postseason possibilities

Time to see how the postseason picture shakes out with only two more games to go.  First, the chances of getting to the ACCCG in Charlotte.  I was gonna hold off on this just because, but UVA just guaranteed itself a winning record yesterday, which is nice.  Even more importantly, the Coastal Division race stands with all but two teams eliminated.  One of them is UVA.  Anyone who predicted before the season that the Coastal Division would come down to Virginia and Virginia Tech, no you didn't.

(In case you don't believe me on this, here's your process of elimination.  Obviously, teams with four or more losses are out; Georgia Tech has three, and the only way they get on top of the division is in a three-way tie with UVA and VT.  That would give us the division because the only way there's a three-way tie is if VT loses out - meaning to UNC and us - and we lose to FSU as well.)

Basically, then, here's your Coastal Division scenarios.  UVA plays FSU next weekend at 7:30, and VT hosts UNC at 8:00.  VT clinches if they win and we lose, which is unfortunately the most likely possibility.  UVA cannot clinch next weekend; even if we win and Tech loses, it only sets up a tie to be broken in Scott Stadium on Thanksgiving weekend.  So - we lose, Tech wins, they get the division.  Any other outcome - either a UVA win or a VT loss - sets up a divisional showdown.  Of course, you're rooting for the Hoos in Tallahassee, but you're rooting almost as hard for the Heels in Blacksburg.  (Heather Dinich says, "UVA needs to win out" but that is not true unless she's assuming VT will beat UNC.  Don't be confused.)

So where does that leave us bowl-wise?  I'm sorry to say that the win yesterday renders one of my predictions likely false; UVA almost certainly won't go to the Military Bowl in DC, as I projected before the season.  Well, not that sorry.  At this point, there's just no way that seven ACC teams are ahead of us in the bowl hierarchy.  NC State probably cost itself bowl eligibility with their bed-shitting in Boston - as was pointed out to me as a reminder, they need seven wins because two are against I-AA teams.  That means beating Clemson next weekend.  You never know, but probably not.

Wake Forest and Miami can still make bowl eligibility, and I think probably will, but even if they do, no sane bowl official will take Wake and its tiny tiny alumni base over Virginia.  That leaves a maximum of six teams ahead of us.  And Miami isn't well-known for filling up stadiums or traveling well.  Maybe they pick Miami for name recognition, maybe not.  Anyway.  The Military Bowl is basically out, and it looks like the ACC won't fill a Hunger Bowl slot either.

I'm still not gonna bother with the Orange Bowl or either of the two bowls after it, not just yet.  Those would require wins against teams that are theoretically or actually better than we are.  But since we're talking about getting to the ACCCG, let's at least start with the minimum prize for making it to Charlotte.....

-- Sun Bowl (El Paso)

Matchup: Pac-12 #4
Potential opponents: Washington, Arizona State, Utah, California, UCLA

The Pac-12 is Oregon and Stanford, then the ineligible USC, then a big soup.  I think that Washington and Arizona State are the best teams of that bunch, but it's kind of hard to say.  ASU and U-Dub seem likely to finish 8-4, so I expect one to be third and one fourth.  In that case, whichever the Holiday Bowl doesn't pick will go to El Paso; both bowls would probably prefer the much closer and rather larger ASU.  However, in order to get here, UVA will have to pull off probably two upset wins.

-- The former Tire Bowl (Charlotte)

Matchup: Big East #3
Potential opponents: Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Rutgers

Again: soup.  The Big East is a competitive race, no doubt about that, but chock-full of mediocrity.  I was hoping Cincinnati would maybe eliminate themselves from this possibility by getting a leg up on the conference with a win over West Virginia, but, no, they suck too.  UVA will probably need to pull off at least one upset to get to this bowl.

-- Music City Bowl (Nashville)

Matchup: SEC #7/#8
Potential opponents: Auburn, Florida, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State

Now here is a bowl I think UVA has already earned its way into even at 7-5; the question then is, who do bowl organizers like?  This bowl has the 6th pick.  If we lose the next two to go 7-5, that puts Clemson, VT, FSU, and GT ahead for sure, with UVA in a mix with UNC and Miami.  Miami doesn't travel well, and UNC has a chance to play its way out of consideration for finishing ahead of UVA, or might be pick #5 in Charlotte.  If you subscribe to the idea that FSU and VT will each be too big of a hurdle - certainly a major possibility - this is a likely landing spot.

As for the opponents, Auburn looks very likely to be the 6th team in an SEC hierarchy.  UGA, USCar, LSU, Alabama, and Arkansas are the top five, in some order.  Florida has finished their SEC season at 3-5, which is guaranteed to be below Auburn at (likely) 4-4.  However, the Gator Bowl has 6th pick, and never underestimate the draw of Florida in their home state.  Auburn could drop.  The other variable, of course, is the BCS, which could very easily take two SEC teams.  In fact, it probably will.  That bumps Auburn up even further, so really they're just here as a contingency.  In that case Florida is definitely not getting past the Gator Bowl, and that leaves you with Vanderbilt and Mississippi State.  In that case the Music City Bowl is very, very likely to try and engineer Vanderbilt into the matchup for obvious reasons.

-- Independence Bowl (Shreveport)

Matchup: MWC #3
Potential opponents: San Diego State, Wyoming

This is the other likely invite at 7-5, and the worst-case scenario besides.  And I don't mean that to sound bad.  The MWC structure is TCU, then Boise, then one of these two teams.  Wyoming beat SDSU earlier this year and will likely finish a game ahead in the standings, but San Diego is the obvious choice from an eyeballs and butts perspective.

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There you have it then.  I'm off to watch the basketball.  Get excited for prime time next Saturday.