Monday, April 11, 2011

weekend review

Thank everything for Steele Stanwick and a slippery Klockner field, or this wouldn't be a very fun weekend review in the lacrosse section. The good news in that department: An 11-10 win in which UVA significantly outplayed UNC for long stretches. The bad: Dipshit brainfarts that put the game severely in jeopardy.

Nobody was immune. Adam Ghitelman's decision to heave the ball upfield with six seconds on the clock in the third quarter led to one Carolina goal four seconds later. Rhamel Bratton tried the slick, low-percentage pass toward the net (and copious defenders) when all that was required was to run around the field for three minutes. Chris LaPierre froze in the face of a double team, which naturally dislodged the ball a split second later. All of these led to goals and heightened blood pressure.

The other thing that kept leading to goals was the defense's decision to defend everyone but the ballcarrier in transition. This is probably brain-damaged coaching rather than brain-damaged playing. Yes, I get that we don't want the ball to be passed to one of UNC's actual stars, but once the guy with the ball gets within eight yards, does it matter if it's Billy Bitter or Billy the Clown? They're going to score from that range, and it's not helpful to let them get there.

That said, transition defense was a major struggle but settled defense, amazingly, was not. My first thought was that the defense had improved just enough to allow Ghitelman to make the saves and look like the goalie he really can be. Later I realized that was wrong: the defense improved a ton. It turned Carolina's offense into our own offense at its most frustrating: ball gets passed around the perimeter until it's turned over or shot harmlessly into the goalie's stick. Credit the switch to the zone, a timely adjustment that was probably forced upon the coaches as much as anything by Matt Lovejoy's season-ending (OH GREAT) surgery. UNC clearly didn't expect that.

Overall a pleasant surprise that shouldn't have been a surprise at all (a reminder that this can still be a dominant team, even against quality opponents, when it wants to be) pockmarked by some monumental insanity. Encouraging; dumb mistakes are more easily fixed than the entire system.

It sets up the Duke game next week for an interesting scenario: because of how the tiebreakers work, UVA is either going to be the #1 seed or the #4 seed in the ACC tournament. Not that it ever matters, but that's the way it breaks this year.

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Just to get this part out of the way: the baseball team lost a game. OH NO. We being UVA fans, no doubt by now the meltdown is well underway. (checking to see.) (not finding anything.) (doublechecking.) (still no.) Huh, OK, so, baseball fans are a patient bunch, or more patient than basketball fans anyway. It helps that that was only the third loss in 34 games and that a series win on the road against a top-ten team that's probably second-best in the conference is a good thing, not a bad thing. And you'd expect this patience from a group of people who enjoy a game in which they have to sometimes wait for the pitcher to get done scratching his ass and horking loogies on the ball ground before he decides he's ready to deliver again. Gives us time to get another beer.

Anyway, even then it's not entirely rainbows. All three losses have been on Sundays, which means Sunday starter Cody Winiarski is in for some scrutiny, especially after a game that saw his ERA jump up nine-tenths of a point. Every time he struggles and every gem that Will Roberts pitches on Tuesdays increases the call for Roberts to be moved to the weekend rotation. Never mind that Winiarski completely shut down both Poly and Maryland; a bad outing against the team with the seventh-best batting average and ninth-best slugging percentage in the country is enough to bring the doubters out of the woodwork. Explaining to people that George Washington bats .254 as a team and is 245th in the country and Georgia Tech bats .330 and is seventh never seems to have any effect; there's still a crowd that wants to see Roberts "get his chance," as if pitching on Tuesdays isn't a chance and as if that means he'll be forgotten about come the postseason and further as if he and Cody and the rest of the pitching staff hadn't been pitching side by side all offseason under the scrutiny of the coaches. RRGGH. Roberts is pitching wonderfully but Winiarski isn't pitching badly.

Anyway. Georgia Tech. Killed 'em. Danny Hultzen was lights the hell out again, allowing one earned run and one walk and striking out 12 on Friday. The bats came alive late, and Danny had his 7th win of the season. The lineup continued to hammer GT pitching for the rest of the weekend, earning a 12-9 win on Saturday and taking a 10-8 loss on Sunday. Even with the loss and a few extra runs for GT hitting, you are directed to be ecstatic about this: GT's starters are not chumps - they are the opposite of chumps - and our bats chased Mark Pope from what had been a pitchers' duel til the 7th, beat Jed Bradley into submission, and rained hits on Buck Farmer, too.

So: 31-3. Two one-run losses and a two-run loss, up against more than a five-run average margin in our wins. This team has never been out of a game. They're loose, enjoying themselves. They've got that swagger, without swaggering. The last time we saw a UVA team rolling like this was probably during the soccer team's run to the national title (not to put any pressure on.) But soccer is the kind of game where any old fluke at any time can explode all your work up to that point. Baseball can be fluky too but you know you're gonna get your nine hacks, every time, and there's something reassuring about that. There's also something reassuring about Danny Hultzen being on your team. Don't forget that.

Sunday, April 10, 2011

lacrosse bracketology

Stuff happened as it does, and your blogger and lacrosse bracketologist took notice and did what he does:


This doesn't represent much of a change. Actually, this week mainly served to solidify the biggest contenders. There's quite a difference between Maryland - the last team in the bracket - and Hokieland, the first four out. The only team to drop out of the at-larges was Penn State, which did itself no favors by losing to Drexel. And it wasn't even enough for Drexel to jump into the bracket.

The other change is just another episode in As The MAAC Turns, and the new occupant of the autobid is.....Detroit? In their third year of D-I lacrosse the Titans can wrap up a spot in the four-team MAAC tourney if they win next week; that win over Siena (which is still by far the best on-paper team in the conference) last week threw the whole conference into chaos. I find this especially awesome on account of that's where I'm starting grad school in less than a month, so.....go Titans.

