Sunday, September 25, 2011

blogpoll ballot, week 4

So here's what I got this week:

SB Nation BlogPoll Top 25 College Football Rankings

From Old Virginia Ballot - Week 5

Rank Team Delta
1 LSU Tigers --
2 Alabama Crimson Tide Arrow_up 4
3 Michigan Wolverines Arrow_up 5
4 Florida Gators Arrow_up 1
5 Oklahoma St. Cowboys Arrow_up 15
6 South Carolina Gamecocks Arrow_down -3
7 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Arrow_up 14
8 Nebraska Cornhuskers --
9 Oklahoma Sooners Arrow_down -7
10 Clemson Tigers Arrow_up 5
11 South Florida Bulls Arrow_down -1
12 Illinois Fighting Illini Arrow_up 1
13 Stanford Cardinal Arrow_down -6
14 Arizona St. Sun Devils --
15 Texas Longhorns Arrow_down -11
16 Boise St. Broncos Arrow_down -7
17 Virginia Tech Hokies Arrow_up 7
18 Wisconsin Badgers Arrow_down -7
19 USC Trojans --
20 Iowa St. Cyclones Arrow_down -2
21 Vanderbilt Commodores Arrow_down -7
22 Oregon Ducks Arrow_up 1
23 Penn St. Nittany Lions --
24 Houston Cougars --
25 Ohio St. Buckeyes --
Dropouts: West Virginia Mountaineers, Maryland Terrapins, Miami Hurricanes, California Golden Bears, Arkansas Razorbacks
SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »
So I guess the thing that needs the most explanation is Michigan at #3.  This stuff is, as you remember from last week, resume-only.  It's about what you've done, not about how good I think you'll be in the future.  I have my formula and this is what it spit out, and I do fudge for common sense afterward but I couldn't talk myself into moving any of those teams ahead of Michigan.  Maybe this is because I'm overestimating Michigan's opponents, but:

- Notre Dame looks pretty good.
- Maybe I overestimate San Diego State?  But they're 3-1, after all.
- U-M handled Western Michigan, which was thisclose to knocking off #12 Illinois.

I dunno.  It's possible I should be more impressed with slates like South Carolina's and Okie State's.  When it comes to the teams rated 3 through 6, there's definitely room for argument.

There is no room for argument at #1.  My formula gave me Alabama, but screw that.  Any voter that votes for anyone other than LSU #1 - what with wins over Oregon, West Virginia, and Mississippi State - should be ignored and then kicked in the shins.  I will brook no disagreement.

It's early and we still don't know much about the teams around the country, so there's still a ton of mushiness in this ballot.  You don't like something?  Say so.


Anonymous said...

The one thing I had hoped for out of this season was to get some QB stability. Right now, I'm not too enthused with either guy. I don't see ... Marques Hagans yet in Watford. He's young, but he's more flash and dash, and for the Lazor offense, we need a stable field general.

I like Rocco, but he can't have this many picks, this inconsistent play.

I had hoped we'd get some QB stability this year so that, in 2013, we might have a loaded team (defense looks, as of now, potentially solid in 2013, and the other offensive area besides QB of concern for 2013 is on the OL) AND be able to redshirt a potential in-state top QB talent.

I think it's probably time to give Watford a longer leash. His youth, inexperience may mean that you still rotate both, but he should get a bit more PT to see if he can be closer to his cousin. If failing that, then Metheny should be back on the table.

Any news on Strauss' plans?

Brandon said...

Well, I was going to make an argument against michigan, but... it all comes down to how you rank the resumes of the teams they beat and how you rank the resumes of the teams _they_ beat, and... yes, resume ranking this early in the season gets silly, so whatever. I don't really understand vandy though. Yes, they slaughtered ole miss, but ole miss is a bad football team. Yes, they survived UConn, who looks like a big east bottom feeder. And yes, they slaughtered Elon... Elon? And they did all this at home. Not really seeing this as a strong case to rank the historically worst team in the SEC. I'd give Oregon more credit for how the LSU game could've looked without "preseason" mistakes than vandy's whole resume, never mind the beatings they've handed 3 similarly mediocre opponents since.

Brendan said...

I might be overrating UConn and Ole Miss to the benefit of Vandy's resume but honestly, early in the season I tend to give the benefit of the doubt to playing I-A teams over I-AA ones, and BCS teams over non-BCS ones, because of all the haze around the resumes.

One thing I won't ever do is worry about "could've," though. Way too many variables for that. Truthfully, the formula that I use didn't ding Oregon too badly for the LSU loss, and that game will probably improve more as time goes by, especially if Oregon doesn't lose. Their ranking actually has more to do with their best win being the one over Arizona. Sure, Ole Miss is as crappy as Arizona is, but Vandy did a better job against Ole Miss - the point differentials are similar but when that happens I reward strong defensive performances over shootouts.