Sunday, October 24, 2010
blogpoll ballot: week 8
Well. If you looked with a discerning eye, Oregon probably jumped out at you the hardest. So that probably requires a little explanation, given that conventional wisdom calls Oregon the best in the country. Why is Oregon 7th when they will be #1 everywhere - including the eventual results of this poll? A couple reasons:
1) We're voting on resumes up to this point, not on who we think is the actual best team in the country. Oregon would probably smoke Auburn right now. The media polls don't resume-vote. If I were an AP voter, I'd put Oregon #1 too.
2) My system isn't nice to teams with bye weeks. (See: Boise State and their two byes.) MSU and TCU took advantage of not having a bye to leapfrog higher than I'd put them if I were ranking by "who would beat whom." They'll get theirs.
3) Missouri? Well. First, consider the records of their respective opposition: 17-33 (Oregon) vs. 29-21 (Missouri.) No contest. Oregon's third-best win is a whupping of 2-5 Tennessee; Missouri's is a very solid 26-0 win over a considerably better Colorado team. (If you doubt that Colorado is that much better than Tennessee, take a gander at Georgia's schedule.) Missouri's sixth-best game is a win over 5-2 San Diego State; Oregon played New Mexico. 72-0 is certainly a drubbing, but I tend to be more impressed by degree of difficulty rather than end result. SDSU will be going bowling; New Mexico would lose to at least half of the teams in I-AA, they're that horrible.
Fact is, should they both end up undefeated, Missouri will have a far stronger resume than Oregon. It's stronger now. Their non-conference schedule is light-years better. (It's not Oregon's fault Tennessee and New Mexico suck ass, but they do.) I'm totally comfortable ranking Missouri higher than Oregon.
The rest of the ballot seems logical enough, except for my mild surprise that Nevada made it back on. A rare example of a bye week team going up rather than down. I guess it's not too surprising. Michigan took the bye week hit and their strength of schedule took a major beating thanks to the suckitude of UConn and Notre Dame, as well as Iowa's loss. The other contenders are Hawaii (extra loss and a couple unconvincing wins hurt) and Baylor (just, no.)
Edit: this is the new and improved second edition, which, per very logical suggestion, drops Alabama a few notches. Also drops MSU a couple places, because that would have put them #2. No team that beat Florida Atlantic by 13 is the #2 team in the nation.
Comments, as always, strongly invited. A strong argument in favor of getting rid of NC State and/or Nevada will find traction, as long as it doesn't involve Syracuse or West Virginia. I was charitable just to include Syracuse in the calculations this week, and the system bombed them. WVU likewise, you know, for losing to Syracuse.