game preview: Miami

Date/Time: Saturday, November 7; 3:00

TV: RSN/ESPN3

Record against the Canes: 6-6

Last meeting: UVA 30, Miami 13; 11/22/14, Charlottesville

Last weekend: UVA 27, GT 21; Miami 30, Duke 27

Line: Miami by 7

Last week I realized: I was only 6/7ths right on what this football season feels like.  Sunday through Friday, I'm pining for basketball season.  I want it now.  Saturdays....well, UVA botched yet another onside kick last week and the stream of four-letter words that involuntarily exited my mouth were all the proof I needed that on game day, it still matters.

UVA catches a second straight team coming off an emotional win, and one even more in the spotlight than the last one.  If you believe in football psychology, and yeah, it's not foolproof but there's something to it, then another favorable matchup awaits.  Interestingly, disaster though Mike London's tenure has been, the dude owns Miami, with a 4-1 record against the Canes.

-- UVA run offense vs. Miami run defense

Top backs:
Taquan Mizzell: 104 carries, 446 yards, 4.3 ypc, 2 TDs
Daniel Hamm: 46 carries, 211 yards, 4.6 ypc, 1 TD

UVA offense:
138.88 yards/game, 3.94 yards/attempt
92nd of 128 (national); 9th of 14 (ACC)

Miami defense:
200.25 yards/game, 5.22 yards/attempt
113th of 128 (national); 14th of 14 (ACC)

Fun fact: Six of the top seven run defenses in the ACC are Atlantic teams.  The other Atlantic team is 8th.  In other words, the bottom six run defenses all reside in the Coastal.  UVA is 11th, and this week ends a three-game stretch against the only worse teams in the rankings.  It so happens Miami is the worst of the worst.

This isn't from a suspect game here and there.  The Canes are legitimately horrible at stopping the run.  The Clemson game - the last straw for Al Golden - was a total bloodbath.  Clemson ran the ball 63 times and piled up 416 yards.  Gaudy numbers like that abound.  FSU's Dalvin Cook by himself racked up 222 yards.  It doesn't matter whether Miami won the game or lost it; FBS opponents have moved the ball on the ground, and the good ones have done whatever they want.

Up front, Miami has some occasional playmakers in DEs Trent Harris and Al-Quadin Muhammad, and DT Ufomba Kamalu is a solid space-eater as well.  But the back end of the defense is porous and often out of position.  And worse yet for Miami was the loss of LB Raphael Kirby to a knee injury.  Kirby is the Canes' second-leading tackler even after missing the Duke game, and might still be after this weekend, too, unless Harris has a really big day.

With improved play from a more cohesive offensive line, this is a matchup that actually swings in the Hoos' favor.  Amazing, but true.  Taquan Mizzell has shown he can hit a hole pretty darn quickly when the hole is there, and Daniel Hamm has carried the ball enough now to show that the vision he displayed in his VMI debut last year wasn't just because VMI.  These are backs that can't do much without help, but a little space goes a long way with them.  They should have more than a little space against Miami.

-- UVA pass offense vs. Miami pass defense

Quarterback:
Matt Johns: 151/249, 60.6%; 1,755 yards, 13 TDs, 13 INTs; 7.05 ypa, 126.6 rating

Top receivers:
Taquan Mizzell: 46 rec., 499 yards, 3 TDs
Canaan Severin: 37 rec., 513 yards, 4 TDs
T.J. Thorpe: 12 rec., 207 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
223.6 yards/game, 6.9 yards/attempt
79th of 128 (national); 10th of 14 (ACC)

Miami defense:
210.1 yards/game, 6.5 yards/attempt
41st of 128 (national); 7th of 14 (ACC)

Miami lacks a true terrorizing playmaker defensive end - or tackle, for that matter - in the pass rush.  Al-Quadin Muhammad has 3 sacks, just a little more than what you'd expect just by sending any old body out there, and that leads the team.  What they do have is 12 guys with at least half a sack.  So while Matt Johns won't have to devote time always knowing where so-and-so is, he will have to keep his head on a swivel.

Where Miami is dangerous is the secondary.  Artie Burns has five picks, Rayshawn Jenkins has three, and Corn Elder, the lucky guy with the ball at the end of the Duke game, has broken up nine passes.  Johns is kind of gunslingery when given the chance, but his skills in that regard are inconsistent.  An interception or two in this game is almost guaranteed.

So I hate to say it, but the short passing game adored by Steve Fairchild is the way to go here.  Miami won't get any pressure at all if the drops are short and the ball is out quick, and since our passing game is sort of a quasi-run game anyway, you might as well attack the opponent where they're weakest.  For UVA to get the ball rolling and sustain some drives, Mizzell will have to get half a zillion touches, and the WRs targeted with great care.

-- Miami run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Joseph Yearby: 126 carries, 641 yards, 5.1 ypc, 5 TDs
Mark Walton: 74 carries, 284 yards, 3.8 ypc, 5 TDs

Miami offense:
123.75 yards/game, 3.79 yards/attempt
103rd of 128 (national); 11th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
163.13 yards/game, 4.55 yards/attempt
81st of 128 (national); 11th of 14 (ACC)

Miami's running back situation is pretty simple: Joseph Yearby is the unquestioned starter, Mark Walton gives him regular breaks.  Trayone Gray comes in at the end of blowouts, and that's about the extent of it.  Miami has tried one tricky thing all year - Stacy Coley on an end-around against VT.

Yearby is easily the better back, but, fact is, most of his best work was done early this year.  Two-thirds of his yards came in the first four games of the year; the latter four, with no decrease in workload, he's averaged less than 3.2 yards a carry.  Walton is sputtering, too; his workload has markedly decreased, and most of his game-high carries are for single-digit yardage.

Neither Yearby nor Walton is really a home-run hitter, in fact.  Miami's run offense the last four games is basically the same minimally-functional assault UVA has featured most of the year.  It's a pretty vanilla attack, too, after last week's yearly dose of head games.  Last week offered some hope; UVA has done a respectable job holding down the middle against opposing run games, because Micah Kiser has been very much up to the task.  Last week was all about the edges, and UVA decisively won the battle there.  In retrospect, Trent Corney was a how-did-I-not-realize-this star of the game.  GT doesn't block, they just try to chop you down - which is one thing Corney is perfectly built to defeat.  If Corney could translate that to fighting off regular blocks, Miami would be in for a long day.  As it is, they'll probably have some stretches of success and some 3rd-and-9s.

-- Miami pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Brad Kaaya: 140/229, 61.1%; 1,846 yards, 10 TDs, 2 INTs; 8.06 ypa, 141.5 rating

Top receivers:
Rashawn Scott: 37 rec., 502 yards, 4 TDs
Herb Waters: 27 rec., 473 yards, 1 TD
Stacy Coley: 26 rec., 354 yards, 2 TDs

Miami offense:
276.3 yards/game, 7.7 yards/attempt
45th of 128 (national); 5th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
248.8 yards/game, 8.1 yards/attempt
109th of 128 (national); 13th of 14 (ACC)

It's still a mystery whether Brad Kaaya will return from a concussion he suffered against Clemson.  (Though, it's looking more likely that he will.)  His replacement, Malik Rosier, played horribly in relief in that game, but with a week of prep, Rosier was worlds more effective against Duke.  Still, Miami is better off with Kaaya under center.  Kaaya has only thrown two picks all year and was on pace to threaten the 4,000-yard mark for the season, an excellent build on his terrific debut season last year.

UVA will likely have a lot of trouble with Miami's deep stable of receivers.  Both quarterbacks know how to spread the ball around, and the Miami receivers are capable of stretching out the field and going for big chunk plays.  Miami leads the conference in long passing plays of >10 and >20 yards.  They don't go for the whole field at once off of a touchback, but they don't need to because they can get there in a handful of plays anyway, if your coverage is less than effective.

Combine that with excellent quarterback protection, and this is a very dangerous aspect of the game for UVA, which hasn't shown the ability to deal with too much at one time in the passing game.  Even GT burned them for 251 yards and two touchdowns, and that's a simple passing game to defend if you don't get sucked too close to the line of scrimmage.  Miami will make things very difficult, and probably pick up 300+ yards through the air.

-- Favorability ratings

Run offense: 6.5
Pass offense: 4
Run defense: 4
Pass defense: 2

Average: 4.13

-- Outlook

Lot of competing trends here to make this one a difficult game to call.  On the one hand, Mike London has typically had Miami's number - the one team he's consistently beaten.  In fact, until last week, Miami was the only FBS team he'd beaten more than once.  (He's now 2-4 against Georgia Tech, with the other win coming in 2011.)  And Miami is coming off a crazy-ass, emotional win, just as with GT, and this is the least intimidating road environment in all of Power 5 football.

On the other hand, UVA carries a 13-game losing streak to Florida with them, and it's entirely possible Larry Scott has lit a fire under Miami's asses that lasts longer than one week.  Miami's run defense is horrible, but UVA isn't going to Clemson up the score on them regardless, and there's a semi-decent chance the Canes could pile up 400 passing yards.

So which is it - loss or win?  Because UVA football is obnoxious like this, I choose the option that causes the most chaos, consternation, and general uproar among the fanbase: a win.  Put this team at 4-5, and some people will wonder if this team can keep the comeback trail going all the way to a bowl.  Some will declare it's just the usual Charlie Brown and Lucy routine.  Some will chew their fingernails down to the knuckle in fear that too much winning will inspire the front office to extend the coach.  All are legitimate takes.  A loss is simpler - you just remind yourself that the next basketball game is sooner than the next football game.  A win makes a mess, and we still can't have nice things, so a mess it is.

Final score: UVA 28, Miami 21

-- Rest of the ACC

Byes: Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Duke @ North Carolina - 12:00 - We're used to it being for basketball supremacy, but now it has the Coastal Conference riding on it too.

Pittsburgh vs. Notre Dame - 12:00 - Possibly the best unranked team in the country, Pitt will likely shed that label one way or the other here.

Syracuse @ Louisville - 12:30 - This week we're chock full of games that would be better hoops contests.

NC State @ Boston College - 12:30 - The Pack are looking to get bowl eligible - and if they don't do it here, it's not a stretch to say they might never get there.

Florida State @ Clemson - 3:30 - I've been bitching about this for years and FINALLY they schedule this game for November.  This is Clemson's last legitimate regular season hurdle between them and an undefeated season.

game preview: Georgia Tech

Date/Time: Saturday, October 31; 3:00

TV: RSN/ESPN3

Record against the Jackets: 17-19-1

Last meeting: GT 35, UVA 10; 11/1/14, Atlanta

Last weekend: UNC 26, UVA 13; GT 22, FSU 16

Line: GT by 6

Part of the reason I was bitching about following this football team, is that it's really stinkin' hard to come up with a narrative for anything.  This is the spot where I like to talk about What This Game Means, but what it means is the same thing every week anymore: either one more loss closer to the end of the season or a week-long reprieve.

