midseason review

The sun is dark in my eyes and I relish neither the taste of food nor the release of sleep, yet we must press on with duties regardless.  Here we are halfway through the football season, and it's time to take stock of what's been going on.  The traditional way is position by position, and why break with tradition?

-- Quarterback

Grade: D+

On purpose, I didn't do anything resembling a best-case-worst-case thing for the positional previews this year, after having done that for a few years running.  (I found that in many cases I wasn't being imaginative enough on what constituted a worst case.)  Had I done so, I'd probably have found that what's going on under center these days is pretty close to whatever worst-case scenario I could've dreamed up.

David Watford is saved from a worse grade by displaying tangible improvement over the past two games after bottoming out against Pitt, and because his scrambles are a significant source of offense.  However, it's clear by now he's the worst passer in the conference. By a lot.  His QB rating of 101.2 is 14 points worse than the next guy up, NC State's Pete Thomas.  Watford hasn't even flashed the ability to go through progressions, and his accuracy is little more than a prayer when asked to throw the ball more than 10 yards in any direction.

Granted, Watford would look a lot better if his receivers were playing better.  But the reason there isn't a clamor for change is twofold: one, fans are fed up with the quarterback carousel after it was a major failure last year, and two, Greyson Lambert hasn't been able to hit the broad side of a stamping plant.  Barring anything spectacular and unforeseen, the upcoming offseason will once again feature an all-out quarterback competition.

-- Wide receivers

Grade: F

The whole damn unit has been replaced on the depth chart.  That says all you need to know right there.  I've been impressed with Keeon Johnson simply because he seems to be on the receiving end of a target from Watford whenever the play breaks down and Watford is trying to make chicken salad out of chicken shit.  This tells me that at least one receiver, somewhere, is working his butt off to help his quarterback.  This should also tell you how low my standards have dipped for quality receiver play.  They should all be doing that.

To say I'm disappointed in the play of the receivers is to say something at Chernobyl went bang.  It's possible some of their lack of production has to do with the Fairchild offense, but even so, if Fairchild knew he had receivers that could mess with the heads of opposing DCs, he'd use them.  I suggested the top two receivers should combine for 1,300 yards this season.  They're on pace for 552.  That's pathetic.

There's no excuse for it.  Not with the across-the-board four-star talent sitting there.  These guys are just murdering the offense and letting their QB down.  They're dropping passes, quitting on plays, and completely failing to get open.  I don't mean to single out Kyle Dockins since he shouldn't be at the top of the depth chart, but he is, even though he has one catch for six yards.  That's not a knock on Dockins - it's a really, really damning statement about the guys who should be starting.

-- Tight ends

Grade: B-

They don't block well, and that's a sizable demerit.  Zach Swanson is probably the best all-around blocker of the group, and he's OK.  However, without their skills in the receiving department the passing game would just be a bunch of guys sitting around staring at the wall plus the occasional screen.  Swanson, for starters, has looked good catching the ball, and he presents the kind of big, hittable target you want out of your tight end.

Jake McGee was a major dropsies culprit during the Pitt game, but he's otherwise done a good job living up to the standard he set last year.  He continues to make impossible catches and he's a significant matchup problem for opposing DCs.  And he has more than twice the receptions of almost anyone on the team.  I'd like to see these guys make a better contribution to the run game, but overall I can't complain too much.

-- Running backs

Grade: B+

This is the highest grade of anyone on the offense, and for good reason.  To make it higher there would have to be someone who strikes genuine fear into the opposition.  We have nobody like that.  None of these guys have shown us any breakaway speed and elusiveness (in the case of Taquan Mizzell, we hope we can at least add "yet" to that statement.)

However, at the halfway point here, Kevin Parks has 510 yards, which puts him on pace to be the first 1,000-yard rusher in a while.  Parks has developed into a real workhorse, earning the lion's share of the carries and running well when given room.  Parks also breathes some life into a moribund passing game.  And Khalek Shepherd is starting to prove himself as a very viable change-of-pace option.  If given workhorse-level carries, I don't think he'd average anywhere near the 7.7 yards he's making, but two games in a row now with good numbers suggest that he's bringing to game day the good work he's done on the practice field.

-- Offensive line

Grade: C-

I don't know what to think.  Did you know that UVA is among the better teams in the conference (and country) at protecting the quarterback?  Or that the run game has averaged 239 yards each of the last two games?  Consecutive 100-yard games for Kevin Parks?

Yet when you line this group up in a power formation in short-yardage situations and try to slam ahead for half a yard, invariably they end up sitting on their butts in their own backfield.  That's been a pretty big handicap for the offense and it cost us Maryland.  The line seems highly capable of executing the technical side of their game.  The run game is becoming fairly effective out of the shotgun, because the linemen are steering their assignment in a direction rather than shoving him the hell out of the way.

However, there's a ways to go in just plain ol' cloud-of-dust football.  That, plus the miserable showing early on, keeps this grade from being any higher.  However, given the right scheming from Steve Fairchild, there's also the biggest chance of improvement of any unit on the offense.

-- Defensive line

Grade: B+

I just - I can't give out an A-something regardless of how badly I want to here.  They got gashed a little too often against Oregon and didn't generate enough of a pass rush against Ball State.  I guess I'm nitpicking some, but that's a third of the season there.

Still, when this unit is on, it's a terror.  Brent Urban is nasty and has knocked down eight passes.  The entire defense is going to suffer for his absence.  He and David Dean have been making themselves at home in enemy backfields.  Dean is a better pass rusher, and Urban has been a complete monster against the run.

This is not even to speak of Eli Harold, yet.  Harold has taken a few silly penalties, but they're almost (almost) excusable because they're mostly emotion penalties.  5.5 sacks at the halfway point, man.  Harold has become exactly what he was advertised to be: a holy terror on the edge.  And I'd be awfully remiss not also singing the praises of Jake Snyder, who has broken up some passes himself and is an excellent strong-side end, and very strong against the run.

I just wish we could see their Pitt performance every week.  That was amazing.  They made the line of scrimmage completely theirs.  A little more consistency is demanded, and there's a pretty clear drop-off between the starting four and the next four.  The Pitt game was A+ stuff - if they add that consistency to their game and if I see a few plays here and there out of guys like Mike Moore and Donte Wilkins, this group will be in the A-range by the end of the year.

-- Linebackers

Grade: A

It's an entertaining three-way race between Ant Harris, Henry Coley, and Daquan Romero for the tackles lead; they have 45, 46, and 44, respectively.  I can't count Harris's production here, on account of he's a safety, but Coley and Romero deserve every accolade they get.

