game preview: Michigan State

Date/Time: Sunday, March 22; 12:10

TV: CBS

Record against the Spartans: 0-4

Last meeting: MSU 61, UVA 59; 3/28/14, New York, NY; NCAA Sweet Sixteen

Last game: UVA 79, Belmont 67 (3/20); MSU 70, UGA 63 (3/20)

KenPom:

Tempo:
UVA: 58.5 (#349)
MSU: 64.0 (#216)

Offense:
UVA: 112.1 (#24)
MSU: 113.7 (#16)

Defense:
UVA: 86.1 (#2)
MSU: 95.6 (#48)

Pythag:
UVA: .9544 (#5)
MSU: .8799 (#17)

Projected lineups:

Virginia:

PG: London Perrantes (6.5 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 4.7 apg)
SG: Malcolm Brogdon (14.2 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 2.4 apg)
SF: Evan Nolte (3.1 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 0.7 apg)
PF: Darion Atkins (7.6 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 0.7 apg)
PF: Anthony Gill (11.6 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 0.8 apg)

Michigan State:

PG: Travis Trice (14.8 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 5.2 apg)
SG: Lourawls Nairn (2.3 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 2.5 apg)
SF: Denzel Valentine (14.5 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 4.4 apg)
PF: Branden Dawson (12.0 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 1.8 apg)
C: Gavin Schilling (5.2 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 0.4 apg)

The selection committee insists they don't take storylines into account when they fill out the bracket, and maybe they don't - they certainly have plenty to worry about without looking for transfer players who might get the chance to play against their old team.  But the opening rounds for UVA have certainly not been lacking for interest.

UVA gets another shot at the team that bounced them from the Sweet Sixteen last year.  On paper, Michigan State isn't as good as they were last year.  In real life, MSU has a reputation as a tough out for a reason.  And just going by KenPom rankings, they're more a high 5-seed than a 7-seed.  They clamped down on Georgia in round 1; the Bulldogs only made one shot in three.  Your reward for a top-2 seed is to open the tourney against some scrappy little upstart that you can probably fry like an egg; the real tourney begins now.

-- UVA on offense

Despite the great work against UGA, in almost all of their losses, MSU topped the point-per-possession mark.  Their problem was occasionally letting bad teams score a bunch.  Minnesota, Nebraska, even Texas Southern early in the season; MSU usually doesn't have much trouble scoring, but their defense can occasionally buckle on them.  They generate good numbers, they just get a little inconsistent - a strange thing for a Tom Izzo team.

MSU is a little undersized.  Matt Costello and Gavin Schilling play as traditional centers, and rarely (if ever) appear on the court at the same time; both are 6'9", though, giving up a few inches to Mike Tobey.  That said, they're also heavy and solidly built, and can hold their ground just fine.  Other than the very lightly-used Colby Wollenman (who checks in at 6'7") nobody else on the MSU depth chart is over 6'6".  Branden Dawson is athletic and was a potential NBA draft entrant last year, but is only a 6'6" power forward.  So is his second-string, freshman Marvin Clark.  Finally, you've got 5'10", 170-pound shooting guard Lourawls Nairn, who'll draw 6'5" strong-as-an-ox Malcolm Brogdon, unless it's 6'0" Travis Trice instead.

So hopefully UVA will be able to put their size advantage to good use.  MSU is tough to score on when they're playing good fundamental ball; Izzo, though, has bemoaned his team's inconsistency all year, including after the Georgia game when he called his team "interesting."  MSU sometimes puts itself in foul trouble.  Costello and Schilling are strong, but not all that quick, and are prone to fouling players driving to the hoop.  They'll go for the block, and they get it pretty often, but they also sometimes miss and get a hack instead.  The guy to watch out for is Dawson; he's got some leaps and an ability to get those blocks without fouling.  He's a good answer to Justin Anderson in that regard.

Despite the inconsistency, you have to expect a grind.  MSU is also capable of excellent defensive performances; Indiana is one team that found that out, as did Georgia.  There are matchups where UVA will have the upper hand; failure to take advantage would be killer.

-- UVA on defense

The size advantage UVA has is different than what they had against Belmont, for one big reason: UVA was forced to go smallish against Belmont, because the whole team played outside the arc.  Mike Tobey only played five minutes.  MSU's bigs are never shooting threes (Marvin Clark being a possible exception, if you want to call him a big) and so Tobey and the rest of UVA's bigs can do what they're comfortable doing.

Clark will hoist them some, but there's really only three Spartans to care about from long range: Denzel Valentine, Travis Trice, and Bryn Forbes.  All of them will fire away and all of them can hit with regularity.  Limiting the three-bombing to the players that can actually hit them has helped make MSU a really efficient offensive team.

They're also really good inside the arc.  Costello and Schilling kind of look like galoots, but they're strong players and know how to establish a presence.  They do a lot of cleanup work, scoring on putbacks quite a bit.  Schilling usually starts, but it's Costello, often going against opponent's second strings, who does the best work in most facets of the game.

Dawson uses his athleticism very well in getting to the rim, and off the bench, Bryn Forbes is a very versatile scorer.  The most dangerous guy on the court, though, is Valentine.  Valentine has always played with a little bit of an attitude, sometimes not a productive one.  Now a junior, though, he's reined it in a bit and has a great deal more consistency in his game as a result.  Valentine can score from anywhere.  He prefers jump shots and doesn't go to the rim as much, but he's very comfortable shooting from wherever he is on the court.

The one big weakness of the Spartans: Foul shooting.  Valentine is outstanding from the stripe, and Forbes is dependable.  Trice, though, misses more than a guard should.  Lourawls Nairn is a lousy shooter, especially for a guard; Costello is OK for a big, but Dawson is horrendous and Schilling is worse.  This would be a great game to have really whistle-happy refs who call it as tight as possible; if it's a parade to the line, UVA's chances improve tremendously.

-- Outlook

UVA has the advantage here.  The Hoos play better defense and don't have an ugly, glaring weakness the way MSU does with the free throws.  That said, games like this have a way of defying the on-paper analysis. Both teams are comfortable in close games, and this one probably will be.  If there's one intangible on the side of UVA, it's this: Like Memphis last year, MSU won't have had much time to focus on scouting the pack-line defense, needing to worry about their first-round opponent a great deal more.  But I'll frankly be damn good and surprised if this game is a blowout ilke that Memphis one.

Since I did such a damn good job predicting the Belmont score, let's hope this one's just as accurate.

