the wrong lesson

Occasionally, an argument you hear in favor of "scheduling for success" is that a losing team needs to "learn how to win."  That is, if you find yourself in a dogfight, it's better that said dogfight be against a little puppy instead of an ugly junkyard dog, to increase the odds of winning.   Then, when you fight the junkyard dog you'll have winning experience and you'll know what it takes to win.  "Walk before you run" is another way of putting it.

If that game was a lesson in how to win, it should get the teacher fired.  It's like if your driver's ed teacher just put on an hour's worth of clips of Ronin and The Bourne Identity and then tossed you the keys.

Frankly, I'd rather the team learned nothing at all from beating William & Mary than any "how to win" lesson.  If that game drove home "how to win," they'll go 1-11 this year, because the lesson is: You can get outmuscled, outsmarted, outcoached, and badly outdisciplined, and still win as long as the opponent lets you break open a whole bunch of big plays.

Two weeks ago, post-UCLA, I wrote about how nothing had changed, and we just keep going back to that.  Mike London has succeeded in stamping an identity onto the team just as well as Tony Bennett has.  Those identities are 180 degrees from each other on the discipline spectrum, but there it is all the same.  You can count on Tony's teams to come up with a big stop when they need one, and you can count on one of London's seniors to take an incredibly stupid penalty at a crucial moment.  (Kwontie Moore, step on forward.**)

Worse yet is that for an entire half and a good portion of the second, UVA was dominated in the trenches.  By William & Mary.  Dominated.  The Tribe ran all over them.  They double-teamed David Dean and nobody else could shed a block.  The UVA offensive line and that wonderful power rushing game which was never going to happen, was putrid.  Lemme state this once more for effect: William & Mary dominated UVA in the trenches.

That's how you almost lose to them.  UVA was rescued by its athletes, which is basically London's recruiting gameplan.  Unfortunately, the other ACC teams have good athletes too.

**Mike Moore was hit with the penalty, and he's kind of culpable, but the reason it looked like he ran over the quarterback on that roughing-the-passer call was because Kwontie Moore gave him a totally unnecessary shove, into Mike's path.  Totally asinine.

-- First bullet point has to be this: Why in the blazing blue fuck can't this coaching staff figure out how to substitute????  How basic is this?  How did any of them get an actual coaching job not being able to do this?  Why is the whole lower deck screaming at them to put an 11th man on the field?  Normal teams have to burn a timeout, I dunno, maybe once every other game or so, over a little substitution confusion.  Even most lousy staffs can handle this.  This staff burns all three timeouts of the half with that problem.  Un-flippin'-believable.  If the complete unpreparedness for onside kicks and total lack of discipline by seniors didn't clue you in on the attention to detail paid by this staff, the chronic inability to execute a fundamental aspect of football should help you figure it out.  "Uncompromised Excellence" has devolved into "Uncompromised Incompetence."

-- I'd feel a lot more confidence in the offense if they put together more drives like the first drive of the day. Big plays are neato, but if you can consistently march methodically down the field like that, you're in business.  They sputtered a bit at first, but then the ball just kept on going, right through the red zone as if their usual red zone issues didn't exist.  I liked it a lot better than Taquan Mizzell's screen-pass touchdown, which was nice but not repeatable.  W&M blitzed a screen pass and Mizzell is faster than anyone they got, that's all.

-- How bad was the running game?  Mizzell busted a big play which was rather well-blocked.  But you always take out the biggest play - if you still average 3.5-4 yards after that, you're doing well.  Take that out, and take out Jordan Ellis's touchdown run which was incredibly poorly blocked and 100% Ellis's efforts (Ellis ran 39 yards on that play, 38 of which were after contact), and also take out anything Matt Johns did because those are sacks and scrambles.  Here's what you get: 33 yards on 21 carries.  Power running game!

