postseason update

In case you were wondering (I was) this is what it looks like:

And it is coming to a University of Virginia near you.  It might not be the most historic of trophies or trophy games, but it does actually have a neat back story.  Arizona and ASU claim their Territorial Cup is the oldest trophy in college football (the object itself, not the game in playing for the object), but they only started making the Territorial Cup a thing in 2001, and this pitcher is actually far, far older than their silly western cup.

Every single player yesterday can give themselves a big fat pat on the back.  Kevin Parks for breaking the freshman TD record at UVA.  Kris Burd for moving into 2nd place on UVA's all-time receptions list.  Drequan Hoskey(!) for a huge, huge end zone pass breakup on FSU's last series.  Bill Schautz for exploding around the edge and forcing an E.J. Manuel fumble and for a terrific pass breakup on his final play of the season.  (Haven't felt worse about an injury in a long time.)  Mike Rocco for standing in the pocket like a professional and delivering two picture-perfect touchdown drives.  Perry Jones for a terrific touchdown catch.  Everybody.

Chase Minnifield, however, gets the game ball.  For hauling ass downfield, tackling Bert Reed at the 1, and setting up the defense to hold FSU to a field goal.  Saving those four points out-and-out won the game, and I don't want to hear anything about how people might've made different decisions being down by 10 instead of 6 and so on and etc.  Not for a play like that.

But the title promises postseason talk.  The postseason - after losing to NC State about four eons ago, that felt just as it had for the past three long seasons: nothing most than a ghost story.  You best start believing in ghost stories, Miss Turner.  You're in one.  Next Saturday is the division championship game.  It's Hoos and Hokies for the season.  Bowl games?  It's the postseason right now.

But let's take a cursory look at the bowls anyway, just because that's what we do.  And this week, we're looking at all the bowls.  Time to start thinking with a winner's mentality.  Everything's on the table.  And just to switch things up, we'll start at the bottom.

-- Independence Bowl (Shreveport)

Matchup: MWC #3
Potential opponents: Wyoming, San Diego State

Thanks to Miami removing themselves from consideration, the Military Bowl is officially out of the running for UVA.  Miami is self-banned and UNC can't catch up in the rankings, so only six teams can be selected ahead of the Hoos.  So the Independence Bowl, picking 7th, is the worst-case scenario.

And I continue to maintain that no sane bowl official will choose Wake Forest over UVA, or really, any other ACC team, if they don't have to.  Ending up here would also mean NC State got picked in front too, which I don't think will happen. Technically we could end up in Shreveport, though I'd rather not, and be playing probably Wyoming, or maybe SDSU if the bowl officials want a bigger-market team.

-- Music City Bowl (Nashville)

Matchup: SEC #7/#8
Potential opponents: Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Mississippi State, at-large

Again, with that FSU pelt on the wall, I no longer think UVA drops this far.  Again again, though, possible.  All of those possible opponents, however, need to win one more.  All of them can do it - their last opponents, respectively, are Wake Forest, Kentucky, and Ole Miss.  However, right now, the SEC only has seven bowl-eligible teams, and you can bet on two of them going to the BCS, leaving five.  It may be that the Music City Bowl has to go hunting for an at-large team from like the MAC or something.  In that case we definitely do not want to fall here.

-- The former Tire Bowl (Charlotte)

Matchup: Big East #3
Potential opponents: The whole conference minus a few from the bottom

Lose to Virginia Tech, and this looks like a very likely landing spot.  You'd see one of Clemson or VT in the Orange, the other in the ex-Peach, FSU in the CS Bowl despite us beating them (I mean, they're right next door) and then....well, maybe the Sun Bowl picks us, and if they don't, these folks probably won't hesitate to snap up a next-door neighbor.

I have no idea who the opponent might be.  Louisville and Rutgers currently sit atop the Big East, which makes all the sense of a penguin in the Sahara eating a peanut butter sandwich.  That conference is absurd.

-- Sun Bowl (El Paso)

Matchup: Pac-12 #4
Potential opponents: Washington, Arizona State, UCLA, Utah, California

Both Washington and ASU completely biffed yesterday, opening up quite a few possibilities.  I do think it's most likely that the Sun Bowl takes Arizona State due to proximity, as long as Pac-12 rules allow it and also as long as they win their last game.

Beating Tech would guarantee UVA falls no lower than this bowl per ACC selection rules.  It's possible we may have already earned our way here anyway; it may depend on how bowl officials see us stacking up cash-flow-wise against Georgia Tech.

-- CS Bowl (Orlando)

Matchup: Big East #2
Potential opponents: Notre Dame or Big East mishmash

But there's no good reason to take the Big East mishmash when you can have a solid Notre Dame team.  Hmm, Cincinnati or Notre Dame, Cincinnati or Notre Dame.  Tough call.  Notre Dame, for obvious reasons, falls under the Big East umbrella for bowl tie-ins, and is almost certain to be invited to this bowl.  For equally obvious reasons, Florida State is likely to be their opponent.  We can beat the Seminoles all we want but we can't beat them so hard their fanbase moves to Idaho.  Only way FSU doesn't go here is if they go to Atlanta instead.

-- The former Peach Bowl (Atlanta)

Matchup: SEC #5
Potential opponents: Auburn, Florida

The folks in Atlanta have their eye on UVA.  But - there are obstacles.  We're not going if we lose to Tech, of course.  If we do, the Peach Bowl will simply grab the ACCCG loser between Tech and Clemson.  That much is obvious.  If we win, and then lose the ACCCG, then what?  The Peach's options would be 10-2 VT, 9-4 UVA, or 8-4 FSU.  (Probably they wouldn't take them at 7-5 in the event of a loss to Florida.)  And honestly, I have no idea how that decision would go, but VT and FSU both have a lot more name recognition right now than we do.  So.

As for the opponent, think Auburn.  I doubt Florida will beat FSU, and if they do they'd be a viable option, but the bowl folks state they won't take a 6-6 Florida.  Win-loss record does matter for their promos (which is one reason I'm fairly confident NC State won't get picked ahead of us.)  They don't want anyone at 6-6 if they don't have to, I'm betting.  And in getting the fifth pick, they really have the sixth because two SEC teams will go BCSing.  So that means South Carolina, Georgia, etc. are out of reach.  Auburn is really the only team left worth having.

-- Orange Bowl (Miami)

Matchup: BCS at-large
Potential opponents: Whatever shitty Big East team ends up at the top of the scrum, or Houston

Here we are in dreamland.  Either fortunately or unfortunately, depending on your view on things, the Orange Bowl has the dead-last selection in the at-large rotation.  All the good teams will be taken by then, leaving the Orange Bowl with some team that automatically qualified and nobody wants.  That's probably the Big East.  The Sugar Bowl picks one slot ahead of the Orange, and if Houston is automatically BCS-eligible (which they will be if they win out) I think the Sugar would take the team from right next door.  Obviously there's still a pile of work to be done before we have to worry about this.

*************************************************

So, what do I think is most likely?  There are three paths from here:

- Lose to Tech
- Beat Tech, lose to Clemson
- Win out

Door #3 is the Orange Bowl, but obviously also the least likely.  Door #2 - probably the Sun Bowl, as even then, VT will have a better record, and better name recognition too, I suspect, meaning Atlanta will pass on us.  They might not, but I think they would.  We need a few years to take care of that problem.  Door #1 means either the Sun Bowl or a trip to Charlotte for the Department Store Bowl; no way Wake gets picked over us, and I doubt NC State would, either.

WIDE LEFT

NEXT WEEK.  IN CHARLOTTESVILLE.  FOR ALL THE MARBLES.  HIDE YA KIDS HIDE YA WIFE HIDE YA HUSBANDS.  HOOS BEATIN' ERRBODY UP IN HERE.  REVENGE FOR 2007.  AND BASICALLY ALL THOSE OTHER YEARS TOO.  TURKEY DINNER.  AND RIGHT NOW, BEER AND LOTS OF IT.  LET'S GO HOOS!

game preview: Florida State

Date/Time: Saturday, November 19; 7:30

TV: ESPN2

History against the Noles: 2-14

Last matchup: FSU 34, UVA 14; 10/2/10; Charlottesville

Last weekend: UVA 31, Duke 21; FSU 23, Miami 19

Line: FSU by 17.5

Opposing blogs: Tomahawk Nation

Injury report:

Virginia**

OUT:
S Pablo Alvarez, WR E.J. Scott, WR Bobby Smith, WR Matt Snyder

PROBABLE:
SS Rodney McLeod, RB Kevin Parks, TE Colter Phillips

**I've limited the names that appear on the injury report to those that appear on this site's depth chart; the availability, or lack thereof, of the 3rd-string long-snapper is of questionable impact.