Final score: UVA 61, MSU 59

game preview: Belmont

Date/Time: Friday, March 20; 3:10

TV: truTV

Record against the Bruins: 1-0

Last meeting: UVA 94, Belmont 74; 12/28/99, Charlottesville

Last game: UNC 71, UVA 67 (3/13); Belmont 88, Murray St. 87 (3/7)

KenPom:

Tempo:
UVA: 58.2 (#349)
Belmont: 67.0 (#68)

Offense:
UVA: 112.2 (#25)
Belmont: 107.9 (#63)

Defense:
UVA: 85.5 (#1)
Belmont: 106.3 (#251)

Pythag:
UVA: .9580 (#4)
Belmont: .5407 (#146)

Projected lineups:

Virginia:

PG: London Perrantes (6.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 4.8 apg)
SG: Malcolm Brogdon (13.9 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 2.5 apg)
SF: Evan Nolte (3.2 ppg, 1.5 rpg, 0.6 apg)
PF: Darion Atkins (7.5 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 0.7 apg)
PF: Anthony Gill (11.5 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 0.8 apg)

Belmont:

PG: Reece Chamberlain (8.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 6.1 apg)
SG: Craig Bradshaw (18.1 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 3.2 apg)
SG: Taylor Barnette (10.7 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 1.3 apg)
PF: Amanze Egekeze (5.3 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 0.7 apg)
PF: Evan Bradds (14.3 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 1.3 apg)

Win or go home, you know the drill.  You no doubt also know a bit of the (very recent) history here: that it was former Hoo Taylor Barnette hitting the game-winning shot for Belmont that punched their dance ticket.  (This tourney is loaded with former Hoos.  Will Regan is still suiting up for Buffalo and Paul Jesperson is in with Northern Iowa.)

Memories of last year's first-round game are still fresh; UVA found itself down by as many as nine to 16-seed Coastal Carolina.  Belmont - a small school sitting in Vanderbilt's shadow in Nashville - is the kind of team that could make the Hoos nervous again ... but also the kind that could get completely rolled.

-- UVA on offense

Belmont's not the worst defensive team in the tournament - that honor belongs to Eastern Washington - but it's close.  Their efficiency of 106.3 places them outside the top 250 in the country.  Size has something to do with it, but the OVC isn't exactly loaded with seven-footers, either.  Belmont was even crummy within their own conference.

Belmont let most opponents shoot over 50% from inside the arc, especially if that opponent had a functioning big man.  UVA has three.  This is where the Hoos will have just an incredible, unfair advantage.  Belmont simply doesn't have big men.  Tyler Hadden is 6'10", 240 and Mack Mercer is 6'9", 220, and both play about six minutes a game.  Taking most of the big-man minutes are starters Amanze Egekeze and Evan Bradds; Bradds is 6'7", 205, and Egekeze is only an inch taller and ten pounds heavier.

Tobey, Gill, and Atkins are going to have a field day with this.  Belmont has the choice of using players who are barely OVC-caliber, or using guys who are small enough to get posted up by Evan Nolte.  The Hoos are going to want to feed the post all day long; if they find a hot hand, that guy might score 20.  This is to say nothing of the rebounding advantage UVA will have.

It's not only the bigs; our old friend Barnette, more power to him, but he's going to have to guard one of Brogdon, Nolte, or Anderson, and there's a reason he couldn't get on the court much while competing with them for playing time.  Not to single him out; it's more an illustration of the talent difference here.

Frankly, there's no reason UVA shouldn't be able to score a whole bunch.  The patient approach they have is going to break down this defense.  I'd expect a bunch of double-teams to make up for Belmont's lack of size, but with so many mismatches on the floor, it shouldn't matter.

-- UVA on defense

Here's what makes me nervous.  The huge size advantage UVA has is nullified in a way.  Belmont won't be able to drive much and they'll never be able to post up.  They might find some clever passing angles for an open bucket or two, but mainly, they'll be forced to shoot a lot of threes.  Which is exactly what they want to do.

That's how you beat the Hoos, of course.  Belmont attempted more threes than all but four teams in the country, and the thing about shooting is, an open three is an open three regardless of talent level or conference or whatever.  In other words, just because they're a 15 seed doesn't mean a 40% shooter is gonna be any worse against a 2 seed.

Craig Bradshaw leads the way, shooting 42%.  Barnette, of course, has a very green light, and Nick Smith, despite playing only 15 minutes a game, has the third-most attempts on the team.  But truthfully, just about anyone on the court is fair game to fire away.  Mack Mercer, who barely plays anyway, is the only player to be really complacent about.

I think we'll see the post double employed very little - partly because the ball just won't be in the post much, but partly because it doesn't make sense to leave three-point shooters temporarily open so you can double a guy that Anthony Gill could eat for lunch anyway.

With a ton of shooters all bombing away, it's too much to think they'll all go cold all at once.  Some of these are going to drop.  You just figure that the defenders need to be able to close out; fortunately, with no real post threat, there isn't much need to collapse too far in the first place.  Belmont is going to shoot like 20 threes regardless of what the defense does; if most of them are contested, UVA should be able to keep the Bruins at arms' length.

-- Outlook

Belmont has half the traditional formula for a big upset.  They shoot threes - lots of them, and well.  So often, though, the scrappy underdog also has a legit big man who seems like he's everywhere.  No doubt the Bruin bigs are going to scrap, but they're likely doomed to being dominated in all aspects of the game.  I think Belmont keeps it closer than we'd like, shooting well enough to not let the game get out of hand.  But they're not going to play enough defense, either.

Final score: UVA 79, Belmont 66

worst

Man, screw this weekend right in the pooper.

About the best you can say for it was that almost nobody got hurt.  Almost.  And that's of course limited to players who are still here.  Mike Scott broke his toe and Chris Taylor - who was well on his way to becoming the Opening Day starting shortstop for Seattle - broke his wrist.  That confirms it.  It wasn't just one of those weekends where stuff sometimes happens.  It was further proof that We Can't Have Nice Things because the fates are capricious dicks.

Arguably, basketball, lacrosse, and baseball are all now without their best players.  Oh, sure, Justin Anderson's technically on the court, but he scored zero points in two ACC tournament games, and I refuse to believe the taped-up splint on his finger had nothing to do with that.  (Sweet block against UNC, though.)  Joe McCarthy is still out for the baseball team and will be for a few more weeks.  James Pannell....ugh.

Both lacrosse and basketball, in their losses, let the game slip away early.  I'm not that impressed with either comeback, though the basketball one was better.  It came closer and forced UNC to shape up their game, which to their credit, they did.  Because, look, it'd be easy to say how much closer that game would've been, maybe even a UVA win, if Justin Jackson hadn't gone from reliable bricklayer to reliable point machine from long range.  You take your chances with a guy who's shooting like 26% from three.  But then, UNC looked like crap on offense for three-quarters of the game, and being behind by a lot was a function of looking even crappier.  At the end, it was certainly scary for the Heels, but then the old cliche about one team making plays reared its head.

I'm not ready to vindicate the lacrosse team based on their own mini-comeback, because that was only natural when one team decides it's desperate and the other is getting comfy.  There's a lot to complain about, but I think I'll focus on stick skills, which this team seems to lack.  Ground balls were a commonly-heard problem, but that's just an extension of the problem.  I haven't seen enough yet to know whether this is a chronic problem, but it sure as hell was an issue Saturday.  The Hoos could've jumped out to a lead if they'd connected cleanly on a few early passes - difficult plays, but we're used to seeing them work.  In one incident that stands out, Greg Coholan whiffed on a perfectly simple, uncontested pass in his direction, which sailed to the other end of the field and resulted in a Notre Dame goal 30 seconds later.