This one means quite a bit to Georgia Tech - a team that was supposed to contend, now facing down the barrel of no-bowl-dom, but staving off execution by upsetting Florida State last week.  With their most loseable remaining game turned into a win, GT now cannot afford to completely reverse that equation, so while coming off an emotional big win is usually a good time to catch a team, that's less likely to be the case Saturday.

-- UVA run offense vs. GT run defense

Top backs:
Taquan Mizzell: 90 carries, 371 yards, 4.1 ypc, 2 TDs
Albert Reid: 37 carries, 163 yards, 4.4 ypc, 1 TD

UVA offense:
125.43 yards/game, 3.66 yards/attempt
111th of 128 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)

GT defense:
164.88 yards/game, 4.73 yards/attempt
94th of 128 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)

Could it be that UVA's running game is on a genuine upward trend?  The ground game surpassed 200 yards against UNC for the first time this season, and Smoke Mizzell picked up 117 yards; his previous career best was 66.  Daniel Hamm added 70 - mostly on one carry, but that makes two very long pickups in three games for the run game, and it gets harder to ignore them the more they're produced.

UNC had a pretty forgiving defense, but so does Georgia Tech.  Four of their opponents - all good ones - have reached that 200-yard threshold.  Alcorn State had 166.  Truth is, very few running backs have had unproductive days.  Adam Gotsis is a legitimate playmaking DT, but like David Dean, he's usually double-teamed and can't get the help he needs.  GT is most vulnerable on the outside, where the DEs are undersized and there's no playmaking linebacker to clean up.  (There's also no real nose tackle to be found; the defensive tackles are all better suited to the three-tech, but someone has to hold down the fort at the nose, usually Jabari Hunt, and he's not really up to the task.)  The team tackle leader is MLB P.J. Davis with just 54, and the next-most is 36, owned by strong safety Jamal Golden.

No doubt this team is setting me up for disappointment again, but there's reason to be more optimistic about the run game right now than at any previous point this season - including the very beginning.  Continuity along the O-line is certainly helping.  I think Jay Whitmire is finally rounding back into form.  Maybe the best sign is that I went "aw shit" when Jackson Matteo briefly went down during the UNC game - instead of just rolling my eyes at once again having to shuffle the O-line.  You can move the ball on Georgia Tech - and if the past two games can be an indicator, UVA just might do it.

-- UVA pass offense vs. GT pass defense

Quarterback:
Matt Johns: 134/221, 60.6%; 1,580 yards, 12 TDs, 12 INTs; 7.15 ypa, 127.7 rating

Top receivers:
Taquan Mizzell: 41 rec., 466 yards, 3 TDs
Canaan Severin: 33 rec., 458 yards, 3 TDs
T.J. Thorpe: 10 rec., 187 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
230.6 yards/game, 7.0 yards/attempt
79th of 128, 11th of 14 (ACC)

GT defense:
194.8 yards/game, 6.8 yards/attempt
55th of 128, 9th of 14 (ACC)

On the flip side, the passing game has chosen this moment to hit a downslide.  While the running game hit 200 yards last week, Matt Johns missed that mark for the first time this year, and by a lot, too.  A lot of that's on him.  Not every INT was his fault last week - but the one he lofted ten feet over Canaan Severin's head sure was.  It goes without saying he needs to erase those turnovers.

Gotsis remains the primary threat in this area, as he's a solid up-the-middle pass rusher.  Otherwise, GT finds it tough to generate a pass rush without blitzing, and that's not something they do often.  DC Ted Roof prefers a zone scheme and has been known to throw six defensive backs out there more often than a lot of coordinators.  The top pass defender in the secondary is D.J. White, with two picks and five break-ups.

You often see it said about quarterbacks, "we just have to get some pressure on him."  This of course is a close cousin to "we need to not turn the ball over," but with Johns, he does seem like one of those quarterbacks whose performance suffers more than usual from being pressured too much.  And unfortunately the offensive line lets that happen more than it should.  But a bend-don't-break scheme is exactly the kind of thing Steve Fairchild game-plans against.  If the opposition wants to play zone and let you amass six-yard completions all day, Fairchild will greedily slop that up.  I could see that working out.

-- GT run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Justin Thomas: 107 carries, 400 yards, 3.7 ypc, 6 TDs
Patrick Skov: 81 carries, 331 yards, 4.1 ypc, 6 TDs
Marcus Marshall: 57 carries, 508 yards, 8.9 ypc, 4 TDs

GT offense:
283.38 yards/game, 5.60 yards/attempt
16th of 128, 2nd of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
165.86 yards/game, 4.57 yards/attempt
87th of 128, 9th of 14 (ACC)

No need to overdo this.  By now you know what GT does.  You also know how to stop it: rigidly disciplined assignment football and stepping on, over, or around players who cut-block you.  Disciplined assignment football left this team a long time ago and never bothered with a forwarding address.  You can't stop this run consistently with half the team getting so easily redirected.  UVA hasn't successfully stopped the GT attack for a long time, and this team looks especially susceptible.

-- GT pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Justin Thomas: 52/118, 44.1%; 915 yards, 10 TDs, 6 INTs; 7.75 ypa, 127.0 rating

Top receivers:
Ricky Jeune: 15 rec., 319 yards, 3 TDs
Micheal Summers: 8 rec., 120 yards, 2 TDs
Mikell Lands-Davis: 7 rec., 169 yards, 1 TD

GT offense:
120.9 yards/game, 8.0 yards/attempt
38th of 128, 4th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
248.4 yards/game, 8.1 yards/attempt
109th of 128, 14th of 14 (ACC)

The Hoos will be without Tim Harris for this game, which is probably OK given Harris's propensity to give up the big play and GT's propensity to look for it.

For GT, Ricky Jeune is nicely filling the big-and-tall receiver role that they like to feature prominently in what little passing game they have.  Everything's pretty much as usual here too, except that Justin Thomas has been less accurate than most GT triple-option QBs, especially last year's version of Justin Thomas.  Defend the GT pass game by not getting suckered in by what looks like the 17th run in a row.  Also been difficult for our defenders.

-- Favorability ratings

Run offense: 4.5
Pass offense: 4
Run defense: 1.5
Pass defense: 3

Average: 3.25

-- Outlook

Can UVA stop the triple option?  No.  And that's basically what it boils down to.

I do expect an improved offensive performance, at least on the ground.  Or at least, for last week's success to continue.  But as with last week, the run game can be good but very unlikely enough to carry the team.  The run game almost certainly limited the UNC scoring opportunities in the very cliche way of controlling the clock and giving the defense rest etc. etc., but you can't hold that particular horde off forever.  Sooner or later you have to try and stop what you can't stop.  And GT is probably the best losing-record team in the country.  They're not as bad as their wins and losses show.  That'll out, too, and GT will be on the path to reviving their bowl hopes while UVA gets put in the position of having to win out to make it.

Final score: GT 35, UVA 17

-- Rest of the ACC

Byes: none

North Carolina 26, Pittsburgh 19 - Thu. - First game among the three heavyweights of the Coastal.

Louisville @ Wake Forest - Fri. 7:00 - Wake's last game against an unranked team.

Syracuse @ Florida State - 12:00 - Always bet on a team at home that just lost a really tough one - especially if their opponent lost to UVA.

Virginia Tech @ Boston College - 12:30 - Excellent chance - believe it or not - for BC to pick up their first ACC win.

Clemson @ NC State - 3:30 - Next two games mean the season for Clemson.  It's playoffs or bust this year.

Miami @ Duke - 7:00 - The Canes were embarrassed last week and Duke struggled to get past VT; watch for Miami to pull off the upset in this one.  Also, three decades of football just went "WTF" at that characterization of a Miami win over Duke.

game preview: North Carolina

Date/Time: Saturday, October 24; 3:30

TV: RSN/ESPN3

Record against the Heels: 54-61-4

Last meeting: UNC 28, UVA 27; 10/25/14, Charlottesville

Last weekend: UVA 44, SU 38; UNC 50, WF 14

Line: UNC by 17.5

One of college sports' greatest advantage over the pros is the total lack of tangible benefit to losing.  (No, the potential firing of a fireable coach doesn't count; it's all hypothetical ether til that day actually arrives.)  In that sense, despite the complete debauchery that is the recruiting process (especially at oh say Louisville) and the golden handshakes we all pretend don't exist, and all the tattoo scandals and fake degrees and free shoes and everything, despite all that, there's still at least one absolutely pure aspect to the college level of football: it ain't for nuthin' but braggin' rights.  Nobody's lamenting the loss of draft pick status when you win, nobody's encouraging the team to lose, there's no such thing as tanking.  That's why the Syracuse game was great stuff.  Come what may in the end, there's at least one school in the ACC who can't lord it over us for a year.

Which brings us to the South's Oldest Rivalry - and the five game losing streak in this particular game that we currently wear.  Prior to that, UVA had won four straight, seven of eight, and ten of twelve, and in fact was very close to completely leveling the all-time series.  Plus we had that fun little streak where we hadn't lost to them at home since 1981.  Nice.  Bragging rights.

The Hoos are very unlikely to go bowling this year and very unlikely to save their coach's job, but losing accomplishes nothing and is always worse than winning - particularly in a rivalry with a name.  UNC is on a completely opposite trajectory from UVA, proving there is no such thing as sports-god justice given the two schools' vastly differing attitudes on classroom work, so bragging rights here are likely to continue to slip further away, but at least a win would be an unadulterated joy.

-- UVA run offense vs. UNC run defense

Top backs:
Taquan Mizzell: 66 carries, 254 yards, 3.8 ypc, 2 TDs
Albert Reid: 37 carries, 163 yards, 4.4 ypc, 1 TD

UVA offense:
112.17 yards/game, 3.35 yards/attempt
119th of 128 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)

UNC defense:
213.83 yards/game, 4.52 yards/attempt
82nd of 128 (national), 11th of 14 (ACC)

It's amazing what a functional running game can do.  Matt Johns played well against Syracuse, but I don't think the passing game was all it could've been given the shitshow that is Syracuse's pass defense.  With our usual running game, that would've been another loss.  Instead the ball actually moved on the ground.  UVA managed about four-and-a-quarter yards per carry without sacks, which is basically mediocre.  I'll take it, after what we've seen so far.  It moved them off the bottom of the conference, at least.