Florida State

OUT:
WR Willie Haulstead, OL Henry Orelus, DT Darious Cummings, OT Andrew Datko, DT Moses McCray, DT Jacobbi McDaniel, RB Chris Thompson

How do you know a big game is at hand?  When it's in prime time, and ESPN Classic runs historical replays of famous games past to get you good and built up for it.  UVA has never won in Tallahassee, and this doesn't look like a great chance to break that streak, but at least UVA is good enough this time to hold out hope for it.  You know the stakes as far as the postseason goes; the best way I've seen it described is that it's tournament time.  Win and you advance.  UVA got past the cupcakey first round and is now in the heat of it.

-- UVA run offense vs. FSU run defense

Top backs:
Perry Jones: 162 carries, 856 yards, 5.3 avg.
Kevin Parks: 125 carries, 616 yards, 4.9 avg.

UVA offense:
187.6 yards/game, 4.56 yards/attempt
42nd of 120 (national), 5th of 12 (ACC)

FSU defense:
85 yards/game, 2.35 yards/attempt
2nd of 120 (national), 1st of 12 (ACC)

FSU fans are extremely confident about their ability to shut down the UVA run game, and they have a right to be; those are scary numbers.  Certainly the best run defense we've faced all year. Outside linebackers Nigel Bradham and Christian Jones make plays.  The defensive line is big and athletic.  And as Dylan from Tomahawk Nation told us, the defensive line rotates a lot of players; at least 10, according to him, where UVA rotates 6 regularly and sometimes 7.

But this is a strength of the UVA attack, as I'm sure you know.  Against UNC, currently the 13th-best run defense in the country, Kevin Parks was able to average 7 yards a carry.  And FSU is tough, but not impenetrable; Oklahoma and Miami were able to grind out between 3.5-4.5 yards a carry for their running backs.  And Wake Forest's Josh Harris went crazy on them for 136 yards.

Any team that has been able to keep it close on FSU, or even beat them, has squeezed some production out of the running game.  This is the strength-on-strength aspect of the game right here, and UVA and Bill Lazor shouldn't fall into the trap of abandoning the run early.  UVA has a big offensive line - a little bigger than what the Noles are used to - and there's nothing wrong with three yards and a cloud of dust.  I don't think UVA will be able to fancify their way to yardage, and if they insist on going back to a huge pet peeve of mine (sweeps and tosses and the like to the short side of the field) they'll be murdered, because FSU's linebackers can get there in a hurry.  Keep it simple and see what happens, I think is the key.

Barring any big plays, you won't see us getting five, six yards a carry.  That's for the crappy defenses like GT.  So how will we do?  Here are some comparisons for you: Oklahoma and Miami are very, very close to UVA in terms of run game prowess.  UVA gets 4.56 YPC; Oklahoma gets 4.67 and Miami gets 4.59.  Miami's Lamar Miller averaged 4.2 last week, and Oklahoma's top two backs combined for 3.7.  Is there a good reason UVA can't get to about those numbers?  After all, we bottled up Miller better than that; he averaged 4.4 against us but was getting 1.5 until UVA backed off to prevent any lightning strikes.  If Lazor commits to the run, I think UVA can make it work.  Nowhere near as well as we're used to, but 4 yards a carry would be good work.  I think Parks and Jones will combine for about that, maybe a little less, and between them have about 130 yards.  That would be good enough to keep this game close.

-- UVA pass offense vs. FSU pass defense

Quarterback:
Mike Rocco: 158/267, 59.2%; 1,910 yds, 10 TD, 9 INT; 7.15 yds/attempt

Top receivers:
Kris Burd: 47 rec., 630 yards, 1 TD
Perry Jones: 32 rec., 354 yards, 2 TD

UVA offense:
232.9 yards/game, 6.8 yards/attempt
73rd of 120 (national), 8th of 12 (ACC)

FSU defense:
194.5 yards/game, 6.4 yards/attempt
20th of 120 (national), 1st of 12 (ACC)

We've been spoiled lately....it's been a while since we went against a good pass defense.  FSU's run defense is really good, but even as good as they are, I think the difference is greater between the pass defenses we've seen lately, and FSU's.  However, that's on the surface - in terms of YPA.  Lurking behind that number is a beatable pass defense.

As Dylan from TN pointed out in the Q&A session, FSU's linebackers are relatively deficient in pass coverage, so FSU goes to the nickel a little more frequently.  But I suspect that what the numbers show is that teams find some success dinking underneath: despite the solid YPA number, FSU allows about a 60% pass completion rate, which is only 69th in the country; not bad, not great.  And they don't pick off a lot of passes.  Safety Lamarcus Joyner has three (and Joyner is also a force in run defense so he's a lot like Duke's Matt Daniels in terms of type of player) but nobody else has more than one, and FSU only has nine INTs on the season.

To me, the biggest concern in this aspect of the game is defensive end Bjoern Werner.  Werner is a pass rush force with six sacks and six pass knockdowns.  He'll go against Morgan Moses, and Oday Aboushi will work on Brandon Jenkins, who has 4.5 sacks.  You're looking at another strength-on-strength matchup here; FSU's 32 sacks mean only two teams in the country have more, and UVA's 8 sacks allowed is 10th best nationally.  UVA has neutralized opposing pass rushes by not running slow-developing routes and having Rocco be quick about delivering the ball; it helps that the O-line is pretty good, too.

We have a true sophomore quarterback and the game atmosphere will be rowdy.  Rocco has done well on the road, but in front of sparse crowds.  Given that, I hesitate to say that UVA will find consistent success here.  The key is not converting third downs; the key will be to convert before it gets to third down.  Or at least set up a third and short that can be run for.  However, what we do have going for us is that the UVA passing game style tends to play into how you want to attack the Seminole defense.

Rocco's been playing well of late, and I think he'll continue to boost that TD/INT ratio.  He started the season, what, 1-to-6 or 7?  And now he's in the black.  But we need a big game from Kris Burd.  That means no drops; there have been too many of those this season from a guy whose reputation is of better hands than that.  And no balls bouncing off Darius Jennings' face mask, either.  On-target passes have to become receptions.  Because of the athleticism in FSU's linebackers, I don't think we'll see much success in the passes-that-are-runs game, meaning screens and the like, so the receivers need to step up.

-- FSU run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Devonta Freeman: 86 carries, 443 yards, 5.2 avg.
E.J. Manuel: 77 carries, 145 yards, 2.1 avg.

FSU offense:
120.1 yards/game, 3.65 yards/attempt
93rd of 120 (national), 9th of 12 (ACC)

UVA defense:
117.1 yards/game, 3.46 yards/attempt
31st of 120 (national), 4th of 12 (ACC)

This is the one part of FSU's game that has sputtered some.  It took them a while to settle on a running back; they finally handed the keys to Devonta Freeman about halfway into the season.  Injuries have shuffled the Seminole offensive line more than would be good for them, though they'll be pretty healthy coming into this Saturday.  But most of the individual players haven't been able to settle in to a position and make it their own.

The option is a significant part of the Florida State run game, which could be pretty favorable for UVA; after all, we defended it pretty well against Georgia Tech.  The trick is that against GT, you always know it's coming, and E.J. Manuel is more athletic than Tevin Washington.  Manuel is a tough customer, but when it comes to defending him, it's not the designed runs that I worry about.

As for Freeman, he's built like Kevin Parks: low to the ground and stocky.  I wouldn't call him a home-run threat.  He had a 41-yard carry against Maryland (which is Maryland) but otherwise his longest run of the year is 23 yards.  Freeman is averaging 5.2 yards a carry, but I don't think he'll get there against UVA.  In fact, I think the result here will be that FSU and UVA have very similar rushing totals.

-- FSU pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
E.J. Manuel: 159/236, 67.4%; 2,152 yards, 15 TD, 8 INT; 9.12 yds/attempt

Top receivers:
Rodney Smith: 29 rec., 507 yards, 4 TDs
Rashad Greene: 29 rec., 476 yards, 6 TDs

FSU offense:
282.7 yards/game, 9.2 yards/attempt
5th of 120 (national); 2nd of 12 (ACC)

UVA defense:
215.1 yards/game, 6.5 yards/attempt
29th of 120 (national), 2nd of 12 (ACC)

FSU's run defense is outstanding, and I'm sure it'll be productive, but it doesn't scare me.  Their pass defense is solid, but it doesn't scare me.  The 82,000-seat stadium will be sold-out and raucous and loud, but that doesn't scare me either.  This scares me.