Here's what happened in last week's games to watch:

- Bucknell 8, Army 7. That about finishes Army, barring an autobid. Bucknell is just outside being able to snag an at-large themselves, so other bubble teams will be pulling for them to win the Patriot League.

- Virginia 11, North Carolina 10. Woot. Tournament is ours; we now play for all-important seeding, which, as you can see by Hopkins "earning" a game against Maryland while Villanova gets Bucknell, means a little something.

- Drexel 14, Penn State 13. Drexel managed to torpedo Penn State and not actually vault into the tourney themselves.

- Denver 12, Duke 9. Ho ho. If there was any doubt about Denver before, there isn't now. They're an almighty lock for an at-large now, and another team for the Drexels of the world to root for.

- Syracuse 7, Princeton 5. Princeton's RPI is amazing for a 2-6 team, so Cuse made out nicely here, and shot down Princeton's outside shot for a miracle run to the tourney. Interesting, the effects of Bill Tierney's jump to Denver.

- Villanova 10, Delaware 4. Dropped the Hens way outside at-large territory, but they're still atop the CAA for now, and with wins over Hofstra and Drexel already they look strong for at least a quality seed in the CAA tourney.

This week's games to watch:

- Cornell at Syracuse. Unlikely Syracuse drops from the 1 seed even with a loss, but a big seeding opportunity for Cornell.

- Virginia at Duke. Seeding only. Duke and UVA traded seeds (#3 and #6) in this week's bracket, and could do so again, but hopefully not.

- Manhattan at Siena. A couple of MAAC contenders battle. It's a hugely wide-open conference and it's for a single bid.

- Drexel at Massachusetts. An opportunity and a must-win for Drexel.

- Canisius at Detroit. MAAC again.

- Johns Hopkins at Maryland. Seeding duel with perhaps some potential to make Maryland's position a little bit precarious.

Saturday, April 9, 2011

uva lacrosse goes like this


.....and still pulls out the win.

So, so thankful that didn't result in a loss because I would've spent the rest of the afternoon punching walls.

Bigger breakdown of the derpgasm on Monday.

Friday, April 8, 2011

game preview: North Carolina


Date/Time: Sat, April 9; 12:00

TV: ESPN

History against the Heels: 44-23

Last matchup: UVA 7, UNC 5; 4/10/10; East Rutherford, NJ

Last game: Maryland 12, UVA 7 (4/2); JHU 10, UNC 9 (4/3)

Opposing blogs: no lax ones that I know of

If a rotten first half against Hopkins and an even worse second half against Maryland hasn't turned this into one of those seasons already, a loss here could do it. Desperation can be a fine motivator, but UNC will draw on it too; neither team wants to fall to 7-4 and the NCAA bubble.

HOW WE CAN WIN

- Maintain long possessions. The off-ball defense being what it is (crummy) I still think the team's #1 problem other than faceoffs is short possessions. Goals are rare enough, but worse, there are too many shots that go straight into the goalies' stick, and possessions become short, one-and-done affairs. Unscientifically I'd say at least two-thirds of our shots the past two games resulted in a lost possession, instead of a goal or being backed up behind the net. Since we can't win faceoffs, we have to make up the time of possession other ways, and give the defense fewer chances to break down.

- Ghitelman stands on his head. He's played well enough, but inevitably these games have gotten to the point where either you rail about his ineffective play (if you've decided to be wrong) or you shrug and say if the goalie is hung out to dry often enough, the goals will eventually follow. Ghitelman's made some really nice saves during this losing streak, and I don't recall many, if any, shots that I thought he should have stopped. But it sure would be nice for him to put together a full 60 minutes of tremenditude and steal a game. Obvious addendum: it sucks that the defense has gotten me to the point where I'm begging the goalie to bail them out.

HOW WE CAN LOSE

You know what, I'm not even gonna bother making a list, because if you've watched the past couple games you know the answer already. Faceoff ineptitude, sloppy offense, sacrifice of the team in favor of the individual. The usual.

HOW THE GAME WILL GO

The last two debacles pretty much stripped me of any confidence I had going into this one. Then again, Carolina has been eminently beatable themselves this year. The transitive property of sports is no help as usual: they beat Maryland, which beat UVA; UVA beat Ohio State which beat UNC. The game's at home, so that's something, and in a more appropriate lacrosse atmosphere than Scott Stadium. So that's something too, I hope. I'd be stupid to try and make a prediction, though. We'll win again when we decide we want to. I have no idea whether that's happened or not.

Thursday, April 7, 2011

series preview: Georgia Tech


Date/Time: April 8-10; 7:00, 6:00, 12:00

TV: none

History against the Jackets: 39-62-2

Last matchup: UVA 2-1 series win (7-4, 7-9, 9-1)

Last game: UVA 2, Radford 0 (4/5); Kennesaw St. 7, GT 6 (4/5)

Last weekend: UVA swept VT; GT 2-1 over Duke

National rankings:

Baseball America: UVA #2; GT #14
Collegiate Baseball: UVA #1; GT #8
NCBWA: UVA #2; GT #14
Perfect Game: UVA #2; GT #5
Coaches: UVA #2; GT #11
Composite: UVA #2; GT #10

Opposing blogs: From The Rumble Seat

It's a crime this isn't on TV. The biggest matchup of the week in college baseball. Let's get this out there right now: Statistically, Georgia Tech is the more imposing team. The difference is in the schedules, where the mightiest thing Tech has had to deal with is Miami and their anemic lineup, and then maybe St. John's, a middling Big East squad. That hasn't stopped them from achieving a #5 ranking in the RPI.

Tradition dictates that GT games are preceded by skull sessions with the fellows at From The Rumble Seat, so here is some stuff you need to know, straight from the Bird's mouth. The other half is here.

1. Last year GT had one of the most powerful offenses in the nation. Have the new bats dulled the approach at all, or had any effect on GT's success?