-- Have to like seeing the passing game opened up lately.  I don't have any confidence in the running game, but this team will pull off a couple surprises - hell, they could still go bowling, despite everything - if they put the game in the hands of Matt Johns.  Incredibly boneheaded interception aside, Johns is quietly playing like one of the top QBs in the conference.  Only Miami's Brad Kaaya has more passing yards.  Good thing Johns is doing so well, because Greyson Lambert is absolutely tearing it up for UGA.  Johns is on pace to set the UVA single-season record for passing yards, and the way he's going I'd be more surprised if he missed it than if he made it.

weekend review

And I'm back from mini-vacation.  Had time to squeeze in some game-watching, which is good because there's something about winning by 37 that makes long weekends even better.  Doesn't even matter who you're playing.

I can't think of any bad things to say about the game that don't involve "but it was 'only William & Mary.'"  Not many, anyway.  A few small things, I guess, that could theoretically dampen your enthusiasm but probably shouldn't:

-- Mike Paulus sucked.  The defense benefited greatly from a horrible, horrible day by the opposing quarterback that wasn't even the result of awesome coverage or a ton of pressure.  I mean, that was poor.

-- Eight penalties, although I was actually surprised to see the number was that high.  I kept thinking to myself during the game how penalty-free things were looking.  Guess I wasn't paying close enough attention to the flags.

-- David Watford looked pretty freshman-y.

But that's about it.  Otherwise, helmet stickers for all.  I could spend all day listing all the great things about the game and all the players that stood out with quality performances, but that's too long a list, so here's the one thing that made this thing fun above all other things: Freshmen.  Specifically, the new faces that played starring roles.  Doesn't necessarily have to be freshmen; Tim Smith kind of burst onto the scene in a whole new way, for example, as did Justin Renfrow and Will Hill on the defensive line.  Kevin Parks and Clifton Richardson running the ball.  Mike Rocco.  Demetrious Nicholson with an interception.  Darius Jennings.  It's kind of a truism that a coach's "era" doesn't really begin until his second year, and here we are and that era just began in a very big way.

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This is a new thing I'm doing this year, which by the end of the season will either be a huge exercise in trumpeting my own horn, or an unprecedented display of embarrassing accountability.  Veteran readers might have picked up on the different format for game previews this year, including a set of predictons, and I'm going to review them semi-excruciatingly and see how I did.  And keep track all year, to see if I'm good at this stuff or not.  Here, then, are the predictions I made in the game preview and whether or not they came to pass:

- UVA's biggest advantage will be when they are running the ball, as W&M's front seven is too undersized and unable to rotate players effectively.
Verdict: Oh, absolutely.  Nothing went better on Saturday than the running game.  UVA ran the ball whenever and wherever they wanted, and everybody got in on that action.  Complete dominance on the ground.  If the ground game gets two-thirds of that kind of result in every game this year UVA will win eight games.  Prediction was TRUE.

- Perry Jones will carry for more than 100 yards.
Verdict: FALSE thanks to the hot hand of Kevin Parks.  Otherwise he probably would've.

- Kris Burd will have more than 100 yards receiving.
Verdict: FALSE again, as the passing game plan was even more conservative than I expected and Tim Smith was the one who led the team in receiving.  These are both very healthy falses though; they bode well for the offense.

- Mike Rocco's day will look a lot like Marc Verica's against Richmond in 2010.

Verdict: I'm gonna give myself a TRUE even though Rocco threw for 100 fewer yards and no touchdowns (Verica had one.)  Why?  Both had high completion percentages, rarely threw deep, and were given a very similar game plan.  Really what caused the difference in their stats was the use of Watford for a few series and the late insertion of Ross Metheny.  Verica threw all the passes last year.

- David Watford will throw the ball at least once or twice.
Verdict: Obviously TRUE as he threw five times; in retrospect this looks like a silly gimme and I feel a littly guilty taking credit, but I'm going to anyway.

- Jonathan Grimes will have at least one big run.

Verdict: FALSE in a very good way.  Grimes, the Heisman-equivalent candidate, was a complete nonfactor.

- W&M will find little running room inside.

Verdict: TRUE in a very good way.  W&M's running game was shut down; they averaged 2.75 yards even when you don't count the one sack.  No room either inside or out.

- W&M will have some success passing the ball in the short game to Grimes and Alex Gottlieb, but the receivers will be, by and large, shut down.