We're not even going to talk about baseball.  It brought Hokies out of the woodwork who couldn't name two players on their own team.

Finally, we come to the tournament draw.  Mark Titus, avowed fan of the whole concept of UVA basketball, thinks UVA got hosed.  I'm a UVA fan, which means, like all UVA fans, I think UVA exists in a constant state of hosed-ness that withdraws every so often, like a low tide that occasionally exposes neat seashells to collect.  (It's why we we have such a high opinion of Tony Bennett: he can command the tides.)  So naturally I agree with Titus.

It's pretty easy to come up with a few reasons why.  UVA had a better season than Duke.  UVA is the top two-seed, and therefore should play the weakest 1 seed, but instead gets the second-best 1 seed in Villanova.  And the first-weekend draw is unlucky: Belmont and Michigan State are both excellent three-point shooting teams, exactly the formula to knock off this defense.  Georgia doesn't count; Tom Izzo's teams don't lose in the first round.  Tom Izzo's teams are like zombies.  You can shoot them a thousand times and they won't die.  I haven't seen a single UVA fan on any board who doesn't automatically assume MSU won't beat Georgia.

On the other hand, the committee did do UVA a small favor by putting them in Charlotte.  The other decently close possibility was Pittsburgh, where there are no 2 seeds.  The Hoos should get a clear home-court advantage, unless they play Georgia.  And if we're allowed to look past the first weekend, Villanova and Oklahoma are the two least intimidating 1 and 3 seeds.  I'd happily switch spots with Villanova, sure, just for the sake of having the title of 1 seed, but I'll tell you right now I wouldn't switch with Wisconsin.  Hope the Badgers like playing Arizona out in LA.

Besides.  Belmont's frontcourt, if you can call it that considering none of them are bigger than Evan Nolte, is laughably ripe for abuse and MSU is much less on paper than they were last year.  This could just as conceivably go really well, as really badly.  And we get to play Friday, always my preferred day.

Anyway, the weekend wasn't a total loss: I did put together something fun.  One of my better efforts, but I can't take much credit because the subject matter was absolutely perfect.  And next weekend is one of the year's very best.

lacrosse bracketology

What better day than Selection Sunday to unveil the season's first edition of lax bracketology?  The season is close to half over, so it's a good time.

In review of last year's final edition, it went pretty well.  I've done better, but last year I got four of eight seeds exactly right and seven of eight seeded teams.  I'm more annoyed about missing on Harvard, which made the tournament as an at-large over my choice of Hofstra.  I had adjusted my system and based on that miss, I re-adjusted it back some for this year.  Perfection - nailing all 18 slots exactly - continues to be the elusive goal.

A couple reminders on method: first, autobids are given to the team that currently holds them, and tiebreakers are based on the Laxpower computer rankings.  What this means for now is that most conferences haven't started their conference schedules in earnest, and Laxpower is basically handing out the autobids in most cases.  That's OK - that computer is a pretty good 75% approximation of how things might shake out anyway.  I do try to predict the NCAA's arcane thoughts on travel, but less so early on since it's a little more important to show who stands where.

And as always, this is if the season ended today, not a prediction of the final bracket.

So, here's the official first look:

Initial thoughts:

-- Brown is starting out low here....but that could easily change later when they've had a crack at the rest of their conference.  Knocking off Harvard is a solid start.  Do not be surprised to see Brown turn into the class of the Ivy this year.

-- Along the same lines, I don't think Cornell will end up that high.  But for UVA's sake, let's hope they do.  Right now, that win over what happens to be the RPI's number 2 team is what's keeping UVA from going on the road, or for that matter, possibly in the tournament at all.

-- The Patriot League is fascinating.  Quint Kessenich wrote earlier this week that he could see anyone but Lafayette winning it.  I think I'd also drop Lehigh at this point, but yeah.  Best part is: it's probably a one-bid league.  It's full of teams that are pretty decent, but no better.  Holy Cross is a special enigma all their own.  Already nobody's undefeated in conference play, so right now, the only way I see two bids coming out of that league is if someone - it'd have to be one of the five one-loss teams, which rules out the team many think is the conference's best: Army - goes on a total rampage and then gets upended in the championship game.  More likely is that they'll just chew each other up, dogfight for one of the top four places so they can go to the conference tourney, and then whoever wins it, wins it.

-- A couple years ago, UMass caused a huge controversy by being undefeated and then being seeded sixth.  Many people were infuriated that they'd be seeded so low, which gave them a quality opponent (Colgate) who they promptly lost to.  They "did all they could" was the argument.  This missed the point, of course; UMass had played three teams out of fifteen with a winning record, none of whom actually made the tournament.  Personally I felt that the selection committee was right to want to see them be tested by a quality team rather than reward cushy-soft schedules; giving them the 1 or 2 seed would've suggested that the path to tourney success is to drop out of the ACC and join the SoCon.

The point in all this is that at first blush, Marquette looks like they might be shaping up to be this year's UMass.  They're 7-0 and taking the world by the proverbial storm.  They'll definitely be tested, though.  Denver, Notre Dame, and Duke all loom large at the end of the year.  If they're still undefeated by then, nobody's going to scoff at their schedule.

As always, here are next week's games to keep an eye on:

-- Bucknell at Brown: Normally you figure that an underdog - in this case, Bucknell, sitting on the wrong side of the bubble - can really help itself if it wins a game like this.  Semi-normally, you sometimes find that all it does is drag down the favorite and help the underdog not at all.  In this case, we're early enough in the season that I could easily see Bucknell dragging down the Bears temporarily, and then floating back up when  and if Brown does a number on the Ivy League.  More likely, Brown's powerful offense shoves Bucknell off of next week's bubble.

-- Colgate at Cornell: Colgate has mostly folded whenever faced with a good team, and beaten only horrible ones - but they did knock off Bucknell.  There's only the most outside chance of an upset here, but since I'm still casting a skeptical eye at Cornell, we'll leave this game here.

-- Harvard at North Carolina: Not much doubt in my mind that Harvard would appear in the bracket had they beaten Brown this week.  Here's a chance for redemption.

-- Georgetown at Loyola: I was honestly surprised to see Georgetown anywhere near the discussion, but there they are on the low end of the bubble.  It's not premature to call this an elimination game for both these teams.

-- Navy at Colgate: Pretty much every Patriot League game is worth a look.

-- Marquette at Georgetown: Marquette will lose darling status immediately if they lose this game.

-- Yale at Princeton: Frankly, I'm not sure the Ivy League can support four tournament teams.  We'll know more after this one for sure.

-- Bucknell at Boston U.: Patriot League again.

-- Ohio State at Notre Dame: Is OSU for real?  They've spent most of the season squeaking out wins against shitty teams (and losing to Detroit HA HA), then they go and beat Denver.

