Sunday, December 5, 2010
Friday, December 3, 2010
game preview: Virginia Tech
Date/Time: December 5, 6:00 PM
TV: FSN
History against the Hokies: 79-53
Last matchup: VT 61, UVA 55; 2/13/10
Last game: UVA 87, Minnesota 79 (11/29); Purdue 58, VT 55 (12/1)
Opposing blogs: Gobbler Country, The Key Play
KenPom stats:
National ranking: UVA #80; VT #48
Offense: UVA #47; VT #90
Defense: UVA #134; VT #18
ACC basketball season officially kicks off on Sunday; the first conference game of the young year is the VT game this weekend. I'm hoping that maybe Blacksburg will still be hung over from the ACCCG the day before, but it didn't work out real well the last time I tried to use that game as a crutch of hope. It is, of course, even sillier to hope VT students will be studying for finals.
HOW WE CAN WIN
- Win the fouls battle. Tech is one of the worst teams in the country in this regard, averaging over 21 per game. UVA is one of the better ones, with under 17. Jeff Allen is the biggest culprit, having only once this season managed to keep it under four, and fouling out of three of Tech's seven games. Tech's other starting bigs, Victor Davila and Terrell Bell, have each fouled out of a game as well, and they have a real tendency to be forced to play the game in foul trouble. Tech's propensity to foul aside, UVA must not get into foul trouble, not with Will Sherrill sidelined. Assane Sene and Mike Scott need to keep their noses clean or UVA's lack of frontcourt depth is going to be abused by Tech's bigs. And of course, the corollary to Win The Fouls Battle is Make Your Free Throws.
- Defend Malcolm Delaney. Jontel, that's you. Delaney was a hideous, draft-stock-murdering 2-for-18 against Purdue, and Tech goes as Delaney goes. In their loss to Kansas State he was 6-of-18 from the field. Delaney typically plays every minute of the game, so Jontel Evans can be his primary defender but Mu Farrakhan and probably Billy Baron will have to take their turns as well. And really, it ought to be a team effort, with Tony Bennett drawing up rotation responsibilities and implementing the Delaney Rules - I'm willing to let Tech's other players take their cracks at the basket, because they're not likely to be able to carry the team if Delaney is having another lousy night.
- Slow it down on offense and play perfect transition D. This is kind of a generic key to the game here, much like "don't throw interceptions" and "for the love of God stop false-starting" in football. It applies to every ACC game, especially every road ACC game, especially every road ACC game in gyms where they hate us. Turnovers on the offensive end and easy buckets for the opponents in transition will get you slaughtered in the ACC, especially on the road, and unfortunately that's exactly the kind of mistake UVA's been prone to this season. Recall a sequence in the Minny game in which Minny was able to answer a Joe Harris three-pointer with one of their own, because the team loafed back in transition and failed to mark the one guy on the court (Blake Hoffarber) that should never go undefended. Bennett called a time-out immediately and ripped the team for it, and it didn't happen again. Even one time is one too many in the ACC.
HOW WE CAN LOSE
- Fatigue. Hey, it's a factor. Charlottesville to Palo Alto to Maui to Charlottesville to Minneapolis to Charlottesville to Blacksburg to Charlottesville is a nasty travel schedule. It's the kind of thing that can multiply the hostile-gym factor and turn a close game into a downhill snowball. Fortunately, Tech is the team with the more recent game, and it was a real letdown-type, an overtime loss in a game they probably should have won. But it's UVA that'll really have to guard against a tired, let's-just-get-out-of-here mentality.
- Get out-athleticized. Quick, athletic guards have been the bane of our offense this year, and Tech as a whole is probably the more athletic team. (UVA has athletes, it's just that most of them have some serious holes in their game.) This is one of the few teams that won't be able to exploit a size advantage over UVA, but Delaney is one of the conference's top players and Tech's forwards are fast movers for their size.
HOW THE GAME WILL GO
It'd be foolhardy to predict a win, but I have to think the odds of it are better than many may think. VT will likely be unable to take advantage of two of UVA's three biggest weaknesses. Nothing we can do about the youth, but Tech is actually a smaller team than UVA is and they don't roll very deep. Injuries have had a lot to do with both. The tallest player we'll see is 6'8" Victor Davila, except for the likely five-minute cameo by Cadarian Raines. With the exception of the Delaney-Evans matchup, UVA will usually have the taller players on the court. And Seth Greenberg's "rotation" involves playing his starters for over 30 minutes apiece.
But Tech is a top defensive team, and it's not easy to go inside on them. In order to win, the aerial assault has to be in good working order, so as to loosen up the lane a little bit. Tech plays physical - a little bit dirty - and they're not afraid to create contact. It's a style our freshmen won't be used to, and therein lies VT's ability to take advantage of the third weakness. Above all else, composure and ice under pressure will be needed.
A low-scoring game is in the works here. Neither team is equipped for a 90-point shootout, nor is it their style. Last year's games were 65-65 and 61-55 after 40 minutes, and there's no reason for that to change. The good news is, that tends to work in favor of the underdog. But VT will be desperate, having just blown their best chance at a resume-garnishing win for the tournament. And they'll have the best player on the court, and they'll be at home. Those are the kind of factors that usually tip a game in a team's direction. KenPom projects a 19% chance at a UVA win; I think the number is higher than that, but still an uphill battle.
Thursday, December 2, 2010
the recruit: Rob Burns
Name: Rob Burns
Position: DE
Hometown: Ashburn
School: Stone Bridge
Height: 6'7"
Weight: 230
ESPN: 77; three stars; #79 DE
Rivals: 5.6; three stars; VA #15
Scout: three stars; #56 DE
Other offers: Penn State, Stanford, Boston College, Michigan State, Maryland, Syracuse, Rutgers, Duke, Wake Forest
Rob Burns was one of the first guys Mike London offered upon being named head coach, and his name was at the top of the board for most UVA fans. UVA was his first offer (and remained so for a few months), his classroom work is strong, and he hails from one of the state's top teams. Priority recruit. So it might have worried people who read the CavsCorner article about Thompson Brown when Brown referred to London telling him something about "closing out the defensive line class."
Burns was obviously a touch worried too, because he scooted his decision timeframe up and was committed to UVA within a few days of Brown, making sure to get in ahead of a visit day that he wasn't going to attend.