All season, UVA has not had to deal with a mobile quarterback like E.J. Manuel.  Sure, there was Tevin Washington, but he was an option facilitator, not a mobile, scrambling, strong-armed quarterback.  Manuel is good.  Really good.  And FSU has managed to dig up receivers from everywhere; UVA should be able to neutralize one of them by planting Chase Minnifield on him, but FSU spreads the ball around a lot.

One guy you'll see a lot of is Dom Joseph; a nickel package will be critical here.  Because I'm not sure I trust our linebackers in pass coverage.  Steve Greer and Aaron Taliaferro just don't have the athleticism.  Laroy Reynolds will be called on a lot.

Defending this attack will start with the defensive line.  They'll have the dual responsibility of containing Manuel so he can't take off running, and giving him less time to throw than he'd like, because I suspect that if FSU comes out three and four wide, which they will at some point, those receivers will be able to do the scramble drill and get open after their routes have been exhausted.

Manuel can be both efficient and spectacular when needed.  I just know at some point FSU will be facing third down, and they'll pick it up in a spectacular way.  We need a ton of discipline from the safeties; Corey Mosley did a poor job of that against Duke, falling for play-action time and again.  If he doesn't stay good and deep, at some point he will find himself chasing a Seminole receiver into the end zone.  In order to keep UVA in the game, there can't be any big plays like there were against Duke.  That was the entire Duke offense; FSU is a little more capable and versatile.

Unfortunately, I don't see us keeping them off the big-play scoresheet.  At some point during this game, I think FSU will score from the wrong side of midfield.  If we can keep the FSU passing game in front of the defense, that's a win, but if Manuel gets loose and players lose track of assignments, it'll all go downhill in a big hurry.

-- Outlook

The outlook is that UNC ain't worth shit.  Because UNC is useless, and ACC refereeing crews like to do things like hand VT free bogus pass interference penalties and not penalize them for helmet-to-helmet hits, VT is now in position to clinch the Coastal Division on Saturday - if we lose.  So the division comes down to Saturday.  Unfortunately, I think the Heels were in a much better position than we are.  Tallahassee at night is a tough place to play, and UVA will have its hands full with E.J. Manuel.

Now, here's your silver lining of hope: Last week, Florida State played a tense, perhaps draining game against archrival #1, Miami.  Next week, they will play an even tenser game against archrival #1A, Florida, in Gainesville.  UVA is the dreaded sandwich game, and now they know for a fact that there's something tangible to play for besides just a win and "improved bowl prospects," which are always fluffy and hard to make out.  Florida State is not invincible; there are exploitable matchups.  However, they're also, on paper, much more talented overall.  Not bringing the A-game to Tallahassee isn't an option.  I think the Hoos will, and I like the possibility of being overlooked, but there's too much going against us here.

-- Prediction summary

- Perry Jones and Kevin Parks combine for about 3.8-4.0 yards per carry.
- The UVA rushing game totals about 140 yards.
- Mike Rocco throws more TDs than INTs.....if even any INTs at all.
- Devonta Freeman also gets about four yards a carry.
- Florida State has at least one scoring play of 50+ yards.
- FSU converts a long third down (10 yards or more) by picking up at least twice the necessary yardage.

- Final score: FSU 27, UVA 17

-- Rest of the ACC:

- Virginia Tech 24, North Carolina 21 (Thanks for nothing, Heels. You too, Ron Cherry. Penalty for giving UNC the business.)
- Georgia Tech at Duke, 12:30 (What will happen of course is that Duke will win, meaning we should've been pulling hard for GT all along last week.)
- Maryland at Wake Forest, 3:00 (I got nothing.  This game is pretty much meaningless.)
- Miami at South Florida, 3:30 (USF once put up a billboard telling the big 3 in Florida to move over and make room for a fourth.  I think Miami obliged.)
- Clemson at NC State, 3:30 (If NC State wants to go bowling, they've gotta beat a one-loss team to get there.  Any other team but Clemson, I'd count 'em out, but Clemson has a way sometimes.)
- Boston College at Notre Dame, 4:00 (This is a rivalry supposedly because BC is Jesuit and ND is not.  I think it's really just about helmet rights.)

a civil conversation with Tomahawk Nation

We don't see much of Florida State these days, and won't see 'em again until 2015**, so to get us all edjikated up on the Seminoles, it's time for another Q&A session.  I exchanged pleasantries with Bud and Dylan at Tomahawk Nation, and here is the result.  As ever, you know the drill; when TN posts the other half, you'll get your linky right here.  (Here you go with the other half.  They asked better questions than I did, so I think it's a good read if I do say so myself.)

**Or maybe later, since by 2015 the conference will be bigger.

1. FSU has a ton of talent, and sits at or near the top of the stat sheet in a lot of categories offensive and defensive. But it hasn't really been there every single week; what did the teams that beat FSU do to come out on top?

- When Oklahoma came to Tallahassee in week three, reasonable fans didn’t expect FSU to come out on top. The ‘Noles played arguably their best game of the season against OU, but EJ Manuel went down early in the second half with a shoulder injury. Oklahoma simply outgunned Florida State. The Sooners benefit from years of relative staff continuity and have recruited phenomenally, finding themselves among the best programs in the nation for a decade. Seminole faithful would have loved to dethrone OU in primetime, but the outcome didn’t alarm or anger reasonable fans.

With Manuel out with his shoulder injury FSU then traveled to Clemson the following week. Freshman Clint Trickett made his first career start in Death Valley and played an outstanding game. The disappointing part of this game was that the Seminole defense, the strength of the team, wasn’t able to keep pace with the freshman-led offense playing over its head. Clemson’s offense is quite good and ‘Noles cornerback Greg Reid was out with an injury, which kept FSU from playing nickel on defense. However, this game left a sour taste in the mouths of Florida State fans because Trickett and the offense gave the ‘Noles a chance to win the game and the defense couldn’t keep pace.

After a bye week, the debacle that ensued had Seminole fans in meltdown mode. Trickett again started, but simply played like a freshman with multiple turnovers early. Manuel came in, but it was passing-skeleton, stationary EJ who isn’t nearly as effective as the mobile version. The FSU offense was anemic and continually put its defense in terrible positions, but the defense had its struggles as well. It was unacceptable for FSU to play the way it did off of a bye week against Wake Forest and it was an indictment of everyone involved with the program, despite the large number of injuries the‘Noles were dealing with.

There really hasn’t been a template for beating Florida State this year. One common theme in the games that FSU has lost is that EJ Manuel has been out for at least some portion of the game. The Seminole offense without a fully functional, mobile EJ isn’t nearly as effective as it is with him. Florida State also struggled mightily with injuries early in the season. The defense has continued to improve and is a very good unit that has remained relatively healthy.

2. Why hasn't the running game been very productive?

- This is the area in which the offensive line woes have really shown up. Zero of FSU’s current five o-line starters began the season as the starter at their current positions. Senior left tackle Andrew Datko was lost for the season with a shoulder injury and senior Zebrie Sanders moved from his right tackle position to the left, and 17 year old freshman Bobby Hart stepped in to fill the void there. The second game of the season saw a position switch between FSU’s center and left guard, and right guard David Spulock has also suffered an injury. Since that time, center Bryan Stork has been injured and true freshman Austin Barron filled in, though he was relieved by Stork against Miami. The line simply hasn’t been able to play as a cohesive unit, which is paramount in a zone blocking system.

The FSU backs were also culpable in the early season, missing their fair share of the holes that were created. Freshman Devonta Freeman has become the guy at running back, and the running game has improved over the weeks since the Wake Forest debacle. FSU’s rushing attack needs a fully mobile EJ Manuel. He’s a fluid runner who’s has a great feel for the option, and his legs are a staple of the ‘Noles offense when he’s healthy. The threat of his legs is the basis for the running game when it’s at its best.

3. On the flip side, what's the secret to EJ Manuel's success?

Manuel is 6’5” 240lbs and an amazingly smooth runner with long strides, and is very difficult to bring down. As mentioned above, he has a great feel for the option, though it sometimes causes him to make risky late pitches. When defenses respect his legs it opens up the rest of the game for him. He has an excellent arm and can make all of the throws he needs to make. The concerns about EJ at quarterback, for us, arise from his handling of the aspects of the game at which Christian Ponder excelled. Christian was outstanding in the pre-snap phase of the game, making checks and getting the‘Noles into the correct play based upon his reads. He was afforded greater control over the offense than any quarterback that Jimbo Fisher has ever had. Ponder was also adept at going through his progressions to find the open receiver. EJ Manuel struggled with his checks in the early part of the season and is sometimes too quick to take off running rather than staying in the pocket and going through his reads. FSU fans think and hope that EJ is improving in these areas, as his development as a player depends on him doing so.