Matt Skole was probably every Tech baseball fan's preseason MVP but freshman Kyle Wren and junior Jake Davies have exploded onto the scene in 2011. Both are batting over 0.400. The team as a whole is batting 0.331 and has belted 18 homers against some fairly decent early season competition. I honestly think the average Tech fan thought this would be a rebuilding year but the team has proven it to be anything but.

Danny Hall's approach has always been: "average to good pitching but carry a big stick." GT has the ACC's #1 hitters in terms of doubles, triples, and home runs in ACC play.

2. How is the support from GT fans for their baseball team? Should we expect a big crowd this weekend?

Diehard Tech beesball fans wish more fans would attend games but unfortunately Tech baseball doesn't get the attendance that a top 10 program deserves. UVA will probably garner a good showing as long as the weather holds. Typically, Tech's best attendance is against the dogs of Athens, Clemson, FSU, and other assorted instate foes. ACC teams generally bring in a good crowd. Ranked ACC teams like UVA, Miami, and UNC usually generate some buzz and you'll see a somewhat larger crowd on Friday nights and Saturdays.

3. How long will Danny Hall be coaching? What's the outlook after he retires?

Jim Morris of Miami was Tech's previous head coach and he's 6 years older than Hall. So I'll take the easy answer. When Morris retires, Hall will retire 6 years later. I don't foresee Hall leaving Tech anytime soon. He's got ties to the Midwest and they haven't even started playing college baseball North of Tennessee yet. I don't see any hometown team pulling Hall away before he retires at Tech.

The oulook after Hall leaves is generally pleasant. Danny always says that he gets the big time bats because kids grow up watching the Braves in the Southeast...there aren't football/hoops teams on TV every day. Kids want to be Atlanta Braves around Atlanta. The success in the 90's alongside the TBS deal made the Braves a fixture in every Southern family's home from 1991-2008. Around Georgia, baseball is major business and the kids that are produced from Atlanta, Marietta, Valdosta, Macon, and Savannah form the backbone of a home run hitting machine that is Danny Hall's squad.

4. GT appears to lean heavily on just a couple of pitchers out of the bullpen. Is it because of a thin pen, or starters going deep into their games? Should UVA fans take it as a good sign when Tech goes to the bullpen considering they've been saddled with four of Tech's six losses? (edit: make that five of seven after the result this Tuesday.)

Mark Pope is the king of the pen. He goes pretty deep into games. He's already pitched three complete games and is throwing out an astounding 0.66 ERA this season. Pope earned his stripes in 2010 as the 4th starter dominating every weekday opponent with ease. Tech swept UGA in 2010 behind three stellar Pope performances.

And the bullpen depth is typical of a Danny Hall rotations. There aren't any particularly dominating relievers but the starters haven't really faced a good hitting team that can consistently reach base like UVA.

Concerning the losses, I think the bullpen getting the losses is also a function of Hall's approach to college baseball. He's the opposite of O'Conner. He wants a runner on base for the pitcher to worry about and the batter gets the greenlight. Hence, Tech's 18 homers.

5. Your turn for a prediction.

I'm worried Tech will lose the series 1-2. I think we'll get a good performance from Pope because he doesn't go for strikeouts, Pope wants outs. Pope's style keeps runners off base. Jed Bradley and Buck Farmer should give Tech solid performances but I'm concerned Tech's young bats won't be able to win a 3-2 or 2-1 type game.

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So what to make of this Georgia Tech squad, a major contender for the ACC crown and possible super-regional host? It always starts with their bats. It especially starts with their left-handed bats. Tech's ballfield is average sized except to the right-center power alley, where it's a meager 345-350 feet. That's bandboxy. And four of Tech's regulars bat left-handed. Their four best, actually: sluggers Matt Skole, Jake Davies, and Daniel Palka account for 14 of Tech's 18 home runs, and CF Kyle Wren, another lefty, is batting .422. They'll be joined on Saturday and Sunday against our right-handed pitching by switch-hitting Brandon Thomas, giving Tech five of nine positions in the order that bat left-handed and aim for that short fence.

The good news here is that GT also uses two righty starters, and UVA is by no means short on left-handed hitting.

And speaking of those starters, yes. Ace righty Deck McGuire is in the pros now, but the duel between Danny the Destroyer (make that "National Midseason Player of the Year" Danny the Destroyer) and GT's Mark Pope should be just as entertaining. It might be better; last year's Hultzen-McGuire showdown was a dud as neither was on their game. Pope sports a sparkling 0.66 ERA and has pitched three complete games. After him, Tech will throw Jed Bradley and then Buck Farmer, both also pitching exceedingly well. If both teams didn't have such good hitting, the pitching would provide enough conversation as it is. But GT happens to be batting .331 as a team according to the NCAA, good for 7th in the country. UVA, on the other hand, has allowed opponents to bat just .200, so something's gotta give.

Where, then, is the weak point? GT hasn't blown past the competition like these stats say they should. They've struggled, particularly in weekday games, losing contests to the likes of Mercer, Kennesaw State, and Georgia Southern. The answer: bullpen. Statistically they seem fine, but it's a rather thin pen. Pope pitches deep into games (he averages 7 innings even in his non-complete games) so the pen doesn't get much use on Fridays; elsewise they lean mainly on two pitchers, Luke Bard and Dusty Isaacs, both rightys. Bard is allowing opponents a .260 batting average and has been saddled with two losses, including the Kennesaw State one this Tuesday. Isaacs also has a loss, and the pen has five overall. Brian O'Connor's preferred style of play is the perfect weapon here: he loves wearing down opposing starters with walks and parades of baserunners. The sooner we get to the bullpen, the better.