One of the few UVA commits still in the hunt for a state title, Burns anchors one of the state's top defenses. Stone Bridge held regular season opponents to 56 points all season (and often scored about that many in one game), shut out four teams, and held one hapless opponent to 13 yards of total offense all game long. He plays tight end, too (and lacrosse); a natural fit for a guy who's as tall as a power forward and described by his coach as fast. But he's defense all the way in college.
And he'll almost certainly stick at end, too. Despite his height - 6'7, 6'8 is tall for a lineman; you need leverage, after all - ESPN and his coach both credit him with good ability to get down and keep his pad level low. That said, he's probably too tall and definitely too thin for a move to tackle unless he adds another 50 pounds, minimum. (This is the same coaching staff that thinks 240-pound John-Kevin Dolce should be used as a run-stopping tackle, but still.) Five defensive ends are listed on the incoming section of the depth chart, but Burns is one of the most likely to stick there.
All four of UVA's two-deep defensive ends return in 2011, plus DE number five, Billy Schautz. (I expect Jeremiah Mathis to return to the defense next year.) Even if the somewhat underwhelming Zane Parr loses his starting job, Jake Snyder is a third-year sophomore next year, and field-ready. Chances are not good for a true freshman DE to see the field. After that, though, it's open season on the two-deep, with Parr and Cam Johnson graduating next year. Just by virtue of being so damn tall (and plenty athletic), Burns is one of the freakier physical specimens in the incoming class. With his speed, height, and reasonably impressive array of college offers, he should be a quality pass-rusher as well as able to close off the edge to outside running plays. Barring any five-star superfreaks in the upcoming recruiting classes, there's no reason to believe Burns shouldn't develop into at least a two-year starter on the D-line.
Position: DE
Hometown: Ashburn
School: Stone Bridge
Height: 6'7"
Weight: 230
ESPN: 77; three stars; #79 DE
Rivals: 5.6; three stars; VA #15
Scout: three stars; #56 DE
Other offers: Penn State, Stanford, Boston College, Michigan State, Maryland, Syracuse, Rutgers, Duke, Wake Forest
Rob Burns was one of the first guys Mike London offered upon being named head coach, and his name was at the top of the board for most UVA fans. UVA was his first offer (and remained so for a few months), his classroom work is strong, and he hails from one of the state's top teams. Priority recruit. So it might have worried people who read the CavsCorner article about Thompson Brown when Brown referred to London telling him something about "closing out the defensive line class."
Burns was obviously a touch worried too, because he scooted his decision timeframe up and was committed to UVA within a few days of Brown, making sure to get in ahead of a visit day that he wasn't going to attend.
One of the few UVA commits still in the hunt for a state title, Burns anchors one of the state's top defenses. Stone Bridge held regular season opponents to 56 points all season (and often scored about that many in one game), shut out four teams, and held one hapless opponent to 13 yards of total offense all game long. He plays tight end, too (and lacrosse); a natural fit for a guy who's as tall as a power forward and described by his coach as fast. But he's defense all the way in college.
And he'll almost certainly stick at end, too. Despite his height - 6'7, 6'8 is tall for a lineman; you need leverage, after all - ESPN and his coach both credit him with good ability to get down and keep his pad level low. That said, he's probably too tall and definitely too thin for a move to tackle unless he adds another 50 pounds, minimum. (This is the same coaching staff that thinks 240-pound John-Kevin Dolce should be used as a run-stopping tackle, but still.) Five defensive ends are listed on the incoming section of the depth chart, but Burns is one of the most likely to stick there.
All four of UVA's two-deep defensive ends return in 2011, plus DE number five, Billy Schautz. (I expect Jeremiah Mathis to return to the defense next year.) Even if the somewhat underwhelming Zane Parr loses his starting job, Jake Snyder is a third-year sophomore next year, and field-ready. Chances are not good for a true freshman DE to see the field. After that, though, it's open season on the two-deep, with Parr and Cam Johnson graduating next year. Just by virtue of being so damn tall (and plenty athletic), Burns is one of the freakier physical specimens in the incoming class. With his speed, height, and reasonably impressive array of college offers, he should be a quality pass-rusher as well as able to close off the edge to outside running plays. Barring any five-star superfreaks in the upcoming recruiting classes, there's no reason to believe Burns shouldn't develop into at least a two-year starter on the D-line.
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
an interview with hokies forward jeff allen
From Old Virginia is proud to present its first interview with a walking, talking actual ballplayer. In anticipation of Sunday's hardwood matchup with the despised Hokies, I was able to sit down and have a chat with Virginia Tech senior forward Jeff Allen. I'm sure you'll find him as enlightening and engaging as I did.
First off, let me just thank you for coming, Jeff. Pleasure to have you.
Well, nobody dragged you in here. Let's get down to brass tacks. What's your impression of UVA's hoops team this year, in Tony Bennett's second season?
True, there's definitely some bad blood between the two. Let's talk about the Hokies themselves. About a week ago I bet on VT to cover against Cal State-Whatever and naturally you guys came up one point shy. Any thoughts on your performance in that game?
Ahh, true. You did foul out of that one, as indeed you've done in three of the Hokies' six games this year. That is a truly astounding statistic. I guess the lesson learned for all good Hoos thinking of betting on the Hokies is: don't. They'll screw you every time. Do you think you'll be able to avoid fouling out against UVA's Mike Scott?
No? Well, it can't be denied that Scott is a hell of a player. I can see how the emotions of a game against your rivals at home could get out of hand. Still, don't you think -
Quiet down in the peanut gallery, oft-photoshopped obscene gesture moppet. Where did a kid your age learn to do that anyway?
Oh. Yeah, I should have guessed. Well, he fits right in anyway. So, Jeff, before we wrap this up, any predictions on Sunday's game?
Yikes, the double deuce. You have to admire a man whose convictions are strong. Well, it's been a pleasure, Jeff. Most insightful. Hope to have you back on the blog again sometime in the future - perhaps after another Hokies trip to Maryland, I'm sure you know how those fans can inspire a little emotion in a guy. You'll find the door over on the right.
First off, let me just thank you for coming, Jeff. Pleasure to have you.
