Sunday, November 16, 2008

i'm a ramblin' wreck from georgia tech and a hellUVA'n engineer

This week, to be a UVA fan is to be a Georgia Tech fan. Our Coastal Division hopes rest on the Yellow Jackets. Actually, they also rest on us beating both Clemson and VT, but to save time for all of us, just add "assuming we win out" to basically everything in this post.

So why Georgia Tech? The simple fact is that if they do not beat Miami on Thursday, then we lose any and all tiebreakers for the division.

We don't have to worry about Duke or VT. If we end up tied with Duke, a bowl game is probably out of the question, let alone the division title. VT already has three losses - if we win out, it's their fourth. No worries.

So in the next two weeks, there are only two games each (besides ours) that affect us. Chronologically, these are:

Miami @ Georgia Tech
NC State @ UNC
UNC @ Duke
Miami @ NC State

Four games means 16 distinct possibilities. Let's get scientific and break them down, one by one.

---------------------------
Scenario 1:

Miami beats Georgia Tech
UNC beats NC State
UNC beats Duke
Miami beats NC State

Miami 6-2
UVA 5-3
UNC 5-3
GT 4-4
Miami wins division with no tiebreakers.
---------------------------
Scenario 2:

Miami beats Georgia Tech
UNC beats NC State
UNC beats Duke
NC State beats Miami

Miami 5-3
UVA 5-3
UNC 5-3
GT 4-4
Miami wins the division based on the second tiebreaker: record within division. Miami 4-1, UNC and UVA 3-2.
---------------------------
Scenario 3:

Miami beats Georgia Tech
UNC beats NC State
Duke beats UNC
Miami beats NC State

Miami 6-2
UVA 5-3
UNC 4-4
GT 4-4
Miami wins division with no tiebreakers.
---------------------------
Scenario 4:

Miami beats Georgia Tech
UNC beats NC State
Duke beats UNC
NC State beats Miami

Miami 5-3
UVA 5-3
UNC 4-4
GT 4-4
Miami wins division based on head-to-head result.
---------------------------
Scenario 5:

Miami beats Georgia Tech
NC State beats UNC
UNC beats Duke
Miami beats NC State

Miami 6-2
UVA 5-3
UNC 4-4
GT 4-4
Miami wins division with no tiebreakers.
---------------------------
Scenario 6:

Miami beats Georgia Tech
NC State beats UNC
UNC beats Duke
NC State beats Miami

Miami 5-3
UVA 5-3
UNC 4-4
GT 4-4
Miami wins division based on head-to-head result.
---------------------------
Scenario 7:

Miami beats Georgia Tech
NC State beats UNC
Duke beats UNC
Miami beats NC State

Miami 6-2
UVA 5-3
GT 4-4
UNC 3-5
Miami wins division with no tiebreakers.
---------------------------
Scenario 8:

Miami beats Georgia Tech
NC State beats UNC
Duke beats UNC
NC State beats Miami

Miami 5-3
UVA 5-3
GT 4-4
UNC 3-5
Miami wins division based on head-to-head result.
---------------------------

So. As you can see, there's nothing about a Miami win over Georgia Tech that's good for us. No matter what happens after that, the tiebreakers don't tiebreak in our favor. In fact, if Miami does beat GT, that would eliminate everyone but UNC. Let's look at a happier group of scenarios - the ones involving a Yellow Jacket victory.