These are two players who know something about being in the right place at the right time. Their tackling is outstanding, and so is their diagnosis of plays.  Romero has been outstanding at sniffing out screens and such.  Coley fills his gaps exceedingly well and as an MLB, moves side-to-side better than Steve Greer did.  Coley won't finish with as many tackles as Greer because his counterparts are snarfing up too many, but that's a good problem to have.

I suppose Max Valles is technically a linebacker, so his pass-rushing gets a mention here, but I don't know how sustainable that is, as Valles is still working his way out of one-trick-pony territory.  Coley and Romero have played so well that the only backup that gets much time is Demeitre Brim; he's playing solidly but only gets into the game in fits and starts.

-- Cornerbacks

Grade: B+

A little downgrade here for never coming up with any picks; Demetrious Nicholson has the only one of the unit.  However, these guys have played well, particularly Nicholson, whose absence was pretty heavily felt against Maryland.  The sooner he gets back the better.  Nicholson has been very good in coverage.  Maurice Canady and Drequan Hoskey are competing very, very hard with each other for playing time, and they've both been rewarded for their efforts.  Canady has more pass breakups (six) than Hoskey, but I always seem to get this feeling that when one makes a play, the other isn't far behind.  Like brothers determined not to be outdone by the other.

Overall it's been a very good unit.  Like the D-line, a few holes here and there.  The Ball State game, as with all defensive units, could've gone better.  But they're not the reason for the four losses, either.

-- Safeties

Grade: B

Harris, we've already mentioned.  Doing a good job in run support, and has two picks as well.  He gets around the field quite a bit and is really thriving in Jon Tenuta's defense, which is really demanding on a strong safety.  Tenuta is asking Harris to be everywhere from the offensive backfield to thirty yards deep in coverage, and he's doing it.

I don't know what to think about free safety Brandon Phelps.  There's a feeling on message boards that Phelps isn't making plays and therefore isn't doing his job.  I don't fully agree with it; an invisible free safety is the best free safety.  Usually if you know who your free safety is, it's because the TV shows him from the back, failing to catch up to the receiver he just let by him.

That said, those long pass plays are starting to show up where they didn't before.  Maryland confounded Phelps somewhat and was able to find their receivers deep, and UVA allowed too many big run plays to the Terps in which Phelps was nowhere to be seen.  This is probably the (simplistic) reason that Phelps finds himself competing with Rijo Walker for the starting job these days.  I'm not anti-Phelps by any stretch, but I don't think it'd be too much of a shakeup to increase Walker's playing time, either.

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Overall, the defense carries a 3.38 GPA - pretty decent honors-level stuff - and the offense sits at 1.8.  Not even good enough to stay eligible.  Barely a C-minus.  But what do you expect at 2-4?  Both must get better if a bowl season is to be scrounged from the jaws of defeat, because the defense has been on something of a downward trend the last two weeks and the offense hasn't improved nearly enough to make up for it.

weekend review

The not-yet-jaded among you (you're so adorable) may find some reason for optimism in this week's ACC results:

-- For one, GT got pretty well rolled by BYU this week.  That's good, right?  Since we beat BYU and have yet to play GT.  That should offer some hope for that particular game.  I think it's more likely that we'll look at the BYU game the exact same way we looked at last year's Penn State game.

-- Also, Clemson struggled, at home no less, against Boston College.  Maybe they're vulnerable - or maybe they just got caught looking ahead to next Saturday and Florida State.

-- Pitt-VT looked kind of like UVA-Pitt would've looked minus stupid turnovers.  And with a flicker of a passing game from VT.  Stat of the week: Trey Edmunds carried the ball nine times.  His longest carry was 14 yards.  He finished with 13 yards.  If by some miracle Brent Urban's injury is minor (it's probably not) VT's offensive line is ridiculously vulnerable.

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The depth chart isn't too heavily changed up.  I think the "or" at DT next to Brent Urban says a lot about his status, though.  Despite my Eeyoring, London says Urban's injury is "not season-ending" which I take as code for "but he's not exactly coming back soon, either."  Demetrious Nicholson gets an injury-related "or" as well, and Brandon Phelps gets a decidedly non-injury-related "or" and now shares the top spot with Rijo Walker.  There's a lot of fan bellyaching about Phelps because he "doesn't make plays" but that's exactly what you want out of a free safety: total invisibility.  Nevertheless, some big pass plays from Maryland should indeed cause a little re-examination of the position.

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Senior Seasons time:

Peachtree Ridge 38, Mountain View 13: Jordan Ellis scored three of his four total touchdowns in the third quarter and racked up 174 yards on the ground on 23 carries.  Peachtree Ridge is 6-1.

Episcopal 34, Germantown 25: Evan Butts had four catches, including an all-YAC 81-yard touchdown (and two TDs overall) in Episcopal's sixth win.  Episcopal is 6-1.

Green Run 21, Bayside 16: It's not a great season for a Bayside team that's usually among the better ones in Virginia Beach.  Quin Blanding ran some wildcat offense, running for 110 yards and both of Bayside's touchdowns, but Bayside lost their fourth of the year.  Bayside is 3-4.

Glendora 24, Upland 21 (Jeffery Farrar) - Upland is 3-3.
Graham 13, Cummings 7 (Will Richardson) - Cummings is 1-6.
Woodgrove 34, Park View 0 (J.J. Jackson) - Woodgrove is 4-1.

A couple games - Oscar Smith and Chancellor - got weather-delayed til Monday so I'll include them in next week's feature.

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This week the still-undefeated, still-#1 ladies soccer team makes another ESPN3 appearance: Thursday night at 7:00 when they take on NC State.  Why they chose that game and not Sunday's big one against UNC, I'll never know.  The men are not so visible and won't be watchable live (and on the ACC's website rather than ESPN) until November, but they did do a solid job this weekend in earning a draw against #5 Maryland.  The teams combined for six goals in the first 27 minutes and then remembered they were playing soccer and not supposed to score as if it were a lacrosse game.  They'll take on the always-lousy Hokies next.

a million miles away

I can see all the signs.  I see the box score, where respectable offensive numbers show up in places where there used to be a toxic waste dump.  I watched the game and for once it was the opponent I saw making crucial mistakes and handing points on silver platters to the other team.  If one game can be called a trend, there's a decidedly upwards one.

I'm still not convinced.  It's probably too late to rescue the season, now that the team needs four wins in the next six to call the season a success.  The progress isn't fast enough.  On the one hand, they did a lot of things right on Saturday; on the other, they did a few basic things so badly that they're still having to compensate in ways that can't bring sustainable success.

The O-line's inability to push a pile into the end zone was the most galling, and the reason that UVA lost despite a +3 turnover margin.  Given not one, but two red zone chances after muffed punts, the Hoos managed two field goals.  (This is why red-zone scoring percentage is a crap statistic.  Announcers call that 100%.  I call it 42%.)  The offensive line simply was not good, and the result was a whole bunch of field goals when touchdowns were demanded.