Well, nobody dragged you in here. Let's get down to brass tacks. What's your impression of UVA's hoops team this year, in Tony Bennett's second season?
True, there's definitely some bad blood between the two. Let's talk about the Hokies themselves. About a week ago I bet on VT to cover against Cal State-Whatever and naturally you guys came up one point shy. Any thoughts on your performance in that game?
Ahh, true. You did foul out of that one, as indeed you've done in three of the Hokies' six games this year. That is a truly astounding statistic. I guess the lesson learned for all good Hoos thinking of betting on the Hokies is: don't. They'll screw you every time. Do you think you'll be able to avoid fouling out against UVA's Mike Scott?
No? Well, it can't be denied that Scott is a hell of a player. I can see how the emotions of a game against your rivals at home could get out of hand. Still, don't you think -
Quiet down in the peanut gallery, oft-photoshopped obscene gesture moppet. Where did a kid your age learn to do that anyway?
Oh. Yeah, I should have guessed. Well, he fits right in anyway. So, Jeff, before we wrap this up, any predictions on Sunday's game?
Yikes, the double deuce. You have to admire a man whose convictions are strong. Well, it's been a pleasure, Jeff. Most insightful. Hope to have you back on the blog again sometime in the future - perhaps after another Hokies trip to Maryland, I'm sure you know how those fans can inspire a little emotion in a guy. You'll find the door over on the right.
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
minny-haha, or, a hoopstravaganza
I keep saying I'll get around to basketball and now that football season is over, I can do that in spades. Seven games into the season, the team is 4-3, with horrific games, beautiful games, games that were both, and already a significant injury. In other words, Virginia Basketball is back.
With six freshmen, five of whom play, and a string of upperclassmen most of whom have glaring weaknesses, I warned you to expect "a lot of facepalm basketball, plenty of inconsistency, and a couple blowout losses." And because there's legitimate ACC talent, the year should also provide a couple wins for Tony Bennett to hang his hat on.
So in that sense, the first seven games have been a perfect microcosm of the season so far. The team looked awful against Stanford and Washington, providing us with a glimpse of what things look like when they turn the ball over. They looked great in a stretch against Wichita State and for a longer stretch against Minnesota, showing us what happens when they don't. And hey, it's gonna be awfully hard to repeat the 10-for-13 3-point showing against Minnesota, but then again it's about time our own shots started falling like that because somehow our opponents - Washington especially - never seemed to miss a shot either. Some folks seem to think that's because of Bennett's pack-line defense having a weakness against threes, and maybe it does if you don't play it right. But if a properly executed pack-line caused opponents to shoot above 50% from three-land, Tony Bennett would be an assistant coach at Wisconsin-Green Bay, not a head coach in the ACC with Sweet 16 experience.
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Lessons learned so far, bulletized:
- The offense can execute very well if you let them, but aggressive man defense, especially if you hound the ball, causes us to commit inordinate amounts of turnovers. Stanford fans will fall in love with that scrappy little punk Aaron Bright over the next four years, because he's lightning-quick, junkyard-dog-nasty on the ball, and when he creates a steal (which is often) it always results in fast-break points because he can shoot and pass. If your team has an Aaron Bright, or a Jontel Evans, or someone who can close off passing lanes outside the arc, you'll murder UVA. (Al Nolen is that type of player and probably would have swung the Minny game their way.) If not, we got a chance.
- This team is wildly overmatched against legitimate contenders, but should be able to handle mid-majors and the dregs of BCS conferences, and at least compete most nights against fringe tournament teams.
- The size disadvantage in the middle is about as bad as we thought it'd be. "The ACC is all about guard play" is the mantra, but that's because everyone has guard play - the middle (especially big-man defense) is what separates contenders from pretenders.
- The execution is better than last year. The combination of players with an extra year in the system and players that are starting fresh without prehammered notions has ensured that.
- Except when the aforementioned aggressiveness on defense comes into play. Then it falls apart like a Jenga tower.
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Here are way-too-early impressions of each player so far:
Jontel Evans: Doing about what he's expected to. He's played consistently heavy minutes, and his shooting is better. The team's results are a lot better when he doesn't turn the ball over; he's got to cut that down a little, but his numbers there aren't too much of a liability. Without doubt, Evans has become one of the key building blocks. Needs to improve free-throw shooting; a guard can't be below .600.
Mustapha Farrakhan: The early part of the year has been classic Mu. Against UW he shot 1-for-8 and missed all four from behind the arc. After a solid 5-of-7 performance against Oklahoma, he tried his personal best to lose the Wichita State game with no points, no assists, three turnovers, and four fouls. It was sometime in the middle of that game I decided I knew who'd be giving up his minutes when Sammy gets back. Then he plays like the whole Minny game and explodes. How's this sound: 23 points on 8/14 and 4/5 shooting, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, 0 turnovers, 1 foul.
I mean wut? Who does that? Whenever anyone asks me about Mustapha Farrakhan I will point to those two games. That's his career in a nutshell. Mu is like some unpredictable Warcraft goblin creature that you'd never deploy if you had better options because he's as likely to demolish your own forces as the enemy's. But he will demolish something. I still think it's his minutes that are most likely to be cut into when Sammy gets back.
Will Regan: Hasn't been used much. His minutes have been entirely the mid-first-half kind when you're trying to get a guy quality minutes but you don't want the situation to be all that critical. Hasn't been real effective in that time, either.
Assane Sene: Man, if we could get him scrapping for loose balls and rebounds all the time the way he was against Minny that would do wonders for our defense. Honestly, he hasn't played especially well all year - minutes are steady, rebounds are down, fouls are up - but he was absolutely crucial to winning that Minnesota game. It's not like we have nobody to play center, it's just that our biggest guy has hands of granite. But they had a way of finding the ball yesterday. More of that and we may just be able to stop other teams from scoring in the paint whenever they feel like it.
One thing he's improved drastically: free throws. That's another thing that could be huge. A big man like him should get to shoot plenty of free throws. He hit them with regularity before the Minny game and then got to shoot eight against the Gophers and made most of them. He's already hit more free throws than he made all of last year.
