weekend review

Of the big four sports played in North America, as well as some of the next-tier ones like soccer and lacrosse, baseball is easily the most structured.  That's why it lends itself so well to advanced statistics.  That's also why it's the most prone to bizarrity; in a more free-flowing game like hockey or basketball, there's less of a structure to break free of, which means there's less opportunity for something nutty to happen.  And usually when it does, it's because of the officials.

So you get games like Saturday's against UNC.  It's impressive how fast a pitchers' duel turned into a slugfest.  Whit Mayberry did a great job in five innings of starting, needing only about 60 pitches and moving very efficiently.  Nathan Kirby was great for two innings; unfortunately, he pitched in three, with the wheels coming off in the eighth.  (He wasn't the only one, though; the boys in Carolina blue fell apart at exactly the same time.  And I was impressed in the confidence the coaches put in Kirby, having him pitch through some tough situations in a very tight game.)

Thankfully, UVA scoring runs and then UNC giving them back wasn't the ultimate story.  Carolina boneheadedness was.  UVA's 11th-inning rally started to bear fruit when UNC tried to get the lead runner at third on a sacrifice bunt, and Colin Moran biffed the throw, which of course moved everyone up a bag.  That's how the 11th started; it ended when Skye Bolt hit a deep drive that Mike Papi caught against the wall (saving at least a double), and for whatever reason, the pinch-runner on first never tagged up.  He was nowhere to be found when the ball arrived back at the base to double him off and polish off the game.

You can argue for a while whose fault that was (and we have, believe me) but since none of the replays show where he ended up, it's all speculation.  My guess: he came in thinking there were two outs (there was one) and that Papi's catch was the end of the inning.  And therefore went tearing around the basepaths at the crack of the bat with home plate on the mind.  If that's the case, I blame the first-base coach; I mean, I used to kind of internally roll my eyes in my baseball playing days, when I'd reach first and the coach there would remind me how many outs.  But there's a reason they do that.  I doubt it happened this time.

So with Thursday's game being a carryover of the scorching-bat attack from the Duke series and the VCU midweek game, and UVA scoring 10 runs on Carolina's ace Kent Emanuel (the more-than-heavy implication on the Sabre board is that Emanuel was tipping all his offspeed pitches) the only thing that kept UVA from a sweep was one really lousy inning on Friday.

It's really not that bad a deal, though.  If you buy that there are five real competitors for the ACC title, any of which could win the tourney, UVA is in the tourney pool that has only two of them; us and FSU.  UNC has to deal with both Clemson and NC State.  On the other hand, we do have the only two teams that beat us in a series this year (that would be the two Techs.)

Some other notes in brief:

-- Nate Irving moves like a sloth in molasses, which makes it all the more exciting when he does things like beat out a bunt and score from second on a single to left.

-- Kyle Crockett was absolutely devastating on Thursday.  In retrospect it's a shame we used him Thursday, because he got shelled Friday and might not have if he hadn't pitched the day before, but man: when his curve is working, left-handers look like total dipshits against it.  And let's face it: we all know UNC has a nasty good lineup, and a six-run lead isn't totally safe.  As we sort of learned on Saturday when the Heels overcame a three-run deficit and nearly blew past a four-run one.  So no bagging on BOC for using Crockett to "save" a huge lead in game one.

-- Colin Moran won the ACC POY award over Mike Papi.  I am not sure whether to be enraged or not.  Papi probably had one of the best seasons ever for a non-winner.  I mean, hello, national OBP leader.  (Then again: national RBI leader Moran.)  On the one hand, Papi was probably penalized for not playing the whole season.  He wasn't even a starter at the beginning and sat about 10-12 games entirely.  This is probably part of the reason Joe McCarthy won freshman of the year instead of Skye Bolt.  So in that respect it evens out.  And it wasn't the media voting, it was the coaches, so for once we can't blame Caulton Tudor and his ilk.

On the other hand, the coaches couldn't even agree on which third baseman should be on the all-ACC first team; Moran shared that honor with VT's Chad Pinder.  If he's not definitively the best at his position, is he really the best overall player in the conference?

Oh well; we don't really know if Papi was "definitively the best" outfielder either, and he might well not have been.  Anyway, UVA was well represented on the honors list: Papi, Reed Gragnani, Nick Howard, and Kyle Crockett all made the first team; McCarthy and Branden Cogswell the second team, and UVA took home FOY and COY honors while UNC took pitcher and player of the year.  Of 36 slots on the honorees list, 15 are filled with Hoos or Heels.  Nice especially to see Gragnani honored after a career spent mostly on the injured list.

