This weekend found me out of town, so I've got very little to offer in terms of cutting-edge insight. I even forgot to record the lacrosse games, which I guarantee you is why they blew out Maryland in the first round of the ACC tournament. If the Tivo had been fired up for that one they'd have lost for sure.
The second game, obviously, was rather less recordable, although the offensive effort of 13 goals each game was encouraging. I promise tomorrow will tease out the full story of the lacrosse season, but I'll leave it at this for today: there's no reason to think we're doomed next year. 2004 was a flaming wreck of a season and the following year saw the Hoos in the final four, with a championship the year after that. UVA was frustratingly off their game most weekends, but not outclassed most weekends either.
Speaking of frustrating, I said don't let Virginia Tech's top six hitters string hits together and everything would be fine, and they strung hits together and everything was not fine. So much for crushing the Hokies' Durham dreams. I remain unperturbed, however. The Hoos' realistic goal should be third place in the ACC so that they can be in the opposite bracket from UNC, and third is exactly where they sit. Lest you need reminding that baseball can be a fickle sport with no guarantees in any given weekend, the utterly pathetic BC Eagles (9-35 record, coming into the weekend with 20 straight ACC losses) won their series against Miami. BC as a team is batting .206(!!) with a .574(!!) OPS, just sayin'.
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-- Congratulations are in order for the men's tennis team, ACC champs for the seventh time in the last ten years. That gives UVA four ACC championships (both swimming teams and women's soccer are the others), which ties us with Florida State for the most. UVA is the prohibitive favorite to take the rowing title and FSU nearly as favored for softball, which means the race will end tied between the Hoos and Noles unless one of the two wins the baseball championship as well - not out of the question.
-- UVA had just one player taken in the NFL draft: Oday Aboushi, in the fifth round to the most dysfunctional team in the league, or the Jets for short. Nice for Oday, a Brooklyn native, but hopefully the crap culture around that team doesn't poison his career. A few seniors also signed post-draft contracts, but most aren't likely to stick. The guy with the best chance is probably Laroy Reynolds, picked up by the Jags.
-- ESPN has decided to take on the challenge of covering every game in the NCAA baseball tournament. This is not that easy. At first blush it might look like fantastic news - no more hoping ours is one of the four regionals that gets a set of cameras - and for the most part it is. This isn't like covering all 67 games of the hoops tourney, though.
For one thing, basketball never has more than 16 games on in one day, thanks to staggering the games on Thursday/Saturday and Friday/Sunday. Baseball can't do this; all 16 regionals play Friday through Sunday, or Monday if necessary. UVA's regional started Saturday last year thanks to Friday rain, which meant a really squashed schedule because they won't play on Tuesday if they can help it. This means 32 games on Friday and 32 games on Saturday as well, because of the double-elimination format. They could move half the regionals to a Thursday start, but it still means 32 games on Friday.
ESPN isn't going to turn ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU, ESPNews, and ESPN Classic all over to nonstop baseball programming, nor are games going to begin at 9 AM, so what this really means is a heavy reliance on ESPN3 and the implementation of an NFL Red Zone-like channel that flips around to find the most interesting games. It'll be really nice to have live video, but it doesn't necessarily mean it'll be on your 48" screen.
Here's the other benefit of this, though: it means ESPN is taking college baseball very seriously, which happens to be a sport that the ACC does better than most other conferences they cover. It could mean a little more cash flow into the conference's very willing coffers.
-- An interesting article out of Tallahassee detailing John Swofford's work in keeping the decision-makers at Florida State happy. It's fun reading about the machinations behind the scenes, but it's also interesting to note that Swoff made a similar road trip to Charlottesville. And it's also interesting to see the Tallahassee people let slip the "pending" ACC Network. This should be something to look forward to.
Showing posts with label reynolds. Show all posts
Showing posts with label reynolds. Show all posts
Monday, April 29, 2013
Thursday, April 18, 2013
answers from spring
The spring game has come and gone, and now spring practice as well. The football team got to break in its fancy new practice facility, which is a vast improvement over walkthroughs on the JPJA floor. You'd think we'd have some answers as to how things might look in the fall, and it so happens we just might. I've been taking notes, and as usual here's what I think:
STUFF THAT GOT CLEARED UP:
-- Quarterback, sort of. Just having something resembling a depth chart at this stage of the game is an improvement over the past. At the beginning of spring practice it was clear that Phillip Sims had somehow worked his way to the bottom of it. Mike London made noises about how nothing's decided this is just a guide of sorts blah blah blah, but it became clear pretty quickly that Sims was being sent a message. David Watford and Greyson Lambert more or less split the first-team quarterback duties, and one starts to get the sense that Watford has a slight leg up on Lambert. And that Sims hasn't done anything to move out of the doldrums; his 8-for-18 spring game performance was something less than impressive.
-- Defensive line should be pretty sweet. The age-old question of whether we should rejoice or jump off a bridge when one unit dominates the other naturally applies. However, there's good reason to believe the D-line was showing off for real. David Dean in particular came in for high praise from all corners - including, most importantly, the coaches - and there's a good chance he becomes the disruptive three-tech we thought we'd get out of Chris Brathwaite. (For whom, praise be, the door is not closed for a return. It looks like he'll be trying to follow in the footsteps of Jameel Sewell.)
-- Wide receiver should also be in good shape. Good things are being said about the second line. Dominique Terrell had a Jeff White article devoted to his good work, CavsCorner had a flowery one about E.J. Scott, and Adrian Gamble is getting noticed too.
-- We do seem to have a starting linebacker corps. And Henry Coley in particular is stepping into the leadership gap left when Steve Greer and Laroy Reynolds graduated. Coley had a little disciplinary hiccup last year, and it's nice to see that seems to be resolved. Occasionally I've seen a couple hyperactive imaginations worrying that Coley's entrenchment at middle linebacker means Kwontie Moore is a bust, to which I say piffle: Coley has two years of experience on Moore. And Demeitre Brim is moving quickly to secure the strongside spot. UVA's front seven will not be among the most-hyped in the conference when the season begins, but it could have some eyes open and looking their way by November.
STUFF THAT DIDN'T:
-- We heard precious little out of the running back realm that was especially useful. Even if we had, Taquan Mizzell is still showing up in the fall ready to scramble whatever pecking order has been established. Even so, I was hoping to hear what that pecking order might have been, and specifically, where Clifton Richardson fits. In the pre-spring depth chart he's third, and didn't appear to make a strong upward move.
-- It's all well and good to know sort of where the quarterbacks stand, but we still don't have a starter.
-- The O-line. This is the real question mark. It would be getting a lot more attention if we had a settled quarterback situation. I think the running game in particular is the most at risk, because the interior of the line is the least secure. And David Watford may have an advantage at quarterback partly because he can scramble out of the way of incoming pass rushers much better than either Sims or Lambert.
Everything will get ten times more complex when the rubber hits the road in September, of course. But if I were to break things down as simple as possible, here in April, I'd say this: The defense has the bodies and the talent to be very good, and it depends on how well they take to Jon Tenuta's schemes. And how often they blitz into a screen pass. The offense depends on the line, and secondarily on the quarterback. Quarterback is going to get the attention, and let's hope the line doesn't because poor play will be much more readily apparent than quality play. But the offense will have the weapons it needs; we'll see if the line can let them shine.
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Just a couple things I thought shouldn't wait til Monday. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has an excellent interview with George Adeosun. Refreshingly honest and insightful. And Joe Lunardi's "I need to justify my existence for the other ten months out of the year" early bracketology has UVA a four seed. This means absolutely nothing for next year's tourney but is interesting in the sense that we know the hoops team should do very well next year, but it's a little surprising to see the media powers-that-be thinking so highly of them as well. Much more surprising than Chris Nelson's decommitment, anyway. Dude visited damn near every school in Florida in the last two months. Nelson will probably land on his feet, and I do appreciate that he decided to get it over with rather than holding a spot until the last minute before committing elsewhere. UVA will be fine, as long as they snag Andrew Brown and/or Derrick Nnadi.
STUFF THAT GOT CLEARED UP:
-- Quarterback, sort of. Just having something resembling a depth chart at this stage of the game is an improvement over the past. At the beginning of spring practice it was clear that Phillip Sims had somehow worked his way to the bottom of it. Mike London made noises about how nothing's decided this is just a guide of sorts blah blah blah, but it became clear pretty quickly that Sims was being sent a message. David Watford and Greyson Lambert more or less split the first-team quarterback duties, and one starts to get the sense that Watford has a slight leg up on Lambert. And that Sims hasn't done anything to move out of the doldrums; his 8-for-18 spring game performance was something less than impressive.
-- Defensive line should be pretty sweet. The age-old question of whether we should rejoice or jump off a bridge when one unit dominates the other naturally applies. However, there's good reason to believe the D-line was showing off for real. David Dean in particular came in for high praise from all corners - including, most importantly, the coaches - and there's a good chance he becomes the disruptive three-tech we thought we'd get out of Chris Brathwaite. (For whom, praise be, the door is not closed for a return. It looks like he'll be trying to follow in the footsteps of Jameel Sewell.)
-- Wide receiver should also be in good shape. Good things are being said about the second line. Dominique Terrell had a Jeff White article devoted to his good work, CavsCorner had a flowery one about E.J. Scott, and Adrian Gamble is getting noticed too.
-- We do seem to have a starting linebacker corps. And Henry Coley in particular is stepping into the leadership gap left when Steve Greer and Laroy Reynolds graduated. Coley had a little disciplinary hiccup last year, and it's nice to see that seems to be resolved. Occasionally I've seen a couple hyperactive imaginations worrying that Coley's entrenchment at middle linebacker means Kwontie Moore is a bust, to which I say piffle: Coley has two years of experience on Moore. And Demeitre Brim is moving quickly to secure the strongside spot. UVA's front seven will not be among the most-hyped in the conference when the season begins, but it could have some eyes open and looking their way by November.
STUFF THAT DIDN'T:
-- We heard precious little out of the running back realm that was especially useful. Even if we had, Taquan Mizzell is still showing up in the fall ready to scramble whatever pecking order has been established. Even so, I was hoping to hear what that pecking order might have been, and specifically, where Clifton Richardson fits. In the pre-spring depth chart he's third, and didn't appear to make a strong upward move.
-- It's all well and good to know sort of where the quarterbacks stand, but we still don't have a starter.
-- The O-line. This is the real question mark. It would be getting a lot more attention if we had a settled quarterback situation. I think the running game in particular is the most at risk, because the interior of the line is the least secure. And David Watford may have an advantage at quarterback partly because he can scramble out of the way of incoming pass rushers much better than either Sims or Lambert.
Everything will get ten times more complex when the rubber hits the road in September, of course. But if I were to break things down as simple as possible, here in April, I'd say this: The defense has the bodies and the talent to be very good, and it depends on how well they take to Jon Tenuta's schemes. And how often they blitz into a screen pass. The offense depends on the line, and secondarily on the quarterback. Quarterback is going to get the attention, and let's hope the line doesn't because poor play will be much more readily apparent than quality play. But the offense will have the weapons it needs; we'll see if the line can let them shine.
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Just a couple things I thought shouldn't wait til Monday. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has an excellent interview with George Adeosun. Refreshingly honest and insightful. And Joe Lunardi's "I need to justify my existence for the other ten months out of the year" early bracketology has UVA a four seed. This means absolutely nothing for next year's tourney but is interesting in the sense that we know the hoops team should do very well next year, but it's a little surprising to see the media powers-that-be thinking so highly of them as well. Much more surprising than Chris Nelson's decommitment, anyway. Dude visited damn near every school in Florida in the last two months. Nelson will probably land on his feet, and I do appreciate that he decided to get it over with rather than holding a spot until the last minute before committing elsewhere. UVA will be fine, as long as they snag Andrew Brown and/or Derrick Nnadi.
Tuesday, October 16, 2012
weekend review
And so the line is crossed. At some point on Saturday you all came to the same conclusion. Maybe at different times, but you all ended up at the same place: the season is over. Mathematically speaking, perhaps not, but the amount of denial it takes to not accept the idea of a postseason without UVA is seismically large.
The slot machine that is this football program is easily the most maddening in recent memory - certainly, at least, with the five years covered by this blog. Will we get good or bad pass blocking this week? Good or bad run blocking? Will the quarterback complete passes or not? Existent or nonexistent pass rush? Horrible special teams, or really fucking horrible special teams? At least this last one is easy to predict. The rest are a prognosticator's nightmare. It's not that I suck at predicting what'll happen in any one particular game; it's just that past performance with this team is completely worthless as an indicator of future results. Oh, so we have a pair of offensive tackles with major NFL potential? Just for fun, how about in this game, they completely blow? Mike Rocco has been slowly regressing as a passer and looks more like Marc Verica and less like Matt Schaub with every throw? How about in this game, he directs an 89-yard touchdown drive (starting with 2nd and 18) in less than two minutes? Awesome! One of these weeks, the slot machine will turn up a winning combo and some future opponent is gonna be really pissed off we wrecked their chances at the ACCCG, but otherwise, this team has no identity, nothing it does good consistently, and is prone to screwing up in all facets of the game at any time.
Some more than others. Let's take special teams for an example, which has hit my breaking point of impatience. I am done with this crap. I went through the play by play and counted 28 special teams plays that were something other than an extra point. The only actual good plays that were made were mostly the punter, Alec Vozenilek, who averaged 48 yards a kick if you take away the very ill-timed shank at the end. That's pretty good. Then I counted three penalties, a blocked field goal, and two long kick returns for Maryland, one for a touchdown. As with every week, we got nothing worth talking about on returns.
The penalties are undisciplined shit and have been happening every week. The touchdown was undisciplined shit - failure of the most simple task, which is to stay in your lane and run through the play. The blocked field goal was a nice play by the Maryland DT, but clearly avoidable since the result was to pull Drew Jarrett and put in Ian Frye - Jarrett's kick was low. There's no getting around it: the special teams lost us this game. The terrible pass blocking was a close second - seriously, both Moses and Aboushi had just about the worst game of their careers and probably graded out in pass protection at minus a billion percent. But the special teams was worse. Worse because it was undisciplined bullshit for which being freshmen and such is not an excuse. (Especially not in Zach Swanson's case, who is a redshirt sophomore and should know better than to commit the brainless personal foul that killed every ounce of momentum we had scraped together up to that point.)