---------------------------
Scenario 9:

Georgia Tech beats Miami
UNC beats NC State
UNC beats Duke
Miami beats NC State

UVA 5-3
UNC 5-3
Miami 5-3
GT 5-3
Virginia wins division. UVA and UNC are 2-1, Miami and GT 1-2 in the "round robin" head-to-head. UVA wins on head-to-head against UNC. This is the infamous 4-way tie scenario.
---------------------------
Scenario 10:

Georgia Tech beats Miami
UNC beats NC State
UNC beats Duke
NC State beats Miami

UVA 5-3
GT 5-3
UNC 5-3
Miami 4-4
Virginia wins division on head-to-head against GT and UNC.
---------------------------
Scenario 11:

Georgia Tech beats Miami
UNC beats NC State
Duke beats UNC
Miami beats NC State

Miami 5-3
UVA 5-3
GT 5-3
UNC 4-4
Miami wins division. Round robin head-to-head is even at 1-1 each. UVA and Miami divison records are 3-2; GT is 2-3, eliminating GT. Miami wins on head-to-head result.
---------------------------
Scenario 12:

Georgia Tech beats Miami
UNC beats NC State
Duke beats UNC
NC State beats Miami

UVA 5-3
GT 5-3
UNC 4-4
Miami 4-4
Virginia wins division based on head-to-head result.
---------------------------
Scenario 13:

Georgia Tech beats Miami
NC State beats UNC
UNC beats Duke
Miami beats NC State

Miami 5-3
UVA 5-3
GT 5-3
UNC 4-4
Miami wins division. Round robin head-to-head is even at 1-1 each. UVA and Miami divison records are 3-2; GT is 2-3, eliminating GT. Miami wins on head-to-head result.
---------------------------
Scenario 14:

Georgia Tech beats Miami
NC State beats UNC
UNC beats Duke
NC State beats Miami

UVA 5-3
GT 5-3
UNC 4-4
Miami 4-4
Virginia wins division based on head-to-head result.
---------------------------
Scenario 15:

Georgia Tech beats Miami
NC State beats UNC
Duke beats UNC
Miami beats NC State

Miami 5-3
UVA 5-3
GT 5-3
UNC 3-5
Miami wins division. Round robin head-to-head is even at 1-1 each. UVA and Miami divison records are 3-2; GT is 2-3, eliminating GT. Miami wins on head-to-head result.
---------------------------
Scenario 16:

Georgia Tech beats Miami
NC State beats UNC
Duke beats UNC
NC State beats Miami

UVA 5-3
GT 5-3
Miami 4-4
UNC 3-5
Virginia wins division based on head-to-head result.
---------------------------

So if you're counting, that was 5 out of 16 possible scenarios that give us the division title, assuming we win out. However, four of those five involve NC State beating Miami, so it's not really a 5-in-16 chance.

What it boils down to is this. For us to win the division:

1. We must beat Clemson and Virginia Tech.
2. Georgia Tech must beat Miami.
3a. UNC must beat Duke and NC State OR...
3b. NC State must beat Miami

Essentially our best bet is the four-way tie, which would result from 1, 2, and 3a. Obviously, this is all predicated on us taking care of business, which, if it were that easy, we'd have done against Miami and we wouldn't have to screw around with this tiebreaker mess.

Realistically, we should start thinking about bowl games on the blue turf or in a baseball stadium. If we go bowling at all. Clemson and VT ain't exactly Richmond where we can display our usual offensive ineptitude and expect to win.

As a final note, please visit TheSabre's Philip Brown donation page. Brown was a UVA defensive back from a few years back, who was diagnosed with testicular cancer, went into remission, and relapsed. Brown faces another battery of tests and chemotherapy, as well as travel costs for his family. Click the link to visit TheSabre and make a donation or sign the guestbook.

5 comments:

Birdman said...

I didn't see a GT wins division scenario. GT wins division if the following happens:

1) GT beats Miami
2a) UNC loses to NCSU
2b) UNC loses to Duke
3a) UVA loses to Clemson, beats VT
3b) VT loses to Duke, beats UVA

Winfield Featherston said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Winfield Featherston said...

GT is not mathematically out of it yet. No scenarios?

Brendan said...

Remember, this is all assuming UVA wins out. GT can't win the division if that happens, but they can win if we lose. I didn't really do any GT-wins scenarios because this is a UVA blog, despite the GT flair yesterday :P

Winfield Featherston said...

eh. fair enough. I'll accept the response.