Tuesday, September 13, 2011

weekend review

One thing that's a little annoying about not having a good football team (or not so perceived, anyway) is that we just played what should have been an instant classic and yet you hardly hear of it.  (The Michigan-Notre Dam game was awesomer, but still.)  The silver lining to all that is: the whole world doesn't have to hear about my terrible prediction record this week.  Let's kick this one off with the prediction summary:

-- At least one UVA running back goes for over 100 yards.
Verdict: Nope.  Didn't happen, even with Perry Jones amassing 22 carries.  Not as dynamic a running game as I'd hoped.

-- At least 55% of UVA's play calls are runs.
Verdict: Yes indeed; the coaches seem intent on establishing the run.  40 rushes to 30 passes.  I promise not to predict this one next week, partly because making the same prediction three weeks in a row is lame and partly because UNC's secondary is kind of crappy.

-- Mike Rocco will complete 70% of his passes, most of which will be short.
Verdict: The main thing here was the 70% number, so this one gets a thumbs down even though there was maybe one long downfield pass all day.  Which was picked.

--  UVA will score at least one touchdown through the air inside the red zone.
Verdict: Kind of?  UVA actually ran very few red zone pass plays, one of which was a swing pass to Perry Jones that hardly counts.  None of them scored.  But Rocco did take to the air to connect with Paul Freedman for the must-make two-point conversion.  Technically I said touchdown, but I think a 2PC is enough in the spirit of things that I'm gonna take credit for it.

-- If he's playing, Colter Phillips will be targeted in the red zone at least once.
Verdict: Null and void; Phillips was unfortunately held out.  Neither Phillips brother saw the field.

-- IU's running backs will average between 4 and 5 yards a carry, but won't break any big ones.
Verdict: Ehhhh....not really the case.  True, they didn't hit any home runs in the running game.  One solid triple, I suppose, with D'Angelo Roberts going for 27 once.  But IU didn't play Darius Willis again, which surprised me, and the running backs were mostly bottled up.  Edward Wright-Baker was a lot more effective than I guessed he'd be, but he didn't make 4 to 5 either and anyway he's not a running back.  Roberts did get to 4; Matt Perez didn't; I'm gonna balance out the 2PC above and call this one a no go.  I expected a lot better out of both teams' rushing games.

-- IU's playcalling split will be at least 55-45 pass and may lean towards 60-40.
Verdict: Not really.  The box score says that IU's play selection was about the same as UVA's - four of seven plays were running plays - but EWB was doing a lot of scrambling and that skewed things in favor of the run.  Still, even if half his runs were called passes, it doesn't reach 55-45.  So no.

-- Edward Wright-Baker throws for 250+ yards, and at least one TD and one INT.
Verdict: He did get the touchdown and interception, but this is really one of those calls where they need to all be true, and he only threw for 171.

-- Final score: UVA 44, IU 23.
Verdict: This one doesn't go into the count for the rest of the predictions, by the way.  But I missed that one by 18 points.  I did say "take the over," so extra credit there (it was 53), but I'm now just 1-1 ATS and 2-0 straight up.

Eight predictions; one canceled, and two correct.  Two of seven.  I know a certain someone who needs to study more.  Eh, no, screw studying, I'll chalk that one up to being a weird game.  But I'm 7 for 16 on the season now.


Now for the high schools.  The Senior Seasons section is where we check in on the doings of UVA's verbal commits.  Big update this week so buckle in:

- Berkeley Prep 38, Victory Christian 12: Demeitre Brim is still out with that broken jaw, but might play next week.  In the meantime, Victory's been using a guy who's never played quarterback before and as you might expect, it's not going well.  They're now 0-2.

- Buford 49, Yulee 7: I think high school games on ESPN are one of the obvious signs of the total collapse of Western civilization, but that didn't stop me from looking at the screen when this game was on in the bar and trying to remember C.J. Moore's number.  Moore ran for two scores, by the way, and the Buford powerhouse is 4-0.  Pay no attention to the Kelvin Rainey in the article.  Yes, there are two of them.  This is the one that isn't going to UVA.  Ours is in Texas.  That's gonna be a fun recruit profile to try and write.

- Calvert Hall 18, DeMatha 0: Michael Moore and the DeMatha defense held Calvert Hall to 81 yards, but the DeMatha offense was miserable.  DeMatha is 1-1.

- St. Joseph 55, Buena Regional 7: Playin receiver, Max Valles chipped in on the scoringfest with a touchdown.  St. Joseph is 1-0.

- Elizabeth 39, Franklin 28: Kye Morgan was productive with 104 total yards rushing and receiving, but a shoulder injury from the summer slowed him down.  Hopefully this isn't a long-term thing, but it sounds like something that could bother him all season.  Franklin is 0-1.

- Central Bucks South 42, Council Rock North 6: Matt Johns threw two touchdowns including a "nifty fade" for CB South in a rout. CB South is 1-1.

- Varina 40, Dinwiddie 14: Maurice Canady with two scores - one on the ground and one through the air - and 139 total yards in a season-opening rout.  Varina is 1-0.

- Bayside 33, Green Run 20: Mark Hall had two sacks in the loss.  Bayside's offensive star was not Anthony Cooper, but 2013 recruit Taquan Mizzell.

- Norfolk Christian 55, Hampton Roads 0: Big day for Wilfred Wahee with three touchdowns, two of them runs of over 60 yards.  NCS is 1-2.

- Hampton 14, I.C. Norcom 13: Jamall Brown's quarterback only completed two(!) passes all day, but one was a 35-yarder to Brown to get Hampton to the six-yard line and put Hampton in position for the game-winning score.

Wayne County 50, Long County 14 (Greyson Lambert; Wayne is 1-1-1.)
Malvern Prep 17, Roman Catholic 0 (Michael Mooney; Malvern is 1-1.)
Houston Stratford 28, Friendswood 13 (Kelvin Rainey; Stratford is 1-2.)
Hermitage 27, Lee-Davis 0 (Andre Miles-Redmond; Hermitage is 1-0.)
Ocean Lakes 33, Cox 21 (Eli Harold; Ocean Lakes is 2-0.)
Landstown 29, Tallwood 6 (Kyle Dockins; Landstown is 2-0.)

This is the first week we've had all our commits in action; it was the season opener for like half of them.  That's it for today, then: it's really late so it's a good thing the recruiting board was motionless all week.

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