I don't lightly call for the jobs of coaches - Lord knows I probably stick by them for too long - but that time has come: UVA cannot afford one more week of Anthony Poindexter's totally ineffective coaching of the special teams. Dex is probably not a good coach in general, given the number of different positions he's been bounced around to. Vincent Brown was added to the special teams duties last year in an effort to help Poindexter, because special teams also sucked in 2010, and obviously that's worked about as well as Professor Echols's decision to blow up the Rotunda. London needs to seriously evaluate whether Poindexter's recruiting chops are a net positive compared to his coaching. Bringing talent into the program is cool and all, but Dex's special teams just cost us the Maryland game, which besides losing to effing Maryland is a huge blow to recruiting in Dex's own geographical assignment (he's responsible for NOVA and Maryland.)
If the answer is no, we can't afford to lose his recruiting skills, then it's still time for a staff shuffle, starting with the special teams, which should be under the purview of the head coach for the rest of the year. That's the level of attention they need, and that's the way to send the message to the brickheaded dumbasses who think it's a good idea to throw a block in the back while our runner cruises out of bounds - or throw post-whistle shoves on routine field goals - that their mistakes are being watched. Christ, even the one really good, applaudable play on kick cover was a last-second, shoestring, touchdown saving tackle that wouldn't have been necessary if we could cover kicks.
We can kill two birds with one stone if the staff is reshuffled, even if Dex is retained. Move Dex to RBs and give the safeties over to Chip West, who already coaches the corners. Give the QBs and WRs to Mike Faragalli, who's done both before. Bill Lazor likes to be on the sidelines during the game so he can coach the QBs, but he's the OC - he needs to be in the booth. It'll improve his playcalling, which is a little goofy at times. (Although, I don't fault him for the screen passes on third and long. Shit, if the O-line is going to let pass rushers have free shots at our quarterback, might as well do it on purpose and get it out of the way faster. There was some running room there and those screens damn near worked.)
Further reactions in brief:
-- Where the heck did the run game come from all of a sudden? As bullshit as that game was, you have to give a huge tip of the cap to the run-blocking, which only made the game even more bullshit really because we really should win with that kind of performance. Also, Kevin Parks needs to start eating into Perry Jones's carries.
-- Yes, we are past the point of no return at quarterback. It's Sims or bust, in the hope that he can figure out the timing with more playing time. I said it here and I said it on the messageboards and I said it for weeks: judging Phillip Sims based on garbage time without the game on his shoulders and with the coaches purposely setting him up for success was stupid. Expecting him to just come out slinging and hitting every receiver in sight was stupid. But it's too late to go back, now. Consider Rocco a very experienced insurance policy.
-- Yes, it's also way too damn early to be calling for the head coach's job or giving up on the London era, even as I'm so damn done with the special teams coaching. But certain troubling examples are starting to show. Consider: Laroy Reynolds (a senior, mind you), in pass coverage on the sidelines, draws a bead on his assignment and zeroes in so hard he fails to notice the ball was horrendously overthrown. If he's able to catch it, with his speed it's probably six points and a huge momentum booster, what with being down two touchdowns at the time. Instead he laser-focuses on the big hit, and delivers it - way, way late. Everyone on the planet could see a flag coming. Everyone, that is, except Reynolds and Mike London. The former sits for a play and the latter bitches at the refs. Well, Reynolds doesn't exactly "sit" - he stalks the sidelines loudly bemoaning the unfairness of the obvious flag. I don't hold with calling for a coach's job two and a half seasons into his tenure, but can you blame anyone for being irritated at the coaching staff for putting more energy into complaining at the ref than actually coaching? Informing Reynolds to shut up and pay attention to the ball would've been infinitely more productive.
-- October baseball is a pleasant and welcome distraction from October football when the Tigers are cruising like they're cruising, so: an observation on that instead. Which is: someone please shut Joe Girardi the hell up about instant replay. Hey Joe, maybe if your 200 million dollar lineup didn't swing noodle bats and could score one stinking run against someone besides Detroit's strugglin'-ass closer, maybe it would've mattered that the umpire blew that call. Maybe if your shit bullpen didn't give up RBI singles to rookie outfielders while you spend $14 million on a second baseman to go zilch-for-twenty-six and biff double plays while the winning run scores from third, you'd have a case. And maybe if you could hit when it was 0-0, you wouldn't sound so silly complaining that 3-0 makes a real big difference. If you can't hit Doug Fister and Anibal Sanchez, I can't wait to see what happens when it's Justin Verlander on the hill. Wheeeeeeee.... go Tigers!
Let us delve into the prediction summary:
-- UVA finally picks up more than one sack. We got two! I don't expect this to ever happen again all year! And Maryland had five!
-- Perry Jones is UVA's least productive running back on the ground. As I was looking this over I realized it was fairly ambiguous and left me too much wiggle room. Then I realized it didn't matter. Jones had 23 yards on 10 carries, which gives him both the lowest total and the lowest average. He found no room at all. Kevin Parks found a ton and has more or less officially supplanted Jones as the feature back. He even caught more passes than Jones.
-- Neither team has a back gain more than 50 yards. Well, I grossly underestimated UVA's running game skills, but not til I got right to this point did I realize how dominant our run defense was. Holy balls you guys. Maryland's leading rusher was Perry Hills - that's their QB in case you weren't paying attention - with seven yards on seven carries. Justus Pickett carried 15 times for minus-eight yards. Counting kneel-downs and sacks, Maryland's rushing "attack" went backwards: 29 attempts, -2 yards. Holy hell.
-- Jake McGee catches a pass of 30+ yards. Neg.
2 for 4 is a slight bump upwards to 13 of 34, or 38%. But I'm 4-3 in outcome predictions and 0-5-2 ATS. Next week I'm picking Wake Forest no matter what. Either my record gets better or the team's does.
Now for the Blogpoll:
I haven't bothered with a sanity check at all, but I can tell you a few things:
-- Ohio went yet another week with a terrible win over a terrible team. I said I would stop rescuing them from my own system if they did that again, and they did that again, so I'm not.
-- South Carolina's fall from grace seems a bit steep, doesn't it? I explain this by saying that a lot of their SEC wins (Vandy, Mizzou, UK) are looking worse and worse by the week. Still, perhaps that's too low for a team I had as the best in the country last week.
-- Notre Dame, however, is a thoroughly deserving #1.
-- Oregon State might be top five if they hadn't had two off dates.
-- This ballot is proof of the Blogpoll's superiority to the media poll. I have Mississippi State 28th, right where they belong since their best win is a 10-pointer over 3-3 Tennessee. The media thinks they're a top-25 team because they beat Auburn when people thought Auburn was good, and the media doesn't remove you from their poll if you keep winning, regardless of how bad the teams are that you beat.
This week's pool of eligible teams dropped to 37 from 44. Three teams were added, and a few teams dropped out because they fell below the limit for wins (4-3 is out, 4-2 is in) and some more because I changed the rule so that now, you have to either be undefeated or have a win over a Big Five team with at least a .500 record. This is known as "just because you beat Kansas doesn't make you cool." Sharp-eyed viewers will notice that one or two teams don't fit this rule (not telling which) but they were on the ballot last week so I grandfathered them in.
The Senior Seasons feature will have to wait til tomorrow because I got way busy with school this week (take-home midterms, yo) and what with the Tigers and Lions and all else I didn't get around to the ballot til today.
The slot machine that is this football program is easily the most maddening in recent memory - certainly, at least, with the five years covered by this blog. Will we get good or bad pass blocking this week? Good or bad run blocking? Will the quarterback complete passes or not? Existent or nonexistent pass rush? Horrible special teams, or really fucking horrible special teams? At least this last one is easy to predict. The rest are a prognosticator's nightmare. It's not that I suck at predicting what'll happen in any one particular game; it's just that past performance with this team is completely worthless as an indicator of future results. Oh, so we have a pair of offensive tackles with major NFL potential? Just for fun, how about in this game, they completely blow? Mike Rocco has been slowly regressing as a passer and looks more like Marc Verica and less like Matt Schaub with every throw? How about in this game, he directs an 89-yard touchdown drive (starting with 2nd and 18) in less than two minutes? Awesome! One of these weeks, the slot machine will turn up a winning combo and some future opponent is gonna be really pissed off we wrecked their chances at the ACCCG, but otherwise, this team has no identity, nothing it does good consistently, and is prone to screwing up in all facets of the game at any time.
Some more than others. Let's take special teams for an example, which has hit my breaking point of impatience. I am done with this crap. I went through the play by play and counted 28 special teams plays that were something other than an extra point. The only actual good plays that were made were mostly the punter, Alec Vozenilek, who averaged 48 yards a kick if you take away the very ill-timed shank at the end. That's pretty good. Then I counted three penalties, a blocked field goal, and two long kick returns for Maryland, one for a touchdown. As with every week, we got nothing worth talking about on returns.
The penalties are undisciplined shit and have been happening every week. The touchdown was undisciplined shit - failure of the most simple task, which is to stay in your lane and run through the play. The blocked field goal was a nice play by the Maryland DT, but clearly avoidable since the result was to pull Drew Jarrett and put in Ian Frye - Jarrett's kick was low. There's no getting around it: the special teams lost us this game. The terrible pass blocking was a close second - seriously, both Moses and Aboushi had just about the worst game of their careers and probably graded out in pass protection at minus a billion percent. But the special teams was worse. Worse because it was undisciplined bullshit for which being freshmen and such is not an excuse. (Especially not in Zach Swanson's case, who is a redshirt sophomore and should know better than to commit the brainless personal foul that killed every ounce of momentum we had scraped together up to that point.)
I don't lightly call for the jobs of coaches - Lord knows I probably stick by them for too long - but that time has come: UVA cannot afford one more week of Anthony Poindexter's totally ineffective coaching of the special teams. Dex is probably not a good coach in general, given the number of different positions he's been bounced around to. Vincent Brown was added to the special teams duties last year in an effort to help Poindexter, because special teams also sucked in 2010, and obviously that's worked about as well as Professor Echols's decision to blow up the Rotunda. London needs to seriously evaluate whether Poindexter's recruiting chops are a net positive compared to his coaching. Bringing talent into the program is cool and all, but Dex's special teams just cost us the Maryland game, which besides losing to effing Maryland is a huge blow to recruiting in Dex's own geographical assignment (he's responsible for NOVA and Maryland.)
If the answer is no, we can't afford to lose his recruiting skills, then it's still time for a staff shuffle, starting with the special teams, which should be under the purview of the head coach for the rest of the year. That's the level of attention they need, and that's the way to send the message to the brickheaded dumbasses who think it's a good idea to throw a block in the back while our runner cruises out of bounds - or throw post-whistle shoves on routine field goals - that their mistakes are being watched. Christ, even the one really good, applaudable play on kick cover was a last-second, shoestring, touchdown saving tackle that wouldn't have been necessary if we could cover kicks.
We can kill two birds with one stone if the staff is reshuffled, even if Dex is retained. Move Dex to RBs and give the safeties over to Chip West, who already coaches the corners. Give the QBs and WRs to Mike Faragalli, who's done both before. Bill Lazor likes to be on the sidelines during the game so he can coach the QBs, but he's the OC - he needs to be in the booth. It'll improve his playcalling, which is a little goofy at times. (Although, I don't fault him for the screen passes on third and long. Shit, if the O-line is going to let pass rushers have free shots at our quarterback, might as well do it on purpose and get it out of the way faster. There was some running room there and those screens damn near worked.)
Further reactions in brief:
-- Where the heck did the run game come from all of a sudden? As bullshit as that game was, you have to give a huge tip of the cap to the run-blocking, which only made the game even more bullshit really because we really should win with that kind of performance. Also, Kevin Parks needs to start eating into Perry Jones's carries.
-- Yes, we are past the point of no return at quarterback. It's Sims or bust, in the hope that he can figure out the timing with more playing time. I said it here and I said it on the messageboards and I said it for weeks: judging Phillip Sims based on garbage time without the game on his shoulders and with the coaches purposely setting him up for success was stupid. Expecting him to just come out slinging and hitting every receiver in sight was stupid. But it's too late to go back, now. Consider Rocco a very experienced insurance policy.
-- Yes, it's also way too damn early to be calling for the head coach's job or giving up on the London era, even as I'm so damn done with the special teams coaching. But certain troubling examples are starting to show. Consider: Laroy Reynolds (a senior, mind you), in pass coverage on the sidelines, draws a bead on his assignment and zeroes in so hard he fails to notice the ball was horrendously overthrown. If he's able to catch it, with his speed it's probably six points and a huge momentum booster, what with being down two touchdowns at the time. Instead he laser-focuses on the big hit, and delivers it - way, way late. Everyone on the planet could see a flag coming. Everyone, that is, except Reynolds and Mike London. The former sits for a play and the latter bitches at the refs. Well, Reynolds doesn't exactly "sit" - he stalks the sidelines loudly bemoaning the unfairness of the obvious flag. I don't hold with calling for a coach's job two and a half seasons into his tenure, but can you blame anyone for being irritated at the coaching staff for putting more energy into complaining at the ref than actually coaching? Informing Reynolds to shut up and pay attention to the ball would've been infinitely more productive.
-- October baseball is a pleasant and welcome distraction from October football when the Tigers are cruising like they're cruising, so: an observation on that instead. Which is: someone please shut Joe Girardi the hell up about instant replay. Hey Joe, maybe if your 200 million dollar lineup didn't swing noodle bats and could score one stinking run against someone besides Detroit's strugglin'-ass closer, maybe it would've mattered that the umpire blew that call. Maybe if your shit bullpen didn't give up RBI singles to rookie outfielders while you spend $14 million on a second baseman to go zilch-for-twenty-six and biff double plays while the winning run scores from third, you'd have a case. And maybe if you could hit when it was 0-0, you wouldn't sound so silly complaining that 3-0 makes a real big difference. If you can't hit Doug Fister and Anibal Sanchez, I can't wait to see what happens when it's Justin Verlander on the hill. Wheeeeeeee.... go Tigers!
Let us delve into the prediction summary:
-- UVA finally picks up more than one sack. We got two! I don't expect this to ever happen again all year! And Maryland had five!
-- Perry Jones is UVA's least productive running back on the ground. As I was looking this over I realized it was fairly ambiguous and left me too much wiggle room. Then I realized it didn't matter. Jones had 23 yards on 10 carries, which gives him both the lowest total and the lowest average. He found no room at all. Kevin Parks found a ton and has more or less officially supplanted Jones as the feature back. He even caught more passes than Jones.