-- Virginia at Johns Hopkins: Right now the Hop is magically inflating the resumes of all the teams that beat them.  As the announcers during the UVA-ND game said, they picked a good year to join a conference.  They're running out of chances to steal an at-large; the Big Ten schedule isn't going to earn them one unless they can crack Maryland's stone-wall defense.  And frankly they run the risk of losing to an Ohio State or even a Michigan.  Point: they badly need this one, or else they'll just inflate the resume of one more team.

-- Maryland vs. North Carolina: The Twerps could use a signature win; they sort of balanced out beating Princeton by losing to Yale.  If they lose to UNC, they're probably still OK as far as getting into the tournament, but their schedule otherwise lacks any elite teams (since Hopkins doesn't count this year.)  That means a decent possibility they go on the road to start the tourney, and become someone's nightmare matchup - and as you can see, Charlottesville is a very possible destination.

-- Duke at Syracuse: Mainly just jockeying for seeding here.

game preview: North Carolina

Date/Time: Friday, March 13; 7:00

TV: ESPN

Record against the Heels: 52-128

Last meeting: UVA 75, UNC 64; 2/2/15, Chapel Hill

Last game: UVA 58, FSU 44 (3/12); UNC 70, UL 60 (3/12)

KenPom:

Tempo:
UVA: 57.9 (#349)
UNC: 69.7 (#15)

Offense:
UVA: 112.5 (#23)
UNC: 114.4 (#13)

Defense:
UVA: 84.8 (#1)
UNC: 94.0 (#31)

Pythag:
UVA: .9627 (#3)
UNC: .9055 (#13)

Projected lineups:

Virginia:

PG: London Perrantes (6.3 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 4.7 apg)
SG: Malcolm Brogdon (13.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 2.6 apg)
SF: Evan Nolte (2.9 ppg, 1.4 rpg, 0.7 apg)
PF: Darion Atkins (7.6 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 0.7 apg)
PF: Anthony Gill (11.6 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 0.9 apg)

North Carolina:

PG: Marcus Paige (13.7 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 4.6 apg)
SG: J.P. Tokoto (8.7 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 4.2 apg)
SF: Justin Jackson  (10.1 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 2.5 apg)
PF: Brice Johnson (12.8 ppg, 7.9 rpg, 0.8 apg)
C: Joel James (2.7 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 0.1 apg)

Can I just start off by pissing all over the refereeing in the FSU game?  Not that anyone needs it pointed out, it had both coaches fuming and the usually restrained Sean McDonough (whose announcing I tend to enjoy) was more than a little critical.  But still.  I was gonna say it was the usual, vintage Jamie Luckie, but it was absolute shit even by Luckie's low standards.

The ironic thing was that the call that sent Leonard Hamilton over the edge was not only 100% right, but damn well should've been looked at for flagrant potential.

Anyway.  A well-played game by UVA in spurts, and frankly would've felt a lot better if not for a streak of rimmed-out shots early in the second half.  Maybe it's good they didn't fall - gives the team a reason to refocus their efforts in a few places where they were rough around the edges.  North Carolina is another athletic team like FSU - not quite as big, but obviously with a great deal more scoring talent.

As of the moment I type this, Notre Dame has already raced out to a comfy lead against Miami, and there's no real reason they should lose it.  That makes the ACC's final four possibly every bit as good as the one that'll happen in Indy.  It's not going to be an easy road to a repeat, but if the Hoos do pull it off, they'll establish themselves as clearly the class of the ACC, and start to induce whispers about a changing of the guard.

-- UVA on offense

The promised injection of athleticism from Justin Anderson's return never really came to fruition.  True to his word, Tony Bennett only played him in short stints.  It's a tough balancing act, because you don't want to tire him out from running him for long stretches, but Anderson isn't a reserved player and could really use a long stretch or two.  He didn't score, and actually seemed tentative.

Malcolm Brogdon also had an off game, and the only thing that really stood out on the stat sheet was the nine assists from London Perrantes.  UVA found shots difficult to come by and had to generate them from a lot of off-the-ball motion.  UNC's defense, while active, won't be quite as up-in-the-grill as Florida State was.  FSU likes to play like that, but that was way aggressive even by their standards.

Still, the approach will be similar.  UNC is UNC, which means as always they'll try to out-athlete you and usually will win if you let them make it into a one-on-one contest.  UVA will want to use that against them, the way a karate master might use his opponent's weight and power against him.  UVA pulled away from UNC in the second half of their regular-season meeting partly because UNC got a bit desperate, starting trying to put on more pressure, and opened up shooting and passing lanes.

I've loved what I've seen out of Mike Tobey the past couple games - against Louisville, on one occasion he ripped an offensive rebound away from no less than Montrezl Harrell and stuffed it back in the hoop, and against FSU he got to the basket with great timing and continued to insist on owning nearby rebounds.  He'll be the tallest guy on the court on Friday, and has an opportunity to continue being a force down low if he contends with the bulk that Joel James and Kennedy Meeks carry around.

Despite UNC's quality KenPom numbers, good teams tend to score on them.  Sometimes bad teams score on them.  More often than not, teams reach a point per possession.  UVA should be able to do the same.

-- UVA on defense

Carolina wants to do two things: run around like crazy, and get the ball inside.  Whether that means scoring in transition, slashing at the basket, or feeding the post, UNC prefers to two-point you to death, even more so than FSU, who themselves were pretty heavily weighted toward the two.  UNC is second in the country in percentage of their points coming from two-point buckets, and 349th in the same for three-pointers.

Naturally, that's great for UVA, which typically only gets in real trouble when teams are bombing from three.  On UNC, only Marcus Paige and Nate Britt (and the latter plays only 16 minutes a game) shoot high volumes from three, and they're both respectable but not deadly.  (Justin Jackson will probably try a few as well, but he shoots .270 from there, so, fine, shoot all you like.)

Paige gets a lot of press, but there's a little bit of the volume scorer in him; he boosts his O-rating by being a great foul shooter and a solid distributor.  He's not an exceptional shooter.  The guy to actually be most worried about, I think, is Kennedy Meeks, a big ball of beef in the middle.  Meeks returned from an illness to play against Louisville, and though like Anderson he didn't start, he did give the Heels 19 solid minutes.  Paige gets all the attention, but Meeks does a ton of dirty work that's been absolutely critical to UNC's success.

UVA's rebounding chops - 5th-best defensive rebounders in the country - will be put to the test by UNC, which thanks mainly to Meeks and Brice Johnson, rebounds over 40% of their misses.  They're 6th in the nation.  Meeks and Johnson get stickbacks like you wouldn't believe.  The fact that UNC's offense tends to feature Paige and J.P. Tokoto driving at the rim, missing, and having Meeks and Johnson try to clean up, that tends to help push Carolina's tempo as high as it is; it's a juicy transition attempt if they can't finish.