Verdict: Half TRUE, so I'm counting it.  They'd've had more success going to Gottlieb if Paulus could've delivered the ball to his area code.  The wide receivers were a nonfactor.  Ryan Woolfolk didn't catch a pass; D.J. Mangas caught three, but all the rest of the completions (such as there were) went to backs and tight ends and suchlike.

- UVA's pass rush will give Mike Paulus trouble.

Verdict: Not so much, actually.  One "sack," of which Paulus was not the victim, and was the result of forcing the ball out of bounds rather than your traditional sack.  I don't remember many blitzes by the UVA defense and I wouldn't be surprised at all to re-review the game and find there were none.  Very, very vanilla gameplan on defense, especially starting in the third quarter when the game was getting out of hand; I think after that point the defense just stood in the basic 4-3 without a single wrinkle.  The pocket got pushed inwards at times, but the pass rush just was not a factor.  Going out on a FALSE note.

This leaves me 5 for 9 on the week.  Going to keep track all season and see how I do.

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Now for the Senior Seasons section, in which we check in on the verbal commits and how they're doing this year:

DeMatha 24, Loyola Blakefield 20: Michael Moore knocked down a fourth-and-goal pass in the late minutes to preserve DeMatha's season-opening win.  DeMatha is 1-0.

Salem 31, Bayside 6: Major humbling for Bayside.  Anthony Cooper had just three catches for 40 yards.  Some major 2013 targets involved here, including Bayside RB Taquan Mizzell and Salem QB Bucky Hodges.  Bayside is 0-1.

Ocean Lakes 40, Princess Anne 7: Eli Harold caught 3 passes for 73 yards.  Ocean Lakes is 1-0.

Landstown 27, Kellam 7: Kyle Dockins intercepted a pass.  Landstown is 1-0.

North Cross 34, Norfolk Christian 27: Worrisome start to the season for the NCS boys; they lost to Liberty Christian last Monday in a makeup of their game that was postponed by the hurricane.  Mario Nixon had four catches for 102 yards and two touchdowns.

Other games:

Admiral Farragut 42, Victory Christian 13 (Demeitre Brim**; VCA is 0-1.)
Buford 35, Carver 7 (C.J. Moore; Buford is 3-0.)
Appling County 35, Wayne County 25 (Greyson Lambert; Wayne is 0-1-1.)
Ridley 21, Malvern Prep 20 (Michael Mooney; Malvern is 0-1.)
Council Rock North 42, Central Bucks South 20 (Matt Johns; CB South is 0-1.)
Langham Creek 66, Stratford 28 (Kelvin Rainey; Stratford is 0-2.)
Green Run 22, Cox 16 (Mark Hall; Green Run is 1-0.)
Hampton 43, Heritage 0 (Jamall Brown; Hampton is 1-0.)

**Brim is out for a little bit with a broken jaw.

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And you know we can't go without a famous recruiting board update.  We pretty much have to since it's been like three weeks and that was enough time for some action.  Here are the changes:

- Moved CB Kelvin Rainey from green to orange.  Rainey committed just today; you might've noticed I snuck in his results from this week above.

- Removed RB Chris Mangus from blue.  Whatever tactic they're using at VT to recruit running backs out from under our nose, it's working.  (Likely enough it's "you don't want to sit behind Clifton Richardson and Kevin Parks for four years" which means we're in pretty good shape, actually.)

- Removed OT Blake Fromang (Vandy) and S A.J. Justice (SMU) from yellow.  The latter's offer was only semi-committable with this class filling up.

That's it for that.  There isn't much drama left here; Canaan Severin will be the next one to watch for.

But lastly, that's not it for recruiting.  The biggest recruiting news of the weekend came from the basketball world - and won't pay off for years.  That would be the commitment of B.J. Stith, and if the name seems vaguely familiar then you need to brush up on your history, son.  B.J. is the younger son of all-time UVA great Bryant Stith; his brother Brandan will eventually join him (probably), giving us a thrill in 2014 when not one but two Stiths are once again in uniform for the Hoos.**  I usually write up a profile on basketball recruits right away, but I had to have a little internal debate on this one and "write a profile" lost out.  B.J. is just a sophomore starting this year; a damn good one, supposedly, but a sophomore nonetheless and there isn't much to go on.  I'll file it for the summer of 2013.  We're just gonna have to be patient on this one.

