Sunday, May 6, 2012
final lacrosse bracketology
Here we are: the final projection.
A couple surprises, mostly that Yale knocked off Cornell, then Princeton to win the Ivy League and the autobid. Second surprise: that Princeton still looks pretty strong for a bid. An RPI higher than UNC's means they'll probably be selected. (Canisius upsetting Siena, also a big surprise, but all it does is shuffle things around between the one-bid leagues.)
I think the eight hosts are reasonably obvious. I'm not 100% convinced I'll have all 16 teams right - it's a little tougher than last year - but the eight hosts look pretty definite. And by the way, I'd have set up, for the second year in a row, a Maryland-UNC battle at the 8-seed spot, but that'd essentially have forced Colgate and Lehigh to play, and they can't.
There's also a pretty big gap between Colgate/Maryland and the actual bubble teams. It comes down to Princeton, Denver, Fairfield, and Penn State. OSU and Cornell don't have a case. Penn State would've had a stronger case, but Notre Dame losing to St. John's on Thursday hurt. That was their best win. PSU doesn't really have the RPI or quality win factor. Fairfield and Denver - well, they're close, but Denver beat Fairfield. Also, Duke. So that, I think, gives them the edge.
For the #1 seed, it's between Loyola and Duke, and now that Loyola has gotten through their relatively tough conference tournament, their RPI is far and away the best, and they have a 14-1 record blemished only by a loss to Johns Hopkins. This is an easy choice. And Duke is a fairly clear #2.
Yale's upset of Princeton is bad news for us, at least according to this projection. It means that UMass has a readymade New England opponent very neatly placed both geographically and resume-wise. Otherwise I'd have put Syracuse there instead. Now? Well, it's kind of hard not to stick us with the Orange. Princeton and Hopkins are natural opponents; Denver and ND, same. This is not a very good draw for us at all, so, come 9:00 tonight (the selection show is on ESPNUVA) you better hope I'm wrong.
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