The fact that UNC is built a lot like FSU is another good sign for UVA.  Never discount the talent they bring to the table, but they've shown this year they're by no means unstoppable, and UVA has the formula to do it, again by nullifying strength with strength.

-- Outlook

I've been pointing out the similarities between FSU and UNC, and there are many.  UNC is in many ways a better version of the Seminoles.  But they have plenty of differences, too, especially this: whereas FSU wants to roil the waters and play rough a bit, UNC wants to run and play an artistic version of the game.  FSU is a muddy Jeep Wrangler; UNC is a slick Jaguar.  The Wrangler is still one of the best mudders around, but easily the most unrefined vehicle anywhere on the road.  The Jaguar is shiny, gorgeous to look at, smooth, and sometimes absurdly unreliable and crazy expensive to fix.

UVA's approach should work against either, though.  UVA always gets their stops.  The only exception has been Duke and their unreal barrage of threes, which UNC is uniquely ill-equipped to replicate.  If you let UVA score with any regularity, you're almost always screwed.

All bets are off, of course, if Jamie Luckie referees the game, and especially if he brings back his Dungeons and Dragons dice to randomly determine how many steps equals a travel.

Final score: UVA 79, UNC 71

game preview: Florida State

Date/Time: Thursday, March 12; 12:00

TV: ESPN

Record against the Noles: 22-22

Last meeting: UVA 51, FSU 41; 2/22

Last game: UL 59, UVA 57 (3/7); FSU 76, Clem. 73 (3/11)

KenPom:

Tempo:
UVA: 58.0 (#349)
FSU: 66.5 (#90)

Offense:
UVA: 112.9 (#22)
FSU: 102.8 (#154)

Defense:
UVA: 85.2 (#2)
FSU: 97.7 (#83)

Pythag:
UVA: .9622 (#3)
FSU: .6446 (#102)

Projected lineups:

Virginia:

PG: London Perrantes (6.3 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 4.7 apg)
SG: Malcolm Brogdon (13.7 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 2.6 apg)
SF: Evan Nolte (2.9 ppg, 1.4 rpg, 0.7 apg)
PF: Darion Atkins (7.6 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 0.7 apg)
PF: Anthony Gill (11.6 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 0.9 apg)

Florida State:

PG: Xavier Rathan-Mayes (14.4 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 4.4 apg)
SG: Devin Bookert (10.3 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 2.7 apg)
SG: Montay Brandon (11.9 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1.9 apg)
PF: Phil Cofer (6.8 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 0.2 apg)
C: Kiel Turpin (5.1 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 0.1 apg)

Everything matters now, therefore game previews.  And if I told you about:

-- a 16-2 UVA team
-- that won the ACC regular season against Syracuse
-- by running away with the game in the second half
-- then lost its finale on the road on a big senior night for the opponent
-- and faced Florida State in the opening round of the ACC tourney

you still wouldn't know whether I was talking about 2014 or 2015.  Yup, it's shaping up a lot like it did last year.  UVA opens with nine-seed Florida State, who survived a near-choke against Clemson in their opener after leading most of the game.  The lone contest against FSU this year was a close one, in which FSU's terrific freshman Xavier Rathan-Mayes made some tough shots, but also in which FSU scored four points in the final ten minutes.  The winner gets the Louisville-UNC winner - so a UVA win here would set up some interesting storylines.

-- UVA on offense

FSU has a pretty deep frontcourt, but it might be short a man after a strange play in the Clemson game: forward Phil Cofer, running the baseline to try and inbound the ball, slipped, lost the handle, and watched from his butt as a Clemson player picked it up and scored an easy layup.  Cofer hobbled off the court, having twisted his knee.  FSU has three seven-footers, and one is always on the court, but they're not known to ever play two of them at once, and Cofer is one of only two true power forwards on the roster.  The other, Jarquez Smith, is not the rebounder Cofer is, but is a better shot blocker.

On the good guys' sideline, it's the opposite story as Justin Anderson might finally be ready to return from a broken finger and surprise appendectomy.  I'm not sure he'd immediately jump right back into the starting lineup, but whether he does or whether he comes off the bench, the impact would be obvious.

FSU's calling card this year (as in many years) is size and length.  The smallest regular player (outside of the very lightly used Dayshawn Watkins) is 6'3" Devin Bookert.  They're athletic, tough shot-blockers, and frankly, Leonard Hamilton's teams usually make things difficult on opponents trying to score.  They don't gamble much because they don't need to.  The one puzzling thing is that despite their size and always having a seven-footer on the floor, they don't rebound well on defense.  Anthony Gill pulled down four offensive boards during the last game.

You'll recall, of course, that not only did the Hoos lack the presence of Justin Anderson, they also lost London Perrantes during this game.  For a short time there, Malcolm Brogdon was out, too.  Having all three for the duration of the game should help the offense, which produced one of its worst games of the season trying to solve the FSU defense.  The more ominous sign for FSU might be this, though: in three of four ACC rematches, the UVA offense improved over the previous showing - sometimes explosively, as Wake and VT would attest to.  The only exception was NC State, which was the first game UVA played without Anderson.  Expect Tony Bennett's scouting to pay off again.

-- UVA on defense

For all that athleticism and length, FSU has a few major weaknesses on offense.  They can't shoot and they turn the ball over a ton.  Nobody in particular is a huge turnover machine, they just all lose it with some consistency.  And despite Rathan-Mayes's 30-point outburst against Clemson, he's an under-.300 three-point shooter.

FSU doesn't shoot a lot of threes anyway, though, which is smart given the makeup of their team.  They'd rather go inside, and they shoot over 50% from two.  Montay Brandon is a very effective scorer inside the arc, and Rathan-Mayes's efficiency skyrockets when he goes inside as well.

Their big strength is their inside play - and not coincidentally, getting to the free-throw line (8th in the country in ratio of FT to FG) - so the fact that UVA is one of the elite teams in the country at interior defense (opponents shoot 39% inside the arc) is naturally encouraging.  (And goes a long way toward explaining why the last game was such a rugged affair.)

Much will be made, no doubt, of Rathan-Mayes's big game, and the analysts will probably say that stopping him is the key to winning.  UVA, though, will be happy to bet he can't shoot 5-for-9 from three again.  Keeping him out of the lane is more important, and of course, exactly what UVA's defense is geared to do.  Actually, for my money, it's the defensive rebounding that matters most.  FSU can hurt you with second-chance points.  The Hoos did a fantastic job on the defensive glass last time out, so, again, UVA is geared to stop the Noles.

-- Outlook

Last game was a rock fight and a half.  It wasn't pretty, but it was fun to watch regardless.  In an elimination game, there's no reason to expect any different.  I don't think it'll be an easy time scoring the ball for anyone.  UVA will get a much-needed shot of athleticism if Justin Anderson returns, which should help open up the offensive end.

It'll most likely be a pitchers' duel, though; bet on the team that sends Randy Johnson to the hill every damn night.