Joe Harris: Wherever this guy came from, I'd like a few more plz. So far the absolute ballin'est member of the freshman class. His drive to the hoop is a pleasant surprise, his shot is as good as advertised, and he rebounds. Only complaint: he's a big culprit in the turnover department. Too many for a guy who's not a distributor. Otherwise, he's been the team's second-best player, easy....
Billy Baron: ....which is what we all thought we'd be saying about this guy instead, the way he played against William & Mary. Since the first two games he's fallen right off the radar and is another candidate to lose his minutes to Zeglinski. He hasn't been a liability, except for the shots he's missed, but he hasn't brought much to the table either, and since the Upstart game, he can't find the bucket. Zero points in each of the last two. Way, way too early to write him off, even for just this season, but I think Bennett expects more out of him and will find a way to get it.
Will Sherrill: He looks stronger this year. And he had a very good Maui tournament and was having a great game against Minnesota, up until the scary-looking injury. That injury could have some nasty long-term ripple effects because nobody knows Bennett's system like Sherrill. Unfortunately I don't think he'll be back for at least a month, maybe two, if he's not out for the entire season. Just a feeling I have. Best-case scenario is that Regan and Akil Mitchell can absorb his minutes, with Sene playing a little more as well. We'll see what happens against VT on Sunday, but I can't say I like the Sherrill-less near future very much.
Mike Scott: Simply outstanding. Little bit of an off-game against Stanford, but I can't give much higher praise than to say he's been every bit the senior captain and leader he needed to be. Three double-doubles in a row in three important games, and the and-1 he converted at the end of the Minnesota game was the biggest play of the game.
KT Harrell: Little bit of an X-factor, except that he's had his good games in losses and kind of faded out in the wins. Still, I haven't been able to shake the idea that when Harrell is playing well, the team is better. He's also been one of the team's better backcourt defenders. He and Sene are probably the two players for whom improvement in certain areas and consistency would bring the most benefit to the team.
Akil Mitchell: Argh. I think it's been evident why he was considered the most likely redshirt candidate. Not much in the way of consistent minutes and he looks lost when he gets them. Especially in the disastrous two-minute sequence against Wichita State that culminated in the world's ugliest and most obvious traveling call, since which point he hasn't come unglued from the bench. Sherrill's injury may force Bennett to make a painful choice between more minutes for Mitchell or taking the redshirt off James Johnson, but Johnson doesn't really play the same position as Sherrill and Mitchell, so the ball's in Mitchell's court somewhat.
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Questions for the future:
- Who will replace Sherrill in the lineup? As I said, ideally some combination of Regan and Mitchell (actually, ideally they'll tell us Sherrill just had a nasty bruise and will be good to go Sunday, but no), but I think mainly we'll see Regan with a few extra minutes per game, and more of Assane Sene. It'll be hard to give Scott more minutes than he's getting, but he'll get a few too. I doubt Johnson's redshirt comes off unless as a last resort - i.e., someone else gets hurt too.
- Who does Sammy replace in the lineup? Baron's minutes have already come down probably as far as they're going to, unless he regresses even further. He probably won't, so the minutes are going to steady up. Mu's maddening habit of either exploding or taking a dump on the court means he'll probably be the primary victim of Sammy's return. He's already been bumped from the starting lineup.
- How about the rest of the schedule? I'm a lot more confident about the rest of the so-called 50/50 games (ISU, LSU, Oregon) than I was before - call 'em 65/35 games now - and of course the tomato cans are still the tomato cans. And a lot of the rest of the ACC has given us plenty of cause to be confident too. KenPom's projection is 15-15, 5-11, and that seems fair enough, but on the low end.
With six freshmen, five of whom play, and a string of upperclassmen most of whom have glaring weaknesses, I warned you to expect "a lot of facepalm basketball, plenty of inconsistency, and a couple blowout losses." And because there's legitimate ACC talent, the year should also provide a couple wins for Tony Bennett to hang his hat on.
So in that sense, the first seven games have been a perfect microcosm of the season so far. The team looked awful against Stanford and Washington, providing us with a glimpse of what things look like when they turn the ball over. They looked great in a stretch against Wichita State and for a longer stretch against Minnesota, showing us what happens when they don't. And hey, it's gonna be awfully hard to repeat the 10-for-13 3-point showing against Minnesota, but then again it's about time our own shots started falling like that because somehow our opponents - Washington especially - never seemed to miss a shot either. Some folks seem to think that's because of Bennett's pack-line defense having a weakness against threes, and maybe it does if you don't play it right. But if a properly executed pack-line caused opponents to shoot above 50% from three-land, Tony Bennett would be an assistant coach at Wisconsin-Green Bay, not a head coach in the ACC with Sweet 16 experience.
*******************************************
Lessons learned so far, bulletized:
- The offense can execute very well if you let them, but aggressive man defense, especially if you hound the ball, causes us to commit inordinate amounts of turnovers. Stanford fans will fall in love with that scrappy little punk Aaron Bright over the next four years, because he's lightning-quick, junkyard-dog-nasty on the ball, and when he creates a steal (which is often) it always results in fast-break points because he can shoot and pass. If your team has an Aaron Bright, or a Jontel Evans, or someone who can close off passing lanes outside the arc, you'll murder UVA. (Al Nolen is that type of player and probably would have swung the Minny game their way.) If not, we got a chance.
- This team is wildly overmatched against legitimate contenders, but should be able to handle mid-majors and the dregs of BCS conferences, and at least compete most nights against fringe tournament teams.
- The size disadvantage in the middle is about as bad as we thought it'd be. "The ACC is all about guard play" is the mantra, but that's because everyone has guard play - the middle (especially big-man defense) is what separates contenders from pretenders.
- The execution is better than last year. The combination of players with an extra year in the system and players that are starting fresh without prehammered notions has ensured that.
- Except when the aforementioned aggressiveness on defense comes into play. Then it falls apart like a Jenga tower.
*******************************************
Here are way-too-early impressions of each player so far:
Jontel Evans: Doing about what he's expected to. He's played consistently heavy minutes, and his shooting is better. The team's results are a lot better when he doesn't turn the ball over; he's got to cut that down a little, but his numbers there aren't too much of a liability. Without doubt, Evans has become one of the key building blocks. Needs to improve free-throw shooting; a guard can't be below .600.