Of course, that's half because UNC shut down Wake Forest last week.  Kind of.  This was in large part because 1) UNC kept the pressure on Wake's non-scrambly quarterback, John Wolford, and 2) Wake's punter felt it necessary to receive a snap with his knee on the ground.  Slick.  Anyway, UNC.  Normally, midseason analyses of opposing run defenses begin with "have they played Georgia Tech yet?" and if they have, take any poor standing in the rankings with a grain of salt, and the earlier the game, the bigger the grain.

But UNC actually stopped GT pretty effectively.  Then again, Delaware, a team even more run-wacky than GT, racked up almost 300 yards.  Illinois, outside the top 100 in rushing effectiveness, also had their way.  Even North Carolina A&T had some success on the ground.

With a little consistency on the O-line, something that's been entirely lacking this year, the Hoos might actually find some room to run. (?)  UNC has an inexperienced defensive line and has found it tough to get any disruption from the front.  Linebackers Jeff Schoettmer and Shakeel Rashad do pretty good work, but they also have to do most of it.  UVA will never run roughshod over anyone, but I'm comfortable saying this matchup won't be a disaster, either.

-- UVA pass offense vs. UNC pass defense

Quarterback:
Matt Johns: 117/191, 61.3%; 1,432 yards, 11 TDs, 8 INTs; 7.5 ypa, 134.9 rating

Top receivers:
Taquan Mizzell: 35 rec., 409 yards, 3 TDs
Canaan Severin: 30 rec., 418 yards, 3 TDs
Olamide Zacchaeus: 9 rec., 48 yards, 0 TDs

UVA offense:
244.3 yards/game, 7.3 yards/attempt
62nd of 128 (national), 8th of 14 (ACC)

UNC defense:
135.5 yards/game, 5.5 yards/attempt
10th of 128 (national), 2nd of 14 (ACC)

You hear a lot about UNC's improved defense, and this is what they mean.  UNC was a wreck last year in pass defense, allowing 8.5 yards per attempt.  They've slashed three yards off of that, which is impressive.  Opposing quarterbacks are barely above 50/50 in completing their passes.

The linebackers are solid in pass coverage, and they pair up with a very solid secondary.  Carolina does a good job of limiting the YAC because their back seven or eight are sure tacklers.  Gene Chizik has taught them how to keep plays in front of them; UNC is tied for first in the country for fewest allowed pass plays above 20 yards with just 10.  That's a skewed stat when you've got two run-heavy teams on the schedule, but those teams also tend to produce big pass plays when they do bother trying.

The plus side is, Matt Johns should hopefully stay clean.  Junior Gnonkonde leads UNC's pass rush with two sacks - which is half the team total.  They both came against Wake Forest.  Even with a constantly shifting lineup, UVA has been respectable in pass protection, and Johns is good about not rooting himself to one spot.

Still, time to throw is one thing, but you have to find someone, and there's extra pressure on the playmakers this week - Mizzell and Severin, principally - to be the ones to create extra space and move the ball.  Johns is still being leashed to the pass-game-as-run-proxy strategy a little too much for my liking, and I expect guys like safety Donnie Miles to be in too many places at once, being as the pass game isn't big on subtle mental games.  I don't expect Johns to have a great day; the average per attempt could be as low as in the 4s.

-- UNC run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Elijah Hood: 79 carries, 545 yards, 6.9 ypc, 6 TDs
Marquise Williams: 56 carries, 405 yards, 7.2 ypc, 5 TDs

UNC offense:
218.5 yards/game, 6.15 yards/attempt
5th of 128 (national), 1st of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
160.83 yards/game, 4.47 yards/attempt
79th of 128 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)

Here's where it gets scary.  OK, let's be honest, here's why UVA is going to lose this game.  The Hoos could move the ball.  The run game has a chance to be respectable and the quarterback play is still solid.  That seems good until you see how an offense really operates.  There's a lot of experience everywhere on this side of the ball and Larry Fedora is a quality offensive mind.

Elijah Hood is in his sophomore season and now living up to the hype.  He's just shy of seven yards a carry, and capable of running people right over.  He gets a lot of running room from an incredibly experienced interior line; right guard Landon Turner in particular is a pro prospect, and all five starting linemen were also starters last year.  On negative plays, which are few and far between, Hood has only lost six yards all year.  By comparison, Taquan Mizzell lost seven on negative plays just against Syracuse.

Then you add Marquise Williams's legs, which not only have plays run specifically for them but can also carry him right out of trouble.  The UVA defensive line really stinks at maintaining containment in the pocket and this tendency is going to burn them like eight or ten times.  Not even a little bit optimistic about this.

-- UNC pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Marquise Williams: 84/131, 64.1%; 1,127 yards, 9 TDs, 6 INTs; 8.6 ypa, 149.9 rating

Top receivers:
Quinshad Davis: 24 rec., 288 yards, 1 TD
Ryan Switzer: 19 rec., 265 yards, 2 TDs
Bug Howard: 17 rec., 281 yards, 2 TDs

UNC offense:
263.7 yards/game, 9.4 yards/attempt
12th of 128 (national), 1st of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
252.2 yards/game, 8.0 yards/attempt
109th of 128 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

And this is worse.  Williams has been awfully efficient, and not only that, but he spreads the ball around exceptionally well.  Four different receivers - the players above plus Mack Hollins - have a minimum of 265 yards.  Three of them are 6'4" or taller (Switzer is the only exception.)

There is no need to overanalyze this.  UVA's secondary has been horrendous this year at reading routes and communication and important stuff like making sure all the receivers are covered and not triple-covering some decoy route.  UNC has tall, fast receivers, running a system basically guaranteed to confound a very confundable secondary, and a quarterback that, should you succeed in getting pressure on him, will destroy you for losing contain, which this D-line does all the time.  UVA's best chance may be to run a 2-3-6 defense, put two defensive ends on one side, at least try to force Williams to operate in just half the field, and flood the secondary with defenders.

-- Favorability ratings

Run offense: 4
Pass offense: 3
Run defense: 1
Pass defense: 0

I considered a negative number for the pass defense.

Average: 1.5

That's not really the average, but we're tacking on a half-point penalty for special teams, because Fedora loves to mess with London, who has yet to figure out how to defend a fake punt.

-- Outlook

If only the ability to sometimes make chicken salad out of the run game could sustain a game.  At best I think UVA can use it to artificially pump up the time of possession and limit UNC's chances with the ball.  They have such an explosive offense it might not matter, and even when the Hoos do get a stop, who knows what might happen.  A popular sentiment on the boards this week, what with Syracuse running yet another successful fake punt on UVA's special teams, is that UNC will do the same thing when they get a chance.  That seems likely, unless Fedora is just holding things close to the vest.

Which he might do, considering the strong likelihood that his offense will make mincemeat out of this defense.  UVA under London has shown no propensity whatsoever to stopping a Fedora offense, or Marquise Williams in particular.  Except for most of the second half last year until they ruined it by giving up the game winning drive, allowing recovery of an onside kick, and then handing UNC a first down on 4th-and-1 by putting 12 men on the field.  Truly a Mike London Special.  This one's not ending well, either.

Final score: UNC 45, UVA 13

-- Rest of the ACC

Byes: none

Clemson @ Miami - 12:00 - This one might put a few more Fire Golden planes in the sky.

NC State @ Wake Forest - 12:00 - The Pack losing this one would make a mockery of the scheduling-for-success concept after their hideous OOC slate.

Pittsburgh @ Syracuse - 12:00 - Pitt can be the third ACC team to earn bowl eligibility; quite a first season for Pat Narduzzi.

Boston College @ Louisville - 12:30 - Battle of the Birdies.

Duke @ Virginia Tech - 3:30 - Michael Brewer returns to QB for the Hokies, but it's their once-vaunted defense that's bringing them down this year.

Florida State @ Georgia Tech - 7:00 - Raise your hand if you thought GT would start the ACC season 0-5.  Yup, that's nobody.

game preview: Syracuse

Date/Time: Saturday, October 17; 3:30

TV: RSN, ESPN3

Line: UVA by 7

Record against the Orange: 2-2

Last meeting: UVA 27, Cuse 24; 9/17/05, Syracuse

Last weekend: Pitt 26, UVA 19; USF 45, Cuse 24

Ten years ago was the last time we played Syracuse - not even a thought of them ever being in the ACC - and I guess that's appropriate because this week (Thursday, in fact) was also the ten-year anniversary of what ESPN called "the wildest day in college football this century."  You'd almost never be off base in accusing ESPN of hyperbole, but in this case you might just have to admit they're right.

This is all apropos of nothing, of course, except that UVA got to take part in it so that was pretty sweet.  But that was then, when we were good.  This is now, when......(sigh).  UVA is actually favored in this one, which is certainly the last time they'll be favored in any game this season.  Which means that if you're some kind of whackjob who thinks we could get to watch a bowl game this year, this one is a must-must-must win.

-- UVA run offense vs. Cuse run defense

Top backs:
Taquan Mizzell: 53 carries, 196 yards, 3.7 ypc, 0 TDs
Albert Reid: 31 carries, 152 yards, 4.9 ypc, 1 TD

UVA offense:
102.8 yards/game, 3.27 yards/attempt
121st of 128 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

Cuse defense:
137.8 yards/game, 3.81 yards/attempt
50th of 128 (national), 8th of 14 (ACC)

Syracuse's defense is basically crap.  The pass defense is mega-crap and the run defense is just your basic average crap, but it's an overall crapshow.  Against even crappier offenses, though, Cuse has managed at least to keep teams from running the ball.

The Orange started the season 3-0 in large part because they kept lousy opponents from moving the ball on the ground.  Rhode Island netted four yards.  But Rhode Island is a 1-5 I-AA team.  Wake and CMU had slightly better luck - slightly.  Those teams are 119th and 126th in rushing offense this year, so stopping them isn't a major accomplishment.  On the other hand, Cuse got steamrolled by LSU and USF, allowing 268 and 281 yards on the ground, respectively.

All well and good, but you know as well as I do where UVA stands.  The Hoos would be worse than CMU if not for Reid's 71-yarder against Pitt.  That run added almost half a yard to the team's season average.  Cuse's defenders don't look that scary on the stat sheet.  The front seven doesn't have any big-time run stuffers.  Safety Antwan Cordy is the only player with any significant number of run-game TFLs.  But Syracuse can stop crappy run offenses, and UVA's is just about as crappy as it gets.

-- UVA pass offense vs. Cuse pass defense

Quarterback:
Matt Johns: 93/154, 60.4%; 1,198 yards, 9 TDs, 7 INTs; 7.8 ypa, 135.9 rating

Top receivers:
Canaan Severin: 26 rec., 348 yards, 2 TDs
Taquan Mizzell: 25 rec., 340 yards, 3 TDs
T.J. Thorpe: 6 rec., 145 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
246.4 yards/game, 7.6 yards/attempt
53rd of 128 (national), 7th of 14 (ACC)

Cuse defense:
255.8 yards/game, 8.3 yards/attempt
114th of 128 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

On the other hand, this has possibilities.  Anyone who's bothered to try passing the ball on Cuse has found success.  (Except Rhode Island, which doesn't count.)  Good, bad, or indifferent, the four I-A teams the Orange has faced have all torched them through the air.  Wake rolled up 373 yards; Central followed that with 430.