The other way to attack GT goes hand-in-hand with that one: put the ball into play. This is a shaky glove squad, giving up 37 unearned runs all year, an average of more than one a game. They're outside the top 100 in NCAA fielding percentage. What's more, one of the biggest culprits is third baseman Skole, who's big and not very mobile and has seven errors on the season already. (Last year he had 18 for a miserable .896 FP.) Will the bunt sign be on? Bet on it. UVA will be bunting for hits, bunting in hopes of an error, and bunting to move the runners.

Either team would be thrilled with a 2-1 series victory here. GT will want to launch baseballs over the right field fence, and UVA will look to turn the weekend into a question of who can do the little things better. Because of tiebreakers, the winner in a 2-1 series essentially gets a two-game lead on the loser, and this is for the division. Division winners get the top two slots in the ACC tournament, and since nobody in the Atlantic plays any damn baseball except for FSU, at stake here is FSU-avoidance. Winner is fast-tracked to a 1-seed, loser has to get some help to avoid a 3-seed. It's a big thing.

The rest of the ACC this weekend:

North Carolina at Florida State
NC State at Miami; these two series might just determine once and for all if the Atlantic Divison ought to be dumped into the eponymous ocean. This matches the two best teams in the Atlantic against the Coastal's two middle-runners that wouldn't be anywhere near the middle in the opposite division.
Boston College at Duke; might as well include this series in the above category too, except now you're talking about a Coastal bottom-feeder against an Atlantic "contender." But Duke's schedule so far hasn't been kind and they could surprise some people here.
Maryland at Clemson; if Clemson ever wants to get back on track to contention, this is their chance. If they can't win two of three here, then forget about them at all, and they really need a sweep.
Virginia Tech at Wake Forest; CRIPPLE FIGHT! TIMMAH!

Wednesday, April 6, 2011

recruiting board update of prescience

Minor housekeeping to be done on the recruiting board, and then you get to hear all about the three caballeros and their Harrisonburg adventures. Today is set aside for me to brag about my forecasting abilities.

Board here; map here. Updates:

- ATH Germone Hopper and LB Timothy Cole committed to places not named UVA, so I'd remove them, except I already did. I'm a smart one that way. Clemson and Texas, respectively, if you're wondering.

- S Alex Carter also committed somewhere not named UVA (Stanford) so he too is gone.

- Moved WR Eugene Lewis and TE Joshua Parris from green to yellow.

- Moved DT Roderick Chungong and MLB Kaiwan Lewis from yellow to green.

- Moved OL Brock Stadnik from yellow to red.

- Added OG Andre Miles-Redmond to green.

Also, the board is starting to become a lot more populated with stars.

Both Scout and 24/7 came out with their early national lists this past week. Rivals probably won't be til May and as I recall ESPN waits til early June. With Scout it's a list of 300 and 24/7, naturally, lists 247 players. Here are the ones on the recruiting board:

Scout 300:
#6 - DE Noah Spence (red)
#14 - DT Eddie Goldman (red)
#25 - QB Zeke Pike (red)
#31 - WR Leonte Carroo (red)
#44 - RB Wes Brown (green)
#47 - CB Ronald Darby (red)
#54 - CB Geno Smith (red)
#63 - OT Brock Stadnik (red)
#87 - WR Eugene Lewis (yellow)
#103 - LB Noor Davis (yellow)
#135 - OLB Eli Harold (green)
#161 - MLB Kaiwan Lewis (green)
#163 - QB Devin Fuller (red)
#186 - DE Ken Ekanem (yellow)
#195 - DT Korren Kirven (red)
#205 - MLB Quanzell Lambert (yellow)
#288 - WR Joel Caleb (yellow)
#298 - S C.J. Prosise (green)

Positions are as listed by Scout, which is always the least accurate of all the services. That's a longish list, but don't get excited. Eight are red and most of those are getting close to being dropped right off the list. Barring any shockers the only red names on that list that are remotely likely to move up in the next few weeks are Fuller and Goldman and maybe Kirven. I'm close to moving Ekanem down from yellow too, as well as Brown to yellow from green. Of the names on that list, the ones that should pique your interest the most for now are Harold, K. Lewis, and Prosise.

Caleb, by the way, is quite a surprise at just 288 considering how many people are talking him up for top prospect in the Commonwealth.

Now for the 24/7 247. Or whatever name it's supposed to go by.

#3 - DT Eddie Goldman (red)
#17 - ATH Devin Fuller (red)
#18 - QB Zeke Pike (red)
#29 - CB Geno Smith (red)
#32 - WDE Noah Spence (red)
#34 - OLB Noor Davis (yellow)
#38 - WDE Eli Harold (green)
#55 - WR Joel Caleb (yellow)
#63 - DT Korren Kirven (red)
#64 - ATH Ronald Darby (red)
#72 - OT Brock Stadnik (red)
#97 - ILB Kwontie Moore (blue)
#125 - SDE Michael Moore (blue)
#127 - OLB Quanzell Lambert (yellow)
#139 - OLB Deontay McManus (yellow)
#150 - ATH Cyrus Jones (yellow)
#159 - WDE Ken Ekanem (yellow)
#168 - WR Canaan Severin (yellow)
#171 - RB Wes Brown (green)
#200 - OT Greg Pyke (red)
#202 - OT Adam Bisnowaty (green)
#219 - WR Eugene Lewis (yellow)
#220 - WR Anthony Cooper (blue)
#236 - DT Courtnye Wynn (blue)
#240 - ILB Kaiwan Lewis (green)
#245 - WR Leonte Carroo (red)

Again, positions as listed on the site. This is a much more Virginia-friendly list. If you're the optimistic type you're advised to use this one. Not just players UVA is "in on," there are four here who I do think will be Hoos (both Moores, Cooper, and Wynn) and a few other names to follow with great interest (Harold, Bisnowaty, K. Lewis.) This could be the result of the fact that 24/7 doesn't have affiliates for every team out there yet but does have a UVA affiliate.