Mustapha Farrakhan: The early part of the year has been classic Mu. Against UW he shot 1-for-8 and missed all four from behind the arc. After a solid 5-of-7 performance against Oklahoma, he tried his personal best to lose the Wichita State game with no points, no assists, three turnovers, and four fouls. It was sometime in the middle of that game I decided I knew who'd be giving up his minutes when Sammy gets back. Then he plays like the whole Minny game and explodes. How's this sound: 23 points on 8/14 and 4/5 shooting, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, 0 turnovers, 1 foul.
I mean wut? Who does that? Whenever anyone asks me about Mustapha Farrakhan I will point to those two games. That's his career in a nutshell. Mu is like some unpredictable Warcraft goblin creature that you'd never deploy if you had better options because he's as likely to demolish your own forces as the enemy's. But he will demolish something. I still think it's his minutes that are most likely to be cut into when Sammy gets back.
Will Regan: Hasn't been used much. His minutes have been entirely the mid-first-half kind when you're trying to get a guy quality minutes but you don't want the situation to be all that critical. Hasn't been real effective in that time, either.
Assane Sene: Man, if we could get him scrapping for loose balls and rebounds all the time the way he was against Minny that would do wonders for our defense. Honestly, he hasn't played especially well all year - minutes are steady, rebounds are down, fouls are up - but he was absolutely crucial to winning that Minnesota game. It's not like we have nobody to play center, it's just that our biggest guy has hands of granite. But they had a way of finding the ball yesterday. More of that and we may just be able to stop other teams from scoring in the paint whenever they feel like it.
One thing he's improved drastically: free throws. That's another thing that could be huge. A big man like him should get to shoot plenty of free throws. He hit them with regularity before the Minny game and then got to shoot eight against the Gophers and made most of them. He's already hit more free throws than he made all of last year.
Joe Harris: Wherever this guy came from, I'd like a few more plz. So far the absolute ballin'est member of the freshman class. His drive to the hoop is a pleasant surprise, his shot is as good as advertised, and he rebounds. Only complaint: he's a big culprit in the turnover department. Too many for a guy who's not a distributor. Otherwise, he's been the team's second-best player, easy....
Billy Baron: ....which is what we all thought we'd be saying about this guy instead, the way he played against William & Mary. Since the first two games he's fallen right off the radar and is another candidate to lose his minutes to Zeglinski. He hasn't been a liability, except for the shots he's missed, but he hasn't brought much to the table either, and since the Upstart game, he can't find the bucket. Zero points in each of the last two. Way, way too early to write him off, even for just this season, but I think Bennett expects more out of him and will find a way to get it.
Will Sherrill: He looks stronger this year. And he had a very good Maui tournament and was having a great game against Minnesota, up until the scary-looking injury. That injury could have some nasty long-term ripple effects because nobody knows Bennett's system like Sherrill. Unfortunately I don't think he'll be back for at least a month, maybe two, if he's not out for the entire season. Just a feeling I have. Best-case scenario is that Regan and Akil Mitchell can absorb his minutes, with Sene playing a little more as well. We'll see what happens against VT on Sunday, but I can't say I like the Sherrill-less near future very much.
Mike Scott: Simply outstanding. Little bit of an off-game against Stanford, but I can't give much higher praise than to say he's been every bit the senior captain and leader he needed to be. Three double-doubles in a row in three important games, and the and-1 he converted at the end of the Minnesota game was the biggest play of the game.
KT Harrell: Little bit of an X-factor, except that he's had his good games in losses and kind of faded out in the wins. Still, I haven't been able to shake the idea that when Harrell is playing well, the team is better. He's also been one of the team's better backcourt defenders. He and Sene are probably the two players for whom improvement in certain areas and consistency would bring the most benefit to the team.
Akil Mitchell: Argh. I think it's been evident why he was considered the most likely redshirt candidate. Not much in the way of consistent minutes and he looks lost when he gets them. Especially in the disastrous two-minute sequence against Wichita State that culminated in the world's ugliest and most obvious traveling call, since which point he hasn't come unglued from the bench. Sherrill's injury may force Bennett to make a painful choice between more minutes for Mitchell or taking the redshirt off James Johnson, but Johnson doesn't really play the same position as Sherrill and Mitchell, so the ball's in Mitchell's court somewhat.
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Questions for the future:
- Who will replace Sherrill in the lineup? As I said, ideally some combination of Regan and Mitchell (actually, ideally they'll tell us Sherrill just had a nasty bruise and will be good to go Sunday, but no), but I think mainly we'll see Regan with a few extra minutes per game, and more of Assane Sene. It'll be hard to give Scott more minutes than he's getting, but he'll get a few too. I doubt Johnson's redshirt comes off unless as a last resort - i.e., someone else gets hurt too.
- Who does Sammy replace in the lineup? Baron's minutes have already come down probably as far as they're going to, unless he regresses even further. He probably won't, so the minutes are going to steady up. Mu's maddening habit of either exploding or taking a dump on the court means he'll probably be the primary victim of Sammy's return. He's already been bumped from the starting lineup.
- How about the rest of the schedule? I'm a lot more confident about the rest of the so-called 50/50 games (ISU, LSU, Oregon) than I was before - call 'em 65/35 games now - and of course the tomato cans are still the tomato cans. And a lot of the rest of the ACC has given us plenty of cause to be confident too. KenPom's projection is 15-15, 5-11, and that seems fair enough, but on the low end.
i'm an idiot
OK, this week's poll study results are up. A day late due to Thanksgiving holiday weekend. The usual etc. etc.
There is one major, important change to the numbers over the whole poll. It's like this. The first week I did this, one of the voters' ballots wasn't listed - either he forgot to send it in, or there was a glitch, or whatever. So I averaged by 59 instead of 60. The problem is, I've been doing that the whole time. When I wrote the formula to weight the regional averages, I remembered to add the extra ballot to the SEC total but not the overall total, so all the averages in the "total" column were too high. Overall gist: bias looked stronger than it really was.
It was a quick fix, but it changed the numbers around a bit and on top of that it's bloody embarrassing. Won't affect things much going forward, though, except that if you were hoping for evidence of regional bias, it's a lot less likely to occur.