It's not the pass rush.  Defensive ends Ron Thompson and Luke Arciniega have five and four sacks, respectively.  Bad news for UVA, because Michael Mooney is sidelined and Jack English is going to have to deal with Thompson all day long.  Mooney isn't all that great of shakes and is probably out of place at LT, but English is probably gonna be toast on a stick.

Still, the Syracuse secondary is just bad.  Cordy is a run defender, period.  The cornerbacks can barely cover; opposing wide receivers are constantly having big days and spitting out huge gains.  Even when the line gets pressure, QBs are completing 56.7% of their passes, not far off the 64.9% they give up overall.

I'm always saying that if UVA is ever going to be successful, Matt Johns has to do it.  Here's his chance.  As long as he's not getting blindsided, he should be able to have a big game.  With the state of the run game, there's basically no excuse for not throwing the ball 50 times.

-- Cuse run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Jordan Fredericks: 42 carries, 236 yards, 5.6 ypc, 2 TDs
Eric Dungey: 41 carries, 137 yards, 3.3 ypc, 2 TDs

Cuse offense:
165.2 yards/game, 4.35 yards/attempt
64th of 128 (national), 8th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
156.2 yards/game, 4.51 yards/attempt
84th of 128 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)

The Syracuse running game is very multifaceted, so the Hoo defenders will get a lot of practice at staying on their toes.  They don't do the full Paul Johnson, but there's a healthy dose of triple-option game involved.  Rather than run it from under center, they'll go from the shotgun, so it's more like the Rich Rodriguez read-option combined with the old-fashioned Nebraska option pitch if the QB keeps on the first handoff.

But that's a play in the playbook rather than the whole run offense.  An often-used play, but a play nonetheless.  The Orange are also known to line up in the pistol, for example.  Or just hand the ball off regular.  They do a bunch of different stuff.

It doesn't work all the time.  In non-URI games, the Cuse is averaging about 3.9 yards a carry; not pitiful like some run games I know, but not too amazing.  Jordan Fredericks and George Morris split most of the time at running back and they've both been inconsistent this year.  Fredericks is a freshman and can be tough to bring down when he has some room, but almost all of his yards were against URI and CMU.  Morris, on the other hand, ran for a whopping -1 yards against Central and 7 yards on 5 carries against USF, but had a productive if lightly-used day against LSU.  The most consistent producer is actually the quarterback, Dungey, whose non-sack running stats are pretty OK.

It sets up to be a tricky day for UVA's defense, which already has been publicly scaled back on the assignment complexity.  Defending the option is all about complex assignments, hard enough when you know it's coming.  From a personnel standpoint, Syracuse doesn't scare, and they're not going to run completely amok on the defense, holey though it's been.  It's just a question of whether these still-raw linebackers and frankly rather undisciplined defensive ends can execute against the surprises.

-- Cuse pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Eric Dungey: 42/70, 60.0%; 660 yards, 7 TDs, 1 INT; 9.4 ypa, 169.3 rating

Top receivers:
Steve Ishmael: 14 rec., 218 yards, 2 TDs
Ben Lewis: 10 rec., 89 yards, 1 TD
Brisly Estime: 8 rec., 197 yards, 2 TDs

Cuse offense:
176.4 yards/game, 7.2 yards/attempt
65th of 128 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
272.6 yards/game, 8.2 yards/attempt
111th of 128 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)

For the second year in a row, Syracuse's quarterback Terrel Hunt went down with an early season-ending injury, this time an Achilles.  Tough news for him; for Syracuse, it helped them find their QB of both the present and future in Eric Dungey.  Dungey's a freshman, so just put him under pressure, you think, and maybe you're right but he's been basically a revelation for Cuse all the same.  He was injured and missed the LSU game; had he played, it might've meant an upset because third-stringer Zack Mahoney wasn't real good.

Dungey has some very respectable weapons around him.  Slot receiver Brisly Estime is a YAC machine and has an 89-yard touchdown this year, that against Wake Forest.  Steve Ishmael had a very good season as a freshman last year and is on his way to a better one yet.  The passing game focuses on them and H-backs Ben Lewis and Ervin Phillips, plus tight end Josh Parris.  Lewis and Parris are the center of the short passing game (there's barely any usage of the running backs) and Phillips can make some stretch plays out of the backfield.

As UVA's incredibly disappointing pass defense has yet to show it can stop anyone consistently, the best defense here is Syracuse's run game.  They lean heavily toward the ground attack, with less than 40% of their plays being pass attempts.  That's good for UVA; Dungey hasn't turned the ball over but once, so heavy use of the pass game would make things that much harder.

-- Favorability ratings

UVA run offense: 2.5
UVA pass offense: 7.5
UVA run defense: 4
UVA pass defense: 2.5

Average: 4.13

-- Outlook

Both these teams need this one badly, because both these teams are facing the worst team left on their schedule.  Syracuse's bowl aspirations would be a lot easier if they can win this one; UVA's, too, which is to say that a sliver of hope exists with a win and zero with a loss.

I'm about to do something crazy here and I don't know why; probably, it's because I think Syracuse's pass defense is so bad it overshadows everything else.  And because the game is at home.  Syracuse fans think the short-pass defense is of particular badness, which probably has Steve Fairchild rubbing his hands with glee.  If that's really true, Taquan Mizzell could have a monster day.  I think Canaan Severin will have a good one.

And I think we might actually be in better shape if we're losing after three quarters.  You'd like to see Syracuse shut down their pass game and UVA open up theirs, and the best way to get the coaches into that mode is to be losing.  So let's just say that's what happens, and Mike London gets another chance to praise his team's resilience and stick-to-it-iveness.

If we lose this one I'm never again predicting another Mike London team to win so much as a game of Candy Land.

Final score: UVA 37, Cuse 34

-- Rest of the ACC

Byes: Duke, NC State

Louisville @ Florida State - 12:00 - I'd be willing to call this a dangerous trap sort of game for FSU if it wasn't in Tallahassee.

Pittsburgh @ Georgia Tech - 12:30 - With FSU coming to town next week, GT is at risk of carrying a six-game losing streak into the UVA game.

Virginia Tech @ Miami - 3:30 - Battle to shake out some pecking order in the middle of the Coastal.

Boston College @ Clemson - 7:00 - BC has a great defense and nothing to show for it because the offense might actually be worse than UVA's.

Wake Forest @ North Carolina - 7:00 - Wake Forest is weirdly good sometimes and awful some others, and probably not enough of the former to win this one.

game preview: Pittsburgh

Date/Time: Saturday, October 10; 12:30

TV: ACC Network, ESPN3

Record against the Panthers: 3-4

Last meeting: UVA 24, Pitt 19; 10/4/14, Charlottesville

Last week: UVA bye; Pitt 17, VT 13

Injury report: (italics - out for season)

Virginia:

OUT: LB Malcolm Cook, OG Sean Karl, OT Sadiq Olanrewaju, OG Ryan Doull, OT Jake Fieler, WR Andre Levrone, LB Jahvoni Simmons, OG Eric Tetlow

DOUBTFUL: CB Divante Walker

QUESTIONABLE: none

PROBABLE: none

Pittsburgh:

OUT: WR Tre Tipton, WR Chris Wuestner, RB James Conner, RB Rachid Ibrahim, OL Jaryd Jones-Smith, OL Alex Paulina

DOUBTFUL: none

QUESTIONABLE: none

PROBABLE: RB Darrin Hall, FB Colton Lively

The UVA game notes point out that this is UVA's latest conference opener since 1968.  So on the plus side of that, we got to keep a zero in one of our loss columns for quite a while.  This is the third year of ACC expansion as a result of the recent conference merry-go-round, and in each of them UVA has opened with an expansion team; 2013 and 2015 with Pitt and last year with Louisville.  Most of Mike London's teams have opened the ACC season 0-1 - last year being the only exception - and it'll be tough to start a streak in that regard as Pitt has a new growly defense run by defensive wizard Pat Narduzzi.  The Panthers held VT to 100 yards last week, the second-worst performance of the entire Frank Beamer era.

Last year, after beating Pitt, UVA was 4-2, 2-0.  The game column was about the fact that fanhood is perpetually about the good feelings that come from potential, and that team, at the time, still had a lot of potential.  They won, of course, one more game the rest of the year.  This team could conceivably - not likely, but conceivably - start 2-0 again.  If they're going to pile up wins, these next two games are their best chance.

-- UVA run offense vs. Pitt run defense

Top backs:
Taquan Mizzell: 46 carries, 157 yards, 3.4 ypc, 0 TDs
Albert Reid: 27 carries, 78 yards, 2.9 ypc, 1 TD

UVA offense:
93.75 yards/game, 2.98 yards/attempt
124th of 128 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

Pitt defense:
71.25 yards/game, 2.46 yards/attempt
8th of 128 (national), 2nd of 14 (ACC)

That looks like a really nasty matchup.  Oh, don't get me wrong - it is, because UVA's "power run game" is like repeatedly throwing yourself at locked doors up and down the neighborhood.  You might break through one or two of them, but mostly you'll just bash yourself around and people who watch you think you should be locked in a nuthouse for trying.

Point is, Pitt's stats look really, really good, but the secret to them is that most of that success is the result of putting nuclear pressure on opposing quarterbacks.  No, that's not good either, but if you take out all the QB rushing stats from Pitt's first four games, you get about 4.25 yards a carry.  Weirdly, the quality of competition has gone up from game to game (except that Iowa would almost definitely beat VT) but the run defense has gotten stingier and stingier.  Youngstown State's Jody Webb gashed the Panthers for 127 yards on 17 carries - that's 7.5 yards each time.

Fast forward to the VT game, where Pitt gave up a total of nine yards on the ground.  Tech barely tried to run the ball.  Brenden Motley had more carries than all of Tech's backs combined, some of which he even intended to do when he broke the huddle.  Motley had a carry of 22 yards and netted -14, so... damn.

With five linemen out for this game, three of them for the season, the cavalry isn't coming.  Mike London announced that Jay Whitmire would start, which is all you get for a ray of hope.  The season trend so far suggests that Pitt's defenders are getting more comfortable with what Narduzzi is asking of them.  Linebackers Nicholas Grigsby and Matt Galambos are racking up tackles, and Pitt has a weapon in 335-pound nose tackle Tyrique Jarrett.  Between Jarrett and Galambos the middle will be closed to UVA all day long.  UVA has to hope to break a few on the edge, or not at all.