Anyway, if that list holds, UVA is set up very well for a solid national ranking from at least one of the sites.

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NC State hired former Alabama coach Mark Gottfried to coach their basketball team, which I'm personally really disappointed about because I don't have even the slightest opinion about that. That leaves just one ACC program left that's looking for a coach, which is Miami after Frank Haith surprisingly jumped ship to Missouri. Haith was on the bottom tier of coaches in the league, but it's only about 50/50 they'll improve on him this late in the process.

So that leaves our jolly crew of Harrisonburg revelers: Ausar Walcott, Mike Price, and Devin Wallace, as you'll recall, who barged into a party one day in January and started harshing everyone's mellow by yelling and throwing punches. They chose this course of action because somebody was hollering racial slurs at them. You stay classy, JMU.

I told you back then that Racist Guy would be in hot water if he were identified, and lo and behold, he was and is. As well he should. Score one for me. I said also that the felony charges would disappear and they'd each get slapped with a misdemeanor or two after their lawyers worked out a deal, and score two for me because that's the way it went down.

So Walcott is free and clear in the eyes of the law and Price and Wallace have a year of probation each. None of them are free and clear in the eyes of the London; all remain suspended and probably will until semester grades are out. Many Hoo fans are of the opinion Walcott should be reinstated since he was cleared by the courts, but that's crap: just because he was found to have committed no crime doesn't mean he was conducting himself within the bounds of expectations for a UVA football players. I'm still of the opinion Wallace should be gone now that a conviction has been reached, as punishment for lying by omission to London about his previous run-in with the law. But I'm perfectly fine with continuing Walcott's suspension until he jumps through his hoops. Maybe there are fewer hoops since he apparently had the good sense not to throw a punch, but he still wasn't conducting himself professionally at all.

And - not at all condoning Price's decision to slug the 165-pound Nathan Yowell, who was being a twerp for no good reason other than an overabundance of Natty Light - but I'll bet Yowell never, ever again mouths off to three pissed-off football players, and has learned the definition of "middleweight."

Tuesday, April 5, 2011

the recruit: Evan Nolte

Name: Evan Nolte
Position: SF
Hometown: Alpharetta, GA
School: Milton
Height: 6'7"
Weight: 195

ESPN: 94; four stars; #14 SF; US #53
Rivals: four stars; #15 SF; US #59
Scout: four stars; #15 SF; US #67

Other offers: Ohio State, Florida, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Georgia, Alabama, Clemson, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Wake Forest, Auburn, others

Let's start with a little exercise. Here are some excerpts from ESPN's review of Player A:

A legitimate 6'7 wing who has range out to 25-plus feet; there is no question he stretches the defense better than most ... will be deadly in UVA's structure ... When opponents force him to dribble he struggles to make a teammate better with a drive and kick for an open shot ... His ability to shoot the ball alone makes him a hot commodity.

And another one for Player B:

A long and lean combo wing ... a very good shooter. He has range to 25 feet ... He is not great at creating for himself ... He is a solid prospect that should do well at Virginia as a player that can stretch the defense.

No, they're not technically the same player. But I think it's a tribute to Evan Nolte that Tony Bennett would press for and take a commitment from Nolte (Player A) with Paul Jesperson (Player B) set to arrive next year. Let's take that one step further: According to Nolte's high school coach, he was Tony Bennett's #1 target.

And well he might be. Nolte isn't quite the highest-rated recruit Bennett's brought to UVA (depending on where you look, KT Harrell was rated a little higher) but you won't find a bigger target in Bennett's three years of recruiting. Nolte's Milton team plays in Georgia's 5A classification, the highest level, and not only are they a powerhouse (the 2010 state champion and 2011 runners-up) but Nolte's teammates are going everywhere for college: Julian Royal to GT, Dai-Jon Parker to Vanderbilt, Shannon Scott to Ohio State, Shaquille Johnson to Auburn. Nolte's as high-profile a recruit as we might ever land, and almost every high-major program in the South offered him. Even Duke was interested, and they were close to offering, and it's a good thing they didn't because Nolte grew up a Duke fan. Fortunately, we have meds for that.

Nolte is the second recruit in as many years to come out of metro Atlanta to Virginia, and his school's 5A classification, as opposed to Malcolm Brogdon and Greater Atlanta Christian playing in 2A, mean no questions about inferior competition. (Although, Brogdon earning all-class POY honors from the AJC should help put that stuff to bed as well.) Nolte's guru ratings are amazingly consistent; almost identical, in fact. Which is encouraging since they're so high.

Some fret about the redundancy here, since Nolte is so similar to Jesperson, and Will Regan and Joe Harris also have some overlap in their skill sets. There's much need for a point guard, of course, and this does mean that Bennett will have to be a little more judicious in choosing one. But if you're debating with yourself about whether it's a good thing to have so many of the same kind of player on the team, stop it. It's a good thing to have talent, and Nolte's the kind you just don't turn down. You can never have too many shooters, anyway. Nobody ever said they wanted fewer guys on the court that can shoot. By the time Nolte arrives there should be enough bigs in the program that he won't have to slide down and play the four, the way Joe Harris has had to at times, so a pair of 6'7" small forwards - not to mention the 6'6" Harris at the two - means this will be a big lineup. Other than Jontel Evans, the 2012-2013 lineup currently features nobody smaller than 6'4". That may change depending on the PG situation, but still. UVA will be rolling out some big teams with a lot of shooting range.

There are still two scholarships for the 2012 class if Bennett wants to use 'em. One might go to a transfer player (who would join the team on the court for the 2012-2013 season), and the other, if used, to a point guard. The question is how much Bennett likes the 2013 recruiting class, because if both available 2012 slots are taken then there's room for just one in that class since Jontel Evans is the only senior that year. I lean toward thinking that the most likely course of action is to take a transfer and no more 2012 freshmen, but it all depends on Bennett's evaluations of the available players. Still very much up in the air.