This is why it's awfully hard to blame Steve Fairchild for the woes of the offense right now.  If anything, maybe Scott Wachenheim.  The offensive line is a lousy unit right now.  It just is.  It can't be anything else given their total failure to be able to line up and gain just a few yards when that's all that's needed.  Fairchild managed to scheme around that and actually pile up yards on the ground.  242 rushing yards - that's all scheme.  When asked to execute an assignment, the line is doing fine.  When asked to win a battle, it ain't happening.

The level of trust in the quarterback isn't there either.  UVA ran twenty plays inside the Maryland twenty, only six of which were called passes.  Six passes, fourteen runs.  This doesn't count the end-of-game sequence in which the playcalling was apparently designed to ensure maximum safety.  I can't totally fault that - people would've been all over London and Fairchild if Watford had thrown a pick - but don't you think if we had a quarterback we trusted, they'd've put the game in his hands?  They purposely didn't, nor did they, except for one (failed) attempt, let him try and score the touchdown with his arm.  The only time he did score with his arm was a totally improvised busted play.

Against an O-line that can't move anyone and a quarterback the OC doesn't trust, how does the team win four of six?  It probably doesn't.  A two-game winning streak is the only thing that can change my mind, and even then maybe not because Clemson waits in three weeks.

I don't have a lot of other reactions in brief (other than to say that, yes, kicking the extra point to cut Maryland's lead to 14-13 in the first half was the right call.  In the first half you always take the point, period.  Too much can happen and it's the easiest thing in the world to come up with scenarios where you might really, really regret not having that point.)  So let's go straight to the predictions:

-- Watford throws neither a pick nor a touchdown.  Aw, c'mon.  If it hadn't been for his very excellent improvision with McGee I'd have nailed this one.  Oh well.  Actually Watford played maybe his best game so far.  He slightly improved the distance on his passes and didn't throw an interception.  He needs some help from his receivers, who consistently don't get open, but he's starting, just ever so slightly, to come into his own.
-- Neither run game musters more than three yards per attempt.  Actually both run games looked solid.

-- Keeon Johnson leads UVA wide receivers in receptions.  I thought there was no way this was going to pan out, but - boom.  Johnson had two, and nobody but Dom Terrell (two also) had more than one. 

-- Stefon Diggs has had two catches each of the past two games; he has more here.  Diggs had six.  This was an easy call.

Two-for-four makes me 13-for-30, plus I nailed both the game and spread prediction, making me 3-3 in both.

P.S. I think we're going to find out this week that, once again, We Can't Have Nice Things.  In this case, nice defensive tackles.

game preview: Maryland

Date/Time: Saturday, October 13; 3:30

TV: ESPNUVA

Record against the Terps: 32-43-2

Last meeting: Md. 27, UVA 20; 10/13/12, Charlottesville

Last weekend: BSU 48, UVA 27; FSU 63, Md 0

Line: Maryland by 7

Injury report:

Virginia:

OUT - OL George Adeosun, PK Ian Frye, CB Demetrious Nicholson, TE Mario Nixon, OT Sadiq Olanrewaju, S Wil Wahee

DOUBTFUL - None

QUESTIONABLE - None

PROBABLE - TE Zach Swanson

Maryland:

OUT - DB Milan Collins, OL JaJuan Dulaney, CB Dexter McDougle, DL Mike Minter, DL Ty Tucker, WR Tyrek Cheeseboro, RB Tyler Cierski, K Adam Greene, DB Jeremiah Johnson, OL Nick Klemm, LB Matt Robinson

DOUBTFUL - QB C.J. Brown

QUESTIONABLE - None

PROBABLE - WR Daniel Adams, OL Silvio Altamirano, LB Cole Farrand, WR Nigel King, TE Dave Stinebaugh, DL Zeke Riser

I'm a little torn, but strongly leaning toward the idea that we should close down relations forever with Maryland once their time in the ACC is done.  Depends on the sport, really; lacrosse, definitely.  Basketball, probably, and replace them with Georgetown.  Football, I suppose, is a little less clear, but then, the schedule's tied up for a good long time anyway.  So this'll be our last shot for the foreseeable future at what was a very fun rivalry when Ralph Friedgen would flap his fat gums and we would beat his teams in response.

-- UVA run offense vs. Md. run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 88 carries, 398 yards, 4.5 ypc, 5 TDs
Daniel Hamm: 23 carries, 141 yards, 6.1 ypc, 2 TDs

UVA offense:
178.20 yards/game, 4.09 yards/attempt
80th of 125 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

Md. defense:
115.40 yards/game, 3.21 yards/attempt
25th of 125 (national), 3rd of 14 (ACC)

It seems like a safe but tentative bet so far that in the season-long who's-after-Parks watch, Khalek Shepherd is slowly but surely emerging as the primary backup.  Neither he nor Taquan Mizzell show up on the injury report this week, so we finally have the health we need to see the decision through.

The other name not on the injury report: Conner Davis.  Mike London has hinted this means another change in the order of battle for the offensive line; despite what the depth chart says, it appears Davis will take Luke Bowanko's left guard spot and move Bowanko back to center.  Bowanko is still a better guard than center, but I guess the real idea is that Davis is a better guard than Ross Burbank or Jackson Matteo are centers.  Last week's lineup shuffle looked good against a bad run defense; Maryland presents a tougher challenge.

Mitigating that will be Maryland's loss of disruptive OLB Matt Robinson.  Robinson is one of the defense's leading players and a member of one of the best linebacking corps in the league.  Inside backers Cole Farrand and L.A. Goree ought to be able to cover up for him to an extent, but Maryland loses something on the edge without Robinson.  Marcus Whitfield, on the other side of the Terps' 3-4, is more of a pass rusher.  Of course, last time I said there might be a weakness on the edge, attack the edge, Steve Fairchild kept attacking the middle.  So we'll see.

The 3-4 is just another challenge for our O-line, too, which hasn't been allowed to see many conventional defenses this year.  Maryland's line has been solid, and nose tackle Darius Kilgo is a load, so the O-line is simply going to be tested all day, and the threat will be more versatile than just watching Aaron Donald tear into the backfield all day.

It may be that Davis's return is another small boost to the line.  Changing from Wallace and Whitmire to Whitmire and Smith certainly was one, and you have to like getting a starter back.  But one good day against Ball State doesn't change my mind about the offense.  Even without Matt Robinson, Maryland is well-equipped to slow down and even stop the UVA run game.  Then you add in the fact that the read-option is designed against a 4-3 defense, and I definitely don't see strong results in this area of the game.