-- Neither team has a back gain more than 50 yards. Well, I grossly underestimated UVA's running game skills, but not til I got right to this point did I realize how dominant our run defense was. Holy balls you guys. Maryland's leading rusher was Perry Hills - that's their QB in case you weren't paying attention - with seven yards on seven carries. Justus Pickett carried 15 times for minus-eight yards. Counting kneel-downs and sacks, Maryland's rushing "attack" went backwards: 29 attempts, -2 yards. Holy hell.
-- Jake McGee catches a pass of 30+ yards. Neg.
2 for 4 is a slight bump upwards to 13 of 34, or 38%. But I'm 4-3 in outcome predictions and 0-5-2 ATS. Next week I'm picking Wake Forest no matter what. Either my record gets better or the team's does.
Now for the Blogpoll:
From Old Virginia Ballot - Week 7
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish |  1 |
| 2 | Florida Gators | 2 |
| 3 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 2 |
| 4 | Kansas St. Wildcats | 5 |
| 5 | Oregon Ducks |  -2 |
| 6 | Stanford Cardinal | 1 |
| 7 | Florida St. Seminoles | 3 |
| 8 | Oregon St. Beavers | 4 |
| 9 | Texas Tech Red Raiders | 13 |
| 10 | Iowa St. Cyclones | 3 |
| 11 | Texas A&M Aggies | 4 |
| 12 | South Carolina Gamecocks | -11 |
| 13 | Ohio St. Buckeyes | -7 |
| 14 | West Virginia Mountaineers | -6 |
| 15 | North Carolina Tar Heels | 3 |
| 16 | LSU Tigers | 4 |
| 17 | Oklahoma Sooners | -- |
| 18 | Texas Longhorns | -7 |
| 19 | Penn St. Nittany Lions | -2 |
| 20 | Georgia Bulldogs | -6 |
| 21 | Arizona St. Sun Devils | -- |
| 22 | USC Trojans | -3 |
| 23 | Michigan Wolverines | -- |
| 24 | UCLA Bruins | -- |
| 25 | Northwestern Wildcats | -- |
| Dropouts: N.C. State Wolfpack, Duke Blue Devils, Cincinnati Bearcats, Ohio Bobcats | ||
SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »
-- Ohio went yet another week with a terrible win over a terrible team. I said I would stop rescuing them from my own system if they did that again, and they did that again, so I'm not.
-- South Carolina's fall from grace seems a bit steep, doesn't it? I explain this by saying that a lot of their SEC wins (Vandy, Mizzou, UK) are looking worse and worse by the week. Still, perhaps that's too low for a team I had as the best in the country last week.
-- Notre Dame, however, is a thoroughly deserving #1.
-- Oregon State might be top five if they hadn't had two off dates.
-- This ballot is proof of the Blogpoll's superiority to the media poll. I have Mississippi State 28th, right where they belong since their best win is a 10-pointer over 3-3 Tennessee. The media thinks they're a top-25 team because they beat Auburn when people thought Auburn was good, and the media doesn't remove you from their poll if you keep winning, regardless of how bad the teams are that you beat.
This week's pool of eligible teams dropped to 37 from 44. Three teams were added, and a few teams dropped out because they fell below the limit for wins (4-3 is out, 4-2 is in) and some more because I changed the rule so that now, you have to either be undefeated or have a win over a Big Five team with at least a .500 record. This is known as "just because you beat Kansas doesn't make you cool." Sharp-eyed viewers will notice that one or two teams don't fit this rule (not telling which) but they were on the ballot last week so I grandfathered them in.
The Senior Seasons feature will have to wait til tomorrow because I got way busy with school this week (take-home midterms, yo) and what with the Tigers and Lions and all else I didn't get around to the ballot til today.
Monday, September 10, 2012
weekend review
Back in 1999, Alabama had a kicker named Ryan Pflugner. Besides the fact that my brain is calibrated to remember absurdly trivial details (and forget that I have homework due this week) there's no good reason for me to remember this, except for one: the 2000 Michigan-Alabama Orange Bowl. I don't even remember who kicked for Michigan in that game. But I remember Pflugner, because Michigan needed overtime to win that game and won it when Pflugner honked an extra point wide right. Wasn't even blocked. Just, oops.
The UVA side of me might now have its own Ryan Pflugner in the person of Sam Ficken, the poor bastard who Penn State depended on for points after its sputtering offense failed to muster any forward progress for most of Saturday afternoon. Ficken failed in a way that only a small fraternity of fellow kickers can empathize with (oh hell, I'll come right out and say it: Ficken's kicking looked like my golfing), and Penn State's kicking game left 13 points in all on the field instead of putting them on the board. Bill O'Brien will probably talk all week about how it wasn't an individual failure, the whole team could have done better, and then trot someone else out for placekicks next Saturday, because that is how coaches handle this.
So it's obviously natural to assume we only won because of that. It's true, but it's just as true that you have to put the other team in position to make those mistakes. You might call it an ugly game because the offense looked so out of sorts most of the time, but you couldn't have asked for a better performance out of the defense. Most teams aren't going to be as offensively inept as Penn State, but that doesn't take away from the yeoman work done by the defense.
As a result, we sit here, 2-0 for the second straight year, and for the second straight year after a narrow, come-from-behind win against a Big Ten team, with a game-winning drive (OK, last year it was game-tying) engineered by Mike Rocco. Fans are rightly concerned about the rest of the season what with that offensive line looking pretty offensive and affording us no running game whatsoever, but one thing people always do too much of is to assume the rest of the season will look like the most recent game. Hence the college football tradition of hilarious overreaction to losses. The possibility for improvement (or injury, or regression, or other teams getting better faster) is rarely considered. Therefore we see a lot of gloomy predictions for the season. I am unapolegetically optimistic at this point, despite all.
These next two games - Georgia Tech and TCU - are tough, but keep in mind I said I'd be OK if we won just one game in this three-game stretch, and we've accomplished that. After that....
-- After TCU, we could easily see a four-game winning streak - Louisiana Tech, Duke, Maryland, and Wake Forest await.
-- Wake, Miami (which is not a good team), Maryland, and UNC (which lost to Wake) are all at home.
-- If Wake can beat UNC - this is the same Wake that beat Liberty by three - then so can we.
-- NC State isn't too remarkably impressive so far either.
There should be no reason that a repeat of last year's 8-4 season isn't achievable. Achievable, I said, not guaranteed. I won't be all kinds of surprised if we don't make it. You shouldn't be all kinds of surprised if we do.
Short-form items:
-- That run-blocking was horrible, though. When Penn State didn't stack the box, typically we ended up with no gain. When they did, we went backwards. The coaches will need to keep the possibility of moving Morgan Moses to guard in their back pocket, just in case.
-- Steve Greer: 15 tackles, two sacks. Henry Coley: 11 tackles, one blocked kick. Laroy Reynolds: 9 tackles. And Daquan Romero looked decent when he was in. The linebackers definitely ruled the day. On both sides of the ball, mind you, but ours turned out just a little better.
-- Jake McGee looks like an absolute matchup nightmare.
-- Mike London needs to forget about this fascination with quarterback rotations. It has yet to ever result in good things happening. About the only useful thing gained from putting in Phillip Sims for two drives was to bring the hype train back to earth; Rocco wasn't having an awesome game, but Sims clearly isn't ready. It's one thing to look really damn good when the game is in hand and there's no pressure and you've been set up for success, but it's a completely different story with the game on the line.
-- PSU's offensive line is pretty crummy for the most part, and they have one wide receiver worth a damn, and even that guy (Allen Robinson) had a really bad drop that cost them a ton. And all that said, I'm still coming out encouraged by the pass rush and the play of the secondary. We did have to dial up some blitzes in order to record any sacks, but Eli Harold and Ausar Walcott got into the backfield pretty effectively. There is some solid tackling going on in the secondary, too; I like the fundamentals that I see out of Demetrious Nicholson and Anthony Harris in that respect. Nicholson had a good day outside of getting torched on Robinson's touchdown, and kudos also to Drequan Hoskey for sticking with his assignment and ruining Penn State's flea-flicker.
-- PSU would later score on that opening drive, but I wasn't actually too perturbed about that. Penn State needed 17 plays to score. No offense in the world can replicate that often enough to win. What was perturbing was handing the ball right back, immediately. Sure, we needed Sam Ficken to kick the ball everywhere but between the uprights for us to win, but PSU needed our help in the form of friendly turnovers in lousy field position in order to even put Ficken in position to miss.
********************************************************
Prediction summary time: let's see how I did this week.
-- UVA's run game isn't any better than last week's. In retrospect, kind of a weak prediction. True, but weak. If I'd wanted to get really ballsy I'd have said the run game would've sucked giant anteater nuts and I'd still have been right.
-- On the flip side, Penn State is held to about 2.5 yards a carry. We're going to take out their fake punt, because that's special teams and not strictly the run game, and what we get is 102 yards on 41 carries for an average of 2.49 yards per attempt. Niiiiiiice.
-- Mike Rocco tops 300 yards again. Well dammit, he might have if we hadn't seen at least three flat drops. Adrian Gamble should've had that beautiful fade throw in the first quarter, although that will come with a little experience - that is, he'll learn that when the coverage is to the inside like that, the quarterback ain't throwing where the coverage is. Dominique Terrell also stonehanded another perfect strike from Rocco. As it is, I lose this one since Rocco totaled only 258 yards.
-- Darius Jennings goes for 100 yards and a touchdown. Jennings didn't reach either milestone; if I'd said Jake McGee here I'd have given myself this one since McGee ended up with 99. But one thing is coming clear regardless: Jennings is rapidly establishing himself as easily the team's most dependable wide receiver, and is on pace for a 900+ yard season.
-- McGloin completes 60% of his passes. No.
-- But doesn't top 7 yards per attempt. And yes; he scraped by at 5.6, which is another encouraging thing for our defense.
3-for-6 this week; add to my performance last week and I'm now 5-for-11. Not completely terrible, but the goal is to be over 50%. I predicted the win, yay me, but managed to predict a margin exactly the same as the spread, which makes me 2-0 straight up and 0-0-2 ATS.
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It's late and you've been waiting patiently all day, so I'm cutting this one off at the knees and moving the Senior Seasons feature to tomorrow. One last depth-chart note: no substantial changes this week, or changes of any kind really, except that the team announced that Pablo Alvarez is out for the year, which makes Anthony Cooper the backup at strong safety. I'll get around to putting up the adjusted depth chart sometime before Thursday.
The UVA side of me might now have its own Ryan Pflugner in the person of Sam Ficken, the poor bastard who Penn State depended on for points after its sputtering offense failed to muster any forward progress for most of Saturday afternoon. Ficken failed in a way that only a small fraternity of fellow kickers can empathize with (oh hell, I'll come right out and say it: Ficken's kicking looked like my golfing), and Penn State's kicking game left 13 points in all on the field instead of putting them on the board. Bill O'Brien will probably talk all week about how it wasn't an individual failure, the whole team could have done better, and then trot someone else out for placekicks next Saturday, because that is how coaches handle this.
So it's obviously natural to assume we only won because of that. It's true, but it's just as true that you have to put the other team in position to make those mistakes. You might call it an ugly game because the offense looked so out of sorts most of the time, but you couldn't have asked for a better performance out of the defense. Most teams aren't going to be as offensively inept as Penn State, but that doesn't take away from the yeoman work done by the defense.
As a result, we sit here, 2-0 for the second straight year, and for the second straight year after a narrow, come-from-behind win against a Big Ten team, with a game-winning drive (OK, last year it was game-tying) engineered by Mike Rocco. Fans are rightly concerned about the rest of the season what with that offensive line looking pretty offensive and affording us no running game whatsoever, but one thing people always do too much of is to assume the rest of the season will look like the most recent game. Hence the college football tradition of hilarious overreaction to losses. The possibility for improvement (or injury, or regression, or other teams getting better faster) is rarely considered. Therefore we see a lot of gloomy predictions for the season. I am unapolegetically optimistic at this point, despite all.
These next two games - Georgia Tech and TCU - are tough, but keep in mind I said I'd be OK if we won just one game in this three-game stretch, and we've accomplished that. After that....
-- After TCU, we could easily see a four-game winning streak - Louisiana Tech, Duke, Maryland, and Wake Forest await.
-- Wake, Miami (which is not a good team), Maryland, and UNC (which lost to Wake) are all at home.
-- If Wake can beat UNC - this is the same Wake that beat Liberty by three - then so can we.
-- NC State isn't too remarkably impressive so far either.
There should be no reason that a repeat of last year's 8-4 season isn't achievable. Achievable, I said, not guaranteed. I won't be all kinds of surprised if we don't make it. You shouldn't be all kinds of surprised if we do.
Short-form items:
-- That run-blocking was horrible, though. When Penn State didn't stack the box, typically we ended up with no gain. When they did, we went backwards. The coaches will need to keep the possibility of moving Morgan Moses to guard in their back pocket, just in case.
-- Steve Greer: 15 tackles, two sacks. Henry Coley: 11 tackles, one blocked kick. Laroy Reynolds: 9 tackles. And Daquan Romero looked decent when he was in. The linebackers definitely ruled the day. On both sides of the ball, mind you, but ours turned out just a little better.
-- Jake McGee looks like an absolute matchup nightmare.
-- Mike London needs to forget about this fascination with quarterback rotations. It has yet to ever result in good things happening. About the only useful thing gained from putting in Phillip Sims for two drives was to bring the hype train back to earth; Rocco wasn't having an awesome game, but Sims clearly isn't ready. It's one thing to look really damn good when the game is in hand and there's no pressure and you've been set up for success, but it's a completely different story with the game on the line.
-- PSU's offensive line is pretty crummy for the most part, and they have one wide receiver worth a damn, and even that guy (Allen Robinson) had a really bad drop that cost them a ton. And all that said, I'm still coming out encouraged by the pass rush and the play of the secondary. We did have to dial up some blitzes in order to record any sacks, but Eli Harold and Ausar Walcott got into the backfield pretty effectively. There is some solid tackling going on in the secondary, too; I like the fundamentals that I see out of Demetrious Nicholson and Anthony Harris in that respect. Nicholson had a good day outside of getting torched on Robinson's touchdown, and kudos also to Drequan Hoskey for sticking with his assignment and ruining Penn State's flea-flicker.