Monday, April 4, 2011

spring game and weekend review

I probably should write this stuff sooner, because the spring game is already floating out of my head. That's what happens when nothing at all stands out. I don't know about the event, but the game was awful. Yes, awful. I blame the lack of receivers; the offenses couldn't open anything up because the defenses had absolutely no trouble covering the bench-warming receivers in single coverage. So the run looked as if it was always going up against an eight-man front.

I'd like to say, for example, that Rijo Walker had an excellent game, and truthfully he might well be ready to leapfrog the competition and join Chase Minnifield as a starter. But how ready is he, really, when the best we've seen is against a sixth-string receiver? So, I don't feel comfortable making any observations whatsoever about the defense.

So we'll stick to the quarterbacks. It was disconcerting watching them flip back and forth between teams. Rosters were handed out that had two on one team and two on another, but what we got was the all-time-QB look that I was afraid of. Did we learn anything, though? Plenty, actually. Mike London will insist from now til September that there's no hierarchy, the depth chart is filled with ORs, that it's a competition to the end. And it is a competition, but one in which Mike Rocco has the clear advantage for now. We know this because Rocco took easily the most snaps in this game. The order looks like Rocco, Strauss, Metheny, Watford.

None of the quarterbacks were consistent. The lack of excitement in the game can be pinned on the lack of receivers, but not the QB inconsistency. All of them, even Watford, showed they can at least be functional if called upon. But most of them had at least one ill-advised throw. Rocco and Strauss each threw a pick that should never have happened, and Rocco would've had at least one more if Steve Greer had any hands. Rocco's inaccuracy on short throws cost at least 20 yards overall, not counting the yards that might've been picked up after first downs that didn't happen. Strauss actually looked like the most accurate thrower, but his pick was also the worst. Metheny didn't make many mistakes, but needed to add zip to his throws.

There were some quality throws, though, too. Everyone but Watford picked up a big chunk of yards on more than one occasion with a well-placed downfield throw. Strauss had the throw of the day, nailing walk-on receiver Johnny Pickett in perfect stride for a big gain. I would guess that the QB situation isn't actually going to be much worse than last year, but with growing pains and the potential to be better by November.

Anyone else catch my eye? Khalek Shepherd was the surprise of the day with some decent gains at running back and a very nice kick return. Clearly outplayed Kevin Parks, who had major ball control issues. Looked like nerves, honestly. But as I've said, there's a ton of playing time at stake at tailback alongside Perry Jones (who looked good catching the ball on the occasions it wasn't thrown two feet away from where it should) and Shepherd just took a big step toward claiming some.

Speaking of Jones, how about the team captaincy in his third year in the program? I think we should expect big things from this kid.

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I have to keep reminding myself that it's only two losses for the lacrosse team (in a row, that is) but it feels like we haven't won all season. That kind of a pathetic second-half effort against Maryland no less will give you that ugly feeling in the gut. Did anyone play well? Adam Ghitelman, for a half, but the off-ball defense is so poor that opposing attackers are so open that no save is even possible, hurting his numbers. On-ball defense wasn't too bad. Chris LaPierre seems to be the only guy not needing a written invitation to get a ground ball.

Other than that, pfeh. There's an ongoing debate that crops up every now and again about whether our years-long inability to win a single damn faceoff is poor coaching or poor recruiting, and with as many faceoff violations as I've seen go against UVA and as few on other teams, I've decided I'm on the "coaching" side.

And don't even get me started on Shamel Bratton. If he's going to get his dumb ass suspended for the second time this season - indefinitely this time - I don't want to see him on the sideline having a merry old time laughing it up. It doesn't take a crotchety old bastard to be pissed off about that. If Shamel's played his last game in a UVA uniform then it might very well be a short season, and that shouldn't mean happy-time.

It sucks to lose, given the expectations this program has built up, but it's not the end of the world. There are at least three more chances to beat someone - anyone - in the ACC, and there's Penn too. It's easy to feel like the wheels are coming off, and they might be. But they might not.

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In case they are, let's ramp up the baseball talk. Now here is a team getting it done. VT apologists - if there are any that still care about baseball given their team's losing record - that the reason for their struggles is because they've lost so many players to graduation. And so they have. I said as much in the preview. But I didn't see Tyler Cannon, Jarrett Parker, Robert Morey, Franco Valdes, Dan Grovatt, Phil Gosselin, or Kevin Arico anywhere in Blacksburg for the series this weekend, and the 37-8 difference in runs is the difference between a program and a fleeting blip.

The UVA nine was so dominant this weekend that Brian O'Connor only threw closer Branden Kline in the ninth inning of Sunday's game for the sake of it. Gotta get the man some work or he'll be rusty. Tech scored just two runs off UVA starters all weekend, and here's the crazy stat: all their eight runs came off home runs, while UVA hit just one all weekend - David Coleman went yard in a 4-for-5, 5 RBI effort on Saturday, three of those ribbies as a result of the moon shot. This is why O'Connor shuns the home run and prefers to play Oakball.

The sweep of Tech gives the Hoos an astounding 28-2 record after 30 games. Everyone - everyone - is playing well. The team is absolutely humming along, just in time for the showdown of the year next weekend in Atlanta. Georgia Tech is 23-6 and tied with UVA at 11-1 atop the Coastal standings. (It continues to be totally baffling as to why there are divisions. They playin' some shit baseball in the Atlantic.)

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News section!

- We got us a hoops commitment on Friday! Score-o. Evan Nolte is a unanimous four-star and one of the top-rated recruits Tony Bennett's ever picked up for UVA. Like Malcolm Brogdon, he's from Atlanta. Nolte is a player very similar to Paul Jesperson, who'll join the program in the fall. That gives us an overabundance of 2-3-maybe-four-ish tweener types (wings, they're often called, but I don't care for thet term because it's overused) but Nolte is the kind of guy you bring in if you can and work the system to make it fit. More about him tomorrow or Wednesday.