4. Tell UVA fans about the FSU defense.

- The Seminole defense is excellent, especially against the run. Most of this is attributable to an extremely talented and deep defensive line. Though the ‘Noles lost starting defensive tackle Jacobbi McDaniel for the year with an ankle injury, the 10+ linemen that FSU will play are able to take this loss in stride. Bjoern Werner is a monster at defensive end, and Brandon Jenkins is excellent on the opposite side, often playing a roaming position while standing. The interior features Amp McCloud, who has been very solid in clogging the middle this season, and RS freshman Cam Erving has been excellent as well. True freshman Timmy Jernigan is the freak of the group, wowing everyone as his snaps have increased.

The line sometimes masks the inconsistencies of the linebacker corps. Nigel Bradham and Vince Williams struggle in coverage (though Bradham played phenomenally against Miami), prompting more playing time from Telvin Smith and Jeff Luc. Christian Jones is a freak, and #7 will be seen making plenty of plays on Saturday. Though the corners haven’t stood out as much as they did last year, we still feel that the‘Noles have three NFL-bound players at that position. The most important player on defense, though, is roaming safety true sophomore Lamarcus Joyner. Though called the strong safety by Stoops, Joyner plays a center field position for the Seminoles, doing everything from rushing the passer to playing the single-high safety spot.

Mark Stoops will show 4-3, 3-4, nickel, and 4-2-5 looks throughout the game. He will employ both man and zone coverages and blitz from anywhere and everywhere. The scheme is truly multiple, which makes life difficult for opposing offenses. It has been a pleasure to watch this unit mature and progressively dominate throughout this season and to know that it brings all of its important pieces back for next year.

5. Obligatory question about your opinion and that of FSU fans about ACC expansion. What do you think of the newcomers? What do you want the conference to look like; park it at 14, or add two more for 16? And if so, who? And for the final shot in this five-for-the-price-of-one, do you see any scenario in which FSU leaves the conference? Like, if the SEC came calling?

- By making the moves that it made, the ACC has ensured that when super-conference-a-palooza comes around it will have a seat at the table. When viewed from that perspective, it’s understandable. However, the move also showed us that the priority of the conference is basketball, which is dwarfed in terms of revenue by football. By and large, Florida State fans are deeply uncomfortable with this and question the leadership of the conference that doesn’t seem to understand this crucial component to long-term viability. Combined with the pattern of ignorance displayed by the Tobacco Road head honchos (read: scheduling, officiating), this has FSU fans feeling less than particularly fond of the ACC. As of now, it doesn’t appear that there is a rush to get to 16 teams anywhere.

However, if the Big East collapses, as it appears to be on the verge of doing, things will get interesting. I would think that there would be a mad dash to grab the unaffiliated teams to fill out conferences, probably ending up at 16. The ACC needs the best football programs it can get its hands on. The conference needs to do anything and everything it can to bring Notre Dame into the fold. It has to have football viability in order to be stable. Notre Dame and UConn would help to do this. But, I do not claim to be a conference expansion expert by any means. If the ACC proves to be a viable super conference in the coming years, the preference of Florida State fans would probably be to stay. However, if an SEC offer comes along, the likelihood of this being completely unknown, FSU would certainly have to take a serious look.

6. FSU got past Miami, and (not that I'm trying to jinx it) will probably handle Florida too, and looks like a good bet to go bowling in Orlando against Notre Dame, certainly a marquee matchup. If all this comes to pass, is it a successful season in Tallahassee?

- Seminoles fans will never be able to bring themselves to be comfortable with predicting a win over the Gators in the Swamp, especially in a night game. However, assuming (knocking on wood for hours on end) that the‘Noles do knock off the Gators following a win against UVa and end up 9-3 for the year, I think that the feelings will still be mixed. Priority number one entering the season was to win the Atlantic Division and win the conference, but these dreams were de-railed in the beginning of the season due to injuries, scheduling, and sub-par play. To have won out after finding the team at 2-3 to start the season would help in calling the season a success, but I think that the prevailing sentiment will be that the year still did not meet expectations. Florida State has recruited better than anyone in its division, despite the recent success of Clemson in this regard. Though the Tigers have played well this season and have been better in Chad Morris’s first year than anyone expected, Seminoles fans are still deeply disappointed with coming up short in the Atlantic.

Reasonable fans have to factor in the injuries and the scheduling, though. It was ridiculous of the ACC to schedule FSU-Clemson the week after both teams played marquee non-conference games. It was ridiculous of FSU to schedule Oklahoma in the first place, though that’s the fault of the athletic department. It was amazing how many injuries the ‘Noles piled up in the early part of the season. So, I find it tough to say that the year would be an outright failure when objectively evaluating the season. A lot will depend on how the team plays for the rest of the season in determining just how successful 2011 ended up being.

7. Game prediction? I suspect you think the Noles will win, but, are you taking the Noles on the 18-point spread, or taking the Hoos and the points? Last year you figured an 80% chance of an FSU win in this game, which might've been generous in hindsight; anything change this year?

- When the schedule came out, many FSU fans viewed this game as a potential trap. Florida State is coming off of a rivalry game with Miami and is a week away from traveling to Gainesville to take on the Gators in a night game. If this game kicked off at noon, I suspect that ‘Noles fans would be deeply concerned about the “sandwich game” factor. However, a 7:30 kickoff, homecoming, and senior night are likely to result in a near-capacity Doak Campbell Stadium and should help to mitigate most effects that the trap game presents. I don’t expect Virginia to have success on offense against FSU’s defense. The Cavaliers just haven’t played a team with a defense anywhere close to the level of Florida State’s, which obviously isn’t their fault. I think that the defense will give the FSU offense favorable field position and easy opportunities to score points, as will the ‘Noles special teams, which are currently ranked the best in the nation.  I expect the Seminole offense to spread the ‘Hoos defense and exploit the match-up of their third and fourth receivers against Virginia’s third/fourth corners and safeties. I’ll be bold here and take the ‘Noles to cover a hefty spread at 29-10.

8. Bonus question - a stump-the-star to satisfy my curiosity. Feel free to ignore if you'd rather do so. This weekend you tweeted that you could think of 10 3-loss teams better than UVA - who might they be? (I can think of about four that I'd concede right off the bat, and my Blogpoll ballot betrays a couple others. But I'm curious about the rest.)

I'd for sure take FSU (7-3), Notre Dame (7-3), Texas A&M (5-5), Texas (6-3), Ohio State (6-4),

I personally do think Georgia Tech and Miami are better, but y'all beat them so I can't go there.

I think I could make an honest argument that these 16 have been as good or better.

Missouri
South Florida
Arizona State
Rutgers
Iowa
Temple
Florida
Toledo
Pittsburgh
North Carolina
Tulsa
West Virginia
Illinois
Louisiana Tech
Mississippi State
BYU

(ed: I was thinking of only the three-loss teams - not ones with even more - so that's a longer list than I expected.  I think a couple of those are plain crazy (La. Tech) but on the other hand it's not like I can beef with UNC.  Several of those teams are potential bowl opponents.)

************************************************

Thanks are in order to Bud and Dylan for some very detailed answers.  Game preview tonight.  And while we're on the subject of tonight, go Heels.

game preview: TCU

Date/Time: Friday, November 19; 6:00

TV: Nyet

History against the Frogs: 0-0

Last matchup: N/A

Last game: UVA 69, Winthrop 48 (11/15); TCU 103, Austin College 45 (11/14)

Opposing blogs: none that care about hoops

KenPom breakdown:

Tempo:
UVA: 61.1 (#341)
TCU: 67.6 (#169)

Offense:
UVA: 103.7 (#105)
TCU: 100.5 (#169)

Defense:
UVA: 92.7 (#31)
TCU: 102.3 (#214)

(Explanation of KenPom stats: "Tempo" number is number of offensive possessions per game.  "Offense" and "Defense" numbers are points scored/allowed per 100 possessions.  All numbers are adjusted, using the magic KenPom formula; therefore they are not actual, but projections of predicted results against an average team on a neutral court.)