Final score: UVA 59, FSU 47

senior moments

I kind of wish the lacrosse game had been after the basketball game.  (Yes, I mean Syracuse - and yeah, I kinda like this deal where we get both of those games on the same weekend.)  I might've stuck around for the second half.  I guess the lax crew looked a lot better after halftime.  I wouldn't know, having had my fill after two quarters of only winning faceoffs if the ball first found its way to one corner of the field.

I don't need to learn that lesson for basketball, because Tony always figures it out.  I suppose one day maybe he won't, but, I mean, if you've been paying attention you know how he preaches, and even the worst fifteen minutes of offense in anyone's recollection isn't insurmountable if the defense is still defensing.

For all the criticism announcers take, sometimes they hit the target, and the crew on Monday night did just that when they said all it took to fix the putrid offense was an attitude adjustment.  Might be that Evan Nolte's three-pointer kicked off the run, but what made it a run was the decision by the ballhandlers to attack the zone.  It's amazing how things just fell into place after that.

And through it all, the defense.  The offense swung as violently between extremes as any team's offense ever did this season, and the defense was the defense, which makes it sort of fitting the Hoos wrapped up the regular-season title that way, because it was Tony's preaching brought to life in lurid fashion.

Myron Medcalf can keep on being snide.  (And he does, believe me.)  Anyone who isn't entertained by this team has no business watching college basketball.  Three games in a week, all of them vastly different from one another yet all of them with unmistakeable Tony Bennett fingerprints.  Tony just engineered two of the three double-ups in ACC history, in one season.  If the Hoos win in Louisville, Tony will be, as far as anyone can tell, the only ACC coach, probably the only coach in any conference, to improve his win total six years in a row.  These are mind-boggling feats of strength.  Are you not entertained?

**************************************

-- I found myself caught in the trap that most writers fall into, to wit: pre-forming a narrative and hoping the facts turn out to fit it.  In this case I was planning on writing about how last week was revenge on a pair of teams that woke the dragon by daring to play the two closest games we've seen all season.  Wake certainly obliged.  VT basically did, too, but undermined the narrative by getting three of the stupid-luckiest rolls on three-pointers I've ever seen.  Tech did make the first half close, but try landing a shot like they did, just so, on the back of the iron.  Take away blind luck and the VT game is a plain-Jane blowout.

-- I'm almost always a huge fuddy-duddy about showboating and punking your opponents - I thought, for example, that Kevin Stallings of Vanderbilt was 99% in the right in berating his player for clapping in someone's face.  (The only quibble is that I do think there's wisdom in the maxim "praise in public, criticize in private.")  But I also know the difference between having fun and being a dick, which is why I don't mind one bit that Darion Atkins got T'ed up.  Except that maybe that would've been a solid time to swallow the whistle and not call an I'm-in-charge-here foul.

-- Jim Boeheim's not a bad guy, as coaches go.  But Rob Vozenilek and Maleek Frazier checked in at the scorers' table to finish out the VT game.  One game later, the TV cameras panned to Syracuse's Carter Sanderson sitting at the end of the bench in the final seconds of a blowout while the announcers set up the replay of his portion of the senior day festivities.  That's the Tony Bennett Difference.

-- An appendectomy???  What's next for Justin Anderson, Lyme disease?  Sheesh.

-- Interesting bit of news on the football side, where UVA will bolster the tight end depth chart with former QB Brendan Marshall.  Makes sense, since he was being rapidly buried in the QB hierarchy and tight end is completely lacking in experience and depth.  It's still lacking in experience, but the more pieces you throw at the wall, the more likely one will stick.

bloody brilliant

The best basketball in the world isn't played in the NBA Finals, or the Olympics, or twenty minutes before One Shining Moment.  It's low-major conference championships.  Think MAAC, NEC, Atlantic Sun.  It's played in college gyms that are actually gyms and not a lot bigger than high school ones, and by players whose professional basketball future is in, like, Belgium, at best.  It's not nearly as skilled as what you see on the red carpets in Lexington or Chapel Hill or Lawrence.  It can be a brickfest.  It might be a foulfest.  But nobody, anywhere, plays harder than a guy in his senior year shooting for his one and only NCAA tournament bid.  Something about the difference between getting to play on the biggest stage and be kings for a week with the chance, however miniscule, to be the toast of the world for slaying Goliath..... and walking off the court and leaving your basketball career behind forever.  It really motivates.  Fans scream their asses off, coaches coach their asses off, and best of all, players really, really play their asses off.

There was a little bit of that going on Sunday night.  No, it's not quite the same in a basketball palace like the JPJ, during the regular season, when the reward is just another step toward the not-entirely-necessary honor of a #1 seed in the conference tourney.  But still.

But still, indeed.  Maybe it says something about this team that they're digging that deep even without that much on the line.  I mentioned a line from an ESPN column about a month ago that said this is a team that likes its games to be rock fights.  I (still) don't care what Myron Medcalf says, it's impressive and it's damn good entertainment to see some of the team looking like they were in a literal rock fight and the rest of them decide it's not going to stop them.

These Florida State games have all been kinda like that, come to think of it.  It's the second year in a row that a UVA guard has gotten concussed in the middle of one.**  Leonard Hamilton's teams rarely seem to let you off easy.  I know there's hand-wringing over the offense, and it's not all unjustified, but most of our games against FSU end up with both teams at less than a point-per-possession.  FSU makes you earn it.  And they're bigger and longer than the Hoos, which makes the performance in the paint that much more impressive.

**The school's evening press release said Perrantes suffered a mild concussion.  I'm thinking it's either really mild considering they let a concussed guy back out on the bench in uniform in front of bright lights and a raucous crowd.... or else that's a really bad idea.  Or both.

-- Evan Nolte is suffering from Sammy Zeglinski Syndrome, which means he can't shoot a lick right now and that means the fans are in his grill for being useless.  All I know is he's the guy Tony Bennett has chosen to start the game in Justin Anderson's stead, and he's the guy getting the crunch time minutes.  Which means he's doing something right.

-- Perrantes is important - huge, even - for the long term, but he actually wasn't having much of an impact last night.  I'll quantify exactly what his loss meant: three points, which is the bucket that FSU scored when Perrantes's man found himself wide open as a result of his defender laying on the deck with blood gushing out of a brand-new orifice.  UVA wasn't getting squat from the perimeter all day anyway, and losing their point guard made the offense less about open shots and screens and passes and coachy stuff and more about forcing the ball to the bigs and just letting them do posty stuff.

-- We're not the only ones staring down the barrel of the attrition gun, after Chris Jones's dismissal from Louisville for threatening his girlfriend.  It's likely to be a big problem for the Cards.  Almost all their scoring - 80% of it - came from a big four of Jones, Wayne Blackshear, Montrezl Harrell, and Terry Rozier.  Jones was 3rd of 4 in that group, and the starting point guard.  Their first game without him (besides his original suspension) was last night in Atlanta, and Louisville barely squeezed past GT.  They're almost dead-certain to be the loser in the five-team derby for four double-byes, and could even find themselves leapfrogged by a few teams like Pitt and NC State, who are two losses back but have way easier schedules.