-- A few other bragfacts from the ACC release on this honors stuff: this is BOC's third COY award in four years and fourth of his UVA tenure.  During that tenure, UVA has only failed to reach 40 wins twice; we got 39 those times.

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-- Clifton Richardson's impending transfer is definitely one of the more disappointing ones of late.  I think pretty much all of us had high hopes for his future.  It doesn't hurt the depth too badly, but Richardson had more potential than either of the backs in front of him on the chart.  Even if Taquan Mizzell was likely going to ensure Richardson never hit the top of the food chain.  It leaves basically four backs on the roster for 2013, all of whom will almost certainly see the field at some point.  Kevin Parks and Mizzell likely hold the inside track on the top two slots, and Khalek Shepherd and Kye Morgan will at a bare minimum get garbage time - though probably a little more than that.

-- An article that casts some doubt on the future, as-yet-nonexistent ACC Network.  Consolation prize if the ACC Network falls through: more cash from ESPN, quite probably meant as a way to ensure the viability of the conference since it's really in ESPN's best interest for the ACC to exist.  The article says that works out to about $2 million more per school per year, which after a little math and some assumptions means about $336 million total.  So what I hear from that is that if ESPN can buy out the necessary rights from the other media entities that own them for less than $336 million, it's network city.

-- The men's tennis team plays in its third straight national championship matchup tomorrow against UCLA.  A win would give UVA its first ever title, and extend our national championship streak to five years (UVA has won a national title in something every year since 2009) as well as give us a chance at our first multiple-title year since 1993.

series preview: North Carolina

Date/Time: Thu./Sat., May 16-18; 6:00, 7:00, 2:00

TV: ESPN3

Record against the Heels: 98-175-4

Last meeting: UNC 3-0 over UVA (1-2, 2-6, 3-5); 4/13-4/15/12, Charlottesville

Last game: UVA 17, VCU 3 (5/14); UNC 2, App.St. 0 (5/14)

Last weekend: UVA 3-0 over Duke (6-5, 17-8, 14-6); GT 2-1 over UNC (4-5, 3-1, 8-9)

National rankings:

Baseball America: UVA #7; UNC #3
Collegiate Baseball: UVA #7; UNC #2
NCBWA: UVA #7; UNC #4
Perfect Game: UVA #6; UNC #2
Coaches: UVA #7; UNC #2
Composite: UVA #6; UNC #2

North Carolina lineup:

C: Brian Holberton (.310-9-29)
1B: Cody Stubbs (.365-7-65)
2B: Mike Zolk (.300-2-25)
SS: Michael Russell (.304-2-27)
3B: Colin Moran (.379-13-78)
LF: Parks Jordan (.281-1-24)
CF: Chaz Frank (.293-1-27)
RF: Skye Bolt (.391-6-41)
DH: Landon Lassiter (.331-1-23)

Lineup notes: In UNC's ideal hitting world, that's who they'd start.  Skye Bolt's injury, from which he returned against Appy State this week, forced Holberton to go to the outfield.  In his absence, Matt Roberts (.167-2-16) and Korey Dunbar (.163-0-3) split catching duties.  Obviously they're both atrocious hitters, and will probably be used mainly as defensive replacements.  This is a lefty-heavy lineup, and both are right-handers, so pinch-hitting against our lefty relievers isn't out of the question either, nor, I suppose, is starting them against our lefty starters.  Utility OF Alex Raburn (.200-0-5) is a right-handed pinch-hit option as well.

Pitching probables:

Thursday: LHP Brandon Waddell (4-1, 3.88, 69 K) vs. LHP Kent Emanuel (9-2, 2.03, 73 K)
Friday: LHP Scott Silverstein (8-1, 3.21, 53 K) vs. RHP Benton Moss (8-1, 2.96, 74 K)
Saturday: TBA vs. LHP Hobbs Johnson (4-0, 1.99, 54 K)

North Carolina has been more or less the undisputed best team in the ACC all season, with only one remaining challenger to the throne: Virginia.  The Hoos can usurp the Heels' spot atop the conference with a sweep this weekend.  Unlikely, of course, but possible.  Sweep, and UVA takes the #1 seed in the ACC tourney; otherwise, the #3 seed awaits.