- NC State still doesn't have a coach, and their search has officially dragged to the point where it seems obvious that whoever is hired is like the ninth choice. They're not close. Remember, Tony Bennett was announced on March 31, and that was after a week of cloak-and-dagger shit that had the whole fanbase in a frenzy. Shaka Smart turned them down, and who knows who else has? Maryland blogger Testudo Times can be forgiven for being a Maryland blogger for this well-timed (ahem) nugget of info on their search.

- Speaking of Maryland, they just became a little less of a threat on the recruiting trail this year. Perfect timing since we're recruiting against a new regime, which is always tricky. They got bit by the APR bug and will forfeit three football scholarships. Per Testudo Times that'll take effect after this year, meaning the impact is on the 2012 recruiting class. That's not an insignificant thing in a coach's first year when he wants to build a huge class.

- Could this happen? A neutral-site hoops doubleheader in Richmond with UVA, VT, VCU, and ODU? It would be fun right here to bring up Seth Greenberg's sniveling about ODU not being the kind of school that would help VT "grow a brand" but the truth is, such an event would be a much bigger deal for VCU and ODU than for the two ACC schools. Hence the line about "some concerns." If either Tech or UVA want any instate recruits, it's not really in their interest to try to give them the big-time basketball pitch after losing to VCU. I hate to say it but Greenberg, for all his gum-flapping about everything else, is right: Old Dominion would stand to gain a lot more from a game against UVA or Tech than we would. Mid-majors like to complain about the big boys refusing to play them, but the fact is they have to find a way to make it worth the big boys' while to do so - kind of like how Boise State agreed to come to Landover, MD to play VT in football - because you know they'll celebrate like lottery winners if they win, while the big-boy-turned-victim looks a huge fool.

Also a concern: please don't play a hockey game at the Coliseum the day of because our memories of the last time that happened are lousy.

Sunday, April 3, 2011

lacrosse bracketology

A little late this week because of the lateness of the Sunday games; the Big City Classic (have I mentioned this rule of thumb yet? Any time you see a competition with the word "Classic" in its name, it is anything but) didn't start its last game til 6:30. Here's this week's update:

Notes:

- Ugh. Maryland's RPI is ass and yes, losing that game knocked us three pegs down. As long as we beat Penn after the ACC tournament I don't think we can fall completely out of the bracket but you never know. At least one more win besides that would sure put my mind at ease. It'd be nice to be reminded UVA can still beat anyone.

- Hofstra's been hanging out on the bubble all this time and they're a little bit victimized by Penn State not having the autobid. Now they're in the Hokie Chair. PSU can earn a tenuous spot on their own merits. I'm not sure that lasts, but that's how it is for now.

- Only one travel adjustment: flip-flopping Delaware and Penn State.

- Second week in a row with a new and strange face on Syracuse's sacrificial altar. That's the MAAC for you. You'd think it'd be Siena's to lose but they suffered a terrible loss this week - to Detroit at home - and now it's anyone's conference.

- Despite what it might look like, the "next four out" teams really aren't that close.

The games to watch this week:

- Bucknell at Army. Army can't get in the tournament without the autobid, and Bucknell can, but this game could change that. Or Army can be put away once and for all til the Patriot tournament.

- North Carolina at Virginia. Loser to the bubble. Winner probably gets their name in stone for the tourney.

- Drexel at Penn State. CAA bubble battle. PSU isn't so far ahead of Drexel that a loss can't flip-flop them in the pecking order, but, like Bucknell-Army, a loss for Drexel might put them out of reach.

- Denver at Duke. Mostly for seeding, as Denver isn't likely to let go of the ECAC and can probably get in without the autobid anyway.

- Syracuse at Princeton. The RPI looooooves Princeton despite their piteous 2-5 record. Cuse is the clear and obvious #1 and everyone knows it, but they haven't breezed, and Princeton can still make a miracle run for the tournament if they can beat the Cuse at home.

- Delaware at Villanova. Hofstra's got to be rooting hard against the Hens despite sharing a conference. In the event neither wins the CAA, they'll be bubble buddies. Nova's profile is strong and can get stronger here.

Friday, April 1, 2011

game preview: Virginia

Date/Time: April 2; 2:00ish

TV: ESPN3; UVA video

History against the Hoos: Undefeated. We beat ourselves all the time. Remember Duke?

Last matchup: Never.

Last week: More practice.

Line: uhhhhhhhh wut?

Opposing blogs: From Old Virginia

Injury report: Landon Bradley is out, along with every wide receiver ever.

Yes, it's Hit A Twerp With A Stick Week, and the big day is tomorrow. At 12 noon there will be a gladiator show in which captured Maryland Terrapins are set loose on the Scott Stadium turf and a few lucky students (selected via draw) are allowed to run around whacking them with huge sticks. Fans will be allowed to vote on how much Maryland sucks. Thumbs up for A Lot, thumbs down for A Little Less, But Still.

Following the entertainment is the football spring game. A real spring game, Orange vs. Blue style. Plus, it's a big recruiting weekend, the biggest of the year so far. A lot of prospects will be in town, and not just "oh we're still evaluating you" prospects. Some four-star types. If any one of them commits it would be huge, but even if not these are all guys who are seriously, seriously considering UVA. There's a real chance to make a big, big impression.

Though it'll be a real game with scoreboards and everything, nobody knows much about how the teams'll look except for one's orange and one's blue. Usually, coaches put the first-team offense and second-team defense on one team and fill out the other accordingly so that first-teamers can play against first-teamers and second-teamers against second. In all likelihood that'll be the way things go, and I hope it is because then the coaches' hand will be tipped a little bit regarding quarterbacks. Because of that, it very well might be different - captains choose up sides or something.