-- UVA pass offense vs. Md. pass defense

Quarterback:
David Watford: 101/171, 59.1%; 813 yards, 3 TDs, 7 INTs; 4.75 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Jake McGee: 19 rec., 119 yards, 1 TD
Darius Jennings: 14 rec., 107 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
171.4 yards/game, 4.6 yards/attempt
125th of 125 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

Md. defense:
218.4 yards/game, 6.5 yards/attempt
43rd of 125 (national), 8th of 14 (ACC)

Another injury has sapped quite a bit of the effectiveness out of the Maryland pass defense: the loss of Dexter McDougle for the season.  The main consequence of that was the loss of most of their big-play capability; McDougle had three picks in as many games.  Isaac Goins is a solid cornerback, but McDougle's replacement, freshman William Likely, is 5'7", and, you know, a freshman.

The Maryland pass rush can be nasty.  The aforementioned Marcus Whitfield has 5.5 sacks, and his backup, Yannik Cudjoe-Virgil, has three.  Maryland's nose tackle position, between Darius Kilgo and Andre Monroe, has combined for 5.5 sacks, and the team total is 18, which ties them for 5th in the country.

So the O-line is in for another test.  Given the pass rush the Terps can generate from the middle of the line, having Bowanko at center is a little bit of a relief.  The playing-time intention at wide receiver, though, is still a mystery, even with the "ors" taken off the depth chart.  I guess there's just a skepticism factor that the starters are suddenly Kyle Dockins, Keeon Johnson, and Miles Gooch.  Johnson I believe given the role he played against Ball State, and that lineup of guys could provide an advantage given the lack of size Maryland has at corner.  Finding it hard to believe they're fully relegating guys like Tim Smith and Darius Jennings to the bench, though.

I do think our receivers provide an advantage over the Maryland defensive backfield, where the Terps are middling-decent but did present no threat whatsoever to the FSU passing game.  (By contrast, FSU's run game was successful but not spectacularly so.)  However, Watford's still learning, and slowly.  I'm gonna have to see something before I give the whole unit the benefit of the doubt.  At some point Watford's gonna have a great game and prove me wrong, but I don't plan on saying "this weekend is it" all year til I get it right.

-- Md. run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Brandon Ross: 68 carries, 331 yards, 4.8 ypc, 2 TDs
Albert Reid: 29 carries, 120 yards, 4.1 ypc, 1 TD

Md. offense:
188.0 yards/game, 4.65 yards/attempt
53rd of 125 (national), 6th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
149.2 yards/game, 3.87 yards/attempt
50th of 125 (national), 6th of 14 (ACC)

Like the offense in reverse, I'm gonna have to see more than one bad game out of the defense (Oregon doesn't count) before I decide it sucks.  I don't think that'll be in this phase of the game, at least.  The likely loss of C.J. Brown makes the Maryland run attack fairly one-dimensional.  Decent opponents have shut down Brandon Ross's backup, Albert Reid, which by subtraction leaves Ross as the only real rushing threat.  (Other backup Jacquille Veii, with almost as many carries as Reid, has been a garbage-timer so far.)

Ross can move the ball, but is no threat to break one open, and is a little bit stat-padded by a big game against ODU.  Florida International shut him down and FSU made him disappear entirely; he's just not a game-breaker, and Maryland's patchily young offensive line is still learning its way around consistent run-blocking.

So this is a very important phase of the game for UVA.  The Maryland pass offense can be dangerous, and UVA simply must force them to have to rely solely on it to move the ball.  If the run game can be stifled with just the regular up-front personnel, maybe even with six in the box, it'll make this game so much easier.  Long day otherwise.

-- Md. pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
C.J. Brown: 72/113, 63.7%; 1,125 yards, 7 TDs, 1 INT; 9.96 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Deon Long: 24 rec., 348 yards, 1 TD
Stefon Diggs: 20 rec., 424 yards, 3 TDs

Md. offense:
257.6 yards/game, 9.3 yards/attempt
10th of 125 (national), 4th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
191.4 yards/game, 5.6 yards/attempt
10th of 125 (national), 2nd of 14 (ACC)

It's great to have such nice numbers on our side, even with such nice ones on the Maryland side too, but here's where the injury bug takes a chunk out of our defense, with Demetrious Nicholson out for the game.  This is not the time for that, as UVA goes up against a dynamic duo at receiver for the third time in a row, and probably the best of the three in Stefon Diggs and Deon Long.

Diggs is also dealing with a malady of his own, which could slow him down and even up the matchup; Randy Edsall has been referring to him as not 100% and he hasn't been taking return duties.  He's been limited the past two weeks to two catches each.  Long has stepped forward somewhat.  Still, you have to game plan for him.  You're not going to worry about Levern Jacobs or Malcolm Culmer.  You might watch Nigel King, who stands 6'3" and for that reason alone can be a tough cover, but Diggs and Long are what make the Maryland offense move.

The above assumes C.J. Brown can play, but he's listed as doubtful - so he probably won't.  We're in much better shape if he doesn't.  Backup Caleb Rowe is not incapable but not close to the player Brown is, either.  The combination of losing Brown and having Diggs limited could be a major crippling factor for the Maryland offense, and without Nicholson we'll take all the help we can get.

-- Favorability ratings:

Run offense: 3
Pass offense: 3.5
Run defense: 7.5
Pass defense: 3 if Brown plays and Diggs is playable, and 6.5 otherwise

Average: 4.25 or 5.125

-- Outlook

You can see the effect on the game of Brown's injury.  Take him out of there and I can see UVA having the slimmest of advantages.  Put him in and the game swings Maryland's way.  Maryland's run game is much more dangerous with Brown (Rowe is not a runner) and Brown is easily the better passer too.   UVA must, must must must shut down the run game to the greatest extent possible, and do so nice and early, so that they'll be able to focus on stopping the pass.  If they can do that, that's their chance.  Moving the ball will be tough and opportunities to do so limited, so there'll be plenty of pressure on the defense to keep the game within striking distance.

-- Prediction summary

-- Watford throws neither a pick nor a touchdown.

-- Neither run game musters more than three yards per attempt.

-- Keeon Johnson leads UVA wide receivers in receptions.

-- Stefon Diggs has had two catches each of the past two games; he has more here.

Final score: Md. 17, UVA 13

-- Rest of the ACC

Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech - 12:00 - Tech will be remembering the embarrassing beatdown they received from the Panthers last year.

Duke vs. Navy - 12:30 - Duke bowl eligibility hopes probably demand this win.

Syracuse @ NC State - 3:30 - As do the bowl hopes of both these teams, slim as they are.

Boston College @ Clemson - 3:30 - Clemson's tuneup before the big game next week.

Georgia Tech @ Brigham Young - 7:00 - Should be a useful game in learning how we stand.