There is one major, important change to the numbers over the whole poll. It's like this. The first week I did this, one of the voters' ballots wasn't listed - either he forgot to send it in, or there was a glitch, or whatever. So I averaged by 59 instead of 60. The problem is, I've been doing that the whole time. When I wrote the formula to weight the regional averages, I remembered to add the extra ballot to the SEC total but not the overall total, so all the averages in the "total" column were too high. Overall gist: bias looked stronger than it really was.
It was a quick fix, but it changed the numbers around a bit and on top of that it's bloody embarrassing. Won't affect things much going forward, though, except that if you were hoping for evidence of regional bias, it's a lot less likely to occur.
Monday, November 29, 2010
weekend review
The end of the football season means the end of this post as a regular thing, but it'll still go up every now and again when needed. To do things differently just for the sake of it, we'll start with the recruits and their playoff exploits:
Hermitage 17, L.C. Bird 14: Anthony Harris got Bird in front, 14-10, with a touchdown run, but Curtis Grant recovered a fumble in the end zone for Hermitage to advance them past Bird and give them the Central Region championship.
Phoebus 12, Hampton 7: Daquan Romero starred in Phoebus's region-clinching win over David Watford and Hampton. Romero, playing TE, caught Phoebus's only touchdown, and sacked Watford to set up a safety for Phoebus on the next play.
H.D. Woodson 44, Dunbar 12: Darius Redman caught a late touchdown to help Woodson to the DCIAA Turkey Bowl title.
Stone Bridge 35, Hayfield 7 (Rob Burns)
Wilde Lake 21, Damascus 14 (Brandon Phelps)
Phelps's season ends just shy of the state finals. Three teams of interest remain: Stone Bridge plays Osbourn next week, Phoebus plays Dinwiddie, and the winners of those two games will meet at Scott Stadium for the Division 5 title. Hermitage goes against Bayside (where hopefully-future Hoo Demetrious Nicholson plays) in the Division 6 semis; the final is also in Charlottesville.
*******************************************
News you can't really use, but you can still read and maybe even enjoy it:
- David Watford hopes to enroll in the spring. The 25-yearly scholarship limit is almost as big a concern as the 85-total limit at this point. In fact, we're already to the point where every new commit means another attrite from the current team, so the 25 limit might even be a bigger concern. If Admissions lets Watford in for the spring semester, one extra player can be squeezed into the class. Not to mention the extra practice time would be a huge help blah blah blah. This is where the influence of new president Teresa Sullivan could be a big help, no?
- Speaking of Sullivan, the latest UVA alumni magazine has a nice profile spread on her, with this relevant quote:
- The all-ACC teams are out, and Chase Minnifield made 1st team and Keith Payne made 2nd. This is entirely fair. It's good especially to see Payne get recognition for the bounceback year.
- Bill Lazor back to the NFL? Lazor says no, the rumortubes say yes. The rumors are that Lazor is looking for a job in the NFL (and will try and get one when the NFL season ends) and Lazor's refutation says (in essence) that he hasn't been contacted for one. Unfortunately a coach's word in the media must always be parsed for loopholes, and it's not hard to find them here. But Lazor is awfully stringent in his denial. Despite what I've read, I don't think there's any concrete reason to believe Lazor won't be back next year. Yet. I do know what the offense looked like last year and what it looked like this year and who's largely to thank for it, and it's gonna be awfully hard to get this rebuilding project off the ground without some continuity at a critical position. That's why London asked for a two-year commitment from his staff. You can never keep a successful coordinator around forever (the Riker-esque refusal to seek a head job of his own on Bud Foster's part notwithstanding) so three, four years down the line, yeah, I think we'd need to look for another OC. But by then there'd be something to build on. There isn't yet.
*******************************************
Part of the reason this post comes a little late is because of basketball awesomeness, but partly it's because I was waiting for good news on the recruiting front. People keep hinting at it. Crossing my fingers for Jay Whitmire myself, the way the hints have been going, although nobody's mentioned any names. Alas, we'll have to wait. Not many changes to the recruiting board then:
- Removed WR Daniel Adams from green (New Mexico commit.)
- Removed QB Lafonte Thourogood from red (VT commit.) Almost a fait accompli after we picked up Watford.
- Moved CB Jeremiah Hendy from yellow to red, since Maryland's been winning and we haven't.
*******************************************
Much more extensive hoopstravaganza tomorrow, but ESPN's always good for some amusement and this seems like an appropriate finish:
Oh....for those hoping to see the weekly AP poll study results, I crave your indulgence. The work was a casualty of the holiday weekend. Publishing will be tomorrow.
Hermitage 17, L.C. Bird 14: Anthony Harris got Bird in front, 14-10, with a touchdown run, but Curtis Grant recovered a fumble in the end zone for Hermitage to advance them past Bird and give them the Central Region championship.
Phoebus 12, Hampton 7: Daquan Romero starred in Phoebus's region-clinching win over David Watford and Hampton. Romero, playing TE, caught Phoebus's only touchdown, and sacked Watford to set up a safety for Phoebus on the next play.
H.D. Woodson 44, Dunbar 12: Darius Redman caught a late touchdown to help Woodson to the DCIAA Turkey Bowl title.
Stone Bridge 35, Hayfield 7 (Rob Burns)
Wilde Lake 21, Damascus 14 (Brandon Phelps)
Phelps's season ends just shy of the state finals. Three teams of interest remain: Stone Bridge plays Osbourn next week, Phoebus plays Dinwiddie, and the winners of those two games will meet at Scott Stadium for the Division 5 title. Hermitage goes against Bayside (where hopefully-future Hoo Demetrious Nicholson plays) in the Division 6 semis; the final is also in Charlottesville.
*******************************************
News you can't really use, but you can still read and maybe even enjoy it:
- David Watford hopes to enroll in the spring. The 25-yearly scholarship limit is almost as big a concern as the 85-total limit at this point. In fact, we're already to the point where every new commit means another attrite from the current team, so the 25 limit might even be a bigger concern. If Admissions lets Watford in for the spring semester, one extra player can be squeezed into the class. Not to mention the extra practice time would be a huge help blah blah blah. This is where the influence of new president Teresa Sullivan could be a big help, no?