-- UVA at bat

UNC will send a parade of outstanding pitchers to the hill this weekend, whom they've relied on all year.  Kent Emanuel has had three excellent years at UNC, and is going to go in the first round because he's a very rare breed of pitcher: a big, tall lefty who's filled out his frame and is still upping the velocity on his fastball.  That was a decent-at-best pitch as a freshman that's worked its way into the low 90s; additionally, he's a four-pitch guy with a terrific changeup and great control.  Emanuel pitches deep into games; he's racked up four complete games and averages over eight innings an appearance.  Basically, he pitches into the ninth more often than not.

Friday will be hard-throwing, beanpole right-hander Benton Moss, who was a freshman all-American last year.  His fastball is mid-90s stuff - and that was coming out of high school.  He, too, has a nice arsenal of pitches, and is more of a strikeout fiend than Emanuel is, averaging over one per inning.  But he also brings a little less polish and control.  Finally there's Hobbs Johnson, a lefty more in the typical mold of southpaws, with a more moderate velocity on his fastball and an array of pitches that he must command well in order to be successful.  Johnson has been good at keeping hitters from making solid contact, but walks more than he should and runs up high pitch counts; he's pulled, on average, in the fifth inning.

UNC's bullpen will put UVA's reliever-eating skills to the test.  Everyone who might be expected to show up on the hill has an opponents' BA below .200, except for closer Trent Thornton at .201.  Big exception there.  The one potential chink in the armor is that they're all righties; the likelihood of the Heels bringing a southpaw out of the pen is minimal.

-- UNC at bat

There's very little point in analyzing the ups and downs of the UNC lineup, because there aren't a whole lot of downs to go off of.  Colin Moran is legitimately one of the elite players in the whole country; his 78 RBIs are tops in the nation and the pace that he's on would put the major league record to shame if applied over 162 games.

Not far behind him, though, is Cody Stubbs, whose 21 doubles are best in the ACC and near the top in the nation as well.  I'd call those two the top threats, with third going to freshman outfielder Skye Bolt, hitting .391 and recently healed from a foot injury.  On the basepaths, it's Bolt, Chaz Frank, and Michael Russell presenting the biggest steal threats.

Now that we know we don't have Brandon Cogswell, it's safe to guess that the Saturday TBA on the mound is as much about BOC deciding whether he wants Nick Howard in the infield or on the mound as it is about sorting out the postseason rotation.

-- Outlook

This is a meeting of the ACC's two best-hitting teams; the difference is that UNC has a starting rotation that's more or less elite and backs it up with a bullpen.  UVA can match up in the bullpen department but not many teams in the country can match the rotation.  I think the Hoos, with their very patient approach, should be able to find some success against Hobbs Johnson and possibly Benton Moss as well.  That doesn't translate automatically to a win, of course, but we can at least point out that the Heels won't be invincible.  The other matchup in UVA's favor is the heavy emphasis on left-handed hitting that the Heels' lineup uses, against UVA's lefty starting pitchers and relievers like Kyle Crockett.

That said, this is obviously a tough series.  Could UVA pull out a 2-1 win?  Absolutely.  More likely is a 2-1 loss; I'll be fall-off-my-chair surprised if either team gets a sweep.

weekend review

Note: day late due to me traveling

Mission accomplished.  Baseball-wise, the weekend couldn't have gone better for the Hoos.  (Actually in most other respects too, but more later.)  A sweep against Duke was accomplished via the use of fiery bats as UVA scored 37 runs during the weekend's three games.  Friday looked a little iffy with Duke's starter keeping the bats off balance for eight innings.  The Hoos scratched out only five hits on him.  But if there's one thing UVA has done well this season, it's ground relief pitchers into a fine paste and spread them over a nice blown save sandwich.  This was the fate of closer Andrew Istler, who faced seven batters and got just one of them out.

The rest of the weekend, they decided not to wait for the bullpen before they got out the beating implements.  UVA did an awfully nice favor for its fans in not making them sit around for nine innings anxiously hoping things would turn out OK.  Oh, I guess Sunday's game was kinda close for a time.  But the problem with letting UVA beat your starter up is that it forces you to put in relievers, and eventually the Hoos find one they like.

The offensive outburst was proof UVA has the depth to survive an injury, as it was announced before the series that SS Brandon Cogswell will miss some time with a broken finger.  Definitely the UNC series and ACC tournament and possibly (or probably) more.  The lineup solution was to slide Nick Howard over to short and place Kenny Towns at third; when Howard pitched, John LaPrise took over at short.  Obviously, the offense didn't miss a beat.