Byes: Miami, Florida State, Wake Forest, UNC

upgrade

'Pologies for not having the game preview post at the usual time.  I was busy making the future happen in my living room.  50 inches of HD goodness now populates the spot formerly occupied by the past.  I'll have the preview up this evening, and as a bonus, if the Hoos win, the highlight video will now be in hi-def.

uniform tracker

Because I'm so fully on top of it when it comes to updating everything on the side, I thought I'd give myself one more project.  If I remember to keep doing it, this'll be a tracker of how well UVA has performed in each one of their uniform combinations.  If we can get a big enough sample size (30 years or so oughta do it, assuming I still have time to blog and be a grandpa) it should be a good indicator of which uniform we should wear for optimal performance.

Here are the possible combos, listed helmet-jersey-pants.  There's a G, B, or U next to each; they refer to my verdicts from last year's fashionista post, which were Good, Bad, or Ugly.  The first record is straight up; the second is against the spread so appropriate credit can be given for wins like the near-upset against USC in the first year of the London era.  They don't add up to the same thing because I can't find historical spreads for all games, mostly our older I-AA games.

(B) Blue-blue-blue: 1-3, 0-3
(G) Blue-blue-white: 1-4, 1-4
(B) Blue-blue-orange: 1-1, 0-2

(G) Blue-white-blue: 0-2, 0-2
(B) Blue-white-white: 5-2, 5-2
(G) Blue-white-orange: 0-3, 2-1

(G) Blue-orange-blue: 6-4, 5-3-1
(B) Blue-orange-white: 2-0, 1-0-1
(U) Blue-orange-orange: 0-1, 0-1

(U) Orange-blue-blue: 0-0, 0-0
(B) Orange-blue-white: 0-0, 0-0
(G) Orange-blue-orange: 1-1, 0-2

(B) Orange-white-blue: 0-0, 0-0
(U) Orange-white-white: 0-2, 1-1
(B) Orange-white-orange: 0-1, 0-1

(B) Orange-orange-blue: 0-2, 0-2
(B) Orange-orange-white: 1-0, 0-0
(U) Orange-orange-orange: 0-0, 0-0

Throwbacks: 0-1, 0-1

Compilations:

Blue helmets: 16-20, 14-18-2
Orange helmets: 2-6, 1-6

Blue jerseys: 4-9, 1-11
White jerseys: 5-10, 8-7
Orange jerseys: 9-7, 6-6-2

Blue pants: 7-11, 5-11
White pants: 9-8, 8-7-1
Orange pants: 2-7, 2-7

Some notes on history:

-- 2010 was definitely a sandbox kind of year.  The players tried out their new toy with every uniform combo at least once, but also declared a favorite (something new, because it's not old, as is always the case) by wearing orange jersey and blue pants three times.

-- 2011, on the other hand, might've been either the product of superstition or the product of "you lose uniform picking privileges on the road," since the team selected several different looks at home but mostly only one on the road.

-- Sadly, the only win we've seen in the beautiful, "traditional" blue-blue-white combo (earning that label for being created during the UVA heyday, the only one truly associated nationally with us being good at football) was this year's VMI campaign.  They had been a dismal 0-4 til then.

-- Blue-white-white, however, has been wildly successful.  It was the combo for most of the road games during 2011, including Florida State, and was also the look for last year's large, surprising, probably-TOB-chasing win over NC State.  Blue-orange-blue has also been a winning look.

-- Orange jerseys and white pants have the only winning records in their respective groups; the combo has only been worn twice together, though.  Duke and Eastern Michigan were the recipients of those beatings.

Note - complete through Georgia Tech, October 26, 2013

weekend review

Le sigh.  It wasn't a great weekend, but we're obligated to review it anyway.  Someone on one of the boards said that the collective IQ of the fanbase is directly proportional to the win-loss record, which, ain't it the truth, man.  One thing that will really blow everyone's mind is if London is fired after next year (which means, probably, that we didn't go bowling now or then) and an objective review of the Al Groh and Mike London eras proves Groh the superior coach.  If IQs could be negative, you'd see it then.

We'll start with the recruiting board, I suppose.  2014 recruiting has ground to a halt, but not at other schools, which means targets keep slowly coming off the board.  The updates:

-- Removed WR Juwann Winfree (Maryland) from yellow.

-- Removed DT Ricky Walker (VT) from red.

So yeah, these are not happy times in the recruiting world, although I do question London's commitment to recruiting either of those players.  Walker never actually got offered; if London wanted to, he could've simply sent a letter, as written offers are kosher by now.

*****************************************************

Let's go around the ACC and see what kind of fun other people were having while we were watching our fourth-year coach get mashed by a MAC team at home.

-- Miami knocked off GT.  Now, they gotta play FSU from the Atlantic while VT doesn't have to play anyone of consequence, so they don't have a lot of margin for error.  But it sets them up to achieve, after nine seasons of waiting, what the ACC dreamed of all this time: a Miami-FSU CG.  All they gotta do is beat Tech, really, and not lose more than once.

-- FSU must have been kinda cheesed off about all this Maryland talk.

-- NC State is definitely one of the Jekyll-and-Hydiest teams in the ACC.  A loss to Wake - ouch.

-- Seriously, man - really cheesed off.

-- UNC is setting up to be the team I missed the hardest on in the preseason.  I mean, they might not even go bowling unless they rattle off a huge win streak after their inevitable Thursday loss to Miami this week.  The competition afterwards kinda sucks, so they could do it, but still.

-- I'm not kidding.  Pissed as hell.

*****************************************************

It's a small Senior Seasons section this week, because Farrar, Richardson, and Moss were all on bye weeks this weekend.  Probably a record for the smallest ever.  Nevertheless, we press on.  Grimly.

Collins Hill 35, Peachtree Ridge 28: Jordan Ellis racked up three more touchdowns and 102 rushing yards, but his team suffered their first loss of the season in a battle of undefeated teams.  Peachtree Ridge is 5-1.

Lawrenceville 48, Episcopal 47: Evan Butts caught what would've been the game-tying touchdown if Episcopal had kicked the extra point, but they went for two and ended their long winning streak in the process.  Episcopal is 5-1.

Central Catholic 35, St. Petersburg Catholic 14 (Caanan Brown) - CCC is 5-1.
Oscar Smith 70, Deep Creek 6 (Andrew Brown) - Oscar Smith is 5-0.
Bayside 18, Kellam 10 (Quin Blanding) - Bayside is 3-3.
Woodgrove 35, Heritage 7 (J.J. Jackson) - Woodgrove is 3-2.