- Speaking of Sullivan, the latest UVA alumni magazine has a nice profile spread on her, with this relevant quote:
Sullivan is a strong supporter of collegiate athletics and is an avid football fan, telling one alumni gathering that she hopes the University will one day host ESPN College Gameday.When Sullivan was hired I theorized that her experience at Texas and Michigan could only be beneficial to the athletic department. Sullivan has spent the last two decades plus at two of the best schools in the country at using athletics - football especially - to maximize and enhance the school's overall brand. Football is one of the best ways of doing this: when you think University of Miami, do you think of their highly underestimated academics, or do you think of swagger and Da U? (Yeah, I know: major sampling bias here.) Sullivan, I think, understands this as well as any college president can. There's good reason to believe she'll be a stronger supporter of football and athletics than Casteen was. Casteen was a good president, but I think he saw athletics as something that schools don't get a lot of return on investment from. I think Sullivan, unlike Casteen, sees the important distinction between compromising for athletics and sacrificing for athletics.
- The all-ACC teams are out, and Chase Minnifield made 1st team and Keith Payne made 2nd. This is entirely fair. It's good especially to see Payne get recognition for the bounceback year.
- Bill Lazor back to the NFL? Lazor says no, the rumortubes say yes. The rumors are that Lazor is looking for a job in the NFL (and will try and get one when the NFL season ends) and Lazor's refutation says (in essence) that he hasn't been contacted for one. Unfortunately a coach's word in the media must always be parsed for loopholes, and it's not hard to find them here. But Lazor is awfully stringent in his denial. Despite what I've read, I don't think there's any concrete reason to believe Lazor won't be back next year. Yet. I do know what the offense looked like last year and what it looked like this year and who's largely to thank for it, and it's gonna be awfully hard to get this rebuilding project off the ground without some continuity at a critical position. That's why London asked for a two-year commitment from his staff. You can never keep a successful coordinator around forever (the Riker-esque refusal to seek a head job of his own on Bud Foster's part notwithstanding) so three, four years down the line, yeah, I think we'd need to look for another OC. But by then there'd be something to build on. There isn't yet.
*******************************************
Part of the reason this post comes a little late is because of basketball awesomeness, but partly it's because I was waiting for good news on the recruiting front. People keep hinting at it. Crossing my fingers for Jay Whitmire myself, the way the hints have been going, although nobody's mentioned any names. Alas, we'll have to wait. Not many changes to the recruiting board then:
- Removed WR Daniel Adams from green (New Mexico commit.)
- Removed QB Lafonte Thourogood from red (VT commit.) Almost a fait accompli after we picked up Watford.
- Moved CB Jeremiah Hendy from yellow to red, since Maryland's been winning and we haven't.
*******************************************
Much more extensive hoopstravaganza tomorrow, but ESPN's always good for some amusement and this seems like an appropriate finish:
Speaking of Virginia, just how bad are the Cavaliers in Tony Bennett's second year? The Cavaliers already have three losses .... Virginia hasn't looked competitive any time it's faced a major-conference team not named Oklahoma. (The Sooners don't count. That might be the worst BCS conference team in the country.) Now UVA travels to the barn to face a quality Minnesota team. In the words of Scooby Doo: Ruh roh.UVA 87, Minny 79, as Craig Littlepage spends the rest of the evening amusing himself by digging up old message board threads and, uh, blog posts expressing our fondest hopes of hiring Tubby Smith. I mean, I thought we'd lose to Minnesota too, but I don't get a paycheck to say that.
Oh....for those hoping to see the weekly AP poll study results, I crave your indulgence. The work was a casualty of the holiday weekend. Publishing will be tomorrow.
blogpoll ballot, week 13
As I guessed, Saturday sucked. Not only was I wishing football out of existence by 2:00 (as predicted), I was pretty much wishing existence out of existence thanks to the lingering effects of Friday night's 10-year high school reunion. Who knew it'd take so much beer to make certain people tolerable again?**
Anyway, I literally have no reaction any more to the loss on Saturday. When Matt Millen was still president and chief fuckwit of the Lions, I reached a point where I figured one day he'd be fired and that day would be beautiful, but for now I'd run out of ways to get pissed off about his presence. It's kind of like that. Maybe tomorrow he'll be fired. Maybe we'll win next year. At this point there's nobody to vent at except maybe the evil fates. "It's Al's fault" got old a while ago and London's still in his grace period. So.
**That wasn't nice of me. I actually like my high school class, probably even more so than I used to.
So, ballot. Commentary below.
As predicted, Oregon retook its spot at #2 by playing a legitimate opponent. Some other things:
- The system actually continued to rank Iowa and Florida. What can I say, their wins don't exactly suck. But it seemed silly to rank a 7-5 team over an 8-4 team that beat them, so Mississippi State replaced Florida. Likewise it seemed silly to rank a 7-5 team over a 7-4 team that beat them, but Arizona was too far off the radar to replace Iowa, so I decided on Northern Illinois instead. NIU got the nod over 9-3 Central Florida on account of being 10-2 in a conference that really isn't much worse than UCF's.
- West Virginia, on the other hand, is legit, if a little bumped-up because of Iowa's and Florida's removals. The system likes them for a return to the top 25 even despite their extra bye week, which this system frowns upon. A 9-3 WVU team would be most deserving, assuming a win next week,
- Maryland will likely be a popular pick for a low-end vote or several, but not here. They ended up dead last out of the 30 teams I looked at, and by a longshot. You just can't call their resume a rankable one. Not by any stretch.
Anyway, I literally have no reaction any more to the loss on Saturday. When Matt Millen was still president and chief fuckwit of the Lions, I reached a point where I figured one day he'd be fired and that day would be beautiful, but for now I'd run out of ways to get pissed off about his presence. It's kind of like that. Maybe tomorrow he'll be fired. Maybe we'll win next year. At this point there's nobody to vent at except maybe the evil fates. "It's Al's fault" got old a while ago and London's still in his grace period. So.
**That wasn't nice of me. I actually like my high school class, probably even more so than I used to.
So, ballot. Commentary below.
