final lacrosse bracketology

With the selection show coming on tonight - in about five hours - this serves as a prediction, obviously.  I'm looking forward to comparing my projections with those of LaxPower and IL and the other semi-pros out there.

I was hoping Maryland's loss to Colgate would bump UVA up a seed to 7th, and if you just looked at the RPI and SOS, it'd be obvious.  But Maryland was undeniably more successful in the ACC than we were, and try as I might I can't change the fact that we lost to them.  Funny that both Maryland and Villanova lost, which I was hoping for, and because they both lost instead of just one, it didn't change much at all, though it did make it perfectly clear that we're hosting a game.

The conference tournaments were very interesting.  Hofstra and Penn should be able to survive losing; Stony Brook probably will not.  Harvard made a run but it should be remembered that they only split the season series with Penn, so winning that game this week wasn't enough to leapfrog them.

Ironically it looks like the biggest effect of Maryland's Colgate loss was to weigh down Duke and UNC a little bit; UNC doesn't get quite the bump they'd've hoped.  Actually they check in a little higher on the seeding and so should play a #6 or #7 team, but....those are ACC teams and I don't envision the committee doing that.  So, bad luck for the Heels, they're shipped out to Denver.

Last struggle was between Hartford and Siena.  It probably matters not the tiniest bit except for my own pride in getting this right.  Hartford has generally better metrics overall, but lost to Siena.  If they switch those two, then I go "dammit" but the tourney moves on with business.