-- PSU would later score on that opening drive, but I wasn't actually too perturbed about that. Penn State needed 17 plays to score. No offense in the world can replicate that often enough to win. What was perturbing was handing the ball right back, immediately. Sure, we needed Sam Ficken to kick the ball everywhere but between the uprights for us to win, but PSU needed our help in the form of friendly turnovers in lousy field position in order to even put Ficken in position to miss.
********************************************************
Prediction summary time: let's see how I did this week.
-- UVA's run game isn't any better than last week's. In retrospect, kind of a weak prediction. True, but weak. If I'd wanted to get really ballsy I'd have said the run game would've sucked giant anteater nuts and I'd still have been right.
-- On the flip side, Penn State is held to about 2.5 yards a carry. We're going to take out their fake punt, because that's special teams and not strictly the run game, and what we get is 102 yards on 41 carries for an average of 2.49 yards per attempt. Niiiiiiice.
-- Mike Rocco tops 300 yards again. Well dammit, he might have if we hadn't seen at least three flat drops. Adrian Gamble should've had that beautiful fade throw in the first quarter, although that will come with a little experience - that is, he'll learn that when the coverage is to the inside like that, the quarterback ain't throwing where the coverage is. Dominique Terrell also stonehanded another perfect strike from Rocco. As it is, I lose this one since Rocco totaled only 258 yards.
-- Darius Jennings goes for 100 yards and a touchdown. Jennings didn't reach either milestone; if I'd said Jake McGee here I'd have given myself this one since McGee ended up with 99. But one thing is coming clear regardless: Jennings is rapidly establishing himself as easily the team's most dependable wide receiver, and is on pace for a 900+ yard season.
-- McGloin completes 60% of his passes. No.
-- But doesn't top 7 yards per attempt. And yes; he scraped by at 5.6, which is another encouraging thing for our defense.
3-for-6 this week; add to my performance last week and I'm now 5-for-11. Not completely terrible, but the goal is to be over 50%. I predicted the win, yay me, but managed to predict a margin exactly the same as the spread, which makes me 2-0 straight up and 0-0-2 ATS.
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It's late and you've been waiting patiently all day, so I'm cutting this one off at the knees and moving the Senior Seasons feature to tomorrow. One last depth-chart note: no substantial changes this week, or changes of any kind really, except that the team announced that Pablo Alvarez is out for the year, which makes Anthony Cooper the backup at strong safety. I'll get around to putting up the adjusted depth chart sometime before Thursday.
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
sportscenter top ten
It's time to count down the top ten plays. Of the season. I wish I could do it all Sportscenter-style with highlights and witty commentary, but I don't even have the highlights yet and some of them, I never did. So you'll just have to see it in your mind's eye.
These are the ten plays from 2011 that I thought were most influential on the season and in getting us to the Peach Bowl. Keep in mind - there are literally over a thousand to choose from. So you are highly encouraged to come up with some of your own if these don't satisfy, or you think there's an omission. A lot of this comes from a quick-and-dirty memory search of my own gray matter - I figured if a play still resonates in December, it was probably that important. Oh, and they all had good outcomes, or at least, non-bad ones. So that one time we got totally sacked and threw an interception and fumbled and the other team scored twice on the same play and plus we got a 15-yard penalty for general principles, that didn't make the cut.
So here are this season's ten best:
#10
-- Idaho's overtime two-point conversion attempt falls incomplete.
Lost in the final score, a narrow, 21-20 win for UVA, was that the Hoos basically dominated this game. I'm not kidding. We racked up almost 500 total yards, held Brian Reader to 17-of-41 passing, and Mike Rocco was efficient and took care of the ball. But fumbles, missed field goals, and a blocked punt that was taken back for a touchdown almost turned the game into a disaster. Idaho scored on their first possession of OT, and like all upstart WAC-snacks who smell a win, went for the all-or-nothing proposition. But the UVA defense forced Reader from the pocket and then knocked down his pass attempt to preserve the win. A true team effort. I almost feel like this one should be higher - we definitely don't go to the Peach Bowl at 7-5 with that loss to Idaho, and who knows what the psyche of the team might have otherwise been like? The score masked a much better game than appearances would have it, but fortunately, it was only a veil rather than an ugly black cloud.
#9
-- Mike Rocco passes to Tim Smith for 34 yards in Tallahassee
In front of a sold-out and hostile Seminole crowd - it is never any different in Tallahassee - UVA had played an outstanding game on defense but only had a 13-7 deficit to show for it. The offense had been largely motionless, other than a second-quarter drive capped by a gorgeous Rocco-to-Jones TD toss. With 1:53 to go, the Hoos needed another comeback drive and a touchdown, or the game would simply go down as a moral-victory-but-there's-no-such-thing.
UVA started at their own 25, but the speed in which Rocco marched the team downfield was stunning. On 2nd-and-1 on the second play of the drive, he found Tim Smith open downfield for a 34-yard pickup, the longest Rocco pass play of the night. That hushed the crowd and changed the dynamic of the drive - UVA still had a minute and a half to score and now had the ball on the Florida State 32. The rest was too easy; Kevin Parks would punch it in three plays later with entirely too much time on the clock, giving UVA a 14-13 lead and setting up one of the wildest finishes to any college football game in recent memory.
#8
-- Chase Minnifield pick-six
Against Duke, UVA was having a very chippy game; it was turning out nastier than anyone had expected, and the score was (controversially) tied, 14-14, at halftime, and Duke would receive the second-half kick. On the fourth play of the half's opening drive, however, Cam Johnson cam roaring around the edge, abusing Duke's Takoby Cofield for the umpteenth time that day, and forced Sean Renfree into a poor read and a hurried pass. It was too far ahead of the receiver, and it settled easily into Minnifield's hands, who ran untouched into the end zone to give UVA a 21-14 lead.
Duke would soon tie it up, aided by an out-of-bounds kickoff and a 51-yard pass to the red zone, but the pick-six energized the Hoos, and when the offense finally got a hold of the ball, they would answer the Duke TD with one of their own for a lead they'd never relinquish.
#7
-- Rodney McLeod picks off Danny O'Brien
Playing for bowl eligibility in College Park, UVA had just scored a 3rd-quarter touchdown to take a 21-13 lead, after trailing in the second quarter. Maryland was trying to respond, and they began their drive with a 39-yard pass play to set themselves up in Virginia territory. But on second down following that, Rodney McLeod picked off Danny O'Brien to end the threat.
There is often a turning point in a football game, or rather, in this case, a screw-it point. Maryland's season was already in the toilet, and in fact, they were smack in the middle of a season-ending eight-game losing streak. UVA scored relatively easily after McLeod's interception, and the game's only other tally was a score-padding field goal early in the fourth. Psychologically, the Terps were done after McLeod's pick, his first of three, and UVA would have that coveted sixth win for bowl eligibility.
#6
-- Matt Conrath destroys the handoff
It was a dead heat, for me, between this and Conrath's field-goal block that came a few plays later. I chose this one because it's the single awesomest thing a defensive lineman can do: tackle the quarterback as he's handing the ball off, or even before. Nobody expects it. Nobody coaches with that in mind. Even with a field goal block, teams are trained up on 1) how to avoid it in the first place and 2) what to do if they occur. It's a waste of practice time to say, OK guys, here's what you must do if the quarterback fails to execute the handoff because there's a bad man in the backfield.
Yet that is precisely what happened against Duke. The setup: It's a scoreless game, and it's Duke, and much to everyone's chagrin, Duke is only one of two teams that have beaten us all three of the previous losing seasons. I mean, you hate that VT does it but they're really good. Duke is Duke. So it chafes that Duke has been on our case. UNC, Maryland, Miami, GT - we've beaten them at least once, but not Duke. So here we are in a scoreless game, the defense has just made a big third-down stop, and Duke punts - and our returner makes a really nutty, boneheaded decision, muffs the punt, and hands Duke the ball in awesome field position. And they start moving the ball.
Then, on first down, Matt Conrath makes a mess. He completely disregards his blocker and roars into the backfield, slamming into Sean Renfree as he tries to execute a basic handoff. Renfree fumbles, Duke recovers - but 2nd and 15 is too much to overcome, and Duke tries a field goal. Which Conrath also destroys.
The UVA offense then marched smartly down the field, and instead of Duke taking a 7-0 lead, it's UVA with the opening salvo. Instead of "here we go again" it's "get off my lawn." The entire sequence, by the way, convinced the Duke coaches that it was Conrath, not Cam Johnson, who needed to be double-teamed, and Johnson spent the rest of the day proving that yes, he needed to be double-teamed too.
#5
-- Perry Jones and the slant-six
Against Miami on Thursday night, UVA was trying to get out of a rut. In an attempt to salvage the season, Mike London had announced that the QB platoon was no more, and the results thus far into the game had been very positive. But Miami had just turned a short pass to Tommy Streeter into a 51-yard touchdown, and was threatening to move into the lead, with the score 20-14, UVA. On the subsequent drive, Virginia faced a critical third down deep in its territory, and the Miami crowd was sensing punt. So was the Miami defense; and not only that, they were sensing run. Miami loaded the box to stop what it thought would be a handoff.
But UVA had no intention of running. UVA's pre-snap motion telegraphed the defense to Rocco, and with a linebacker - Miami's James Gaines - trying to cover Perry Jones in the slot, the read was easy. Rocco threw the slant on a dart, and the target found bullseye - a beautiful throw. Gaines gambled on the knockdown and lost, and with no safety help over the top, Jones was free to sprint the final 75 yards to the end zone. UVA scored on the 2PC to earn a 28-14 lead, and every one of those points later came in handy....
#4
-- Laroy Reynolds on fourth and ballgame
Course, that touchdown was looking awfully fragile by this time. Miami sliced the deficit in half on the ensuing drive, and a three-and-out drive that started on our own eight-yard-line resulted in fantastic field position for the Canes. They started just the other side of the 50, and churned their way to the UVA 15, eating up time as they went. I'm pretty sure 90% of the UVA fanbase was dreading the very idea of overtime; you hate to go when it's you that's blown the lead.
The defense put Miami in its second fourth-down of the drive at the 15-yard-line, and with about two minutes to go, it was basically fourth-and-ballgame. With two minutes and change left in the game, it was obvious that if Miami failed to convert, even if they got the ball back they'd have precious little time and no timeouts to work with. If they did convert, they'd be just 13 yards or less from the end zone and able to work at whatever leisurely pace they desired.
Miami called a second straight handoff to Mike James, pulling their right guard and intending to power-run off-tackle to pick up the first. But Laroy Reynolds was either blitzing that very spot, or read the play quick enough to look like it. He blew past the tight end assigned to block him and smothered James in the backfield with a perfect tackle. Miami did indeed get another chance at the ball after UVA picked up only one first down, but Reynolds's play put all the pressure back on the Canes, and essentially preserved the win for UVA. It would be the first win of a season-making four-game win streak.
#3
-- FSU's Bert Reed doesn't quite haul it in
I'm not going to cheat and call a whole series of plays one for the purposes of this list. Otherwise the whole FSU drive could go here. In picking the catch that wasn't, the most disservice is done to Bill Schautz and Drequan Hoskey, whose picture-perfect, textbook defense was responsible for two pass breakups.
But in the wildest finish of the season, how can we pick any other play but the one we stared at for ten minutes? The circumstances of the play put everyone on opposite sides of sanity; UVA coaches were insisting that the Florida State receiver had made a perfectly good catch, and FSU wanted the catch by their own player overturned and ruled incomplete. The entire drive had been a Chinese fire drill from the start and generally an example of poor clock-management by the FSU sideline. Left with no timeouts, and on the edge of field goal range, the Seminole coaches called for a sideline pass. A quick strike that would see the receiver catch the ball, gain a couple of cheap yards, and his momentum carry him out of bounds, stopping the clock and allowing kicked Dustin Hopkins plenty of time to set up his game-winning field goal.
Bert Reed was the target, and unfortunately for the Noles, Reed wasn't close enough to the sideline. He dove for the ball with Laroy Reynolds providing quality coverage, and appeared - to the side judge anyway - to have successfully hauled it in. Inbounds. The clock ticked on, and expired before FSU could get their FG unit on. Except - an excruciatingly long review concluded Reed didn't have control of the ball, and called the play incomplete.
The later events - an obscure penalty call on Virginia and a wide-left kick anyway - only served to add to the absurdery that was the final minute-and-six of that game. But it's the overturned completion, with UVA's coaches herding their players back to the sideline and insisting it was a good catch by the other team, and the three thousand replays over four hours (in football-fan time) before any decision was made, is what really leaves the most indelible imprint.
#2
-- Cam Johnson eats Edward Wright-Baker for dinner
As results go, beating eventual 1-11 Indiana by three doesn't rank too well. But simply earning that win gave UVA several firsts - first road win for Mike London, first 2-0 start in however long - and had UVA not beaten the Hoosiers after starting the game so strongly, this, like Idaho also, could have been a psyche-killer.
UVA had had a 23-3 lead and then blown the whole thing and then some, finding itself down 31-23 in front of a suddenly delighted Hoosier crowd. But Mike Rocco had put together a drive that still ranks as one of the season's finest, and capped it with a 2PC to tie the game at 31 - still, 96 seconds remained, and Indiana had driven the ball well enough in the second half that the crowd was plenty confident that they could work their way to field-goal range and seal it up. Wright-Baker would eventually be replaced later in the season as IU's starting QB, but on this day he was a thorn, and in the second half had discovered how to make plays with his legs. This latter skill was killing the Hoos.
Cam Johnson, therefore, decided he wouldn't get the chance. Johnson roared past the left tackle and pounced on the unsuspecting Wright-Baker. The sack was one thing - it would've forced Indiana to punt and given UVA a shot at winning. But Johnson didn't only sack Wright-Baker, he ripped the ball free, and didn't even allow it the courtesy of bouncing on the ground. Johnson landed on the IU 14-yard-line, ball in hand, with the referee emphatically gesturing the change of possession. It was too fast for normal human eyes to register - first there was a beast in the backfield, and then it was UVA's ball. Just like that. Rarely does one single individual play directly lead to a win if it's not accompanied by the clock expiring, but this was the perfect example of such an individual effort.
#1
-- Chase Minnifield hauls ass
This one goes here for sheer hustle. Kids, this is why you hustle. It matters. It really does.