-- Rutgers is a pretty bad lacrosse team, so beating them by nine goals is nice but nothing to get over-hyped about, even with a very nice performance by Matt Barrett in net.  We'll see how the ACC schedule goes.  But they do have a very good faceoff man in Joe Nardella, who won 63% of his faceoffs last year and only 9 of 19 against the Hoos.  I'm duly impressed.  And it was Jason Murphy, who had a lousy season opener, who did most of the best work, winning 8 of 11.  Chalk up to fortunate clash of styles, or genuine optimism for the future?  Well, Syracuse is next, with Ben Williams winning 47 of 67 so far this year.  We'll find out.

casual fans HATE him

Learn How This One Weird Trick, Invented By A Dad, Ruined College Basketball Forever!!

Myron Medcalf apparently never learned not to poke a bees' nest.  Mark Titus had it right about UVA fans, even if "emotionally fragile" isn't quite the turn of phrase I'd've used.  UVA is a school with just enough success to make its fans think it should have a hell of a lot more, and greatly fear losing what we have.  We react, I think, more favorably than most fanbases to favorable opinions, and launch more heat-seeking missiles than most fanbases at those perceived to be haterz, whether or not the haterism was the result of malice or negligence.  I don't even remember which ESPN writer it was, but when he left Mike Scott off his Wooden Award list, he felt the Twitter wrath so strongly that he felt compelled to jokingly warn another writer (who made the same mistake) that the Mongol hordes would soon descend.

I enjoy this reputation, to be honest.  It speaks to a passionate fanbase - one which is absolutely overjoyed to have something worth being passionate about, and sometimes aims that passion in interesting directions.  So when guys like Myron Medcalf write articles entitled, "Is UVA's style bad for the game?" (and make no mistake, he wasn't actually asking) it's like chumming for sharks.

I don't know which fallacy to start with in Medcalf's article, so I think I'll start by pointing out that it wasn't just UVA fans blowing up the joint.  David Teel let him have it, albeit without actually mentioning him by name.  It was worth every word.  Kentucky fans did too.  The comment section is loaded with people from non-UVA schools saying how stupid this is.  My favorite was from a guy Facebook-identifying with Boston University who bought tickets to UVA at Boston College because he wanted to see UVA's defense in action.  Keep in mind: BU and BC is to hockey what UNC and Duke is to basketball.  This is sort of like if you, the Virginia fan living in DC, actually paid money to the University of Maryland just because you wanted to see Tom Izzo.  This is the "casual fan" that Medcalf thinks hates UVA.

Medcalf wrote his column after, and cited, the Pitt game, which ended 61-49.  A slow-paced score.  BOOORRRINNNG.  UVA is about seven possessions a game short of the national median for tempo; we average 58 possessions a game, while the median is 65.  Seven more possessions means that game would've finished, oh, about 68-55.  WOW SO EXCITING!!!

Let's leave aside the fact that Medcalf essentially said that sound defense and good fundamentals are bad for the game.  Even on his terms, the fact is, UVA's system is good for the game, not bad.  Inarguably, indisputably so.  What Tony Bennett is doing is a boon for the sport - and for the so-called casual fan.

-- It keeps the variety in the game.  Listen, the Venn diagram of college basketball fans and NBA fans has a smaller intersection than you think.  NBA fans go in for the soap operas and the transcendent athletes.  College fans appreciate the variety of styles.  If there are differing styles between NBA teams, they're lost on all but the most serious students of the game - and most of those students are studying college ball instead.  One reason Kentucky fans think the Medcalf piece was dumb is because they'd love to get a piece of UVA.  Really.  And for much the same reason as we would love to play them.  That particular clash of styles is an irresistable attraction.  Both fanbases want to win this year's championship, but both fanbases would love, along the way, to prove their team's style is superior as well.

-- It keeps games closer, and closer games are shockingly more interesting to the "casual fan."  Actually, I think this is a bit overblown, but announcers harp on it every time a team hangs close with UVA.  Fewer possessions, less opportunity to break open the game, and so on.  There's a kernel of truth to it, but there's also this: if the so-called casual fan keeps hearing these announcers blather about it, he's likely to think, "this might be a good chance to see an upset."

-- It occasionally produces circus-freak scores.  Like 76-27 or 45-26.  That certainly draws attention, yes?   It is possible to say with a straight face that this team might one day finish a first half with a goose egg on the other team's scoreboard.  I find it hard to believe that wouldn't interest anyone.

-- Finally - and this is absolutely the crux of the argument right here - that "casual fan" that Medcalf thinks dominates the game's fanbase?  The one that "cares about entertainment," where "entertainment" means running and scoring?  You know the type.

It's a unicorn.  It doesn't exist.  Medcalf wrote a whole article about his own imagination.

There is such a thing as the "casual fan," yes.  That person is a fan of a team, not a sport.  (Or they're a fan of an event, specifically the NCAA tournament.)  Medcalf thinks Joe Schmo, the "gamblers, bus drivers, CEOs, and salesmen" in his article, will be sitting in their living rooms going, "hmm, I wonder who's playing college basketball tonight" in much the same way they peruse Netflix for a movie to pass the time.  They don't.  People who are fans of college basketball have a team and they watch that team.  The more casual they are, the less likely they are to watch or care about Random Monday Night Game, not more.  Duh!  (And, obviously, the more casual they are, the less likely they are to notice the difference between Game A and Game B where Game A has eight more possessions than Game B.  As well, the more casual they are, the less likely they are to know which team plays what style of ball.  Duh, again.)  It's the serious fans - you know, the ones that like college basketball pretty much the way it is, that watch random games for entertainment.

The real casual fans, not the ones that exist in Myron Medcalf's head, are interested in seeing their team do well.  That team is not likely to be Kentucky or Duke or Kansas.  There are 351 teams in the country, of which maybe eight are considered royalty of the game.  Chances are extremely good that their team isn't one of them.  Tony Bennett gives them hope.  Because Tony Bennett is proving you can be elite without recruiting Burger Boys, as long as you have a system.  If college ball encourages running and hyper-scoring, it means the only way to succeed is with elite athletes, and the only schools that can recruit elite athletes are the royalty.  Fans of UVA and Wisconsin and Baylor and Utah and Wichita State and Iowa State (and so on and so forth) want to know their team has a shot at hanging a banner.  If college ball listens to the Myron Medcalfs of the world, and NBA-ifies the game, the Final Four will be four of the same eight teams, every year.

Nobody wants that.  Any drooling idiot can see that the thing that makes the NCAA tournament interesting to the "casual fan" (the one from above that's a fan of the event) is Cinderella.  Hell, Cinderella is probably one of the major forces that has helped keep the NCAA together.**  That's the one thing the "casual fan" likes above everything else.