-- UVA pass offense vs. Pitt pass defense

Quarterback:
Matt Johns: 76/121, 62.8%; 989 yards, 8 TDs, 6 INTs; 8.17 ypa, 143.4 rating

Top receivers:
Canaan Severin: 23 rec., 298 yards, 1 TD
Taquan Mizzell: 22 rec., 292 yards, 3 TDs
Evan Butts: 6 rec., 63 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
255.8 yards/game, 7.9 yards/attempt
36th of 128 (national), 2nd of 14 (ACC)

Pitt defense:
172.5 yards/game, 5.7 yards/attempt
21st of 128 (national), 5th of 14 (ACC)

Matt Johns had kind of a crap day against Boise State, but he's still among the ACC's stat leaders.  And even that lousy game gave him a single-game passer rating higher than Greyson Lambert's full season rating last year and David Watford's in 2013.  That connection with Canaan Severin is turning out really well.

But the laundry guys had better get the grass-stain bleach out.  Pitt has averaged more than four sacks a game, including seven against VT, and quarterbacks have had it miserable against them even when not getting dragged down with the ball in their hand.  Only Iowa's C.J. Beathard did not go backwards on the ground, and only Beathard completed more than half his passes.  Motley got picked off three times.

VT's O-line is horrible, and UVA is at least acceptable in pass protection.  Seven sacks allowed in four games - not bad.  Not wonderful, but it at least puts you in the top half of the country.  Narduzzi is expert at bringing pressure, though, so this is a big test to see if the line can at least hold their own long enough to let Johns make some plays.  As with every single game this year, it's UVA's only chance at victory.

-- Pitt run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Qadree Ollison: 60 carries, 427 yards, 7.1 ypc, 3 TDs
Darrin Hall: 29 carries, 90 yards, 3.1 ypc, 1 TD

Pitt offense:
168.25 yards/game, 4.15 yards/attempt
78th of 128 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
160.0 yards/game, 4.64 yards/attempt
94th of 128 (national), 11th of 14 (ACC)

I, you, and everybody thought that when James Conner went down for the season, Pitt lost most of what made them any good.  Qadree Ollison says otherwise with his 427 yards through the first four games of the season.

True, most of them came against Youngstown State.  And outside of him and Conner's YSU output, Pitt's run offense hasn't been much.  Darrin Hall has piled up his 90 yards in completely boring fashion, no more than nine at a time.  Nathan Peterman is even less of a running QB than the usurped Chad Voytik, which is saying a lot.  Pitt's running game is 100% bread and butter.

Still, it works - because like Conner, Ollison is a massive load to take down.  Weighing in at 230 pounds, he gives linebackers a very hard time because he's as big as they are.  He's been a workhorse, save for the Iowa game when he had only four carries - and that's probably as big a reason as any why they lost because he was still more effective than Hall.

Pitt isn't real tricky, which works in UVA's favor as one of the problems so far this year has been communication breakdowns.  That's been more of a pass-defense issue, but UVA's chances improve when they can just try and win some one-on-one battles.  Ollison will be trying to plunge straight ahead, so this is a really good benchmark kind of game for UVA.  If they can stop the Pitt attack, great - they can stop something.  If not, and if Ollison is allowed to gain momentum before crashing into the second level, it'll be hard to see what the Hoos can stop if the opponent brings any kind of O-line.

-- Pitt pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Nathan Peterman: 43/66, 65.2%; 538 yards, 4 TDs, 3 INTs; 8.15 ypa, 144.5 rating

Top receivers:
Tyler Boyd: 26 rec., 274 yards, 1 TD
J.P. Holtz: 7 rec., 102 yards, 2 TDs
Darrin Hall: 5 rec., 30 yards, 0 TDs

Pitt offense:
162.5 yards/game, 7.3 yards/game
T-58th of 128 (national), T-8th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
285.3 yards/game, 8.0 yards/game
108th of 128 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)

Pittsburgh started the season with a bit of a quarterback competition between incumbent Chad Voytik and Tennessee transfer Nathan Peterman.  The last two games have made it abundantly clear: Peterman it is.  Voytik has been dumping it off too much and his numbers don't look horrendous, but the team doesn't move down the field.

Tyler Boyd has dominated the receiving stats for Pitt, as he's done the last two seasons.  Still one of the ACC's best.  Boyd isn't a huge big-play threat and hasn't scored yet this year, but he's open all the time and easily one of the toughest covers in the league.  Nobody else has double-digit receptions for Pitt, and the only one even close is tight end J.P. Holtz, a solid blocker with a bit of a receiving streak.  He's got seven catches, Darrin Hall has five, a few guys have four.  As with UVA's Severin, Boyd is the guy.

Peterman isn't very mobile, and UVA should be able to get to him a few times, but really they'll need to do more than they have been.  Coverage breakdowns (which have been frequent) will be deadly if they involve Boyd, because Peterman will always be looking in that direction.  This secondary is too talented to give UVA the worst pass defense in the league, and they've got to figure out their problems fast.

-- Favorability ratings

Run offense: 2.5
Pass offense: 4.5
Run defense: 3.5
Pass defense: 3

Average: 3.38

-- Outlook

On the one hand, the natural thing to ask here is: if the coaching staff is so lousy, what good is an extra week of practice?  The answer is that UVA is 4-2 after bye weeks in the London era (there were two last year.)  Pitt is not a bad opponent to start with, too.  The coaches are talking about simplifying things up and getting less scheme-y and more react-y.  That's a little annoying considering the defense is loaded with veterans who should've had plenty of time to learn the schemes, but Pitt brings kind of a Big Ten approach in stark contrast to Boise State.  That could help the defense get its footing back.

Another plus: likely low-scoring game combined with a UVA quarterback that can strike big at times.  It's the most natural thing in the world to be down on the Hoos' chances because of the last two games, because those games sucked donkey dong.  Rationally speaking, though, UVA has a shot in this one.

Rationally speaking, though, Pitt is also the better team, playing at home, and a Pat Narduzzi defense against a Steve Fairchild offense is what we're staring at here.

Final score: Pitt 20, UVA 10

-- Rest of the ACC

Byes: Louisville, North Carolina

NC State @ Virginia Tech - Fri. 8:00 - The Pack started 4-0 with four games against Fluffycakes the Kittycat and need to prove they can beat a legit team.  Problem is, that actual test might have to wait a week.

Duke @ Army - 12:00 - Good news for Army: their four losses are by a combined 16 points.  Bad news: one of them was to Fordham.

Wake Forest @ Boston College - 3:00 - The 8-point loss to FSU might've been Wake's high-water mark this season.

Georgia Tech @ Clemson - 3:30 - Once hailed as an outside playoff contender, GT is still very talented but at serious risk of not going bowling this season.

Syracuse @ South Florida - 3:30 - On the other hand, Syracuse could very well get there, which would be very weird.

Miami @ Florida State - 8:00 - Miami hasn't won this game since 2009, which is one of Al Golden's greatest sins, but FSU has been unconvincing in victory these past couple weeks.

always look on the bright side of life

Oh come on guys.  That wasn't so bad.  You act like nothing good comes out of a game like that.  Well I got news for you.  Lots of positives to take away from that shellacking mildly disappointing outcome.

-- Chrome helmets!  Siiiiick.  Players think that kind of thing is totally sweet.  I know because I hear it all the time from fans who think that kind of thing is totally sweet.  (UVA's only actual good performance this year has come in the classy and traditional regular blue helmets, blue jersey, and white pants.  Just sayin'.)

-- Chrome helmets bonus!  You couldn't see the V-sabre logo on them, which means slightly less association with that disaster mildly disappointing outcome.

-- Olamide Zacchaeus blew away the UVA record for kick return yardage in one game.  That's what we call taking advantage of your plentiful opportunities!  Plus he didn't let loose any embarrassing quotes afterwards, distinguishing him from the guy whose record he broke.**

-- Consistency, and lots of it.  Boise's line score was 17-12-17-10, the symmetrical halves marred only by Matt Johns's intentional-grounding safety.

-- I mean c'mon, it wasn't that bad, it wasn't even the worst embarrassment mildly disappointing outcome, margin-wise, of the London era.  It wasn't even the second-worst.

-- Boise State's not in our conference, so we still control our own destiny in the ACC.  Unlike, oh, say, Georgia Tech.

**Marquis Weeks and his hilariously infamous "just like running from the cops" blurt.

So now that I'm fresh out of smoke to blow up your ass, I was thinking.  What did I like least about that....thing?  Was it the usual run-game incompetence?  Was it Matt Johns's Verica-esque decision to start the game?  It sure sets an awful tone when your offense's first act is to try and get its own quarterback killed and for him to respond by panicking.

No, I think it was the players' behavior, themselves.  T.J. Thorpe doing a little dance after scoring his touchdown....ok, the game is not at all out of reach and you've just done something to halt the nasty momentum you've built up.  Fine.  I'm thinking more the second half.  I'm thinking Tim Harris, down 20-some points, emphatically signaling incomplete pass at the Boise bench, having had very little to do with said incomplete pass but it happened near him so I guess that's all the excuse you need to strut.  I'm thinking Zach Bradshaw, twice in a row, flirting with a roughing-the-passer call that he probably deserved.  I'm thinking Keeon Johnson getting a personal foul penalty on a kick return - and Mike London's first instinct being to whine at the refs instead of chew out Johnson.  Who, by the way, was sent right out on offense.

This team is in theory saying all the right things; we know we're better than we showed, we can still reach all our goals for the year, we just have to move on and get it right, etc. etc.  The unfortunate thing is that when you combine it with all the peacocking they're doing out there, they give off the undeniable impression that they're the most overconfident crappy team in history.

I suspect they're in play-for-each-other mode at this point.  Usually that comes around November when bowl eligibility is no longer a thing.  But this wasn't the first time Mike London has been miked up for a pre-game speech.  They never fell quite so flat in the past, though.  Past speeches, you've also seen the team responding enthusiastically.  Friday?  They stood still as stone, letting London motivate the camera while they impassively absorbed his "who do you play for?" speech.

It's an un-encouraging sign for the London tenure.  One of hundreds, yes.  One I may be wildly misinterpreting, yes.  I don't think I'm missing the significance, though.  56-14 means the team was not motivated.  A sack-averting interception on the first play from scrimmage means not motivated.  Armchair psychology though this may be, it seems plain that London has lost one of his major remaining selling points.  The last one that remained to affect any results in-season, actually.