That's all I got for one night.  I could go on about depth chart changes this week, but the only ones were at wide receiver where none of Jennings, Terrell, or Smith are atop the charts.  You can riddle that out on your own.  Nothing is working for me tonight, from the plumbing to the compass to the thermostat, and I don't mean my house.  And we might be less than a week away from "wait til basketball season" so that's not the best of mood-setters either.

malaise

I got kind of sick this weekend.  I had a fever on Friday and woke up Saturday feeling like I'd gone ten rounds with Joe Louis.  Fever, chills, achiness all over, there was a swollen gland thingy in my neck the size of a strawberry, and general malaise and complete lack of motivation.  The weird thing is, as of yet, I never had a cough, sore throat, runny nose, or the usual unpleasantries that come from being sick.  Just no desire whatsoever to move around.  I could function if I made myself want to, but I couldn't muster up the want-to.

This sounds like a terrible way to spend a weekend, you think.  Rotten luck that you didn't get sick on a Wednesday or something.  Actually it's better than it sounds - since I didn't have any very special plans anyway, I had all the reason I needed to droop around in pajamas and never leave my big comfy recliner, occasionally napping, and taking in all the college football I could handle, not to mention October baseball (GO TIGERS).  And since I had nothing better to do, that turned out to be plenty.  If I'd had to deal with this on a weekday, I'd've been expected to look like I cared about stuff.

There isn't some neat and trim narrative that ties all this in to the Ball State game, by the way.  Just telling you a story about something I liked better than watching our defense make a fool of me.

I don't know what I'm supposed to think about giving up 48 points like that.  Even if there were a few short-field situations, there were enough long-field drives to lose the game without ever being dropped into lousy field position by the offense.  And that's surprising.  After dominating the line of scrimmage last week, the D-line couldn't shed any blocks this week.  They were just as undisciplined as the offense, which displayed no interest in hanging on to the ball.  I don't care if you are supposed to be blitzing, jumping the line of scrimmage is never excusable.

When you think about it, though, maybe I shouldn't be surprised.  I've been harping about the lack of accountability on things like Dominique Terrell's continued boneheaded decisions.  Thankfully we were spared having him back there on punt returns, but it's not really about Terrell in the end.  It's that London, in being too much of a players' coach, has succeeded in creating an atmosphere where guys know it'll be OK if they make mistakes.  As much as he bloviates in press conferences about "getting that fixed" I do not see anything different than the same ol' shit.  Three and a half seasons into London's tenure and there's no discipline.  Maybe Tom O'Brien, Marine stalwart that he is, and Jon Tenuta, a notorious stickler, can right that ship.  They have about 19 more games to do so.  London, though, is not a disciplinarian, and at this stage, probably never will be.

Stuff in briefer:

-- Kevin Parks's "fumble" I don't totally blame him for.  I mean, hang on to the ball so you don't give the refs the chance to screw up.  But that wasn't a fumble.  The way the rules are written, refs won't blow the whistle because they know if they rule the player down, it's not reviewable.  But if they call a fumble, it can always be overturned in replay.  It seems to me that there shouldn't be a case in which one call is reviewable and its opposite is not - it tilts the balance unfairly.  If you started with a clean slate, without a call one way or the other to revert to when you decide you don't care enough to look for evidence, you wouldn't have called that a fumble.

-- I hope all the people bitching about Steve Fairchild's "vanilla" offense are happy.  There is nothing vanilla about the offense, which often runs from a pistol and at a couple points featured stacked receivers on both sides of the formation, and frankly it ought to have been far less interesting than it was.  The running backs were just this side of dominant, and Fairchild declined to take advantage.  You just scored a touchdown by run-hammering your way down the field, so yeah, the logical thing to do next is go pass-happy.  One positive of this game is that the run-blocking was highly improved.  But the next one of you that says the word "vanilla" I'm gonna strangle.

-- Oh by the way, if it weren't totally obvious by now, don't make plans for the postseason.

-- Yes, I'm starting to get tired of the London era.  Watching this same undisciplined crap, never being able to put together a good, concrete, firing-on-all-cylinders performance - London's teams are not fun to watch.  I'm a realist, though, and London isn't going anywhere this season.  That's the cold hard fact of it.  After 2014, well, we'll see how that season goes.  If it starts off the way this one has, I'll get busy evaluating replacements.

Let's go over those predictions:

-- Kevin Parks runs for over 100 yards.  He nosed over at 104.

-- The offense as a whole runs for over 125 yards.  They actually almost doubled this with 236.  Having set the bar too low here is one of the pleasant surprises of the game.  The offensive line changes are a tentative success.

-- No new favorite receivers. The receptions leader among non-RBs will be Jennings, McGee, Smith, or Terrell; nobody with fewer than nine catches.  If I'd been smart I would've said "targets leader" and not "receptions leader."  Jake McGee was targeted quite a bit, but he had a crappy game and didn't haul in everything he should've.  I'm going to give myself this one, though, as he did still tie for the receptions lead among non-RBs.

-- However, one receiver with two catches or fewer will gather in at least four.  Close but no cigar; Keeon Johnson had three, including one really nice sideline one.  Johnson, I think I like; unlike certain other receivers I've noticed, Johnson showed a willingness to help keep a play alive when his quarterback is scrambling.  He had a touchdown catch negated by a (chintzy) holding call, but good on him for helping out Watford when Watford was in trouble.

-- Ball State's top RBs, Banks and Edwards, reach neither one-half their seasonal ypc nor two-thirds their average ypg.  Uh, no.

-- Keith Wenning throws for fewer than 250 yards.  Not only no but hell no.  Wenning had 346.
In going 3-for-6 I move to 11-of-26 on the season, which is over 42%.  Better than I've done in the past.  I might be getting the hang of this.  But you lost money if you followed my overall prediction, and I'm now 2-3 both straight-up and ATS.

game preview: Ball State

Date/Time: Saturday, October 5; 12:00

TV: RSN/ESPN3

Record against the Cardinals: 0-0

Last meeting: N/A

Last weekend: Pitt 14, UVA 3; BSU 31, Tol. 24

Line: UVA by 5

Injury report: none

One kind of annoying thing about having kind of a (perceived) lousy team: nobody gives you credit for the good things you can do.  UVA is a fashionable upset pick this week because "Ball State has a good offense."  (Classic example: David Hale on the ESPN blog writes, "Ball State QB Keith Wenning has thrown for more than 300 yards in every game so far, meaning the Cavaliers are likely going to need some offensive fireworks of their own to keep pace."  What that actually says is, "UVA's defense isn't good enough to stop him from doing so again.") That offense has been on display against teams like the mighty Eastern Michigan Eagles, but whatever.  UVA's defense isn't being given a whole lot of attention.  DARK HORSEZ MAN.  US VS. EVERYBODY.  This is a must-win game, though; I chalked up Ball State as a win on the road to bowl eligibility not because I think they suck VMI-style, but because if you can't beat Ball State you're gonna find the road in the ACC awfully tough.  So if we do - somehow - pull off the win, don't forget to drop Hale, Mark Schlabach, and Heather Dinich a friendly little hello.