Friday, we have a game that nobody can watch, against a mediocre opponent against whom we have no history whatsoever.  Why, then, a game preview?  It's not like I did one for SC State.  Well, because I've called this one of the most important games of the year - if not the most - and that deserves a preview.  Life on the bubble means having your fate controlled by the RPI, and that means playing good competition.  And this is our preseason tournament, so a win garners the reward of playing that competition.  Win this game, and the likely reward is a game against RPI-boosting Drexel.  Lose, and the likely punishment is a game against RPI-killing Norfolk State.  The ultimate goal of this tournament is to get Big Easter Marquette onto the schedule, and hopefully beat them, too.

About the opponent:

TCU is a football school, OK.  Similar to Boise State, they've hung their hat on football in order to try and raise the school's profile; in this, they've succeeded with a Big 12 invite.  However, that prioritization is reflected in their basketball results; they basically end up playing out the string to .500 records and no postseason most years.

-- When UVA has the ball

I can't believe I'm saying this, but: Assane Sene can be used as - an offensive weapon.  Troof.  In fact, this will be the case any time we face an opponent like TCU, which has nobody taller than 6'9" in their rotation.  Two games now, we have seen Sene assert himself on the offensive end with left-handed lay-ins, baby hooks, and general abuse of those shorter than him.  Sene actually got into double figures against Winthrop.

The team is going to have to get used to the idea of pounding it inside.  I don't think that's wired into their consciousness yet, which is understandable - that hasn't been a great strategy in the past.  This is the kind of game, though, where they can take advantage of a size advantage and get Sene and the other post players the ball.

TCU has historically been a team that allows a very high shooting percentage.  And under current coach Jim Christian, TCU has never finished in the top 300 nationally in blocked shot percentage - that is, the KenPom metric that gives you the percentage of defensive possessions that end in blocked shots.  This looks like it's going to continue; Florida-Gulf Coast, which is TCU's only D-I opponent so far this year (and has been D-I for all of like five years) shot over 61% against TCU, and over 42% from beyond three.  This is not a very good defensive team we're talking about.

Maybe I'm a little jaded from the Winthrop game, where shots were just not falling, but I'd like to see UVA start banging it inside and see how that works.  I bet it works pretty good.  TCU's tallest rotation player, Amric Fields, weighs in at 210 pounds.  He won't be able to guard either Mike Scott or Assane Sene.

The other interesting matchup that UVA may be able to exploit is at point guard, where TCU has a pair of smallish players.  I don't have any idea if Sammy Zeglinski will be available on Friday; if not, Malcolm Brogdon will once again be the backup point guard, and he'll have a huge size advantage on whoever guards him; TCU has VT transfer Hank Thorns, who checks in at 5'9, 165, and one-time UVA recruit Kyan Anderson, who isn't much bigger.  TCU has better size at the 2 and 3, but they give up inches and pounds at the 1.  Brogdon in particular may look to post up a defender, or draw a double team coming to help and hopefully find the resulting open man.

On the boards, UVA's attention should focus on forwardish-guard J.R. Cadot, TCU's ballhawk rebounder.  Garlon Green is a starting forward, but he's not a rebounder - he mainly gets only what his height hands him.  Like Fields, he's rather skinny and is more of a guard in a forward's body.

The final word, I think, is that UVA's point total depends on UVA.  There isn't much that TCU brings that's different from what we've seen or what we'll see in the future.  The UVA offense still has work to do to find its rhythm, and I think we can expect to see more of that herky-jerkiness until they really gel into a cohesive unit.

-- When TCU has the ball

TCU brings back two of its best players from last year in forward Garlon Green and point guard Hank Thorns.  Green is the leading returning scorer, and will probably lead the team this year.  TCU brought in a large infusion of transfer talent that shows up eligible this year, and Thorns may look to defer the scoring a little bit in favor of being a distributor.  Last year he averaged 7 assists per game (which was fourth-best in the country) against just 2.6 turnovers, so he is a threat.

However, when Thorns is not in the game, UVA should look to take advantage of Kyan Anderson, who has been turnover-prone in TCU's first two games.  TCU has thrown him into the fire as the backup point guard, and his numbers just scream "freshman."  His small-sample-size turnover ratio is barely above 1-to-1, and UVA should look to take advantage and create some fast break opportunities when Thorns is out of the game.

TCU's lopsided win against Division III Austin College skews their stats pretty heftily, but it's clear that the dangermen here are Thorns, Green, and Cadot.  Thorns rescued the FGCU game by hitting a layup in the closing seconds and played all but five minutes of the game.  Jontel Evans defending Thorns - that should be fun.  Our first string is probably better than theirs, but our second string is definitely better, and it's when the bench enters the game that UVA should look to go on its big runs.

-- Outlook

TCU has some players - Hank Thorns and Garlon Green are likely to be the best players we've seen so far.  J.R Cadot - not bad.  But UVA's defensive effort so far has been unimpeachable, and that's likely to continue.  When we find our offense, look out.  Full disclosure - this post has been brought to you by Sailor Jerry's, and not a small amount of it either.  (I got out early from class and decided to celebrate.)  However, the rum cannot obscure this fact: TCU is not good.  Not really "bad", but not good.  A loss here would be disappointing to say the least.  This game will have its competitive moments, but if we've got the tournament team that I think we do, it should be at least a 15-point win.

-- Final score: UVA 70, TCU 53

RPI-building

So you're interested in whether or not the hoops team can make the NCAA tournament.  Great!  Me too.  Life on the bubble being what it is, the RPI are your most important three letters in answering the above questions.  RPI is not a complicated formula; it is as follows:

RPI = (0.25 * win%) + (0.5 * opponents' win%) + (0.25 * opponents' opponents' win%)


Because of this, it's very important that our opponents not crash and burn.  I know at least one of you out there wants a tool to keep track of whether they do or not, because you asked for it.  I bet others might like it too.  So here's the deal: Every Sunday or Monday I'll update this page with last week's results and the upcoming week's games, for each of our opponents.  And yes, I'll link on the side to save you time hunting for it.

I'm ignoring, by the way, games against non D-I competition, because I'm almost positive those don't count in the RPI calculations.  Some opponents, we play twice, so you'll see them listed twice so as to emphasize their importance.  However, any game between two teams we play, you won't see; they have a neutral effect on our RPI.  You will see it if it's between one team we play twice and one we play once.  In order for our RPI to be all it can be, you are always rooting for our opponents to win.

You should note, by the way, that RPI doesn't care whether you won on the road (yes it does, dummy) or that you just beat a really awesome opponent or about margin of victory.  It's blind to all that; that's why the committee takes it into account separately.

Last week: (including Monday)

Baylor 70, SC State 50
SC State 104, Kennesaw State 98
TCU 81, Houston 80
Drake 73, Cal State-Northridge 49
Michigan 79, UCLA 63
Nevada 80, Longwood 78
Longwood 70, Prairie View A&M 67
UMKC 93, Longwood 53
George Mason 66, Albany 46
Oregon 83, Nebraska 76
Seattle 85, Montana State 73
Kansas State 92, UMES 50
Louisiana Tech 73, UMES 54
Wyoming 73, UMES 43
Portland State 79, UMES 69
Oregon State, 66, Towson 46
South Alabama 79, LSU 75
Miami 60, Florida-Gulf Coast 50
Mississippi 64, Miami 61
Duke 68, Kansas 61
Georgia Tech 72, Siena 44
Syracuse 69, Virginia Tech 58
Syracuse 69, Virginia Tech 58
Virginia Tech 59, Oklahoma State 57
Virginia Tech 59, Oklahoma State 57
Virginia Tech 73, St. Bonaventure 64
Virginia Tech 73, St. Bonaventure 64
St. Louis 61, Boston College 52
Boston College 66, UC-Riverside 62
New Mexico 75, Boston College 57
NC State 82, Elon 67
Coastal Carolina 60, Clemson 59
Coastal Carolina 60, Clemson 59
Clemson 59, Furman 49
Clemson 59, Furman 49
Florida State 73, Massachusetts 53
Florida State 73, Massachusetts 53
Harvard 46, Florida State 41
Harvard 46, Florida State 41
Connecticut 78, Florida State 76
Connecticut 78, Florida State 76
Dayton 80, Wake Forest 76
Arizona State 84, Wake Forest 56
Wake Forest 70, Texas Tech 61
North Carolina 102, Tennessee State 69
North Carolina 102, Tennessee State 69
North Carolina 87, South Carolina 62
North Carolina 87, South Carolina 62
UNLV 90, North Carolina 80
UNLV 90, North Carolina 80
Maryland 73, Florida-Gulf Coast 67
Maryland 73, Florida-Gulf Coast 67


