Monday, November 22, 2010

weekend review, sort of

A little abbreviated this week. Not much happened outside of football, except that all our non-rev presence in NCAA tournaments evaporated, so that wasn't too exciting. I'm saving basketball stuff for a larger post-Thanksgiving mini-extravaganza. Thanksgiving = short week. I'm not posting on damn Thanksgiving Day, I'll be too busy eating and yelling at the Lions.

Recruiting-wise, how does a new commitment sound? Mike London, with an assist from the NCAA Cloud Of Doom, flipped Daquan Romero from UNC. Just this morning, in fact. Another 757 victory for London on the recruiting trail. Romero was on the board a long time ago but committed to UNC way back in the spring and had offers from the usual regional suspects: UVA, WVU, Md., and UNC.

So the recruiting board is updated with that, plus the movement of WRs Daniel Adams and Demetri Knowles from blue to green as space in the class gets ever so limited. The sooner Demetrious Nicholson commits, the better.


High school playoffs update:

Hanover 56, Petersburg 26 - Kevin Green lit up the box score with over 500 yards passing, as well as two touchdowns and two picks, but he still he couldn't keep pace with Hanover.

L.C. Bird 36, Highland Springs 0 - As usual, Anthony Harris didn't need to light the skies with his passing, going 5-for-8 for 112 yards and a touchdown, but Bird's offense is mostly on the ground and they'll be advancing.

Hampton 24, I.C. Norcom 0 - David Watford led Hampton to a win over Kameron Mack's crew with 179 yards passing and a touchdown.

Damascus 33, Quince Orchard 14 - Brandon Phelps caught a pair of touchdown passes to lead Damascus to a regional title.

Good Counsel 42, DeMatha 3 - Stunningly easy game for OLGC in the WCAC championship. Vincent Croce rocks the eyeblack - or eyeblue- of his favorite team:

Hermitage 28, Varina 14 (Diamonte Bailey)
Phoebus 35, Great Bridge 6 (Caleb Taylor/Daquan Romero)
Stone Bridge 36, South Lakes 15 (Rob Burns)
Good Counsel 42, DeMatha 3 (Vincent Croce, Kelby Johnson/Jordan Lomax)

Outlook for the rest of the year is as follows:

- Only 8 of the 23 commitments are still playing.

- Hermitage and L.C. Bird square off on Friday, so either Diamonte Bailey's or Anthony Harris's season will end. Those two haven't played this year.

- Likewise, Hampton and Phoebus also play on Friday in a matchup between David Watford's offense and the defense of Caleb Taylor and Daquan Romero. Phoebus rolled in the regular season, 37-12.

- Rob Burns and Stone Bridge take on Hayfield in the Northern Region.

- Brandon Phelps and Damascus play Wilde Lake in the MPSSAA 3A semifinals.

- The DCIAA Turkey Bowl is on Thanksgiving, but it remains to be seen who H.D. Woodson's opponent will be. Ballou won the game on the field but Dunbar is trying to get in on, essentially, a technicality.

Finally, this being my blog and this also being the high school playoff section of my blog, I'd be remiss if I didn't give you something every now and then which you don't care about in the slightest. Congratulations are in order for my alma mater, the GP South Blue Devils on reaching the Michigan state semifinals before bowing out to powerhouse Harrison. For a team that made the playoffs basically as a wild card at 5-4, pulling off a series of upsets (including one over a previously undefeated team in the regional final) to get further in the playoffs than any team in school history is a monumental achievement. If South can make the state semifinals and beat North all in the same season (believe me, it is not a football school) then there's hope for my other alma mater too.


Wish I had something interesting to point out in the week's AP poll study results, but I don't. Such is life. However, I do have a request. At the end of the regular season I'll commence a longer look at the results with the data organized in some different ways. Here's what I have planned as of now:

- A raw count of overvotes to see which regions were most and least prone to it, as well as a count of overvotes by team to see if my theory is true: big-name teams (such as Miami or USC) tend to get more overvotes than the middle-class (such as Missouri or Stanford) or mid-majors (such as TCU.)

- A re-look at overvotes using standard deviations instead of a simple +5 standards. This might take a while.

- An overall roundup of voters' average rankings of individual teams.

- An answer to the original question: Does regional bias exist in the AP poll? Warning: Answer is not guaranteed not to be wishy-washy.

The request is this: If you can think of other ways you'd like to see the data laid out, let me know in the comments. If you've got a pet theory about the voters and a good way to test it, by all means make noise and I'll see what I can do. The more ideas, the longer it takes, of course, so I might need to make a few cuts if it gets too big, but I'll make every effort.

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