-- UVA run offense vs. BSU run defense

Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 72 carries, 294 yards, 4.1 ypc, 3 TDs
Daniel Hamm: 23 carries, 141 yards, 6.1 ypc, 2 TDs

UVA offense:
163.75 yards/game, 3.70 yards/attempt
96th of 125 (national), 12 of 14 (ACC)

BSU defense:
202.6 yards/game, 4.65 yards/attempt
90th of 125 (national), 8th of 13 (MAC)

The question I've been rhetorically asking all season is: which back is going to be Kevin Parks's primary reliever?  It might be that the answer is nobody.  Part of the deal there is injuries - all three of the primary options, including both the surprise and the non-surprises, have been dealing with injury.  I think the other likely explanation is this: Parks is the only one the coaches consistently trust to run the read-option with Watford (inexperienced backs can logarithmically increase your fumble rate on that play) and Watford defaults to handing off.  Parks has averaged 18 carries a game, and that's including his half-day against VMI and the forced pass-happy day (UVA attempted 47 passes) against Oregon.

When Mike London announced changes on the offensive line, it was primarily to get the running game going.  Pass protection, while not spectacular, isn't a total disaster either; Aaron Donald did make it look worse than it has been, but it was basically the running game that instigated the change.  I'm slightly more than cautiously optimistic about it; Jay Whitmire is undoubtedly one of the top linemen on the team, and you can tell because of how his RT position was never challenged in camp.  No, that's not a knock on the challengers.  He will be a colossal upgrade over Cody Wallace and is also probably better than the still-injured Conner Davis.  RG just got a lot better.

So that should help the run game.  We'll have to see about center; the smart money leans toward Jackson Matteo, whose track to the starting job was derailed by an injury in camp.  He's now over that and should be ready, but the fact that he's an unknown quantity makes me more nervous about that potential change.

Ball State should be a good way to ease the linemen into their new roles.  There's no dominant force on the Cardinal D-line - the closest thing might be DT Nathan Ollie, who's got a few TFL to his name - and running offenses both good and bad have moved the ball against them.  Eastern Michigan, the 118th rushing offense in the country, had 4.6 yards a carry, and North Texas (101st) was over five.  The Cardinals have some decent linebacking from Ben Ingle and Zack Ryan, but ultimately there's no individual in particular to game-plan for.  That's great news for our offense; it means they can focus internally without penalty, and worry about what they want to do rather than what they have to do to avoid the strengths of the defense.

It's still early, so hope springs eternal yet; I might be a hopeless dumbass for this, but let's just go ahead and call a 100-yard day for Kevin Parks.  Five yards a carry on the 20 carries he'll get given the likely injury state of the other backs.  125 yards on the ground is all the Hoos need for a non-VMI season best, and I think they get it.

-- UVA pass offense vs. BSU pass defense

Quarterback:
David Watford: 80/135, 59.3%; 604 yards, 3 TDs, 6 INTs; 4.47 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Darius Jennings: 14 rec., 107 yards, 1 TD
Jake McGee: 16 rec., 91 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
158.5 yards/game, 4.3 yards/attempt
125th of 125 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

BSU defense:
223.6 yards/game, 6.4 yards/attempt
50th of 125 (national), 2nd of 13 (MAC)

It's official now: we have the worst-ass pass offense in the nation.  Last week pretty much cemented that.  Very rarely was the offense ever able to put together good protection, good decision-making, a good throw, and an actual catch all in one play.  The receivers found themselves on notice in practice this week for all the drops.

That part can probably improve.  Darius Jennings and Jake McGee have never been stonehanded players.  Dominique Terrell used to be, but not for a while now, and he actually was not a major culprit (in the passing game, anyway.)  Despite the depth chart and its "or" overload, I don't think there'll be a revolution there.  We'll probably see most of the usual suspects again.

Watford's decision-making is a work in progress, though, and it's going to come along at its own pace rather than there suddenly being some opponent which makes it easier on us.  And a new right tackle (true freshman Eric Smith) could have us keeping an eye on pass protection.  Ball State doesn't have any dynamic pass-rushers, but they like to bring blitzes from different areas; their sack leader, with two, is cornerback Kenneth Lee.  The D-line accounts for only 3 of their 8 sacks, so this is another reason for the coaches to want to lean on the veteran RB in Parks, as well as something else for Watford to have to watch.

There are too many moving parts in a passing game for me to hold the same kind of optimism as with the running game.  And the Cardinal defense is better in this realm.  The D-line won't generate a big pass rush, so that's a plus, but Ball State is good at keeping things in front of them and making a few turnovers happen here and there.  I don't think Watford gets more than 6 yards a pop, tops.

-- BSU run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Horactio Banks: 55 carries, 350 yards, 6.4 ypc, 5 TDs
Jahwan Edwards: 49 carries, 219 yards, 4.5 ypc, 7 TDs

BSU offense:
136.6 yards/game, 4.30 yards/attempt
76th of 125 (national), 4th of 13 (MAC)

UVA defense:
146.5 yards/game, 3.83 yards/attempt
53rd of 125 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)

The real testament here to the quality of the UVA defense is that they're comfortably in the top half of the country despite that 350-yard Oregon game.  The rest of the time, which includes two perfectly decent BCS-level opponents, UVA has been crushing running games into fine powder, and their yards-per-carry stat in those three would be good enough for second in the country.

So despite the very nice-looking stats of Ball State's primary ballcarriers, I'd say it's the Cardinals that have to prove themselves here.  Their backs are smallish all the way around; Horactio Banks is sort of normal-small at 5'10", but Jahwan Edwards is stocky as hell at the same height and 225 pounds.  They're a little bit of a poor man's thunder and lightning; Edwards might have a little bit better of a ypc average if he weren't called on a lot in short yardage.  Ball State also uses freshman mini-back Teddy Williamson, but he hasn't been productive yet.

At any rate, there's not a lot to discuss, matchup-wise.  We've gotten to the point where I'm perfectly comfy turning our defense loose and not worrying about the result because it'll take care of itself.  OK, we can talk about that a little bit; Ball State does have a pair of what Gregg Easterbrook used to call Ticonderoga-class offensive guards in Jalen Schlachter and Jordan Hansel.  They should be able to win a few battles here and there.  Still, I don't think either of BSU's primary backs can top even half their season average for yards per carry, nor two-thirds their yards-per-game.

-- BSU pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Keith Wenning: 118/184, 64.1%; 1,650 yards, 9 TDs, 3 INTs; 8.97 yards/attempt

Top receivers:
Willie Snead: 35 rec., 611 yards, 4 TDs
Jamill Smith: 28 rec., 397 yards, 1 TD

BSU offense:
335.8 yards/game, 8.7 yards/attempt
25th of 125 (national), 2nd of 13 (MAC)

UVA defense:
152.8 yards/game, 4.7 yards/attempt
4th of 125 (national), 1st of 14 (ACC)

These defensive numbers are so good (that is, low) that I seriously thought for a second I had accidentally called up the offensive stats again.  They're even pretty close.  Again, they're you-have-to-beat-us numbers.