The setup: Bert Reed has just caught a pass from E.J. Manuel that traveled 15-ish yards in the air, and he's busting his butt to travel the rest of them between catch and end zone. He's beaten his coverage, broken one tackle, and nobody is near him. End zone is in sight, and Florida State will take a 17-7 lead. That's not much, but in the context of a defensive struggle, yes it is. It's like when a pitchers' duel is 1-0 and then suddenly it's 3-0. It feels like game over.
Chase Minnifield is a hair faster than Bert Reed, though, and he was having none of this. Minnifield sprinted for dear life after Reed, and caught up to him I mean literally just in time. Any fraction of a second later and it wouldn't have mattered, but Minnifield was able to trip Reed up, and he came to earth at the 1-yard line.
Three plays later, FSU was two yards further back and kicking a field goal to stretch the lead to 13-7. At the time, it felt like small consolation. But the final score of the biggest win of London's UVA career was, as you'll recall, 14-13. Turns out Chase Minnifield's hustle was the difference between winning and losing after all.
These are the ten plays from 2011 that I thought were most influential on the season and in getting us to the Peach Bowl. Keep in mind - there are literally over a thousand to choose from. So you are highly encouraged to come up with some of your own if these don't satisfy, or you think there's an omission. A lot of this comes from a quick-and-dirty memory search of my own gray matter - I figured if a play still resonates in December, it was probably that important. Oh, and they all had good outcomes, or at least, non-bad ones. So that one time we got totally sacked and threw an interception and fumbled and the other team scored twice on the same play and plus we got a 15-yard penalty for general principles, that didn't make the cut.
So here are this season's ten best:
#10
-- Idaho's overtime two-point conversion attempt falls incomplete.
Lost in the final score, a narrow, 21-20 win for UVA, was that the Hoos basically dominated this game. I'm not kidding. We racked up almost 500 total yards, held Brian Reader to 17-of-41 passing, and Mike Rocco was efficient and took care of the ball. But fumbles, missed field goals, and a blocked punt that was taken back for a touchdown almost turned the game into a disaster. Idaho scored on their first possession of OT, and like all upstart WAC-snacks who smell a win, went for the all-or-nothing proposition. But the UVA defense forced Reader from the pocket and then knocked down his pass attempt to preserve the win. A true team effort. I almost feel like this one should be higher - we definitely don't go to the Peach Bowl at 7-5 with that loss to Idaho, and who knows what the psyche of the team might have otherwise been like? The score masked a much better game than appearances would have it, but fortunately, it was only a veil rather than an ugly black cloud.
#9
-- Mike Rocco passes to Tim Smith for 34 yards in Tallahassee
In front of a sold-out and hostile Seminole crowd - it is never any different in Tallahassee - UVA had played an outstanding game on defense but only had a 13-7 deficit to show for it. The offense had been largely motionless, other than a second-quarter drive capped by a gorgeous Rocco-to-Jones TD toss. With 1:53 to go, the Hoos needed another comeback drive and a touchdown, or the game would simply go down as a moral-victory-but-there's-no-such-thing.
UVA started at their own 25, but the speed in which Rocco marched the team downfield was stunning. On 2nd-and-1 on the second play of the drive, he found Tim Smith open downfield for a 34-yard pickup, the longest Rocco pass play of the night. That hushed the crowd and changed the dynamic of the drive - UVA still had a minute and a half to score and now had the ball on the Florida State 32. The rest was too easy; Kevin Parks would punch it in three plays later with entirely too much time on the clock, giving UVA a 14-13 lead and setting up one of the wildest finishes to any college football game in recent memory.
#8
-- Chase Minnifield pick-six
Against Duke, UVA was having a very chippy game; it was turning out nastier than anyone had expected, and the score was (controversially) tied, 14-14, at halftime, and Duke would receive the second-half kick. On the fourth play of the half's opening drive, however, Cam Johnson cam roaring around the edge, abusing Duke's Takoby Cofield for the umpteenth time that day, and forced Sean Renfree into a poor read and a hurried pass. It was too far ahead of the receiver, and it settled easily into Minnifield's hands, who ran untouched into the end zone to give UVA a 21-14 lead.
Duke would soon tie it up, aided by an out-of-bounds kickoff and a 51-yard pass to the red zone, but the pick-six energized the Hoos, and when the offense finally got a hold of the ball, they would answer the Duke TD with one of their own for a lead they'd never relinquish.
#7
-- Rodney McLeod picks off Danny O'Brien
Playing for bowl eligibility in College Park, UVA had just scored a 3rd-quarter touchdown to take a 21-13 lead, after trailing in the second quarter. Maryland was trying to respond, and they began their drive with a 39-yard pass play to set themselves up in Virginia territory. But on second down following that, Rodney McLeod picked off Danny O'Brien to end the threat.
There is often a turning point in a football game, or rather, in this case, a screw-it point. Maryland's season was already in the toilet, and in fact, they were smack in the middle of a season-ending eight-game losing streak. UVA scored relatively easily after McLeod's interception, and the game's only other tally was a score-padding field goal early in the fourth. Psychologically, the Terps were done after McLeod's pick, his first of three, and UVA would have that coveted sixth win for bowl eligibility.
#6
-- Matt Conrath destroys the handoff
It was a dead heat, for me, between this and Conrath's field-goal block that came a few plays later. I chose this one because it's the single awesomest thing a defensive lineman can do: tackle the quarterback as he's handing the ball off, or even before. Nobody expects it. Nobody coaches with that in mind. Even with a field goal block, teams are trained up on 1) how to avoid it in the first place and 2) what to do if they occur. It's a waste of practice time to say, OK guys, here's what you must do if the quarterback fails to execute the handoff because there's a bad man in the backfield.
Yet that is precisely what happened against Duke. The setup: It's a scoreless game, and it's Duke, and much to everyone's chagrin, Duke is only one of two teams that have beaten us all three of the previous losing seasons. I mean, you hate that VT does it but they're really good. Duke is Duke. So it chafes that Duke has been on our case. UNC, Maryland, Miami, GT - we've beaten them at least once, but not Duke. So here we are in a scoreless game, the defense has just made a big third-down stop, and Duke punts - and our returner makes a really nutty, boneheaded decision, muffs the punt, and hands Duke the ball in awesome field position. And they start moving the ball.
Then, on first down, Matt Conrath makes a mess. He completely disregards his blocker and roars into the backfield, slamming into Sean Renfree as he tries to execute a basic handoff. Renfree fumbles, Duke recovers - but 2nd and 15 is too much to overcome, and Duke tries a field goal. Which Conrath also destroys.
The UVA offense then marched smartly down the field, and instead of Duke taking a 7-0 lead, it's UVA with the opening salvo. Instead of "here we go again" it's "get off my lawn." The entire sequence, by the way, convinced the Duke coaches that it was Conrath, not Cam Johnson, who needed to be double-teamed, and Johnson spent the rest of the day proving that yes, he needed to be double-teamed too.
#5
-- Perry Jones and the slant-six
Against Miami on Thursday night, UVA was trying to get out of a rut. In an attempt to salvage the season, Mike London had announced that the QB platoon was no more, and the results thus far into the game had been very positive. But Miami had just turned a short pass to Tommy Streeter into a 51-yard touchdown, and was threatening to move into the lead, with the score 20-14, UVA. On the subsequent drive, Virginia faced a critical third down deep in its territory, and the Miami crowd was sensing punt. So was the Miami defense; and not only that, they were sensing run. Miami loaded the box to stop what it thought would be a handoff.
But UVA had no intention of running. UVA's pre-snap motion telegraphed the defense to Rocco, and with a linebacker - Miami's James Gaines - trying to cover Perry Jones in the slot, the read was easy. Rocco threw the slant on a dart, and the target found bullseye - a beautiful throw. Gaines gambled on the knockdown and lost, and with no safety help over the top, Jones was free to sprint the final 75 yards to the end zone. UVA scored on the 2PC to earn a 28-14 lead, and every one of those points later came in handy....
#4
-- Laroy Reynolds on fourth and ballgame
Course, that touchdown was looking awfully fragile by this time. Miami sliced the deficit in half on the ensuing drive, and a three-and-out drive that started on our own eight-yard-line resulted in fantastic field position for the Canes. They started just the other side of the 50, and churned their way to the UVA 15, eating up time as they went. I'm pretty sure 90% of the UVA fanbase was dreading the very idea of overtime; you hate to go when it's you that's blown the lead.
The defense put Miami in its second fourth-down of the drive at the 15-yard-line, and with about two minutes to go, it was basically fourth-and-ballgame. With two minutes and change left in the game, it was obvious that if Miami failed to convert, even if they got the ball back they'd have precious little time and no timeouts to work with. If they did convert, they'd be just 13 yards or less from the end zone and able to work at whatever leisurely pace they desired.
Miami called a second straight handoff to Mike James, pulling their right guard and intending to power-run off-tackle to pick up the first. But Laroy Reynolds was either blitzing that very spot, or read the play quick enough to look like it. He blew past the tight end assigned to block him and smothered James in the backfield with a perfect tackle. Miami did indeed get another chance at the ball after UVA picked up only one first down, but Reynolds's play put all the pressure back on the Canes, and essentially preserved the win for UVA. It would be the first win of a season-making four-game win streak.
#3
-- FSU's Bert Reed doesn't quite haul it in
I'm not going to cheat and call a whole series of plays one for the purposes of this list. Otherwise the whole FSU drive could go here. In picking the catch that wasn't, the most disservice is done to Bill Schautz and Drequan Hoskey, whose picture-perfect, textbook defense was responsible for two pass breakups.
But in the wildest finish of the season, how can we pick any other play but the one we stared at for ten minutes? The circumstances of the play put everyone on opposite sides of sanity; UVA coaches were insisting that the Florida State receiver had made a perfectly good catch, and FSU wanted the catch by their own player overturned and ruled incomplete. The entire drive had been a Chinese fire drill from the start and generally an example of poor clock-management by the FSU sideline. Left with no timeouts, and on the edge of field goal range, the Seminole coaches called for a sideline pass. A quick strike that would see the receiver catch the ball, gain a couple of cheap yards, and his momentum carry him out of bounds, stopping the clock and allowing kicked Dustin Hopkins plenty of time to set up his game-winning field goal.
Bert Reed was the target, and unfortunately for the Noles, Reed wasn't close enough to the sideline. He dove for the ball with Laroy Reynolds providing quality coverage, and appeared - to the side judge anyway - to have successfully hauled it in. Inbounds. The clock ticked on, and expired before FSU could get their FG unit on. Except - an excruciatingly long review concluded Reed didn't have control of the ball, and called the play incomplete.
The later events - an obscure penalty call on Virginia and a wide-left kick anyway - only served to add to the absurdery that was the final minute-and-six of that game. But it's the overturned completion, with UVA's coaches herding their players back to the sideline and insisting it was a good catch by the other team, and the three thousand replays over four hours (in football-fan time) before any decision was made, is what really leaves the most indelible imprint.
#2
-- Cam Johnson eats Edward Wright-Baker for dinner
As results go, beating eventual 1-11 Indiana by three doesn't rank too well. But simply earning that win gave UVA several firsts - first road win for Mike London, first 2-0 start in however long - and had UVA not beaten the Hoosiers after starting the game so strongly, this, like Idaho also, could have been a psyche-killer.
UVA had had a 23-3 lead and then blown the whole thing and then some, finding itself down 31-23 in front of a suddenly delighted Hoosier crowd. But Mike Rocco had put together a drive that still ranks as one of the season's finest, and capped it with a 2PC to tie the game at 31 - still, 96 seconds remained, and Indiana had driven the ball well enough in the second half that the crowd was plenty confident that they could work their way to field-goal range and seal it up. Wright-Baker would eventually be replaced later in the season as IU's starting QB, but on this day he was a thorn, and in the second half had discovered how to make plays with his legs. This latter skill was killing the Hoos.
Cam Johnson, therefore, decided he wouldn't get the chance. Johnson roared past the left tackle and pounced on the unsuspecting Wright-Baker. The sack was one thing - it would've forced Indiana to punt and given UVA a shot at winning. But Johnson didn't only sack Wright-Baker, he ripped the ball free, and didn't even allow it the courtesy of bouncing on the ground. Johnson landed on the IU 14-yard-line, ball in hand, with the referee emphatically gesturing the change of possession. It was too fast for normal human eyes to register - first there was a beast in the backfield, and then it was UVA's ball. Just like that. Rarely does one single individual play directly lead to a win if it's not accompanied by the clock expiring, but this was the perfect example of such an individual effort.
#1
-- Chase Minnifield hauls ass
This one goes here for sheer hustle. Kids, this is why you hustle. It matters. It really does.
The setup: Bert Reed has just caught a pass from E.J. Manuel that traveled 15-ish yards in the air, and he's busting his butt to travel the rest of them between catch and end zone. He's beaten his coverage, broken one tackle, and nobody is near him. End zone is in sight, and Florida State will take a 17-7 lead. That's not much, but in the context of a defensive struggle, yes it is. It's like when a pitchers' duel is 1-0 and then suddenly it's 3-0. It feels like game over.
Chase Minnifield is a hair faster than Bert Reed, though, and he was having none of this. Minnifield sprinted for dear life after Reed, and caught up to him I mean literally just in time. Any fraction of a second later and it wouldn't have mattered, but Minnifield was able to trip Reed up, and he came to earth at the 1-yard line.
Three plays later, FSU was two yards further back and kicking a field goal to stretch the lead to 13-7. At the time, it felt like small consolation. But the final score of the biggest win of London's UVA career was, as you'll recall, 14-13. Turns out Chase Minnifield's hustle was the difference between winning and losing after all.
Monday, November 14, 2011
weekend review
There's a lot to like about this weekend. Getting off the schneid against Duke is huge, of course. Moving up on the bowl ladder and staying in position to shock the world with a miracle run to the division title - also huge. A terrific defensive effort to get the hoops season started - very nice. Just one of those all-around decent weekends.
Let's start with football, where UVA is 7-3. You knew that, but I just wanted to type it so I could look at it. For any definition of "expectations," they have been exceeded. The rest of the season is about answering the question "by how much?" I think we should take a pinky pledge right now: "I will of course be rooting like hell for UVA in the next two games, but I promise not to be too disappointed if they lose them both." We did, after all, just beat two of the conference's three worst teams. (Not a given, just ask NC State about how that Boston College game went, but regardless, it's easy to get carried away.)