This week:

Tuesday (29th):

SC State @ Georgia State
Oregon vs. UTEP
LSU @ Houston
Miami @ Purdue
Duke @ Ohio State
Georgia Tech vs. Northwestern
Clemson @ Iowa
Clemson @ Iowa
Maryland vs. Illinois
Maryland vs. Illinois
Wednesday (30th):

George Mason vs Bucknell, 7:00
Drexel @ St. Joseph's, 7:00
UMES vs. Navy, 7:00
Towson @ Massachusetts, 7:00
Boston College vs. Penn State, 7:15
NC State vs. Indiana, 7:15
Florida State @ Michigan State, 7:30
Florida State @ Michigan State, 7:30
TCU vs. Lamar, 8:00
Drake @ Boise State, 9:00
Virginia Tech @ Minnesota, 9:15
Virginia Tech @ Minnesota, 9:15
Wake Forest @ Nebraska, 9:15
North Carolina @ Wisconsin, 9:30
North Carolina @ Wisconsin, 9:30

Thursday (1st):

Winthrop @ Presbyterian, 7:00
Wisc.-Green Bay @ Illinois-Chicago, 8:00
Seattle vs. Stanford, 10:10

Friday (2nd):

- none -

Saturday (3rd):

Michigan vs. Iowa State, 12:00
North Carolina @ Kentucky, 12:00
North Carolina @ Kentucky, 12:00
Miami vs. Massachusetts, 1:00
Wake Forest vs. Richmond, 1:00
Georgia Tech @ Tulane, 2:00
Boston College vs. Boston University, 2:00
Drexel @ Delaware, 4:00
UMES vs. Delaware State, 4:00
Oregon vs. Brigham Young, 5:00
Winthrop @ Gardner-Webb, 7:00
LSU @ Rutgers, 7:00
Drake vs. Air Force, 8:00
Wisc.-Green Bay vs. Loyola (IL), 8:00
TCU @ Evansville, 8:05

Sunday (4th):

Seattle @ Harvard, 2:00
Clemson vs. South Carolina, 3:30
Clemson vs. South Carolina, 3:30
NC State @ Stanford, 4:00
Maryland vs. Notre Dame, 4:45
Maryland vs. Notre Dame, 4:45
Virginia Tech vs. Kansas State, 5:30
Virginia Tech vs. Kansas State, 5:30

Good times:

-- Michigan couldn't quite catch up to Duke (though it hardly matters since both are on the schedule once), but they had a strong Maui showing all the same, the better for us for beating them.  They'll have a terrific SOS of their own, which reflects well on the ol' RPI, so you really want them to deal with that schedule effectively.

-- Any Longwood win is basically amazing.

-- Duke beat Kansas.  A-C-C!  A-C-C!  Right?

Bad times:

-- LSU probably shouldn't be losing to South Alabama.

-- Harvard is going to have a very good team this year, but that doesn't mean FSU should be losing to them.  Kind of a lousy week all around in the ACC what with Clemson also losing to Coastal Carolina.  That's a baseball school for chrissake.

weekend review

There's a lot to like about this weekend.  Getting off the schneid against Duke is huge, of course.  Moving up on the bowl ladder and staying in position to shock the world with a miracle run to the division title - also huge.  A terrific defensive effort to get the hoops season started - very nice.  Just one of those all-around decent weekends.

Let's start with football, where UVA is 7-3.  You knew that, but I just wanted to type it so I could look at it.  For any definition of "expectations," they have been exceeded.  The rest of the season is about answering the question "by how much?"  I think we should take a pinky pledge right now: "I will of course be rooting like hell for UVA in the next two games, but I promise not to be too disappointed if they lose them both."  We did, after all, just beat two of the conference's three worst teams.  (Not a given, just ask NC State about how that Boston College game went, but regardless, it's easy to get carried away.)

And I wouldn't call this a convincing win, not 100%.  The defense gave up some big plays; I had to ask myself during the game why Corey Mosley kept biting on play-action when it had been pretty well proven that Duke's running game was less productive than a community college dropout.  Chase Minnifield appeared to have been burned on a deep throw to Conner Vernon, but his gesture to Mosley shortly after making the tackle clearly indicated he was expecting help over the top and didn't get it.  Big plays of 40 or more yards (and one bullshit-ass pass interference call) preceded every one of Duke's three touchdowns - or was the touchdown in the case of the first score.

Fortunately, UVA can make big plays too, and Minnifield's pick-six was crucial in that department.  That was brought on by Cam Johnson's physical abuse of Duke's left tackle; Johnson was thisclose to hauling Sean Renfree down for a sack.  Johnson was killing that left tackle - Takoby Cofield, I think - all day.  Renfree hurried the throw, threw it behind his receiver, and I screamed TOUCHDOWN before the ball even settled into Minnifield's hands.

Making the win even nicer was the fact that, apparently, Duke has decided to act out as the conference, uh, Dukeheads.  To put it in a SFW fashion.  I dunno, maybe it's just one player - here are some reports from fans and media types regarding the actions of one of Duke's guys:

-- "He is the classic punk modern day football player ....After the terrible pass interference call on the goal line, he eggs on the crowd for a couple of minutes. He catches one pass on a WR screen and falls
down in the fetal position so he doesn't get hit. Then tops it off by spearing Chase on the interception that didn't count."

-- "It was a Duke player that ran through our band, got in the faces of our players before the game until the refs had to chase him back to his sideline. It was the Duke wide receivers mouthing off that lit Chase Minnifield up."

-- "The sophomore wideout started jawing at UVa players from the moment he stepped on the field. He made it a point to taunt each Virginia player as they ran out of the tunnel with the exception of Cam Johnson. He side-stepped the senior defensive end before resuming his yapping …"

So many apologies, because I did a no-no and ganked that last one from behind a paywall, but it ought to be seen by as wide an audience as possible because it really rounds out the picture here.  All of this is the same MFer - and it happens to be the same MFer who used to be committed to UVA, and, thank the football gods, decommitted shortly before Signing Day 2009: Tyree Watkins.  As that story goes, Watkins made a lot of enemies on his official visit to UVA (which he took in January, after committing), mostly by - you guessed it - trash talking and generally being a punk.  Doing that on an official visit to future teammates is baffling.  It wouldn't surprise me if the coaches de-offered him after that visit.

So you can see maybe why Chase Minnifield took a swing at Duke's quarterback.  That bogus PI plus the yammering from the Dookies - and I'm sure Watkins wasn't the only loose cannon - tends to set one off.  The only complaint I have is that if our senior captain is going to get involved in the chippiness, at least let's not do it in a way that gets you suspended if the refs see you.  Fortunately, it apparently was Three Blind Refs week all across the ACC, so the only penalties and ejections were phantom ones.

A couple other names have to be mentioned before we mosey on to the other stuff:

- Max Milien, for being the team's leading receiver.  Big day for Milien, and he looked good.

- Perry Jones - they call him Superman, and one day I will have to photoshop a cape onto a picture of him taking that flying leap over the pile for his touchdown.  Jones did a lot of things that - well, I don't want to say they "don't show up on the stat sheet," because they involve adding yardage to the total.  But the stat sheet hides the fact that Jones was constantly, constantly turning negative yards into positive, and turning small positive gains into bigger ones.  Then we toss him out there for a punt return and he takes it back 21 yards.  The stat sheet shows a kind of run-of-the-mill day, nothing special, but Jones's work in keeping drives going just by getting three yards when it looked like minus-two, that was huge.

- Laroy Reynolds, for no other reason than the MANTACKLE he made for a TFL.  I don't even remember when, but I remember the hit.

- And finally, Matt Conrath for his third FG block of the season.  Special teams, man, I don't know what to make of them.  They are really bad, except for when they're really good.  Completely miserable blocking on the opening kickoff, a kickoff going out of bounds, Dominique Terrell's bonehead decision to get near a punt - special teams wasn't too cool, man, and it's had its ugly-ass moments all year.  But then Conrath busts through to get a paw on a kick to prevent Duke from taking advantage of Terrell's blunder and it's all good again.  And that had another effect on the game, or it should have: No doubt with that block in mind, Duke later went for it on fourth down inside the 10 and was stuffed by Mosley's pass breakup.  Which the refs then decided to cock up with the first bogus PI call.