A wildly undisciplined and unmotivated football team, cocky for no reason, uncoached in fundamentals and unable to execute most plays, even on the rare occasion those plays are well-called and well-timed, coached by a staff that reportedly** doesn't even get along with each other too well - mortgage the house and bet that there are more mildly disappointing outcomes on the horizon.

All that's left to look forward to is the cleaning house, and the truest sign of the toxic fecklessness of the architects of this mess is that nobody's even sure that'll happen.

**very much only message board talk, but the kind that you at least cock an interested ear to.

game preview: Boise State

Date/Time: Friday, September 25; 8:00

TV: ESPN

Record against the Broncos: 0-0

Last meeting: N/A

Last week: UVA 35, W&M 29; BSU 52, Id. St. 0

Line: Boise State by 3

The last two weeks might have been surreal for any team but Mike London's UVA.  Well-played, close losses have become a staple of the UVA diet these past six years.  Badly-played wins are not quite as common (if only because wins are not quite as common) but the hallmarks were all there.  The win did nothing to quash any discontentment among the fanbase, and the reminders that "a win's a win" were feeble, few, and far between.

There's a chance this weekend to kindle a tiny flicker of optimism.  Boise State is the least formidable of UVA's murderer's row of a nonconference schedule, outside of William & Mary (yeah, I know. shut up.)  The Broncos are still a legitimately good team, the kind for whom bowl speculation centers on which, not whether.  But UVA has a chance to stay squarely in bowl contention themselves with a win.  Even in September, December is at stake.

-- UVA run offense vs. BSU run defense

Top backs:
Taquan Mizzell: 39 carries, 155 yards, 4.0 ypc, 0 TDs
Albert Reid: 24 carries, 67 yards, 2.8 ypc, 1 TD

UVA offense:
111.67 yards/game, 3.60 yards/attempt
108th of 128 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)

BSU defense:
45.67 yards/game, 1.65 yards/attempt
3rd of 128 (national), 1st of 12 (MWC)

The matchup in this area is so comically out-of-whack that, paradoxically, it could be a good sign for UVA. It was one thing not to have much of a run game against UCLA and Notre Dame, but the Hoos could barely move the ball against William & Mary.  Very likely indicator that the run game is going to stink no matter the opponent.  Run defense also happens to be what's been winning Boise State their ballgames, so UVA can nullify BSU's main advantage just by barely even bothering.

Sean Karl has replaced Jack McDonald in the starting lineup at guard; a shuffle this soon in the season is a solid symptom of trouble.  Karl opened fall camp as a third-string guard, and injuries and not-so-great performances have given him an opening.  I'm not wild about this development; Karl was the direct culprit on both punt blocks UVA allowed late in last season.  I guess that's more of a pass-blocking thing, but Karl flat-out whiffed his assignment twice in crucial situations.  Improvement over the offseason is to be expected, but still it's not a good sign about the competition.

Funny thing about Boise is they don't have an overwhelmingly large or dominant D-line.  You could almost - almost - call it undersized.  What they do have is a very, very active defense overall.  Already 15 players have been credited with a TFL this year.  As with every stat Boise-related, some of it is skewed by their Idaho State blowout, but still.  There are enough playmakers all around the defense that none of them stand especially out on the stat sheet, at least not yet.  Didn't stop the Broncos from holding Washington's non-QB ballcarriers to 26 yards on 18 carries.  With a running game, UW probably would've won that one.  Washington has since figured out how to run the ball.  UVA has not.  This is likely to be flat-out ugly.

-- UVA pass offense vs. BSU pass defense

Quarterback:
Matt Johns: 64/96, 66.7%; 790 yards, 6 TDs, 3 INTs; 8.23 ypa; 150.2 rating

Top receivers:
Canaan Severin: 19 rec., 264 yards, 1 TD
Taquan Mizzell: 17 rec., 233 yards, 2 TDs
Evan Butts: 5 rec., 55 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
263.3 yards/game, 8.2 yards/attempt
41st of 128 (national); 5th of 14 (ACC)

BSU defense:
240.3 yards/game, 5.9 yards/attempt
36th of 128 (national), 4th of 12 (MWC)

That all means that if UVA is to have a prayer, they have to unleash Matt Johns's arm.  So far he's been excellent.  Six touchdowns against three picks, except really, one pick, since two of them were Hail Mary heaves.  And his ability to find Canaan Severin is as advertised; Severin has 19 catches (and is on pace for a 1,000-yard season); no other wide receiver has more than three.

If UVA wins this game, chances are Johns throws for at least 350 yards.  It's very doable.  Boise gave up some big plays of 84 and 70 yards in their loss to BYU, and BYU quarterback Tanner Mangum ended up with over 300 yards on just 17 completions.  The Broncos also sacked Mangum four times and picked him off twice, but it didn't make a huge difference in the end.

And I'd go so far as to say that's not likely to be repeated here.  Despite all its struggles in the run game, UVA's O-line can pass-block, and do it well.  Johns had one totally boneheaded throw for his one legit INT, but he's otherwise taken excellent care of the ball all season.  The contest to watch is Boise's cornerback Donte Deayon on Severin.  If Severin consistently wins that matchup, Johns can make things happen.  I'm still holding out hope that Steve Fairchild won't still be trying to ram the ball up the gut on 2nd and 9 late in the third quarter, and that Johns will be given much more free rein to get downfield.  If that happens, VAU has a fighting chance.

-- BSU run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Jeremy McNichols: 54 carries, 204 yards, 3.8 ypc, 7 TDs
Kelsey Young: 21 carries, 86 yards, 4.1 ypc, 2 TDs

BSU offense:
197.67 yards/game; 4.18 yards/attempt
90th of 128 (national); 8th of 12 (MWC)

UVA defense:
183.33 yards/game, 5.14 yards/attempt
112th of 128 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)

What's scary is that this portion of the game was almost always an advantage for UVA last year.  Just a given.  Now the Hoos look awful.  Over five yards a carry is a miserable number, and tackling problems and an inability to shed any blocks cast a huge shadow during the William & Mary game.  Notre Dame completely chewed up the Hoo defense, and UCLA didn't have any problems either.

The good news is that Boise's running game hasn't been much to look at.  They ground out a whole bunch of yards on Idaho State, obviously.  Against real teams, they've been, at best, not horrible.  Jeremy McNichols is a bowling-ball back, slow but powerful and highly useful in short-yardage situations.  Kelsey Young is the main change of pace, a more normal-sized back with more speed, and then the Broncos have Devan Demas, on the other end of the size-and-speed spectrum from McNichols.  Demas is the guy you worry about breaking a big one, but they only give it to him a handful of times.

Boise's unimpressiveness doesn't change the fact that UVA has got to play better against the run, or most if not all opponents will take full advantage.  Boise isn't scary, but they're good enough to break down the UVA defense anyway if it plays like it has so far.  UVA's not getting much from the D-line, because David Dean keeps getting double-teamed and the other DTs have been invisible.  Micah Kiser is racking up an impressive number of tackles, but he's still not quite fully instinctual in his play diagnoses and occasionally that extra split second costs another first down.  Still a lot of work to do.

-- BSU pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Ryan Finley: 46/70, 65.7%; 485 yards, 1 TD, 4 INTs; 6.93 ypa; 117.2 rating

Top receivers:
Shane Williams-Rhodes: 18 rec., 173 yards, 0 TDs
Thomas Sperbeck: 12 rec., 140 yards, 0 TDs
Jeremy McNichols: 8 rec., 73 yards, 1 TD

BSU offense:
234.3 yards/game, 7.6 yards/attempt
59th of 128 (national); 2nd of 12 (MWC)

UVA defense:
261.3 yards/game, 7.5 yards/attempt
94th of 128 (national); 13th of 14 (ACC)

Pass defense: also kinda crummy.  UVA has yet to register an interception, and every sack is either Kiser coming on a blitz or Dean shedding a block.  The pass rush hasn't been consistent, and there have been missed coverage assignments.  I think they're still running to catch Andrew Caskin.

Until his ankle injury, Ryan Finley was a first-year starter for Boise, and it shows so far.  His longest pass is 43 yards, and he's been picked off four times already, including three against BYU.  There is a veteran receiving corps to throw at; Shane Williams-Rhodes and Thomas Sperbeck are both excellent at what they do.  Williams-Rhodes is tiny but a really tough cover; Sperbeck is your basic Frustrating White Guy who doesn't look like a star receiver but is guaranteed to catch an 11-yard pass on 3rd-and-9, every time.

Still, Finley was a step back from the quarterback production Boise State is used to getting, and now it's his backups running the show.  Whether UVA will see more of Brett Rypien or Thomas Stuart, nobody is saying.  I at least like UVA's chances to finally get a turnover in this game.  The main concern is that whoever the Broncos choose, comes in and looks like a sudden star.  That's been known to happen once or twice or ten times in football history, usually to my teams.  However, despite poor results on defense so far, UVA faces a relatively favorable matchup here.

-- Favorability ratings

UVA run offense: 0
UVA pass offense: 6
UVA run defense: 4
UVA pass defense: 6

Average: 4

-- Outlook

There are three things to hang your hope-hat on for this game:

1) Matt Johns
2) The fact that UVA might finally get to see what they can do with a turnover or two
3) The fact that the UVA run game is so friggin' bad that it basically nullifies Boise's biggest strength.  If UVA has gotten this far with no ground game whatsoever, still won't have any, and looks likely to improve in other aspects of the game, that's a plus.

That last is half tongue-in-cheek, and half dead serious.  Naturally, of course, the flip side to that is that if Boise can put like five in the box and can still stop the run, Johns will find his passing lanes all clogged up.  That's the big danger.  The Broncos can stop the UVA run game with one hand tied behind their back, and such a huge advantage can't be taken lightly.

UVA also still has to fix the special teams, big-time.  Sure, Maurice Canady's big run was exciting, but that happened because of I-AA athletes, not because special teams are in wonderful shape.  Plus, Boise has held opponents completely scoreless in the red zone on half their trips - another place where the matchup is lopsided and one that can't be brushed aside at all.

This game feels a lot like another Notre Dame.  UVA will look good at times.  Being at home should help.  I think there's a really good chance to pull off the upset - but it would still be an upset.

Final score: BSU 30, UVA 26

-- Rest of the ACC

Byes: Clemson, Florida State, Miami, Pittsburgh

Georgia Tech at Duke - 12:00 - Duke lost to Northwestern, but it remains to be seen whether that means Duke is falling off this year or Northwestern is having one of their out-of-nowhere awesome seasons.  Could go either way.

Syracuse vs. LSU - 12:00 - Cuse didn't look like a good team before the season started, but they're 3-0 against more or less junk competition.  If they get squashed on Saturday, I'll start to think my initial impression was right.

