. The football would get better with the ability to recruit to the ACC, though. But ultimately, academics and geography work against the Cardinals, just as with Cincinnati. If you forced me to choose between the two, I'd take Louisville, but it's not a fit.

Marshall





Academics: 4 (0)
Football: 4 (0)
Basketball: 3 (0)
Quasi-rev: 2 (0)
Non-rev: 1 (0)
Cachet: 4 (0)
Size: 5 (0)
Geography: 5 (0)
Intangibles: none

Totals: 27 unadjusted, 0 adjusted

Just, no.

Navy





Academics: 9
Football: 6
Basketball: 2 (0)
Quasi-rev: 6
Non-rev: 6
Cachet: 8
Size: 2
Geography: 9
Intangibles: The ACC could get its claws into the Army-Navy game ca$h every year, which is probably half the reason Navy stays independent in the first place.

Totals: 48 unadjusted, 46 adjusted

Navy would make a very intriguing, out-of-the-box choice for expansion. They'd also be one of the least likely to want to join. The football team would probably never go to a bowl again, as they'd lose the ability to schedule a steady diet of Louisiana Techs, Delawares, and Western Kentuckys. And they'd be locked into the same three out of four nonconference matchups every year, because they can't not play Army, Air Force, and Notre Dame. There's a reason Army got out of the conference membership business in football. An intriguing idea, but forget about it.

Pittsburgh





Academics: 8
Football: 8
Basketball: 9
Quasi-rev: 3 (0)
Non-rev: 6
Cachet: 8
Size: 7
Geography: 6
Intangibles: Because they're already inside the Big Ten Network footprint, they're likely to get passed over by the Big Ten expansion tsunami.

Totals: 55 unadjusted, 52 adjusted

This must have been a weird football offseason for Pitt faithful. When the Big Ten announced expansion, the whole world assumed they meant just one team. Pitt looked like a really, really logical choice to be rescued from football purgatory to join their Pennsylvania brethren (which hate each other) to bask in the golden rays of the money-shitting BTN.

Now that mega-expansion is on the table and it's clear the main idea is to expand the BTN's footprint, Pitt is suddenly looking at some doom-spelling writing on the wall. It'd be a shame to see a school with as much tradition as Pitt relegated to Conference USA, and no doubt the Pitt brass thinks so too. If they don't get an invite to the Big Ten, they'll be banging on the ACC's doors next, and the ACC should take a look-see. Other than a lack of strength in the quasi-revenue department, they bring a lot to the table, not least a lot of TV-watching eyes in the state of Pennsylvania. UVA would benefit, too, by playing some football games in the recruiting happy hunting grounds.

Rutgers





Academics: 7
Football: 7
Basketball: 3 (0)
Quasi-rev: 3 (0)
Non-rev: 6
Cachet: 5 (0)
Size: 10
Geography: 8
Intangibles: Speaking of football games in the recruiting happy hunting grounds...

Totals: 49 unadjusted, 38 adjusted

I purposely set Rutgers' cachet number just below the cutoff point. See, they have name recognition, but for the better part of the last fifty years, that name recognition meant "football suck." When the Big East booted Temple a while back, a lot of people wondered why Rutgers didn't go with them. Lately they've been alright, and could get better if they could recruit to the ACC. Plus they're the SUNJ, after all, so they're HUGE, and people seem to think NYC cares about them, meaning TV ratings. But NYC does not. Rutgers is OK at stuff that doesn't get on TV, but would be an unexciting lightweight in the sports that get ratings. I guess it's cool that we could beat up on them, but if you could choose between Pitt, UConn, and Rutgers, which would you leap at? Not Rutgers.

South Florida





Academics: 4 (0)
Football: 7
Basketball: 5 (0)
Quasi-rev: 6
Non-rev: 5 (0)
Cachet: 3 (0)
Size: 9
Geography: 6
Intangibles: none

Totals: 45 adjusted, 27 adjusted

USF rubs me totally the wrong way, and I'm not the only one who doesn't like 'em. I used to like the idea of a fourth major team in Florida siphoning off talent from FSU and Miami, but their basketball program is skeezy as hell, and the school its very self is obnoxiously uppity. (Jim Leavitt didn't like that billboard, for what it's worth, but he didn't turn out to be the paragon of father figures, either.) South Florida in the ACC would make me gag; fortunately, the only reason they were in the Big East was because the Big East wanted to maintain a Florida recruiting presence after Miami left, and the only reason the ACC would invite them would be the same. The only reason for their presence in a BCS conference was their Florida digs. No worries: in a few years they'll be stuck in C-USA where they belong.

Syracuse





Academics: 8
Football: 4 (0)
Basketball: 10
Quasi-rev: 8
Non-rev: 6
Cachet: 9
Size: 6
Geography: 6
Intangibles: You know the history here.

Totals: 57 unadjusted, 53 adjusted

And the only reason they're not higher is because they're smallish compared to mecha-Rutgers and a little bit off the beaten path. Obviously, the ACC already thinks Syracuse is a fit. ACC lax would rule all, forever. You bet your ass they'll try again if the Big Ten doesn't invite them first.

Temple





Academics: 4 (0)
Football: 5 (0)
Basketball: 8
Quasi-rev: 1 (0)
Non-rev: 4 (0)
Cachet: 4 (0)
Size: 8
Geography: 7
Intangibles: none

Totals: 41 unadjusted, 23 adjusted

Yeah, I'm surprised too, that Temple isn't exactly an academic beacon. Seriously. I thought they were higher, but they came in pretty low. Of course, the reason their nickname is the Owls is because of Temple's origins as a night school, which is a very different dynamic from the southern Ivies in the ACC.

Anyway, about all they really have going as an ACC candidate is good basketball (and only recently resurgent into the upper echelons at that) and location. Nothing to see here, really. A possible fate for Temple is a re-invite to a football-less Big East.

West Virginia





Academics: 4 (0)
Football: 8
Basketball: 9
Quasi-rev: 2 (0)
Non-rev: 7
Cachet: 7
Size: 7
Geography: 7
Intangibles: Could restart rivalry with Maryland.

Totals: 51 unadjusted, 45 adjusted

The national media thinks WVU would be a terrific fit for the ACC. Location is about right, brings worthy competition to bear in football and basketball, has an existing rivalry with Maryland (it's not so much because they're border states, but there's a natural tendency for two horribly-behaved fanbases to get on each other's nerves.) And of course, they'd be natural rivals for UVA and VT, right?

Probably not. Neither Virginia school has shown much interest in a football series with West Virginia. And except for extreme geographical proximity (as when two rivals share a state or their fanbases share a metro area, as in UVA/Maryland) you don't generally see rivalries sprout up between two university cultures so diametrically opposite. Interstate rivalries are between schools with much in common, or with the same goal in mind, like UVA/UNC, Texas/Oklahoma, USC/ND, or Michigan/Ohio State. UVA is fratty, preppy, blue-blooded, and full of history. WVU hoots, hollers, holds grudges, and burns couches.

Besides, WVU wouldn't make the cut academically, and you have to remember who these decisions are ultimately made by.

Below is the easy-on-the-eyes chart:



The top three choices would be UConn, Syracuse, and Pitt. Athletically, academically, and culturally, they're all excellent fits for the ACC. So of course those are some of the schools at the top of the Big Ten's list, too. I don't know how the Big Ten expansion gambit will play out, and neither does anyone else, no matter what they tell you. But the Big Ten isn't going to snarf up all of them, and you shouldn't be the least bit surprised if in five years, at least one of those three schools calls themselves a proud member of the Atlantic Coast Conference.