From Old Virginia Ballot - Week 14
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Auburn Tigers | -- |
| 2 | Oregon Ducks |  1 |
| 3 | TCU Horned Frogs |  -1 |
| 4 | Oklahoma Sooners | 7 |
| 5 | Ohio St. Buckeyes | -- |
| 6 | Missouri Tigers | 4 |
| 7 | Arkansas Razorbacks | 5 |
| 8 | LSU Tigers | -4 |
| 9 | Wisconsin Badgers | 5 |
| 10 | Stanford Cardinal | -4 |
| 11 | Alabama Crimson Tide | -4 |
| 12 | Boise St. Broncos | -4 |
| 13 | Oklahoma St. Cowboys | -4 |
| 14 | Texas A&M Aggies | 2 |
| 15 | Virginia Tech Hokies | -2 |
| 16 | Michigan St. Spartans | 2 |
| 17 | Nebraska Cornhuskers | -2 |
| 18 | Florida St. Seminoles | 2 |
| 19 | South Carolina Gamecocks | -2 |
| 20 | Nevada Wolf Pack | 3 |
| 21 | N.C. State Wolfpack | -2 |
| 22 | Utah Utes | 3 |
| 23 | West Virginia Mountaineers | -- |
| 24 | Mississippi St. Bulldogs | -- |
| 25 | Northern Illinois Huskies | -- |
| Dropouts: Iowa Hawkeyes, Florida Gators, Arizona Wildcats | ||
SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »
As predicted, Oregon retook its spot at #2 by playing a legitimate opponent. Some other things:
- The system actually continued to rank Iowa and Florida. What can I say, their wins don't exactly suck. But it seemed silly to rank a 7-5 team over an 8-4 team that beat them, so Mississippi State replaced Florida. Likewise it seemed silly to rank a 7-5 team over a 7-4 team that beat them, but Arizona was too far off the radar to replace Iowa, so I decided on Northern Illinois instead. NIU got the nod over 9-3 Central Florida on account of being 10-2 in a conference that really isn't much worse than UCF's.
- West Virginia, on the other hand, is legit, if a little bumped-up because of Iowa's and Florida's removals. The system likes them for a return to the top 25 even despite their extra bye week, which this system frowns upon. A 9-3 WVU team would be most deserving, assuming a win next week,
- Maryland will likely be a popular pick for a low-end vote or several, but not here. They ended up dead last out of the 30 teams I looked at, and by a longshot. You just can't call their resume a rankable one. Not by any stretch.
Thursday, November 25, 2010
thanksgiving break
Enjoy your turkey. Regular posting resumes Sundayish, or Monday, or something. Well, Monday at the latest.
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
game preview: Virginia Tech
Forlorn and empty....in everything....forever.Date/Time: November 27, 12:00
TV: Raycom/ESPN3
History against the Hokies: 37-49-5
Last matchup: VT 42, UVA 13; 11/28/09
Last week: BC 17, UVA 13; VT 31, Miami 17
Line: VT by 23.5
Opposing blogs: Gobbler Country, The Key Play
VT season preview
Injury report: None yet, it's a day early. But Keith Payne looks like a go. Barring surprises, we should have a full crew minus the IR guys.
Sigh. This is it. After this weekend it's full speed ahead on basketball, and football is behind us. And chances are, after this weekend we'll all think that's a great thing. I'm not going to wax poetic on what a win would mean because the best thing would be to just let all the losses blend into one another like the rain smearing the makeup of a lonely emo kid, until the day they actually end.
HOW WE CAN WIN
- NO PAYNE, NO GAIN! This was a favorite Wahoo mantra upon Keith Payne's over-heralded arrival as a freshman. It's finally time to put it to good use. You had to know Payne wasn't going to miss this game even if whatever lower extremity kept him out of the BC game was a bloody stump. VT's run defense is suspect; as Gobbler Country informed us, VT likes the nickel package out of necessity, on account of poor linebacker play. Their pass defense is all-conference stuff, but they have the league's second-worst run defense after you-know-who. Give the man 40 carries and he'll get his yards. And it'll keep our hapless defense off the field.
- Keep it close. A win would send a huge message to instate recruits; a close loss would be almost as good. VT fans recognize the need to stomp us into the dirt in order to snuff Mike London's message that our time is coming and their time is over. Frank Beamer recognizes it too, and he won't hesitate to be a ruthless asshole. As with Miami - in fact, even more so - this game is more important for its big-picture recruiting implications than for the this-season effects of the actual result.
- Get the Hokies looking ahead. "Dear Virginia Tech. You may have beaten us once this season, but you ain't shit. Looking forward to seeing you in Charlotte and racking up 50. Sincerely, Russell Wilson." VT has already clinched the division, and as with Miami, a win will mean the opponent didn't bring its A game.
HOW WE CAN LOSE
- Allow them to get Ryan Williams one-on-one with anyone. UVA can stop the run - if the line can swarm the ballcarrier behind the line of scrimmage. VT has the two things which kill our defense more than anything, ever: a mobile quarterback and a tackle-breaking running back. Williams on the edge with a linebacker or cornerback attempting to tackle, especially the way we've tackled all season, means a first down no matter what the yardage. The D-line has to beat its blocks and swarm, or VT will rack up 300+ yards on the ground.
- Get behind early. Again with the Miami game, where UVA racked up a 24-point lead before Miami got on the board. The only recipe for a win here is to get ahead and hang on tight. If we're forced to the air in the hope of getting a quick strike, its over.
HOW THE GAME WILL GO
Oh, you know. Michigan plays Ohio State at the same time as our game on Saturday, so by about 2:00, 2:30 at the latest, I fully expect to be wishing football entirely out of existence. The whole sport.
The spread, I think, is going to be blown apart by one team or another. Either VT wins by 45 - and you know they'll run up the score because Beamer doesn't want London to gain an inch of recruiting ground - or things come together beautifully, Payne gets 175 yards, the defense plays inspired ball, and we lose by 4. A win, I'm not even going to consider the possibility before 00:00 of the fourth quarter. Maybe 00:03, if we're up by two scores. Ha. A low-scoring game favors UVA, a high-scoring game favors VT, and the run defenses are so unearthly poor that the odds of a low-scoring game are microscopically slim.
REST OF THE ACC
Boston College @ Syracuse, 12:00
Miami vs. South Florida, 12:00
NC State @ Maryland, 3:30
Florida State vs. Florida, 3:30
North Carolina @ Duke, 3:30
Clemson vs. South Carolina, 7:00
Wake Forest @ Vanderbilt, 7:30
Georgia Tech @ Georgia, 8:00
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