North Carolina vs. Delaware - 12:30 - Did you know it was almost two years between Delaware ratifying the Constitution and North Carolina finally getting around to it?  That's not a terribly gripping fact but it's more interesting than anything about this game.

Wake Forest vs. Indiana - 12:30 - Fun fact about IU football: Pretty much every aerial promo shot of IU's stadium is taken during a game against Ohio State, because it's the only time the stadium is ever sold out and full of red-clad fans.  I did not make that up.

Boston College vs. Northern Illinois - 1:00 - NIU lost just 20-13 to Ohio State last week, so the world will be watching for an upset.  But then, BC had a close loss of their own last week.

Virginia Tech at East Carolina - 3:30 - History won't repeat itself....will it?

Louisville vs. Samford - 6:00 - Louisville is the best 0-3 team in the country and very likely to take the hell out of some frustration on Samford.

NC State at South Alabama - 8:00 - Best team the Pack have played so far.

the wrong lesson

Occasionally, an argument you hear in favor of "scheduling for success" is that a losing team needs to "learn how to win."  That is, if you find yourself in a dogfight, it's better that said dogfight be against a little puppy instead of an ugly junkyard dog, to increase the odds of winning.   Then, when you fight the junkyard dog you'll have winning experience and you'll know what it takes to win.  "Walk before you run" is another way of putting it.

If that game was a lesson in how to win, it should get the teacher fired.  It's like if your driver's ed teacher just put on an hour's worth of clips of Ronin and The Bourne Identity and then tossed you the keys.

Frankly, I'd rather the team learned nothing at all from beating William & Mary than any "how to win" lesson.  If that game drove home "how to win," they'll go 1-11 this year, because the lesson is: You can get outmuscled, outsmarted, outcoached, and badly outdisciplined, and still win as long as the opponent lets you break open a whole bunch of big plays.

Two weeks ago, post-UCLA, I wrote about how nothing had changed, and we just keep going back to that.  Mike London has succeeded in stamping an identity onto the team just as well as Tony Bennett has.  Those identities are 180 degrees from each other on the discipline spectrum, but there it is all the same.  You can count on Tony's teams to come up with a big stop when they need one, and you can count on one of London's seniors to take an incredibly stupid penalty at a crucial moment.  (Kwontie Moore, step on forward.**)

Worse yet is that for an entire half and a good portion of the second, UVA was dominated in the trenches.  By William & Mary.  Dominated.  The Tribe ran all over them.  They double-teamed David Dean and nobody else could shed a block.  The UVA offensive line and that wonderful power rushing game which was never going to happen, was putrid.  Lemme state this once more for effect: William & Mary dominated UVA in the trenches.

That's how you almost lose to them.  UVA was rescued by its athletes, which is basically London's recruiting gameplan.  Unfortunately, the other ACC teams have good athletes too.

**Mike Moore was hit with the penalty, and he's kind of culpable, but the reason it looked like he ran over the quarterback on that roughing-the-passer call was because Kwontie Moore gave him a totally unnecessary shove, into Mike's path.  Totally asinine.

-- First bullet point has to be this: Why in the blazing blue fuck can't this coaching staff figure out how to substitute????  How basic is this?  How did any of them get an actual coaching job not being able to do this?  Why is the whole lower deck screaming at them to put an 11th man on the field?  Normal teams have to burn a timeout, I dunno, maybe once every other game or so, over a little substitution confusion.  Even most lousy staffs can handle this.  This staff burns all three timeouts of the half with that problem.  Un-flippin'-believable.  If the complete unpreparedness for onside kicks and total lack of discipline by seniors didn't clue you in on the attention to detail paid by this staff, the chronic inability to execute a fundamental aspect of football should help you figure it out.  "Uncompromised Excellence" has devolved into "Uncompromised Incompetence."

-- I'd feel a lot more confidence in the offense if they put together more drives like the first drive of the day. Big plays are neato, but if you can consistently march methodically down the field like that, you're in business.  They sputtered a bit at first, but then the ball just kept on going, right through the red zone as if their usual red zone issues didn't exist.  I liked it a lot better than Taquan Mizzell's screen-pass touchdown, which was nice but not repeatable.  W&M blitzed a screen pass and Mizzell is faster than anyone they got, that's all.

-- How bad was the running game?  Mizzell busted a big play which was rather well-blocked.  But you always take out the biggest play - if you still average 3.5-4 yards after that, you're doing well.  Take that out, and take out Jordan Ellis's touchdown run which was incredibly poorly blocked and 100% Ellis's efforts (Ellis ran 39 yards on that play, 38 of which were after contact), and also take out anything Matt Johns did because those are sacks and scrambles.  Here's what you get: 33 yards on 21 carries.  Power running game!

-- Have to like seeing the passing game opened up lately.  I don't have any confidence in the running game, but this team will pull off a couple surprises - hell, they could still go bowling, despite everything - if they put the game in the hands of Matt Johns.  Incredibly boneheaded interception aside, Johns is quietly playing like one of the top QBs in the conference.  Only Miami's Brad Kaaya has more passing yards.  Good thing Johns is doing so well, because Greyson Lambert is absolutely tearing it up for UGA.  Johns is on pace to set the UVA single-season record for passing yards, and the way he's going I'd be more surprised if he missed it than if he made it.

what's new is old again

Welp.  Didn't take long.  It hardly seems worth writing about the latest chapter in the Mike London story because it's so uncannily similar to most of the other ones.  Talk up the latest new schemes, surprise with some swaggy hype-azz uniformz, lose by the book, chapter and verse.  OK, sure, it lacked a little something in the clock-management dumbassery department, but London did burn at least two timeouts that I can remember just because of play-call confusion.  So let's check that box.

Other boxes to check: annoying playcalling, offensive line depth biting us in the ass again, undisciplined penalties committed by seniors, crappy special teams, red zone ineptitude.  The list goes on.  A whole offseason and literally nothing has changed.  I sound surprised here, which I guess I am a little, because this time I'm really gonna get to kick that football.

I really hated those helmets, by the way, which you can chalk mostly up to my reflexive get-off-my-lawnism about uniforms.  UVA seems to be working on building a pretty solid brand identity.  You can instantly recognize those gorgeous home whites the baseball team wears, and the school uses a uniform wordmark across most other teams, if not all of them.

Football?  There's no brand identity anywhere.  The navy blue helmets would work at least to anchor the zillion other looks they think are wonderful attention getters.  Naw, let's ditch 'em and go with the marshmallow look.  And the look on Saturday was a horrible mishmash.  The pants are pure throwback - literally, because they come from the 1960s throwbacks they wore a while ago.  The jerseys are a clean, unadorned, modern take on a classic look.  And the helmets were $WAGGY HYPPPEEE, Oregon $tylez.  Pick a look.  (Preferably not swaggy hype.)  There's absolutely no attempt at a brand, an identity, a foundation, it's just "hey this would be a cool idea," and they slap it up there and there's no reason to do it or even any connection with the rest of the athletic program.

I wouldn't usually spend two paragraphs on the uniforms, but if by now you can't get the connection to the actual state of the program then we'll just have to leave you here.

Notre Dame comes to town next weekend.  Of the three difficult OOC games this is the one I expected to be toughest.  They just got done steamtrucking Texas, so I think I'm still thinking that.  If UVA is to steal an OOC win in one of those three games, Boise State is the place to look.

Some player-focused observations:

-- I was surprised Kelvin Rainey was credited with only five tackles.  He seemed to be all over, making tackles in front of the secondary and generally being much more visible than you'd expect from a first-year starter.  I liked it.  And it looks clear too that Micah Kiser is the real deal.

-- I was much less pleased with the defensive ends.  Mike Moore didn't look like a senior.  Kwontie Moore was hardly visible.  Trent Corney showed off his athleticism by actually juking his blocker, but then looked surprised that Josh Rosen actually moved away from the pressure.  Fortunately, he kind of moved toward the rest of the defensive line, but Corney's tackle attempt on that particular play looked like he still hasn't picked up a lot of fundamentals.

-- Matt Johns reminds me of a youngish NASCAR driver who clearly can drive in the lower series but moves up to the big time and is stuck on an underfunded team with an uncompetitive car, which he can't crash because they can't afford replacements.  He might compete for the winner's circle if he was allowed to drive aggressively into the corners, but he's just being asked to circle the track.  That's Steve Fairchild's playbook in a nutshell.  Johns can play quarterback, it's clear, but too often, he's not really allowed to.  Sure, he threw a pick when he cut loose, just like the driver might find a wall or two the hard way.  But in reading up about UCLA, one quote I saw was along the lines of Josh Rosen being handed the keys to a Ferrari, he just had to not crash it.  Well, Rosen took a shot downfield the very first chance he got, and it's obvious he's not just driving the Ferrari around the block.  Johns needs to be cut loose more too.  He's capable of making it work.

Until then we'll just keep throwing screen passes on every third-and-long of the game which they totally won't be expecting this time.

-- One game in and the offensive line is already a smoking wreck.  Eric Tetlow and Jake Fieler, out for the year.  Ryan Doull and Sadiq Olanrewaju, no telling when they'll be back.  Jay Whitmire, not ready to go full speed yet or he'd be out there at one of those positions somewhere.  The interior line was absolutely owned; UCLA's DTs were exactly the problem I thought they'd be, and the "power running game" went exactly as far as I thought it would.  I was openly skeptical of the power running thing; if I'd known we'd be missing four linemen going into the first game, I'd have been downright derisive.

That's OK, I'm sure we'll just recruit us a few more cornerbacks to make up for it.

It's pretty much official, I've skipped the optimistic, maybe-things-gonna-be-OK phase of the season and gone straight to snark.  With any luck that'll last the next eleven (or twelve, if Lucy doesn't pull that football away again) games and we can minimize the burning apathy, which is all that's left at the end.

game preview: UCLA

Date/Time: Sat., September 5; 3:30

TV: Fox

Record against the Bruins: 0-1

Last meeting: UCLA 28, UVA 20; 8/30/14, Charlottesville

Last weekend: N/A

Line: UCLA by 20

Injury report: N/A

Here we go.  I have to admit, when this series was scheduled, I was really happy about it.  UVA was coming off a bowl season, one of the best in a while, and the London era was at its peak.  UCLA was stashed in a holding pattern of mediocrity.  They looked like exactly the kind of opponent UVA should be scheduling on the regular: a name brand that would provide a challenge without being a threat to establish a dynasty any time soon.

Now the Bruins are sort of like the LA Clippers with tradition.  They're the new "it" program in So-Cal, while their more acclaimed neighbors get used to the back seat.  UVA's program has all the it factor of Ball State, except people are trying to hire Ball State's coach.