Position-by-position is the norm around here, so despite the date that's how we'll roll again. Here's what to be looking for:

QUARTERBACKS

My best guess for the format is that first and second teams will be split up as above, but quarterbacks will rotate. Think back to the playground when you had all-time QBs. The coaches said that they hoped to break out two from the pack by the end of spring, and have a 1, 1a, 3, and a scout-teamer. The scout-teamer is David Watford, we know that much. Way of things as a true freshman, even when your competition isn't that much older. But between Mike Rocco, Ross Metheny, and Michael Strauss, who knows? If the quarterbacks are included in the first/second team split, it'll tell us more than weeks of pestering by reporters could ever squeeze out of London. But I'm not optimistic they will.

WIDE RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS

There are no receivers. I mean damn. Kris Burd and Tim Smith sat out spring practice and Matt Snyder and Bobby Smith got hurt during. That leaves Ray Keys, Kevin Royal, Miles Gooch, and E.J. Scott. That's it. Obviously there won't be too many three-receiver sets, unless the WRs join the QBs as all-time rotators. If it's split into first and second teams, I'd guess Keys and Scott will be the first squad and Gooch and Royal the second, but none of them are likely to be regulars. You're looking for a breakout performance because no matter who's defending them they'll be higher on the depth chart. If anyone opens eyes at receiver it'll be a nice bonus for the fall when the competition heats up.

As for tight end, there's a bigger stable of those than receivers. The veterans are Colter Phillips and Paul Freedman. Those two are the clear 1 and 2 on the pecking order, and the second-team operation should give one of Jeremiah Mathis, Jake McGee, and Zach Swanson a terrific opportunity to separate themselves, because the third tight end will figure heavily in the fall too.

RUNNING BACKS

Perry Jones is the first-stringer, and after that: ??? This is a thin team at tailback, and it's waiting for someone to step up and seize the day. Kevin Parks and Khalek Shepherd will be in fierce competition here, because a lot of playing time is at stake. Jones is only half the equation. It's a pity Clifton Richardson wasn't an early enrollee because I'd love to see him on that field.

Fullback is pretty set with two seniors at the position, who'll probably be on different teams.

OFFENSIVE LINE

Ah, very interesting. Mike Price, the backup center, was one of the Harrisonburg fools, so he's not participating, meaning Cody Wallace will likely be introduced to fans as the backup center behind Anthony Mihota. Where Morgan Moses lines up will be a source of interest too - probably at first-string tackle opposite Oday Aboushi, with Landon Bradley still out. Things are a little thin on the line without Price or Aaron Van Kuiken, out with injury as well, so walk-ons will feature heavily - perhaps even Billy Cuffee, returning to the team after a year's absence. Reinforcements are on their way in the fall, but that's not going to help the depth for the spring where you'll need the equivalent of a full three-deep.

DEFENSIVE LINE

Cam Johnson is supposedly a terror, so this is a good time to show it. He's a guy I'm hoping will play a starring role. It'll be interesting to see who lines up opposite him. Might be Billy Schautz or even Brent Urban, but I'm betting on that being the second-team pairing and Jake Snyder getting the call for the starters.

There aren't many DT's listed on the roster, so it's probably safe to assume some so-listed DEs are set to shuffle inside. Matt Conrath, for example, is again listed as a DE after playing inside last year, and the same for Will Hill. One guy who's definitely a DT is big Chris Brathwaite, who I hope will play next to Nick Jenkins and have a huge day. He's probably not the biggest star of the defensive line but he's the one I'm most eager to see.

LINEBACKERS

Look for a shuffled lineup here, especially with the second of the Harrisonburg crew, Ausar Walcott, also suspended. The starting three is likely Aaron Taliaferro on the strong side, Steve Greer in the middle, and Laroy Reynolds on the weak side. They could be pushed hard by the second three, though: respectively, Tucker Windle, Henry Coley, and Daquan Romero. Windle is a junior but hasn't got much use, and the spring game will be the debutante party for the other two.

SECONDARY

We're definitely dipping into the walk-ons here. There's a full first and second team, but only just barely. Rodney McLeod and Corey Mosley make up the starting safety tandem, and Chase Minnifield is one of the starting corners. Minus Dom Joseph, the other will probably be Devin Wallace, but it's not unthinkable that Rijo Walker might have passed up Wallace on the depth chart.

At second string, this is a great chance to see what walk-on speed burner Drequan Hoskey can do. Hoskey runs track and dressed for most of last year's games. As a redshirt freshman who is more of a track star than a football star, he's not going to bump any of the other leaders off the depth chart, but he's one to keep an eye on.

At safety, LoVante' Battle returns from being a linebacker, so the depth situation is helped somewhat. He and Pablo Alvarez - listed at safety, where I've always thought he was a better fit, after being a cornerback last year - are the clear second string.

SPECIALISTS

Robert Randolph doesn't have the leg that Chris Hinkebein does, but he's clearly the more accurate kicker. Nobody's a threat to unseat Jimmy Howell as the punter because nobody else exists on the roster, but Hinkebein may end up punting once or twice just for giggles. Or he may not. Let's just hope Howell doesn't get hurt.

I'll be extremely interested to see who returns punts and kicks - probably Minnifield and Perry Jones, maybe E.J. Scott - but even so it'll probably be rendered moot since a lot of the best candidates to do so are arriving in the fall.

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So there's a lot to watch, but I'd say nothing more important - besides the quarterbacks - than the recruiting ticker. Position battles aren't going to be decided much here because the incoming class is so huge that the players that are here are, by themselves, barely enough to make a full two-deep. And of course the usual caveat remains about someone playing great meaning someone else playing badly. Still, I'm excited just to see a proper game and not just a glorified walkthrough, and even more so that the admin is getting on the exposure train and putting it online.