And I wouldn't call this a convincing win, not 100%. The defense gave up some big plays; I had to ask myself during the game why Corey Mosley kept biting on play-action when it had been pretty well proven that Duke's running game was less productive than a community college dropout. Chase Minnifield appeared to have been burned on a deep throw to Conner Vernon, but his gesture to Mosley shortly after making the tackle clearly indicated he was expecting help over the top and didn't get it. Big plays of 40 or more yards (and one bullshit-ass pass interference call) preceded every one of Duke's three touchdowns - or was the touchdown in the case of the first score.
Fortunately, UVA can make big plays too, and Minnifield's pick-six was crucial in that department. That was brought on by Cam Johnson's physical abuse of Duke's left tackle; Johnson was thisclose to hauling Sean Renfree down for a sack. Johnson was killing that left tackle - Takoby Cofield, I think - all day. Renfree hurried the throw, threw it behind his receiver, and I screamed TOUCHDOWN before the ball even settled into Minnifield's hands.
Making the win even nicer was the fact that, apparently, Duke has decided to act out as the conference, uh, Dukeheads. To put it in a SFW fashion. I dunno, maybe it's just one player - here are some reports from fans and media types regarding the actions of one of Duke's guys:
-- "He is the classic punk modern day football player ....After the terrible pass interference call on the goal line, he eggs on the crowd for a couple of minutes. He catches one pass on a WR screen and falls
down in the fetal position so he doesn't get hit. Then tops it off by spearing Chase on the interception that didn't count."
-- "It was a Duke player that ran through our band, got in the faces of our players before the game until the refs had to chase him back to his sideline. It was the Duke wide receivers mouthing off that lit Chase Minnifield up."
-- "The sophomore wideout started jawing at UVa players from the moment he stepped on the field. He made it a point to taunt each Virginia player as they ran out of the tunnel with the exception of Cam Johnson. He side-stepped the senior defensive end before resuming his yapping …"
So many apologies, because I did a no-no and ganked that last one from behind a paywall, but it ought to be seen by as wide an audience as possible because it really rounds out the picture here. All of this is the same MFer - and it happens to be the same MFer who used to be committed to UVA, and, thank the football gods, decommitted shortly before Signing Day 2009: Tyree Watkins. As that story goes, Watkins made a lot of enemies on his official visit to UVA (which he took in January, after committing), mostly by - you guessed it - trash talking and generally being a punk. Doing that on an official visit to future teammates is baffling. It wouldn't surprise me if the coaches de-offered him after that visit.
So you can see maybe why Chase Minnifield took a swing at Duke's quarterback. That bogus PI plus the yammering from the Dookies - and I'm sure Watkins wasn't the only loose cannon - tends to set one off. The only complaint I have is that if our senior captain is going to get involved in the chippiness, at least let's not do it in a way that gets you suspended if the refs see you. Fortunately, it apparently was Three Blind Refs week all across the ACC, so the only penalties and ejections were phantom ones.
A couple other names have to be mentioned before we mosey on to the other stuff:
- Max Milien, for being the team's leading receiver. Big day for Milien, and he looked good.
- Perry Jones - they call him Superman, and one day I will have to photoshop a cape onto a picture of him taking that flying leap over the pile for his touchdown. Jones did a lot of things that - well, I don't want to say they "don't show up on the stat sheet," because they involve adding yardage to the total. But the stat sheet hides the fact that Jones was constantly, constantly turning negative yards into positive, and turning small positive gains into bigger ones. Then we toss him out there for a punt return and he takes it back 21 yards. The stat sheet shows a kind of run-of-the-mill day, nothing special, but Jones's work in keeping drives going just by getting three yards when it looked like minus-two, that was huge.
- Laroy Reynolds, for no other reason than the MANTACKLE he made for a TFL. I don't even remember when, but I remember the hit.
- And finally, Matt Conrath for his third FG block of the season. Special teams, man, I don't know what to make of them. They are really bad, except for when they're really good. Completely miserable blocking on the opening kickoff, a kickoff going out of bounds, Dominique Terrell's bonehead decision to get near a punt - special teams wasn't too cool, man, and it's had its ugly-ass moments all year. But then Conrath busts through to get a paw on a kick to prevent Duke from taking advantage of Terrell's blunder and it's all good again. And that had another effect on the game, or it should have: No doubt with that block in mind, Duke later went for it on fourth down inside the 10 and was stuffed by Mosley's pass breakup. Which the refs then decided to cock up with the first bogus PI call.
Oh, and I started to write the next section and then I remembered this one, too: Conrath getting to Renfree on a handoff. That is the single most awesome thing a defensive lineman can do, period, full stop, exclamation point but no question mark, end of discussion. That is hilariously awesome when that happens. It is bad-ass. Conrath killed that play and then he killed the field goal. Duke was forced to double-team him or he would have torn someone's ribcage out, which is part of the reason Cam Johnson was allowed to work Cofield over one-on-one.
Let's see how I did on the predictions. Spoiler: not too well.
- Perry Jones has 20+ carries, 100+ rushing yards, and 4+ receptions.
Jones had the all-around do-everything day I expected, but he still fell just shy of each of these marks; 15 carries, 74 yards, and 3 catches.
- UVA's running attack will have another 200+ yard game.
Only 166 minus the kneeldown, but I feel gypped. Lazor inexplicably went to the pass on several occasions when Duke had shown absolutely no inclination to stop the run. Especially when it would've been advantageous to put a little bit of clock behind us. Take four Rocco passes, turn them into runs, and we would've gotten 16 yards closer to that goal of 200 and added more plays to the total number that we ran besides. I believe this. Don't get me wrong: Lazor is a godsend and I do not look forward to the day when he gets an opportunity elsewhere. I think, however, that he has a pattern of sometimes passing too much and abandoning the run too soon. This is a damn good rushing team. If we find an opponent that can't stop us, we ought to be handing off 50, 60 times a game til they can.
- Mike Rocco throws a Verica-style interception that makes you wonder what the hell he was looking at.
Nope.
- Duke has less than 100 yards rushing.
Oh hell yes, and in a big way. Duke ran for 34 yards. OK, 47 if you take out what Renfree was credited for. (But not the -3 "team" rush, because that was Conrath's handoff destruction.) Duke's inability to run the ball at all, and their insistence on trying anyway, was the largest slice of the "why we won this game" pie chart.
- Donovan Varner hauls in at least six catches.
That he did as well, with seven. I expected this because Minnifield was assigned Conner Vernon; it helped that Vernon left the game for a spell, and also that Varner was covered by a linebacker on his 64-yard touchdown sprint. Not good times.
- Sean Renfree throws the ball at least 30 times, but for less than 250 yards.
Big plays got him to 303, which sucks for my prognostication because I was even allowing for a big play or two in that number. Got to cut down on those big plays; however, it should be noted that Renfree had 145 yards on 35 "other" passes, so the pass defense wasn't the near-disaster that the stat sheet claims.
The spread that I was picking against gave Duke 10 points, which turned out to be the final margin, so my ATS record goes to 5-4-1 on the season with a push this week. But I'm 6-4 overall, and 31-for-76 on the specific predictions. I guess that's OK - it's a little shy of 41% - but I'm hoping to finish stronger, of course.
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The basketball, that was nice too. It's all about the defense. Defense defense defense. The UVA players were almost always perfectly positioned. One thing that was nice as well: TV deals being what they are, usually the only UVA games I get to watch are against ACC opponents, or the top nonconference games - ACC/B1G Challenge, tournaments, what have you. So the competition is usually at least equal, and often better. It was a nice change for once to watch UVA in a game where they were clearly and obviously athletically superior.
That helped, for sure. All the usual caveats apply about the level of competition. SC State is one of the worst teams in one of the worst conferences; Winthrop, which is Tuesday's opponent, isn't much better. Still, no matter how bad your opponent, you're doing something right when you're going on a 24-0 run that lasts seven minutes. The Hoos didn't block a lot of shots and didn't get an absurd number of steals, but they were in front of every SC State shot all day long. Any that went in were definitely earned.
Mike Scott was every bit the rebound hawk we expect, snagging 15 in way fewer minutes than he's gonna get in most games. Joe Harris and KT Harrell provided the scoring. I thought James Johnson looked pretty good; not perfect, gave up the baseline once or twice which is the first no-no in Bennett's defense, but good footwork in space and in getting out to the passing lanes and then back inside the pack line. Assane Sene actually looks smooth with the ball in his hand, instead of the glass-handed ostrich he was as a sophomore.
It appears Paul Jesperson will redshirt, which was my guess, and it's disappointing that we didn't get to see any of Darion Atkins, who's been shut down for three games. This is not the time you want to be suspended. Bet he'd have played a solid 15 minutes. Going four deep at the bigs is fine, for a while, but not if someone gets hurt or in foul trouble or something. More time for JJ to prove himself, I guess, at least in the next two games, one of which is the most important of the season.
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Our Senior Seasons feature is beginning to wind down, as a few of UVA's recruits have finished their seasons, and most others had their first round of the playoffs this week. But this one was still a busy one, so here goes:
Buford 49, Temple 13: C.J. Moore had a scoop-and-score to get the scoring started in a first-round romp for Buford. They play Jefferson County next week in the round of 16.
East Orange 21, Franklin 7: Kye Morgan had 11 carries for 50 yards in the loss; he had a 40-yarder but was otherwise pretty much bottled up. Franklin's playoff run ends, although two weeks from now they have one more game which I guess is a scrimmage; it doesn't count for much.
Bayside 27, Woodside 21: Anthony Cooper caught two touchdowns in a mild upset.
Hampton 16, Green Run 12: Mark Hall had 7 catches for 138 yards, and Green Run came really close but couldn't quite pull off the big upset of Jamall Brown and Hampton.
Salem 62, Ocean Lakes 28: Eli Harold ran for two touchdowns and threw for another before leaving with an ankle injury** and Ocean Lakes got blown the #%&$ out afterwards.
Norfolk Christian 45, Isle of Wight 0: Wil Wahee and Mario Nixon each had a touchdown. NCS goes for a state title next weekend.
Highland Springs 12, Varina 7: Maurice Canady ran for 131 yards and a touchdown, but was only 5-for-17 passing in a loss to end the regular season.
Gonzaga 28, DeMatha 27 (Michael Moore)
Central Bucks South 52, Plymouth-Whitemarsh 24 (Matt Johns)
Malvern Prep 23, Chestnut Hill Academy 0 (Michael Mooney; Malvern is 9-1.)
Houston Stratford 20, Willis 14 (Kelvin Rainey)
Cushing Academy 31, Worcester Academy 14 (Canaan Severin; WA is 4-4.)
Hermitage 38, Patrick Henry 14 (Andre Miles-Redmond; Hermitage is 10-0.)
Grassfield 17, Landstown 6 (Kyle Dockins)
That ends the seasons for Kye Morgan, Michael Moore, Mark Hall, Eli Harold, and Kyle Dockins. Michael Mooney and Malvern clinched the Inter-Academic League championship; they have a game two weeks from now and don't have playoffs. I think, but am not sure, that Canaan Severin's season also is over without playoffs.
Advancing this week were C.J. Moore, Matt Johns, Kelvin Rainey, Jamall Brown, Anthony Cooper, and the Norfolk Christian quartet. Cooper and Bayside will play Salem, which just decisively knocked out the one team to beat them all season. Hampton faces Norcom. Additionally, Demeitre Brim, Max Valles, Andre Miles-Redmond, and Maurice Canady and Tyrell Chavis start their playoff runs next week. Varina visits L.C. Bird, and Hermitage hosts Thomas Dale. Valles and St. Joseph play one game for their state title next week; Norfolk Christian is also going for their state title too.
**NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
I couldn't find out anything else about that. Hopefully that's not serious, but Harold's season would be over regardless and he's got all year to get that straightened out anyway.
Let's start with football, where UVA is 7-3. You knew that, but I just wanted to type it so I could look at it. For any definition of "expectations," they have been exceeded. The rest of the season is about answering the question "by how much?" I think we should take a pinky pledge right now: "I will of course be rooting like hell for UVA in the next two games, but I promise not to be too disappointed if they lose them both." We did, after all, just beat two of the conference's three worst teams. (Not a given, just ask NC State about how that Boston College game went, but regardless, it's easy to get carried away.)
And I wouldn't call this a convincing win, not 100%. The defense gave up some big plays; I had to ask myself during the game why Corey Mosley kept biting on play-action when it had been pretty well proven that Duke's running game was less productive than a community college dropout. Chase Minnifield appeared to have been burned on a deep throw to Conner Vernon, but his gesture to Mosley shortly after making the tackle clearly indicated he was expecting help over the top and didn't get it. Big plays of 40 or more yards (and one bullshit-ass pass interference call) preceded every one of Duke's three touchdowns - or was the touchdown in the case of the first score.
Fortunately, UVA can make big plays too, and Minnifield's pick-six was crucial in that department. That was brought on by Cam Johnson's physical abuse of Duke's left tackle; Johnson was thisclose to hauling Sean Renfree down for a sack. Johnson was killing that left tackle - Takoby Cofield, I think - all day. Renfree hurried the throw, threw it behind his receiver, and I screamed TOUCHDOWN before the ball even settled into Minnifield's hands.
Making the win even nicer was the fact that, apparently, Duke has decided to act out as the conference, uh, Dukeheads. To put it in a SFW fashion. I dunno, maybe it's just one player - here are some reports from fans and media types regarding the actions of one of Duke's guys:
-- "He is the classic punk modern day football player ....After the terrible pass interference call on the goal line, he eggs on the crowd for a couple of minutes. He catches one pass on a WR screen and falls
down in the fetal position so he doesn't get hit. Then tops it off by spearing Chase on the interception that didn't count."
-- "It was a Duke player that ran through our band, got in the faces of our players before the game until the refs had to chase him back to his sideline. It was the Duke wide receivers mouthing off that lit Chase Minnifield up."
-- "The sophomore wideout started jawing at UVa players from the moment he stepped on the field. He made it a point to taunt each Virginia player as they ran out of the tunnel with the exception of Cam Johnson. He side-stepped the senior defensive end before resuming his yapping …"
So many apologies, because I did a no-no and ganked that last one from behind a paywall, but it ought to be seen by as wide an audience as possible because it really rounds out the picture here. All of this is the same MFer - and it happens to be the same MFer who used to be committed to UVA, and, thank the football gods, decommitted shortly before Signing Day 2009: Tyree Watkins. As that story goes, Watkins made a lot of enemies on his official visit to UVA (which he took in January, after committing), mostly by - you guessed it - trash talking and generally being a punk. Doing that on an official visit to future teammates is baffling. It wouldn't surprise me if the coaches de-offered him after that visit.
