Monday, November 1, 2010

weekend review

Lot of movement on the recruiting board this week. Is some of it just wishful thinking on my part? Maybe. Probably. But it is what it is, I'm just taking it one recruit at a time, just trying to give 110%.

- Moving up: LB Curtis Grant from red to green, LB Travis Hughes from yellow to green, CB Demetrious Nicholson from green to blue. Green is where Grant will stick. I had this conviction that UVA would still be in the hunt when Grant got to decision time, I waffled on it, I'm sticking with my guns now. Grant will have UVA in the back of his head, and at the very least, if he goes instate it'll be UVA and not Tech.

As for Nicholson and Hughes, surely they liked what they saw on Saturday, yes? Remember, with Hughes, he'd dropped UVA from the picture until they went to California and played USC tough. Then he started talking top five and official visits, and he bumped LSU - yes, LSU - to make room for the Hoos. If he liked what he saw at USC, no doubt the Miami game was worth his while.

- Moving down: TE Rory Anderson and LB Troy Gray from blue to green. Gray was supposed to be one of the official visitors on Saturday and didn't go.

- Removed: LB Sean Duggan, off to Boston College. Disappointing but unsurprising.


Nothing major in the world of news, so it's time to check on the high school seniors:

Woodberry Forest 31, St. Christopher's 16: Thompson Brown catches a touchdown in the loss.

Petersburg 44, Prince George 6: Kevin Green passed for 140 yards and ran for 116 and two touchdowns plus a 2PC.

Cox 21, Ocean Lakes 14: OL Ross Burbank, all 300 pounds of him, carries the ball 12 times and scores all three Cox touchdowns in the upset; Cox hands Ocean Lakes just their second loss of the season.

Good Counsel 50, Gonzaga 38: Vincent Croce caught a pass, his fourth of the season and first since September 4. (He's an occasional pass-catching tight end.)

Damascus 39, Clarksburg 0: Good to see Brandon Phelps getting back on the offensive side of the ball. A bad hip has limited him to defense most of the season. This week, he caught six passes for 55 yards and a touchdown, and Damascus clinched top seed in the West Region playoffs.

Hermitage 40, John Marshall 0 (Diamonte Bailey)
L.C. Bird 42, George Wythe 6 (Anthony Harris)
I.C. Norcom 29, Lake Taylor 0 (Kameron Mack)
Phoebus 56, Denbigh 6 (Caleb Taylor)
Kellam 24, Green Run 21 (David Dean)
Hampton 14, Kecoughtan 3 (David Watford)
Menchville 16, Heritage 6 (Clifton Richardson)
Stone Bridge 38, McLean 0 (Rob Burns)
H.D. Woodson 48, Eastern 0 (Darius Redman)
DeMatha 41, Archbishop Carroll 0 (Jordan Lomax, Kelby Johnson)
Myers Park 31, Independence 26 (Adrian Gamble)
Boys' Latin 34, John Carroll 14 (Marco Jones)
Mt. Lebanon 14, Upper St. Clair 10 (Tim Cwalina)

That concludes two regular seasons: David Dean's Green Run and Tim Cwalina's Mt. Lebanon. Dean and Green Run are done for the year; they needed that win against a bad Kellam team to stay alive for the playoffs. Cwalina and Mt. Lebanon finish undefeated and will take on Plum in the first round of the WPIAL (western Pa.) AAAA-level playoffs. They're cruising for a rematch with Upper St. Clair in the WPIAL semis. That's a four-week bracket; it's followed by the statewide tournament.

I've also got the AP poll study results for the week on the appropriate page. Again, a new record for regional bias is the result. Had I placed Utah in the Big 12 region instead of the Pac-10 region - a borderline call to be sure - we'd see over half a point of regional bias this week. As it is, it's close to it.

It's getting harder and harder to ignore that there just might be proof of regional bias in the rankings. I'm holding off on any full-bore data analysis until after the final regular season poll comes out, but this is the fourth straight week of seeing an increase in the overall bias number - the one you see on the bottom right of the "averages" chart. SEC voters are notoriously in the tank for Auburn. (I voted them #1 too, so I don't think they're necessarily wrong, but they're strongly against conventional wisdom.) Nearly a full point ahead of the rest of the country in their voting for Auburn - that is a very, very large number that high in the poll. The Pac-10 voters might appear to be underrating Oregon, but it's largely in favor of Boise State instead. I could go on, but have a look yourself.

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