This is a rematch of the game in which Matt Johns set in motion his own ascendance to the starting QB job.  Johns almost succeeded in pulling off a comeback last year against a UCLA team expected to roll.  That hasn't changed the sharps' expectations for this one; UVA is a massive underdog out in the storied Rose Bowl.  It's an uphill climb for UVA right from the get-go.

-- UVA run offense vs. UCLA run defense

(all stats 2014)

Top backs:
Taquan Mizzell: 64 carries, 280 yards, 4.4 ypc, 2 TDs
Daniel Hamm: 17 carries, 75 yards, 4.4 ypc, 1 TD

UVA offense:
137.75 yards/game, 3.67 yards/attempt
102nd of 128 (national), 11th of 14 (ACC)

UCLA defense:
147.92 yards/game, 3.81 yards/attempt
34th of 128 (national), 4th of 12 (Pac-12)

We've heard the noise about how Steve Fairchild wants to establish a "power running game."  I'll be Doubting Thomas on that one til I see it.  The offensive line does appear improved over last year; it's more experienced and, because it's early in the season and nobody's had the chance to blow anything out, deeper.  (Plus, you have people like Jay Whitmire back.)

Still, the personnel we have doesn't favor power running.  Taquan Mizzell isn't going to lay the hammer down, and neither is Daniel Hamm, who's more of a one-cut-to-the-hole back - which implies a hole.  Albert Reid isn't exactly fullback-sized, but he's probably the best bet to fit in the power game.  Could Jordan Ellis contribute along those lines, too?  Wouldn't rule it out, but we haven't seen his game plan meet the enemy yet.

UCLA's personnel is set up to fit a 3-4 scheme, because that's what Jim Mora has been running.  The Bruins hired Tom Bradley to run the defense this year, and Bradley is a long, long-time 4-3 guy.  You might remember him as Penn State's interim choice to replace Joe Paterno in the wake of their scandal.  Bradley had been at Penn State for thirty-jillion years and got very, very entrenched in the 4-3.

That said, he's got the personnel he's got, so UCLA will probably not make that switch immediately.  Two absolutely massive D-linemen - Eddie Vanderdoes and Kenny Clark - anchor the front-seven, both weighing in at well over 300 pounds.  They're not just there to occupy space; both had at least 50 tackles last year.

UCLA is otherwise a bit inexperienced on the D-line, and has a pretty solid plethora of experienced linebackers, another reason the 3-4 front is worth preparing for.  They're led by veteran linebacker Myles Jack, taking over leadership of the defense from second-round NFL pick Eric Kendricks.

The biggest concern though, no pun intended, is the presence of Vanderdoes and Clark.  Is Steve Fairchild planning on trying to slam right into that front with offensive linemen who've shown time and again they struggle with straight-ahead power blocking?  Fairchild has a dilemma - he can either try that, or, after an offseason of touting his "power running" focus, abandon it in game one and set a waffling tone for the season.  I'm guessing the latter.  I don't see it working if UVA tries the hammer; they'll find the nail unwilling to move.

-- UVA pass offense vs. UCLA pass defense

(all stats 2014)

Quarterback:
Matt Johns: 89/162, 54.9%; 1,109 yards, 8 TDs, 5 INTs; 6.85 yards/attempt, 122.6 rating

Top receivers:
Canaan Severin: 42 rec., 578 yards, 5 TDs
Taquan Mizzell: 39 rec., 271 yards, 0 TDs
Andre Levrone: 15 rec., 248 yards, 2 TDs

UVA offense:
236.4 yards/game, 6.6 yards/attempt
91st of 128 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)

UCLA defense:
250.6 yards/game, 6.6 yards/attempt
32nd of 128 (national), 3rd of 12 (Pac-12)

The Hoos catch a break here.  Senior cornerback Ishmael Adams, who'd started 26 straight games before losing his starting job in fall camp, decided it was a good idea to steal a cellphone belonging to an Uber driver, and was promptly arrested.  It leaves a big hole in UCLA's nickel defense.  Adams is a heck of an athlete - he totaled 115 return yards on two picks last year and was a kick returner too.

UCLA still has all sorts of talent and experience in the secondary, though, and some guys who really hurt UVA last year.  Not least is linebacker Myles Jack, who broke up Matt Johns's fourth-down pass in the red zone that could've set up the tying score.

It remains to be seen how Tom Bradley will change the defense, but UCLA wasn't very aggressive against the pass last year.  They were effective, but they didn't register a lot of pressure on quarterbacks.  They didn't get a sack on UVA (partly because in one instance Greyson Lambert managed to heave the ball into a defender's hands as a sack-avoidance tactic, but still.)  Plus most of their sack-masters graduated, the only returning threat being linebacker Deon Hollins.

Matt Johns did have something figured out against this defense last year, though.  I expect he'll still have time to operate; the Bruins lack a proven pass-rush threat from the front three (or four.)  If this game is going to go anywhere good, Johns has to be sharp all day long.  UVA's pass offense - with Lambert at the helm, mostly - generated most of UCLA's scoring last year.  The Bruins will definitely take advantage of mistakes, and the run game will be of little help, so the only path to victory here is for Johns to make none.

-- UCLA run offense vs. UVA run defense

(all stats 2014)

Top backs:
Paul Perkins: 251 carries, 1,575 yards, 9 TDs
Nate Starks: 31 carries, 141 yards, 2 TDs

UCLA offense:
209.54 yards/game, 4.89 yards/attempt
34th of 128 (national), 2nd of 12 (Pac-12)

UVA defense:
120.67 yards/game, 3.36 yards/attempt
19th of 128 (national), 4th of 14 (ACC)

UCLA loses a major dimension to their run game with the graduation of Brett Hundley.  It doesn't make a lot of difference in comparing to last year; the Hoos bottled up Hundley quite well and their doing so was what kept them in the game.  Without Hundley, UCLA will have to open up the depth chart a bit because Paul Perkins, workhorse that he is, won't be carrying the ball 500 times, and Josh Rosen isn't going to get those carries.

Perkins, though, is a tough customer.  He'll get a whole bunch of carries, and runs behind a very experienced offensive line.  Four starters return along the line for UCLA, most especially center Jake Brendel, who's a fifth-year senior and has only missed one start in all the games his team has played the past three years.  Perkins was effective in last year's game, averaging five yards a pop against UVA's perfectly good run defense.  It may help that the Hoos can just gear up to stop him and not worry about the quarterback, but UCLA is happy to put strength on strength here.  It won't be spectacular; Perkins can break an occasional big one, but most games his longest run was like 15 yards.  But he's certainly a test for a reloaded linebacker corps.

-- UCLA pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

(all stats 2014)

Quarterback:
Josh Rosen: (no stats)

Top receivers:
Jordan Payton: 67 rec., 954 yards, 7 TDs
Devin Fuller: 59 rec., 447 yards, 1 TD
Thomas Duarte: 28 rec., 540 yards, 4 TDs

UCLA offense:
258.3 yards/game, 7.7 yards/attempt
38th of 128 (national), 5th of 12 (Pac-12)

UVA defense:
232.5 yards/game, 7.1 yards/attempt
71st of 128 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)

Interesting to see what happens here.  Josh Rosen was probably recruiting's biggest deal last year, as a no-shitter of a five-star QB.  He's being handed the keys to an offense that doesn't need much of a spark.  Besides that veteran offensive line, UCLA returns receivers galore.  Jordan Payton's stats speak for themselves up there, and the Bruins have multiple big play threats.  Thomas Duarte averaged almost 20 yards a catch last year, and three different receivers - Payton, Devin Fuller, and Eldridge Massington - had catches of at least 80 yards.

I've seen lots of UVA fans with a really simplistic approach to this: "Oh, he's a freshman, we'll just get some heat on him and rattle him."  It's not going to work quite like that.  Tenuta will certainly try, and probably succeed at times, but Rosen isn't the starter by just default, and most of our own pass rush from last year has hit the road too.

The good news is that all these returning receivers means they're the same receivers UVA covered with some success last year.  Payton burned the UVA defense with eight catches, and the Bruins pulled off some big plays, but UVA isolated those plays and they accounted for most of UCLA's passing yards.  And there is something to be said for the fact that it's a freshman and not a senior looking for the open guy.  All in all, I see this as a pretty balanced matchup.  UVA has a deep enough secondary to cope with the weapons UCLA brings to the field, and UCLA's line should be able to cope with the UVA pass rush.

-- Favorability ratings

(on a scale from 0 to 10 - the higher the better)

UVA run offense: 2.5
UVA pass offense: 4.5
UVA run defense: 6
UVA pass defense: 5

Average: 4.5

-- Outlook

UVA is a 20-point underdog, which sounds like a hell of a lot.  And it is, but there's a catch, too - last year, they were 21-point underdogs at home.  That's a seven-point swing in the right direction when you figure in the assumed three-point margin for the home team.

Then you have the London factor, which actually is a positive for UVA early in the season.  September is his month, and most of UVA's best wins have happened in the first month of the season.  That's a damning thing to say 11 months of the year and a pretty good thing when you're actually in September.  Is it enough to overcome the talent UCLA brings to the table?  Probably not.  They're also on the road, facing one of the Pac-12's top offenses and a defense pretty well-equipped to handle their own attack.  This game will be very interesting, but not quite interesting enough., and UCLA pulls away in the second half.

Final score: UCLA 27, UVA 14

-- Rest of the ACC

North Carolina vs. South Carolina - Thurs. 6:00 - First game of the I-A season.

Wake Forest vs. Elon - Thurs. 7:00 - Fighting Christians vs. Demon Deacons is exactly why that school should still be called the Fighting Christians.

Georgia Tech vs. Alcorn State - Thurs. 7:30 - Eh.

Duke @ Tulane - Thurs. 9:30 - People who say Duke "schedules for success" forget that they do that because they have to drop down to Tulane before they find a school that will give them a home-and-home.

Syracuse vs. Rhode Island - Fri. 7:00 - Would make a much better basketball matchup.

Clemson vs. Wofford - 12:30 - Clemson smash.

Boston College vs. Maine - 1:00 - Would make a much better hockey matchup.

Pittsburgh vs. Youngstown State - 1:00 - There's a Rust Belt joke here somewhere, but I'm not going to be the one to make it.

Louisville vs. Auburn - 3:30 - Games like this - in the Georgia Dome - are why Louisville was so keen on joining the ACC - and why the southern portion of the conference was so keen on picking them over UConn.

Miami vs. Bethune-Cookman - 6:00 - Eh again.

NC State vs. Troy - 6:00 - Eh one more time.

Florida State vs. Texas State - 8:00 - Eh yet again boy I can't wait til UVA schedules these teams all the time can you.

Virginia Tech vs. Ohio State - Monday 8:00 - The Hokies get the chance to relive the greatest win in program history.