So you can see maybe why Chase Minnifield took a swing at Duke's quarterback. That bogus PI plus the yammering from the Dookies - and I'm sure Watkins wasn't the only loose cannon - tends to set one off. The only complaint I have is that if our senior captain is going to get involved in the chippiness, at least let's not do it in a way that gets you suspended if the refs see you. Fortunately, it apparently was Three Blind Refs week all across the ACC, so the only penalties and ejections were phantom ones.
A couple other names have to be mentioned before we mosey on to the other stuff:
- Max Milien, for being the team's leading receiver. Big day for Milien, and he looked good.
- Perry Jones - they call him Superman, and one day I will have to photoshop a cape onto a picture of him taking that flying leap over the pile for his touchdown. Jones did a lot of things that - well, I don't want to say they "don't show up on the stat sheet," because they involve adding yardage to the total. But the stat sheet hides the fact that Jones was constantly, constantly turning negative yards into positive, and turning small positive gains into bigger ones. Then we toss him out there for a punt return and he takes it back 21 yards. The stat sheet shows a kind of run-of-the-mill day, nothing special, but Jones's work in keeping drives going just by getting three yards when it looked like minus-two, that was huge.
- Laroy Reynolds, for no other reason than the MANTACKLE he made for a TFL. I don't even remember when, but I remember the hit.
- And finally, Matt Conrath for his third FG block of the season. Special teams, man, I don't know what to make of them. They are really bad, except for when they're really good. Completely miserable blocking on the opening kickoff, a kickoff going out of bounds, Dominique Terrell's bonehead decision to get near a punt - special teams wasn't too cool, man, and it's had its ugly-ass moments all year. But then Conrath busts through to get a paw on a kick to prevent Duke from taking advantage of Terrell's blunder and it's all good again. And that had another effect on the game, or it should have: No doubt with that block in mind, Duke later went for it on fourth down inside the 10 and was stuffed by Mosley's pass breakup. Which the refs then decided to cock up with the first bogus PI call.
Oh, and I started to write the next section and then I remembered this one, too: Conrath getting to Renfree on a handoff. That is the single most awesome thing a defensive lineman can do, period, full stop, exclamation point but no question mark, end of discussion. That is hilariously awesome when that happens. It is bad-ass. Conrath killed that play and then he killed the field goal. Duke was forced to double-team him or he would have torn someone's ribcage out, which is part of the reason Cam Johnson was allowed to work Cofield over one-on-one.
Let's see how I did on the predictions. Spoiler: not too well.
- Perry Jones has 20+ carries, 100+ rushing yards, and 4+ receptions.
Jones had the all-around do-everything day I expected, but he still fell just shy of each of these marks; 15 carries, 74 yards, and 3 catches.
- UVA's running attack will have another 200+ yard game.
Only 166 minus the kneeldown, but I feel gypped. Lazor inexplicably went to the pass on several occasions when Duke had shown absolutely no inclination to stop the run. Especially when it would've been advantageous to put a little bit of clock behind us. Take four Rocco passes, turn them into runs, and we would've gotten 16 yards closer to that goal of 200 and added more plays to the total number that we ran besides. I believe this. Don't get me wrong: Lazor is a godsend and I do not look forward to the day when he gets an opportunity elsewhere. I think, however, that he has a pattern of sometimes passing too much and abandoning the run too soon. This is a damn good rushing team. If we find an opponent that can't stop us, we ought to be handing off 50, 60 times a game til they can.
- Mike Rocco throws a Verica-style interception that makes you wonder what the hell he was looking at.
Nope.
- Duke has less than 100 yards rushing.
Oh hell yes, and in a big way. Duke ran for 34 yards. OK, 47 if you take out what Renfree was credited for. (But not the -3 "team" rush, because that was Conrath's handoff destruction.) Duke's inability to run the ball at all, and their insistence on trying anyway, was the largest slice of the "why we won this game" pie chart.
- Donovan Varner hauls in at least six catches.
That he did as well, with seven. I expected this because Minnifield was assigned Conner Vernon; it helped that Vernon left the game for a spell, and also that Varner was covered by a linebacker on his 64-yard touchdown sprint. Not good times.
- Sean Renfree throws the ball at least 30 times, but for less than 250 yards.
Big plays got him to 303, which sucks for my prognostication because I was even allowing for a big play or two in that number. Got to cut down on those big plays; however, it should be noted that Renfree had 145 yards on 35 "other" passes, so the pass defense wasn't the near-disaster that the stat sheet claims.
The spread that I was picking against gave Duke 10 points, which turned out to be the final margin, so my ATS record goes to 5-4-1 on the season with a push this week. But I'm 6-4 overall, and 31-for-76 on the specific predictions. I guess that's OK - it's a little shy of 41% - but I'm hoping to finish stronger, of course.
*******************************************
The basketball, that was nice too. It's all about the defense. Defense defense defense. The UVA players were almost always perfectly positioned. One thing that was nice as well: TV deals being what they are, usually the only UVA games I get to watch are against ACC opponents, or the top nonconference games - ACC/B1G Challenge, tournaments, what have you. So the competition is usually at least equal, and often better. It was a nice change for once to watch UVA in a game where they were clearly and obviously athletically superior.
That helped, for sure. All the usual caveats apply about the level of competition. SC State is one of the worst teams in one of the worst conferences; Winthrop, which is Tuesday's opponent, isn't much better. Still, no matter how bad your opponent, you're doing something right when you're going on a 24-0 run that lasts seven minutes. The Hoos didn't block a lot of shots and didn't get an absurd number of steals, but they were in front of every SC State shot all day long. Any that went in were definitely earned.
Mike Scott was every bit the rebound hawk we expect, snagging 15 in way fewer minutes than he's gonna get in most games. Joe Harris and KT Harrell provided the scoring. I thought James Johnson looked pretty good; not perfect, gave up the baseline once or twice which is the first no-no in Bennett's defense, but good footwork in space and in getting out to the passing lanes and then back inside the pack line. Assane Sene actually looks smooth with the ball in his hand, instead of the glass-handed ostrich he was as a sophomore.
It appears Paul Jesperson will redshirt, which was my guess, and it's disappointing that we didn't get to see any of Darion Atkins, who's been shut down for three games. This is not the time you want to be suspended. Bet he'd have played a solid 15 minutes. Going four deep at the bigs is fine, for a while, but not if someone gets hurt or in foul trouble or something. More time for JJ to prove himself, I guess, at least in the next two games, one of which is the most important of the season.
*******************************************
Our Senior Seasons feature is beginning to wind down, as a few of UVA's recruits have finished their seasons, and most others had their first round of the playoffs this week. But this one was still a busy one, so here goes:
Buford 49, Temple 13: C.J. Moore had a scoop-and-score to get the scoring started in a first-round romp for Buford. They play Jefferson County next week in the round of 16.
East Orange 21, Franklin 7: Kye Morgan had 11 carries for 50 yards in the loss; he had a 40-yarder but was otherwise pretty much bottled up. Franklin's playoff run ends, although two weeks from now they have one more game which I guess is a scrimmage; it doesn't count for much.
Bayside 27, Woodside 21: Anthony Cooper caught two touchdowns in a mild upset.
Hampton 16, Green Run 12: Mark Hall had 7 catches for 138 yards, and Green Run came really close but couldn't quite pull off the big upset of Jamall Brown and Hampton.
Salem 62, Ocean Lakes 28: Eli Harold ran for two touchdowns and threw for another before leaving with an ankle injury** and Ocean Lakes got blown the #%&$ out afterwards.
Norfolk Christian 45, Isle of Wight 0: Wil Wahee and Mario Nixon each had a touchdown. NCS goes for a state title next weekend.
Highland Springs 12, Varina 7: Maurice Canady ran for 131 yards and a touchdown, but was only 5-for-17 passing in a loss to end the regular season.
Gonzaga 28, DeMatha 27 (Michael Moore)
Central Bucks South 52, Plymouth-Whitemarsh 24 (Matt Johns)
Malvern Prep 23, Chestnut Hill Academy 0 (Michael Mooney; Malvern is 9-1.)
Houston Stratford 20, Willis 14 (Kelvin Rainey)
Cushing Academy 31, Worcester Academy 14 (Canaan Severin; WA is 4-4.)
Hermitage 38, Patrick Henry 14 (Andre Miles-Redmond; Hermitage is 10-0.)
Grassfield 17, Landstown 6 (Kyle Dockins)
That ends the seasons for Kye Morgan, Michael Moore, Mark Hall, Eli Harold, and Kyle Dockins. Michael Mooney and Malvern clinched the Inter-Academic League championship; they have a game two weeks from now and don't have playoffs. I think, but am not sure, that Canaan Severin's season also is over without playoffs.
Advancing this week were C.J. Moore, Matt Johns, Kelvin Rainey, Jamall Brown, Anthony Cooper, and the Norfolk Christian quartet. Cooper and Bayside will play Salem, which just decisively knocked out the one team to beat them all season. Hampton faces Norcom. Additionally, Demeitre Brim, Max Valles, Andre Miles-Redmond, and Maurice Canady and Tyrell Chavis start their playoff runs next week. Varina visits L.C. Bird, and Hermitage hosts Thomas Dale. Valles and St. Joseph play one game for their state title next week; Norfolk Christian is also going for their state title too.
**NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
I couldn't find out anything else about that. Hopefully that's not serious, but Harold's season would be over regardless and he's got all year to get that straightened out anyway.
Friday, November 4, 2011
game preview: Maryland
TV: RSN, ESPN3
History against the Terps: 31-42-2
Last matchup: Md. 42, UVA 23; 11/13/10; Charlottesville
Last weekend: UVA 28, Miami 21; BC 28, Md. 17
Line: UVA by 2.5
Opposing blogs: Turtledroppings, Testudo Times
Injury report:
Virginia:
OUT
S Pablo Alvarez, LS Charlie Richards, LB Daquan Romero, WR E.J. Scott, WR Bobby Smith, DL Tyler Smith, WR Matt Snyder, LS Michael Terrell, FS Joseph Williams
QUESTIONABLE
DE Cam Johnson
PROBABLE
OT Sean Cascarano, DT Matt Conrath, RB Kevin Parks
Maryland:
I can't find one. But starting DE David Mackall will miss the game - and the rest of the season - as he's on indefinite suspension.
The fact that it's Maryland week is story enough, but the storylines attached to this week's game are long and colorful, to be sure. UVA hasn't won in November since that Orange Bowl thrashing of Miami some four years ago. That was also the last season we went to a bowl. Both those streaks can be broken this weekend.
You know the Terps are taking this seriously: of the four uniform combos displayed as possibilities for this game on the Maryland website, the chosen one was....none of them. Their captains voted to harken back to when Maryland was still wearing Under Armour's protect-this-house wet dream of the Friedgen era and not the full-blown UA orgy of the Edsall days. Yellow-over-yellow was an option, and we thank the Terps for not subjecting us to that; they will wear simple red-over-white. A more classic look for their Senior Day instead of an explosion of Warrior Bullshit. They want this. UVA has to prove it does, too; it's a second chance of sorts to carry on the momentum from a big win after the first chance went badly awry.
-- UVA run offense vs. Maryland run defense
Top backs:
Perry Jones: 125 carries, 643 yards, 5.1 avg.
Kevin Parks: 90 carries, 471 yards, 5.2 avg.
UVA offense:
186.13 yards/game, 4.6 yards/attempt
40th of 120 (national), 4th of 12 (ACC)
Maryland defense:
234.75 yards/game, 4.89 yards/attempt
97th of 120 (national), 12th of 12 (ACC)
This section might make the other three completely moot. For one thing, Bill Lazor has shown a willingness, if the opposing defense is allowing it, to mercilessly hammer the run. Maryland's defense has been very allowing. The list of teams that has victimized them is long: BC had 372 rushing yards, Rolandan Finch getting 243 of them. FSU's top two backs gashed them for 9.3 a carry. Clemson had 306 yards, Andre Ellington had 212. Temple, 285 yards. Even Towson's running back averaged 6.3 yards a carry. Maryland is allowing more rushing yards per game than all but two teams in the country: Kansas and New Mexico.
There's no doubt that they miss Kenny Tate. They will also miss David Mackall, who had six TFL and was clearly the better end on the line. The bright spot: DT Joe "The Situation" Vellano, who is probably the one Maryland D-lineman who could play on most other ACC teams. Vellano has the ability to be disruptive and can stop you from going up the middle; UVA will almost certainly work the edges and double-team the shit out of him when they want to go up the middle. Mackall's listed backup is Marcus Whitfield, who's made exactly four tackles all year. Whether it's Whitfield or someone else, Lazor will probably test him early and often.
It will help Maryland that they get Demetrius Hartsfield back; Hartsfield plays middle linebacker and has been out for a month. That'll allow Maryland to shuffle their linebackers a little and get a better mix; they've been forced to dip into the freshman ranks and it's been ugly. They're back up to two of their three expected starters.
You've got to expect that once again, the run game will be emphasized. And I think it'll be successful. At least 40 carries by our running backs, for sure, with Parks and Jones combining for at least 28-30....in other words, a playcalling profile similar to the successful ones against GT and Miami. And both will exceed their season averages. I would like to say 6 yards a carry for each, but the field at Byrd Stadium sucks ass and I think that might slow them down just a bit. Maryland hands out 200-yard rushing games like Halloween candy, and UVA is the next recipient.
-- UVA pass offense vs. Maryland pass defense
Quarterback:
Mike Rocco: 120/202, 59.4%; 1,412 yards, 6 TD, 8 INT; 6.99 yds/attempt
Top receivers:
Kris Burd: 37 rec., 480 yards, 0 TD
Perry Jones: 28 rec., 314 yards, 2 TD
UVA offense:
228.9 yards/game, 6.6 yards/attempt
83rd of 120 (national), 9th of 12 (ACC)
Maryland defense:
202.5 yards/game, 7.6 yards/attempt
88th of 120 (national), 10th of 12 (ACC)
It's not looking much better here for the Maryland defense. As a converted safety, Kenny Tate was an instrumental piece of the pass defense, and none of the linebackers they have are quite the pass defenders Tate was.