(On the plus side for Duke, they did validate their decision to pull Drew Van Orden from the starting rotation, as he gave up five runs in two-thirds of an inning in relief on Saturday.  So, you know, the managing decisions went alright.)

Also going alright: the play around the rest of the ACC.  Clemson was idle, but UVA's sweep of Duke put them three games ahead of the Tigers, and having won the series against them earlier, that's a wrap as far as Clemson is concerned.  NC State lost their series to FSU 2-1, which put them 3.5 games back of UVA, another wrap.  The upshot is that UVA is guaranteed of finishing no lower than #3 in the ACC, and guaranteed as well of avoiding UNC in pool play in the ACC tourney.  UNC also lost their series (to Georgia Tech) but UVA still has to sweep the Heels in order to win the division; a 2-1 series win would leave UVA with a winning percentage of .733, and UNC .750.  In the standings, that's a tie as far as "games back" are concerned, but ACC rules specify winning percentage.  UNC has two fewer games because not every school manages rain as well as UVA, but one of the canceled games was against Boston College so it's not like they were really at risk of losing.  Still, it kind of sucks for us.  So just sweep 'em, then.  If we win the series 2-1 you can always point out to UNC fans you know that we didn't get to play the unbelievably horrible Eagles.

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-- The weekend was successful elsewhere too, as the crew team brought home the school's fifth ACC championship of the season.  With NC State upsetting favorite FSU in the softball championship (FSU allowed just one run the whole tourney.... but failed to score in the championship game) that means it's guaranteeed that no school will have more titles than UVA this year.  Only one is left to be decided (baseball) and FSU has a decent shot to win it, but can only tie UVA in total championships for 2012-13.  Anyone else and we get the crown outright.

-- Mike Papi won UVA's first player of the week award in the ACC this year - sort of.  He had to share the honor with FSU's D.J. Stewart.  I think that means I can still say we're somehow winning this season without any good players.

-- Virginia Tech is adding a women's golf team.  I'm weird, so my first thought was "hmm, it looks like they have extra cash, I wonder if a men's lacrosse team is in their future."  I'd like to think so, so that we can trounce them every year in something new, but golf teams are cheap to run and almost never have more than ten players (and usually fewer.)  So no, it probably doesn't mean they're so flush with cash that men's lacrosse is on the way.

-- The ACC meetings are ongoing, and the most interesting topic will be football scheduling.  Specifically, should we go to nine games or stay at eight?  Probably they'll stay at eight, and we've been through this before once already with the conference deciding to move to nine and then changing their mind a few months later.  Just make it nine already.  Also, they'll discuss playing some games overseas to "expand the brand."  No sense in that.  For the pros it's one thing since leagues like the NBA already have international appeal and might be able to get a TV contract in Europe.  As well, the NFL is already publicly thought to want to have a team in London or somewhere.  Neither are ever going to happen for the ACC, so why waste money flying teams out across the pond?

series preview: Wake Forest

Date/Time: Sat-Mon, 4/7-4/9; 4:00, 1:00, 7:00

TV: Monday on ESPNUVA; first two games on UVA live stream

Record against the Deacons: 71-84

Last matchup: UVA 13, WF 1 (5/25/11); Durham, NC (ACC tournament)

Last game: UVA 15, JMU 5 (4/4); UNC 4, WF 3 (4/1)

Last weekend: NCSt 2-1 over UVA (1-5, 5-2, 6-7); UNC 2-1 over WF (7-6, 3-7, 3-4)

National rankings:

Baseball America: UVA unranked; WF unranked
Collegiate Baseball: UVA unranked; WF unranked
NCBWA: UVA #29; WF unranked
Perfect Game: UVA #48; WF unranked
Coaches: UVA unranked; WF unranked

Opposing blogs: Blogger So Dear

Wake Forest lineup:

C: Brett Armour (.272-1-9)
1B: Carlos Lopez (.336-8-35)
2B: Conor Keniry (.344-0-12)
3B: Mark Rhine (.310-1-12)
LF: Evan Stephens (.333-1-14)
CF: Mac Williamson (.272-9-25)
RF: James Harris (.188-1-11)
DH: Charlie Morgan (.274-3-22)

Pitching probables:

Saturday: LHP Scott Silverstein (2-3, 2.68, 33 Ks) vs. LHP Tim Cooney (3-2, 4.06, 44 Ks)
Sunday: RHP Branden Kline (4-2, 3.09, 45 Ks) vs. RHP Justin Van Grouw (1-3, 5.35, 29 Ks)
Monday: RHP Artie Lewicki (1-1, 4.31, 25 Ks) vs. LHP Brian Holmes (5-0, 1.87, 44 Ks)

Happy Opening Day!  It is for me, anyway, as this is being typed while watching the Tigers take on the Red Sox in (finally) a game that matters.