One could go the cynical route and suggest that Medcalf is fronting for his employer, an employer which holds a vested interest in TV ratings.  ESPN isn't a neutral observer; they want games to be as interesting as possible.  Maybe Medcalf is just mouthpiecing the results of some focus group that got latched onto by the C-suite at Disney.  I say, never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.  Hanlon's razor.  Medcalf wrote something dumb because it'd been percolating in his head for a while now, and he's surrounded by groupthink in his media bubble.  As we've seen, actual college basketball fanhood reacted to it as they should've.

**The Power 5 conferences might have made a stronger move to break away, if the NCAA tournament weren't such a money machine, and it's a money machine because Lehigh over Duke.

electricity shortage

Three games down without our Wooden candidate, three wins.  Not real pretty wins.  Kind of scrappy ones against teams probably not going to the tournament.  But, wins.

I'd say it's still unanswered, to what extent this team misses Justin Anderson.  There's no doubt they need him back.  But would those games still have been close and scruffy without him?  Anderson's absence isn't the reason the three-point shooters missed a whole bunch of open looks.  In the NC State and Wake games, they went 4-for-23, which is 17%.  It's not like they missed because Anderson wasn't on the floor, and it's small coincidence that the Pitt game had a more comfortable margin of victory and the Hoos shot 5-for-13, which is a very acceptable 38.5%.

On the other hand, would Anderson have had a better chance of hitting?  Or would the shot have been a more makeable one, a layup perhaps, if Anderson was in the game?  That'll never be answered.

The two Louisville games are exactly four weeks apart, so if Simba's a really fast healer, he'll be back for the second one.  Maybe it's the nagging paranoid in me, because that part of you never really goes away if you root for UVA, but the rest of the schedule seems booby-trapped.  FSU is actually the least of our concerns, I think.  Wake will get us at their place and no doubt they'll be awfully confident, seein's how they just almost beat us at ours.  VT is gonna be primed as well, though fortunately that's at home.  Syracuse is no easy place to win at.  And it was after Anderson went down that Louisville mounted a comeback; that one's a return road visit too.

At stake, besides tournament seeding and the chance to add a regular season title to the rafters, is avoiding bracketologist talk about whether UVA can be as legit as ever without Anderson.  The committee does take injuries into account, both positively and negatively.  If a guy misses time and then comes back, your losses during that time get a kinder eye.  If a guy won't be ready for the tournament, they penalize you.  Optimistically, I think Anderson will be back for the NCAAs, but you never know.  But if the winning streak continues, sans the team's most electric player, you can't ask for a better setup.

**************************************************

-- With about 47 seconds left, NC State fouled Brogdon; this was the very best of all possible outcomes.  Coaches aren't big on quick shots to try and get two-for-one on possessions at the end of a half (though this is a strategy mainly for the end of the first half; the second is too wild-cardy) so UVA was going to hold the ball as long as possible.  One likely outcome of that strategy is to not score and give NC State the chance to tie with a minimum of 12 seconds to work with.  Instead, UVA's best free-throw shooter got to head to the line with a chance to put UVA up two scores, and the Hoos were guaranteed another possession.

-- The announcers had this fixation on "free throw percentage in conference play."  I guess that's useful as a proxy for how you're shooting lately, but it's otherwise utterly nonsensical - it's not like you need to adjust free-throw shooting percentages for the quality of opponent.

-- How about Evan Nolte's drive and dish to Gill?  As with the Anderson miss against Duke, it felt like a game-turning play.  I think it's because Nolte is usually a bit less than assertive on offense, and is the player on the team who least resembles a smooth rim-driving point guard (and yes that includes Mike Tobey) so the sight of his bad-Hawaiian-shirt-wearing self making like Isiah Thomas was jarring enough to turn the game on its head.  And as it turned out, that was the last lead change of the game.

-- Center-court logos are trending in the obnoxiously huge direction, and never more so at NC State.  I know it's a classic old logo and all, but it is in fact the ugliest friggin' court in the whole country.  And since the whole midcourt line is almost completely obscured, it ought to be banned.

-- In case you've forgotten why everyone thinks Carolina media is the most shameless, shilling, and biased bunch of wretches in the whole country, enjoy this small passage from Stephen Schramm from the Fayetteville Observer:

The replays showed that Nolte had collided with N.C. State’s Caleb Martin. Much to Wolfpack coach Mark Gottfried’s dismay, the crew decided to call a flagrant foul on Martin.

Yeah, totally out of nowhere, I'm sure.  Much to Stephen Schramm's dismay, the cops decide he's at fault when a tree collides with his car.  The definition of a flagrant foul is "excessive and/or unnecessary contact" and plowing Nolte clearly qualifies.

-- Shifting gears to the Wake game: Last week I wrote about rewarding the big guy making the hustle play, and this week it happened again: Darion Atkins brick-walled a Wake defender trying to keep up with London Perrantes, and was rewarded by Perrantes with an easy layup.  The announcers did a nice job of pointing out the communication between Atkins and Perrantes on that play.

-- It's interesting that Tony didn't make an adjustment - or didn't appear to, anyway, though you never know what you miss - as Schnozz Mitoglou kept pounding away from the three-point line off of a simple pick-and-pop.  I think it's a philosophy thing - a gamble that a freshman on the road is less likely to keep making those than the ballhandler is to punish you for getting away from your hard hedge.

-- Malcolm's dunk.  MALCOLM'S.  DUNK.

-- As badly as Pitt and Wake shot free throws, I can't help but wonder if the students haven't figured out a distraction routine that actually works.

-- Much like with the Notre Dame game last year, the Hoos did a nice job of finding a tendency in the Pitt zone and attacking the bejeezus out of it.  And on one play, a different attack, but a really, really nice job by Isaiah Wilkins to set up an open shot.  Whether on purpose or just playing through the flow of the game, I don't know, but Wilkins did a great job of holding the ball just long enough to suck in the defense and then kick it back to the point, where Perrantes wasted no time finding the open shooter.  Pity Nolte missed the shot, but it was picture-perfect passing.

-- Does anyone else besides me think that Infiniti commercial is incredibly stupid?  Do people routinely make a habit of just blithely backing out the driveway and missing the BIG FKIN' YELLOW SCHOOL BUS rumbling down the road?  Are school buses difficult to see?  Is it hard to see a car coming down the totally empty parking lot lane?  The look on school bus lady's face is priceless: "Oh wow, if it hadn't been for those genius engineers at Infiniti, I would've gotten my two children messily killed in a school bus accident!"  Don't worry, honey: with observation skills like those, Junior and Juniorette will have their own permanent 6 x 3 plot any day now.

Probably like 1/3 of commercials on TV say the same thing: "Our customers are idiots.  If you're an idiot, you can be one of our customers too."

-- With the win over Pitt, UVA mathematically clinches a single bye in the ACC tournament, more than three weeks before it starts.

-- Yes, I read Myron Medcalf's moronic scribblings, and there's enough to say about that that it's worth a post all its own.  Wednesday night.