The cornerbacks are at least respectable here. Cameron Chism and Dexter McDougle have three picks each. Eric Franklin is a decent safety on one side, but more in run support than pass defense. But the injury bug hit the defensive backfield too; with Matt Robinson out for the year, Maryland has the scariest thing a defense can have: a freshman starting at safety. Lazor should look for ways to victimize said freshman Titus Till, who's been playing only about as well as you'd expect a freshman to.
Rocco probably won't get many chances to air it out, of course. Probably no more than 25 pass attempts, again. There's just no reason to pass very much, unless we fall behind by a lot. I think he'll flourish again, though, without the hated quarterback rotation, and nudge that average over 7 yards for the first time this season. (He was ever so close after the Idaho game.) Say roughly 170 yards on 20-ish attempts. Basically, the passing attack will be no more than a complement to the running attack, just as we've seen in other successful games this year. Maryland's best hope is that we try to deal with their cornerbacks on the edges, but an underneath attack coupled with a couple deep shots over the middle to work their safeties is the prescription.
-- Maryland run offense vs. UVA run defense
Top backs:
Davin Meggett: 127 carries, 625 yards, 4.9 avg.
Justus Pickett: 55 carries, 236 yards, 4.3 avg.
Maryland offense:
171.88 yards/game, 4.73 yards/attempt
37th of 120 (national), 3rd of 12 (ACC)
UVA defense:
131.63 yards/game, 3.67 yards/attempt
41st of 120 (national), 4th of 12 (ACC)
This is the one thing Maryland's done reasonably well, thanks not only to senior workhorse Davin Meggett, but also to the discovery of C.J. Brown. Brown, at quarterback, isn't much of a passer, but he's been proven to have a set of wheels. When he's in the game, UVA will have to be in contain mode and make sure he doesn't break loose. We're not talking about Tim Tebow here, but Brown is still dangerous. It was his 77-yard touchdown run that sparked the comeback that put a scare into Georgia Tech.
Meggett, on the other hand, isn't very likely to break one open, but, like the backs UVA has faced in the past two games, he'll get his yardage. He's stocky like Kevin Parks, and Maryland uses scatback Justus Pickett as a change of pace.
The previous two games should give us a pretty good preview of this one. Like Lamar Miller and James Washington, Meggett will get his yards, but he'll have to really grind them out. Maryland's line is youngish, and honestly they've done a fairly admirable job of patching a line together given the assortment of injuries and self-inflicted attrition they had in the offseason. Still, UVA has a veteran D-line that I expect will be plenty disruptive. The wrinkle will be Brown; in terms of average he is usally Maryland's leading rusher, and he'll probably do so again. The key to winning this battle is making sure he goes nowhere; Maryland has put a scare into a couple teams, and it's always when Brown starts running loose. (The exception was the West Virginia game, when the Terps had yet to put him on the field.) On the other hand, Florida State held him to zero yards on ten carries. If UVA can bottle up Brown, they should win handily; if not, well, they still should win, but might not, and either way we're all gonna be holding our breath.
-- Maryland pass offense vs. UVA pass defense
Quarterback:
Danny O'Brien: 120/209, 57.4%; 1,275 yards, 6 TD, 7 INT; 6.1 yds/attempt
Top receivers:
Kevin Dorsey: 29 rec., 369 yards, 2 TD
Matt Furstenburg: 24 rec., 298 yards, 2 TD
Maryland offense:
210.5 yards/game, 5.7 yards/attempt
113th of 120 (national), 12th of 12 (ACC)
UVA defense:
197.4 yards/game, 6.4 yards/attempt
26th of 120 (national), 3rd of 12 (ACC)
It's eerie how similar Danny O'Brien's stats are to Rocco's. For that matter, C.J. Brown's passing stats to David Watford's, too. Neither team has what you'd call an intimidating passing attack. Brown's just not effective, and O'Brien is having the sophomore slump el grande, no doubt partly due to having to learn a new system after just dealing with Ralph Friedgen's.
One thing Maryland does do well in this department is spread the ball around; their top four pass-catchers are all within six catches of one another. Furstenburg is the tight end, and he's an integral part of the passing attack; in fact, I'd venture to say we haven't yet played a team that's used the tight end as extensively as Maryland. So Laroy Reynolds will have to be on his game.
However. Their wide receivers are all basically the same guy, and none of them present major matchup issues. No Tommy Streeter to go out there and Calvin Johnson his way to multiple touchdowns. And then there's O'Brien. He was excellent against Miami, pretty good against West Virginia except for throwing a bunch of picks, and has since regressed. You could honestly make the case that the QB rotation is hurting Maryland the way it hurt us.
So I think the pass defense will rebound from a not-so-great day against Miami. Other than Austin Davis picking us apart, and Jacory Harris just flangin' it up to Streeter, things have generally gone very well when the opponent tries to attack through the air. And the common denominator there - senior quarterbacks - doesn't exist here. The veteran secondary will make sure Maryland can't get it done through the air; I don't think their quarterbacks will top 150 passing yards combined, and will be held to a less than 50% completion percentage. Furstenburg will lead in all receiving categories as their receivers have a quiet day.
-- Outlook
This blog is in its fourth year of existence. I've had the fortune to write about a lacrosse national title, a soccer national title, two College World Series trips, even a rowing national title, ACC championships in almost everything, not to mention two major coaching changes. I have yet to cover a bowl game - or even a November victory. That changes Saturday. I know the fanbase is jittery about this one. Who wouldn't be? Nobody ever wants to lose to Maryland, for one, and for another, I think most of us set that bowl game as the goal we wanted to see, and here we are with a chance to make it happen. "Maryland doesn't lose to teams like Virginia," or so it's said by their coaches. But rebuilding teams that want to stay on the rebuilding path don't - can't - lose games like this. It's time to take another step to the promised land.
-- Prediction summary
- UVA running backs total at least 40 carries.
- Jones and Parks total at least 30.
- All three backs exceed their season averages.
- UVA piles up at least 200 yards on the ground.
- Mike Rocco's season passing average after this game is over 7 yards per attempt.
- Rocco has about 20 pass attempts for about 170 yards.
- In terms of average, C.J. Brown is Maryland's leading rusher.
- If Brown is held to less than 20 yards rushing, UVA wins by at least two touchdowns.
- Tight end Matt Furstenburg leads Maryland in both receptions and yardage.
- Neither Maryland quarterback completes more than 50% of their passes.
- Maryland passes for less than 150 yards.
- Official attendance is less than 40,000.
- Final score: UVA 27, Maryland 10.
-- Rest of the ACC:
Florida State 38, Boston College 7 - Thursday (Like you're surprised.)
North Carolina @ NC State, 12:30 (It's apparently rivalry week.)
Duke @ Miami, 3:00 (Don't be completely surprised if Duke wins this.)
Wake Forest vs. Notre Dame, 8:00 (ND plays ACC teams this week and the next two. Preview of the coming years?)
Edit: I forgot to mention that this game will again feature Twitterrhea, in which I mini-blog the random crap that pops into my head as the game goes on. Follow @MaizeNBlueWahoo to get Twitted at during the game.
Sunday, September 11, 2011
the bloomington report
Alright! That was fun, wasn't it? Well, first it was fun, then it was not fun at all, then it was fun again. Now we have to try and make some sense of it, which is what I'm paid (nothing) to do.
Actually, the fun factor was off the charts. If you've never been to IU you probably expect a pretty docile tailgate scene and not a whole of people in the stadium. I hadn't, so I did. Especially for an objectively crappy nonconference opponent. Maybe it was because it was the first home game of the year for the Hoosiers, but the attendance was perfectly good (even if the stadium wasn't quite full) and Indiana has a really nice tailgating zone in the trees and grass very near the stadium. Hell, the Hoosiers even came out in special new white helmets. I'm always kind of excited when the other team thinks we're a good enough occasion to break out a crowd-pleaser like that. (I, as well as my IU-alum cousin and some of those around me, liked the white helmets, and all for the same reason: it makes them not look like Oklahoma.) Other than the passive-aggressive note left on my windshield that said (among other things) "go Hookees" the IU crowd is a friendly and enjoyable bunch. (I bet if you dissed their basketball you'd find their nasty side, though.) So I highly recommend a Bloomington road trip for those with spare time.
I wasn't having very much fun, though, when the ball popped out of Perry Jones's hands near midfield. I saw the scoop; I didn't see the score, because I didn't especially feel like making the effort to stand up in the sea of Hoosier crimson around me. Neither did the elderly-ish Hoos in front of me. It was party time in Bloomington and that was affirmed when Mike Rocco threw a pick and set up the Hoosiers for yet another touchdown drive. I spent that drive meditating upon field goals that should have been touchdowns and other Things That Come Back To Haunt You.
It was very rude of me, if perhaps understandable at that point, to sort of expect Rocco to throw his third pick of the night in the attempt to lead the game-tying drive. As the history books show, he didn't, and my stupor gradually gave way, completion by completion, to renewed interest. I reassured my cousin that a minute and a half was more than plenty of time for our defense to screw things up - you know how things are with our defense - and that statement probably fell on deaf ears because it was drowned out by the sound of Cam Johnson going RAAAWWWRRR. I'm sure that's the actual noise he made when he ate Wright-Baker's head and gathered the ball from his very surprised hands. Such is the theater that brings us back to college football week after week.
Some football observations:
-- You have to give Jim Reid a ton of credit for the play call that resulted in Johnson's grab. Johnson lined up wide, outside of Laroy Reynolds who was almost a defensive end by positioning. Reynolds occupied the left tackle, who ignored Johnson entirely. Technically it was a blitz since the linebacker was rushing, but it looked nothing like one. Very well-disguised and a terrific play to call with an empty backfield; Reid won that round of rock-paper-scissors in a very big way.
-- Was it Justin Renfrow that blocked the field goal on IU's first possession? I think so. We have much defensive tackles.
-- If Robert Randolph isn't making a few Groza Award people look his direction, then there's no such thing as the Groza Award.
-- Seriously, good for Mike Rocco. That was an awesome drive with the chips down. For a true sophomore in his first year starting - or even for a senior but especially for a sophomore - it was a helluva thing to do. I'm glad I don't have to worry about how the team will respond to adversity. They screwed up a few big things but because they won it means I don't go into them in detail. They did screw up some things, though, and it warms my heart that in the end it didn't matter because resilience > mistakes. Yeah, OK. IU isn't actually good. You have to build your confidence somehow, though. Everything is harder to do when you've never done it before, and coming back after blowing a big lead is no exception.
-- That guy Wright-Baker is damn slippery, but he could not throw a downfield ball to save his life. IU will have a very good quarterback if he learns to throw more consistently like he did on IU's final touchdown, in which Demetrious Nicholson's coverage was not bad at all.
Prediction summary and the rest of the weekend review tomorrow. It does not look good for the good guys in the prediction department.
Actually, the fun factor was off the charts. If you've never been to IU you probably expect a pretty docile tailgate scene and not a whole of people in the stadium. I hadn't, so I did. Especially for an objectively crappy nonconference opponent. Maybe it was because it was the first home game of the year for the Hoosiers, but the attendance was perfectly good (even if the stadium wasn't quite full) and Indiana has a really nice tailgating zone in the trees and grass very near the stadium. Hell, the Hoosiers even came out in special new white helmets. I'm always kind of excited when the other team thinks we're a good enough occasion to break out a crowd-pleaser like that. (I, as well as my IU-alum cousin and some of those around me, liked the white helmets, and all for the same reason: it makes them not look like Oklahoma.) Other than the passive-aggressive note left on my windshield that said (among other things) "go Hookees" the IU crowd is a friendly and enjoyable bunch. (I bet if you dissed their basketball you'd find their nasty side, though.) So I highly recommend a Bloomington road trip for those with spare time.
I wasn't having very much fun, though, when the ball popped out of Perry Jones's hands near midfield. I saw the scoop; I didn't see the score, because I didn't especially feel like making the effort to stand up in the sea of Hoosier crimson around me. Neither did the elderly-ish Hoos in front of me. It was party time in Bloomington and that was affirmed when Mike Rocco threw a pick and set up the Hoosiers for yet another touchdown drive. I spent that drive meditating upon field goals that should have been touchdowns and other Things That Come Back To Haunt You.
It was very rude of me, if perhaps understandable at that point, to sort of expect Rocco to throw his third pick of the night in the attempt to lead the game-tying drive. As the history books show, he didn't, and my stupor gradually gave way, completion by completion, to renewed interest. I reassured my cousin that a minute and a half was more than plenty of time for our defense to screw things up - you know how things are with our defense - and that statement probably fell on deaf ears because it was drowned out by the sound of Cam Johnson going RAAAWWWRRR. I'm sure that's the actual noise he made when he ate Wright-Baker's head and gathered the ball from his very surprised hands. Such is the theater that brings us back to college football week after week.
Some football observations:
-- You have to give Jim Reid a ton of credit for the play call that resulted in Johnson's grab. Johnson lined up wide, outside of Laroy Reynolds who was almost a defensive end by positioning. Reynolds occupied the left tackle, who ignored Johnson entirely. Technically it was a blitz since the linebacker was rushing, but it looked nothing like one. Very well-disguised and a terrific play to call with an empty backfield; Reid won that round of rock-paper-scissors in a very big way.
-- Was it Justin Renfrow that blocked the field goal on IU's first possession? I think so. We have much defensive tackles.
-- If Robert Randolph isn't making a few Groza Award people look his direction, then there's no such thing as the Groza Award.
-- Seriously, good for Mike Rocco. That was an awesome drive with the chips down. For a true sophomore in his first year starting - or even for a senior but especially for a sophomore - it was a helluva thing to do. I'm glad I don't have to worry about how the team will respond to adversity. They screwed up a few big things but because they won it means I don't go into them in detail. They did screw up some things, though, and it warms my heart that in the end it didn't matter because resilience > mistakes. Yeah, OK. IU isn't actually good. You have to build your confidence somehow, though. Everything is harder to do when you've never done it before, and coming back after blowing a big lead is no exception.
-- That guy Wright-Baker is damn slippery, but he could not throw a downfield ball to save his life. IU will have a very good quarterback if he learns to throw more consistently like he did on IU's final touchdown, in which Demetrious Nicholson's coverage was not bad at all.
Prediction summary and the rest of the weekend review tomorrow. It does not look good for the good guys in the prediction department.
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