Ball State should be relatively easy to scout because they don't spread the ball around much.  The guys you see on film are the ones you'll see on game day.  That goes for the running and passing game.  The top four receivers account for 81% of the receptions; the next two are hurt, so it's more like 93% considering only receptions by players actually available.

This area of the game, though, is why people think Ball State will win.  Keith Wenning is a senior QB with a load of experience under his belt; he's been a starter since he was a freshman.  He's averaging 330 yards a game.  His stats are also you-have-to-beat-us stats.  Receiver Willie Snead has already hauled in 611 yards, more than two-thirds of ACC receivers (if not more) will have all year.  Ball State also has Jamill Smith, an itsy-bitsy spider at 5'8", 141, and Jordan Williams is their big guy at 6'2".  Solid receiving corps, but if our secondary can cover Devin Street and Tyler Boyd consistently, they should also be able to handle Ball State's gang.

Wenning has thrown for at least 317 yards in every game, but every defense they've faced has been trash.  Every I-A team they've faced ranks in the triple-digits against the pass.  North Texas - and that's the team that beat the Cardinals, by the way - is 120th.  Yes, Ball State's been good at protecting the passer and moving the ball with tremendous efficiency - but they're in a whole new ballgame here.  Wenning is not going to top that 300 mark, nor even 250, I would hazard.

-- Favorability ratings

The offense is in such a state that there is no longer any team in which I can possibly give them a favorable rating.  Maybe VMI.  Maybe.

Run offense: 4
Pass offense: 2.5
Run defense: 8
Pass defense: 7.5

Average: 5.5

-- Outlook

For the first time this year I don't think the average favorability quite does the game justice.  It's cliched but true to brag that Ball State, gaudy though their numbers might be, has not faced a defense like ours.  I make an allowance for their accomplishments, but the baseline favorability ratings right now ought to be, like, 2 for the offense and 9 for the defense.  Ball State actually plays fairly well into our hands; the thing they do best pits them against the teeth of the monster, and the thing they do worst (defend the run) is well-positioned to let us look for a rebound game.  I think it'll be a little tighter than would be comfortable at times, but in the end we should be happy with the result.

-- Prediction summary

Admittedly some of these do not set the bar all that high, but c'mon.  Baby steps.

-- Kevin Parks runs for over 100 yards.

-- The offense as a whole runs for over 125 yards.

-- No new favorite receivers.  The receptions leader among non-RBs will be Jennings, McGee, Smith, or Terrell; nobody with fewer than nine catches.

-- However, one receiver with two catches or fewer will gather in at least four.

-- Ball State's top RBs, Banks and Edwards, reach neither one-half their seasonal ypc nor two-thirds their average ypg.

-- Keith Wenning throws for fewer than 250 yards.

Final score: UVA 24, BSU 13

-- Rest of the ACC

Maryland @ Florida State - 12:00 - If Maryland wins, or even comes close, I promise to stop saying "we'll have to wait and see if they're any good."

North Carolina @ Virginia Tech - 12:30 - Hokies fans are always so torn for this game.  It's like choosing between children.

Boston College vs. Army - 1:00 - The Eagles look to "shut down" (HA HA GET IT BECAUSE OF THE GOVERNMENT?) the Army attack.

NC State @ Wake Forest - 3:30 - Remember how I said the Deacons' O-line was horrible and the NC State D-line was awesome?  That's still true, so this ought to be an interesting game.

Clemson @ Syracuse - 3:30 - I don't expect this to be all that competitive either.

Georgia Tech @ Miami - 3:30 - If GT wins it could really screw up the Coastal race.

Byes: Pittsburgh, Duke

the recruit: Caanan Brown

Name: Caanan Brown
Position: LB
Hometown: Clearwater, FL
School: Clearwater Central Catholic
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 225

24/7: 76, two stars; #135 OLB, FL #235
ESPN: 76, three stars; #77 OLB, SE #379, FL #136
Rivals: 5.4, two stars
Scout: two stars; #125 OLB

Other offers: UMass

Now this is a tough case to crack.  There isn't a lot out there on Caanan Brown, who committed more or less out of nowhere and remains sort of a nowhere recruit.  He plays in a region of the country that's loaded with top football players and therefore doesn't stand out in his locality.  Which in turn means a lack of local-boy-makes-good articles.  He didn't have a lot of offers - the only one consistently listed is one from UMass, although there is one guru article out there that makes a passing mention of FAU, FIU, and Buffalo.

Which leaves us essentially with the conclusion that Brown is one of those Coaches' Choice commits in which someone sees something in him that fits a system.  Obvious guess: Jon Tenuta.  Interestingly, Scout - which rarely has a full strengths-and-weaknesses evaluation of UVA prospects - has such a list that lends a lot of credence to the idea that Tenuta wants Brown in a Max Valles role as a blitzing linebacker.  Included in Brown's strengths, per Scout, is "shedding ability," and indeed, a few of the highlights on his tapes are plays where he's blocked, and then, poof, he isn't.

I have to admit, though, that the main impression I got from the highlight tapes is a need to improve his strength.  I don't usually get a great deal from those things, because they're highlights for a reason.  Everyone looks good on them.  In Brown's case, he's not an overpowering tackler at all, and uses good handwork to free himself from his blocker.  That probably explains the near-consensus two-star rating he received.

It's a shame, really, that ESPN doesn't have a breakdown of his play, because they stand as the outlier as far as ratings go and it'd be interesting to hear their take.  The ratings from everyone else on Brown are very consistent, and his offers line up with that.  Very unenthusiastic.  It's likely, therefore, that Brown is being recruited to fill a specific niche rather than a full-time starting role - at least initially.  He's got decent quicks for his size, and Scout (and Brown himself) speak of pass coverage as an area for improvement, all of which only add to the narrative of a guy being brought in to rush the passer.  Brown plays both DE and LB for his high school team, so it won't be a major leap.

I suppose if Valles is listed as a "strong-side linebacker," that's where Brown will end up if I'm right about his future role.  But a lot of this is speculation, too; we're still getting a feel for Tenuta's philosophy on things.  I mean, we know he likes to get all blitzy up in here, that's not new.  But there's a lot of underlying detail there, which we're still feeling our way around.  I suspect Brown is a recruit who Jim Reid would never have given a look, and that he's a Tenuta pick all the way, so rather than use what we know about the defense to project Brown's future, it's more like we'll use Brown as a data point on Tenuta's outlook on life.