**Having a Stith in blue and orange again is yet another good reason to play a throwback game once a year in U-Hall.  This needs to happen.

game preview: William & Mary

Date/Time: Saturday, September 3; 6:00

TV: ESPN3

History against the Tribe: 26-6-1

Last matchup: W&M 26, UVA 14

Last week: N/A

Line: UVA by 8

Opposing blogs: none

Injury report: none

Well, here we are.  I don't need to remind you about what may or may not have happened last time we decided William & Mary should be on the schedule.  William & Mary is one of the best teams in Division I-AA, which means they'd probably be expected to win against several of the worst I-A outfits.  And which means UVA - as a generally accepted Bad Team among those who don't follow the ACC very hard (and some who do) - is a popular upset pick.  Not that we'd get any special props for winning, of course.  It seems like a relatively unimportant game, then, at least in the grand scheme, but there's this at least: if Virginia doesn't win, we can basically forget about analyzing any further hopes of meeting bowl-related expectations.  Not that this game in and of itself is the tipping point, but if we can't beat William & Mary, #3 rank in the I-AA ranks aside, who can we expect to beat outside of a lightning bolt of an upset?

-- UVA run offense vs. W&M run defense:

We really don't know what Bill Lazor has in store here.  The approach to the run game is going to have to be very different from last year; Perry Jones is the only returning weapon here.  Without a Keith Payne type to get yardage the bashing way, a slight change in philosophy is on tap.  And we don't even know how much of that philosophy will be on display on Saturday; there are quite a few new toys to play with in the running game, but surely Lazor doesn't want to tip his hand as to the extent of their usage.

Among the possibilities for new wrinkles are David Watford in a wildcat-esque formation, or perhaps Dominique Terrell on a reverse.  I expect to see one or two as the coaches get into an experimental mood, but who knows how far they'll take that?  Honestly, the best case would be the ability to get five or six yards out of Perry Jones any time we want it; you don't want to have to get fancy in order to win against your I-AA opposition.

As with most I-AA teams, W&M is undersized up front, with one exception: 300-pound DT Harold Robertson.  Middle linebacker Jake Trantin is 240 pounds; on the outsides, though, UVA's much larger blockers should find an easy path to clearing running lanes.  W&M does have just a ton of experience in the starting front seven with six of them being returning starters, and outside 'backer Dante Cook is a top-notch tackler, but past the starting seven the experience is almost totally lacking.  The two-deep is full of former scout teamers and guys with two, three games of experience.  W&M won't be able to rotate without taking a serious hit to their ability to stop the ball.

So I think UVA will have a clear advantage when the ball is on the ground.  Expect a 100-yard day out of Perry Jones and some experimenting with the rest of the tailbacks, mostly along the lines of spreading out the carries and seeing who looks best in game action.

-- UVA pass offense vs. W&M pass defense:

One thing the Tribe have going for them is a preseason all-conference defender at each level of the defense, and it's pass defense where those guys excel.  DE Marcus Hyde is a good if undersized pass-rusher; Dante Cook defends the pass very well as a linebacker; CB B.W. Webb has nine career picks, although just one last year.

However, the strength of the UVA O-line is at tackle, and it ought to be an interesting sight to watch the 242-pound Hyde battle 320-pound Morgan Moses.  Is Moses quick enough with his feet to handle a bug-sized speed rusher?  Or will he just swallow up the rush with size?

UVA's attack, unlike the rushing game, will look a lot like last year's, because Mike Rocco is going to be awfully similar to Marc Verica.  You don't ask either one to do spectacular things to win the game; just find the open receiver because eventually there'll be one.  The biggest question going in is, how much passing will David Watford do?  There's no doubt among anyone that Watford can make plays with his feet that none of the other QBs can, but how his arm looks in live action is a total mystery.  We don't even have high school to go off of because Watford ran an offense at Hampton that almost never passed.  I do expect Watford to pass the ball at least once or twice, and I'm as curious as anyone to see how that will go.