Oh, and I started to write the next section and then I remembered this one, too: Conrath getting to Renfree on a handoff.  That is the single most awesome thing a defensive lineman can do, period, full stop, exclamation point but no question mark, end of discussion.  That is hilariously awesome when that happens.  It is bad-ass.  Conrath killed that play and then he killed the field goal.  Duke was forced to double-team him or he would have torn someone's ribcage out, which is part of the reason Cam Johnson was allowed to work Cofield over one-on-one.

Let's see how I did on the predictions.  Spoiler: not too well.

- Perry Jones has 20+ carries, 100+ rushing yards, and 4+ receptions.
Jones had the all-around do-everything day I expected, but he still fell just shy of each of these marks; 15 carries, 74 yards, and 3 catches.

- UVA's running attack will have another 200+ yard game.
Only 166 minus the kneeldown, but I feel gypped.  Lazor inexplicably went to the pass on several occasions when Duke had shown absolutely no inclination to stop the run.  Especially when it would've been advantageous to put a little bit of clock behind us.  Take four Rocco passes, turn them into runs, and we would've gotten 16 yards closer to that goal of 200 and added more plays to the total number that we ran besides.  I believe this.  Don't get me wrong: Lazor is a godsend and I do not look forward to the day when he gets an opportunity elsewhere.  I think, however, that he has a pattern of sometimes passing too much and abandoning the run too soon.  This is a damn good rushing team.  If we find an opponent that can't stop us, we ought to be handing off 50, 60 times a game til they can.

- Mike Rocco throws a Verica-style interception that makes you wonder what the hell he was looking at.

Nope.

- Duke has less than 100 yards rushing.
Oh hell yes, and in a big way.  Duke ran for 34 yards.  OK, 47 if you take out what Renfree was credited for.  (But not the -3 "team" rush, because that was Conrath's handoff destruction.)  Duke's inability to run the ball at all, and their insistence on trying anyway, was the largest slice of the "why we won this game" pie chart.

- Donovan Varner hauls in at least six catches.
That he did as well, with seven.  I expected this because Minnifield was assigned Conner Vernon; it helped that Vernon left the game for a spell, and also that Varner was covered by a linebacker on his 64-yard touchdown sprint.  Not good times.

- Sean Renfree throws the ball at least 30 times, but for less than 250 yards.
Big plays got him to 303, which sucks for my prognostication because I was even allowing for a big play or two in that number.  Got to cut down on those big plays; however, it should be noted that Renfree had 145 yards on 35 "other" passes, so the pass defense wasn't the near-disaster that the stat sheet claims.

The spread that I was picking against gave Duke 10 points, which turned out to be the final margin, so my ATS record goes to 5-4-1 on the season with a push this week.  But I'm 6-4 overall, and 31-for-76 on the specific predictions.  I guess that's OK - it's a little shy of 41% - but I'm hoping to finish stronger, of course.

*******************************************

The basketball, that was nice too.  It's all about the defense.  Defense defense defense.  The UVA players were almost always perfectly positioned.  One thing that was nice as well: TV deals being what they are, usually the only UVA games I get to watch are against ACC opponents, or the top nonconference games - ACC/B1G Challenge, tournaments, what have you.  So the competition is usually at least equal, and often better.  It was a nice change for once to watch UVA in a game where they were clearly and obviously athletically superior.

That helped, for sure.  All the usual caveats apply about the level of competition.  SC State is one of the worst teams in one of the worst conferences; Winthrop, which is Tuesday's opponent, isn't much better.  Still, no matter how bad your opponent, you're doing something right when you're going on a 24-0 run that lasts seven minutes.  The Hoos didn't block a lot of shots and didn't get an absurd number of steals, but they were in front of every SC State shot all day long.  Any that went in were definitely earned.

Mike Scott was every bit the rebound hawk we expect, snagging 15 in way fewer minutes than he's gonna get in most games.  Joe Harris and KT Harrell provided the scoring.  I thought James Johnson looked pretty good; not perfect, gave up the baseline once or twice which is the first no-no in Bennett's defense, but good footwork in space and in getting out to the passing lanes and then back inside the pack line.  Assane Sene actually looks smooth with the ball in his hand, instead of the glass-handed ostrich he was as a sophomore.

It appears Paul Jesperson will redshirt, which was my guess, and it's disappointing that we didn't get to see any of Darion Atkins, who's been shut down for three games.  This is not the time you want to be suspended.  Bet he'd have played a solid 15 minutes.  Going four deep at the bigs is fine, for a while, but not if someone gets hurt or in foul trouble or something.  More time for JJ to prove himself, I guess, at least in the next two games, one of which is the most important of the season.


*******************************************

Our Senior Seasons feature is beginning to wind down, as a few of UVA's recruits have finished their seasons, and most others had their first round of the playoffs this week.  But this one was still a busy one, so here goes:

Buford 49, Temple 13: C.J. Moore had a scoop-and-score to get the scoring started in a first-round romp for Buford.  They play Jefferson County next week in the round of 16.

East Orange 21, Franklin 7: Kye Morgan had 11 carries for 50 yards in the loss; he had a 40-yarder but was otherwise pretty much bottled up.  Franklin's playoff run ends, although two weeks from now they have one more game which I guess is a scrimmage; it doesn't count for much.

Bayside 27, Woodside 21: Anthony Cooper caught two touchdowns in a mild upset.

Hampton 16, Green Run 12: Mark Hall had 7 catches for 138 yards, and Green Run came really close but couldn't quite pull off the big upset of Jamall Brown and Hampton.

Salem 62, Ocean Lakes 28: Eli Harold ran for two touchdowns and threw for another before leaving with an ankle injury** and Ocean Lakes got blown the #%&$ out afterwards.

Norfolk Christian 45, Isle of Wight 0: Wil Wahee and Mario Nixon each had a touchdown.  NCS goes for a state title next weekend.

Highland Springs 12, Varina 7: Maurice Canady ran for 131 yards and a touchdown, but was only 5-for-17 passing in a loss to end the regular season.

Gonzaga 28, DeMatha 27 (Michael Moore)
Central Bucks South 52, Plymouth-Whitemarsh 24 (Matt Johns)
Malvern Prep 23, Chestnut Hill Academy 0 (Michael Mooney; Malvern is 9-1.)
Houston Stratford 20, Willis 14 (Kelvin Rainey)
Cushing Academy 31, Worcester Academy 14 (Canaan Severin; WA is 4-4.)
Hermitage 38, Patrick Henry 14 (Andre Miles-Redmond; Hermitage is 10-0.)
Grassfield 17, Landstown 6 (Kyle Dockins)

That ends the seasons for Kye Morgan, Michael Moore, Mark Hall, Eli Harold, and Kyle Dockins.  Michael Mooney and Malvern clinched the Inter-Academic League championship; they have a game two weeks from now and don't have playoffs.  I think, but am not sure, that Canaan Severin's season also is over without playoffs.

Advancing this week were C.J. Moore, Matt Johns, Kelvin Rainey, Jamall Brown, Anthony Cooper, and the Norfolk Christian quartet.  Cooper and Bayside will play Salem, which just decisively knocked out the one team to beat them all season.  Hampton faces Norcom.  Additionally, Demeitre Brim, Max Valles, Andre Miles-Redmond, and Maurice Canady and Tyrell Chavis start their playoff runs next week.  Varina visits L.C. Bird, and Hermitage hosts Thomas Dale.  Valles and St. Joseph play one game for their state title next week; Norfolk Christian is also going for their state title too.

**NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

I couldn't find out anything else about that.  Hopefully that's not serious, but Harold's season would be over regardless and he's got all year to get that straightened out anyway.

blogpoll ballot, week 11

Apologies for lateness.  Usually I've been more than able to take care of this on Sunday, but then, usually on Sunday I don't get to write about what UVA might do in the postseason, nor do I get to watch the hoops team eat some cupcakey goodness.  So other things got in the way, and you get the ballot today.  There might not be much time for me to see any complaints and corrections, but then, I think this is one of my better efforts and might not need much.

