Showing posts with label basketblogpoll ballot. Show all posts
Showing posts with label basketblogpoll ballot. Show all posts

Sunday, March 15, 2009

basketblogpoll ballot #6

I had the damndest time sorting out two principles that I go by when figuring out my ballots. What are they? I'm gonna make you read to find out. [/Rivals]

RankTeamDelta
1 Louisville 1
2 Memphis 2
3 North Carolina 2
4 Pittsburgh 1
5 Duke 1
6 Connecticut 1
7 Michigan St.
8 Missouri 2
9 Kansas 1
10 Syracuse 12
11 Gonzaga 2
12 Oklahoma 3
13 Florida St. 4
14 Villanova
15 Wake Forest 3
16 Purdue
17 Arizona St. 6
18 Marquette 2
19 Washington 8
20 Utah St.
21 UCLA 3
22 Temple
23 Utah 1
24 Illinois 1
25 Xavier 10
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Louisiana St. (#19), Brigham Young (#20), Clemson (#21).

See, I've been ranking the past few weeks by giving priority to teams doing well in their conference, because the autobid is what it's all about. Hence teams like Xavier and LSU, once kings of the mud in weaker conferences, tended to be ranked above middling teams in better ones (Clemson, UCLA, for example.)

So you'd think that conference champions after the tournaments would vault above those who faltered. And some did. But you know me: I don't think a tournament (AKA playoff) settles things. In fact the outcomes of these high-profile conference tournaments, in which the top seeds generally fared piss-poorly, are going straight into the ammo cache when it's time for me to rail against having a playoff in college football. You can't tell me that UNC, MSU, and LSU weren't pretty clearly the best teams in their conference all year - yet they're denied the right to be called conference champion because of the artificial construct at the end which says that the outcome of one game supersedes the outcomes of dozens.

Anyway, it left me with some dilemmas. What to do with so many of these teams that were brushed aside all year without a thought and suddenly snagged an autobid over other teams in their conference that were once ballot stalwarts? I dealt with it different ways in different conferences:

- The SEC got the boot. Entirely. Sucky conference, really. The conference commissioners will be rooting hard for Mississippi State in this afternoon's game because it's the only way in hell that conference will be more than a two-bid league. Other two-bid leagues: Horizon, Missouri Valley, West Coast. There's nothing about the SEC's performance this year that separates them from the high mid-majors. I dropped LSU from my ballot and didn't look back.

- The A-10 champion is Temple. Xavier earns a bat to the face for losing to them in the tournament. Xavier's got nice wins and all over Memphis and Missouri, which is why I repented and let them stay in the top 25 in the first place. I almost dropped them entirely for flubbing a mid-major league they have no business losing.

- Similar treatment in the Pac-10. Washington and UCLA dropped, again for flubbing a league they shouldn't have lost. ASU gets a little bit of a boost as they've now knocked off U-Dub once and UCLA twice. Still no USC though. A regular season that mediocre doesn't cancel out the tournament run.

- Louisville and Memphis are 1-2 for being pretty much the only top seeded teams to really act like it. They'll be among the few teams that can hang both regular-season and tournament banners in the roof. And most of the rest are, like, Cal State-Northridge and Morgan State, so it's the kind of bonus that's rare to be found in top-25 balloting.

Sunday, March 8, 2009

basketblogpoll ballot #5

A little late today - I usually prefer to do this in the morning - because today wraps up the regular season and I especially wanted to wait for UNC-Duke to finish up before I did anything. So without further ado:

RankTeamDelta
1North Carolina 1
2Louisville 3
3Pittsburgh
4Memphis
5Connecticut 4
6Duke
7Michigan St. 2
8Kansas
9Oklahoma 2
10Missouri
11Washington 5
12Wake Forest 1
13Gonzaga 1
14Villanova 2
15Xavier 2
16Marquette 2
17Florida St. 3
18UCLA 6
19Louisiana St. 2
20Brigham Young 2
21Clemson 8
22Syracuse
23Arizona St.
24Utah 1
25Illinois 6
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Purdue (#15).

- I continue to place more emphasis than before on leading your conference, since conference champions get the autobid. This, combined with losing at Pitt, explains UConn's relatively precipitous drop below conference #1 seeds Louisville and Memphis. Also why Washington is so high. Ken Pom calls the Pac-10 the second-best conference by a very slim margin, and Sagarin has them fourth-best. U-Dub's been solid and unspectacular all year and they don't have an OOC win they can hang their hat on (Oklahoma State is the best they've got) but the Pac-10 is a deep conference and winning the regular season title outright justifies their spot.

- Syracuse has had a fair amount of success lately and has the computer rankings to back it up. Problem was I had the toughest time deciding who among Purdue, Illinois, Utah, and Arizona State would make room for them. Purdue got clocked by Northwestern this week and further, didn't really put up a fight against MSU the other day, so Purdue it is. Illinois didn't exactly show up against Penn State either, but somewhere back in the dog days of the season, Illinois beat Purdue. So the Illini get to keep their place on the ballot. Barely.

Sunday, March 1, 2009

basketblogpoll ballot 4

Ballot below. 'Splainin' myself below that. And below that, you tell me why I'm all hosed up.

RankTeamDelta
1Connecticut 1
2North Carolina 1
3Pittsburgh 2
4Memphis 2
5Louisville 3
6Duke 1
7Oklahoma 3
8Kansas 3
9Michigan St. 2
10Missouri
11Wake Forest 4
12Villanova 1
13Clemson 4
14Gonzaga 2
15Purdue 1
16Washington 3
17Xavier
18Marquette 6
19Illinois 1
20Florida St. 1
21Louisiana St. 2
22Brigham Young 3
23Arizona St. 5
24UCLA
25Utah 1
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Utah St. (#22).


- The unfortunate purge of mid-majors continues as Utah State, fresh off the wrong end of a blowout at Nevada, takes the plunge and is replaced by the ultimate not-mid-major, UCLA. I can ignore a loss or two, but Utah State is now just 3-3 in their last six, and plays in a conference that Sagarin rates below three non I-A conferences (the A-10, MVC, and Horizon) and that I think is also below a fourth (CAA).

- West Virginia has basically become the basketball version of LSU on my ballot - a team whose good record in a top conference I think belies a weak resume. If you recall I stubbornly refused to rank LSU in football, insisting that their resume didn't allow it, and then when I finally caved and gave them a spot, they got waxed by Mississippi. I'm not ranking West Virginia because they haven't shown they have the chops to take on top-25 teams. One win against RPI top-25s. You know who else has a win against RPI top-25s? Us. I suspect also that their high computer rankings are partly the result of a lot of blowouts early in the season, like when Huggins activated Grudge Power and ran up the score on Ohio State.

- Now that we're approaching conference tournament season - a few of the bottom-feeding leagues have finished their seasons and are holding their tournaments next week - I'm starting to place a little bit more value on leading your conference; that is, being first in line for punching your auto-ticket to the Dance. This is a big reason why you're seeing up-bumps for teams like Gonzaga, Washington, LSU, Memphis, etc.