The end of the winter baseball drought is apropos; it's been a long time since the major leagues played games that matter, but it's been even longer since the last time UVA and Wake Forest got together for a baseball series.  We did play them once last year in the ACC tournament, and the game ended via mercy rule (owing to the necessity of playing a lot of games on one day in one ballpark) and no doubt the Deacons remember that.  Otherwise, it's been since 2009.  March of '09, to be exact, when the Hoos swept the ACC opening series by a combined score of 47-13.  But this is a much better Wake Forest team than you might remember.

This weekend, by the way, is one of those with the schedule bumped a day backwards for TV.  It won't start til Saturday, and Monday's game is on ESPNU.

-- UVA at the plate

I suspect Wake Forest of being one of those teams that slides their ace to the back of the rotation in order to improve their chances of snagging a win.  Evidence: Sunday (Monday) starter Brian Holmes has every statistic in his favor and tossed a no-hitter against Marshall earlier this year.  I don't think they're bad enough anymore that they should have to do that, but whatever.  The national TV audience will probably see Wake's best shot.

Saturday and Monday, UVA will see a couple of tough-to-hit lefties, each with 44 strikeouts.  Both can be worked for a walk, though, too.  Tim Cooney is considered to have the best stuff in the Wake rotation, with a four-pitch arsenal, and Holmes throws a heavy fastball that's been hard to hit.  On Sunday, the only right-hander in the rotation takes the mound, and this is the day the Hoos have the best chance of teeing off; Justin Van Grouw has been maddeningly inconsistent this season.

So has the Wake bullpen.  It's been very up and down.  Closer Michael Dimock has eight saves but a 4.50 ERA.  He's also struck out 26 in 24 innings.

From the UVA side of things, Reed Gragnani didn't play at all against JMU this week, and if it's anything to do with his nagging injuries he's been dealing with this year, then it's unlikely he'll play this weekend, too.  With two southpaws on the hill, lefty Mike Papi also might not see much time.  (Wake has practically nothing but righties in the pen, so even if Papi doesn't start, he'll get some PH chances.)  This means basically that the outfield will again be Fisher-Shifflett-Harrington (and those corner guys have been swinging the bat very, very well lately) with a freshman DHing.  Last week we saw a lot of Brandon Cogswell, but he's a lefty; Nick Howard might be the guy this week.

-- UVA in the field

The preseason book on Wake Forest was that their hitting amounted to a big pile of baked ass.  Forget the book.  Wake's hitters have been very solid, 1 through 8 - the exception being James Harris, batting .188.

The top guys are the same as the ones who did all the hitting last year: Carlos Lopez and Mac Williamson.  Wake's hitting has been a rising tide lifting all their boats, and these two are no exception.  Lopez is batting .336 and slugging .645; he and Williamson already have eight and nine home runs, respectively.

Last year, 2B Conor Keniry batted .196; this year, he's Wake's leading hitter at .344.  Mark Rhine, who's taken over at third for Lopez (who's now at first) was a .170 hitter; he's at .310 now.  In all, it's a solid, well-rounded lineup that's a far cry from the anemic piddlers that trotted to the plate last year, and the funny thing is, it's mostly the same guys.

UVA must also watch out for Wake on the basepaths; they've been successful on 44 of 56.  With UVA's catchers allowing more than 70% of basestealers to succeed, that's not a good sign.  Three players in particular are a concern: Williamson, Keniry, and Pat Blair.  Blair, the Deacs' shortstop, leads the team with 21 walks.  Hoos pitchers have gotten occasionally careless, at times forgetting about baserunners, and that can't happen this weekend.

-- Outlook

Sunday provides an interesting matchup, with perhaps our best pitcher against definitely Wake's worst.  So that's "interesting" in the sense of "awesome."  The actual interesting games will bookend the series, especially Monday.  As in, it'll be interesting to see if Lewicki and the bullpen can match up against Wake's ace.

This makes Saturday's game absolutely vital.  The Hoos must knock Cooney off the hill.  UVA should be able to get the Sunday win, which means winning or losing on Saturday is the difference between trying for the sweep, or hoping for the series win against Wake's best pitcher.  This is a much-improved Wake team from years past, but even so, it's not a series the Hoos can afford to lose and maintain the goal of earning a regional 2 seed.