From Old Virginia Ballot - Week 12

Rank	Team	Delta
1	LSU Tigers	--
2	Oklahoma St. Cowboys	2
3	Alabama Crimson Tide	-1
4	Oklahoma Sooners	-1
5	Oregon Ducks	3
6	Boise St. Broncos	-1
7	Michigan Wolverines	3
8	Nebraska Cornhuskers	1
9	TCU Horned Frogs	8
10	Clemson Tigers	-4
11	Stanford Cardinal	-4
12	Wisconsin Badgers	1
13	South Carolina Gamecocks	2
14	USC Trojans	7
15	Virginia Tech Hokies	5
16	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	6
17	Penn St. Nittany Lions	-3
18	Michigan St. Spartans	7
19	Georgia Bulldogs	-3
20	Houston Cougars	-2
21	Arkansas Razorbacks	-10
22	Southern Miss. Golden Eagles	-3
23	Kansas St. Wildcats	--
24	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	--
25	Florida St. Seminoles	--
Dropouts: Texas Longhorns

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »

I'm very pleased about how the top 6 turned out.  Then we get into the Midwestern mess, where MSU beat Michigan and Wisconsin but lost to Notre Dame and Nebraska, the latter of which lost to Wisconsin and the former of which lost to Michigan.  There are triangles of ranking doom all around, and I've no doubt at all that Michigan will beat Nebraska just to make another one.  In the end it has basically come down to the teams that are higher being floated there by their other opponents.  Nebraska and Michigan have six-win delights in Washington, Wyoming, San Diego State, and Eastern Michigan**; MSU has the biggest I-A anchor of all in Florida Atlantic and kind of a sluggish, lousy game against Youngstown State.

**I don't particularly care, by the way, how a team got to its win total; at least not the down and dirty specifics like "EMU has two wins against I-AA opponents," which they do.  Of course, a Pac-12 6-win team is better than a MWC 6-win team is better than a MAC 6-win team, but that's about where I leave it, for simplicity's sake.

Anyway, you'll notice the only dropout is Texas, which is by one system point to Florida State.  If Texas didn't have an extra bye, they'd probably be there instead.**  And those 26 teams are the only ones that should be considered for a top 25 at this point.  People voting for Baylor, you're a little crazy.  People voting for Virginia, I luv ya, but you're even crazier.  People voting for Arizona State, you're certifiable.

**You'll remember that my system tends to frown upon byes.  I think it's very justifiable to do so.  Especially now; everyone has at least one, but a team that has two - well, should you not be penalized for 1) being 6-3 instead of 7-3 and 2) having that extra extra preparation week?

So, why those 26 teams?  Again, as I did last week, I did a pre-ranking of teams that come in underneath the top 25.  Those teams were, in order from top to bottom:

Florida State
West Virginia
Baylor
Tulsa
Rutgers
Cincinnati
Virginia
Brigham Young
Arkansas State
San Diego State
Wyoming

I dropped 6-4 teams from the whole thing, by the way, so no Washington, ASU, UNC, OSU, etc.  They'd never be able to hack it up against the 9-1 types.  Anyway, I added the top two to consideration for the actual ranking, and FSU barely snuck in there and there was a big gap between #26 Texas and #27 West Virginia.  A big gap.  So I can see there being some room for shuffling in the top 25, but I basically will argue with you if you try to suggest I should replace one team with another.  Rarely is there such an obvious gap between the nation's top 25 teams and the rest, but we were approaching that last week and we are definitely seeing it this week.

postseason possibilities

Time to see how the postseason picture shakes out with only two more games to go.  First, the chances of getting to the ACCCG in Charlotte.  I was gonna hold off on this just because, but UVA just guaranteed itself a winning record yesterday, which is nice.  Even more importantly, the Coastal Division race stands with all but two teams eliminated.  One of them is UVA.  Anyone who predicted before the season that the Coastal Division would come down to Virginia and Virginia Tech, no you didn't.

(In case you don't believe me on this, here's your process of elimination.  Obviously, teams with four or more losses are out; Georgia Tech has three, and the only way they get on top of the division is in a three-way tie with UVA and VT.  That would give us the division because the only way there's a three-way tie is if VT loses out - meaning to UNC and us - and we lose to FSU as well.)

Basically, then, here's your Coastal Division scenarios.  UVA plays FSU next weekend at 7:30, and VT hosts UNC at 8:00.  VT clinches if they win and we lose, which is unfortunately the most likely possibility.  UVA cannot clinch next weekend; even if we win and Tech loses, it only sets up a tie to be broken in Scott Stadium on Thanksgiving weekend.  So - we lose, Tech wins, they get the division.  Any other outcome - either a UVA win or a VT loss - sets up a divisional showdown.  Of course, you're rooting for the Hoos in Tallahassee, but you're rooting almost as hard for the Heels in Blacksburg.  (Heather Dinich says, "UVA needs to win out" but that is not true unless she's assuming VT will beat UNC.  Don't be confused.)

So where does that leave us bowl-wise?  I'm sorry to say that the win yesterday renders one of my predictions likely false; UVA almost certainly won't go to the Military Bowl in DC, as I projected before the season.  Well, not that sorry.  At this point, there's just no way that seven ACC teams are ahead of us in the bowl hierarchy.  NC State probably cost itself bowl eligibility with their bed-shitting in Boston - as was pointed out to me as a reminder, they need seven wins because two are against I-AA teams.  That means beating Clemson next weekend.  You never know, but probably not.

Wake Forest and Miami can still make bowl eligibility, and I think probably will, but even if they do, no sane bowl official will take Wake and its tiny tiny alumni base over Virginia.  That leaves a maximum of six teams ahead of us.  And Miami isn't well-known for filling up stadiums or traveling well.  Maybe they pick Miami for name recognition, maybe not.  Anyway.  The Military Bowl is basically out, and it looks like the ACC won't fill a Hunger Bowl slot either.

I'm still not gonna bother with the Orange Bowl or either of the two bowls after it, not just yet.  Those would require wins against teams that are theoretically or actually better than we are.  But since we're talking about getting to the ACCCG, let's at least start with the minimum prize for making it to Charlotte.....

-- Sun Bowl (El Paso)

Matchup: Pac-12 #4
Potential opponents: Washington, Arizona State, Utah, California, UCLA

The Pac-12 is Oregon and Stanford, then the ineligible USC, then a big soup.  I think that Washington and Arizona State are the best teams of that bunch, but it's kind of hard to say.  ASU and U-Dub seem likely to finish 8-4, so I expect one to be third and one fourth.  In that case, whichever the Holiday Bowl doesn't pick will go to El Paso; both bowls would probably prefer the much closer and rather larger ASU.  However, in order to get here, UVA will have to pull off probably two upset wins.

-- The former Tire Bowl (Charlotte)

Matchup: Big East #3
Potential opponents: Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Rutgers

Again: soup.  The Big East is a competitive race, no doubt about that, but chock-full of mediocrity.  I was hoping Cincinnati would maybe eliminate themselves from this possibility by getting a leg up on the conference with a win over West Virginia, but, no, they suck too.  UVA will probably need to pull off at least one upset to get to this bowl.

-- Music City Bowl (Nashville)

Matchup: SEC #7/#8
Potential opponents: Auburn, Florida, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State

Now here is a bowl I think UVA has already earned its way into even at 7-5; the question then is, who do bowl organizers like?  This bowl has the 6th pick.  If we lose the next two to go 7-5, that puts Clemson, VT, FSU, and GT ahead for sure, with UVA in a mix with UNC and Miami.  Miami doesn't travel well, and UNC has a chance to play its way out of consideration for finishing ahead of UVA, or might be pick #5 in Charlotte.  If you subscribe to the idea that FSU and VT will each be too big of a hurdle - certainly a major possibility - this is a likely landing spot.

As for the opponents, Auburn looks very likely to be the 6th team in an SEC hierarchy.  UGA, USCar, LSU, Alabama, and Arkansas are the top five, in some order.  Florida has finished their SEC season at 3-5, which is guaranteed to be below Auburn at (likely) 4-4.  However, the Gator Bowl has 6th pick, and never underestimate the draw of Florida in their home state.  Auburn could drop.  The other variable, of course, is the BCS, which could very easily take two SEC teams.  In fact, it probably will.  That bumps Auburn up even further, so really they're just here as a contingency.  In that case Florida is definitely not getting past the Gator Bowl, and that leaves you with Vanderbilt and Mississippi State.  In that case the Music City Bowl is very, very likely to try and engineer Vanderbilt into the matchup for obvious reasons.

-- Independence Bowl (Shreveport)

Matchup: MWC #3
Potential opponents: San Diego State, Wyoming

This is the other likely invite at 7-5, and the worst-case scenario besides.  And I don't mean that to sound bad.  The MWC structure is TCU, then Boise, then one of these two teams.  Wyoming beat SDSU earlier this year and will likely finish a game ahead in the standings, but San Diego is the obvious choice from an eyeballs and butts perspective.

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There you have it then.  I'm off to watch the basketball.  Get excited for prime time next Saturday.