The matchups will almost certainly involve Webb, a preseason I-AA all-American, covering Kris Burd, and the very experienced Terrell Wells covering whoever else, probably Tim Smith.  Regardless of experience, expect Lazor to have Rocco and Smith - or perhaps one of the wondertwin freshmen - test their deep-ball chops.  Even against a I-AA opponent, nothing would do more for the offense going forward than if they can connect on a bomb.

The prediction here is that Rocco is efficient but not eye-popping, connecting on about two-thirds of his passes with stats very similar to Verica's against Richmond last year.  As Rocco's safety blanket, I think Burd has a big day, too, and we should get to see, at least once, one of the freshmen receivers, Terrell or Jennings, do something exciting.

-- W&M run offense vs. UVA run defense:

One of the reasons Billy & Mary is expected to contend for a national title is their running game, and their tailback, Jonathan Grimes.  Grimes is a true workhorse; he's the CAA preseason co-OPOY and on the Payton Award watch list - the I-AA version of the Heisman.  W&M center James Pagliaro is also a preseason all-conference player.

Most of the rest of the line is underexperienced, though, and if W&M falters this season because of that, they would hardly be the first team to do so.  It's a long and humble list of teams that've had expectations dashed by an inexperienced O-line.

Regardless, the Tribe will lean on Grimes, Grimes, and Grimes some more, and at some point he will probably break one.  It happened last year; UVA kept Richmond's Kendall Gaskins in check most of the game, except for the pesky 70-yard touchdown early in the game.  Grimes, too, will probably end up with a big run.  The key will be to at least make sure it happens outside where at least, we expect it.  If the defensive middle is as strong as I think it is, then W&M's one ace, at center, can be nullified, and Grimes will be forced to test our outside defenses instead.

-- W&M pass offense vs. UVA pass defense:

Quarterbacking the Tribe attack is Mike Paulus, a name you might recognize; Paulus (besides being the brother of Duke basketball standout Greg) used to play QB at UNC, where he was horrible.  He transferred to W&M last year and was playing very well before a shoulder injury ended his season - against UNC, incidentally, in a game where he was playing exceedingly well before the injury.

The Tribe's second-leading returning receiver is - uh, Jonathan Grimes, who's a big threat in the passing game.  The wide receivers are returning backups turned starters: Ryan Woolfolk and D.J. Mangas; the actual biggest threat is preseason-AA tight end Alex Gottlieb.  UVA's corners should by and large be able to shut down the receivers; the real test will be of the linebackers' abilities to cover Gottlieb, who along with Grimes represents the Tribe's best chance at moving the ball through the air.

Because of that, and because of the relative inexperience on the line - particularly at right tackle where they have Robert Gumbita who only played in five games last year - expect W&M to try and move the ball in short bursts rather than large chunks.  There's an opportunity here to exploit matchups on the line and let the pass rush really shine, and Paulus will probably pick up his share of grass stains.

-- Outlook:

Remember when I said this seems like an unimportant game?  It only seems like it.  Truth is, Mike London has been picking up a lot of results on the recruiting trail by selling the notion of UVA as a program on the upswing.  That line won't work for a third straight year if you can't prove it.  The best way to prove it is by not losing to the same lower-division team you made headlines by losing to last time.  The second best way is by going bowling when everyone expected you not to.

To put it more bluntly, UVA can't prove it's on the upswing just by winning this game, but neither can it prove to be on the upswing if it loses.

-- Prediction summary: (gleaned from the above paragraphs)

-OFFENSE
- UVA's biggest advantage will be when they are running the ball, as W&M's front seven is too undersized and unable to rotate players effectively.
- Perry Jones will carry for more than 100 yards.
- Kris Burd will have more than 100 yards receiving.
- Mike Rocco's day will look a lot like Marc Verica's against Richmond in 2010.
- David Watford will throw the ball at least once or twice.

-DEFENSE
- Jonathan Grimes will have at least one big run.
- W&M will find little running room inside.
- W&M will have some success passing the ball in the short game to Grimes and Alex Gottlieb, but the receivers will be, by and large, shut down.
- UVA's pass rush will give Mike Paulus trouble.

- Final score: UVA 31, W&M 13.